Thursday, October 26, 2000 ! Volume 7, Number 13 Page 1 of 9 Kernan TV spot The brings talk of 2004 Howey !"#$%&'()*%+,%&-).%+,/'0,%1",%$1'0. By BRIAN A. HOWEY in Indianapolis David McIntosh is running TV ads featuring George W. Bush talking about education, and another featuring his Political wife, Ruthie. Gov. Frank O’Bannon’s final campaign is up on the air featuring ... Lt. Gov. Joe Kernan. It could be the first time Report an LG candidate has been thrust into such a prominent role in the homestretch of a campaign, for it didn’t happen with Bob Orr, John Mutz, Bob Green, or O’Bannon himself. If The Howey Political Report is published by NewsLink the most recent polling - a South Bend Tribune/WSBT sur- Inc. Founded in 1994, The Howey Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter analyzing the vey showing O’Bannon up 15 percent - holds, then what political process in Indiana. Hoosiers are seeing is the opening shot of the 2004 cam- paign. Brian A. Howey, publisher Kernan’s profile in the O’Bannon administration has Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington writer gradually increased over the past four years. But his name Jack E. Howey, editor ID is low despite his first run for statewide office in 1996 The Howey Political Report Office: 317-254-1533 and his regional familiarity in Michiana after serving as PO Box 40265 Fax: 317-466-0993 mayor of South Bend. Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265 Mobile: 317-506-0883 The TV ad shows Kernan as a Navy flight officer and [email protected] then as a POW in Vietnam. “As a flight officer and POW in www.howeypolitics.com Vietnam and a businessman back here in Indiana I think I've learned something about character and leadership. For the Washington office: 202-775-3242; Business Office: 317-254-0535. past four years its been my privilege to work with Frank O'Bannon as your Lieutenant Governor. And I've had the Subscriptions: $250 annually via e-mail or opportunity to see up close what kind of leader he is. He's fax. Call 317-254-1533. always in there fighting for Hoosier families whether it’s © 2000, The Howey Political Report. All rights jobs or improving education or being the first governor in reserved. Photocopying, Internet forwarding, faxing or America to take action and suspend the gas tax. I know reproducing in any form, in whole or in part, is a viola- Frank O'Bannon is the type of leader we can trust with our tion of federal law and is strictly prohibited without consent of the publisher. future.” Continued on page 2 “It’s going to be an unbelievably close Ticker Tape: Bush lead grows here p. 2 election...” Congress: Bailey’s weird campaign p. 4 Horse Race: GW moves McIntosh’s - DNC National Chairman Joe Andrew, on the numbers; Chocola pressing presidential race, to CNN. Roemer; House update p. 6 In Our 7th Year of Covering the Golden Age of Hoosier Politics Thursday, Oct. 26, 2000 Page 2 of 9 BUSH INDIANA LEAD WIDENS: A poll released by the South Bend Tribune/ WSBT-TV on Thursday showed Republican George W. Bush surging ahead of Vice President Al Gore in Indiana, leading 54 to 38 percent with 6 percent undecided. PRESIDENTIAL RACE TIGHTENS UP IN NUMER- OUS POLLS: Literally hours after Republican George W. election. Bush opened up what Kernan, from page 1 However, the removal of welfare appeared to be a significant With the O’Bannon-Kernan ticket poised from property taxes to the general fund 8-point lead, Reuters/NBC will have only a tiny benefit for rural showed Al Gore with a 45 to for victory, the Kernan ad leads most wide eyes to the 2001 legislative session. counties and small towns. It will never 43 percent lead on Wednes- sell there. That part of the plan is aimed at day; and CBS/New York the urban areas of Lake County, South Times had Bush up 46 to 44 Calm before the storm Bend, Fort Wayne, Terre Haute, on Monday. CNN reported, As far as Indiana gubernatorial pol- Indianapolis and Evansville. “The daily poll of 769 likely itics go, this election is an anomaly - the A second part of the plan - the voters conducted October calm before the storm. The 2001 legisla- Shelter Allowance - will almost certainly 20-22 paints a now familiar tive session loaded with Daylight Savings be struck down by Tax Court Judge picture -- likely voters mov- Time, reapportionment, utility reform and Thomas Fisher and the Indiana Supreme ing to George W. Bush in regulation, and reassessment promises to Court (according to economists Morton the immediate aftermath of push six months in time and unending a debate but quickly moving Marcus and Bill Styring), essentially controversy back to a neck-and-neck dooming the second primary thrust of the HPR’s analysis of the most explo- race after a few days. Bush governor’s plan. sive public policy and political issue in a is down four points since the weekend, and Gore's generation - reassessment - is that A Democratic state? support has risen by three O’Bannon’s “Taxpayer Protection Plan” is With O’Bannon’s probable re-elec- points in the same time. probably going to be dead on arrival. The tion giving Indiana 16 consecutive years That's virtually the same fact that McIntosh ruined his credibility of Democratic gubernatorial rule, control pattern that occurred after on the issue by shoe-horning late statistics of the House and repportionment, the big the first debate, when Bush to match his snappy but errant sloganeer- city mayoralties, and the prospect of the built an 8-point lead in the ing - Property taxes have doubled (they pitbull Kernan on the 2004 horizon, days after his initial match haven’t); 25 percent property tax cut, Indiana is on the verge of becoming not a with Gore, only to see his guaranteed (a huge reality stretch if B. Republican state, not even a swing state, advantage drop to a too- Patrick Bauer controls Ways and Means) - but a Democratic state. close-to-call 3-point edge by has given O’Bannon a huge political Kernan is undefeated as a politi- Continued on page 3 reprieve and just about ensures his re- cian, has a personality that ranges from Page 3 of 9 Thursday, Oct. 26, 2000 2000 Gubernatorial Race Polling Sequences HPR/TR Star/13 WISH SBT/22 JMA HPR/TR WISH SBT/22 6/10-15 8/24-27 9/9-10 9/18 9/24-25 9/30-10/1 10/10 10/12 O’Bannon 44 50 44 48 48 46 46 49 the following week. In fact, McIntosh 40 29 26 33 34 38 26 34 the basic story since Labor Day is that neither candi- Horning 3 -- 1 -- 1 4 2 2 date has been able to hold onto a lead for more than a Others -- -- -- 2 -- -- -- -- few days at a time. It is important to note that Undecided 13 21 29 17 17 12 26 15 although Gore has gained POLLWATCH: HPR/TeleResearch will poll the statewide races this some ground, it is too soon weekend. The latest statewide polling - South Bend Tribune/WSBT bold- to say whether this is a tem- porary phenomenon or a faced in the last column - shows O’Bannon gaining three points and fundamental change among McIntosh slipping by four points from the last HPR/TeleResearch Poll. As likely voters.” On the for the intervening WISH/Vargus polling, Republican Rex Early said on Electoral College race, CNN Indiana Week in Review last Friday, “Of all the polls not to be believed, estimates that Bush leads in Brian Vargus is the least believable. He’s never been right. He couldn’t states with 209 votes, Gore find his Dad in a room full of Chinamen.” " is ahead in states with 175 votes and 14 states are con- sidered tossups. affectionate to pugnacious,and is a gifted year to take care of the reassessment issue orator with an All-American resume with once and for all. It was an opportunity he TECH GROWTH AND added hero status. passed up in 1997 and was poised to com- POLITICIANS: Indiana's The fly in this ointment for Indiana promise his re-election bid this year. political campaigners have Democrats could be the reassessment The full burden of reassessment tried to claim they can issue. If the governor’s Taxpayer Prot- will hit homeowners in 2003. Taking any transform Indiana's econo- ection Plan fails and the expected 30 per- bitter medicine in 2001 and giving time my into a high tech model. But there are those in the cent tax increases are passed on to home- for Kernan to spin it would give the business community who owners, then Kernan could find himself as Democrats an opportunity to create a new believe the fastest way to popular as Lt. Gov. Richard O. Ristine political order in Indiana. achieve that goal is for was back in 1964. Ristine cast the tie- politicians to stay out of the breaking vote in the Senate on the bill that Second shot for McIntosh? picture (Peter Schnitzer, established the state’s income tax in 1963 The one broad assumption, should Indianapolis Business and was subsequently relegated to politi- O’Bannon fail to prevail, is that McIntosh Journal). Brian Williams, cal oblivion. executive director of the will be a rare Hoosier politician who research and lobbying What Kernan and Indiana Demo- could be afforded a second shot at the crats have to be hoping for is an embold- group TechNet Indiana, governor’s office.