WFRXXX10.1177/1946756716659650World Future ReviewBengston et al. research-article6596502016

Article

World Future Review 25–­ 1 Alternative Futures for © The Author(s) 2016 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav Forest-Based Nanomaterials: DOI: 10.1177/1946756716659650 An Application of the Manoa wfr.sagepub.com School’s Alternative Futures Method

David N. Bengston2, Jim Dator1, Michael J. Dockry2, and Aubrey Yee1

Abstract Forestry and forest products research has entered into a robust research agenda focused on creating nano-sized particles and nanoproducts from wood. As wood-based materials can be sustainably produced, the potential of these renewable products could be limitless and include high-end compostable electronics, paint-on solar panels, and lightweight materials for airplanes and cars. Others warn about potential serious negative health and environmental consequences. Either way, wood-based nanomaterials could disrupt forestry as we know it. This article is a summary and analysis of a collaborative research project exploring the futures of wood-based nanomaterials within the context of the futures of forests and forest management within the United States. We start by describing the history of forestry through the lens of the U.S. Forest Service, then describe nanotechnology in general and wood-based nanocellulose specifically. Next, we outline the Manoa School alternative futures method, and how we used it to design and carry out a “complete futures of x” project. Following the Manoa School approach, we describe four alternative futures for forestry and forest management. We conclude with implications for the future of forestry, forests, and forest-based nanomaterials, as well as a discussion on the implementation of a complete “futures of x” project.

Keywords nanotechnology, nanomaterials, forestry, forest products, Manoa School

Introduction society’s needs. Foresters view forest products as sustainable because harvested trees can be The vast possibilities of our great future will replaced by new trees. Harvested timber is become realities only if we make ourselves responsible for that future. used for paper, building materials, furniture, and other wood products. Over time and —Gifford Pinchot, First Chief of the U.S. Forest through technological advances, foresters have Service 1University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, USA 2U.S. Forest Services, St. Paul, MN, USA Humans have used forests for millennia for heat, shelter, transportation, ceremony, and Corresponding Author: David N. Bengston, 1992 Folwell Avenue, St. Paul, MN community. Foresters are professionals who 55108, USA. grow and manage forests in response to Email: [email protected]

Downloaded from wfr.sagepub.com by guest on August 9, 2016  World Future Review 2 used wood at smaller and smaller scales: from Department of Agriculture Forest Service, whole logs (e.g., log cabins and dugout Northern Research Station, Strategic Foresight canoes), lumber, plywood, particleboard, Group, St. Paul, Minnesota, and two futures paper, and chemicals. Over the last several researchers Jim Dator and Aubrey Yee of the centuries, foresters have provided these prod- Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, ucts by learning and adapting forestry tech- Department of Political Science, University of niques to reflect societal needs, technological Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu. The project is changes, and the underlying ecological sys- noteworthy not only because of what the tems. Today, cutting-edge forest products “complete futures of x” approach of the research is centered on creating nano-sized Manoa School of Futures Studies illuminated particles from wood. The potential of these about the futures of nanoforestry but also new renewable products could be vast and because of the way in which the project was include high-end compostable electronics, organized and run. paint-on solar panels, and lightweight materi- In addition to the substantive focus on four als for airplanes and cars. Others warn about alternative futures of nanoforestry, one of the possible serious negative health and environ- goals of the project was to help forestry futur- mental consequences of all nanotechnologies. ists to acquire mastery of the alternative futures Either way, forest products scientists believe of x method itself by using it to guide research that forest-based nanomaterials could disrupt into an area of substantive concern to the forestry as we know it. There could be dra- Forest Service. This is very much in keeping matic changes in the forests themselves, our with the preference of the Hawaii Research societies, and our relationships to the forest Center for Futures Studies to help enable cli- and each other as a result of emerging ents to become futurists themselves—to learn nanotechnologies. how to engage in rigorous study of alternative This article is a summary and analysis of a futures and then to actually incorporate futures collaborative futures research project exploring theories and methods into their ongoing the futures of wood-based nanomaterials within work—rather than merely hiring some outside the context of the futures of forests and forest futures group to “tell” them what “the future” management generally in the United States. We “will be.” start by describing the history of forestry through Jim Dator has had a lifetime of experience in the lens of the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), then futures studies at the most local and most global proceed to describe nanotechnology in general levels, theoretical and applied. Aubrey Yee is and wood-based nanocellulose specifically. completing writing her PhD dissertation after Next, we outline the Manoa School alternative four years of graduate study in the Alternative futures method, and how we used it to design and Futures Option of the Department of Political carry out a “complete futures of x” project (where Science; she also has experience with the practi- “x” is the subject of the futures inquiry). cal application of futures research as a team Following the Manoa School approach, we member of various projects of the Hawaii describe four alternative futures for forestry and Research Center for Futures Studies of the forest management. We conclude with implica- University of Hawaii at Manoa. tions for the future of forestry, forests, and forest- At the same time, neither David Bengston based nanomaterials, as well as a discussion on nor Michael Dockry is new to futures studies. the implementation of a complete “futures of x” Both have been members of the Strategic project. Foresight Group within the Forest Service for several years, and have published reports of The Project Team their work in both futures and forestry litera- ture. They desired to add knowledge of and The project team included two social scien- experience with the theories and methods of tists and environmental futurists David the Manoa School to the bag of theories and Bengston and Michael Dockry from the U.S. techniques they had already mastered.

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The research on the project began in USFS History September 2014 and ended in July 2015. Except for two days when three of the four All good futures research starts by understand- researchers gave a joint progress report on ing the history of whatever the object of study their work at a meeting of the World Future is. We started this project by looking to the past Society in San Francisco in July 2015, the four of U.S. forestry to understand the historical researchers never met face-to-face. Instead, drivers of change influencing forestry, the the four held virtual meetings of about two USFS, and how those drivers influenced our hours each about every week or two via Adobe current understanding of forest products. Connect throughout the project period. Each The USFS was founded in 1905 on the basis of progressive ideals and science-based manage- worked on research assignments related to the 1 project during the week and reported on the ment beliefs of the time. Specifically, the USFS results during the virtual meetings. New tasks was founded for two basic reasons. The first was were then identified and reported on subse- to provide sustainable timber supplies for the quently. While Jim Dator directed the flow of United States. The second was to protect water- work overall, because of the experience and sheds and prevent flooding caused by massive cut and run logging operations that were common at expertise of all four members, the process was 2 quite collaborative. the turn of the last century. Indeed, in 1911, the Eastern National Forests were formed with a goal of restoring the land to its earlier conditions. Introduction to the U.S. Fire has always been a driving force within 3 Forest Service and Forestry the agency. One of the best-known American icons is Smokey Bear with his famous admoni- The USFS is an agency within the Department of tion that “only you can prevent forest fires.” Agriculture with the motto: “Caring for the Land Smokey’s campaign against wildfires is per- and Serving People.” Its stated mission is “To sus- haps the most successful public information tain the health, diversity, & productivity of the program of all time.4 With the considerable Nation’s forests and grasslands to meet the needs increase in forest fires caused by the increas- of present and future generations.” The USFS is ingly apparent effects of climate change, a the largest agency within the Department of massive buildup of biomass fuels in forests Agriculture, with over thirty thousand employees. due to many decades of aggressive fire sup- pression, and growing forest insect and disease USFS Organization problems, controlling forest fires is consuming an increasing amount of the Forest Service’s There are three branches within the USFS. The resources, prompting new ideas about the role largest and best-known branch is the National of wildfires and humans’ response to them.5 Forest System. There are 155 national forests in With its early focus on science-based man- forty-four states and Puerto Rico that manage agement, conservation, and later on forest prod- about 193 million acres of forest and grassland. ucts development, the USFS has always been at Another branch of the USFS is State and the forefront of technological change in forestry Private Forestry. This branch works with all and forest products. Technological innovations nonfederal forest lands. It works closely with have ranged from transportation and logging American state foresters, private forest land technologies that led to advancements in civil owners across the country, and tribes and tribal engineering (roads and bridges) to develop- forest lands. Finally, there is the Research and ments in chemicals and even in the early use of Development branch of the agency. It is one of communication technologies because of the the largest forestry research organizations in range and remoteness of the agency’s responsi- the world, doing research on everything from bilities. Forest Service ranger stations were forest ecology to urban watershed management often communication hubs because they were to paper chemistry and now to wood nanotech- the only places with phone or telegraph lines for nology materials and futures research. hundreds of miles.

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The early decades of the USFS are often possibilities, including manufacturing referred to as the “custodial era,” which nanoscale devices (“infinitesimal machines”), emphasized restoration of devastated forests in manipulating individual atoms, the miniatur- the East and a caretaker role for the national ization of computers, a mechanical surgeon forests in the West.6 World War II marked a that could be swallowed, “a billion tiny facto- watershed for the Forest Service, as the demand ries” that would work together as a system, and for timber and wood products in a rapidly many other ideas.12 Feynman’s lecture was a growing economy catapulted the agency into a vision of a scientific field that did not exist, but new role as a major supplier of lumber and today we call nanotechnology. Feynman’s pulpwood.7 At the same time that timber pro- ideas were viewed as ridiculous at the time: duction grew rapidly on the national forests, an Paul Shlichta of Crystal Research in San Pedro, outdoor recreation boom flooded the forests California, then a materials scientist at the Jet with users who were out of sync with large- Propulsion Laboratory, heard the talk. “The scale production of timber and clear-cutting. general reaction was amusement. Most of the The rise of the modern environmental move- audience thought he was trying to be funny,” ment in the 1960s and 1970s set the stage for a he recalls.”13 series of major clashes between those who In 1986, Eric Drexler published a book that favored preservation and proponents of indus- moved Feynman’s vision forward: Engines of trial forestry.8 Eventually, the Forest Service, Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology.14 other resource management agencies, and leg- Nanotechnology is truly small. The word islation began to respond to changing societal “nano” means “one-billionth,” so one nanome- values, growing scientific knowledge, and ter is one-billionth of a meter. A sheet of paper evolving resource management experience to is about one hundred thousand nanometers usher in the current era of ecosystem manage- thick. And one nanometer is about as long as ment on the national forests.9 your fingernail grows in one second. Finally, while many, perhaps most, organi- In Engines of Creation, Drexler described zations have short time horizons, the USFS is the potential power of tiny self-replicating naturally oriented toward the long run as the machines that could be created at the size of a lifetimes of most trees is many decades or cen- molecule, and then set loose to do whatever turies, and forests persist for eons. The USFS they were designed to do, free from human has a long history of carrying out long-term intervention. The subheadings of Drexler’s forecasts and assessments.10 One consequence book show what he considered to be the poten- was that the Forest Service was among the first tial of nanotechnology: Engines of construc- U.S. agencies to experience and seek to deal tion—Engines of abundance—Thinking with the consequences of global warming and machines—Engines of healing—Dangers and climate change. It, thus, is natural for the hopes—Engines of destruction. Forest Service to understand the utility of From the very beginning, Drexler recog- futures studies, and to incorporate some of its nized the potentially Faustian nature of nano- theories and methods into its routine. technology—for construction and abundance, or for destruction and a world of nothing but Nanotechnology—A Potential “gray goo” (a term used to describe what life Game Changer on Earth might become if self-replicating nanomachines got out of control and consumed The origins of the idea of nanotechnology can all matter while building more of themselves). be traced to a 1959 lecture by Nobel Prize win- Drexler created the Foresight Institute to ning physicist Richard Feynman,11 in which he encourage research into nanotechnology. described what could result from learning how However, his ideas were initially scorned and to control single atoms and molecules. viewed as a ridiculous fantasy (which is the Feynman did not use the term nanotechnology way that all powerful new ideas about the in this visionary talk, but he described many future are initially viewed).

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The journal Science is perhaps the most nano form, causing many nanomaterials to slip authoritative source for cutting-edge science in through the cracks.21 the United States. The first time nanotechnol- In 2013, Drexler hit the news again with his ogy was mentioned in Science was in 1989.15 latest book, the title of which sums up the rev- In 1991, Science published several articles olutionary potential of nanotechnology: about nanotechnology. One, about Drexler, Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in quoted him saying that nanotechnology “will Nanotechnology Will Change Civilization.22 bring changes as profound as the industrial The term radical abundance refers to produc- revolution, antibiotics, and nuclear weapons ing radically more of what people want at a all in one.”16 drastically lower cost, using atomically precise The U.S. Office of Technology Assessment, manufacturing. If Drexler-type nanotechnol- created by Congress to examine the possible ogy proves feasible, anything and everything social and environmental consequences of is a resource, nothing is a waste, and the old emerging technologies, published a report titled world of scarcity will be over, as will be the old “Miniaturization Technologies,” also in 1991.17 ways of producing . . . everything—food, But it was not until 1999, when President clothing, automobiles, buildings, people— Clinton called for greatly increased research in well, everything. As the originator of the idea nanotechnology, along with a $500 million bud- of nanotechnology, Richard Feynman said get—and especially when President Bush many years ago, “there is plenty of room at the signed the “21st Century Nanotechnology bottom.”23 This is grassroots, decentralized, Research and Development Act” in 2003, which individualized development at its finest and provided even more substantial funding—that most powerful—or at its most utterly danger- many scientists turned their attention to nano- ous and irresponsible. technology. The strategic plan that accompa- Or perhaps it is nothing but really cool engi- nied the National Nanotechnology Initiative in neering at very small scales, and neither espe- 2014 further encouraged nanotech research and cially dangerous or transformative at all. applications in all areas—including forestry. Critics of nanotechnology express urgent The Challenge and Opportunity of health and environmental concerns similar to Nanotechnology for Forestry those about asbestos, genetically modified organisms (GMO), and synthetic biology. In 2006, the Forest Products Laboratory, part Nanotechnologies are growing rapidly in com- of the USFS Research and Development mercial applications, including medicine, cos- branch, joined twenty-seven other U.S. federal metics, electronics, and environmental agencies in the National Nanotechnology cleanups. Estimates of the number of nano- Initiative, and began to lead the forest products technology-based consumer products currently industry into a new field of research that was on the market range from 1,60018 to more than dominated by nanomaterials derived from 2,80019 and growing. But little is known about sources other than wood, such as metals and potential adverse effects on human health and petroleum. The 2005 Roadmap outlined the the natural environment. Nanotoxicology is an direction that the forest products industry emerging and rapidly developing discipline should take to transform itself into becoming with the goal of evaluating the safety of engi- leaders in nanoproducts derived from wood.24 neered nanostructures and nanodevices.20 But Figure 1 is a diagram of the scale of wood, many safety questions remain unanswered. decreasing from the whole tree down to the Nanoparticles are more biologically active nanometer scale. We first used whole trees than larger-sized particles of the same chemis- (and roughhewn planks) for construction such try because they have greater surface area per as for dugout canoes, ship masts, and log cab- mass. But if the traditional larger particle has ins. Then, we developed sawmills and other already been assessed for adverse effects, it wood processing technology that created first may not require further testing by regulators in lumber, then plywood, and then particleboard.

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Figure 1. Wood from the whole tree to the nanoscale. Source: http://www.nano.gov/sites/default/files/usforestproductsindustryandnanotechnology-usda.pdf)

We have made paper from wood cells, as well transform the forest products industry and as chemicals from wood and tree extracts. impact almost every aspect of our economies. Alston25 refers to the long-term process of Wood nanomaterials are being looked at for technological change in forest products lead- sustainable 3D printing. They are also being ing to breaking wood down into smaller and studied for printable and flexible electronics. smaller pieces as the “pulverization” principle. They are being used in the medical and cos- And now we have wood products being cre- metic fields. Scientists are even working on ated from nano-sized particles. This can sim- paintable solar panels and paintable liquid ply be viewed as the next logical extension of crystal display (LCD) screens made from this process of invention, utilization, and wood nanomaterials. miniaturization. Wood nanofilters can function at the molec- In 2012, the Forest Products Lab unveiled a ular level.27 They have implications for indus- congressionally funded pilot plant to produce trial processes and medicine. Military nanomaterials that are now used by scientists applications are widespread, including super around the world.26 Wood nanomaterials are seen lightweight and strong body armor. Automotive as a way to make myriad products with a cheap and aerospace applications for flexible, strong, and renewable resource. It is also seen as an envi- cheap, lightweight materials are many, and ronmentally friendly material, naturally occur- should improve safety while increasing fuel ring, and easily recyclable or compostable. efficiency. Finally, wood nanomaterials permit Wood nanomaterials are lightweight, and flexible electronics such as flexible, water- yet have high strength and stiffness properties. proof, recyclable, compostable cell phones, They can be produced sustainably if forests are and compostable solar panels.28 managed well—just like all forest products. Thus, when wood products scientists talk Wood nanomaterials have the potential to about wood-based nanomaterials, they see the

Downloaded from wfr.sagepub.com by guest on August 9, 2016 Bengston et al. 7 sky is the limit, and that this technology does alternative futures teaches a wide variety of have the potential to change almost every futures methods, but a few steadfast, tried and aspect of our lives. We have known that nano- tested rules guide our work in forecasting alter- technology had this potential for decades, but native futures. The first is that the future does wood-based nanomaterials are rather new and not exist. Rather, there are always alternative underappreciated within the larger nano futures with an emphasis on the “s.” Because research world. And, of course, one of the big- the future does not exist, it is not possible to gest appeals of wood nanomaterial is its sus- predict anything. So while you cannot in any tainability—trees can grow and grow and grow, way accurately predict the future, you can fore- providing many ecosystem services while cast alternatives. facilitating the development of nanomaterials. In addition to alternative futures, it is essen- At the same time, opposition to nanotech tial to consider, envision, and plan for pre- research and development is growing, and ferred futures. This collective and participatory along the same lines of opposition to geneti- process is where futures becomes empower- cally modified materials. There are potential ing, enabling communities, organizations, human and environmental health and safety governments, and individuals to think first issues. Most of the research on potential health about possible futures and then the collectively and safety concerns of nanomaterials has desired future in a way that supports action focused on carbon nanostructures, but a grow- toward realizing that preferred image of the ing body of literature examines cellulosic future. This is a process that is iterative and can nanomaterials. For example, exposure to some be embedded in any organization as a repeated types of cellulose nanofibers may result in process, one that you learn from, revisit, revise, decreased cell viability and reductions of algal and support. growth,29 DNA damage,30 and inflammatory What we call Dator’s 2nd law of the future responses in the lungs.31 The potential adverse is perhaps the most famous Manoa School effects of wood-based nanocellulose have export. This is the rule that in a situation of received little attention; most studies to date rapid social and environmental change, “any have examined the health and environmental useful idea about the futures should appear to effects of cellulose nanofibers isolated from be ridiculous.” This is often followed by the cotton, not wood fiber. caveat that not all ridiculous ideas will neces- sarily be useful. Once upon a time, genera- Alternative Futures within a tions could assume that their children’s lives “Complete” Project on the and their grandchildren’s lives after that would Futures of “X” be fairly similar in many ways. Change hap- pened quite slowly. In the twenty-first century, As stated above, one of the goals of this this is no longer true. Change is happening at research project was to enable Bengston and an increasingly rapid pace. We can barely Dockry of the Strategic Foresight Group of the keep up with the pace of technology. And, as USFS to learn about the theories and methods change increases, so does uncertainty. So if of the “Manoa School” of Futures Studies of you are thinking fifty years into the future, the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies you have to imagine that the world may be within the Department of Political Science of quite different, and that most things you imag- the University of Hawaii at Manoa. ine in that future will quite likely appear ridic- Additionally, the authors wanted to describe the ulous by today’s standards. Our values, entire futures of “X” method in this paper to behaviors, and beliefs change with time, and it make it accessible to researchers and futurists is the futurist’s job to think about what these for use in their own projects. The Hawaii changes might look like and what they might Research Center for Futures Studies was estab- mean. In today’s world, we can see that what lished in 1971 and is one of the world’s oldest is one day considered ridiculous, may tomor- futures research centers. The Manoa School of row be old news.

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One of the techniques of the Manoa School past explain why x began, how and is called “researching the complete futures of why it was structured the way it was, ‘x,’” where “x” represents an organization, and how and why it changed (or did not corporation, nonprofit, church, community, change) over time. Very importantly, nation, concept, concern, process, activity, this also means that one does not study technological innovation . . . anything. just x itself, but rather those aspects of A complete set of research activities aimed the environment of x that contributed at determining the preferred futures of x should to the origin, mission, structure, follow this sequence, more or less in this order: change, and continuity of x. Both x and the environment are dynamically inter- 1. Articulation of a theory of social stabil- related and must be studied as such. ity and change that will guide research 4. Description of the present condition of on the futures of x. The theory may be x and of the environment of x in rela- based on biology, environment, cul- tion to those drivers. Current literature ture, technology, decisions/actions/ and thinking about x may contain clues events, or many, many other assump- about possible directions in which it tions. In this study, we assume that could develop in the future. technological change is a major agent 5. Review what others have written about of social stability and change. Other the futures of x. It is important to know futures researchers might use a very what others think about the futures of x different theory. But no one should so one may learn from and improve attempt to make a statement about the upon their work. No sense in reinvent- future of x that is not based upon some ing the wheel, or to presume/pretend kind of an articulated theory of social that you are the first person ever to stability and change. The theory under- have studied the future of your x. In lying this study is explained in greater this project, we conducted an extensive detail in Mutative Media,32 which review of the literature on the future of focuses on changing communication forestry and forest products. Our bibli- technologies, from the origins of ography on this topic is available upon speech to electronic communication request to interested readers. technologies and beyond. 6. Identification of significant drivers 2. Identification of the major driving (also called trends) of the future. These forces (“drivers”) according to the the- trends exhibit possible future values of ory that are important for the creation the historical driving forces. These and evolution of x. According to our trends show in the future what the spe- theory of social change and stability, cific values of the past and present “technology and technological change” driving forces might be. However, it is (as we define it) are the primary agents impossible to “predict” what the spe- of social stability and change, and then cific futures values of these drivers will such things as population, resources, be. Different assumptions about how energy, environment (natural and artifi- the world works lead to different con- cial), culture, language, myths, politi- clusions about the future values of each cal economy, and other drivers, which of the drivers. Thus, each driver is pro- currently are strongly influenced by jected with different values as appro- technological change, become inde- priate for each of the four generic pendent drivers on their own. alternative futures (discussed in Item 8, 3. Research the history of the driving below). This is perhaps the key feature forces in relation to x. This is a crucial of the Manoa School approach to part of the research. Historical research studying the futures of x, in contrast to will show that the main drivers in the the approach of many other futurists.

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7. Identification of emerging issues that 9. Exercise in envisioning one or more might interrupt the trends and/or create preferred futures. When possible and new ones. This is extremely important. appropriate, preferred futures visioning It is the major contribution that a futur- is a group process, involving everyone ist should bring to a forecast. Relying (or representatives of everyone) who on trends to anticipate the futures is will be impacted by the actual futures never sufficient. Identifying as many of x. The wider the participation, the significant emerging issues as possible better. Sometimes, if the futures of x should make the forecasts more useful process involves only a single futures and robust. Emerging issues are similar researcher or research group, and per- to what other futurists may call “wild haps a few people currently active in or cards,” “black swans,” or “weak sig- concerned about x, futures visioning is nals.” However, identifying likely done by only one or a small group of emerging issues, via a method origi- people. But the entire point of the nally proposed by Graham Molitor,33 is futures of x process is to arrive at a a central feature of the futures of x dynamic vision of a preferred futures technique. of x that will be used to guide decisions 8. Creation of alternative futures, accord- concerning x. ing to the four generic images of the 10. Description of preferred futures. There futures as identified by the Manoa are two basic ways the description of a School.34 The four futures (explained in preferred future of x can be generated. the next section) include Grow, If the study is done by a futurist or Collapse (New Beginnings), Discipline, futures research group for his or her and Transformation. The different val- own purposes, or simply to understand ues for each of the driving forces into the futures of x, then the futurist or the future, and the different impacts of futures group will create the description emerging issues, are what make each of of a preferred future of x on their own. the four alternative futures different. Do 11. If the research was being done by a not include anything in any of the four futurist or group for, and with the par- futures that is not either the future trend ticipation of members of, the organiza- of a previously identified driver, or an tion, then, after the general contours of emerging issue. There is a specific set a preferred future for x have been iden- of different assumptions about drivers tified, a small representative group of and emerging issues for each of the four people within x will work together generic images of the future. The four (preferably with but possibly without futures were determined as the result of the futurist) to craft a relatively detailed intensive empirical research35 and, thus, description of that vision, so that should be followed carefully. They are designers, planners, and policy makers the “factual” basis of the forecast. can then create designs, plans, and pol- However, many of the details of each of icies that can be used to guide x toward the four futures are a consequence of the preferred future. choices the futurist makes in describing 12. Development of a strategic design or the futures. Nonetheless, there should plan and sector designs, plans, and be a “factual” basis underlying every potential policies based on the pre- feature of each future. That is, there ferred futures so that they are robust/ must be some research paper or other resilient in regard to all four alternative evidence supporting each detail of each futures as well. This should be done by of the four futures. The futurist does not professional designers, planners, and “make them up,” as a fiction writer policy makers who have been actively might. involved in the prior futures process so

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that they fully understand the rationale feel unable to make significant change behind the preferred future. Otherwise, when it is needed. latecomers may sabotage the entire 16. Institutionalization of futures research, effort by ignoring parts or all of the continuing scanning, and periodic repeat- preferred future. Ideally, the futurist/ ing of the entire process. This is also one futures group should be involved in the of the most important elements in the designing/planning/policy-making entire process. Unless futures scanning process, and sometimes a futurist orga- and reevaluation of preferred futures is a nization is able to devise designs, routine, rewarded, and respected part of plans, and policies on its own without x, it might be fun for the few involved in additional professional assistance. a futures of x process, but will probably 13. Identify specific personnel, policies, have no lasting impact on x itself. and funds for carrying out the plans and policies, with appropriate over- For this ongoing project, we have to date sight and review. When these steps are completed the first eight steps in the sequence. not taken to begin moving x toward the preferred future, the process often The Four Generic Images of becomes a paper exercise only and the Futures does not move the institution toward the goal of the preferred future. The idea of alternative futures embraces the 14. Day-to-day management of the process possibility of infinite alternatives, all of which to carry out the plan to move toward the are possible, not one of which is truly more preferred future. Achieving the goals probable than any other. We often want to resulting from the futures process work think that one future is more probable, but we best when the process of moving toward need only look to history to realize how often the preferred future becomes the gen- things turn out quite differently than we eral responsibility of everyone involved expected. To help us manage all of these infi- with x, and the specific responsibility of nite possibilities and create useful scenarios, personnel working within x. Dator developed four futures archetypes. The 15. Periodic evaluation of the preferred archetypes resulted from analyzing a huge futures and plans by both internal and number of images of the future in media and external participants. Futures are story. He saw that consistently these images highly volatile. What seemed like a tended to fall into one of four general catego- preferred future (or features of the ries. These categories or archetypes are not alternative futures) at one time, for cer- meant to constrain a scenario, but rather to tain people, may not be preferred later, guide the scenario, and to help us as futurists to or by different personnel. A preferred get out of the “tyranny of the present” to envi- future is a guiding vision in relation to sion truly different alternatives. the four alternative futures, it is not an The first archetype is Continued Growth (or, ironclad blueprint that must be fol- simply “Grow”). This future anticipates a sig- lowed without further consideration. nificant amount of change for the better in While the process of determining a pre- many aspects of life. Those things that some ferred future for x must be respected people might consider to be negative problems and the outcomes followed, opportuni- are seen instead as new opportunities for ties for reevaluating the alternative and growth in new areas. Grow is the most common preferred futures of x must be provided way that almost all organizations, governments, with sufficient frequency and influence and even individuals envision their future— that personnel affiliated with x become mostly the same as the present, but more and neither tired of the futures process, nor potentially better. While Grow typically implies

Downloaded from wfr.sagepub.com by guest on August 9, 2016 Bengston et al. 11 increased economic development, it also very and religious orders, believing that by disci- much includes the diffuse challenges enlivened plining themselves, they achieve higher values by increasing growth. Getting people to envi- than they will if they live “freely” without self sion a future other than Continued Growth can and external restraints. often be one of the most important and difficult The fourth archetype, Transformation (or aspects of being a futurist as most institutions “Transform”), is based on the idea that a tech- of modern society (especially education, gover- nological and/or spiritual revolution will pro- nance, and, of course, the economy) are aimed duce a future so profoundly different from at promoting growth, usually economic growth anything humans have ever experienced that and population growth. the world as we know it now will seem unrec- The second archetype is Collapse, and it is ognizable. According to transformational based in the belief that economic, environmen- images of the future, humanity experiences a tal, government, and social systems as we total metamorphosis—the caterpillar becomes know them are seriously unsustainable and a butterfly. Old-fashioned Homo sapiens may will partially or fully collapse. While apoca- no longer be at the center of life, or perhaps lyptic images of the future are popular today, even survive in their present form. Instead, collapse scenarios are not inherently negative, various forms of humans, post-humans, bad, or strenuous. As easy as it is to imagine cyborgs, and artilects coexist: the singularity is various ways in which humanity might go realized.36 extinct, it seems hard for some people to imag- By doing historical research, horizon scan- ine ways in which humans might in fact thrive ning for trends and emerging issues that pro- following catastrophe and crisis, even though vide a deepened understanding of the specific history certainly offers many examples. We issues potentially facing the USFS and nano- call this positive version of collapse “New technology research, we collectively designed Beginnings.” Many people and organizations four alternative futures of nanotechnology in argue that a collapse of current systems could forestry. The resulting scenarios are not allow us to start fresh and reimagine how we intended to represent any of our “preferred might better coexist with one another and with futures,” although we may choose elements of the planet. them to become part of a preferred future. At A third archetype is Discipline. One version this point in the research, we are most con- of the Discipline archetype is based on the idea cerned with exploring truly alternative futures. that we can and might avoid environmental, The scenarios follow, written from the per- social, economic, or cultural collapse by spective of the year 2050. restraining our behaviors so that we become sustainable in all these areas. However, while Scenario 1: Grow Future sustainable futures are inherently disciplined, not all disciplined scenarios are sustainable. In retrospect, the relative ease with which Other versions of a disciplined image of the events have unfolded and stayed on track is future say that even if continued growth can be probably the most surprising and striking fea- made sustainable in terms of resources and the ture of the past several decades. From the eco- environment, continued economic growth by nomic low point earlier in the twenty-first its very nature destroys certain basic values century, the turnaround in the U.S. economy that should instead be the basis of a good life. was slow at first but eventually picked up Discipline may imply authoritarianism, but a momentum and just kept rolling along. Growth discipline society can also be designed so that in the United States and global economies was educational, institutional, structural, and simi- fueled by an unstoppable energy revolution lar systems encourage people to live peaceful, made possible by opening vast new petroleum meaningful lives without the ceaseless demand sources in the warming Arctic and Antarctic, for growth. Indeed, even now, many people by deep seabed drilling, shale gas fracking, willingly join communities, such as churches and expanded nuclear fission. At the same

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time, clever entrepreneurs were quick to learn immediately, while others are taking longer how to profit handsomely from what once was to become effective. But massive geoengi- called “alternative” or “renewable” energy neering projects are clearly one of the suc- sources, such as solar, wind, geothermal, ocean cess stories of recent decades and the thermal energy conversion (OTEC), and the probable future. like. These are all now part of a single, At the same time, very rapid and substantial dynamic, global energy grid. sea level rise has proven to be a continual spur Abundant and once again relatively cheap to innovative responses, leading to miles of energy provided the stimulus needed to finally megastructures that hold back the rising tides shake off the last vestiges of the Depression of in some parts of the world, and to coastal the late 2010s and early 2020s and get the development that is built so as to welcome the economy moving forward. At the same time, advancing water, either by floating above it or steady technological progress in many fields sinking below the billowing waves. American resulted in the creation of tens of millions of entrepreneurs are leading the way in utilizing direct and indirect jobs in the late 2020s. the oceans and especially the ocean floor as a Balancing steady economic growth enabled vast field of abundant resources and a new by cheap energy with environmental sustain- venue for human settlement, habitation, and ability has been a continuing challenge. There exploitation. has been increasing pollution of Earth and air, Even more important than the developments along with wave after wave of harmful and relying on mega-engineering are advances in costly nonnative invasive species, accelerating micro-miniaturization: biotechnology, nano- extinctions, degradation or exhaustion of some technology, artificial intelligence, synthetic natural resources, severe local water shortages, biology, artificial photosynthesis, and other less reliable food systems due to more volatile areas that opened new avenues for economic weather and climate, and more. More sprawl in growth, creating vast new industries and revi- the ever-growing wildland-urban interface talizing old ones. Moore’s law continues. This continues to gobble up natural areas. There has is one reason why past fears about massive been a steady increase in atmospheric CO and technological unemployment have proven to be 2 accelerating climate change. No one now unfounded—new labor-saving technologies do denies that the climate is changing—the his- displace large numbers of workers in many toric sea level rise of the 2030s and massive fields and many types of occupations, but damage to coastal areas put an end to that entirely new industries and many entirely new debate! jobs are created. More intrusive technologies By 2050, climate change reached the high (and larger human populations) disrupt ecosys- end of past projections and continues to accel- tems, evoking the necessity of active and pro- erate due to melting permafrost in both polar active human management of once “natural” regions, releasing growing amounts of processes. Sustainability and resilience science methane. has matured to deal with unanticipated techno- But this has not led to doom, gloom, and logical impacts on environments that are now despair! Neither has it been a damper on con- recognized as being almost entirely artificial. tinued economic growth. To the contrary, pri- In the United States, population growth, vate enterprise and an exuberant entrepreneurial greater personal wealth, growing multiple and spirit have enabled us to grasp these develop- seasonal homeownership, amenity migration, ments as new opportunities for even more and interregional population shifts away from spectacular economic growth and prosperity. the warming West and Southeast to the more For example, there have been many differ- temperate climates in the Midwest and Far ent plans for geoengineering to reduce the North have created new challenges for forest greenhouse effect—or, better yet—to use the management, as has continued fragmentation “pollutants” as resources for further growth. of private forest ownerships resulting in ever- Some schemes have been successful smaller parcels of forest land. The share of

Downloaded from wfr.sagepub.com by guest on August 9, 2016 Bengston et al. 13 urban and suburban populations has grown to Human modification of the environment is more than 90 percent of the United States not new—not something that Western civiliza- total, with about 50 percent of the population tion alone has done. The evidence is abundantly living in megaregions or megalopolises— clear that environmental modification is a defin- gigantic chains of roughly adjacent metropoli- ing feature of humanity from the very beginning. tan areas stretching from north to south, east What is new now is simply the large numbers of to west, and everywhere else throughout the humans on the planet and the increasing sophisti- nation. cation of technology that humans have created— Endless waves of large homes were built in and, most important of all, the growing realization the wildland-urban interface (WUI), greatly that, because we created it, we are now responsi- complicating wildland firefighting and conser- ble for managing and recreating our garden. vation of biodiversity. Globally, tropical defor- Biotechnologies, nanotechnologies, and artificial estation continued in the most ecologically intelligence greatly assist us in fulfilling our important, biologically rich forests, even as responsibilities here. world forest cover remained constant due to The secret to humanity’s success has been massive expansion of plantation forestry. its knowledge of science and technology, with The area burned by wildfires in the United mathematics the language of both. Science has States and globally is considerably larger than shown us the vision forward while technology anticipated at the start of the century and the has enabled us to move toward the vision— extent of annual damage continues to escalate. whereupon science then unveils newer, even Indeed, firefighting consumed so much of more compelling visions that new technolo- Congress’s appropriations for the Forest gies enable us to achieve. Service that a separate continental firefighting So, yes, there have been many people opposed agency was created with the United States, to the developments that science and technology Canada, and Mexico as climate change com- of recent decades made possible—mega-engi- bined with urban sprawl to multiply the fre- neering on one hand and micro-miniaturized quency, size, and intensity of wildfires. bionanotechnologies on the other. There have When research at the USFS Forest Products been concerns about new and renewed diseases, Lab and elsewhere finally pushed the cost of social inequity, irreversible damage—and, in wood-based nanomaterials below $3/pound in truth, we all have had our share of problems. But, 2025, the effects on forestry and the forest overall, most of us are more than content to be products sector were profound. The shift from caretakers in the new gardens of our creation, and nonrenewable petroleum-based materials to visionaries of newer ones, instead of barely sur- renewable wood-based materials in everything viving while cowering in the caves of our inno- from cars to computers was slow at first but cent childhood’s wilderness. has grown relentlessly. The applications of cel- Sources for the Grow Future are in the lulose nanomaterials seem to be endless: com- appendix. posites and foams for automotive, aerospace, and building construction; plastics alterna- Scenario 2: Collapse (New Beginning) tives; additives for paper, packaging, paints, plastics, cement, food, and pharmaceuticals; Future textiles for health care and clothing; insulation; I went to the woods because I wished to live coatings; viscosity modifiers; oil and gas drill- deliberately, to front only the essential facts of ing fluids; cosmetics; flexible and compostable life, and see if I could not learn what it had to electronics; and much more. 3D printing with teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that wood nanomaterials has meant that almost I had not lived. I did not wish to live what was not life, living is so dear; nor did I wish to anything can be custom made on demand. An practice resignation, unless it was quite explosion of planting fast-growing, genetically necessary. I wanted to live deep and suck out all modified trees to satisfy the demand for wood the marrow of life, to live so sturdily and fiber took place in the 2030s. Spartan-like as to put to rout all that was not life,

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to cut a broad swath and shave close, to drive life been cleared for attempted agriculture or into a corner, and reduce it to its lowest terms. cleared for wood and other resources that were —Henry David Thoreau, Walden: Or Life in the needed to survive. Pressures to save forests Woods and forest creatures as climate induced extinc- tions mounted led many to accept the necessity The new beginnings scenario follows the of genetic engineering of flora and fauna. This threads of crises currently facing humanity at move to accelerate genetic engineering (GE) the start of the twenty-first century. From cli- technologies was met with equally strident mate change (both gradual and abrupt), resistance, and, in many places, the resistance increasing food and water insecurity, threats of turned violent. The nanotechnology labs of the bioterrorism, overpopulation pressures, world- USFS were attacked many times by radical wide species extinction, rapidly converging anti-GE and anti-Nano activists. As the fund- disruptive technologies such as nanotechnol- ing for the Forest Service dried up, protecting ogy and synthetic biology, humanity currently and maintaining the labs became logistically faces massive tsunamis of potentially cata- and financially impossible, and all research strophic change. Indeed, if the fears of run- was halted. But that did not mean the effects of away reproductive nanotechnology these technologies just disappeared. Today, materialize, rendering everything in the planet remnants from the biotech and nanotech boom potentially nothing but “Gray Goo,” nanotech- in the early to mid-twenty-first century still nology itself could become the prime driver of haunt the planet. These are creatures big and collapse without any help from anything else. small created from the best science had to offer If even only some of these converging cri- before we realized how much harm they could ses continue unabated, or increase in scope and do to people, nonhuman life, and the environ- scale, we will face a very different world in ment as a whole. These animals, bacteria, and 2050. Future generations may inherit a planet nanoparticles still roam, procreate, mutate, and with intensely decreased worldwide popula- live alongside remaining humans. tions, scarce natural resources, severely hostile As peak oil was reached, a rush for wood climates. The collapse of many social and eco- biomass to replace oil further degraded remain- nomic institutions that exist today is clearly in ing forests faster than they could be replaced. the realm of possibility for the future. This is a This happened globally, but because of the low-tech future and the technology and society energy intense nature of travel and transport, that fostered the collapse have been trans- there is more competition for locally derived formed from a global economic model to a wood than world-wide competition. Energy in more localized sharing and needs-based econ- this future is scarce and unreliable, making omy. Manufacturing is done at small scales, many formerly common activities and life- with local resources, and limited to bare styles nearly impossible. The former United necessities. States central government failed in a progres- This collapsed world, while in many ways sive series of collapses of multiple social and bleak, need not spell the end of humanity and economic systems. Because wood became one in some ways can be seen as an opportunity for of the main energy sources after peak oil, the a new beginning, a clean slate from which termination of the Forest Service along with humans can rebuild and learn from our previ- the central government was followed by severe ous mistakes. With forests and forest creatures degradation of forest ecosystems through threatened, their protection in this future will unregulated timber harvests and myriad envi- not only be more critical than ever but it will ronmental changes. be more difficult than ever because the institu- The still critical Forest Service mission—to tions that once managed and conserved these protect and safeguard precious resources while areas and precious resources have largely been maintaining sustainable use of those resources— disbanded after falling into disarray. Forests in now rests in the hands of a dedicated, passionate most parts of what was the United States have group of community members who patrol highly

Downloaded from wfr.sagepub.com by guest on August 9, 2016 Bengston et al. 15 localized regions of the last remaining forests. city-states relates more to providing cultural They call themselves the Community-Based and social norms rather than strict enforce- Foresters Guild and operate from an ethos of ment. While there continues to be diversity in stewardship and deep commitment to the for- cultures, size, and location within the new city- ests. It is not uncommon that these dedicated states, they share the common belief that order volunteers face serious danger in the form of and discipline are required to maintain healthy fire, poaching, or bandits. They are loosely orga- human communities and a stable environment. nized and struggle to counter the increasing People in these societies work together collab- pressures of wildlife poaching and illegal timber oratively, and governance is decentralized. harvest taking place at the hands of often desper- Order and discipline are espoused by the cen- ate people. It is a difficult and dangerous com- tral government and actively administered, mitment, but with so little of the natural world applied, and enforced at the local level. remaining and survival a daily reality, passion Agriculture is radically different from the and purpose drive the volunteers to protect what inefficient production of the early twenty-first remains for the future. century. Agriculture is thousands of times Efforts such as those of the Community- more efficient in producing protein, calories, Based Foresters are the foundation for rebuild- and nutrients needed to sustain population cen- ing society in this brave new world. With ters. Most people eat plants supplemented with communication and travel across distance the occasional wild harvested animal. Protein much more difficult than before, highly local- from plants is indistinguishable from farm ized communities are the basis of governance, raised meat and poultry, and most people are and the healthy functioning of a community vegetarians. Farm raised fish and algae are also determines the health of the forest and natural common. Range animals such as cows are no resources available to that community. longer raised due to cheaper replacements for Sources supporting this Collapse Future are meat, cultural attitudes, and the energy costs to listed in the appendix. produce. Because agriculture has intensified and Scenario 3: Discipline Future because human population has decreased and moved together into self-sustaining communi- The United States has become less a collection ties, forests are beginning to recover after once of states and more of a collection of autono- nearing the brink of extinction. Land previ- mous city-states. In the early twenty-first cen- ously used for agriculture and suburban sprawl tury, civil strife, violent social protests and has now returned to forest, with food grown in rioting, breakdown of local police and civil highly organized and concentrated grow-zones order, environmental disasters, and other and housing consolidated to provide maximum mega-disturbances, including floods, droughts, density in an urban core. Communities and for- wildfires, and hurricanes, have caused the peo- ests exist in close proximity. Agricultural pro- ple of the United States to come together under duction, agroforestry, and trees are all a new governmental structure focused on strict integrated into the new cities. The forests now adherence to order, discipline, and sustainabil- include many introduced species, genetically ity. The Forest Service led the transformation modified or synthetically born species, as well to a twenty-first century system of government as “native” plants and animals. There is a based on efficiency, science, and renewable decrease in biodiversity of old but an increase technologies based on trees and plants. Gifford of genetic diversity as GMOs mix with non- Pinchot’s axiom of the greatest good for the GMOs. Wildlife such as white-tailed deer, greatest number in the long run and objective eastern cotton-tail rabbits, and various rodents scientific truth serve as national mottos. are plentiful but not too abundant because they This is a decentralized society, much like are heavily hunted and regulated by the local the earliest years of the USFS. There is a cen- government. Wood is used for almost every- tralized government but its control over the thing, and forests and tree farms are heavily

Downloaded from wfr.sagepub.com by guest on August 9, 2016  World Future Review 16 managed and intensively used for food, energy, The main features of Akua are material abun- and materials by each city’s population. dance, instantaneous mobility, and dynamic This is a high-tech future, and the technology intelligent complexity, made possible when the has fostered the transition from global economics nanotechnology projects of the USFS and to a localized sharing and collaborative economy. many others not only met, but vastly exceeded, Manufacturing facilities that are small scale and Drexler’s wildest dreams. local allow communities to manufacture the Akua is an entirely artificial environment, things they need. Communities trade with one the result of nanotechnologically and biosyn- another for specialty items. Renewable wood- thetically modified, geoengineered everything, based nanomaterials combined with improved designed and managed by a variety of cooper- 3D printing technologies have helped make this ating and conflicting autonomous intelligences transition because, now, things can be made on ranging from Homo Ludditus to Homo the spot and on demand. Forest and bio-based Machinus. nanomaterials provide the means of generating By harnessing, via synthetic adenosine tri- electricity, maintain interconnected communica- phosphate (APT), the fundamental electrical tions, and are used to produce lightweight materi- processes of life, energy is free and abundant. als for transportation, clothing, computers, and Participation in the governance of Akua— medicine. rather than in economic production and con- Forestry has become both a science and a sumption—is a main focus of human and sort of religion. This is an era that mirrors the posthuman life. early twentieth-century progressive era where Given its history of environmental care and the principles of scientific regulation, scien- management, the USFS joined with similar tific truth, and government control are para- agencies in the United States and around the mount to bring order, meet material needs, and world as the old nation-states disappeared. regulate social and spiritual lives of the citi- They took the lead in creating and maintaining zens. Local control is strict in this scenario, this complex and dynamic world. Called “The with community leaders bringing harsh pun- Sylvans,” they act on the basis of a few funda- ishments for infractions of the rules. The local mental decisions that are made by consensus control has merged religion with science and after lengthy discussion. sustainability. This future mirrors the early As strict requirements are few, while pre- years of the USFS in terminology, emphasis on ferred values and behavior are many, the local decentralized governance, and the scien- numerous resulting conflicts are resolved not tific control of nature. “District Rangers” are by “laws,” but by quorum-sensing and com- the ultimate enforcers of both social and envi- promise. This system takes a lot of time— ronmental rules. This scenario is all about which everyone has—and does not always go coming together, setting strict limits, and col- smoothly, but most sentients prefer it to the old laborating to make local communities thrive systems of oppressive “laws” decided by and avoid collapse. People have banded “majority rule” and imposed by privileged rul- together to provide for their own food (inten- ers empowered with killing force. sive permaculture), energy (locally produced Preserving and restoring old cultures and solar, wind, water, biomass from trees), and environments is a major focus for most Homo economy. Nanotechnology has played a major Ludditus. They pride themselves in doing the role in shaping this future. trivial and arcane things that the other, newer Sources for this Discipline Future are listed Homo do not do or cannot do—including in the appendix. engaging in diverse religious practices, strenu- ous physical competition for meaningless Scenario 4: Transform Future prizes, mastering obscure languages and aca- demic disciplines, and the like. Welcome to Akua, a vast, lifelike networking Akua is the Anthropocene Epoch on system composed of Terra, Luna, and Mars. steroids.

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Akua is a Hawaiian word that is frequently of the main drivers, trends, and emerging translated as “god.” However, an old Vocabulary issues illustrative of each of the four futures of Words in the Hawaiian Language, published were identified using a scanning technique cre- in 1836, stated, “Akua. The Deity, God, any ated by Graham Molitor.38 Thus, there is a fac- supernatural being, an object of religious hom- tual basis underlying every feature of each age, applied also to artificial objects, the nature future, that is, a research paper or other credi- or properties of which Hawaiians do not under- ble bit of evidence supporting each detail of stand, such as a watch, a compass, etc.” each of the four futures (see the appendix for That is the meaning of “Akua” here. Akua references). The specific examples given of is an “artificial object, the nature or properties each of the four generic futures were derived of which” we today “do not understand,” but, from a rigorous effort in horizon scanning. just as a watch or a compass makes sense to This concluding section explores several broad present-day Hawaiians, so also will Akua and interconnected implications that cut across make complete sense to all of us as it becomes the set of scenarios, as well as some unique to reality in the future. one or two of the futures. Sources for the Transform Future are listed First and most fundamentally, an implica- in the appendix. tion suggested by all four scenarios is that the future context and range of possibilities for Conclusion and Implications nanocellulose and forestry are much more expansive than typically assumed in forestry The four specific futures described in this planning and policy, especially when we look study—Grow, Collapse (New Beginnings), out many decades. The continued growth sce- Discipline, and Transform—illustrate the nario is considered by most people to be the range of possible futures for forestry and most likely. But as futurist Herman Kahn said, wood-based nanomaterials that could unfold in “The most likely future isn’t.”39 In other words, the coming decades, as well as possible roles even what is considered to be the most likely that wood-based nanotechnology could play in future is a low probability event given the helping to shape those future contexts. It complex nature of social-ecological systems should be reiterated that identification of the and the frequency of discontinuous change and four archetypal scenarios (by Dator) and the surprise. There is a long history of long-range details of our specific scenarios (by the forecasting in forestry.40 But these forecasts research team) were determined through inten- and assessments are limited to a narrow range sive empirical research. of business-as-usual, continuation of current The four futures themselves were derived trends futures; they project trends from the from the collection, analysis, and reanalysis of past and ignore the possibility of emerging actual images of the future that are exhibited in countertrends, nonlinear developments, dis- laws, policies, plans, pronouncements, futures continuous change, and other types of surprise. research, religious texts, stories, poems, mov- They are missing the possibility of major ies, games, and many other sources over many shocks and structural changes that are plausi- years and across many cultures. The four ble but unexpected. Scenarios and other fore- images of the future are considered to be the sight methods (e.g., horizon scanning, the basic, irreducible, fundamental, contrasting, futures wheel) are tools for uncovering and generic images of the future found within all planning for surprises. Three of the four images so-called “developed” communities in the of the future that we discuss are intended to world today. All of the myriad conflicting open up thinking about a much wider range of images of the future that exist in all communi- long-run possibilities than are those of contin- ties can be viewed as specific examples of one ued growth—even those that consider varieties or more of the four generic images.37 of possible growth, such as “high, medium, Guided by the profoundly differing logic of and low”—and are based upon actual state- each of the four generic types, actual examples ments about the futures found in society today.

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Second, and following from the first impli- controversial technologies, thereby provoking cation, the wide range of possible futures and strong social opposition. This kind of opposi- surprising developments suggests the need for tion could stop wood-based nanomaterials in strategies to promote or strengthen institu- their tracks. Lessons that nanotechnology tional and social-ecological resilience.41 In advocates can learn from biotechnology ecological definitions, resilience is the ability regarding social acceptability have been of a system to absorb or accommodate distur- explored in recent years.46 Key lessons include bances without experiencing fundamental the following: (1) concerns about new tech- changes.42 But the impacts of potentially dis- nologies often reflect wider public concerns ruptive technologies such as nanotechnology (e.g., terrorism), (2) greater public knowledge are so significant that they may cause signifi- and awareness about the technologies may not cant changes in forest ecosystems, the forest diminish concerns and may even move the pub- products industry, and beyond. Fundamental lic toward a more skeptical view, and (3) an changes to the system may be inevitable. open model of innovation with extensive public Therefore, the classic ecological definition of discussion throughout the process is required. In resilience may be less appropriate for forestry addition, it seems that unintended consequences in the twenty-first century than standard dic- of the technology need to be transparently tionary definitions of resilience that include explored. In the GMO case, for example, an notions of adaptation and adjustment, that is, open discussion of increased pesticide use with “the ability to adjust to or recover from GMO crops could have possibly avoided a fair change,” “the ability to adapt successfully in share of the backlash while opening space for a the face of change or threats,” or “the capacity shared public-private path forward. to absorb disturbances, self-organize, learn and Another possible unanticipated conse- adapt.” Key characteristics of resilient systems quence is the occurrence of significant human include diversity, ecological variability, modu- or environmental health impacts of wood- larity, acknowledging slow variables, tight based nanotechnology. Once again, serious feedbacks, social capital, innovation, overlap health or safety impacts could stop the devel- in governance, and ecosystem service.43 opment and diffusion of nanomaterials if they Indeed, rather than contemplating the ultimately prove to be nonviable from a public futures either in terms of “sustainability” or safety standpoint. This implies the need for “resilience,” it might be better to say that sys- intensive and balanced research on potential tems should strive for “evolvability”—suc- human health and ecotoxicological effects to cessful emergence from one form and set of investigate and prevent this potential develop- functions to another on the basis of responses ment. Another related unanticipated conse- to environmental pressures over time.44 Thus, quence could be deleterious health effects on “The Forest Service” of the future may not other living organisms (humans are not the look like or act like the Forest Service of the only species that could have their health present but still be understood to have evolved impacted by nanomaterials) or impacts to the into its future form and function on the basis of ecosystem itself. In addition, if twigs and its successful responses to environmental, sticks can be turned into high-end electronics, social, and technological challenges. the demand for forest-based materials could Third, potentially transformative technolo- exceed the ecosystem’s ability to produce gies such as nanotechnology typically produce those materials. an array of unintended and unanticipated con- Unintended consequences such as these sequences, both direct and higher order suggest the need for forest planners and policy impacts.45 For example, there is a strong poten- makers to proactively identify possible conse- tial that many members of the public and other quences of wood nanomaterials and other stakeholders may regard nanomaterials the major innovations produced by research and same way they now regard GMOs, genetic design strategies to encourage positive impacts engineering, nanoscale machines, and other and discourage negative impacts. The Futures

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Wheel is a foresight tool specifically designed “worst case scenario.” There is no “most to do this.47 Most analyses of the implications likely” or “least likely” future. Preferred of change do not go beyond the obvious direct futures represent our best shot and what we consequences. But the higher order conse- hope will be with a rational and rigorous plan quences are less obvious and may be the most to get there. But ultimately the point is, through significant. The smart group process, graphic exploring alternative futures, to evolve suc- structure, and nonlinear thinking of the Futures cessfully regardless of what “the future” turns Wheel make it a powerful tool for identifying out to be, rather than assuming that one can and evaluating possible implications of change. only thrive in one future alone. A fourth interconnected implication is that A final implication that follows from all the major and potentially disruptive and transforma- preceding implications is the importance of tive technologies such as nanotechnology may institutionalizing foresight capacity. Futures create or contribute to a special category of high research is a transdisciplinary field of inquiry impact unintended consequence, often referred that uses a variety of methods to explore alter- to as wild cards or black swans. The collapse and native possible, plausible, and preferable transform images of the futures could be consid- futures. Bell51 further characterizes futures ered as constructed by emphasizing various wild research as an “action science,” with an orien- cards—drastically different futures that contain tation to informing decision-making and action. multiple individual wild cards. Emerging wild One goal of futures research is to produce stra- cards are difficult to identify and interpret, but tegic foresight, defined as “the ability to create several strategies have been proposed. Markley48 and maintain a high-quality, coherent, and described a four-level typology and a related functional forward view and to use the insights method for monitoring emerging awareness of arising in organizationally useful ways; for wild cards and their credibility, and Mendonça example, to detect adverse conditions, guide et al.49 proposed a method based on the type of policy, shape strategy.”52 Institutionalizing wild card, the subject area affected (e.g., eco- foresight capacity into routine planning and nomic, environmental, technological), and the policy making is critical to have a lasting effect. nature and magnitude of potential impacts. A single foresight exercise like this one quickly Petersen50 maintains that there are always early loses its value no matter how skillfully done warnings of impending wild card events, but we and widely embraced. Institutionalizing fore- frequently miss them because we tend not to sight capacity in forestry and forest products think about such events and the precursors that would help identify continuing and new driving might signal their approach. forces and trends, novel emerging issues, and a This way of thinking about the future is range of plausible alternative futures. Most problematic, however. It stems from a time important, it would stimulate ongoing strategic when it seemed reasonable to think of a “nor- conversations about the futures.53 mal,” “most likely” future, and to see “wild There are three main strategies for institu- cards” as largely unanticipated and perhaps tionalizing foresight. An in-house strategy unlikely events that might perturb the normal would involve creating a futures unit that future. The alternative four futures approach would be responsible for regular horizon scan- suggests there is no “normal” future anymore ning and high-priority projects exploring pos- from which “wild cards” might produce rare sible, plausible, and preferable futures using a and unexpected deviations. Rather, there is range of foresight methods. An alternative ample evidence, which the four futures strategy is to have one person assigned specifi- uncover, to support the likelihood of each of cally to contract with futures research organi- the four futures coming to pass. The four zations and think tanks, purchasing scans and futures approach requires us to treat each of the futures surveys on a regular basis, and working four futures as potentially equal in possibility, closely with planners, managers, and policy and equal also in terms of desirability or unde- makers to incorporate the findings into deci- sirability. There is no “best case scenario” or sion-making and strategies. Outsourcing

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foresight activities is a common approach in Rachel Pritzker, Pamela Ronald, Joyashree Roy, corporations, but it is important to ensure that Mark Sagoff, Michael Schllenberger, Robert foresight developed by outside consultants is Stone, and Peter Teague. 2015. An Ecomodernist relevant and incorporated into strategic plan- Manifesto, April 2015. http://www.ecomodern ning and decision-making.54 A hybrid approach ism.org/ (accessed July 1, 2016). to institutionalizing foresight, involving both Bailey, Ronald. 2015. The End of Doom: an in-house futures unit and regular use of out- Environmental Renewal in the Twenty-First side experts, is often most effective. In-house Century. New York: Thomas Dunne Books. foresight champions know the culture and the ways of the organization or field, and outside Colvile, Robert. 2015. The Great Acceleration: experts bring new ideas and perspectives. How the World Is Getting Faster and Faster. One of the main implications of the four sce- Bloomsbury. narios is that nanotechnology may be far more Cowen, Tyler. 2014. Average Is Over: transformative than we may now imagine. With Powering America beyond the Age of the Great nanotechnology, and the other transforming Stagnation. New York: Dutton. sciences and technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnologies, new Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. materials, brain research, and space exploration 2015. Breakthrough Technologies for National and settlement, humanity presently may be like Security. www.darpa.mil (accessed July 1, 2016). a caterpillar building a cocoon around herself Diamandis, Peter, and Steven Kotler. 2012. with no notion of the butterfly that may emerge. Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Wood-based nanotechnology has the potential Think. New York: Free Press. to produce a paradigm shift in forestry and for- est products that would redefine forest Ip, Greg. 2015. “The World’s New Population resources. At the same time, the collapse and Time Bomb: Too Few People.” Wall Street discipline futures caution us to proceed care- Journal, November 23, 2015. http://www.wsj. fully and ethically. If our thinking is stuck in com/articles/how-demographics-rule-the-global- the old paradigm, we will not be successful in economy-1448203724 (accessed July 1, 2016). any new one. More broadly, each has the poten- Land, George. 1986. Grow or Die: The tial to accelerate the Anthropocene era of sig- Unifying Principle of Transformation. Random nificant anthropogenic change by making all House. wood cellulose a material that can be made into countless high-value products. Our hope is that Morton, Oliver. 2015. The Planet Remade: this study will stimulate further forward-look- How Geoengineering Could Change the World. ing debate and discussion about the futures of Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. wood nanomaterials and forestry so that we can Peterson, Rachelle, and Peter Wood. 2015. make the best possible decisions for the com- Sustainability: Higher Education’s New mon good of all our futures. Fundamentalism. Washington, DC: National Association of Scholars. Ridley, Matt. 2010. The Rational Optimist: Appendix How Prosperity Evolves. Harper. Selected References for Each of the Simon, Julian. 1998. The Ultimate Resource 2. Four Futures Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Sources for Grow Futures Sources for Collapse and New Beginnings Futures Asafu-Adjaye, John, Linus Blomqvist, Stuart Brand, Barry Brook, Ruth DeFries, Erle Ellis, Dartnell, Lewis. 2014. The Knowledge: How Christopher Forman, David Keith, Martin Lewis, to Rebuild Our World from Scratch. New York: Mark Lynas, Ted Nordhaus, Roger Pielke, Jr., Barnes & Noble.

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Impact on Materials Technology.” Chemical 34. Jim Dator, “Alternative Futures at the Manoa & Engineering News 92, no. 26 (2014): 9–12, School.” Journal of Futures Studies 14, no. 2 http://cen.acs.org/articles/92/i26/Nano-Forest. (2009): 1–18, http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/14-2/A01. html; Emil Venere, “Cellulose Nanocrystals 35. Dator, “Alternative Futures at the Manoa Possible ‘Green’ Wonder Material.” R&D School.” Magazine, December 16, 2013, http://www 36. Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near: When .rdmag.com/news/2013/12/cellulose- Humans Transcend Biology (New York: nanocrystals-possible-green-wonder-material; Penguin Books, 2005). Matt Safford, “These New Computer Chips Are 37. Dator, “Alternative Futures at the Manoa Made from Wood.” Smithsonian.com, June 3, School”; Neil MacDonald, “Futures and 2015, http://www.smithsonianmag.com/innova Culture,” Futures 44, no. 4 (May 2012): 277–91. tion/these-new-computer-chips-are-made- 38. Molitor, “How To Anticipate Public-Policy from-wood-180955471/#r5mqDFhK4Jwyf Changes.” See also Dator et al., Mutative mcx.99; Bernard Kippelen, Canek Fuentes- Media, chap. 5. Hernandez, Yinjua Zhou, Robert Moon, and 39. Herman Kahn, The Coming Boom: Economic, Jeffrey P. Youngblood, Recyclable Organic Political and Social (New York: Simon & Solar Cells on Substrates Comprising Schuster, 1982), quote at p. 82. Cellulose Nanocrystals (CNC), US Patent 40. Guldin and Bengston, “Strategic Foresight 9,203,030, filed March 21, 2014, and issued Activities in the United States of America,” December 1, 2015. February 26–27, 2015. 29. M. M. Pereira, N. R. B. Raposo, R. Brayner, 41. B. Walker and D. Salt, Resilience Thinking: E. M. Teixeira, V. Oliveira, C. C. R. Quintão, Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing L. S. A. Camargo, L. H. C. Mattoso, and H. M. World (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2006). Brandão, “Cytotoxicity and Expression of Genes 42. D. J. Davidson, “The Applicability of the Involved in the Cellular Stress Response and Concept of Resilience to Social Systems: Apoptosis in Mammalian Fibroblast Exposed to Some Sources of Optimism and Nagging Cotton Cellulose Nanofibers.” Nanotechnology Doubts,” Society & Natural Resources 23, no. 24, no. 7 (2013), Article 075103; M. M. Pereira, 12 (2010): 1135–49. L. Mouton, C. Yéprémian, A. Couté, J. Lo, J. 43. B. Walker and D. Salt, Resilience Thinking: M. Marconcini, L. O. Ladeira, N. R. Raposo, H. Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a M. Brandão, and R. Brayner, “Ecotoxicological Changing World (Washington, DC: Island Effects of Carbon Nanotubes and Cellulose Press, 2006). Nanofibers in Chlorella Vulgaris.” Journal of 44. The concept “evolvability” comes from Nanobiotechnology 12 (2014), Article 15. Jan Huston, A Passion to Evolve, Doctoral 30. R. de Lima, L. O. Feitosa, C. R. Maruyama, M. Dissertation (Honolulu: University of Hawaii, A. Barga, P. C. Yamawaki, I. J. Vieira, E. M. May, 2000). Teixeira, A. C. Corrêa, L. H. C. Mattoso, and L. 45. Dator et al., Mutative Media. F. Fraceto, “Evaluation of the Genotoxicity of 46. K. David and P. B. Thompson, eds., What Can Cellulose Nanofibers.” International Journal Nanotechnology Learn from Biotechnology? Nanomedicine 7 (2012): 3555–565. Social and Ethical Lessons for Nanoscience 31. N. Yanamala, M. T. Farcas, M. K. Hatfield, from the Debate over Agrifood Biotechnology E. R. Kisin, V. E. Kagan, C. L. Geraci, and and GMOs (Burlington: Academic Press, 2008). A. A. Shvedova, “In Vivo Evaluation of the 47. D. N. Bengston, “The Futures Wheel: A Pulmonary Toxicity of Cellulose Nanocrystals: Method for Exploring the Implications of A Renewable and Sustainable Nanomaterial Social-Ecological Change.” Society & Natural of the Future.” ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Resources 29, no. 3 (2016): 374–79, http:// Engineering 2 (2014): 1691–698. treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/50218. 32. James A. Dator, John A. Sweeney, and Aubrey 48. O. Markley, “A New Methodology for M. Yee, Mutative Media: Communication Anticipating STEEP Surprises,” Technological Technologies and Power Relations in the Past, Forecasting & Social Change 78, no. 6 (2011): Present, and Futures (New York: Springer, 2014). 1079–1097. 33. Graham T. T. Molitor, “How to Anticipate 49. S. Mendonça, M. P. Cunha, J. Kaivo-oja, Public-Policy Changes,” S.A.M. Advanced and F. Ruff, “Wild Cards, Weak Signals and Management Journal 42, no. 3 (1977): 4–13. Organizational Improvisation.” Futures 36, no.

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2 (2004): 201–18. Conservation Biology Graduate Program at the 50. J. L. Petersen, Out of the Blue: Wild Cards and University of Minnesota, USA. Other Big Future Surprises (Arlington, VA: Jim Dator is professor and director Emeritus, The Arlington Institute, 1997). Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, 51. W. Bell, Foundations of Futures Studies, Department of Political Science, University of Volume 1: History, Purposes, and Knowledge Hawaii; professor, International Space University, (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Publishers, Strasbourg, France; adjunct professor, Korean 1997). Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 52. R. A. Slaughter, “Futures Studies as an Daejon, Korea; and former president, World Futures Intellectual and Applied Discipline,” in Studies Federation. Advancing Futures: Futures Studies in Higher Education, ed. J. Dator (Westport, CT: Praeger, Michael J. Dockry is a research forester with the 2002), 91–107, quoted at p. 104. US Forest Service Northern Research Station, 53. P. Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Strategic Foresight Research Group, an adjunct Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World assistant professor at the University of Minnesota, (New York: Currency Doubleday, 1991). and an associate editor of the Journal of Forestry. 54. G. S. Day and P. J. H. Schoemaker, “Scanning He earned a BS in forest science and a PhD in for- the Periphery,” Harvard Business Review 83, estry from the University of Wisconsin Madison no. 11 (2005): 135–48. and an MS in forest resources from the Pennsylvania State University, USA. Aubrey Yee is a PhD candidate in Political Science/ Author Biographies Alternative Futures and research associate at the David N. Bengston is an environmental futurist and Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies at the social scientist with the US Forest Service, Northern University of Hawaii at Manoa. She also works with Research Station, Strategic Foresight Group in St. the Hawaii Leadership Forum to implement and Paul, Minnesota. He is also an adjunct professor in teach futures studies and systems thinking for social the Department of Forest Resources and the change.

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