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An Analysis of Fires in Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, and Vans

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An Analysis of Fires in Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, and Vans U.S. Department of Transportation National Highway Traffic Safety Administsration doths 808 208 December 1994 NHTSA Technical Report An Analysis of Fires in Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, and Vans This document is availalbe to the public from the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161 cktf S Technical Report Documentation Page 1 . Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. DOT HS 808 208 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date An Analysis of Fires in Passenger Cars, Light December 1994 6. Perfor-:-- ~ Trucks , and Vans 8. Performing Organization Report No. 7. Authors) Tessmer, Joseph 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Mathematical Analysis Division National Center for Statistics and Analysis 11. Contract or Grant No. 400 7th Street SW Washington, DC 20590 13. Type of Report and Period Covered 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address Research and Development NHTSA Technical Report National Hwy Traffic Safety Administration 16. 400 7th Street SW 14. Sponsoring Agency Code Washington, D.C. 20590 15. Supplementary Notes Abstruct This report contains an analysis of historical data on fire occurrence in fatal and less serious crashes as a function of crash, vehicle, and driver characteristics that influence the likelihood of postcollision vehicle fires. The report is organized into four sections. Data on the vehicles included in the study are for 1978 and later model years. The first two sections use 1979 thru 1992 data from the Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) . The first section contains raw 17. cross tabulations of the data. The18. second section constructs multivariate statistical models. Section three examines raw cross tabulations of data from the State of Michigan from 1982 to 1991. The Michigan police accident report (PAR) collects data on 19. fuel leaks which are used20. to estimate the relationship between fires and fuel leaks. Section four is based on the National Accident Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS CDS) for burn injuries from 1988 to 1993. Key Words Distribution Statement Document is available to the public Fire Occurrence, Fuel System, through the National Technical Integrity, Fuel Leaks Information Service. Springfield, VA 22161 Security Classif. (of this report) Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of P ages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 97 TRANSPORTATION' (8-72) Form DOT F 1700.7 Reproduction of completed page authorized MAY 1 J 1998 nassif branch library Table of Contents List of Exhibits -v- - Introduction - 1 - Definition of FARS Fire Occurrence and Most Harmful Event Fire - 1 Data - 2 - Analytic Note - 4 - Year of the Crash - 5 - Model Year of the Vehicle -11- Number of Vehicles Involved - 25 - Weight of Cars - 27 - Area of Damage - 29 - Object Struck - 34 - Rollover - 40 - Posted Speed Limit - 44 - Salt Effect - 50 - Fatality Estimates Due to Fire - 52 - Extrication - 54 - Statistical Models - 56 - Base Models for Fire/MHE Fire - 57 - Interpretation of the Odds Ratios - Base Models - 58 - Vehicle-Specific Models - 59 - Fuel Tank Location - 68 - Michigan Data - 69 - Point of Impact - 69 - i i i Michigan Vehicle Age - 84 Probability of a Fire given a Fuel Leak - 86 NASS Data - 87 NASS Vehicle Age - 87 NASS Number of Vehicles Involved - 89 NASS Damaged Area - 90 NASS Object Struck - 91 NASS Delta V - 92 NASS A.I.S. Severity - 93 NASS Entrapment - 94 NASS Fire Origin - 95 Conclusions and Recommendations - 96 List of Exhibits Exhibit 1 YEAR OF CRASH - 1978 MODEL YEAR AND LATER CARS -5- Exhibit 2 YEAR OF CRASH - CARS (CHART) -6- Exhibit 3 YEAR OF CRASH - 1978 MODEL YEAR AND LATER LIGHT TRUCKS-7- Exhibit 4 YEAR OF CRASH - TRUCKS (CHART) -8- Exhibit 5 YEAR OF CRASH - 1978 MODEL YEAR AND LATER VANS -9- Exhibit 6 YEAR OF CRASH - VANS (CHART) -10- Exhibit 7 MODEL YEAR - CARS -11- Exhibit 8 MODEL YEAR - CARS (CHART) -12- Exhibit 9 MODEL YEAR, AGE LIMITED TO FOUR YEARS - CARS -13- Exhibit 10 MODEL YEAR - LIGHT TRUCKS -14- Exhibit 11 MODEL YEAR - TRUCKS (CHART) -15- Exhibit 12 MODEL YEAR - VANS -16- Exhibit 13 MODEL YEAR - VANS (CHART) -17- Exhibit 14 VEHICLE AGE in YEARS - 1978 MODEL YEAR AND LATER CARS -18- Exhibit 15 VEHICLE AGE in YEARS - CARS (CHART) -19- Exhibit 16 CAR PERCENT FIRE by AGE in YEARS and MODEL YEAR GROUP -20- Exhibit 17 VEHICLE AGE in YEARS - 1978 MODEL YEAR AND LATER LIGHT TRUCKS -21- Exhibit 18 VEHICLE AGE in YEARS - TRUCKS (CHART) -22- Exhibit 19 VEHICLE AGE in YEARS - 1978 MODEL YEAR AND LATER VANS -23- Exhibit 20 VEHICLE AGE in YEARS - VANS (CHART) -24- Exhibit 21 SINGLE-VEHICLE vs. MULTIPLE-VEHICLE CRASHES - CARS -25- Exhibit 22 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR SINGLE-VEHICLE vs. MULTIPLE-VEHICLE CRASHES - CARS -25- v Exhibit 23 SINGLE-VEHICLE vs. MULTIPLE-VEHICLE CRASHES - LIGHT TRUCKS -26- Exhibit 24 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR SINGLE-VEHICLE vs. MULTIPLE-VEHICLE CRASHES - LIGHT TRUCKS -26- Exhibit 25 SINGLE-VEHICLE vs. MULTIPLE-VEHICLE CRASHES - VANS -27- Exhibit 26 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR SINGLE-VEHICLE vs. MULTIPLE-VEHICLE CRASHES - VANS -27- Exhibit 27 CAR WEIGHT CLASSES -28- Exhibit 28 WEIGHT CLASS - CARS -28- Exhibit 29 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR WEIGHT CLASS - CARS - 29- Exhibit 30 AREA OF DAMAGE - CARS -30- Exhibit 31 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR AREA OF DAMAGE - CARS -30- Exhibit 32 OCCURRENCE OF FIRE - CARS AREA OF DAMAGE PARTITIONED BY WEIGHT CLASS -31- Exhibit 33 PERCENT OF FIRE - CARS AREA OF DAMAGE PARTITIONED BY WEIGHT CLASS -31- Exhibit 34 OCCURRENCE OF MOST HARMFUL EVENT FIRE - CARS AREA OF DAMAGE PARTITIONED BY WEIGHT CLASS -32- Exhibit 35 PERCENT MOST HARMFUL EVENT FIRE - CARS AREA OF DAMAGE PARTITIONED BY WEIGHT CLASS -32- Exhibit 36 AREA OF DAMAGE - LIGHT TRUCKS -33- Exhibit 37 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR AREA OF DAMAGE - LIGHT TRUCKS -33- Exhibit 38 AREA OF DAMAGE - VANS -34- Exhibit 39 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR AREA OF DAMAGE VANS -34- Exhibit 40 OBJECT STRUCK - CARS -35- Exhibit 41 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR OBJECT STRUCK - CARS -35- Exhibit 42 OBJECT STRUCK - LIGHT TRUCKS -36- VI Exhibit 43 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR OBJECT STRUCK - LIGHT TRUCKS -36- Exhibit 44 OBJECT STRUCK - VANS -37- Exhibit 45 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR OBJECT STRUCK - VANS -37- Exhibit 46 OCCURRENCE OF FIRE - CARS OBJECT STRUCK Partitioned by AREA OF DAMAGE -38- Exhibit 47 OCCURRENCE OF MOST HARMFUL EVENT FIRE - CARS OBJECT STRUCK Partitioned by AREA OF DAMAGE -38- Exhibit 48 OCCURRENCE OF FIRE - LIGHT TRUCKS OBJECT STRUCK Partitioned by AREA OF DAMAGE -39- Exhibit 49 OCCURRENCE OF MOST HARMFUL EVENT FIRE - LIGHT TRUCKS OBJECT STRUCK Partitioned by AREA OF DAMAGE -39- ExhiOit 50 OCCURRENCE OF FIRE - VANS OBJECT STRUCK Partitioned by AREA OF DAMAGE -40- Exhibit 51 OCCURRENCE OF MOST HARMFUL EVENT FIRE - VANS OBJECT STRUCK Partitioned by AREA OF DAMAGE -40- Exhibit 52 ROLLOVER - CARS -41- Exhibit 53 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR ROLLOVER - CARS -41- Exhibit 54 ROLLOVERS PARTITIONED BY PRINCIPAL IMPACT POINT - CARS-42- Exhibit 55 ROLLOVER - LIGHT TRUCKS -42- Exhibit 56 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR ROLLOVER LIGHT TRUCKS -43- Exhibit 57 ROLLOVER - VANS -43- Exhibit 58 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR ROLLOVER - VANS -43- Exhibit 59 SPEED LIMIT - CARS -44- Exhibit 60 SPEED LIMIT - CARS (CHART) -45- Exhibit 61 SPEED LIMIT - LIGHT TRUCKS -46- Exhibit 62 SPEED LIMIT - TRUCKS (CHART) -47- Exhibit 63 SPEED LIMIT - VANS -48- vi i Exhibit 64 SPEED LIMIT - VANS (CHART) -49- Exhibit 65 SALT EFFECT - CARS -50- Exhibit 66 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR SALT EFFECT - CARS -51- Exhibit 67 SALT EFFECT - LIGHT TRUCKS -51- Exhibit 68 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR SALT EFFECT - LIGHT TRUCKS -51- Exhibit 69 SALT EFFECT - VANS -52- Exhibit 70 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR SALT EFFECT - VANS -52- Exhibit 71 FATALITY ESTIMATES DUE TO FIRE BY YEAR OF CRASH -53- Exhibit 72 PERCENT OF FATALITY ESTIMATES DUE TO FIRE BY YEAR OF CRASH -54- Exhibit 73 EXTRICATION -55- Exhibit 74 BASE MODEL FOR FIRE AND MHE FIRE -57- Exhibit 75 BASE MODEL COMPARED TO VEHICLE SPECIFIC MODELS - FIRE Odds Ratios -60- Exhibit 76 BASE MODEL FIRE ODDS RATIO WITH LOWER AND UPPER 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS -61- Exhibit 77 BASE MODEL COMPARED TO VEHICLE SPECIFIC MODELS - MHE FIRE Odds Ratios -64- Exhibit 78 BASE MODEL MHE FIRE ODDS RATIO WITH LOWER AND UPPER 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS -65- Exhibit 79 SPECIAL MODEL OF FUEL TANK LOCATION EFFECT FOR REAR IMPACT FIRES -68- Exhibit 80 MICHIGAN FREQUENCY POINT OF IMPACT INJURIES INCLUDING FATALITIES - CARS -79- Exhibit 81 MICHIGAN PERCENTAGE RATE POINT OF IMPACT INJURIES INCLUDING FATALITIES - CARS -70- Exhibit 82 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR PERCENTAGE RATE by POINT OF IMPACT INJURIES INCLUDING FATALITIES - CARS -70- vi i i Exhibit 83 MICHIGAN FREQUENCY POINT OF IMPACT PROPERTY DAMAGE ONLY - CARS -71- Exhibit 84 MICHIGAN PERCENTAGE RATE POINT OF IMPACT PROPERTY DAMAGE ONLY - CARS -71- Exhibit 85 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR PERCENTAGE RATE by POINT OF IMPACT PROPERTY DAMAGE ONLY - CARS -71- Exhibit 86 MICHIGAN FREQUENCY POINT OF IMPACT ALL REPORTED CRASHES - CARS -72- Exhibit 87 MICHIGAN PERCENTAGE RATE POINT OF IMPACT ALL REPORTED CRASHES - CARS -72- Exhibit 88 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR PERCENTAGE RATE by POINT OF IMPACT ALL REPORTED CRASHES - CARS -73- Exhibit 89 MICHIGAN FREQUENCY POINT OF IMPACT INJURIES INCLUDING FATALITIES - LIGHT TRUCKS -73- Exhibit 90 MICHIGAN PERCENTAGE RATE POINT OF IMPACT INJURIES INCLUDING FATALITIES - LIGHT TRUCKS -74- Exhibit 91 95 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR PERCENTAGE RATE
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