Universal credit: good idea, badly done How to protect Brazil’s democracy The case against gender self-ID Drone deliveries take o OCTOBER 27TH–NOVEMBER 2ND 201 Aussie rules What Australia can teach the world MANIFESTO People are generally recognized as the most important source o=-mou]-mb-ঞomĽv1olr;ঞঞ;-7-m|-];ĺ+;||_;-u; =u;t;m|Ѵ|_;lov|lbvm7;uv|oo7-m7Ѵ;-v|Ѵ;;u-];7-vv;|ĺ ;orѴ;=oul|_;Ѵbmh0;|;;mv|u-|;]7;vb]m-m77;Ѵb;uĸ |_;|umb7;-vbm|ou;-Ѵb|ĸ|_;-u;|_;v|u-|;]bmloঞomĺ Success requires a deep understanding of the fundamental 1olrѴ;b|o=|_bv|ub1hb;v|;Ѵ;l;m|Ĺour;orѴ;ĺ Leader h p Over-Empha zed Collabora on Key Bu n Every h ng Cul ure never Bu l People Ac n he r Own elf n ere Ready to create sustainable change? Executive Master in Consulting and Coaching for Change Find out more www.consulting-coaching-change.com Contents The Economist October 27th 2018 5 The world this week Britain 8 A round-up of political 25 Universal credit and business news 26 Brexit and Moldova 27 Avoiding an Irish border Leaders 27 Trendy or stuffy churches? 11 Australia The wonder down under 28 Designing a new £50 note 28 Courts go digital 12 Immigration Caravan of guff 29 Sex-grooming gangs 12 Brazil’s elections 30 Bagehot: Brexiteers rage Containing Jair Bolsonaro against reality 14 Transgender rights Who decides? Europe 31 Italy’s budget row On the cover 16 Welfare Credit comes later 32 A state election in Hesse The stellar performance of the 32 Poland’s local elections Australian economy holds Letters encouraging lessons for the 34 Parisian derision rest of the world: leader, 18 On veganism, Turkey, the 34 Threats to Schengen gig economy, Hong Kong, page 11, and special report 35 Turkey’s Saturday Mothers after page 46 AIG, uptalk 36 Charlemagne Brussels v • Universal credit: good idea, Briefing Rome badly done Despite a disastrous 21 Transgender identity launch, Britain’s welfare reform The body of law United States could yet be a success, page 16. 37 Poverty in the Golden State The fixes needed to save a once- 22 How rights compete Gavin Newsom’s plans promising policy, page 25 A Brazilian in Canada 39 39 A farewell to arms control • How to protect Brazil’s Special report: Australia 40 Obamacare heads west democracy Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s probable next president, After page 46 41 A moderate in Maryland has authoritarian instincts that 41 Getting out the Amish vote must be contained, page 12. 42 Lexington Trump’s He is reviving Latin America’s not-bad foreign record unholy marriage between market economics and political The Americas authoritarianism, page 43 43 Bolsonaro and the • The case against gender perversion of liberalism self-identification Often cited 46 The Hondurans are as a matter of trans people’s civil coming! rights, it is more problematic than many advocates realise, page 14. Campaigners say that only individuals can know their gender. Others want the state to Middle East and Africa have a role, page 21 Schumpeter Like 47 The defiant Saudi prince politicians, chief • Drone deliveries take of executives now live in 48 Bats on the border From the Arctic to the equator, terror of public blunders, 48 Privatisation in Egypt delivering goods by drone no page 66 49 Mozambique’s economy longer seems as fanciful as once it did, page 78 49 Famine in the Sahel 50 Why Africans like Trump 1 Contents continues overleaf 6 Contents The Economist October 27th 2018 Asia Finance and economics 51 Afghanistan’s election 69 Asia and the trade war 52 India, Pakistan, cricket 70 China’s stockmarket and contracts 71 Crude oil’s strains 52 Malaysia’s tense new 71 The global wealth gap government 72 Energy efficiency 53 Millennials in Indonesia 72 Ethical investing 54 Banyan Japan warms to 75 Buttonwood The agony China of investors Free exchange Mergers China 76 and labour 55 Unhappy veterans 56 The politics of men in Science and technology make-up 78 Drone deliveries take off 58 Chaguan The tightening 79 Autonomous-car ethics grip on Hong Kong 80 Saving a rare giraffe 81 Psychiatric diagnosis International 59 Too many tourists 60 Excrement on Mount Books and arts Everest 82 How Newt Gingrich made Donald Trump 83 Italy’s Holocaust 84 Nietzsche’s philosophy Business 84 New gothic fiction 61 Amazon’s business 85 Akram Khan’s last solo dance 62 Bartleby Executive matchmaking Economic and financial indicators 63 Shipping emissions 88 Statistics on 42 economies 63 Pigs and tech in China 64 Which MBA? Graphic detail 65 Bulletproof vehicles 89 The Chinese century is well under way 65 Teaching AI 66 Schumpeter Outspoken Obituary bosses 90 Jamal Khashoggi, the man who spoke out Subscription service For our full range of subscription ofers, including digital only or print and digital combined, visit: Volume 429 Number 9115 Economist.com/offers Published since September 1843 to take part in “a severe contest between You can also subscribe by post, telephone or email: One-year print-only subscription (51 issues): Please intelligence, which presses forward, and an unworthy, timid ignorance Post: The Economist Subscription UK..........................................................................................£145 obstructing our progress.” Services, PO Box 471, Haywards Heath, RH16 3GY, UK Editorial offices in London and also: PEFC certified Amsterdam, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Telephone: 0845 120 0 83 or This copy of The Economist Chicago, Johannesburg, Madrid, Mexico City, 0207 576 8448 is printed on paper sourced Moscow, Mumbai, New Delhi, New York, Paris, from sustainably managed San Francisco, São Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Email: customerservices forests certified by PEFC Singapore, Tokyo, Washington DC @subscriptions.economist.com PEFC/16-33-582 www.pefc.org Registered as a newspaper. © 2018 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Printed by Wyndeham Peterborough Limited. This advertisement has been approved for issue by Pictet Asset Management Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The value of an investment can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Asset Management Wealth Management Asset Services Geneva Lausanne Zurich Basel Luxembourg London Amsterdam Brussels Paris Stuttgart Frankfurt Munich Madrid Barcelona Turin Milan Verona Rome Tel Aviv Dubai Nassau Montreal Hong Kong Singapore Taipei Osaka Tokyo group.pictet 8 The world this week Politics The Economist October 27th 2018 the Clintons and the Obamas, received 99.8% of the vote in ahead of a presidential election and to George Soros, a billion- the rubber-stamp parliament scheduled for February. aire philanthropist who backs (he was the only name on the progressive causes. ballot) and is the first person to Rebels in the Democratic hold both jobs since Ho Chi Republic of Congo killed at The Justice Department filed Minh in the1960s. least 15 people in an area affect- criminal charges against a ed by an outbreak of Ebola. The woman for her alleged role in a attack threatens to disrupt Russian conspiracy to “sow efforts to contain the virus. discord” in American elec- tions, including the mid- Paul Biya, who has ruled terms. The woman, based in St Cameroon since 1982, was Some 7,000 Central American Petersburg, is said to be the declared the winner of a presi- migrants travelling together accountant for a disinfor- dential election marred by towards America entered mation project backed by a violence and a low turnout in Mexico from Guatemala, pro-Putin Russian oligarch. It the country’s two English- despite an attempt by Mexican is claimed she disbursed mon- speaking regions. police to stop them. The ey for activists, advertisements “caravan” originated in the on social media and “promot- Honduran city of San Pedro ing news postings on social China’s president, Xi Jinping, Heading for a showdown Sula and grew as it progressed. networks.” opened the world’s longest The European Commission in President Donald Trump sug- sea bridge. Costing $20bn, the Brussels rejected Italy’s bud- gested, without evidence, that 55km (34-mile) Hong Kong- get. It calls for a 2.4% deficit the Democrats had a hand in The skin of its teeth Zhuhai-Macau Bridge spans this year, which, given the size organising it and that “crimi- Australia’s Liberal Party lost a the Pearl river estuary and is of Italy’s debt, is not consid- nals and unknown Middle by-election for a seat in Sydney part of a government plan to ered sustainable. The Italian Easterners” are part of the that had been held by Malcolm integrate the region’s cities government has been given group. America’s mid-term Turnbull, who was ousted as into one giant economic and three weeks to revise it, or face elections are on November 6th. prime minister by his party in transport hub. sanctions. In Rome, Matteo August. That means the go- Salvini, one of the leaders of Julian Assange, a co-founder verning coalition has lost its the populist coalition govern- of WikiLeaks, sued Ecuador, one-seat majority in Parlia- Who gave the order? ment, said he would not alter whose embassy in London has ment and will have to depend Muhammad bin Salman, the the budget.