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IISIA Monthly Report, December 2008

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IISIA Monthly Report, December 2008 IISIA Monthly・Report Institute for International Strategy and Information Analysis, Inc. 1 IISIA Monthly・Report Institute for International Strategy and Information Analysis, Inc. Table of Contents Synopsis 2 The Latest Move in the Intelligence and the Military Technology 3 ～The Move of the Obama Administration’s Policies Seen in the Intelligence Human Networks～ Takeo Harada, (CEO, IISIA) 2 IISIA Monthly・Report Institute for International Strategy and Information Analysis, Inc. Takeo Harada1 The Latest Move in the Intelligence and the Military Technology ～The Move of the Obama Administration’s Policies Seen in the Intelligence Human Networks～ ●Introduction In November 2008, Barack Obama was elected as the 44th U. S. president. And now, the global focus is on how the coming Obama administration, which is to be inaugurated on January 20, 2009, will decide policies, especially on the economy in the midst of the endless financial meltdown. IISIA presented our new predictive scenario titled Lumiere2 on October 17, in which we mentioned presidential candidate Obama was likely to be elected as the U. S. president. We argued so, because it is quite probable that the U. S. establishment considered that Obama should be more convenient for them to develop the future situation. Expectation for Obama, who has advocated “Change” and finally become the head man of the U. S, is mounting even after the election. In this paper, however, we argue what the real ruling class of the U. S. is planning behind the scene to develop and achieve after the burst of the bubble of Obama’s popularity as well as the impact of their move, from the viewpoint that has never been discussed in major media (at least in Japan). We analyze the Obama team in terms of his intelligence network. If any dynamic movement worthy of attention as a “Change” is observed around the network, it can be a significant material to judge that the Obama administration will create a new world. On the contrary, if the Obama administration depends on the conventional intelligence network in the U. S., it is possible to say that the administration will never be able to change anything, or will have no intention to change things. In fact, conclusively, the Obama administration depends on the conventional intelligence network in the U. S. In particular, the network includes Hilary Clinton and 1 Mr. Takeo Harada is CEO of Institute for International Strategy and Information Analysis, Inc. He had previously served as a member of the Foreign Ministry of Japan and has published more than a dozen books on International Economy and Politics both in Japan and Germany. 2 Takeo Harada’s article –Lumiere- written in Japanese is available at the following website: http://www.haradatakeo.com/wmd/sO0gPMoR3j/iisia_lumiere.pdf 3 IISIA Monthly・Report Institute for International Strategy and Information Analysis, Inc. many important people who made significant commitment in the Clinton administration. In other words, it is obvious that “Change,” the slogan the Obama has advocated, is just propaganda. In this article, we examine this in extenso based on the analytical method of open source intelligence. ●Facts Analyzed from Private Intelligence Human Networks There is one thing that must not be missed when you discuss the U. S. intelligence sector – the fact that right after the collapse of the Soviet Union and communist regimes in eastern Europe in the early 1990s president Clinton, the first baby-boomer generation president, ordered extensive downsizing of the manpower both in the army and intelligence institutions amid calls for “the end of the Cold War structure.”3 Actually, the downsizing process had been already begun during the Bush administration, and the CIA had been forced to reduce 20 % of its manpower for example. The following Clinton administration shifted the focus of American power from the use of armed might and spy activities to developing technology and global trades so that the initial target of the privatization of governmental institutions and reduction of governmental functions was the intelligence institutions.4 In other words, since then the “Clinton network” has been developed and deepened around the private intelligence industry. When observing the intelligence network around the president-elect Obama in this context, we can find the very central people who founded private intelligence related firms to develop the industry when a “sea change” came at the time of the privatization of intelligence during the Clinton administration. Firstly, please take a look at the figure showing the intelligence network of the president-elect Obama, created by Intelligence Online5, one of the most prominent private intelligence agencies6 in France. In the following part, we see the people of private intelligence agencies who supported Obama during the presidential campaign in terms of intelligence.7 3 Tim Shorrock, -Spies for Hire: The Secret World of Intelligence Outsourcing-, 2008, p. 85. 4 See the previous comment 5 http://www.intelligenceonline.com 6 For further information about private intelligence agencies, please refer to the following. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_intelligence_agency 7 Needless to say, the advisors in the presidential campaign are not promised to be automatically given a post in the coming administration. (Intelligence Online put a note on this point too.) Since essentially the Intelligence sector never discloses all of their information and resources, however, they can have some influence in the administration even though they do not have posts. Rather, as the intelligence network will be “invisible” after 4 IISIA Monthly・Report Institute for International Strategy and Information Analysis, Inc. ＜Figure1-1：The Obama Campaign's Intelligence Advisors list＞ Source： Intelligenceonline8 The four people (John Brenna, Art Brown, Jack Devine and Robert Richer) have long experience in the industry, and now all of them have profound relationship with important private intelligence agencies in the U. S. This is not a coincidence. Actually, as mentioned earlier, it is CIA that was affected most by the big sea change of the privatization of intelligence agencies during the Clinton administration. Unlike in the Cold War era when they could produce a battle against communist regimes including the administration launches, it is very important to check the composition and key figures at the moment. 8http://www.intelligenceonline.com/detail/detail_articles/p_detail.asp?DOC_I_ID=50883928&Context=BOI&Conte xtInfos=&Service=GRA&CodeAffilie=A_INDIGO 5 IISIA Monthly・Report Institute for International Strategy and Information Analysis, Inc. the Soviet Union, there is a question of why the U. S. government has to keep supporting the intelligence sector financially. The people around the sector, therefore, consider that chances for them are delivered by lead the coming Obama administration into a situation that should be profoundly related to intelligence activities. That is, by analyzing what kind of business model the private intelligence agencies are developing will lead us to see probable intelligence policies of the Obama administration and sea changes in the market that will come accordingly. John Brennan9 is a highly experienced intelligence professional who worked at CIA for 25 years from 1980 through 2005. According to the Washington Post (December 12, 2005),10 he has developed his carrier mainly as a specialist of the Middle East. He worked at the U. S. embassy in Saudi Arabia “as a diplomat (an official of the Department of the State).” He began to study the Middle East at collage, spending a year at The Analysis Corp. President American University in Cairo in Egypt to study John Brennan Arabian. He served as deputy executive director Source： CNN HP of CIA and interim director of National Counterterrorism Center. As a businessperson in the intelligence community, since 2005 has served as CEO of The Analysis Corporation (TAC)11. Based in Mclean, Virginia, TAC has been awarded some $75m in government contracts since 2000, and it is said the customers include the Department of State and the FBI.12 9 See, for example, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_O._Brennan 10 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/11/AR2005121100910.html 11 http://www.theanalysiscorp.com/ 12 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Analysis_Corporation 6 IISIA Monthly・Report Institute for International Strategy and Information Analysis, Inc. Very interestingly, there was uproar about the fact that a TAC contractor tried to gain access to the personal record of Barack Obama in the midst of the presidential campaign.13 In January 2009, John Brennan donated 2,300 USD in total for Obama, and it was widely believed that he was for Obama. In March, however, it was revealed that a TAC contractor gained unauthorized access to the passport records for Obama and John McCain, and Hilary Clinton. Nevertheless, it is surprising that on November 16, Obama appointed John Brennan as the director of the intelligence department of in his transition team.14 The Passport is very important, which Art Brow, Control Risks Group, US can affect one’s life during his/her Office President travel. Brennan is the CEO of the organization whose contractor tried to Source: Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan gain unauthorized access at the HP governmental database, and it is improbable that he had no relation to the case. Nevertheless, he gained that important post in the transition team. It is possible to say that this shows the unshakable power of the intelligence network around John Brennan at its center. In terms of capital structure, TAC is a 100 % subsidiary of the U. S. branch of Global Strategy Group (GSG)15. When having a look at the website of GSG, you will notice that there is a relatively detailed explanation on their activities in politics in Colombia as one of their major works.16 According to the website, at the request of the Colombian government, they produced security policies against anti-government guerrillas and offered trainings for the government officials to prepare for attacks on infrastructures.
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