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Q3central Bank Quarterly Bulletin JULY 11 JULY Q3 Central Bank Quarterly Bulletin Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin 03 / July 11 © Central Bank of Ireland 2011 Contents Section 1 Forecast Summary Table 6 Comment 7 The Domestic Economy 9 Box A: The Impact of the Car Scrappage Scheme on Retail Sales Box B: Relative Trends in Irish Services Producer Prices An Timpeallacht Gheilleagrach 33 Financing Developments in the Irish Economy 35 Box 1: Developments in Retail Interest Rate Margins Developments in the International and Euro Area Economy 53 Box 1: Recent Developments in Euro Area Housing Markets Box 2: A Study of Irish Trade with China Recent Economic Research Publications 68 Section 2 The Rise and Fall of Sectoral Net Wealth in Ireland 70 Mary Cussen and Gillian Phelan Using the Bank Lending Survey to Understand the Recent Disruption to Financial Markets: An Overview 83 Bernard Kennedy Meeting the Statistical Challenges of Financial Innovation: Introducing New Data on Securitisation 109 Brian Godfrey and Clive Jackson Section 3 Statistical Appendix Notes 1. The permission of the Government has been obtained for the use in this Bulletin of certain material compiled by the Central Statistics Office and Government Departments. The Bulletin also contains material which has been made available by the courtesy of licensed banks and other financial institutions. 2. Unless otherwise stated, statistics refer to the State, i.e., Ireland exclusive of Northern Ireland. 3. In some cases, owing to the rounding of figures, components do not add to the totals shown. 4. The method of seasonal adjustment used in the Bank is that of the US Bureau of the Census X-11 variant. 5. Annual rates of change are annual extrapolations of specific period-to-period percentage changes. 6. The following symbols are used: e estimated n.a. not available p provisional . no figure to be expected r revised – nil or negligible q quarter f forecast 7. As far as possible, data available at end-June 2011 are included in the Statistical Appendix (Section 3). 8. Updates of selected Tables from the Statistical Appendix, concerning monetary and financial market developments, are provided in Money and Banking Statistics. Data on euro exchange rates are available on our website at www.centralbank.ie and by telephone at 353 1 2246380. Designed by: Clever Cat, Pembroke House, 28-32 Upper Pembroke Street, Dublin 2 Cover Photograph: Stuart Bradfield Enquiries relating to this Bulletin should be addressed to: Central Bank of Ireland (Publications), P.O. Box No. 559, Dame Street, Dublin 2. Phone 353 1 2246278; Fax 6716561, www.centralbank.ie [email protected] ISSN 0332-2645 Section 1 Quarterly Bulletin 03 / July 11 5 6 Forecast Summary Table 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f Real Economic Activity (% change) Personal consumer expenditure -1.1 -6.9 -0.8 -2.4 -0.6 Public consumption 0.5 -4.5 -3.8 -3.8 -3.6 Gross fixed capital formation -10.2 -28.7 -24.9 -9.9 -0.9 of which: Building and construction -8.3 -31.1 -30.3 -19.6 -6.4 Machinery and equipment -10.8 -19.7 -14.5 4.0 5.0 Exports of goods and services -1.0 -4.2 6.3 6.4 6.2 Imports of goods and services -2.9 -9.3 2.8 3.6 4.4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) -3.0 -7.0 -0.4 0.8 2.1 Gross National Product (GNP) -2.8 -9.8 0.3 -0.3 1.0 External Trade and Payments Balance-of-Payments Current Account (€ million) -10,169 -4,697 761 1,883 4,555 Current Account (% of GNP) -6.6 -3.6 0.6 1.5 3.6 Prices, Costs and Competitiveness (% change) Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) 3.1 -1.7 -1.6 1.0 0.6 of which: Goods 2.9 -4.1 -2.4 1.2 0.5 Services 3.4 1.2 -0.7 0.7 0.7 HICP excluding energy 2.6 -1.0 -2.7 -0.1 0.2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) 4.1 -4.5 -1.0 2.0 1.0 Nominal Harmonised Competitiveness Indicator 4.5 1.0 -4.2 0.2 n.a. (Nominal HCI)a Compensation per non-agricultural employee 5.6 -1.5 -3.3 -0.3 0.2 Labour Market (% change year-on-year) Total employment -1.1 -8.1 -4.2 -1.7 0.2 Labour force 0.8 -2.4 -2.2 -1.0 -0.1 Unemployment rate (ILO) 6.3 11.8 13.6 14.2 13.9 Technical Assumptionsb (Annual average) EUR/USD exchange rate 1.47 1.39 1.33 1.42 1.44 EUR/GBP exchange rate 0.80 0.89 0.86 0.88 0.90 Oil price ($ per barrel) 97.7 61.9 79.6 110.7 109.9 Interbank market – Euribor c (3-month fixed) 4.63 1.22 0.81 1.51 2.13 a Based upon the annual change in the average nominal HCI for the first six months of 2011. b The technical assumption made is that exchange rates remain unchanged at their average levels in late-June and early-July. Oil prices and interest rates are assumed to move in line with the futures market. c Euribor is the rate at which euro interbank term deposits are offered by one prime bank to another, within the euro area. Daily data from 30 December 1998 are available from www.euribor.org. 7 Comment Against the background of what is, at the time of writing, still an unresolved euro area crisis of the public finances and of Sovereign debt markets, the gradual consolidation of the Irish public finances and the accelerated steps in recapitalisation and reorganisation of the banking system have not prevented a remarkable widening of spreads on Irish Government debt. The step by step return to a sustainable financial and fiscal situation (as confirmed by the EU Commission, ECB and IMF), is nevertheless building the foundations indispensable for future growth. Taking a broad view, the period since the last commodity price movements, re-emerging Quarterly Bulletin has not been marked by any global imbalances and sovereign debt further significant overall weakening of the Irish concerns more generally. macroeconomic indicators, while revised official data for 2010 indicates a somewhat Given these external developments and, better outturn for the main GDP and GNP indeed, the extent of fiscal adjustment in aggregates than that originally suggested the domestic economy, the likely outturn by the provisional data. for growth in the Irish economy this year is subject to more uncertainty than usual. The prospect for a broad-based recovery There seems to be no reason, however, continues to depend significantly on external at this point, to significantly alter the Bank’s conditions. There have been contrasting previous projections for the main economic developments in the Irish economy’s external aggregates. As a result, GDP is still expected to environment over recent months. The recovery grow by about 0.8 per cent this year although in global economic activity is continuing at a GNP may decline slightly, perhaps by about reasonably strong, if somewhat uneven, pace. 0.3 per cent. This is likely to be followed by There have been signs of some slowdown in somewhat stronger growth in 2012 when an the US recovery, growth in the euro area has expansion in GDP of about 2.1 per cent and also eased, although this was partly in line in GNP of about 1 per cent is anticipated. with expectations, and the Japanese economy The broad narrative behind these figures has been affected by the recent earthquake remains unchanged. Exports continue to and tsunami. These factors have led to some grow while domestic demand remains moderation in the growth in the advanced weak, although the contraction in the latter economies but this is expected to be is gradually easing. Reflecting the modest temporary. The developing economies, on rate of output growth and the fact that it is the other hand, continue to grow very strongly. driven by sectors that are not labour intensive, As a result, any recent revisions to projections employment has yet to stabilise. It will be the of global output growth and world trade end of this year or, more likely, next year before volumes by international agencies have any employment growth starts to emerge. been modest. At the same time, tensions Unemployment may already have peaked but have increased in euro area financial markets, this largely reflects a pick-up in net outward reflecting not only the high levels of indebtedness migration, combined with lower participation. of some peripheral economies, including Ireland, Inflationary pressures remain subdued but but even more so, concerns about how these inflation has turned positive, as external price difficulties will be resolved by euro area increases feed through to the domestic prices. governments and the likely consequences The external current account has also swung of different scenarios in this regard. Other into a modest surplus, slightly earlier than risks still remain, including those related projected. to overheating in developing economies, 8 Comment Quarterly Bulletin 03 / July 11 Significant progress has been made on the time for the taxpayer. EBS has also been main challenges facing the economy. Fiscal merged with AIB to form one of the two ‘pillar developments up to the middle of the year banks’ of the system going forward along with have been broadly in line with expectations, as Bank of Ireland. the impact of changes made in the last Budget begin to have their full effect. The Government On the competitiveness front, further gains has also confirmed its commitment to making have been made, reflecting the fact that wage the necessary adjustments in Budget 2012 levels are set to remain broadly unchanged to keep the overall fiscal correction on track.
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