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This Thesis Has Been Submitted in Fulfilment of the Requirements for a Postgraduate Degree (E.G This thesis has been submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for a postgraduate degree (e.g. PhD, MPhil, DClinPsychol) at the University of Edinburgh. Please note the following terms and conditions of use: • This work is protected by copyright and other intellectual property rights, which are retained by the thesis author, unless otherwise stated. • A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. • This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the author. • The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the author. • When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given. An investigation of unconscious precognition in the visual attention system David W Smith Doctor of Philosophy Department of Psychology University of Edinburgh 2012 1 ABSTRACT Precognition can be defined as an anomalous correlation between current cognitive activity and a future event. Using behavioural and physiological measures, a number of previous studies have reported evidence for unconscious precognition during a variety of task conditions. The current thesis presents five experiments that were designed to test for unconscious precognition in the visual attention system while participants were engaged in a short term visual memory task. Each trial consisted of a study and test phase. In the study phase, participants were required to memorise an array of four stimuli while their eye movements were recorded. After a brief retention interval, a probe stimulus was presented for a yes/no recognition test. Two conditions were employed and were randomly determined. In the old condition, the probe was a stimulus viewed during study, termed the target. In the new condition, the probe was a novel stimulus. Experiments tested for the presence of precognition by examining whether there was a difference in the degree to which visual attention was allocated to items during the study phase of old and new trials. Two further studies were also carried out involving simulations that aimed to establish the extent to which a previously described artefact, termed the expectation bias, may impact on the results. Experiment 1 suggested that participants spent more time attending to target stimuli in old compared to new trials, a result that appeared to provide evidence for precognition. However, the data was considered unreliable due to inadequate randomisation. An exact replication of Experiment 1 was carried out in Experiment 2 with adequate randomisation, but failed to find evidence for precognition. Experiment 3A was a further attempt to replicate the preliminary results of Experiment 1 using more extensive randomisation procedures while Experiment 3B explored the potential role of the probe stimulus in generating a precognitive effect. However, no support for the precognitive hypothesis was found in either experiment. A fully balanced design was employed in Experiment 4 in order to control for potential confounds such as position and saliency effects. The results supported the precognitive hypothesis and suggested that less attention was allocated to targets in the old condition. An exploratory analysis also examined the relationship between several standardised stimulus variables and the apparent precognitive effect observed in Experiment 4. The results revealed a suggestive relationship between the size of the effect and item 2 ratings of familiarity and visual complexity. Simulations of an expectation bias in Experiments 5A and 5B together with post-hoc examination of the data from the current series of experiments suggest that this artefact is not a plausible explanation for the observed effects. The thesis ends with a discussion of several methodological issues that may impact on both the interpretation of positive results and the conclusions that may be reached from this body of data as a whole. Finally, suggestions for further work are made. 3 Acknowledgements I would like to thank Caroline Watt for her guidance and patience as well as members of the KPU for their valuable feedback during my time as a PhD student. I would also like to acknowledge the financial support of the Denwyn Dobby Scholarship fund for making this research possible. A special thanks to my parents and my wife, Cindy Coleman, for giving me encouragement and supporting my decision to take the road less travelled. 4 Declaration I declare that this thesis was composed by myself, that the work contained herein is my own except where explicitly stated otherwise in the text, and that this work has not been submitted for any other degree or professional qualification except as specified. --------------------------------------------------------- (David Smith) 5 Table of Contents CHAPTER 1 - GENERAL INTRODUCTION ................................................................... 11 Extra-sensory Experiences ............................................................................................ 11 Outline of the thesis ........................................................................................................ 15 CHAPTER 2 - LABORATORY STUDIES OF PRECOGNITION ................................. 16 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 16 Studies of intentional precognition using behavioural measures ............................. 17 Studies of intentional precognition using physiological measures .......................... 25 Studies of non-intentional precognition using behavioural measures ..................... 27 Studies of non-intentional precognition using physiological measures .................. 33 Summary of laboratory studies ..................................................................................... 39 A role for attention in precognition? .............................................................................. 40 CHAPTER 3: TESTING FOR PRECOGNITION USING EYE TRACKING TECHNIQUES ..................................................................................................................... 42 Development of the current paradigm .......................................................................... 42 Description of the general hypothesis .......................................................................... 47 Dependent variables in the current paradigm ............................................................. 47 Total Dwell Time .......................................................................................................... 47 First Fixation Time ....................................................................................................... 48 Experiment 1: An initial test of the paradigm .............................................................. 48 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 48 Methods ........................................................................................................................ 49 Participants ............................................................................................................... 49 Stimuli........................................................................................................................ 49 General stimulus characteristics ....................................................................... 49 Array stimuli .......................................................................................................... 50 Probe stimuli ........................................................................................................ 51 Apparatus ................................................................................................................. 52 Procedure ................................................................................................................. 52 Trial procedure ..................................................................................................... 52 6 Detection of fixations and saccades ................................................................. 54 Randomisation ..................................................................................................... 54 Hypotheses .................................................................................................................. 55 Planned Analyses ........................................................................................................ 56 Results .......................................................................................................................... 56 Data Exclusions ....................................................................................................... 56 Reaction Times and Response Accuracy ........................................................... 57 General viewing behaviour .................................................................................... 57 All stimuli ............................................................................................................... 57 Targets vs. decoys .............................................................................................. 58 Randomisation check ............................................................................................
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