EAT Airport Master Plan
Planning Advisory Committee (PAC) Meeting #2 November 10, 2016 Meeting Agenda
1. Master Plan Status / Events 2. Working Paper #1 Finalization 3. Initial Forecast Overview (Preliminary Working Paper #2) 4. Next Steps 1. Master Plan Overview
Plan Progress: 2 4 2
Airport Layout Alternatives •What do we Forecasts * •Can we meet •How do we Plan * have, what expected pay for these condition, demand? •What do we changes? •What will these deficiencies? •What demand need to changes look change to like? do we expect? Capital Facility meet demand? Inventory Improvement Requirements Plan (CIP)
1 3 1 5
Stakeholder Coordination & Public Outreach * FAA Approval Required PAC Public 2. Working Paper #1 Update
Introduction and Inventory Chapters (4 PAC Member Comments)
Introduction Chapter Updates: – Includes PAC Strengths, Weakness, Opportunity, Threats (SWOT) Inventory Chapter Updates: PAC Responses Completed, Website Posted, FAA Review Submittal – Incorporates EAT Airport Survey Input (37 Responses) – Terminal Building Architectural Site Visit Notes – Airport Financial Overview – Airport Utility Information – Environmental Overview – Summary Findings Updated 2. Working Paper #1 Finalization
Are there any questions on Working Paper #1 – Introduction and Inventory/Environmental Overview? 3. Forecasts
Background - Aviation Forecasts Defined:
Aviation demand forecasts are time-based projections prepared for a 20-year planning horizon. The Master Plan forecasts provide an expectation of planning activity levels used to guide the analysis of future airport facility needs, alternatives, and development strategies.
The EAT Forecasts Should ‘Convey A Story’ 3. Forecasts
PAC Forecast Review Responsibility:
Identify any additional EAT forecast influencers. Determine the reasonableness of the ‘low’, ‘medium’, and ‘high’ forecast scenarios parameters and descriptions. Provide concurrence and identify a preference for the ‘low’, ‘medium’, and ‘high’ forecast scenarios methods. Identify other forecast information or background the PAC could provide the Consultant Team, in preparing the full Forecast Narrative Chapter. 3. Forecasts
Forecast Approach – Influencers, Scenarios, Methods:
Forecast Influencers – Factors Increasing or Decreasing Demand: EAT Airport Factors Community and Regional Socioeconomic Factors Aviation Industry Trends Forecast Scenarios - Characterizes a Pattern of Change: ‘Baseline’ – FAA Terminal Area Forecast (Gold) ‘High’ (Green) ‘Medium’ (Blue) ‘Low’ (Purple) Forecast Methods 3. Forecasts
EAT Upward (+) Influencers:
Leading Factors: + Large geographic EAT commercial service passenger catchment area + Regional socioeconomic expansion trends: Economy growing ±2 percent annually Population growth; attributed to the business and recreation base Wenatchee Valley commerce and specialized industry/services + Positive FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) forecast projections for EAT and region + Runway 12-30 extension + Other? 3. Forecasts
EAT Upward (+) Influencers:
Trailing Factors: + Type and diversity of on-Airport general aviation service providers + Sustained air carrier passenger growth + Installation of Runway 12-30 HIRL to improve instrument approach reliability + Local business reliance of EAT; including turbine/jet aircraft + Aviation spill-over from Seattle area airport(s) + On-Airport property availability for aeronautical and non-aeronautical use + Other? 3. Forecasts
EAT Downward (-) Influencers:
Leading and Trailing Factors: - Recent declines of EAT aircraft operations, utilization, and based aircraft - Airline passenger leakage (80%) and weather related cancellations - Industry-wide stagnation of the smaller general aviation piston fleet - Loss of corporate flight department (Executive Flight) at EAT - Proximity of surrounding public-use general aviation airports - Availability of facilities to accommodate larger aircraft - No major change or infusion of EAT offering pilot and aircraft services; flight training - Other? 3. Forecasts
Forecast Approach - Scenarios:
Each forecast component identifies Forecast Process the following forecast scenarios: Candidate Forecasts (Forecast Range)
Scenario Forecasts (High, Medium, Low) Activity Preferred Forecast Year Forecasting Fiedler’s Forecasts Rules:
Rule 1: It is very difficult to forecast, especially about the future. Rule 2: He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. Rule 3: The moment you forecast, you know you’re going to be wrong – you just don’t know when and in which direction. Rule 4: If you’re ever right, never let them forget it!
- Edgar R. Fiedler, Economist 3. Forecasts
EAT Forecast Components/Methods: Airline Passengers (Enplanements) Aircraft Operations, Service Frequency Air Cargo Freight Volumes Annual Aircraft Operations Commercial, General Aviation, Commercial Aircraft Type/FAA Category FAA Must Formally Approve the Aircraft Operational Peaking EAT Master Plan Forecasts – Critical/Most Demanding Aircraft Scenarios 10% to 15% Based Aircraft 3. Forecasts
Socioeconomic – EAT Airport Catchment Area:
Airport (Catchment EAT Drive EAT Total True Passengers Area Airport Use) Distance (Mi) Pax (2013) % Market Quick Facts: Wenatchee (EAT) - 101,900 19% Seattle (SEA) 162 321,978 59% Spokane (GEG) 166 70,469 13% Catchment Population: Tri-Cities (PSC) 133 29,714 6% Portland (PDX) 291 17,996 3% MSA = 115,600 Total/Average 188 542,057 100% Source: Distance from Google Maps, Passengers and fares from 2014 EAT PDA Study Primary = 145,000 Primary+Winter (+32,000) = 177,000
EAT True Passengers (2013): 542,000 (± 271,000 Enplaned)
EAT Enplanements (2015): 121,200 (62,000 Enplaned)
EAT Passenger Leakage (To Surrounding Airports): ± 80% 3. Forecasts
Airline Enplanement Forecasts (Historical and FAA TAF):
Historical and Forecast Enplanements (1990 - 2035) Quick Facts:
120,000 Historical Enplanement CAGR%: Historical (5-Year) = 5.4% 100,000 Historical (10-Year) = 4.6% Historical (15-Year) = 2.3% 80,000 FAA TAF CAGR%:
60,000 2015 to 2020 (5-Year) = 2.8% 2015 to 2020 (10-Year) = 2.6% 2015 to 2035 (20-Year) = 2.6% 40,000 ANNUAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS PASSENGER ANNUAL 20,000
HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 0 YEAR 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Historical Activity FAA FAA TAF Linear (Historical Activity) TAF Forecast 3. Forecasts
Enplanement Forecast (Airline Service Event Scenarios): Event Short-Term Mid-Term Long-Term Ultimate EAT Airline Event Scenario # (1-5 Years) (6-10 Years) (11-20 Years) (20+ Years) EAT AIRPORT INFLUENCES: 1 EAT runway project (length, HIRL lights) improves w inter-time reliability X """ 2 EAT air service grant results in larger 'True Passe nger' market share X """ 3 Community demand captures larger 'True Passenger' m arket share X "" OTHER AIRPORT INFLUENCES: 4 Significant Airline service changes at YMK, GEG, PS C, other? X " 5 Significant Airline market service changes - at SEA X "" 6 Significant Airline market service changes - at Wes t Coast Hub X "" ALASKA AIRLINES INFLUENCES: 7 Alaska Airlines improves EAT flight schedule/times - to SEA X """ 8 Alaska Airlines adds additional EAT flight frequenc y - to SEA X " COND COND 9 Alaska Airlines changes aircraft equipment at EAT ( Turboprop to Jet) X " 10 Alaska Airlines adds new airport destination servin g EAT - to West Coast Hub X 11 Alaska Airlines ceases service at EAT
Legend X Event Occurrence " Continuing Event Occurrence COND Event Conditional on other Event Occurrence(s) 3. Forecasts
Enplanement Forecast (Airline Service Event Scenarios):
Event Short-Term Mid-Term Long-Term Ultimate EAT Airline Event Scenario # (1-5 Years) (6-10 Years) (11-20 Years) (20+ Years) NEW AIRLINE INFLUENCES: 12 Second Regional Carrier initiates EAT service - to SEA (Turboprop) X 13 Second Regional Carrier initiates EAT service - to West Cost (Turboprop) X """ 14 Second Major Airline initiates EAT service - to SEA (Turboprop) 15 Second Major Airline initiates EAT service - to West Cost (Turboprop) COND " 16 Second Major Airline initiates EAT service - to SEA (Jet) 17 Second Major Airline initiates EAT service - to West Coast (Jet) X 18 Low Cost Airline with Seasonal Service - to Southwest US Destination X "" 19 Low Cost Airline with Seasonal Service - to Eastward US Destination X 20 Regional Airline replaces Alaska Airlines service 21 Major Airline replaces Alaska Airlines service
Airline Category / Examples: Major Airline: Alaska, Delta, United, American, Southwest Regional Airline/Affiliation: Horizon, Delta Connection, United Express, American Eagle, Pen Air Low Cost/Charter Airline: Allegiant, Frontier 3. Forecasts
Candidate Enplanement Forecast:
Quick Facts:
Forecast Methods Enplanement Forecast Recap: Indicate the Methods Assessed = 26 Potential Range Candidate = 10 (Graphed) for ‘Demand’ Candidate Range = 45,000
2035 Enplanements (CAGR%) Total Composite Average: Assessed = 95,600 (2.2%) Candidate = 90,600 (1.9%) 3. Forecasts
Scenario Enplanement Forecasts:
Enplanement Forecasts (2000 - 2035) Quick Facts: 130,000
120,000 Scenario Method: Forecast Baseline = FAA TAF 110,000 Scenarios Show Low = Enplaned Per Passenger the Potential 100,000 Medium = Air Service-Medium for Airline(s) High = 5-Year Trend 90,000 ‘Supplying’ Service 80,000 2035 Enplanements (CAGR%): Low = 74,000 (0.9%) 70,000 Medium = 90,200 (1.9%) 60,000 High = 118,300 (3.3%) FORECAST SCENARIOS: FAA TAF = 102,600 (2.6%) 50,000 HIGH = 5-YEAR RATE MEDIUM = AIR SERVICE-M ANNUAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS PASSENGER ANNUAL LOW = ENPLANED PER POPULATION RATIO 40,000 HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 30,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 EAT Historical FAA TAF Forecast Forecast Forecast Linear (EAT Historical ) (High) (Medium) (Low) 3. Forecasts
Air Cargo Forecasts (Historical Trends):
Historical Cargo Pounds (2011-2015) Quick Facts: 800,000 TOTAL CARGO CARGO (IN) CARGO (OUT) Cargo Totals (2013-2014): 700,000 Total = 1.35 Million Pounds
600,000 EAT Cargo In = 65% EAT Cargo Out = 35% 500,000 Cargo Carriers / Share: 400,000 Fed Ex = 55% EX
AXIS TITLE AXIS UPS (AmeriFlight) = 47% FED
300,000 UPS
EX Alaska Airlines = 3% UPS FED 200,000 EX
100,000 FED UPS ALASKA ALASKA ALASKA 0 2012-2015 (Total) 2012-2015 (In) 2012-2015 (Out) Alaska UPS (AmeriFlight) FedEx 3. Forecasts Air Cargo Forecasts:
Forecast Cargo Pounds (2016-2035) Quick Facts:
1,600,000 Historical Cargo Volumes (CAGR%): Historical (4-Year) = - 1.6% 1,400,000 Cargo Volumes (Millions Pounds): 1,200,000 2015 Cargo Pounds = 1.36 Pounds
1,000,000 TOTAL IN 2035 Cargo Pounds = 1.52 Pounds
800,000 Future Cargo CAGR%:
AIR CARGO POUNDS AIR CARGO 2015 to 2020 (5-Year) = 0.5% 600,000 TOTAL OUT 2015 to 2020 (10-Year) = 0.47% 400,000 2015 to 2035 (20-Year) = 0.46%
200,000 FORECAST PERIOD HISTORICAL 0
Grand Total Total In Total Out 3. Forecasts
Aircraft Operational Forecast (FAA TAF By User/Traffic Type):
FAA TAF Operations - By Type (2000-2035) Operation Classification 2015 (#) 2015 (%) 60,000 TOTAL 40,749 100.0% Operation Type 40,749 100.0% Itinerant Operation 15,628 38.4% 50,000 Scheduled Air Carrier 2,030 5.0% Other Commercial/Cargo 3,840 9.4% General Aviation/USFS 9,658 23.7% 40,000 Military 100 0.2% Local Operations 25,121 61.6% General Aviation/USFS 25,121 61.6% 30,000 Military 0 0.0% Fleet Mix - Aircraft Type 40,749 100.0% 20,000 Single Piston 26,079 64.0% Twin Piston 3,260 8.0% Turboprop 5,949 14.6% ANNUAL AIRPORT AIRPORT OPERATIONS ANNUAL 10,000 FAA TAF - COMMERCIAL Small Business Jet 407 1.0% (AIRLINE + AIR CARGO) Medium/LargeBusiness Jet 163 0.4% Transport Jet 0 0.0% HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD MILITARY 0 Helicopter 4,890 12.0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Total Total Total Total Total Total AC GA MIL Local Itinerant Ops 3. Forecasts
Aircraft Operational Forecast:
OPERATIONS PER BASED AIRCRAFT (OPBA) - (2000-2035) Quick Facts: 550 Operations Per Based Aircraft Apparent 500 (OPBA) are growing relative to Increase in FAA TAF; indicating higher Utilization Not aircraft utilization. Provides Recognized by 450 optimism that aircraft operational FAA TAF trends have bottomed-out. 400
350 FAA TAF (OPBA)
300 OPBA -OPBA OPERATIONS ANNUAL TOTAL
HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 250 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 EAT OPBA FAA OPBA Linear (EAT OPBA) 3. Forecasts
Scenario Operational Forecast:
Historical and Forecast Operations (2000-2035) Quick Facts: 60,000 Scenario Method: 55,000 Baseline = FAA TAF Low = Trend-3 (# An Change) Medium = Trend-2 (% An Change) 50,000 HIGH High = Trend-1 (% Growth)
45,000 2035 Operations (CAGR%): MEDIUM Low = 38,200 (-0.2%) 40,000 Medium = 43,400 (0.3%) LOW High = 49,600 (0.9%) FAA TAF = 56,600 (1.4%) 35,000 ANNUAL AIRPORT AIRPORT OPERATIONS ANNUAL HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD
30,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Historical FAA Trend-1 Trend-2 Trend-3 TAF (High) (Medium) (Low) 3. Forecasts
Critical Aircraft Type:
The future critical aircraft is expected to transition from a turboprop (Q400) airliner to a
Transition regional jet (Embraer 175) airliner. 3. Forecasts
Scenario Based Aircraft Forecast:
Historical and Forecast Based Aircraft (1990-2035) Quick Facts: 170
160 Historical
150 (1990 to 2015): 1990 to 2015 = +0.5 APY 140 2000 to 2015 = -1.5 APY 130 2010 to 2015 = -3.2 APY 120
110 FAA TAF is No APY: Average Per Year Longer Indexed 100 to the Actual 96 FAA TAF Forecast BASED AIRCRAFT AIRCRAFT BASED 90 Current Based (2016 to 2035): 80 Aircraft Level 120 to 159 Aircraft = +39 70 CAGR: 1.4% 60 APY = +2.0 Aircraft Per Year HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 50 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Actual FAA TAF Linear (Actual Based Based) 3. Forecasts
Scenario Based Aircraft Forecast:
EAT AIRCRAFT - BY TYPE (2015/2016) Quick Facts: 100 PISTON TURBOPROP JET ROTOR OTHER 90 EAT Based Aircraft: 107 82 FAA Category Based Aircraft: 96 80
70 Single Piston = 82 (77%) Twin Piston = 5 (5%) 60 Turboprop = 2 (2%)
50 Business Jet = 4 (4%) Rotorcraft = 3 (3%)
AIRCRAFT 40
30 Other (Glider/Ultralight) = 11 * * Not Counted or Forecast 20 11 as FAA Allowable Based Aircraft 10 5 1 1 4 3 0 Single Twin Single Twin Business Rotorcraft Other Engine Piston Turboprop Turboprop Jet 3. Forecasts
Scenario Based Aircraft Forecast:
FORECAST BASED AIRCRAFT (2016-2035) Quick Facts: 170
160 Scenario Method:
150 Baseline = FAA TAF Baseline = FAA TAF (Indexed) 140 Low = Trend-1 (# Annual Change) 130 Medium = Trend-2 (% Change)
120 HIGH High = External-1 (Growth)
110 2035 Forecast (CAGR%): 100 Low = 92 (-0.3%) BASED AIRCRAFT AIRCRAFT BASED 90 Medium = 108 (+0.6%) 80 High = 129 (+1.5%) FAA TAF = 159 (+1.4%) 70 HISTORICAL FORECAST PERIOD PERIOD FAA TAF (Indexed) = 133 (+1.7%) 60 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Historical FAA TAF FAA TAF Low Medium High (Indexed) 4. Next Steps
The next PAC Meeting #3 is tentatively planned for February-March, depending upon FAA review and approval of the Aviation Forecast Working Paper #2 Chapter. 4. Next Steps EAT Factsheet #1:
Factsheet provided at key study periods to focus public attention to EAT master plan findings and resources. 4. Next Steps Civic Outreach Opportunities:
Winterfest Festival (Chelan) PAC input on January 13 – 22, 2017 which events to attend, and Washington State Apple Blossom Festival (Wenatchee) suggestions April 27 – May 5, 2017 about engaging the public. Pybus Farmers Market (Wenatchee) 8:30am – 2:30pm Saturday, Year-round 4. Next Steps – PAC Actions PAC Actions:
1. Review and provide initial comment to Airport Team on the PAC Meeting #2 Forecast Presentation at November 10 meeting. 2. Review and accept PAC Meeting #2 Meeting Minutes by November 21. 3. Expect Working Paper #2 (Forecast Chapter) for review by December 5. Review and provide WP#2 comment to Airport Team via email ([email protected]) by December 19. 4. In meantime … notify Airport Team of information that might impact the Airport Master Plan. Questions and Comments
Thank you! Template