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CLIMATE 2020 Facing the Future

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CLIMATE 2020 Facing the Future CLIMATE 2020 Facing the future CONTRIBUTORS INCLUDE Helen Clark | Laurent Fabius | Kumi Naidoo Mary Robinson | Maria van der Hoeven Christiana Figueres | Margareta Wahlström Anote Tong | Achim Steiner | Myles Allen Miguel Arias Cañete | Amina J. Mohammed Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka | Renate Christ Intelligence. From the source. FREE Yearbook with subscription Since 1962, keeping you ahead of the policy challenges of our time. Subscribe at www.oecdobserver.org/subscribe.html or email us at [email protected] www.oecdobserver.org CONTENTS 3 Contents FOREWORDS 23 Measurements: what and why? What do scientific measurements reveal about the 8 Paris matters causes of climate change, and how reliably can they By Mary Robinson, UN Secretary-General’s Special help us predict the planet’s climate in the future? Envoy on Climate Change and former President of Ireland By Judith Lean 12 The Paris Climate Alliance 27 Our carbon footprint By Laurent Fabius, Minister of Foreign Affairs and How have human-made carbon emissions altered the International Development, France; and President chemical balance of the atmosphere and oceans? Are we of the 21st session of the Conference of Parties to reaching a planetary tipping point? By Pieter P. Tans the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 30 A new narrative 14 Beyond COP21: Attention-grabbing messages of impending catastrophe from global agreements to local action dominate media coverage of climate change. But do these By Helen Clark, Administrator, UN Development narratives truly engage audiences? By James Painter Programme and former Prime Minister of New Zealand 32 Getting the message right 16 What is stopping us? How can climate communicators drive the behavioural By Kumi Naidoo, Executive Director, changes that are needed if the planet is to avoid Greenpeace International climate-related catastrophe? By Chris Rose INTRODUCTION CROSS-CUTTING THEMES 18 Climate 2020 36 The right to development By Sir Jeremy Greenstock, Chairman, UNA-UK Countries’ right to develop can provide the moral compass and technical framework needed to achieve POLICY & SCIENCE a new economic model. By Marcos A. Orellana 40 Secure and sustainable 20 Policy directed by science Securing future energy supplies to meet the demands of An IPCC report can expect to grab the world’s headlines, growing economies will require bold new thinking from and with good reason. By Renate Christ policymakers. By Maria van der Hoeven CLIMATE 2020 4 CONTENTS 43 Protecting the most vulnerable 62 Africa’s climate challenge Vulnerable communities are the most exposed to the In the world’s poorest inhabited continent, climate effects of climate change. How can they be empowered change poses a potentially devastating threat. to overcome the challenges posed? By Jagan Chapagain By Balgis Osman-Elasha 46 Empowering women 66 Securing Africa’s drinking water Climate change impacts women more than men. Water scarcity is a daily fact of life for more than a third The new climate agreement must redress the balance. of Africans. Africa needs an urgent integrated solution. By Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka By Karin Krchnak 49 A shared vision 68 Managing risks, preventing disasters The Sustainable Development Goals and the new Reducing the risk of climate-related and other disasters agreement on climate action share a universal aspiration. and better equipping communities to deal with them By Amina J. Mohammed is key. By Margareta Wahlström 54 The power of education 72 The ocean is the climate Achieving a new global mindset on climate change and The oceans have played a major role in mopping up sustainability starts with education. By Mahesh Pradhan greenhouse gas emissions. What effect is this having on and Mariam Osman them and the ecosystems they support? By Luis Valdés, Thorkild Aarup and Vladimir Ryabinin IMPACT 76 Nation under threat The Republic of Kiribati faces the very real prospect of 56 The domino effect disappearing under rising sea levels by the end of the In our increasingly globalised world, no nation is exempt century. By Anote Tong from the impacts of climate change. By Achim Steiner 77 Managing climate-driven migration 59 Asia: climate change battleground The effect of climate change on migration is complex. What can Asia and the Pacific do to protect its people – The international community must embed action on and the world – from the effects of climate change? migration into climate policy. By William Lacy Swing By Preety Bhandari 82 Climate change and conflict What can the international community do 40 to prevent climate-related conflict taking root? By Abiodun Williams 84 Ensuring food security What can be done to mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security, hunger and malnutrition? By Richard Choularton 86 The health burden of global warming What are the potential problems for health that climate change brings? What can be done to prepare and protect those at greatest risk? By Mark Grabowsky REMEDIES 88 Countdown to zero? Zero net global greenhouse gas emissions must become a reality before the end of the century. By Nebojsa Nakicenovic CLIMATE 2020 CONTENTS 5 108 Eliminating food waste To address the climate change challenge, we must prevent and reduce waste, from field to fork. By Liz Goodwin 112 Who should pay? The case for a carbon tax To move to sustainable, clean energy without stifling economic growth, governments will need a carbon tax policy. By Camilla Toulmin 115 Learning a new trade More governments see emissions trading as a powerful tool to help meet climate targets without choking economic growth. By Dirk Forrister 118 The scientific case for a cumulative carbon budget Climate change mitigation efforts must recognise the importance of cumulative CO2 emissions as the dominant driver of long-term climate change. By Myles Allen 121 A global emissions budget Setting finite carbon budgets has to date failed to gain traction on an international scale. By Owen Barder, Alice Lépissier and Alex Evans 124 Carbon capture and storage 68 Limiting global temperature rises will likely involve a mix of strategies and technologies. What part can carbon capture and storage play? By Brad Page 94 The new power generation The reality of climate change demands that we MAKING IT HAPPEN generate our future energy in a clean, sustainable way. By Robin Bedilion 126 Taming the dragon 97 Forests: a natural solution to climate change Can China, the world’s biggest carbon emitter, keep From carbon source to carbon sink: how protecting, growing without tipping the climate over the edge? managing and restoring the world’s forests can help the By Isabel Hilton climate and communities. By Zhang Xinsheng 129 A model for the wider world? 100 The road to sustainable transport Early action on climate change has helped the EU to The transport sector stands out in its lack of progress in achieve substantial cuts in emissions while growing its reducing emissions. Radical new approaches are required economy. By Miguel Arias Cañete to achieve the necessary reduction. By David Banister 132 Leading the way? 104 The challenge of urbanisation Is the US ready to spearhead action on the bold changes How can the development of cities become instrumental necessary to avoid a potentially catastrophic rise in global in achieving a zero-carbon economy? By Peter Madden temperatures? By Sam Adams 106 Green retrofits make economic, social and 135 Financing the transition to a better, environmental sense cleaner economy Buildings and the building sector are one of the primary What mechanisms can be deployed to ensure that both contributors to GHG emissions, but the solution private and public investment is directed towards green shouldn’t just focus on new builds. By Bruce Kerswill growth? By Helen Mountford CLIMATE 2020 6 CONTENTS 138 Unburnable carbon and the carbon bubble When and how might a correction take place and what impact might it have on the global economic system? 160 By Simon Zadek 141 Connecting climate and development finance Agreeing how to finance climate-resilient communities and infrastructure will be one of the year’s key decisions. By Rachel Kyte 144 Ethiopian initiative Ethiopia has committed to building a climate-resilient green economy. By Okey Daniel Ogbonnaya 148 The business case for tackling climate change Often seen as the villain of the piece, business now has a vital role to play in helping to deal with climate change. By James Smith 152 Environmental policy performance bonds Linking public debt to CO2 emissions could give governments a strong incentive to deliver on climate change action. By Abdeldjellil Bouzidi and Michael Mainelli PARIS 154 The long road to Paris 160 Stars aligning for a successful new climate Can COP21 succeed where predecessors have failed? agreement in Paris By Simon Buckle and Sara Moarif The December conference will not solve climate change overnight, but it will put all nations on track towards a 158 A successful outcome in Paris sustainable future. By Christiana Figueres How should we define ‘success’ at the UN climate meeting in December? By Natalie Samarasinghe 163 About us SPONSORED FEATURES 39 Water at the core of sustainable development 92 The pivotal role of carbon capture, utilisation ANEAS and storage Jupiter Oxygen Corporation 52 Reducing climate change impact through inclusive partnership 111 Food security: the biggest taboo Korea International Cooperation Agency Compassion in World Farming 71 Communities and land use are key in climate 146 Value rises as carbon falls challenges Triodos Investment Management The James Hutton Institute 151 The Paris Puzzle 75 Marine protection to mitigate climate impacts IPIECA RAMPAO CLIMATE 2020 Invest ahead for People and Planet UN Photo/Logan Abassi UN Photo/Logan Invest today for the future we want tomorrow. From 13 to 16 July, the international community will gather at the Third International Conference on Financing for Development in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to lay the groundwork for new ways to mobilize resources for a sustainable future.
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