Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management
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Research Report Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management Forrest E. Morgan, David T. Orletsky, Ryan Henry, Roger C. Molander, Ely Ratner, Robert J. Reardon, Heather Peterson, Harun Dogo, Jessica Hart, Lisa Saum-Manning C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR974 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-8909-0 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2015 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org In Memoriam Roger C. Molander (1940–2012) Roger Molander, a beloved colleague and senior member of our team, passed away during this study. Roger had a long and distinguished career selflessly devoting his talents to the betterment of humanity. A consummate analyst, mentor, and humanitarian, he devoted his life to safeguarding the United States, first as a senior staff member on the National Security Council and later as a grassroots champion, educating the public on the dangers of nuclear war. He finished his career as a senior researcher at RAND, providing insightful and cogent analysis to help inform and guide the decisions of senior leaders in the Department of Defense and the U.S. government on nuclear policy issues. Ever brilliant, warm, and witty, his presence is deeply missed. iii Preface A growing number of potential adversaries of the United States have concluded that acquiring nuclear weapons is in their best interest. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has demonstrated an ability to displace the ruling regime of virtually any state that is not nuclear- armed. In response, potential adversaries have sought nuclear weapons to deter the United States from attempting regime change, thereby freeing them to act in ways that might threaten U.S. interests or U.S. regional friends and allies. These developments raise serious risks of escalation should U.S. leaders find it necessary to intervene in regional crises or conflicts. This report addresses the challenges associated with potential confrontations between the United States and emergent nuclear-armed regional adversaries—that is, hostile states with small nuclear arsenals. It examines prospects for neutralizing their nuclear capabilities via combinations of offensive and defensive options at varying levels of opponent nuclear development and managing escalation risks in conventional wars with them across a range of scenarios. This research offers insights for air and space power strategy and should inform military operations and national security policy more generally. It should be of interest to those within the U.S. government and others who are involved in or follow the development of U.S. goals, strategy, and policy with respect to future nuclear weapon–related problems. It builds on previous work that RAND Project AIR FORCE has conducted examining the risks of escalation and the potential impacts of U.S. policy in the global security environment: • War and Escalation in South Asia, John E. Peters, James Dickens, Derek Eaton, C. Christine Fair, Nina Hachigian, Theodore W. Karasik, Rollie Lal, Rachel M. Swanger, Gregory F. Treverton, and Charles Wolf, Jr., MG-367-1-AF, 2006 • Striking First: Preemptive and Preventive Attack in U.S. National Security Policy, Karl P. Mueller, Jasen J. Castillo, Forrest E. Morgan, Negeen Pegahi, and Brian Rosen, MG-403- AF, 2006 • Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century, Forrest E. Morgan, Karl P. Mueller, Evan S. Medeiros, Kevin L. Pollpeter, and Roger Cliff, MG-614-AF, 2008 • The Challenge of Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries, David Ochmanek and Lowell H. Schwartz, MG-671-AF, 2008. The research described here was commissioned by AF/A3/5 and AF/A8 and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year (FY) 2012–2013 project “Confronting Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries.” v RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. The research reported here was prepared under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force in September 2012. The draft report, issued on February 26, 2014, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts. vi Contents In Memoriam ................................................................................................................................. iii Preface ............................................................................................................................................. v Figures and Table ........................................................................................................................... ix Summary ........................................................................................................................................ xi Acknowledgments ...................................................................................................................... xxiii 1. An Emerging National Security Challenge ................................................................................. 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose of This Research ...................................................................................................................... 3 Research Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 4 How This Report Is Organized .............................................................................................................. 7 2. Bringing the Challenge into Focus ............................................................................................. 9 The Blurred Nuclear Threshold ............................................................................................................. 9 Third-Party Considerations ................................................................................................................. 10 These Factors Increase Risks of Conflict Escalation .......................................................................... 11 Dilemmas for U.S. Decisionmakers .................................................................................................... 12 3. Assessing the Neutralization Options ....................................................................................... 17 The Adversary’s Range of Options ..................................................................................................... 18 Potential Ways to Neutralize an Adversary’s Nuclear Capabilities .................................................... 20 Concluding Observations .................................................................................................................... 26 4. Managing Escalation in Crisis and War .................................................................................... 29 The Principles of Threshold Management .......................................................................................... 29 Managing Escalation in Three Geostrategic Challenges ..................................................................... 38 Looking at the Larger Picture .............................................................................................................. 51 5. Meeting the Challenge .............................................................................................................. 53 The Regional Nuclear Paradox ........................................................................................................... 53 Crafting Strategies for Escalation Management .................................................................................