The Howey Political Report Is Published by Newslink the Most Recent Polling - a South Bend Tribune/WSBT Sur- Inc

Thursday, October 26, 2000 ! Volume 7, Number 13 Page 1 of 9 Kernan TV spot The brings talk of 2004 Howey !"#$%&'()*%+,%&-).%+,/'0,%1",%$1'0. By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis David McIntosh is running TV ads featuring George W. Bush talking about education, and another featuring his Political wife, Ruthie. Gov. Frank O’Bannon’s final campaign is up on the air featuring ... Lt. Gov. Joe Kernan. It could be the first time Report an LG candidate has been thrust into such a prominent role in the homestretch of a campaign, for it didn’t happen with Bob Orr, John Mutz, Bob Green, or O’Bannon himself. If The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink the most recent polling - a South Bend Tribune/WSBT sur- Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the vey showing O’Bannon up 15 percent - holds, then what political process in Indiana. Hoosiers are seeing is the opening shot of the 2004 campaign. Brian A. Howey, publisher Kernan’s profile in the O’Bannon administration has Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer gradually increased over the past four years. But his name Jack E. Howey, editor ID is low despite his first run for statewide office in 1996 The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 and his regional familiarity in Michiana after serving as PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-466-0993 mayor of South Bend. Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 The TV ad shows Kernan as a Navy flight officer and [email protected] then as a POW in Vietnam. “As a flight officer and POW in www.howeypolitics.com Vietnam and a businessman back here in Indiana I think I've learned something about character and leadership. For the Washington office: 202-775-3242; Business Office: 317-254-0535. past four years its been my privilege to work with Frank O'Bannon as your Lieutenant Governor. And I've had the Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or opportunity to see up close what kind of leader he is. He's fax. Call 317-254-1533. always in there fighting for Hoosier families whether it’s © 2000, The Howey Political Report. All rights jobs or improving education or being the first governor in reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or America to take action and suspend the gas tax. I know reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- Frank O'Bannon is the type of leader we can trust with our tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without consent of the publisher. future.” Continued on page 2

“It’s going to be an unbelievably close Ticker Tape: Bush lead grows here p. 2 election...” Congress: Bailey’s weird campaign p. 4 Horse Race: GW moves McIntosh’s - DNC National Chairman Joe Andrew, on the numbers; Chocola pressing presidential race, to CNN. Roemer; House update p. 6 In Our 7th Year of Covering the Golden Age of Hoosier Politics Thursday, Oct. 26, 2000 Page 2 of 9

BUSH INDIANA LEAD WIDENS: A poll released by the South Bend Tribune/ WSBT-TV on Thursday showed Republican George W. Bush surging ahead of Vice President Al Gore in Indiana, leading 54 to 38 percent with 6 percent undecided.

PRESIDENTIAL RACE TIGHTENS UP IN NUMER- OUS POLLS: Literally hours after Republican George W. election. Bush opened up what Kernan, from page 1 However, the removal of welfare appeared to be a significant With the O’Bannon-Kernan ticket poised from property taxes to the general fund 8-point lead, Reuters/NBC will have only a tiny benefit for rural showed Al Gore with a 45 to for victory, the Kernan ad leads most wide eyes to the 2001 legislative session. counties and small towns. It will never 43 percent lead on Wednes- sell there. That part of the plan is aimed at day; and CBS/New York the urban areas of Lake County, South Times had Bush up 46 to 44 Calm before the storm Bend, Fort Wayne, Terre Haute, on Monday. CNN reported, As far as Indiana gubernatorial pol- Indianapolis and Evansville. “The daily poll of 769 likely itics go, this election is an anomaly - the A second part of the plan - the voters conducted October calm before the storm. The 2001 legisla- Shelter Allowance - will almost certainly 20-22 paints a now familiar tive session loaded with Daylight Savings be struck down by Tax Court Judge picture -- likely voters mov- Time, reapportionment, utility reform and Thomas Fisher and the Indiana Supreme ing to George W. Bush in regulation, and reassessment promises to Court (according to economists Morton the immediate aftermath of push six months in time and unending a debate but quickly moving Marcus and Bill Styring), essentially controversy back to a neck-and-neck dooming the second primary thrust of the HPR’s analysis of the most explo- race after a few days. Bush governor’s plan. sive public policy and political issue in a is down four points since the weekend, and Gore's generation - reassessment - is that A Democratic state? support has risen by three O’Bannon’s “Taxpayer Protection Plan” is With O’Bannon’s probable re-elec- points in the same time. probably going to be dead on arrival. The tion giving Indiana 16 consecutive years That's virtually the same fact that McIntosh ruined his credibility of Democratic gubernatorial rule, control pattern that occurred after on the issue by shoe-horning late statistics of the House and repportionment, the big the first debate, when Bush to match his snappy but errant sloganeer- city mayoralties, and the prospect of the built an 8-point lead in the ing - Property taxes have doubled (they pitbull Kernan on the 2004 horizon, days after his initial match haven’t); 25 percent property tax cut, Indiana is on the verge of becoming not a with Gore, only to see his guaranteed (a huge reality stretch if B. Republican state, not even a swing state, advantage drop to a too- Patrick Bauer controls Ways and Means) - but a Democratic state. close-to-call 3-point edge by has given O’Bannon a huge political Kernan is undefeated as a politi- Continued on page 3 reprieve and just about ensures his re- cian, has a personality that ranges from Page 3 of 9 Thursday, Oct. 26, 2000

2000 Gubernatorial Race Polling Sequences HPR/TR Star/13 WISH SBT/22 JMA HPR/TR WISH SBT/22 6/10-15 8/24-27 9/9-10 9/18 9/24-25 9/30-10/1 10/10 10/12

O’Bannon 44 50 44 48 48 46 46 49 the following week. In fact, McIntosh 40 29 26 33 34 38 26 34 the basic story since Labor Day is that neither candi- Horning 3 -- 1 -- 1 4 2 2 date has been able to hold onto a lead for more than a Others ------2 ------few days at a time. It is important to note that Undecided 13 21 29 17 17 12 26 15 although Gore has gained POLLWATCH: HPR/TeleResearch will poll the statewide races this some ground, it is too soon weekend. The latest statewide polling - South Bend Tribune/WSBT bold- to say whether this is a tem- porary phenomenon or a faced in the last column - shows O’Bannon gaining three points and fundamental change among McIntosh slipping by four points from the last HPR/TeleResearch Poll. As likely voters.” On the for the intervening WISH/Vargus polling, Republican Rex Early said on Electoral College race, CNN Indiana Week in Review last Friday, “Of all the polls not to be believed, estimates that Bush leads in Brian Vargus is the least believable. He’s never been right. He couldn’t states with 209 votes, Gore find his Dad in a room full of Chinamen.” " is ahead in states with 175 votes and 14 states are con- sidered tossups. affectionate to pugnacious,and is a gifted year to take care of the reassessment issue orator with an All-American resume with once and for all. It was an opportunity he TECH GROWTH AND added hero status. passed up in 1997 and was poised to com- POLITICIANS: Indiana's The fly in this ointment for Indiana promise his re-election bid this year. political campaigners have Democrats could be the reassessment The full burden of reassessment tried to claim they can issue. If the governor’s Taxpayer Prot- will hit homeowners in 2003. Taking any transform Indiana's econo- ection Plan fails and the expected 30 per- bitter medicine in 2001 and giving time my into a high tech model. But there are those in the cent tax increases are passed on to home- for Kernan to spin it would give the business community who owners, then Kernan could find himself as Democrats an opportunity to create a new believe the fastest way to popular as Lt. Gov. Richard O. Ristine political order in Indiana. achieve that goal is for was back in 1964. Ristine cast the tie- politicians to stay out of the breaking vote in the Senate on the bill that Second shot for McIntosh? picture (Peter Schnitzer, established the state’s income tax in 1963 The one broad assumption, should Indianapolis Business and was subsequently relegated to politi- O’Bannon fail to prevail, is that McIntosh Journal). Brian Williams, cal oblivion. executive director of the will be a rare Hoosier politician who research and lobbying What Kernan and Indiana Demo- could be afforded a second shot at the crats have to be hoping for is an embold- group TechNet Indiana, governor’s office. Any protracted wran- believes technology growth ened O’Bannon coming out forcefully in gling over reassessment and any resulting will need help from both 2001 with a comprehensive restructuring big increases in property taxes for home- political parties, but the of the Indiana tax code in order to com- owners would allow McIntosh to re- politicians may be less pete with states like Michigan, where emerge in 2003 (possibly from the important to that growth Gov. John Engler revamped the tax sys- Hudson Institute) saying the proverbial “I than they think. Keenan R. tem there half a decade ago. The governor told you so.” " Hauke, president and gener- will have to threaten to hold legislative al partner of Samex Capital feet to the August fire and use every bit of Partners LLC said the politi- political capital he earns on Nov. 8 of this continued on page 4 Thursday, Oct. 26, 2000 Page 4 of 9

Bailey to RNC: Hello? Wanna win the House? By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis where he was almost defeated. McClos- MARK SCHOEFF JR. in Washington key’s name ID was low in 1984 despite “I’m gonna win!” declared 9th CD two years in office because the 8th was cians should step out of the Republican Michael Bailey to HPR on tough to communicate in. When Ronald way of the private sector. Wednesday. Reagan carried the 8th by 50,000 votes in "You have to let the free Then came this observation of the 1984, it was almost enough to sweep market work," he said. Republican National Committee, which McCloskey away. George W. Bush is in a has refused to fund his race. “I’m frustrat- similar situation to do that to Al Gore in CLINTON STUMPS FOR ed with the national committee,” Bailey the 9th this year. JULIA: President Bill said. “It’s like, Hello! Wanna win the Bailey has been conspicuous in Clinton, seeking a home- strange and different ways. He’s printed stretch role on behalf of House?” Vice President Al Gore, Is a Bailey victory over U.S. Rep. up and deliver campaigned for U.S. Rep. Baron Hill possible? Hill, with the 550,000 Julia Carson Saturday at the $300,000 to $3,000 money lead? Hill, Bailey for Life Indiana State Fairgrounds. who has sent his top campaign staff across newspapers. "We tried it their way for 12 the Ohio River to other battles? His signs have years and we tried it our The 9th CD has the potential for popped up like spring dandelions all over way for eight years. Our being a tough one for a first-termer the district - 13,000 yard signs, including way works better," Clinton because of its size and because it’s trend- 2,000 in both Clark and Floyd counties. told the crowd of about ing Republican. Bush and Lugar both He said “rank and file” union mem- 5,000 people. "I'm telling bers upset with NAFTA, GATT and trade you, this is a huge election. have more than 20-point leads in the 9th, You can't afford for anybody according to Republican and Democrat with China distributed a significant per- to tell you it doesn't matter sources. It is a huge district with 21 coun- centage of his newspapers and yard signs. whether they vote and for ties that can take up to five hours to cross He’s received other help from the Right to whom they vote. Test by car. The Indianapolis, Louisville and Life and home schoolers. scores are up. Dropout Cincinnati TV markets are expensive. Bailey, a former advertiser, has rates are down. The high Bailey’s name ID, because of his raised $140,000 for the cycle and believes school graduation rate is past controversies (the 1992 aborted fetus the newspapers and yard signs will be as up. The college-going rate TV ads), may be close to Hill’s. Said one effective as the 30 and 60-second sound- is at an all-time high. We bites. “I do TV and radio for a living. I’m went from 14 states to 49 Democratic observer, “We know he is a well aware of how this works,” Bailey states with strong academic little crazy. But average voters are just standards that will be remembering his name.” said. “I had to be efficient with my applied to all students in all The 9th CD has been dramatically money. Hey! I know what it’s like to run schools." And then there unpredictable for the past four election and know you won’t have a chance to was the reason the cycles. Bailey has won upset primary vic- win, and this isn’t that.” President was here in the tories in 1992 and 2000. Jean Leising first place: "Because Julia almost defeated Lee Hamilton in 1994. It Baileys’ right wing polemic Carson asked me to, and I took a concentrated effort by Hamilton to Although Bailey has talked about a always do what she asks," pull Hill from a 10-point deficit in 1998 in the President said. "Cong- whole range of issues in his campaign, his resswoman Carson moves the final week. If Hamilton emerges for an reputation as a right-wing polemicist pre- like a stealth bomber for extended stumping tour, or Hill goes up cedes him. He is still defined by the Indiana in Washington. with attack TV in the final week, that will graphic abortion television ads he ran in She's got more moves than be a real sign that Hill is running scared. 1992. Even in an election year in which Larry Bird and Isiah Thomas the Republicans are fighting to maintain put together." The McCloskey ‘84 parallel their six-seat majority in the House, the There are historic parallels. In the national GOP keeps Bailey at arms length. KNIGHT ON JOURNALISTS: "This is a race we continue to mon- Former IU basketball coach neighboring 8th CD, it was Frank McCloskey’s first re-election battle (1984) itor," said Jim Wilkinson, spokesman for continued on page 5 Page 5 of 9 Thursday, Oct. 26, 2000 the National Republican Congressional policy. Committee, the House GOP campaign arm. The panel has not targeted the 9th. Unions Come Back to Hill "If there's some last-minute action, we'll Hill voted in favor of granting per- rethink our view. There would have to be manent normal trade relations to China. Bob Knight talked about solid polling data that shows this race Unions fiercely opposed the measures, journalists in Indianapolis very close and several other factors." fearing that cheap Chinese labor would on Tuesday night, saying, WCPO-TV in Cincinnati will poll the race “It never ceases to amaze in the next few days, Bailey said. mean a loss of U.S. jobs. But since the May vote, Hill seems to have mended his me how many 8th grade When pressed on whether Bailey is dropouts end up in the a candidate the GOP can embrace or one fences. He has received the endorsement press” (WTHR-TV). Editor’s that makes the party cringe, Wilkinson of the Teamsters union as well as the Note: HPR’s Brian Howey said something rarely uttered by a cam- South Central Indiana Central Labor has a BA degree in history paign spokesman: "No comment." Council, which represents about 17,000 from IU-Bloomington. That lack of enthusiasm from families in the 9th CD. BAYH RECALLS 1948 Washington is disconcerting to district "Baron has a lot of labor support," PRESIDENTIAL RACE: Sen. Republicans. "I wish the Republican con- said Angela Belden of the Hill campaign. Workers have gone to plant gates and Evan Bayh came to gressional leadership could see fit to give Southwestern Indiana on door-to-door with Hill and have volun- him a little extra boost," said Max Thursday to tell party faith- Middendorf, GOP chairman in the 9th teered for get-out-the-vote efforts. Hill ful to get out the vote for CD. "He's worked very hard and he has a will speak at a Teamsters rally on Oct. 29 Democratic Party candi- lot of people working hard for him, espe- in Louisville. dates (Susan Taylor, cially in Democratic areas like Jefferson- "Overall, Baron has a decent Evansville Courier & Press). ville and New Albany. There seems to be record," said Chuck Whobrey, president of Bayh compared the current presidential race to the one a groundswell for Bailey." Middendorf Teamsters Local 215 in Evansville. But in 1948 between Democrat said Bailey is benefiting from many $10 the memory of PNTR lingers for some workers. "Whenever you gear up for a Harry Truman and and $20 contributions and the related Republican Thomas Dewey. enthusiasm. "Someone who gives you any fight, it is very difficult to forget all about After 12 years of Democra- kind of money is likely to vote for you. I'd it. You can't turn your emotions on and off tic President Franklin D. rather have 100 people give $10 for 100 like a water faucet." Roosevelt, Bayh said people votes than one person give $1000 for one Beyond individual constituencies, were debating whether it vote." it's hard to say how the political currents was time for a change of But Bailey's donations add up slow- will churn in the conservative-leaning dis- parties in the nation's high- est office. Nearly all of the ly. By contrast, Hill has been raking in trict. Middendorf says that he has seen polls showing GOP presidential nominee political pundits of the day money. As of Sept. 30, Hill had raised were giving the race to George W. Bush leading by 20 points and $930,652 for the cycle and had $298,931 Dewey, Bayh said. "Truman on hand. Bailey had raised $183,214 and Gov. Frank O'Bannon maintaining the didn't let that get him down. had $2,838 on hand. same edge over Rep. David McIntosh. He took his campaign Hill's money enabled him to go up "You've got a lot of people out there split- directly to the people," the on television on Oct. 18 in Evansville and ting their tickets," Middendorf said. senator said. Then Bayh Oct. 23 in Louisville. The Hill campaign is mum about took a line from Truman: Washington Democrats think Hill internal polling. "He didn't release his "I've come here tonight to ask you to vote for your- has the race won. "Congressman Hill is in polls in 1998, and we still have that poli- selves." solid shape," said John Del Ceccato, cy," said Belden. The incumbent isn't feel- spokesman for the DCCC. "He has proven ing an undertow from Gore. "Baron is NO PAYBACK FOR 1-69: Bill to be a perfect fit for that district." running his own campaign. In southern Styring, a senior fellow at In a National Journal survey cover- Indiana, all politics is very local." the Hudson Institute and ing 1999 votes, Hill was ranked as more Hill told the Louisville Courier- one of the most respected liberal than 60 percent of the House on Journal, “I feel very confident, but I’m economic issues and 55 percent on foreign not overconfident.” " continued on page 6 Thursday, Oct. 26, 2000 Page 6 of 9 Indiana 2000 Racing Form TRENDLINES: Check out the HPR Pre-Election Briefing Series at 11 a.m. Wednesday, Nov. 1, at the Columbia Club in Indianapolis; and 11 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 2, at the Downtown Holiday Inn in South Bend for fresh TeleResearch polling on all Hoosier economists, said a statewide races. The race for the Indiana House appears to be tightening up, particularly new I-69 following a direct along the Illinois line. We think Democrats Bob Kuzman, John Frenz and possibly route from Bloomington to Jonathon Weinzapfel are in for a heart-thumping election night. Same, perhaps, for Bob Evansville would not be Bischoff, trying to fend off a Jean Leising comeback. The Republicans appear to be worth its cost (Tim Starks, diligently defending Rich McClain in Cass and Carroll counties, and the Jeff Linder Evansville Courier & Press). seat in Shelbyville. Republican Bob Buell and Democrats Dale Sturtz and Peggy Welch He spoke to a gathering of all have a slight edge. Until we poll, we don’t have a realistic feel for whether supporters of an I-69 following I-70 and U.S. 41 through Bush/Lugar or O’Bannon will have coattails that extend to statewide and legislative Terre Haute. Styring said the races. Gov. Bayh always had big legislative coattails (3 to 6 seats). The House, at 53-47 idea of putting out capital now, could conceiveably end up anywhere from 50/50 to 56-44 Democrat. Stay tuned. for a new terrain route now in order to get future benefits doesn't make financial GOVERNOR, congressional races Republican: U.S. Rep. David McIntosh. Democrat: Gov. Frank sense. "It's kind of like if Governor: you said, 'Loan me a dollar O’Bannon. Libertarian: Andrew Horning. 1996 Results: O’Bannon 1,107,342, Goldsmith now and I'll pay you a dollar 997,505, Dillon 35,261. 2000 Forecast: The Great Gas Tax Suspension - the shrewdest use of back in 25 years. A dollar incumbency in recent memory - ended Wednesday won't be worth as much night. Gas stations see huge lines on eve of tax then.'" returning. Prices will increase about 6 cents a gal- lon. A South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV poll (Oct. SOUDER WANTS MORE 12-14, 602 registered voters statewide, +/- 4 percent) shows O’Bannon with a 49 to 34 percent DRILLING: In his first radio lead over McIntosh. Horning polled 2 percent and 15 percent were undecided. O’Bannon’s advertisement of the cam- fav/unfav rating stood at 58/25 and McIntosh stood at 47/33. “McIntosh just is not moving,” paign, U.S. Rep. Mark said pollster Del Ali of Research 2000. “He’s not moving up. He’s not pulling O’Bannon down.” Souder advocated drilling The poll revealed that O’Bannon has a 22-point lead among women while 19 percent of the for more oil in the U.S., women remained undecided. O’Bannon also led in all six regions of the state, including the building more pipelines and Indianapolis area. Democrats tell HPR they believe O’Bannon will carry Marion County, just as refineries, and using more he did in 1996. The McIntosh campaign says their ad featuring George W. Bush talking about ethanol (Sylvia A. Smith, Fort Wayne Journal education is “moving the numbers” and insist the race is tightening up. McIntosh told the Gazette). It was the first Indianapolis Star that he will serve only one term if he can’t deliver on his 25-percent property mention by either Souder or tax cut. “I would feel I had not kept my word and I would not seek re-election,” McIntosh said. Democrat Mike Foster, his The Republican said he thought about making the one-term promise a TV ad, but said, “I was a opponent, of energy as a little worried it would appear gimmicky.” O’Bannon and McIntosh have raised $18.8 million, concern. breaking the 1996 record of O’Bannon and Stephen Goldsmith at $18.5 million, the Indianapolis Star reported. O’Bannon has raised $10.2 million and McIntosh has raised $8.7 LIEBERMAN TALKS ABOUT million. O’Bannon has $3.1 million in the bank and McIntosh has $1.1 million. Libertarian FAITH AT NOTRE DAME: Andrew Horning has raised about $16,000. Status: Leans O’Bannon. Democratic Vice U.S. Senate: Republican: U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar. Democrat: David L. Johnson. Presidential candidate Joe Libertarian: Paul Hager. 1988 results: Lugar (R) 1,430,525, Wickes (D) 668,778. 1994 Lieberman talked about results: Lugar (R) 1,039,625, Jontz (D) 470,799, Bourland (L) 17,343, Barton (A) 15,801. 2000 faith in America at a University of Notre Dame Forecast: In a poll released by the South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV on Thursday Lugar had a speech billed as a major commanding lead over Democrat David Johnson, 69 to 18 percent. The campaign of Gov. Frank policy address. “I believe O’Bannon didn’t seem too alarmed by the big Republican numbers. Tom New, O'Bannon's cam- our best hope for rekindling paign manager, said, "Twenty-five years ago I would have been more concerned.” But he point- the American spirit and ed out that there now is extensive ticket-splitting in Indiana, with Democrats winning the past Page 7 of 9 Thursday, Oct. 26, 2000 three governor races -- Evan Bayh in 1988 and 1992 and O'Bannon in 1996 -- even though Republican presidential candidates were carrying the state big in all of those years.The final debate between Lugar and Johnson in Elkhart centered on the incumbent’s record on Medicare. Johnson accused Lugar of wanting to take $270 billion from Medicare and direct the money to tax cuts (Associated Press). Lugar said after the debate, “The record will show I voted for a 6- percent increase in Medicare that year, the same agreed to in a bipartisan way in 1997,” Lugar said, adding that Johnson’s figures were “a stretch of the imagination.” If you missed the C- SPAN broadcast see: http://www.c span.org/campaign2000/Sendebates.asp. Scroll down until reclaiming our American val- ues is to have faith again,” you see "Indiana Senatorial Debate" and click. To view, you must have RealPlayer installed. Lieberman said (Kevin Friends of Dick Lugar has campaign assets of more than $2 million for the last reporting peri- Rader, WTHR/ Indi-anapolis od, including $461,376.64 cash-on-hand and $1,568,656 in pre-paid media during the closing Star). Lieberman called for days of the campaign. Status: Safe Lugar. the entertainment industry to Congressional District 2: Republican: Mike Pence. Democrat: Robert Rock Jr. reduce the amount of vio- Independent: Bill Frazier. Geography: Muncie, Anderson, Richmond, Shelbyville, Columbus lence and explicit sex in and East Central Indiana. 1994 Results: McIntosh 93,592, Hogsett 78,241. 1996 Results: films and TV shows. McIntosh 122,288, Carmichael (D) 83,478, Zimmerman (L) 4,662. 1998 Results: McIntosh Lieberman was interrupted by a heckler, who called out, (R) 99,584, Boles (D) 62,426, Federle (L) 2,236. 2000 Forecast: Frazier began a huge TV buy “What about abortion?” over the weekend at about $110,000 a week. He told local TV and radio stations to “match Lieberman responded, Pence.” Pence said he will be up over 1,000 gross rating points a week through Election Day. “You’ve made your point and Pence started a TV ad Sunday featuring his wife, Karen, saying “Everything I know about edu- I respect that. I ask only that cation, I learned from my wife.” Pence dropped mail aimed at 44,000 senior citizen house- you respect my right to con- holds last weekend and 75,000 households this week. Status: Likely Pence. tinue to speak.” Republican: Chris Chocola. Democrat: U.S. Rep. Tim Congressional District 3: POLL SAYS CLINTON Roemer. Geography: South Bend, Mishawaka, Elkhart, Northern Indiana. 1994 results: WOULD HURT GORE: The Roemer 72,497, Burkett 58,787. 1996 Results: Roemer 114,381, Zakas (R) 80,748, Taylor (L) latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup 2,331. 1998 Results: Roemer 84,625, Holtz 61,041. 2000 Forecast: This is a potentially tracking poll indicates 58 volatile race; Roemer is most vulnerable in a presidential year. A poll released by the Elkhart percent of Americans Truth showed Roemer with a 44.5 percent to 37.6 percent lead over Chocola. The poll was approve of the job Clinton is conducted by the IU Public Opinion Laboratory of 407 registered voters from Oct. 12-14, +/- doing as president. But after error rate of 5 percent. The Chocola campaign was designed to peak right at Election Day. surviving impeachment more Chocola may be benefiting from a lot of George Bush TV advertising in the South Bend media than a year ago, Clinton market aimed at Southwestern Michigan. Roemer is running “defensive” TV ads. Meanwhile, trails Gore in the number of Chocola said his opponent's contention that he is profiting by lending his campaign $225,000 people who view him favor- is "a little absurd" (Jack Colwell, South Bend Tribune). Roemer claimed Chocola would make ably. CNN reported that overall, 17 percent of all voters a profit if the loan were repaid at the 8 percent rate listed in Chocola's campaign expense say they would be more like- report. Chocola said legal counsel and a CPA advised him that the loan interest was legal. ly to vote for Gore if Clinton There has been no complaint to the FEC. Status: LEANS ROEMER. were to campaign for the Congressional District 5: Republican: U.S. Rep. Steve Buyer. Democrat: Greg vice president. But 40 per- Goodnight. Libertarian: Scott Benson. Geography: Kokomo, Marion, Peru, Monticello, cent said they were less like- Lowell, Northern Indiana. 1994 results: Buyer 108,575, Beatty 43,619, Alfred (L) 3,328. ly to vote for Gore with 1996 Results: Buyer 133,604, Clark (D) 67,125, Lehman (L) 5,255. 1998 Results: Buyer (R) Clinton stumping for him, and 40 percent said that 101,567, Steele 58,504 (D), Waters (L) 2,317. 2000 Forecast: Buyer polling shows him with would have no effect. Among a big lead in Kokomo. AFL-CIO’s Ken Zeller tells HPR that Goodnight will surge. Big Three independent voters, the net UAW contract gives autoworkers Election Day off. Status: Likely Buyer. loss for Gore could be far Congressional District 8: Republican: U.S. Rep. John Hostettler. Democrat: greater: Gallup's survey indi- Dr. Paul Perry. Libertarian: Tom Tindel. Geography: Evansville, Bloomington, Vincennes cated that 45 percent of inde- and SW Indiana. 1994 results: Hostettler (R) 93,529, McCloskey (D) 84,857. 1996 Results: pendents would be less like- Hostettler (R) 109,582, Weinzapfel (D) 106,134, Hager (L) 3,799. 1998 Results: Hostettler (R) ly to vote for the vice presi- 92,227, Riecken (D) 81,381, Hager (L) 3,395. 2000 Forecast: Perry picked up the endorse- dent if Clinton were to cam- continued on page 8 Thursday, Oct. 26, 2000 Page 8 of 9

ment of the FOP in large part due to Hostettler’s recent vote against domestic violence legisla- tion. First Lady Judy O’Bannon appeared at the endorsement press conference in Evansville and said, “I was not asked to be here today. Instead I had my staff call down to Dr. Perry’s campaign and tell them I wanted to speak about this important issue. Domestic violence is an issue that touches all families and every aspect of our community. While the Congressman has turned his backs to the needs of women, I know that in Dr. Perry we have found someone we can trust and paign for him, while only 10 depend on.” Hostettler was one of only three members of Congress to vote against the Violence percent said they would be Against Women Act while 415 voted yes. Said Michael Cook of the FOP, “This was a bill that more likely to support Gore. benefits women who are victims of violence from their spouses or boyfriends. I just do not Another 37 percent of inde- understand how a Congressman could vote against a bill that funded for counseling, shelters and pendents said Clinton's toll free hotlines and additional domestic violence officers.” Out of 834 crimes in Evansville last efforts would make no dif- January, 126 were reported as incidents of domestic violence. The Evansville Courier & Press ference. President Clinton appeared in Indianapolis has endorsed Perry. The newspaper had endorsed Hostettler in 1996 and again in 1998. The edi- last Saturday, officially to torial reads: “In 1994, when John Hostettler was first elected 8th District congressman, he was a stump for U.S. Rep. Julia man for that time. He was a part of the Republican revolution of 1994, the one that brought the Carson. However, Clinton GOP control of Congress and, most important, forced Washington to accept the concept of fiscal enthusiastically endorsed restraint. We were not so alert to Hostettler's potential in 1994, but in 1996 and 1998, we recog- the candidacies of Gore and nized the value of sending an absolute fiscal conservative back to Washington, in great part as a Gov. Frank O’Bannon, who counterbalance to the Democratic administration. We endorsed his re-election. Hostettler has was not present. not changed; he is, today, that same strict fiscal disciplinarian. But we believe the times have changed. The complex issues surrounding Social Security and Medicare will be solved only by PRESIDENTIAL TRACKING congressional representatives willing to abandon hard partisan positions that have prevailed in BACK TO DEAD HEAT: recent years. Neither of the two main 8th District candidates - Hostettler and Democrat Paul CNN/USA Today/Gallup has Perry - would go to Washington and individually decide these issues. Neither would wave a the presidential race back to dead heat status after magic vote and make things right. But we do believe that the issues will be decided by consen- Republican George W. Bush sus. In that vein, compromise has never struck us as a part of Hostettler's nature.” The editorial had pulled out to an 8-point concluded: “But for this conservative, if somewhat politically schizophrenic, 8th District, Perry lead over the weekend. The is probably a good fit - a conservative Democrat who opposes abortion and gun control. He latest three-day tracking has would be, in our view, the right congressman for this district at this time.” This race will tighten Gore leading, 46 to 45 per- up in closing days. Status: LEANS HOSTETTLER. cent. Reuters/MSNBC tracking has Gore up, 47 to 44 INDIANA HOUSE races percent. House District 19: Republican: Ron Johnson. Democrat: Rep. Bob Kuzman. Geography: Crown Point, south Lake County. 1994 results: Conlon (R) 8,850, McCall (D) HENDRICKS COUNTY BANS 5,280. 1996 Results: Kuzman (D) 12,236, Sparks (R) 10,453. 1998 Results: Kuzman 9,130, RU-486 COVERAGE: The Gasparovic (R) 6,917. 2000 Forecast: Our sense is that this had turned into a real dogfight and Hendricks County Commis- is a pure tossup. Kuzman and Johnson found much to disagree about during a debate at sioners voted unanimously Merrillville Wednesday (Susan Erler, Times of Northwest Indiana). Johnson opposed dockside to ban the abortion drug gambling and favors a moratorium on additional gambling in the state. Kuzman pointed out that RU-486 from medical cover- gambling revenue has provided millions of dollars for public projects. On the issue of abortion, age for its employees Kuzman said that is one area "where the government shouldn't be involved." Johnson said he (WRTV). thought government "existed to defend the weak" and fetuses in the womb "are the weakest of them all." Status: Tossup. House District 24: Republican: Rep. Rick McClain. Democrat: Bob Sabatini. Geography: Logansport, Cass, Carroll, Miami counties. 1994 results: McClain10,421, Frantz (D) 7,686. 1996 Results: McClain 15,538. 1998 Results: McClain 10,281, Fincher (D) 7,345. " 2000 Forecast: McClain had raised $147,483, according to the pre-election fund-raising report filed Oct. 15. Democrat Bob Sabatini reported raising $103,828 (Dave Kitchell, Logansport Pharos-Tribune). Sabatini had some heart-related health problems during his term, but says he has received a clean bill of health from his cardiologist. Both candidates are running on TV and Sabatini has a radio ad by Sen. Evans Bayh on his behalf. Status: Tossup. House District 57: Republican: Mike Herndon. Democrat: J.D. Lux. Geography: Shelbyville, Shelby, Bartholomew and Rush counties. 1994 Results: Linder (R) 12,626. 1996 Results: Linder 13,730, Thayer (D) 6,704. 1998 Results: Linder 12,741. 2000 Forecast: Lux Thursday, Oct. 26, 2000 Page 9 of 9

The Howey Political Report It’s time to register for the HPR Pre-Election 2000 Briefing Series Indianapolis: 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. Wednesday, Nov. 1 at the Columbia Club. Sponsors include Baker & Daniels, DLZ, Vectren and National Graphics. Cost: $20. South Bend: 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. Thursday, Nov. 2, at the Holiday Inn in downtown South Bend. Sponsors include Baker & Daniels, DLZ, the St. Joseph County Chamber of Commerce. Cost: $15 To register, call 317-254-0535 or 317-254-1533 or e-mail us at: [email protected]

went on the attack at last week’s debate, leading Republicans to believe there will be negative fallout. Remember, former sheriffs run well. But Lux is flush with cash and we see this race going down to the wire. Status: Tossup. House District 60: Republican: John Shean. Democrat: Peggy Welch. Geography: Bloomington, Bloomfield, Lawrence. Greene and Monroe Counties. 1994 results: Bales 11,825, Anderson 5,210. 1996 Results: Bales 15,743, Germann (L) 1,931. 1998 Results: Welch 10,172, Ellington 8,987. 2000 Forecast: State government should concentrate on holding the line on taxes and improving education, Welch and Shean agree (Steve Hinnefeld, Bloomington Herald-Times). The district includes parts of Monroe, Greene and Lawrence counties. Both candidates say they have records of working to solve community problems. Shean said he favors state-funded full-day kindergarten and tax credits for private school tuition. Welch said she has voted for charter school leg- islation, opposes vouchers, but supports giving parents more choices in the public school system. Status: Leans Welch. House District 64: Republican: Eric Holcomb. Democrat: Rep. John Frenz. Geography: Knox, Pike, Davies and Gibson counties. 1994 results: McConnell (D) 10,741, Marshall (R) 7,672. 1996 Results: Frenz (D) 11,414, Krieg (R) 9,853. 1998 Results: Frenz (D) 12,623. 2000 Forecast: We sense (and this is partly reading tea leaves) that Frenz is in for a real battle. He’s out-raised Holcomb $170,000 to $112,000, but local sources say Holcomb has been an impressive candidate. Speaker John Gregg insists that he will pull Frenz through and O’Bannon will run strong in this district. Fasten your seatbelt. Status: TOSSUP. House District 76: Republican: Dan Hostettler. Democrat: Rep. Jonathon Weinzapfel. Geography: Posey, Vanderburgh counties. 1994 results: Lutz (D) 14,474. 1996 Results: Lutz (D) 13,981, Harry (R) 7,530. 1998 Results: Lutz 13,051, Germann (L) 1,303. 2000 Forecast: House Democrats insist that Weinzapfel has a 20- point lead in this race. We still think a strong race by Congressman Hostettler (the little brother), who has the best ground organization in the state, could help the Republican. Status: Tossup. House District 89: Republican: State Rep. Larry Buell. Democrat: Brian Sims. Geography: SW Indianapolis, Irvington, Beech Grove. 1994 Results: Buell (R) 9,583, Feeney (D) 5,770. 1996 Results: Buell 11,281, Osborn (D) 7,872. 1998 Results: Buell 8,235, Jeffers (D) 5,761, Hubertz (L) 230. 2000 Forecast: Sources from both parties indicate that Buell may have turned the corner on this one. However, Democrats say O’Bannon will carry Marion County and we’re going to be watching his coattails on this race. Status: Tossup. "