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PREAKNESS 146 MAY15/2021 146 POST POSITIONS

RAM (30/1) Owner: William Mack & (12/1) Owner: John & Diane Fradkin Christina Baker Trainer: Mike McCarthy 1 Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas 6 : Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

KEEPMEINMIND (15/1) FRANCE GO DE INA Owner: Cypress Creek Equine, Farm & (20/1) Owner: Yuji Inaida Arnold Bennewith 2 7 Trainer: Hideyuki Mori Trainer: Robertino Diodoro Jockey: Jockey: David Cohen

UNBRIDLED HONOR (9/5) Owner: Zedan Racing (15/1) Trainer: Owner: Whisper Hill Farm 3 Jockey: John Velazquez 8 Trainer: Jockey:

CROWDED TRADE RISK TAKING (15/1) (10/1) Owner: Klaravich Stables Owner: Klaravich Stables Trainer: Chad Brown 4 Trainer: Chad Brown 9 Jockey: Jose Ortiz Jockey:

MIDNIGHT BOURBON CONCERT TOUR (5/2) (5/1) Owner: Gary & Mary West Owner: Winchell Trainer: Bob Baffert 5 Trainer: 10 Jockey: Mike Smith Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

Odds listed are Pimlico morning line odds.

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MEDINA SPIRIT: The Derby winner arrives in with a bullseye on his back and plenty of drama around the barn following a questionable post-race drug test. He’s unlikely to enjoy another relatively uncontested front-running victory. The most serious early challenge could come from Medina Spirit’s Bob Baffert-trained stablemate and Grade 2 winner Concert Tour. It’s unlikely these two will engage in a premature, head-to-head battle, because that would be foolish. Neither the trainer nor fellow Hall of Fame jockeys – John Velazquez on Medina Spirit, Mike Smith on Concert Tour – are likely to fall into that trap. Depending on who breaks best, one of Baffert’s two likely will set the pace with the other in close attendance. Medina Spirit wears roses (for now) and along with that goes respect; so he’ll likely be favored in the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown.

CONCERT TOUR: As we learned in the (for a record seventh time), a Bob Baffert-trained horse always is dangerous in a Triple Crown race; extra deadly when the trainer has the luxury of time to aim a horse for a specific target. Such is the case with Concert Tour in Preakness. Unbeaten in his first four starts and a disappointing third as the heavy favorite in the Grade 1 , this ’s connections have had the Preakness winner’s circle squarely in sight for several weeks. The son of comes into the race rejuvenated; Hot Springs flop forgotten. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith will ride Concert Tour for the first time, replacing Joel Rosario. The colt has speed and is expected to use it from the start as definitively as Medina Spirit used his in the Kentucky Derby.

MIDNIGHT BOURBON: He ran a bit of a strange race in the Kentucky Derby. Instead of showing the kind of speed he had displayed in recent starts, Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith permitted this son of to settle and find his own rhythm. The plan saw the colt racing about mid- pack for much of the race. He closed ground late, passing some tired foes, but it wasn’t the type of effort many expected at 13-1 contender’s odds. Smith has jumped ship to ride Concert Tour in the Preakness and it will be interesting to see how the immensely talented Irad Ortiz, Jr. approaches the saddle assignment aboard this colt. Will he put ‘Bourbon in the race earlier? The Steve Asmussen-trained colt has a pair of 96 Beyer Speed Figures to his credit, so he’s quality. He won the Lecomte in January and was a close third and then second in the Grade 2 and Grade 2 , respectively.

CROWDED TRADE: A winner first time out at Aqueduct, this son of More Than Ready is trained by multiple Award-winning trainer Chad Brown, who the Preakness applecart in 2017 with at 13-1 odds. This colt is inexperienced with just three starts. In his second career journey, he was second in the Grade 3 Gotham at one mile. He then was third in the slowly run Grade 2 Wood Memorial at one mile and one-eighth. There was some question about this colt’s ability to get the one mile and one-quarter Derby distance, and his connections are hoping that the one mile and three-sixteenths Preakness path will be more to his liking. He has little early speed, so he’ll need matters to quickly combust for his best chance in Old Hilltop’s signature event.

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 4 MEET THE PREAKNESS CONTENDERS By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD

KEEPMEINMIND: After a start at gigantic 49-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby, don’t expect this son of Laoban to attract much wagering support in the Preakness. However, close replay observers noticed that this colt ran pretty well in the Derby. Last early, he closed considerable ground on the leaders and not many runners in the race were able to do that. His 2-year-old form is strong, boasting respectable, in-the-money finishes behind freshman champ and Derby favorite in both the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club in his final 2020 start. His sophomore campaign hasn’t progressed as smoothly, but his late run in the Derby could hint at a better performance in Baltimore, especially if things get hot up front early.

FRANCE GO DE INA: This Kentucky-bred son of invades Charm City off a sixth-place finish in the Grade 2 UAE Derby in Dubai. That was his first start of 2021 and he broke a bit slowly and was squeezed at the start. That left him a well-back last of 14 into the first turn. A ground-saving, rail-skimming ride had him blocked a bit on the turn, but he was able to gain some on the leaders in the stretch. However, there was no way he could gain back what was lost at the start. At two, he romped by more than four lengths in two mile and one-eighth races in Japan. Top jock Joel Rosario, who rode the colt in Dubai, will return in the saddle hoping for a better break from the Pimlico gate than the duo experienced last time.

ROMBAUER: He earned an all-fees paid Preakness entry by virtue of an exciting victory in the at Golden Gate Fields. That afternoon he roared home from last in a field of eight to get up by a neck in the shadow of the wire. That was his first start of 2021 and he returned to finish third in the Grade 2 Blue Grass last out at . At two, he broke his maiden first out on turf and was second in the Grade 1 at Santa Anita on dirt. To end his 2-year-old season, he proved he could act with the best of his generation as he was fifth in the Grade 1 BC Juvenile, behind Derby favorite and fourth-place finisher Essential Quality, Derby third-place runner and Preakness foe Keepmeinmind. Top jockey Fravien Prat, who commandeered to a runner-up effort in the Derby, will ride Rombauer for the first time for up-and-coming conditioner Michael McCarthy.

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1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 5 HANDICAP PREAKNESS LIKE

? DID YOU KNOW?

The 1/ST BET app uses more than 50 factors in evaluating each horse in a race, drawing from a library of more than 200,000 previous races to match past success with future success. 1/ST BET automatically matches and ranks the proven, most successful factors in each race, while Just as we did 2 weeks ago for the Kentucky Derby, we asked renowned 1/ST and it also gives you the ability to select NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk which handicapping angles he applies when your own set of factors to make analyzing the . Now, for the first time, you can reconstruct personalized, artificial intelligence- Edzo’s Preakness approach and put it to work for yourself by combining forces based selections in mere seconds. with the 1/ST BET app.

“Not a lot changes from the Derby to the Preakness,” Olczyk said. “I’m not looking to invent a new dance or anything. These horses are fresh on the minds of horseplayers and they’ve got your attention. Most of the same handicapping fundamentals apply.”

IN THE MIX 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY

“Just like the Derby, you want a Preakness horse in contention when they hit BEST LIFETIME SPEED the top of the stretch,” Olczyk reasoned. “Other than in the slop SPEED LAST RACE (2016), you won’t find deep closers having a lot of win-end Preakness success AVERAGE SPEED LAST 3 in the past decade.” The ability to be up close, part of the pace, still matters. AVG. LAST 3 E1 PACE Consider the Derby’s top 4 finishers this year all were in the front third of the LAST E1 PACE pack throughout. Because of the immediate relevance of the Derby, consider AVG. LAST 3 E2 PACE adding in speed and pace factors for the most recent race as well as those LAST E2 PACE further-reaching. AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIMES

IN THE GENES 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY

“While the Preakness distance is a bit shorter than the Derby,” Olczyk explained, DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING “it is still farther than most 3-year-olds want to run, and farther than the newcomers DIRT PEDIGREE RATING to the Triple Crown series likely have run in their careers. The Derby horses are proven at the trip, but pedigree can still be the measuring stick for the fresh faces.”

EYE ON THE SKY 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY

“It’s springtime, and you never know when a wet track will become a storyline,” BEST SPEED OFF TRACK Olczyk said. “Be prepared for which horses might benefit if conditions warrant.” MUD PEDIGREE RATING

Final point: The 1/ST BET app’s factors allow you to adjust your considerations in mere seconds as the day unfolds. “Flexibility is key to being a good horseplayer,” Olczyk said. “On Derby Day, you watch Jackie’s Warrior run off in the Mile and not stop even after blazing fractions, and it becomes more obvious that you want to be near the front in the Derby. And that’s exactly how it played out.”

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 6 FACTORS THROUGH HISTORY PREAKNESS STAKES 2017-2020 Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and led as many as 18 and 22 of the 1/ST BET handicapping factors for their Preakness Stakes appearances. But you don’t have to be that dominant to get noticed. A search of the 1/ST BET archives indicates that each of the last 7 Preakness champs ranked in the top-3 of their respective fields for most factor categories led.

See where the last 4 Preakness winners ranked best in terms of handicapping factors, and look for those commonalities with this year’s runners when using the 1/ST BET app to handicap the middle jewel in the Triple Crown. Learn more.

2020 2018 2017

WINNER: WINNER: JUSTIFY WINNER: CLOUD COMPUTING RANKED FIRST IN 7 FACTORS RANKED FIRST IN 22 FACTORS RANKED FIRST IN 6 FACTORS BEST SPEED DISTANCE AVG. SPEED LAST 3 LAST E2 PACE BEST SPEED FAST TRACK AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S DISTANCE AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIME BEST LIFETIME SPEED LAST E2 PACE AVG. SPEED LAST 3 SPEED LAST RACE BEST SPEED THIS DISTANCE TRAINER CURRENT YEAR AVG. BEST 2 OF LAST 3 SPEED BEST SPEED OFF TRACK AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 BEST SPEED LAST 3 BEST SPEED FAST TRACK LAST E1 PACE LAST LATE PACE AVG. LIFETIME EARNINGS BEST SPEED LAST RACE HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: TRAINER WIN % 1 YEAR MULTIPLIER (13), EXCESSION (11), AUTHNETIC (8), AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 PACE (9), CLOUD COMPUTING (6) SWISS SKYDIVER (7) TRAINER CURRENT YEAR AVG. OFF-TRACK EARNINGS BEST LIFETIME SPEED 2019 HORSES DEFEATED % WINNER: AVG. SPEED BEST 2 OF LAST 3 RANKED FIRST IN 13 FACTORS: LAST E1 PACE LAST PURSE TRAINER-JOCKEY WIN % 2 YEARS LAST RACE CLASS AVG. OF LAST 3 E1 PACE BEST SPEED TURF BEST SPEED LAST 3 AVG. TURF EARNINGS WIN % DAYS SINCE LAST RACE JOCKEY WIN % 6 MONTHS JOCKEY TRAINER ROI MEET JOCKEY WIN % 1 YEAR AVG. EARNINGS TODAY’S TRACK HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: BEST SPEED TODAY’S TRACK JUSTIFY (22), QUIP (13), T/J COMBO WIN % MEET AND LONE SAILOR (5) TRAINER CURRENT MEET DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING DIRT PEDIGREE RATING FACTOR CATEGORIES: TURF PEDIGREE RATING = PERFORMANCE HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: = RESULTS WAR OF WILL AND (13), = JOCKEY+ TRAINER WARRIOR’S CHARGE (7) = PEDIGREE Swiss Skydiver (2020)

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 7 1/ST BET: PREAKNESS STAKES ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PICKS The 1/ST INDEX analyzes millions of data points over more than 50 important handicapping factors to create an exclusive handicapping tool that instantly puts the power of years of experience in the palm of your hand. Use the AI-assisted selections or create and analyze your own factors ONLY in the 1/ST BET App. Learn More

HORSE WIN% PLACE% SHOW% FAIR ODDS

1 RAM 4% 7% 10% 25/1

2 KEEPMEINMIND 10% 17% 39% 9/1

3 MEDINA SPIRIT 31% 47% 61% 2/1

4 CROWDED TRADE 22% 33% 43% 7/2

5 MIDNIGHT BOURBON 5% 16% 26% 20/1

6 ROMBAUER 4% 10% 22% 25/1

7 FRANCE GO DE INA 4% 8% 12% 25/1

8 HONOR 4% 10% 17% 25/1

9 RISK TAKING 9% 19% 26% 10/1

10 CONCERT TOUR 9% 33% 44% 10/1

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 8 1/ST BET: PIMLICO 5/15 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PICKS Race # - Post Time Win Place Show Fair Odds Race # - Post Time Win Place Show Fair Odds

RACE 1 (10:30 AM ET) // STAKES ($100K) RACE 8 (2:45 PM ET) // JAMES W. MURPHY STAKES ($100K) 3 MARKET CAP 29% 55% 69% 5/2 2 OUTADORE 27% 50% 61% 5/2 5 ROMP 27% 47% 64% 5/2 5 EXTRASEXYBIGDADDEE 20% 37% 50% 4/1 4 HOZIER 17% 41% 59% 5/1 1 INDIAN LAKE 17% 34% 50% 5/1 1 THE KING CHEEK 13% 28% 49% 7/1 6 ARZAK 12% 16% 37% 8/1

RACE 2 (11:05 AM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($52K) RACE 9 (3:25 PM ET) // SKIPAT STAKES ($100K) 10 OCEANS MAP 20% 28% 40% 4/1 2 CASUAL 32% 51% 63% 2/1 7 OPERATIVE 17% 30% 38% 5/1 5 CHUB WAGON 23% 52% 73% 7/2 9 UNEQUIVOCAL 12% 24% 31% 8/1 8 FRENCH EMPIRE 14% 32% 44% 6/1 3 SPEED GAME 11% 21% 28% 9/1 6 DONTLETSWEETFOOLYA 8% 23% 38% 12/1

RACE 3 (11:41 AM ET) // CHICK LANG STAKES ($200K) RACE 10 (4:05 PM ET) // JIM MCKAY TURF SPRINT STAKES ($100K) 4 JAXON TRAVELER 32% 51% 70% 2/1 4 THE CRITICAL WAY 27% 43% 52% 5/2 2 MIGHTY MISCHIEF 25% 51% 64% 3/1 5 HOLLIS 14% 25% 34% 6/1 5 SHACKLED 13% 30% 49% 7/1 11 FIRECROW 13% 24% 35% 7/1 6 WILLIE BOI 13% 33% 56% 7/1 1 BOLDOR 7% 13% 31% 12/1

RACE 4 (12:16 PM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($52K) RACE 11 (4:41 PM ET) // SPRINT STAKES ($150K) 12 OUT OF SORTS 20% 27% 38% 4/1 1 LAKI 26% 43% 54% 3/1 6 JUDI BLUE EYES 16% 29% 36% 5/1 5 STRIKE POWER 17% 32% 46% 5/1 8 GLAMOROUS THUNDER 11% 23% 29% 9/1 7 BREEZY GUST 11% 22% 36% 9/1 2 LIRAZ 10% 20% 27% 9/1 2 YODEL E.A. WHO 11% 22% 34% 9/1

RACE 5 (12:51 PM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($52K) RACE 12 (5:38 PM ET) // DINNER PARTY STAKES ($250K) 7 SUGAR DADDY 29% 42% 52% 5/2 5 SACRED LIFE 25% 45% 54% 3/1 4 FIRE SWORD 16% 28% 44% 5/1 1 SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN 23% 43% 50% 7/2 2 BREAKING NEWS 12% 27% 41% 8/1 3 KURAMATA 20% 31% 44% 4/1 10 ABUELO PAPS 10% 26% 31% 9/1 6 TALK OR LISTEN 10% 25% 38% 9/1

RACE 6 (1:28 PM ET) // STAKES ($150K) RACE 13 (6:47 PM ET) // PREAKNESS STAKES ($1M) 3 FLIGHTY LADY 30% 52% 69% 5/2 3 MEDINA SPIRIT 31% 47% 61% 2/1 2 GREAT ISLAND 21% 41% 57% 7/2 4 CROWDED TRADE 22% 33% 43% 7/2 1 VIGILANTES WAY 14% 28% 56% 6/1 2 KEEPMEINMIND 10% 17% 39% 9/1 5 MEAN MARY 14% 26% 44% 6/1 10 CONCERT TOUR 9% 33% 44% 10/1

RACE 7 (2:07 PM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($55K) RACE 14 (7:33 PM ET) // UAE PRESIDENT CUP STAKES ($100K) 2 BURNING BRIGHT 31% 47% 59% 5/2 10 PADDYS DAY 23% 40% 50% 7/2 5 MCELMORE AVENUE 13% 25% 36% 7/1 8 RB RICH LYKE ME 17% 30% 44% 5/1 3 SHANE’S JEWEL 11% 24% 37% 9/1 3 UPTOWN SANDY GIRL 7% 12% 24% 12/1 10 MISCHIEF AFOOT 9% 26% 34% 10/1 4 UPTOWN LADY ARABELLA 7% 10% 19% 12/1

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 9 PREAKNESS WAGERING FACTS

Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Preakness events.

WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS LOWEST-PRICED FAVORITES (Last 20 Years, Odds to $1) (Last 20 Years, Odds to $1) Win Odds: Average: 4.95 Odds Horse Year Fin. High: 15.40 (, 2013) .20 2008 1st Low: .20 (Big Brown, 2008) .40 Justify 2018 1st Notable: Last year’s winner Swiss Skydiver was the fifth price .50 Chrome 2014 1st player to score at 10-1 or more since 2006. .50 2006 dnf .70 2016 3rd Place Odds: Average: 14.65 .70 2013 4th High: 45.70 (, 2002) .90 American Pharoah 2015 1st Low: 1.30 (Street Sense, 2007) Notable: (2020) became the first favorite to finish as the LONGSHOT WINNERS runner-up since (2012). (15-1 OR MORE, ALL-TIME) $2 Payoff Horse Year Show Odds: Average: 12.44 $48.80 1975 High: 31.70 (Senior Investment, 2017) $45.60 1925 Low: .70 (Nyquist, 2016) $40.70 1926 Notable: Nyquist (2016) is the only Preakness favorite to finish $39.40 1972 third in the last 20 years. $32.80 Oxbow 2013 $32.00 1900 $32.00 1907 EXACTA PAYOFFS (Last 20 years, $2 Payoffs) HIGHEST-PRICED SUPERFECTA FINISHERS Average: $148.98 (Last 15 Years, Odds to $1) High: $947.00 (War of Will-Everfast, 2019) Odds Horse Year Fin. Low: $18.20 (-Ride On , 2014) 40.90 Jesus’ Team 2020 3rd Notable: 17 of the last 20 exactas have had at least 1 horse 3-1 or 39.90 2008 2nd less on the ticket. 31.70 Senior Investment 2017 3rd 29.40 Hemingway’s Key 2006 3rd TRIFECTA PAYOFFS 29.30 Everfast 2019 3rd (Last 20 years, $1 Payoffs) 28.50 Tale of Verve 2015 2nd Average: $873.84 26.10 Tenfold 2018 3rd High: $4,699.80 (War of Will-Everfast-Owendale, 2019) 25.40 Flying Private 2009 4th Low: $35.40 (I’ll Have Another-Bodemeister-Creative Cause, 2012) 25.10 Racecar Rhapsody 2008 4th Notable: The $1 Preakness trifecta has returned more than $1,000 in 3 of the last 4 years. 2019-‘20 PREAKNESS HANDLE TOTALS (Handle in Millions Except BES/PRK DD) SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS Wager 2019 2020 (Last 20 years, $1 Payoffs) Win/Place/Show $21.8 $9.8 Average: $6,238.80 (Average Odds of Fourth-place finishers is 11.2-1) Exacta $13.2 $5.6 High: $51,924 (War of Will-Everfast-Owendale-Warrior’s Charge, 2019) Trifecta $11.8 $6.6 Low: $173.80 (California Chrome-Ride On Curlin-Social Inclusion- Superfecta $6.8 $4.0 General A Rod, 2014) Pick Four $3.1 $1.4 Notable: 7 times in its 23-year history, the superfecta on the Preakness Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness DD $810K $290K has paid $5,000 or more for a $1 bet, including the past 2 years.

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ANALYSIS: It used to be that you would never go against Bob Baffert in the Preakness, BEAUTIFUL GIFT 10 especially since he had never lost with a Kentucky Derby winner. That was before last 28% 45% 55% year. He was 6-for-6 before Authentic and everyone else were defeated last fall by the ADVENTURING 9 fabulous Swiss Skydiver. Because of the COVID scheduling, that seemed to be the 15% 29% 42% most abnormal Preakness ever – until this weekend. Now Baffert has to wait out two THE GRASS IS BLUE 8 drug tests on MEDINA SPIRIT: one on a split sample to learn if he keeps his record 12% 35% 44% seventh Derby victory; the other an onsite test to see if there are still any prohibited ARMY WIFE 1 traces left in the colt’s system. If it is anything more than zero, MEDINA SPIRIT would 11% 22% 33% be out of the Preakness. Even if that latest test comes back clean, the biggest threat to keeping the Triple Crown alive is in Baffert’s own barn. At the owners’ urging, CONCERT ICED LATTE 6 9% 17% 31% TOUR was held out of the Derby. He was widely considered to be Baffert’s best, healthy 3-year-old before he suffered his first career loss in the Arkansas Derby. Hall of Famers MISS LESLIE 7 8% 11% 28% John Velázquez and Mike Smith have the rides, and they both figure to send the two horses forward early in the race. It will be a case of “come and get ’em” for all their rivals. FOREVER BOSS 4 5% 11% 19% MAIN CONTENDERS: While MEDINA SPIRIT and CONCERT TOUR provide the early WILLFUL WOMAN 2 speed, don’t be fooled by MIDNIGHT BOURBON’s Derby. He had a bumpy trip past the 4% 13% 21% wire the first time around , so he had an alibi for being back in the pack LADY TRAVELER for his sixth-place finish. Wood Memorial third CROWDED TRADE looks like the best of 5 4% 11% 16% the two horses for Chad Brown, who added Withers victor RISK TAKING late last week. SPRITZ The key is the break. Johnny V. will try to get MEDINA SPIRIT on the lead and take him 3 4% 7% 11% home the way he did in the Derby. The fact that MEDINA SPIRIT has never been passed once that he is in first place is telling. A gate-to-wire win is the Baffert way. TIP: Scratches can impact the 1/ST BET AI picks, so be sure to run the app’s VALUE PLAYS: ROMBAUER won the El Camino Real Derby on a synthetic surface handicapping features on Black-Eyed to qualify for the Preakness, and his connections decided to take the free pass Susan Day for the latest projections. to Pimlico rather than shell out the bucks to enter the Derby. As a side note, ROMBAUER has been my favorite chardonnay for years. I have been to the vineyard in Napa, and their corks actually say “the joy of wine.” The only problem is it got too expensive. It is the most pricy chardonnay I have ever seen. Maybe the best way to get a bargain on the wine is to find value on the horse.

$100 WAGERING STRATEGY: • $50 Exacta Box: MEDINA SPIRIT and CONCERT TOUR ($100)

TOP 4 PICKS

1. MEDINA SPIRIT 3. MIDNIGHT BOURBON 2. CONCERT TOUR 4. ROMBAUER

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 12 PREAKNESS STAKES GRADE 1 - $1,000,000 3YO – 1 3/16 MILES (DIRT)

ONE BOURBON, STATS & TRENDS DERBY WINNERS IN PREAKNESS ONE SHOT, ONE CHEER (LAST 15 YEARS) By Jeremy Plonk, @HorsePlayerNow Year Horse Fin. Odds ‘20 Authentic 2nd 3-2* ANALYSIS: Handicapping the Preakness got considerably trickier upon the ‘19 -did not compete- announcement by Bob Baffert that Kentucky Derby winner MEDINA SPIRIT ‘18 Justify 1st 2-5* ‘17 Always Dreaming 8th 6-5* had tested positive for a banned substance in Louisville. What do you do as ‘16 Nyquist 3rd 3-5* a horseplayer: toss the favorite, trust the result or shop around amongst the ‘15 Amer. Pharoah 1st 4-5* uncertainty? Even before the breaking news Sunday, I was leaning toward shopping ‘14 Cal. Chrome 1st 1-2* because MEDINA SPIRIT does not bounce into Baltimore with the same air of ‘13 Orb 4th 3-5* invincibility as Justify at 2-5 or American Pharoah at 4-5. Do I worry about losing ‘12 I’ll Have Another 1st 3-1* to him? Not so much; that’s life. But I do recognize that the uncertainty of his ‘11 2nd 2-1* ‘10 8th 9-5* situation, betting-wise, could increase his odds, thus dropping those on horses ‘09 2nd 6-1 with which you’re trying to defeat him. ‘08 Big Brown 1st 1-5* ‘07 Street Sense 2nd 6-5* MAIN CONTENDERS: MEDINA SPIRIT and stablemate CONCERT TOUR likely ‘06 Barbaro dnf 1-2* start as the top two wagering choices and also double as the controlling speed in *Preakness Favorite Preakness 146. That’s a tough read as to how they’ll attack one another. CONCERT HALF-MILE LEADERS TOUR is 2-2 on the lead and 0-2 chasing. MEDINA SPIRIT is essentially 3-3 manning Year Horse Fin. the engine and 0-3 in pursuit. Jockey Mike Smith, as well as Baffert, will hear the ‘20 Authentic 2nd wrath of racing observers if he’s too casual aboard distance-challenged CONCERT ‘19 Warrior’s Charge 4th TOUR. There’s one shot in upending the Baffert juggernaut, and that’s if they each ‘18 Justify 1st get too brazen in their independence. If so, MIDNIGHT BOURBON almost assuredly ‘17 Always Dreaming 8th will be sitting in the crosshairs from third position, for the first time under America’s ‘16 Nyquist 3rd ‘15 Amer. Pharoah 1st top pilot Irad Ortiz Jr. The colt’s Derby effort was highly appreciated by this eye. ‘14 Pablo Del Monte 6th ‘13 Oxbow 1st VALUE PLAYS: The bulk of the rest are deep closers. KEEPMEINMIND figures to ‘12 Bodemeister 2nd be slightly overrated off his Derby rally. CROWDED TRADE looks a lot on paper like ‘11 Flashpoint 14th his 2017 predecessor Cloud Computing, who upset the Preakness. But his 2021 NYRA contemporaries were overmatched in Louisville, dissuading me from PREAKNESS WINNERS WHO SKIPPED DERBY backing his form. Japanese raider FRANCE GO DE INA made solid headway in the (SINCE 1980) UAE Derby late and perhaps America’s best finishing jockey, Joel Rosario (who also Year Horse rode him in Dubai), would seem a great style fit. ‘20 Swiss Skydiver ‘17 Cloud Computing $100 WAGERING STRATEGY: ‘09 • $55 Win: MIDNIGHT BOURBON ‘06 ‘00 • $20 Exacta Box: MIDNIGHT BOURBON and MEDINA SPIRIT ($40) ‘83 • $5 Exacta: MIDNIGHT BOURBON over FRANCE GO DE INA (5) ‘82 Aloma’s Ruler

TOP 4 PICKS

1. MIDNIGHT BOURBON 3. FRANCE GO DE INA 2. MEDINA SPIRIT 4. CONCERT TOUR

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 13 PREAKNESS STAKES GRADE 1 - $1,000,000 3YO – 1 3/16 MILES (DIRT)

BAFFERT AGAIN. PREAKNESS “LAST TIMES”THE THE LAST... BUT WHICH ONE? KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER TO WIN: By Jeff Siegel @jsiegelracing Justify (2018)

ANALYSIS: Trainer Bob Baffert has saddled two Triple Crown winners – American KENTUCKY DERBY RUNNER-UP TO Exagerrator (2016) Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018) – but the pressure that was felt during the midst of those WIN: magnificent achievements pales in comparison to what the Hall of Fame conditioner KENTUCKY DERBY SHOW HORSE TO WIN: surely is experiencing following the disclosure of a post-race positive drug test that leaves Curlin (2007) the Kentucky Derby result in doubt. Through it all, MEDINA SPIRIT, oblivious to the controversy, is reported to be sound and healthy and will be the favorite to repeat his DERBY OFF-THE-BOARD FINISHER TO WIN: heroics in the Preakness. The rags-to-riches, $1,000 likely won’t Oxbow (2013) enjoy the same type of comfortable, front-running trip that propelled him at Churchill KENTUCKY DERBY EXACTA TO REPEAT Downs. At Old Hilltop, MEDINA SPIRIT must contend with stablemate CONCERT 1-2 IN PREAKNESS: TOUR, a once-beaten and extremely fast colt who seems likely to employ gate-to-wire I’ll Have Another-Bodemeister (2012) tactics and offer the most serious challenge to the Derby’s first-place finisher. KENTUCKY DERBY TRIFECTA TO MAIN CONTENDERS: In six career starts, MEDINA SPIRIT has finished behind REPEAT 1-2-3 IN PREAKNESS: -- (1978) only two horses, unbeaten Life is Good (twice) and , the wire-to- wire upset winner of the . The concerns surrounding MEDINA NON-KENTUCKY DERBY ALUM TO WIN: SPIRIT in Baltimore are three-fold. First, can he replicate his best performance Swiss Skydiver (2020) without a front-running trip? Second, will he react adversely to the quick, 14-day turnaround after a full expenditure of energy in Louisville? And third, a loose-on- PREPPED LAST AT PIMLICO TO WIN: the lead CONCERT TOUR may get very brave, just as he did in his most impressive Bee Bee Bee (1972) career victory two runs back in the Rebel. Not too long ago the son of Street Sense JOCKEY TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK: was the higher-regarded of two Baffert entrants, and those who back him to beat 2014-’15 with California MEDINA SPIRIT will be doing so at a considerably better price this time. Chrome and American Pharoah

VALUE PLAYS: MIDNIGHT BOURBON found himself too far back during the early stages JOCKEY TO WIN HIS DEBUT: of the Derby to have any say in the outcome, though, to his credit, he kept to his task and (2012) aboard I’ll Have Another wound up a respectable sixth of 19, beaten about eight lengths. In the Preakness, with TRAINER TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK: an aggressive ride from new pilot Irad Ortiz Jr., the son of Tiznow projects to draft into an Bob Baffert (2001-‘02) with ideal second flight, stalking position and then have every chance to make some noise & from the quarter-pole home. Given his anticipated trip, the Steve Asmusssen-trained colt could easily outrun his odds and at least participate in the vertical exotics. TRAINER TO WIN HIS DEBUT: Chad Brown (2017) with Cloud Computing $100 WAGERING STRATEGY: FILLY TO WIN: • $35 Exacta Box: MEDINA SPIRIT and CONCERT TOUR ($70) Swiss Skydiver (2020), last of 5 • $5 Exacta Box: MEDINA SPIRIT, CONCERT TOUR, MIDNIGHT BOURBON ($30) to have won this race

TOP 4 PICKS

1. MEDINA SPIRIT 3. MIDNIGHT BOURBON 2. CONCERT TOUR 4. KEEPMEINMIND

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 14 PREAKNESSS 146 EXPERT PICKS

We tasked our expert racing analysts across the 1/ST family to provide their selections for this year’s second jewel in the Triple Crown.

JEFF JOHN MICHELLE NAOMI SIEGEL DESANTIS YU TUKKER @jsiegelracing @XBJohnnyD @themichelleyu @NaomiTukker

MEDINA SPIRIT CONCERT TOUR MEDINA SPIRIT CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR MIDNIGHT BOURBON CONCERT TOUR MIDNIGHT BOURBON MIDNIGHT BOURBON KEEPMEINMIND UNBRIDLED HONOR MEDINA SPIRIT KEEPMEINMIND RISK TAKING MIDNIGHT BOURBON CROWDED TRADE

JEREMY TOM MILLIE RON PLONK QUIGLEY BALL NICOLETTI @Horseplayernow @quigleys_corner @camillayakteen @ronic17

MIDNIGHT BOURBON ROMBAUER CONCERT TOUR MIDNIGHT BOURBON MEDINA SPIRIT MEDINA SPIRIT MEDINA SPIRIT MEDINA SPIRIT FRANCE GO DE INA CROWDED TRADE MIDNIGHT BOURBON CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR UNBRIDLED HONOR UNBRIDLED HONOR

CLAUDIA MATT ZOE JON SPADARO DINERMAN CADMAN WHITE @claudiaspadaro @3coltshandicap @zoecadman @PostTimeJon

CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR MIDNIGHT BOURBON MIDNIGHT BOURBON MIDNIGHT BOURBON MEDINA SPIRIT MEDINA SPIRIT ROMBAUER MEDINA SPIRIT MIDNIGHT BOURBON CROWDED TRADE MEDINA SPIRIT UNBRIDLED HONOR CROWDED TRADE

PETER DUSTIN GEORGE EDDIE LURIE FABIAN ORTUZAR OLCZYK @Peterlurievo @1STBET @georgeortuzar @1STBET

CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR CONCERT TOUR MIDNIGHT BOURBON FRANCE GO DE INA ROMBAUER MEDINA SPIRIT CONCERT TOUR MEDINA SPIRIT MEDINA SPIRIT MIDNIGHT BOURBON ROMBAUER CROWDED TRADE CROWDED TRADE UNBRIDLED HONOR MEDINA SPIRIT

1ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 15 PREAKNESS 146 NEED-TO-KNOW

RACE DATE: SATURDAY, MAY 15 FIRST RACE POST TIME: 10:30 A.M. ET PREAKNESS STAKES POST TIME: 6:47 P.M. ET WATCH FREE AND WAGER: ALL RACES ON 1/ST BET APP & XPRESSBET.COM TELEVISION: NBC SPORTS, 2-5 PM ET; 5-7:15 PM ET WAGERING NOTES: BLACK-EYED SUSAN/PREAKNESS DAILY DOUBLE (FRI/SAT)

DERBY DAY STAKES LINEUP Grade 1 Preakness $1,000,000 3YO 1-3/16 miles Grade 2 Dinner Party $250,000 3&UP 1-1/16 miles (turf) Grade 3 Chick Lang $200,000 3YO 6 furlongs Grade 3 Gallorette $150,000 3&UP/FM 1-1/16 miles (turf) Grade 3 Maryland Sprint $150,000 3&UP 6 furlongs Jim McKay Turf Sprint $100,000 3&UP 5 furlongs (turf) Sir Barton $100,000 3YO 1-1/16 miles Skipat $100,000 3&UP/FM 6 furlongs James W. Murphy $100,000 3YO 1 mile (turf)

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