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Mumbai- Residential Q1 2020

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Mumbai- Residential Q1 2020 M A R K E T B E AT MUMBAI Residential Q1 2020 Marginal increase in new launches in Q1 A total of 14,861 residential units were launched during Q1 2020, an increase of 2% q-o-q, though on a yearly basis, launches were slightly down by 4.7%. We saw some improvement in sales in H2 2019 and Q1 coincided with the festive season of Gudi Padwa, usually associated with better buyer sentiment. With a view to take advantage, developers remained bullish on new launch activity, pushing launches of new projects or new phases in DECREASE IN NEW LAUNCHES 4.7% ON Y-O-Y BASIS existing projects. With low ticket-sizes and affordably priced housing ruling the roost, the Extended Suburbs accounted for a 41% share of new launches followed by Thane and Western Suburbs with a 15% share each. Sunteck Realty, Lodha Group, Chandak Group & Reddy Builders, Piramal Realty, Runwal Group, Kalpataru Group and Godrej Properties – all prominent names, were active during the quarter, together accounting for about SHARE OF MID AND AFFORDABLE 55% of the new launches across various submarkets. 91% SEGMENT IN Q1 2020 LAUNCHES The uncertainty from the COVID-19 outbreak and the shutdown is likely to delay approvals and new project launches. Also, buying activity is likely to SHARE OF EXTENDED SUBURBS be impacted with the economic headwinds causing sentiments to become slightly bearish. We expect developers would focus on reducing unsold 41% IN LAUNCHES (Q1 2020) inventory and focus on projects that are already under construction over the next 3-6 months. Mid segment dominates new launches With a share of 55%, the mid segment continued to account for the maximum share in new launches and also saw a healthy 15.6% q-o-q rise in units launched in this segment in Q1. The affordable segment, contributed 36% of all new launches, though the absolute number of affordable units MARKET INDICATORS OVERALL Q1 2020 declined 11.4% q-o-q. Maximum launches in the affordable segment were contributed by the Extended Suburbs and Navi Mumbai submarkets, while Thane, Western Suburbs and Eastern Suburbs were the major contributors to mid segment launches during quarter. Y-O-Y 12-Months Change Forecast The COVID-19 outbreak, the subsequent lockdown and stalled construction activity has caused construction slippages and delays in project completions during the quarter. Given the impact on resource mobilization and sourcing of raw materials, besides an anticipated slowdown in demand for the next 2-3 quarters and liquidity constraints going forward, we expect further delays in project completions across all segments. As such, New Launches MahaRERA has recently extended completion deadlines by 3 months for all registered projects. Units Sold Capital and rental values remained unchanged The quoted, average capital values across all submarkets and price categories were unchanged during the quarter. Rental values were also largely range-bound during this period. We expect that capital values are likely to exhibit signs of stability over the next 2-3 quarters with the city’s residential Average Capital market already considered to be high-priced and some demand stagnancy also likely to exert pressure on developers. With reduced home loan rates, Values (INR/sf) homebuyers with a specific budget and no liquidity concerns may look at good bargains in the short term with higher discounts besides other benefits from the developers, as the latter will be quite focused on offloading unsold inventory to reduce their widening cash flow gaps. SIGNIFICANT PROJECT LAUNCHED IN Q1 2020 BUILDING LOCATION DEVELOPER UNITS LAUNCHED RATE**(INR/SF) Sunteck Maxx World Naigaon Sunteck Realty 2,222 7,900 – 10,500 Lodha Codename Smart Buy Dombivali East Lodha Group 1,264 9,300 – 10,750 Bay Garden Goregaon West Chandak Group & Reddy Builder 1,169 23,100 Runwal Garden – Phase II – North Avenue Dombivali East Runwal Group 896 9,500 Poddar Riviera - Phase 1 Kalyan West Poddar Housing 672 8,852 M A R K E T B E AT MUMBAI Residential Q1 2020 RENTAL VALUES AS OF Q1 2020* CAPITAL VALUES AS OF Q1 2020* AVERAGE AVERAGE QUOTED QoQ CHANGE YoY SHORT TERM QoQ CHANGE YoY SHORT TERM SUBMARKET QUOTED RENT SUBMARKET CAPITAL VALUES (%) (%) OUTLOOK (%) (%) OUTLOOK (INRMONTH) (INR/MONTH) High-end segment High-end segment South 60,000 – 700,000 0% 0% South 40,000 – 83,000 0% 0% South Central 60,000 – 550,000 0% 0% South Central 22,000 – 73,000 0% 0% Eastern Suburbs 25,000 – 400,000 0% 0% Eastern Suburbs 12,000 – 40,000 0% 0% Western Suburbs – Prime 50,000 – 800,000 0% 0% Western Suburbs – Prime 24,000 – 65,000 0% 0% Mid segment Mid segment Eastern Suburbs 18,000 – 70,000 0% 0% Eastern Suburbs 10,000 – 24,000 0% 0% Western Suburbs 20,000 – 80,000 0% 0% Western Suburbs 9,000 – 26,000 0% 0% Thane 14,000 – 28,000 0% 0% Thane 7,000 – 14,000 0% 0% Navi Mumbai 10,000 – 50,000 0% 0% Navi Mumbai 5,000 – 15,000 0% 0% SIGNIFICANT PROJECT COMPLETED IN Q1 2020 BUILDING LOCATION DEVELOPER NO. OF UNITS UNIT SIZE (SF) Lodha Trumph Tower Lower Parel Lodha Group 390 2,200 – 2,400 Rohan Sharma Director, Research Services Indiabulls Blu Worli Indiabulls Real Estate 360 1,539 – 3,278 +91 124 4695555 /[email protected] Skylark Enclave – Flamingo & Pelican Thane Hiranandani Developers 250 1,208 – 1,620 Kapil Kanala SIGNIFICANT PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION – TO BE COMPLETED IN NEXT 12 MONTHS Associate Director, Research Services BUILDING LOCATION DEVELOPER UNITS LAUNCHED EXPECTED COMPLETION +91 40 40405555 /[email protected] Lodha Palava City – Central Park Dombivali Lodha Group 2,500 Q3 2020 cushmanwakefield.com Omkar Alta Monte Tower B Malad East Omkar Realtors & Developers Pvt. Ltd. 605 Q4 2020 Sunteck City – Avenue I Goregaon West Sunteck Realty 480 Q4 2020 A CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RESEARCH PUBLICATION Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global Data collated from primary and secondary resources. Estimations are subject to change real estate services firm that delivers exceptional value for * Rental and capital values have been depicted only for key submarkets real estate occupiers and owners. Cushman & Wakefield is ** Quoted capital value of new launches is on carpet area based on agreement values which includes, Base Rate, Car Parking Charges, Internal Development Charges, etc. among the largest real estate services firms with The above values for high-end segment are for units typically of 1,200-3,000 sf approximately 51,000 employees in 400 offices and 70 countries. In 2018, the firm had revenue of $8.2 billion The above values for mid segment are for units typically of 800-1,400 sf across core services of property, facilities and project Affordable housing has been defined as units with a carpet area of 60 sq.mt in metros / 90 sq.mt in non-metros and value up to INR 45 lakhs management, leasing, capital markets, valuation and other services. KEY TO SUBMARKETS Mid Segment Eastern Suburbs: Sion, Wadala, Kurla, Chembur, Ghatkopar, Vikhroli, Powai, Chandivali, ©2020 Cushman & Wakefield. All rights reserved. The information High-end Segment Kanjurmarg, Bhandup, Mulund contained within this report is gathered from multiple sources believed South: Colaba, Cuffe Parade, Nariman Point, Churchgate, Altamount Road, Carmichael Western Suburbs: Andheri, Jogeshwari, Goregaon, JVLR, Malad, Kandivali, Borivali, Dahisar to be reliable. The information may contain errors or omissions and is Road, Malabar Hill, Napeansea Road, Breach Candy, Pedder Road, Tardeo Thane: Thane, Ghodbunder Road presented without any warranty or representations as to its accuracy. South Central: Worli, Prabhadevi, Lower Parel / Parel, Dadar, Matunga Navi Mumbai: Airoli, Ghansoli, Rabale, Koparkhairane, Vashi, Turbhe, Sanpada, Nerul, Belapur, Eastern Suburbs: Wadala, Sion, Kurla, Chembur, Ghatkopar, Vikhroli, Powai, Chandivali Kharghar, Panvel Western Suburbs - Prime: Bandra, Khar, Santacruz, Juhu.
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