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PARTIES' PROGRESS: the DISTRICT COUNCIL ELECTIONS of MAY 1980* J.M. Bochel Department of Political Science, University of Dundee

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PARTIES' PROGRESS: the DISTRICT COUNCIL ELECTIONS of MAY 1980* J.M. Bochel Department of Political Science, University of Dundee ~· I 1:! i'i PARTIES' PROGRESS: THE DISTRICT COUNCIL ELECTIONS OF MAY 1980* J.M. Bochel Department of Political Science, University of Dundee D.T. Denver Department of Politics, University of Lancaster The third round of elections to Scottish District Councils took place on May 1st 1980. In this chapter we present first of all a re­ latively straightforward analysis of the results of these elections comparing them with the previous District elections of 1974 and 1977. We then go on to look more specifically at the increasingly important role of political parties in Scottish local government. II In this section we consider four topics of interest - contests, candidatures, turnout and the distribution of votes and seats. At the outset it should be noted that between 1977 and 1980 ward boundaries were revised in 20 of the 53 Scottish Districts. These were Caithness, Sutherland, Skye and Lochalsh, Inverness, Badenoch and Strathspey, Nairn, North-East Fife, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Clackmannan, Stirling, Falkirk, Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale, Berwickshire, Cunninghame, Wigtown, Stewartry, Nithsdale and Annandale and Eskdale. It is antici­ pated that the remaining Districts will have their ward boundaries re­ drawn before the next elections in 1984. The changes since the last elections do not inhibit District by District comparisons but they do *This Chapter is based on the results of the District elections as published in The Scotsman newspaper, and should be regarded as a pre­ liminary analysis. A comprehensive analysis and compilation of results appears in The Scottish District Elections 1980, published by the authors. 237 / mean that in those cases where we wish to carry out ward-level analysis opponents' resources, exercise their electoral 'machine' and so on. the number of comparable wards is smaller than has been the case hith- rt is this that explains why the proportion of district wards which erto. IIIII have been contested since the reorganisation of Scottish local govern­ Contests and Their Absence ment has been relatively large - the figures are given in Table 1. Elections are a key mechanism in democratic societies enabling Table 1 the electors to express their preferences for a particular represen- Proportion of District Wards Contested tative or party and thus, indirectly, for an administration. When can- 1980 dictates are returned without 1974 12Z.Z. a contest the purpose of elections is, to an extent, frustrated, It is worth considering briefly how the %, % % phenomenon of uncontested elections arises. 79.5 77.9 74.0 There are three main possible causes. First of all the incumbent Although there is a small reduction in the proportion of wards or nominee may, through his performance and potential, satisfy every contested over the series of elections, this is entirely due to a de­ single elector. In these circumstances the purpose of elections is cline in those areas where political party activity is weakest. We not frustrated - but we doubt whether any such cases exist. Secondly shall return to this subject below, but for the moment we simply need it may be believed by potential rivals that the incumbent or nominee to note that if we consider the data for the Highland, Grampian, Bor­ is bound to win. Certainly there are good grounds in many areas for ders and Dumfries and Galloway Regions then the proportion of District thinking this. In local as in general elections most seats are safe seats contested in these has declined consistently from 57.5% in 1974 I for one party or another. And if we look at the seats which were left to 54.5% in 1977 and 40.8% in 1980, while in the other five more par­ uncontested in one election but contested in the succeeding one, then tisan Regions, the figures have remained stable at 89.4%, 88.4% and between 1974 and 1977 the incumbent party retained the seat in 81% 89.1% respectively. It would seem then that the main cause of uncon­ of cases, while between 1977 and 1980, in comparable wards, the same tested elections in Scottish Districts is the unwillingness or in­ was true in 78% of cases. This still leaves, however, a significant ability of parties to get involved in the peripheral regions and the number of occasions in which a seat, having been left uncontested at fact that in these regions the attractions of council office for non­ one election, changed hands after a contest in the next. Finally, in­ party people are not great enough to outweigh the costs involved. dividuals may not come forward as candidates because the costs may Table 2 shows the distribution of uncontested seats amongst the outweigh the benefits for them. By costs here we mean not only the parties at the three elections that have been held so far. In each effort involved in campaigning, but also the costs in time, income, case Independents account for more than half of uncontested wins and energy and career prospects in being a councillor. This sort of rea­ most of these are in non-partisan Districts. Parties are rather less soning explains why in some wards (four in this election) no candida­ inclined to allow their opponents a free run, but the perceived 1un­ tes at all are nominated and why in others which parties wish to beatability1 of Labour in some districts clearly disheartens opponents fight they are unable to find anyone willing to stand. and results in Labour having the largest number of unContested returns Parties and party members do, however, have incentives to con­ amongst the parties. test elections which individual non-party people do not have. By forcing a contest which they may not expect to win they can test their levels of support for parliamentary purposes, tie down their 238 239 ~ of the amount of interest and concern among electors, the energy and Table 2 efficiency of candidates and parties and so on. Whatever it indicates, Winning Party in Uncontested Divisions however, voting is almost universally considered to be 'a good thing' l2Z.i .!2Z2 ~ and low turnouts are deplored by public officials, politicians and Con 23 41 29 political commentators. From this point of view the 1980 District elec­ Lab 73 42 63 tions were a disappointment in that there was a further slight fall Lib 1 3 5 in electoral participation. As Table 4 shows turnout has declined in SNP 4 7 5 successive elections since the (relatively) high point of 1974 when Ind 122 154 the newly-created authorities were first elected. It should be remem­ Others 173 2 bered, though, that these figures still represent a much greater TOTAL 223 247 277 Table 4 Candidatures Turnout in District Elections 1974 1980 Table 3 shows the number of candidates for each party at each .!2Z2 District election. The 1980 elections % % % witnessed, broadly, a continua­ 51.4 47.8 tion of the trends found in the first two elections. As before, La- 45.4 number of people voting than was the case under the old local govern­ bour put forward the greatest number of candidates, 768, this being a ment system when very many more seats were left uncontested, especially record number. The Conservatives once again recorded a small increase in rural areas. Table 3 of course, considerable variation in turnout at Dis­ Candidates There was, trict level. On the one hand six Districts had turnouts below 40% l2Z.i .!2Z2 ~ Con 539 (Banff and Buchan, Gordon, Aberdeen; Perth and Kinross, Roxburgh and 543 556 Lab 753 Annandale and Eskdale) while on the other hand four had turnouts over 719 768 Lib 148 55% - but all of these were very small Districts where only a few 136 151 SNP 269 seats were contested (Sutherland, Skyeand Lochalsh, Badenoch and Strath­ 465 442 Comm 128 spey and Tweeddale). 90 60 Ind 644 There was also some variation in turnout changes between 1977 and 521 422 Others 79 1980. While overall turnout declined by 2.4%, there was an increase in 97 51 the three northern Regions of Highland (+2.0%), Grampian (+1.7%) and TOTAL 2,559 2,560 2,450 Tayside (+1.8%). The remaining six Regions showed decreases- Fife in the number of candidates nominated while the number of Independents (-3.8%), Lothian (-2.4%), Central (-4.5%), Borders (-0.4%), Strath­ and Communists continued to decline. The SNP managed to maintain their clyde (-3.5%) and Dumfries and Galloway (-2.2%). It is not clear at candidatures at about .the same level as 1977, but the Liberals increas- this stage why there was this difference between the North and South ect to their highest number so far. of the country. Turnout Despite these changes, the pattern of turnout across Districts The level of turnout at elections is often interpreted as a measune remained similar to that of the first two elections. There was a corre- 240 241 lation of .71 (Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient) be­ Table 5 tween District turnouts in 1974 and 1977 while between 1977 and 1980 Party Shares of Vote the relationship was a little stronger, the correlation coefficient Change being .75. Clearly a pattern has been established where some District 1974 1977 1980 1977-80 are consistently low turnout areas while others regularly produce % % % % higher turnouts. A whole variety of factors may explain this - the Con 26.8 27.2 24.3 -2.9 competitiveness of the District, the relative organisational strength Lab 38.4 31.6 45.5 +13.9 of parties, social and cultural factors. and so on. We do not have Lib 5.0 4.0 6.1 +2.1 space to pursue these questions here but it is a topic we hope to ex­ SNP 12.4 24.2 15.5 -8.7 plore in another paper.
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