WFRXXX10.1177/1946756716659650World Future ReviewBengston et al. 659650research-article2016 Article World Future Review 1 –25 Alternative Futures for © The Author(s) 2016 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav Forest-Based Nanomaterials: DOI: 10.1177/1946756716659650 An Application of the Manoa wfr.sagepub.com School’s Alternative Futures Method David N. Bengston2, Jim Dator1, Michael J. Dockry2, and Aubrey Yee1 Abstract Forestry and forest products research has entered into a robust research agenda focused on creating nano-sized particles and nanoproducts from wood. As wood-based materials can be sustainably produced, the potential of these renewable products could be limitless and include high-end compostable electronics, paint-on solar panels, and lightweight materials for airplanes and cars. Others warn about potential serious negative health and environmental consequences. Either way, wood-based nanomaterials could disrupt forestry as we know it. This article is a summary and analysis of a collaborative research project exploring the futures of wood-based nanomaterials within the context of the futures of forests and forest management within the United States. We start by describing the history of forestry through the lens of the U.S. Forest Service, then describe nanotechnology in general and wood-based nanocellulose specifically. Next, we outline the Manoa School alternative futures method, and how we used it to design and carry out a “complete futures of x” project. Following the Manoa School approach, we describe four alternative futures for forestry and forest management. We conclude with implications for the future of forestry, forests, and forest-based nanomaterials, as well as a discussion on the implementation of a complete “futures of x” project. Keywords nanotechnology, nanomaterials, forestry, forest products, Manoa School Introduction society’s needs. Foresters view forest products as sustainable because harvested trees can be The vast possibilities of our great future will replaced by new trees. Harvested timber is become realities only if we make ourselves responsible for that future. used for paper, building materials, furniture, and other wood products. Over time and —Gifford Pinchot, First Chief of the U.S. Forest through technological advances, foresters have Service 1University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, USA 2U.S. Forest Services, St. Paul, MN, USA Humans have used forests for millennia for heat, shelter, transportation, ceremony, and Corresponding Author: David N. Bengston, 1992 Folwell Avenue, St. Paul, MN community. Foresters are professionals who 55108, USA. grow and manage forests in response to Email: [email protected] Downloaded from wfr.sagepub.com by guest on August 9, 2016 2 World Future Review used wood at smaller and smaller scales: from Department of Agriculture Forest Service, whole logs (e.g., log cabins and dugout Northern Research Station, Strategic Foresight canoes), lumber, plywood, particleboard, Group, St. Paul, Minnesota, and two futures paper, and chemicals. Over the last several researchers Jim Dator and Aubrey Yee of the centuries, foresters have provided these prod- Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, ucts by learning and adapting forestry tech- Department of Political Science, University of niques to reflect societal needs, technological Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu. The project is changes, and the underlying ecological sys- noteworthy not only because of what the tems. Today, cutting-edge forest products “complete futures of x” approach of the research is centered on creating nano-sized Manoa School of Futures Studies illuminated particles from wood. The potential of these about the futures of nanoforestry but also new renewable products could be vast and because of the way in which the project was include high-end compostable electronics, organized and run. paint-on solar panels, and lightweight materi- In addition to the substantive focus on four als for airplanes and cars. Others warn about alternative futures of nanoforestry, one of the possible serious negative health and environ- goals of the project was to help forestry futur- mental consequences of all nanotechnologies. ists to acquire mastery of the alternative futures Either way, forest products scientists believe of x method itself by using it to guide research that forest-based nanomaterials could disrupt into an area of substantive concern to the forestry as we know it. There could be dra- Forest Service. This is very much in keeping matic changes in the forests themselves, our with the preference of the Hawaii Research societies, and our relationships to the forest Center for Futures Studies to help enable cli- and each other as a result of emerging ents to become futurists themselves—to learn nanotechnologies. how to engage in rigorous study of alternative This article is a summary and analysis of a futures and then to actually incorporate futures collaborative futures research project exploring theories and methods into their ongoing the futures of wood-based nanomaterials within work—rather than merely hiring some outside the context of the futures of forests and forest futures group to “tell” them what “the future” management generally in the United States. We “will be.” start by describing the history of forestry through Jim Dator has had a lifetime of experience in the lens of the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), then futures studies at the most local and most global proceed to describe nanotechnology in general levels, theoretical and applied. Aubrey Yee is and wood-based nanocellulose specifically. completing writing her PhD dissertation after Next, we outline the Manoa School alternative four years of graduate study in the Alternative futures method, and how we used it to design and Futures Option of the Department of Political carry out a “complete futures of x” project (where Science; she also has experience with the practi- “x” is the subject of the futures inquiry). cal application of futures research as a team Following the Manoa School approach, we member of various projects of the Hawaii describe four alternative futures for forestry and Research Center for Futures Studies of the forest management. We conclude with implica- University of Hawaii at Manoa. tions for the future of forestry, forests, and forest- At the same time, neither David Bengston based nanomaterials, as well as a discussion on nor Michael Dockry is new to futures studies. the implementation of a complete “futures of x” Both have been members of the Strategic project. Foresight Group within the Forest Service for several years, and have published reports of The Project Team their work in both futures and forestry litera- ture. They desired to add knowledge of and The project team included two social scien- experience with the theories and methods of tists and environmental futurists David the Manoa School to the bag of theories and Bengston and Michael Dockry from the U.S. techniques they had already mastered. Downloaded from wfr.sagepub.com by guest on August 9, 2016 Bengston et al. 3 The research on the project began in USFS History September 2014 and ended in July 2015. Except for two days when three of the four All good futures research starts by understand- researchers gave a joint progress report on ing the history of whatever the object of study their work at a meeting of the World Future is. We started this project by looking to the past Society in San Francisco in July 2015, the four of U.S. forestry to understand the historical researchers never met face-to-face. Instead, drivers of change influencing forestry, the the four held virtual meetings of about two USFS, and how those drivers influenced our hours each about every week or two via Adobe current understanding of forest products. Connect throughout the project period. Each The USFS was founded in 1905 on the basis of progressive ideals and science-based manage- worked on research assignments related to the 1 project during the week and reported on the ment beliefs of the time. Specifically, the USFS results during the virtual meetings. New tasks was founded for two basic reasons. The first was were then identified and reported on subse- to provide sustainable timber supplies for the quently. While Jim Dator directed the flow of United States. The second was to protect water- work overall, because of the experience and sheds and prevent flooding caused by massive cut and run logging operations that were common at expertise of all four members, the process was 2 quite collaborative. the turn of the last century. Indeed, in 1911, the Eastern National Forests were formed with a goal of restoring the land to its earlier conditions. Introduction to the U.S. Fire has always been a driving force within 3 Forest Service and Forestry the agency. One of the best-known American icons is Smokey Bear with his famous admoni- The USFS is an agency within the Department of tion that “only you can prevent forest fires.” Agriculture with the motto: “Caring for the Land Smokey’s campaign against wildfires is per- and Serving People.” Its stated mission is “To sus- haps the most successful public information tain the health, diversity, & productivity of the program of all time.4 With the considerable Nation’s forests and grasslands to meet the needs increase in forest fires caused by the increas- of present and future generations.” The USFS is ingly apparent effects of climate change, a the largest agency within the Department of massive buildup of biomass fuels in forests Agriculture, with over thirty thousand employees. due to many decades of aggressive fire sup- pression, and growing forest insect and disease USFS Organization problems, controlling forest fires is consuming an increasing amount of the Forest Service’s There are three branches within the USFS. The resources, prompting new ideas about the role largest and best-known branch is the National of wildfires and humans’ response to them.5 Forest System. There are 155 national forests in With its early focus on science-based man- forty-four states and Puerto Rico that manage agement, conservation, and later on forest prod- about 193 million acres of forest and grassland.