1.1. Baseline Profile — Lower and Agro-Pastoral: Maize and Cattle

FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS UNIT

Time Line Map of Food Livelihood Zone & Population Figures Event Production 1991 Poor to medium year More Information Available: USC attacked Juba Gu rains were Lack of space restricts this profile Valley and captured average but Deyr to just some of the details on this . IDP’s to rains failed. baseline. FSAU has further . Looting. information available on request; contact [email protected] . 1992 Bad year SPM recaptured Crop failure, cattle BUAALE Kismayo. Relief died from drought. # food. SPM conflict with Col. Jess. 1993 Normal-good year Cholera outbreak. Good rainfall and SPM-SNA and USA- crop production SNA recaptured Region Reg. Reg. LZ LZ as % of Kismayo. UNOSOM Pop total Reg. Pop sponsored M. Juba 203000 22200 11% reconciliation L. Juba 339140 63919 19% 1994 Good year KISMAYO # Total 542140 86119 Repatriation Good crop and Source: POPULATION, WHO, 2001 movement and peace livestock production conference in Dobley and Kismayo 1995 Normal year Repatriation Average crop and movement by livestock production. UNHCR succeeds. 1996 Bad year Mass livestock Average crop slaughter due to production but very disease and drought. poor livestock IDP’s move to Kenya condition. 1997 Mixed year Description of LZ El Nino Deyr: camel Above normal Gu • This agro-pastoral LZ covers Badhaadhe, , Hagar, and Sakow districts in Lower and Middle Juba. and shoat death rate production. El Nino high. Poor crop and Deyr. • The LZ is mainly dependent on cattle, shoats and maize for their livelihood. livestock production • The agro-pastoralists rely on rain-fed dheshek cultivation, the latter being water holding depressions, where 1998 Mixed year recessional cropping is commonplace. The main crop grown is maize. Sorghum is grown mainly in , the Serious clan fighting Bad Gu-rats and maize-sorghum border area. Cowpeas are grown, largely for consumption, as well as sesame, for sale. in Sakow. birds’ infestation. • Livestock products include milk, ghee and live animal sales. Anthrax and tick • During the cultivation period (Gu and Deyr rains), animals are moved away from the farming area and only a few born diseases. milking animals are left behind. Better/normal Deyr 1999 Normal year • Livestock, especially cattle, are traded in Kenya, with good prices during the Gu and Deyr season as well as the Capture (June) of Gu normal rains and beginning of the Jilaal. Livestock prices and demand decrease during the Hagay season. Kismayo by Juba production, Deyr • Poor and middle wealth groups do not own camels, while the better-off wealth group has few camels. Valley Alliance below normal • There has been little international or agency presence since 1994, due to sporadic clashes and a lack of effective 2000 Normal year administrative structures. Unusual live-stock Gu – poor production • The area has higher and more reliable rainfall than other parts of , with coastal areas benefiting movement from for crops and Kenya. livestock. from Hagay showers. This region is also relatively rich in natural resources, having a coastline (fishing), good agricultural potential (river and dhesheks), thick forests (wood and charcoal) and livestock (especially cattle). • The bulk of the agro-pastoralists are predominantly of the Absaame group, with east of the river. • In the dry season livestock are moved towards dheshek and riverine areas, with core Hh's remaining at home.

Wealth Breakdown Baseline Year Definition Wealth is measured by land holding and herd size. In a normal year rainfall ranges from 500-600 mm. Normal yields: Very Poor Poor Middle Poor Maize 0.7-0.8 tons/ha 2-4% 25-30% 50-60% 15-20% Sorghum 0.4-0.5 tons/ha Cowpea 0.4-0.5 tons /ha Sesame 0.3-0.4 tons/ha

In a normal year, terms of trade are: Wealth Group Characteristic: -At harvest: 1l milk = 2.5 kg cereal (cattle or Poor Middle Better off camel) HH size 6-7 HH size 7-8 HH size 7-8 1 local quality goat = 1 50 kg sack Land holding: 0.75-1 Ha. (3-7 darab) Land holding: 3-4 ha. of land Land holding: 7-10 ha. of land cereal 0-6 cattle 10-20 cattle 40-50 cattle -After harvest (Hagay), livestock will 1-6 shoats 10-15 shoats 20-30 shoats graze in the fields (baldaaq); in Gu 5-10 camels and Deyr, livestock will move away Annual income: $ 636 (Sshs from the household and fields. .5,094,000) In Jilaal, livestock will move to local water points.

POOR Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern

12 0 % 12 0 %

10 0 % Non-staple 10 0 % purchase Cereal crops 80% Staple 14% 54% 80% purchase 60% 20% 60% 40% 40% Wild food 20% 1% 20% 0% Gifts BA SELINE INCOM E M A XIM ISING FOOD A CCESS 4% Milk Non-cereal 0% 6% crops BASELINE ACCESS M AXIM UM ACCESS Staple purchase No n-staple purchase 1% cereal crop sales no n-cereal cro p sales Milk sales Ho usehold items Input Surplus inco me social services livestock sales Employment Self-emplo yment ¾ Poor households consume their own- ¾ Sale of livestock products, especially milk, makes ¾ Half of the expenditure is on food items (65-70%) produced cereals and cowpeas, which make up one-half of poor Hh’s income. indicating that the poor do not produce sufficient food up almost two-thirds of the food sources. ¾ Employment and sale of livestock products for consumption. ¾ Livestock products contribute little (5-10%) contribute each about one-quarter to income for ¾ Household items include salt, kerosene, clothes, etc. the ¾ Purchase of sugar, oil, rice and some meat, this wealth group. Employment income is mainly minimum requirement of which comprises around 20% makes up about a quarter of food sources. from farm labour. of total baseline expenditure. ¾ Wild foods include leaves like such as garas, ¾ In hard times, cereal crops will be consumed ¾ Inputs are animal and human medicines, expenditure on mareer, shalooley and wild honey. while more milk will be sold. which would be cut under duress, as would social services (Koranic school). ¾ Under stress, much expenditure on non-staple food will be also be reduced, leaving approximately 80% of baseline expenditure available for staple purchase. MIDDLE Sources of Food Sources of Income Expenditure Pattern Annual income = $ 636 Livestock Milk/meat Own production Remittance sales Other needs Wild foods 5-10% 60-65% 0-5% 5-10% 20-25% 15-25%

Purchase Food 25-30% 45-50%

Non-food Crop sales Livestock 35-40% products essentials 30-35% 30-35% ¾ The middle wealth group consume mostly their ¾ Crop products (mainly cowpea & sesame) and ¾ About half of the expenditure is on food items – own-produced cereals and cowpeas, which make up livestock products (milk & ghee) are the main sugar, oil, meat and rice (45-50%). two thirds of the food sources. income sources, contributing 35-40%, and 30-35% ¾ Non-food essentials-clothing, agric expense, ¾ Livestock products contribute little (5-10%) respectively. animal & human medicines, make up 20-25% ¾ Purchase of sugar, oil, rice and some meat, makes ¾ Live animal sales (especially cattle) are not very ¾ The ‘other needs’ category purchased by this up about a quarter of food sources. common and are resorted to mostly in the dry WG include tea leaves, detergents, salt, Koran ¾ Common wild foods include garas, mareer, seasons. Although they are high-value, they school and kerosene shalooley and wild honey. contribute only 20-25% to income ¾ Middle households receive some remittance.

SEASONAL CALENDAR Livestock around water points Increase in agricultural labour opportunities - Gathering and sale of firewood, APRIL planting and weeding- maize, sorghum, cowpeas fodder and water Increase in commodity prices as roads RISK FACTORS Wild ‘garas’ available cut-off by rains • Low cattle mobility & Decrease in crop prices Increase in milk and ghee high water demand production. • Livestock diseases Increase in milk/ghee JILAAL GU • Cattle trade with Kenya Collection/sale of wild foods production Long dry Heavy & • Few dry season water pts season in most Peak honey production Increase in livestock and in grazing areas plateau important meat prices Crop harvest rainy season Peak honey production JANUARY JULY Increase in livestock DEYR HAGAY Crop harvest COPING STRATEGIES prices Light rains Main dry season Drop in crop prices Increase in honey, wild – showers in leaves and wild seeds coastal areas Decrease in milk and ghee - Increased livestock sales availability production - Collection of wild foods (especially water Increase in self-employment Increased collection of construction lilies) in riverine and dheshek areas materials - More employment and self-employment Bird scaring for sorghum Crop prices start to rise sharply seeking (bush products) - Community support – easier if localise Increase in milk/ghee production Livestock OCTOBER vulnerability in nearby Land preparation, planting & weeding High cereal & sugar purchase - Increased remittance seeking (within Somalia) fields

Prepared by the Food Security Assessment Unit (FSAU), with assistance from Save the Children (SC-UK) for Somalia. While all efforts have been made to utilize the most accurate data and information available, neither FSAU nor any of its supporters or partners endorse any figure or political boundary as definitive. Contact FSAU, PO Box 1230, Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya. Tel: (254-2) 3741299 / 3748297 / 3745734/ 3752062 / 3752063