Growth and Change in the Yellowstone-Teton Region

March, 2007

Study Report by Dr. Larry Swanson O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West University of Montana

Prepared for the Yellowstone Business Partnership

The region extending in all directions from Yellowstone National Park, occupying at least 25 counties in three states – Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming – is experiencing relatively fast growth and fundamental changes in its economy. At the time of the 2000 Census, about 640,000 people lived in this region, up from 560,000 people at the time of the 1990 Census. Today, the population of the region stands at over 700,000, with most living in or nearby one of the region’s four major population centers, including Billings, Idaho Falls, Pocatello, and Bozeman. Each of these cities has grown into increasingly dynamic employment centers for the increasing number of area residents and businesses.

Most of the region’s smaller cities and towns also are seeing population growth, with more and more people drawn to the region’s high quality environment. As in many other areas of the Interior Mountain West, the Yellowstone Region is growing because more people The large landscapes and environments maintained on the expansive federal public lands of want to live in attractive areas with big natural the region have become the chief economic asset of the Yellowstone Region. Yellowstone landscapes, towering mountains with healthy forests and and Grand Teton National Parks lie at the center of the Yellowstone Region, both jewels of the grasslands, large wildlife populations, plentiful outdoor nation’s internationally coveted national park system. Surrounding these parks are many and recreational opportunities, and attractive and more national forest lands and forest wilderness areas, creating one of the largest wild land welcoming communities. But this growth presents both complexes in North America. Within these complexes in the valley floors and plateaus reside opportunities and challenges – opportunities for greater over 700,000 people and many more to come. The key question for the future will be: “How prosperity for area residents and challenges in how this can the region’s businesses and communities grow and prosper, while simultaneously growth can be guided and sustained. protecting and enhancing the region’s chief economic asset – its high quality environment?”

Executive Summary in inappropriate places where environmental resources and assets are unduly and unnecessarily degraded or lost in the process. Growth and Change in the Yellowstone-Teton Region

Seasonality is a factor in the functioning of the region’s economy, The 25-county region centered around Yellowstone and Grand Teton particularly for communities and businesses nearby the national National Parks is seeing considerable population growth, with parks and outside of the major regional population centers. accelerating growth in the early ‘90s tied to large shifts in population However, this seasonality, as measured by employment fluctuations migration patterns in the West. The Rocky Mountain West region of over the course of a year, is steadily diminishing overtime as the the U.S. has become very fast-growing and this growth is occurring population of the region grows, personal income expands, and the throughout the 25-county Yellowstone-Teton region. More and more region’s economy diversifies and slowly matures. Most of the people are moving to the region, largely drawn by the region’s high region’s cities are growing and prospering as recent changes in the quality of life and spectacular environmental amenities. economy and the location of business activity increasingly favors

smaller cities. However, it’s increasingly important that leaders in As the region’s overall population grows, this is stimulating increased these small cities recognize the importance of area natural resource construction activity and rising employment. As this process has amenities and high quality environment they sustain to their growth continued, area income has grown and the economy of the region and future prosperity. The region’s more rural areas also are has expanded and diversified beyond increased construction and prospering and advancing economically with few exceptions. real estate activity and income and into sectors like health care, professional and technical services, finance and insurance, and local The region’s population is aging and this presents new needs with government. More recently, there also has been expansion in regard to health care planning and housing. It also will challenge the mining and oil and gas activity in the larger region, spurred by rapidly region as more area residents move into retirement and leave the rising crude oil prices since 2004. workforce. Younger age adults with young families will become

increasingly important in regenerating the region’s workforce and The biggest economic opportunity for the region lies in its ability to renewing aging communities. Well-designed and funded programs continue to grow its economy and expand area economic opportunity for workforce development and education must become centerpieces and well-being among the region’s residents, with this opportunity in the region’s economic advancement. Transportation-related primarily linked to the growing importance of area amenities in area issues will grow in this region, already challenged by difficulties in growth. Land-based amenities like forests, mountains, streams, and intra-regional movement posed by geography, public land obstacles, grasslands on vast landscapes along with the wildlife populations and cross-jurisdictional planning and funding for transportation. these sustain have become the region’s chief economic assets. The biggest challenge lies in not degrading and losing many of these Finally, many challenges facing the region in the future require assets as the region and its communities grow and businesses greater regional cooperation across counties and across state lines. expand. To avoid this, it is becoming increasingly important to Because of this, it is becoming increasingly important for carefully and thoughtfully guide and manage growth in the region. communities and businesses occupying this large region to steadily

develop and adopt some semblance of a common regional identity Another challenge lies in how the region will pursue opportunities and vision for the future. Both are necessary if the region is to both tied to energy development in many areas of the region. The more retain its unique qualities and strategically build a future around permanent sustainability of economic prosperity in the region them. requires that this development not be done in inappropriate ways or

YBP – Swanson – p. i Larger Population Trends Shifts and changes in area population Influence of Public Lands For areas of the mountain region growth within the Yellowstone Region can best be interpreted outside of the largest metro areas, growth also has been influenced against a backdrop of change in the larger region surrounding the by proximity of these areas to various types of federal public lands. 25-county region. After fairly stagnant growth during the 1980s, the An analysis of growth trends for largely non-metro counties of this Interior West of the U.S. became one of the nation’s fast-growing mountain region found that growth rates were significantly higher for regions during the decade of the 1990s. Much of this growth is areas nearby national park and national forest lands than for areas focused in mountainous areas of the Interior West, including the not nearby these public lands. Population grew by 22 percent for Yellowstone Region. Population growth in counties within this these areas nearby national park lands in the ‘90s, as compared to mountainous region increased from 12 percent in the ‘80s to over 27 only 12.5 percent growth by areas not nearby these lands. Growth percent in the ‘90s. More recently, this growth is continuing, but at a nearby forest lands averaged 18.7 percent in the ‘90s. significantly slower pace. This suggests that much of the growth to the Interior West is being Sea Change in Migration Patterns The relatively fast population “amenity-driven,” favoring higher growth in areas nearby national growth that has been occurring in the Interior Mountain region since park and national forest lands, with much lower growth rates in areas the early ‘90s has been largely spurred by a “sea change” in not having amenities tied to these public lands. This has significant population migration patterns. Many more people are now moving implications for areas in the Yellowstone – Teton Region since most into this mountain region than the number moving away, considering areas and communities in the region are nearby national park and only those who are changing their county of permanent residence in national forest lands. the process (this excludes part-time residents of the region who may have a home in the region, but have not made it their permanent Population Growth Trends in the Yellowstone - Teton Region residence). Net migration accounted for over 60 percent of the total Four of the region’s 25 counties are clearly regional population population growth that occurred in this mountain region in the ‘90s. centers and centers of employment. These include Yellowstone (Billings), Bonneville (Idaho Falls), Bannock (Pocatello), and Gallatin The shift in migration patterns in the ‘90s resulted in population (Bozeman). Teton County, Wyoming, although small in population, growth throughout much of the Interior West. Since 2000, however, is increasingly functioning as if it were a much larger population migration into the region has become more selective, focusing in center because of its relatively high level of employment. much fewer areas – many of which continue to be “pockets of growth.” Several counties within the Yellowstone Region are among In 2005 the total population of the region exceeded 690,000, with 56 the fast-growing counties in this mountain region. These include percent of these residents living in the four regional population center Teton County, Idaho, with growth of 55 percent in the last ten years. counties, up slightly from 53 percent of residents in 1980. This Gallatin County in Montana, Teton and Sublette Counties in suggests that population growth in percentage terms has been Wyoming all had growth of more than 25 percent. balanced between these regional center counties and the other more rural counties in the region. About 28 percent of the region’s Growth in the 1990s and since 2000 in this mountain region tended population lives in counties “closely-linked” to the regional center to be highest in fringe areas of its very largest metro areas. counties and the remainder (16 percent) lives in the region’s more However, growth increased significantly for many of the region’s rural counties. smaller cities, like those found in the Yellowstone Region, and for the region’s more rural areas. In the period of accelerating growth in the 1990s, the fastest growth occurred in the four regional center counties, rising by 18 percent

YBP – Swanson – p. ii versus 14 percent growth in their fringe counties and 17 percent accounting for 75 percent of their entire growth in the 1990s. Net growth in more isolated and rural portions of the region. Since 2000, migration accounted for only 9 percent of population growth in the the population of the four regional center counties has grown by 8 Idaho Falls Sub-Area in the 1990s and only 15 percent in the percent versus 7 percent growth region-wide. Pocatello Sub-Area.

Role of Net Migration in Area Growth In the 1990s net migration Area Housing Growth As the number of people living in the region accounted for half of all growth in the regional center counties, less grew from 528,000 in 1980 to 691,000 in 2005, the number of than 44 percent in their fringe areas, and 66 percent in the more housing units in the region grew from 205,700 to almost 297,000. isolated and rural counties. There was a sea change in migration Population is projected forward for each county based upon average patterns in the ‘90s, with a flood of new migrants moving into the annual growth rates for the last four years, resulting in a region total Interior West. One of the destinations for this wave of new migrants population of 803,000 by 2015. This is an increase over the next ten was the Yellowstone – Teton Region. years of 112,000 people – a 14 percent increase. The ratio of the population to the number of housing units in the region has been Sub-Areas of the Region The 25-county Yellowstone - Teton falling as the population ages and family and household sizes Region can be generally subdivided into six identifiable sub-areas. decrease. At this projected growth in the population it is estimated Four of these are centered around the region’s four primary that the region will add more than 55,000 additional housing units population centers and are referred to as the Billings 5-county Sub- from its current total – an increase of about 19 percent. Area (Yellowstone, Carbon, Stillwater, and Sweet Grass in Montana, and Park in Wyoming), the Bozeman 4-county Sub-Area (Gallatin, Based upon a mapping of areas of the U.S. with fast-growing Park, Madison, and Beaverhead, all in Montana), the Idaho Falls 5- housing numbers, the Yellowstone - Teton Region can be county Sub-Area (Bonneville, Madison, Jefferson, Fremont, and considered one of these regions. Clark, all in Idaho), and the Pocatello 5-county Sub-Area (Bannock, Bingham, Caribou, Bear Lake, and Franklin, all in Idaho). Another Important Shifts in Population Age Characteristic Population sub-area can be identified for Jackson because of Teton County’s growth in the region during the 1990s was concentrated among two relative high employment in relation to its population. The Jackson age groupings – persons at ages from their early 40s to late 50s 4-county Sub-Area includes Teton, Lincoln, and Sublette Counties in (“baby boomers”) and persons between 15 and 25 (children of Wyoming and Teton in Idaho, where Driggs is located and where boomers). As the large boomer group continues to age, this will many persons who work in Jackson live. The six and last sub-area result in the overall aging of the entire population. This is resulting in is the remaining two counties in the region’s southeast periphery – steady increases in the median age of county populations. Several Fremont and Hot Springs Counties in Wyoming, the Riverton/Lander of the region’s more rural counties already had median ages Sub-Area. exceeding 40 years of age at the time of the 2000 Census. Population aging is much less of a factor in counties with large The Billings Sub-Area is the most populated sub-area in the region Mormon populations and relatively large and young families. with over 185, 000 residents in 2005. The Riverton/Lander Sub-Area is the least populated with 41,000 residents. The Jackson and However, the overall aging of the region’s population will translate Bozeman Sub-Areas are the fastest growing ones with the Jackson into a steady increase in the number of working adults reaching ages Sub-Area growing by nearly 40 percent in the 1990 alone and the of retirement. The “front edge” of the baby boom group was 61 Bozeman Sub-Area growing by 25 percent. Net migration is the years of age in January, 2007. In going forward, the region’s fastest greatest factor in area population growth in these two sub-areas, population growth will occur among persons at ages from their early

YBP – Swanson – p. iii 50s to late 60s. Wyoming and Montana are projected to be two of in Madison and Clark Counties in Idaho, both over 15 percent in the four “oldest” populations among states in the coming years, 2004. along with Arizona and Florida, and this is because recent growth in both states was disproportionately focused among persons in their Employment Trends Total employment across the region has 40s and 50s. The aging of populations throughout the Rocky seen steady growth, particularly since the early 1990s. Total Mountain West is projected to lead to slowing population growth in employment, including both full- and part-time jobs, grew from the region in the future. 303,000 in 1990 to nearly 444,000 jobs more recently. In 2004 wage and salary jobs accounted for 334,000 of all jobs (75%) – proprietors Personal Income Growth in the Region The income base of the or self-employment accounted for the other 109,000 jobs. And in the 25-county region has grown from about $10.8 billion in 1990 to over 1990s, wage and salary jobs and proprietor jobs grew by about the $17.8 billion more recently. This is the result of strong growth in same rates – 34 to 35 percent in both cases. More recent growth is income throughout most of the 1990s and growth that is largely tending to favor faster growth in proprietors. continuing. The biggest contributor to income growth in the region is labor earnings. Investment income grew rapidly in the 1990s as well, Of the 444,000 jobs in 2004, most were in the private sector – over but has been stagnant since 2000. Transfer payment income also is 360,000 of these jobs. Private non-farm jobs grew by 41 percent in growing. the 1990s as compared to only 16 percent growth in the 1980s. Public sector jobs grew by about 17 percent in both of these In future years, non-employment sources of income, like investment decades. Growth since 2000 is about twice as fast in the private income and transfer payments, can be expected to add increasingly non-farm sector as in the public sector. to the region’s income growth, reflecting the steadily aging population. As more residents of the population reach their 60s and The four regional center counties have the highest employment older ages, these non-employment income sources will grow levels, with Yellowstone the highest at over 95,000 jobs, Gallatin is particularly fast – sometime that is occurring in many areas across next with 60,000, Bonneville third with 59,000, and Bannock fourth the U.S. with 45,000. Teton County, Wyoming, where Jackson is located is fifth at nearly 24,000 jobs – considerably higher than the number of Measures of Economic Well-being in the Region The most people living in Teton County. This reflects this county’s prowess as frequently used indicator of area economic well-being is per capita a regional employer. income, which is a simple average of income per person. Residents throughout the region saw significantly higher per capita income Teton County, Wyoming, also is experiencing the fastest increases in the 1990s than in the previous decade and this healthy employment growth, with growth of over 150 percent since 1990. growth is continuing. Poverty rates have been largely falling Gallatin County, Montana, is second with growth of 87 percent. throughout the region since the late 1980s. The region-wide poverty Gallatin also had the largest absolute increase in employment during rate in 2004 was 11.5 percent, down slightly from 1999 and down this period, adding nearly 28,000 jobs since 1990. Yellowstone significantly from 13.2 percent in 1989. County added nearly 25,000. Bonneville added 19,000, while Bannock added 14,000 and Teton County, Wyoming, added almost The region’s highest per capita income and lowest poverty rate is in 10,000. So, job growth in the region has been focused most heavily Teton County, Wyoming. And the region’s lowest per capita income in the more populated regional center counties. levels are in Madison, Fremont, Bear Lake, Jefferson, Franklin, and Bingham Counties in Idaho. The region’s highest poverty rates are

YBP – Swanson – p. iv Sector Employment Trends The single largest employer among service sectors like health care and professional and technical major sectors in the region is retail trade with nearly 54,000 jobs in services. But there also was a gain in manufacturing – up by $43 2004. Health care is second with 42,000 jobs, followed by million between 2001 and 2004, reaching a total of $667 million in accommodation and food services (lodging establishments, 2004. restaurants and food stores) with 39,000. Local government, which includes local public schools as well as city and county governments, Sector Labor Earnings Trends in the Larger 3-State Region is next with 37,000 jobs, closely followed by construction. Because data are more complete at the sector level at the state level than the county level, trends in sector labor earnings across the 3- In recent years the sector with the biggest increase in the number of state region of Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming also were noted. In jobs is health care where jobs grew by 4,900 between 2001 and this 3-state region that surrounds the Yellowstone - Teton Region, 2004. Far behind in second among sectors is construction with an the largest sector measured by labor earnings is local government at increase of 3,200 jobs. In the four regional center counties, job $5.4 billion in 2004. It is closely followed by health care at $5.3 growth was highest in construction – up by more than 2,900 jobs billion and manufacturing at $5.1 billion. Next is construction at $4.8 between 2001 and 2004 – followed by health care with an increase billion, retail trade at $4.6 billion, and professional and technical of 2,750 jobs. In the 21 other counties in the region, jobs grew the services at $4 billion. Mining was next at $2.9 billion. most in health care (up 2,140) and in local government (up 1,300) and accommodation and food services (up 1,200). Real estate jobs The sector with the biggest increase in labor earnings between 1995 grew by over 900 and mining jobs increased by 840. and 2005 was health, growing by more than $2 billion. It was followed in growth by construction with a $1.7 billion increase and Labor Earnings Growth Among Sectors It was extremely difficult professional and technical services with an increase of just under to estimate labor earnings at the sector level for all of the counties in $1.7 billion. Local government grew by $1.46 billion, while mining the region because of the extent of data suppression for the more grew by $1.41 billion. rural counties. Income and employment data at the more detailed sector level are often withheld when a small number of businesses in Trends in Construction Industry Growth in the Yellowstone - a county account for a large percentage of a given sector’s activity. Teton Region Because of the region’s growing population and income bases, construction has been steadily increasing on an However, labor earnings data were largely available for the more annual basis in the region since the early 1990s. Construction labor populated counties in the region and estimates were compiled for the earnings totaled only $455 million annually across the region in four regional center counties. In these four counties the sector with 1989, but had grown to over $1.14 billion in 2004. Virtually all of the the highest labor earnings was health care at $946 million in 2004. region’s sub-areas experienced large increases in construction This sector also had the largest increase in labor earnings between activity over this period with the biggest percentage gains in the 2001 and 2004, up by $121 million adjusted for inflation. Bozeman Sub-Area – up 164 percent in Gallatin County alone in the Construction had the second highest gain ($98 million) and the fourth 1990s – and in the Jackson, Idaho Falls, and Billings Sub-Areas – in largest labor earnings in 2004 (over $660 million). The sector called most cases, gains of over 100 percent in the ‘90s. professional and technical services (accountants, engineers, architects, lawyers, computer specialists, etc.) had the third biggest These rapid increases in construction labor earnings are making gain ($84 million) and was second highest overall in 2004 at $829 portions of the Yellowstone Region increasingly economically million. Gains tended to be highest among construction and growth dependent on construction as a source of labor earnings and dependent sectors, like construction and real estate, and among income. A mapping of counties throughout the U.S. for 2003-04,

YBP – Swanson – p. v isolating ones with particularly high levels of construction labor they are staying roughly constant as a proportion of all labor earnings in relation to local personal income levels, reveals that the earnings in the region – roughly 14 percent in 1980, 1990, and 2004. Yellowstone – Teton Region is one of these areas. Counties with the highest dependencies are Gallatin, Lincoln, Sublette, Teton (ID), Trends in Mining and Oil and Gas There is a high degree of data Bonneville, Teton (WY), Park (WY), and Madison (MT), all with suppression at the county-level for the mining sector and, construction labor earnings of $1.3 million or more for every $20 particularly, for the oil and gas sub-sector of mining. But using state- million in area total personal income. level data where suppression is less of a problem, there have been significant increases in oil and gas industry labor earnings in recent Several of these counties also have high dependencies on labor years among Rocky Mountain states. In Wyoming alone, these earnings received from real estate sales and transactions and real earnings grew from $428 million in 2003 to $718 million in 2005. estate developments. So, in many ways, the region has become Montana saw only modest gains in this period and totaled about increasingly “growth-dependent” in viewing where its labor earnings $200 million in 2005. Idaho has very little oil and gas activity growth is in part focusing. anywhere in the state.

Trends in Travel and Tourism Trends in growth and change A mapping of available data for several periods in time over the last among major sectors heavily influenced by area travel and tourism 30 years shows that there have been and continue to be significant also were examined. It’s important to note that the sectors used in levels of oil and gas exploration and extraction activity in portions of this analysis don’t capture all labor earnings in the region tied to the Yellowstone Region. There also are large mines in Stillwater and travel and tourism. But they do help understand how travel industry Sweet Grass Counties in Montana (platinum-palladium) and in activity is changing overtime in the region because they are so Caribou County, Idaho (phosphate). There will undoubtedly be heavily affected by travel and tourism. added incentive for oil and gas exploration and drilling in portions of the region as oil prices continue to rise and stay very high. Essentially what was found is that sectors like accommodation and food services; arts, entertainment, and recreation; and retail trade Trends in Area Agriculture The 25-county Yellowstone Region are steadily growing, measured in employment earnings. Labor has over 15,000 farms and ranches and these contain roughly 16.7 income from these sectors grew from an estimated $990 million in million acres of private agricultural land, mainly pasture and grazing 1980 to $1.06 billion in 1990, before growing to $1.8 billion in 2004. lands. There are a large number of small farms in the region (5,870 So there has been steady growth with most of this growth since the or 38 percent under 50 acres in size). But the vast majority of the early 1990s. region’s ag land is owned and managed by about 1,575 operations that are 2,000 acres in size and larger. These large farms and The Jackson Sub-Area has the highest dependency on these travel ranches contain 13.1 million acres, or about 78 percent of the total. and tourism related labor earnings. They accounted for 21 percent of all labor earnings in this sub-area in 2004, but this was down from Year-to-year profitability among agricultural producers in the region 26 percent in the early ‘90s. The Bozeman 4-county sub-area has has been tenuous, with production costs in many years actually the second highest dependency on these labor earnings at 18 exceeding marketing receipts. This creates uncertainty about the percent in 2004. Among individual counties, Teton County, future sustainability of many agricultural operations and impetus for Wyoming, had the highest dependency at nearly 28 percent in 2004, more and more to become something other than “working” farms and followed by Park County, Montana, at 21 percent. Region-wide, ranches. The ownership and management of increasing portions of although these tourism-related sector labor earnings are growing, the region’s current ag land will change as area land values climb

YBP – Swanson – p. vi reflecting the region’s growing attractiveness for new migrants and Seasonality also revealed itself in area traffic flows. These tended to persons seeking rural spaces for vacation homes. swing from lows to high during a given year by 100 percent and more and were highest in areas nearby gateways to the national parks. Area Seasonality in Employment Estimates were made of area However, the region as a whole experiences a great deal of traffic seasonality using monthly data on the size of the labor force and seasonality, as evidenced by large swings during the year in traffic employment levels compiled by state labor departments. The region counts on major interstate highways in the region’s periphery areas. has experienced some seasonality in employment levels, but the impact of these is steadily decreasing region-wide as total employment grows and the region’s economy expands. In the early ‘90s the yearly monthly high for employment was 283,800 versus a monthly low of 267,000 – a difference of 16,800 or a 6.3 percent fluctuation in employment from the low to the high. More recently in 2005-06 this fluctuation from low to high was 16,900, but this represented a swing of only 4.6 percent from low to high.

So, while seasonality in employment remains roughly constant region-wide over this extended period of time, its significance is becoming less because base employment in the region is growing. However, seasonality in employment is a significant factor in seven of the region’s counties, including Teton (WY), Teton (ID), Park (WY), Park (MT), Madison (ID), Madison (MT), and Fremont (ID). All seven of these counties are non-regional center counties, although Teton County, Wyoming, in part functions as a regional employment center, but this employment is highly seasonal.

But, still, in virtually all of these counties, seasonality is becoming much less of a factor overtime, as base employment levels grow. For all seven counties the seasonal employment fluctuation in 1993 represented a 30 percent swing from low to high. In 2003 this swing was 19 percent and in 2006 was 15 percent. So, growth in the region’s population, income, and employment bases is allowing most areas to steadily reduce the effects of seasonal employment on their overall employment bases. However, seasonality will remain a problem in some of the counties, particularly Teton County, Wyoming, and Teton County, Idaho, as well as Park County, Wyoming, because of the influences of national park visitation fluctuations.

YBP – Swanson – p. vii Technical Materials Contents Pg. 10, Areas Nearby National Park Lands and National Forest Lands in the West Mapping of areas nearby national park lands Growth and Change in the Yellowstone-Teton Region and national forest lands in the West

Pg. 11 - 12, Public Lands Proximity and Growth in Largely Non- Pg. 1, The Larger Rocky Mountain West Region of the Interior metro Areas of the Interior West Mountain Region Examination U.S. West Map and identification of “mountain counties” for use in of population distribution and patterns of growth among mountain examining trends in larger region surrounding the Yellowstone counties in the Interior West, based upon their proximity to public Region lands

Pg. 2, Trends and Patterns of Population Growth in the Larger Pg. 13 - 16, “Mountain Counties” in the Rocky Mountain West Region Population growth trends for the larger region in the ‘80s, Table showing individual counties classified as “mountain counties” ‘90s, and since 2000 with these counties rank-ordered by population growth, 1995-2005

Pg. 3, Areas of Rapid Growth or Decline Maps showing county- Pg. 17, The Larger 25-County Greater Yellowstone Region level growth patterns and trends for recent time periods Mapping and description of the 3-state, 25-county region centered

around Yellowstone and Teton national parks Pg. 4, Contributions to Region-wide Population Growth by Net

Migration Impacts of shifting migration patterns on population Pg. 18, Primary Cities and Population Centers of the growth in the Interior Mountain West Yellowstone Region Listing of all incorporated areas in the 25-

county region with populations exceeding 2,400 and discussion of Pg. 5, Areas of Population Growth or Decline Through Net the region’s major regional population centers Migration Only Maps showing population change for recent periods solely attributable to net migration Pg. 19, Urban-Rural Characteristics of the 25-County

Yellowstone Region Sub-map of the Yellowstone Region, showing Pg. 6 - 7, Urban-Rural Patterns of Growth Among Mountain how individual counties are classified under the READ system, and Counties in the Interior West Mapping of counties in the Interior identification of how population is distributed among the region’s West based upon their urban-to-rural classifications under the regional center counties and other more rural counties Regional Economies Assessment Database system and examination of growth trends based upon urban-rural differences Pg. 20, Urban vs. Rural Dimensions of the Yellowstone Region’s

Population Growth Analysis of recent population growth by urban Pg. 8, Focus on Population Growth in Mountain Counties and rural areas of the region Outside Major Metro Areas Focused analysis of population growth trends among areas of the Mountain West, including the Yellowstone Pg. 21, Sub-Regional Areas of the Larger Yellowstone Region Region, that are outside of major metro areas Identification of how the 25-county region can be generally sub-

divided by sub-area, including those centered around major Pg. 9, Influence of Federal Lands on Regional Growth Patterns population centers Map of national public lands in the U.S. by ownership categories

YBP – Swanson – p. viii Pg. 22, Overall Population Growth in the 25-County Region Pg. 34, Changing Age Features of the Rocky Mountain West Analysis of growth region-wide since the mid-70s and annual growth Population Similar analysis of population distribution and growth by age for the larger 5-state region of the Rockies Pg. 23 - 24, Yellowstone Region Population Growth by Sub-Area Charts and discussion of population growth and trends by sub-area, Pg. 35, Age Shifts Impacts on Future Population Growth in the including contributions to growth by net migration Rocky Mountain West Projected population growth in Montana and Wyoming by age group and expected decreases in the rates of Pg. 25 - 26, Population Growth by Component by Sub-Area, population growth among Rocky Mountain West states 1990 though 2005 Examination of components of population growth for recent period for each Yellowstone Region sub-area Pg. 36, A Growing Elderly Population Mapping of the steady increase in the proportion of the U.S. population that is 65 and older Pg. 27 – 28, Population Levels Overtime for Counties in the 25- and identification of fast-aging areas of the nation County Yellowstone Region Table showing county-level and sub- area population totals and identification of housing unit totals for Pg. 37, Total Personal Income Growth in the 25-County Region each county and sub-area Examination of total personal income growth in the region since the early ‘80s, including annual growth over the period Pg. 29, Current and Projected Housing Numbers in the Yellowstone Region Charting of past and projected population and Pg. 38, Region-wide Growth in Income by Major Source housing unit counts for counties and sub-areas of the region Examination of the composition of personal income growth, including change in labor income, investment income, and transfer payment Pg. 30, Areas of High Housing Growth in the U.S. Mapping of income areas of the U.S. where housing growth was particularly high in recent time periods. Pg. 39, Total Personal Income by Major Source by Yellowstone Region Sub-Area Table showing personal income by component Pg. 31, Shifting Age Composition of the 25-County Yellowstone for the sub-areas of the Yellowstone Region Region’s Population Charts showing the distribution of the region’s population by single ages and growth in population between Pg. 40, Growing Area Dependence on Non-Employment Income 1990 and 2000 by single age Sources Mapping for recent periods of local area dependence on non-employment income sources, measured as shares of total Pg. 32, Median Age of the Region’s Population Overtime Chart personal income showing median age of county populations in the last three population censuses, with counties rank-order by age Pg. 41 - 42, Per Capita Income Levels Among Area Counties and Sub-Areas Yellowstone Region counties by per capita income Pg. 33, Population Growth by 5-Year Age Groupings Through levels 2005 Examination of population distribution overtime by 5-year age groupings, showing growth by age grouping Pg. 43, Trends in Poverty in the Yellowstone Region County- level poverty rates overtime in the region

YBP – Swanson – p. ix Pg. 44 - 48, County Income Distribution for Households and Families, 1999 Table showing income distribution among Pg. 59, Recent Growth in Sector Labor Earnings in Yellowstone households and families for Yellowstone Region counties and sub- Regional Center Counties Examination of labor income levels for areas from the 2000 Census major sectors of the economy in the 4 regional center counties

Pg. 49, Region-wide Growth in Employment in the Yellowstone Pg. 60, Sector Labor Earnings Change in the Larger Region – Region Analysis of total employment growth in the region since the Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming Examination of labor earnings early ‘80s and annual changes over that period trends among major NAICS sectors since 1990 in the three states using state-level data Pg. 50, Employment Change in the Region by Wage & Salary vs. Proprietor Employment Examination of total employment growth Pg. 61, Recent Growth in Sector Labor Earnings Across the by these major categories Larger 3-State Region Sector growth in labor earnings for the three states, providing context for change in the Yellowstone Region Pg. 51, Public vs. Private Employment Growth in the Yellowstone Region Examination of total employment change for Pg. 62, Trends in Construction Activity in the Yellowstone government and private sector employers in the region Region Focus on labor earnings levels in the construction sector across the 25-county region and analysis of growth trends Pg. 52 - 53, Total Employment by Major Type by Yellowstone Region Sub-Area Table showing employment levels overtime and Pg. 63, Construction Activity by Yellowstone Sub-Area by major category and type by sub-area Examination of construction industry activity by sub-area and growth for recent periods in time Pg. 54, Distribution of Region-wide Employment by County Examination of employment among counties in the region and Pg. 64, Growing Area Economic Dependency on Construction relation to county populations Activity Identification of areas of the U.S. with relatively high dependencies on construction industry labor earnings, putting into Pg. 55, County-Level Growth in Total Employment County-level context growing dependence on construction in the region employment growth since 1990 in the region Pg. 65, Growing Area Dependency on Income from Real Estate Pg. 56, Yellowstone Region Employment Change by Major Sales and Development Identification of areas of the U.S. with Sector Region-wide employment and employment change by major relatively high dependencies on labor earnings from real estate sector of the economy for 2001-04, using NAICS industry codes activity

Pg. 57, Sector Employment Change in Yellowstone Regional Pg. 66, Sector Labor Earnings Related to Travel and Tourism Population Centers Employment levels and change for major Activity Examination of the importance of travel and tourism NAICS sectors for the 4 major regional center counties in the region activity in the region, as reflected in retail trade, accommodation and food services, and arts, entertainment, and recreation services Pg. 58, Sector Employment Change in the Yellowstone Region Outside of the Major Regional Centers Employment levels and Pg. 67, Sub-Area Economic Dependence on the Travel and change for NAICS sectors for the 21 other counties in the region Tourism Industry in the Yellowstone Region Examination of the

YBP – Swanson – p. x dependence on various Yellowstone Region sub-areas on sectors Pg. 81 – 84, County Farm Counts by Size and Farmland by Farm heavily influenced by travel and tourism activity Size: 25-County Yellowstone Region Table showing farm numbers and farm numbers by size for counties in the region Pg. 68, County-Level Variations in Dependency on Travel and Tourism in the Yellowstone Region Examination of the Pg. 85 - 86, Adjustments in Local Area Labor Earnings from importance of sector labor earnings influenced by travel and tourism Places of Work to Places of Residence County-level analysis of at the county level residential adjustments for labor earnings by where they are earned (places of work) to where workers live (places of residence) Pg. 69 – 73, Travel & Tourism Related Labor Earnings for Counties in the 25-County Yellowstone Region Table showing Pg. 87, Inter-County Labor Earnings Flows in the Billings Sub- labor earnings estimates for major SIC and NAICS sectors and sub- Area Analysis of how labor earnings flow between regional centers sectors heavily influenced by travel and tourism activity for counties and surrounding counties, using the Billings sub-area as example and sub-areas of the region Pg. 88, Seasonality in Labor Force and Employment in the Pg. 74, Area Trends in Mining and Oil and Gas Exploration and Yellowstone Region Examination of monthly counts for labor force Extraction Examination of larger trends in mining and oil and gas and employment levels by state labor departments for the 25-county using state-level data for the five Rocky Mountain West states region and trends in monthly unemployment rates

Pg. 75, Oil and Gas Industry in the West Mapping of areas of the Pg. 89, Seasonality in Labor Force and Employment – Regional 22 western states that have significant oil and gas industry activity, Center Counties vs. Other More Rural Counties in the Region using available data and attempting to overcome data suppression Examination of monthly labor force and employment levels for groupings of counties – regional centers vs. other counties in the Pg. 76, Area Economic Dependence on Mining Industry Labor region and breakdown of unemployment rates for regional centers Earnings Changing economic dependency on mining industry vs. other counties activity and labor earnings by the 5-state Rockies overtime Pg. 90, Relative Significance of Seasonality in Employment Pg. 77 - 78, Mining Industry and Oil and Gas Labor Earnings for Overtime among Counties in the Yellowstone Region Analysis Counties in the 25-County Yellowstone Region Table showing of the relative importance of seasonal fluctuations in employment for available data on labor earnings for counties in the region overtime individual counties in the region overtime for all mining activity and for oil and gas industry activity only Pg. 91, Employment Variability in the Seven Most Seasonal Pg. 79, Financial Conditions and Trends for Agriculture in the Counties in the Region Examination of labor force and Yellowstone Region Examination of financial conditions and employment variability in the seven counties with the greatest trends for agricultural producers in the 25-county region overtime seasonal fluctuations in employment levels over the course of a year and analysis of the relative importance of these fluctuations overtime Pg. 80, Farm and Ranch Size Distribution in the Yellowstone Region Examination of farm and ranch numbers in the region by Pg. 92, Seasonality in Area Traffic Flows in the Yellowstone size in acres, as estimated in recent Censuses of Agriculture Region Examination of monthly traffic counts by state highway departments for national park gateway locations in the region

YBP – Swanson – p. xi

Pg. 93, Selected Highway Locations for Measuring Intr-regional Traffic Mapping of highway locations where traffic counts data are used in measuring traffic flows in the region

Pg. 94, Traffic Counts for Locations nearby Ski Resorts and Periphery Areas of the Region Examination of seasonality in traffic flows for highway locations nearby major ski resorts and for periphery areas of the region including major interstate highways

Pg. 95, Appendix – Age Charts for Regional Population Centers and Sub-Areas of the Yellowstone Region

YBP – Swanson – p. xii The Larger Rocky Mountain West Region of the Interior U.S. West

In order to understand trends and patterns of population growth in the 25-county Yellowstone Region, it is important to examine growth trends at a higher regional scale. We know that population migration patterns have undergone a major transformation over the course of the last ten to fifteen years – a transformation that resulted in the Interior West of the U.S. becoming one of the nation’s fastest growing regions. The relevant region for examining how this growth is playing out within the Interior West can perhaps best be defined by simply using the broad outlines of the Rocky Mountains as a guide.

The map below, developed by geographer John Crowley, shows the outlines of what are considered ranges within the Rocky Mountains, with the bold line encompassing what may be considered principal or primary ranges of the Rockies.

The dark purple area of the illustration above identifies counties that largely fall within the boundaries of the Rocky Mountains. There are 144 of these “mountain counties” and another 65 counties along the fringe of the Rocky Mountains adjacent to these mountain counties, shown in light purple. These 209 mountain and fringe counties are contained with eight states. Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado hold most of them with the remainder in portions of Washington, Oregon, and New Mexico. The 25-county Yellowstone Region occupies almost the very center of this larger region.

In 2005 about 8.5 million people resided in the 144 mountain counties, up from 6.2 million in 1990, an increase of 2.3 million people or more than 37 percent. Another3.2 million live in the

surrounding fringe counties.

YBP – Swanson – p. 1 Trends and Patterns of Population Growth in the The population growth of these mountain and mountain fringe Larger Region counties for three recent periods – 1980-90, 1990-2000, and 2000- 05 – is shown below.

The chart below shows population levels for the Rocky Mountain Total Population Growth by Period: Rocky Mt Cos. West counties and their fringe counties separately for four points in 1,800,000 time over the last 25 years. The population of the mountain counties 1,683,495 grew from 5.5 million in 1980 to 6.2 million in 1990 – an increase of 1,600,000 679,000 people or 12.3 percent. The following decade this growth 1,400,000 greatly accelerated with the population increasing by over 27 percent 1,200,000 All Mountain in ten years and reaching 7.9 million people in 2000. So, growth Cos.(144) went from an increase of 679,000 people in the ‘80s to an increase 1,000,000 of almost 1.7 million people in the ‘90s. More recently in 2005, the 800,000 678,712 628,222 population of these counties had grown to more than 8.5 million. All Mt Fringe 600,000 535,643 Cos.(65) Total Populations Overtime of Rocky Mountain Counties 400,000 256,704 9,000,000 8,518,691 202,831 7,890,469 200,000 8,000,000 0 7,000,000 '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 6,206,974 All Mountain 6,000,000 5,528,262 Source: Swanson, 2007 (using U.S. Census Bureau data) Cos.(144) 5,000,000 Percent Pop. Change by Period: Rocky Mountain Counties All Mt 4,000,000 3,245,757 Fringe 30% 2,988,706 Cos.(65) 27.1% 3,000,000 2,452,058 2,248,776 25% 2,000,000 21.8%

1,000,000 20% All Mountain Cos.(144) 0 15% 12.3% '80 '90 '00 '05 Source: Swanson, 2007, using U.S. Census Bureau data 9.0% All Mt 10% 8.0% 8.6% Fringe Cos.(65) During this same period, the population of the mountain fringe 5% counties grew from 2.25 million in 1980 to 2.45 million in 1990 – an increase of 203,000 people and 9 percent – to almost 3 million 0% people in 2000 – a ten-year increase of almost 537,000 people and '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 22 percent. The 2005 population of these mountain fringe counties Source: Swanson, 2007 (using U.S. Census Bureau data) expanded to over 3.2 million.

YBP – Swanson – p. 2 YBP – Swanson – p. 3 Contributions to Region-wide Population Growth Total Population Growth by Period: Rocky Mt Cos. by Net Migration 1,800,000 1,683,495 The biggest factor in the region’s recent increase in population 1,600,000 growth has been a marked shift in larger migration patterns. Many 1,400,000 more people moved to the region in the ‘90s than in the previous decade, shifting the balance of “net” migration from relatively small 1,200,000 All Mountain negative values to relatively large positive values. Cos.(144) 1,000,000 The upper chart at the right shows population growth by period for 800,000 678,712 628,222 the mountain counties and mountain fringe counties. And the chart 535,643 All Mt Fringe below it shows how much of this population change was accounted 600,000 Cos.(65) for by net migration. Net migration simply compares how many 400,000 256,704 people move to an area versus the number moving away, 202,831 considering only those movers who actually change their counties of 200,000 permanent residence in the process. Not included in any of these 0 population figures are persons moving to the region, building or '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 buying a home, but continuing to maintain their permanent residence Source: Sw anson, 2007 (using U.S. Census Bureau data) elsewhere. For some areas of the Interior West, the numbers of these part-time residents can be substantial. Population Growth by Net Migration Only: Rocky Mt Cos. 1,200,000 But considering only those who do change their residence, 1,024,895 population growth by net migration went from minus 27,000 during 1,000,000 the ‘80s to a positive net increase of more than one million people in the ‘90s. Net migrants to the region accounted for over 60 percent of 800,000 the total population growth of the 144 mountain counties in the ‘90s. All Mountain Net migration also went from negative to positive in the mountain 600,000 Cos.(144) fringe counties and accounted for about 56 percent of their total 400,000 population growth in the last decade. More recent estimates show 302,189 All Mt that this positive net migration continues in the region, but has 232,882 Fringe slowed from the very high levels in the ‘90s. 200,000 119,746 Cos.(65)

Census Bureau “components of change” data were used in these 0 -27,051'80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 calculations. Estimates of births and deaths and net change from -79,634 these – or “natural change” – were used. Estimates of net migration -200,000 were calculated from these two data sets as residuals, subtracting Source: Swanson, 2007 (using U.S. Census Bureau data and natural change at the county level by period from total change. calculating net migration from as the difference between total population change and natural population change)

YBP – Swanson – p. 4 YBP – Swanson – p. 5 Urban-Rural Patterns of Growth Among Mountain Rocky Mountain West Region Counties by READ Urban-to-Rural Types

Counties in the Interior West

It is important to understand how recent growth patterns in this mountain region of the Interior West are playing out in areas based urban-rural characteristics, particularly in relation to the size of cities (major metros versus small regional centers) and proximity of more rural areas to cities of varying sizes. The map below shows population distribution in the Interior West region at the time of the 2000 Census. Red dots are shown on the map, each representing 50 people, mapped at the Census block level. The map at the right then shows counties where major population centers of varying sizes are located, with these regional center counties color-coded based upon overall population ranges for these counties. Dark purple counties are “major metro core” counties with county-wide populations of 250,000 people and more. These include counties where Denver, Salt Lake City, and Spokane are located. Light purple counties are ones nearby and “closely-linked” to these cores.

Source: Swanson, O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West, U. of MT

2nd Tier metro cores, like Boise and Fort Collins, are shown in orange, with nearby counties linked to these in light orange. 3rd Tier metros, like Billings, are shown in blue and there are many more smaller regional center counties shown in dark green and dark yellow, like Idaho Falls, Pocatello, and Bozeman.

YBP – Swanson – p. 6 The 144 mountain counties falling within various ranges of the Rocky The chart below shows growth in these mountain counties by these Mountains were sorted by these urban-rural categories to gauge the groupings for recent periods, in absolute terms. And the chart below urban-rural patterns of growth in the region. Eleven of the 144 it shows these changes in relative or percentage terms. counties were large metro cores (dark purple and dark orange) and their combined population in 2005 was over 4.7 million, growing from Total Pop. Growth by Period by Mountain County Types 1,000,000 3.5 million in 1990. Fringe counties of these metro cores (light 897,683 purple and light orange counties), 37 counties in all, had a combined 900,000 Metro Cores (11) population of 1.7 million, up from one million in 1990. The 800,000 Metro Fringe 700,000 population of smaller region center counties (dark blue, dark green, (37) and dark yellow), 12 counties in all, totaled 848,000 in 2005, up from 600,000 Reg. Centers 500,000 460,674 (12) 690,000 in 1990. Fringe counties of these smaller centers, 45 423,300 counties in all, had a population of 721,500 in 2005, up from 571,200 400,000 R.C. Fringe 319,588 (45) in 1990. And the population of more isolated and rural counties 300,000 Iso. Rural 182,193 199,014 within the Rocky Mountains, 39 counties in total, stood at 521,600 in 200,000 (39) 2005, up from 394,500 in 1990. 108,663 101,824 100,000 48,859 29,574 18,865 25,185 Total Populations Overtime of Mountain Counties in the 0 Rockies by Urban-Rural Type '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 5,000,000 4,732,468

4,412,880 Percent Pop. Change by Period by Mountain County Type 4,500,000 50% 44% 4,000,000 45% Metro Cores (11) 40% 3,515,197 Metr o Cor es Metro Fringe 3,500,000 (11) 35% (37) 3,091,897 Metro Fringe 30% Reg. Centers 3,000,000 26% 26% (37) (12) 25% 21% Reg. Centers 20% R.C. Fringe 2,500,000 20% (45) (12) 16% 14% 13% Iso. Rural R.C. Fringe 15% 2,000,000 (39) 1,695,454 (45) 10% 7% 5% 6% 5% 5% 1,496,440 Is o. Rural 4% 5% 1, 50 0 , 0 0 0 5% (39) 1,035,766 0% 853,573 1,000,000 798,888 847,747 '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 660,651 690,225 685,879 721,455 571,228 546,448 496,382 521,567 50 0,0 00 375,693 394,558 The greatest growth in this fast-growing region is occurring in major metro areas and their fringes. However, growth in the smaller 0 centers, their fringe areas, and isolated rural areas greatly '80 '90 '00 '05 Source: Swanson, 2007 (using U.S. Census Bureau data & READ accelerated in the ‘90s and is largely continuing. Outside of the major system) metros, the fastest growth has actually been by isolated rural areas.

YBP – Swanson – p. 7 Focus on Population Growth in Mountain Growth by Period of Largely Non-metro Mountain Counties Counties Outside Major Metro Areas 140,000

120,000 114,651 These charts focus on growth patterns among mountain counties 108,663 outside of the largest cities in the region and their surrounding fringe 101,824 Reg. areas – like the 25-county Yellowstone Region - examining the 100,000 Centers (12) contribution to this growth by shifts in migration patterns. The chart R.C. Fringe 80,000 (45) below shows the total populations of these three groups of counties Iso. Rural – small and large regional centers (dark blue, dark green, and dark 60,000 48,859 (39) yellow), fringe areas of these regional centers, and isolated rural 40,000 35,576 counties (shown in gray on the previous color-coded mapping). 29,574 24,780 25,185 18,865 Total Populations Overtime of Mountain Counties 20,000 Outside of Major Metro Areas 0 900,000 847,747 798,888 '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 800,000 721,455 690,225 685,879 700,000 660,651 Growth by Net Migration Only for Non-metro Mountain Reg. Centers 100,000 Cos. 571,228 600,000 546,448 (12) 521,567 79,057 496,382 R.C. Fringe 71,460 500,000 75,000 (45) 61,480 394,558 Reg. Centers 400,000 375,693 Is o. Rural (39) 50,000 (12) 300,000 25,987 R.C. Fringe 25,000 16,121 (45) 200,000 8,222 Iso. Rural 100,000 0 (39) '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 0 -25,000 '80 '90 '00 '05 Source: Sw anson, 2007 (using U.S. Census Bureau data) -28,271-30,119 -37,349 -50,000 The growth rate of isolated rural mountain counties went from 5 Source: Swanson, 2007 (using U.S. Census Bureau data and deriving net migration from birth, death and total pop data) percent growth during the ‘80s to almost 26 percent growth in the ‘90s. Growth by fringe counties of smaller regional centers went During the ‘90s, of the increase in total population by these regional from 4.5 percent to 20 percent. And growth by the smaller regional center counties of almost 109,000, 61,500 or 57 percent was center counties themselves went from 4.5 percent growth in the ‘80s accounted for by net migration. About 70 percent of the total to almost 16 percent growth in the ‘90s. The next two charts shows population gain by fringe counties of these regional centers and total growth by period by area type and growth accounted for only by isolated rural areas in these mountains was by net migration. net migration.

YBP – Swanson – p. 8 Influence of Federal Lands on Regional Growth These more than 740,000 square miles of lands account for over Patterns one-third of all lands in the 22-state West. The largest concentrations are found in states in the Rocky Mountain West,

Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and California/Nevada. Among the In the 48 contiguous states there are around 810,000 square miles of eleven states in this region, Nevada has the largest number with land under some type of U.S. national government management and nearly 98,000 square miles, accounting for 88 percent of the entire control. Over 90 percent of these lands, or about 740,000 square state. Washington has the smallest amount of the eleven states with miles, are in the 22 contiguous western states largely west of the 26,000 square miles, accounting for 37 percent of its land mass. Mississippi River. And most are in the 11 states west of the Plains region, that fall in the Interior West and Far West regions of the The Rocky Mountain West region has large concentrations of these country. These national public lands include 280,000 square miles lands spread throughout western Montana, Idaho, western Wyoming, of National Forest Service lands (NPS lands), over 270,000 square Utah, and western Colorado. These lands are exerting an increasing miles of Bureau of Land Management lands (BLM lands), 97,000 influence on population migration and growth trends in recent years, square miles of Bureau of Indian Affairs lands or reservation lands, largely because both the population and economy itself are over 34,000 square miles of National Park Service lands (NPS becoming more “footloose,” or capable of locating increasingly in lands), and 32,000 square miles of lands under the control of either places that are simply desirable places to live and work. the Department of Defense or Department of Energy.

YBP – Swanson – p. 9 Areas Nearby National Park Lands and National Forest Lands in the West

The map below shows large concentrations of National Park Service lands, along with other national public lands contiguous with or nearby these NPS lands. NPS lands are shown in maroon. Forest Service lands nearby these are shown in medium green (F.S. wilderness areas) and light green (national forests). Reservation lands are shown in brown. Counties with geographic centers within 40 miles of these NPS lands are shown in light gray. These are “NPS land counties”. There are 80 counties out of a total of 1,500 in the 22-state region that are classified as NPS land counties, including several in the Yellowstone Region.

The map above shows large concentrations of National Forest Service lands only (NPS lands), including both FS wilderness and wilderness study areas (shown in medium green) and FS national forest lands (shown in light green). Counties shown in light gray are ones whose geographic center falls within 30 miles of these NPS lands. There are a total of 409 counties out of 1,500 in the entire West that are classified as NFS land counties, using this method. Most of the counties in the 25-county Yellowstone Region are nearby these NPS lands.

Once identified in this fashion, how population growth trends and patterns may be influenced by close proximity to these types of national public lands is carefully analyzed.

YBP – Swanson – p. 10 Public Lands Proximity and Growth in Largely Pop. Growth for Non-metro Mountain and Mountain Fringe Non-metro Areas of the Interior West Mountain Counties by Proximity to Public Lands Region 350,000 295,589 300,000 Of the 144 “mountain counties” and 65 “mountain fringe counties” 250,000 NP Lands previously identified, 141 of these are in areas largely outside of the (19) region’s largest cities and their immediately surrounding areas. 200,000 FS Lands Although there are some small metropolitan areas in these, most of (96) 150,000 these 96 counties are largely non-metro. Of these 141 non-metro Others mountain and mountain fringe counties, 19 are nearby NPS lands, 100,000 77,012 77,092 (26) 67,776 96 are nearby NFS lands without nearby NPS lands, and the 40,567 37,811 remaining 26 are either not nearby any public lands or are nearby 50,000 32,247 21,398 -1,971 only BLM lands. The chart below shows population counties for 0 these three groupings of counties. '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 -50,000 Source: Swanson, 2007 Total Pops Overtime of Non-metro Mountain and Mountain Fringe Counties by Proximity to Public Lands The increase of more than 77,000 new residents by NPS land 2,500,000 counties in the ‘90s represents a 22 percent increase, with growth since 2000 through 2005 of almost 9 percent. Nearly 60 percent of 1,954,718 2,000,000 1,877,626 this growth, as shown below, resulted from increased net migration. For NFS land counties, about 65 percent of their growth in the ‘90s 1,541,470 1,582,037 NP Lands was from net migration, while for other areas not nearby these lands, (19) 1,500,000 net migration accounted for about 35 percent of growth. FS Lands (96) Pop. Change by Net Migration Only for Non-metro Mountain 1,000,000 Others Counties by Proximity to Public Lands 611,227 632,625 250,000 545,422 543,451 (26) 466,287 428,476 190,649 500,000 351,464 319,217 200,000 NP Lands 15 0 , 0 0 0 (19) 0 FS Lands 10 0 , 0 0 0 '80 '90 '00 '05 (96) 45,097 Source: Swanson, 2007 (using U.S. Census Bureau data and classifying 50,000 25,985 24,295 20,454 Others counties based upon their proximity to NPS and NFS lands) 1,221 0 (26) The 19 NPS land counties combined population was fairly stable -10,377'80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 between 1980 and 1990. But, in the ‘90s, it grew from less than 1.6 -50,000 -68,486 million people to almost 1.9 – an increase of 22 percent – and growth -100,000 in only five years since the 2000 Census is another 9 percent. The -150,000 -120,126 population of the NFS land counties grew by less than 3 percent in the ‘80s, as compared to almost 19 percent growth in the ‘90s. YBP – Swanson – p. 11 Amenity-Driven Growth in the Mountain West and non-metro counties actually in the mountains, 96 counties in all, are Proximity to National Park and National Forest shown in the next chart. Lands Percent Pop. Change in Non-metro Mountain Counties Only by Public Lands Proximity 25% Greatly increased levels of net migration into the Rocky Mountain 22.7% West during the 1990s is propelling growth, with growth rates 20.5% substantially higher in areas nearby national parks and national 20% forest lands, such as the 25-county Yellowstone Region. Percentage growth in recent periods for these three groupings of non-metro NPS Lands mountain and mountain fringe counties are shown below. 15% (13) 12.5% NFS Lands (73) Percent Pop. Change for Non-metro Mountain and 10.1% Others (10) Mountain Fringe Counties by Proximity to Public Lands 10% 8.0% 25% 21.9% 4.9% 5% 3.9% 20% 18.7% 1.4%

NP 0% 15% Lands 12.5% '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 (19) 10.1% FS Lands -2.9% 8.8% -5% 10% (96) Source: Swanson, 2007

Others 5% 4.1%3.5% (26) 2.6% This type of differentiated growth showing considerably faster growth in areas nearby large national parks, like Yellowstone, with 0% moderately slower growth rates in areas nearby national forest lands '80-'90-0.4% '90-'00 '00-'05 without parks, and with much lower rates of growth in areas without -5% these lands, is strong evidence that much of this growth is “amenity- Source: Swanson, 2007 driven.” People are moving to the mountain region and, even to greater degrees, to mountainous areas nearby national parks and Areas nearby national parks grew by 10 percent in the ‘80s, followed forests, because these areas provide the kind of amenities and by almost 22 percent growth in the ‘90s, with growth since 2000 of quality of life they are seeking. And as the population and many almost 9 percent. Areas nearby national forest lands without park businesses become even more foot-loose and capable of picking lands grew by almost 19 percent in the ‘90s, after growth of less than where they want to live and work, the influence of these lands on 3 percent in the ‘80s. Growth in non-metro areas of this mountain migration patterns will only grow. region without any park and forest lands saw increased growth in the

‘90s – up to 12.5 percent from negative growth in the ‘80s – but this With this context, how these growth patterns and trends may be growth was much less than in areas with these national park and playing out in the 25-county Yellowstone Region are examined. forest lands. Growth rates for these recent periods in only those

YBP – Swanson – p. 12 "Mountain Counties" in the Rocky Mountain West according to Rates of Population Growth, 1995 to 2005 (143 counties) Name Yellowstone READ READ Code Description (County Urban-to-Rural NPS FS 1995-2005 Region Cos. State Largest City Code/1 Types) Lands/2 Lands/3 1995 2005 Growth % Extremely Fast-growing Mountain Counties (greater than 50% growth between 1995 and 2005) - 7 cos. Douglas County CO Castle Rock 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 101,937 249,416 145% Archuleta County CO Pagosa Springs 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 7,098 11,886 67% Park County CO Fairplay 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 10,452 16,949 62% Wasatch County UT Heber 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 12,143 18,974 56% Teton County ID Driggs 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 3 3 4,820 7,467 55% Eagle County CO Vail 62a Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 31,595 47,530 50% Canyon County ID Nampa 22 2nd Tier Metro Region Closely Linked County 0 0 109,976 164,593 50% Very Fast-growing Mountain Counties (30 to 50% growth between 1995 and 2005) - 15 cos. Summit County UT Park City 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 23,902 35,001 46% Boise County ID Horseshoe Bend 22 2nd Tier Metro Region Closely Linked County 0 3 5,184 7,535 45% Custer County CO Westcliffe 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 2,702 3,860 43% Utah County UT Provo 11a Major Metro Core (500K +) Core County 0 2 318,391 443,738 39% Kootenai County ID Coeur D'alene 12b Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 92,677 127,668 38% Garfield County CO Glenwood Springs 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 36,377 49,810 37% Mineral County CO Creede 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 683 932 36% Sandoval County NM Rio Rancho Estates 12b Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 78,818 107,460 36% Ouray County CO Ouray 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 3,129 4,260 36% Saguache County CO Center 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 5,201 7,031 35% Ada County ID Boise 21 2nd Tier Metro Region Core County 0 2 256,860 344,727 34% Gilpin County CO Central City 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 3 3 3,688 4,932 34% San Miguel County CO Telluride 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 5,419 7,213 33% Grand County CO Kremmling 62a Small Isolated Rural County 3 3 9,944 13,211 33% Summit County CO Frisco 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 18,873 24,892 32% Fast-growing Mountain Counties (20 to 30% growth between 1995 and 2005) - 19 cos. Gallatin County MT Bozeman 51 Small Regional Trade Center Core County 3 3 60,644 78,210 29% Teller County CO Woodland Park 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 17,112 21,918 28% Teton County WY Jackson 62b Small Isolated Rural County 3 3 14,907 19,032 28% Montrose County CO Montrose 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 29,609 37,482 27% Sublette County WY Pinedale 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 5,515 6,926 26% Ravalli County MT Hamilton 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 31,942 39,940 25% Davis County UT Layton 11a Major Metro Core (500K +) Core County 0 3 214,622 268,187 25% Blaine County ID Ketchum 62a Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 17,108 21,166 24% Routt County CO Steamboat Springs 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 17,295 21,313 23% Bonner County ID Sandpoint 12b Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 33,206 40,908 23% Sanpete County UT Ephraim 62a Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 19,546 24,044 23% Jefferson County MT Boulder 52 Small Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 9,093 11,170 23% Mesa County CO Grand Junction 41 Large Regional Trade Center Core County 0 3 105,968 129,872 23% YBP – Swanson – p. 13 "Mountain Counties" in the Rocky Mountain West according to Rates of Population Growth, 1995 to 2005 (143 counties) Name Yellowstone READ READ Code Description (County Urban-to-Rural NPS FS 1995-2005 Region Cos. State Largest City Code/1 Types) Lands/2 Lands/3 1995 2005 Growth % Larimer County CO Fort Collins 21 2nd Tier Metro Region Core County 2 2 222,750 271,927 22% Morgan County UT Morgan City 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 6,487 7,906 22% Franklin County ID Preston 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 10,192 12,371 21% El Paso County CO Colorado Springs 11a Major Metro Core (500K +) Core County 0 1 469,757 565,582 20% La Plata County CO Durango 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 39,568 47,452 20% Lincoln County ID Shoshone 52 Small Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 0 3,794 4,545 20% Moderately Growing Mountain Counties (10 to 20% growth between 1995 and 2005) Flathead County MT Kalispell 51 Small Regional Trade Center Core County 3 3 69,876 83,172 19% Taos County NM Taos 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 26,656 31,722 19% Santa Fe County NM Santa Fe 12b Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 2 118,462 140,855 19% Hinsdale County CO Lake City 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 644 765 19% Madison County ID Rexburg 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 3 3 26,102 30,975 19% Delta County CO Delta 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 25,249 29,947 19% Jefferson County ID Rigby 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 0 18,245 21,580 18% Gem County ID Emmett 22 2nd Tier Metro Region Closely Linked County 0 3 13,794 16,273 18% Chaffee County CO Salida 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 14,398 16,968 18% Pend Oreille County WA Newport 12b Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 10,776 12,673 18% Camas County ID Fairfield 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 893 1,050 18% Weber County UT Ogden 11a Major Metro Core (500K +) Core County 0 2 180,546 210,749 17% Cache County UT Logan 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 84,006 98,055 17% Fremont County CO Canon City 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 41,239 47,766 16% Stillwater County MT Columbus 32 3rd Tier Metro Region Closely Linked County 0 3 7,336 8,493 16% Lake County MT Polson 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 24,459 28,297 16% Pueblo County CO Pueblo 11a Major Metro Core (500K +) Core County 0 2 130,865 151,322 16% Bonneville County ID Idaho Falls 41 Large Regional Trade Center Core County 3 3 79,527 91,856 16% Daggett County UT Manila 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 817 943 15% Dolores County CO Dove Creek 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 1,583 1,827 15% Payette County ID Payette 22 2nd Tier Metro Region Closely Linked County 0 0 19,237 22,197 15% Gunnison County CO Gunnison 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 12,427 14,226 14% Elmore County ID Mountain Home 22 2nd Tier Metro Region Closely Linked County 0 3 25,052 28,634 14% Lincoln County WY Kemmerer 62a Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 14,073 15,999 14% Broadwater County MT Townsend 52 Small Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 3,976 4,517 14% Salt Lake County UT Salt Lake City 11a Major Metro Core (500K +) Core County 0 1 836,008 948,172 13% Huerfano County CO Walsenburg 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 6,881 7,771 13% Duchesne County UT Roosevelt 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 13,645 15,354 13% Montezuma County CO Cortez 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 22,035 24,778 12% Stevens County WA Colville 12b Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 37,393 42,013 12% Boundary County ID Bonners Ferry 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 9,468 10,619 12%

YBP – Swanson – p. 14 "Mountain Counties" in the Rocky Mountain West according to Rates of Population Growth, 1995 to 2005 (143 counties) Name Yellowstone READ READ Code Description (County Urban-to-Rural NPS FS 1995-2005 Region Cos. State Largest City Code/1 Types) Lands/2 Lands/3 1995 2005 Growth % Lake County CO Leadville 62a Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 6,907 7,738 12% Rich County UT Randolph 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 1,832 2,051 12% Gooding County ID Gooding 52 Small Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 0 12,987 14,461 11% Mineral County MT Superior 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 3,612 4,014 11% Sweet Grass Co. MT Big Timber 32 3rd Tier Metro Region Closely Linked County 0 3 3,310 3,672 11% Missoula County MT Missoula 41 Large Regional Trade Center Core County 0 3 90,413 100,086 11% Carbon County MT Red Lodge 32 3rd Tier Metro Region Closely Linked County 3 3 8,953 9,902 11% Uintah County UT Vernal 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 24,446 26,995 10% Sanders County MT Thompson Falls 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 10,019 11,057 10% Granite County MT Philipsburg 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 2,687 2,965 10% Mora County NM Wagon Mound 12b Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 4,652 5,107 10% Moffat County CO Craig 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 0 12,222 13,417 10% Lewis and Clark Co. MT Helena 51 Small Regional Trade Center Core County 0 3 53,318 58,449 10% Slow Growing Mountain Counties (1 to 10% growth between 1995 and 2005) Madison County MT Ennis 52 Small Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 3 3 6,643 7,274 9% Spokane County WA Spokane 11b Major Metro Core (500K +) Core County 0 0 404,652 440,706 9% Clark County ID Dubois 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 866 943 9% Valley County ID Mccall 22 2nd Tier Metro Region Closely Linked County 0 3 7,697 8,332 8% Boulder County CO Boulder 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 2 2 259,520 280,440 8% Conejos County CO Antonito 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 7,888 8,512 8% Bingham County ID Blackfoot 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 40,648 43,739 8% Denver County CO Denver 11a Major Metro Core (500K +) Core County 0 1 518,958 557,917 8% Las Animas County CO Trinidad 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 14,381 15,446 7% Jefferson County CO Lakewood 11a Major Metro Core (500K +) Core County 0 2 492,154 526,801 7% Rio Arriba County NM Espanola 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 38,211 40,828 7% Washington County ID Weiser 22 2nd Tier Metro Region Closely Linked County 0 3 9,455 10,098 7% Alamosa County CO Alamosa 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 14,372 15,282 6% Bannock County ID Pocatello 41 Large Regional Trade Center Core County 0 3 73,603 78,155 6% Fremont County ID St. Anthony 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 3 3 11,557 12,242 6% Meagher County MT White Sulphur Spring 52 Small Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 1,893 1,999 6% Rio Grande County CO Monte Vista 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 11,606 12,227 5% Glacier County MT Cut Bank 62b Small Isolated Rural County 3 3 12,926 13,552 5% Benewah County ID St. Maries 12b Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 8,795 9,218 5% Park County WY Cody 62b Small Isolated Rural County 3 3 25,481 26,664 5% Clear Creek County CO Idaho Springs 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 3 3 8,808 9,197 4% Idaho County ID Grangeville 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 15,103 15,697 4% Fremont County WY Riverton 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 35,419 36,491 3% Nez Perce County ID Lewiston 41 Large Regional Trade Center Core County 0 3 36,824 37,931 3%

YBP – Swanson – p. 15 "Mountain Counties" in the Rocky Mountain West according to Rates of Population Growth, 1995 to 2005 (143 counties) Name Yellowstone READ READ Code Description (County Urban-to-Rural NPS FS 1995-2005 Region Cos. State Largest City Code/1 Types) Lands/2 Lands/3 1995 2005 Growth % Lincoln County MT Libby 52 Small Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 18,726 19,193 2% Pitkin County CO Aspen 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 14,603 14,914 2% San Juan County CO Silverton 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 565 577 2% Park County MT Livingston 52 Small Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 3 3 15,724 15,968 2% Latah County ID Moscow 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 0 34,339 34,714 1% San Miguel County NM Las Vegas 12b Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 0 29,213 29,530 1% Costilla County CO San Luis 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 3,399 3,424 1% Slow-Declining Mountain Counties (0 to -10% growth between 1995 and 2005) Los Alamos County NM Los Alamos 12b Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 18,750 18,822 0% Uinta County WY Evanston 12a Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 19,884 19,939 0% Whitman County WA Pullman 41 Large Regional Trade Center Core County 0 0 40,457 40,170 -1% Powell County MT Deer Lodge 52 Small Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 7,057 6,999 -1% Lemhi County ID Salmon 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 8,029 7,909 -1% Caribou County ID Soda Springs 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 7,290 7,131 -2% Colfax County NM Raton 62a Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 14,075 13,755 -2% Adams County ID Council 22 2nd Tier Metro Region Closely Linked County 0 3 3,676 3,591 -2% Lewis County ID Craigmont 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 0 3,846 3,750 -2% Teton County MT Choteau 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 0 6,430 6,240 -3% Cascade County MT Great Falls 41 Large Regional Trade Center Core County 0 2 82,201 79,569 -3% Beaverhead County MT Dillon 52 Small Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 9,168 8,773 -4% Bear Lake County ID Montpelier 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 6,459 6,176 -4% Pondera County MT Conrad 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 6,387 6,087 -5% Sweetwater County WY Rock Springs 51 Small Regional Trade Center Core County 0 0 39,849 37,975 -5% Carbon County WY Rawlins 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 16,174 15,331 -5% Albany County WY Laramie 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 32,742 30,890 -6% Silver Bow County MT Butte-Silver Bow 51 Small Regional Trade Center Core County 0 3 34,978 32,982 -6% Hot Springs County WY Thermopolis 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 0 4,828 4,537 -6% Rio Blanco County CO Meeker 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 6,380 5,973 -6% Wallowa County OR Enterprise 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 7,504 7,014 -7% Clearwater County ID Orofino 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 8,982 8,373 -7% Shoshone County ID Kellogg 12b Major Metro Core (250K-500K) Closely Linked County 0 3 14,125 13,157 -7% Jackson County CO Walden 22 2nd Tier Metro Region Closely Linked County 3 3 1,555 1,448 -7% Butte County ID Arco 42 Large Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 3,017 2,808 -7% Custer County ID Challis 62b Small Isolated Rural County 0 3 4,409 4,077 -8% Moderately Fast-Declining Mountain Counties (0 to -10% growth between 1995 and 2005) Deer Lodge County MT Anaconda-Deer Lodge 52 Small Regional Trade Center Closely Linked County 0 3 10,070 8,948 -11% All Mountain Counties (143 total counties) [1/READ codes by CRMW, 2/ Counties nearby national parks, 3/ Counties nearby For. Serv. lands.] 7,172,361 8,478,953 18% Source: Assembled and sorted by Larry Swanson, O'Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West, U. of Montana, 2006, using Census Bureau population data.

YBP – Swanson – p. 16 YBP – Swanson – p. 17 Primary Cities and Population Centers of the Source: U.S. Census Bureau, incorporated place populations

Yellowstone Region The economies of most sub-state regions are organized around major

The 25-county Yellowstone Region has four major cities classified as cities. Where there are no major cities in more sparsely populated and isolated areas, this isn’t the case. Major cities serve as regional centers for “regional population centers” under the READ system (O’Connor employment, education, health care, retail and services trade, and Center’s Regional Economies Assessment Database system). entertainment. Because of this, they tend to have a larger array of trade These include Billings, Idaho Falls, Pocatello, and Bozeman. and business functions and activities than smaller places. As the Incorporated area populations of these and other cities in the region population and business activity are tending to spread away from major are shown below: metropolitan areas with changes in the economy, this is favoring growth in many middle-size and smaller cities, like many of those in the Yellowstone City name and County 2000 Pop 2005 Region – particularly ones with populations of 10,000 people or more. Pop Major Cities Greater Than 30,000 The Yellowstone Region’s four major regional centers – Billings, Billings (Yellowstone, MT) 89,847 98,721 Pocatello, Idaho Falls, and Bozeman – are all seeing population Pocatello (Bannock, ID) 51,466 53,372 growth in recent years, both within their incorporated areas and in Idaho Falls (Bonneville, ID) 50,730 52,338 surrounding areas. Billings is the largest of these regional centers by Bozeman (Gallatin, MT) 27,509 33,535 far with nearly 99,000 residents in 2005. Next are Pocatello and Other Cities Great Than 10,000 Idaho Falls, each with populations of about 53,000 people within Rexburg (Madison, ID) 17,257 26,265 Ammon (Bonneville, ID) 6,187 10,925 their incorporated areas and many more just outside of these Blackfoot (Bingham, ID) 10,419 10,828 boundaries. Ammon, on the edge of Idaho Falls, has grown to Chubbuck (Bannock, ID) 9,700 10,707 nearly 11,000 people and Chubbuck, on the edge of Pocatello, has Large Towns, 5,000 to 10,000 grown to 10,700. Bozeman has become very fast-growing, Riverton (Fremont, WY) 9,310 9,430 increasing from 27,500 people in 2000 to 33,500 in 2005 and Cody (Park, WY) 8,835 9,100 Belgrade, which lies adjacent to Bozeman, has grown to over 7,000 Jackson (Teton, WY) 8,647 9,038 people. Rexburg is probably the single fastest growing city in the Livingston (Park, MT) 6,851 7,146 region, growing from just over 17,000 persons in 2000 to more than Belgrade (Gallatin, MT) 5,728 7,033 26,000 in 2005. Lander (Fremont, WY) 6,867 6,898 Laurel (Yellowstone, MT) 6,255 6,342 Powell (Park, WY) 5,373 5,288 Virtually all of the region’s cities between 5,000 and 10,000 Preston (Franklin, ID) 4,682 5,019 populations are growing cities. And most of the region’s smaller Other Towns of 2,000 to 5,000 cities, between 2,000 and 5,000, are seeing growth, with the Shelley (Bingham, ID) 3,813 4,131 exceptions of Soda Springs and Montpelier in the region’s Dillon (Beaverhead, MT) 3,752 3,988 southernmost sub-area and Thermopolis in Wyoming. St. Anthony (Fremont, ID) 3,342 3,348 Soda Springs (Caribou, ID) 3,381 3,256 Sub-regional areas throughout the western U.S. have been Rigby (Jefferson, ID) 2,998 3,245 regionalized using a systematic methodology under the Regional Thermopolis (Hot Springs, WY) 3,172 2,905 Economies Assessment Database system (READ) developed and Montpelier (Bear Lake, ID) 2,785 2,507 maintained by the O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West at Red Lodge (Carbon, MT) 2,177 2,401 the University of Montana.

YBP – Swanson – p. 18 Urban-Rural Characteristics of the 25-County The Region also has two “large regional trade centers” or population Yellowstone Region centers of 30,000 persons or more with county-wide totals of 60,000 to 100,000, shown in dark green – Idaho Falls and Pocatello. And

there is one “small regional trade center,” which have county-wide The map shows how the Yellowstone Region and counties within it populations of 30,000 to 60,000 – Bozeman, with Gallatin County are classified under the READ county classification system. The shown in dark yellow. Fifteen of the region’s counties are “closely- region has four regional population centers with the largest, Billings linked” to these regional centers and 6 are considered “isolated and and Yellowstone County, classified as a “3rd Tier metro core.” These rural.” The chart below shows the region’s population for counties are counties with cities greater than 30,000 population that also have within these three READ classifications. county-wide populations of 100,000 to 160,000 people. In the rd READ map, these 3 Tier centers are shown in dark blue. Counties Population in the Yellowstone Region by County Type closely linked to Billings are shown in light blue. This linkage is 450,000 solely based on proximity in the mapping system. 400,000 384,912 355,270 Reg. 350,000 Centers 302,115 (4) 300,000 282,301 R.C. 250,000 Fringe 196,706 (15) 200,000 185,344 153,509 161,962 Iso. 150,000 105,216 109,649 Rural 92,421 90,289 (6) 100,000

50,000

0 '80 '90 '00 '05 Source: Swanson, 2007 (using U.S. Census Bureau data and READ system county classification codes)

In 2005, of the total region-wide population of over 691,000 residents, 56 percent or 385,000 lived within the region’s four regional center counties. This percentage is up slightly from 53 percent in 1980. About 28 percent of the region’s residents live in the 15 counties closely-linked to these regional centers, about the same percentage as in 1980. The remainder live in the region’s six counties classified as isolated rural ones – 15.9 percent of the region’s total population in 2005, down from 17.5 percent in 1980.

So, it appears that as the region is growing in population, much of

Source: Regional Economies Assessment Database, Swanson, O’Connor Center for the the growth appears to be centering around its major cities. Rocky Mountain West, The University of Montana

YBP – Swanson – p. 19 Urban vs. Rural Dimensions of the Yellowstone Growth by Net Migration Only in the Yellowstone Region Region’s Population Growth 30,000 25,088 24,000 The chart below shows population growth by period for 1980-90, Reg. 18 , 0 0 0 1990-2000 and 2000-05. 14,341 Centers (4) 12 , 0 0 0 9,905 Total Pop. Growth by Period in the Yellowstone Region 8,580 R.C. by County Type Fringe 60,000 6,000 2,816 2,671 (15) 53,155 0 Is o. 50,000 '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 Rural (6) -6,000 Reg. 40,000 Centers -12,000 (4) -11,676 29,642 -13,435 30,000 R.C. -18,000 -15,430 23,382 Fringe Source: Swanson, 2007 (using U.S. Census Bureau data and deriving 19,814 (15) net migration from data on total pop, births, and deaths) 20,000 14,927 Iso. 11,362 Rural 8,453 All three county groupings had negative net migration in the ‘80s - 10,000 (6) 4,433 more people moving away than the number moving to them, considering only persons changing permanent residences in the 0 process. Overall population growth that did occur in the region in the '80-'90-2,132 '90-'00 '00-'05 ‘80s resulted entirely from more births than deaths, or what is -10,000 Source: Swanson, 2007 referred to as “natural change.” In the ‘90s, net migration accounted for half of growth in the regional centers, less than 40 percent in their For all three county types, population growth in the ‘90s was fringe counties, and 66 percent in the isolated rural counties. substantially greater than growth in the ‘80s. And it can be seen that Percentage growth by area type for recent periods is shown below. strong growth is continuing since 2000. In fact, if the pace set for the five-year period from 2000 to 2005 is maintained, the combined Percent Growth by Period by County Type 20% 18% population of the four regional center counties will grow by nearly 17% 16% Reg. 60,000 people over the decade (2000-2010). This would exceed the 14% 15% Centers relatively high growth of the ‘90s for these counties when they grew (4) by a combined 53,000 people. Growth in the 15 closely-linked fringe R.C. 10% 8% Fringe counties of these regional centers increased substantially in the ‘90s, 7% 7% (15) 6% 6% 5% Iso. with growth of over 23,000 people versus 8,400 in the ‘80s. The 4% pace of growth for since 2000 roughly matches the pace set in the 5% Rural (6) ‘90s for these counties. Growth in the six isolated rural counties Region- went from negative levels in the ‘80s to positive ones, with combined 0% wide '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 growth in the ‘90s of nearly 15,000 people. The more recent pace of -2% growth is more moderate, but continuing for these counties. -5%

YBP – Swanson – p. 20 Sub-Regional Areas of the Larger Yellowstone Region

The READ county classification system uses a detailed methodology for generally identifying sub- state, city-centered economies throughout the western U.S. It provides a useful first-cut in identifying how the region operates sub-regionally and within sub-areas. However, some adjustments based upon place-specific factors are necessary in more accurately identifying how the 25-county Yellowstone Region operates and functions sub-regionally.

The map at the right shows how the region is compartmentalized by meaningful sub-area. There are six sub-areas, with four of these extending away from the region’s four regional population centers – the Billings 5-county sub-area including Yellowstone, Sweet Grass, Stillwater, Carbon, and Park Co., Wy; the Bozeman 4-county sub-area including Gallatin, Park, Madison, and Beaverhead Counties; the Idaho Falls sub-area including Bonneville, Madison, Jefferson, Fremont, and Clark Counties; the Pocatello sub-area including Bannock, Bingham, Caribou, Bear Lake, and Franklin Counties; the Jackson sub-area including Teton, WY, Teton, ID, Lincoln, and Sublette Counties; and the Riverton/Lander sub-area including

Fremont and Hot Springs Counties.

Although Jackson and Teton County, Wyoming, have small permanent populations, the area is a gravity point in the region for travel, tourism, and recreation activities and activities tied to visitation to the national At the Center of the region lie Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks. These parks and ski and resort area. Jackson also serves parks both serve as defining centerpieces of the larger region and dividers of many as a regional employment center, much as the area’s the region’s sub-areas. During the open season of the parks from spring through much larger regional population centers. Fremont fall, the parks are major pass-through points for intra-regional traffic. But during the and Hot Springs Counties in the region’s southeast off season when such passage is constraint, traffic moves around the parks and is corner are relatively isolated. more circuitous.

YBP – Swanson – p. 21 Overall Population Growth in the 25- Total Population Levels Region-wide: 25-County Yellowstone Region County Region 800,000

691,267 The overall population of the entire 25-county region 700,000 has been experiencing population growth for most of 616,683 the last 15 years, after a brief decline in population 600,000 563,832 552,331 531,332 from the mid- to the late-80s. The region’s population grew from less than 470,000 people in the mid-70s to 500,000 468,588 over 531,000 in 1980 – relatively rapid growth. 400,000 However, growth slowed in the early ‘80s before slipping into negative change in 1986, 1987, and 300,000 1988. This period in the ‘80s was a difficult one for the larger region economically, with declines and 200,000 slumps occurring in virtually all of the region’s longstanding natural resource industries. The oil and 100,000 gas industry “boom” of the early ‘80s busted in the mid-80s as oil prices plummeted. And the ag sector 0 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 experienced a “farm and ranch financial crisis” in the '7 '7 '7 '7 '7 '7 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '9 '91 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 mid-80s. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July 1 estimates

Area population growth returned in the early ‘90s, Year-by-Year Region-wide Population Change: Yellowstone Region coinciding with the larger regional pattern of growth 20,000 that resulted from the sea change in migration 16,883 patterns previously noted. And this larger sea change 16,000 14,284 in population migration resulted from a downturn in the California economy in the early ‘90s and 12,000 10,703 fundamental changes in the economy, making people, 8,000 businesses, and jobs increasingly more “footloose” in 5,401 terms of location. 4,000 This translated into a spurt in population growth in the 0 early ‘90s, peaking in 1992 – again, at a time when 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 '7 '7 '7 '7 '7 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '9 '9 '92 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 the California economy was “tanking” and as -4,000 California’s economy began to recover in the mid-90s, the strength of migration into the Interior West -8,000 -6,799 diminished. Population growth slowed, but in more recent years is beginning to rise again and has done Region-wide growth in 1992 was 2.5 percent for the year. The annual growth rate so in each of the last four years through 2005. more recently has been at 1.3 to 1.6 percent, but may be rising.

YBP – Swanson – p. 22 Yellowstone Region Population Growth Total Populations Overtime in the Yellowstone Region by Sub-Area by Sub-Area 200,000 185,422 176,494 180,000 The distribution of Yellowstone Region population by Billings Sub- 157,596 area (5) major sub-area is shown in the upper chart. The most 160,000 154,367 146,587 147,572 142,344 populated sub-area is the one with the most 141,985 Bozeman Sub- populated single county, Yellowstone County in 140,000 area (4) 126,431 124,123125,888 Montana. The Billings 5-county sub-area population 120,000 112,375 110,225 Idaho Falls Sub- totaled more than 185,000 in 2005, up from 176,500 99,578 area (5) in 2000, which was up from 154,400 in 1990. The 100,000 Idaho Falls 5-county area is the second most 79,438 Pocatello Sub- 80,000 area (5) populated with almost 158,000 people in 2005, up 69,159 Jackson Sub- from 142,000 in 2000. Closely behind is the Pocatello 60,000 49,424 44,702 44,743 area (4) 5-county sub-area with almost 148,000 residents in 38,471 40,686 41,028 40,000 32,079 2005, up from 142,000 in 2000. The Bozeman 4- 28,977 Riverton/Lander (2) county sub-area is next with 110,000 residents. The 20,000 other two sub-areas have much smaller populations, but it must be kept in mind that these figures include 0 only “permanent residents.” For the Jackson sub- '80 '90 '00 '05 Source: Swanson, 2007 (using U.S. Census Bureau data) area in particular, this excludes a fairly large number of part-time residents. Percent Pop. Change by Period: Yellowstone Sub-areas 48% The lower chart shows percentage growth for these 39% recent periods, clearly showing the greatly increased 40% Billings Sub- growth rates of the ‘90s for all of the sub-areas versus area (5) those in the ‘80s. The Jackson sub-area had the 32% Bozeman fastest growth at nearly 40 percent. Next is the 25% Sub-area (4) Bozeman sub-area with growth of over 25 percent in 24% Idaho Falls the ‘90s. Growth since 2000 is proceeding at 16% Sub-area (5) 15% 14% 14% 16% 13% relatively fast rates in the Bozeman, Idaho Falls, and 10% 11% 11%11% 10% Pocatello Sub- Jackson sub-areas. Growth has slowed a bit in the 7% area (5) 8% 5% 5% 6% 5% Billings and Pocatello sub-areas. And there was very 4% 1% Teton Sub- little growth in the Riverton/Lander sub-area since 0% area (4) 2000. Region-wide growth of 16.5 percent in the ‘90s '80-'900% '90-'00 '00-'05 Fremont-Hot is at 7.0 percent for the 5-year period since 2000 and, -8% Springs (2) at this pace, will be only moderately slower than in the Region-wide ‘90s. -16% -14% Source: Swanson, 2007 (using U.S. Census Bureau data)

YBP – Swanson – p. 23 Influence of Net Migration on Area Total Population Growth by Period: Yellowstone Sub-Areas Population Growth 25,000 22,127 Billings Sub- 20,140 The role that net migration is playing in area growth is area (5) 20,000 17,862 examined by comparing total population by sub-area 16,456 15,611 Bozeman Sub- area (4) to population change by net migration only. Net 15,000 12,664 migration considers growth resulting from people 11,748 10,647 Idaho Falls moving to and away from the region. The upper chart 10,279 10,000 8,928 Sub-area (5) shows changes by sub-area for recent periods and 7,780 the lower chart shows net migration by sub-area for 5,2284,681 Pocatello Sub- 5,000 3,102 area (5) these same periods. Net migration is calculated or 2,215 derived from U.S. Census Bureau data by subtracting 342 Jackson Sub- data on the total number of births and deaths by 0 area (4) -543 period, which translate into “natural change”, and '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'05 -5,000 Riverton/Lander subtracting growth by natural change from total (2) population change. The residual in population change -6,231 is attributed to net migration. -10,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau data

For all of the region’s sub-areas, net migration levels are substantially higher in the ‘90s than in the ‘80s. Population Growth by Net Migration only: Yellowstone Sub-areas And for most, this net migration is continuing in since 20,000 15,078 2000. However, net migration is a much different 14,232 Billings Sub- 15,000 area (5) factor in area population growth from one sub-area to 9,534 the next. It is the greatest factor in population in the 10,000 7,863 Bozeman 5,731 5,988 Sub-area (4) Bozeman and Jackson sub-areas, accounting for 75 4,059 5,000 2,487 2,821 percent of all population growth in the ‘90s for each of 1,665 Idaho Falls 576 -2 Sub-area (5) these sub-areas. Since 2000 net migration accounted 0 for 75 percent of Bozeman growth and 60 percent of Pocatello '80-'90-1,618 '90-'00 '00-'05 Jackson growth. Net migration accounted for 64 -5,000 -2,573 Sub-area (5) -5,460 percent of the Billings sub-area growth in the ‘90s and Jackson -7,573 64 percent of its growth since 2000. -10,000 Sub-area (4) -10,936 -15,000 Riverton/Lan However, net migration accounted for only 9 percent der (2) -20,000 of the Idaho Falls sub-area total population growth in -19,013 the ‘90s, although this rose to 38 percent since 2000. Swanson, 2007 (using U.S. Census Bureau data)

In the Pocatello sub-area net migration accounted for In the Yellowstone sub-areas in Idaho, natural change has been a greater factor in only 15 percent of total growth in the ‘90s and this has growth, probably due to the larger and younger Mormon families in those areas. slipped into net out-migration since 2000.

YBP – Swanson – p. 24 Population Growth by Component by Sub-Area, Recent Pop Change by Component: Idaho Falls Sub-area 1990 through 2005 40,000

33,473 Population change, either positive or negative, occurs in two ways – 35,000 through natural change or the net of births and deaths, and net 30,000 migration or the number of persons moving to an area versus the 25,820 Total number moving away. The charts examine the relative importance 25,000 Chg. of each component in an area’s population change since 1990. 19,649 20,000 Nat. Chg. 14,103 Recent Population Change by Component: Billings Sub- 15,000 35,000 area 31,055 Net. 10,000 7,301 7,653 Migr. 6,032 30,000 5,547 5,037 5,000 3,682 1,269 1,355 1,305 25,000 23,272 181 Total 0 19,963 20,000 Chg. Bonneville, ID Madison, ID Jefferson, ID Fremont, ID Clark, ID Idaho Falls Sub-area -5,000 Nat. Source: Swanson, using Census Bureau data 15,000 13,364 Chg. 11,092 9,908 Population growth in the Bozeman sub-area, like the Billings sub- 10,000 Net. Migr. area, was driven primarily by net migration, with net migration 3,486 accounting for almost 75 percent of total population growth. 5,000 2,488 1,822 1,884 1,957 1,655 998 302 518 573 0 Recent Pop Change by Component: Bozeman Sub-area Yellowstone, Park, WY Carbo-62n, MT Stillwater, Sweet-55 Grass, Billings Sub- 35,000 MT MT MT area 30,787 -5,000 30,000 Source: Swanson, using Census Burea data 27,747

In the Billings 5-county area, the total population grew by 31,055 25,000 22,941 Total 20,625 between 1990 and 2005 – this recent period of increased growth. Chg. Net migration accounted for 19,963 of this growth (64% of growth). 20,000 And natural change – more births than deaths – accounted for 15,000 Nat. 11,052 of this growth (the remaining 36% of growth). Net migration Chg. was the dominant factor in growth in all five of this sub-area’s 10,000 7,846 counties. 7,123 Net. Migr. 5,000 1,406 806 1,285 1,425 Population growth in the Idaho Falls sub-area was primarily a result 600 349263 86 of natural change rather than net migration, as shown in the upper 0 Gallatin, MT Park, MT Beaverhead, Madison,-140 MT Bozeman right chart. This sub-area of the region grew by 33,473 people MT Sub-area between 1990 and 2005, with 25,820 of this growth resulting from -5,000 Source: Swanson, using Census Bureau data more births than deaths (77% of growth).

YBP – Swanson – p. 25 Population Growth by Component in Other Sub- Recent Pop Change by Comp: Riverton/Lander Sub-area Areas of the Yellowstone Region 3,000 2,829 2,557 2,500 2,335 The charts below show change since 1990 in the Pocatello and 1,983 Jackson sub-areas. Pocatello area growth is by natural change, 2,000 Total while net migration drives change in the Jackson area. Chg. 1,500 Nat. Recent Pop Change by Component: Pocatello Sub-area 1,000 Chg. 25,000 574 495 Net. 21,684 500 80 Migr. 20,000 Total 0 Chg. Fremont, WY Hot Springs, WY Riverton/Lander Sub-area 15,000 -500 -272 -352 12,129 Source: Swanson, using Census Bureau data Nat. 10,000 Chg. The chart below then rank-orders the counties by the share of growth 6,798 6,156 Net. accounted for by net migration. 5,000 3,139 Migr . 1,6891,450 Net Migr. Share of Total Pop Change: Yellowstone, 1990-2005 702 168 92 -107 -86 Madison, MT 111% 0 Sweet Grass, MT Bannock, ID Bingham, ID Franklin, ID Caribou, ID Bear Lake, ID Pocatello Sub- Carbon, MT 103% area Stillwater, MT -5,000 Sublette, WY 84% Source: Swanson, using Census Bureau data Teton, WY Gallatin, MT 74% Park, WY Recent Pop Change by Component: Jackson Sub-area Teton, ID 20,000 Yellowstone, MT 57% Park, MT 18,000 17,345 Lincoln, WY 16,000 25-co. region 46% Franklin, ID 14,000 Total Bonneville, ID 28% 12,355 Chg. Jefferson, ID 12,000 Beaverhead, MT 10,000 Nat. Fremont, ID 7,860 Chg. Madison, ID 8,000 Clark, ID 5,886 Bannock-1%, ID 6,000 4,990 Net. Bingham, ID 4,028 Migr. 3,374 Hot Springs, WY 4,000 2,841 Fremont, ID 1,974 2,083 1,4991,875 1,753 2,000 1,187 Bear Lake, ID 330 Caribou, ID 0 Teton, WY Lincoln, WY Teton, ID Sublette, WY Jackson Sub- -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Source: Swanson, 2007 Source: Swanson, using Census Bureau data area

YBP – Swanson – p. 26 Population Levels Overtime for Counties in the 25-County Yellowstone Region Source: U.S. Census July 1 estimates Projected using most recent 4-yr. average growth rate '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 4-yr. Ave. '10 '15 '05-'15 Yellowstone, MT (Billings) 98,952 108,576 119,310 113,557 125,373 129,570 136,691 1.2% 144,745 153,274 16,583 12% Stillwater, MT 5,067 5,625 5,928 6,573 7,336 8,224 8,493 0.3% 8,642 8,794 301 4% Carbon, MT 7,794 8,119 8,627 8,077 8,953 9,556 9,902 0.6% 10,211 10,530 628 6% Sweet Grass, MT 2,957 3,224 3,230 3,146 3,310 3,635 3,672 0.5% 3,757 3,845 173 5% Park Co., WY 18,908 21,783 24,260 23,190 25,481 25,814 26,664 0.8% 27,799 28,983 2,319 9% Gallatin, MT (Bozeman) 37,902 43,120 48,994 50,811 60,644 68,276 78,210 2.9% 90,178 103,977 25,767 33% Park, MT 12,044 13,056 14,072 14,643 15,724 15,726 15,968 0.4% 16,277 16,593 625 4% Madison, MT 5,583 5,501 5,877 5,994 6,643 6,872 7,274 1.3% 7,774 8,308 1,034 14% Beaverhead, MT 7,974 8,240 8,497 8,429 9,168 9,198 8,773 -0.8% 8,409 8,059 -714 -8% Bonneville, ID (Idaho Falls) 58,965 66,219 68,630 72,608 79,527 82,897 91,856 2.3% 102,961 115,409 23,553 26% Madison, ID 17,261 19,661 22,187 23,823 26,102 27,421 30,975 3.2% 36,180 42,259 11,284 36% Jefferson, ID 13,201 15,385 16,230 16,589 18,245 19,228 21,580 2.8% 24,739 28,360 6,780 31% Fremont, ID 9,975 10,862 10,856 10,939 11,557 11,792 12,242 0.9% 12,774 13,329 1,087 9% Clark, ID 901 798 801 760 866 1,027 943 -0.7% 910 878 -65 -7% Bannock, ID (Pocatello) 57,076 65,650 67,051 66,258 73,603 75,593 78,155 0.5% 80,208 82,315 4,160 5% Bingham, ID 32,112 36,626 38,290 37,603 40,648 41,812 43,739 0.9% 45,673 47,692 3,953 9% Caribou, ID 7,769 8,718 8,314 6,958 7,290 7,309 7,131 -0.9% 6,824 6,530 -601 -8% Franklin, ID 7,930 8,961 9,539 9,259 10,192 11,364 12,371 1.9% 13,558 14,860 2,489 20% Bear Lake, ID 6,235 6,973 6,896 6,082 6,459 6,425 6,176 -1.0% 5,883 5,603 -573 -9% Teton, WY (Jackson) 7,120 9,491 10,127 11,328 14,907 18,358 19,032 0.7% 19,723 20,438 1,406 7% Teton, ID 2,570 2,929 3,392 3,458 4,820 6,108 7,467 3.8% 8,995 10,835 3,368 45% Sublette, WY 3,927 4,615 5,516 4,883 5,515 5,952 6,926 3.9% 8,401 10,190 3,264 47% Lincoln, WY 9,835 12,397 14,320 12,710 14,073 14,639 15,999 2.1% 17,732 19,653 3,654 23% Fremont, WY 31,603 39,071 36,996 33,565 35,419 35,842 36,491 0.5% 37,393 38,316 1,825 5% Hot Springs, WY 4,927 5,732 5,892 4,786 4,828 4,865 4,537 -1.3% 4,260 4,000 -537 -12% Regionwide 468,588 531,332 563,832 556,029 616,683 647,503 691,267 1.4% 744,005 803,030 111,763 16%

Major Sub-Areas '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '05-'15 Yellowstone, MT (Billings) 98,952 108,576 119,310 113,557 125,373 129,570 136,691 144,745 153,274 16,583 12% Linked & Nearby Cos. 34,726 38,751 42,045 40,986 45,080 47,229 48,731 50,410 52,151 3,420 7% Gallatin, MT (Bozeman) 37,902 43,120 48,994 50,811 60,644 68,276 78,210 90,178 103,977 25,767 33% Linked & Nearby Cos. 25,601 26,797 28,446 29,066 31,535 31,796 32,015 32,460 32,960 945 3% Bonneville, ID (Idaho Falls) 58,965 66,219 68,630 72,608 79,527 82,897 91,856 102,961 115,409 23,553 26% Linked & Nearby Cos. 41,338 46,706 50,074 52,111 56,770 59,468 65,740 74,603 84,827 19,087 29% Bannock, ID (Pocatello) 57,076 65,650 67,051 66,258 73,603 75,593 78,155 80,208 82,315 4,160 5% Linked & Nearby Cos. 54,046 61,278 63,039 59,902 64,589 66,910 69,417 71,937 74,685 5,268 8% Jackson 4-County Area 23,452 29,432 33,355 32,379 39,315 45,057 49,424 54,850 61,116 11,692 24% Riverton/Landers 2-county 36,530 44,803 42,888 38,351 40,247 40,707 41,028 41,653 42,316 1,288 3% Regionwide 468,588 531,332 563,832 556,029 616,683 647,503 691,267 744,005 803,030 111,763 16%

YBP – Swanson – p. 27 Population and Housing Units for Counties in the 25-County Yellowstone Region Source: Swanson using U.S. Census data Total Population Projected @ recent 4-yr. average growth rate Housing Units Projected using pop-to-housing estimates '80 '90 '00 '05 '10 '15 '80 '90 '00 '05 '10 '15 Yellowstone, MT (Billings) 108,035 113,419 129,352 136,691 144,745 153,274 42,756 48,781 54,563 57,740 62,933 69,670 Stillwater, MT 5,598 6,536 8,195 8,493 8,642 8,794 2,681 3,291 3,947 4,028 4,115 4,188 Carbon, MT 8,099 8,080 9,552 9,902 10,211 10,530 4,360 4,828 5,494 5,650 5,835 6,017 Sweet Grass, MT 3,216 3,154 3,609 3,672 3,757 3,845 1,479 1,639 1,860 1,907 1,947 2,024 Park Co., WY 21,639 23,178 25,786 26,664 27,799 28,983 8,774 10,306 11,869 12,684 13,365 14,138 Gallatin, MT (Bozeman) 42,865 50,463 67,831 78,210 90,178 103,977 17,173 21,350 29,489 34,097 39,208 45,207 Park, MT 12,660 14,562 15,694 15,968 16,277 16,593 5,966 6,929 8,247 8,387 8,658 8,969 Madison, MT 5,448 5,989 6,851 7,274 7,774 8,308 2,741 3,902 4,671 4,734 5,016 5,360 Beaverhead, MT 8,186 8,424 9,202 8,773 8,409 8,059 3,741 4,128 4,571 4,615 4,545 4,356 Bonneville, ID (Idaho Falls) 65,980 72,207 82,522 91,856 102,961 115,409 23,492 26,049 30,484 34,663 39,298 44,388 Madison, ID 19,480 23,674 27,467 30,975 36,180 42,259 5,537 6,133 7,630 10,412 12,264 14,572 Jefferson, ID 15,304 16,543 19,155 21,580 24,739 28,360 4,994 5,353 6,287 7,189 8,246 9,453 Fremont, ID 10,813 10,937 11,819 12,242 12,774 13,329 5,376 5,961 6,890 7,490 7,984 8,331 Clark, ID 798 762 1,022 943 910 878 445 502 521 542 529 516 Bannock, ID (Pocatello) 65,421 66,026 75,565 78,155 80,208 82,315 24,819 25,694 29,102 30,635 31,829 32,926 Bingham, ID 36,489 37,583 41,735 43,739 45,673 47,692 12,084 12,664 14,303 15,024 15,749 16,734 Caribou, ID 8,695 6,963 7,304 7,131 6,824 6,530 3,105 2,867 3,188 3,245 3,130 3,037 Franklin, ID 8,895 9,232 11,329 12,371 13,558 14,860 3,047 3,240 3,872 4,215 4,643 5,124 Bear Lake, ID 6,931 6,084 6,411 6,176 5,883 5,603 2,792 2,934 3,268 3,581 3,460 3,296 Teton, WY (Jackson) 9,355 11,172 18,251 19,032 19,723 20,438 4,894 7,060 10,267 11,597 12,174 12,774 Teton, ID 2,897 3,439 5,999 7,467 8,995 10,835 1,245 1,645 2,632 3,697 4,453 5,417 Sublette, WY 4,548 4,843 5,920 6,926 8,401 10,190 2,393 2,911 3,552 3,944 4,801 5,823 Lincoln, WY 12,177 12,625 14,573 15,999 17,732 19,653 4,671 5,409 6,831 7,763 8,692 9,826 Fremont, WY 38,992 33,662 35,804 36,491 37,393 38,316 14,570 14,437 15,541 16,150 16,693 17,416 Hot Springs, WY 5,710 4,809 4,882 4,537 4,260 4,000 2,537 2,429 2,536 2,572 2,506 2,353 Regionwide 528,231 554,366 645,830 691,267 744,005 803,030 205,672 230,442 271,615 296,561 322,073 351,917

Major Sub-Areas '80 '90 '00 '05 '10 '15 '80 '90 '00 '05 '10 '15 Yellowstone, MT (Billings) 108,035 113,419 129,352 136,691 144,745 153,274 42,756 48,781 54,563 57,740 62,933 69,670 Linked & Nearby Cos. 38,552 40,948 47,142 48,731 50,410 52,151 17,294 20,064 23,170 24,269 25,262 26,366 Gallatin, MT (Bozeman) 42,865 50,463 67,831 78,210 90,178 103,977 17,173 21,350 29,489 34,097 39,208 45,207 Linked & Nearby Cos. 26,294 28,975 31,747 32,015 32,460 32,960 12,448 14,959 17,489 17,736 18,219 18,686 Bonneville, ID (Idaho Falls) 65,980 72,207 82,522 91,856 102,961 115,409 23,492 26,049 30,484 34,663 39,298 44,388 Linked & Nearby Cos. 46,395 51,916 59,463 65,740 74,603 84,827 16,352 17,949 21,328 25,633 29,023 32,873 Bannock, ID (Pocatello) 65,421 66,026 75,565 78,155 80,208 82,315 24,819 25,694 29,102 30,635 31,829 32,926 Linked & Nearby Cos. 61,010 59,862 66,779 69,417 71,937 74,685 21,028 21,705 24,631 26,065 26,983 28,191 Jackson 4-County Area 28,977 32,079 44,743 49,424 54,850 61,116 13,203 17,025 23,282 27,001 30,120 33,841 Riverton/Landers 2-county 44,702 38,471 40,686 41,028 41,653 42,316 17,107 16,866 18,077 18,722 19,199 19,769 Regionwide 528,231 554,366 645,830 691,267 744,005 803,030 205,672 230,442 271,615 296,561 322,073 351,917

YBP – Swanson – p. 28 Current and Projected Population and Housing Units in the Yellowstone Sub-Areas Housing Numbers in the 160,000 153,274 Yellowstone Region 140,000 In 2005 there were 297,000 120,000 115,409 housing units in the 25-county 103,977 region - up from 272,000 in 2000 100,000 '80 84,827 and 230,000 in 1990. Using 82,315 '90 population projections based upon 80,000 74,685 '00 69,670 the last four years of growth by 61,116 '05 individual counties and past ratios 60,000 52,151 '10 45,207 44,388 of population-to-housing units for 42,316 '15 40,000 32,960 32,873 32,926 33,841 each county, estimates have been 26,366 28,191 made of future housing in the 18,686 19,769 20,000 region. It is estimated that by 2015 the total number of housing units in 0

a s a a s a s s . T e T e e e e D e e e b the region will equal about 352,000 ses r ses s r ses , ID ses r s I ses r s s u ses M u u M u e u u area u o g A o n, ou g A o ill o g A ou o g A ou b- ou o ne, H H ti H H v H H H H u H er S H to in la in in nock, in d – an increase of over 55,000 units s d al d d d w nne an o G o B Lan l oun oun B oun oun el r r r r on/ Y ur ur ur ur ackson S and 19 percent from 2005 levels. S S S S J ert Source: Swanson, using Census Bureau data iv R This increase would be focused in three of the regional center Past & Projected Ratios: Population-to-Housing Units, Yellowstone Sub-Areas counties. The largest increase in 3.00 2.80 housing would occur in Yellowstone 2.65 2.60 2.58 '80 County, projected to increase by 2.60 2.50 almost 12,000 units from 2005 to '90 2.40 2.30 2.28 '00 2015. Next is growth in Gallatin at 2.20 over 11,000 additional units and 2.20 2.14 '05 1.98 '10 growth in Bonneville County with 2.00 1.81 '15 over 9,700 more units. In addition 1.76 to these, rural counties in the Idaho 1.80 Falls sub-area would add 7,000 1.60 units. The Jackson sub-area would 1.40 add over 6,800 housing units. Housing increased 9% region-wide 1.20 from 2000 to 2005, and would 1.00 Yellowstone, Linked & Gallatin, MT Linked & Bonneville, ID Linked & Bannock, ID Linked & Jackson areaRiverton/LanderRegionwide increase by + or – 9% in each of MT Nearby Cos. Nearby Cos. Nearby Cos. Nearby Cos. area the next two 5-year periods. Source: Swanson, using Census Bureau population and housing unit data

YBP – Swanson – p. 29 YBP – Swanson – p. 30 Shifting Age Compo- 25-County Region: Population by Single Age, 1990 vs. 2000 sition of the 25-County 14,000 Yellowstone Region’s Population 12,000

The top chart shows the 10,000 population of the 25-county region counted by single age in 1990 and 8,000 ten years later in 2000. During this period, population grew from 6,000 55,600 to 648,000 – an increase of almost 91,500 people and 16.5%. 4,000

The blue bars in the chart show 2,000 the number of people at each age in 1990 and the red bars show the 0 number in 2000. In comparing 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 these it can be seen that '<1 1 1 1 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 population growth in the region is Source: U.S. Census Bureau heavily concentrated among '90 '00 persons in their early 40s to early 60s – baby boomers, or persons born after WW II between 1947 Region-wide Population Change by Single Age: 1990 to 2000 5,000 and 1963. 4,000 The lower chart shows change in population only by single age. The 3,000 second largest age group where population growth is focused are 2,000 young persons in their teens and 1,000 twenties – the children of baby boomers or the boomer “echo” age 0 group. Population among persons '<12 4 6 8 1012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 in their 30s actually fell, as did the -1,000 number of young children. The young children population will -2,000 rebuild as persons 20 to 40 grow. -3,000

YBP – Swanson – p. 31 Median Age of the Region’s Population Yellowstone Region Counties by Median Age: Oldest-to-Youngest Overtime Hot Springs, WY 44.2 Madison, MT 43.4 The steady aging of the population Carbon, MT 41.9 in the Yellowstone Region is Sweet Grass, MT 41.2 40.8 further reflected in rising median Stillwater, MT age estimates for the region’s Park, MT 40.6 counties. The chart at the right Sublette, WY 39.8 shows the median age of the 39.8 population in 1979, 1989, and Park Co., WY 37.7 1999, as reflected in the most Fremont, WY 37.6 recent Censuses of the Beaverhead, MT Population. Counties are rank- Yellowstone, MT 37 ordered in the chart from highest- Lincoln, WY 36.8 '99 to-lowest median age. Bear Lake, ID 35.8 '89 35 Teton, WY '79 Hot Springs County in Wyoming Caribou, ID 35 and Madison County in Montana Fremont, ID 31.9 have the oldest populations with Bonnev ille, ID 31.8 median ages of 44 and 43, Teton, ID 31.3 respectively, in 1999. Madison Clark, ID 30.7 County in Idaho has the youngest Gallatin, MT 30.7 with a median age of 21. This Bannock, ID 29.8 very low median age reflects the 29.7 influence of Rick’s College and Bingham, ID 28.8 now BYU-Idaho in Rexburg and Jefferson, ID the growing population of young Franklin, ID 27.7 adults that make up that school’s Madison, ID 20.7 rapidly rising enrollment. 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 Source: U.S. Census Bureau For virtually all of the counties, median age is systematically rising, reflecting the aging of the More recent data on median age by county were compiled by the Census Bureau in its American population and more rapid growth Community Survey. However, these data were collected only for metropolitan and more populated among older residents, mainly in counties. Yellowstone County’s median age in 2005 is estimated at 39.2, up from 37 in 1999. Gallatin their 40s, 50s, and 60s. Median County’s median age rises from 31 to 33.8. And the median ages of both Bonneville and Bannock age will continue to rise. Counties remain fairly close to estimates in 1999.

YBP – Swanson – p. 32 Population Growth by 5- 25-County Region Population by Age: 1990, 2000 & 2005 by 5-Yr. Age Groups Year Age Groupings 70,000

Through 2005 61,907 60,000 57,889 The most recent data on 54,993 51,370 51,903 population by age comes from 49,916 50,055 50,000 2005 estimates by the U.S. Census Bureau. These estimates are for 5-year age groupings and 40,000 '90 are compared to population totals '00 in 1990 and 2000 by grouping the 30,000 Census age data into these same '05 5-year groupings. The region’s 20,000 population is concentrated among persons in their 40s and 50s 10,000 (boomers) and teens and 20s (echo). 0 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 15 to 20 to 25 to 30 to 35 to 40 to 45 to 50 to 55 to 60 to 65 to 70 to 75 to 80 to Between April 1, 2000, and July 1, 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 2005, the region’s population grew Source: U.S. Census Bureau by 45,400 people – a 7 percent increase. The fastest growth was Percent Population Growth by Age Group: 2000 - 2005 among persons 55 to 59, up by 42 50% percent. Persons 60 to 64 42.1% increased in number by 35 percent 40% and persons 50 to 54 grew by 32 34.9% percent. These large increases 31.6% represent growth in the baby boom 30% 23.3% population as it ages and suggest 21.8% 20.1% that population growth over the 20% 14.2% 13.8% course of the next five years will 12.6% be greatest among persons 10% 7.8% 6.0% between 55 and 69. Boomers, in 4.6% their late 30s and 40s during the 0.3% 90s, will be primarily in their 60s 0% 0 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 and 70s after 2010. -2.3% -1.3% -4.8% -5.1% -10%

YBP – Swanson – p. 33 Changing Age Features 5-State Rocky Mountain West Pop. by Single Age: 1990 vs. 2000 of the Rocky Mountain 175,000 West Population 150,000 The chart shows population counts by single ages for persons 125,000 under 1 year of age up to age 84 for the last two Censuses – 1990 100,000 and 2000. The figures in the chart combine state totals for the five Rocky Mountain states. 75,000

Population growth in the period 50,000 was concentrated among adults between their late 30s and late 25,000 50s – classic “baby boomers,” or persons born between 1946 and 0 1964. Growth also is focused 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 4 '>1 1 1 1 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 8 among young adults in their early e and mid- 20s and among older 1990 2000 Ag children and teen-age children. This latter population Rocky Mountain West Pop. Change by Single Age: '90-'00 concentration largely conforms 70,000 with children of baby boomers, or what is often referred to as the 60,000 baby boom “echo.” 50,000 In looking forward toward the 2010 Census, the large 40,000 population in their late 30s to late 30,000 50s, will shift to their late 40s to late 60s, moving steadily toward 20,000 retirement ages and continue shifting. And the younger 10,000 population concentrated in their late teens and early 20s will shift 0 2 4 6 8 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 to late 20s and early 30s. '>1 10 12 14 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 -10,000 e Ag

YBP – Swanson – p. 34 Age Shifts Impacts on Future Population Growth in Past and Projected Pops 65 & Older by Mountain States the Rocky Mountain West 30% 25.8% 26.5% It is extremely important to comprehend how imbalances in the age 25% distribution of the population will affect future population growth in the 19.7% region. Because much of the Rocky Mountain West’s population growth 20% 18.3% 18.6% '00 16.5% over the last 15 years was concentrated among persons in their 40s, '10 15% 13.2% 13.4% 50s, and early 60s, as this population continues to age, the population 12.4% '30 11.3% 11.7% 11.0% of the region as a whole will age. This will concentrate population 9.7% growth over the next 20 years among older residents. The populations 10% 8.5% of Wyoming and Montana will be two of the older ones among states. The chart below shows projections by the U.S. Census Bureau of 5% population change overtime among important age groupings for these two states. 0% Colorado Utah Idaho Montana Wyoming Nevada U.S. Projected Populations of Montana & Wyoming by Age Group Source: U.S. Census Bureau 450,000 The U.S. population as a whole is aging. But some states, like 408,144 400,000 Montana and Wyoming, are aging more rapidly than others. These aging trends heavily factor into expectations regarding future

350,000 0-17 growth in the region, with slowing growth projected for all of these Rocky Mountain states. 18-33 300,000 34-49 Projected Ten-Year Pop. Growth Rates: Mountain States 35% 250,000 50-64 31% 30% 28% 65+ Colorado 200,000 201,132 25% Utah 150,000 20% 17% Idaho 15% 100,000 15% 13%13% 13% 12% 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 U.S. '0 '0 '0 '1 '1 '1 '1 '1 '2 '2 '2 '2 '2 '3 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 9% 8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, March, 2005, projections 7% 5% 6% Montana 5% Between now and 2012, most growth in the two states will concentrate 2% 2% in two of these age groups: adults ages 50 to 64, and those 65 and Wyoming older. And after 2012, almost all growth will be by persons 65 and older. 0% '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30-2% This has tremendous implications for housing, health care, and work -5% force participation. It also will translate into falling birth rates, rising Source: U.S. Census Bureau (March, 2005, projections) death rates, and slowing population growth.

YBP – Swanson – p. 35 YBP – Swanson – p. 36 Total Personal Income Growth Total Personal Income Growth Region-wide: 25-County Yellowstone Region in the 25-County Region $20,000 $17,830 After relatively little growth during the $18,000 1980s, total personal income in the 25- $16,000 $15,491 county region has grown considerably through the ‘90s up until the present. $14,000

Total personal income grew a total of 16 $12,000 percent in the ‘80s, measured in inflation- $10,762 adjusted dollars, then grew by 44 percent $10,000 $9,292 in the ‘90s. And in only four years since $8,000 2000, income has grown by another 41 percent. This recent growth can be Millions of 2000 Dollars $6,000 considered very strong. $4,000 Personal income is all income actually $2,000 received in some form by all households in the region either as wages, salary $0 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 payments, or self-employment income or Source: BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce as investment earnings or as transfer payment income, which is primarily Year-to-Year Change in Personal Income income in the form of Social Security and $1,000 $941 Medicare/Medicaid payments. Income $837 reached $17.8 billion in 2004, measured in $830 $800 inflation-adjusted 2000 dollars. This is up from $15.5 billion in 2000 – a $2.3 billion $628 $600 $529 increase – which was up from $10.8 billion $488 in 1990 – a $4.7 billion increase. $400 $341 The lower chart shows year-to-year change in total personal income. After $200 back-to-back losses in 1986 and 1987, income growth has been strong and has Millions of 2000 Dollars $0 increased almost each year, with a few '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 exceptions. Small gains in 2002 and 2003 primarily resulted from decreases in -$200 investment income, most likely the result -$400 of stock market declines in those years.

YBP – Swanson – p. 37 Region-wide Growth in Income Personal Income Growth by Major Source (Mil. 2000$) by Major Source $14,000

Labor earnings are the region’s primary $12,000 source of personal income but their share $11,692 of total personal income has shrunk a bit $10,000 Labor over the years from over 72 percent of all $9,796 Earnings income in the early ‘80s to around 63 percent in 2000. More recently, with $8,000 Investmen t Income strong growth in labor earnings and some $7,065 $6,705 loses in investment income, labor earnings $6,000 Transfer accounted for 66 percent of income. Paymt Inc.

$4,000 The upper chart shows levels for all three $3,623 $3,594 major income sources over the last 25 $2,316 $2,545 years. Labor earnings have grown $2,000 $2,072 steadily from $7.1 billion in 1990 to $11.7 $1,381 billion in 2004. This was a 39 percent gain $0 in labor earnings in the ‘90s after only a 5 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 percent gain in the ‘80s. Between 2000 and 2004, labor earnings grew by $1.9 Personal Income Growth by Source billion and 19 percent, accounting for over $3,000 80 percent of all personal income growth $2,731 more recently. $2,500

The second largest source of income is $2,000 $1,896 Labor investment income, which grew from $2.3 Earnings billion and 22 percent of income in 1990 to $1,500 $1,307 $3.6 billion and 20 percent of income in Investment $1,000 Income 2004. Transfer payments are the third $637 $691 largest income source of the three, but $472 $473 Millions of 2000 Dollars $500 $360 Transfer they had the highest percentage increase Paymt Inc. since 2000 – up by $473 million and 44 $0 percent. Transfer payment income in the '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'04-$29 region will increase fairly rapidly as the -$500 population continues to age, as will investment income as retirees tap into Although investment income gains were high in the ‘90s, increasing by 56 percent, labor savings. The table on the next page earnings gains in both the ‘90s and more recently account for most income growth. shows income by source and sub-area.

YBP – Swanson – p. 38 Total Personal Income by Major Source by Yellowstone Region Sub-Area In millions of 2000 dollars Growth by Period Percent '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '04 '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'04 '00-'04 Billings 5-county subarea Labor Earnings $2,080.4 $2,123.7 $2,031.6 $2,392.3 $2,920.0 $3,473.2 -$48.8 -2% $888.4 44% $553.3 19% Investment Income $578.2 $811.6 $778.6 $862.9 $1,067.5 $998.6 $200.4 35% $288.9 37% -$68.9 16% Transfer Paymt Inc. $289.4 $381.2 $468.4 $565.1 $636.8 $748.1 $178.9 62% $168.4 36% $111.3 32% Total pers. Income $2,948.0 $3,316.4 $3,278.6 $3,820.2 $4,624.3 $5,220.0 $330.5 11% $1,345.7 41% $595.7 37% Bozeman 4-county subarea Labor Earnings $705.4 $768.2 $858.1 $1,138.5 $1,483.4 $1,920.0 $152.7 22% $625.3 73% $436.5 29% Investment Income $274.4 $366.7 $398.8 $459.9 $607.7 $636.6 $124.4 45% $208.9 52% $28.9 38% Transfer Paymt Inc. $125.9 $170.5 $208.9 $239.8 $272.1 $328.5 $83.1 66% $63.1 30% $56.5 37% Total pers. Income $1,105.7 $1,305.3 $1,465.9 $1,838.2 $2,363.2 $2,885.1 $360.2 33% $897.3 61% $521.9 57% Idaho Falls 5-county subarea Labor Earnings $1,352.8 $1,462.3 $1,687.5 $1,773.2 $2,023.8 $2,372.1 $334.6 25% $336.3 20% $348.4 17% Investment Income $276.0 $354.5 $378.6 $431.7 $507.7 $504.9 $102.6 37% $129.1 34% -$2.8 17% Transfer Paymt Inc. $157.5 $188.3 $235.4 $321.8 $407.2 $535.1 $77.9 49% $171.8 73% $127.9 66% Total pers. Income $1,786.3 $2,005.1 $2,301.5 $2,526.8 $2,938.6 $3,412.0 $515.2 29% $637.1 28% $473.4 35% Pocatello 5-county subarea Labor Earnings $1,491.8 $1,488.1 $1,537.3 $1,708.7 $1,952.5 $2,139.1 $45.5 3% $415.2 27% $186.6 10% Investment Income $261.0 $338.3 $324.5 $381.9 $446.8 $402.8 $63.6 24% $122.3 38% -$44.0 5% Transfer Paymt Inc. $222.3 $265.4 $292.3 $387.9 $452.7 $556.9 $70.0 31% $160.4 55% $104.2 44% Total pers. Income $1,975.0 $2,091.8 $2,154.1 $2,478.5 $2,852.0 $3,098.7 $179.0 9% $697.9 32% $246.8 25% Jackson Hole 4-county subarea Labor Earnings $448.9 $629.8 $545.0 $690.5 $890.2 $1,214.5 $96.2 21% $345.2 63% $324.3 36% Investment Income $149.8 $212.5 $279.4 $411.7 $768.5 $832.9 $129.6 87% $489.1 175% $64.4 102% Transfer Paymt Inc. $42.0 $59.9 $65.6 $89.6 $110.8 $143.2 $23.6 56% $45.2 69% $32.4 60% Total pers. Income $640.7 $902.1 $890.0 $1,191.8 $1,769.5 $2,190.7 $249.4 39% $879.5 99% $421.1 84% Riverton/Lander 2-county area Labor Earnings $625.7 $456.9 $405.2 $432.0 $525.7 $572.6 -$220.5 -35% $120.5 30% $47.0 9% Investment Income $139.4 $166.1 $156.2 $171.2 $224.8 $218.2 $16.8 12% $68.5 44% -$6.6 27% Transfer Paymt Inc. $71.4 $96.5 $110.3 $164.4 $192.7 $233.1 $38.9 54% $82.3 75% $40.4 42% Total pers. Income $836.5 $719.4 $671.8 $767.7 $943.1 $1,023.9 -$164.8 -20% $271.3 40% $80.8 33% Region-wide Labor Earnings $6,705.0 $6,928.9 $7,064.7 $8,135.2 $9,795.6 $11,691.6 $359.7 5% $2,730.9 39% $1,896.0 19% Investment Income $1,678.7 $2,249.5 $2,316.1 $2,719.3 $3,622.9 $3,594.0 $637.4 38% $1,306.7 56% -$28.9 32% Transfer Paymt Inc. $908.6 $1,161.7 $1,380.9 $1,768.6 $2,072.2 $2,544.9 $472.4 52% $691.2 50% $472.7 44% Total pers. Income $9,292.3 $10,340.1 $10,761.8 $12,623.1 $15,490.6 $17,830.4 $1,469.5 16% $4,728.8 44% $2,339.8 41% Labor Earnings Share ot Total 72.2% 67.0% 65.6% 64.4% 63.2% 65.6% 24.5% 57.7% 81.0% Investment Income Share of Total 18.1% 21.8% 21.5% 21.5% 23.4% 20.2% 43.4% 27.6% -1.2% Transfer Paymt Inc. Share of Total 9.8% 11.2% 12.8% 14.0% 13.4% 14.3% 32.1% 14.6% 20.2% Source: BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce YBP – Swanson – p. 39 YBP – Swanson – p. 40 Per Capita Income Levels Per Capita Income for Area Counties (2000 Dollars) Among Area Counties $80,000 $74,955

Per capita income is the most frequently $70,000 used measure of area economic well-being. $60,000 However, it is a crude measure, in that it is a simple average and does not account for $50,000 variations in the distribution of income $40,000 among the population. The charts at the $33,540 right show counties of the region rank- $28,047 $28,808 $30,000 $26,185 $24,502 $25,268 ordered from left to right from lowest to $21,967 $22,119 $22,805 $18,883 $19,443 $19,825 highest per capita income, as measured in $20,000 $14,713 2004. The top chart contains all 25 counties. The lower one excludes Teton County, $10,000 Wyoming. Per capita income is much higher in Teton, WY, than in the other counties. $0 D D D D D D Y D Y T Y ID ID I I ID I I I , , I , ID , I , MT , MT MT MT WY , MT M MT MT WY WY e, k , , , , W le , , W , , , , W on k on, lin m, on ou, k, d, n l s r in, k, e s s t ar ss ock b on r a vi te t r tt on i r a ri s ol bon ng a one e t d emont r La ank Te Cl nn i Pa he r Pa a ffe ngha Gr d r nc ne ri lwa bl Te Ma Fr Fr t Ca emont Ca il wst Per capita income has risen fairly Je Bi e Ba Ma ve Li Sp Gall o Su Be a Fr Bon St ll substantially in most of the 25 counties since Swe Be Hot Ye 1990, after losses or only small gains in most '80 '90 '04 of the counties in the ‘80s. For the entire 25-county region, per capita income rose Per Capita Incomes for Area Counties (excl. Teton, ID) from about $17,500 in 1980 to $19, 355 in $45,000

1990 and to $26,200 more recently in 2004, $40,000 all measured in 2000 inflation-adjusted $33,540 dollars. $35,000 $30,000 $28,047 $25,268 $25,000 $21,972 $22,805 $18,883 $20,000

$15,000 $10,000

$5,000

$0

D D ID ID ID D ID T D D T T Y T Y T Y , I , I , , ID I , , I I M MT WY W , ID MT MT W WY n e k M , M , , , e M , W , M , , o on, lin m, on, ou, n k d n, ll r, n, e k e s t ar ss, ock o l te ti n t r a n ib vi bon, a t dis Lak ank Te Cl r Par hea ngs to Par le emont r ffe ngha dis nco ne ri lwa Ma Fr Fr t G Car er emont Car il ws Je Bi e Ban Ma v Li Sp Gall Sub Bea Fr Bon St llo Swe Bea Hot Ye

YBP – Swanson – p. 41 Per Capita Income by Major Sub- Per Capita Income for Sub-areas of the Yellowstone Region area of the Yellowstone Region $50,000

The upper chart shows annual per capita $45,000 $45,141 income levels for each of the multi-county rs a sub-areas since 1980. Per capita income for l $40,000 the Jackson 4-county sub-area is much $35,000 higher than for the other sub-areas, largely sted Dol u due to very high incomes relatively speaking $30,000 $27,488

for residents of Teton County, Wyoming. on-adj $26,199 $25,000 ati fl The lower chart shows gains in per capita n income for each sub-area and region-wide $20,000 $19,355 2000 I for recent periods, all in inflation-adjusted $15,000 dollars. In all but one of the sub-areas (Idaho Falls), per capita income gains in the $10,000 ‘90s were substantially greater than in the '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 ‘80s, and growth is continuing since 2000. Jackson Hole 4-county subarea Billings 5-county subarea Bozeman 4-county subarea Region-wide per capita income rose by less 25-county region Riverton/Landers 2-county area Idaho Falls 5-county subarea than $2,000 in the ‘80s and by over $4,500 Pocatello 5-county subarea in the ‘90s. And growth in the four years since 2000 is at even a faster pace than the Increases in Per Capita Incomes by Period ‘90s, rising by almost $2,300 in only four $14,000 years. $11,785 $12,000 These gains are suggestive of fairly significant improvements in the economic $10,000 '80-'90 well-being of area residents. Gains in per $8,000 capita income in inflation-adjusted dollars '90-'00 are not easily achieved. However, it is $5,869 $5,652 $6,000 $4,941 $5,263 important to consider these gains in per $4,569 '00-'04 capita income against other measures of $4,000 $3,268 $2,939 $2,351 well-being, most notably, area poverty rates. $2,276 $1,929 $2,188 $1,509 $2,000 $1,101

$0 Jackson 4- Billings 5-county Bozeman 4- 25-county region Riverton/Lander Idaho Falls 5- Pocatello 5- county subarea subarea county subarea county subarea county subarea -$2,000

YBP – Swanson – p. 42 Trends in Poverty in the Yellowstone Region Yellowstone Region Counties by Poverty Rates in 2004 15.6% Madison, ID 15.1% The chart shows poverty rates for individual Clark, ID 14.6% counties in the Yellowstone Region for four Beaverhead, MT points in time: 1979, 1989, 1999, and 2004. 13.2% Bingham, ID Poverty statistics are compiled by the U.S. 13.0% Census Bureau as part of its ten-year Bannock, ID 12.9% censuses. But it also makes periodic Fremont, WY 12.6% estimates, with the most recent being 2004. Fremont, ID 12.0% The poverty rate measures the share of area Yellowstone, MT 11.5% residents living in households with incomes 25-County Region 11.5% considered as being below what is Park, MT necessary for basic food and sustenance 11.4% Bonneville, ID (housing, energy, transportation, health care, 10.9% Madison, MT etc.). Nationally derived poverty statistics '04 10.7% do not account for area variations in the cost Bear Lake, ID '99 10.7% of living. Gallatin, MT '89 10.5% Hot Springs, WY '79 10.5% The chart shows individual counties rank- Jefferson, ID 10.4% ordered from the highest poverty rate in Park, WY 2004 to the lowest, and also shows poverty 10.2% Carbon, MT rates for the counties in prior years. 10.1% Madison County in Idaho has the highest Caribou, ID 9.4% poverty rate among counties at 15.6 percent. Sweet Grass, MT 9.1% Next is Clark County with a poverty rate of Franklin, ID 9.0% 15.1 percent. The highest poverty rates for Teton, ID 8.6% most of the counties occurred at the time of Stillwater, MT the 1990 Census. For most, poverty fell in 8.3% Lincoln, WY 2000 and again more recently. For the 6.9% entire 25-county region, the poverty, the Sublette, WY 4.9% poverty rate in 2004 was 11.5 percent, down Teton, WY from 11.7 in 1999, which was down from 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 13.2 percent in 1989. Source: U.S. Census Bureau (Censuses and recent estimates)

Poverty rates in the double-digit percentages should be considered too high and represent a drag on the area economy.

YBP – Swanson – p. 43 County Income Distribution for Households and Families, 1999 Data Set: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data

Yellowstone, MT Stillwater, MT Carbon, MT Sweet Grass, MT Park, WY Billings Sub-Area INCOME IN 1999 No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % Households 52,113 100 3,209 100 4,067 100 1,477 100 10,321 100 71,187 100% Less than $10,000 4,773 9.2 275 8.6 453 11.1 122 8.3 905 8.8 6,528 9.2% $10,000 to $14,999 4,709 9 191 6 356 8.8 145 9.8 825 8 6,226 8.7% $15,000 to $24,999 7,928 15.2 500 15.6 711 17.5 272 18.4 1,694 16.4 11,105 15.6% $25,000 to $34,999 7,466 14.3 483 15.1 687 16.9 239 16.2 1,582 15.3 10,457 14.7% $35,000 to $49,999 9,508 18.2 653 20.3 748 18.4 299 20.2 2,072 20.1 13,280 18.7% $50,000 to $74,999 9,803 18.8 675 21 662 16.3 227 15.4 1,898 18.4 13,265 18.6% $75,000 to $99,999 4,128 7.9 262 8.2 300 7.4 84 5.7 797 7.7 5,571 7.8% $100,000 to $149,999 2,375 4.6 124 3.9 107 2.6 49 3.3 343 3.3 2,998 4.2% $150,000 to $199,999 667 1.3 12 0.4 18 0.4 25 1.7 95 0.9 817 1.1% $200,000 or more 756 1.5 34 1.1 25 0.6 15 1 110 1.1 940 1.3% Median household income ( 36,727 (X) 39,205 (X) 32,139 (X) 32,422 (X) 35,829 (X)

Hshds with earnings 42,067 80.7 2,595 80.9 3,173 78 1,173 79.4 8,335 80.8 57,343 80.6% Mean earnings (dollars) 46,109 (X) 42,675 (X) 36,977 (X) 39,301 (X) 40,884 (X)

Yellowstone, MT Stillwater, MT Carbon, MT Sweet Grass, MT Park, WY Billings Sub-Area INCOME IN 1999 No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % Families 34,488 100 2,336 100 2,715 100 997 100 7,108 100 47,644 100% Less than $10,000 1,741 5 82 3.5 153 5.6 49 4.9 306 4.3 2,331 4.9% $10,000 to $14,999 1,732 5 76 3.3 165 6.1 57 5.7 377 5.3 2,407 5.1% $15,000 to $24,999 4,217 12.2 290 12.4 424 15.6 139 13.9 963 13.5 6,033 12.7% $25,000 to $34,999 4,622 13.4 351 15 466 17.2 180 18.1 1,193 16.8 6,812 14.3% $35,000 to $49,999 7,050 20.4 568 24.3 571 21 238 23.9 1,467 20.6 9,894 20.8% $50,000 to $74,999 8,240 23.9 598 25.6 567 20.9 185 18.6 1,609 22.6 11,199 23.5% $75,000 to $99,999 3,545 10.3 228 9.8 243 9 79 7.9 700 9.8 4,795 10.1% $100,000 to $149,999 2,088 6.1 97 4.2 89 3.3 44 4.4 312 4.4 2,630 5.5% $150,000 to $199,999 612 1.8 12 0.5 18 0.7 15 1.5 90 1.3 747 1.6% $200,000 or more 641 1.9 34 1.5 19 0.7 11 1.1 91 1.3 796 1.7% Median family income (dolla 45,277 (X) 45,238 (X) 38,405 (X) 38,750 (X) 41,406 (X)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Note: Another measure of economic well-being is median household and median family income. These are shown in the tables for each county in the 25-county region. The distribution of income among households and families by income level ranges is also shown.

YBP – Swanson – p. 44 County Income Distrib ution for Households and Families, 1999 Data Set: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data

Gallatin, MT Park, MT Madison, MT Beaverhead, MT Bozeman Sub-Area INCOME IN 1999 No.% No.% No.% No.% No. % Households 26,357 100 6,820 100 2,958 100 3,679 100 39,814 100.0% Less than $10,000 2,139 8.1 817 12 351 11.9 481 13.1 3,788 9.5% $10,000 to $14,999 1,621 6.2 663 9.7 296 10 426 11.6 3,006 7.6% $15,000 to $24,999 3,996 15.2 1,182 17.3 533 18 689 18.7 6,400 16.1% $25,000 to $34,999 4,113 15.6 1,094 16 509 17.2 495 13.5 6,211 15.6% $35,000 to $49,999 5,215 19.8 1,361 20 551 18.6 621 16.9 7,748 19.5% $50,000 to $74,999 5,019 19 1,020 15 435 14.7 632 17.2 7,106 17.8% $75,000 to $99,999 2,157 8.2 312 4.6 141 4.8 188 5.1 2,798 7.0% $100,000 to $149,999 1,405 5.3 264 3.9 91 3.1 118 3.2 1,878 4.7% $150,000 to $199,999 375 1.4 45 0.7 28 0.9 15 0.4 463 1.2% $200,000 or more 317 1.2 62 0.9 23 0.8 14 0.4 416 1.0% Median household inco me (d 38,120 (X) 31,739 (X) 30,233 (X) 28,962 (X)

With earnings 23,248 88.2 5,372 78.8 2,294 77.6 2,952 80.2 33,866 85.1% Mean earnings (dollars) 43,504 (X) 38,298 (X) 35,287 (X) 34,149 (X)

Gallatin, MT Park, MT Madison, MT Beaverhead, MT Bozeman Sub-Area INCOME IN 1999 No.% No.% No.% No.% No. % Families 16,344 100 4,220 100 1,924 100 2,354 100 24,842 100.0% Less than $10,000 665 4.1 211 5 121 6.3 168 7.1 1,165 4.7% $10,000 to $14,999 512 3.1 198 4.7 125 6.5 143 6.1 978 3.9% $15,000 to $24,999 1,772 10.8 601 14.2 304 15.8 384 16.3 3,061 12.3% $25,000 to $34,999 2,294 14 693 16.4 394 20.5 350 14.9 3,731 15.0% $35,000 to $49,999 3,609 22.1 1,069 25.3 402 20.9 497 21.1 5,577 22.4% $50,000 to $74,999 3,961 24.2 894 21.2 377 19.6 551 23.4 5,783 23.3% $75,000 to $99,999 1,720 10.5 266 6.3 96 5 157 6.7 2,239 9.0% $100,000 to $149,999 1,195 7.3 198 4.7 71 3.7 86 3.7 1,550 6.2% $150,000 to $199,999 3442.1 45 1.1 170.9 80.3 414 1.7% $200,000 or more 272 1.7 45 1.1 17 0.9 10 0.4 344 1.4% Median family income (dollar 46,639 (X) 40,561 (X) 35,536 (X) 38,971 (X)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

YBP – Swanson – p. 45 County Income Distribution for Households and Families, 1999 Data Set: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data

Bonneville, ID Madison, ID Jefferson, ID Fremont, ID Clark, ID Idaho Falls Sub-Area INCOME IN 1999 No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % Households 28,742 100 7,154 100 5,901 100 3,892 100 339 100 46,028 100.0% Less than $10,000 2,334 8.1 635 8.9 446 7.6 322 8.3 43 12.7 3,780 8.2% $10,000 to $14,999 1,696 5.9 625 8.7 403 6.8 311 8 32 9.4 3,067 6.7% $15,000 to $24,999 3,996 13.9 1,379 19.3 983 16.7 714 18.3 62 18.3 7,134 15.5% $25,000 to $34,999 3,785 13.2 1,184 16.6 894 15.1 715 18.4 48 14.2 6,626 14.4% $35,000 to $49,999 5,251 18.3 1,273 17.8 1,205 20.4 857 22 108 31.9 8,694 18.9% $50,000 to $74,999 6,099 21.2 1,306 18.3 1,210 20.5 595 15.3 30 8.8 9,240 20.1% $75,000 to $99,999 3,031 10.5 428 6 440 7.5 230 5.9 13 3.8 4,142 9.0% $100,000 to $149,999 1,724 6 187 2.6 224 3.8 103 2.6 1 0.3 2,239 4.9% $150,000 to $199,999 396 1.4 68 1 40 0.7 10 0.3 2 0.6 516 1.1% $200,000 or more 430 1.5 69 1 56 0.9 35 0.9 0 0 590 1.3% Median household income ( 41,805 (X) 32,607 (X) 37,737 (X) 33,424 (X) 31,576 (X)

With earnings 23,998 83.5 6,340 88.6 4,919 83.4 3,198 82.2 294 86.7 38,749 84.2% Mean earnings (dollars) 49,934 (X) 38,392 (X) 43,955 (X) 39,262 (X) 31,976 (X)

Bonneville, ID Madison, ID Jefferson, ID Fremont, ID Clark, ID Idaho Falls Sub-Area INCOME IN 1999 No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % Families 21,495 100 4,879 100 4,889 100 3,058 100 257 100 34,578 100.0% Less than $10,000 858 4 226 4.6 188 3.8 130 4.3 27 10.5 1,429 4.1% $10,000 to $14,999 880 4.1 249 5.1 207 4.2 170 5.6 22 8.6 1,528 4.4% $15,000 to $24,999 2,445 11.4 782 16 760 15.5 523 17.1 47 18.3 4,557 13.2% $25,000 to $34,999 2,825 13.1 778 15.9 734 15 588 19.2 47 18.3 4,972 14.4% $35,000 to $49,999 4,257 19.8 1,011 20.7 1,121 22.9 744 24.3 76 29.6 7,209 20.8% $50,000 to $74,999 5,254 24.4 1,138 23.3 1,147 23.5 551 18 26 10.1 8,116 23.5% $75,000 to $99,999 2,697 12.5 389 8 428 8.8 223 7.3 9 3.5 3,746 10.8% $100,000 to $149,999 1,545 7.2 169 3.5 210 4.3 84 2.7 3 1.2 2,011 5.8% $150,000 to $199,999 356 1.7 68 1.4 38 0.8 10 0.3 0 0 472 1.4% $200,000 or more 378 1.8 69 1.4 56 1.1 35 1.1 0 0 538 1.6% Median family income (dolla 48,216 (X) 40,880 (X) 41,530 (X) 36,715 (X) 31,534 (X)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

YBP – Swanson – p. 46 County Income Distribution for Households and Families, 1999 Data Set: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data

Bannock, ID Bingham, ID Caribou, ID Franklin, ID Bear Lake, ID Pocatello Sub-Area INCOME IN 1999 No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % Households 27,214 100 13,311 100 2,547 100 3,487 100 2,269 100 48,828 100.0% Less than $10,000 2,832 10.4 1,171 8.8 258 10.1 192 5.5 218 9.6 4,671 9.6% $10,000 to $14,999 2,249 8.3 876 6.6 165 6.5 254 7.3 202 8.9 3,746 7.7% $15,000 to $24,999 4,109 15.1 1,992 15 390 15.3 481 13.8 384 16.9 7,356 15.1% $25,000 to $34,999 3,782 13.9 2,296 17.2 360 14.1 724 20.8 442 19.5 7,604 15.6% $35,000 to $49,999 4,800 17.6 2,772 20.8 535 21 764 21.9 377 16.6 9,248 18.9% $50,000 to $74,999 5,144 18.9 2,473 18.6 533 20.9 662 19 451 19.9 9,263 19.0% $75,000 to $99,999 2,339 8.6 1,023 7.7 164 6.4 241 6.9 149 6.6 3,916 8.0% $100,000 to $149,999 1,421 5.2 499 3.7 107 4.2 105 3 40 1.8 2,172 4.4% $150,000 to $199,999 263 1 94 0.7 16 0.6 38 1.1 0 0 411 0.8% $200,000 or more 275 1 115 0.9 19 0.7 26 0.7 6 0.3 441 0.9% Median household income ( 36,683 (X) 36,423 (X) 37,609 (X) 36,061 (X) 32,162 (X)

With earnings 22,530 82.8 11,208 84.2 1,991 78.2 2,951 84.6 1,655 72.9 40,335 82.6% Mean earnings (dollars) 45,460 (X) 42,076 (X) 43,028 (X) 42,539 (X) 38,653 (X)

Bannock, ID Bingham, ID Caribou, ID Franklin, ID Bear Lake, ID Pocatello Sub-Area INCOME IN 1999 No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % Families 19,324 100 10,820 100 1,967 100 2,892 100 1,723 100 36,726 100.0% Less than $10,000 1,084 5.6 567 5.2 78 4 65 2.2 75 4.4 1,869 5.1% $10,000 to $14,999 1,048 5.4 562 5.2 90 4.6 124 4.3 103 6 1,927 5.2% $15,000 to $24,999 2,592 13.4 1,477 13.7 247 12.6 375 13 251 14.6 4,942 13.5% $25,000 to $34,999 2,595 13.4 1,876 17.3 315 16 579 20 369 21.4 5,734 15.6% $35,000 to $49,999 3,730 19.3 2,447 22.6 456 23.2 719 24.9 313 18.2 7,665 20.9% $50,000 to $74,999 4,337 22.4 2,269 21 502 25.5 645 22.3 425 24.7 8,178 22.3% $75,000 to $99,999 2,138 11.1 984 9.1 158 8 223 7.7 141 8.2 3,644 9.9% $100,000 to $149,999 1,325 6.9 456 4.2 98 5 105 3.6 40 2.3 2,024 5.5% $150,000 to $199,999 239 1.2 76 0.7 4 0.2 35 1.2 0 0 354 1.0% $200,000 or more 236 1.2 106 1 19 1 22 0.8 6 0.3 389 1.1% Median family income (dolla 44,192 (X) 40,312 (X) 42,630 (X) 40,185 (X) 38,351 (X)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

YBP – Swanson – p. 47 County Income Distribution for Households and Families, 1999 Data Set: Census 2000 Summary File 3 (SF 3) - Sample Data

Teton, WY Teton, ID Sublette, WY Lincoln, WY Jackson Sub-Area Fremont, WY Hot Springs, INCOME IN 1999 No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % Households 7,698 100 2,094 100 2,372 100 5,295 100 17,459 100.0% 13,553 100 2,117 100 Less than $10,000 275 3.6 134 6.4 181 7.6 333 6.3 923 5.3% 1,626 12 245 11.6 $10,000 to $14,999 354 4.6 90 4.3 176 7.4 311 5.9 931 5.3% 1,139 8.4 211 10 $15,000 to $24,999 709 9.2 257 12.3 329 13.9 716 13.5 2,011 11.5% 2,337 17.2 398 18.8 $25,000 to $34,999 957 12.4 278 13.3 379 16 794 15 2,408 13.8% 2,141 15.8 319 15.1 $35,000 to $49,999 1,197 15.5 550 26.3 460 19.4 1,173 22.2 3,380 19.4% 2,642 19.5 374 17.7 $50,000 to $74,999 1,913 24.9 496 23.7 483 20.4 1,146 21.6 4,038 23.1% 2,180 16.1 320 15.1 $75,000 to $99,999 849 11 170 8.1 194 8.2 541 10.2 1,754 10.0% 813 6 161 7.6 $100,000 to $149,999 633 8.2 66 3.2 101 4.3 200 3.8 1,000 5.7% 432 3.2 73 3.4 $150,000 to $199,999 175 2.3 13 0.6 37 1.6 43 0.8 268 1.5% 107 0.8 10 0.5 $200,000 or more 636 8.3 40 1.9 32 1.3 38 0.7 746 4.3% 136 1 6 0.3 Median household income ( 54,614 (X) 41,968 (X) 39,044 (X) 40,794 (X) 32,503 (X) 29,888 (X)

With earnings 6,956 90.4 1,873 89.4 2,024 85.3 4,276 80.8 15,129 86.7% 10,732 79.2 1,587 75 Mean earnings (dollars) 70,114 (X) 47,188 (X) 46,618 (X) 46,703 (X) 40,404 (X) 34,849 (X)

Teton, WY Teton, ID Sublette, WY Lincoln, WY Jackson Sub-Area Fremont, WY Hot Springs, INCOME IN 1999 No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % Families 4,254 100 1,500 100 1,696 100 3,976 100 11,426 100.0% 9,495 100 1,372 100 Less than $10,000 66 1.6 87 5.8 74 4.4 117 2.9 344 3.0% 783 8.2 60 4.4 $10,000 to $14,999 71 1.7 41 2.7 99 5.8 143 3.6 354 3.1% 589 6.2 97 7.1 $15,000 to $24,999 204 4.8 155 10.3 183 10.8 444 11.2 986 8.6% 1,418 14.9 250 18.2 $25,000 to $34,999 460 10.8 179 11.9 273 16.1 597 15 1,509 13.2% 1,526 16.1 176 12.8 $35,000 to $49,999 613 14.4 391 26.1 332 19.6 980 24.6 2,316 20.3% 1,967 20.7 298 21.7 $50,000 to $74,999 1,164 27.4 397 26.5 421 24.8 999 25.1 2,981 26.1% 1,911 20.1 277 20.2 $75,000 to $99,999 607 14.3 138 9.2 171 10.1 476 12 1,392 12.2% 728 7.7 138 10.1 $100,000 to $149,999 445 10.5 59 3.9 79 4.7 152 3.8 735 6.4% 401 4.2 60 4.4 $150,000 to $199,999 142 3.3 13 0.9 32 1.9 34 0.9 221 1.9% 82 0.9 10 0.7 $200,000 or more 482 11.3 40 2.7 32 1.9 34 0.9 588 5.1% 90 0.9 6 0.4 Median family income (dolla 63,916 (X) 45,848 (X) 45,000 (X) 44,919 (X) 37,983 (X) 39,364 (X)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

YBP – Swanson – p. 48

Region-wide Growth in Employment in the Total Employment in the 25-County Yellowstone Region Yellowstone Region 500,000 443,942 450,000 The 25-county Yellowstone Region has experienced 407,938 relatively strong growth in employment, after slow growth 400,000 and some decline in the mid-80s. This strong employment 350,000 growth began in 1988 – the year of the great fire at 303,259 300,000 Yellowstone National Park – and this growth has continued 266,081 up until the present. 250,000

The upper chart shows annual average levels of total 200,000 employment, which includes all full- and part-time 150,000 employment in the region of all types. These employment 100,000 data are derived from quarterly employment counts and do not separate full- from part-time jobs. The total number of 50,000 jobs in the region in 1980 was 266,000 and this grew only 0 moderately to 303,000 in 1990 – expansion of 37,000 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 additional jobs. By 2000 the total number of jobs had risen Source: BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce (includes all full and part-time employment) to almost 408,000 – an increase of 105,000, three-times the job growth in the ‘80s. And in the four years since 2000, total employment has climbed to almost 444,000 – an Year-to-Year Change in Total Employment: Yellowstone Region 20,000 increase of 36,000 jobs or more than all of the increase for 17,729 the region in the ‘80s.

Year-to-year employment growth is shown in the lower 15,000 12,147 11,832 chart. In 1988 jobs grew by more than 10,600 and in 1994, 11,259 10,746 10,920 jobs expanded by more than 17,700 in just the one year – 10,693 the peak job growth year for the region. Since the mid-90s, 10,000 annual job growth has remained very strong, exceeding 6,370 5,798 10,000 new jobs annually in many years. 5,000 The composition of this job growth is examined in more detail by looking at wage and salary job growth versus proprietor or self-employment job growth. These are two 0 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 major divisions in the types of jobs. Another is to separate jobs into public or government employment versus private -5,000 sector employment.

YBP – Swanson – p. 49 Employment Change in the Region by Wage & Salary vs. Proprietor Employment in the 25-County Region Wage & Salary vs. Proprietor Employment 400,000

During the region’s rather strong employment growth since 350,000 334,578 the early ‘90s, job growth has been fairly evenly shared 311,130 between increases in wage and salary employment and 300,000 proprietor or self-employment. In the ‘90s overall jobs 250,000 increased by 34.5 percent with wage and salary 231,743 211,565 210,158 employment increasing by 34.3 percent and proprietor 200,000 employment growing by 35.4 percent. This contrasts with the ‘80s when most job growth was by proprietors. Since 150,000 2000, job growth in the region has been at a faster rate 109,364 among proprietors – up 13 percent versus 7.5 percent for 100,000 96,808 wage and salary jobs – but over 23,000 of the 36,000 new 71,516 50,000 54,516 jobs are wage and salary employment.

0 Employment Growth by Major Type by Period: '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 25-County Region Source: BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce 120,000 104,679 Wage & salary emp Proprietors emp

100,000

79,387 Percentage Growth in Employment by Major Type: 25-County 80,000 40% Region '80-'90 35.4% 34.3% 34.5% 35% 60,000 '90-'00 31.2% 30% 37,178 '00-'04 40,000 36,004 25% '80-'90 23,448 25,292 20,178 17,000 20,000 12,556 20% '90-'00

14.0% 15% 13.0% 0 '00-'04 Wage & salary Proprietors emp Total full- & part- 9.5% 10% 8.8% emp time emp 7.5%

In 2004 wage and salary employment in the region totaled 5% more than 334,000 jobs while proprietor employment stood 0% at over 109,000. Wage & salary emp Proprietors emp Total full- & part-time emp

YBP – Swanson – p. 50 Public versus Private Employment Growth Private vs. Public Employment in the 25-County Region in the Yellowstone Region 400,000

360,543 Total employment also can be examined in terms of growth 350,000 in public or government employment versus job growth by 327,127 the private sector. Public employment includes all jobs in 300,000 the region by employees of the state and national 250,000 governments. However, the largest category of public 232,134 208,537 employment is local government, which includes all workers 200,000 199,612 for city and county governments as well as employees of local public schools. Private employment is separated into 150,000 two categories: private non-farm jobs and jobs on farms and ranches, mainly those of farmers and ranchers 100,000 59,885 63,113 themselves. 50,000 51,123 43,518 22,951 20,286 In the ‘80s, private non-farm jobs grew by 32,500 and 16 0 percent while public sector jobs grew by 7,600 and 17.5 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 percent. However, in the ‘90s, job growth was mainly Source: BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce concentrated in private non-farm employment, increasing Private nonfarm emp. All Govt. emp. Farm & Ranch emp. by almost 95,000 and over 40 percent versus only 17 percent growth in public sector jobs. Percent Private vs. Public Employment Change: 25-County Region Private vs. Public Employment Change by Period 50% 94,993 100,000 40.9% 40%

80,000 30%

'80-'90 60,000 17.5% '80-'90 20% 16.3% 17.1% 10.2% '90-'00 '90-'00 40,000 33,416 10% 32,522 5.4% 4.6% '00-'04 '00-'04 0% 20,000 Private nonfarm emp. All Govt. emp. Farm & Ranch emp. 7,6058,762 -3.1% 3,228 924 -10% 0 -12.8% Private nonfarm All Govt. emp. Farm & Ran-640ch emp. emp. -20% -20,000

YBP – Swanson – p. 51 Total Employment by Major Type by Yellowstone Region Sub-Area All Full- and Part-time Employment Growth by Period '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '04 '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'04 Billings 5-county subarea Total full- & part-time emp 81,645 88,114 92,939 107,297 118,892 127,804 11,294 14% 25,953 28% 8,912 7.5% Share of Region-wide Total 30.7% 31.2% 30.6% 30.0% 29.1% 28.8% 30.4% 24.8% 24.8% Wage and salary emp 65,203 67,742 71,765 83,352 92,390 99,040 6,562 10% 20,625 29% 6,650 7.2% Proprietors emp 16,442 20,372 21,174 23,945 26,502 28,764 4,732 29% 5,328 25% 2,262 8.5% Farm proprietors 2,926 3,059 3,020 3,142 3,317 3,314 94 3% 297 10% -3 -0.1% Nonfarm proprietors emp 13,516 17,313 18,154 20,803 23,185 25,450 4,638 34% 5,031 28% 2,265 9.8% Farm & Ranch emp 4,163 4,027 3,902 4,047 4,298 4,186 -261 -6% 396 10% -112 -2.6% Nonfarm emp 77,482 84,087 89,037 103,250 114,594 123,618 11,555 15% 25,557 29% 9,024 7.9% Private nonfarm emp 66,297 71,938 76,105 89,927 100,771 109,277 9,808 15% 24,666 32% 8,506 8.4% Bozeman 4-county subarea Total full- & part-time emp 34,658 40,060 45,937 59,189 69,853 79,163 11,279 33% 23,916 52% 9,310 13.3% Share of Region-wide Total 13.0% 14.2% 15.1% 16.5% 17.1% 17.8% 30.3% 22.8% 25.9% Wage and salary emp 26,569 29,181 33,051 43,210 50,811 56,195 6,482 24% 17,760 54% 5,384 10.6% Proprietors emp 8,089 10,879 12,886 15,979 19,042 22,968 4,797 59% 6,156 48% 3,926 20.6% Farm proprietors 1,819 1,999 1,968 2,048 2,203 2,208 149 8% 235 12% 5 0.2% Nonfarm proprietors emp 6,270 8,880 10,918 13,931 16,839 20,760 4,648 74% 5,921 54% 3,921 23.3% Farm & Ranch emp 3,021 3,121 2,955 2,984 3,208 3,087 -66 -2% 253 9% -121 -3.8% Nonfarm emp 31,637 36,939 42,982 56,205 66,645 76,076 11,345 36% 23,663 55% 9,431 14.2% Private nonfarm emp 23,629 28,578 33,538 45,794 55,768 64,775 9,909 42% 22,230 66% 9,007 16.2% Idaho Falls 5-county subarea Total full- & part-time emp 50,963 52,784 61,353 71,061 82,537 90,834 10,390 20% 21,184 35% 8,297 10.1% Share of Region-wide Total 19.2% 18.7% 20.2% 19.8% 20.2% 20.5% 27.9% 20.2% 23.0% Wage and salary emp 40,958 42,084 48,161 55,315 64,935 71,018 7,203 18% 16,774 35% 6,083 9.4% Proprietors emp 10,005 10,700 13,192 15,746 17,602 19,816 3,187 32% 4,410 33% 2,214 12.6% Farm proprietors 2,990 3,095 2,623 2,698 2,776 2,798 -367 -12% 153 6% 22 0.8% Nonfarm proprietors emp 7,015 7,605 10,569 13,048 14,826 17,018 3,554 51% 4,257 40% 2,192 14.8% Farm & Ranch emp 5,951 5,027 4,858 4,790 4,796 4,623 -1,093 -18% -62 -1% -173 -3.6% Nonfarm emp 45,012 47,757 56,495 66,271 77,741 86,211 11,483 26% 21,246 38% 8,470 10.9% Private nonfarm emp 37,798 40,564 48,124 56,921 67,960 76,141 10,326 27% 19,836 41% 8,181 12.0% Pocatello 5-county subarea Total full- & part-time emp 57,072 56,021 57,832 66,604 74,785 78,838 760 1% 16,953 29% 4,053 5.4% Share of Region-wide Total 21.4% 19.8% 19.1% 18.6% 18.3% 17.8% 2.0% 16.2% 11.3% Wage and salary emp 45,963 44,570 45,017 51,192 57,099 59,965 -946 -2% 12,082 27% 2,866 5.0% Proprietors emp 11,109 11,451 12,815 15,412 17,686 18,873 1,706 15% 4,871 38% 1,187 6.7% Farm proprietors 3,627 3,927 3,377 3,558 3,742 3,773 -250 -7% 365 11% 31 0.8% Nonfarm proprietors emp 7,482 7,524 9,438 11,854 13,944 15,100 1,956 26% 4,506 48% 1,156 8.3% Farm & Ranch emp 6,376 5,740 5,258 5,317 5,522 5,384 -1,118 -18% 264 5% -138 -2.5% Nonfarm emp 50,696 50,281 52,574 61,287 69,263 73,454 1,878 4% 16,689 32% 4,191 6.1% Private nonfarm emp 40,134 39,614 40,477 47,391 54,015 56,978 343 1% 13,538 33% 2,963 5.5%

YBP – Swanson – p. 52 All Full- and Part-time Employment Growth by Period '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '04 '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'04 Jackson 4-county subarea Total full- & part-time emp 18,819 25,224 25,446 31,778 37,649 41,978 6,627 35% 12,203 48% 4,329 11.5% Share of Region-wide Total 7.1% 8.9% 8.4% 8.9% 9.2% 9.5% 17.8% 11.7% 12.0% Wage and salary emp 14,195 19,783 18,756 23,161 27,851 30,040 4,561 32% 9,095 48% 2,189 7.9% Proprietors emp 4,624 5,441 6,690 8,617 9,798 11,938 2,066 45% 3,108 46% 2,140 21.8% Farm proprietors 1,175 1,245 1,147 1,160 1,174 1,164 -28 -2% 27 2% -10 -0.9% Nonfarm proprietors emp 3,449 4,196 5,543 7,457 8,624 10,774 2,094 61% 3,081 56% 2,150 24.9% Farm & Ranch emp 2,060 1,826 1,697 1,668 1,695 1,642 -363 -18% -2 0% -53 -3.1% Nonfarm emp 16,759 23,398 23,749 30,110 35,954 40,336 6,990 42% 12,205 51% 4,382 12.2% Private nonfarm emp 14,189 20,194 20,297 25,940 31,222 35,204 6,108 43% 10,925 54% 3,982 12.8% Riverton/Landers 2-county subarea Total full- & part-time emp 22,924 20,033 19,752 22,212 24,222 25,325 -3,172 -14% 4,470 23% 1,103 4.6% Share of Region-wide Total 8.6% 7.1% 6.5% 6.2% 5.9% 5.7% -8.5% 4.3% 3.1% Wage and salary emp 18,677 15,513 14,993 16,573 18,044 18,320 -3,684 -20% 3,051 20% 276 1.5% Proprietors emp 4,247 4,520 4,759 5,639 6,178 7,005 512 12% 1,419 30% 827 13.4% Farm proprietors 912 991 994 1,045 1,066 1,051 82 9% 72 7% -15 -1.4% Nonfarm proprietors emp 3,335 3,529 3,765 4,594 5,112 5,954 430 13% 1,347 36% 842 16.5% Farm & Ranch emp 1,380 1,323 1,332 1,370 1,407 1,364 -48 -3% 75 6% -43 -3.1% Nonfarm emp 21,544 18,710 18,420 20,842 22,815 23,961 -3,124 -15% 4,395 24% 1,146 5.0% Private nonfarm emp 17,565 14,220 13,593 15,915 17,391 18,168 -3,972 -23% 3,798 28% 777 4.5% Region-wide Total full- & part-time emp 266,081 282,236 303,259 358,141 407,938 443,942 37,178 14% 104,679 35% 36,004 8.8% Wage and salary emp 211,565 218,873 231,743 272,803 311,130 334,578 20,178 10% 79,387 34% 23,448 7.5% W&S Share of total 80% 78% 76% 76% 76% 75% 54% 76% 65% Proprietors emp 54,516 63,363 71,516 85,338 96,808 109,364 17,000 31% 25,292 35% 12,556 13.0% Proprie. Share of total 20% 22% 24% 24% 24% 25% 46% 24% 35% Farm proprietors 13,449 14,316 13,129 13,651 14,278 14,308 -320 -2% 1,149 9% 30 0.2% Nonfarm proprietors emp 41,067 49,047 58,387 71,687 82,530 95,056 17,320 42% 24,143 41% 12,526 15.2% Farm & Ranch emp 22,951 21,064 20,002 20,176 20,926 20,286 -2,949 -13% 924 5% -640 -3.1% Nonfarm emp 243,130 261,172 283,257 337,965 387,012 423,656 40,127 17% 103,755 37% 36,644 9.5% Private nonfarm emp 199,612 215,108 232,134 281,888 327,127 360,543 32,522 16% 94,993 41% 33,416 10.2% Private share of non-farm total 82% 82% 82% 83% 85% 85% 81% 92% 91% Public of Govt. emp 43,518 46,064 51,123 56,077 59,885 63,113 7,605 8,762 3,228 Public share of non-farm total 18% 18% 18% 17% 15% 15% 19% 8% 9%

Source: BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce

YBP – Swanson – p. 53 Distribution of Region-wide Employment by The four regional center counties together accounted for a total of County 260,000 jobs or almost 59 percent of the region’s total. Among the 21 other counties in the region, Teton, Wyoming, has the highest

employment with nearly 24,000. The Jackson area in many ways There were nearly 444,000 full- and part-time jobs across the 24- operates like a fifth regional employment center, having considerably county region in 2004 and the chart below shows how these jobs are more jobs than the county actually has residents. The chart below distributed among the individual counties. Job counts for 1990 also shows the ratio of total population-to-total jobs. High ratios, like are shown. Yellowstone County, the region’s most populated Teton County’s, are indicative of some county jobs being filled by county, also has the highest employment with over 95,000 jobs – non-county residents. Very low ratios, like Fremont, Franklin, almost 22 percent of the total. Gallatin County and Bonneville Jefferson, and Bear Lake in Idaho, suggest that many residents of County, both also regional centers, were second and third, each with these counties work outside of their county of residence. about 59,000 jobs and 13 percent of the region’s total each. In fourth is Bannock County, the fourth regional center county. Counties by Ratio of Total Employ-to-Total Pop.: '90 & '04 Yellowstone Counties by Total Employment: '90 & '04 Teton, WY 1.26 95,263 Yellowstone, MT Clark, ID 0.95 59,663 Gallatin, MT Gallatin, MT 0.79 58,796 Bonneville, ID Sublette, WY 0.78 Bannock, ID 45,366 Sweet Grass, MT 0.75 Teton, WY 23,987 Park Co., WY 0.72 Fremont, WY 22,223 Yellowstone, MT 0.71 Bingham, ID 20,579 Hot Springs, WY 0.68 19,112 Park Co., WY Region-wide 0.55 0.66 Madison, ID 16,793 Bonneville, ID 0.66 Park, MT 9,543 Caribou, ID 0.65 Lincoln, WY 9,292 Beaverhead, MT 0.64 Jefferson, ID 9,291 Stillwater, MT 0.62 Beaverhead, MT 5,626 Fremont, WY 0.61 Carbon, MT 5,397 Madison, MT 0.61 Stillwater, MT 5,249 Park, MT 0.60 Franklin, ID 5,215 Lincoln, WY 0.59 0.58 Sublette, WY 5,204 Bannock, ID 0.56 Fremont, ID 5,063 Madison, ID 0.55 Caribou, ID 4,712 Carbon, MT 0.48 Madison, MT 4,331 Teton, ID 0.48 Teton, ID 3,495 Bingham, ID Bear Lake, ID 0.47 Hot Springs, WY 3,102 Jefferson, ID 0.45 Bear Lake, ID 2,966 Franklin, ID 0.43 Sweet Grass, MT 2,783 Fremont, ID 0.41 Clark, ID 891 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 Source: BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Source: Swanson, using BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce data

YBP – Swanson – p. 54 County-Level Growth in Total Employment These 5 counties accounted for 61 percent of all employment in 1990 and 68 percent of growth since then, indicating that the region’s The magnitude and pace of employment growth in the region at the employment is actually concentrating in its cities and regional county-level is shown in terms of total job growth at the left and employment centers. However, there was strong employment percentage job growth at the right. Gallatin had the greatest growth in many of the other counties, most notably, Teton County, increase in total employment and second highest percentage Idaho – the Driggs area – with job growth of 153 percent. Sublette increase – up by 27,700 jobs and 87 percent from 1990 through County, Wyoming, and Stillwater County, Montana, both had gains of 2004 – a period of fairly rapid job growth region-wide. Teton County, over 60 percent. And Sweet Grass, Montana, and Madison County, Wyoming, had the third fastest job growth – up 70 percent – and the Idaho, were close behind with gains of over 55 percent. Of the 12 fifth largest increase with 9,870. Teton along with the four regional counties with gains greater than the regional average – 46 percent – center counties accounted for 68 percent of all employment growth in 10 are not regional center (9 excluding Teton, Wyoming). the region since 1990.

Yellowstone Counties by Employment Growth, 1990 to Yellowstone Counties by % Emp. Growth, 1990 to 2004

2004 Teton, ID 153% Gallatin, MT 27,685 Gallatin, MT 87% Yellowstone, MT 24,779 Teton, WY 70% Bonneville, ID 19,313 Sublette, WY 69% Bannock, ID 14,278 Stillwater, MT 62% Teton, WY 9,869 Sweet Grass, MT 58% Madison, ID 6,105 Madison, ID 57% Fremont, WY 5,286 Jefferson, ID 52% Park Co., WY 5,220 Carbon, MT 51% Bingham, ID 3,558 Franklin, ID 51% Jefferson, ID 3,173 Bonneville, ID 49% Park, MT 2,889 Madison, MT 48% Lincoln, WY 2,424 Region-wide 46% Sublette, WY 2,127 Bannock, ID 46% Teton, ID 2,112 Park, MT 43% Stillwater, MT 2,016 Park Co., WY 38% 1,832 Carbon, MT Lincoln, WY 35% Franklin, ID 1,752 Yellowstone, MT 35% Madison, MT 1,406 Bear Lake, ID 33% Beaverhead, MT 1,246 Fremont, WY 31% Sweet Grass, MT 1,018 Beaverhead, MT 28% Fremont, ID 757 Bingham, ID 21% Bear Lake, ID 736 Fremont, ID 18% Caribou, ID 682 Clark, ID 18% Hot Springs, WY 287 Caribou, ID 17% Clark, ID 133 Hot Springs, WY 10%

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Source: Swanson, using BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce data Source: Swanson, using BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce data

YBP – Swanson – p. 55 Yellowstone Region Employment Change by The chart below shows these same 24 sectors by amount of Major Sector employment growth in this recent period, 2001 to 2004. Region-wide Employment Growth by Major Sector: 2001-04 4,895 The U.S. Department of Commerce and its Bureau of Economic 5,000 Analysis compile data by major sector and there are 24 of these sectors under the new NAICS codes, which replaced older SIC industry codes in 2001. The chart below rank orders employment in 4,000 the Yellowstone 25-county region by these 24 major sectors. The largest sector, measured in both full- and part-time jobs, is retail 3,178 3,000 trade with 53,700 in 2004. Next is health care services at 42,000. 2,668

2,271 Total Region-wide Employment by Major Sector: '01 & '04 2,076 2,000 Retail Tr 53,729 1,416 Health Care serv 41,976 1,065 Accom. & Food serv 39,344 1,000 Local govt 37,299 Construction 36,726 Prof & Techl serv 27,185 0 23,762 Other services n g g h o vt Tr on s vt es c ti ces sur l in i h o tary ti ing n serv n t e i i r e serv c go rvi I i a r l Govt il t serv til 20,398 ru d serv hl servetai M d serv a Ran Manufacturing ar t o E ivi M esale Tr U actu C s ocal ec R orm W tate g . em f Fo eal EstateL T Recr S .S h on Waste Rserv er se Inf hol t & th ance & . & U anu C . & n f & ter, t ed C W anag arm & & Forest serv 20,286 eal O i n F F M Farm & Ranch m in. F ro M g -1,000H P E A cco ts, ransp A dm r T Admin. & Waste serv 20,177 A A Wholesale Tr 17,342 During this 3-year period, jobs region-wide grew by 6.3 percent. Real Estate 16,590 Health care jobs grew by more than 13 percent – up 4,895 jobs, the State govt 15,619 largest gain among all of the sectors. Construction jobs grew by Finance & Insur 15,400 3,178, an increase of almost 10 percent. The third largest gain was Transpt. & Warehsg 11,080 by accommodation and food services (motels, restaurants, etc.), up Arts, Enter, Recr serv 10,780 by 2,668 jobs and 7 percent. Real estate jobs, those associated with Mining 6,965 real estate sales, development, leasing, rental, etc., grew by 2,182, a Fed Civil Govt 6,943 15 percent gain. Information 6,455 5,537 Ag & Forest serv In the chart above, all sectors in blue are “service” sectors, including 3,412 Ed serv health care shown in dark blue. Sectors linked to travel and tourism, 3,252 U.S. Military including accommodation and food services; arts, entertainment and 3,087 Utilities recreation services, and retail trade are shown in light orange. The Managemt serv 1,078 light red sectors, including construction, real estate, and finance and 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 insurance – are all sectors tied closely to area population growth and Swanson, using BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce data (making estimates for data suppression) housing expansion.

YBP – Swanson – p. 56 Sector Employment Change in Yellowstone 2001-04 Sector Employment Growth: 4 Reg. Centers Regional Population Centers 3,000 2,920 2,751 The chart below examines employment change by major sector in the four regional population center counties only – Yellowstone, 2,500 Gallatin, Bonneville, and Bannock. Retail trade has the most 2,100 employment at nearly 34,000, followed by health care at 27,500. 2,000

Sector Employment: Four Reg. Center Counties, '01 & '04 1,499 1,500 1,243 Retail Tr 33,959 1,089 Health care serv 27,463 965 1,000 Accom & Food serv 21,569 Construction 20,417 500 Prof & Tech serv 19,092 Local govt 15,709 Admin & Waste serv 15,348 0

14,243 n v v v te r v rv v v vt y s v g Other services o r r T es ur vt Tr r ng sg r rv ie r ti e er ta l ic er s e o e er i h o ovt ta nch t in s s ai s In s g l se s n e g i se li se e se d t rv h a n r il g i . tur uc r te Es e cr al Mi e Mil Ra c 12,629 tr s o l s c es Ed o v at Ut or a Wholesale Tr s a Re e & Re ti wa Ci gmt & F -500 Fo , Lo & St S. a uf th ca Wa Re er & Tec nc r hol ma d U. n rm n Con l & & h W t. a na or p Fe Ma Fa Ag & State govt 12,421 n Ot of Ent f Ma He om Pr Fi , In c ts ans Tr Manufacturing 11,586 Admi Ac Ar Finance & Insur 10,084 In this relatively fast-growing region, construction added more jobs Real Estate 9,311 than any other sector in recent years. Real estate, another sector Transpt. & warehsg 6,965 heavily influenced by area growth in construction (also shown in light Arts, Entr, Recr serv 6,298 red), had the fifth largest increase in jobs. Health care closely Farm & Ranch 4,810 followed with job growth of 2,750. A new service category under the Information serv 4,279 NAICS codes – Administrative and Waste Services – added 2,100 Fed Civil govt 3,746 jobs. Accommodation and food services added the fourth most jobs – up nearly 1,500. Retail trade was sixth in job growth. Ed serv 2,597

U.S. Military 1,801 Sectors shown in light red (growth influenced ones), light orange Utilities 1,651 (travel and tourism related), and blue (other service sectors) are Ag & For. serv 1,585 where most of the employment growth in the four regional center Mining 1,234 724 counties has been concentrated. There was very little gain in mining Managmt serv industry employment in these counties and manufacturing 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 employment actually declined. Swanson, using U.S. Dept. of Commerce data making estimates for suppressed data

YBP – Swanson – p. 57 Sector Employment Change in the Yellowstone 2001-04 Sector Employment Growth: 21 Rural Counties Region Outside of the Major Regional Centers 2,500

The balance of regional employment, taking out that occurring in the 2,144 four regional center counties, is shown below by major sector. In the 2,000 21 more rural counties, local government including city and county government and local public schools is the largest employer with nearly 21,600 workers. It is followed closely by retail trade at 19,800. 1,500 1,336

1,169 Sector Employment: 21 Rural Counties, '01 & '04

21,590 1,000 939 Local govt 836 Retail Tr 19,770 Accom & Food serv 17,775 451 16,309 500 Construction 331 Farm & Ranch 15,476 Health care serv 14,513 0 Other services 9,519 v t v s e g v t v r t rv rv v rv v vt Tr r s ry r g er ce a ng sur e ion er hs l ie a 8,812 s i t n s t e i se t lit ov nch e Tr in Manufacturing e se gov rv ni s r go a t ili i g . se ur r l e Es h cr se uc e se n e il Ra sal t od s Mi c Ed ser t Ut v c ca al Re tr tio wa a Ret . M le Fo Te , s ast & agm S o fa 8,093 th ca Lo er Re nce & I r . St n m & h u Prof & Tech serv l & h & t ma a U. d Ci r n a na n Con & W r pt e W m Ot of E o M F Fa Ag & For Ma He -500 Fi r , in nf ns Real Estate 7,279 co P ts I a Ac Tr Ar Adm Mining 5,731 The biggest increase in employment among sectors in recent years 5,316 Finance & Insur is by health care, up by 2,144 jobs. Local government had the 4,829 Admin & Waste serv second largest increase with 1,336, followed by accommodation and 4,713 Wholesale Tr food services. While growth is focused in blue sectors (health care 4,482 Arts, Entr, Recr serv and other services sub-sectors), light red sectors (growth and 4,115 Transpt. & warehsg construction dependent), and travel and tourism sectors (light 3,952 Ag & For. serv orange), there also was a sizeable increase in area employment in State govt 3,198 mining – up by an estimated 840 jobs in this recent four-year period. Fed Civil govt 3,197 Information serv 2,176 Significant employment losses occurred in manufacturing and U.S. Military 1,451 wholesale trade. Losses in manufacturing employment also Utilities 1,436 occurred in the regional center counties of the region. With the Ed serv 815 exception of gains by mining, mainly oil and gas drilling and Managmt serv 354 exploration, employment growth in the 21-county area can be 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 characterized as largely being service, tourism, and construction and real estate driven. Swanson, using U.S. Dept. of Commerce data,making estimates for suppressed data

YBP – Swanson – p. 58 Recent Growth in Sector Labor Earnings in Health care generated the most labor income in the four counties at Yellowstone Regional Center Counties $946 million in 2004, roughly 12 percent of all labor earnings in the counties. These grew by $121 million, inflation-adjusted, between

2001 and 2004, accounting for 13.5 percent of all labor income gains Another way of measuring sector activity is to examine employment by the counties. Professional and technical services is the second labor earnings. Labor earnings include compensation for work – all largest sector at $829 million in labor earnings, 10.5 percent of the 4- wage and salary payments to workers as well as self-employment or county total. These grew by $84 million – up 9.5% - between 2001 proprietor earnings. The chart below shows sector labor earnings for and 2004, accounting for ten percent of all labor income gains. the four regional center counties combined. 2001-04 Sector Labor Inc. Growth: 4 Reg. Centers Sector Labor Earnings: 4 Reg. Center Counties, '01 & '04 $140 Health care serv $946 $121 Prof & Tech serv $829 $120 $734 Retail Tr $98 Construction $662 $100 $84 Local govt $594 $80 Manufacturing $567 $69 $543 $59 Wholesale Tr $55 $60 $52 State govt $427

2000 Dollars $43 Finance & insur $344 $40 Real Estate $305 illions of

Fed Civil govt $300 M $20 Accom & Food serv $275 $244 Other services $0

$230 . Admin & Waste serv v n v r te g vt v y v v g s rv v r o vt Tr T ur r es r s ie r rv rv ng ti er o e l ovt ta s in o e ic ta er Inc er t e e i s g l ai g in s i s s eh li s se se s n e se h a t tur il g rv n d r i $222 r uc al e Es c te e Mil cr or Mi Transpt. & Warehsg -$20 tr c es at l a v s s o o Ut Ed F s Re a e & Ci ti Wa Re gmt Lo St uf S. Fo , a th ca & Tec hol Re nc n d Wa er U. ma Ag Net & r n l Con h & t. $157 a W na Fe & or p Ma Ag & Information serv of Ma n Ot f Ent He Pr Fi In om , c ans ts Utilities $122 -$40 Admi Ac Tr Ar $86 Swanson, U.S. Dept. of Commerce data, estimating suppressed data Arts, Entr, Recr serv Mining $79 Gains in sector labor earnings are concentrated among construction Ag Net Inc. $76 and growth dependent sectors (light red), service sectors including U.S. Military $58 health care (blue), and state and local government. There were Ag & For serv $33 gains by manufacturing, up $43 million, but almost surprisingly, Ed serv $32 losses by mining, with most of this in Yellowstone County which lost Managmt serv $31 $19 million in mining labor earnings during this period. Mining also declined in Gallatin County – down by $2.8 million. It was not $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 Millions of 2000 Dollars possible to estimate sector labor earnings for the 21 rural counties because of the extent of data suppression at the sector level.

YBP – Swanson – p. 59 Sector Labor Earnings Change in the Larger Sector Labor Earnings Overtime: Idaho-Montana-Wyoming Region – Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming $6,000

The change in industry codes from SIC to NAICS used in compiling income and employment data creates difficulties in looking at longer $5,000 term trends in growth at the sector level. County-level data in the new NAICS codes only exists for 2001 through 2004. However, data have been constructed for NAICS sectors at the state level, back to $4,000 1990. The chart at the right shows major sectors of the economy organized from largest to smallest, in terms of labor earnings in 2005, and traces back to show patterns of growth since 1990 across $3,000 this 3-state region.

Under these new codes the very largest sector measured in terms of Millions of 2000 Dollars $2,000 labor earnings is “local government.” This sector includes employment earnings by everyone employed in city and county government and in local public education. The new NAICS codes $1,000 subdivided the very larger services sector in the SIC codes into 9 different service sectors. The largest among these is health care and social assistance. Health care comes very close to local $0 government in labor earnings, both approaching $5.4 billion. '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 Manufacturing is third largest at just over $5 billion. Source: Swanson, using BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce data

Local govt Health care Manufacturing Three major sectors have risen to the $4 to $5 billion range, including construction, retail trade, and professional and technical Construction Retail Tr. Prof. & tech serv services (a wide range of services that include engineers, architects, All Mining State govt Fed civilian govt accountants, lawyers, computer technicians, lab workers, etc.). The Wholesale Tr. Finance & insur. Transport/warehsg top six sectors listed above all exceed $4 billion in labor earnings. Accom & food serv Real estate Admin & waste serv There are no sectors in the $3 billion to $4 billion range, but several Net Farm Other services U.S.Military appear just below $3 billion, including “all mining” – including oil and Information Utilities Management serv gas exploration and production, coal mining, metals mining, and Arts, entertmt, recre For., fishng serv Educational serv mining-related services – at about $2.9 billion. Next is state government at $2.7 billion, followed by the federal civilian Sectors shown in blue are service sectors of one type or another, government, wholesale trade, finance and insurance, and including health care services shown in dark blue. Sectors shown in transportation and warehousing. All of the other sectors have labor red are those most tied to area construction activity, including earnings of less than $2 billion. The sectors are color-coded within construction itself plus real estate and finance and insurance. the chart to help in analyzing trends. Sectors in yellow are governmental sectors. Sectors in black are primary sectors – manufacturing, transportation, and utilities.

YBP – Swanson – p. 60 Recent Growth in Sector Labor Earnings Across The chart below rank-orders the sectors by amount of labor earnings the Larger 3-State Region growth between 1995 and 2005. Health care had the greatest growth with a more than $2 billion increase. Next are construction

and professional and technical services, both with gains of about The chart below focuses on sector growth over the last ten-year $1.7 billion. Local government is fourth with a gain of $1.46 billion, period from 1995 to 2005. Sectors are rank-ordered from top to followed by mining at $1.4 billion. bottom based upon total labor earnings, with labor earnings in both 1995 and 2005 shown. Local government, health care, Sectors Labor Earnings Growth, 1995-2005: ID-MT-WY manufacturing, construction, retail trade, and professional and Health care $2,033 technical services are the largest sectors, all exceeding $4 billion. Construction $1,730 Prof. & tech serv $1,673 Sectors Labor Earnings, Idaho-Montana-Wyoming, '95 & Local govt $1,455 '05 All Mining $1,405 Local govt $5,422 Retail Tr. $1,267 $5,324 Health care Real estate $1,145 Manufacturing $5,072 Finance & insur. $887

Construction $4,798 Admin & waste serv $797 Wholesale Tr. $768 Retail Tr. $4,605 Manufacturing $766 $4,090 Prof. & tech serv State govt $747 All Mining $2,891 Fed civilian govt $541

State govt $2,684 U.S.Military $468 Accom & food serv $461 Fed civilian govt $2,421 Information $325 Wholesale Tr. $2,394 Transport/warehsg $325 $2,246 Finance & insur. Other services $238 Transport/warehsg $2,081 Management serv $194 Educational serv $194 Accom & food serv $1,759 Net Farm $176 Real estate $1,593 Arts, entertmt, recre $145 $1,593 Admin & waste serv For., fishng serv $58 Net Farm $1,551 Utilities $57

Other services $1,477 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 U.S.Military $1,219 Information $984 Labor earnings growth is focused in two major service sectors –

Utilities $691 health care and professional and technical services, shown in blue –

Management serv $668 and in construction-related sectors – construction, real estate, and

Arts, entertmt, recre $579 finance and insurance, shown in red. Trade sectors – retail and

For., fishng serv $577 wholesale trade, shown in purple – are accounting for considerable

Educational serv $368 growth as well. The only other sectors in this top group of growth sectors is mining, shown in light brown, and local government, $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 shown in yellow.

YBP – Swanson – p. 61 Trends in Construction Activity in the Yellowstone Region-wide Construction Activity in the Yellowstone Region Region $1,200 $1,141

It is obvious that increased construction activity, accompanying the area’s growth in population, has become an increasingly important $1,000 $938 component in the economy of both the Yellowstone Region and larger 3-state region in which the Yellowstone Region is centered. It Lab. Inc. . $800 was possible to generally estimate construction labor earnings, or $725 onst what all workers employed in some aspect of area construction, at $638 the sector level for all 25 counties in order to gauge how this industry $600 $555 llars in C was changing under recent growth trends. It is estimated that these o $455 labor earnings reach a very high level in the last year of data, 2004, at $1.14 billion, with about 58 percent of this for workers in the 4 2000 D $400 regional center counties that totaled $662 million. The chart at the illions of upper right shows the rapid rise in construction labor earnings since M $200 hitting a low in 1988 at $455 million. Interestingly, 1988 was the year of the big fire at Yellowstone National Park. Construction labor earnings have increased almost every year on a yearly basis since. $0

4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 Construction labor earnings had risen to $938 million in 2000 and '7 '7 '7 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '0 '0 '0 Source: BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce have continued to grow.

The lower chart shows annual change in these earnings. There was Year-to-Year Change in Construction Lab. Earnings a very large gain in 1985, probably coinciding with several major $250 $202 construction projects in the region during that period, with sub-area $200 data indicating this spike occurred in the Jackson sub-area. The fall- $150 off in 1988 also occurred in the Jackson sub-area, probably $105 coinciding with the conclusion of this major construction project. $100 $82 $85 $46 $50 Year-to-year gains since 1989 have been much more proportional and steady. However, the most recent data are suggestive of some $0 '75 '76 '77 '78 '79 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 slowing in construction. Population growth is continuing and this -$50 will in all likelihood continue this fairly long run in construction growth. Such growth would most likely not be as constrained by -$100 continuing growth in the region as it may eventually be by rising -$150 interest rates and rising costs for construction materials. -$200 Construction costs have been rising fairly rapidly over this entire period, but certain materials, like concrete and asphalt, have -$250 -$242 increased in costs appreciably in the last few years.

YBP – Swanson – p. 62 Construction Activity by Yellowstone Sub-Area Construction Labor Earnings Change by Sub-Area

$120 The chart below shows construction labor earnings across the 25- $96 county region by sub-area. The Billings 5-county sub-area, shown $100 $89 $91 on the bottom, has the highest level of construction labor earnings. $80 The Bozeman 4-county area and Jackson 4-county area also have large construction earnings. But, the earnings overall are fairly well $60 distributed across the entire region. '80-'90 $40 $33 $28 $28 $22 $25 '90-'00 Construction Labor Earnings by Sub-Area $20 $14 $13 '00-'04 $1,200 $7 $6 $2 $0 Millions of 2000 Dollars

T a D D -$4a MT ea M I ea I ea ea $1,000 -$11ar , are e, ar are Ar Ar -$20 e, in ll -$13 ck, vi -$16 -$17 on lat co st Sub- Sub- Sub- Sub- w ls lo o gs Gal an Banno l Lander l in Bonne te -$40 l m Fal kson 4- l ton/ -$35 Yel Bi o $800 Jac Boze dah Poca ver I Ri -$60 -$57

$600 Percent Change in Construction Labor Earnings by Sub- 200% Area $400 164%

150% $200 119% 123% 104% 100% 90% $0 76% 69% '80-'90 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 63% '7 '7 '7 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '0 '0 '0 54% 50% '90-'00 Billings 5-co. area Bozeman 4-co. area Idaho Falls 5-co. area 33% 30% 20% Pocatello 5-co. area Jackson 4-co. area Riverton/Lander area 13% '00-'04 8% 0%

The next two charts show increases in construction labor earnings by D D a a rea MT rea , I rea , I -10%rea re , MT a a e -11% a a -13% n, - ll - wide b--21% ti ock b- o Are r A n- sub-area for recent periods, with the region center counties in each one a vi -28% c e o Su ne nn Su nd gi n Sub s Sub o -50%wst -40%gs Gall ll -39%Ba ll n 4- La lo n a e o / Re sub-area shown separately. Many of the sub-areas experienced l li ma Bon F l e at ks ton Ye Bi o c c r -53% Boz ah Ja declines in the ‘80s, markedly different from the huge increases that d Po ve I Ri occurred in all by one of the counties (Bonneville Co., ID) in the ‘90s. -100% And since 2000 through 2004, this pattern of growth is continuing. Gallatin County in particular is experiencing very high construction Construction labor earnings grew by 69 percent region-wide in the growth in this latter period. Growth in the ‘90s was highest in the ‘90s after falling by 13 percent in the ‘80s. Gallatin has experienced Jackson 4-county area with an increase of $96 million. the fastest growth, up by 164 percent in the ‘90s. Construction labor earnings more than doubled in three other counties in the ‘90s. YBP – Swanson – p. 63 Growing Area Economic Dependency on It is clear from this mapping that many counties in the 25-county Construction Activity Yellowstone Region have become very construction dependent, as measured in this way. Gallatin, Lincoln, Sublette, Teton (ID),

Bonneville, Teton (WY), Park (WY), and Madison (MT) all had Increased construction activity is normal for area’s with rising construction labor earnings greater than $1.3 million for every $20 populations. But areas with growing populations and increasing million in area personal income, placing them in the “high” and “very numbers of part-time residents who build vacation or second homes high” dependency levels, using this framework. in the area can have particularly high levels of construction when compared to the overall size of the area economy. The map below With increased growth comes more construction and some areas shows counties of the U.S. where construction labor earnings are can in fact become construction-driven from an economic standpoint. particularly large in relation to total area personal income, using data If they remain fairly heavily dependent on construction in this way, for 2003-04. The darkest red counties, the most construction their economies are vulnerable to factors that can quickly reduce dependent areas, are ones with construction labor earnings of $1.6 construction, like high interest rates and rising material costs. million and more for every $20 million in total personal income.

YBP – Swanson – p. 64 Growing Area Dependency on Income from Real Gallatin County in Montana and Teton County in Wyoming are Estate Sales and Development particularly dependent upon income from real estate sales and development, as components of area personal income. Four other

counties in the region (Yellowstone, Park, and Beaverhead in Another sector of the economy heavily influenced by area growth Montana and Lincoln in Wyoming) also have high relative and construction activity is the real estate sector. This sector dependencies on real estate related income. Park County, includes all income received by persons in an area tied to real estate Wyoming, has a moderately high dependency using this framework. sales and transactions, real estate development, and real estate It can be seen that the Yellowstone Region itself is one of only a leasing and rentals. The map below shows counties of the U.S. handful of areas across the U.S. with this type of dependency on real where real estate labor earnings are particularly large in relation to estate activity for income. And when combined with its similar total area personal income, using data for 2003-04. The darkest red dependency on construction labor earnings, it can be seen that the counties are the most real estate dependent areas, ones with real region has a relatively high overall dependency on construction and estate labor earnings of $0.6 million ($600,000) and more for every real estate activity as a source of area income. $20 million in total personal income.

YBP – Swanson – p. 65 Sector Labor Earnings Related to Travel and Tourism Activity Travel & Tourism Related Labor Earnings by Sub-Area $2,000

There is no sector of the economy called the “travel $1,800 and tourism” sector, but several sectors are closely tied to travel and tourism activity and can be used $1,600 as proxies for this industry. Under the SIC industry codes used prior to 2001, the sectors and sub- $1,400 sectors that can be used in partially isolating this industry are: the Retail Trade sector that includes all $1,200 types of retail trade sales and related employment and two sub-sectors within Services – motels, hotels $1,000 and other lodging places, and amusement and recreation services. Labor earnings data on these $800

sectors are used in estimating travel-related activity Millions of 2000 Dollars prior to 2001. For 2001 forward when the NAICS $600 industry codes were instituted, three major sectors are used: Retail Trade, Accommodation and Food $400 Services, and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Services. $200

$0 The table on the next page shows these labor '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99'00'01'02'03'04 earnings estimates for each county and each sub- Source: Swanson using BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce data and estimating suppressed data area of the Yellowstone Region for 1980, 1990, and 1999 through 2004, the latest available data. Billings 5-Co. Sub-Area Bozeman 4-co. Sub-Area Idaho Falls 5-co. Sub-Area Where data were suppressed by BEA, estimates Pocatello 5-co. Sub-Area Jackson 4-co. Sub-Area Riverton/Lander Sub-Area were made, largely by simply bridging missing data with reported data for previous and subsequent years. This type of bridging works well in developing Over this period these labor earnings tied closely to travel and tourism rose from $990 approximations for missing data when dealing with million in 1980 to $1.06 billion in 1990 and to $1.48 billion in 2000, all derived using sectors that don’t ordinarily see large swings from SIC data. By 2004 the combined labor earnings of these industries, using NAICS, year to year. The upper chart shows labor earnings reached $1.8 billion. So, beginning in the early ‘90s, there has been steady growth in totals for these sectors by sub-area for the period these employment earnings. However, other sectors of the economy grew 1980 to 2004. Sub-areas are color-coded, as was significantly during this period, meaning that the region itself and its various sub- done in previous charts. areas aren’t necessarily becoming more dependent upon travel and tourism economically overtime. This can be gauged by comparing travel and tourism related labor earnings to total workplace labor earnings overtime, as is done in the table for each county, sub-area and region as a whole.

YBP – Swanson – p. 66 Sub-Area Economic Dependence on Area Dependency on Travel & Tourism Overtime: Yellowstone Sub-Areas the Travel and Tourism Industry in the 30% Yellowstone Region

26% The upper chart shows shares of total workplace 25% labor earnings accounted for by these travel and tourism related sectors of the economy overtime for each sub-area. Although these sectors don’t 21% capture all effects on employment related to tourism, 20% they provide an indicator of the importance of travel 18% and tourism to the region’s economy at different points in time. 15% 14% 14% Region-wide, this dependency has actually changed very little overtime. It was 13.9 percent in 1980 14.0 percent in 1990, 13.9 percent in 200, with all of 10% these shares calculated using SIC code industries, and 14.1 percent in 2004 calculated using NAICS codes. So, while labor earnings closely tied to employment in segments of the economy heavily 5% influenced by travel and tourism activity have '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 Source: Swanson, using BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce data (share of workplace earnings by retail trade, increased considerably in recent years, reflecting accommodations and food service, and arts, entertainment and recreation services. growth in this industry, the overall economic dependency of the larger Yellowstone Region hasn’t growth. This can be attributed to off-setting growth Billings 5-Co. Sub-Area Bozeman 4-co. Sub-Area Idaho Falls 5-co. Sub-Area in other sectors of the region’s economy, including Pocatello 5-co. Sub-Area Jackson 4-co. Sub-Area Riverton/Lander Sub-Area construction and real estate, health care and Regionwide professional and technical services, local government, and mining. The other four sub-areas have dependencies on travel and tourism, again measured The Jackson sub-area has the highest dependence in this way, that are considerably lower than both the Jackson sub-area and the on travel-related employment earnings – as high as Bozeman sub-area. The Pocatello 5-county area has the lowest dependency with a 26 percent in 1990 and 21 percent more recently, share of 10 percent in 2004. The next lowest share is for the Idaho Falls sub-area at indicating this sub-area’s dependency on travel and about 12 percent. Next is the Billings sub-area with a share of 13.4 percent in 2004. tourism is gradually decreasing. The Bozeman 4- county area has the second highest dependency on A more precise estimation of area dependence on travel and tourism for employment travel and tourism – 18% in 2004. earnings can be gained by examining county-level data.

YBP – Swanson – p. 67 County-level Variations in some of the biggest increases in dependency on travel and tourism in the period from Dependency on Travel and Tourism in 1990 through 2004, suggesting those counties have had disproportionate increases in this segment of their economies. the Yellowstone Region Travel & Tourism Related Labor Earnings as Share of Total The chart at the right rank orders individual counties 27.5% in the Yellowstone Region by the share of travel- Teton, WY related labor earnings, calculated in this fashion, in Park, MT 20.9% 2004. Shares for each county in 1990 and 1980 Gallatin, MT 18.1% also are shown in the chart to see how these Carbon, MT 18.0% dependencies have been changing. Park Co., WY 17.4% Teton, ID 14.5% Teton County, Wyoming, has the single highest Madison, MT 14.4% dependency at 27.5 percent in 2004, but this is Regionwide 14.1% down from more than 35 percent in 1990. Park Fremont, WY 14.1% County, Montana, has the second highest Hot Springs, WY 13.7% dependency at 21 percent in 2004, down slightly Bear Lake, ID 13.5% from its share in 1990. Gallatin, Carbon, and Park Yellowstone, MT 13.1% County, Wyoming, all had dependencies greater '04 Bonneville, ID 12.8% than 17 percent. For both Gallatin and Carbon '90 Bannock, ID 11.7% Counties, these dependencies are down from '80 moderately higher levels in 1990. The share is Sublette, WY 11.5% moderately higher for Park County, Wyoming, Beaverhead, MT 11.4% suggestive of growing dependency on travel and Madison, ID 11.4% tourism by this county. Teton County, Idaho, and Sweet Grass, MT 10.3% Madison County, Montana, had dependencies Fremont, ID 9.6% above the region-wide average as well, both at over Lincoln, WY 8.3% 14 percent. Franklin, ID 8.2% Jefferson, ID 8.1% With overall region-wide dependency staying Bingham, ID 7.1% roughly constant overtime, there is a mix of change Stillwater, MT 6.2% among counties in the region, with some increasing Caribou, ID 5.1% their dependencies on travel and tourism and some 3.4% decreasing. Sweet Grass, Montana, had the largest Clark, ID decrease in dependency, probably resulting from a 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% large increase in workplace labor earnings in other Source: Swanson, using U.S. Dept. of Commerce data (travel & tourism sectors are: retail trade, accommodation & food sectors of its economy, most notable, mining with services, and arts, entertainment, & recreation services (NAICS), and retail trade, lodging, and amusement & recreation services (SIC) expansion of the Stillwater Mine into that county. Hot Springs and Fremont Counties in Wyoming had

YBP – Swanson – p. 68 Travel & Tourism Related Labor Earnings for Counties in the 25-County Yellowstone Region

SIC Codes - 1980 - 2000 NAICS - 2001 to 2004 Millions of 2000 Dollars 1980 1990 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 NAICS Yellowstone, MT (Billings) $269.8 $257.2 $340.4 $356.1 $391.0 $399.3 $398.3 $408.1 2001-04 $150.9 59% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 15.2% 14.0% 13.4% 13.5% 13.8% 13.8% 13.3% 13.1% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $147.7 $145.8 $197.8 $206.0 $268.9 $270.3 $266.7 $272.8 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $116.1 $96.6 $122.3 $129.6 $97.1 $102.2 $101.4 $103.5 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $6.0 $14.8 $20.3 $20.6 $25.1 $26.9 $30.3 $31.8 Arts, entertainmt & recre Stillwater, MT $6.4 $6.6 $7.4 $8.1 $8.5 $8.4 $9.1 $10.2 $3.6 55% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 15.3% 8.9% 5.9% 5.2% 4.3% 5.3% 5.9% 6.2% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $3.8 $3.9 $3.0 $3.2 $5.6 $5.8 $5.7 $6.1 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $2.3 $2.4 $3.9 $4.4 $2.6 $2.2 $2.7 $3.3 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.3 $0.3 $0.5 $0.5 $0.3 $0.3 $0.7 $0.9 Arts, entertainmt & recre Carbon, MT $8.9 $11.2 $16.9 $15.5 $17.4 $16.7 $17.4 $17.2 $6.0 54% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 17.2% 19.9% 21.3% 20.3% 20.2% 21.1% 19.8% 18.0% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $3.1 $3.3 $4.6 $3.8 $8.3 $7.5 $7.5 $7.4 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $5.5 $5.9 $10.0 $9.5 $6.5 $6.6 $6.9 $7.0 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.3 $2.0 $2.3 $2.2 $2.5 $2.6 $3.0 $2.8 Arts, entertainmt & recre Sweet Grass, MT $6.0 $5.9 $6.7 $6.4 $7.0 $7.2 $7.7 $7.8 $1.9 32% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 22.7% 23.2% 19.1% 18.5% 15.0% 10.8% 11.0% 10.3% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $2.9 $3.4 $3.9 $3.5 $5.0 $5.1 $5.3 $5.2 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $2.9 $2.4 $2.7 $2.6 $1.5 $1.7 $2.0 $2.0 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.2 $0.1 $0.2 $0.3 $0.4 $0.4 $0.5 $0.6 Arts, entertainmt & recre Park Co., WY $60.1 $47.6 $64.6 $64.4 $84.2 $84.6 $89.3 $89.3 $41.6 87% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 16.1% 14.3% 14.7% 14.9% 17.6% 17.6% 18.1% 17.4% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $24.6 $20.8 $27.1 $26.0 $42.6 $39.4 $43.4 $44.4 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $35.0 $25.0 $35.0 $35.8 $27.5 $29.4 $30.4 $29.0 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.6 $1.8 $2.5 $2.6 $14.1 $15.7 $15.6 $15.8 Arts, entertainmt & recre Billings 5-Co. Sub-Area $351.2 $328.6 $436.0 $450.6 $508.1 $516.3 $521.9 $532.6 $204.0 62% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 15.5% 14.1% 13.6% 13.5% 13.9% 14.1% 13.7% 13.4% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $182.1 $177.2 $236.4 $242.5 $330.4 $328.1 $328.5 $335.9 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $161.8 $132.3 $173.8 $181.9 $135.3 $142.2 $143.3 $144.8 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $7.3 $19.0 $25.8 $26.2 $42.4 $46.0 $50.1 $51.8 Arts, entertainmt & recre Gallatin, MT (Bozeman) $98.3 $130.6 $226.9 $239.5 $268.4 $283.0 $294.7 $307.7 $177.1 136% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 19.7% 19.1% 18.9% 18.6% 18.9% 19.5% 18.6% 18.1% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $53.5 $64.7 $114.8 $117.7 $147.7 $159.3 $167.6 $182.9 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $43.2 $58.4 $97.9 $107.4 $83.8 $86.7 $89.2 $89.3 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $1.6 $7.6 $14.2 $14.4 $37.0 $37.0 $37.9 $35.5 Arts, entertainmt & recre Park, MT $23.8 $27.3 $40.0 $40.3 $39.0 $40.5 $40.7 $41.4 $14.1 52% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 15.0% 21.9% 22.3% 23.4% 21.2% 21.7% 21.3% 20.9% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $10.2 $10.0 $12.3 $12.9 $20.1 $20.8 $20.4 $20.2 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $13.0 $15.8 $25.7 $25.5 $15.9 $16.5 $16.6 $17.1 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.6 $1.5 $2.0 $1.9 $3.0 $3.2 $3.7 $4.0 Arts, entertainmt & recre

YBP – Swanson – p. 69 Travel & Tourism Related Labor Earnings for Counties in the 25-County Yellowstone Region

SIC Codes - 1980 - 2000 NAICS - 2001 to 2004 Millions of 2000 Dollars 1980 1990 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 NAICS Madison, MT $6.7 $7.8 $10.1 $11.7 $10.3 $11.5 $12.6 $12.9 $5.1 66% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 16.4% 15.3% 15.4% 17.6% 13.1% 14.9% 15.6% 14.4% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $2.9 $3.5 $3.7 $4.7 $5.2 $6.1 $6.3 $6.2 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $3.7 $3.9 $5.5 $6.2 $4.1 $4.4 $4.7 $4.9 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.1 $0.4 $0.8 $0.9 $1.1 $0.9 $1.6 $1.8 Arts, entertainmt & recre Beaverhead, MT $13.4 $11.6 $14.9 $14.9 $16.0 $15.6 $15.6 $15.7 $4.1 35% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 15.8% 11.7% 12.0% 11.9% 12.3% 12.2% 11.6% 11.4% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $6.7 $6.4 $7.0 $6.7 $9.8 $9.5 $9.5 $9.7 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $6.5 $4.9 $6.8 $7.2 $4.7 $4.6 $4.7 $4.8 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.2 $0.3 $1.0 $1.0 $1.4 $1.4 $1.4 $1.2 Arts, entertainmt & recre Bozeman 4-co. Sub-Area $142.2 $177.3 $291.9 $306.4 $333.6 $350.6 $363.6 $377.6 $200.3 113% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 18.2% 18.5% 18.6% 18.5% 18.4% 19.0% 18.3% 17.8% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $73.3 $84.6 $137.9 $142.0 $182.7 $195.8 $203.8 $218.9 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $66.5 $83.0 $135.9 $146.2 $108.4 $112.3 $115.2 $116.2 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $2.5 $9.7 $18.0 $18.2 $42.5 $42.5 $44.6 $42.5 Arts, entertainmt & recre Bonneville, ID (Idaho Falls) $119.4 $141.8 $177.9 $184.0 $206.4 $215.1 $226.2 $232.8 $91.0 64% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 13.3% 12.5% 11.9% 11.8% 12.8% 13.0% 13.1% 12.8% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $75.8 $90.6 $108.2 $113.8 $154.8 $160.1 $169.3 $173.4 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $41.2 $47.4 $65.4 $65.3 $39.5 $41.2 $43.3 $46.8 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $2.4 $3.8 $4.4 $4.9 $12.1 $13.8 $13.6 $12.6 Arts, entertainmt & recre Madison, ID $20.8 $23.7 $30.9 $31.8 $39.0 $41.9 $42.7 $43.8 $20.2 85% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 10.4% 10.1% 9.7% 10.0% 11.8% 11.4% 11.8% 11.4% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $14.5 $14.6 $19.4 $19.4 $30.0 $32.3 $33.2 $33.7 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $6.1 $8.9 $11.0 $12.0 $7.4 $7.7 $7.7 $8.1 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.2 $0.1 $0.4 $0.4 $1.6 $1.8 $1.8 $2.0 Arts, entertainmt & recre Jefferson, ID $8.6 $8.8 $12.4 $12.2 $14.7 $15.0 $15.5 $16.5 $7.7 88% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 7.9% 6.9% 7.3% 7.2% 8.1% 7.7% 8.3% 8.1% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $4.6 $5.4 $5.6 $5.4 $11.9 $11.8 $12.1 $12.9 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $3.6 $2.9 $5.9 $6.0 $1.3 $1.3 $1.5 $1.7 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.4 $0.5 $0.9 $0.9 $1.6 $1.9 $1.8 $2.0 Arts, entertainmt & recre Fremont, ID $10.4 $9.6 $10.9 $9.8 $10.9 $11.2 $10.8 $10.9 $1.4 14% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 10.9% 8.5% 10.1% 9.3% 10.5% 9.8% 10.4% 9.6% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $5.3 $5.0 $4.6 $4.0 $6.8 $6.7 $6.7 $6.8 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $4.9 $4.3 $6.0 $5.5 $3.6 $3.9 $3.5 $3.4 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.2 $0.2 $0.4 $0.3 $0.5 $0.6 $0.7 $0.7 Arts, entertainmt & recre

YBP – Swanson – p. 70 Travel & Tourism Related Labor Earnings for Counties in the 25-County Yellowstone Region

SIC Codes - 1980 - 2000 NAICS - 2001 to 2004 Millions of 2000 Dollars 1980 1990 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 NAICS Clark, ID $1.2 $0.5 $0.7 $0.7 $0.6 $0.6 $0.6 $0.6 $0.1 16% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 8.1% 1.7% 3.2% 3.1% 2.4% 3.0% 3.1% 3.4% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $0.8 $0.2 $0.4 $0.4 $0.4 $0.4 $0.5 $0.5 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $0.5 $0.3 $0.3 $0.3 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Arts, entertainmt & recre Idaho Falls 5-co. Sub-Area $160.5 $184.3 $232.8 $238.6 $271.5 $283.7 $295.8 $304.7 $120.3 65% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 12.2% 11.2% 11.0% 11.0% 12.0% 12.1% 12.3% 12.0% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $100.9 $115.8 $138.2 $143.0 $203.9 $211.3 $221.7 $227.3 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $56.4 $63.8 $88.6 $89.1 $51.8 $54.3 $56.2 $60.1 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $3.2 $4.7 $6.0 $6.5 $15.8 $18.1 $17.9 $17.3 Arts, entertainmt & recre Bannock, ID (Pocatello) $110.3 $100.2 $137.2 $132.5 $144.6 $143.1 $146.0 $146.7 $46.5 46% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 12.6% 12.3% 12.4% 11.8% 12.7% 12.4% 12.4% 11.7% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $66.6 $59.6 $79.7 $76.7 $104.0 $103.1 $104.9 $104.9 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $41.1 $37.6 $53.6 $51.7 $34.3 $33.5 $35.1 $35.7 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $2.6 $3.0 $3.9 $4.1 $6.4 $6.5 $6.1 $6.1 Arts, entertainmt & recre Bingham, ID $28.5 $28.8 $34.0 $34.1 $38.6 $39.0 $40.0 $39.2 $10.4 36% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 7.7% 5.6% 7.0% 6.8% 7.7% 7.3% 7.9% 7.1% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $15.6 $15.4 $17.3 $18.0 $31.6 $31.7 $32.4 $31.6 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $12.7 $12.9 $15.4 $15.2 $5.9 $6.0 $6.2 $6.2 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.3 $0.5 $1.3 $1.0 $1.2 $1.2 $1.3 $1.4 Arts, entertainmt & recre Caribou, ID $10.1 $7.4 $6.8 $6.8 $8.1 $8.4 $8.3 $8.2 $0.8 11% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 5.8% 5.9% 4.4% 4.5% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $5.8 $4.1 $3.2 $3.3 $6.7 $7.0 $6.9 $7.0 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $4.2 $3.2 $3.5 $3.4 $1.2 $1.2 $1.1 $1.0 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 Arts, entertainmt & recre Franklin, ID $7.5 $8.5 $8.6 $8.7 $10.1 $10.2 $10.1 $10.0 $1.5 18% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 12.8% 12.6% 8.8% 9.4% 9.6% 10.6% 9.7% 8.2% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $5.3 $5.4 $4.6 $4.6 $8.0 $8.4 $8.2 $8.2 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $2.0 $2.9 $3.6 $3.6 $1.6 $1.5 $1.4 $1.5 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.2 $0.2 $0.3 $0.5 $0.4 $0.3 $0.4 $0.4 Arts, entertainmt & recre Bear Lake, ID $7.9 $6.2 $8.0 $7.8 $7.7 $7.8 $7.6 $7.5 $1.3 21% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 17.7% 18.2% 16.3% 16.3% 14.7% 15.5% 14.1% 13.5% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $4.8 $3.1 $3.9 $3.8 $6.0 $6.1 $5.8 $5.8 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $3.0 $2.7 $3.9 $3.7 $1.6 $1.5 $1.5 $1.5 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.1 $0.4 $0.3 $0.3 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 $0.2 Arts, entertainmt & recre Pocatello 5-co. Sub-Area $164.4 $151.0 $194.6 $190.0 $209.1 $208.5 $211.9 $211.7 $60.7 40% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 10.8% 9.7% 10.3% 9.9% 10.7% 10.5% 10.6% 9.9% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $98.1 $87.6 $108.6 $106.4 $156.2 $156.4 $158.3 $157.4 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $63.0 $59.2 $80.0 $77.6 $44.6 $43.7 $45.3 $45.9 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $3.3 $4.2 $6.0 $6.0 $8.3 $8.5 $8.3 $8.3 Arts, entertainmt & recre

YBP – Swanson – p. 71 Travel & Tourism Related Labor Earnings for Counties in the 25-County Yellowstone Region

SIC Codes - 1980 - 2000 NAICS - 2001 to 2004 Millions of 2000 Dollars 1980 1990 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 NAICS Teton, WY (Jackson) $63.9 $136.5 $178.8 $186.7 $211.9 $218.0 $224.2 $237.2 $100.8 74% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 31.7% 38.3% 27.0% 27.8% 27.5% 27.3% 27.0% 27.5% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $15.4 $32.9 $51.9 $54.0 $69.5 $64.7 $61.4 $61.6 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $41.2 $63.7 $101.6 $105.4 $95.6 $120.1 $126.7 $137.4 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $7.3 $39.9 $25.3 $27.3 $46.9 $33.2 $36.1 $38.2 Arts, entertainmt & recre Teton, ID $3.0 $3.5 $7.2 $7.1 $8.8 $9.5 $9.6 $10.8 $7.3 210% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 10.3% 14.5% 15.9% 14.5% 15.8% 16.0% 16.0% 14.5% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $1.6 $1.3 $2.9 $2.6 $5.3 $5.4 $5.4 $6.1 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $1.3 $2.1 $4.2 $4.3 $3.1 $3.5 $3.6 $3.9 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.2 $0.5 $0.6 $0.6 $0.8 Arts, entertainmt & recre Sublette, WY $9.9 $6.6 $11.7 $12.0 $15.6 $16.2 $17.0 $18.2 $11.5 174% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 12.6% 9.3% 13.8% 13.1% 14.6% 13.6% 12.4% 11.5% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $6.6 $3.9 $5.7 $5.8 $8.3 $8.0 $8.4 $8.8 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $3.2 $2.3 $5.7 $5.7 $4.9 $5.2 $5.5 $6.3 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.1 $0.4 $0.3 $0.6 $2.3 $3.0 $3.1 $3.1 Arts, entertainmt & recre Lincoln, WY $17.4 $16.5 $18.6 $18.1 $21.4 $20.9 $22.0 $22.4 $5.9 36% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 8.6% 9.4% 9.2% 9.1% 9.9% 9.1% 8.1% 8.3% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $9.8 $9.8 $10.8 $10.3 $13.7 $13.0 $14.2 $14.6 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $7.5 $5.9 $7.5 $7.5 $5.1 $4.8 $4.8 $4.7 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.2 $0.8 $0.4 $0.3 $2.6 $3.1 $3.0 $3.1 Arts, entertainmt & recre Jackson 4-co. Sub-Area $94.3 $163.1 $216.3 $223.9 $257.7 $264.6 $272.9 $288.6 $125.5 77% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 18.4% 26.0% 21.8% 22.1% 22.4% 21.9% 21.0% 21.1% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $33.4 $47.9 $71.4 $72.7 $96.8 $91.2 $89.4 $91.2 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $53.1 $74.0 $118.9 $122.8 $108.8 $133.5 $140.7 $152.3 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $7.7 $41.2 $26.0 $28.4 $52.2 $39.9 $42.8 $45.2 Arts, entertainmt & recre Fremont, WY $67.1 $47.1 $65.0 $63.7 $79.1 $76.7 $75.0 $77.6 $30.5 65% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 10.9% 12.2% 13.2% 12.6% 15.1% 14.3% 14.4% 14.1% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $40.3 $26.9 $39.1 $35.6 $53.7 $49.2 $47.2 $48.3 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $26.1 $19.1 $24.3 $26.4 $18.2 $17.4 $17.5 $18.9 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.7 $1.1 $1.6 $1.7 $7.3 $10.1 $10.3 $10.4 Arts, entertainmt & recre Hot Springs, WY $9.9 $5.5 $7.4 $6.7 $12.3 $9.7 $9.3 $9.3 $3.8 69% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 13.1% 9.1% 12.6% 10.7% 17.0% 14.6% 14.1% 13.7% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $5.2 $2.2 $2.8 $2.3 $6.5 $3.9 $3.7 $3.6 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $4.4 $3.0 $4.2 $4.0 $3.2 $3.1 $3.1 $3.2 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $0.4 $0.3 $0.4 $0.4 $2.6 $2.6 $2.5 $2.5 Arts, entertainmt & recre Riverton/Lander Sub-Area $77.0 $52.6 $72.4 $70.4 $91.4 $86.4 $84.3 $86.9 $34.2 65% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 11.1% 11.8% 13.1% 12.4% 15.3% 14.4% 14.4% 14.1% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $45.5 $29.1 $41.9 $37.9 $60.1 $53.1 $50.9 $51.9 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $30.5 $22.1 $28.5 $30.5 $21.4 $20.5 $20.6 $22.1 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $1.1 $1.4 $2.0 $2.1 $9.8 $12.7 $12.8 $12.8 Arts, entertainmt & recre

YBP – Swanson – p. 72 Travel & Tourism Related Labor Earnings for Counties in the 25-County Yellowstone Region

SIC Codes - 1980 - 2000 NAICS - 2001 to 2004 Millions of 2000 Dollars 1980 1990 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 NAICS

Regionwide $989.5 $1,056.9 $1,444.0 $1,479.8 $1,671.5 $1,710.1 $1,750.4 $1,802.0 $745.2 71% Share of Total Workplace Earnings 13.9% 14.0% 14.0% 13.9% 14.6% 14.7% 14.5% 14.1% Retail less food stores & eating plcs $533.2 $542.2 $734.4 $744.5 $1,030.2 $1,035.9 $1,052.6 $1,082.6 Retail Trade Food stores, Eating places, Hotels $431.3 $434.4 $625.8 $648.0 $470.2 $506.4 $521.2 $541.4 Accom & food serv Amusmt & recreation serv $25.0 $80.2 $83.8 $87.3 $171.1 $167.8 $176.5 $178.0 Arts, entertainmt & recre

Note: Data are estimated where they are suppressed or withheld.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce

YBP – Swanson – p. 73 Area Trends in Mining and Oil and Gas Mining Industry Labor Earnings among Rocky Mt. West Exploration and Extraction $4,000 States

$3,607 Colorado Much of the economy of the larger Yellowstone Region is growing $3,500 because of more people moving to the region, spurring housing growth and construction, while bringing more permanent residents $3,000 Wyomin and more income to area communities. But some areas within it g are also seeing increased activity in oil and gas exploration and $2,500 Utah drilling and other types of mining, including phosphate mining in $2,199 $2,119 southern portions of the region. A table has been produced to $2,000 $1,977 show at the county level data on employment earnings within the Montana mining industry as a whole overtime, as well as for oil and gas, $1,500 $1,466 $1,471 $1,388 which is a sub-sector of the mining industry. However, data are Millions of 2000 Dollars Idaho somewhat sketchy because of extensive suppression whereby $1,000 $1,054 data are withheld or not published for proprietary reasons. Maps $777 $627 have been produced using this sketchy data in locating where the $500 oil and gas industry is mainly located. $146 $0 Larger trends in these industries can be gained by examining labor '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 earnings for mining and oil and gas at the state level for the various Source: BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Rocky Mountain West states. The top chart shows labor earnings for the entire mining industries for each of the five states. And the lower chart shows labor earnings for the oil and gas sub-sector of Oil & Gas Industry Labor Earnings: Rocky Mountain States mining (Idaho is excluded because oil and gas extraction is very $3,000 minimal in the state and state-level data are suppressed). $2,500 $2,525 Colorad The mining industry is clearly seeing increased activity, starting in o 1998 but mainly more recently, with this recent growth spurred by $2,000 Wyomin g increased activity in oil and gas. Crude oil prices rose from around $1,680 $30 a barrel early in 2004 to over $60 by mid-year in 2005, before $1,500 Utah falling back below $60 late in 2006 and again rising more recently. $1,213 Industry-wide labor earnings in mining stood at $3.5 billion in 1990. $1,000 Montana $885 By 2004 these had risen to $7.3 billion across the five states. Oil Millions of 2000 Dollars $774 $718 $500 $541 and gas labor earnings rose from $1.2 billion in 1990 to $3.7 billion $428 $307 in 2004 for the five-state region. Colorado had the highest industry $256 $197 activity with $2.5 billion in oil and gas labor earnings, followed by $0 Wyoming with $715 million. Oil and gas labor earnings in Montana '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 and Utah totaled about $200 million in 2004. Source: BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce (Idaho has minimal oil and gas activity)

YBP – Swanson – p. 74

YBP – Swanson – p. 75 Area Economic Dependence on Mining Industry Labor Earnings Mining Labor Earnings Shares of Personal Income and All Workplace Labor Earnings: Rockies

5.0% Some areas of the larger Rocky Mountain West are narrowly dependent upon mining activity or upon sub-sectors of the mining industry like oil and 4.5% gas extraction. However, the larger five-state Rockies where population and economic expansion has been focused for much of the last fifteen 4.0% years, have a relatively small or only moderate dependency upon this industry, in spite of recent expansions. The chart at the right shows labor 3.5% earnings for the entire mining industry of the five-state region as shares of 3.1% total workplace labor earnings and total personal income (T.P.I.). 3.0% 2.8%

2.5% Mining and oil and gas activity in particular had fallen to relatively 2.5% low levels by the early 1990s, falling from relatively high levels in 2.2% 1.9% the early ‘80s (not shown in the chart). In 1990 mining industry 2.0% labor earnings accounted for 2.8 percent of all workplace or 1.5% employment labor earnings in the region and 2.3 percent of all 1.5% personal income. By the end of the ‘90s, after significant growth in many other sectors of the economy and stagnant growth in mining, 1.0% mining’s share of workplace earnings had fallen to 1.9 percent and as a share of total personal income to 1.5 percent. 0.5%

0.0% With rapidly escalating energy prices and increased drilling and '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 exploration across the region, the mining industry’s share of total workplace labor earnings had risen back to 3.1 percent and of total Mining Labor Earnings Share of T.P.I. personal income to 2.5 percent by 2005. While not such a huge Mining Labor Earnings Share of All Workplace Earnings factor region-wide economically, the increases in mining and oil and gas activity in recent years are clearly focused in some areas, Not shown in the data in the table are labor earnings for mining in both including several counties within the 25-county Yellowstone Stillwater and Sweet Grass Counties, Montana, where the large Region, as indicated in the previous mapping of oil and gas activity Stillwater platinum-palladium mine is located. And data also are in the U.S. overtime and as shown in the table that follows. suppressed in some of the counties in Idaho in the southern portion of the Yellowstone Region where phosphate mining is concentrated. Using available unsuppressed data for the 2002 through 2004 This makes it very difficult to fully gauge the relative importance of the period, mining had it greatest presence in Yellowstone County with mining industry for the various sub-area economies of the region. But, labor earnings of $82 million in 2004. It also was sizeable in suffice it to say, mining continues to be important in many areas of the Lincoln County, Wyoming, at $56 million in 2004 and in Sublette region. County, Wyoming, at $48 million, also Fremont at $42 million.

YBP – Swanson – p. 76 Mining Industry and Oil and Gas Labor Earnings for Counties in eth 25-County Yellowstone Region

Available Labor Earnings data for the Mining Sector and for the Oil and Gas Sub-sector of Mining (in nominal or non-inflation adjusted dollars)

Thous. of Dollars (nominal) 1980 1981 1982 1987 1988 1989 1997 1998 1999 2002 2003 2004 Yellowstone, MT (Billings) All Mining $18,745 $29,758 $33,472 $19,984 $22,889 $22,175 $36,882 56516 $57,038 $79,159 $60,563 $81,915 Oil & Gas $14,832 $24,427 $26,565 $12,769 $14,055 $17,622 $34,600 26716 $25,671 (D) (D) $58,382 Stillwater, MT All Mining $984 $481 $502 (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) Oil & Gas (D) (D) (D) (L) (L) $181 $251 152 $250 (D) (D) (D) Carbon, MT All Mining $2,975 $4,048 $1,784 $1,842 $2,084 $1,377 $2,100 1815 $1,900 $1,734 $1,577 $2,167 Oil & Gas $1,910 $3,544 $1,199 (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) $86 $111 $120 Sweet Grass, MT All Mining $145 $173 $121 $94 $133 $142 $171 104 $170 (D) (D) (D) Oil & Gas $145 $173 $121 $94 $133 $142 $171 104 $170 $117 $82 $91 Park Co., WY All Mining $33,677 $44,263 $42,705 $33,726 $32,873 $33,355 $33,156 32247 $31,253 $40,695 $38,315 $37,002 Oil & Gas (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) $23,085 $19,491 $15,208 Gallatin, MT (Bozeman) All Mining $3,479 $3,216 $2,737 $4,788 $11,184 $12,923 $3,987 3589 $3,641 $3,505 $1,964 $2,783 Oil & Gas (D) (D) (D) $580 $1,011 (D) $519 254 $379 $778 $269 $334 Park, MT All Mining $602 $683 $434 $808 $600 $3,738 $1,672 1234 $824 $181 $141 $182 Oil & Gas $578 $465 $340 (D) (D) (D) (D) (L) (L) (L) $0 (L) Madison, MT All Mining (D) (D) $4,793 (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) $1,241 $647 $748 Oil & Gas $171 $170 $106 $57 (L) (L) $102 127 $139 (L) (L) (L) Beaverhead, MT All Mining $1,123 $1,393 (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) Oil & Gas $753 $770 $1,004 $127 $94 $79 $104 63 $103 (L) (L) (L) Bonneville, ID (Idaho Falls) All Mining $1,786 $2,702 $2,946 $1,203 $1,169 (L) $866 (D) (D) $841 (D) $685 Oil & Gas $1,349 $2,026 (D) $636 $654 $0 $0 0 $0 (L) (L) (L) Madison, ID All Mining $178 $152 $111 $0 $744 $69 $214 (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) Oil & Gas $178 $148 $111 $0 $744 $69 (D) 314 $502 (D) $73 $83 Jefferson, ID All Mining $125 $141 $253 $453 $360 $412 $1,264 (D) (D) $147 $117 $135 Oil & Gas $110 $98 (D) (D) (D) (D) $0 0 $0 (D) $73 $83 Fremont, ID All Mining $133 $142 $137 $107 $111 $125 $1,920 (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) Oil & Gas $110 $122 $127 $0 (L) $0 $0 0 $0 (D) $73 $83 Clark, ID All Mining $310 $579 $112 (D) (D) (D) $1,014 (D) (D) (D) $117 $135 Oil & Gas $0 $283 (L) $0 $0 $0 $0 0 $0 (D) $73 $83

YBP – Swanson – p. 77 Mining Industry and Oil and Gas Labor Earnings for Counties in eth 25-County Yellowstone Region

Available Labor Earnings data for the Mining Sector and for the Oil and Gas Sub-sector of Mining (in nominal or non-inflation adjusted dollars)

Thous. of Dollars (nominal) 1980 1981 1982 1987 1988 1989 1997 1998 1999 2002 2003 2004 Bannock, ID (Pocatello) All Mining $1,073 $997 $1,054 $736 $244 $157 $1,185 (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) Oil & Gas $609 $594 $627 $326 (L) (L) $0 0 (D) $362 $765 $878 Bingham, ID All Mining (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) $2,930 (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) Oil & Gas $239 $249 $329 $0 $0 $0 $0 0 $0 $50 $73 $84 Caribou, ID All Mining $30,563 $32,528 $20,728 $20,926 $20,641 $17,889 $25,944 29976 $25,279 $20,196 (D) (D) Oil & Gas (D) (D) $315 $0 $0 $0 $0 0 $0 (D) $73 $83 Franklin, ID All Mining (D) (D) $239 (D) $1,009 (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) Oil & Gas (D) (D) (D) $0 (D) $284 $0 0 $0 (D) $73 $83 Bear Lake, ID All Mining $1,627 $3,292 (D) $78 $281 $53 $0 0 $0 $148 $118 (D) Oil & Gas $1,595 $3,265 (D) $0 (D) $0 $0 0 $0 $50 $73 $83 Teton, WY (Jackson) All Mining $6,936 $7,687 $9,506 $755 $977 $1,559 $1,759 2035 $2,512 (D) (D) (D) Oil & Gas $6,936 $7,687 $9,506 (D) $922 (D) $1,759 2035 $2,512 (D) (D) (D) Teton, ID All Mining (D) (D) $265 $0 $0 $0 $0 0 (D) (D) (D) (D) Oil & Gas (D) (D) $265 $0 $0 $0 $0 0 (D) (D) $73 $83 Sublette, WY All Mining $8,279 $11,463 $11,522 $12,782 $12,886 $16,554 $16,424 14867 $13,604 $29,277 $38,914 $48,235 Oil & Gas $8,255 $11,449 (D) $11,095 $11,268 $14,968 $16,410 (D) (D) $13,641 $15,168 (D) Lincoln, WY All Mining $38,545 $45,173 $38,635 $24,890 $25,587 $25,353 $34,543 26097 $26,818 $42,964 $48,372 $56,241 Oil & Gas $10,276 $11,886 $8,847 $2,115 $3,041 $2,474 (D) (D) $7,766 $14,359 $19,667 $23,808 Fremont, WY All Mining $119,651 $106,784 $86,999 $21,746 $20,028 $17,343 $30,839 30155 $25,611 $33,532 $30,973 $42,012 Oil & Gas $31,694 $43,385 $42,130 $16,004 $14,187 $13,346 $19,537 17798 $12,111 (D) (D) (D) Hot Springs, WY All Mining $7,722 $10,536 $11,103 $8,951 $8,734 $9,096 $5,175 5199 (D) (D) $12,855 $13,643 Oil & Gas $7,450 $10,239 $10,689 $8,478 (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D) (D)

Note 1: "D" indicates the data are withheld or suppressed for proprietary reasons. "L" indicates that the data represent small or "low" amounts. Note 2: Figures shown in "red" are estimates only made by Swanson where data were otherwise suppressed.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Commerce

YBP – Swanson – p. 78 Financial Conditions and Trends for Agriculture 25-County Region Ag Marketing Receipts by Type in the Yellowstone Region $1,600

Income and expenditure patterns for area agricultural producers $1,400 $1,377 are shown in the chart below, relating year-to-year estimates for $1,200

total cash marketing receipts to annual production costs. Income llars $1,027 o $1,000 by ag producers from government farm programs and other $857 $800 sources also is shown. In recent years farmers and ranchers in the 2000 D 25-county region have produced livestock and crops valued at $1.5 $649 $600

bil. annually (2000 inflation-adjusted dollars), but expend almost illions of M the same amount in producing these products. Area agriculture $400 became very unprofitable from the late ‘70s to late ‘80s. While $200 improving in the ‘90s, year-to-year profitability is tenuous in many areas, creating considerable instability for area ag producers and $0 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 businesses who sell to or buy from these producers. '7 '7 '7 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '0 '0 '0 Source: BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce Ag Income & Production Expenses in the 25-County Region Livestock Mktgs Crop Mktgs $2,500

$2,176 $2,000 Region-wide Ag Net Farm Income Overtime $700 $1,721 $655

llars $600 o $1,500 $1,506

$500 2000 D of

s $405 $1,000 $400

$300 Million

$500 $200 $214

Millions of 2000 Dollars $100 $75 $73 $0 $31 $0 4 2 4 6 8 0 2 0 2 4 '7 '76 '78 '80 '8 '8 '8 '8 '9 '9 '94 '96 '98 '0 '0 '0 4 6 8 0 2 -$554 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 Source: BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce '7 '7 '7 '8 '8 '8 '8 '8 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '0 '0 '0 -$100 -$108 -$146 -$147 All Cash Mktg Recpt All Prod. Expenses -$200 Govt. Paymts Miscel. Income With Other Inc. Ag Marketings Only

YBP – Swanson – p. 79 Farm and Ranch Size Distribution in the Farm & Ranch Land Acreage by Farm Size (ranges), 1997 & Yellowstone Region 2002: 25-County Yellowstone Region

13,098,778 The 25-county Yellowstone Region contains about 68.6 thousand 2000 ac. & more 13,180,959 square miles of land or about 44 million acres. Of these, 42.5 1,000 to 1,999 ac. 1,589,524 thousand square miles or 27 million acres (62 percent of the total 1,756,105 969,304 land area) are in some type of federal public land ownership and 500 to 999 ac. 1,125,181 management, including national forest lands, national park lands, 493,462 and BLM lands. Of the remaining 26 thousand square miles or 260 to 499 ac. 608,423 '02 16.7 million acres, most are contained with “farms and ranches” as 180 to 259 ac. 184,275 defined by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. There are more 199,582 '97 218,016 than 15,000 farms and ranches region-wide and the chart below 100 to 179 ac. 211,864 shows the number of these by size in acres. 108,555 50 to 99 ac. 103,159 Number of Farms & Ranches by Size (acres), 1997 & 2002: 25- 94,462 County Yellowstone Region 10 to 49 ac. 85,346

8,701 1,575 1 to 9 ac. 6,616 2000 ac. & more 1,567

1,130 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 1,000 to 1,999 ac. 1,252 Source: U.S. Census of Agriculture 500 to 999 ac. 1,374 1,596 1,375 '02 260 to 499 ac. 1,689 While population growth in the region may lead to some fragmentation in the region’s ag land base, most of its ag land is 180 to 259 ac. 859 929 '97 contained in relatively large operations.

100 to 179 ac. 1,591 1,550 Ag Land Shares by Farm/Ranch Size: 25-County Region 1,542 50 to 99 ac. 1,461 2.4% 1 to 49 ac. 10 to 49 ac. 3,903 2.9% 3,502 50 to 99 ac. 5.8% 1 to 9 ac. 1,969 1,495 100 to 259 ac. 9.5% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 260 to 499 ac. Source: U.S. Census of Agriculture 500 to 999 ac.

1,000 to 1,999 ac. There are a large number of farms under 50 acres in size (5,870 or 2000 ac. & more 38 percent of the total). But a small number of large farms contain 78.1% most of the farm and ranch land. The 1,575 farms and ranches in the region greater than 2,000 acres in size contain 13.1 million acres, 78 percent of the total.

YBP – Swanson – p. 80 County farm numbers by size and af rmland by farm size: 25-County Yellowstone Region

Yellowstone, MT Stillwater, MT Carbon, MT Sweet Grass, MT Park, WY Billings Sub-Area Gallatin, MT Park, MT Farms by size '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 1 to 9 ac. 84 106 10 24 16 23 9 14 33 64 152 231 60 62 20 24 10 to 49 ac. 384 368 107 96 110 122 38 44 115 224 754 854 291 351 93 119 50 to 69 ac. 65 64 19 20 34 30 19 22 40 44 177 180 37 65 21 24 70 to 99 ac. 69 64 19 14 37 46 16 14 41 28 182 166 51 58 21 26 100 to 139 ac. 64 78 14 19 56 52 19 16 42 31 195 196 57 56 16 34 140 to 179 ac. 50 73 29 47 55 45 9 13 36 37 179 215 52 62 24 24 180 to 219 ac. 35 40 22 19 23 27 17 5 25 29 122 120 29 27 18 20 220 to 259 ac. 48 33 6 9 28 23 7 10 12 11 101 86 25 22 5 7 260 to 499 ac. 131 126 55 44 122 88 28 27 87 90 423 375 128 122 49 46 500 to 999 ac. 107907760979637437869396 358 114 103 65 36 1,000 to 1,999 ac. 99 77 55 75 72 72 46 44 45 37 317 305 78 72 56 57 2000ac. & more 147 160 121 125 69 79 95 105 54 47 486 516 81 74 95 110 Totals (Farms) 1283 1279 534 552 719 703 340 357 608 711 3,484 3,602 1003 1074 483 527

Acres by Farm Size '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 1 to 9 ac. 424 491 33 84 67 95 39 60 186 364 749 1,094 217 259 101 65 10 to 49 ac. 9,443 8,845 2,708 2,462 2,784 3,143 1,065 1,361 2,903 5,997 18,903 21,808 7,198 8,640 2,264 2,881 50 to 69 ac. 3,683 3,739 1,158 1,175 1,939 1,718 1,052 1,215 2,321 2,572 10,153 10,419 2,081 3,688 1,254 1,449 70 to 99 ac. 5,676 5,297 1,492 1,074 3,034 3,752 1,320 1,125 3,364 2,176 14,886 13,424 4,119 4,703 1,712 2,145 100 to 139 ac. 7,404 9,168 1,525 2,201 6,427 6,075 2,139 1,927 5,082 3,606 22,577 22,977 6,665 6,664 1,773 3,700 140 to 179 ac. 7,898 11,617 4,571 7,397 8,667 7,043 1,392 2,032 5,550 5,683 28,078 33,772 8,078 9,818 3,839 3,845 180 to 219 ac. 6,866 7,703 4,356 3,730 4,542 5,249 3,406 951 4,961 5,652 24,131 23,285 5,610 5,337 3,542 3,924 220 to 259 ac. 11,389 7,821 1,391 2,158 6,661 5,413 1,664 2,449 2,897 2,558 24,002 20,399 5,907 5,197 1,200 1,705 260 to 499 ac. 47,451 45,465 18,742 15,118 44,669 32,336 10,549 10,270 30,996 32,295 152,407 135,484 46,002 43,862 17,248 16,156 500 to 999 ac. 77,580 60,841 54,594 43,981 69,492 71,624 27,097 30,554 54,128 49,619 282,891 256,619 79,125 71,871 44,593 24,101 1,000 to 1,999 ac. 135,035 108,880 83,511 109,401 102,464 104,667 67,933 65,932 62,986 49,765 451,929 438,645 106,127 101,019 82,339 80,071 2000ac. & more 1,183,842 1,298,770 716,297 701,545 513,983 512,389 720,112 749,182 846,072 650,015 3,980,306 3,911,901 511,060 447,670 575,679 707,025 Totals (Farmland) 1,496,691 1,568,637 890,378 890,326 764,729 753,504 837,768 867,058 1,021,446 810,302 5,011,012 4,889,827 782,189 708,728 735,544 847,067

Source: Agricultural Censuses, U.S.De partment of Agriculture and U.S.Ce nsus Bureau

YBP – Swanson – p. 81 County farm numbers by size and af rmland by farm size: 25-County Yellowstone Region

Madison, MT Beaverhead, MT Bozeman Sub-Area Bonneville, ID Madison, ID Jefferson, ID Fremont, ID Clark, ID Farms by size '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 1 to 9 ac. 13 24 15 25 108 135 155 222 100 104 162 183 83 70 2 6 10 to 49 ac. 87 96 72 78 543 644 284 316 138 128 256 217 121 118 9 12 50 to 69 ac. 24 29 11 12 93 130 33 31 17 27 46 46 17 20 0 0 70 to 99 ac. 24 21 9 9 105 114 49 53 24 26 59 52 25 40 2 2 100 to 139 ac. 34 21 19 35 126 146 26 20 26 23 40 34 27 23 5 3 140 to 179 ac. 27 24 19 20 122 130 43 48 24 17 43 38 29 30 4 4 180 to 219 ac. 18 27 13 13 78 87 17 25 18 9 13 9 31 23 3 2 220 to 259 ac. 13 15 0 4 43 48 19 18 16 11 18 19 12 20 2 4 260 to 499 ac. 68 52 33 30 278 250 90 60 52 41 94 55 56 49 10 6 500 to 999 ac. 59 41 43 38 281 218 82 59 45 38 76 56 69 61 8 6 1,000 to 1,999 ac. 69 63 47 38 250 230 57 56 37 33 50 38 43 27 7 17 2000ac. & more 99 100 128 119 403 403 54 55 29 22 31 37 41 37 32 23 Totals (Farms) 535 513 409 421 2,430 2,535 909 963 526 479 888 784 554 518 84 85

Acres by Farm Size '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 1 to 9 ac. 58 86 84 114 460 524 693 974 426 446 732 942 333 317 8 30 10 to 49 ac. 2,043 2,437 1,832 2,028 13,337 15,986 6,078 6,373 3,303 3,036 6,256 5,299 2,856 2,666 180 173 50 to 69 ac. 1,318 1,629 594 671 5,247 7,437 1,959 1,881 974 1,508 2,676 2,547 937 1,085 0 0 70 to 99 ac. 1,960 1,727 727 731 8,518 9,306 4,013 4,310 1,912 2,153 4,749 4,148 2,037 3,247 150 140 100 to 139 ac. 3,793 2,379 2,226 3,932 14,457 16,675 3,055 2,314 2,901 2,803 4,547 3,887 3,070 2,705 589 340 140 to 179 ac. 4,326 3,789 2,994 3,114 19,237 20,566 6,663 7,637 3,757 2,730 6,813 5,962 4,580 4,700 622 640 180 to 219 ac. 3,551 5,244 2,540 2,534 15,243 17,039 3,465 4,861 3,577 1,757 2,520 1,776 6,059 4,569 550 400 220 to 259 ac. 3,078 3,575 0 980 10,185 11,457 4,511 4,311 3,747 2,615 4,340 4,507 2,908 4,740 600 942 260 to 499 ac. 24,699 18,313 12,084 10,855 100,033 89,186 32,604 21,711 18,032 14,651 34,447 20,924 19,992 17,095 3,923 2,040 500 to 999 ac. 40,618 29,329 32,099 27,749 196,435 153,050 58,938 43,132 32,249 26,821 53,081 39,639 48,468 40,142 5,000 4,535 1,000 to 1,999 ac. 92,848 86,457 63,362 55,311 344,676 322,858 76,030 77,690 51,254 45,151 68,739 50,687 59,995 39,808 22,000 22,796 2000ac. & more 917,994 873,816 1,051,905 1,171,012 3,056,638 3,199,523 265,589 302,590 101,734 86,319 147,991 164,987 189,914 166,420 191,179 145,704 Totals (Farmland) 1,096,286 1,028,781 1,170,447 1,279,031 3,784,466 3,863,607 463,598 477,784 223,866 189,990 336,891 305,305 341,149 287,494 224,801 177,740

Source: Agricultural Censuses, U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Census Bureau

YBP – Swanson – p. 82 County farm numbers by size and af rmland by farm size: 25-County Yellowstone Region

Idaho Falls Sub-Area Bannock, ID Bingham, ID Caribou, ID Franklin, ID Bear Lake, ID Pocatello Sub-Area Teton, WY Farms by size '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 1 to 9 ac. 502 585 173 281 254 359 24 39 113 170 36 24 600 873 14 13 10 to 49 ac. 808 791 229 326 411 357 62 78 149 172 72 106 923 1,039 17 24 50 to 69 ac. 113 124 44 38 58 54 20 28 31 26 20 22 173 168 74 70 to 99 ac. 159 173 37 49 64 63 24 26 53 56 22 22 200 216 42 100 to 139 ac. 124 103 31 50 51 49 15 16 35 58 40 35 172 208 13 9 140 to 179 ac. 143 137 24 29 61 41 33 39 43 46 21 22 182 177 11 10 180 to 219 ac. 82 68 30 31 25 20 18 21 43 31 22 28 138 131 54 220 to 259 ac. 67 72 23 21 34 17 16 11 24 23 18 14 115 86 18 260 to 499 ac. 302 211 63 47 104 64 57 52 98 71 82 54 404 288 810 500 to 999 ac. 280 220 59 58 114 86 63 60 77 87 60 45 373 336 89 1,000 to 1,999 ac. 194 171 47 52 103 91 86 64 48 36 38 30 322 273 13 7 2000 ac. & more 187 174 35 48 60 72 61 56 18 16 20 22 194 214 610 Totals (Farms) 2,961 2,829 795 1030 1339 1273 479 490 732 792 451 424 3,796 4,009 107 110

Acres by Farm Size '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 1 to 9 ac. 2,192 2,709 746 1,082 1,171 1,607 92 177 456 744 153 110 2,618 3,720 100 100 10 to 49 ac. 18,673 17,547 5,382 6,918 9,372 7,923 1,413 1,748 3,514 4,029 1,583 2,654 21,264 23,272 430 627 50 to 69 ac. 6,546 7,021 2,475 2,176 3,375 3,096 1,124 1,602 1,798 1,499 1,217 1,245 9,989 9,618 398 211 70 to 99 ac. 12,861 13,998 2,988 3,951 5,195 5,075 1,937 2,099 4,226 4,537 1,819 1,856 16,165 17,518 325 150 100 to 139 ac. 14,162 12,049 3,636 5,782 5,870 5,566 1,760 1,884 4,060 6,613 4,845 3,928 20,171 23,773 1,463 1,044 140 to 179 ac. 22,435 21,669 3,808 4,550 9,568 6,447 5,256 6,188 6,778 7,187 3,394 3,528 28,804 27,900 1,758 1,516 180 to 219 ac. 16,171 13,363 5,954 6,068 4,981 4,037 3,568 4,142 8,425 6,097 4,318 5,276 27,246 25,620 850 817 220 to 259 ac. 16,106 17,115 5,450 4,963 7,998 4,102 3,880 2,606 5,684 5,579 4,289 3,365 27,301 20,615 240 1,937 260 to 499 ac. 108,998 76,421 22,841 17,048 37,565 23,731 20,302 18,462 34,888 24,476 29,613 19,381 145,209 103,098 2,783 3,440 500 to 999 ac. 197,736 154,269 39,519 38,892 79,687 60,775 43,922 42,991 54,410 59,289 44,848 30,518 262,386 232,465 5,902 5,910 1,000 to 1,999 ac. 278,018 236,132 67,171 77,582 147,093 129,769 118,610 93,960 64,567 46,017 53,537 43,302 450,978 390,630 17,404 9,231 2000 ac. & more 896,407 866,020 152,406 188,092 501,006 569,035 294,696 251,114 61,977 77,740 74,976 96,367 1,085,061 1,182,348 22,100 32,155 Totals (Farmland) 1,590,305 1,438,313 312,376 357,104 812,881 821,163 496,560 426,973 250,783 243,807 224,592 211,530 2,097,192 2,060,577 53,753 57,138

Source: Agricultural Censuses, U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Census Bureau

YBP – Swanson – p. 83 County farm numbers by size and afrmland by farm size: 25-County Yellowstone Region

Teton, ID Sublette, WY Lincoln, WY Jackson Sub-Area Fremont, WY Hot Springs, WY Riverton/Lander 25-County Region Farms by size '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 1 to 9 ac. 20 22 7 10 22 25 63 70 55 54 15 21 70 75 1,495 1,969 10 to 49 ac. 61 88 48 70 124 128 250 310 207 245 17 20 224 265 3,502 3,903 50 to 69 ac. 14 8 10 3 27 27 58 42 41 40 10 9 51 49 665 693 70 to 99 ac. 20 21 8 13 31 28 63 64 78 109 9 7 87 116 796 849 100 to 139 ac. 20 32 9 6 38 30 80 77 62 52 6 5 68 57 765 787 140 to 179 ac. 18 20 10 10 40 35 79 75 70 65 10 5 80 70 785 804 180 to 219 ac. 1297725849 28 48 47 7 4 55 51 524 485 220 to 259 ac. 15754131634 35 38 42 7 5 45 47 405 374 260 to 499 ac. 40 27 29 24 67 78 144 139 120 102 18 10 138 112 1,689 1,375 500 to 999 ac. 41 31 29 19 57 50 135 109 120 120 11 13 131 133 1,596 1,374 1,000 to 1,999 ac. 23 24 33 26 21 26 90 83 71 58 8 10 79 68 1,252 1,130 2000 ac. & more 17 13 92 78 48 44 163 145 100853438134 123 1,567 1,575 Totals (Farms) 301 302 287 270 513 495 1,208 1,177 1010 1019 152 147 1,162 1,166 15,041 15,318

Acres by Farm Size '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 '97 '02 1 to 9 ac. 80 101 26 44 114 74 320 319 213 235 64 100 277 335 6,616 8,701 10 to 49 ac. 1,761 2,532 1,388 1,943 3,552 3,460 7,131 8,562 5,499 6,657 539 630 6,038 7,287 85,346 94,462 50 to 69 ac. 797 471 599 183 1,516 1,565 3,310 2,430 2,400 2,286 582 499 2,982 2,785 38,227 39,710 70 to 99 ac. 1,584 1,689 665 1,106 2,595 2,218 5,169 5,163 6,608 8,870 725 566 7,333 9,436 64,932 68,845 100 to 139 ac. 2,314 3,714 1,011 696 4,351 3,480 9,139 8,934 7,131 6,213 703 629 7,834 6,842 88,340 91,250 140 to 179 ac. 2,851 3,096 1,571 1,592 6,204 5,469 12,384 11,673 11,033 10,366 1,553 820 12,586 11,186 123,524 126,766 180 to 219 ac. 2,353 1,815 1,342 1,375 5,010 1,585 9,555 5,592 9,439 9,331 1,385 816 10,824 10,147 103,170 95,046 220 to 259 ac. 3,605 1,709 1,162 960 3,122 3,822 8,129 8,428 9,011 9,983 1,678 1,232 10,689 11,215 96,412 89,229 260 to 499 ac. 14,736 9,768 10,744 8,232 24,782 28,178 53,045 49,618 42,244 36,119 6,487 3,536 48,731 39,655 608,423 493,462 500 to 999 ac. 27,576 22,761 21,218 14,279 39,606 34,725 94,302 77,675 84,244 86,624 7,187 8,602 91,431 95,226 1,125,181 969,304 1,000 to 1,999 ac. 31,252 31,792 46,046 35,114 29,985 35,207 124,687 111,344 93,835 76,363 11,982 13,552 105,817 89,915 1,756,105 1,589,524

2000 ac. & more 49,422 45,165 521,433 520,208 287,713 245,054 880,668 842,582 2,364,210 2,250,826 917,669 845,578 3,281,879 3,096,404 13,180,959 13,098,778

Totals (Farmland) 138,331 124,613 607,205 585,732 408,550 364,837 1,207,839 1,132,320 2,635,867 2,503,873 950,554 876,560 3,586,421 3,380,433 17,277,235 16,765,077

Source: Agricultural Censuses, U.S. Department of Agriculturean d U.S. Census Bureau

YBP – Swanson – p. 84 Adjustments in Local Area Labor Earnings from Places of Work to Counties as "Exporters" and "Importers" of Labor Earnings (mil. of 2000$) Jefferson, ID $107 Places of Residence Bingham, ID $105 Bannock (Pocatello) $79 The larger Yellowstone region has several Franklin, ID $65 regional population centers including Billings, Carbon, MT $65 $52 Bozeman, Idaho Falls, and Pocatello. Counties Park, MT Fremont, ID $42 with regional population centers are centers of Teton, ID $35 trade, entertainment, health care, finance, Bear Lake, ID $26 $21 transportation, and education. And they are Lincoln, WY '04 centers of employment. They have businesses Fremont, WY $16 $7 that employ people from not only the community Stillwater, MT '02 $7 and county in which they are located, but from Madison, MT Sublette, WY $6 '00 surrounding communities, including ones in Hot Springs, WY $6 neighboring counties. Beaverhead, M-$1T Clark, ID BEA develops labor earnings data for both Bonneville (Idaho Falls) places of employment (where workers work) and Park, WY -$16 places of residence (where workers live). They Gallatin (Bozeman) Sw-$27eet Grass, MT calculate workplace labor earnings for each -$27Madison, ID county using the former and they calculate -$38 Caribou, ID personal income for county residents by using -$67 Yellowstone (Blgs) the latter. The adjustment in “workplace” labor -$77 Teton, WY earnings to “residential” labor earnings for each -$100 -$50 $0 $50 $100 $150 county made by BEA can be either negative, Source: Swanson, using U.S. Dept. of Commerce data on "labor earnings adjustments by residence" meaning a county is “exporting” some of the labor earnings generated by workplaces in the Regional center counties are ordinarily “exporters” of labor earnings and more rural and county to surrounding counties where some of less-populated counties nearby regional centers are usually “importers” of labor earnings. the workers for these workplaces live. In these This is what can be seen with Yellowstone County, which exported $67 million to other cases, the county has a “negative” residential counties where persons lived who worked in Yellowstone County. Gallatin County, adjustment for labor earnings. Counties with where Bozeman is located, exported a much smaller amount ($16 mil.). But Bonneville positive adjustments are ones where many of County where Idaho Falls is located shows a positive gain in 2002, indicating it was an their residents who work are employed in importer of labor earnings and only a small negative outflow in 2004. This is contrary to neighboring counties. The chart in the upper what is ordinarily evidenced with regional center counties. And Bannock County where right shows labor earnings residential Pocatello is located had a very large positive gain ($79 mil. in 2004), indicating it imports adjustments for Yellowstone Region counties, significant labor earnings from workplaces located outside the county. These with those receiving positive adjustments aberrations for these two Idaho regional center counties appear to be the result of being (importers) at the top and those with negative located nearby surrounding less populated counties that have very large employers, adjustments (exporters) shown at the bottom. including the Idaho National Engineering Lab in Butte County west of Idaho Falls.

YBP – Swanson – p. 85 Butte County, not included in our 25-county Yellowstone Region and not shown in the Labor Earnings Adjustments by County of Residence: Teton, Wy, Sub-Area previous chart, has negative residential labor $60 earnings adjustments, indicating it exports $40 $34.7 employment earnings received in its workplaces $30.2 $17.5 out of the county where some of its workers live. $20 These totaled $260 million in 2004, $258 million $4.0 in 2003, $281 million in 2002, and $276 million $0 in 2001, all from a county with only 2,800 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 -$7.4 residents. These extremely high labor earnings -$20 exports by this lightly populated county to other counties, including both Bonneville and Bannock -$40 -$41.3 Counties, would overwhelm other labor earnings Millions of 2000 Dollars flows by these counties. This makes it -$60 impossible to accurately gauge the role of Idaho -$80 Falls and Pocatello as suppliers of labor -$74.5 -$77.3 earnings for workers residing in nearby counties. -$100 Power County, Idaho, west of Pocatello – also Teton, WY Teton, ID Sublette, WY Fremont, WY not in the 25-county region – is a major exporter of labor earnings as well – $23 million in 2004 Although not classified as a “regional center” county, per se, Teton where Jackson is and $55 million in 2001. This results from located and which serves as a center of tourism and recreation activity in the region, is a several large industrial employers located in major exporter of labor earnings, most likely received by surrounding counties. The chart Power County that employ workers mainly shows how these labor earnings exports by Teton County have expanded over time, residing in Pocatello and Bannock County. increasing from just over $7 million in 1984 to more than $77 million in 2004. The Caribou County, which is one of the 25 counties nearby counties of Teton Co., Idaho; and Sublette and Fremont Counties in Wyoming, in the region, also is a large exporter of labor also are shown in the chart. Fremont County also is probably receiving labor earnings earnings, tied to the location of a large mine (the from workplaces in Casper – a regional population center to the east and not shown in Smokey Canyon mine) in this county that draws these charts. workers from surrounding counties. Caribou also has the Caribou National Forest and These counties are all places where many persons who work in Teton County, Wyoming, portions of the Fort Hall Reservation that would live and are all major recipients of labor earnings imports. Teton County, Idaho, is the employ persons from nearby counties. largest recipient of these labor earnings flows where they rose from $4 million in 1984 to $17.5 million in 1995 and to $34.7 million in 2004. Driggs located in Teton County, Teton County, Wyoming, a non-regional center Idaho, is where increasing numbers of persons live who work in the Jackson area. In county from the standpoint of shear population that employment in the Jackson area is tourism-based, it also is somewhat seasonal and size, also appears to act as a regional job so would be many of these flows of labor earnings to surrounding counties. A more center, exporting $77 million in labor earnings, straight-forward look at how labor earnings flow from regional center counties to nearby more than any of the 25 counties. less-populated and rural counties can be gained by examining the Billings sub-area.

YBP – Swanson – p. 86 Inter-County Labor Earnings Flows Labor Earnings Adjustments by County of Residence: Billings Sub-Area in the Billings Sub-Area $60 The upper chart shows net exchanges of labor $40.4 $40 $34.7 $35.8 earnings for Yellowstone County and for the four $26.6 counties in its sub-area (Sweet Grass, Stillwater, and Carbon in Montana and Park in Wyoming). $20 $11.8 Net labor earnings exports from Yellowstone have steadily grown while the combined net $0 '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 imports of the four surrounding counties are -$12.2 generally rising in recent years. Labor earnings -$20 exports by Yellowstone County were $12 million -$23.1 in 1990, $33 million in 1995 and $52 million in -$40Millions of 2000 Dollars -$33.3 2000. More recently they totaled $67 million in -$51.6 2004. This steady and fairly rapid growth in -$60 these outflows of labor earnings from -$66.9 Yellowstone to neighboring counties reflects -$80 steady growth in the Billings economy and in Source: BEA, U.S. Dept. of Commerce employment by Billings-based employers. Yellowstone (Blgs) 4-Surrounding Cos.

The lower chart shows residential adjustments in labor earnings for each of the surrounding Labor Earnings Adjustments for Surrounding Cos: Billings Sub-Area counties. Carbon County is the largest recipient $80 of labor earnings, which totaled more than $60 million in 2004. Some of these would be from $64.8 jobs by Carbon County residents in Billings and $60 some are probably by county residents employed at the nearby platinum mine in $40 Stillwater County. The movement of the labor earnings adjustment for Sweet Grass County from positive (net inflows) to negative (net $20 $16.9 outflows) in recent years reflects the expansion of the Stillwater Mine into Sweet Grass County $0 Millions of 2000 Dollars and employment at that workplace of many non- '80 '81 '82 '83 '84 '85 '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 residents of Sweet Grass County. The region’s largest cities serve as major suppliers of labor -$20 earnings to residents throughout the 25-county -$26.98 region. But so do a handful of very large -$40 employers in the smaller counties. Stillwater, MT Carbon, MT Sweet Grass, MT Park, WY

YBP – Swanson – p. 87 Seasonality in Labor Force and Monthly Labor Force & Employment, 1990 to 2006: 25-County Region Employment in the Yellowstone 410,000 Region 390,000 State labor departments in Montana, Idaho, and 383,713 370,000 Wyoming regularly compile monthly estimates of 366,790 labor force (those living in a county seeking employment) and employment (those in the labor 350,000 force that have a job at the time of inquiry) for 338,478 individual counties. The upper chart shows monthly 330,000 326,983 labor force and employment estimates for all 25 counties in the Yellowstone Region. The labor force 310,000 fluctuates up and down on a month to month basis and the repetition in “waves” in the size of the labor 290,000 force and employment reflect the amount of 283,829

“seasonality” there is in area employment. The 270,000 266,983 labor force rises with increased monthly employment and decreases as employment falls. 250,000 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 '90. '90. '90. '91. '91. '91. '92. '92. '92. '93. '93. '93. '94. '94. '94. '95. '95. '95. '96. '96. '96. '97. '97. '97. '98. '98. '98. '99. '99. '99. '00. '00. '00. '01. '01. '01. '02. '02. '02. '03. '03. '03. '04. '04. '04. '05. '05. '05. '06. '06. '06. Overtime the amount of seasonality in employment Source: State Labor Force data over the course of a year is largely being Labor Force Employment maintained. However, levels of employment – both yearly lows and highs – are steadily rising as the region grows. In the early ‘90s, the yearly monthly Monthly Unemployment Rates, 1990 to 2006: 25-County Region high for employment was 283,800 vs. a low of 8.0%

267,000 – a difference of 16,800 or a 6.3 percent 7.0% fluctuation in employment from the annual monthly 6.8% 6.3% low. More recently in 2005-06, the monthly high 6.0% 6.0% 5.9% was 383,700 and low 366,800, for a difference of 5.6% 5.1% 5.2% 16,900. But at much higher levels of employment, 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.4% this represented only a 4.6 percent fluctuation in 4.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% employment from the yearly monthly low or base 3.8% 3.8% 3.3% 3.4% employment. So, while seasonality in employment 3.0% 3.1% remains roughly constant – about 17,000 workers a 2.4% year – the relative importance of this fluctuation in 2.0% employment is much becoming increasingly less region-wide. Monthly unemployment rates – both 1.0% 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 1 5 9 annual highs and lows also are lowering overtime. '90. '90. '90. '91. '91. '91. '92. '92. '92. '93. '93. '93. '94. '94. '94. '95. '95. '95. '96. '96. '96. '97. '97. '97. '98. '98. '98. '99. '99. '99. '00. '00. '00. '01. '01. '01. '02. '02. '02. '03. '03. '03. '04. '04. '04. '05. '05. '05. '06. '06. '06.

YBP – Swanson – p. 88 Seasonality in Labor Force and Monthly Labor Force & Employmt: 4 Reg. Center Cos. vs. 21 Rural Cos. Employment – Regional Center 240,000 Counties vs. Other More Rural Counties in the Region 220,000

200,000 These two charts breakout the previous data on labor force and employment for the Yellowstone 180,000 Region into two groupings: figures for the 4 more- populated, regional center counties and for the 21 160,000 other counties in the region. The four regional center counties employ significantly more people 140,000 than are employed by the other 21 counties and you can see monthly variability in labor force and 120,000 employment for the two groupings. Seasonality is a considerably bigger factor for the non-regional 100,000 .1 .6 .4 .9 .2 .7 .5 .3 .8 .1 .6 .4 .9 .2 .7 .5 .3 .8 .1 .6 .4 .9 .2 .7 .5 .3 .8 .1 .6 .4 .9 .11 .12 .10 .11 .12 .10 .11 .12 .10 .11 '90 '90 '91 '91 '92 '92 '93 '94 '94 '95 '95 '96 '96 '97 '97 '98 '99 '99 '00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 center counties. '90 '92 '93 '95 '97 '98 '00 '02 '03 '05

4 Regional Centers - LF 4 Regional Centers - E The lower chart shows variations in monthly Other 21 Counties - LF Other 21 Counties - E unemployment rates for the two groupings of counties overtime. Unemployment during the course of a given year is significantly higher in the Monthly Unemployment Rates, 4 Reg. Center Cos. vs. 21 Rural Cos: 21 more rural counties as a whole than in the 4 8.0% regional center counties. But for both sets of 7.6% counties, these unemployment rates – both yearly 7.0% 6.9% highs and lows – are gradually shifting to lower 6.5% levels. This is the result of a gradually expanding 6.0% population and income base in the region in both 5.4% sets of counties, with higher levels of employment, 5.0% and with growing stability in base levels of 4.7% employment at higher and higher levels. In short, 4.3% 4.0% the economy of the region and employment levels it 3.8% 3.8% 3.9% sustains over the course of a year are growing, 3.3% 3.0% reducing some of the impacts of employment 2.6% seasonality. 2.0% .1 .6 .4 .9 .2 .7 .5 .3 .8 .1 .6 .4 .9 .2 .7 .5 .3 .8 .1 .6 .4 .9 .2 .7 .5 .3 .8 .1 .6 .4 .9 .11 .12 .10 .11 .12 .10 .11 .12 .10 .11 '90 '90 '91 '91 '92 '92 '93 '94 '94 '95 '95 '96 '96 '97 '97 '98 '99 '99 '00 '00 '01 '01 '02 '02 '03 '04 '04 '05 '05 '06 '06 However, at the county level, there continue to be '90 '92 '93 '95 '97 '98 '00 '02 '03 '05 fairly high degrees of seasonality in employment, as 4 Regional Centers Other 21 Counties examined next.

YBP – Swanson – p. 89 Relative Significance of Seasonality Employment Seasonality (July vs. Jan.) as % of Area Base Employmt (Jan. low) in Employment Overtime among Teton, WY 24.1% Counties in the Yellowstone Region Teton, ID 23.3% Park, WY 23.2% Park, MT 16.5% The chart at the right shows the relative size of Madison, ID 16.3% annual swings in monthly employment levels for Fremont, ID 16.3% Madison, MT 15.4% individual counties in the region for two points in Bear Lake, ID 13.2% time – the early ‘90s and more recently in 2005-06. Hot Springs, WY 9.8% What is being measured in the chart is the Beaverhead, MT 9.5% difference in the July season high employment level Lincoln, WY 8.8% Clark, ID 7.1% '05/'06 in a county and the January season low Gallatin, MT 6.3% employment level, with this difference measured as Sublette, WY 5.7% '90/'91 a percent of the seasonal low level of employment. Bingham, ID 5.5% Caribou, ID 5.4% Essentially these measures show how significance 25-County Area 4.8% these annual swings in employment are in relation Fremont, WY to low or base levels of employment in each of the Stillwater, MT counties. Yellowstone, MT Carbon, MT Sweet Grass, MT Counties are rank-ordered in the chart, with the Bonneville, ID counties having the highest relative swings in Jefferson, ID Bannock, ID seasonal employment at the top in the chart and Franklin, ID those with the lowest swings at the bottom. Teton -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% County, Wyoming, has the largest employment Source: Swanson, using State Labor Force data swing – a 24 percent change in employment from the annual low to the annual monthly high in the Employment and Labor Force Seasonality (July Highs vs. Jan. Lows) 2005-06 period. While this can be considered 10.0% moderately high employment seasonality, it is much Other 21 Counties - E 12.9% lower than what it was in Teton County, Wyoming, 8.5% in the early ‘90s (50 percent). In fact, the degree of Other 21 Counties - LF 9.5% employment seasonality for many of the region’s 4.8% 25-County Area - E 6.3% counties is falling, as was the case region-wide. '05/'06 3.7% 25-County Area - LF 4.0% '90/'91 Teton County, Idaho, and Park County, Wyoming, 1.0% are second and third among the 25 counties in 4 Regional Centers - E 1.6% terms of employment seasonality – both at about 23 0.3% 4 Regional Centers -0.1%- LF percent in the more recent period. These levels are down in both counties from the early ‘90s. -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Source: Swanson, using State Labor Force data Seasonality is much less among regional centers.

YBP – Swanson – p. 90 Employment Variability in the Seven Monthly Labor Force & Employment: Seven Most Seasonal Counties in Most Seasonal Counties in the Region Yellowstone Region 80,000 As shown in the previous chart, employment 75,000 seasonality among the 4 regional center counties is '05.7 much less as a group than it is for the 21 other 70,000 counties in the region as a group – 1 percent annual '00.7 fluctuation vs. a 10 percent fluctuation. The upper 65,000 chart on this page focuses on the seven counties in '95.7 the region having the highest seasonality levels in 60,000 employment – Teton, WY; Teton, ID; Park, WY; '03.2 Park, MT; Madison, MT; Madison, ID; and Fremont, 55,000 '91.7 ID. Employment seasonality for these counties '98.2 ranged from a high of 24 percent for Teton, WY, to a 50,000 low of 16 percent for Fremont and they are the only '94.2 counties in the region where this measure of 45,000 seasonality exceeds 16 percent for the 2005-06 40,000 period. All seven of these counties are in or .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 .1 .7 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 adjacent to Yellowstone National Park. '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '9 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 Source: Swanson, using State Labor Force data (seasonality measured by annual percent fluxuation in employment) The upper chart shows the monthly labor force and Lab Force Emp employment levels for these seven counties combined overtime. Annual highs in employment Annual Employment Fluctuation (July vs. Feb.) as % of Base Employmt tend to occur in July each year and annual 35.0% (Febr.) employment lows tend to occur in February. The 30.2% 30.0% lower chart then shows what they annual 26.7% fluctuations in monthly employment translate into in 24.9% percentage terms measured against yearly base or 25.0% 19.1% low employment levels. In 1993 there was a greater 20.0% than 13,000 fluctuation in employment during the 15.2% 15.3% year, representing a 30 percent change. By 2006 15.0% this fluctuation had shrunk to 9,800 which represented a 15 percent employment swing during 10.0% the year. Clearly even in the region’s most tourism 5.0% dependent counties, the significance of annual employment seasonality is decreasing and this 0.0% should continue as the region’s population, income '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 Source: Swanson, using State Labor Force data base and economy expand.

YBP – Swanson – p. 91 Seasonality in Area Traffic Flows in Monthly Daily Traffic in the Early '90s vs. 2003-05: National Park Gateways the Yellowstone Region 7,000

6,183 6,205 The relatively high levels of employment seasonality 6,000 6,087 in various areas within the Yellowstone Region are 5,000 closely associated with seasonal fluctuations in 4,829 4,925 visitation to the region, mainly to the region’s 4,637 national parks – Yellowstone and Grand Teton. The 4,000 region also has several large ski resorts, that have seasonal use and that generate seasonal 3,000 employment. We can see that the significance of 2,000 these seasonal fluctuations in employment are decreasing as base levels of employment 1,000 throughout the region grow. 809 858 881 761

0

1 3 5 7 9 1 1 3 5 7 9 1 1 3 5 7 9 1 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 1 3 5 7 9 Another way of gauging the importance of 1 1 1 11 1 11 '91. '91. '91. '91. '91. '92. '92. '92. '92. '92. '93. '93. '93. '93. '93. '03. '03. '03. '03. '03. '04. '04. '04. '04. '04. '05. '05. '05. '05. '05. seasonality in the region is by viewing traffic levels '91. '92. '93. '03. '04. '05. Source: State Highway Department data on the region’s major highways overtime. Employment seasonality is greatest in areas of the 17E (Daniel Junction) ATR #032 Highway 20, Island Park region nearby Yellowstone and Grand Teton A-19 Duck Creek (US 191 and 287) 35 (Cody West) National Parks. To measure the extent of A-20 US 89 N of Gardiner 24 (Togwotee Pass, Teton Co., WY) seasonality in traffic to and from these parks, several highway locations were selected that Monthly Daily Traffic Through Jackson Hole, 2003-05 represent the major “gateways” to and from the 16,000 parks. These include Highway 20 in Island Park, 14,954 14,612 14,000 US Highways 191 and 287 (Duck Creek), Highway 13,688 35 west of Cody, Highway 17E near Daniel Junction, US 89 north of Gardiner, and Highway 24 12,000 11,224 at the Togwotee Pass. These highway locations are 11,005 10,882 shown in the map on the page that follows. 10,000

8,000 The top chart shows monthly traffic counts (average 7,498 7,388 7,529 7,408 7,613 7,403 daily traffic) for these locations for three years in the 6,000 early ‘90s and for 2003-05. Seasonality in traffic flows is marked and increasing in absolute terms 4,000

.1 .3 .5 .7 .9 1 .1 .3 .5 .7 .9 1 .1 .3 .5 .7 .9 1 overtime. Peaks tend to fall in July while lows are in 3 3 3 3 3 .1 4 4 4 4 4 .1 5 5 5 5 5 .1 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 3 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 4 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 5 the winter months (Nov. – Febr.). The lower chart '0 '0 '0 191N Wilson East (Teton Co., WY) shows traffic flows through Jackson (191N).

YBP – Swanson – p. 92 Selected Highway Locations for Measuring Intra-regional Traffic

Major highways passing through the Yellowstone Region are shown in the map, along with selected locations for use in analyzing traffic levels and flows in the region. The first three locations are in periphery areas of the larger region, including points on I-90 east of Bozeman and I-15 north of Idaho Falls (A1-A3). Six points considered major gateways to the national parks are shown (B1-B6). And three locations nearby entry and exit points for major ski resorts are shown (C1-C3).

State highway department data are then used in analyzing traffic flows at these various locations during a year and over the course of the last ten or more years.

Selected Highway Locations Region Periphery Areas A1: A-120 I-90 Columbus A2: ATR #73 I-15 Spencer A3: 113W Sage Junction (Lincoln Co., WY) National Park Gateway Areas B1: 17E (Daniel Junction) B2: ATR #032 Hwy 20, Island Park B3: A-19 Duck Creek (US 191 and 287) B4: 35 (Cody West) B5: A-20 US 89 N. of Gardiner B6: 24 (Togwotee Pass, Teton Co., WY) Areas Nearby Major Ski Resorts C1: 191N Wilson East (Teton Co., WY) C2: A-43 US 191 N. of Big Sky C3: A-58 US 212 N. of Red Lodge

YBP – Swanson – p. 93 The chart of traffic flows through Jackson on the previous page shows two peak traffic months – one Monthly Daily Traffic Estimates Nearby Yellowstone Region Ski Resorts 9,000 in July and one in February, with the one in July considerably higher. It also shows two lows – one 8,000 8,128 7,252 in March and the other in November. So, there is 7,000 seasonality revolving around highs in both July and 6,374 6,000 February, the latter probably associated with ski season in Jackson and the former around summer 5,000 visitation to the parks and larger region. 4,000 3,000 The upper chart shows monthly traffic counts for highway locations nearby major ski resorts in the 2,000 area, also shown on the map (labeled as “C” 1,000 locations). July is the peak traffic month even in 0 these areas nearby ski areas with low traffic .1 .4 .7 0 .1 .4 .7 0 .1 .4 .7 0 .2 .5 .8 1 .2 .5 .8 1 .2 .5 .8 1 1 1 1 .1 2 2 2 .1 3 3 3 .1 3 3 3 .1 4 4 4 .1 5 5 5 .1 '9 '9 '9 1 '9 '9 '9 2 '9 '9 '9 3 '0 '0 '0 3 '0 '0 '0 4 '0 '0 '0 5 occurring in November, that would fall between the '9 '9 '9 '0 '0 '0 Fall drop-off in traffic and January-February pick-up Source: State Highway Departments data in traffic coinciding with the busiest skiing months. A-64 MT 64 W of US 191 A-43 US 191 N of Big Sky A-58 US 212 N of Red Lodge

Seasonality measured in terms of traffic flows appears to be widening from the lows to the highs Monthly Daily Traffic Estimates in Region Periphery Areas, 2003-05 14,000 in these areas nearby ski resorts, just as is the case 13,153 13,095 13,274 in park gateway areas. The lower chart at the right 12,000 shows that seasonality is present in traffic flows on major highways and Interstates in periphery areas 10,000 of the region as well. The location with the largest traffic flows is on I-90 nearby Columbus, Montana, 8,000 in the region’s northern periphery area. Traffic 6,896 6,954 flows for I-15 near Spencer, Idaho, also shown, are 6,000 considerably less than the I-90 flows, as are the 4,000 flows on Highway 113 West in Lincoln County, 3,792 3,707 3,813 Wyoming, in the region’s southern periphery area. 2,000 2,003 1,807 1,410 1,243 1,271 Traffic highs occur in July and these are 536 548 0 considerably higher than January lows. On I-90 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 10 11 12 10 11 12 '03. '03. '03. '03. '03. '03. '03. '03. '03. '04. '04. '04. '04. '04. '04. '04. '04. '04. '05. '05. '05. '05. '05. '05. '05. '05. '05. near Columbus, the high in July of over 13,000 is '03. '03. '03. '04. '04. '04. '05. '05. '05. nearly 90 percent higher than the January low, Source: State Highway Department data which is under 7,000. Traffic on I-15 in Idaho A-120 I90 Columbus ATR #73 I15 Spencer 113W Sage Junction (Lincoln Co., WY) fluctuates by over 100 percent from lows to highs.

YBP – Swanson – p. 94 APPENDIX – Age Charts for Regional Center Counties and Sub-Areas of the Yellowstone Region

Yellowstone County’s Population by Age: 1990 vs. 2000

Age Shifts in the Billings Sub-area Rural Counties

Shifting Age Composition in Another Regional Center County – Gallatin County

Age Shifts for Bozeman Sub-area Rural Counties

Shifting Age Composition in Bonneville County

Age Shifts in the Idaho Falls Surrounding Area

Age Shifts in the Population of Bannock County – Home of Pocatello

Age Shifts in the Rural Area Population Surrounding Pocatello

Population Age Shifts in the 4-County Jackson Sub-area

Population Age Shifts in Fremont and Hot Springs Counties

YBP – Swanson – p. 95 Yellowstone County’s Yellowstone Co. Population by Age: 1990 vs. 2000 Population by Age: 1990 2,500 vs. 2000

Between 1990 and 2000 the 2,000 population of Yellowstone County – the single most populated county in the 25-county 1,500 Yellowstone Region - increased from 113,400 people to about 129,000, an increase of 15,900 1,000 people or about 14%.

The chart at the top shows how 500 the population changed by age with counts of the youngest members of the population at the 0 left and oldest at the right. The '<1 2 4 6 8 1012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 population mainly expanded for '90 '00 persons in their 40s and 50s – baby boomers. There also was a Yellowstone Co. Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000 significant increase in the 1,000 population of young persons in their teens and early 20s. There 800 was a significant decrease in the population of young adults 600 between their late 20s and late 30s. 400

This can be clearly seen in the 200 chart below showing only change 0 in the population over this period '<1 2 4 6 8 1012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 by single age. While having sizeable increases in population -200 of persons 40 to 60, the county -400 experienced a large decline in young adults, ages 27 to 37. -600

YBP – Swanson – p. 96 Age Shifts in the Population by Age in 4 Surrounding Counties: 1990 vs. 2000 Billings Sub-area Rural 1,000 Counties 900

Four counties lie between 800 Yellowstone Park and Billings, outside of Yellowstone County. 700

These are Carbon, Stillwater, and 600 Sweet Grass in Montana and Park in Wyoming. The 500 population of these four counties increased from 41,000 in 1990 to 400

47,000 in 2000, with the majority 300 of these residents living in Park Co., which had a 1990 population 200 of 23,000 and a 2000 population 100 of 26,000. 0 The upper chart shows the '<124681012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 population distribution by age in '90 '00 this four-county area both years and the lower chart shows how 4-County Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000 the population changed by each 500 age. Again, much of the area’s population growth was 400 concentrated among persons between their early 40s and early 300 60s – baby boomers. There was 200 only a small increase in the children of boomers or young 100 persons in their teens and twenties. A decline in young 0 adults between their mid-20s and '<124681012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 late 30s also is reflected in a -100 decrease in young children in this sub-area. -200

-300

YBP – Swanson – p. 97 Shifting Age Compo- Gallatin Co. Population by Age: 1990 vs. 2000 sition in Regional 2,500 Center County - Gallatin County 2,000 Gallatin County contains another of the Yellowstone Region’s regional population centers – 1,500 Bozeman – and the upper chart shows the population of Gallatin County in 1990 (shown in blue) and ten years later in 2000 1,000 (shown in red). The lower chart shows change only in the population by single age from 500 youngest to oldest.

During this ten-year period the 0 county’s population increased '<1 2 4 6 8 1012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 from 50,500 to 67,800 – an '90 '00 increase of 17,400 people or 34%. Much of the population Gallatin Co. Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000 growth is concentrated between 800 two age groups – those from their 700 early 40s to early 60s years of age, or baby boomers, and those 600 in their teens and 20s, mainly 500 children of baby boomers. The spike in population between ages 400

18 and 23 also reflects the 300 presence of Montana State University in Bozeman and the 200 inclusion of at least some of its 100 students in the county’s 0 permanent resident population. '<124681012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 There was actually a small -100 decline in the number of persons -200 in their mid-30s. YBP – Swanson – p. 98 Age Shifts for Bozeman Population by Age in 3 Surrounding Counties: 1990 vs. 2000 Sub-area Rural Counties 700

The upper chart shows the 600 population by single age from youngest to oldest for persons residing in the three rural 500 counties nearby Bozeman - Park, Madison, and Beaverhead 400 Counties - in 1990 and ten years later in 2000. The combined 300 population of these three counties increased from 29,000 to 31,700 during this period – up 200 by 2,850 of 10%. Park County’s population is the largest of the 100 three, rising from 14,500 in 1990 to 15,700. 0 '>1 2 4 6 8 1012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 '90 '00 The lower chart shows how the population of the area changed by single age during the period. 3-County Population Change: 1990 to 2000 Growth is focused among 400 persons from their early 40s to late 50s – baby boomers. There 300 is a small increase among young persons in their teens and early 20s. Significant declines 200 occurred among persons from their mid-20s to late 30s and 100 among young children.

There were only modest 0 increases in the elderly '>1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 population at ages 65 and older. However, this older population -100 will increase substantially as the boomer group ages. -200

YBP – Swanson – p. 99 Shifting Age Compo- Bonneville Co. Population by Age: 1990 vs. 2000 sition in Bonneville 1,800 County 1,600 The population of Bonneville 1,400 County – another of the

Yellowstone Region’s regional 1,200 center counties with Idaho Falls - increased from 72,200 people in 1,000 1990 to 82,500 in 2000 – an increase of 10,300 persons or 800 more than 14%. The upper chart shows how the population 600 changed during this period by 400 single age from youngest to oldest. Bonneville has a 200 considerable large share of its total population at ages under 18 0 than either Yellowstone or '<1 2 4 6 8 1012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 Gallatin Counties. '90 '00

Much of the county’s growth was Bonneville Co. Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000 focused among persons from 600 their early 40s to early 60s –baby boomers. There also was 500 considerable growth among 400 young persons in their teens and early 20s – children of boomers. 300 A substantial decrease in 200 population occurred among persons from their mid-20s to late 100 30s and among young children. 0 Decreases in these two age '>1 2 4 6 8 1012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 groups coincide because very -100 young children under 10 years of age would be largely associated -200 with young adults between their -300 mid-20s and late 40s.

YBP – Swanson – p. 100 Age Shifts in the Idaho Population by Age in 4 Surrounding Counties: 1990 vs. 2000 Falls Surrounding Area 4,000

The four nearby counties of 3,500 Madison, Jefferson, Fremont, and Clark had a combined 3,000 population of 51,900 in 1990 that grew to 59,500 in 20000 – an 2,500 increase of 7,500 persons or

14.5%. 2,000 Madison Co. had the largest population of the four, growing 1,500 from 23,700 to 27,500 during the period. Madison Co, where 1,000 Rexburg and a BYU satellite campus is located, also account for the marked spike in the 500 population ages 18 to 22. This 0 also is where population growth '<1 2 4 6 8 1012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 is most heavily focused. '90 '00

There also was a substantial 4-County Population Change: 1990 to 2000 increase in the number of 1,000 persons in their 40s and 50s, with small decreases in the population 800 of young children and young adults in their late 20s and early 600 to mid 30s.

400

200

0 '>1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84

-200

-400

YBP – Swanson – p. 101 Age Shifts in the Bannock Co. Population by Age: 1990 vs. 2000 Population of Bannock 1,800 County, Home of Pocatello 1,600

1,400 The population of Bannock County increased from 66,000 to 1,200 75,600 from 1990 to 2000 – an increase of 9,500 persons or 1,000 14.4%. The upper chart shows counts of the population for each 800 year by single age from youngest 600 to oldest.

400 The county’s population growth was concentrated among 200 persons from their early 40s to early 60s or baby boomers, and 0 '<1 2 4 6 8 1012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 among young persons in their '90 '00 teens and 20s. This growth in the population between 18 and 24 was accentuated because of Bannock Co. Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000 the presence of Idaho State 800 University. Some, but not all, of its students get included as 600 permanent residents. There were declines in the number of persons in their 30s and among 400 young children. The county began to see increases in the 200 very young – children under 5 – associated with the echo group 0 moving toward ages of family '>1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 formation and child-rearing. -200

-400

YBP – Swanson – p. 102 Age Shifts in the Rural Population by Age in 4 Surrounding Counties: 1990 vs. 2000 Area Population 1,800 Surrounding Pocatello 1,600 The population of the four surrounding counties of Bingham, 1,400

Caribou, Franklin, and Bear Lake 1,200 grew from 59,900 in 1990 to

66,800 in 2000 – an increase of 1,000 6,900 persons or 11.6%. Bingham has the largest 800 population among the four with 37,600 persons in 1990 and 600 41,700 in 2000. 400 The upper chart shows counts of the 4-county area population in 200 1990 (blue) and in 2000 (red) by 0 single age from youngest to '<124681012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 oldest. The under 20 years of '90 '00 age population is a relatively large share of the total, when compared with other areas. This 4-County Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000 may reflect a large Mormon 600 population in this sub-area and 500 relatively large families. 400 Growth is heavily focused among 300 persons from their early 40s to late 50s – baby boomers, and 200 among young persons in their 100 teens and early to mid 20s. 0 Declines in population occurred '>1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 among young adults in their 30s -100 and among children 4 to 14 years of age. -200 -300

YBP – Swanson – p. 103 Population Age Shifts in 4-County Jackson Area: Pop. by Age, 1990 vs. 2000 the 4-County Jackson 900 Area 800 There are four counties in the larger region that are heavily 700 centered around the Jackson Hole area – Teton, WY, where 600 Jackson Hole is located; 500 Sublette, WY; Lincoln, WY; and Teton, ID, the single fastest 400 growing county in the 25-county region. The combined population 300 of these four counties increased from 32,100 in 1990 to 44,700 in 200 2000 – an increase in permanent residents of 12,700 or 40% (note: 100 these figures do not consider part-time residents of the area 0 who have not made it their '<124681012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 '90 '00 permanent residence). Largest among these four counties is Teton, WY, with a 1990 Population Change by Age: 1990 to 2000 population of 11,000 and 2000 500 population of 18,000. Second largest is Lincoln Co. with 400 populations of 12,600 and 14,600 for these censuses. 300

Growth is most heavily concentrated among adults from 200 ages 40 to 60 – baby boomers, and among young persons in 100 their teens and 20s. These shifts in age composition are largely 0 consistent with what is occurring '>12 4 6 8 1012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 in the other sub-areas of the -100 region.

YBP – Swanson – p. 104 Population Age Shifts in Population by Age in Fremont & Hot Springs Counties: 1990 vs. 2000 Fremont and Hot 900 Springs Counties – the Riverton/Lander Area 800

700 The combined population of Fremont and Hot Springs 600 Counties in the region’s southeast corner increased from 500 38,500 in 1990 to 40,700 in 2000 – an increase of 2,215 persons or 400 6%. Most live in Fremont County which had a population of 33,700 300 in 1990 and 35,800 in 2000. 200

The upper chart shows counts of 100 the population by single age for each period and the lower chart 0 shows changes in the population '<1 2 4 6 8 1012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 '90 '00 over the period for each age.

The area’s growth is focused 2-County Population Change: 1990 to 2000 among persons in their 40s and 300 50s – baby boomers. There also 250 was a small increase in the 200 population among young persons between 14 and 22. Declines 150 occurred in young adults 100 between their mid-20s and late 50 30s and among young children. In both cases, these declines are 0 '>1 2 4 6 8 1012141618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284 quite large and perhaps greater -50 in relative size than in any of the -100 other sub-areas of the region. -150 -200 -250

YBP – Swanson – p. 105