Performance Regimes and Marketing Policy Shifts Koen Pauwels1 Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth Dominique M. Hanssens UCLA Anderson School of Management December 3, 2004 1 Koen Pauwels is Assistant Professor, Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH 03755, Phone: +1603 646 1097, E-mail:
[email protected]. Dominique Hanssens is the Bud Knapp Professor of Marketing at the UCLA Anderson Graduate School of Management, 110 Westwood Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1481. Phone +1 310 825 4497, E-mail
[email protected]. The authors thank Marnik Dekimpe, Amit Joshi, Donald Lehmann, Natalie Mizik and Shijin Yoo for comments and Dennis Bender and Jorge Silva-Risso for providing the data used in the empirical analysis. Performance Regimes and Marketing Policy Shifts Abstract Year after year, managers in mature markets strive to improve their performance. When successful, they can expect to continue executing on an established marketing strategy. However, when the results are disappointing, a change or turnaround strategy may be called for in order to help performance get back on track. In such case, performance diagnostics are needed to identify turnarounds and to quantify the role of marketing actions in this process. This paper introduces rolling-window tests and performance barometers to analyze how strategic windows of performance growth and decline alternate with long periods of performance stability. Applying this framework to a rich marketing dataset, the authors identify and interpret transitions between stable and trending performance regimes, and assess marketing's power to induce performance turnaround. The empirical analysis shows that, even in mature markets, performance stability is not the only business scenario.