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The Clean Energy Moonshot — a California Pilot Project

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The Clean Energy Moonshot — a California Pilot Project Note: this paper is posted online at WorldBusiness.org/Clean-Energy-Moonshot along with an accompanying video. The Clean Energy Moonshot — A California Pilot Project “You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.” ― R. Buckminster Fuller Introduction: Global Warming is a Call to Action to Achieve 100 Percent Renewable Energy Business and policymakers around the globe are waking up to the scope of the global warming crisis. Global warming has become an undeniable force: unprecedented storms, droughts, floods, fires, desertification, rising sea level, ocean acidification, and rainforest depletion threaten the life support systems of our planet and the social system of our species. Science tells us that we are on track for an unprecedented catastrophe for human civilization. Without swift action, our pollution of the atmosphere with greenhouse gasses expelled from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels have already begun to trigger irreversible feedback loops, which will exponentially accelerate the heating of our planet. This scenario is unacceptable for business and for society as a whole; global warming is a mortal threat to the existence of human civilization as we know it.1 With this great crisis comes great opportunity: the implications of this paradigm shift for business are many including massive new growth opportunities; creation of entire regional economies and new economic sectors; a renewed focus on high tech industrial products that can be developed, manufactured, installed, and maintained in the United States; the development of energy control technologies and other exportable manufacture goods that can lead to an export boom; and an opportunity for businesses to lead in the effort to halt global warming. The business community currently has the technology and capital to support the transition to the next energy paradigm—an energy system that does not add greenhouse gas to the atmosphere; a system that harnesses the almost limitless 1 For a consensus view of the risks associated with climate change, see the 2014 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ Important note: because of the consensus process, the IPCC is generally overly conservative in their reporting, meaning the actual timeline for action is shorter and the impacts will be even greater than predicted by their dire report. energy provided by renewable resources. 100 percent carbon-free, nuclear-free energy is not only possible; it is vital to the future of our civilization. However, if we are to meet this challenge, we must sprint to this new energy paradigm. We see the global implementation of 100 percent renewable energy as the top priority for businesses that are truly “marketplace smart” and conscious, as renewable energy represents the evolution of business away from a system of exploitation and towards an organizing principle that consciously takes care of the planet and the people business serves. Throughout the conversion to renewable energy, achieving steps along the way will unlock untold wealth to further fuel the development of the post-fossil fuel world. The Clean Energy Moonshot project is an ongoing design and implementation effort of the World Business Academy, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit think tank, which, for 27 years, has worked to change the way business operates by helping to create the conscious business movement and associated business practices that help leaders, workers, and businesses thrive. This project is the result of decades of the Academy’s research in renewable energy, micro- and macroeconomics, finance, politics, and whole systems design. It is the Academy’s purpose to transform the planetary energy system. This is the pathway. The Moonshot to Renewable Energy: It Starts in California To catalyze this shift, we propose a challenge along the lines of President John F. Kennedy’s 1961 “moonshot” challenge to land a man on the moon and return him safely by the end of the decade. We offer a similarly ambitious and game- changing challenge: 100% carbon-free, nuclear-free energy in California within 10 years. We Know a 100% Carbon-Free, Nuclear-Free Energy System Is Possible According to a 2012 study by University of Delaware researchers Willett Kempton and Cory Budischak,2 renewable energy production and energy storage using hydrogen gas could fully power a large electricity grid by 2030 at costs comparable to the nonrenewable systems in use today. Utilizing a computer model for wind, solar and storage calculated to meet demand for one-tenth of the U.S. grid, their results debunk the conventional wisdom that renewable energy is too unreliable and expensive. 2 Kempton and Budischak, “Cost-minimized combinations of wind power, solar power and electrochemical storage, powering the grid up to 99.9% of the time,” http://goo.gl/uK8NuE 2 World Business Academy © 2015 Last Saved: 1/12/15 2:28 PM “Using hydrogen for storage, we can run an electric system that today would meet a need of 72 gigawatts, 99.9% of the time, using solar, offshore wind, and inland wind,” according to Budischak. The Kempton-Budischak study does not factor in the positive effects of adding significant geothermal and Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion resources to the energy production mix, which could provide additional base load power and accelerate the study’s timeline. Also supporting possibility of a 100 percent renewable energy system is the 2014 study from Stanford University Professor Mark Z. Jacobson and colleagues,3 which proposes that all-purpose California end-use power demand, including energy for ground transportation, can be met with 25 percent onshore wind, 10 percent offshore wind, 15 percent concentrated solar power, 15 percent solar PV power plants, 10 percent residential rooftop PV, 15 percent commercial/government rooftop PV, 5 percent geothermal, 0.5 percent wave, 0.5 percent tidal, and 4 percent hydro. While our plan differs from the Kempton-Budischak, and Jacobson plans, we take this groundbreaking research as proof that the renewable future is not only possible, but the technology to achieve it is here today. The academic consensus is that the zero carbon energy future is here, now. And we can afford to implement it. The Transition is Happening Now and is at a Tipping Point When compared with current goals and benchmarks, achieving 100 percent renewable energy for the entire State of California in 10 years is an ambitious goal. Some might even call it unrealistic. However, former Vice President Al Gore, in a recent article titled “The Turning Point: New Hope for the Climate,” reminds us that reality has far outstripped initial projections when it comes to the degree and scope of developing renewable infrastructure. He also points out that we are currently crossing the economic tipping point for solar and wind energy in many regions across the planet, including California: We are witnessing the beginning of a massive shift to a new energy- distribution model – from the "central station" utility-grid model that goes back to the 1880s to a "widely distributed" model with rooftop solar cells, on-site and grid battery storage, and microgrids. […] At the turn of the 21st century, some scoffed at projections that the world would be installing one gigawatt of new solar electricity per year by 2010. That goal was exceeded 17 times over; last year it was 3 Mark Z. Jacobson, “A roadmap for repowering California for all purposes with wind, water, and sunlight,” http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CaliforniaWWS.pdf 3 World Business Academy © 2015 Last Saved: 1/12/15 2:28 PM exceeded 39 times over; and this year the world is on pace to exceed that benchmark as much as 55 times over. In May, China announced that by 2017, it would have the capacity to generate 70 gigawatts of photovoltaic electricity. The state with by far the biggest amount of wind energy is Texas, not historically known for its progressive energy policies. The cost of wind energy is also plummeting, having dropped 43 percent in the United States since 2009 – making it now cheaper than coal for new generating capacity. Though the downward cost curve is not quite as steep as that for solar, the projections in 2000 for annual worldwide wind deployments by the end of that decade were exceeded seven times over, and are now more than 10 times that figure. In the United States alone, nearly one-third of all new electricity-generating capacity in the past five years has come from wind, and installed wind capacity in the U.S. has increased more than fivefold since 2006.4 The trends Gore points to are critical to the Clean Energy Moonshot. It already makes economic sense for most Californians to install rooftop solar systems. With some significant but very possible regulatory changes and strategic investments in local energy systems, this economic incentive can be accelerated and harnessed to achieve a statewide 100 percent renewable energy system. California Is the Launchpad California has been the birthplace of revolutions throughout history. The major cultural and technological innovations of the modern era have taken place in the Golden State—from the Summer of Love to the birth of the microprocessor, California has proven to be the most fertile place on earth for new thinking and new industries. The next leap forward is 100 percent local energy systems and California is poised to again lead the world into the next paradigm.
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