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Spoiler of Reformer? the Uniting for Consensus Group and UN Security Council Reform

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Spoiler of Reformer? the Uniting for Consensus Group and UN Security Council Reform Title Spoiler of Reformer? The Uniting for Consensus group and UN Security Council reform Author(s) Magalhaes Barreto Silva, Marina Citation Issue Date Text Version ETD URL https://doi.org/10.18910/34548 DOI 10.18910/34548 rights Note Osaka University Knowledge Archive : OUKA https://ir.library.osaka-u.ac.jp/ Osaka University OSAKA UNIVERSITY Spoiler or Reformer? The Uniting for Consensus group and UN Security Council reform MARINA MAGALHÃES BARRETO LEITE SILVA OSAKA, JAPAN JANUARY, 2014 OSAKA UNIVERSITY SPOILER OR REFORMER? THE UNITING FOR CONSENSUS GROUP AND UN S ECURITY COUNCIL REFORM A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE OSAKA SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC POLICY BY MARINA MAGALHÃES BARRETO LEITE SILVA OSAKA, JAPAN JANUARY, 2014 To all the loves of my life. CONTENTS Abstract ................................................................................................................... vii Acknowledgments ................................................................................................... viii List of Charts .......................................................................................................... ix Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1 The United Nations and the representation crisis .............................. 3 The UN Security Council reform debates .......................................... 5 A case of conflicting ideas .................................................................. 8 Literature ............................................................................................ 9 How to approach the UfC case? ......................................................... 12 Chapter I: Background ............................................................................................ 17 A learned lesson about how not to manage an organization ............. 19 A Council of gentlemen and its contestation ...................................... 23 A cold Council for a Cold War .......................................................... 26 From ice-cold to scalding hot ............................................................ 30 Claims of representation and its actors ............................................. 34 A tumultuous decade ........................................................................ 41 New century old topics ....................................................................... 44 Chapter II: Proposals and Positions ........................................................................ 49 Unanimously accepted ....................................................................... 51 Disagreements .................................................................................... 58 African Union ..................................................................................... 63 Group of Four .................................................................................... 66 Uniting for Consensus ........................................................................ 72 The Accusation ................................................................................... 77 Chapter III: Legitimacy .......................................................................................... 95 Chronology ......................................................................................... 98 Democracy ......................................................................................... 107 Voting power simulations ................................................................... 113 Perspectives of legitimacy .................................................................. 118 Chapter IV: Support ................................................................................................ 125 Support measuring system .................................................................. 128 Expansion of seats .............................................................................. 133 Direct support to specific countries ................................................... 137 New categories ................................................................................... 140 Veto .................................................................................................... 143 Proposals ............................................................................................ 146 Structural aspects of the debates ........................................................ 149 The variable of permanence …........................................................... 153 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 159 The momentum never came ................................................................ 162 A legitimate claim .............................................................................. 164 Annexes ................................................................................................................... 171 Annex I: Timelines of the UNSC Reform Proposals (1946-2012) ...... 173 Annex II: Tables on the Use of the Concept of Democracy by the Group of Four and the Uniting for Consensus Applied to the Fisher Exact Test ................................... 178 Annex III: List of Categories Considered for Support Measuring ..... 179 Annex IV: Extra Graphs Elaborated Through the System of Support Measuring ............................................................................ 181 Bibliography ............................................................................................................ 185 . ABSTRACT During the years of official debates on the reform of the UN Security Council, amidst the clashes of different positions on how to transform the organ, one group was frequently on the receiving end of accusations that it was attempting to hamper the debates, delay agreement, and prevent its members’ regional rivals from acquiring permanent positions inside the organ – the Uniting for Consensus (UfC) group. Using chronological and structural analysis, together with a support measuring system, this research aimed to analyze if the UfC group has real intentions of reforming the Security Council or if they are just a coalition of “angry neighbors”, trying to take the debates to an eternal loop of ineffectiveness. Using the results collected from several angles of analysis, this study concludes that it is possible to declare this group’s claims reasonable and its intentions of reforming the Security Council real. The structure of the formal proposal was proven a model that will actually establish a transformation of the current Council into an organ that is more democratic and with the fairest representation when compared to the other proposals on the table. Furthermore, the numbers that serve as indicators of support for a particular proposal proved that at no time during the debates was an agreement close to being achieved. This demonstrates that there was never a real momentum for the reform of the Council, or an identifiable attempt to block what could be perceived as a momentum towards an agreement. vii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all I would like to express my deepest appreciation for all the support, the ideas and the motivation given by my supervisor, Prof. Dr. Virgil Hawkins. This dissertation would not be possible without his kindness of initially accepting me as a student in his research group. His guidance and help were the main encouragement for the conclusion of this work. I would also like to thank my second supervisor, Prof. Dr. Toshiya Hoshino, and the third member of my evaluation committee, Prof. Toshitaka Takeuchi, for the useful comments and observations. All of their ideas contributed to the improvement of this dissertation. In addition, I would like to thank for the availability of all the individuals that contributed to this work, including UN permanent representatives and scholars. Although many of them must remain anonymous, these diplomats and professors kindly granted me information and thought-provoking viewpoints through interviews and attributed a great value to the results of this thesis. Finally, but not less importantly, I would like to dedicate all my hard work and efforts to: my lovely parents – Júlio and Cláudia –; my brothers and sister – Júlio, João and Maria Isabel –; my love, Carlos; and my dear friends. They gave me all the support, from the other side of the world, in Brazil, or from some blocks away, in Japan. Their love made all the stress, exhaustion and “saudade” a little less heavy during this entire process. viii LIST OF CHARTS Chapter I: Background Chart 1.1: Use of the Veto (1946-2006) .............................................. 27 Chart 1.2: Number of resolutions and presidential statements over years (1946-2010) ............................................................ 32 Chapter II: Proposals and Positions Chart 2.1: UN Membership growth vs. Security Council representation .................................................................... 54 Chart 2.2: Distribution of seats by the Gentleman’s Agreement (1946) ................................................................................. 55 Chart 2.3: Distribution of seats by the Resolution 1991A (17 Dec 1963) .................................................................................. 56 Chart 2.4: Participation from 1993-2012 (more than 10 speeches)
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