Supporting Evidence for the North of Scotland Regional Clinical Strategy1
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Supporting evidence for the North of Scotland Regional Clinical Strategy1 North of Scotland demographics 1. Introduction This document describes the demographics of the North of Scotland and has been prepared as part of ongoing work by the North of Scotland Planning Group to develop a Regional Clinical Strategy for the North of Scotland. The strategy will describe the vision and plans for effective regional working and delivery of high-quality, sustainable services across the North of Scotland. This document aims to support the development of the strategy and begins by describing the geographical area covered by the North of Scotland NHS Boards before summarising the current population estimates and also the population projections up to the year 2037. Although it has primarily been prepared to support the development of the Regional Clinical Strategy, it is hoped the document will provide a useful resource to support other planning activity across the North of Scotland. 2. Area description As shown in the map below, the North of Scotland region incorporates the following NHS Boards – NHS Grampian, NHS Highland, NHS Orkney, NHS Shetland, NHS Tayside and NHS Western Isles. It is acknowledged that the NHS Board boundaries, in addition to the number of Scottish territorial boards, may change in the future but the following document is based on the current situation. Figure 1: Map of Scotland highlighting the North of Scotland region (light blue) 1 This paper was prepared on behalf of the North of Scotland Public Health Network (NoSPHN). Comments are welcome to [email protected] or [email protected]. 08.03.17 Report v.10 Page | 1 The North of Scotland region spans a huge geographical area covering 54,344 square kilometres and accounting for 70% of Scotland’s land mass.1 Table 1: Area (square kilometres) covered by the North of Scotland NHS Boards (Data sourced from NRS)1 NHS Board Area (square kilometres) NHS Grampian 8,736 NHS Highland (Highland + Argyll & Bute) 32,566 (25,657 + 6,909) NHS Tayside 7,527 NHS Orkney 989 NHS Shetland 1,467 NHS Western Isles 3,060 North of Scotland (total) 54,344 Scotland (total) 77,910 The North of Scotland region includes a large number of inhabited and uninhabited islands. At the time of the 2011 census there were 93 inhabited islands (including those joined to the mainland by causeways or bridges). The total population of these islands was 103,700 which equated to 2% of the population of Scotland. The population of each of the islands ranged from just one person living on each of Danna, Eilean da Mheinn, Inchfad, Inner Holm and Soay to over 21,000 people living on Lewis and Harris.2 The large geographical area covered by the North of Scotland NHS Boards equates to significant distances and thus travel times between different areas within the region. This is illustrated within the table below:3 Table 2: Distances and travel times between some of the different regions within the North of Scotland Area Area Distance Drive time Flight time Aberdeen Edinburgh 127 miles 2 hours 33 minutes n/a Inverness Glasgow 169 miles 3 hours 11 minutes n/a Lerwick Glasgow 317 miles n/a 1 hour 30 minutes Stornoway Inverness 94 miles n/a 40 minutes Wick Campbeltown 297 miles 6 hours 56 minutes n/a Having said this, the use of travel times between areas does not provide the complete picture and can considerably underestimate total journey times as illustrated within the following scenarios. Depending upon timings it may not be possible to undertake the return journey on the same day necessitating an overnight stay which thus incurs additional time and expense. Patient 1: Rhenigidale, Western Isles to Raigmore Hospital, Inverness For an individual living in Rhenigidale, it would take 56 minutes by car to travel to Stornoway Airport. At least one hour would then need to be left to allow sufficient time to check in. The flight time from Stornoway Airport to Inverness Airport is 40 minutes. It would then take a further 35 minutes to travel by bus to Raigmore Hospital from the airport. Therefore, for an individual with an appointment at Raigmore Hospital, a minimum of almost three and a half hours travelling time (one-way) would be required. 08.03.17 Report v.10 Page | 2 Patient 2: Melvich, Sutherland to the Aberdeen Royal Infirmary For an individual from Melvich, it would take 52 minutes to travel to Wick train station by car. The train from Wick to Aberdeen would take approximately seven hours. It would then take a further 10 minutes to travel by taxi to Aberdeen Royal Infirmary. The journey for a patient travelling to Aberdeen Royal Infirmary from Melvich would therefore require at least eight hours travelling time in addition to an overnight stay. 3. Population estimates (mid-2015) 3.1 Background to the mid-year population estimates The decennial census is the source of the most authoritative population estimates. The most recent UK census was undertaken in 2011. In the years between each census, the National Records of Scotland (NRS) produce annual updates which incorporate the population change in the preceding 12 months in order to determine the annual mid-year estimates. The factors contributing to population change, and thus accounted for as part of the calculation of the mid-year estimates, are births, deaths and migration. The most recent published population estimates were for mid-2015. 3.2 Mid-2015 population estimates by NHS Board1 The mid-2015 population estimate for Scotland across all ages was 5,373,000. There was a fairly even gender split with 48.6% of the population being male (n=2,610,469) and 51.4% female (n= 2,762,531). Across the North of Scotland this equates to a population estimate of 1,395,800 with 687,155 males (49.2%) and 708,645 females (50.8%). Despite covering almost 70% of Scotland’s land mass, the North of Scotland region accounts for only 26% of the total Scottish population. The breakdown by North of Scotland NHS Board and by gender is shown below in table 3. Table 3: Mid-2015 population estimate by NHS Board plus breakdown by gender (Data sourced from NRS1) NHS Board Population Male Female estimate Population Proportion Population Proportion estimate estimate NHS Grampian 587,820 291,775 49.6% 296,045 50.4% NHS Highland 321,000 157,652 49.1% 163,348 50.9% Highland 234,110 114,677 49.0% 119,433 51.0% Argyll and Bute 86,890 42,975 49.5% 43, 915 50.5% NHS Tayside 415,040 201,786 48.6% 213,254 51.4% NHS Orkney 21,670 10,785 49.8% 10,885 50.2% NHS Shetland 23,200 11,783 50.8% 11,417 49.2% NHS Western Isles 27,070 13,374 49.4% 13,696 50.6% North of Scotland (total) 1,395,800 687,155 49.2% 708,645 50.8% Scotland (total) 5,373,000 2,610,469 48.6% 2,762,531 51.4% 08.03.17 Report v.10 Page | 3 3.3 Mid-2015 population estimates by age-group1 Data produced by NRS are available by single year of age for each NHS Board and administrative area. The information was collated to illustrate the mid-2015 population estimates within the following age- groups: under 16 years, 16-64 years and over 65 years as shown within table 4. Table 4: Mid-2015 population estimate for specific age-groupings across the North of Scotland Boards (Data sourced from NRS1) NHS Board Under 16 16-64 65+ Population % Population % Population % Total estimate estimate estimate population NHS Grampian 99,209 16.9 388,085 66.0 100,526 17.1 587,820 NHS Highland 53,248 16.6 197,351 61.5 70,401 21.9 321,000 Highland 39,956 17.1 145,077 62.0 49,077 21.0 234,110 A&B 13,292 15.3 52,274 60.2 21,324 24.5 86,890 NHS Orkney 3,489 16.1 13,367 61.7 4,814 22.2 21,670 NHS Shetland 4,254 18.3 14,619 63.0 4,327 18.7 23,200 NHS Tayside 68,070 16.4 261,779 63.1 85,191 20.5 415,040 NHS Western Isles 4,348 16.1 16,161 59.7 6,561 24.2 27,070 North of Scotland (total) 232,618 16.7 891,362 63.9 271,820 19.5 1,395,800 Scotland (total) 912,262 17.0 3,477,740 64.7 982,998 18.3 5,373,000 Figure 2 illustrates the proportion of the estimated mid-2015 population within each of the specified age- groups by NHS Board. Figure 2: Proportion of the estimated mid-2015 population within each of the specified age-groups by NHS Board North of Scotland NHS Western Isles NHS Tayside NHS Shetland NHS Orkney NHS Highland NHS Grampian 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Under 16 16-64 65+ 08.03.17 Report v.10 Page | 4 For the North of Scotland as a whole, the majority of the population was aged between 16 and 64 years with 63.9% (n=271,820) of the population within this working age-group. 16.7% of the population was aged under 16 years and 19.5% of the population was aged over 65 years. This trend was seen within all of the North of Scotland NHS Boards albeit to differing degrees. NHS Western Isles had the smallest proportion of their total population aged within the 16-64 age group with 59.7% (n=16,161) within this age-grouping.