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Climate Change Science Compendium 2009

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Climate Change Science Compendium 2009 CLIMATE 2009 CHANGE SCIENCE COMPENDIUM Managing Editor: Catherine P. McMullen Associate Editor: Jason Jabbour Foreword The science has become more irrevocable than ever: Climate change is happening. The evidence is all around us. And unless we act, we will see catastrophic consequences including rising sea levels, droughts and famine, and the loss of up to a third of the world’s plant and animal species. We need a new global agreement to tackle climate change, and this must be based on the soundest, most robust and up-to-date science available. Through its overview of the latest definitive science, this Climate Change Science Compendium reaffirms the strong evidence outlined in the IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report that climate change is continuing apace. In fact, this report shows that climate change is accelerating at a much faster pace than was previously thought by scientists. New scientific evidence suggests important tipping points, leading to irreversible changes in major Earth systems and ecosystems, may already have been reached or even overtaken. Climate change, more than any other challenge facing the world today, is a planetary crisis that will require strong, focused global action. As pressures build for an internationally agreed response, we now have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to come together and address climate change through a newly invigorated multilateralism. This will be our chance to put in place a climate change agreement that all nations can embrace – an agreement that is equitable, balanced and comprehensive. This Climate Change Science Compendium is a wake-up call. The time for hesitation is over. We need the world to realize, once and for all, Ban Ki-moon that the time to act is now and we must work together to address this Secretary-General of the United Nations monumental challenge. This is the moral challenge of our generation. United Nations Headquarters, New York September 2009 ii CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE COMPENDIUM Preface If governments are to make informed and transformative choices concern- ing climate change, they require the best and most up to date science. Two years ago, in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report provided the world with conclusive proof that humans are altering the climate. It also outlined a range of sobering impact scenarios covering sea-level rise and extreme weather events, as well as the implications for agricultural production, human health, and the marine food chain. The IPCC’s unique, consensus-led process has been at the centre of catalyzing a political response to the phenomena unfolding across the planet as a result of fossil fuel emissions and land use changes. In a matter of a few weeks’ time, governments will gather in Copenhagen, Denmark, for a crucial UN climate convention meeting. Many governments and stakeholders have requested an annual snapshot of how the science has been evolving since the publication of the IPCC’s landmark fourth assessment in advance of the panel’s next one in 2014. This Climate Change Science Compendium, based on the wealth of peer- reviewed research published by researchers and institutions since 2006, has been compiled by UNEP in response to that request. The findings While the Compendium presents current science, it can never replace the indicate that ever more rapid environmental change is underway with painstaking rigour of an IPCC process—a shining example of how the the pace and the scale of climate change accelerating, along with the United Nations can provide a path to consensus among the sometimes confidence among researchers in their forecasts. differing views of more than 190 nations. The Arctic, with implications for the globe, is emerging as an area of major However, I hope the Compendium will provide important insights into the concern. There is growing evidence that the ice there is melting far faster rapidly developing and fast moving realm of climate science so that the than had been previously supposed. Mountains glaciers also appear to be choices made by leaders in Copenhagen in December are informed by retreating faster. Scientists now suggest that the Arctic could be virtually the best and the latest research available to the international community. ice free in September of 2037 and that a nearly ice-free September by 2028 is well within the realms of possibility. Recent findings also show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. Achim Steiner The impact on the Earth’s multi-trillion dollar ecosystems is also a key area of concern. Under a high emission scenario—the one that most UN Under-Secretary General and Executive Director, closely matches current trends—12–39 per cent of the planet’s terrestrial United Nations Environment Programme surface could experience novel climate conditions and 10–48 per cent September 2009 could suffer disappearing climates by 2100. Rising levels of aridity are also concentrating scientific minds. New research indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterra- nean region will also experience much more severe increases in aridity than previously estimated rendering the entire region, but particularly the southern Mediterranean, even more vulnerable to water stress and desertification. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE COMPENDIUM iii CONTENTS Foreword ii Preface iii Earth Systems 1 Map: Climate Anomalies 2 Introduction 4 How Earth System Science Works 6 Reading the Signs 8 Reasons for Concern 9 Earth’s Ice 13 Glaciers and Ice Caps 14 Arctic Ice 17 Outlet Glaciers in Transition 20 Greenland Ice 20 Antarctic Ice 21 Earth’s Oceans 25 Increased Temperatures 26 Sea-level Rise 26 Circulation 28 Acidification 29 Cumulative Effects 31 Earth’s Ecosystems 33 Marine Ecosystems 34 Terrestrial Ecosystems 37 Shifting Climatic Zones 38 Ecosystem Adaptation 41 Systems Management 43 Managing the Unavoidable 44 Avoiding the Unmanageable 51 Continuing Scientific Role 53 Glossary 54 Acronyms and Abbreviations 58 References 59 Acknowledgements 68 iv CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE COMPENDIUM EARTH SYSTEMS CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE COMPENDIUM 1 Significant!"#$"%"&'$()*+",'(-).$/,'+"-0)'$1)23-$(0)%4/,)5667)8)5669 climate anomalies from 2007 to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`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bJ0('3)<.J#)67>)M/40()0(/4,)(/)B"() "$).+#-4"')'$1)V/4/&&/N)?/40( *JA')"$)P)1-&'1-0E)V'@)?"$10)5Y6)W,8B4Z)?"(B) %+//10)"$)')&-$(J4K)%/4).+#-4"'E V-@"&/)<.J#)69>)M/40()14/J#B()"$)D6)K-'40Z) TYO)W,8B4)?"$1)"$)L'0/)c-'+)!'$)d"-#/Z GJ44"&'$-);W-)<!-C)67> '%%-&("$#)'A/J()TEP),"++"/$)%'4,-40Z)?"(B)76a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ource: NOAA 2007, NOAA 2008, NOAA 2009a 2 CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE COMPENDIUM Significant!"#$"%"&'$()*+",'(-).$/,'+"-0)'$1)23-$(0)%4/,)5667)8)5669 climate anomalies from 2007 to 2009
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