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10 Steps Toward Trust the World’S Regime Against Nuclear Weap- Restarting Negotiations Between the Ons Can Be Strengthened

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10 Steps Toward Trust the World’S Regime Against Nuclear Weap- Restarting Negotiations Between the Ons Can Be Strengthened by Jorge Morales PedrazaBurying the Nuclear Sword New Roles for the IAEA? liminating nuclear weapons — or at the One objective then was to establish confidence in very least reducing their numbers — stands the verification mechanism. It aimed to detect any Eamong the most important challenges of deviation or the non-authorized use of safeguarded the 21st century. Progress will require effective ver- nuclear materials, equipment, facilities, information ification mechanisms, so that any violation or non- and knowledge, including that acquired by any IAEA compliance with nuclear arms-control agreements Member State through the organization, or through is detected, especially those that could jeopardize the cooperation with other States. international peace and security. It is important to stress that the former and current The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) — IAEA safeguards system — including the Additional which already performs valuable verification func- Protocol adopted by the Board of Governors tions — could play an even greater role in years in the 1990s — does not have the objective of ahead to help the world control and bury nuclear impeding the military use of the nuclear materials, weapons. This article offers a group of proposals equipment, facilities, information and knowledge. regarding possible new roles for the IAEA in the field The system works only to detect any violation of nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. They or non-compliance with the obligations and include steps for the verification of nuclear material commitments assumed by States having IAEA from dismantled weapons now in the arsenals of safeguard agreements under the NPT. In my view, the world’s military nuclear powers. the IAEA safeguards system is now facing five major obstacles: Nuclear Safeguards ➊ The lack of universality of the NPT; The IAEA was constituted in 1957 to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy, but under strict ➋ Political decisions of the USA in the field of international verification measures. The initial IAEA disarmament, particularly in the field of nuclear safeguards system to ensure the peaceful use of disarmament; nuclear energy suffered a significant transforma- tion in the 1970s. This transformation was tied to the ➌ The limited application of the IAEA safeguards Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons system among its Member States and NPT State (NPT), which entered into force in 1970. Parties; 10 Steps Toward Trust The world’s regime against nuclear weap- Restarting negotiations between the ons can be strengthened. In the views of Mr. USA and Russia on nuclear arms reduc- Pedraza, ten confidence-building measures ➌ tions, and extending the talks to other could help States reinforce it. nuclear-weapon States when US and Russian nuclear arsenals are cut to 90% of their current An agreement to withdraw the combat levels; readiness of all nuclear weapons of any ➊ type and power; A binding international agreement for all nuclear-weapon States that for- The safe dismantling of all nuclear ➍ bids the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons and the storage of all nuclear weapons against any NPT State; ➋ warheads separated from their deliv- ery systems while awaiting future destruction; 52 | IAEA Bulletin 49-2 | March 2008 Burying the Nuclear Sword The world’s regime against the spread of nuclear weapons faces serious obstacles. A stronger IAEA could help States overcome them. ➍ The status of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, against the country. Concerning Iran, the Security which has yet to enter into force; and Council adopted economic and political sanctions against the country, and presently is considering fur- ➎ The failure of the Conference of Disarmament ther measures. Concerning the DPRK, the Security to conclude negotiations on the Agreement for Council has not adopted political, military or eco- the Prohibition of the Production of Fissionable nomic sanctions. Six-party talks involving the DPRK, Material for Nuclear Weapons and for Other Nuclear Republic of Korea, China, Japan, Russia and the USA Explosive Device (the so-called cut-off agreement) have reached agreements on their road of negoti- and the adoption of any other measure to move for- ation, including the shutdown of specified nuclear ward nuclear disarmament at the multilateral level. facilities with the verification of IAEA inspectors. These obstacles have been evident in practice. The NPT has no internal mechanism to respond to a Reinforcing Nuclear Safeguards potential breach of its provisions. This is left to the In 1997, the adoption of the Additional Protocol to IAEA Board of Governors. If the Board finds grounds IAEA safeguards agreements enlarged the scope for non-compliance that warrants further action of nuclear verification. All NPT States have the in the interests of international peace and security, obligation to sign and ratify the Additional Protocol, it has the obligation to inform the United Nations which grants the IAEA broader inspection rights, Security Council. including the right to visit facilities beyond those that a State has declared in line with its NPT safeguards Since the 1990s, the IAEA has reported three serious agreement. cases of non-compliance to the Security Council. They have involved Iraq, the Democratic People’s However, it is important to stress that the strength- Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea), and Iran. ened IAEA system does not include so-called chal- Concerning Iraq, the Security Council approved lenge inspections — such as those found in the the application of military and economic sanctions global verification system for chemical weapons. Exchanging information regarding all Withdrawal of all nuclear weapons types of nuclear weapons in military deployed in the territory of a third non- ➎ arsenals, without exception; ➑ nuclear-weapon country; Applying IAEA safeguards to all fission- Deleting from all military doctrines any able and other nuclear materials for the and all reference to the use of nuclear ➏ production of nuclear weapons; ➒ weapons; and Definitive suspension of all nuclear Suspending production and testing of tests, while awaiting entry into force of intercontinental multiple warhead bal- ➐ the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban ➓ listic missiles and cruise missiles that Treaty; can carry nuclear warheads. IAEA Bulletin 49-2 | March 2008 | 53 A Safer World | Burying the Nuclear Sword In my view, this shortcoming should be remedied in my view would reduce considerably the risk of as part of work to further strengthen IAEA safe- nuclear proliferation. guards for nuclear non-proliferation and disar- mament. The work includes a set of confidence- building measures that in my view should be Eliminating Nuclear Weapons considered by States, including those that already NPT non-nuclear-weapon States should use all pos- possess nuclear weapons. (See box, ‘Ten Steps sible and appropriate international fora, including Toward Trust’). the IAEA, the United Nations General Assembly and the NPT Review Conferences, to press all nuclear- weapon States (China, France, Russia, UK, USA, Israel, Challenge Inspections Pakistan, India, as well as North Korea) to accelerate IAEA Member States should consider so-called chal- progress toward the elimination of nuclear weap- lenge inspections in any future modification of the ons. They should be pressed to begin, as soon as safeguards system, in order to expand the scope of possible, the implementation, step-by-step, of a set the ‘special inspection’ that the Director General of confidence-building measures, in order to cre- can already request under existing provisions. Such ate the necessary conditions to initiate, in the near challenge inspections would expand upon mea- future, a negotiation process toward the complete sures incorporated in the Additional Protocol, and elimination, once and for all, of all nuclear weapons No Nukes for Old Enemies 2007 poll, conducted in the US and Russia, The WorldPublicOpinion.org poll was developed in finds robust support for a series of cooper- conjunction with the Center for International and Aative steps to reduce nuclear dangers and Security Studies at the USA’s University of Maryland move toward the global elimination of nuclear (CISSM) and fielded by Knowledge Networks in the weapons. US and the Levada Center in Russia. Large majorities of Americans and Russians favor The goal of eliminating all nuclear weapons, estab- taking nuclear weapons off high alert, sharply cut- lished in the world’s Nuclear Non-Proliferation ting the numbers of nuclear weapons, banning the Treaty (NPT), is endorsed by 73% of Americans and production of weapons-grade nuclear material, and 63 % of Russians. Around 79% of Americans and 66 — once advanced methods of international verifi- % of Russians want their governments to do more cation are established — undertaking the complete to pursue this objective. In the USA, majorities of elimination of nuclear weapons. both Democrats and Republicans agree on these points, although the Democratic majorities are These steps correspond to key elements of a plan larger. for A World Free of Nuclear Weapons, developed by a bipartisan group that includes two former US secre- Steven Kull, Director of WorldPublicOpinion.org, taries of state (George Schultz and Henry Kissinger), a commented: “In contrast to the growing tension former US defense secretary (William Perry) and the between their governments, publics in the US and former chairman of the US Senate Armed Services Russia
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