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Airline Enplanement Forecasts (Historical and FAA TAF)

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Airline Enplanement Forecasts (Historical and FAA TAF) EAT Airport Master Plan Planning Advisory Committee (PAC) Meeting #2 November 10, 2016 Meeting Agenda 1. Master Plan Status / Events 2. Working Paper #1 Finalization 3. Initial Forecast Overview (Preliminary Working Paper #2) 4. Next Steps 1. Master Plan Overview Plan Progress: 2 4 2 Airport Layout Alternatives •What do we Forecasts * •Can we meet •How do we Plan * have, what expected pay for these condition, demand? •What do we changes? •What will these deficiencies? •What demand need to changes look change to like? do we expect? Capital Facility meet demand? Inventory Improvement Requirements Plan (CIP) 1 3 1 5 Stakeholder Coordination & Public Outreach * FAA Approval Required PAC Public 2. Working Paper #1 Update Introduction and Inventory Chapters (4 PAC Member Comments) Introduction Chapter Updates: – Includes PAC Strengths, Weakness, Opportunity, Threats (SWOT) Inventory Chapter Updates: PAC Responses Completed, Website Posted, FAA Review Submittal – Incorporates EAT Airport Survey Input (37 Responses) – Terminal Building Architectural Site Visit Notes – Airport Financial Overview – Airport Utility Information – Environmental Overview – Summary Findings Updated 2. Working Paper #1 Finalization Are there any questions on Working Paper #1 – Introduction and Inventory/Environmental Overview? 3. Forecasts Background - Aviation Forecasts Defined: Aviation demand forecasts are time-based projections prepared for a 20-year planning horizon. The Master Plan forecasts provide an expectation of planning activity levels used to guide the analysis of future airport facility needs, alternatives, and development strategies. The EAT Forecasts Should ‘Convey A Story’ 3. Forecasts PAC Forecast Review Responsibility: Identify any additional EAT forecast influencers. Determine the reasonableness of the ‘low’, ‘medium’, and ‘high’ forecast scenarios parameters and descriptions. Provide concurrence and identify a preference for the ‘low’, ‘medium’, and ‘high’ forecast scenarios methods. Identify other forecast information or background the PAC could provide the Consultant Team, in preparing the full Forecast Narrative Chapter. 3. Forecasts Forecast Approach – Influencers, Scenarios, Methods: Forecast Influencers – Factors Increasing or Decreasing Demand: EAT Airport Factors Community and Regional Socioeconomic Factors Aviation Industry Trends Forecast Scenarios - Characterizes a Pattern of Change: ‘Baseline’ – FAA Terminal Area Forecast (Gold) ‘High’ (Green) ‘Medium’ (Blue) ‘Low’ (Purple) Forecast Methods 3. Forecasts EAT Upward (+) Influencers: Leading Factors: + Large geographic EAT commercial service passenger catchment area + Regional socioeconomic expansion trends: Economy growing ±2 percent annually Population growth; attributed to the business and recreation base Wenatchee Valley commerce and specialized industry/services + Positive FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) forecast projections for EAT and region + Runway 12-30 extension + Other? 3. Forecasts EAT Upward (+) Influencers: Trailing Factors: + Type and diversity of on-Airport general aviation service providers + Sustained air carrier passenger growth + Installation of Runway 12-30 HIRL to improve instrument approach reliability + Local business reliance of EAT; including turbine/jet aircraft + Aviation spill-over from Seattle area airport(s) + On-Airport property availability for aeronautical and non-aeronautical use + Other? 3. Forecasts EAT Downward (-) Influencers: Leading and Trailing Factors: - Recent declines of EAT aircraft operations, utilization, and based aircraft - Airline passenger leakage (80%) and weather related cancellations - Industry-wide stagnation of the smaller general aviation piston fleet - Loss of corporate flight department (Executive Flight) at EAT - Proximity of surrounding public-use general aviation airports - Availability of facilities to accommodate larger aircraft - No major change or infusion of EAT offering pilot and aircraft services; flight training - Other? 3. Forecasts Forecast Approach - Scenarios: Each forecast component identifies Forecast Process the following forecast scenarios: Candidate Forecasts (Forecast Range) Scenario Forecasts (High, Medium, Low) Activity Preferred Forecast Year Forecasting Fiedler’s Forecasts Rules: Rule 1: It is very difficult to forecast, especially about the future. Rule 2: He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. Rule 3: The moment you forecast, you know you’re going to be wrong – you just don’t know when and in which direction. Rule 4: If you’re ever right, never let them forget it! - Edgar R. Fiedler, Economist 3. Forecasts EAT Forecast Components/Methods: Airline Passengers (Enplanements) Aircraft Operations, Service Frequency Air Cargo Freight Volumes Annual Aircraft Operations Commercial, General Aviation, Commercial Aircraft Type/FAA Category FAA Must Formally Approve the Aircraft Operational Peaking EAT Master Plan Forecasts – Critical/Most Demanding Aircraft Scenarios 10% to 15% Based Aircraft 3. Forecasts Socioeconomic – EAT Airport Catchment Area: Airport (Catchment EAT Drive EAT Total True Passengers Area Airport Use) Distance (Mi) Pax (2013) % Market Quick Facts: Wenatchee (EAT) - 101,900 19% Seattle (SEA) 162 321,978 59% Spokane (GEG) 166 70,469 13% Catchment Population: Tri-Cities (PSC) 133 29,714 6% Portland (PDX) 291 17,996 3% MSA = 115,600 Total/Average 188 542,057 100% Source: Distance from Google Maps, Passengers and fares from 2014 EAT PDA Study Primary = 145,000 Primary+Winter (+32,000) = 177,000 EAT True Passengers (2013): 542,000 (± 271,000 Enplaned) EAT Enplanements (2015): 121,200 (62,000 Enplaned) EAT Passenger Leakage (To Surrounding Airports): ± 80% 3. Forecasts Airline Enplanement Forecasts (Historical and FAA TAF): Historical and Forecast Enplanements (1990 - 2035) Quick Facts: 120,000 Historical Enplanement CAGR%: Historical (5-Year) = 5.4% 100,000 Historical (10-Year) = 4.6% Historical (15-Year) = 2.3% 80,000 FAA TAF CAGR%: 60,000 2015 to 2020 (5-Year) = 2.8% 2015 to 2020 (10-Year) = 2.6% 2015 to 2035 (20-Year) = 2.6% 40,000 ANNUAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS PASSENGER ANNUAL 20,000 HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST PERIOD 0 YEAR 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Historical Activity FAA FAA TAF Linear (Historical Activity) TAF Forecast 3. Forecasts Enplanement Forecast (Airline Service Event Scenarios): Event Short-Term Mid-Term Long-Term Ultimate EAT Airline Event Scenario # (1-5 Years) (6-10 Years) (11-20 Years) (20+ Years) EAT AIRPORT INFLUENCES: 1 EAT runway project (length, HIRL lights) improves winter-time reliability X """ 2 EAT air service grant results in larger 'True Passenger' market share X """ 3 Community demand captures larger 'True Passenger' market share X "" OTHER AIRPORT INFLUENCES: 4 Significant Airline service changes at YMK, GEG, PSC, other? X " 5 Significant Airline market service changes - at SEA X "" 6 Significant Airline market service changes - at West Coast Hub X "" ALASKA AIRLINES INFLUENCES: 7 Alaska Airlines improves EAT flight schedule/times - to SEA X """ 8 Alaska Airlines adds additional EAT flight frequency - to SEA X " COND COND 9 Alaska Airlines changes aircraft equipment at EAT (Turboprop to Jet) X " 10 Alaska Airlines adds new airport destination serving EAT - to West Coast Hub X 11 Alaska Airlines ceases service at EAT Legend X Event Occurrence " Continuing Event Occurrence COND Event Conditional on other Event Occurrence(s) 3. Forecasts Enplanement Forecast (Airline Service Event Scenarios): Event Short-Term Mid-Term Long-Term Ultimate EAT Airline Event Scenario # (1-5 Years) (6-10 Years) (11-20 Years) (20+ Years) NEW AIRLINE INFLUENCES: 12 Second Regional Carrier initiates EAT service - to SEA (Turboprop) X 13 Second Regional Carrier initiates EAT service - to West Cost (Turboprop) X """ 14 Second Major Airline initiates EAT service - to SEA (Turboprop) 15 Second Major Airline initiates EAT service - to West Cost (Turboprop) COND " 16 Second Major Airline initiates EAT service - to SEA (Jet) 17 Second Major Airline initiates EAT service - to West Coast (Jet) X 18 Low Cost Airline with Seasonal Service - to Southwest US Destination X "" 19 Low Cost Airline with Seasonal Service - to Eastward US Destination X 20 Regional Airline replaces Alaska Airlines service 21 Major Airline replaces Alaska Airlines service Airline Category / Examples: Major Airline: Alaska, Delta, United, American, Southwest Regional Airline/Affiliation: Horizon, Delta Connection, United Express, American Eagle, Pen Air Low Cost/Charter Airline: Allegiant, Frontier 3. Forecasts Candidate Enplanement Forecast: Quick Facts: Forecast Methods Enplanement Forecast Recap: Indicate the Methods Assessed = 26 Potential Range Candidate = 10 (Graphed) for ‘Demand’ Candidate Range = 45,000 2035 Enplanements (CAGR%) Total Composite Average: Assessed = 95,600 (2.2%) Candidate = 90,600 (1.9%) 3. Forecasts Scenario Enplanement Forecasts: Enplanement Forecasts (2000 - 2035) Quick Facts: 130,000 120,000 Scenario Method: Forecast Baseline = FAA TAF 110,000 Scenarios Show Low = Enplaned Per Passenger the Potential 100,000 Medium = Air Service-Medium for Airline(s) High = 5-Year Trend 90,000 ‘Supplying’ Service 80,000 2035 Enplanements (CAGR%): Low = 74,000 (0.9%) 70,000 Medium = 90,200 (1.9%) 60,000 High = 118,300 (3.3%) FORECAST SCENARIOS: FAA TAF = 102,600 (2.6%) 50,000 HIGH = 5-YEAR RATE MEDIUM = AIR SERVICE-M ANNUAL PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS PASSENGER ANNUAL LOW = ENPLANED PER POPULATION RATIO 40,000 HISTORICAL PERIOD FORECAST
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