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The US-Japan-China Triangle: Shifting Power Balances in East Asia

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The US-Japan-China Triangle: Shifting Power Balances in East Asia Stjórnmálafræðideild MA-ritgerð í alþjóðasamskiptum The US-Japan-China Triangle: Shifting Power Balances in East Asia and the World Kristófer Hannesson Október 2009 Leiðbeinandi: Alyson Bailes Nemandi: Kristófer Hannesson Kennitala: 200882-4589 2 Abstract The three-way relationship between the United States, Japan and China in East Asia will shape the future of the region and China‘s quest for a rightful portion of power in East Asia and the world. The future regional status of Japan and the US depends on how they engage China – whether they do it unilaterally, bilaterally or multilaterally. The success or failure of those choices can in turn have significant influence on China's rise to eventual global power status. The three countries have been successful to various degrees in their bilateral relations, but significant challenges remain and new ones have emerged on all fronts. Furthermore, each corner of the triangle is facing a number of domestic and security policy challenges that will shape their status in the region going forward. The conclusion is that the triangular relationship and East Asia in general would benefit most if the US, Japan and China moved forward through a combination of bilateral and multilateral approaches including the search for common or compatible interests. For the US and Japan these methods present the best way to influence the paths China chooses and shape what kind of regional and global power it becomes in the future. For China they provide the best method to improve its image and reassure its neighbours in the region and beyond as China‘s leadership is set to play a more prominent and also a more connected role in both the regional and global balances of power. 3 Preface During my undergraduate study at the University of Iceland I got the opportunity to live and study in Japan for one year as an exchange student at Kansai Gaidai University. As my first experience of living abroad and in a different continent, the stay had a big impact on my world view and cemented my interest in the politics of Japan and other East Asian states. Of particular interest to me were the various disputes and topics of debate between Japan and its close neighbours. After returning to Iceland I wrote my BA thesis on the international disputes surrounding Japanese Prime Ministerial visits to the Yasukuni Shrine and decided to pursue an MA degree in International Relations. During the study I started to develop a more coherent understanding of the forces at work in East Asia and the importance (and complication) of the US-Japan- China triangle for the region and beyond. In particular I was interested in what sort of changes the shifting balance of power in East Asia might bring, and how the United States, Japan, and China might respond to this shift. Throughout my studies, and especially during the writing of this thesis, I have benefited greatly from the constant support and patience of my family. Various friends and colleagues also came to my aid from time to time and I would like to thank them for their input and support. In particular I would like to thank Alyson Bailes for her excellent guidance and invaluable input from the idea-phase all through to the completion of this thesis. This master thesis is the final assignment in the MA studies of International Relations at the University of Iceland. It accounts for 30 ECTS credits and the instructor was Alyson Bailes, Adjunct Lecturer at the University of Iceland. 4 Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 7 2. LIBERALISM, REALISM, AND THE BALANCE OF POWER ................................... 9 2.1 LIBERALISM ................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 REALISM ...................................................................................................................... 13 2.3 THE BALANCE OF POWER............................................................................................... 16 2.4 TODAY'S BALANCE OF POWER........................................................................................ 19 2.5 THEORETICAL CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................... 22 3. THE JAPAN-US-CHINA TRIANGLE .......................................................................... 24 3.1 JAPAN .......................................................................................................................... 24 3.2 THE UNITED STATES ..................................................................................................... 25 3.3 THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA ................................................................................ 27 3.4 DIFFERENT SIDES OF THE TRIANGLE ............................................................................... 29 Japan – US relations .................................................................................................... 32 Japan – China relations ............................................................................................... 35 US – China relations .................................................................................................... 42 Multilateral approaches ............................................................................................... 49 4. NATIONAL STARTING POINTS ................................................................................ 53 4.1 JAPAN .......................................................................................................................... 53 4.1.1 Domestic challenges .................................................................................................. 53 Governance challenges .............................................................................................. 54 Growth potential ........................................................................................................ 56 4.1.2 Main security challenges ........................................................................................... 59 Relative decline of US power ..................................................................................... 59 Japan-US Alliance ..................................................................................................... 59 The Chinese threat ..................................................................................................... 63 The North Korean threat ............................................................................................ 65 Nationalistic feelings ................................................................................................. 66 Becoming a more ‗normal nation‘ in response to challenges ....................................... 67 4.1.3 Japan’s future in East Asia ........................................................................................ 69 4.2 THE UNITED STATES ..................................................................................................... 71 4.2.1 Domestic challenges .................................................................................................. 72 Governance challenges .............................................................................................. 72 Growth potential ........................................................................................................ 73 Attitudes toward Japan and China .............................................................................. 74 4.2.2. Main security challenges ........................................................................................... 75 Overstretched military ............................................................................................... 75 5 Japan-US Alliance ..................................................................................................... 76 The Chinese threat ..................................................................................................... 78 The North Korean threat ............................................................................................ 82 4.2.3 The United States’ future in East Asia ........................................................................ 83 4.3 THE PEOPLE‘S REPUBLIC OF CHINA ............................................................................... 84 4.3.1 Domestic challenges .................................................................................................. 85 Governance challenges .............................................................................................. 85 Growth potential ........................................................................................................ 86 4.3.2 Main security challenges ........................................................................................... 89 Geographic scale and diversity ................................................................................... 89 Food- and environmental security .............................................................................. 91 Nationalistic feelings ................................................................................................. 92 The North Korean threat ............................................................................................ 93 The Republic of China (Taiwan) ...............................................................................
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