CLIMATE 2020 Facing the Future

CLIMATE 2020 Facing the future

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Contents

FOREWORDS 23 Measurements: what and why? What do scientiﬁc measurements reveal about the 8 Paris matters causes of climate change, and how reliably can they By Mary Robinson, UN Secretary-General’s Special help us predict the planet’s climate in the future? Envoy on Climate Change and former President of Ireland By Judith Lean

12 The Paris Climate Alliance 27 Our carbon footprint By Laurent Fabius, Minister of Foreign Affairs and How have human-made carbon emissions altered the International Development, France; and President chemical balance of the atmosphere and oceans? Are we of the 21st session of the Conference of Parties to reaching a planetary tipping point? By Pieter P. Tans the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 30 A new narrative 14 Beyond COP21: Attention-grabbing messages of impending catastrophe from global agreements to local action dominate media coverage of climate change. But do these By Helen Clark, Administrator, UN Development narratives truly engage audiences? By James Painter Programme and former Prime Minister of New Zealand 32 Getting the message right 16 What is stopping us? How can climate communicators drive the behavioural By Kumi Naidoo, Executive Director, changes that are needed if the planet is to avoid Greenpeace International climate-related catastrophe? By Chris Rose

INTRODUCTION CROSS-CUTTING THEMES

18 Climate 2020 36 The right to development By Sir Jeremy Greenstock, Chairman, UNA-UK Countries’ right to develop can provide the moral compass and technical framework needed to achieve POLICY & SCIENCE a new economic model. By Marcos A. Orellana 40 Secure and sustainable 20 Policy directed by science Securing future energy supplies to meet the demands of An IPCC report can expect to grab the world’s headlines, growing economies will require bold new thinking from and with good reason. By Renate Christ policymakers. By Maria van der Hoeven

CLIMATE 2020 4 CONTENTS

43 Protecting the most vulnerable 62 Africa’s climate challenge Vulnerable communities are the most exposed to the In the world’s poorest inhabited continent, climate effects of climate change. How can they be empowered change poses a potentially devastating threat. to overcome the challenges posed? By Jagan Chapagain By Balgis Osman-Elasha

46 Empowering women 66 Securing Africa’s drinking water Climate change impacts women more than men. Water scarcity is a daily fact of life for more than a third The new climate agreement must redress the balance. of Africans. Africa needs an urgent integrated solution. By Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka By Karin Krchnak

49 A shared vision 68 Managing risks, preventing disasters The Sustainable Development Goals and the new Reducing the risk of climate-related and other disasters agreement on climate action share a universal aspiration. and better equipping communities to deal with them By Amina J. Mohammed is key. By Margareta Wahlström

54 The power of education 72 The ocean is the climate Achieving a new global mindset on climate change and The oceans have played a major role in mopping up sustainability starts with education. By Mahesh Pradhan greenhouse gas emissions. What effect is this having on and Mariam Osman them and the ecosystems they support? By Luis Valdés, Thorkild Aarup and Vladimir Ryabinin

IMPACT 76 Nation under threat The Republic of Kiribati faces the very real prospect of 56 The domino effect disappearing under rising sea levels by the end of the In our increasingly globalised world, no nation is exempt century. By Anote Tong from the impacts of climate change. By Achim Steiner 77 Managing climate-driven migration 59 Asia: climate change battleground The effect of climate change on migration is complex. What can Asia and the Pacific do to protect its people – The international community must embed action on and the world – from the effects of climate change? migration into climate policy. By William Lacy Swing By Preety Bhandari 82 Climate change and conflict What can the international community do 40 to prevent climate-related conflict taking root? By Abiodun Williams

84 Ensuring food security What can be done to mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security, hunger and malnutrition? By Richard Choularton

86 The health burden of global warming What are the potential problems for health that climate change brings? What can be done to prepare and protect those at greatest risk? By Mark Grabowsky

REMEDIES

88 Countdown to zero? Zero net global greenhouse gas emissions must become a reality before the end of the century. By Nebojsa Nakicenovic

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108 Eliminating food waste To address the climate change challenge, we must prevent and reduce waste, from ﬁeld to fork. By Liz Goodwin

112 Who should pay? The case for a carbon tax To move to sustainable, clean energy without stiﬂing economic growth, governments will need a carbon tax policy. By Camilla Toulmin

115 Learning a new trade More governments see emissions trading as a powerful tool to help meet climate targets without choking economic growth. By Dirk Forrister

118 The scientiﬁc case for a cumulative carbon budget Climate change mitigation efforts must recognise the importance of cumulative CO2 emissions as the dominant driver of long-term climate change. By Myles Allen

121 A global emissions budget Setting ﬁnite carbon budgets has to date failed to gain traction on an international scale. By Owen Barder, Alice Lépissier and Alex Evans

124 Carbon capture and storage 68 Limiting global temperature rises will likely involve a mix of strategies and technologies. What part can carbon capture and storage play? By Brad Page 94 The new power generation The reality of climate change demands that we MAKING IT HAPPEN generate our future energy in a clean, sustainable way. By Robin Bedilion 126 Taming the dragon 97 Forests: a natural solution to climate change Can China, the world’s biggest carbon emitter, keep From carbon source to carbon sink: how protecting, growing without tipping the climate over the edge? managing and restoring the world’s forests can help the By Isabel Hilton climate and communities. By Zhang Xinsheng 129 A model for the wider world? 100 The road to sustainable transport Early action on climate change has helped the EU to The transport sector stands out in its lack of progress in achieve substantial cuts in emissions while growing its reducing emissions. Radical new approaches are required economy. By Miguel Arias Cañete to achieve the necessary reduction. By David Banister 132 Leading the way? 104 The challenge of urbanisation Is the US ready to spearhead action on the bold changes How can the development of cities become instrumental necessary to avoid a potentially catastrophic rise in global in achieving a zero-carbon economy? By Peter Madden temperatures? By Sam Adams

106 Green retroﬁts make economic, social and 135 Financing the transition to a better, environmental sense cleaner economy Buildings and the building sector are one of the primary What mechanisms can be deployed to ensure that both contributors to GHG emissions, but the solution private and public investment is directed towards green shouldn’t just focus on new builds. By Bruce Kerswill growth? By Helen Mountford

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138 Unburnable carbon and the carbon bubble When and how might a correction take place and what impact might it have on the global economic system? 160 By Simon Zadek

141 Connecting climate and development ﬁnance Agreeing how to ﬁnance climate-resilient communities and infrastructure will be one of the year’s key decisions. By Rachel Kyte

144 Ethiopian initiative Ethiopia has committed to building a climate-resilient green economy. By Okey Daniel Ogbonnaya

148 The business case for tackling climate change Often seen as the villain of the piece, business now has a vital role to play in helping to deal with climate change. By James Smith

152 Environmental policy performance bonds

Linking public debt to CO2 emissions could give governments a strong incentive to deliver on climate change action. By Abdeldjellil Bouzidi and Michael Mainelli

PARIS

154 The long road to Paris 160 Stars aligning for a successful new climate Can COP21 succeed where predecessors have failed? agreement in Paris By Simon Buckle and Sara Moarif The December conference will not solve climate change overnight, but it will put all nations on track towards a 158 A successful outcome in Paris sustainable future. By Christiana Figueres How should we deﬁne ‘success’ at the UN climate meeting in December? By Natalie Samarasinghe 163 About us

SPONSORED FEATURES

39 Water at the core of sustainable development 92 The pivotal role of carbon capture, utilisation ANEAS and storage Jupiter Oxygen Corporation 52 Reducing climate change impact through inclusive partnership 111 Food security: the biggest taboo Korea International Cooperation Agency Compassion in World Farming

71 Communities and land use are key in climate 146 Value rises as carbon falls challenges Triodos Investment Management The James Hutton Institute 151 The Paris Puzzle 75 Marine protection to mitigate climate impacts IPIECA RAMPAO

CLIMATE 2020 Invest ahead for People and Planet UN Photo/Logan Abassi UN Photo/Logan

Invest today for the future we want tomorrow.

From 13 to 16 July, the international community will gather at the Third International Conference on Financing for Development in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to lay the groundwork for new ways to mobilize resources for a sustainable future. 2015 is the time for global action. Addis Ababa is the time to invest ahead for people and planet. www.un.org/ffd3 #FFD3 #Action2015 8 FOREWORD

Paris matters

The summit’s decisions will determine whether people live or die. The rich world must take responsibility and enable developing countries to implement the low-carbon solutions the world needs

By Mary Robinson, UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy on Climate Change and former President of Ireland

y the end of 2015, the Paris climate summit will be over. Big decisions will be taken – or avoided B– by those with political power. Those decisions, or lack of decisions, will determine whether people will live or people will die. So Paris matters. And as a result, what we all do between now and then also matters. This article sets out how progressive citizens, companies, civil society organisations and policy-makers can work together to mobilise global political will, so that Paris can live up to its potential. I will not dwell on the details of the climate challenge – they are set out elsewhere in this publication. But in summary, we need to do two things. Firstly, we must restore our atmosphere’s equilibrium by achieving substantial and sustained cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. And secondly, we must repair the damage already caused by climate change, and build defences against the damage which will be caused in the years Similarly, anyone with a basic sense of morality or ahead because we didn’t act earlier. justice knows that the world must act to prevent the In both cases, the actions of individuals, companies death, pain and economic damage that is occurring and communities can make a positive difference. But to with increasing frequency across the world as a result catalyse action at the scale and pace that the scientific of extreme climatic events. The people impacted by evidence tells us is required, we need global political the devastating floods in Malawi, or the droughts in leadership to change the deeply embedded, day-to-day Colombia, the communities still rebuilding after typhoon economic realities that still support a polluting path to Haiyan in the Philippines or hurricane Sandy in New prosperity. Jersey in the United States and many millions more besides can all bear witness to the immense human pain Mobilising political will caused by extreme events. In all cases, the poorest and At a global level, it is easy to set out what that political most vulnerable suffer the most – anybody who cares leadership needs to achieve. We know that human- about that suffering knows that they are compelled to act. induced climate change has six main causes: dirty So at a global level, the rationale for action is clear. energy, dirty transportation, polluting industrial But it is unlikely that simply repeating the global practices, deforestation, unsustainable agriculture and rationale all the way to Paris will generate sufficient bad waste management. We have solutions to address all political will to act. these root causes – and for many years, we have known Perhaps this is because the global rationale, though that the costs of inaction will greatly outweigh any costs useful as a guide, falls short of a genuine understanding from action. of the varied nature of political leadership required

CLIMATE 2020 FOREWORD 9 © Mohammad Ismail/Reuters

Displaced Afghans across the world. In particular, it fails to internalise the capita emissions to below two tonnes of carbon dioxide, wait for aid in the remote, enormity of the task that is being asked of developing the world’s wealthy countries emit between 8 and 16 mountainous province countries, and addressing this is key to success in Paris. tonnes per capita. Newly industrialising countries are of Badakhshan, May 2014, after landslides To place this view in context: the domestic challenge striving to avoid reaching similar levels. Some are not buried their village for today’s developed countries, who are the historic going to be able to do this. But the world needs them, under up to 50 metres emitters, is clear. They need to sustain their social and developing countries more broadly, to tread a of earth and debris and economic development, while cleaning up from path that has never been trodden before – to become the consequences of over a century of development prosperous, realise their legitimate right to development that has been coupled with greenhouse gas emissions. and stay at low levels of greenhouse gas emissions. That means ﬁnding a way to peak, and then reduce, It is therefore reasonable for many developing emissions. It is encouraging to see the United Kingdom, country leaders to say that expecting them to achieve the rest of the European Union and others providing low emissions levels is effectively asking them to global leadership by enshrining these objectives in forego a proven model of development. It is also national and regional laws and policies. understandable that they say they will only act after But citizens and leaders of developing countries face they have seen the historic emitters act in accordance the greater challenge – they are being asked to create with science in a way that few have done to date, or a form of equitable prosperity that has never been that they point out that many developing countries achieved in history. It is no coincidence that the world’s are already doing more than much of the developed richest countries are the world’s biggest emitters per world to create low-carbon economies. These are all capita. Despite the scientiﬁc need to keep global per legitimate viewpoints.

CLIMATE 2020 10 FOREWORD

Yet, the paradox is that the world needs emerging and new economic models, to spend significant amounts of developing countries to lead the way in pioneering a money to protect vulnerable citizens and communities, new, sustainable development paradigm. This is because and to make their societies and economies resilient to most of the energy supply, buildings and transport the climate change that can no longer be averted. infrastructure that has yet to be built will be in Africa, The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Asia and Latin America. Most of the supply of nutritious provides the platform for advancing this international food to feed an ever-more prosperous and populous cooperation – and the French Government, as hosts world will come from the same places. And the world’s of the Paris climate meeting, have been impressive in major forests – including the Amazon, Congo Basin their recognition of the need for all countries to be and the forests of South East Asia – are in exactly the encouraged to lead instead of pressurised to follow. same regions. Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has also repeatedly So we have a reality where the rich world, which did emphasised the need for a mature discussion about the most to cause the climate problem, now has to enable approach to climate finance. So the possibility of using emerging and developing economies to implement the the road to Paris to mobilise political will is there. low-carbon solutions that will benefit us all. If political However, this possibility will only be realised if will is to be mobilised in the developing world, it needs concerned citizens, organisations and businesses from to be grounded in this reality – and the consequent across the world work to build informed, respectful challenge that unprecedented international co-operation partnerships with those who are willing to lead. is needed to create a fairer enabling environment for developing countries who are prepared to act. Empowering the individual If this seems challenging, then perhaps it is worth International action remembering that despite all the abstract jargon, Two international actions can start to transform the what we are talking about is not just the political environment for mobilising political leadership from the will to address climate change. We are also talking developing world. about creating an unprecedented wave of human First of all, recognising that everyone needs empowerment to combat global poverty and inequality. developing country leadership can change the dynamic Because when you strip away the jargon, you see where people, mostly in the developed world, think that what climate action means in a practical sense is that they can ‘pressurise’ developing countries to act. recognising that there is no solution to climate change Instead, a greater posture of humility might create the if up to three billion people still cook using dangerous space to listen to the solutions that are emerging from and dirty energy sources, with women disproportionally the citizens, communities, businesses and governments burdened by this energy poverty. There is no climate of the developing world. Instead of relying solely on a solution if the communities of forest countries are global rationale and theoretical blueprints, home-grown unable to work with others to protect their forests, or if solutions – including those that require international smallholder farmers are not supported to find ways to support – can be put on the table and discussed. move to sustainable practices. There is no solution if the Secondly, if those involved listen to the views of the hundreds of millions of people living in slums across the developing world and understand their needs, then the world cannot get access to affordable, sustainable food role of climate finance can be properly understood. and energy. Finance and the related area of technology transfer There are many more examples – but the central have been very difficult issues in the international point is that international cooperation can mobilise climate negotiations for years. They are frequently more than just the political will to address climate mis-characterised as an expectation of charity from change. It can also empower billions of people across those too poor to act. But if we share a collective need to the developing world, and unleash the human energy, avert catastrophic climate change, then climate finance perspectives and ideas to create a fairer, better world is a practical manifestation, not of aid or charity, but of for all. The human rights framing for a new path to enlightened self-interest. development is set out in the Universal Declaration In this paradigm, climate action happens in both of Human Rights which states, in Article 28 that: the developed and the developing world, with the “Everyone is entitled to a social and international necessary financial and technological support coming order in which the rights and freedoms set forth in this from the developed world to the developing world. Declaration can be fully realised.” These financial flows are needed to enable developing This is the size of the prize that is within reach. Our countries to catalyse further finances to invest heavily in challenge is to grasp it.

CLIMATE 2020

12 FOREWORD

By Laurent Fabius, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Development, France; and President The Paris of the 21st session of the Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Climate Alliance n December, France will be hosting the 21st UN climate change conference (COP21) in Paris. The It is crucial that the world unites in Paris to resolve the Iaim is to reach a universal agreement limiting global warming to 2°C compared to the pre-industrial era by issue of global warming. The Paris Climate Alliance sets the end of the century. a framework for a just and attainable agreement The task is, of course, complex and, as future COP21 President, my role is to facilitate an ambitious compromise – everyone must now engage for the global good between the 196 Parties: 195 countries and the EU. We cannot afford to fail because, as the UN Secretary- General said, there is no Plan B, for there is no Planet B.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon meets with French Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Development Laurent Ministère des Affaires étrangères et du Développement international/Frédéric de La Mure étrangères des Affaires Ministère

Fabius at the Quai d’Orsay, April 2015 ©

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In order to succeed, we are seeking to build a Paris be sufficient for us to keep within the 2°C limit. That Climate Alliance based on four pillars. would not make COP21 useless, quite the contrary. But Firstly, and most essentially, a universal agreement it does mean that COP21 would not be the end of the with real legal power, which is differentiated – meaning whole process, but rather a starting point. That is why that it takes into account the different situations of each some are suggesting that the agreement should contain country – and allows us to limit global warming to 2°C. elements guaranteeing the continuous enhancement of This agreement will be the touchstone: if we reach it, its level of ambition, with a long-term vision for 2050 then COP21 will have been a success. Very sensitive and beyond. issues still need to be resolved by December. Thirdly, a financial and technological aspect to Secondly, this Paris Alliance will need to have guarantee the effectiveness and equity of the agreement. incorporated the contributions of all the countries, That means not only showing that developed countries including for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions meet their commitments, which they made in by 2025 or 2030, as well as for adaptation to climate Copenhagen in 2009 and confirmed in Cancún in 2010, disruption. There is a risk that simply adding up the to raise $100 billion per year for climate financing by national commitments made prior to COP21 will not 2020. It will also mean determining the basis for long- term financing of a low-carbon economy, particularly beyond 2020. This last point is crucial and concerns the very structure of our economies, redirecting long- term investment, renewal of infrastructure, and our development strategies. The last aspect of this Paris Alliance, which is a novelty compared to previous negotiations, is the commitments of non-governmental stakeholders, including businesses, major cities, regions, associations and civil society, as well as partnerships between governments and these stakeholders. That is what we call the ‘Climate Action Agenda’. Just as countries will submit their national contributions, we need to obtain these non-governmentally determined contributions, to mobilise the whole of the economy and society. I’m often asked if I think we can succeed, given the experience of previous conferences. I hope we can because, despite the complexity of the problems and certain previous failures, the economic, political and scientific climate has changed. Scientifically, very few today question the reality of climate change and its human origin. Politically, there is a strong international mobilisation, as shown, among others, by the European Union’s commitment and that of the United States and China, which are the two largest global emitters. In economic terms, we now have more and more technological solutions at a lower price that will allow our societies to enter the era of low-carbon development. We and the private sector both know that this vital change of path is technically possible and viable, and will create jobs. Of course, not all problems can be solved in Paris, but COP21 needs to be a pivotal moment and a launch-pad towards a lower-carbon economy. I am counting on you, as you know you can count on the French Presidency, to do everything possible to ensure the success of COP21.

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Beyond COP21: from global agreements to local action

Most attention has been focused on a top-down solution for climate change but it will only be achieved through action at all levels, particularly at a community level

By Helen Clark, Administrator, UN Development inequality, enhance resilience and encourage more Programme and former Prime Minister of New Zealand sustainable development pathways. At the community level, innovative action will support 015 presents the global community with a once resilient and sustainable development. In Sudan, for in a generation opportunity to put in place a instance, our work assisting farmers in learning about and 2transformational architecture to tackle climate using new water harvesting techniques, and with training change, eradicate poverty and advance sustainable in the use of irrigation pumps and drought-resistant development overall. The Sendai Framework for seeds, has enabled agricultural-dependent communities to Disaster Risk Reduction, discussions on financing for adapt their livelihoods to the changing climate. development, the Sustainable Development Goals, and Similar measures have been undertaken in Uganda, a proposed new global agreement on climate change are where coffee farmers were sensitised to the possible all essential components of this big year. impacts of even slight climate variation on the quality While negotiations around new frameworks and and quantity of coffee beans – an essential source of commitments dominate the post-2015 discussions, the income and a major export. larger question is about being ready to make good on those commitments in January 2016. Tackling climate change alone will require bold action by all. The focus The focus needs to be on how needs to be on how the political will and intentions of the global community will translate into action the political will and intentions at regional, national and local levels, and how it of the global community will supports developing countries to adapt to and mitigate climate change. translate into action For low-income developing countries in particular, meeting global climate-related commitments will require support from the international community, as At the national level, we have supported governments well as a recalibration of domestic policies and priorities. to put in place policies and incentives that facilitate At UNDP we are well versed in these challenges. For climate-resilient growth. Our support to countries from over a decade, we have been at the forefront of action to Bangladesh to Fiji in Asia-Pacific, and from Kenya tackle climate change. We see it as a major challenge to to Mozambique in Africa, has helped develop strong development and a barrier to poverty eradication if not national policies on climate change and enabled countries decisively addressed. to identify climate challenges and opportunities. Our current climate change-related portfolio In Uruguay, for example, a climate mitigation amounts to $1.3 billion in over 140 developing and energy development project has helped build countries, supporting them to pursue low-emission policies and regulations that incentivise private sector and climate-resilient development. Through this investments in wind energy. As a result, the risks experience, what has also become irrefutable, and surrounding potential investment in low-emission somewhat less publicised, is the great opportunity energy have been substantially reduced, clean energy and potential that climate change action presents for production is significantly up (340 MW in 2014), and developing countries to spur economic growth, address retail tariffs for consumers have dropped.

CLIMATE 2020 FOREWORD 15 © Dylan Lowthian/UNDP

Helen Clark visits Projects such as these require both financial support We need to capitalise and create more examples like Freetown in the aftermath and an effort by those involved to amend the systems this. Climate change is an all-of-society concern requiring of the Ebola crisis. UNDP and policies in place to create the necessary enabling an all-of-society approach with the involvement of a wide supports a number of environmental and environment. range of actors. Relying on contributions from traditional climate-related projects While many countries and communities have donors alone will not be sufficient. in Sierra Leone, including demonstrated their will and capacity to make the As efforts accelerate to reach a climate change its National Adaptation Programme of Action, necessary changes, there does need to be adequate, agreement in Paris in December, the progress already disaster risk reduction stable and dedicated climate finance to back them up. taking place in many countries reminds us that tackling plans and real-time The project in Uruguay required initial seed funding, climate change requires action and that appropriate weather forecasting as well as capacity support to amend policies and build financing must follow words. By ensuring that all infrastructure. The end result is an example of clean, global agreements reached this year are actionable and sustainable and economically viable development, which properly resourced, the big opportunity of integrated stems from both public and private funding, and support action for sustainable development offered by 2015 can from the international community. truly be realised.

CLIMATE 2020 16 FOREWORD

What is stopping us?

An energy revolution is underway. Will governments at Paris speed up the change we need?

By Kumi Naidoo, Executive Director, message of hope. In September 2014, 400,000 people Greenpeace International marched in New York to say: enough is enough – we demand serious action now. On 10 December 2014, the f citizens in 2050 think back to when the warnings largest-ever climate march in Latin America took place about climate change were already crystal clear, will in Lima, Peru to coincide with the UN Framework Ithey blame vacillating politicians and intransigent Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting. fossil fuel companies for their lack of action? Politicians At the same time, it must be increasingly obvious, who said they cared yet continued to put the interests of even to the most hard-headed of people, that acting the coal, oil and gas industries before those of the people, against climate change delivers jobs, protects livelihoods who allowed air pollution to choke an increasingly and creates new opportunities. The days are over urbanised world and failed to prevent climate change when combating climate change could be considered from wreaking increasing havoc on humanity? as a burden – except, it seems, in the halls of the Or will people simply be enjoying life with their international climate talks. families – struggling with getting the kids to school on time and how to pay the rent – safe in the knowledge A real possibility that clean, renewable energy keeps the lights on, powers Renewable sources of energy are simply the most their businesses and that their children will not fall economical options for new power capacity in an victim to yet another war over fossil fuels? ever-increasing number of countries. Wind energy, for This is the choice that faces us now. The future is in example, is the cheapest way to add electricity to the our hands. The good news is that a monumental shift grid in countries including Australia, Brazil, Mexico, is underway in how the world meets its energy needs. A South Africa and Turkey. true energy revolution has already started all over the Governments are not entirely tone deaf to popular world. 2014 saw China use less coal for the first time growing demands, or to the changing economics of this century and install as much solar capacity in one climate action. For the first time ever, the official year as the US has ever done. Such changes have made it possible for China to pledge that it will halt its relentless rise in climate The text agreed in Geneva pollution by 2030 at the latest. That’s not yet enough contains proposals for the world for a safe future. But if during this year China manages a significant shift away from coal it will not just end to be zero carbon by 2050… some unacceptable levels of smog for millions of China’s of the proposals are laden with citizens. A continued decline in China’s coal use also increases the likelihood of China adopting an even more weasel words that must be excised ambitious climate pledge internationally. At this December’s climate summit in Paris, politicians have an opportunity to speed up the negotiating text for the UNFCCC includes a carbon- transition that is already underway. And to acknowledge free future as a possible goal. The text agreed in Geneva that an ever-growing number of citizens are pushing in March contains proposals for the world to be zero their politicians to act, and fast. carbon by 2050. Of course, this is just a draft for now. 2014 saw the rebirth of the global climate movement. And some of the proposals are laden with weasel words People around the world are turning the latest, that must be excised. frightening warnings from climate science – brought But the fact that climate negotiators are talking about together in the Fifth Assessment Report of the UN a carbon-free future shows that this is no longer merely Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – into a the green vision of climate activists. Even in the eyes

CLIMATE 2020 FOREWORD 17 © Adrees Latif/Reuters © Adrees

of government officials it is a real possibility. It is vital International Labour Organization, for example, found The People’s Climate March through New that the document retains a commitment for the world that policies that facilitate the energy transition and York in September to be carbon-free by 2050. This needs to be further combine economic development with environmental 2014, at which world strengthened by concrete proposals to accelerate a improvements could deliver an estimated net gain of up leaders, including UN Secretary-General Ban transition to 100 per cent renewable energy for all. to 60 million jobs. Ki-moon, joined an Achieving this requires a diverse coalition of Change becomes possible when people believe it estimated 400,000 players. One example is a new alliance in the oil-rich is possible. This December’s Paris climate summit in a demonstration demanding action to nation of Norway, where, for the first time in the must become a staging post on the road to a world run tackle climate change country’s history, the environmental movement is on renewable energy. Urgent warnings from climate actively cooperating with leading trade unions and the science, public enthusiasm for change, the growing Norwegian church. Norway’s trade unionists are part number of climate alliances and the economics of of the call for a transition to a renewable economy, renewable energy all resonate on the side of climate and environmentalists support the demand that the action in the run-up to Paris. transition must be fair for those currently employed in There is still time to secure a safe future for us and our the fossil fuel sector. The church is not alone in viewing families that avoids catastrophic climate change. But this the transition as essential on ethical grounds. can only happen if, when they meet in Paris, governments The good news is that societies, in Norway as act on the basis of common societal interest and not on elsewhere, that meet their energy needs renewably behalf of the polluters. They must dare to choose a fossil can provide decent jobs – millions of jobs. The fuel-free future that benefits all of humanity.

CLIMATE 2020 18 INTRODUCTION

Climate 2020

As all parties set their sights on Paris for the UN climate conference in December, this publication offers clear-sighted analysis, practical solutions and a collective vision for the future

By Sir Jeremy Greenstock, Chairman, United Nations Association – UK

n December 2015, states will convene in Paris for the meeting of parties to the UN Framework IConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The purpose of the conference is to adopt a new climate agreement to take effect in 2020. Climate change demonstrates the need for collective action like no other issue. It threatens global capabilities and poses risks to all peoples in all nations. But while it is undeniably a global issue, it has yet to become a multilateral one. In part this is because developed states, and their publics, have focused for too long on climate change

Climate change demonstrates the need for collective action like no other issue. It threatens global capabilities and poses risks to all

as a purely environmental issue, instead of one with profound political and economic impacts. Developing set of ‘nationally appropriate actions’ and ‘nationally countries, particularly the larger ones, have emphasised determined contributions’. We questioned whether such the shorter-term economic costs of action to address a patchwork of commitments could ever be sufficient to climate change, rather than the long-term benefits or reach the goal of limiting global temperature rise costs of inaction. In international fora, the narrative has to 2ºC and see emissions reduce to zero by the end of been one of apportioning responsibility, historical and this century. current, instead of managing shared risks and taking A number of developments indicate this fresh approach advantage of the opportunities that the transition to a is working. First, it has enabled states to move beyond low-carbon world offers. the two-track process created by Kyoto. What is now on This trend has receded in recent years. The the table is an agreement under which all countries will disappointment that followed the 2009 UNFCCC make commitments. Second, key countries, in particular conference in Copenhagen has led to a recalibrated the world’s largest and second-largest emitters – China approach. At first, UNA-UK was concerned by and the US – have set out emissions reduction plans. the direction of travel – a move away from a robust Third, there is movement towards a monitoring system expansion of the Kyoto Protocol to a more diffuse that would review the progress of all states, individually

CLIMATE 2020 INTRODUCTION 19

Nomadic tribes return to north Darfur after years spent as refugees. Climate change amplifies existing threats to the most vulnerable © UN Photo/Albert González Farran González © UN Photo/Albert and collectively. Fourth, plans for financial and technical media; and the widespread impacts of climate change, support to developing countries, though still far from on the global economy, migration and displacement, comprehensive, are being put into practice. Finally, real land use, conflict, food, water and health. They present effort has been put into hammering out issues in smaller a range of solutions, from carbon budgets and trading groups ahead of the Paris summit. to urban planning, with examples of leadership at the Released to coincide with the Bonn UNFCCC local, national and regional levels. They also look at how meeting in June, this publication provides insights and a positive outcome at Paris might be achieved, assessing recommendations on how progress can be achieved in progress to date. the next six months, and what actions could be taken What emerges from Paris is likely to be some way over the next five years before the new agreement takes off the robust treaty that UNA-UK had envisaged. effect. It features contributions from over 50 experts and However, with concerted effort in the lead-up to practitioners, drawn from the UN, government, private December, we hope an agreement will be reached that sector, academia and civil society. evolves, over time, into a coherent, transparent and – Together, they address: climate policy-making; the above all – effective framework to address the biggest role of science, business, civil society, the markets and threat, and opportunity, the world faces.

CLIMATE 2020 20 POLICY & SCIENCE

Policy directed by science

An IPCC report can expect to grab the world’s headlines, and with good reason. Endorsed by governments, each rigorously scrutinised report represents the current state of scientiﬁc evidence and knowledge on climate change

By Renate Christ, Secretary, different audiences we often highlight three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change conclusions: O human influence on the climate system is n November 2014, the Inter- clear; governmental Panel on Climate Change O the more we disrupt our climate, the I(IPCC) released the final instalment more we risk severe, pervasive and of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). irreversible impacts; This is a key input into the climate nego- O we have the means to limit climate change tiations being conducted under the UN and build a more prosperous, sustainable Framework Convention on Climate Change future. (UNFCCC) that are intended to result in a global, legally binding agreement to tackle It’s worth considering how the report’s climate change. The next full round of 830 authors, supported by hundreds of negotiations, or Conference of the Parties, other scientists and experts, reached these takes place in Paris in December and is and other conclusions. Like all science, known as COP21. AR5 builds on previous work. For example, Comprising contributions from each the conclusion in the contribution of IPCC Approval and Acceptance of Working Group III Assessment Report 5, Berlin, 2014 of the IPCC’s three working groups, Working Group I (the physical science basis plus a Synthesis Report, AR5 is the most of climate change) is that “it is extremely comprehensive and largest assessment of likely that human influence has been the certainty, ‘very likely’ with at least 90 per cent climate change – its causes, its impacts, dominant cause of the observed warming certainty, and ‘likely’ at least 66 per cent. possible future risks and options for since the mid 20th century”. So, what enabled the AR5 authors to adaptation and mitigation – produced to This is an advance on the finding of the express this greater certainty? They drew date. I would like to look at some of the key Fourth Assessment Report published in on multiple lines of evidence – higher findings of that report, but also examine 2007 that “most of the observed increase atmospheric and oceanic temperatures, how the IPCC, in what has been described in global average temperatures since the diminishing amounts of snow and ice, rising as one of the largest scientific endeavours mid 20th century is very likely due to sea levels and increased concentrations ever undertaken, reached those conclusions. the observed increase in anthropogenic of greenhouse gases – to conclude The different components of AR5 can greenhouse gas concentrations”. that warming of the climate system is be found on the IPCC website (www.ipcc. That 2007 finding in turn built on the unequivocal, and that many of the observed ch). A very brief summary of the contents Third Assessment Report in 2001, which changes since the 1950s are unprecedented. – four volumes of over 4,800 pages – can noted that “most of the observed warming This strong statement was made at a time be found in the 21 headline statements of over the last 50 years is likely to have been when some bloggers were arguing that the the Synthesis Report, which distils and due to the increase in greenhouse gas slowdown in the rate of surface temperature integrates the findings of the working concentrations”. In IPCC usage, ‘extremely increase over the previous 17 years group contributions.1 In presentations to likely’ means with at least 95 per cent showed that global warming had stopped.

CLIMATE 2020 POLICY & SCIENCE 21 © IPCC/Kriemann

Also in this section

Measurements: what and why 23

Our carbon footprint 27

A new narrative 30

Getting the message right 32

The scientific community continues to Reflecting overall understanding examine the reasons for the slowdown in Having established the fact of warming, the surface temperature rise in recent years. IPCC scientists then looked at the causes. Global mean surface temperature exhibits An analysis of the contributions to observed substantial variability from one year or surface temperature change shows that the decade to the next, and trends based on warming effect of greenhouse gas emissions, short records are very sensitive to the less the cooling effect of other human- beginning and end dates. caused drivers such as aerosols, corresponds For example, if the start year is a hot one closely with the observed warming, while the trend will be lower than by starting natural factors, such as changes in solar with a relatively cool year. Longer-term irradiance and emissions from volcanoes, are observations, however, show a clear trend. negligible. This is what enabled the IPCC Each of the past three decades has been scientists to conclude that it was extremely successively warmer than the preceding likely that human influence was the decades since 1850. An important finding of dominant cause of the observed warming. the Working Group I report in this context I have taken some time to discuss this is that in the 40-year period from 1971 conclusion, but there are plenty of other to 2010, more than 90 per cent of the net examples in AR5 where the findings of the energy increase in the climate system was IPCC rebut arguments that play down the stored in the ocean. threats of climate change. The Working

CLIMATE 2020 22 POLICY & SCIENCE © NASA

Group II contribution (impacts, adaptation to reach their goals. They show multiple Average atmospheric CO2 concentrations from 1 October to 11 November 2014, as recorded and vulnerability) makes it clear that the mitigation pathways that limit warming, by NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 impacts of climate change are already being along with technological, economic, social felt on every continent, from the poles to and institutional challenges and explain the equator, from the mountains to the seas, implications of timing of mitigation efforts, policymakers and the scientific community. and in both rich and poor countries. but it is the policymakers that decide which At the end of the session the Summary for At this point it is worth recalling that the route to follow. This neutrality is one of the Policymakers is approved by consensus, IPCC does not conduct its own research pillars of the IPCC. and by extension the full report is accepted, or its own measurements of climate data. But what makes an IPCC report so robust meaning that the world’s governments stand The mandate of the IPCC is to assess is the unique partnership between scientists behind the findings. the thousands of scientific publications and policymakers. The IPCC’s members are The work of the IPCC does not stop produced each year that are relevant to the world’s governments, and it is they who there. Besides an extensive programme climate change. The IPCC establishes what request the scientific community produce of outreach to present the findings to is known and not known about climate a report. After repeated drafting by the stakeholders in different countries, IPCC change. Where necessary it highlights IPCC’s authors, helped by review comments authors also take part in regular dialogues disagreements and controversies in the from governments and other experts in the with negotiators at the UNFCCC scientific community. But the IPCC does scientific community, the governments then negotiating sessions. Detailed presentations not have its own view. It simply reflects examine the Summary for Policymakers of are followed by in-depth discussions to the overall understanding of the scientific each instalment of the report in detail. ensure that negotiators have a thorough community on this subject. In an approval session, the government understanding of the report’s conclusions. The objectivity of the IPCC goes representatives propose changes for the sake As a result, the last full session of the beyond this. While it may lay out options of clarity and consistency. The scientists UNFCCC, COP20 in Lima, explicitly for governments to tackle the risks of responsible for that part of the report welcomed AR5, acknowledged it climate change, it never tells them what decide whether the proposed change is provided the scientific foundation for the to do. The IPCC is policy-relevant but scientifically sound and consistent with negotiations, urged negotiators to use the never policy-prescriptive. The authors the underlying report. Only then will it information in AR5 in their discussions, and of Working Group III (mitigation of be accepted. The result of this dialogue invited the IPCC to continue to provide climate change) like to use the image of a between those who request the report information to its parties. mapmaker: the scientists produce a map and will use it, and those who write it for 1 www.ipcc.ch/news_and_events/docs/ar5/ar5_syr_ for policymakers that will enable them them, is a strong text endorsed by both headlines_en.pdf

CLIMATE 2020 POLICY & SCIENCE 23

Measurements: what and why?

Scientiﬁc measurements provide hard data about key climate change indicators such as global temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations and sea levels. But what do they reveal about the causes of climate change, and how reliably can they help us predict the planet’s climate in the future? © Ocean Biology Processing Group at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Flight Space at NASA's Goddard Group Biology Processing © Ocean

By Judith Lean, Senior Scientist for Sun–Earth the middle atmosphere and upper Southern Africa and the surrounding oceans System Research, Space Science Division, captured by the NASA/NOAA Suomi National atmosphere are cooling; sea level is rising; Polar-orbiting Partnership spacecraft, which tracks US Naval Research Laboratory and Arctic sea ice is declining. winds, tides and density differences of the oceans A combination of natural and human- bservations of Earth made in made inﬂuences accounts for much of the a mid-range scenario suggests that global the past three decades provide measured variations in Earth’s temperature surface temperatures may rise approximately Omeasurements with unprecedented in recent decades, successfully capturing 1ºC from 2015 to 2095. quality and coverage that collectively the lull in surface warming from 2001 to Earth’s surface is our home and its synthesise how our environment is 2010 and the distinct differences between temperature is the most widely used and changing. Globally, the surface, lower temperature variations at the surface and in longest directly observed indicator of atmosphere and upper ocean are warming; the atmosphere at 20km. A projection using how climate is changing. Removing the

CLIMATE 2020 24 POLICY & SCIENCE

Figure 1. Figure 2.

Measurements Measurements of Arctic sea ice4 and global sea level5 also show notable of Earth’s global trends in recent decades temperature anomalies from 1979 to 2014 at the surface,1 in the atmosphere2 and in the upper ocean3 exhibit overall trends in the past three decades, represented by the straight lines

seasonal cycle from direct measurements influences, whose relative strengths differ the warmest on record until recently, whereas and integrating measurements from around for the surface, atmosphere and oceans. the El Chichón volcanic eruption mitigated the globe produces records of global Natural influences include changes in the the impact of a comparable El Niño in 1982. temperature residual variations that are sun’s brightness, episodic injections of Although volcanic emissions cool the Earth’s traditionally called ‘anomalies’. Figure 1 volcanic aerosols into the atmosphere and surface, they warm the lower stratosphere. shows global temperature anomalies of the semi-regular fluctuations associated with the Also extracted from the measurements surface, atmosphere and ocean during the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) near are changes of about 0.1ºC at the surface past 36 years. the surface, the Quasi Biennial Oscillation and 0.3ºC at 20km due to increasing solar Between 1979 and 2014, Earth’s surface in the atmosphere, and the Atlantic brightness from the minimum to maximum warmed at a rate of 0.15ºC per decade. The Meridional Oscillation in the ocean. of the sun’s 11-year activity cycle. lower atmosphere (troposphere) and upper Human-made influences include increasing Natural influences cannot account for ocean also warmed, at rates of 0.13ºC and concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse the overall trends in global temperature 0.045ºC per decade, respectively. However, gases (GHGs, especially CO2), industrial measurements in the past three decades, the atmosphere near 20km (the lower aerosols and ozone-depleting substances, strongly implicating the presence of stratosphere) cooled at a rate of 0.3ºC primarily chlorofluorocarbons. human-made influences. Increased GHGs per decade. Figure 3 shows that appropriate warm the Earth’s surface because they trap Measurements also indicate that many combinations of natural and human-made infrared energy that the (solar-heated) Earth other aspects of Earth are changing as influences (determined statistically from radiates to space. But increased GHGs cool surface temperatures increase. Figure 2 the measurements6) reproduce both the the atmosphere above, because the much shows that Arctic sea ice area declined at a multi-year fluctuations and the overall thinner overlying atmosphere allows the rate of 0.5×106 km2 per decade and global trends in temperature at the surface and heat to escape. Thus, simultaneous global sea level increased at a rate of 32mm per in the atmosphere in recent decades, warming at the surface and cooling in the decade in the recent past. including the lack of surface warming from atmosphere near 20km from 1979 to 2014 is 2001 to 2010. consistent with increasing concentrations of Decoding natural and human-made On timescales of a few years, El Niños and GHGs. The decline in 20km temperature influences volcanic eruptions produce episodic global also reflects contributions of changing Earth’s changing global temperatures are surface warming of as much as 0.3ºC. A ozone concentrations, affected by ozone- the result of both natural and human-made ‘super’ El Niño in 1998 caused that year to be depleting substances.

CLIMATE 2020 POLICY & SCIENCE 25

Figure 3.

Compared with the measured global temperature anomalies at the surface (left) and in the atmosphere near 20km (right) are representations of changes attributed statistically to natural and human- made inﬂuences, whose individual contributions are shown in the lower panels

Projection scenarios activity subside over the next century into and altering large-scale atmospheric A simple forward projection of the human- a prolonged period of inactivity, such as dynamic features (for example, the polar made component of surface temperature occurred during the 17th century Maunder vortex and the jet stream) that subsequently measurements anticipates global surface Minimum, solar brightness may decrease modulate surface temperatures over broad warming of 1ºC from 2015 to 2095 using a by more than has been measured in the swathes of the northern hemisphere.8 mid-level scenario for future human-made past three decades. Current understanding influences. Figure 4 shows this scenario nevertheless suggests that the resultant Modelling the changes and the corresponding global surface global surface cooling would be less than Models that use numerical parameters temperature trajectory. The shaded area a few tenths of a degree Celsius, which is to describe physical Earth processes and on the bottom plot illustrates a range of an order of magnitude smaller than the their responses to changing natural and plausible human-made scenarios. projected human-made warming. human-made influences are a primary tool Northern hemisphere mid and high A strong caveat for climate projections for understanding and forecasting climate latitudes over land are warming faster than is emerging evidence from recent change. The models’ most reliable products tropical and southern latitudes, and are measurements that climate may now are arguably simulations and projections of likely to warm more in the future. This be changing more rapidly than physical global surface temperature on timescales is evident in the regional patterns of the models expect7, and in non-linear ways that dominated by increasing GHGs, albeit with surface temperature anomalies in 2005 statistical analysis of extant measurements tangible uncertainties because of the range of compared with those in 1955, shown in (Figure 3) do not capture. their sensitivities. The models project global Figure 4. This is also evident in both the For example, whether summer sea ice surface temperature increases of 2ºC to 4.5ºC statistical projections of the measurements disappears completely in the next few for doubled CO2 concentrations. Statistical and physical model simulations of surface decades (as the measurements appear to analysis of the measurements suggests the temperatures in 2095. suggest) or not until after 2050, as the corresponding warming is 2.3ºC. The projection of global surface physical models expect, may affect surface Simulations and projections of regional temperature in Figure 4 includes a temperature projections in the next few surface temperature changes are less certain simulated solar brightness cycle (but not decades. This is anticipated because open than for global values. This is in part because ENSO or volcanic aerosols scenarios), ocean exposed by Arctic sea ice summer of difficulty in modelling latitudinal thermal which modulates the overall warming melting absorbs more solar energy, reducing gradients9 that control the dynamic motions trajectory very slightly. Should the Sun’s the equator–pole temperature difference that produce regional irregularities. In

CLIMATE 2020 26 POLICY & SCIENCE

simulations such as that shown in Figure 4 of regional surface temperature changes for Figure 4. double CO2 concentrations, made by the Measured global surface temperature anomalies are shown from 1890 to 2014, and projected forward assuming a NASA climate model GISS Model 3, rising mid-level scenario for future human-made (anthropogenic) climate forcing. The corresponding measured regional GHG concentrations produce enhanced surface temperature anomalies are shown for 1955 and 2005, and projected for 2095. Also shown is a physical model simulation by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model 3 of surface temperature regional changes for warming at high latitudes and over land, doubled CO2 concentrations consistent with analysis of the measurements. In the North Atlantic region, however, warming is minimal because a slower Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation reduces ocean transport of warm tropical water to higher latitudes. In contrast, statistical projections based on the surface temperature measurements, also shown in Figure 4, foresee more Northern Atlantic warming. This emphasises the importance of better understanding the projections of ocean circulation changes. Physical models are less capable of simulating and forecasting climate change in the next decade than in the next century. This is because their representations of responses to shorter-term volcanic aerosol, solar irradiance and internal ﬂuctuations are less robust than is their response to increasing GHGs. As a result, physical model simulations did not capture the observed lack of an upward trend in global surface temperature from 2001 to 2010, leading some to designate this decade as a hiatus in climate change. The NCAR CCSM4 climate model,10 for example, overestimates the global warming due to GHGs and the cooling due to volcanic aerosols. It also underestimates the from 2001 to 2010. In terms of statistical more certain, and validation of physical effect of solar brightness changes and is not analysis of measurements, the so-called model simulations will improve their able to reproduce actual ENSOs. Statistical hiatus is not exceptional at all. future capabilities. analysis (Figure 3) suggests, however, that a As ongoing Earth observations continue combination of more La Niña (the opposite to extend the temporal coverage of Acknowledgements: The USA Ofﬁce of Naval ENSO phase to El Niño) conditions and measurements, and improved measurements Research and NASA supported this work. declining solar brightness countered much become available, understanding of climate Ongoing discussions with David Rind are of the human-made warming in the decade change will grow, attribution will become appreciated.

1 The global surface temperature anomalies shown www.nodc.noaa.gov/General/temperature.html 8 Francis, J. A., and S. J. Vavrus, Evidence linking are averages of three records, reported by UK 4 Arctic sea ice data: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ Arctic amplification to extreme weather in MetOffice, NASA/GISS and NOAA/NCDC: 5 Global sea level data: mid-latitudes, Geophys. Res. Lett, L06801, www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut3/ www.nodc.noaa.gov/General/sealevel.html doi:10.1029/2012GL051000, 2012. diagnostics/comparison.html 6 Lean, J., and D. Rind, How natural and 9 Rind, D., The consequences of not knowing www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/quick-links anthropogenic influences alter global and regional low- and high-latitude climate sensitivity, BAMS, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006, Geophys. Res. doi:10.1175/2007BAMS2520.1. 2008 2 The global atmospheric temperature anomalies Lett., 35, L18701, doi:10.1029/2008GL034864, 10 Meehl, G. A., W. M. Washington, J. M. Arblaster, shown are averages of MSU observations processed 2008. A. Hu, H. Teng, C. Tebaldi, B. N. Sanderson, J- F. separately by UHA and RSS: 7 Stroeve, J., M. M. Holland, W. Meier, T. Scambos, Lamarque, A. Conley, W. G. Strand and J. B. White www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/ and M. Serreze, Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than III, Climate system response to external forcings www.remss.com/missions/amsu forecast, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09501, doi: and climate change projections in CCSM4, J. Clim., 3 The global upper ocean temperature data: 10.1029/2007GL029703, 2007. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00240.1. 2012

CLIMATE 2020 POLICY & SCIENCE 27

Our carbon footprint

How have human-made carbon emissions altered the chemical balance of the atmosphere and oceans? Are we reaching a planetary tipping point?

By Pieter P. Tans, Head, Carbon Cycle The peak-to-trough amplitude was from about 0.7 ppm per year in the early Greenhouse Gases Group, Earth System about six parts per million (ppm) in the years to slightly over two ppm per year Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and early part of the record and is now typically today. Half of all fossil-fuel emissions since Atmospheric Administration about seven ppm. It takes the removal pre-industrial times have taken place since of approximately seven billion tonnes of 1988. There were large ups and downs of he Keeling Curve, the iconic record carbon (the same as 25.7 billion tonnes of CO2 during ice ages and warm interglacial of atmospheric carbon dioxide CO2) to lower CO2 in the entire hemisphere periods over the last 800,000 years. T(CO2) measured at the Mauna Loa by seven ppm. Currently all global Figure 2 shows the transition that has Observatory (Figure 1) reveals a stunning emissions from the burning of coal, oil and been measured in the greatest detail in fact. It shows the annual cycle, caused by net natural gas, and from cement production, ice cores from the last glacial period to uptake of CO2 by terrestrial ecosystems in amount to 10 billion tonnes per year, more the Holocene, the warm period we are in the northern hemisphere during the growing than the net seasonal uptake by all crops, today. It took natural processes 6,000 years season, and approximately the same amount forests, grasslands and tundra combined. to increase CO2 by 80 ppm, in two steps. of carbon released back to the atmosphere It should therefore be no surprise that The most rapid rates of increase during through respiration of plants and soils during the most striking feature of the Keeling these steps were 0.019 and 0.026 ppm per the rest of the year. Curve is the overall increase, accelerating year. Today’s annual rise of two ppm is an

CLIMATE 2020 28 POLICY & SCIENCE

Figure 1: the Keeling Curve Figure 2: CO2 during end of last ice age

Monthly mean CO2 levels at Mauna Loa Observatory, located at an altitude of 3,400 High temporal resolution carbon dioxide in an Antarctic ice core when the Earth moved metres on the main island of Hawai’i. Only episodes of clean air from the middle of the from the last ice age into the current interglacial warm period. atmosphere over the Paciﬁc Ocean are included in the monthly means.

280

400 260

380 240 PPM

PPM 360 220

340 200

320

May 2012 May 180 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 Year Thousands of years before present explosion compared to natural processes. inorganic carbon (DIC). There is about 60 1600, during what is called the Little Ice Age. If all annual emissions could somehow be times more carbon as DIC in the oceans In the following decades the changes confined to a layer of pure CO2 covering the than as CO2 in the atmosphere. accelerated. The terrestrial biosphere lost surface of the entire Earth, that layer would However, when additional CO2 is added carbon due to deforestation and other land be four centimetres thick. to the coupled atmosphere-ocean system use change during the 19th and first half the chemical equilibria shift in such a of the 20th century. After the mid-20th Oceans way that, when a new equilibrium is century, terrestrial ecosystems became CO2 emitted from anywhere will spread reached, the oceans store six times more of a net absorber of carbon, more than to everywhere in the atmosphere in about the added carbon than the atmosphere – or counteracting still ongoing deforestation. one year. The rate of increase in the ten times less than a naïve expectation of 60 atmosphere has been about half as much as times more. Longevity of the emissions global emissions from burning fossil fuels. Figure 3 shows the fate of past emissions, The timescale of the human-caused CO2 The other half has entered the oceans and based on a basic mass-balance model. At enhancement is of the order of several the terrestrial biosphere in roughly equal this point we have burned about 400 billion thousand years. That is how long it takes proportions. CO2 is a water-soluble acid. tonnes of carbon. Plotted are cumulative for dissolution of calcium/magnesium Most ocean surface waters are in near actual emissions until today. Starting from carbonate sediments on the ocean floor to chemical equilibrium with the atmosphere, an initial steady state, a simple model of neutralise the acid CO2. After that time the so that acidification of the upper oceans is ocean uptake estimates how much carbon the enhancement is still present in the oceans a direct consequence of higher CO2 in the changing atmosphere forces into (or pulls out but no longer in the atmosphere, and the atmosphere. Dissolved CO2 in the oceans of) the oceans. ocean acidification has been reversed. There is only a small component (about one Mass balance is provided by the terrestrial are two immediate implications. The CO2 per cent) of the carbonate system, which biosphere – the sum of the changes in enhancement remains in the atmosphere consists almost entirely of bicarbonate ions the atmosphere, oceans and terrestrial and oceans ‘forever’, at least compared to (about 90 per cent) and carbonate ions ecosystems always equals cumulative the timescale of most civilisations, if we let (nine per cent). The sum of these three industrial emissions (which remain near zero nature take its course. Also, over centuries, components, which are always in chemical until the 19th century). One can see that the climate forcing by CO2 depends equilibrium, is called total dissolved atmospheric CO2 was a little lower starting in primarily on the total cumulative emissions,

CLIMATE 2020 POLICY & SCIENCE 29

Figure 3: cumulative global emissions of CO2 Figure 4: future scenario

Cumulative global emissions of CO2 and accompanying changes in the atmosphere, A plausible future scenario. Solid lines show cumulative carbon emissions from fossil oceans and terrestrial biosphere. The empirical ocean model is forced to ﬁt two fuel burning and resulting changes in the atmosphere and oceans. The atmospheric constraints: the total carbon increase as observed during the World Ocean Circulation CO2 curve refers to both the left and right y-axes. Zero CO2 enhancement on the left

Experiment/Joint Global Ocean Flux Studies campaign, centred on 1994, and the axis corresponds to pre-industrial CO2 of 280 ppm on the right axis. The vertical line is average rate of uptake as inferred from minute changes of the ratio of oxygen to drawn for the start of the year 2015, and until then the curves are the same as in Figure nitrogen observed in the atmosphere. 3. Dashed lines assume removal of a total of 100 billion tonnes of carbon from the emissions over a 100-year period, from 2020 to 2120.

400

1000 fossil fossil 300 atmosphere 700 oceans 800 terrestrial biosphere oceans 200 600 600

500 PPM 100 400 atmosphere 400

Billion tonnes carbon 200 0 terrestrial biosphere 300 0

00 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 Year Year not on how rapidly or slowly they occur. cent respectively, which follows from the is currently estimated to emit one billion Future climate forcing resulting from chemical equilibrium outlined above. tonnes of carbon per year, about one tenth human activities depends primarily on of that from fossil fuels. Future scenarios Carbon cycle management cumulative CO2 emissions. This is because of climate forcing are also dominated by it has been the most important greenhouse Suppose we remove 100 billion tonnes of the total amount of fossil fuels we end up gas so far and it has one of the longest carbon from the emissions, either by not burning. Any carbon mitigation strategy lifespans of all greenhouse gases. emitting that CO2 in the first place, or by has to compensate for all cumulative CO2 An illustration of a plausible future, using pulling it out of the atmosphere (which emissions, not just the portion that resides the same mass-balance model, is sketched requires a lot of energy) and storing it in in the atmosphere. in Figure 4. It assumes that cumulative geological formations, or by letting plants Given the enormous scale and the emissions end up being 1,000 billion pull it out, storing it as organic matter long-term commitment to climate change, tonnes of carbon. The future emissions in plants and soils. We assume that this I would say there is no way around are assumed to take place according to a happens as one billion tonnes every year committing very large resources to tackle logistic function that assumes that reserves from 2010 to 2110. The impact on the the emissions as vigorously and as soon gradually become more dilute and harder atmosphere and oceans is shown as the as possible. to extract, requiring more and more energy dashed lines in Figure 4. The total amount References and financing per tonne extracted. would correspond to a decrease of 47 Manning, A., and R. Keeling, (2006). Global oceanic and It is quite likely that wars also play a ppm in the atmosphere, but eventually land biotic carbon sinks from the Scripps atmospheric large role, and that renewable energy only about one seventh of that will remain oxygen flask sampling network, Tellus 58B, pp. 96–116. sources will take over. If we also assume, because the oceans will hold six sevenths of Monnin, E. et al, (2001). Atmospheric CO2 for clarity, that the terrestrial biosphere the cumulative negative emissions, the same concentrations over the Last Glacial Termination, Science 291, pp. 112–14. doi: 10.1126/ remains constant from 2015 on, the oceans proportion as for the positive emissions. science.291.5501.112. will hold about 80 per cent of the emissions Sabine, C. et al., (2004). The oceanic sink for and the atmosphere 20 per cent in the year Some conclusions anthropogenic CO2, Science 305, pp. 367–71. 2500. The atmosphere and ocean will have Human impact dominates the Tans, P., (2009). An accounting of the observed increase chemically equilibrated when the respective contemporary carbon cycle. Land use in oceanic and atmospheric CO2 and an outlook for the fractions are 85.7 per cent and 14.3 per change, the second largest contribution, future, Oceanography 22, no.4, pp. 26–35.

CLIMATE 2020 30 POLICY & SCIENCE © Juan Barreto/AFP/Getty Images © Juan Barreto/AFP/Getty

By James Painter, Director, Journalism Programme, Reuters Institute for the Study of A new narrative Journalism, University of Oxford

Attention-grabbing messages of impending tories in the international media about climate change tend to peak catastrophe dominate media coverage of climate Sin volume when there are new change. But do these narratives truly engage reports about the science, some controversy involving scientists, or UN meetings to audiences, or is a more balanced approach needed? discuss possible measures to reduce carbon emissions. The ﬁrst two of these often mean that journalists, naturally drawn to novelty and controversy, emphasise the latest ‘doom and gloom’ aspects of the adverse impacts of a warming world, or stress (by implication or design) some of the uncertainties about the science. So it’s difﬁcult to re-shape the climate change mega-story away from disaster and uncertainty into something else, such as the

CLIMATE 2020 POLICY & SCIENCE 31

Icons of famous landmarks submerged by Greenpeace The latest round of blockbuster reports populations, resource constraints and activists in Cancún, Mexico during COP16 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate climate change) accompanied by a positive Change (IPCC) provided plenty of source story that cutting greenhouse emissions can material for journalists around the world. be low cost and improve people’s lives. opportunities around moving to a low- A recent study carried out for the Reuters carbon economy or thinking of the climate Institute for the Study of Journalism (RISJ)3 Mind your language challenge as one of managing risk. examined the coverage of the reports on The RISJ study also found that the ‘risk’ Why does this matter? Doom-laden television. In most countries, television is narrative hardly got a mention in coverage of depictions of climate change are ubiquitous still the most used and trusted source of the IPCC reports. This is surprising because in the media. And results from focus groups information, both for news in general and in the press release and communication show that while disaster narratives and news about science. For instance, just one efforts around the second report (Working images may be good at attracting attention, evening news bulletin can attract a larger Group II or WGII), the IPCC went to they are not so good at motivating genuine audience than the circulation of a national considerable lengths to portray the climate personal engagement or behaviour change. newspaper. The channels monitored in the change challenge as one of risk management. Some scientists are tackling this study have a combined audience of about 50 The co-chair of WGII, Chris Field, spoke problem head on. An inquiry last year million viewers. repeatedly and eloquently about the need, in on communicating climate science1 led The study showed that in the television the face of uncertainty, to weigh up the risks by Professor Chris Rapley at University coverage of the IPCC reports, the disaster of possible outcomes. College London spelled it out: strong narrative was still by far the most common Many politicians and climate reports appeals to fear are unlikely to avert danger in the six countries examined (Australia, now use risk language. For example, British and can generate defensive avoidance (“this Brazil, China, Germany, India and the UK). Prime Minister David Cameron has argued is too scary to think about”) or worries of It is not surprising that disaster should that: “if someone came to you and said there being pressured or constricted (“they are be more common than the other narratives is a 95 per cent chance that your house trying to manipulate me”). The report might burn down, even if you are in the five points out that initial states of worry and per cent that doesn’t agree with it, you still anxiety can change over time to numbness, Initial states of anxiety take out the insurance, just in case.” desensitisation and disengagement from the can change over time to Does such language help? It may do for issue altogether. some audiences, particularly in the business We know quite a lot too about how numbness, desensitisation sector, who deal every day with assessing different publics, including policymakers, and disengagement investment, insurance and other types of receive messages of uncertainty about risk. They were clearly the target audience climate science. The challenge for for a path-breaking report published last communicators is that there are many (uncertainty, opportunity and explicit risk) June called Risky Business,4 which used uncertainties about climate science – the study surveyed. The IPCC reports a risk management perspective to lay particularly the timing, severity and location were full of the adverse impacts of runaway out the risks for agriculture, energy and of the adverse impacts. greenhouse gas emissions – more famine, coastal real estate in the USA. The report But scientific uncertainty is often sea-level rises, floods, hurricanes and received a lot of media coverage in the US misunderstood, particularly by the general droughts – which make for compelling news. and British business press, which helped public, and misinterpreted as ignorance. Indeed, several other studies show to shift the climate change story out of its Or people can accept the science but not that the disaster theme is by far the most environment ghetto. This enlargement of be convinced by the solutions being put common in the coverage of climate change. the story into other areas like health, air forward. Uncertainty can also be an obstacle At times, this ‘alarming’ story morphs into pollution, financial investments or energy to decision-making, as some policymakers the more ‘alarmist’ language of catastrophe, security demonstrated one of the best ways will argue that they need more certainty calamity or doom. of engaging a wider audience and making it before they take action. But this doesn’t mean we need a plethora more relevant to their lives. Climate sceptics, particularly in countries of overly positive narratives about climate 1 www.ucl.ac.uk/public-policy/policy_commissions/ like the USA, UK and Australia, have change to try and counteract the negative Communication-climate-science/Communication- exploited the uncertainties to argue that ones. A balance needs to be struck. The climate-science-report/TIME_FOR_CHANGE_ Final_Proof.pdf no action is needed to curb greenhouse gas recent New Climate Economy report, 2 https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/publication/ emissions.2 Climate change has become a published by The Global Commission on climate-change-media highly politically polarised issue in these the Economy and Climate, was a good 3 https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/publication/ disaster-averted-television-coverage-201314- countries, which partisan media pick up on example of giving a sober assessment of the ipcc%E2%80%99s-climate-change-reports and reinforce. challenges (rapid urbanisation, growing 4 http://riskybusiness.org/

CLIMATE 2020 32 POLICY & SCIENCE

Getting the message right

How can climate communicators drive the behavioural changes that are needed if the planet is to avoid climate-related catastrophe?

By Chris Rose, Director, Campaign Strategy Ltd it fell to the meteorologists. Do an internet search for ‘Inter-governmental Panel on ommunications expert Frank Luntz Climate Change’ (IPCC) and ‘World wrote a book in 2007 called Words Meteorological Organization’ (WMO) and CThat Work. Luntz popularised the use you find this explanation: of those widgets you see on TV where a live “In 1988, through a UN General audience turns a dial to say whether they like Assembly resolution entitled ‘Protection what a politician is saying or not. Political of global climate for present and future tacticians then use the audience’s response generations of mankind’, WMO and the to fine tune political messages. It’s at once UN Environmental Programme established both the crudest and most sophisticated sort the IPCC with the goals to: of communications design. And it generates O Assess available scientific information on the type of key insights that the scientists climate change in charge of climate communications have O Assess the environmental and socio- failed to adopt. economic impacts of climate change Luntz has become rich by advising lots of O Formulate response strategies”1 Fortune Top 500 companies. Who has been more successful at getting what they want in No mention of communication. Nor communications. It’s not for want of advice. recent decades: the climate community or does it seem that they anticipated what Thousands of blogs, articles and studies big business? would be required to achieve this intensely have shown why macro and micro-scale Scientists can be forgiven for apparently political task. communications intended to do something ignoring the insights of modern effective about climate could be better. communications research, even knowledge Communications science? For instance, do climate scientists talk that was already old when climate change I doubt that they teach much about about the fate of their children when they sprang onto the global political scene in cognitive psychology, advertising, marketing speak of the fate of the planet? Probably the late 1970s. Professional advocates and or politics at weather school. Things not. Do they seem worried or professionally campaigners have less excuse. But, largely like heuristics, framing and values. Not detached? In general they lack congruence: by accident, it was scientists who got put in surprisingly, the climatologists have proved they announce Armageddon but are not pole position. fabulously ill-equipped to deliver effective even packing their bags. Of all the people to be gifted with the climate communications. Unfortunately, the Luntz’s subtitle was It’s Not What You poisoned chalice of informing the global UN system has not moved on from the need Say, It’s What People Hear. He was right of population that humanity had finally over- to establish the science (which it did fairly course. If a scientist refers three times to stretched the ability of the planet to cope well) to the need to create the reaction. uncertainties, people conclude that she or with our activities – that our destruction of Would you ask the likes of Frank Luntz to he is uncertain. Would you act on uncertain forests, our pollution of oceans and, above create a climate model, let alone tomorrow’s advice? Well, no. When a research scientist all, our burning of coal, oil and gas meant local weather forecast? Of course not. Yet is asked what needs to happen next, and she that mass extinctions, droughts, storms, climate scientists seem to think they can or he says ‘more research’, do you conclude floods, death and disaster were on the way – ignore even the most basic rules of public it’s time for action? Well, no.

CLIMATE 2020 POLICY & SCIENCE 33 © Spencer Platt/Getty Images Platt/Getty © Spencer

This, fundamentally, is why so much Change (UNFCCC), institutionalised Activists protest against the influence of billionaire and Republican financier David Koch, whose company, communications effort intended to spur a frame of action waiting for scientific Koch Industries Inc., has provided strong financial action has not been as effective as it could uncertainty to be resolved. As scientific support to climate sceptic groups and lobbied congress have been (and disastrously so). Most knowledge is always provisional, this was a against climate action. The sceptic lobby has had a far more professional approach to communications climate communications have not been recipe for procrastination, unintentionally evidence-based: they have been amateurish. underpinned by ‘good practice’ in science Luntz is notorious among climate and in the media. Scientists are trained not conducted between 2011 and 2015 in 15 campaigners for his 2003 memo to the to make definitive claims. The BBC was so countries including China, the US, the climate-sceptic US Bush administration: devoted to the principle of balance that until Philippines, Brazil and Russia shows that “Voters believe that there is no consensus 2014 it had a policy of presenting climate this is no longer a real issue, even if it still about global warming within the scientific change as an undecided, open scientific preoccupies the media in countries like the community. Should the public come to question in which there were two sides. US and UK. believe that the scientific issues are settled, The fossil fuel industry exploited this In these surveys, people responded to their views about global warming will framing by funding climate sceptics to feed the statement ‘Climate change – I don’t change accordingly. Therefore, you need the instincts of institutions like the BBC. believe in it’ with a one-to-five scale from to continue to make the lack of scientific They did not need to win any arguments, ‘strongly agree’ to ‘strongly disagree’. In all certainty a primary issue in the debate.”2 merely to extend the uncertainty. 15 countries, climate believers outnumbered This strategy proved devilishly effective. One legacy is the fixation of pollsters, sceptics, and in no country did ‘strong The UN system, in which the IPCC fed media and politicians with whether or scepticism’ (strongly agreeing) reach more scientific advice to the politicians in the not the public believes in climate change. than 16 per cent. In eight countries, people UN Framework Convention on Climate Recent analysis of representative surveys were also asked if they had noticed the

CLIMATE 2020 34 POLICY & SCIENCE

National attitudes to climate change: ‘I don’t believe in it’

50 % disagree 40 agree neither 30

0 US UK SAF India Brazil Japan China Kenya Russia Turkey Thailand Australia Indonesia Argentina Philippines © Chris Rose/Greenpeace

The blue bars represent ‘believers’, orange the It was segmented by motivational values, fuels (where is the summit on that?), ‘sceptics’. In all 15 countries surveyed belief in climate change far outweighed scepticism classifying responders as settlers (security for negotiating away carbon stockpiles driven), prospectors (esteem driven) and (resources and reserves) or stimulating pioneers (inner directed). major technologies (like electric cars or climate changing. In each case a majority These groups were then subdivided carbon capture and storage). Leaving these said yes. into 12 ‘values modes’. These real but to civil society and the markets alone is Such questions are not answered invisible groups have three different sets of overly optimistic. analytically but intuitively (distinguished by unconscious values and three versions of At a human level, climate-relevant Nobel Prize-winning psychologist Daniel what is really true (and, therefore, common communications needs to be thoroughly Kahneman as System 2 – hard, analytical – sense). In all 15 countries, just two values professionalised – to reach the level of, and System 1 – easy, reﬂexive, unconscious). modes lead the climate believers and those say, the cosmetics industry. Have you seen This explains how many of those who said ready to act, while another two with opposed adverts in which 97 per cent from a sample they had noticed the climate changing also values are champions of scepticism and of 86 women say this hair or skin product said they did not believe in climate change. reluctant to act. works? Why do we need such scant analysis The same surveys asked about increasing In short, opinion about climate change to support such choices? Because we want to renewable energy as the main source of is not driven by the facts and analysis that believe. Nobody wants to believe in climate electricity. In all eight countries where scientists are (rightly) trained to deal in but catastrophe but many want to believe in the questions were asked, a majority agreed (in by deep human needs for safety, belonging solutions. most cases by over 70 per cent). and identity (settlers), for esteem of others Climate communicators need to forget So why are so many pollsters, the media and self-esteem (prospectors), or for ethics, about explaining climate change (people and even campaigners still focused on the holism, universalism and self-direction already agree) and instead use professionals belief question, even though sustaining that (pioneers). Where offers or propositions to drive behavioural change that delivers frame only helps their opponents? Perhaps match people’s underlying values, people real-world results, such as conversion to because one of the last global hold-outs of support them. Where they don’t, people electric cars. Climate scientists are not the climate scepticism is in the small goldﬁsh ignore or reject them. Communicators need people to do this. Nor are politicians, but pond of the US Congress. Recent surveys to take account of this reality. they can provide the context, incentives show most Republican congresspeople and and resources. activists are still climate change sceptics, Where do we go from here? It’s time for a psychological makeover of even though their voters are not. This does At a macro-political level the global climate the UN’s climate communications. not represent America, let alone the rest of system needs to remedy omissions. It the world. It’s not the problem. has covered off climate science but has 1 See: www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/ international_ipcc.php The 15-country survey series, conducted no international mechanisms for key 2 See: www.theguardian.com/environment/2003/ for Greenpeace, also shows something else. requirements like disinvestment in fossil mar/04/usnews.climatechange

CLIMATE 2020 Every picture tells a story. Educators know what it takes to make students successful. And they’re leading the way forward, joining with communities and organizations in every sector urging governments to commit to quality education. The same policies and practices of quality education that lead to success for students also provide nations a path to eliminate poverty, foster prosperity and promote citizenship. Education International is united for quality education to strengthen the voices of millions of educators on behalf of quality teachers, tools and environments for every student.

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Education International is the voice of teachers and other education employees across the globe. www.ei-ie.org A federation of 401 associations and unions in 171 countries and territories, it represents some 30 million educators and support professionals in education institutions from early childhood to university. 36 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES

The right to development

Confronting climate change will require a new economic model. Countries’ right to develop can provide the moral compass and technical framework needed to achieve this

By Marcos A. Orellana, Director, need to integrate development models with Human Rights and Environment Program, the underlying ecology. Further, the right Center for International Environmental Law to development provides the ethical vision needed to direct and sustain the economic he planet’s atmosphere is saturated transformation demanded by climate with greenhouse gases that are change. Tcausing dangerous interference with the global climate. There is simply no Climate change and human rights more space in the atmosphere to increase Our planet is becoming more dangerous emissions without further damaging the and less hospitable. For millions of people, climate system. This is a simple statement the impacts of climate change mean with profound implications for development damaged livelihoods, forced displacement, models based on fossil fuels. If emissions violent conflict, loss of statehood, hunger cannot continue to increase without causing and poverty. Given that climate change severe global environmental and social aggravates the vulnerability of groups harm, then by necessity development must already marginalised, facing discrimination follow a low- or non-carbon path. or living in poverty, a framework of Only a significant technological leap accountability is indispensable to addressing will enable our global society to address the crisis. the moral imperative to eliminate poverty The UN Declaration on the Right to on a development path that avoids further Development notes that the development environmental harm. Without doubt, process must respect all human rights and given their historical responsibility in fundamental freedoms and contribute to coupling fossil fuels and development, it the realisation of rights for all. Therefore, is industrialised countries that bear the emission reductions and adaptation primary responsibility to provide the measures cannot justify human rights the climate crisis are those who will suffer financial and other support needed to make violations. In addition, development is most from climate change. this technological leap possible. conceptualised as a participatory and The right to development further At the same time, the actions required accountable process that is guided by underscores the need for international to address climate change represent an respect for and promotion of rights. cooperation. Development considerations unparalleled opportunity to generate new The right to development also calls already play a central role in the design and levels of development. In this regard, the for particular attention to considerations implementation of the UN Framework right to development, recognised by the of equity and justice in the development Convention on Climate Change international community more than 25 process. Climate change poses an acute (UNFCCC). And yet negotiations have years ago, underscores the need for inclusive equity challenge, since developing countries yet to deliver meaningful results, raising societal dialogue, enabling participatory and are more vulnerable to climate change than concerns that the window of opportunity informed decision-making processes. The industrialised nations. In other words, those to avert catastrophic climate change may right to development also highlights the who have contributed the least to causing be closing.

CLIMATE 2020 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES 37

Also in this section

Securing future energy supplies 40

Protecting the most vulnerable 43

Empowering women 46

The development and climate agendas 49

Education as a force for change 54 © Kuni Takahashi/Getty Images) Takahashi/Getty © Kuni

Biological synergy The UN states that development must respect human rights. Above, locals scavenge coal from an Development in a climate-constrained open-cast mine in Jharkhand, India. NGOs estimate world also means that models that purport that coal mining has displaced millions in the country to replace fundamental biological tenets with those of industry are bound to fail. For return on investments and the needs of much of the 20th century and still today, industry. Against this thinking, however, the pervasive economic policies are premised reality of climate change imposes tangible on the oversimpliﬁed idea that more is limits to the unconstrained expansion of a good and we need more of everything. In carbon-based economy. other words, the expansion of the economy Let us consider, for example, the is equivalent to development and it has implications for the right to food of this no limits. In market economies, this idea ideology of development understood is mediated by ﬁnancial markets, rates of as unending expansion decoupled from

CLIMATE 2020 38 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES

biology. Government policies that promote conversion of farms into monocultures, driven by the single logic of increasing yields, compromise the accessibility, availability and sustainability of food and food production in a climate-constrained world. But there is an alternative agricultural development path that is not dependent on fossil fuels and other external inputs. The UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food has shown that agroecology, with its emphasis on diversity and the recycling of nutrients and energy, is an example of a development path that is integrated into the local environment and is respectful of biological tenets and cycles.

Making the technological leap The right to development also draws attention to the need for technology transfer in the necessary economic transformation. Climate discussions at the UNFCCC have often equated the right to development with the right to pollute. Invoking variants of this approach, Parwiz/Reuters © Parwiz developing countries have largely resisted any quantifiable limitations on emissions. A man carries a solar panel as he wades through flood a significant first step towards establishing waters in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. Technology This position, however, assumes that transfer will be key to climate-friendly development explicit human rights protections in the development necessarily rests on an evolving climate regime, such as safeguards energy policy based on fossil fuels. And in mitigation and adaptation mechanisms. since energy is the lifeblood of modern transformation of the economic patterns In a parallel path, the UN Human Rights economies, this myth is aggravating that have been set up since the dawn of Council has noted that climate change has the paralysis at the UNFCCC. But the industrialisation. This is where the right to a range of direct and indirect implications right to development is not a right to development acquires crucial significance for the full and effective enjoyment of pollute. Instead, the right to development because it provides the indispensable human rights. It is also debating whether highlights the need for a technological accountability framework and moral to establish a special rapporteur – an leap that can bypass the destructive compass that can guide the needed independent expert – on this issue. Such a environmental impacts of industrialisation. economic transformation. In this sense, the rapporteur could advance our understanding right to development expresses a common of the linkages between the right to Moral compass ethos, an articulating principle and a development and climate change. In our age of globalisation, where time is transcendent goal, which are essential for The right to development is central to compressed in electronic transactions to our global society to survive and foster in a effectively addressing the climate change create a culture of the instant, we need a climate-constrained planet. crisis because it enables development moral compass that can provide direction models that connect with and do not seek to for the necessary transformation of the The road forward replace the fundamental tenets of biology. economy. The right to development, and There is some scope for human rights and It underscores the need for a technological its emphasis on the indivisibility of human the right to development to contribute to leap in the global and local economies, rights in the process of development, the organic development of the climate particularly in the developing world. establishes the ethical vision necessary to change regime. In Cancún in 2010, And it provides the moral compass and effectively address climate change. UNFCCC Parties recognised that they accountability framework needed to guide Confronting climate change requires should, in all climate change-related the economic transformation required to nothing less than the fundamental actions, fully respect human rights. This is effectively address climate change.

CLIMATE 2020 SPONSORED FEATURE

Water at the core of sustainable development

The Intergovernmental Panel on Water, an initiative of the energy, industry, tourism and other economic and financial activities Q Government of Mexico presented by President Enrique Peña in a sustainable manner; and consolidating Mexico’s international Nieto at the 69th UN General Assembly in New York, USA, raises the engagement on water issues. idea of a space for developing new adaptation projects, which will Currently, Mexico chairs the Intergovernmental Council of enable countries to be better prepared for the impact of increasingly UNESCO’s International Hydrological Programme. The aim is to severe weather events. implement science and technology as a basis for public policies’ This proposal is consistent with the work undertaken for the Post- development, through an Intergovernmental Panel on Water. 2015 Agenda on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which also During the 15th Ibero-American Water Directors Conference, a considers, for the first time, the establishment of an objective solely statement was signed in solidarity with the initiative, in which water dedicated to water. acquires political relevance in the global arena. This initiative sets water Water is a cross-cutting element essential for development. It is security as a priority within the agenda of international organisations present in every human social and productive activity as well as in the and bodies in light of the Post-2015 discussion. surrounding environment; it is the core of sustainable development. Meanwhile, Mexico submitted at the Conference of the Parties The water dimension has not been adequately addressed at (COP-20) a proposal for the inclusion of the topic of water as a key international fora, particularly regarding climate change. Access to factor for adaptation – reducing vulnerability and building resilience. water resources is not only essential for peaceful coexistence, but also a key issue for developing nations. For more information visit: www.aneas.com.mx Mexico created a comprehensive and multisectoral ‘Special Programme’ under the National Water Plan (2013-2018), which is evaluated every two years during implementation. It is based on six goals to advance towards water security: strengthening integrated and sustainable water management; increasing water security against droughts and floods; improving access to drinking water, sewerage and sanitation services; increasing technical, scientific and technological capacities; securing water for agricultural irrigation, 40 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES

Secure and sustainable

Securing future energy supplies to meet the demands of growing economies is compatible with a sustainable approach to energy creation, but will require bold new thinking from policymakers

By Maria van der Hoeven, Executive Director, electricity. Eradicating the scourge of an economic downturn. However much International Energy Agency energy poverty is a moral imperative. But this may be good news – and it may be very there could well be harmful repercussions good news indeed – it should not be taken nergy security is fundamental to the for the climate if in the process of expanding as an excuse to delay further action. Rather, health of our economies. Predictable access to energy we pass along the same it should be taken as an early indication that Eand reliable access to affordable habits of wasteful energy consumption that the decoupling of energy use, economic energy, in whatever form, is critical to exist in some economies. growth and emissions is possible. ensuring industrial productivity, health and We must not be disheartened, however, wellbeing, and national security. As such, for the goal is not necessarily out of reach. Smart policy maintaining energy security requires that In fact, the means of meeting the goal are There is a role for smart policy that can a country, or a group of countries with well known, and many of the technologies, simultaneously encourage action on climate common interests, be vigilant and prepared policies and mechanisms needed to get while maintaining, and even increasing, for disruptions that are difficult to predict, there are available and well understood. energy security – key elements of the whether caused by political instability, These include not only renewable energy low-carbon energy transition. It starts with market volatility or natural disasters. but also increasing energy efficiency, simply using less energy. Policies such as Yet there is one threat to energy security investing in technology such as carbon carbon pricing, combined with the phasing that is almost entirely predictable: climate capture and storage and, fundamentally, out of fossil-fuel subsidies, can encourage change. The give-and-take relationship eliminating fossil-fuel subsidies and putting consumers to limit their demand. between climate change and the energy a price on carbon. The benefits of reduced demand can be sector is undeniable. The energy sector These are the pieces of the puzzle. What’s reinforced further through targeted increases contributes to around two-thirds of global missing is a systemic, holistic approach in energy efficiency. This strengthens CO2 emissions, while extreme weather that takes advantage of the relationships energy security by reducing demand, and events (and even gradual climatic shifts) are between climate, energy, economic growth carries with it multiple positive benefits already impacting the efficacy and efficiency and security. Too often, the discussion on for economies and societies in general, of energy infrastructure. climate is framed as a zero-sum game, with including lower emissions, greater industrial Despite such threats, the world is still arguments that suggest actions taken to productivity, improvements in health and not on track to meet the collective goal of reduce emissions are somehow destined to wellbeing, and additional disposable income. Critics have argued that increased energy efficiency can actually lead to greater Energy saved becomes money that can be channelled energy use, the so-called rebound effect. To a certain degree this may be the case. back into the economy, resulting in benefits for everyone However, analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that this effect is generally small and the result is limiting average global temperature rise harm economic growth or energy security. still a net decrease in energy use. At the to 2°C. In fact, if we continue along our This simply isn’t the case. same time, this argument ignores a more current path, with today’s policies or even In fact, there are strong indications that fundamental issue: energy efficiency those agreed for implementation, models global CO2 emissions from the energy measures result in cost savings as well suggest an increase that is more likely to be sector stalled in 2014, while the global as energy savings. When a low-income between 3°C and 6°C. economy expanded by three per cent. That family saves on heating bills, it has more Compounding this is the inescapable would make it the first time in 40 years that money to spend on other needs, such as reality that more than one billion people there was a halt or reduction in emissions education or health. This certainly isn’t worldwide currently lack access to of this greenhouse gas that was not tied to a bad thing. Likewise, when industries

CLIMATE 2020 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES 41 © Akintunde Akinleye/Reuters

become more efficient, they may become increase energy security. This is one of the The demand for energy can come at a high human and environmental cost: the aftermath of a pipeline more competitive and increase production. main drivers behind plans by the EU to explosion near Lagos, Nigeria, caused by a failed Energy saved becomes money that can be form an Energy Union. By building and attempt to siphon fuel from the pipeline channelled back into the economy, resulting strengthening a competitive internal gas in benefits for everyone. market, while encouraging investment in The end goal is to move towards low- renewable energy at the same time, the Eventually, transition fuels must give carbon sources of energy. In the immediate region seeks to increase its ability to shield way to greater deployment of even lower- future, natural gas can play the part of itself from political instability along its carbon energy sources, including nuclear a transition fuel that reduces emissions borders and take concrete steps to meet its power and renewable energy. Though while offering diversification options that stated emissions-reduction targets. many countries and regions have made

CLIMATE 2020 42 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES © Reuters dramatic and impressive progress on this is what is needed to secure investment To date, hydro schemes have provided the greatest contribution to renewable energy capacity. Above, transition – in large part due to hydro, solar for a stable and sustainable low-carbon engineers and workers look at the first generator photovoltaics and wind power – low-carbon energy system – a precondition for meeting during construction of China’s Three Gorges Dam energy sources still make up less than one collective climate goals. quarter of total power generation, according As the countries of the world gather to the IEA’s Medium-Term Renewable Energy in Paris for COP21 later this year, there States. Despite announcements, the world Market Report 2014. is an opportunity to not focus simply has yet to see a formal plan from many major Despite calls for renewables to take on on emissions reductions, but to have an emitters, including Brazil, China and India. a greater share of the energy mix, market expanded discussion on how the energy Though facing very different challenges, distortions, partly in the form of fossil-fuel transition intersects with climate change. be they environmental, economic, political subsidies, continue to stack the odds against This encompasses a vast variety of issues, or social, all of these countries share the them. Removing such distortions, combined ranging from supply disruptions due to goal of maintaining and strengthening with supportive policies and a price on extreme weather events to the innovation energy security. carbon, would allow renewables, and in unleashed from smart, targeted investment in The intersection of these aspirations, some cases innovative technologies such sustainable and efficient technologies – all of challenges, threats and opportunities is the as carbon capture and storage, to compete. which have implications for energy security. climate energy nexus. This is where we Indeed, the most important factor for low- For now, the outlook for these will find realistic solutions that recognise carbon energy is not price, but rather the negotiations remains unclear. Only a handful the world’s insatiable thirst for energy and stability and predictability of the policy and of formal emission-reduction plans have economic growth, while acknowledging the market frameworks necessary to encourage been submitted to the UN, including by the fundamental impact of the energy system on the generation of necessary capital. This EU, Gabon, Mexico, Russia and the United our world’s climate.

CLIMATE 2020 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES 43

Protecting the most vulnerable

Vulnerable communities are the most exposed to the effects of climate change. How can they be empowered to overcome the challenges posed and what more can the wider international community do to help? © IFRC/PRCS/Olivier Matthys © IFRC/PRCS/Olivier

By Jagan Chapagain, Director, International unique perspectives on the humanitarian first given formal recognition at the 27th Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent consequences of changing weather patterns International Conference of the Red Cross Societies, Asia Pacific and new and more intense climate-related and Red Crescent in 1999, and our plan disasters. The need for humanitarian action of action for 2000–03. Soon after, in 2002, very day, the International Federation is beyond doubt. Building on our global the Netherlands Red Cross, working with of Red Cross and Red Crescent reach and our knowledge of the communities the IFRC, established the Red Cross/Red ESocieties (IFRC) is confronting the in which we work, the IFRC has been Crescent Climate Centre, which provides impacts of climate change through its work translating global climate change science into expert technical guidance on climate-related with vulnerable communities around the action on the ground, helping communities world. Our membership of 189 national adapt to the impacts of climate change. A family collect water from a pump in a makeshift Red Cross and Red Crescent societies and The interaction between climate change camp in Pakistan’s southern Sindh province during their 17 million volunteers provide us with adaptation and humanitarian action was severe monsoon floods

CLIMATE 2020 44 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES

policy and programmatic issues. In 2007, at the 30th International Conference, our societies, together with governments, adopted a resolution that recognised the increased burden on vulnerable communities arising from the increase in disasters and the scarcity of resources induced by climate change. For these communities, climate-related effects were perpetuating poverty, triggering migration, increasing health risks and aggravating the risk of violence and conflict. The resolution resolved to address the humanitarian impacts of climate change by: 1. Working with partners and raising awareness of the serious humanitarian concerns linked to climate change, including their causes. 2. Decreasing the vulnerability of communities and providing humanitarian assistance to the most vulnerable people, in particular those in affected developing countries. 3. Improving individual and collective capacity to respond swiftly to humanitarian challenges. 4. Ensuring that environmental degradation and adaptation to climate change are integrated in disaster risk reduction and disaster management policies and plans. 5. Mobilising the necessary human and financial resources to implement them, © Fleur Monasso/Climate Centre Monasso/Climate © Fleur giving priority to actions for the most vulnerable people. Members of a community in Ethiopia attend a Partners for collective efforts and community for Resilience programme, designed to implement 6. Supporting and complementing elements ‘climate-smart’ measures to reduce disaster risk, such as involvement to address climate change. of the UN Framework Convention on reforestation, irrigation, and soil and water conservation At the international level, we have initiated Climate Change (UNFCCC). partnerships that translate into action on the ground to enhance local-level resilience to In 2010, the IFRC committed to address around the world in active steps towards changes in risks or environment. The Zurich both the root causes and consequences of strengthening their resilience by the year Flood Resilience Alliance is an innovative climate change. Our Strategy 2020 calls for 2025. This was the IFRC’s voluntary partnership between Zurich Insurance, a contribution to climate change adaptation commitment toward the post-2015 Wharton Business School, the International through scaling-up disaster risk-reduction framework for disaster risk reduction and Institute of Applied System Analysis, measures, and to climate change mitigation Sustainable Development Goals. IFRC and Practical Action. It aims to through advocacy and social mobilisation. enhance community flood resilience by Most recently, at the Third UN World International efforts finding innovative ways to increase the Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction The impacts of climate change are without impact of disaster risk reduction efforts at in March 2015, the IFRC launched an borders and no single government or community, national and global levels. In ambitious global initiative to scale-up organisation can address them alone. Indonesia, Nepal, Mexico and Peru, the community and civic action on resilience. In addition to our advocacy work on programme uses insurance expertise to Called the ‘One Billion Coalition for mitigation and adaptation actions at global, enhance resilience to flooding while looking Resilience’, the initiative aims to engage national and sub-national levels, we engage at the role of financing for communities that at least one person in every household with international partners to advocate need it the most.

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Using creative, simple communication livelihoods, improve food security, reduce that governments take the following actions: methods, Red Cross and Red Crescent disaster risk and combat desertification. national societies have been targeting Viet Nam Red Cross has been planting O Ensure effective cross-disciplinary vulnerable communities to raise their and protecting mangrove forests in the collaboration (i.e. finance, development, awareness about the uncertainties and country since the 1990s, understanding the environment, interior ministries) – increasing risks induced by global warming. interconnected economic, environmental governments can develop a national Better understanding of climate and and social benefits. Mangrove afforestation plan in a holistic way and then consider environmental change has motivated people has been an efficient and effective way stakeholders and allocate budget to change their behaviour and proactively for disaster mitigation, protecting coastal efficiently. prepare for the effects of a changing climate. inhabitants from typhoons and storms, and O Engage with local actors and strengthen There are many inspiring and innovative enhancing livelihoods as well as mitigating local-level capacity to enable integration examples from our global membership. climate change. of climate change concerns into disaster Using the interactive medium of popular For decades, many national societies risk reduction and vulnerability reduction theatre and youth volunteers, the have been engaged in various forms work – governments should prioritise Bangladesh Red Crescent Society built a of community-based projects to build vulnerability and disaster risk reduction stage on a truck that visits districts across resilience through disaster preparedness, in their adaptation and development the country prone to cyclones, floods and disaster risk reduction or health projects. budgets. drought. The roadshow communicates Over the past five to ten years, such O Ensure that relevant climate information messages on climate change adaptation to projects have increasingly sought to tackle is available to inform decisions, especially thousands along its route. risks related to shifting weather patterns, by the most vulnerable communities at including changing seasonality, more the local level, implementing the vision Disaster management variability and new extreme events. expressed in the Global Framework for The humanitarian system will have greater Climate Services. demands placed upon it due to climate O Prioritise, with development agencies, change. The IFRC is taking steps to The impacts of climate mitigation activities such as tree improve its preparedness and response to planting and agro-forestry programmes disasters, including enhanced use of weather change are without borders that help not only to mitigate climate and climate information for proactive and no single government change impacts, but also enhance local response preparedness. The ‘early warning livelihoods, improve food security, – early action’ approach has been widely can address them alone reduce disaster risk and combat adopted, so standard contingency planning desertification – these actions will also processes have increasingly been adjusted to support and contribute to socio-economic prepare for more extreme events. National societies have implemented development goals. The Finnish-Pacific Project (FINPAC) climate change action in at least 102 O Scale-up implementation of UNFCCC is funded by the Finnish Government and countries with a special focus on the most Article 6 obligations on education, administered by the Secretariat for the vulnerable communities in all types of training and public awareness of Pacific Regional Environment Programme settings, including small island states, climate change, as well as on disaster (SPREP). IFRC and SPREP are urban areas, arid and semi-arid lands, risk reduction, to build the capacities collaborating to implement the community- flood-prone zones and drought-prone of people and their communities and based component of the project, which regions. They play a unique auxiliary strengthen local-level governance. involves the creation of partnerships role in support of governments and are O Increase investment in youth-led and between national meteorological services able to address the local aspects of climate youth-targeted climate change education and Red Cross national societies in ten change in a customised manner, working activities and skills training, including Pacific nations. They are working with local on the ground through established non-formal education, and involve communities and villages to develop early volunteer networks. and engage young people at all levels warning systems and improve dialogue of decision-making related to climate between disaster managers. IFRC recommendations change. More attention is needed for solutions that Despite all these successes, much more O Strengthen inclusive and participatory harness synergies between climate change needs to be done. For the implementation local governance and action for disaster adaptation and climate change mitigation. of climate change actions in the post-2015 risk reduction and climate change For example, activities such as tree planting era, linking with the Sendai framework, adaptation, and improve local and and agro-forestry programmes help mitigate COP21 outcomes and Sustainable community preparedness and response climate change and also enhance local Development Goals, the IFRC recommends capacities.

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Empowering women

Climate change impacts women more than men, yet the issues women face and their potential contribution to community response often go ignored. The new climate agreement must redress the balance and place gender equality, women’s empowerment and human rights at its core © Rizwan Tabassum/AFP/Getty Images Tabassum/AFP/Getty © Rizwan

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By Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, Droughts, extreme weather events, sea- losses experienced by women are invisible. UN Under-Secretary-General and level rise, ocean acidification and flooding hit The economic impact recorded relates to Executive Director, UN Women women and girls harder than men and boys. damages to productive resources and losses Yet gender stereotypes negatively define and in the formal employment sector, both omen have an enormous limit women’s and girls’ responses to natural of which are predominantly owned and capacity for transformational disasters. Estimates by Oxfam suggest that controlled by men. Wleadership. Many women and around three times as many women as men Women’s activities in the informal sector, girls already play key – but unsung – roles in perished in the Asian tsunamis. Typhoon their participation in subsistence fishing the protection and management of natural Haiyan, which displaced four million and farming, and the greater burden of resources and are at the forefront of actions people in the central island regions of the care-giving placed upon women after aimed at reducing human contributions to Philippines, resulted in a death toll of 6,300. disasters are most often not captured in global warming. 64 per cent of those who died were women. formal accounting, resulting in substantial However, their experience, and their Although they could be active responders under-valuation. This reinforces the overall potential to increase resilience against and rescuers if included in early warning underestimation of women’s contribution shocks from climate change, remains largely systems, without inclusion women become and perpetuates stereotyping. untapped. This is particularly important vulnerable and limited in agency. In fact, in many parts of the world, in planning the role of women and in women are leading climate action. Women integrating a gender perspective in disaster Increasing participation heads of state and governments, CEOs, risk reduction, climate action and the post- While traditional conceptions of women heads of international organisations, 2015 development agenda. as weak or incapable limit their mobility, grassroots and community activists, young Demand for food is growing while voice and space to take leadership or women and household managers are all land and water resources are becoming developmental roles, the actual needs of making strides on climate issues, inspiring ever more scarce and degraded. Climate women and girls are not always considered action and benefiting entire communities. change will make these challenges yet more or met. For example, the UN Population For example, a study of women’s difficult. Now, more than ever, when UN Fund estimates that following Cyclone Pam participation in forest management in Member States are expected to adopt a new in March 2015 there were roughly 56,000 India found that their intervention brought climate agreement at the Conference of women and girls of childbearing age in a corresponding fall in illicit grazing the Parties in Paris (COP21) in December the island nation of Vanuatu that required and felling, with significantly increased 2015, we need decisive global action that support such as hygiene supplies and reforestation and regeneration of forest recognises and optimises the role of women reproductive health services. An estimated goods, enhancing forest carbon stocks. and girls in a world where the climate is 5,000 women experienced sexual violence Women’s increased participation also changing and where lives and livelihoods are at stake. In March 2015 at the Third UN World A study of women’s participation in forest management Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in India found that their intervention brought a in Sendai, Japan, participants called for a strong human rights-based approach corresponding fall in illicit grazing and felling, with to climate action that takes into account significantly increased reforestation and regeneration not only women’s vulnerability to climate change but also their crucial capability as leaders in disaster preparedness and in the month following Typhoon Haiyan resulted in greater involvement in decision- management. We know that climate-related in the Philippines. These issues cannot be making processes, economic independence hazards magnify gender inequalities and solved until women’s contributions, as well and improved household income levels. widen the existing socio-economic and as men’s, are fully considered and until Rural Women Light up Africa, a political gaps between women and men. women can voice concerns about gender- partnership between UN Women and These are compounded by the intersecting based violence, and advocate for proper the Barefoot College of India, enables issues of poverty and a lack of control over infrastructure, resources and safe spaces women in villages in developing countries land and productive resources. during and after disasters. to learn to become solar engineers, and to In addition, the reality of women’s install and maintain solar equipment for roles in the economy and in sustaining their communities. Beyond introducing a

Drought-affected women wait for relief supplies communities is not captured in the current renewable and sustainable source of energy, at a state-run distribution centre in southern methods of accounting and reporting of the programme’s beneﬁts for women and Sindh province, Pakistan climate change impact. Consequently, the girls include increased community status,

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better health, education and improved Greener cooking empowers women livelihood options. Women have also taken the lead in Neha Juneja is the co-founder and CEO product, the Greenway Smart Stove, was integrating ideas of personal responsibility of Greenway Grameen Infra, a start-up developed by incorporating the views and into lifestyle and behavioural changes, that designs and markets efficient cooking ideas of women living in rural areas and expressed in part by consumer choices solutions to rural households. Her first functions as a modern replacement for that aim to benefit the environment. The traditional mud stoves. On average, one 1 Million Women initiative, a coalition of stove saves 5.6 trees, 304 working hours, women in Australia, was launched to tap and 1.5 tons of CO2 emissions per year. women’s role as decision-makers in the Rural women in particular benefit from use, production, distribution and disposal these stoves due to their responsibility of goods in their households. It has been for cooking in the household and time- chosen as a Women for Results winner consuming fuel collection. Efficient stoves of the UN Climate Change Secretariat limit indoor air pollution, reducing health Momentum for Change initiative. problems associated with smoke. Having a This year is pivotal for the international more efficient stove in the home also means community, with the expected adoption of more time for women and girls to go to the post-2015 development agenda and a school, carry out productive work or enjoy new universal climate agreement. It has also leisure activities. committed to step up the implementation of the Beijing Platform for Action for women. The new climate agreement, to be Protecting communities in Viet Nam adopted at COP21, will need to ensure the promotion of gender equality and women’s empowerment. Only then will we see gender-responsive climate action that addresses the pervasive stereotypes and social norms that reinforce traditional gender roles. We have to accelerate concrete actionable commitments and strengthen women’s agency to realise climate justice. This means dismantling discriminatory institutions and giving women access to decision-making roles in disaster areas and when formulating renewable energy strategies. Efforts must also be made to target the multiple, intersecting inequalities that can impact The rural An Dung commune in central government-mandated place in decision- the effectiveness of societal and political Viet Nam is prone to severe floods and making boards of the village’s Committees changes. The engagement of civil society landslides that damage crops and houses for Flood and Storm Control at all levels. is critical to advancing these goals and to and cut off the village’s one road out of Engaging women in leadership positions holding governments accountable for their town. Ranh Nguyen, a 35-year-old woman enabled Ranh and her neighbours to protect climate commitments. farmer, knew she had to do something. Now and rebuild their communities through Climate change is a human rights the head of the Viet Nam Women’s Union climate change education, training in first- issue. Gender equality and women’s group, Ranh and other women worked aid techniques such as cardiopulmonary empowerment are essential for an inclusive, with UN Women and the government resuscitation (CPR), and the sharing of sustainable and resilient world – a Planet of Luxembourg to strengthen the role experiences with other women. Before the 50-50. It is imperative that women’s voices of women in disaster risk reduction and next flood came, they had an evacuation are heard and their full participation, management. plan in place for people living in lowland engagement and leadership are ensured in As a result of extensive training and areas and near the river, and no further lives designing climate policies, strategies and advocacy, the Women’s Union now has a were lost. responses at various levels – from the village to the world stage.

CLIMATE 2020 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES 49 © Erik de Castro/Reuters

A shared vision

The Sustainable Development Goals and the new agreement on climate action are two separate intergovernmental processes, but they share a universal aspiration. Governments must approach both in an integrated and coherent manner

By Amina J. Mohammed, have multiple root causes. They demand climate change.” It is for this reason that we UN Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on universal, integrated and responsive are calling 2015 ‘the year of global action Post-2015 Development Planning solutions. for people and planet’. This is why 2015 offers such an In January, I had the opportunity of overty, inequalities, justice, conﬂicts, extraordinary opportunity to address participating in the World Economic Forum natural disasters, vulnerability, the root causes of the complex and Annual Meetings. When we were discussing Pdisplacement. The complex situation interlinked challenges humanity is facing: these challenges and the opportunities of in northern Nigeria; the severe droughts in ending poverty and reducing inequalities, 2015, a CEO asked me why the UN was São Paulo, in the Horn of Africa and in the sustainable development and tackling Sahel; the existential threat to many small climate change. In the words of the UN A priest conducts a commemoration ceremony at a mass grave for Typhoon Haiyan victims in Tacloban island developing states posed by sea-level Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon: “We are city, central Philippines. Investment in risk-reduction rise due to climate change. These problems the ﬁrst generation that can end poverty and measures and climate adaptation would greatly reduce and challenges are interconnected and the last that can avert the worst impacts of vulnerability to these type of extreme climate events

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promoting two different and competing agendas in a world of scarce resources: climate change and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Reﬂecting on this observation, we might indeed be © Nacho Doce/Reuters inadvertently giving the sense that the UN is promoting two parallel agendas, because there are two separate intergovernmental negotiating processes rather than the one agenda. We need to explain much better how and why sustainable development for poverty eradication and tackling climate

Eradicating poverty and curbing climate change are both enablers and outcomes of sustainable development change are one universal aspiration. There is no possible doubt. Both agendas have the same overarching objectives for people and planet, for present and for future generations: to eradicate poverty in all its dimensions, and achieve sustainable development. Indeed, eradicating poverty and curbing climate change are both enablers and outcomes of sustainable development. There are multiple wins between the post-2015 development agenda and climate action. With the appropriate means of implementation and with the fulfilment of the international commitments for development and climate financing in time – and this is an important prerequisite – there the whole SDG framework, the synergies Graffiti by Brazilian artist Paulo Ito highlights the severe water shortages in São Paulo, Brazil’s will be no trade-offs. It is a win-win game. between climate action and sustainable drought-hit megacity of 20 million inhabitants development go far beyond SDG 13. Multiple synergies There are major synergies on four levels But why are climate action and the at least. are called ‘SDGs’ or ‘climate action’. post-2015 development agenda two First and foremost, for people – and The consequences of Typhoon Haiyan in sides of the same coin? The proposed especially for the poor – policies and actions the Philippines in 2013 demonstrate the SDGs incorporate a specific goal on for adaptation, resilience, ensuring secure interlinkages of sustainable development climate change (SDG 13): “Take urgent and sustainable access to basic needs and and climate change, especially in light of the action to combat climate change and its natural resources (water, food, energy), the increasing intensity and impacts of natural impacts” (referring to the United Nations fulfilment of human rights, and increasing disasters. The death toll of more than Framework Convention on Climate economic opportunities for the future 10,000 people could have been lessened Change as the primary negotiating forum). to build sustainable and climate-resilient substantially with more robust and efficient Being so essential for the credibility of livelihoods are the same, whether they risk-reduction measures and climate-

CLIMATE 2020 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES 51

Second, all the key areas of climate action incentives and transforming regulatory are reflected in concrete SDGs and targets. frameworks for converting financial needs The New Climate Economy report, by into investment opportunities. the Global Commission on the Economy Last but not least, with the new climate and Climate, identifies three core areas agreement entering into force in 2020, for better growth and climate outcomes: major action on key sectors for mitigation landscapes and land use; sustainable cities; and adaptation on the aforementioned and sustainable energy. Looking at the SDGs will already be starting, as the proposed SDG framework, we see a close implementation of the SDGs begins five correspondence. years before full application of the climate The SDG of ending poverty in all its agreement. forms incorporates building the resilience of the poor and vulnerable. This is an A framework for implementation essential principle of climate justice. The An integrated development agenda demands SDG on food security, nutrition and an equally synergistic financial framework. sustainable agriculture includes a specific This is why governments should work target on sustainable and resilient food and to better align the financing frameworks agriculture systems. Ensuring universal that developed out of two major strands access to reliable and modern sources of of development debate – the Monterrey energy incorporates targets on renewable and the Rio processes – in the upcoming energy and efficiency. Making cities and Addis Conference in July 2015. We must do human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient our best to avoid sending out the message and sustainable is a core SDG. The SDGs that the climate and development agendas on inclusive and sustainable economic compete for financial resources. growth, on resilient and sustainable It is essential to ensure that financing infrastructure, on sustainable consumption sustainable development, technologies and and production, land degradation and land capacity development are harnessed and use, all incorporate in their design and – especially – made available to those in targets resilience and mitigation drivers. need, within a more enabling international Third, there are important synergies environment. International commitments from the financing perspective. For people, on official development assistance and and also for companies, local authorities or climate finance must be honoured. This is ministers of finance, many of the policies also an issue of climate justice. and projects at the local and country level While recognising the different nature of that will deliver on the SDGs are the same the development and climate agreements, as those delivering on climate change. we must approach the negotiations in an The SDGs can be seen as the investment integrated and coherent manner, including pipeline on core priority issues, which the discussions on financing. It is of also include the essential areas for tackling paramount importance that governments adaption funding, which involve the same climate change. engage in the negotiations with internal methods and motivations as those necessary As the New Climate Economy report coherence, a shared approach and with a to eradicate poverty and achieve sustainable underscores, the bulk of the investments common position. Ministers of finance, development. These preparatory actions, that are being accounted for as the ‘huge of planning, economy and development, therefore, must be integrative in nature to needs’ of the sustainable development and of the environment and climate change, of address climate action through sustainable climate agendas will be made in any case: social policies, of trade and of foreign affairs practices and policies. Moreover, many around $89 trillion will be invested in must come together with an integrated of the policy decisions and investments infrastructures between 2015 and 2030. The common vision. that impact directly on people’s lives, additional cost of making such investments We need both a transformational, non- on resilience and on climate change, are low carbon is only $266 billion a year. The legally binding agenda with SDGs, and a made at the sub-national level and led by challenge is to make these investments universal meaningful agreement for climate local authorities. This is why sustainable deliver sustainable development. The change. Sustainable development and rural-urban systems and cities and local post-2015 and climate agreements provide poverty eradication will not be possible in authorities have such a key role to play. a unique occasion for setting up the right the absence of either of the two.

CLIMATE 2020 SPONSORED FEATURE Reducing climate change impact through inclusive partnership

“We know that if we don’t confront climate change, Qthere will be no hope of preventing future increase of natural disasters and boosting global shared prosperity,” said Jim Yong Kim, the World Bank Group president, speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations on 8 December 2014. “Furthermore, the longer we delay in tackling climate change, the higher the cost will be to do the right thing for our planet and for our children.” By Young-mok Kim Climate change is considered to be a fundamental threat President, KOICA to development in the next 50 years by leading development organisations such as the World Bank Group, World Economic Forum (WEF) and United Nations. In order to limit global warming to 2ºC – the target set by the international Green Growth Strategy Implementation workshop in Viet Nam, community in 2009 – the net increase of greenhouse gas ranked as the second most vulnerable country to climate change emissions must fall to zero by 2100. Developing countries, particularly in tropical regions, currently experience severe weather and climate disasters every other year and will be enormously affected by climate change in the future. These countries are made vulnerable through a lack of adequate financial and social infrastructure. We have witnessed severe damage and human tragedies inflicted around the world. With concerted effort to reach a worldwide consensus on climate change, the world could yet carve out a balanced This photovoltaic power station on Santa Cruz Island in the agreement on how to distribute burdens. Many countries, Galapagos, Ecuador, makes this unique island, noted for its flora both advanced and developing, have moved toward emission and fauna, carbon-free for its energy requirements reduction and green growth. Private-sector corporates, the science and technology community, NGOs and even banks have made significant progress over the past two decades investment, which includes leading private financial toward clean and efficient energy solutions. institutions, in order to maximise financial and technical resources. Myself and KOICA support these innovative Challenges and rising hopes initiatives and would like to play a part. Yet investment in green energy – both financial and social – is far from sufficient. Furthermore, investment in infrastructure KOICA and climate change to prevent and mitigate disaster is too little to meet demand, KOICA is a small-sized, learning organisation compared to particularly in developing countries. many other leading institutions. However, KOICA has been Fortunately, against this background the world implementing a diversity of projects across continents, community has been embracing many viable initiatives. supporting education and capacity building in green and Sensible governments have taken responsible measures to renewable energy and helping to develop a national plan for introduce laws to regulate emissions on their industry, setting green growth. Sharing technology and know-how is part of targets of emission reduction bilaterally or regionally. Leading the cooperation. countries in this sector have pledged substantial funds to Most importantly, KOICA has introduced projects such support the Green Climate Fund (GCF). as constructing renewable (solar, hydro and others) energy Intellectuals like Professor Jeffrey Sachs have called for stations, upgrading power generation and transmission disinvestment in the fossil-fuel industry to discourage high- systems, forestation against desertification and development carbon industry. A number of economist and financiers have and distribution of water resources, to developing countries. introduced the idea of activating “green bonds” in a way to Helping recipient countries provide themselves with disaster boost investment in low-carbon industry. early warning systems and meterological analysis systems is We should also note that initiatives among OECD-DAC, another part of technological assistance. WEF and a number of official development assistance (ODA) In July 2008, Korea launched the ‘East Asia Climate organisations have created a network of global infrastructure Partnership’ (EACP) at the G8 Summit in Tokyo, Korea’s first SPONSORED FEATURE

RAIN SENSOR WEATHER SENSOR

Rain gauge Air temperature Wind direction sensor sensor

Humidity sensor Wind speed WATER LEVEL sensor SENSOR Atmosphere Water level pressure sensor Precipitation gauge sensor

AFFILIATED ORGANISATIONS

RTU Data Power logger supply

Internet FTP push KOICA assists with the development of an Early Warning and Response System (EWRS) for disaster mitigation in the Philippines VHF GSM Real-time provision .$Ť,# 241#"Ť" 3

MEASURED DATA ACQUISITION SYSTEM

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MEASURED DATA REMOTE CONTROL ACQUISITION MANAGEMENT ĖŤŤ.-31.+ŤėŤ2(%- +Ť31 -2,(22(.- VHF ĖŤŤ43., 3(!Ť! ++ŤĭŤ -4 +Ť! ++ network ĖŤŤ # 241#"Ť" 3 Ť$.1, 3Ť!'#!* OPERATING STATUS ĖŤŤ # 241#"Ť" 3 Ť04 +(38Ť!'#!* MONITORING This project in Azerbaijan helps address the problem of water GSM ĖŤŤŤ1.5("#Ť3.Ť ǭ+( 3#"Ť ĖŤŤ 3 Ť !04(2(3(.-Ť23 342 shortage, caused by desertification. More than 50,000 residents organisations ĖŤ04(/,#-3Ť./#1 3(.-Ť23 342 are benefiting per year climate change initiative, which balanced support community. The target is global and the strategy must reflect for the climate and the economy. Initially US$200 million the scale of the task. was earmarked for developing countries in East and central KOICA plans to play a bridging role between recipient Asia and beyond in tackling low-carbon industrialisation governments and potential investors. The fundamentals are: and development. Thanks to this initiative, KOICA has financial restructuring and risk mitigation; overall capacity implemented a number of landmark projects helping policy; institutional, operational and management know-how; tens of thousands of people with water, cleaner air and and allocation of budget and human resources. However, better sanitation. credible feasibility studies and master planning are also Another important component of our approach is prerequisites in making projects bankable and sustainable. to help those countries with infrastructure projects, by KOICA can act as a catalyst. In that role we are working providing and working with them on financing and realising closely with GCF, the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) feasibility studies and master planning of large-scale and other financial institutions and consultancies to bring projects. projects fighting climate change on line which may have been thought impossible in the past. Looking ahead It is time for us to reinvigorate our will and confidence Prosperity is not diametrically opposed to climate change in coping with challenges of climate change through a reduction. Investment patterns must be shifted now in partnership that is as inclusive as possible. order to support rising living standards and a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. By 2030, it is estimated that the loss of economic growth from not investing in low-carbon infrastructure would be equivalent to a pause in economic growth of one year. Nevertheless, that investment must be Young-mok Kim well coordinated and achieved by and throughout the global President, KOICA 54 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES

The power of education

Achieving a new global mindset on climate change and sustainability starts with education. How can the international community collaborate in climate education to bring about behavioural change? © USAID/Cambodia HARVEST © USAID/Cambodia

By Mahesh Pradhan, Chief, and not just about raising awareness about the Students in Cambodia prepare to plant moringa and Mariam Osman, Environmental Education papaya seedlings at their school’s vegetable garden consequences of consumption, it also has as part of a Cambodia HARVEST/USAID initiative Specialist, Environmental Education and the power to promote changes in attitudes to teach about nutrition, agronomy and climate Training Unit, UN Environment Programme and, crucially, behaviour. Climate education is not a new two conferences took major strides in umankind will only provide phenomenon and a framework has been establishing and deﬁning the discipline. a sufﬁcient response to avert constructed over several decades that will First, the International Workshop on H catastrophic climate change if assist the global community in acting in Environmental Education held in Belgrade it undergoes a complete transformation concert. Its starting point can be traced in October 1975 resulted in what became in behaviour and abandons the norms to the 1972 Stockholm conference, which known as The Belgrade Charter. This of the last two centuries. In turn, this set the stage for greater awareness of built on the framework of Stockholm and transformation will only be effected through the need to advance education about the described the goals, objectives, audiences education. Climate change education is environment internationally. Subsequently, and guiding principles of environmental

CLIMATE 2020 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES 55

education and proposed what has become its to the Decade. The programme intends to sourcebooks on reducing emissions from most widely accepted definition: generate action in five priority action areas: deforestation and forest degradation, “Environmental education is a process O advancing policy; climate change adaptation and helping aimed at developing a world population O transforming learning and training universities make campuses more green and that is aware of and concerned about environments (‘whole-school sustainable. the total environment and its associated approaches’); problems, and which has the knowledge, O building capacity of educators and Changing behaviour attitudes, motivations, commitments, and trainers; Education and awareness-raising skills to work individually and collectively O empowering and mobilising youth; activities not only deliver knowledge and toward solutions of current problems and O accelerating sustainable solutions at local understanding but also enable learners the prevention of new ones.” level. to act on the information to bring about Second, the Intergovernmental change. To achieve long-term behavioural Conference on Environmental Education The UN Framework Convention on change, climate change education should: held in Tbilisi in October 1977 led to the Climate Change (Article 6) and the Kyoto O begin in the early stages of pre-school creation of what is now known as The Protocol (Article 10) both encourage learning and proceed through primary, Tbilisi Declaration. In many quarters this governments to educate, empower and secondary and tertiary; remains the definitive statement on what engage all stakeholders and major groups O be a core part of lower and higher environmental education is and ought to be. on climate change policies. In 2012, the UN education curricula; The UN has taken up various initiatives Alliance On Climate Change Education O empower communities with the that embrace climate change education. was launched with a view to promoting knowledge, skills and self-confidence to In June 1992, the UN Conference on meaningful, result-oriented and effective participate in efforts to address climate Environment and Development held international cooperation in support of change; in Rio de Janeiro led to the adoption of action on climate change education, training, O make use of the available materials and Agenda 21, a non-binding action plan public awareness, public participation and resources to scale up climate change on sustainable development. This paved access to climate change information. mitigation efforts. the way for environmental education to The Global Universities Partnership on tackle the numerous issues and concerns Environment and Sustainability (GUPES) Climate change is real and educating included in Agenda 21, for example is another UN initiative promoting climate people from an early age about how our through meetings of the Commission on change education. Launched in June 2012 actions influence the environment is a Sustainable Development, established in at Tongji University in Shanghai, GUPES vital element in promoting responsible December 1992. is an interactive network with the aim of behaviour. This can be scaled up by In December 2002, the UN General promoting the integration of environment encouraging innovative teaching approaches to integrate climate change education in schools, to ensure it becomes a sustainable Climate change is real and educating people from an early and holistic part of education sector age about how our actions influence the environment is a processes and systems. This also means it should be part and parcel of wider vital element in promoting responsible behaviour education policies and legislation, plans and budgets, curricula and examinations, teacher education, school infrastructure and Assembly, through its Resolution 57/254, and sustainability concerns into teaching, facilities, learning environments and school declared a Decade of Education for research, community engagement and governance and management. Sustainable Development (2005–14). The management of universities. It also seeks Human beings are by their nature decade was geared towards promoting and to enhance student engagement and resistent to change. While education alone improving quality education, reorienting participation in sustainability activities both is unlikely to be sufficient to bring about educational programmes, building public within and beyond universities. pro-environmental behaviour, it has the understanding and awareness and providing At present, over 500 universities are potential to put in place the necessary practical training. affiliated with GUPES, from Africa, Asia foundations for delivering behaviour The end of the decade was marked and the Pacific, Europe, Latin America and change. It is therefore important for each in Nagoya in November 2014 during the Caribbean, North America and West and every individual to motivate each other the Word Conference on Education for Asia. GUPES and its partners have stepped in changing underlying actions and activities Sustainable Development that launched a up their efforts in promoting climate change that are potentially damaging to the planet Global Action Programme as the follow-up education through, for example, developing we all share.

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The domino effect

In our increasingly globalised world, no nation is exempt from the impacts of climate change. Small-island and least-developed states may bear the brunt, but developed and emerging economies will also be affected. We must all seize the opportunities that 2015 presents

By Achim Steiner, Executive Director, But in our increasingly globalised world, UN Environment Programme no nation should consider itself exempt. Developed and emerging states may be 015 is a pivotal year, as two critically better placed to absorb climate change important processes are set to dictate impacts, but their economies will experience 2the future development trajectory of the domino effect of risk, as natural and our planet. The post-2015 agenda will be social systems are closely linked. And the finalised in September and will highlight the exposure of people and assets to risks is imperatives of integration and universality increasing worldwide. For example, in to the successful realisation of the addition to the loss of life, the floods in Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Thailand in 2011 resulted in the disruption And a universal climate change agreement is in supply of tech components, interrupting set to be reached in Paris in December. automobile manufacturing and creating a The new climate change agreement global shortage in computer hard disks. The will be far more than an appendage to the estimated economic losses: $46 billion. SDGs. A weak agreement, and more intense Interconnected markets and movements climate change, would create rough seas of goods and people render environmental for sustainable development. A strong one challenges and natural resources disputes would put wind in its sails. borderless. Sea-level rise, drought, floods, Already, many nations are suffering more crop failure, tsunamis, hurricanes – Mother discernibly from the impacts of climate Nature does not discriminate according change – including drought, flooding, to development level, size or political disasters, food insecurity and rising sea influence. Climate change is thus also a levels. Take the world’s 52 small island global socio-economic and geo-political developing states (SIDS). Almost one in issue that will, in due course, affect every every 100 of us is from one of them. That’s person on this planet to varying degrees. one in every 100 people who may be faced with losing their home and livelihood due to Turning point sea-level rise and coastal erosion. And so, we rightly look ahead to Paris billions of dollars. There is much at stake as It is not only the SIDS that are facing as a potential turning point in human the world enters into an intense few months challenges. According to UNEP’s Keeping development. Without a robust and realistic of climate change negotiations. Track of Adaptation Actions in Africa (KTAA) agreement that can be adequately financed We must aim for a framework for cutting report, the projected two billion residents through public and private capital, many greenhouse gas emissions to ensure that of Africa in 2050 will still find themselves current and future development gains global temperature rise this century is kept significantly dependent on agriculture for will be eroded as the escalating impacts of below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. their livelihoods: livelihoods that could be climate change become reality. However, even if we limit global temperature damaged by a predicted crop yield reduction These are gains that have been hard won rise, climate change is here to stay, and of up to 20 per cent due to the impacts of over the last two decades. If these gains are with it an intimidating price tag. Previous climate change. lost, the cost could likely be calculated in estimates suggested that $70-100 billion

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Also in this section

Asia: climate change battleground 59

Africa’s climate challenge 62

Securing Africa’s drinking water 66

Managing risks, preventing disasters 68

The role of the oceans 72

Kiribati: nation under threat 76

Managing climate- driven migration 77

Climate-related conﬂict prevention 82

© UNICEF/Crumb Food security 84 would be needed annually by 2050 even if the The aftermath of tropical Cyclone Pam, which ripped through Vanuatu in March 2015. Low-lying Vanuatu Risks to health 86 temperature limit is met. But UNEP’s latest is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels adaptation report has found that costs are likely to be at least two or three times greater. These costs will be borne by everybody, development investments to fund adaptation but developing countries, least developed measures – damaging economic prosperity countries and SIDS will bear the brunt. and sustainable development. International ﬁnance, still far short of UNEP has already highlighted, through where it should be, can facilitate efforts to its KTAA and Adaptation Reports, how cope, but nations themselves will be forced investment in adaptation actions can to divert scarce resources and funds from provide low-cost solutions to climate change

CLIMATE 2020 58 IMPACT © The World Bank World © The challenges and stimulate local economies based adaptation and for countries to Contributing to the umunsi w’umuganda programme, a voluntary community work, Rwandan women create through more efficient use of natural capital, integrate climate change responses into terraces to prevent erosion and improve soil fertility job creation and increased household their development plans. incomes. The KTAA report estimates that Increasing technology and knowledge investments in climate change adaptation also plays a critical role in meeting can improve the livelihoods of 65 per cent the adaptation challenge. Many of the Supporting more vulnerable economies of Africa’s citizens through more efficient technologies for adaptation exist. However, provides an unprecedented opportunity to and innovative management of ecosystems, be part of game-changing socio-economic including agriculture and forests. solutions that can be applied in broader Equally, by integrating climate We should look at contexts and bigger economies. change adaptation strategies in national vulnerable nations as In short, we should look upon those development policies, governments can nations most vulnerable to climate change provide transitional pathways to green harbingers of a future we as microcosms of our larger society, and growth and protect and improve the all face if we do not act harbingers of a future we are all facing if we livelihoods of hundreds of millions. We are do not act together. seeing a growing understanding of specific With a full commitment to sustainable adaptation needs at national and local barriers to the uptake and transfer of these development and a new climate change levels, as the impacts of climate change are technologies have prevented their wider agreement, we could reduce poverty levels, factored into budgets. use. Governments should look at incentives, achieve sustainable growth, restore social, For example, India recently set up its regulations and stronger institutions environmental and economic capital, and own adaptation fund. At the first-ever to remove these barriers – while the put in motion the efficient and equitable UN Environment Assembly in 2014, a technologies themselves should be viewed as management of our planetary resources. resolution was passed calling on UNEP to useful beyond increased climate resilience, This is a window of opportunity that none continue supporting countries in ecosystem- and drivers of faster development. of us can afford to miss.

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Asia: climate change battleground

Asia and the Paciﬁc has much to gain from combating climate change, having endured some of the worst climate-related disasters of recent years. But with the region producing an ever-greater share of global carbon emissions, what can it do to protect its people – and the world – from the effects of climate change? © Soe Zeya Tun/Reuters © Soe Zeya

By Preety Bhandari, Head, Climate Change It is worth considering a number of Residents of Dala, near Yangon, Myanmar, collect Coordination and Disaster Risk Management drinking water from the only source available to attributes that make the region particularly them, after the other freshwater lakes dried up Unit, Asian Development Bank vulnerable to climate change. Of the 10 countries in the world with the largest number of people living in low-lying productive, densely populated land. sia and the Pacific is exceptionally coastal zones, eight are found in the region. The population of Asia and the Pacific vulnerable to climate risks yet is fast Bangladesh, home to a growing population is expected to expand by more than 30 per Abecoming the biggest contributor of over 36 million, is a particularly low-lying cent to over 5.4 billion in the next 35 years, to world greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. country with a coastal zone of more than putting pressure on space and all other This is the climate paradox of Asia, the 47,000 square kilometres. It will face more resources. The region is already home to region where the global fight against climate storm surges and a projected sea-level rise two-thirds of the world’s poor, a group that change will be won or lost. that will increasingly engulf large areas of is particularly at risk from climate change

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Recent signiﬁcant disasters in the Asia and Paciﬁc region (right)

Natural disasters serve as a wake-up call to risk-prone countries throughout Asia and the Paciﬁc to build and maintain resilience to such catastrophes 2,775 deaths

since they often live in the lowest-lying areas prone to sea-level rise or floods, and have few financial resources to fall back on in times of crisis. Agriculture is still the region’s main source of livelihoods, with more than 60 per cent of people dependent on it. They face declining harvests caused by rises in temperatures and unfavourable weather. Meanwhile, damage to marine habitats from 2008: PRC extreme weather, rising sea temperatures or increased ocean acidity could damage fisheries and fish catches. All these issues combined make food security a critical concern. Migration from rural and coastal areas to towns and cities is already occurring as a result of climate change, which has made it harder to make a living by farming and fishing. At the same time, climate- related disasters like floods and storms force entire communities to move. In 2010 alone, more than 30 million people were displaced by environmental disasters in the region, bringing with it severe human and economic costs. When Typhoon Haiyan slammed into the Philippines in 2013, over 7,000 people lost their lives and more than one million houses were damaged. The economic costs are estimated at more than $10 billion. Earlier this year, Cyclone Pam left a terrible path of destruction in Vanuatu, destroying 90 per cent of the country’s infrastructure. In all, between 2005 and 2014, developing Asia lost some 403,000 lives and suffered economic losses totalling $436 billion due to natural disasters. At the same time, the region’s share of GHG emissions has risen to almost 40 per cent of the global total. This is largely (www.emdat.be) International Disaster Database – The EM-DAT © ADB. Source:

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due to rapid economic growth in several Ecosystem and biodiversity conservation ADB also sources funds from the countries such as China, India, Indonesia, initiatives are also in progress to promote externally managed Climate Investment the Philippines and Viet Nam. These sustainable forestry and land use, including Funds, the Global Environment Facility and booming economies, along with increased one in the Greater Mekong sub-region the Green Climate Fund, which recently demand for energy from a growing and that covers Cambodia, Lao People’s accredited ADB to tap its initial $10.2 increasingly prosperous citizenry, are Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand billion in resources. expected to contribute to a doubling of and Viet Nam. But money alone is not enough. Asia regional energy demand by 2030. If current also needs regional-specific research trends are an indication, increased demand How will this be financed? and data. Countries can learn from each will be met by energy production from fossil The massive efforts at mitigation and other. Collaboration has resulted in the fuels, as these are cheaper than renewable adaptation will require billions of dollars in establishment of the Regional Climate sources and also plentiful in many countries financing. By 2030, the cost of mitigating Projections Consortium and Data Facility in the region. If this happens, Asia and the climate change for developing countries with experts from the scientific and Pacific will be responsible for almost half of is estimated at an average of $160 billion development communities providing the world’s carbon emissions by 2030. a year per country. And according to the an expanded range of regional climate UN Environment Programme (UNEP) projections. What is Asia doing? Adaptation Gap Report released in December Other partnerships include Adapt-Asia Many recent studies, such as the Better 2014, the annual costs for adaptation could and the Asia Pacific Adaptation Network, Growth, Better Climate report from the rise to between $70 billion and $100 billion which are playing key roles in preparing Global Commission on the Economy and by 2050. developing countries for climate change Climate, demonstrate clearly that it is The costs are too high for many countries through the facilitation of knowledge possible to address climate issues while still to shoulder on their own. As a result, they sharing, as well as access to finance. enjoying strong economic growth. are increasingly looking to the private ADB is also working with UNEP for Asian countries need to shift away from sector – with support from bilateral and its pilot Asia-Pacific Climate Technology fossil fuel production and consumption and other multilateral sources – to provide Finance Center, aimed at promoting low- consider incentives like feed-in tariffs to much of the financing for clean energy carbon technology transfer in the region. help develop renewable energy. Mandates generation and climate adaptation needs. and subsidies to increase energy efficiency Innovative financing approaches and market Action in Asia helps the world Despite the huge requirements, financial and otherwise, Asia is demonstrating that Asian countries need to shift away from fossil fuel it is willing to do its part. production and consumption and consider incentives to Going into the COP21 Paris negotiations, there are more reasons to help develop renewable energy. Mandates and subsidies be hopeful as developing countries like to increase energy efficiency should also be in place the Philippines lay out their commitment to GHG emissions reduction. Pacific countries have pledged to reduce fossil fuel should also be in place, as well as policies to instruments are needed to leverage finance dependence. Fiji has declared it will only use enhance urban resilience, given that many from both public and private sources. renewable energy by 2030. cities in the region are highly exposed to ADB, for one, aims to ensure climate Two of Asia’s biggest economies – India climate risks and natural hazards. change is integrated into at least 45 per cent and China – are also acting. India is in As part of that, Asian Development of its projects by 2016. Over each of the past a Joint Working Group on Combating Bank (ADB) is helping India develop four years, it has provided over $3 billion Climate Change with the US and is new solar power parks and wind energy for climate-related activities – around 23 per cooperating on many low-carbon initiatives, generation facilities in several states. cent of ADB’s total financing. including clean energy and the development Public–private-partnership initiatives are ADB is also mobilising climate finance, of smart cities. In tandem with the US, developing geothermal plants in Indonesia using market mechanisms and catalysing China has given its commitment to peak its and waste-to-energy power plants in private capital. Internally managed funds GHG emissions by 2030, targeting cuts of China. Meanwhile, Dhaka in Bangladesh include: the Clean Energy Financing about a quarter below 2005 levels by 2025. and Ha Noi in Viet Nam are developing Partnership Facility ($216 million); the Such actions and joint efforts show sustainable transport systems, such as bus Climate Change Fund ($59.5 million); that Asia is ready and willing to tackle and metro rail services to ferry residents Urban Climate Change Resilience Trust climate change. That is more than half the around the city. Fund ($141.5 million); and bilateral funds. battle won.

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Africa’s climate challenge

In the world’s poorest inhabited continent, climate change poses a potentially devastating threat. The speciﬁc climate issues facing Africa will demand focused solutions if the continent is to provide a prosperous future for its people © Siegfried Modola/Reuters

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By Balgis Osman-Elasha, IPCC report satisfy growing demands for food, energy and by the more frequent, intensified and author and Climate Change Expert, African housing, all of which are usually produced extended drought cycles in eastern Africa; Development Bank through more extraction of natural resources unprecedented floods in parts of western and more land-use conversions. The pressure and southern Africa; declining water levels ince historical times, Africa has felt on food production will be compounded by in Lake Chad; inundation and salinisation the detrimental effects of variations projected reductions of up to 22 per cent in of the fertile delta in Egypt; the shrinking Sin the Earth’s climate. There are a production of coarse grains in Africa in the ice caps in Kilimanjaro and the Kenya number of factors specific to the continent near future. Mountains – the list goes on. that act individually or collectively to The high potential for climate change increase its exposure to climate variability Chronic poverty and variability to negatively impact Africa’s and extremes, increase its disaster risk and Poverty is one of the major non-climate human livelihood, development and reduce its ability to cope with the adverse factors contributing to Africa’s vulnerability. economic growth has been emphasised in physical, human and socio-economic Increasing poverty rates and high the recent Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) consequences of climate change. dependence on natural resources limit of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Efforts to shed light on current or future livelihood options for African people and Change (IPCC), as well as by a number of climate change impacts on the continent force them to expand their agricultural other scientific papers and technical reports. should examine the connections between production into forests and woodland. This The projections suggest that Africa climate change and issues such as resource will ultimately result in loss of biodiversity, will face more climate challenges in the governance, population growth, poverty land degradation and desertification. In future, which vary across the sub-regions. and conflicts. This article examines both many cases people are left with no option Eastern Africa, for example, is projected climatic and some of these non-climatic but to migrate in search of alternative to get wetter, while northern and much of stresses, their resulting impacts and livelihoods or employment opportunities. southern Africa will get drier and hotter. proposed response measures. The current news reports about thousands The mean annual temperature rise across of migrants fleeing poverty in Africa to Africa, relative to that of the late 20th Inadequate infrastructure Europe is clear evidence of the huge and century, is likely to exceed 2°C by 2100, Much of Africa suffers from poor energy complex impacts of the problem on the with land temperatures over Africa rising systems, transport, and water and health continent’s human resources. faster than the global land average. Extreme services, all of which can constrain The links between poverty, conflicts weather events are projected to increase in efforts to adapt to climate change. For and migration are well established. There terms of frequency, intensity and duration. example, frequent droughts can cause are numerous articles about Africa’s brain The level and type of impacts resulting more damage to countries with poor drain and the emigration of young people from climate change will also vary between water management and storage capacities desperate to find a living in the ‘dreamlands’ the sub-regions depending on each region’s than those with efficient systems. Limited of Europe. Unless we address Africa’s level of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. energy infrastructure constrains Africa’s chronic poverty, many of its other problems High vulnerability is usually associated with development and increases its vulnerability. will likely remain unsolved. the presence of multiple socio-economic According to the International Energy constraints and development deficits typical Agency, sub-Saharan Africa energy Conflicts and political instability to many African countries, particularly the investment needs to increase to $3 trillion Conflicts in Africa are generally triggered least developed countries (LDCs). The by 2040, equivalent to $110 billion a year. by climatic factors and aggravated by survival and livelihoods of millions of people a number of other drivers, including in sub-Saharan Africa are threatened by land Population pressures population pressure, competition over degradation and resource-based conflict Africa’s population is growing at an annual resources, land degradation and failing that will be much aggravated by increasing rate of 2.4 per cent with wide variations governments. Resource-based conflicts pose climate variability and extreme events. The in population density between regions. serious threats to human security in Africa, numbers of people at risk of increased water Accelerating rates of population growth sparking mass migration, loss of safety nets stress in Africa is projected to be 75-250 coupled with imbalanced distribution will put and social disintegration. This is a typical million by the 2020s and 350-600 million by greater pressures on national governments to ongoing scenario in many of the continent‘s the 2050s. conflict-ridden regions, such as Darfur and Important ecosystems such as terrestrial,

Turkana by a fishing camp on the shores the Horn of Africa. fresh water and coastal are likely to be of Lake Turkana, near the Kenya-Ethiopia border. severely impacted by projected changes in Food scarcity, resulting from recurring droughts Climate-related vulnerability and impacts temperature and precipitation and will have and overfishing, has intensified their conflict with the Ethiopian indigenous Dhaasanac Africa is living the reality of climate change significant implications on human livelihoods on a daily basis. This is demonstrated and economic development. Low-lying

CLIMATE 2020 64 IMPACT © Andrew McConnell/Getty Images McConnell/Getty © Andrew islands and coastal and deltaic regions are at observed in many parts of Africa. In East A fisherman tends his nets by Lake Tanganyika, where the fish stocks have declined 30 per cent very high risk of flooding and sea-level rise. Africa, for example, more frequent fires on over the past 80 years, due to climate change The Sahel will continue to face the negative Mount Kilimanjaro, attributed to increasing impacts of climate variability and extremes, temperature, have resulted in a nine per including drought, heatwaves, dust storms cent reduction in montane forests, and an transmission of dangerous diseases. For and flash floods. A number of studies in the 83 per cent reduction in subalpine forests. example, fruit bats are thought to be the water-stressed North Africa region indicated Rain-fed agriculture is extremely vulnerable source of the ongoing outbreak of Ebola in that the rain-fed agriculture, which is highly to the slightest change in temperature and West Africa.1 dependent on winter rainfall, will be severely precipitation, yet is crucial to the African Other observed shifts in African impacted by the projected reduction in economy, providing more than 20 per cent ecosystems include the southwards progress the amount, distribution and frequency of of GDP and 70 per cent of employment of the Gum Arabic (Acacia Senegal) Belt precipitation in the region. opportunities. Coupled with increasing in Sudan and the polewards shift of some Parts of Africa, particularly the Sahel population, this encroachment of rain-fed South African bird species. Substantial region, will face a very high risk of heat stress agriculture into savannah has resulted in decreases in tree densities have been by the end of the century, to the extent that a 16 per cent reduction of forest cover in observed in the Western Sahel and the it may constrain people’s ability to practise sub-Saharan Africa. It has also impaired the dry region of North Africa during the last any agricultural activities in their farms. If free migration routes for wildlife such as few decades. Other changes include the this occurs, it will further impoverish African zebras and elephants, as well as interrupting shrinking number of fruit-bearing trees in small-scale farmers, breaking down national the movement of nomadic tribes, triggering the Sahel. economies and ultimately undermining tribal conflicts. The potential climate change impacts countries’ efforts to achieve poverty Faced with a food security crisis, rural in Africa may be complicated by the reduction and future prosperity. households in many parts of Africa have trans-boundary nature of water resources. started to rely more on wild fruits and Ninety per cent of all Africa’s surface Ecosystems and livelihood changes game animal, imposing additional pressures freshwater resources are located in river Ecosystem services are crucial for on already fragile ecosystems. Although basins and lakes that are shared between economies and livelihoods in Africa. game can bolster household food security two or more countries. The Nile Basin is Changes in species’ composition, as an affordable source of protein, in some of particular concern, given its geopolitical distributions and ranges have already been cases it has posed health problems through and socio-economic importance. Reduced

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flows in the Blue Nile have been reported to a broad spectrum of institutional, Development of an early-warning system during the last century and are attributed social, physical, financial, capacity and is critical to the timely preparedness and mainly to a mixture of climate change and infrastructure needs. They should also disaster risk management at different upstream water development for irrigation take into consideration the continent’s levels. It is particularly useful for planning and hydropower. The fish resources in high dependence on natural resources and and implementing effective adaptation the Great Rift Valley lakes of East Africa ecosystems. Emerging evidence from the measures for shared resources and trans- (lakes Malawi, Tanganyika and Victoria) IPCC AR5 reports identify ecosystem and boundary ecosystems such as river basins, are declining in terms of productivity and community-based measures as a potential open pastures and woodlands, coastal diversity due to rising average temperatures. future pathway for a more sustainable zones and protected areas. Both African A 30 per cent decline in Lake Tanganyika approach to adaptation. Compared to governments and development agencies fish stocks has been witnessed over the hard-engineered solutions, maintaining the have acknowledged the contribution of past 80 years as a result of climate change services of a healthy ecosystem is considered watershed management, including dams and variability. This may eventually force as a more cost-effective option. and water facilities, to environment and fishermen to look for alternative livelihoods All African LDCs have already infrastructure sustainability. such as farming, which could in turn prepared National Adaptation Programs increase competition for land and create of Action in which they recognised their Towards improving Africa’s resilience to tensions and conflicts. urgent adaptation needs that should be climate change Increased malaria transmission is addressed in the short term. Currently, all Insufficient finance is one of the main reported in the Kenyan highlands. This developing countries are in the process constraints impairing efforts to implement is due to warmer temperatures that create of creating National Adaptation Plans, climate change adaptation in Africa. The the optimum conditions for mosquitoes to which are meant to address medium- and Green Climate Fund was established to breed. In Mali, the projected temperature long-term adaptation needs. However, provide for future climate financing to increase, coupled with less precipitation, is implementation has always been a support developing countries in their efforts expected to enforce a shift by farmers from challenge, given limited available funding. to pursue adaptation and low-carbon- rain-fed millet and sorghum to semi-arid, In spite of the large number of climate resilient development. According to the predominantly livestock subsistence. Millions finance avenues created to support African Group of Negotiators, African of people are expected to face the tragedy of adaptation efforts, the amounts disbursed countries would like to see a fund that livelihood loss, hunger and famine. remain small compared with the total need, provides simplified and improved access Climate models project a similar scenario particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. to funding and adopts a country-driven for many other marginal agricultural lands in Africa. Pastoral farmers in the Horn of Africa, particularly on the Ethiopia–Kenya– Making the least contribution to global greenhouse Somalia border, are continuously witnessing gas emissions but suffering the highest levels of impacts loss of their livestock due to frequent droughts and expanding desertification. and vulnerability, Africa’s first priority is adaptation Tens of millions of people are reported to have been impacted during the last few decades, forced into mass migration out Several sustainable land management approach for channelling resources. It is also of drought-affected areas in search of new (SLM) approaches are practised in sub- important to mainstream climate change livelihoods elsewhere. This scenario is Saharan Africa in response to the ongoing adaptation into national development projected to continue into the future and land degradation and desertification. planning and to make sure that national may be aggravated by the ongoing conflicts Farmers in the Ethiopian highlands, for priorities such as poverty reduction and and volatile geo-political conditions that example, see investment in soil and water sustainable development are part of the dominate the region. conservation as the best adaptation option global negotiation agenda. in the face of declining rainfall. Others Regional and international cooperation The tools to adapt have identified livelihood diversification are crucial for supporting national Making the least contribution to global away from a heavy dependency on natural mainstreaming efforts, capacity building, greenhouse gas emissions but suffering the resources as another adaptation option. technology transfer and monitoring and highest levels of impacts and vulnerability, However, the adoption of SLM techniques evaluation of adaptation initiatives. Africa’s first priority is adaptation. Because is still confined to a small percentage of the multiplicity of stresses to which Africa of agricultural land, signifying the need 1 Gatherer, D. (2014). The 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa. Journal of General is exposed, any measures to address climate for more serious efforts to upscale SLM Virology, Vol. 95, August 2014, p.1619. doi: change impacts should be responsive practice into larger areas. 10.1099/vir.0.067199-0

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Securing Africa’s drinking water

Water scarcity is a daily fact of life for more than a third of Africans. With climate change threatening to further limit availability, the continent needs an urgent integrated solution if it is to safeguard the future of its communities and economies

By Karin Krchnak, Director, throughout economies, governments and managed, taking into account the available Freshwater Program, WWF the environment. As less water is available, groundwater, surface water, sources of farms lose productivity and crops, sending contamination and all users of water hen people think of South rural families to urban areas for work, within the basin – from families to farms to Africa, many things come to spelling an exponential increase in demand businesses to hydropower. If you don’t bring Wmind: Nelson Mandela, safaris for water in major cities. The hydropower in all these actors who are working and and wine, for instance. But when I think plants produce less electricity, prompting living within a basin, a tap installed today of South Africa, I think of one thing – one the destruction of forests to make charcoal might be running dry in five years, or be woman, to be exact. fuel. Fewer forests mean less space for carrying water that isn’t safe to drink. I met her almost a decade ago while wildlife, more carbon in the atmosphere and It is crucial to remember this as world visiting water access, sanitation and hygiene decreasing water quality due to sediment leaders finalise the Sustainable Development (WASH) projects in poor and rural African and soil erosion. Goals, a UN-led global framework that will communities. She was single and raising five guide development priorities for the next children, none of whom were in school. In Healthy communities 15 years. The goals will marshal the focus fact, as she welcomed me into her home, To successfully address this inter- of governments, philanthropy, development they were all doing something with water: connected web of issues, we must have agencies and international finance one was doing laundry by hand, another an interconnected solution. Sustainable institutions. Currently there is a goal drafted washing dishes, and a few carrying buckets. access to fresh water and sanitation leads that is dedicated to water and targets that I remember wondering what their futures would be without education, or if she had lost children due to water-related illnesses. On the African continent, more than 300 million live But as she smiled bravely and told me about her life, I just remember my heart breaking. in a water-scarce environment. Diseases caused by Despite being women of similar ages, our inadequate water supply and sanitation kill more people lives couldn’t have been more different. Of the estimated 800 million people who every year than all forms of violence, including war live on the African continent, more than 300 million live in a water-scarce environment. Diseases caused by inadequate water supply to healthier people and economic growth, include not only water access, sanitation and and sanitation kill more people every year which facilitate improved environmental hygiene, but also integrated water resources than all forms of violence, including war. management. In other words, healthy management, ecosystems and trans-boundary As the climate changes and development communities help preserve a healthy planet, cooperation on shared waters. degrades natural resources, the strains on and a healthy planet is the foundation for This is what we need. This kind of water and the implications of water scarcity healthy communities. integration is the best solution we have for will only intensify. In the past, WASH programmes have the 300 million Africans who live in a water- Even a slight decrease in water security been enacted in their own silos, separate scarce environment – including one strong threatens livelihoods and sends ripples from community development, wildlife and mum and her five children. When I met her, ecosystem management. This is one of the I committed myself to water security. Today, A woman collecting water in the Rwenzori primary reasons so many WASH projects I am excited to see governments ready to Mountains, Uganda. Climatic change has resulted have limited success. For long-term fixes, commit to the global goals that can help in a considerable drop in the water levels the entire watershed needs to be sustainably take us there.

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By Margareta Wahlström, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General Managing risks, for Disaster Risk Reduction

uman actions can lead to the preventing disasters creation of new disaster risks. HCombined with natural hazards, Reducing the risk of climate-related and other disasters and these risk factors ruin lives and livelihoods. But human actions can also lead to disaster better equipping communities to deal with them are key risk reduction, prevention or mitigation elements of the post-2015 development agenda when there is clear understanding of what needs to be done, for example, when © Navesh Chitrakar/Reuters © Navesh

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building a new school, hospital, factory, agenda, the Sendai Framework for Disaster the economic, physical, social, cultural and electricity plant or road. Risk Reduction 2015-2030. environmental assets of persons, businesses, There is growing confidence that The new framework builds on ten years communities and countries.” humankind, with the aid of science and of work with the Hyogo Framework for To achieve this outcome, it identifies four technology, can take charge of its own Action, as well as the knowledge and priorities for action: focusing on a better destiny and go beyond simply managing experience of major stakeholders from the understanding of risk, strengthened disaster disasters to managing the risk factors scientific and academic communities, civil risk governance, more investment, and that create them. This is nowhere better society, and the public and private sector. more effective disaster preparedness that expressed than in the outcome of the Third It will guide global action on disaster risk embeds the ‘build back better’ principle into UN World Conference for Disaster Risk reduction for the next 15 years. recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Reduction, which resulted in the first major There is no great mystery as to what is The seven global targets it outlines are: milestone on the post-2015 development driving human and financial losses from a substantial reduction in global disaster disasters. Over the last ten years, some mortality; a substantial reduction in 700,000 people have lost their lives, and numbers of affected people; a reduction the economic impact is now calculated to in economic losses in relation to global be around $250 billion per year. Evidence GDP; substantial reduction in damage to indicates that exposure of people and critical infrastructure and disruption of basic assets in all countries has increased faster services, including health and education than vulnerability has decreased, thus facilities; an increase in the number of generating a steady rise in disaster losses countries with national and local disaster with significant economic, social, health, risk-reduction strategies by 2020; enhanced cultural and environmental impacts in the international cooperation; and increased short, medium and long term, especially at access to multi-hazard early warning the local and community level. systems and disaster risk information The Sendai Framework calls for action and assessments. on the underlying drivers, including poor risk governance, poverty and inequality, Scientific approach climate change, unplanned urbanisation, The Sendai Framework also calls for more poor land management, ecosystem decline science-based methodologies and tools to be and unsustainable use of natural resources, as developed and distributed. Recording and disseminating disaster losses and relevant statistics, including disaggregated data, The Sendai Framework provides important support to governments opens a major new as they set their own quantitative targets for reductions in mortality, economic losses, chapter in sustainable damage to vital infrastructure and access to development early warnings. From a scientific point of view, the Sendai Framework includes some key areas that well as compounding factors such as a lack of are worth highlighting, particularly a new incentives for private disaster risk-reduction focus on health. This issue received scant investment and the threat of pandemics. It attention in the previous framework but is opens a major new chapter in sustainable now clearly at the heart of global efforts to development as, for the first time, it sets out build resilience, based on the last decades’ clear targets and priorities for action aimed at experience of the reality, and threat of, a: “substantial reduction of disaster risk and pandemics such as HIV/AIDS, malaria, TB, losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in Ebola, SARS and H1N1. Advances in science and technology have played a significant role in saving lives over Survivors sit with their belongings outside a the last ten years, especially in the area of damaged temple in Kathmandu after the first of two devastating earthquakes hit Nepal in April and May weather-related disasters, which account 2015. More than 8,000 were killed, twice that number for over 80 per cent of all disaster events. injured and almost 300,000 homes destroyed Innovations in satellite monitoring, real-time

CLIMATE 2020 70 IMPACT © UNICEF/Abramson weather forecasting, and ICT access and – which is responsible for more deaths that A boy outside his home in Santa Cruz department, Bolivia, amid extensive floods caused by heavy availability for disaster managers have played any other disaster type – in the Worldwide rains linked to La Niña climate effects an important role in improved performance Initiative for Safe Schools run by the UN of disaster management systems. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. Using smartphones and complementary Solutions may be less obvious with technologies, there are hopeful signs of regard to long-term weather patterns. As in terms of improved disaster risk modelling, progress in creating less costly systems rainfall intensifies and sea levels rise, the assessment, mapping, monitoring and multi- for providing early warning in earthquake scientific community clearly is an important hazard early warning systems, then an ‘all-of- zones for developing countries that lack the link between government and the public society’ approach is required. capacity to deploy the more sophisticated when it comes to making the evidence for As the UN Secretary-General has noted: systems used in countries like the United far-reaching decisions easily understood, “sustainability starts in Sendai”. It is clear States and Japan. especially by affected communities. This is from the Framework and the ongoing Given the number of lives lost through especially important in worst-case scenarios discussions that development cannot building collapses, there is also an obvious that might require moving large groups of achieve sustainability without addressing the role for engineering science and technology people out of harm’s way. corrosive impact of disaster risk. to play in reducing the risk either through Scientific enterprise is vitally important not The Third UN World Conference on retrofitting or ensuring building standards just for supporting mitigation, preparedness Disaster Risk Reduction has brought this are adequate in the first place. Technological and response measures but for the truth into the mainstream of thinking improvements in earthquake-proofing development of policy at the highest levels of around development and climate change. buildings are behind the current drive in government and in providing evidence of the The Sendai Framework has laid the Turkey to ensure that every school and benefits that ensue from investing in disaster foundation for the post-2015 development hospital in the country is earthquake-proof risk reduction. Community participation and agenda. The way is now clear for by 2018. Turkey is becoming a showcase understanding is crucial in all these efforts. If complementary agreements on sustainable for other countries facing this type of risk we are to reap the benefits from technology development and climate later this year.

CLIMATE 2020 SPONSORED FEATURE

Communities and land use are key in climate challenges

woodland expansion, agricultural mitigation and adaptation, risk to biodiversity, impacts on tourism, wind farms, domestic energy demand, carbon trading, targeting of mitigation measures in the Scottish Rural Development Programme (SRDP), and indicators of how the country is adapting to climate change. Peat, for example, covers 22% of Scotland’s land area. Peat soils are huge repositories of carbon, taken from the atmosphere by long-dead vegetation over the past 5,000- 10,000 years. Unfortunately, human activities over the last two centuries or so have degraded some of these areas and have partially released this carbon back into the atmosphere. Hutton researchers are involved in projects aiming to restore these degraded soils to stop further carbon losses and eventually recapture some of this carbon. This is seen as a good way to help meet overall net GHG emission reduction targets, in addition to other positive benefits on biodiversity conservation targets, drinking water quality and surface water management. Climate is undoubtedly changing. Our atmosphere The Institute is also researching factors that influence Qand oceans have warmed, amounts of snow and ice how we move towards a more sustainable and low carbon have diminished, sea levels have risen, and concentrations society. In the EU-funded ‘Towards European Societal of greenhouse gases have increased. Figures from the Sustainability’ project, our researchers are assessing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth potential of local and regional community-based initiatives Assessment Report show that warming of the Earth’s climate to be greener, and are developing tools for communities is indisputable, pointing out that it is “extremely likely” contemplating similar activities to assess their impact. that human influence has been the dominant cause of the Aberdeenshire is one of six case studies in the ‘Green Dr Robin Matthews is observed warning since the mid-20th century. Lifestyles, Alternative Models and Upscaling Regional leader of the Vibrant Mitigating and adapting to climate change is seen as the Sustainability’ project, which is looking into transitions to more and Low Carbon major environmental issue of our time, and the research that sustainable lifestyles and a greener economy. It focuses on Communities Theme the James Hutton Institute is carrying out with the Scottish energy use, housing, work-leisure balance, food consumption, and coordinates government and others is making an important contribution mobility and the consumption of manufactured products. ClimateXChange to this highly important issue. We are also helping other countries address and reduce activities at the James While Scotland is a relatively small contributor to overall the effects of climate change. The REDD-ALERT project Hutton Institute global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it is amongst the involves partners in Indonesia, Viet Nam, Cameroon and higher per capita emitters. The Scottish government has Peru, and is investigating ways in which international carbon accepted that it has a moral responsibility to demonstrate finance could be used to help reduce GHG emissions from that it can reduce net emissions and move to a low-carbon tropical deforestation, which contributes about 12% of total economy in a sustainable way. Accordingly, it passed global GHG emissions. Amongst other things, the work has legislation committing the country to GHG reduction targets helped to clarify the impact of clearing forests in Indonesia that are among the highest in the world: 42% by 2020 and for oil palm plantations. 80% by 2050. Since then, it has been developing policies and proposals to meet these targets. Recognising that some For more information visit www.hutton.ac.uk climate change will occur even if emissions are successfully reduced, it has also embarked on a programme to support adaptation to the climates of the future. The James Hutton Institute is at the forefront of climate change research. Through the ClimateXChange initiative set up by the Scottish government in 2011, the Institute has been providing information to policy teams on peatland restoration, 72 IMPACT

The ocean is the climate

Covering seven-tenths of the Earth’s surface, the oceans have played a major role in mopping up greenhouse gas emissions. What effect is this having on them and the ecosystems they support, and what does this mean for the future wellbeing of the planet? © NASA/Kathryn Hansen

By Luis Valdés, Head of Ocean Sciences; The Intergovernmental Oceanographic ICESCAPE, NASA’s shipborne investigation to study Thorkild Aarup, Head, Tsunami Unit; and how changing conditions in the Arctic affect the ocean’s Commission (IOC) of the UN Educational, chemistry and ecosystems Vladimir Ryabinin, Executive Secretary, Scientific and Cultural Organization Intergovernmental Oceanographic (UNESCO) has been involved in ocean and Commission of UNESCO climate change research since its founding the entire planet is only possible by adopting 55 years ago. It has been at the forefront of an internationally integrated approach. n many ways the ocean is the climate. the scientific debate that has expanded in All of us will have to learn how to live The ocean is the regulator of rainfall scope from supporting ocean observations with climate change. In 2000, the estimated Iand drought patterns. It has absorbed and detecting impacts to discussing population in the world’s Low Elevation approximately 30 per cent of all excess potential mechanisms that may be used to Coastal Zone (below 10 metres of elevation) carbon released into the atmosphere due mitigate and adapt to this new reality. was 625.2 million.1 Sea-level rise, together to human activities and more than 90 per This development reflects an urgent need with extreme weather events such as cent of the excess heat in the climate system to minimise the impacts of global warming typhoons and hurricanes, has caused many since the industrial revolution. This causes by taking action based on robust scientific tragedies in the last 10 years, including ocean warming and acidification, with a knowledge. Achieving a comprehensive the loss of thousands of human lives. direct impact on human coastal settlements, understanding of the ramifications and This is happening in developed countries for example through the rising sea level, and implications of climate change for human (Hurricane Katrina in the US in 2005) and on marine ecosystems. society and the ecology and sustainability of developing countries (Typhoon Haiyan in

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the Philippines in 2013). A less visible effect atmosphere has been absorbed by the climate conditions. Safeguarding carbon of sea-level rise is shoreline retreat and the oceans, this comes at a steep ecological cost. sinks and vital ecosystems is as essential for erosion that the sea is causing in coastal Elevated dissolved CO2 levels in seawater climate protection as reducing emissions. areas of many countries, which affects have resulted in a 26 per cent increase in the Degrading grasslands and aquatic systems is human settlements. acidity of the oceans since industrialisation the equivalent of killing our best allies in the Some countries are in a position to and in a corresponding change of the fight against climate change. prepare themselves for sea-level rise (such biogeochemical carbonate balance. The Blue Carbon concept, launched as the UK and the Netherlands) but many Concerns about ocean acidification, by the IOC together with the UN other countries will be severely impacted. first expressed in the early 1980s, have Environment Programme, the International The IOC is connected with the research on been fully confirmed. However, it is only Union for Conservation of Nature and sea-level rise through the World Climate now that the potential extent of the ocean Conservation International, aims to Research Programme and also coordinates acidification impacts on marine ecosystems mitigate climate change through the observation networks such as the Global is starting to be understood. Such impacts conservation and restoration of coastal and Sea Level Observing System and the Global may have significant ecological and marine ecosystems such as mangroves and Ocean Observing System. economic consequences, for example saltmarshes. These ecosystems are highly The oceans sustain a great wealth of affecting calcifying organisms such as productive and efficient in sequestering and biological diversity. A healthy marine oysters and other shellfish. Research groups storing ‘blue’ carbon from the atmosphere. environment is an important factor for economic development, social wellbeing and Surface ocean pH – November 2010 quality of human life. The effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and their living resources are diverse. For example, the coral reef ecosystems of today may not be viable at CO2 levels above 450-500 parts per million. This is a risk not only to the corals, but also to their entire ecosystem, which includes several thousands of species, about half of which are at risk of disappearing.

Establishing international scenarios Over the last 30 years, ecosystems in all European seas have changed substantially, in large part due to warming sea temperature © ESA linked to climate variability and change. The changes are reflected in the shifts of distribution, seasonal timing and loss in several countries suggest that ocean Estimates of ocean surface pH, produced with data from ESA’s Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission of biodiversity, with many appearing to pH levels be used to identify “dangerous accelerate. The prognosis is for continuing anthropogenic interference with the climate change as temperatures rise, with system”, as defined by the UN Framework Acting together with the biological pump likely significant detrimental effects on Convention on Climate Change, to set (exportation and sedimentation of organic biogeochemical cycles and living marine the CO2 stabilisation targets. National matter to the sea bed), this makes the oceans resources. and international science organisations, an essential element of the solution to global Ocean warming also contributes to including the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change. deoxygenation in several ways. Warmer Climate Change, have encouraged the IOC Warming, deoxygenation and acidification water holds less oxygen and warming of to continue to review this subject. The IOC already have, and will continue to have, ocean surface layers results in a stronger is supporting this work through a number of significant ecological and economic stratification (where water forms in layers working groups and an ocean acidification consequences. This is taken into account based on temperature and salinity). Reduced observation network. by proposed indicators for the Sustainable oxygen content alters coastal and open Understanding and quantifying the Development Goals to be agreed by the UN ocean ecosystems and can disrupt habitat role of the ocean as a natural sink for CO2 General Assembly this autumn. The IOC support functions. is crucial for establishing international co-sponsored several international scientific While approximately 30 per cent of emission-stabilisation scenarios and for symposia to review our knowledge on climate the human-made CO2 emitted into the understanding the ocean’s role in the future change science and to evaluate the physical,

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chemical and biological impacts of ocean warming and acidification in 2004, 2008, Other Ocean CO Ocean 2012 and 2015. But this is not sufficient. 2 GHG To detect reliably the human-made impact acidification warming on the marine environment, we need more sustained observations at a high temporal and spatial resolution, including physical, Direct impacts CO2 Direct impacts temperature chemical and biological measurements. Combined The impacts of climate change and other Physiology, Ice cap Sea-level osmotic human activities may be synergistic and Carbon melting rise pressure non-linear. The difficulty of disentangling cycle disturbance multiple stressors within poorly sampled systems has thwarted the discovery of marine Calcification Seasonal Population climate change impacts. Currently, no part stratification size of the ocean remains unaffected by human Productivity activities and their consequences, such as fishing, pollution, eutrophication (enriching Nutrients Physiology, Species Migratory stoichiometry the environment with nutrients), habitat phenology distribution routes destruction, hypoxia (reducing oxygen content), litter and species introductions. Non-linear and synergistic effects Cumulative effects Oxygen Currents & These stressors may have masked more subtle Biodiversity impacts of climate change (Figure 1, right) depletion circulation and may even have misled researchers to interpret climate change impacts as those of Opening of local environmental changes. The cumulative Loss of Upwelling North Pole habitats systems comm of two effects of multiple stressors may lead to oceans greater changes in marine systems than expected from studies focusing on a single Other human stressors stressor. We therefore need future research to determine the variables that are likely to Eutrophi- interact and the causes of such interaction. Bioinvasions Fisheries There is no longer any doubt that global cation warming and ocean acidification are real and that the climate of the Earth has entered Coastal a period of rapid change, with potential Pollution urbanisation negative consequences for the oceans, their ecosystems and living marine resources. The scientific challenge posed by climate change has led to the development of a corpus of as the most important priority to be tackled Conceptual model of oceanic stressors (Reid, P. C., and Valdés, L. 2011. ICES status report on climate change in observations, models and hypotheses for through common and concerted actions by the North Atlantic. ICES Cooperative Research Report critical processes involved in the functioning societies throughout the world. A need to No. 310, p262) of the Earth system. This progression has move to a low-carbon economy is widely strongly influenced other disciplines and recognised, as is the urgent need to reduce ecosystem services, trade and goods. If strong altered our approaches to such topics as risk global greenhouse gas emissions. If the mitigation and adaptation actions are taken analysis, socio-economics, ethics, politics, necessary reductions are not achieved, or are now, there is still time to avoid the worst energy, natural resource management, geo- achieved too late, greater emphasis will need impacts of climate change. engineering and even evolution. to be placed on adaptive measures in order 1 Neumann B., Vafeidis A.T., Zimmermann J. and Fortunately, the governments of many to counteract the climatic consequences of Nicholls R.J. (2015). Future Coastal Population countries have recognised the importance greenhouse gas emissions and thereby ensure Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding – A Global Assessment. PLoS of addressing this crisis and in many recent the well-being and safety of populations ONE 10(3): e0118571. doi:10.1371/journal. declarations have identified climate change in coastal regions, and the maintenance of pone.0118571.

CLIMATE 2020 SPONSORED FEATURE Marine protection to mitigate climate impacts The formation of Marine Protected Areas can play an important role in safeguarding valuable ecosystems and the transnational communities that depend on them in West Africa and the world

instruments to mitigate and adapt to these impacts and to increase the resilience of social and ecological ecosystems. MPAs also serve as barometers of climate change. With a total of 28 MPAs covering more than 2.8 million hectares, RAMPAO’s MPAs have management plans that call for ecological monitoring, and act essentially as laboratories where researchers and managers collaboratively monitor weather stations, rainfall and sea temperature levels. Combined with geographic data systems, images from kite aerial photography and satellite imagery, these monitoring systems provide information on the climate change impacts on biodiversity, migratory species and local communities, such as sea level rise, coastal erosion and increased salinity of mangrove and estuarine ecosystems.

Blue carbon sinks

© RAMPAO When faced with the uncertainty of exactly how vulnerable habitats and species are affected by climate change, MPA The West African marine eco-region is of strategic networks help to reduce the risk of catastrophic loss due Q importance, providing significant economic, to the more extreme impact of climate change, as well as environmental and social benefits, including the provision slow onset events. Another important result of establishing of valuable ecosystem services within and beyond Marine MPAs and organising them into ecological networks is that Protected Areas (MPAs). Not only do MPAs produce vital when you protect continuous habitats such as mangrove resources for specific groups of users who depend on them and sea grass ecosystems that span country borders, you for their food security, they also ensure long-term economic effectively mitigate climate change by preserving ‘blue carbon benefits for countries. sinks’ that sequester carbon dioxide. West Africa’s MPAs By Dr Dominique Considering the existence of migratory species, habitats and the RAMPAO network are clearly critical to preserving Duval-Diop, and resources that are shared across national boundaries, not only our region’s natural heritage, but they are essential Secretary General, and the mobility of users (including fishermen in the sub- contributors to the worldwide effort to preserve biodiversity West African region), conservation actors from Cape Verde, Mauritania, and mitigate the negative effects of changes in the climate. Network of Marine Senegal, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea Bissau and Sierra Leone This is why policies such as the Warsaw International Protected Areas, quickly recognised the need to address the management of Mechanism for Loss and Damage associated with Climate the coastal zone and its resources at the sub-regional level, Change Impacts, established at the COP19 of the UN RAMPAO creating the West African network of MPAs (RAMPAO) Framework Convention for Climate Change to address in April 2007. When MPAs are brought together in an loss and damage associated with both extreme weather ecological network such as the RAMPAO, they engage the events and slow onset events, are imperative for developing public, help improve overall management, monitor regional countries. By investing in this instrument and using it to conditions and trends, and help capitalise on the ecological support conservation, MPAs and the establishment of connectivity between sites to better understand climate MPA networks, developed countries can do their part to change effects and mitigate them. support further progress. This will help developing countries, We understand the importance of MPAs and MPA especially the poorest, adapt to the impacts of climate change networks in the conservation of biodiversity, but what is and build their own sustainable, clean energy futures. their role in the mitigation of the impacts of climate change? Climate change has direct and significant impacts on the composition and abundance of marine species and on the quality of the habitats that are found in both the oceans and the coastal zone. When we consider integration of climate change in the framework of biodiversity conservation, simply put, MPAs represent an excellent tool in the arsenal of 76 IMPACT

Nation under threat

The Republic of Kiribati, an island nation in the central Paciﬁc Ocean, faces the very real prospect of disappearing under rising sea levels by the end of the century. In this impassioned plea, its president calls for urgent action to avert disaster for this and other nations under climate threat

By Anote Tong, President of the Republic of Kiribati

ur world, the one and only home we have, is at a critical turning Opoint. If we continue on this path without due consideration of the consequences of our blind pursuit of proﬁts and short development gains, we risk causing our planet irreparable damage. At the core of this damage are lives, not only those of my people but of the rest of this global population. As world leaders we have acknowledged that climate change poses challenges to all of us, if in varying degrees. As leaders we have also agreed that turning a blind eye to the issue and delaying any action to address it is no longer an option for our countries and Debebe © UN Photo/Eskinder our peoples. The recent Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, held My people, living on low-lying atoll The village of Tebikenikora, Kiribati, is easily submerged by high tides, which has led to an in Sendai, Japan, and previous similar global islands no higher than three metres above exodus of the local population and regional conferences are testament to the sea level, are now facing major challenges commitment at the global level to address never faced before: not only from the rise in climate change. sea levels but also, as evidenced by Cyclone island nations such as Tuvalu, the Republic However, Cyclone Pam, which hit Pam, from extreme weather patterns. of the Marshall Islands, Tokelau and the Vanuatu and Kiribati in March 2015, Any high tide coupled with strong winds Maldives, we are on the frontline of this demonstrated that with the force of nature wreaks havoc to our islands, our homes and major calamity. increasing in intensity and frequency, time our villages. In some parts of the country My people and my nation, my fellow is of the essence if we are really committed whole villages have had to be relocated due small-island atoll nations – we can no to ensuring a safe and secure future for to severe coastal erosion. Food crops have longer afford to wait until the world makes our people. For my country, Kiribati, this been destroyed and the fresh water lens a decision on what actions to take against was the ﬁrst time in our history that the (our communities’ source of drinking water) climate change. Time is against us, with the remnants of a cyclone had touched our contaminated by the intruding sea water. future of men, women and children, whole shores, highlighting the delicate balance of Indeed our islands, our homes, may no cultures, communities, villages, cities and our planet’s ecosystem. It also highlighted the longer be habitable – or even exist – within nations at stake. realisation that our environment, our planet, this century. The future of our children, our Without exception, we all have a moral does not have limitless capacity to absorb the grandchildren and their children is at stake, obligation to do what must be done demands and abuses subjected to it. Weather with the very real prospect of the loss of individually and collectively to ensure patterns are indeed changing, and for most of their homes and identity as a people and a the survival of our planet, our one and us they are changing for the worse. culture. Together with other low-lying atoll only home.

CLIMATE 2020 IMPACT 77 © Roni Bintang/Reuters© Roni

By William Lacy Swing, Director General, Managing climate- International Organization for Migration e live in the era of greatest human movement in recorded driven migration Whistory. One in every seven people is a migrant and more people are moving today in the context of climate The effect of climate change on migration is complex, both change. The consequences of climate forcing displacement and limiting people’s ability to move. change further highlight how, if well governed, migration is inevitable, necessary Only by embedding action on migration into climate policy and even desirable. will the international community be able to prevent the Three points are worth noting. First, trends show that migration will rise due issue blighting the lives of millions of people to climate change, and that many more people will be vulnerable if they cannot move. Second, there are signiﬁcant

A Rohingya migrant at a temporary shelter in Aceh, Indonesia, talks on the phone with a relative in Malaysia

CLIMATE 2020 78 IMPACT © Rogan Ward/Reuters © Rogan accomplishments around the world to 16.7 million are refugees1 and 33.3 million conflict and displacement. Fourth, climate make environmentally related migration internally displaced people.2 variability affects livelihoods, food security dignified, orderly and humane. And third, Likewise, the number of people displaced and water availability, which lead affected all actors need to promote a coherent, by natural disasters has grown: an average of populations to seek alternative sources of coordinated, effective and sustained 27 million people each year between 2008 income in other locations. approach to climate change-related and 2013 were displaced, with significant Least developed countries will be most mobility by integrating migration concerns differences from year to year, but with affected as they have fewer resources to into climate change, disaster risk reduction, no fewer than 15 million every year.3 We adapt. The same is true for populations response and development policies at should also be concerned about the growing of low-lying islands, whose challenges all levels. numbers of people who would need to be were addressed at the Third International mobile to adapt and be resilient to climate Conference on Small Island Developing Migration trends change, but who do not have the resources. States and at the UN Climate Summit held Of the one billion migrants on the planet, This puts them at greater risk. in New York in September 2014. Over 75 232 million are international migrants. Climate change affects migration flows million people live just one metre or less Nearly three-quarters – 740 million – are by influencing factors that drive population above sea level, and the Intergovernmental internal migrants. People move for a variety movement. First, greater frequency and Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports of reasons, influenced by economic, social, intensity of weather-related disasters, both that much of this coastal land may be under political, environmental and demographic sudden and slow onset, lead to humanitarian water within the lifetimes of people alive conditions. emergencies and increased movement. today, placing this population at significant However, there are a growing number Second, rising sea levels make coastal risk of mass displacement. of people displaced by conflict and natural areas and low-lying islands uninhabitable, In addition to these pressures, disasters. An estimated 50 million are resulting in migration and displacement. environmental change can alter other currently displaced by conflict, the highest Third, competition over shrinking natural factors that influence migratory number since World War II, of which resources exacerbates tensions that fuel patterns, making it difficult to isolate the

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million and one billion, depending on various and local partners and collects information in climate scenarios, the adaptation measures a series of snapshots to show trend direction, taken and other political and demographic numbers and conditions of displaced people. factors.4 This estimate of vulnerable people Having good data will allow practitioners would rise if one were to take into account to plan for climate-induced mobility. those who cannot move but need to. Mobility can sometimes be the only safe option for those whose lives are affected Progress to date by environmental change. Unplanned There has been important progress movements of this nature can reduce access in improving data collection and the to services and livelihoods for people integration of migration concerns into unfamiliar with the environment they are relevant policies – both areas that are closely moving through or settling in. linked. Improving data collection is crucial As a response, a number of IOM’s to evidence-based policies, and the key to Member States have institutionalised good data is partnership. the use of labour migration as a tool for The International Organization for climate change adaptation, risk reduction Migration (IOM) remains committed to and recovery. Colombia and Spain, for furthering its research initiatives while example, have facilitated temporary and focusing actions on the populations of circular labour migration of workers from greatest concern, given the challenges of regions hit by disasters in Colombia. New identifying what drives movement with Zealand has established the Pacific Access limited availability of robust data. For Category for nationals of Kiribati, Tuvalu example, to strengthen knowledge and and Tonga, as well as the Recognised information-sharing with new evidence Seasonal Employers scheme for short-term on migration and the environment, IOM work for Pacific islanders in the horticulture has launched a three-year project called industry. IOM promotes and facilitates the Migration, Environment and Climate use of these kinds of initiatives for more Change: Evidence for Policy. countries by working at a regional level Funded by the European Union, through regional consultative processes on Malawian nationals queue to register at a camp for the project aims to address the lack of migration, which offer a privileged space those affected by anti-immigrant violence in Durban, South Africa in April 2015 comparable data on displaced populations. It for informal inter-state discussions and has developed a cross-country comparative consensus for action. analysis of six pilot countries: Dominican Furthermore, the growth in the number environment as the primary driver. Because Republic, Haiti, Kenya, Mauritius, Papua of migrants around the world emphasises people often associate climate change with New Guinea and Viet Nam. The surveys the need to include migrants and mobility in forced migration, it seems counter-intuitive of internal migrants’ places of origin and humanitarian response mechanisms. In the that changing environmental conditions destination inform policy on how human 2011 floods that affected Bangkok and one also diminish levels of ‘outmigration’ by mobility promotes resilience and the ability fifth of Thailand, at least 600,000 migrant reducing household incomes and trapping to cope with environmental change. Lessons workers from Myanmar were trapped people who lack the resources to move. This identified and good practices will be in affected areas and faced challenges in creates a vicious cycle that makes them even based on the types of mobility (migration, accessing information and assistance. more vulnerable. displacement, planned relocation), rather Helping these migrant populations Climate change therefore makes tens than the country specificities, thereby required concerted action from the of millions of people a year vulnerable in providing comparative insights for other authorities. In response to a widely complex ways, both by forcing displacement countries with similar migrant populations perceived gap, IOM and its partners have and limiting people’s ability to use mobility and environmental contexts. developed tools such as the Comprehensive to adapt. This makes it hard to apply the Another good example of partnership in Guide for Planning Mass Evacuations traditional distinctions between forced and data collection and analysis is the Internal in Natural Disasters,5 which provides a voluntary, and temporary and permanent Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) template to use and adapt in developing migration. It also makes it difficult to project annual report. This combines national effective national evacuation plans. One the numbers of climate-vulnerable people. data on displacement caused by natural notable initiative for emergency response Current forecasts for the number of climate- disasters with data from IOM’s Displacement is the state-led Migrants in Countries in induced migrants by 2050 vary between 25 Tracking Matrix, which supports national Crisis. Launched in 2014, this aims to

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develop guiding principles and effective its Fifth Assessment Report, acknowledged Assistance Framework and local practices to improve the ability of states that migration can be an adaptation development plans should include migration and other actors to be prepared to strategy to cope with climate change, where issues in support of making internal and alleviate the suffering and protect the “expanding opportunities for mobility can international migration a positive and safe dignity and rights of migrants caught in reduce vulnerability for such populations”.7 choice and reducing displacement and countries during acute crises, including Disaster preparedness measures, including ‘desperation migration’ drivers.8 natural disasters.6 well-planned evacuation frameworks, At the international level, coherence are needed at all levels to reduce loss of across policy domains will allow The road ahead life and negative impacts on the affected stakeholders to overcome important silos. The key to coordinated, coherent, effective populations. Planned relocation reduces This will involve mainstreaming migration and sustainable action on climate change- the exposure of vulnerable populations in across all policy levels that address climate related mobility is the integration of slow-onset situations, although it can be a change and forced displacement. migration concerns into climate change, complex process with multiple implications The interconnected nature of peace, risk reduction, preparedness, response and on aggregate risk levels. Experiences and development, environment and human development policies at all levels – global, rights requires us to integrate migration regional and national. We need to create concerns into a comprehensive rights-based strong partnerships, reduce mobility- Sudden and unplanned approach. Anything less will neglect the related vulnerabilities and build capacity for mobility will continue, rights of more than one billion migrants mobility to strengthen resilience. and the billions more whose lives and and we must be livelihoods they benefit. The Hyogo 1. Partnerships for preparedness to minimise prepared to respond with Framework for Action II (on disaster risk forced migration reduction), the UN Framework Convention Preparedness undertaken in partnership humanitarian assistance on Climate Change meeting in December, with local and national authorities is crucial in a way that protects the Sustainable Development Goals due to to minimise forced migration that can occur be agreed this autumn and the 2016 World in the context of environmental degradation the rights of migrants Humanitarian Summit are all opportunities and climate change. Infrastructure capacity we must seize. must be reinforced in areas likely to be Climate change will continue to influence affected by sudden-onset events, including success stories demonstrate that adequate migratory patterns. While stakeholders rehabilitation of coastal storm defence participation of concerned households have begun to respond to its challenges systems or construction of water-harvesting in the decision-making process, as well with concrete actions, more needs to be structures such as shallow wells. as long-term support for their livelihood done. Moving forward, we must undertake Livelihoods need to be strengthened and options, is essential in designing and coherent and comprehensive responses to diversified in ways that encourage resilience, implementing relocation plans that can the changes and crises we all face to make such as introducing drought-resistant crops effectively reduce risk. human mobility a positive, informed and or promoting conservation to avoid coping Sudden and unplanned mobility will safe option for resilience and adaptation that responses that negatively affect livelihoods continue, and we must be prepared to benefits all. in the long term. IOM likewise seeks to respond with humanitarian assistance in a promote temporary and circular labour way that protects the rights of migrants, 1 UNHCR Statistical Yearbook (2013), 13th edition. 2 IDMC see: www.internal-displacement.org/about- migration schemes to prevent the loss of meets their basic needs and avoids us/idmc-media-centre livelihood associated with environmental straining host communities. In this regard, 3 Ibid. degradation and natural hazards by it is essential to build local institutions’ 4 See: IOM Outlook on Migration, Environment and Climate Change for more information on facilitating institutional arrangements, capacities to provide basic services to projections – http://publications.iom.int/bookstore/ transportation and access to labour markets. mobile populations. free/MECC_Outlook.pdf This has allowed affected communities to 5 See: www.globalcccmcluster.org/system/files/ 3. Strengthening human mobility as a strategy publications/MEND_download.pdf pursue structured and supported ways to 6 See: http://tinyurl.com/IOM-MICIC find alternative incomes. for resilience and adaptation 7 IPCC WGII (2014), p.20. It is essential to build capacity in a 8 Melde, S. and S. Lee (2014), ) “‘Guidelines for 2. Reducing the vulnerability of migrants when integrating migration into the National Adaptation coordinated manner that will enable those Planning process”’, UNU–-EHS–-Nansen movement does occur at risk to use mobility to adjust to change Initiative Joint Policy Brief 2, Integrating Human Moving can be the only option for affected and build resilience. Action is required at Mobility Issues within the National Adaptation Plans. www.environmentalmigration.iom.int/ communities in situations where forced different levels. At country level, national integrating-human-mobility-issues-within-national- migration is not preventable. The IPCC, in adaptation plans, the UN Development adaptation-plans

CLIMATE 2020 1 billion people have no choice but to defecate outside, onto the ground and in full view of other people.

search 82 IMPACT

Climate change and conﬂict

A changing climate, and the associated threat of chronic resource scarcity, brings with it the risk of new conﬂicts erupting around the world, and of exacerbating current disputes. What can the international community do to prevent climate-related conﬂict taking root?

By Abiodun Williams, President, have on human livelihoods are relatively the world’s existing nation states cease to be The Hague Institute for Global Justice straightforward. It is not difficult to imagine viable on current territory. how land degradation, chronic droughts and In short, climate change may exacerbate f climate change was once a topic repeated crop failure will erode agricultural socio-economic stresses such as loss of associated principally with sustainable production and undermine communities’ arable land, resource scarcities, forced Idevelopment, it is now rightly also an economic and food security. However, migration and weakening institutions, all issue at the top of the agenda of security the secondary effects of these processes of which could make a violent escalation of planners at both domestic and international may be equally important drivers of social inter- and intrastate conflicts more likely. level. This can be seen not only in the conflict. Infectious disease resulting from In response, government at all levels must national security strategies of various states malnutrition or water shortage may be less address issues of resource scarcity and – including the UK, US and Germany – but visible but equally powerful determinants competition, as well as the trends – such as also in the extent to which discussion of of poverty, socio-economic exclusion and, displacement – that they fuel. climate change and its attendant effects has ultimately, conflict. permeated high-level political dialogue on Displacement induced by natural Avoiding harm matters of international peace and security. disasters has risen in recent years, and Though the need for action is clear, it is also When the UN Security Council held its the effects of climate change are expected vital to act in a way that abides by a principle first debate on the impact of climate change to intensify such disasters and accelerate of reducing harm, for climate change presents on peace and security in 2007, the official forced migration in upcoming decades. significant collective-action problems. Not press release noted that ‘some delegations only can behaviour by one state (such as raise[d] doubts regarding Council’s role on increases in carbon emissions) self-evidently [the] issue’. Since then, it has become ever Food insecurity was one imperil global efforts to counter climate clearer that climate change is a phenomenon challenges, but adaptive action taken by intricately connected to the challenge of of the causes of the 2011 individual governments can often have cross- upholding peace. As such, it is an issue with protests that were the border effects, albeit (sometimes) unintended. which the Council will increasingly have to If not carefully managed, these measures, grapple in the future. prelude to Syria’s civil war which betray ignorance of potential negative The recognition that climate change may externalities beyond a state’s borders, can provoke new conflicts or exacerbate existing become a source of interstate conflict. ones is underpinned by the more nuanced The number of storms, droughts and floods Examples of interstate disputes over understanding of the causes of conflict has increased threefold over the last 30 shared water resources include the Aral that has been reflected in scholarship over years with devastating effects on vulnerable Sea, the Nile, Euphrates-Tigris, Jordan, the past two decades. The human security communities, particularly in the developing Ganges-Brahmaputra and Mekong paradigm that revolutionised thinking world. Over the past five years, an average river basins. Effective water and climate about the conflict–development nexus has of nearly 27 million people have been diplomacy requires assurance that shared provided scholars and practitioners with displaced annually by natural hazard-related water resources are managed efficiently, a valuable lens through which to view the disasters. sustainably and equitably. effects of climate change on both states The position of small island developing Climate change can act as a threat and people. states is particularly precarious. multiplier in paradoxical ways. In some Though the drivers of conflict are often International law is ill-prepared for thorny instances, it exacerbates resource scarcity. multifarious and interwoven, many of the questions of citizenship and sovereignty that A salient example comes from Syria, negative impacts that climate change will will arise in the coming decades as some of where several UN reports show that from

CLIMATE 2020 IMPACT 83 © UNICEF/Shehzad Noorani © UNICEF/Shehzad

Syrian refugees in the Kawergosk camp, Iraq. Conflict-sensitive climate strategies strategies do no harm to other states, with a Crop failures and food insecurity played a role in triggering the protests that led to civil war What these examples show is that any resulting increase – unwittingly or otherwise approach that considers the challenges of – in conflict risks. climate change or conflict in isolation is Climate change is a multi-level challenge. 2006–11, 60 per cent of Syria’s land had likely to fail. Much progress has been made Just as its effects are felt at the level of to deal with the worst prolonged drought in understanding the relationship between interstate relations as well as in local and the heaviest crop failures for thousands conflict, security and development. In communities, so the solutions are to be of years, prompting a mass migration of today’s world, no security assessment can found in the tribunes of the UN, as well as farming families to urban centres. This led be complete with an understanding of the in adaptive strategies suited to protecting to extreme food insecurity, which was one of risks and opportunities that a changing individual livelihoods. And if the challenge the causes of the 2011 protests that were the climate augurs. is multi-level, the solution is also multi- prelude to the devastating civil war. While these trends highlight the need stakeholder: inculcating conflict-sensitive In other instances, climate change brings for more scholarship in this nascent field, climate adaptation strategies among with it the potential for competitive scrambles there are already actions that policymakers businesses and civil society organisations over newly accessible resources. A prime can take to mitigate against extant threats. is as important as action by local, nation, example is in the High North, where melting It is a positive step that national defence regional and international authorities. ice caps are revealing vast unexplored stores and foreign ministries are integrating a The scale of the threat posed by climate of hydrocarbons. The Arctic is the archetype better understanding of climate change into change is a daunting one. It carries with it for the increasingly complex relationship their own national security strategies. But the risks that conflicts will spread, whether between security and development. Not only they must make commensurate efforts to inadvertently or as a result of new rivalries. are questions of governance raised about ensure that their international development, But it also offers – through painstaking access to oil and gas in the Arctic Sea, but so conflict prevention and peacebuilding diplomacy – opportunities for new forms of are ethical issues around the ownership and efforts are equally climate sensitive. They cooperation. In that sense, tackling climate use of these resources. must also ensure that their own adaptive change can also offer a path to peace.

CLIMATE 2020 84 IMPACT

Ensuring food security

What can be done to mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security, hunger and malnutrition?

By Richard Choularton, Chief, change could increase the prices of major World Food Programme, Climate and crops in some regions. For the most Disaster Risk Reduction vulnerable people, lower agricultural output would also mean lower income. Under limate change represents a serious these conditions, the poorest people – who threat to food security and the most already use most of their income on food – Cvulnerable people are already being would have to sacrifice additional income to affected the most. meet their nutritional requirements. While progress has been made during the Nutrition will be further affected by last two decades to reduce hunger, climate impacts on dietary diversity, water quality, change jeopardises these gains. About one care practices and health. Already, more in every nine of the world’s population than 20 per cent of variation in height was chronically undernourished between in developing countries is determined 2012 and 2014, according to the 2014 by environmental factors, particularly State of Food Insecurity in the World report.1 drought.3 Drought has severe impacts on But, by the year 2050, hunger and child dietary diversity and reduces overall food malnutrition could increase by as much as consumption. 20 per cent as a result of climate change.2 The most vulnerable at risk How climate change drives hunger Increased risks from climate extremes are Climate change acts as a multiplier of among the most concerning risks from existing threats to food security, and of climate change. In 2013, more than 90 per © UNICEF/LeMoyneFarran hunger and malnutrition. It will make cent of natural disasters were climate related, climate disasters more frequent and intense, primarily floods, storms and droughts. More invariably mean that they are more land and water more scarce and difficult than 80 per cent of the world’s food-insecure vulnerable the next time a shock occurs. to access, and increases in agricultural people live in countries that are prone to Studies from Bangladesh show increased productivity even harder to achieve. This natural hazards and are characterised by land rates of wasting (an indicator of acute could accelerate urbanisation and intensify and ecosystem degradation,4 amplifying the malnutrition) and stunting (an indicator conflicts over even scarcer resources, damage of disasters. of chronic malnutrition) among preschool likely leading to new humanitarian crises, Climate shocks disproportionately affect children after floods. In Niger, children migration and displacement. the most vulnerable and food insecure born during a drought are more than twice A significant body of research shows that people, especially women and children. as likely to be malnourished between the changes in climatic conditions have already When climate disasters strike, the situation ages of one and two. In the Philippines affected the production of some staple of already vulnerable people can quickly over the last two decades, 15 times as many crops. Higher temperatures impact yields, deteriorate into a food and nutrition crisis, infants have died in the 24 months following while changes in rainfall could affect both as they resort to desperate measures, such as typhoons than directly as a result of the crop quality and quantity. selling their productive assets, taking their typhoons. Most of these infants are girls. Climate change will also affect people’s children out of school or reducing their Natural disasters displaced an average access to food and their nutrition. Climate overall food consumption. These measures of 27 million people each year between

CLIMATE 2020 IMPACT 85

A girl is assessed for malnutrition in Bangui, Central African Republic, a country afflicted by ongoing civil war

their livelihoods under a changing climate; protect their assets, incomes and crops with insurance and savings; improve their access to markets and help them make more informed decisions with better climate forecasts. We are working to accelerate the development of large-scale solutions to help the countries and communities we serve better manage increasing climate risks and become food secure. Not only do we believe this is necessary, we also believe it makes economic sense. A 2013 study commissioned by the UK’s Department for International Development – on the economics of early response and resilience – found that investments in resilience bring substantial returns in terms of averting the need for humanitarian assistance and achieving broader developmental outcomes. In Bangladesh, when the increased risks from the impact of climate change were taken into account, the study found that early response could save between $10.7 billion and $13.5 billion, and resilience- building could save between $15.6 billion and $34.3 billion over a 20-year period, rather than traditional disaster response. Building the resilience of vulnerable people to climate change is a pre-requisite to eliminating hunger. With the climate negotiations taking place in Paris later in the year, 2015 is an opportunity to continue working towards a zero-hunger world. A meaningful agreement that includes food- 2008 and 2013, with at least 15 million worldwide. In the last decade, almost half insecure populations and the required actions people a year being displaced. Developing of our emergency and recovery operations and investments to help them to adapt to countries account for the vast majority of addressed the impact of climate disasters. climate change should be our next goal. displacement – 97 per cent between 2008 These operations had a combined budget of and 2013. Significantly more people are $23 billion. 1 FAO, IFAD and WFP. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2014. displaced by disasters now than in the 1970s. We have made improving our efforts to 2 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), IPCC, 2014 According to the Internal Displacement reduce disaster risk, build resilience and 3 Silventoinen, K. 2003. Determinants of variation Monitoring Centre, in absolute terms, the support adaptation to climate change central in adult body height. Journal of Biosocial Sciences, 35:263–285. risk of displacement is estimated to have components of our work. Our primary 4 INFORM, 2014. INFORM Natural Hazard more than doubled in four decades. Climate focus is to ensure that those who are most Composite Indicator; (2) EM-DAT, 2014. change is increasing this risk. vulnerable and at risk of hunger have International Disaster Database (online); (3) IFPRI, WHH & Concern Worldwide, 2014. 2014 adequate access to food. Without significant Global Hunger Index Data; (4) World Bank (2014). WFP: building resilience through investments in building their resilience, the Population Figures (online); (5) GLASOD, 1990. large-scale innovations world’s most food-insecure people will not GLASOD Assessment of Human-induced Soil degradation. (5) Bai, Dent, Olsson & Schaepman, The World Food Programme is the largest be able to begin adapting to the changing 2008. Proxy global assessment of land degradation, humanitarian agency fighting hunger climate. Specifically, we help people diversify Soil Use and Management.

CLIMATE 2020 86 IMPACT

The health burden of global warming

What are the potential problems for health that climate change brings? What can be done to prepare and protect those communities at greatest risk?

By Mark Grabowsky, Chief Operating Officer, because they have a reservoir of resilience: October 2012, 53 New Yorkers died, mostly Office of the UN Special Envoy for Financing excess agricultural production, robust through drowning. There were very few the Health Millennium Development Goals hospital capacity and a social safety net. post-Sandy deaths. Coincidentally, only 54 and for Malaria And like the simple act of moving from people in Haiti were reported to have died the sun into the shade, wealthier societies during Sandy. However, because Haiti had an limate change is not good for the have adapted to the changing climate by ongoing cholera outbreak and an ineffective planet. It’s not good for the human effectively shading themselves – with air public health system, the storm flooding Crace. And it’s especially not good for conditioning at home, work and shopping intensified the outbreak, resulting in large the world’s most vulnerable people, who will malls. Research from France shows that numbers of post-hurricane cholera cases. bear the heaviest burden of Earth’s rising over time the mortality from excess Similarly, societies with other endemic temperature. Let’s start with climate change warming has decreased as we adapt. water-borne illnesses such as campylobacter and human survival. It turns out that there is But as climate events become more and Giardia have outbreaks after floods. an optimal temperature for human survival severe, we may be reaching the limits of Studies of water-borne illness and climate called the minimum mortality temperature. our ability to adapt. Previously rare heat change show that those most likely to be Departures from this optimal temperature events are becoming more common and affected by climate change are those that are in either direction are associated with suffering before the changes. increases in mortality. That optimum Climate change will have its greatest temperature is around 18°C (64°F), similar Climate change will impact on those areas with the least to what could be found on a typical spring have its greatest impact resilience and the highest background or autumn day in New York City. In Britain, mortality rates. We know where these annual mortality increases by about two on those areas with areas are. Child and maternal mortality is per cent for each degree of average increase the least resilience increasingly focused in hot spots of civil or decrease. In France, when the average unrest and poor health services. temperatures rises to 25°C, the mortality These areas are well known and make up rate increases by 15 per cent. are affecting wider geographic areas. The parts of countries in three areas: Central There is an additional mortality effect of 2003 European heatwave – the most severe Africa (Democratic Republic of the Congo), consecutive high-temperature days during in recorded European history – resulted in Sahel Region (Mali, Northern Nigeria, a heatwave. The effect is not limited to 70,000 excess deaths. Niger, Chad, Somalia and Sudan) and those in poor health, such as the elderly. It There is a high degree of certainty that Southwest Asia (Afghanistan and Pakistan). also results in higher mortality among the human activity caused or exacerbated that Of the 14 countries that are furthest from healthy, including newborn infants. heatwave. Subsequent heatwaves in 2006 achieving Millennium Development Goal There are different optimal temperatures and 2010 have set additional record high 4 (child survival), 11 are classified as fragile for other organisms. The optimal temperatures. These heatwaves resulted states. Overall, about one-third of global growing temperature for the organisms in lowered agricultural outputs and child mortality occurs in these limited responsible for most infectious disease direct economic losses through lowered geographic areas even though they make up deaths – mosquitoes, cholera, E.coli and production, employment and consumption. about only about one tenth of the world’s pneumococcus – is around 28°C to 30°C. The same events will cause relatively population. Children in these environments Well-developed nations have been able larger impacts in less resilient populations. have a four times higher risk of death to adapt to the Earth’s temperature changes When Hurricane Sandy hit New York in than children in non-fragile settings. The

CLIMATE 2020 IMPACT 87 © UN Photo/Hien Macline © UN Photo/Hien

governments and routine health service While health is but one of the negative Children in Côte d’Ivoire during a UN renovation of their orphanage. The most vulnerable lack the resilience delivery in fragile states are too weak to effects of climate change, we are fortunate to withstand the impacts of climate change provide the full package of prevention and that many of our current health tools treatment services for the leading threats are highly effective regardless of the pregnancy – regardless of the change in to survival: newborn causes, pneumonia, environmental temperature. Vaccinations, annual rainfall. A family that has a bednet malaria, diarrhoea and under-nutrition. family planning, antibiotics and bednets and access to malaria treatment is far less This highlights the importance of remain effective and essential, and their likely to suffer from malaria even with the the proposed Sustainable Development importance in a world of increasing increase in mosquitoes. Goal that focuses on mitigating and temperature and climate impact is that As we commit ourselves to addressing adapting to climate change. The target much greater. climate change, we also need to commit is to “strengthen resilience and adaptive A child who is vaccinated against to addressing its impacts, which will fall capacity to climate-induced hazards and diarrhoea and pneumonia will continue most heavily among those who are already natural disasters in all countries.” In order to be protected regardless of a change in suffering the most. Reducing these people’s to truly mitigate these impacts, we need to temperature. A woman or girl with access vulnerability now is an essential step in address the effects of climate change on the to family planning is protected against the preparing to address climate-related health world’s highest-risk populations. greatest threat to her health – an unwanted problems later.

CLIMATE 2020 88 REMEDIES

Countdown to zero?

Zero net global greenhouse gas emissions must become a reality before the end of the century if humankind is to stave off the worst effects of climate change. How can this be achieved?

By Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Deputy Director to within 2°C over the pre-industrial average. General/Deputy Chief Executive Officer, It’s doable, but requires a high level of International Institute for Applied Systems ambition to achieve immediate and vigorous Analysis, Austria emissions reductions. The UN Climate Change Conference in his is a big year for embarking on Paris in December 2015 is aiming for – and transformational change towards a will hopefully get – a climate agreement Tsustainable future for planet Earth. based on the 2°C limit that will be legally Three major global events are taking place, binding on every nation. To come near to on financing and investments in Addis Ababa, achieving this target will require addressing sustainable development in New York and energy systems, which is central to climate mitigation in Paris. greenhouse gas emissions mitigation – 80 per Energy futures are a major challenge on cent of global energy is derived from fossil the way forward. In September the UN fuels. Limiting emissions will involve a major General Assembly in New York will focus on transformation of energy systems toward full the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), decarbonisation. which emphasise an enabling environment and economy for human development. Stabilisation scenarios According to Kandeh Yumkella, Special But we need to move urgently. IIASA Representative of the UN Secretary-General research has shown that to meet the 2°C for Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All), target and avoid dangerous climate change, the proposed SDG 7 on energy (‘Ensure emissions will need to peak by 2020. By Fires burn off logged virgin rainforest cleared to plant oil palm trees in Tripa, Aceh province, Indonesia access to affordable, reliable, sustainable 2050, they will have to be reduced by 30 to and modern energy for all’) is “the golden 70 per cent compared to today’s levels, and thread that links poverty eradication, then they will need to go down to zero well equitable economic growth and a healthy before the end of the century. atmosphere, so that excess emissions are environment”. The reason is that the amount of carbon offset rendering stabilisation at 2°C possible SE4All calls for universal access to energy that can be emitted in the future is limited if despite an emissions overshoot. services, doubling the rate of energy intensity we are to restrict climate change to any given The question is how could this be done. improvement and doubling the share of level. For example, to meet the 2°C target, In stabilisation scenarios, the negative renewable energy, all by 2030. These goals humanity has a total carbon budget of some emissions are achieved, for instance, by are based on the Global Energy Assessment thousand billion tons of carbon dioxide. combining combustion of sustainable (GEA), coordinated by the International This budget needs to be allocated along sources of biomass with carbon capture Institute for Applied Systems Analysis possible emissions pathways, which explains and storage (CCS). Both technologies are (IIASA) and the result of five years’ work by the need for achieving a peak as soon as difficult from the current perspective and 500 experts worldwide. possible followed by a decline to zero would require further development and The world is also going to have to emissions. Should the emissions peak be late vigorous deployment to reduce the costs introduce a workable, implementable scheme or decline rate too slow, humanity is likely and improve their performance. to stave off the possibility of runaway climate to exceed the cumulative carbon budget. CCS will presumably be developed anyway change, one with the objective of keeping the If this occurs, negative emissions would be to decarbonise fossil fuels in those parts of average global surface temperature increase required: namely, carbon removal from the the world where a transformation toward

CLIMATE 2020 REMEDIES 89

Also in this section

Generating power 94

Protecting forests 97

Sustainable transport 100

Cities of the future 104

Green buildings 106

Managing waste 108

Taxing carbon 112

Carbon trading 115 © Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images Nickelsberg/Getty © Robert

The case for a renewable, and possibly also nuclear, energy coal) causes small particle pollution that is delayed. adversely affects the health of women and carbon budget 118 So we can decarbonise fossil fuels or children. IIASA research is analysing how to switch to a higher percentage of carbon- introduce clean modern energy for cooking Operating the free energy sources, such as many forms of to millions of people and to cut indoor and carbon budget 121 renewable energy, to reduce and eventually outdoor pollution from these sources. eliminate emissions. What else can we do? Improving air quality in cities with GEA findings show that emissions could ground-level ozone, or smog (which results Carbon capture be reduced by up to half by efficiency from chemical reactions between polluting and storage 124 improvements in energy, especially in compounds in the presence of sunlight), has end-use. This means looking at reducing clear synergies for human health, reducing emissions from areas such as transport, cardiac, pulmonary and other diseases. It buildings, heating and cooling, urbanisation can increase human capital, too. One line of and electric appliances. It means changing IIASA research shows that implementing a mindsets, getting people and policymakers stringent climate policy could reduce globally engaged in the emissions-reduction process. aggregated lives lost due to indoor and Not all emissions come from sources that regional air pollution by up to four million. are judged to be a sign of development. In Sectoral interdependencies with respect many developing countries, cooking over to emissions are increasing. For example, smoky fires burning traditional biomass (or reducing carbon and particle emissions to

CLIMATE 2020 90 REMEDIES

keep climate change in check has enormous implications for the food and water supply. Staggering amounts of water are needed to grow food but are also needed for sustaining energy systems. The productivity of land areas depends on climate and soil conditions. California is entering its fourth year of severe drought, raising concerns for agriculture and wildlife. Unsustainable water use in the state is draining aquifers containing ancient water that will take centuries to replenish. All water systems – not simply those in traditionally arid or developing areas – are vulnerable to the changing climate. Reducing water use immediately reduces demand for electricity, as well as the fuels required to generate electricity. Water is needed to grow crops for biofuels, but fuel transport © Lucy Nicholson/Reuters costs can be reduced by co-locating biofuel cultivation close to the communities that use The Los Angeles Aqueduct Cascades bring water pockets. To transform the global energy 223 miles from the eastern Sierra Nevada mountains. them – another IIASA research result. Water California is entering its fourth year of severe drought system, the volume of investment will have can also produce plenty of hydroelectricity. to almost double over the next three to five Renewable energy technologies can be decades, from about $1.3 trillion to some utilised to provide heat and electricity needs lifetime in its roots, leaves and branches. $2.5 trillion. for water desalination. Water and energy use Large-scale deforestation therefore is a The money is available. Insurance have almost boundless synergies and have to major contributor to carbon emissions. and pension funds control $50 trillion. be analysed from an integrated perspective, Nitrogen emissions from agriculture, Governments can help catalyse other kinds which is why at IIASA examining the energy- wastewater management and industrial of private investment by providing research water nexus is such a priority. processes are also produced by human and development and early deployment, activities and need to be mitigated. and by helping to de-risk investment. The Complex problems These are complex problems and huge cost savings of these climate policy synergies Stringent emission-reduction policies can investments are needed to solve the energy are potentially enormous: $100-600 billion also help to bolster the energy security challenges society faces today. The ostensibly annually by 2030 in reduced pollution goals of individual countries and regions. control and energy security expenditures Such policies promote energy efficiency, (0.1-0.7 % of GDP) could be achieved the diversification of the energy supply mix Sustainability in every by combining climate mitigation with and the increased utilisation of domestically aspect of human life combating air pollution rather than pursuing available renewable energy sources. The the two goals independently. result would be energy systems that are more means a shift to For emission reductions to be successful, resilient and simultaneously have a higher equity and inclusion these practical and financial considerations degree of sovereignty, especially compared will need to be supported by a new ethical to those so reliant on imports of fossil energy awareness that will temper our relationship commodities, such as North America, single aim of reducing emissions will, in fact, with each other and our planet. Sustainability Europe, Japan and, increasingly, China. require a multiple paradigm shift affecting in every aspect of human life means a shift to The international community has also every domain simultaneously. There are many equity and inclusion. woken up to the significance of climate- golden threads, and they are very entangled. With the fast-growing population relevant emissions from deforestation To fund the transformation to sustainable and the need for universal development, and land degradation. The UN’s REDD+ energy services for all, including the three the requirement to control emissions is initiative (reducing emissions from billion ‘left behind’ without access and living extremely urgent. The golden thread deforestation and forest degradation) is one at or below the poverty line, the Third described by Yumkella with respect to of the more promising areas of agreement International Conference on Financing for the energy sustainable development goal in global climate negotiations. Felling a Development in Addis Ababa in July will encompasses the notions of both opportunity tree always releases carbon, stored over its need to dig very deep into its collective and fragility, but it binds us all.

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The pivotal role of carbon capture, utilisation and storage CCUS promises a unique bridging solution for developing countries, offering affordable and attainable clean energy that will enable development. Large-scale commercial demonstrations are now needed

The next 35 years will bring many complex One CCUS strategy, in particular, seems likely to create Qchallenges, especially to developing countries. The near-term, win-win opportunities that are highly relevant UN projects global population to increase by two billion in developing countries. Jupiter Oxygen Corporation’s people by 2050, mostly in the developing countries of practical application of high flame temperature oxy- Africa and Asia. During this period, the imperative that combustion (i.e., the burning of fossil fuels in a boiler will drive developing country governments will be poverty with nearly pure oxygen) involves fitting the technology alleviation and the transition to sustainable economic to existing and new power plants. Oxy-combustion growth. The pressures of resource scarcity, combined technology generates highly concentrated CO in the flue Dietrich M. Gross, 2 Chairman & CEO, with limited supplies of hard currency, will push many gas and enables cost–effective capture of CO2. Co-benefits Jupiter Oxygen developing countries toward mounting reliance on from applying oxy-combustion based, carbon capture domestic fossil fuels, especially coal. and utilisation technologies include air pollutant control, Corporation USA Historical emissions and continuing release of process water recycling and making CO2 available as a greenhouse gases by industrialised countries, combined salable product. with increasing fossil fuel-related emissions from developing countries, will push atmospheric concentrations Key to sustainable development: clean energy technology solutions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases to record levels. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2014 concludes that policy choices and market developments as outlined in their central scenario bring the Thomas Weber, share of fossil fuels in primary energy consumption just below President, 75% in 2040, and are not enough to stem the rise in energy- 1 Jupiter Oxygen related CO2 emissions, which will increase 20% by 2040. Corporation USA Transformational clean energy technologies needed to ensure the 2ºC scenario

Fortunately, a new set of cleaner fossil energy technologies Who will buy the CO2?

has emerged to act as a bridge from conventional The captured CO2 from oxy-combustion can be injected fossil fuels to abundant clean and sustainable forms of into partially-depleted oil wells, driving out previously energy. The commercial introduction of carbon capture, untapped quantities of crude petroleum. This process, utilisation and storage (CCUS) technologies in countries called enhanced oil recovery (EOR), has been employed for

such as China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa decades, using a variety of injectable gases, including CO2, will allow conversion of conventional coal to a much allowing resource owners to squeeze more economic value cleaner resource. from existing oil deposits than is possible with conventional

In fact, the Fifth Assessment Report of the oil production techniques alone. When ‘anthropogenic CO2‘ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes injection is used, this process simultaneously sequesters that most climate mitigation scenarios aimed at limiting carbon emissions that would have otherwise been emitted temperature change to 2ºC rely on the availability and to the atmosphere. widespread deployment of carbon capture and storage Alternatively, depending on local geologic conditions,

(CCS) technologies in the power and industrial sectors. the captured CO2 can be mixed with nitrogen (N2, available Furthermore, the IEA ﬁnds that if CCS is removed from from the air separation unit that is part of the oxy- the list options in the energy sector, the capital investment combustion technology application) and injected into deep,

needed to meet the same CO2 emissions constraint unmineable coal seams. increases by 40%.2 According to the IEA, 70% of all CCS in The injection of compressed gases produces additional 2050 will need to be in non-OECD countries, where energy methane. This process is referred to as enhanced coal- demand is growing and fossil fuels remain the principal bed methane (ECBM) recovery. The additional methane energy resource. produced by ECBM in a developing country could be SPONSORED FEATURE

substituted for coal in electricity production or for natural gas that would otherwise need to be imported at high cost. Enhanced coalbed methane recovery

A combined injection of the proper ratios of CO2 and

N2, with both gases produced close to the ECBM injection site, can possibly improve ECBM recovery rates and economics, as demonstrated in several initial R&D projects in the US and Canada. Moreover, commercially proﬁtable ECBM can be done in this way at sites with favourable reservoir and geological conditions.

CO2 utilisation: economic beneﬁts and mitigation potential The cost of EOR depends on the details of local economic and geologic conditions. The value of EOR depends on the internationally traded crude oil price. To implement EOR, a country needs to have oil ﬁelds close to an industrial facility or a power plant able to generate a steady stream of concentrated CO2. Alternatively, a long-distance CO2 pipeline infrastructure could also support this industry. Projections developed by Advanced Resources International (ARI) for the National Energy Technology

Laboratory indicate that 19 billion metric tons of CO2 will need to be purchased by CO2-EOR operators to recover 66 billion barrels of economically recoverable oil in the

US. Research done by ARI for the IEA’s Greenhouse Gas International, Inc. Resources © Advanced Programme indicate that as much as 43 billion barrels of oil can be technically recoverable from the application of development and enhance energy security by replacing Footnotes:

CO2-EOR in China’s large oil basins, and would sequester at imports and expanding the use of untapped domestic 1 International Energy least 12 billion metric tons of CO2. resources. Agency - World Similarly, with ECBM recovery, the cost is very Industrialised countries are moving to underwrite Energy Outlook 2014, sensitive to both the geology of the local coal seam and the incremental costs for first-of-a-kind larger scale Executive Summary. the distance between the unmineable seam and the CO2 commercial demonstrations of CCUS technologies, and 2 International ‘source’ facility. The benefits of creating a new resource of emerging economies are considering being ‘host’ sites Energy Agency - clean-burning natural gas from previously unexploitable for these demonstrations. The Green Climate Fund can Energy Technology coal deposits can be quite significant. For example, ARI be instrumental to CCUS technology implementation in Perspectives 2012, estimates there are 70 to 90 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of emerging economies. Wider CCUS technology deployment Executive Summary. coal-bed methane (CBM) in place in India, of which 20 will reduce overall cost of carbon capture technologies TCF are recoverable with ‘conventional’ CBM, and another and will thus achieve better public acceptance of CCUS/ 15-18 TCF are potentially recoverable with ‘enhanced’ CCS-based clean energy strategies. CCUS technologies can

CBM, while storing billions of tons of CO2 safely provide win-win options for developing countries, fuelling underground, and simultaneously generating signiﬁcant economic growth and other national development priorities additional revenue. while enhancing energy security, engaging these countries CCUS technologies, in the context of EOR or ECBM proactively in protecting their local environment while recovery, can thus reduce the ﬁscal burden of clean energy ensuring the stability of our shared global atmosphere.

About Jupiter Oxygen Corporation

Jupiter Oxygen Corporation (JOC) has developed technologies for industrial energy efficiency and cost effective carbon capture from fossil fuel power plants. Jupiter Oxygen has worked for a decade with experts from the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) of the US Department of Energy to develop clean fossil energy solutions, with a focus on retrofitting existing coal fired power plants. JOC’s high flame temperature oxy- combustion technology, combined with the NETL’s Integrated Pollutant Removal™ system, enables the capture of 95% -100% of CO2, and the elimination of key pollutants (NOx, SOx, PM, mercury). JOC holds and maintains patent rights to this joint clean technology development. JOC’s unique technologies can be a critical part of strategic alliances for the financing and management of successful carbon capture and utilisation projects. Jupiter Oxygen is engaged in demonstration project activities in the US, China, India and Mexico. www.jupiteroxygen.com 94 REMEDIES © Wolfgang Rattay/Reuters © Wolfgang

The new power generation

The reality of climate change demands that we generate our future energy in a clean, sustainable way. What are the technologies on offer, and can they meet the planet’s ever-growing energy needs?

By Robin Bedilion, Senior Technical Leader, Linden, the combined heat and power plant in Hanover, to 136 Gt of CO2e by 2100. Significantly Germany. The plant is powered with natural gas and Technology Innovation Program, Electric decarbonising the global energy system produces 255 MW electrical and 185 MW district Power Research Institute will require GHG emission reductions in heating at an efficiency factor of 90 per cent a number of different sectors, including reenhouse gas (GHG) emissions industrial, buildings, transportation, have been steadily increasing electricity generation and land use. systems or the use of electric vehicles. A Gsince the industrial revolution While decarbonisation can occur in all number of studies have been conducted to and reached 50 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon of these sectors, the electricity sector holds investigate various policies, technologies dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2010. In the significant potential. This is especially true and costs associated with decarbonising the absence of climate policy that limits GHG when electricity generated from low- or energy system in the 21st century to achieve emissions, global energy economy and non-carbon sources is used to replace high- climate stabilisation targets. The Energy integrated assessment models estimate carbon-intensity fuels in other sectors, such Modeling Forum (EMF) Study 27 compared that global GHG emissions could reach 90 as electrification of oil or gas-fired heating the results of 18 different energy economy

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and integrated assessment models. It integrated gasification combined cycle cost and energy penalty of the technology examined the effect that technology cost and (IGCC) plants are under construction and and competitive market conditions. availability assumptions have on the feasibility in early years of operation. Natural gas-fired combustion turbine of meeting climate policy goals that limit PC plant efficiencies have increased over (CT) and combined-cycle (NGCC) power atmospheric GHG concentrations to 450 or the years as improvements in materials plants are mature generation technologies, 550 parts per million (ppm) of CO2e. for boilers and steam turbines and representing just under a quarter of The study compared a scenario that understanding of cycle water chemistry have the electricity generated worldwide in assumed a full suite of technology options resulted in steam conditions with higher 2012. CTs have the unique distinction of for deployment for climate mitigation, temperatures and pressures. This increase relatively reliable and efficient performance including carbon capture and storage in efficiency reduces the amount of fuel throughout the duty spectrum of power (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind and burned and pollutants emitted for the same plant operation. NGCCs demonstrate bioenergy, with scenarios that limit the amount of electricity generated. some of the highest efficiencies currently availability of certain technologies. For IGCC plants have efficiencies that are attainable along with high availability. example, in some scenarios CCS does similar to supercritical PC plants, but the While the combustion of natural gas not become commercially available, new removal of pollution-forming constituents emits only about half the amount of CO2 nuclear power is not deployed due to public prior to combustion can allow IGCC plants as coal combustion, under stringent carbon opposition, wind and solar integration to meet very stringent air emission standards. constraint scenarios NGCC units might is constrained, or bioenergy production Advances in gas clean-up technology, oxygen also require CCS, resulting in increased is restricted due to concerns about food separation techniques and high-temperature capital costs and decreased plant efficiency. supply, conflict or water stress – as well as gas turbines are expected to continue to The R&D targeted at reducing cost and combinations of these scenarios. improve the efficiency of IGCC plants while improving efficiency of post-combustion Under any technology scenario, enacting reducing their cost. CCS for coal-fired plants would equally climate stabilisation policies results in costs benefit NGCC plants. that are higher than a baseline scenario of Coal and gas doing nothing. However, the results of all Even with efficiency improvements, for Nuclear of the models indicate that the more limited coal-fired plants to continue to operate in a Nuclear power is a mature technology the technology choices available, the more decarbonised world, CCS (capturing CO2, representing approximately 11 per cent of costly the policy implementation will be, either from the synthesis gas of an IGCC electricity worldwide. Nuclear plants do not especially when trying to reach the more before combustion or from the flue gas emit GHGs or other air pollutants, but the stringent goal of 450 ppm of CO2e. In of a PC after combustion, and storing it waste generated by nuclear plants requires scenarios where CCS is not available and in underground so that it is not emitted to safe storage and disposal. scenarios where the combination of solar, the atmosphere) must be included on any A long-term strategy for high-level wind and bioenergy deployment is limited, new coal plants and, likely, retrofitted on nuclear waste remains unresolved in many policy costs can be between one and a half and four times as high as the scenario with the full portfolio of technologies. It is important to have a full portfolio of low-carbon- When all technologies are limited such generation technologies available for future deployment that there is no deployment of CCS or new nuclear power and constrained deployment of solar, wind and bioenergy, none of the existing plants. Applying CCS to a coal- countries. While new nuclear construction models were able to reach a solution for fired plant is both expensive and energy in the US has been stalled until recent years, meeting the 450 ppm of CO2e target. intensive, increasing plant cost while countries such as Japan, Finland, China and This highlights the importance of having decreasing plant output. France have continued to build new plants. a full portfolio of low-carbon-generation Research and development (R&D) However, the events at the Fukushima technologies available for future deployment. continues on several promising Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant following improvements, such as alternative sorbents the Japanese earthquake and tsunami in Current and future generation and membrane separation that are hoped 2011 have led some countries, such as technologies will achieve significant reductions of costs Germany, to reconsider their continuing use Over 40 per cent of the world’s electricity and energy penalties. The timeline and scale of nuclear power. was generated by coal-fired power plants of commercial adoption of CCS within the Advanced nuclear reactors based on in 2012. Pulverised coal (PC) units provide power industry depends on a number of more advanced fuel cycles are currently nearly all coal-fired capacity generated factors, including the implementation of CO2 under development and are envisioned to globally, while the first commercial-scale regulations and policies, reductions in the have higher efficiency, reduced high-level

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waste, lower waste management costs and reduced amounts of ﬁssile material requiring security due to proliferation concerns. These reactors could possibly be capable of supporting high-temperature

hydrogen production, water desalination Del Pozo/Reuters © Marcelo and other high-temperature process heat applications as well.

Bioenergy Bioenergy is also a commercially available technology, serving as a dispatchable renewable power resource with the ability to operate at baseload (the minimum amount of power that a utility must make available to its customers). Future growth in bioenergy generation will be influenced strongly by resource management development and resource competition, energy and climate policies, and the pace of progress in advanced fuels and technologies. In most analyses, biofuels are assumed to be a carbon-neutral feedstock, with As the installation of wind farms ‘Solucar’, the concentrating solar power (CSP) plant near Seville, Spain. An advantage of CSP is its ability CO2 emitted during combustion being continues to increase, additional scrutiny to store energy using thermal storage reabsorbed as new biofuels grow. When is being paid to grid integration and the bioenergy is combined with CCS (BECCS) unique challenges that the variability and and the CO2 emissions from the carbon- uncertainty in wind power output place of CSP plants has declined significantly. neutral feedstock are sequestered, this on the grid, demanding additional system However, a distinguishing attribute of technology has potential for negative CO2 flexibility and load-following from other CSP compared to PV is the ability to use emissions. As with other technologies with generation assets. High penetration of wind thermal energy storage to capture and store CCS, efficiency improvements and cost energy will have power system impacts heat produced in the solar field to generate reductions will be critical to commercial that have to be managed through proper steam for the steam cycle at later times deployment moving forward. interconnection, transmission planning and when the electricity is needed, removing system and market operations. intermittency concerns and making it Wind and solar Solar technologies include both a dispatchable generation technology. Wind capacity has expanded rapidly photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar Efforts to decrease the cost of CSP include worldwide in recent years, driven by tax power (CSP). The cost of PV modules the development of higher temperature incentives, renewable generation targets has fallen rapidly in recent years and is working fluids and larger plant sizes, in and declining capital costs. While major expected to continue with improvements addition to advances in manufacturing and wind turbine components are considered in PV design and manufacturing processes. construction. to be mature, the technology continues to There are also opportunities to reduce the evolve and improve with larger turbines and cost of system components and design, and The need for continued R&D higher hub heights to take advantage of less engineering and installation costs for the A full portfolio of low-carbon technology favourable wind resources. Offshore wind overall PV system. options is essential for meeting aggressive is a less mature technology but continues As a result, PV has been the primary decarbonisation goals at the lowest cost to expand, with the majority of global solar technology installed in recent years possible. All of the technologies described installations currently in Europe. throughout the world. However, similar above can contribute to this goal, but all Offshore farms take advantage of the to wind, PV poses a challenge of variable require continued R&D to decrease costs, stronger and steadier wind resources at and uncertain output that will continue increase efficiency and improve integration sea, though turbines must withstand the to require thoughtful advances in system into the existing energy system. Investments impact of waves and harsher conditions design and integration technologies. in R&D activities now have the potential than onshore turbines and require undersea With the dramatic fall in PV prices in to significantly decrease the impact of electric cables. recent years, planning and construction decarbonisation policies in the future.

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Forests: a natural solution to climate change

From carbon source to carbon sink: how protecting, managing and restoring the world’s forests can help the climate and communities

By Zhang Xinsheng, President, International Union for Conservation of Nature

he risks climate change poses to humankind are tremendous, and the Tchallenges of mitigating the rise in global temperatures are well documented. Our success in limiting climate change to less than 2°C depends on the actions we take, as individuals and as a global community. But we are not in this alone. Natural systems and nature-based solutions are already helping to mitigate risks from natural disasters such as ﬂooding and droughts caused by climate change. Similar actions can help mitigate climate change itself. In fact, halting the loss and degradation of natural systems and promoting their restoration have the potential to contribute over one third of the total climate change mitigation that scientists say is required by 2030. Unfortunately, over the last few centuries, vast forest areas have been cleared, including some of the most biologically rich habitats on Earth, as demand for agriculture and forest products has grown with the human population. Today, around 30 per cent of global forest cover has been completely cleared and a further 20 per cent has been degraded. Deforestation and forest degradation now account for around 24 per cent of total global emissions, more than the entire global transportation sector. In this light,

Deforestation of primary and secondary rainforest

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land use is a signiﬁcant part of the problem contributing to climate change, but forests and forest landscapes can also be some of our best solutions. To maximise climate beneﬁts from forests, we need to keep intact more of the forests we have, manage more sustainably the forests we use, and restore more of the ones we have lost.

Positive trend In recent years, there have been many reasons to be optimistic that forest trends can change, and in some cases are changing, for the better. While as many as 13 million hectares of forest were converted to other uses or lost through natural causes each year in the last decade, the previous decade lost 16 million hectares per year. Today, more and more consumers are demanding forest products from sustainable sources, and an increasing number of major palm oil, timber, paper and other forest product corporations are beginning the conversion to deforestation-free supply chains. In addition to creating and maintaining protected areas and launching initiatives toward more sustainable management, many countries, subnational governments and private landowners are restoring © Lunae Parracho/Reuters

restoring 150 million hectares of degraded With the threats from climate change already proving forest lands by 2020. At the United Nations Climate Summit in September 2014, a very real, momentum is building behind efforts to protect, broader group of global leaders expanded sustainably manage and restore the world’s forests that goal to 350 million hectares by 2030, an area greater than the size of India. The benefit of forest landscape restoration to our climate is clear. Achieving degraded forest lands. This helps take adaptation and resilience through landscape this new and ambitious 350 million hectare pressure off healthy, intact forests and restoration. El Salvador, for example, has a goal could sequester between 0.6 and 1.7 reduce emissions from deforestation and new National Program for the Restoration gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent forest degradation. And forest landscape of Ecosystems and Rural Landscapes that each year. That is roughly equivalent to the restoration is just beginning to realise its specifically aims for this type of adaptation- Russian Federation’s total net greenhouse potential on a global level. based mitigation. gas emissions in a year. And the benefits of The opportunity for restoration is Along with breaking the spiral of using this nature-based solution to climate tremendous. The Global Partnership on deforestation and forest degradation, change go far beyond just mitigating carbon Forest Landscape Restoration has estimated restoring these lands across the globe would and helping countries adapt to a warmer that around two billion hectares of degraded bring untold benefits to people and the climate. Landscape restoration can help land across the world – an area the size of planet. To inspire more forest landscape boost economies and create jobs, enhance South America – offer opportunities for restoration globally, the International food security and increase crop yields, and landscape restoration. Many countries Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) improve both water quality and quantity. are already adopting a climate mitigation and the German Government launched the In addition to capturing about a sixth paradigm that focuses on enhancing Bonn Challenge in 2011, setting a goal for of the carbon necessary to close the

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food security. In the late 1990s, smallholder benefit. Similarly, the ways in which forest farmers in Niger showed how it can be done. conservation impacts local communities They used a forest landscape restoration will affect its overall benefits for the approach to restore more than five million climate. Across the globe, more than 1.6 hectares of semi-desert into productive billion people depend on forests for food open woodlands. The higher tree density and medicines, for fuel, and for their jobs in these woodlands led to increases of more and livelihoods. Of those, approximately than 100 kilograms per hectare in crop 60 million indigenous people rely almost yields, producing enough cereals to feed an entirely on forests for their livelihoods. additional 2.5 million people a year. The success of any forest climate actions, Back in the US, New York City famously and the permanence in any emissions used a ‘watershed approach’ to avoid $16 reductions that come from them, are billion in water treatment costs through the largely dependent on the extent to which restoration and preservation of its forested they recognise the rights and interests watershed. China is now piloting a forest of those forest communities and help to landscape restoration approach to help improve or sustain livelihoods. With the meet the drinking water needs of nearly 21 threats from climate change already proving million people. very real, momentum is building behind efforts to protect, sustainably manage International targets and restore the world’s forest landscapes. In addition to the direct benefits, restoring Commitments to the Bonn Challenge landscapes under the Bonn Challenge have nearly tripled in the last year. With would make a significant contribution the New York Declaration on Forests, an towards meeting international targets. It unprecedented collection of world leaders is one implementation vehicle for the goal from governments, the private sector and of achieving land degradation neutrality, civil society announced the first global adopted at the 2012 UN Conference on timeline to slow and end forest loss and Sustainable Development. significantly increased the ambition of the It also contributes to both the Bonn Challenge restoration target. Convention for Biological Diversity Thanks to new and renewed commitments A Ka’apor Indian warrior stands near a burning logging truck during a jungle expedition to search ecosystem restoration target (Target of financial resources from governments such for and expel loggers from the Alto Turiacu Indian 15 agreed in Aichi in 2010) and the as Norway, Germany, the United Kingdom territory in the Amazon basin, Brazil UN Framework Convention on and others, this momentum behind using Climate Change (UNFCCC) Reducing healthy forests to combat climate change is Emissions from Deforestation and reaching every level – from top government emissions gap, IUCN analysis has found Forest Degradation (REDD+) goals for policymakers to corporate board rooms and that achieving the original 150 million sustainable management of forests and local communities. Forests, through their hectare Bonn target could add $85 billion enhancement of forest carbon stocks. many benefits for the climate, sustainable to local and national economies and $6 For these or any climate mitigation efforts development and livelihoods, are becoming a billion in additional crop yields – each year. to meet the desired long-term goals, they no-regrets part of the solutions at every level. Such contributions go a long way in a still- must protect both biodiversity and the rights As the world moves toward a climate recovering global economy. and interests of the people they impact. It agreement in Paris this December and One programme in the United States is not enough to just stop deforestation and beyond, it is imperative that national involving 23 forest landscapes generated restore degraded landscapes – it must be leaders work to implement the New York $290 million in labour income, creating done in the right way. Declaration on Forests, sustain forest climate and maintaining more than 4,500 jobs in Biodiversity helps forests to resist change financing, and include forest and land use the process. Meanwhile, the Guatemalan and recover following disturbances, so in their Intended Nationally Determined government designed its national forest for forests to continue their contribution Contributions under the UNFCCC. In incentive scheme to generate over 900,000 to climate change mitigation, they must doing so, these leaders will show the way jobs and directly add $55 million to the maintain their biodiversity. For this that nature, and in particular forests, can and country’s rural economy. reason, biodiversity conservation is a core must be part of the solution to keeping the Meeting that same 150 million hectare principle of nature-based solutions and climate within the globally accepted two- Bonn Challenge target could also improve forest landscape restoration, as well as a co- degree temperature increase.

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By David Banister, Director, Transport The road to Studies Unit, University of Oxford ransport is central to society. Production, business, leisure, sustainable transport Tas well as everyday activities, all depend on movement. Global mobility has been built on efﬁcient aviation and The transport sector stands out in its lack of progress in reducing shipping networks, enhanced by the new emissions. Radical new approaches are required if the sector communications technologies. At the more local level, there have also been substantial is to achieve the necessary 60 per cent reduction by 2050 increases in mobility using all forms of © Aly Song/Reuters

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transport as income levels have risen. Cars CO2 emissions. It now accounts for almost places a new imperative on effective policy and trucks are a global business, involving a quarter of global CO2, contributing about actions in cities. motor manufacturers, the oil industry, many 8.2 gigatonnes in 2013, making transport the The Sustainable Mobility Paradigm suppliers, energy providers, the construction second-leading source of CO2 emissions. If (SMP) is intended to shift thinking by business, support and maintenance providers the sector were to make a real contribution to encouraging lower levels of mobility and and others. Transport, therefore, plays a avoiding a 2ºC increase in global temperature shorter distances within cities, as well as substantial role in economies, allowing and substantial sea-level rise, it would need promoting more efficient low-carbon the distribution of goods and services and to achieve a 60 per cent reduction in CO2 transport. It is also concerned with the providing significant employment. emissions by 2050 (on 1990 levels). creation of spaces and localities that are While other sectors of the economy have attractive and affordable, as neighbourhood decarbonised, transport has continued to Unprecedented change quality is central to sustainable mobility. increase its consumption of energy and its Yet the Organisation for Economic Co- The SMP focuses not just on the operation and Development’s International measures that can be used, but the process Transport Forum (OECD ITF) predicts by which alternatives are discussed, so that massive growth in the transport sector over there is an understanding of the rationale the next 40 years. It sees the number of cars behind the policy changes and an increased and light trucks growing from one billion likelihood that behavioural change follows. globally to 2.5 billion by 2050. And given Public acceptability is central to successful expected levels of growth in GDP, even the implementation of major change, and it OECD ITF’s most cautious estimates are should involve community and stakeholder for a doubling of travel to 2050, from about commitment to the process of discussion, 6,000 km per person per year to over 11,000 decision-making and implementation. The km, with a corresponding 80 per cent SMP (Figure 1) emphasises slower travel, increase in CO2 emissions. reasonable travel times and travel time This global picture is unsustainable. It is reliability. further compounded by other detrimental Technological innovation, including new factors, such as transport fatalities – 1.2 lower-carbon fuels, more efficient engine

The UN predicts that the number of megacities will expand from 29 in 2014 to 37 by 2025. This places a new imperative on effective policy actions in cities

million killed and more than 50 million technologies and a range of improvements injured globally each year; transport in materials, aerodynamics, tyres and control congestion; and the reduced quality of life systems, forms an important part of any city and health from other transport pollutants, carbon-reduction package. principally particulate matter that contributes The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate to premature deaths, and nitrogen oxides and Change says innovation could generate volatile organic compounds that contribute to between 40 and 70 per cent reductions in car ground-level ozone pollution. fuel consumption, between 30 and 50 per cent The speed and scale of change taking reductions in goods vehicle fuel consumption, place is unprecedented. The UN says that about a 50 per cent improvement in aviation the global urban population is rising by 60 efficiency, and between five and 30 per cent million a year, and predicts that the number reductions in shipping fuel use over the of megacities (over 10 million people) will period 2010-35. But these figures may only expand from 29 in 2014 to 37 by 2025. This reflect the potential for improvement. On their own, they will not reach the target

Evening rush hour in central Shanghai, China. reduction levels for transport if growth A radical shift in thinking is required for policy in transport demand continues. At best, on, and public perception of, urban mobility technological improvements will maintain

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Figure 1: the Sustainable Mobility Paradigm

1 TRIPS 2 DISTANCE 3 MODE 4 EFFICIENCY // Substitute or // Shorten trip // Use of public // Load factors not make trips lengths transport // Fuels // Land use // Walk and cycle planning // Efficiency // Design

SEVEN MAIN COMPONENTS OF THE SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY PARADIGM

1 Reasonable travel time – not minimisation of travel time 5 Lower levels of pollution and noise from transport, and greater energy efficiency 2 Seeing travel as a valued activity – not only a derived demand 6 More efficient management and use of infrastructure and 3 Reducing the need to travel – through distance reduction and working remotely capacity through higher occupancy and load factors, and through pricing 4 Achieving signiﬁcant modal shift – to walking, cycling and public transport 7 Increasing the quality of places and spaces within cities

Source: Banister, 2008

overall carbon emission levels in transport at locked in and the rebound effects – where in addition to the imperative of low (or current levels. people travel more if they think they are zero) carbon. In the SMP, the focus is on promoting doing it more efficiently or sustainably – Achieving sustainable mobility requires behavioural change, through reducing the minimised. demand management to allocate scarce street need to travel, shorter travel distances and The shared transport concept combines space to different users by price or regulation the greater use of public transport, walking the need for efficient and modern public (or a combination of both), so that priority and cycling. Governments can encourage transport systems (such as bus rapid transit users and uses can be made of it. This will sustainable mobility through policies such systems, trams and metro) with new forms of vary by time of day and day of week. as increased investment in public transport, In both the passenger and freight sectors, priority for walking and cycling, pricing there is substantial empty running, with for access and parking and urban planning A low-carbon transport many cars having only one (rather than four) (including higher densities, mixed-use model shifts away passengers and trucks travelling around with developments, transport development areas little or no load. New apps can match loads, focused on high-rise development around from current thinking times and directions so that spare capacity is accessible public transport interchanges, and about individualism utilised (similar to how yield management high-quality local design and use of street has been used effectively in the aviation and space). Policymakers can also set slower speed and ownership rail sectors). limits and consolidate freight distribution, A low-carbon transport model shifts away as well as promote a range of ‘soft’ measures from current thinking about individualism such as local-level initiatives to encourage car ownership where vehicles are shared rather and ownership towards new forms of sharing, car leasing, bike schemes and better than owned. This has already happened with collaborative consumption and sharing access travel awareness. cycle hire schemes in many cities, and it is to transport. Transport is seen as a service to All of these policy interventions can be now being extended to small, slow electric which people buy access when they need it, assembled into policy packages that are vehicles (including electric bikes) that are in the form that is best for them at that point designed to work together in mutually rented. Many cities do not have room for in time. The intention would be to provide a supporting ways. This means the intended high levels of car-based mobility, so should quality door-to-door service that is accessible benefits of a change are more likely to be be concerned with efficient use of space, and affordable to all.

CLIMATE 2020 REMEDIES 103 © Arpad Kurucz/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Agency/Getty © Arpad Kurucz/Anadolu

Government has frequently struggled to meet Mitigation measures involve: reducing the traffic-free spaces where people want to spend popular demands for more sustainable transport. Above, thousands of cyclists demonstrate during transport-intensity of the economy (known time and money – this is the ‘sustainable the ‘I Bike Budapest’ event in Hungary, April 2015 as ‘decoupling’); reducing long-distance city’. But there are also real difficulties in journeys (for example, by encouraging achieving such a vision, as it requires the more use of tele- and video conferencing); agreement of many different agencies. With Long-distance travel (greater than 300 km) dematerialisation (where technology is cities expanding at their current rate, the makes up a relatively small proportion of all transferred so that production can be local); institutional and organisational structures travel, but has a major impact on emissions ensuring that load factors are high (such as are being overwhelmed. Good governance - some estimates put the figure as high as yield management and load consolidation); needs the support of people and businesses, 75 per cent of all transport-related CO2 and moving towards greater energy and must be able to operate efficiently and emissions in the 28 EU countries. efficiency (using larger vessels and planes). effectively in the new megacities. The strongest growth in CO2 emissions Underlying the new ideas and technologies Beyond the city, there is the global picture, (1997–2012) has come from aviation (up 41 is the need for effective pricing across all with long-distance travel and lengthy supply per cent) and maritime transport (up 14 per forms of transport so that users pay the full chains, where any unit reduction in the level cent), while long-distance road transport costs of externalities (including CO2) and of carbon emissions is more than outweighed increased its emissions by just three per cent. have clear efficiency incentives. by ever-greater demand for travel and goods. Even though there is some debate over the Many cities have already taken the lead in Overall, the prognosis for substantial accuracy of these figures, the trends are clear promoting active transport, such as walking carbon reductions in transport is not good. A and strong action is required to improve and cycling, as part of a healthy lifestyle, summary would be: excellent opportunities efficiency, including, for example, the removal and the power of successful demonstration in cities, good possibilities in the megacities, of subsidies on aviation fuel and raising the may become infectious. In several of them, some potential for maritime transport, but quality standards on shipping fuels. certain areas have been rejuvenated into few opportunities in aviation.

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The challenge of urbanisation

How can the development of cities become instrumental in achieving a zero-carbon economy?

By Peter Madden, Chief Executive, with its increased demand for food, fuel and of long supply chains bringing them water, Future Cities Catapult consumer goods – brings with it increased energy and food – making them much production and growth in carbon emissions. more vulnerable to climate change. Cities ur future is urban. The UN While cities do provide an economy will therefore be both the major causes of predicts that 66 per cent of us will of scale that can improve efficiency, carbon emissions but also at huge risk from Olive in cities by 2050, up from just evidence suggests that alone isn’t enough the impacts of climate change. 30 per cent in 1950. This is the biggest to counter their increasing carbon output. That means that city leaders must rural-to-urban migration in history and In a 2013 study, Jukka Heinonen, an consider, now more carefully than ever, how it’s inexorably linked to climate change – associate professor at the University of city products and services are organised and bringing with it both opportunities and Iceland’s faculty of Civil and Environmental implemented for their growing populations. challenges that city leaders must tackle. Engineering, found that while “direct They must also work out how to mitigate the With billions of people flowing into emissions from transportation and housing impacts climate change will have. cities, there’s a swelling urban middle class – energy slightly decrease with higher density, There’s no time to waste. Many Australian particularly in new cities in Asia and Africa the reductions can be easily overridden by and Californian cities, for instance, are – with a thirst for consumption. That’s a sources of indirect emissions.” already facing challenges in providing perfectly natural by-product of cities with At the same time, these new city dwellers drinking water supply for their citizens. growing economies, but such a lifestyle – also find themselves concentrated at the end Elsewhere, cities on the coast of Florida and

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Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, an example of the ﬂow of population to cities that is a particular feature currently shaping Africa and Asia

technology to become more sustainable. Many of our projects are already demonstrating that such collaborative work can provide information and systems that will help cities face up to climate-related issues. With Intel’s Collaborative Research Institute, The Royal Parks and others, for instance, we’ve installed low-cost sensor networks that measure air quality, water quality and human activity. With Microsoft and Guide Dogs we developed a new prototype device that uses 3D soundscapes to help the visually impaired navigate the

Cities will have to be at the front line in the ﬁght… they are increasingly seen as standalone political entities © UN Photo/Basile Zoma Zoma © UN Photo/Basile

Pakistan suffer a different water problem: to make transit convenient yet green; and city’s streets. And our Cities Lab has drawn rising sea levels threaten to destroy millions encouraging behavioural change among their together data from 135 different sources, to of dollars’ worth of infrastructure. In the citizens to lead more sustainable lifestyles. understand London’s demographics based future, an increasing proportion of the Such initiatives needn’t mean tearing down on how we live – not where we live – in population will become directly vulnerable to existing infrastructure and starting from order to better meet citizen demands. the impact of climate change. scratch. Instead they can be achieved through Such examples are just the start. Cities Cities will have to be at the front line careful planning, assisted by detailed analysis now generate huge streams of data, in the ﬁght. In a globalising economy, of existing city data, and a more integrated with smart phones, cars and buildings cities are increasingly seen as standalone approach that allows existing systems to work increasingly sensing and recording political entities, with the leadership and together more effectively. information about their surroundings. responsibility to mobilise their population That’s something we strongly believe Cites must make use of this to help them in the face of threats such as climate change. in at Future Cities Catapult. Set up to understand how citizens interact with Some cities have started working together bring businesses, universities and city infrastructures, identify inefﬁciencies in order to make the most of their new- leaders together, we accelerate urban and streamline services – whether that be found economic and political freedoms. ideas to market that will help our cities to optimising energy provision or improving New groupings of mayors are talking about meet these future challenges. From our the way people plan their journeys when joint action, sharing best practice through Urban Innovation Centre in London, we using public transport. organisations like the International Council help innovators turn ideas into working Some cities are, of course, already for Local Environmental Initiatives and prototypes that can be tested in real urban making positive strides in this direction. C40, a global network of megacities tackling settings and help spread them to cities Copenhagen’s cycle-friendly infrastructure, greenhouse gas emissions. across the world. With cutting-edge Singapore’s impressive water and transport As well as advocating, they are leading facilities and a ‘Cities Lab’ that provides systems, and Hong Kong’s impressively low the shift to cleaner energy systems to reduce data analysis, modelling and visualisation, energy intensity per capita are all wonderful emissions and air pollution; developing smart we can also help cities make more examples. Now, we need every other city to transport systems and active travel initiatives informed decisions about how they can use play catch up.

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Green retroﬁts make economic, social and environmental sense Buildings and the building sector are one of the primary contributors to GHG emissions, but the solution shouldn’t just focus on new builds: upgrading existing buildings also offers huge potential

By Bruce Kerswill, Chairman, need it most. This case study illustrates why councils are helping the property and World Green Building Council simple retrofits should be considered an construction industry to collaborate with international investment priority. governments to drive green retrofitting n 2011, ahead of the COP17 talks in While green buildings can deliver on programmes, proving the business case and Durban, 30 low-cost houses in a small the triple bottom line for companies, building capacity, while advocating the range Icul-de-sac in Durban’s historic township they also generate society-wide and of benefits that retrofitting can deliver. of Cato Manor gained a green upgrade. economic benefits that can contribute to A defining feature of any green building Led by the Green Building Council ‘macro’ priorities of governments – such project is reduced energy consumption of South Africa (GBCSA), in association as climate change mitigation, energy – and the consequent savings on energy with the World Green Building Council security, minimising spend on new power costs. The WGBC’s Business Case for Green (WGBC), and primarily funded by the infrastructure and reducing dependence Building (2013) found that reductions in a British and Australian High Commissions, on oil imports. Arguably, buildings offer green building’s energy use compared to a the project aimed to demonstrate the the single largest opportunity to reduce conventional code-compliant building range range of socio-economic, health and emissions – and at the least cost. from 25-30 per cent (based on buildings environmental benefits that can be captured through resource-efficient interventions in low-income houses. Green building programmes can reduce carbon emissions, Being deeply involved in the project, I saw cut costs, create jobs, boost health and wellbeing, and first-hand how green retrofits can improve people’s quality of life, while keeping my improve the resilience of entire communities and cities country’s development on a low-carbon pathway. Green interventions, such as solar water heaters, insulated ceilings, heat Scaling-up energy efficiency in buildings certified by the Leadership in Energy and insulation cookers and efficient indoor can also help governments to deliver on Environmental Design – LEED – rating lighting, were found to deliver a far higher social priorities such as employment and systems in the US) to up to 50 per cent return on investment to the public purse health, while maintaining economic growth (based on a similar study of green buildings than similar investments in new electricity and improving the quality of life in our cities. in New Zealand). Halving energy bills will generation capacity would. become even more attractive as energy costs In fact, if green retrofits similar to those A good news story continue to rise. at Cato Manor were undertaken for South Tackled the right way, green building The current evidence finds that energy Africa’s roughly three million existing programmes can reduce carbon emissions, savings for green building retrofits are government-developed low-cost houses, cut costs, create jobs, boost health and not as high as those for new builds, but the reduced consumption of electricity wellbeing, and improve the resilience are nevertheless substantial. For example, and water would save around 3.5 million of entire communities and cities. Green a study of buildings in Singapore found tonnes of carbon dioxide each year – as building councils are playing a central role buildings that underwent green retrofits j well as saving more than 250 million. The in this green transformation. Today, the made a subsequent saving of 17 per cent retrofit programme would create nearly WGBC has 100 national green building on energy costs. Transwestern, a private 40 million person days of work and put councils and more than 27,000 company real estate firm in the US, reports typical money back into the pockets of those who members around the world. Green building savings of up to 15 per cent on the utility

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governments’ design and implement national renovation strategies that many nations have so far struggled to deliver in accordance with European Union law. Eighty key organisations from 24 countries are taking part in BUILD UPON, an innovative two-year project, funded by the EU’s Horizon 2020 programme, that aims to drive the design and implementation of a long-term framework for scaling-up deep energy-efficient renovation in 13 countries. EU countries were required to deliver long-term renovation strategies to Brussels in accordance with the Energy Efficiency Directive by 30 April 2014, a deadline which most missed, with many of the strategies now in place falling short of the requirements of the Directive. Countries now have until 30 April 2017 to strengthen and resubmit their strategies to Brussels. With the European Commission’s ‘Energy Union’ placing a renewed focus on full implementation of EU energy efficiency in buildings law, the next two years will be crucial for countries to put in place an ambitious and feasible framework for deep renovation. Emilio Miguel Mitre, BUILD UPON’s Coordinator and Director of International Affairs at GBC España, has

© SAGBC said: “Governments across Europe have an extremely difficult task in having to define Residents outside their home in the Cato Manor implication for employers – one that is a strategy to scale-up energy-efficient township of Durban, South Africa, after the green retrofit many times larger than any other financial renovation, and provide the finance and savings associated with an efficiently instruments to help achieve this scale. bills on its managed properties that designed and operated building. A crucial ingredient missing in each have undergone energy performance Similarly, the landmark Heschong Mahone country at the moment is widespread upgrades. These retrofit measures range study of 21,000 students in the US found that buy-in to a common strategy. This is not from thermal envelope improvements, those who had the most daylighting in their just the responsibility of governments to improved controls and renewable energy classrooms progressed 20 per cent faster on deliver, but the responsibility of the public installations, through to upgrades of maths tests and 26 per cent faster on reading sector, private sector and civil society alike. lighting, heating and ventilation, and tests in one year than those with the least That strategy and buy-in is precisely what mechanical systems. amount. Similarly, students in classrooms BUILD UPON aims to deliver.” However, energy savings are just a small with the largest window areas were found to Retrofitting our buildings can power jobs part of the story. Health, Wellbeing and progress 15 per cent faster in maths and 24 and economic growth, but buildings don’t Productivity in Offices: The Next Chapter for per cent faster in reading. And the seminal renovate themselves. Green building councils Green Building (2014) finds improvements study by Ulrich found hospital stays reduced are uniquely placed to make this happen, in air quality alone can boost productivity by 8.5 per cent when people had good access and the WGBC understands implicitly that by around 10 per cent. When staff costs, to daylight and window views of nature. partnership is the new leadership. including salaries and benefits, typically Whether or not climate negotiations account for about 90 per cent of a business’s Partnership is the new leadership and emissions trading systems achieve their operating costs, what may appear a In March 2015, green building councils objectives, we must embrace retrofitting for modest improvement in employee health across Europe launched an ambitious its own sake – because it makes economic, j or productivity can have a huge financial 2.35 million project to support social and environmental sense.

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Eliminating food waste

To address the climate change challenge, we must prevent and reduce waste, from ﬁeld to fork

By Liz Goodwin, increased consumption. This will inevitably Chief Executive Officer, WRAP accelerate climate change if we continue to consume in the way we do today. on’t find a fault, find a However, there is hope. The UK remedy”, argued Henry Ford, government recently launched a new tool, “Dfounder of the Ford Motor the Global Calculator, which highlights Company. But as anyone who’s tried fixing that temperature increases can be limited something without first identifying the issue even with population growth and that will know, the corresponding remedy will be people can still prosper – but that we need hard to find. to make urgent wide-scale changes. Based Climate change is the ‘fault’ that we’ve on calculations from this tool, tackling food identified in our current system and we waste has the potential to curb growth in know that it poses a major threat. It remains global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. a complex issue that has divided opinions More than a third of all food produced and caused a furore of debate. But the globally never reaches the dinner table. world as we know it is changing. We need There is a pressing need to change the way remedies and we need them now. in which we produce and consume goods, So far, these remedies have traditionally and food waste must be an overarching focused on the symptoms of the problem, priority. There are social, economic and such as energy, burning fossil fuels and moral implications that relate to food waste. the preservation of natural habitats. But We live in a world where more than 800 these are consequences that result from million people are hungry, yet food is being other activity, such as production and squandered in vast quantities. Globally, food A girl walks amid the garbage from La Terminal food consumption of consumer goods – everyday waste equates to 1.3 billion tonnes a year. market in Guatemala City commodities on which the world relies. That enormous amount is hard to visualise, Rather than focus solely on the symptoms, but it’s enough to feed all the hungry people we need to turn our attention to the in the world – not once, but four times over. a report written by WRAP for the Global underlying causes of the climate change The environmental cost of producing Commission on Economy and Climate, problem. food is also astonishing. Globally, it’s it was estimated that by 2030 GHG estimated that food waste is responsible emissions could be reduced by up to one The need to act on food waste for 3.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide billion tonnes of CO2 through food waste We know that the world’s population is equivalent (CO2e) per year, taking into reductions alone. That’s equivalent to the expected to grow from seven billion now account production, harvest, transport, annual emissions of Germany. to over nine billion by 2050, and that packaging and disposal. Overall, food waste The 10-Year Framework Programme more than 40 per cent of those people are accounts for seven per cent of the world’s (10YFP) on Sustainable Consumption expected to join the middle classes. While GHG emissions. If food waste were a and Production established by the UN it is good news that many will have a better country, it would be the world’s third-largest Environment Programme (UNEP) standard of living, with that wealth comes carbon emitter after the USA and China. In demonstrates the need to accelerate the

CLIMATE 2020 REMEDIES 109 © Jorge Lopez/Reuters © Jorge move towards sustainable consumption approach identifies and addresses priority Food production and technology habits and, ultimately, lifestyles. One of areas across the supply chain, in relation The production of food can be resource the programmes within this framework is to a host of economic, environmental and intensive. For example, according to Friends the Sustainable Lifestyles and Education sustainability metrics. The aim is to create a of the Earth, a single chocolate bar can use Programme. Its mission is to foster the comprehensive approach to understanding as much as 2.5m2 in land requirements, and uptake of sustainable lifestyles as the and acting upon hotspots across supply 1,400 litres of water to produce. Foods are common norm around the world. chains – from field to fork. sourced globally, so food waste can have The 10YFP, together with the UNEP Analysing waste hotspots allows wider ramifications relating to its country and Society of Environmental Toxicology businesses, organisations and individuals of origin. For example, wasted food such and Chemistry’s Life Cycle Initiative, across the supply chain to identify high- as rice from Pakistan contributes to a small is supporting WRAP and our partner, wastage problem areas and diagnose amount of the avoidable water footprint thinkstep, in a global project that will and apply the known remedies. To make for UK food waste. However, because of bring together different methodologies, this happen, we need a holistic view, a dwindling local water supplies due to the including WRAP’s own, for analysing collaborative approach and a willingness to irrigation of crops using the Indus River, waste hotspots. This resource-efficient act around the world. the effect this has in terms of natural capital

j available within the country of production could save food producers in Europe 60 A man carries a fish to a refrigerator truck at the fish market on the outskirts of Lima, Peru. 25 per cent is much higher. It also causes damage to the billion annually. of food waste in the developing world could be surrounding mangrove forests, which are eliminated through better refrigeration known to capture carbon. Manufacture, retail and hospitality There is scope for technology to make In 2007, Coca-Cola rolled out its lightest- containers designed for refrigeration, to significant improvements. As much as 40 ever bottle – something that was achieved help consumers reduce food waste and keep per cent of food produced in developing without compromising quality or brand food fresher for longer. And a number of countries is wasted before it reaches the image. By optimising packaging in this retailers printed advice on packaging on market, according to the UN Food & way, Coca-Cola in the UK was able to use how to store leftovers or freeze food, and Agriculture Organization. The Institution approximately 1,400 fewer tonnes of PET introduced new packaging designs to help of Mechanical Engineers holds that up to plastic every year. prolong the use of food. half of fruit and vegetables are lost in sub- Supermarkets, brands and suppliers Food waste prevention efforts have also Saharan Africa and India. It is suggested have also made reductions in waste in led to increased redistribution. Over 80 per that about 25 per cent of food wastage in recent years. Leading members of the cent more food is now being redistributed the developing world could be eliminated grocery sector embarked on a collaborative from the grocery sector. The hospitality with better refrigeration equipment. voluntary agreement called the Courtauld sector, through the Hospitality and Food Other solutions to prevent waste upstream Commitment to explore ways to improve Service Agreement, has also increased include better machinery to harvest greater resource efficiency. Supermarket chain Asda, redistribution by almost a quarter. This is volumes of food while preventing bruising or a division of Walmart, increased the shelf food that would have otherwise gone to damage to crops, along with better protective life of over 1,500 products by implementing waste and is now, in some cases, being sent packaging. Financial services provider a more efficient delivery process. Heinz to disadvantaged people. The Think.Eat. Rabobank estimates that these measures introduced ‘Fridge Packs’, resealable Save guidance document launched last year

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was the first of its kind to provide practical to 2012. There is still a long way to go, and recover energy from food through steps to help governments, local authorities but this progress has been instrumental anaerobic digestion plants that can be used and businesses anywhere in the world find in developing an approach to reduce food to create renewable energy that is carbon ways to implement changes to reduce food waste, expertise that has been exported to neutral. A fifth of all UK GHG emission waste and save natural resources. parts of Canada, Australia and New Zealand. reductions from 2010-2013 were due to a Looking beyond the statistics there are reduction in emissions from landfill. This Household food waste, recycling and powerful stories. The campaign helps can be attributed to less biodegradable waste recovery people understand how to plan meals in going to landfill as a result of increased food In the UK, an area equivalent in size to advance, how to utilise and store excess food waste prevention measures and increased approximately two million rugby pitches and how to measure the right quantities of collections, for example. would be needed to grow all the food that’s food. I have heard of single mothers on low Ensuring that all the world’s people have thrown away from homes each year. But incomes struggling to feed their families. enough food is the vision of UN Secretary- progress has been made. In 2007, the Love But by making these small changes, it can General Ban Ki-moon’s Zero Hunger Food Hate Waste campaign was established, make a big impact on family’s lives. In Challenge. Given that it can play such a aiming to raise awareness and show how to some cases, family food budgets have been key role in mitigating climate change, it’s make simple, everyday practical changes that reduced by 80 per cent. something that needs to be acted upon. could make a big difference. Since it was Prevention and redistribution are the first We have an ethical, environmental and rolled out, food waste in the UK has been points of action, but when food is buried in economic obligation to end food waste. reduced by 21 per cent, saving consumers landfill sites, it creates methane, a GHG. We’ve identified the fault and we have the almost $20 billion over the five-year period However, there are opportunities to recycle remedy, so what are we waiting for?

Food security: the biggest taboo

The problem only about 12 new calories of chicken, 10 adds an extra ethical dimension to the We know that food waste is a scandal. In of pork, or 3 of beef. A 2013 FAO report consumption issue. wealthy nations, our dustbins are filled rightly points out that the feeding of with left-over meat, mouldy vegetables cereals to livestock could threaten food The solution and out of date yogurts. In struggling security by reducing the grain available for We need a dual-action solution: economies, small-scale farmers struggle human consumption. We can add in the O a reduction in meat consumption in to keep harvested crops in fair condition greenhouse gas emissions, environmental high-consuming populations; for lack of an insect or rodent proof, pollution and soil degradation resulting O a switch to pasture-rearing and feeding affordable grain store. Both these issues from this type of industrial animal rearing. smaller numbers of farm animals on are being recognised. What a catalogue of errors! forages, crop residues and (treated) The biggest taboo concerns the largest food waste. source of food waste on the planet: the The reality feeding of over a third of the world’s What drives this massive trade in These solutions will re-direct cereals cereals and most of its soya to industrially inefficiency? At the root lies our cultural to the hungry, help protect both the reared farm animals. And this while so and social desire to eat meat – and in environment and the wellbeing of many people are still malnourished and quantities that our ancestors would find animals and encourage healthier diets. downright hungry. It is only in the last year astonishing. Chicken is no longer an Governments and global bodies need to or two that global bodies have begun to occasional treat, but an everyday, throw- adopt policies to achieve such solutions focus on this issue – and no action has yet away fast food. The chickens themselves with urgency. been taken to resolve the problem. are bred for such fast growth that their legs have trouble supporting their body- By Joyce D’Silva, Ambassador, The science weight and millions go lame before their Compassion in World Farming A 2014 Chatham House paper describes slaughter at five or six weeks old. the feeding of cereals to animals as With pigs kept in isolation, “staggeringly inefficient”. A 2013 paper overcrowding in factory farms and many reports that for every 100 calories of dairy cows in unnatural zero-grazing grain that we feed to animals, we get units, the burden of animal suffering

By Camilla Toulmin, outgoing Director, International Institute for Environment Who should pay? The and Development

e must urgently cut greenhouse case for a carbon tax gas emissions (GHGs) if we are Wto live with a reasonably stable climate. The atmospheric space able to To move from fossil fuels to sustainable, clean energy without absorb further CO2 is contracting rapidly stiﬂing economic growth, governments will need to pick if we want to have a 50 per cent chance of staying below 2ºC average global warming. the right mix of policies. A carbon tax should be one of them At current rates of emissions, it is reckoned that we will use up all of this capacity by 2033.1 If we are to live up to the hoped-for ambition of the Paris climate summit this December, all options for achieving a big cut in emissions must be considered. There are multiple tools and measures to bring down GHGs. If used in combination,

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Satellite image of aircraft contrails over the and the ease of sourcing substitutes. Saudi Arabia, Libya, Algeria, Egypt, Bolivia, North Sea. Currently, aviation fuel for international flights is protected from taxation There are concerns that differing carbon Argentina, Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela. taxes between countries could risk ‘leakage’, Additionally, other countries, such as the where carbon-intensive companies will US, provide significant tax relief on oil they will be more effective than relying on move from high-tax areas to those with exploration and investment. any one single measure. While I am far from low taxation, taking jobs and investment Some argue that the establishment and being a market fundamentalist, a carbon tax with them, at little or no benefit to the distribution of quotas on emissions is a is a particularly powerful means to achieve global atmosphere. This risk is one reason simpler, more direct process than a carbon emission reductions. It gives a clear signal to why we need a global approach to cutting tax. A specific cut in GHG emissions can everyone that we must move rapidly from GHGs. However, a single global carbon tax be identified and responsibility distributed a high- to a low-carbon world. It ensures is unlikely in the immediate future, since globally, then cascaded to regional, national that ‘the polluter pays’ – an important countries face very different circumstances. and provincial jurisdictions. principle in addressing environmental The agreement and distribution of GHG externalities. And it builds confidence in Taking action cuts across nations underpins the UN our collective determination to create a Carbon taxes are currently levied by a Framework Convention on Climate Change low-carbon economy. The current slump number of governments, including China, process of negotiation between different in oil prices means that now is the time to India, South Korea, Costa Rica, Japan, countries. The principle of “common establish a significant carbon tax, as business Sweden, the UK and Denmark. While no but differentiated responsibilities” lies at and consumers will feel less pain. A carbon federal carbon taxes exist in North America, the heart of the argument around how to tax should stimulate new technology and certain provinces or states have taken the distribute the cuts in emissions needed to help prevent many low-carbon investments lead, such as Quebec and British Columbia in keep climate change to manageable levels. stalling, due to prolonged low oil prices. Canada, and California in the US. All these The 1997 Kyoto Protocol established Pragmatism is essential when assessing examples provide valuable experience on targets for rich countries alone, limiting the merits of a carbon tax against alternative how a carbon tax works in practice, including its overall effectiveness, and several big measures, such as carbon quotas. Putting where the generated revenue goes. emitters refused to sign up, such as the a price on carbon sends an unequivocal Sometimes, to avoid political opposition, US and Australia. Today, it is recognised message to governments, business and the the imposition of a carbon tax has been that all countries need to take on some public alike: our global economy needs to revenue neutral, so the levied income is action to invest in emissions reduction, by shift to zero net carbon emissions as soon taken off other taxes. Revenue from carbon proposing Intended Nationally Determined as possible, preferably by 2050. The tax on carbon emissions must rise substantially, giving a confident signal of the direction Alongside establishing a significant carbon tax, being taken by governments. When the UK governments must cut the big subsidies provided introduced a carbon floor price in 2013, the Treasury assumed that carbon prices should to the production and use of fossil fuels be at £30 per ton by 2020 and £100 by 2030. However, many analysts consider a higher price will be needed globally, such as £75 by taxes also provides welcome resources to Contributions (INDCs) to the global target 2020 and £250 by 2030 if we are to achieve cash-strapped governments to invest in of keeping within 2°C of warming. To date, the scale of new investment needed in the climate resilience and public transport, the accumulated INDCs miss this target by low-carbon economy. subsidise energy efficiency and transfer to a significant margin. Carbon taxes are levied on the carbon low-income households. The European Union has used the content of a particular activity and inform Alongside establishing a significant distribution and trading of carbon emission decisions made by diverse agents across the carbon tax, governments must cut the permits to achieve targets consistent with economy, from family firms and households big subsidies provided to the production their global responsibility. However, to big companies and national governments. and use of fossil fuels. These subsidies are major flaws in the design and operation of In the short term, such a tax will reduce the delaying the transition to a low-carbon the EU Emissions Trading System (EU activity and associated carbon emissions, economy. Despite some countries, such as ETS) have limited its potential. These while in the medium to longer term it should Indonesia, making bold changes to reduce include too many permits issued, the achieve a shift in investment towards lower- fossil fuel subsidies, elsewhere they remain distribution of permits without auctioning carbon options. How fast it happens depends very large, at an estimated $550-$650 billion and insufficient means to adjust quotas to on the elasticity of demand (the sensitivity of a year.2 The main governments continuing changing circumstances. There are also high demand to changes in price), levels of income to subsidise consumption of fossil fuels are administrative costs to carbon quotas, both

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for the European regulatory body and the If we are to address climate change, Existing carbon pricing schemes sectors directly concerned. The quotas only and achieve the cuts in GHG emissions covered around half of total EU emissions. we desperately need, we should try all the The process of distributing the permits policy tools in the box. A combination of US$175/ without auction brought preferential benefit government regulation and market-based tCO2 to those firms with high emissions and mechanisms is needed, with regular review loss of significant potential revenue for to learn how effectively they are achieving 168 Swedish carbon tax government. the goals. A carbon tax is a key measure Over-provision of permits created a because it is relatively simple to introduce collapse in the carbon price because firms and implement, and it establishes a very

… were able to achieve emission cuts at clear price for carbon that business and the lower-than-expected cost, and the economic public can build into their future plans. In a … recession led to a reduction in economic world of uncertainty and risk, governments US$100/ activity. So today, the resulting carbon can reduce policy uncertainty by giving a tCO 2 price of €5 per ton gives little incentive loud, long-term signal on carbon prices. 95 Tokyo cap-and-trade or price signal to guide future investment. The revenue raised can be directed at The European Parliament plans to retire a cushioning the cost for poorer households, signiﬁcant number of emission permits from investing in low-carbon research and the market in the hope of re-establishing a development, and subsidising improvements credible carbon price. But damage has been in energy efﬁciency. done to the integrity of the mechanism, Given the urgency of achieving emission which will take time to repair. reductions, it is important to set a common Carbon cap-and-trade zones have direction for everyone, whether they are US$75/

tCO2 been established in a number of other involved in energy production, farming, Norwegian carbon places, including seven Chinese cities and transport, ﬁnance, oil production or 69 tax (upper) provinces, California, Quebec and South construction. Establishing a carbon tax is 68 Swiss carbon tax Korea. These have avoided some of the the best means to do this. problems associated with the EU ETS, but suffer from high administrative costs 1 Unburnable Carbon 2013: Wasted capital and of implementation, partial coverage of stranded assets (2013). Carbon Tracker Initiative, emissions (because they focus on large-scale Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London. sources of GHGs) and the risks of political 2 Better Growth, Better Climate (2014). New US$50/ inﬂuence in quota allocation. Climate Economy Report, Washington DC, WRI. tCO 2 48 Finnish carbon tax

US$175/tCO2

California CaT, French carbon tax, 11 Shenzhen Pilot ETS Danish carbon tax 31 Icelandic carbon tax, 10 28 British Columbia Guangdong Pilot ETS, 9 Beijing Pilot ETS / US$25/ carbon tax, Irish Québec CaT EU ETS carbon tax tCO2 22 Australia CPM Mexican carbon tax South African carbon tax, (upper), Tianjin Pilot 5 5 Shanghai Pilot ETS 16 UK carbon price ﬂoor ETS, Norwegian carbon tax (lower) 4 Regional Greenhouse 11 3 10 Gas Initiative 9 Japanese carbon tax 2 1 Mexican carbon 4 5 tax (lower), New 3 2 Zealand ETS 1 US$0/ Source: World Bank 2014 State and Trends of Carbon Pricing Report tCO2

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Learning a new trade

More governments see emissions trading as a powerful tool to help meet climate targets without choking economic growth. But for this nascent market to succeed, it must become truly international and cooperative

Summary map of existing, emerging and potential regional, national and sub-national carbon pricing instruments (ETS and tax)

ALBERTA MANITOBA ONTARIO ICELAND KAZAKHSTAN REPUBLIC BRITISH EU UKRAINE OF KOREA COLUMBIA WASHINGTON QUÉBEC OREGON JAPAN CALIFORNIA RGGI TURKEY CHINA

MEXICO

THAILAND

BRAZIL

RIO DE JANEIRO SÃO PAULO NEW CHILE SOUTH AFRICA ZEALAND

ETS implemented or scheduled for implementation ETS and carbon tax implemented or scheduled Carbon tax implemented or scheduled for implementation ETS implemented or scheduled, tax under consideration ETS or carbon tax under consideration Carbon tax implemented or scheduled, ETS under consideration © World Bank Group’s Carbon Pricing Watch publication, May 2015 publication, May Watch Carbon Pricing Bank Group’s © World

By Dirk Forrister, President and CEO, cooperate in a global movement to reduce everyone knows it will happen in stages. International Emissions Trading Association emissions on a massive scale. And it will happen from the ground up, The international community’s stated from hundreds of actions taken at national ook around the world’s capitals. For goal is to hold global warming to no more and subnational levels. the ﬁrst time, every nation in the than 2°C. Sounds simple, but it implies As pledges are made in the early part of Lworld is preparing a contribution that developed countries will reduce this year, they will set the stage for a major to the climate change ﬁght. The word emissions by 2050 by as much as 80 per event in Paris in December, when a new ‘contribution’ should not be seen as a gift cent, and developing countries by up to 50 climate agreement will emerge to govern to charity. Rather, it’s a commitment to per cent. This will be a heroic effort, but international efforts for the coming decades.

It will improve not only the climate, but hope of achieving the 2°C goal without Trees killled by acid rain in Poland. Emissions trading is a recent but not new innovation: it proved also direct investment flows for a major stunting economic growth. In fact, market immensely effective and efficient in tackling acid transformation in how we create and use approaches tap into economic growth cycles rain in the US in 1990s energy – all aimed at that 2°C objective. and allow efficient flows of capital to places that offer the ‘biggest bang for the buck’ President George H. W. Bush’s acid A market-based approach in reducing emissions at any given time. rain programme, to spur sulphur dioxide A key economic fundamental underlies this Markets can reward entrepreneurs who seek reductions. It was hailed for its effectiveness work. Numerous studies have shown that out and capture the best options. in meeting emissions targets ahead of if countries act collaboratively, brought That’s why more than 1,000 businesses schedule and for only 25 per cent of the together by a system of market-based and 74 governments signed the World predicted cost – something rarely seen in measures, then they can afford to do much Bank-led Joint Statement on Carbon environmental governance. more – and do it faster – than if they go Pricing last year. It’s why the role of markets Rather than require every source of it alone. They just need a system to instil is a key element of the Paris negotiations. emissions to reach a specified limit, the economic value in carbon reductions. And it’s why countries like South Korea, programme allowed the entire group of Simply put, they need a price on carbon. China, Kazakhstan and New Zealand, not sources to reach the target together. Cheap Catching carbon reductions is like fishing to mention many US states and Canadian sources could do more than their share and with a net: the broader you cast the net, provinces, are joining Europe in using take reductions to market. Expensive sites the better the results. The Paris agreement market-based solutions to drive businesses could buy the extra reductions, which were needs to help nations connect their carbon to reduce emissions. cheaper than controls on their own plants. markets across borders, so that better results A private market emerged to support trades can be achieved. We need a market that The roots of emissions trading between power stations. casts a global net on this problem. Emissions trading is a recent innovation This strategy works where the pollution From an environmental point of in environmental policy. The most famous problem being addressed is the overall view, market mechanisms offer the best early example emerged in the 1990s with loading of emissions into the atmosphere.

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In other words, it doesn’t matter where the The most important challenge came with with little or no regulation – that’s why the individual emissions reductions take place; the economic crisis. It reduced demand for Paris agreement needs to set broad coverage all that matters is the cumulative result. carbon units in Europe, just like it reduced across every major economy. Market Such is the case with climate change. The demand for fuels and other commodities. architecture can help with this problem atmosphere values an emissions reduction But the system survives and produces daily by providing incentives for countries from any location on the planet equally. prices – and prompts emissions cuts in line to set similarly stringent targets, since So a cooperative approach that enables with Europe’s commitments. comparability of targets is likely to be the companies to harvest emissions from the American states are looking at market- first requirement for any market linkage. cheapest places can offer powerful results. based alternatives to a proposed federal The key to understanding its market regulation on power-plant emissions, Creating a global market success is that it offers a fair deal to buyer including emissions trading. But it would With the major players turning to market and seller – be they a company or a country. be better if the US Congress passed a new solutions, the Paris agreement will need Both are better off, because the atmospheric law to address US carbon emissions, as to contain provisions to support linkages benefit helps everyone. More specifically, current regulations are grounded in an old between the markets in the future. Since the expensive sites save money and the statute that is ill equipped for handling such the agreement may be quite short, it will cheap sites make money. a major issue. likely establish the most basic rules to China has seven pilot trading markets provide a foundation for international The emergence of carbon markets in operation, and the country is currently market cooperation. For the past 10 years, the EU has run the in the design phase of a national carbon The International Emissions Trading largest emissions trading programme in market. It is expected to ramp up between Association (IETA) worked with the Harvard the world for delivering greenhouse gas 2016 and 2020 and be ready to help China Project on Climate Agreements last year on reductions: the EU Emissions Trading meet its post-2020 goals. a project to highlight what core provisions System (ETS). The EU ETS has met every Among the greatest remaining challenges are needed in Paris in light of the growth of environmental target for the past decade. is how to assure that companies don’t try to national and subnational carbon markets. However, in recent years, the market has escape carbon controls by moving to places These include the tools to ‘account’ for sent a weak investment signal, because the emissions and a registry system to trade carbon price declined sharply during the carbon units. Making these available on an economic crisis – adjusting to the drop in How cap-and-trade works open-source basis could make it easy for economic output and, therefore, emissions. interested nations to build strong systems. Perhaps the EU ETS’s greatest success is QIn a cap-and-trade system, a central The negotiating text for Paris is slowly how it attracted participation from dozens regulator (usually government) sets an taking shape. It contains provisions to of carbon-offset providers through the UN’s aggregate cap for all covered emitters address major themes such as mitigation, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), (such as power plants, heavy industry adaptation, finance and technology transfer. which helps attract low-carbon investment and chemicals firms). From that It offers options for building a market in developing countries. This experience aggregate cap, emissions allowances framework, including the ideas that IETA helped spark South Korea’s interest in are distributed, either through public and Harvard floated last year. launching an ETS this year. auctions or direct grants for industries Realistically, a Paris agreement will It also prompted China’s interest in exposed to international competition. stop short of offering the operational using a national carbon market to reduce When the compliance deadline for decisions needed to supply some of the emissions, due to start in 2016. Many other each period occurs, companies must market infrastructure. But it offers a major emerging economies are setting up their surrender an amount of allowances or opportunity to put political winds in the own pricing systems, including Mexico, offsets to equal their actual emissions. sails of future efforts. South Africa and Chile. A global movement If they miss a target, they face stiff So far this decade, the broad economic is underway. financial penalties. shockwaves across Europe and the political This means that throughout the divisions on climate policy in the US have Challenges and opportunities year, companies are making reductions presented major challenges to international Carbon markets have endured their fair – or if their production grows, they climate policy. But the coming decade is share of growing pains. Under the Kyoto procure credits. They gradually build gearing up for something important. Look Protocol framework, the US, Canada and their account balances to have enough around you – when you see Europe, China Australia opted out, but Europe, Japan and allowances for compliance by the due and America searching for ways to tap many developing countries did not. Europe’s date. If they have extra, they can bank market solutions to climate change, you appetite for CDM credits launched a global them for future use. know it’s something the world has never industry in climate mitigation projects. seen before. It will be a first.

CLIMATE 2020 118 REMEDIES © NASA/Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio Scientific Visualization © NASA/Goddard The scientific case for a cumulative carbon budget

Climate change mitigation efforts must recognise thattackling current carbon dioxide ﬂows is not enough; what matters is total emissions to date

By Myles Allen, Environmental Change global CO2 emissions to be reduced to requires net global CO2 emissions to be Institute, School of Geography and zero. What ultimately matters for climate reduced to zero, after which temperatures Environment & Department of Physics, is the total ‘emissions stock’, or cumulative would remain constant even as atmospheric University of Oxford, & Oxford Martin CO2 emissions over the entire industrial CO2 concentrations gradually decline. Programme on Resource Stewardship epoch, not the ‘emissions flow’, or the rate While CO2 was once thought to have an of emission of greenhouse gases in any ‘atmospheric lifetime’ of about 200 years, ne of the most important given decade. it is now recognised that any fossil carbon new findings of the 2013 This is important, because many involved released will continue to affect the climate OScientific Assessment of the in climate change negotiations still think for many thousands of years. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change their ultimate objective is stabilisation of This is illustrated in Figure 1, which (IPCC) is that “cumulative emissions of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, shows three idealised CO2 emission paths. carbon dioxide (CO2) largely determine and that the rates of emission in 2030 or In the green path, global emissions peak global mean surface warming by the late 21st 2050 are crucial determinants of success. around 2015 and decline thereafter at a peak century and beyond.” Unlike most other In reality, stabilising atmospheric CO2 rate of three per cent per year, while in the climate pollutants, CO2 emissions accumulate concentrations is not enough to stabilise in the climate system. This simple fact has climate. The world would continue to warm Arctic sea ice hit its annual minimum on 17 September profound implications for climate policy. for centuries even with CO2 concentrations 2014. The red line in this image shows the average Stabilising global temperatures requires net held constant. Stabilising temperatures minimum extent between 1981 and 2010

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orange path, they peak in the late 2020s warming due to CO2 emissions alone. mitigation (dark blue line). The red scenario but decline at 10 per cent per year – which The coloured lines and pink uncertainty moves rapidly off to the top right corner would be extremely expensive, and might plume, also plotted against cumulative CO2 of the ﬁgure, meaning CO2 emissions not be technically or politically feasible. emissions, show expected total human- continue to accumulate and temperatures Although peak emissions are very different, induced warming from all greenhouse gases keep rising past 4ºC. In the blue scenario, total cumulative emissions up to the time and other forms of pollution, under a range net CO2 emissions are reduced to zero emissions reach zero is the same in all of scenarios from sustained ‘business-as- before 2100, so CO2 stops accumulating three cases. The most likely temperature usual’ (red line) to aggressive and immediate in the climate system and temperatures responses, shown by the coloured lines in the right panel, are almost identical, with Figure 1: the persistent effect of CO2 on global temperature the small differences dwarfed by uncertainty in the response (grey bands). Idealised CO2 emission proﬁles Global temperature response 4 Figure 1 also illustrates the importance 14 of the carbon budget over the entire 12 industrial period, not just to the middle of -3% per year 3 -4% per year this century. It shows that it is CO2 over all 10 -10% per year time that matters, not cumulative emissions 8 2 to 2050. The orange and green scenarios represent very different total emissions from 6 -induced warming ( ° C) warming -induced now to 2050 but yield the same climate 4 2 1 outcome. Conversely, constant emissions 2 CO from now to 2050 would represent very

Billion tonnes carbon per year (Gt C/yr) (Gt Billion tonnes carbon per year 0 0 similar cumulative CO2 emissions to 2050 2000 2050 2100 2150 2000 2050 2100 2150 as the orange scenario, but a much greater Year Year climate commitment in the longer term, because it would imply a much greater Figure 2: correlation between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming emissions commitment after 2050.

Finally, Figure 1 also shows that the longer Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO2) we postpone reducing CO2 emissions, the 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 faster they have to fall to achieve any given 5 RCP.2.6 Historical 2100 temperature goal (this would not be true of a ° C) RCP4.5 RCP range short-lived climate pollutant like methane). -1 4 RCP6.0 1% yr CO2 -1 Conversely, for any given rate of reduction RCP8.5 1% yr CO2 range after the emissions peak, we must note that 3 Total human-induced 2100 committed peak warming has been rising warming over recent decades at approximately the 2100 2050 same rate as cumulative emissions, which is 2 2050 2050 about twice as fast as observed temperatures. 2050 2100 2030 CO2-induced warming Therefore, measures that would have limited 2030 CO2-induced warming to 2ºC if initiated 1 2010

2 in 1992 would yield a peak CO -induced 1950 2000

warming of over 3ºC if initiated today. ( to 1861-1880 anomaly relative Temperature Past emissions 2°C budget Must be sequestered or recaptured to meet the 2°C goal 0 1890 ‘Unemittable carbon’ 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

This global carbon budget provides a Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC) simple and powerful way of framing the challenge of avoiding dangerous human- Warming in the CMIP-5 multi-model ensemble – ﬁgure SPM10 of IPCC (2013). Black horizontal induced climate change. Figure 2 shows under the Representative Concentration Pathway bar shows historical emissions to date; dark grey global average temperatures plotted against scenarios (coloured lines, with pink plume bar shows the approximate cumulative emission showing the range of uncertainty) and under budget consistent with limiting warming to 2°C; cumulative global CO2 emissions, both idealised CO -only scenarios (grey line and light grey bar shows carbon reserves that, if used, measured from 19th century conditions. 2 The thin grey line and grey shaded plume) plotted as a function of cumulative total must be sequestered or recaptured if the 2°C goal anthropogenic CO emissions from 1870 onwards is to be met. uncertainty plume shows the expected 2

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stop rising before they reach 2ºC. But all Implications for mitigation policy (soot). Many of the measures required to scenarios follow roughly the same line: for Many national and international policies reduce these emissions are relatively low cost a given level of cumulative CO2 emissions, still treat climate change as a flow problem, and offer very substantial co-benefits. Their the planet experiences about the same level focusing on reducing the overall rate of impact, in climate terms, is also relatively of warming irrespective of whether that greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, 2030 immediate. If we halve methane emissions CO2 is emitted fast or slow. Warming from or 2050. But while reducing the rate of then atmospheric methane concentrations non-CO2 sources adds 25-30 per cent to accumulation of CO2 emissions buys would fall by a comparable amount within CO2-induced warming from 2050 onwards time, it does not solve the problem unless a couple of decades. In contrast, if we in these scenarios. we succeed in the end of reducing CO2 halve CO2 emissions, atmospheric CO2 The implications for the cumulative emissions to zero. This is important, concentrations would continue to rise, just carbon budget are shown by the grey bar because many of the most cost-effective half as fast as before. at the bottom of the figure. Past emissions measures for reducing emissions in the short Because measures to reduce CO2 from fossil fuel use and land-use change are term, such as improving energy efficiency, emissions take a long time to have a over half a trillion tonnes of fossil carbon are not those that will ultimately be needed discernible impact, immediate measures (black bar). Future CO2 emissions must be to reduce emissions to zero. to reduce SLCP emissions are undeniably limited to between half as much again and The key technology required to achieve the most cost-effective approach to the same again (dark grey bar) if the goal of net zero CO2 emissions is carbon capture reducing the rate of climate change over limiting global warming to 2ºC, set by the and storage (CCS). CCS is in a unique the next few decades. But immediate parties to the UN Framework Convention position among climate change mitigation SLCP measures would only have an impact on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Cancún measures: it is needed to allow exploitation on peak warming if CO2 emissions are of fossil fuel reserves that would otherwise reduced aggressively at the same time, be ‘unburnable’ in a climate-constrained such that temperatures are beginning to The discovery of the world and also, in conjunction with stabilise (for which CO2 emissions must importance of the biomass energy generation or other be approaching zero) soon after 2050. methods, can provide a means of SLCP emissions only become important cumulative carbon budget extracting CO2 from the atmosphere. in the context of the overall goal of the has exploded the idea This is almost certain to be needed either UNFCCC when CO2 emissions are to offset remaining CO2 emissions after already falling. of ‘CO2-equivalence’ temperatures stabilise or, if the safe cumulative carbon budget is exceeded, of The myth of ‘CO2-equivalence’ drawing CO2 down again. The discovery of the importance of the in 2010, is to be achieved. The precise Largely because of this unique long-term cumulative carbon budget has exploded carbon budget depends on the probability ‘backstop’ role, the IPCC finds that failing the idea of ‘CO2-equivalence’, which is still we are prepared to accept of failing to to deploy CCS more than doubles the widely used in climate policy and emission meet the goal, and on what happens to cost of meeting the 2ºC goal (and in many trading systems. Not all measures to non-CO2 warming, but to have even a models makes it impossible to meet it at reduce CO2-equivalent emissions in 2030 modest chance of meeting the 2ºC goal, all). Yet because it is expensive as a means are equivalent. Some, like CCS, provide total anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the of reducing short-term emissions flow, a route to net zero or net negative CO2 entire anthropocene must be less than one CCS remains a relatively low priority in emissions. Others, like improved energy trillion tonnes of carbon (3.7 trillion tonnes many climate policy portfolios. Recognising efficiency or reducing methane or soot of CO2), well over half of which has already the cumulative carbon budget is therefore emissions, do not. been emitted. essential for governments to recognise the Short-term measures can help limit The IPCC estimates that available fossil importance of specifically supporting the warming until such time as CO2 emissions fuel reserves (economically exploitable with development and deployment of backstop can be reduced to zero, but in the absence current technology and prices) exceed this technologies like CCS. of a plan to achieve net zero CO2 emissions, ‘2ºC budget’ by a factor of two to three, they will ultimately fail. It is essential that with resources (potentially exploitable if Cumulative carbon versus short-lived the UNFCCC recognises the importance prices rise) many times greater still. Hence, climate pollutants of achieving net zero CO2 emissions such any fossil carbon used beyond the trillionth Limited progress on reducing CO2 emissions that additional policies can be put in place tonne (light grey bar) will have to be has prompted interest in measures to address to work towards this long-term goal, captured at source or recaptured from the climate change by reducing emissions of supplementing short-term measures to atmosphere and disposed of if the 2ºC goal so-called ‘short-lived climate pollutants’, or reduce emissions of all climate pollutants is to be met. SLCPs, such as methane and black carbon over the coming decades.

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A global emissions budget

Setting ﬁnite carbon budgets has proved a useful environmental policy tool at national level, but to date has failed to gain traction on an international scale. Are concerns over fairness and cost justiﬁed, or could it offer the global communityits best chance for tackling climate change?

Historical emissions and curbs required for the future 16

10 per person 2 8

Tonnes of CO Tonnes 4

0 1813 1917 1891 1852 1878 1826 1956 1995 1839 1943 1982 1865 2021 1969 1930 1904 1800 2073 2047 2085 2034 2099 2060 2008

High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income Global

By Owen Barder, Senior Fellow, and Alice total to have a less than 25 per cent risk of 2008 Climate Change Act set a long- Lépissier, Research Associate, Center for exceeding 2°C of global average warming.1 term, legally binding emissions-reduction Global Development, and Alex Evans, Senior The world has already emitted more than target for the UK of at least 80 per cent Fellow, New York University’s Center on 500 billion tonnes of this ‘emissions budget’ below 1990 levels by 2050. The Act also International Cooperation since the mid-18th century, leaving only 250 created an independent Committee on billion tonnes remaining. On current rates, Climate Change charged with advising he world is approaching the point this is likely to be used up within the next the government on emissions targets and at which it needs to start to get two decades. reporting to Parliament (and publicly) on Tserious about international action to As governments approach the 2015 UN progress made towards them. address climate change. The UN climate climate summit in Paris, there are strong However, the idea of doing the same at change process has now been underway for scientiﬁc reasons for them to consider a global level has to date made much less nearly a quarter of a century since the UN basing international climate policy on a headway. The idea of a global emissions Framework Convention on Climate Change global emissions budget. This would be budget is often seen as politically impractical (UNFCCC) was signed in 1992. Over that designed to keep the world below the 2°C by country negotiators – above all because period, global CO2 emissions have risen by threshold, and would be allocated between of the charged issues of equity and fairness 52 per cent. all the world’s countries. involved. Researchers at Oxford University have The idea of emissions budgets is already On the one hand, it is hard to imagine calculated that the world can emit no embedded in some national contexts – most developing countries ever agreeing that more than 750 billion tonnes of carbon in notably the United Kingdom, where the a common property resource like the

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atmosphere should be allocated indefinitely on the basis of ‘grandfathering’, with Costs based on fair share of finite carbon budget countries’ allocations in proportion to their 6% current emissions. Given that countries’ emission levels are themselves usually 4% proportionate to GDP, allocating an 2% emissions budget on this basis would in 0% effect be creating new property rights to a global commons, and then sharing them out -2% on the basis that the richer a country is, the -4% larger its share should be. -6% On the other hand, many developed- -8% country negotiators have to date assumed that an allocation of emissions quotas on an -10% equal per capita basis would be ruinously -12% Average costs as % of GDP costs Average expensive for them, and as a result politically -14% unsellable to their electorates. Low income Lower middle Upper middle High income income income While proposals have been advanced as ways of bridging this gap – most notably, the 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2050 idea of a managed process of convergence to equal per capita rights over a negotiated period that could be decades long, first O what countries’ emission allocations 2025, and the European Union 0.3 per cent. proposed by the Global Commons would be, under user-defined parameters; Among emerging economies, China would Institute – these have not to date achieved O what their net costs would be, including face net costs of 1.4 per cent of GDP a year a major breakthrough in the UNFCCC decarbonisation costs at home and in 2025 and Russia 1.6 per cent. In both negotiations. financial flows through international cases, these are higher than the equivalent The idea of a global emissions budget has emissions trading if the user enables figure for the United States. This raises hence remained off the table for most of the trading to be used. The model important issues about equity and fairness. history of the UN climate process, despite automatically calculates each country’s On the other hand, lower-emitting the fact that the need for such an approach optimal mixture of the two for cost- emerging economies would be net could readily be seen as implied in Article 2 effectiveness. beneficiaries of the framework in early of the UNFCCC. This defines the overall decades. India would gain 2.6 per cent of objective of the Convention as “stabilisation Reference Scenario GDP a year in 2025 and Brazil 0.5 per cent, of greenhouse gas concentrations in the Our headline finding is that an approach though they would then face net costs rather atmosphere at a level that would prevent based on fair shares of a finite carbon than benefits from around 2045 onwards. dangerous anthropogenic interference with budget is both surprisingly affordable for Low-income countries (LICs), finally, the climate system”. higher-emitting countries and potentially would stand to gain substantially in our Against this backdrop, we were interested game-changing as a source of finance for Reference Scenario, given their very low to explore what the financial implications development for lower-income countries if per capita emissions. Ethiopia, for example, would be for different countries of basing emissions trading is permitted (something would stand to make 27.2 per cent of its international climate policy on a global that higher-emitting countries also have GDP a year from emissions trading by emissions budget and then sharing it out every incentive to push for, given that 2025, and Bangladesh 9.5 per cent. LICs as equitably. Would it be as expensive for high- it substantially reduces their costs of a group would gain 6.4 per cent in 2025. emitting countries as they fear? Conversely, compliance). In dollar terms, the net financial what would it mean for flows of finance to In our ‘Reference Scenario’ (a 2°C flows to lower-middle-income countries low-emitting countries? This is an especially emissions budget, with early mitigation, and would amount to $267 billion in 2025 topical question in a year that will see convergence to equal per capita allocations (approximately twice as much as the $135 the definition of new global Sustainable by 2030), we find that high-income billion of total global Official Development Development Goals (SDGs) to take over countries as a group would face net costs Assistance flows in 2013), while those to from the Millennium Development Goals. of only 0.6 per cent of GDP a year in 2025 LICs would total approximately $152 To explore these questions, we built a and 1.5 per cent in 2030, rising to 3 per billion. This would therefore represent detailed quantitative model called SkyShares cent by 2050. The United States would face a major new source of finance for that calculates both: net costs of 0.7 per cent of GDP a year in development and for delivering the SDGs.

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Historical Responsibility Scenario We also created a ‘Historical Responsibility While any comprehensive approach to climate change will Scenario’ for comparison purposes. This is based on the same mitigation parameters involve costs, unrestricted use of emissions trading between as the Reference Scenario, and is likewise participants keeps these costs as low as they can be based on convergence to equal per capita entitlements. Unlike the Reference Scenario, however, this version converges to equal per capita shares of stocks of rise in absolute terms in the earlier years of economics laureate Elinor Ostrom and atmospheric carbon. In other words, it takes the framework. Under this scenario: others have pointed out in rebutting Garrett account of past emissions as well as current O China’s net costs are 1.4 per cent of Hardin’s famous ‘tragedy of the commons’ ones, going back to 1800, and then adapts GDP in 2025 and 4.2 per cent in 2050 – argument, recognition of the need to future allowances correspondingly. compared to 1.4 per cent and 5.2 per cent cooperate to manage shared commons can Overall, this has the effect of reducing respectively in the Reference Scenario; be a uniquely powerful driver for positive upper-middle-income countries’ costs and O the United States’ net costs are 1.9 per sum dynamics. increasing those of developed countries. cent of GDP in 2025 and 7 per cent in Second, we believe that this argument Under the Historical Responsibility 2050 – compared to 0.7 per cent and 3.4 overlooks the fact that it is precisely Scenario, we find that: per cent respectively in the Reference quantified caps on emissions that are most O upper-middle-income countries’ net costs Scenario. likely to bring down the costs of clean are 0.6 per cent of GDP in 2025 and 3.3 technology – in effect creating a virtuous per cent in 2050 – compared to 0.8 per Conclusion circle whereby demand for lower-emission cent and 4.2 per cent respectively in the One of the objections sometimes made to technologies reduces their costs and makes Reference Scenario; proposals based on defining and sharing out them more widely available. Our approach O high-income countries’ net costs are 1.5 a global emissions budget is that it would does not merely anticipate future advances per cent of GDP in 2025 and 5.9 per cent create a ‘zero-sum’ dynamic as countries in technology; it prices them in, and also in 2050 – compared to 0.6 per cent and squabble over shares of a finite resource, and takes seriously what will be necessary to 3 per cent respectively in the Reference would make no allowance for future advances drive those advances. Scenario. in technology that would one day bring Above all, we think that the approach down the cost of emissions reductions.2 set out here is practical, not utopian. A China is an outlier in the Historical We believe this argument to be wrong framework based on the principles we Responsibility Scenario in that while its on two counts. First, we think it is based have outlined would not depend on full costs become proportionately cheaper than on a misapprehension of how to manage global participation at the outset: on the those of the US in both 2025 and 2050, they shared environmental commons. As Nobel contrary, it could work with a coalition of the willing, as the SkyShares model will Historical Responsibility Scenario illustrate for any combination of countries. Past CO2 While recognising that any comprehensive owed approach to climate change will involve 4000 All-time budget costs, unrestricted use of emissions trading 3500 between participants keeps these costs as 391 GT -154 GT 237 GT 3000 low as they can be. 662 GT 2 -413 GT Above all, we believe that the 2500 1075 GT recent disappointing track record of 752 GT 2000 multilateralism and the ongoing leadership -162 GT deficit points to an unmet need for big ideas 1500 914 GT about how we can take control of our shared 1216 GT global future. We believe that this is just GigaTonnes of CO GigaTonnes 1000 +730 GT 486 GT such an idea. 500 Emissions from land use change 0 1 See: www.newscientist.com/article/dn17051- Fair stocks Actual stocks & allowances humanitys-carbon-budget-set-at-one-trillion- 1800-2100 tonnes.html 2 See for example: www.theguardian.com/ High income Upper middle income Lower middle income Low income environment/2013/oct/24/ipcc-carbon-budget- warsaw-climate-change-christiana-figueres

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Carbon capture and storage

Limiting global temperature rises will likely involve a mix of strategies and technologies. What part can carbon capture and storage play?

By Brad Page, CEO, Global CCS Institute storage – a technology that captures carbon Global Status of CCS: 2014 report found dioxide from fossil fuel production and there are now 22 projects in construction or oday we face the dual challenge permanently stores it underground – is not operation worldwide, a 50 per cent increase of achieving both energy security an optional technology. It is mandatory. since the beginning of the decade. The CCS Tand a positive climate outcome. industry is poised to move through its most Fossil fuels remain extensively distributed, Development and deployment active construction period to date, extending easily recovered at low cost and enormous There are incredibly good reasons to across a diverse range of sectors such as iron in their quantity. The latest report by pursue vigorously the development and and steel, biofuel production, natural gas the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate deployment of carbon capture and storage and electricity. Change finds that carbon emissions from (CCS) technology. The world’s first example of CCS at fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas are rising First, CCS is the only technology capable full scale on a power station went live at to record levels. Indeed, the International of directly dealing with emissions from SaskPower’s Boundary Dam facility in Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that despite fossil-fuelled processes including power Canada in October 2014. Two more CCS the considerable support given to renewable generation, cement manufacture, steel projects in the power sector will come into energy over the past few decades and making and fertiliser production. Second, operation in the next two years in the US. increasing energy efficiency, fossil fuels will all elements of the technology are currently These are the Kemper County Energy still provide about 75 per cent of primary deployed in a variety of industries, including Facility in Mississippi and the Petra Nova energy in 2040. gas production. These industries are able Carbon Capture Project near Houston, Yet to achieve a 2°C outcome we have to to use existing technologies that are already Texas. Western Australia will soon have one reach zero emissions in about the same time low cost and proven. Despite claims of of the world’s largest CO2 storage projects frame. Renewables are a vital part of the it being too expensive, CCS is highly at the Gorgon LNG project, with injection abatement and energy security story. While competitive with other near-zero-emission planned to commence in 2016. there is no doubting their importance, they technology when comparing cost per tonne In Europe, the UK leads with three are not the whole answer in the time frames of CO2 avoided. Third, in combination with significant CCS projects receiving funding we face. the use of biofuels, CCS offers the most to begin advanced engineering studies, Energy efficiency is a win-win element, practical method of achieving net negative including both the Peterhead CCS Project but it cannot do all the work required either. While there are many who are convinced that renewables and energy efficiency are It will be necessary for all of us involved in the best path to a low-emission world, low-emissions technologies to increase understanding we should test them against the data and predictions mentioned earlier. I find it hard and acceptance of the solutions we represent to see a 2°C outcome with energy security at least cost by 2050 being achieved if we also limit the low-emission technologies carbon emissions, an approach that is very and the White Rose CCS Project. Most that can be used. likely to be needed to achieve 450 parts per recently, the UK has progressed the Teesside The enormity of low-cost fossil fuels million by 2050. In certain circumstances, Collective Project, which plans to harness combined with predictions of growing carbon capture utilisation and storage emissions from industrial processing. energy demand for decades, especially in (CCUS) may be able to deliver net carbon- Until four years ago, China did not rate developing countries, means that we will negative oil. a mention in our annual report. In 2014, it need to apply a combination of technology Finally, what many don’t know is that became number two in the world, where the and ingenuity to solve the climate challenge. this technology is active, operational and number of planned large-scale CCS projects I believe that this means carbon capture and viable. The Global CCS Institute’s annual rose to 11, up from six in 2011.

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Ingenuity required While there has been steady progress with CCS, particularly in the US, Canada, UK and China, ingenuity and deployment are needed if the technology is to become more affordable. Like any technology, costs are expected to reduce significantly as second- generation projects apply the learning and expertise from existing projects. We are already seeing this in action, with CCS in the power sector gaining valuable design, construction and operational experience through ‘learning by doing’. Being a first-of-a-kind project, Boundary Dam’s operator, SaskPower, has stated that a capital cost reduction of up to 30 per cent is readily achievable for its next CCS project. The world’s power industry is taking a close interest, in particular to how the savings, commissioning procedures and standard operations can be applied to new projects elsewhere. © SaskPower The IEA observes that by 2035 we will CCS facility interior at SaskPower’s Boundary Dam need thousands of CCS projects around considerably less significant policies to power station, the world’s first CCS on a full-scale the world to achieve our climate goals. support CCS have netted some $20 billion power station, which went live in October 2014 Importantly, many of these will be in the in investment. non-power sector, or industrial processes. Equitable policy treatment for low and We regularly hear CCS and CCUS as zero-emission technologies is necessary undergone significant development in the being exclusively associated with power to achieve climate change objectives at last decade and we now have large-scale production from coal-fired generators. least cost. The UK is leading the way to CCS projects in operation and construction. But this is to understate the potential a more equitable, market-based approach It’s critical that CCS is acknowledged for and necessity for CCS on a wider scope, to low-carbon technologies. Its scheme of its role in capturing carbon emissions. The particularly in steel production, fertilisers, ‘contracts for difference’ in the electricity right policy and funding mechanisms are cement manufacturing and refining, where market supports renewables, CCS needed to help CCS deliver a least-cost, CCS is the only practical application to deal and nuclear. This approach leaves the clean-energy solution for climate change. with their greenhouse gas emissions. Such technology choice up to individual private As we head towards the UN climate under-representation also extends to policy developers to identify the commercial summit in Paris later this year, it will focus: there are virtually no CCS policies opportunity based on a single contract for be necessary for all of us involved in in the world that target industrial processes difference price. It avoids ‘picking winners’, low-emissions technologies to increase for specific support. This area offers big allowing investors to make rational understanding and acceptance of the solutions emission reduction opportunities and is economic choices that deliver lower costs we represent. We must especially arm those characterised by having no alternative zero- for the consumer. that negotiate agreements and determine emission fuel. With large-scale CCS power projects national polices with the facts, analysis and now a reality, an important milestone in conclusions that make the explicit inclusion Supportive policy deployment of the technology has been of CCS and CCUS in energy policy and Clearly the world needs many more achieved. This means that it is time to mitigation policy straightforward. countries engaging and actively pursuing move discussion onto how CCS can best It is possible to solve the climate CCS projects. The key missing ingredient be deployed as part of a least-cost approach challenge. We already have the means. is supportive policy. We have seen that to climate change mitigation. We can We now need to apply our ingenuity and determined and focused policies in many now move on from arguments about its ensure we use all the technologies we countries have resulted in investment in ‘experimental’ nature or that it has not yet have available, including CCS, to enable renewables over the past decade of some been applied at scale to fossil fuel power them to service our energy needs practically $2 trillion. At the same time, valuable but plants. Carbon capture technologies have and affordably.

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By Isabel Hilton, journalist and broadcaster; Taming the dragon CEO and Editor, chinadialogue n March 2015, international news China’s pursuit of economic growth has taken its organisations reported some arresting Iremarks attributed to the head of China’s environmental toll, with smog now a fact of city life. meteorological service, Zheng Guoguang. Can the world’s biggest carbon emitter keep growing China’s temperatures, he warned, were rising faster than the global average and the country without tipping the climate over the edge? faced potentially disastrous climate impacts, including severe droughts and ﬂoods that, along with predicted higher temperatures, could threaten rivers, agricultural production and major infrastructure projects such as the Three Gorges Dam. © Kevin Frayer/Getty Images Frayer/Getty © Kevin

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Zhang’s remarks were strikingly direct. became one of the biggest beneficiaries of Their substance has been understood by the Clean Development Mechanism. China’s government for a decade. Qin In the early years of the 21st century, Dahe, Zhang’s predecessor, had previously climate change barely registered in Chinese pointed out that temperatures across the media. It was not until 2007, when China Tibetan plateau were rising four times faster finally overtook the US as the world’s largest than the global average, and that China’s emitter and issued its first climate change densely populated east coast, with its policies, that the government ordered Also in this section important delta cities, is highly vulnerable official media to begin a public education to sea-level rise and salt water intrusion. campaign on climate change. In 2005, as gross emissions from China’s The following year, China announced rapidly expanding, coal-fired economy a pilot carbon trading scheme, began to Lessons from were about to overtake those of the United close small and inefficient coal-fired power the EU 129 States, China’s leaders made a point of plants, and directed major investment to learning about climate change. Climate the development of wind power and the Can the US lead experts were summoned to brief the manufacture of solar panels. Today, China Communist Party’s Central Committee has the world’s largest installed wind and the way? 132 about climate science, and what a changing solar capacity, is planning a rapid expansion climate might mean for China’s economic of its nuclear capability, is on the brink Financing the future and international standing. As one of launching its national carbon trading transition 135 climate expert put it at the time, the tallest scheme and has promised to put a cap on tree attracts the wind. A China on the coal by 2020. verge of becoming the world’s biggest China’s leaders, many of them trained Unburnable carbon and emitter of greenhouse gases was in need engineers, had little difficulty in grasping the carbon bubble 138 of a policy response. the science, or in directing planners and policymakers to work through the Slow start Climate and development implications for China’s future. But if finance 141 China has been involved in international climate scepticism was not an obstacle, climate negotiations since they began. effective climate action was nevertheless far It is party to both the 1992 Framework from straightforward. China depends on Ethiopian initiative 144 Convention on Climate Change and the coal for more than 70 per cent of its energy, Kyoto Protocol. When the Kyoto Protocol vested fossil interests are powerful, and, The business case 148 was being negotiated in the 1990s, China was internationally, a sense of historic grievance just beginning two decades of spectacular towards developed countries remains growth and its leaders were in no mood sufficiently strong that China cannot afford Green investment 152 to listen to warnings about the dangers of to seem weak in negotiations. coal dependency or climate impacts. Nor were they obliged to – only developed states Strategic shift agreed to take on emissions reduction targets China nevertheless began in earnest to under Kyoto. Along with India and other plan for sustainable development in the emerging economies, China argued that, preparation of the 12th Five-Year Plan, since developed countries had caused the which came into effect in 2011. By then it problem, it was up to them to fix it. China was apparent that China’s carbon-intensive was not going to put prosperity on hold. growth model would quickly run out of Under the Kyoto principle of “common steam. Labour costs were rising, while but differentiated responsibilities”, China high-investment, low-added-value, was only committed to the so-called export-led growth was proving too costly nationally appropriate mitigation actions in environmental and social terms and – NAMAs in climate policy jargon. It also was monstrously inefficient in its use of energy and raw materials. It was clear Beijing, China. Women wear masks to protect that if China was to avoid middle-income against the heavy smog, a regular occurrence stagnation, there would have to be a in the cities of China’s eastern seaboard strategic economic shift.

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The 12th Five-Year Plan emerged as a blueprint for moving China, by then responsible for half of the world’s annual coal consumption, towards cleaner growth. It identiﬁed several key technology sectors for priority investment – including electric mobility, clean technologies and renewable energy – and mandated tougher energy efﬁciency targets. China had signed up to a 2°C target in Copenhagen in 2009, but privately many climate experts believed that it was not achievable. More worryingly, they reported that the view in government was that three or four degrees of warming would be tolerable. At those levels, experts fear that warming will trigger feedback loops, such as massive methane release from thawing tundra that could render climate change catastrophic. © John Ruwitch/Reuters

War on pollution Wind turbines and a power plant in Dongfang, about energy, food and climate security; a China. A more rapid shift to renewables will be China has several climate policy problems. required to avoid dangerous climate change shrinking water supply; and the perceived The Party’s priority is to maintain power, risk of domestic instability. which dictates that it delivers ever-improving Despite a rapidly expanding renewable living standards. Delivering that prosperity and goals will dictate what China brings and nuclear sector, official projections put demands energy, and local officials, whose to the climate conference in Paris in the non-fossil fuel share of all energy at promotions depended on headline GDP December. China now emits half as much only 20 per cent by 2030. China is paying growth, were well disposed to energy- again as the US. Even measured on a per the price of following the development intensive industries and inclined to turn capita basis, China’s emissions surpassed model of countries that industrialised a blind eye to China’s poorly enforced European levels for the first time in 2014. more than a century earlier, despite the environmental protection regulations. China aims to become a fully fact that negative lessons were clear and The Ministry of Environmental industrialised, middle-class society by 2021 available. It was only when large-scale Protection was too weak and under- and promises that its emissions will peak by contamination incidents threatened public resourced to prevail against the argument 2030 at the latest. The argument today is discontent that the government began to that China could develop first and clean not about the need for climate action, but take seriously questions around the quality up later. It was not until the consequences rather the manner in which it is executed. of development, rather than its speed. of coal dependency became inescapable Should China grow rapidly to an early but China’s willed dependence on coal has in other ways that the government began high peak, then face deep cuts, or grow left a legacy of inefficiency and pollution to put some serious strength into the more slowly to a later but lower peak? from its energy, transportation and chemical enforcement of its own laws and regulations. Policymakers outside China believe that a sectors, and the failure to count the cost Today, the choking smog that regularly peak at 2030 is too late for the world to avoid of pollution has hampered innovation and blankets the cities of China’s eastern dangerous climate change, and several recent efficiency. Now the government hopes that seaboard, and that takes six years off the life reports have pointed to pathways that would the transition to low-carbon development expectancy of people in north China, has allow China, theoretically, to move faster. will spur the necessary changes in both become a toxic political issue. The Prime Moving from theory to practice, however, production and consumption. Minister, Li Keqiang, has declared a ‘war on would demand that China upgrade its Last year, China and the US signed a pollution’ and the massive task of cleaning economy; overcome opposition from vested landmark climate cooperation agreement, up China has begun. Coal use is to be interests, including its own powerful state- and China promises to be more involved capped and there is a rush to build nuclear owned enterprises; effect an energy transition in global climate change governance and and hydropower and to convert power on a breathtaking scale; and bring in a robust to assume ‘appropriate responsibilities’. generation to gas. system of environmental governance. It’s a The government is well aware of the risks. The 13th Five-Year Plan is now in the big agenda, even without the countervailing Whether it can act fast enough to avoid final stages of preparation, and its targets pressures of a slowing economy; concerns them remains to be seen.

Early action on climate change has helped the EU to achieve substantial cuts in emissions while growing its economy. As the international community prepares to sign a new climate agreement, what lessons can it draw from Europe?

By Miguel Arias Cañete, EU Commissioner that follow us, we need to take swift and development can revitalise economies in for Climate Action and Energy collective action. Europe and globally, and help us seize the We know that building a climate-resilient, significant business opportunities that this instein said: “We cannot solve our low-carbon global economy is the only industrial revolution promises. problems with the same thinking we way to keep global warming below 2°C Eused when we created them.” When it and avoid the most dangerous impacts of Leading by example comes to fighting climate change, it is clear climate change. But time is not on our side. The new climate agreement in Paris this that we need to think differently. The scientific evidence is unequivocal: December offers a unique opportunity for Today, all across the world, we are seeing delaying action will only be more costly and global leaders to steer the world towards the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions narrow our options for reducing emissions that have been pumped into the atmosphere and adapting to the unavoidable impacts The photovoltaic park in Les Mées. One of the over past generations. If we do not want to of climate change. On the flip side, the largest solar farms in France, it covers an area heap more problems upon the generations transition to low-emission, climate-resilient of 200 hectares and delivers 100 MW of power

CLIMATE 2020 130 MAKING IT HAPPEN © Yves Herman/Reuters © Yves a secure and sustainable future. The EU per cent of our energy and almost 26 per Leaders from Denmark, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands at the EU summit, March 2008, where has already started the transition to a cent of EU electricity. they signed up to the Renewable Energy Directive. low-carbon economy. We are well on track We have seen the benefit of early action Individual targets set for each country are designed to meet our 2020 targets for emissions and how setting ambitious targets has so that by 2020 the EU will derive at least 20 per cent of its total energy needs from renewable sources reductions, renewables and energy paid off. They have given industry the efficiency. necessary predictability it needs for efficient EU emissions fell by 19 per cent investment and have been an important between 1990 and 2013, while GDP grew driver of stimulating innovation and green economy is proving to be one of the by 45 per cent. This absolute decoupling reducing the costs of technologies. most promising areas for job creation in of greenhouse gas emissions and economic A key role of the Paris agreement will be to the EU, enjoying a 20 per cent increase growth has been driven by robust EU and provide that same signal and clarity at global even during the recession years. Today the Member State policies. These have led to level by ensuring a system of transparency environmental goods and services sector in improved efficiency and a higher share of and accountability that shows parties will Europe provides jobs for more than four renewable energy, which today provides 15 follow through on their commitments. The million people.

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The EU’s new investment plan will 2020, when the new global climate deal The EU and its Member States are unlock public and private investments of comes into force. already the leading providers of official j at least 315 billion over the next three development assistance and climate finance years. These investments, in areas such Critical mass to developing countries and will continue as infrastructure, energy efficiency and The most immediate challenge in the to provide support to poor and vulnerable renewables, will help modernise and further coming months is the timely delivery of nations. j decarbonise the EU’s economy, as well as national contributions to the new global The EU will provide up to 14 billion create jobs. deal by a critical mass of international of public climate finance from its 2014–20 partners. budget to partners outside the EU. This Ambitious targets The EU was the first major economy is in line with the goal of investing at We are making good progress but we to submit its contribution in early March. least 20 per cent of the EU’s budget in can – and must – do more. Last October, Only a handful of others, including the climate-relevant actions both domestically EU leaders agreed new targets for 2030, US, Russia and Mexico, have followed, but within the EU and internationally over including a binding domestic greenhouse it is essential that other countries, and in this period. In addition, the European j gas emissions reduction goal of at least 40 particular other G20 nations, now move Investment Bank invests around 2 billion per cent below 1990 levels. with a greater sense of urgency. per year in international climate action. This is the core of the EU’s contribution G20 countries make up around 75 per Achieving synergies between development to the new global climate deal and is cent of global emissions, so it is crucial and climate objectives will be crucial for the consistent with achieving emissions for them to communicate their intended transformation to a low-carbon, climate- reductions of at least 80 per cent by 2050. contributions to partners as soon as possible. resilient world. We will also grow the share of renewables in We must have a clear idea of the adequacy We are already contributing significantly the total energy mix to at least 27 per cent of the collective effort before Paris so that to the transfer of technology by financing and have set an indicative energy savings together we can design and agree a regime climate action and development projects target of at least 27 per cent. that is capable of keeping the world on track with a technology dimension, as well Thanks to determined efforts at EU and to meet our objective of limiting global as through research collaboration. Member State level, the EU is the most temperature rise to below 2°C. Horizon 2020, the EU’s largest research emissions-efficient economy in the world If we are to have a level playing field, we and innovation programme, is open to today per unit of GDP. Reaching our 2030 need the broadest geographical coverage researchers and entrepreneurs outside target would further halve our emissions and the highest possible level of ambition. the EU and provides financial support to less developed countries. The EU has committed to invest at least 35 per cent j The EU is responsible for nine per cent of global emissions. of the programme’s budget of nearly 80 billion in climate-related action. We are prepared to play our part, but we need others to We are also working with our trade do the same. We also understand that some countries partners to speed up the dissemination and uptake of climate-friendly technologies. We may need support in their fight against climate change hope to conclude a significant international agreement on the liberalisation of trade in environmental goods and services before the intensity. We will achieve our goal by fully The new agreement must reflect evolving end of the year. integrating climate into our energy policy. geopolitical and economic realities. Those In the run-up to the Paris conference We are building a strong European Energy with the greatest responsibilities and we are also building strong alliances with Union that will change the way we use, capabilities will be expected to make the ambitious international partners. But transport and consume energy. most ambitious mitigation commitments. success in Paris requires pressure from a Energy efficiency in particular has a key wide range of constituencies – citizens, role to play in meeting climate objectives Supporting international partners business leaders, financial institutions and – both in the EU and globally. After all, The EU is responsible for nine per cent of civil society. the cheapest and cleanest energy is the global emissions. We are prepared to play Every person and every country of the energy we don’t use. Energy efficiency our part, but we need others to do the same. world stands to benefit if we can prevent measures can deliver quick, cost- At the same time, we understand that some climate change from reaching dangerous efficient results. They have an important countries may need support in their fight levels. We are all stakeholders in the contribution to make towards closing the against climate change and in making the planet and we all have a part to play in large emissions gap between now and transition to a low-carbon economy. safeguarding it for future generations.

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Leading the way?

Is the US ready to spearhead action on the bold changes necessary to avoid a potentially catastrophic rise in global temperatures? © Sam Hodgson/Reuters

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By Sam Adams, Director, US Climate putting a price on carbon could make the participants in the Regional Greenhouse Initiative, World Resources Institute US more competitive with China and Gas Initiative have reduced power sector other countries that dominate the booming carbon dioxide pollution by 40 per cent s the world heads toward a global clean-energy market. As the world’s top since 2005 while the regional economy grew agreement to tackle climate change investor in renewable energy, China is by eight per cent, adjusted for inflation. Athis year, the United States needs creating 100,000 clean-energy jobs each Customers collectively saved nearly $400 to be at the forefront. The US – which is year. By 2020, the International Energy million on energy bills. the world’s biggest historic greenhouse gas Agency predicts China will account for Western and Midwestern states are (GHG) emitter, and the second-biggest 40 per cent of world growth in renewable working together on climate and clean- current one after China – has begun the shift energy capacity. It makes sense for the US energy strategies through the North from laggard to leader in curbing the GHG to increase its share of this business. America 2050 Initiative. California and emissions that are warming our planet. The In fact, five US sectors are primed to Quebec are partners in a cap-and-trade consequences of this warming are evident capture additional economic benefits while emissions-cutting programme, which across the US map: severe droughts, extreme combating climate change, according to Ontario recently announced it plans to join. weather and rising seas. Most American the World Resources Institute (WRI) A new executive order issued by Governor citizens, and the leaders of many cities, states 2014 report, Seeing Is Believing. These are: Jerry Brown mandates cutting California’s and regions, recognise that now is the time to power generation, electricity consumption, GHG emissions to 40 per cent below 1990 act. So does President Barack Obama. passenger vehicles, natural gas systems and levels by 2030, an interim target meant to There is legitimate reason to be hopeful that with US leadership, an international agreement can be struck in Paris this The US Climate Action Plan, released by the Obama December. A global deal would help launch administration in 2013, laid some of the groundwork the long-term efforts we need to keep the world from exceeding the 2°C temperature for a more aggressive stance on climate rise that the vast majority of climate scientists agree would dramatically increase vulnerability to climate-fuelled disruption. hydrofluorocarbons (or HFCs, the potent help the state lower emissions to 80 per cent heat-trapping gases commonly used as below 1990 levels by mid-century. Real opportunity refrigerants). Together, these five account All US states will be required to comply A visible first step toward this goal is the US- for more than half of total US GHG with new national power plant standards, proposed climate commitment – its Intended emissions. Curbing emissions from these which are expected to become final in June. Nationally Determined Contribution sectors, therefore, is critical for the US to WRI’s analysis shows that for many, it won’t (INDC) in UN parlance – released on 31 achieve its national climate goals. be a heavy burden and greater efficiency March 2015. In it, the US administration and innovation could enhance economic said it will reduce its GHG emissions to Laying the groundwork opportunity. between 26 and 28 per cent below 2005 The US Climate Action Plan, released Based on existing infrastructure, many levels by 2025, a goal that is challenging by the Obama administration in 2013, states can cut emissions by relying more on but achievable. Meanwhile, as part of a laid some of the groundwork for a more natural gas, installing more combined heat US-China announcement last November aggressive stance on climate. Rather than and power at large facilities, like universities in Beijing, China has committed to limiting pushing for legislation in a politically and hospitals, and making on-site efficiency its carbon dioxide emissions so that they polarised Congress, the President’s plan improvements at coal plants. Some 29 states peak by 2030 or perhaps even earlier. The aims at change through federal regulations already have renewable energy standards historic joint climate announcement by these and state-level action. WRI’s paper, Can the and about 25 have energy efficiency two economic powerhouses offers essential US Get There from Here?, demonstrates that standards. And because supply and demand- momentum for other nations to build on. by using power plant standards and energy side efficiency saves energy, these measures The climate challenge is filled with efficiency while reducing methane emissions can be cost-effective and could lower real opportunity. With job creation and and moving away from HFCs, the climate electricity bills in the long run. Many states economic growth in prospect for nations targets set out by the US can be met. found that using more renewable energy that lead on low-carbon technologies, As the federal government clicks into brought consumer prices down. gear on climate action, it joins leaders of cities, states and regions who are Portland: a success story Firefighters combat brush fires that rage out of control already responding to the challenge. In As former mayor of the environmentally in drought-parched southern California, USA nine Northeast and mid-Atlantic states, focused city of Portland, Oregon, I have seen

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up close how climate action and economic while population and the economy grew. Summit last September, is the world’s development can and must go hand in Global companies – including wind largest coalition of city leaders addressing hand. Five years ago, Portland integrated turbine maker Vestas, renewable energy climate change. Its signatories pledge to its climate action strategy with a push to firm Iberdrola and networking company reduce their GHG emissions, track their develop the economy and create jobs in a Alcatel-Lucent – were drawn to this progress and prepare for the impacts of plan called We Build Green Cities. Focusing revitalised metropolitan area. changing climate. While over the past 20 on clean technology and professional One key to our success was linking years, US federal interest in climate has services companies, Portland encouraged climate action and sustainability from the waxed and waned, cities have helped lead environmentally sustainable construction start. These efforts can’t be an afterthought the way with innovative approaches and and eco-district planning to make for cities, states and countries that want cost-effective policies. neighbourhoods walkable, bike-able and economic as well as environmental benefits. Climate action in US cities is in line connected by transit and bike corridors to cut Most mayors don’t have the luxury of with polling that shows the vast majority down on the need for cars, as well as deeply wallowing in partisan politics. They have of Americans favour government action to self-sufficient in terms of energy. We created to provide services that people demand in combat climate change and deal with its 900 bioswales – landscape features designed a cost-effective way. Often the clean, low- worst impacts. That includes nearly half of to remove silt and pollutants from surface carbon option has the greatest value over all Republicans who responded, reflecting run-off – to make the city greener and keep the traditional approaches. a growing potential that the partisan divide rainwater from flooding our streets. on climate can be overcome. The city’s carbon emissions dropped Getting the world on track Even as those with vested interests in the 11 per cent between 1990 and 2013, What’s true for Portland is becoming true high-carbon status quo continue to block of other cities around the globe – and these action and spread misinformation, climate Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Gina McCarthy signs US President Obama’s new successes can also be achieved at the state, science has only gotten clearer, and the carbon pollution emission guideline plan, the national and global level. The Compact scientific consensus has only gotten deeper. centrepiece of the Climate Action Plan, June 2014 of Mayors, launched at the UN Climate There is also mounting evidence that climate action and economic growth can go together, as demonstrated by New Climate Economy’s Better Growth, Better Climate report. The American public and many US city leaders have made their needs known: they want the United States to lead, working with the international community to address the effects of a changing climate. In a recent New York Times/Stanford University poll, US voters said they would support a US commitment to an international agreement to reduce global emissions. As we head to the next big opportunity in December, the US can draw on its recent experience to play a leading role. Its commitment to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 per cent is significant, but it shouldn’t stop there. The United States has the opportunity to accelerate efforts to decarbonise its economy over time and in doing so, help the world get on track to tackle climate change. But it can’t be done by just one big country – or two or 10. All countries need to come together to recognise the benefits of robust climate action for people, communities and the economy. By seizing these opportunities, the world is poised to

What mechanisms, on national and global levels, can be deployed to ensure that both private and public investment is directed towards green growth?

By Helen Mountford, Director of Economics, growth models that led to the economic climate change at the same time. The World Resources Institute; Program Director, crisis are no longer sustainable. At the same Better Growth, Better Climate report of New Climate Economy initiative time, people, businesses and governments the New Climate Economy project ﬁnds are recognising the enormous economic and that we need to invest approximately $90 ver the next 15 years, the world social risks associated with a changing climate trillion in infrastructure worldwide by 2030 economy will experience a massive and the need to urgently shift towards low- to meet development needs. The report Otransition. In developing and carbon and climate-resilient growth paths. demonstrates how recent technological emerging economies, major investments Thankfully, future economic growth developments (such as dramatically falling will be needed to eradicate poverty, provide does not have to copy the high-carbon, costs of renewable energy), as well as access to energy and clean water, and unevenly distributed model of the past. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon tours Masdar ensure liveable cities. In parallel, developed Countries at all levels of income now have Institute of Science and Technology in Masdar City, Abu economies are embracing programmes of the opportunity to build lasting economic Dhabi. Masdar City is a zero-carbon development that structural change, recognising that the old growth and reduce the immense risks of is designed to be a hub for clean-tech companies

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opportunities to save money (e.g. through the design of compact and connected cities), mean that the investment needs could be about the same whether we follow a high- carbon, polluting pathway or an efﬁcient, healthy, low-carbon pathway. But we need to invest well and make the right choices now.

Investment for better, low-carbon growth There is an enormous potential for profitable investment in greater efficiency, structural transformation, and technological change in cities, energy systems and land use. The New Climate Economy has found that meeting a low-carbon path consistent with the internationally agreed goal of keeping global average temperature rise below 2°C will require less than an additional five per cent in upfront investment compared to the business-as-usual scenario. Lower operational costs, for example, and reduced fuel expenditures through a transition toward clean energy, could offset these additional investment costs and lead to net savings of $1 trillion to 2030, again compared to the business-as-usual scenario. Financing the transition to a better and greener economy will require decisive, early and ambitious action. With the right policies, governments can achieve the necessary investments in low-carbon Minimising the risks of asset stranding Wind turbines at the Beberibe Wind Farm, Brazil. The renewables sector in the country has benefited from infrastructure and reduce the risks of With the right policies, the risk and costs investment support by the Brazilian Development Bank expensive stranded assets – i.e. assets that of asset stranding will be minimal. The are no longer able to earn an economic New Climate Economy estimates that return as a result of changes in the market even including stranded asset costs, the minimise asset stranding and successfully and regulatory environment. If done full investment impact of a low-carbon meet the International Energy Agency’s correctly, the low-carbon transition will transition in the electricity sector would be low-carbon scenarios. In the United States result in a win-win scenario for economic a net financial benefit of up to $1.8 trillion and Europe, many coal plants are being development and the planet. from 2015 to 2035. closed rather than upgraded to meet new The New Climate Economy has found The Better Growth, Better Climate report air pollution regulations. Over the next few that win-win actions that simultaneously highlighted the particular importance of decades, many more coal-fired power plants boost growth and reduce climate risk moving away from coal-powered energy could be retired as they reach the end of could account for at least 50 per cent, and generation. Across all fossil fuels, coal their natural lives or as they are no longer potentially as much as 90 per cent, of the holds the largest emissions-reductions economically viable. emissions reductions needed by 2030 to put potential. Reducing coal use could achieve For governments, the best way to us on a pathway to keeping global warming nearly 80 per cent of the fossil fuel-related minimise the cost of asset stranding is to at safe levels. However, if action is delayed CO2 emissions reductions in a low-carbon send clear and unambiguous policy signals or governments continue to send mixed scenario. It is also particularly damaging to about future economic direction. Currently, signals, for example through subsidising health, with coal-burning one of the major ambiguity in many governments’ energy fossil fuel use and production, the costs contributors to the seven million people policies creates high uncertainty, which of this transition and the risk that existing dying prematurely each year as a result of reduces jobs, investment and growth. Strong, or new infrastructure will need to be air pollution. The progressive phase-out predictable carbon pricing would make prematurely scrapped will increase. of coal plants in the developed world could clear that high-carbon assets are risky and

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For example, it is estimated that the cost of ﬁnancing in India can add between 24-32 per cent to the cost of renewable energy. However, there are encouraging developments among a number of middle-income countries, for example the signiﬁcant investments by the Brazilian Development Bank in renewables, and successes in China in providing low-cost, long-term debt for clean energy.

© Adriano Machado/Bloomberg via Getty Images via Getty © Adriano Machado/Bloomberg In low-income countries, policy and government instability and lack of financial capacity can be major barriers for investments in energy systems and infrastructure, such that multilateral banks and development finance institutions need to play a much more crucial role. Platforms such as the Green Climate Fund, Sustainable Energy for All, and the Climate Finance Innovation Lab focus on the particular demands of low-income countries by funding adaptation and mitigation actions, designing specific equity funds, etc. While climate finance will make up only a small part of the total financing needs for sustainable infrastructure, if used wisely its funds could be a catalyst for, and critical complement to, further public and private finance. Globally, a mix of financial innovation, greater targeting of development bank create a robust business case for investment example, focus exclusively on owning and finance and concessional debt, and in a low-carbon economy. Transparent and operating portfolios of renewable assets increased development capital flows mandatory disclosure on the carbon exposure that are largely free of fuel, market and into low-income countries will be of companies and investments would be an technology risks, providing investors with essential. Regulators and investors should important step towards better understanding predictable revenues over 15 to 20 years. work together to develop financing and managing such risks. Meanwhile, green investment banks arrangements and industry structures that are becoming increasingly important for better suit the characteristics of low-carbon Mechanisms for green financing low-carbon finance. While they currently assets in different geographies. With the Much of the investment needed for low- account for only a small portion of the right regulatory regime and financial carbon infrastructure could be delivered financing landscape, green banks have been intermediation in place, the apparent through existing mechanisms with the successfully leveraging private capital and ‘riskiness’ of low-carbon assets is likely to help of supportive policy and market proving that low-carbon investment can prove to be lower than that of the more signals. Some additional investment will be profitable. For example, the UK Green volatile fossil fuel assets. require new, efficient finance structures. Investment Bank expects to earn taxpayers The opportunities to drive economic Governments can support the direction an average return of eight per cent per growth and climate risk reduction together of private finance through regulation, year. It is estimated that such financial are enormous, but time is not on our side. incentives, co-investment, risk-sharing instruments could reduce the financing costs The next 10 to 15 years will be critical. instruments and other policy measures. for low-carbon electricity by 20 per cent. If governments commit to a low-carbon In high-income countries, various finance In middle-income countries, public economy, act quickly, and implement effective tools have been used in recent years to capital can play a key role in lowering financial mechanisms, they can maximise provide investors direct access to low-carbon finance costs, which are otherwise so high the economic benefits while minimising the infrastructure, including YieldCos, municipal that they obscure cost advantages from financial and social risks. Now is the time to finance, and green bonds. YieldCos, for lower labour and construction costs. seize these opportunities.

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Unburnable carbon and the carbon bubble

What is the scale of unburnable carbon and the carbon bubble in global ﬁnancial markets? When and how might a correction take place and what impact might it have on the global economic system?

By Simon Zadek, Co-Director, UN too slowly to halt, let alone reverse, the Environment Programme Inquiry into Design potentially fatal damage. Options for a Sustainable Financial System; Financial markets are continuing to visiting scholar, Tsinghua School finance, and in the short term profit of Economics and Management; from, carbon-intensive investments. Senior Fellow, International Institute for Such investments pump carbon into the Sustainable Development atmosphere that will be with us for thousands of years, and cumulatively impact billions of o more than 1,000 gigatons of people long after the investors have reaped carbon can be emitted into the their financial rewards. That these investors Natmosphere for the forseeable may at some later date switch their bets to future to have a chance of keeping global clean technology will not make up for the temperature rises under 2ºC. This carbon damage done. Under-pricing carbon in budget is not a lot, given that we currently investment decisions is in effect shorting emit almost 40 gigatons per annum globally, civilisation itself, making money by betting and this number is rising. Even levelling on our demise. And like more conventional off would only give us another couple of shorting in financial markets, the bet itself is decades of budget left, after which the vast bringing about the very outcome the gambler majority of people alive today, plus those yet can profit from. to be born, would face an uncertain future. Carbon emissions are a self-inflicted Dramatic transition wound, caused by economic activities Nobel Prize winner Al Gore and others costs and increased use of renewable energy invented before we understood their have argued that we are experiencing generation, just as the profitability of carbon- full implications, providing a legacy of history’s greatest-ever financial bubble, a emitting industries is being impacted by over 1,000GWs of coal-fired electricity ‘carbon bubble’ caused by the systematic increasingly robust carbon markets and taxes generation and over one billion cars on under-pricing of carbon risk. Estimates from California to Tianjin. Meanwhile, the our roads worldwide. Investments that vary, but one suggests that $28 trillion of fortunes of companies selling bottled water will transition us to a low-carbon, climate- assets are highly vulnerable to a downward are under threat as communities block access resilient economy are happening, but not at adjustment of the price of carbon in the to scarce water resources. the speed and scale needed. face of the impacts of climate change itself, Such asset stranding is at an early stage. Global investment in renewables increased and the many associated transitional effects, Inevitable progress will be desperately by 17 per cent in 2014, yet 116 out of 140 including policy measures, technology painful as industries degenerate and the countries registered a deterioration in their breakthroughs and new business models. value collapses of pension funds reliant on stock of natural capital. That is, financial For some, the bubble has already burst. carbon-intensive assets. The employment, markets are responding to environmental- Electricity utility companies find their assets economic, geopolitical and military effects related risks and opportunities, but far compromised by the effects of the falling should not be under-estimated as we move

Drilling ship and rigs in the waters of the Gulf of A robust and widely applied carbon price regulators to ensure that the financial Mexico at the site of the 2010 BP oil spill would make a major difference – carbon system effectively prices risk, communicates markets have had a challenging childhood, risks and opportunities to the owners of through a transition as dramatic as the but prospects looking forward are good. capital, and secures the stability and wider original industrial revolution. Yet failure to Technology breakthroughs and falling resilience of the financial system itself to rapidly pop the bubble carries far greater clean technology costs will make a growing potential future shocks. penalties, although as much care as possible difference. South Africa’s fifth renewables Here again, there are a growing number must be taken to provide safety nets for procurement round is experiencing bid prices of these stewards of the financial system vulnerable individuals, communities and of around 40 per cent less than the expected itself, particularly in developing countries even nations. kwh cost of the country’s new-build, state-of- from Brazil to China, Kenya to Indonesia, Several things might burst the bubble the-art, coal-fired power station. driving forward innovations in financial more quickly. A strong climate deal in Paris Reforming the financial system, finally, policies, regulations and standards with would establish emissions-reductions targets would offer a powerful contribution to the express purpose of better aligning worldwide, and provide a potential ‘tipping- bursting the carbon bubble. It is, after the financial system with the needs of point’ signal to the business community. all, the task of central banks and financial sustainable development.

CLIMATE 2020 Enaex Prillex Complex, at Mejillones, Chile. Wall control at mining The world’s largest AN production site site using Hidrex® with 850,000 Mton of nominal capacity

Enaex Our principles on sustainable growth: Enaex is a world leader Safety as a non-negotiable value in ammonium nitrate In 2013, after many years of working on safety measures, the company (AN) production and rock reduced its accident rate to just 2.01, meaning an average of 0.02 days fragmentation for mining lost per worker – one of the lowest rates in the industry. industry and civil works. Established 94 years Low-carbon ammonium nitrate production ago, Enaex is committed Through both its CDM projects, Enaex has reached more than 4 million to the sustainable growth JLY[PÄLKLTPZZPVUYLK\J[PVUZ*,9ZHUKOHZ[OLSV^LZ[LTPZZPVUZYH[L and development of [*6LI`[VUULVMHTTVUP\TUP[YH[L^P[OPU[OLPUK\Z[Y` all its stakeholders, seeing *VU[PU\V\ZS`WYVTV[LLULYN`LɉJPLUJ` sustainability not simply In 2014, the Chilean Energy Ministry awarded Enaex with the energy as another task to LɉJPLUJ`Z[HTWMVYHWYVQLJ[\ZPUNZ\YWS\ZZ[LHT[VYLWSHJLLULYN`MYVT perform, but as a deeply [OLNYPK;OPZWYVQLJ[HSSV^LK,UHL_[VILJVTL LULYN`ZLSMZ\ɉJPLU[ embedded part of its Education as a way of adding value to the community long-term strategy One of the company’s social commitments is to provide ongoing support for education and technical-professional training within the community. In 7YPSSL_(TLYPJH7SHU[WPJ[\YLKHIV]LSVJH[LKPU4LQPSSVULZ*OPSL VɈLYLKHULPNO[TVU[OPU[LYUZOPWMVY[LUSVJHSZ[\KLU[Z Innovation as a way of creating long-term value in the relationship with customers and suppliers Innovation in processes and products for its customers and suppliers in areas such as safety, sustainability and infrastructure is a key concern for ,UHL_-YHNTLU[H[PVUJVU[YVSYLK\J[PVUVMTPUPUNÄULZZ[HIPSP[`VMTPUL walls and saving energy are all areas in which Enaex works to improve during the blasting process.

These developments, as well as core values-based leadership of the company, led to Enaex’s CEO earning the “2013 Innovation Leader” award from PwC.

www.enaex.com OnSite Solutions for Mining Industry and Civil Works MAKING IT HAPPEN 141

Connecting climate and development ﬁnance Developing climate-resilient communities and infrastructure is a crucial element of any climate change solution. Agreeing how to ﬁnance this will be one of the year’s key decisions © Zbigniew Bzdak/Chicago Tribune/MCT via Getty Images via Getty Tribune/MCT Bzdak/Chicago © Zbigniew

By Rachel Kyte, Vice President and Special majority of sectors critical to sustainable, Building the Mirebalais National Teaching Envoy for Climate Change, World Bank Group Hospital in Haiti, a completely solar-powered, inclusive economic development. Even with state-of-the-art hospital provided by the non-proﬁt very ambitious mitigation action, warming organisation Partners in Health and its supporters t the World Bank Group, our close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels twin goals – ending poverty and by mid-century is already locked in to the Aboosting shared prosperity – are the Earth’s atmospheric system and climate That’s why if you care about development, priorities that orient our actions every day. change impacts such as extreme heat events you have to care about climate change. Climate change is not just an environmental may now be unavoidable. challenge. It is a fundamental threat to our Rising temperatures mean more extreme Good development is resilient development ability to achieve these development goals. weather that puts lives and property at risk. We know that the impacts of climate change The evidence is clear: climate change These changes increase the vulnerability will hit the poorest and most vulnerable compounds risks and challenges across a of the poor to famine, drought and disease. the hardest.

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From 1980 to 2012, global disaster- warning systems are among the most related losses amounted to $3,800 billion. cost-effective solutions. Every $1 invested Weather extremes from 18,200 events in early warning systems can provide as caused 87 per cent of reported disasters, much as $36 in economic benefits and save 74 per cent of losses equalling $2,800 countless lives. billion, and 1.4 million or 61 per cent of lives lost. Recent studies show that Financing for development communities facing the highest future With the Financing for Development poverty risk have the lowest capacity in Conference in Addis Ababa and the Paris climate risk preparedness.1 climate conference rapidly approaching, we need to establish clearly how we will finance development in a world shaped by climate Climate action does not change. At the same time, we will need to finance the incremental costs of low-carbon require economic sacrifice. growth and development that is resilient. Smart policy choices can Let’s be clear about the scale of the challenge before us: the finance required deliver economic, health for an orderly transformation to a growing and climate benefits low-carbon and resilient economy is counted in the trillions, not billions. The decisions we make this year on how to Enhancing resilience – the ability to use scarce public resources and leverage resist, cope with and recover from shocks – financing and action from others will lay can reduce the impact of disasters. Climate the foundation for action for decades to and disaster resilience should therefore come. In the period to 2030, the global be an integral part of national policies economy will require $89 trillion in and development assistance, particularly infrastructure investment across cities, in the poorest and most vulnerable energy and land-use systems and $4.1 countries. trillion in incremental investments for the Coastal communities and small island low-carbon transition required.3 states in particular are already feeling At the same time, we need to find the impact of climate change. Almost pathways to the annual $100 billion of public half a billion people live in coastal areas, and private financing by 2020, promised at vulnerable to storm surges and sea-level the UN climate conference in Copenhagen, rise. A recent study estimated that the that will support climate action. We believe world’s 136 largest cities – in developed that there are different pathways we could and developing countries – could be facing take. Many analyses show that much of that annual flood losses of $1 trillion by 2050, if $100 billion, under the most conservative cities don’t take steps to adapt. estimates, is already flowing and that finance institutions were to take similar Yet, support for disaster preparedness and multilateral development banks and other steps we could make a significant prevention remains low. Over the past two development finance organisations play a contribution to mobilising needed finance. decades, the international community has critical role in that flow and in leveraging With current low oil prices there is an committed $106.7 billion to disaster aid. private finance. While there has been opportunity to do more. Governments can Of these resources, $69.9 billion was spent progress, including the $10 billion in pledges phase out harmful fossil fuel subsidies and, on disaster response and $23.3 billion on to the Green Climate Fund, more is needed. in developed countries, consider redirecting reconstruction and rehabilitation. Just $13.5 The World Bank Group currently a portion of the revenue towards climate billion went to risk-reduction measures commits around $11 billion a year to action in developing countries. before the onset of disasters. climate action. We believe that with the This could be complemented with steps Adapting to climate change and building support of our shareholders, we could do to put a price on carbon – through taxation, resilience may have an upfront investment more in the future. We are exploring ways markets or other instruments. Carbon cost. But, if well designed, prevention and to increase our financing capacity and pricing will help reduce emissions, encourage preparedness can be more cost-effective investments in adaptation. If multilateral low-carbon growth and unlock much-needed in the long run than disaster relief.2 Early development banks and other development financing. Pricing carbon through a carbon

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working with a new partnership to deploy 100 million clean cookstoves by 2020. A lot of climate action is common sense and necessary for development – like public transit. Our Adding up the Benefits report showed how policies promoting clean transportation and energy efficiency in industries and buildings will also lead to global growth. For example, if India built 1,000 km of new bus rapid-transit lanes, over 20 years that could save more than 27,000 lives by reducing air pollution and accidents and create more than 128,000 jobs. It could also reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 42 million tonnes. We live in a rapidly urbanising world. Just over half the global population is urban today. By 2050, cities are expected to hold two-thirds of the world population. That’s 2.5 billion more urban residents that the world’s cities will need to support in the very near future. Cities are a big part of the solution to meet the climate challenge, as they account for roughly two-thirds of the world’s overall energy consumption and 80 per cent of the global greenhouse gas emissions. We need to act now, because once a city sprawls and its shape is determined, it is difficult to undo, with negative impacts for low- carbon growth. In the next 20 years, we will build more infrastructure than we have built in the past 6,000 years. We have an opportunity to ensure these unprecedented development efforts are low-carbon and © UNICEF/Estey resilient. Infrastructure needs to be built and jobs created in a climate-smart context. tax or carbon market mechanism can raise A student with her teacher in a new, quake-resistant We can choose to develop low-carbon school in the Aceh district, Sumatra, Indonesia. revenue while also encouraging emissions The school was rebuilt after the entire district was energy sources like geothermal, solar and reductions. A $25 per tonne price on carbon devastated by the tsunami in December 2004 wind; build smart cities; and develop clean dioxide emissions could mobilise $25 billion transportation. And we can and must act to $50 billion a year if developed countries choices can deliver economic, health and now, because it will be far cheaper and less allocated a small portion of carbon pricing climate benefits. For example, the soot from disruptive than what we face if we delay. revenues for developing countries.4 open cooking fires, still common in parts of 1 World Bank (2013). Building Resilience: Integrating And we need to build on the rapid growth Asia and Africa, contributes to 4.3 million Climate and Disaster Risk into Development. in the green bond market, including greater deaths from air pollution in developing 2 Government of the UK (2012). Foresight: Reducing use of local-currency green bonds and asset- countries every year – and to climate change, Risks of Future Disasters – Priorities for Decision Makers. Final Project Report. The Government backed bonds in emerging markets. particularly the melting of snow and glaciers. Office for Science, London. Clean cookstoves that reduce soot are a 3 Figures from the New Climate Economy Report Climate-smart planning for the future simple but effective way to clean up indoor 2014. 4 Estimate by the Advisory Group on Climate The good news is that climate action does air, reduce respiratory illnesses, save lives Change Financing convened by the UN Secretary- not require economic sacrifice. Smart policy and reduce a driver of climate change. We’re General in 2010.

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By Okey Daniel Ogbonnaya, Regional Coordinator, Sub-Saharan Africa, Green Ethiopian initiative Growth Planning and Implementation division, Global Green Growth Institute Ethiopia is aiming for development with zero net thiopia has an ambition to become growth in carbon emissions and has committed a middle-income country by to building a climate-resilient green economy E2025. It also recognises that traditional development – through carbon intensiﬁcation and environmental degradation – is not sustainable. The country has therefore committed to building a climate-resilient green economy (CRGE). This economy will be able to withstand the © Tiksa Negeri/Reuters © Tiksa

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shocks presented by a changing climate. Increasing resilience The beauty of this strategy is that it Moreover, it will be delivered through Ethiopia is extremely vulnerable to climate serves as a great tool for policymakers zero-carbon growth (i.e. no increase in change. There is a critical need to increase and practitioners to clearly understand net emissions from today’s level). The resilience to climate variability and shocks the impacts and costs of the different government understands this vision will since the country currently depends to agriculture and forestry-related plans, require a coordinated and sustained effort a great extent on agriculture. On the and the key hazards and the response by all parts of the Ethiopian society – civil other hand, as the country moves towards measures to combat the negative impacts society, academia, and, most importantly, industrialisation, the need to promote green of climate change. the public. technologies and solutions in its industries To make sure that these strategies and service sector becomes crucial for are translated into implementable actions, A worker on the electrified light rail transit sustainable growth. different systems and plans that are construction site in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa. The $475 million light rail system, contracted by the Therefore, as Ethiopia promotes crucial to responding to climate change China Railway Group Limited, should transform the lives growth on the one hand, it is also are being put in place and existing ones of more than five million people in the capital promoting sustainability on the other, strengthened. thus simultaneously using climate change Most importantly, early lessons from as an agenda to promote growth and implementation are being fed back into sustainability. the design of plans and systems. However, How realistic are the goals and what will one of the challenges that remains is that be key to the initiative’s success? I would these actions will need a lot of financing to say most important is the commitment of implement. Thus the government has set the government of Ethiopia, at the highest up a CRGE facility, which is a financing level, to achieve its ambition to become a mechanism to implement the CRGE middle-income country by 2025 through a initiative. green growth path. A customised approach How the Ethiopian model can be translated to other countries seeking to As Ethiopia promotes develop out of low-income status is a very growth on the one hand, important question and one that both local and international experts, governments it is also promoting and development practitioners around sustainability on the other, the world are asking. The answer is not straightforward. thus simultaneously using The fact is that green growth requires climate change as an a customised approach that takes into account the specific circumstances of agenda to promote growth each country. It is necessary to find an and sustainability appropriate combination of a top-down and bottom-up model to best support a country’s green growth ambitions. It is also important to consider the level of When compared with other developing each country’s working scope, and whether countries in the same income-level bracket, planning is done at the national, state, Ethiopia has set a great example by creating provincial or local levels. the institutions needed to achieve the goals In GGGI, where we are working with set out in the CRGE plan. several developing-country partners, there Moreover, there are concrete strategies is constant engagement with government that have been developed and rolled out to on a daily basis to support them in make sure that these goals are achieved. For designing a process to set clear objectives example, the country has developed, with and mandates for a green growth plan. the support of the Global Green Growth However, while lessons from success cases Institute (GGGI), a climate-resilient like Ethiopia can serve as a reference, there strategy for agriculture and forestry. is no one-size-fits-all.

CLIMATE 2020 SPONSORED FEATURE

Value rises as carbon falls If managing risk in sustainable energy is a barrier to entry, partnership with an experienced investor can open the gate

Low interest rates and volatile markets are encouraging The barometer swings back to renewable energy Q investment in real assets, as securities offer lower and The expected political resistance to renewable energy in By Anne Mieke more volatile returns. Investors are realising that they can 2012 evaporated in 2013 as the barometer indicated that van der Werf access green energy markets, underpinned by real assets, renewable energy was needed to ensure the resilience of the Director Energy without taking on the operational challenge of managing a power system in the face of extreme weather events, such & Climate, wind turbine or the task of evaluating its risk. as floods in Pakistan, superstorms in the US and drought Triodos Investment Investing hand-in-hand with experienced investment in Australia. Management managers can allow investors at every level to support growth By 2014, clean energy was clearly gaining more in renewable energy while profiting from an asset that is momentum, helped by rapidly falling costs. Global investment sustainable; the carbon-based economy is not. in solar, wind and other renewable energy installations Investors need to consider at which phase in the project increased 17% to $270.2 billion in 2014 and for the first time they will enter, at developmental or operational phase. By topped the 100-gigawatt mark.1 entering projects early in the developmental phase, qualified However, this momentum is from a small base. The gains investors can play a game-changing role on the impact a represent a fraction of the change needed to limit the global project has and its effect on the wider world. temperature increase of 2ºC, beyond which the planet faces Understanding the value drivers and transaction severe harm. The European Union’s own target to supply structures of this sector allow the end investor to realise the 20% of the total energy demand from clean energy sources greatest benefits by supporting a project to the point at which by 2020, increasing to 27% by 2030, is a leap away from it offers greatest returns at every level. With a guiding hand the average 5% to 10% of supply that currently exists in the from experienced investment managers, earlier entry, greater European region. Real change must come from committed and more sustainable returns are within reach. capital and committed political support. SPONSORED FEATURE

Triodos Investment Management Triodos Investment Management, a 100% subsidiary of Triodos Bank, has a long-standing track record as an impact investor and is accessible to the full range of investors, such as private investors, qualified investors, high-net worth individuals and institutional investors. Triodos Investment Management provides an experienced pair of hands that allows these three groups of investors to With a trend of global investment in solar, wind and other achieve their varying goals while staying close enough to renewable energy installations increasing, investment levels the ground to effectively manage risk. Having first invested in 2014, with $270.2 billion, approached the 2011 record level in wind turbines during the early 1980s, Triodos has grown clean energy investment of $278.8 billion. And even more to manage over €800 million in assets under management remarkably, clean energy investment in developing nations is within the field of energy and climate today. With these about to overtake that investment in developed countries. projects Triodos provides an equivalent of clean energy for The signals for renewable energy are favourable and more than 320,000 households and avoid 430,000 tonnes the sector provides significant investment opportunities of CO2-emissions. for a range of investors with varying risk profiles. Managing investment in this sector requires a long track record with Triodos Renewables Europe Fund has a target return of 5-7% committed investors. The breadth of initiatives in the sector and the projects it has invested in generated approximately will support all investment appetites. High-net worth 413 GWh in 2014, which provided more than 118,000 individuals and smaller institutional investors often partner households with clean energy and subsequently reduced with specialist investors to select renewable energy because CO2 emissions by approximately 148,000 tonnes per year. they can create a certain impact, whether generating clean On a like-for-like basis the sites in the portfolio of our UK energy, providing energy efficiency solutions or directly company, Triodos Renewables plc, generated 4.5% more replacing fossil fuels. Institutional investors often want major renewable electricity in 2014 than in the previous year, renewable energy projects, such as large offshore wind enough to supply 32,0807 UK homes and, with the addition farms, with which they can heavily contribute to a more of three new sites into the portfolio, the overall generation environmentally friendly society. has increased by 18.6%. When a house is on fire, the short view is to rescue the family silver, the long view is to put out the fire. By committing Triodos Greenfund, the first green investment fund in The effort and resources, investors can have both profitability and Netherlands (1998), is currently the largest fund managed by sustainability. Renewable energy needs the support of every Triodos Investment Management. The Fund has an open end investor; there are developments to suit all appetites and structure with daily tradability and provides long-term senior more importantly to deliver a sustainable market. Committing debt to non-listed green projects and companies. now can bring benefits in perpetuity. Further information:

1 United Nations Environment Programme (April 2015). www.triodos.com/en/investment-management 148 MAKING IT HAPPEN

The business case for tackling climate change

Often seen as the villain of the piece, business has a vital role to play in helping to deal with climate change. But if business is to take the radical steps needed to avoid planetary catastrophe, it must treat climate change as an opportunity, not a threat

By James Smith, Chairman, the Carbon Trust the world’s energy system is simple and stark. deploying the technologies we already know The global economy needs to decarbonise by about. Delaying early action using known he voice of business is not loud a factor of ten in the first half of this century. technologies in the hope of some future enough in the climate change debate. That means getting a unit of economic miracle technology would be dangerous TThere are several reasons. Business output for less than a third of the energy optimism. is seen by some as being at the root of input and getting a unit of energy for less The fact that low-carbon technologies the climate change problem and is often than a third of the carbon emissions. exist is clear from a report in September regarded as being unwilling to incur the The world’s energy system is vast and the 2014 by the UN Deep Decarbonisation costs of avoiding environmental damage. assets have long lifetimes. We are already Pathways Project. In addition, the Also, business might not be a trusted well behind schedule on getting emissions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate partner in discussions about the best policies down. The energy sector transformed Change (IPCC) published a report in April for carbon mitigation. society. Now the energy sector must itself 2014 that included analysis showing that the Businesses themselves may be unwilling urgently be transformed. costs of beating climate change could more to speak up because they are daunted by than double if CCS is not deployed. This the scale and pace of change that carbon The technology exists, if imperfect emphasises the importance of using all the mitigation will require. Existing businesses Yet this is not a problem of unavailability major low-carbon technologies. may be worried they will be swept aside of technology. A set of technologies, But although the technologies exist, by completely new technologies and admittedly none perfect, exists to get the job mobilisation has been much too slow. It competitors. They may be fearful that done on low-carbon energy. is very probable that negative emission governments may make errors on low- We should not be squeamish or choosy. technologies, especially biomass and CCS, carbon policies resulting in damage to The solutions will come from a broad will be needed. their sector. But an impasse between set of technologies, including a range of governments and business on climate renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and Using market forces change spells danger for the environment storage (CCS) with both fossil fuels and I strongly believe that market forces have and therefore for economies. There is an biomass. Some combination of electricity a vital role in tackling climate change. urgent need for governments and businesses and hydrogen will play much greater Market failures must be corrected but the to make common cause in the fight against roles in transport and heat for homes and market must not be abandoned. Properly climate change. industry. Energy efficiency will come from functioning markets are powerful agents for improvements in every nook and cranny of change. Markets can deploy and redirect The context for change the economy. We do not yet know which resources at great scale. Markets unlock Significant agreement among governments combination of these technologies will work major sources of finance. Markets foster in Paris this year on tackling climate change best. But at the moment it is dangerous innovation. Markets create efficiency and is vital. But such agreement would mark to the climate to exclude any of them. We find the least-cost routes to meeting society’s only the beginnings of the phenomenal should be developing and testing all the goals. In short, we need to change the terms changes required to the world’s energy significant low-carbon technology options. of trade for energy so that markets become system over the coming decades. The climate does not have a reset our servant in beating climate change. The science of climate change is complex button. Our frame of mind should be We must correct the major market but the arithmetic of the essential change to about quickly scaling up, improving and failure of not putting a price on carbon

emissions. Sadly, efforts to do this According to the IPCC, tackling climate The launch of a new, all-electric Tesla car, produced by the entrepreneur Elon Musk. The private sector is very have stalled around the world. But it is change might cost about 1.7 per cent of capable at directing investment and fostering innovation encouraging and fascinating to see that GDP by 2030. That might be around $2 China is pressing ahead with carbon pricing trillion a year. This is just about affordable and carbon markets. but the money needs to be spent wisely. Some sectors are, of course, more affected But because tackling climate change is The market is the best guarantor for cost- than others. Fossil fuels, miners, power so urgent, a carbon price alone is unlikely effective climate action. generators, car makers, paper, steel, cement to get the job done on time. Government and food producers are all in the front line. support for scaling up and evaluating major Why business matters in the climate technologies is vital. change fight The smart choice for business In addition to price, regulation will There are two sets of reasons that business Far-sighted companies should judge play an essential role. It might seem odd is crucial to tackling climate change. that it is better for shareholder value if for business to argue for more regulation. First, business produces energy, uses climate change is tackled sooner rather But regulation for things such as energy energy and makes the paraphernalia we all than later. Sooner means less damage to efficiency in household appliances and cars, use to consume vast amounts of energy. All the environment and economies. Sooner together with regulation for low-carbon aspects of this will need to change. means more time for governments to make fuels would create a level playing field on Second, much of the scientific, sound, globally connected policies. Sooner which businesses can compete. technological, engineering and production gives more time for companies to develop It is crucial we use all the levers in a capacity of society is located in business. And competitive low-carbon technologies. modern market economy to reduce carbon business is set up to do things efficiently. There might be a dispassionate argument emissions quickly and to find the least costly Business has to be mobilised to put our that business should just wait and see way of doing so. energy system onto a low-carbon footing. whether governments can get their act

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together on climate change. But I believe The fossil fuel industry delay will do economic damage. It is in the Fossil fuels are a blessing and a curse. The enlightened self-interest of business to argue blessing is the phenomenal energy density for tackling climate change. The companies of fossilised solar energy, compressed that are best prepared will do best. and stored over millions of years. The But we must not expect companies industrial revolution was founded on this to make changes they cannot pay for. extraordinary energy density. But the curse No company is owed a living. They is the unacceptable environmental impact prosper or die depending on how well of the rapid release of CO2. The way fossil they perform. But the low-carbon energy fuels have been used cannot continue. But market must economically reward those fossil fuel companies can have a future if companies that competitively deliver low- they commit to low-carbon energy. carbon energy. The work of the UN Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project shows What business must do that substantial amounts of fossil fuels will Business must respond to the climate threat still be needed mid-century. It will not be on three levels. realistic to meet all our energy needs cost First, business must speak out loudly effectively only with renewables and nuclear about the urgent need to get carbon power, even with major improvements in emissions down. Businesses should do this energy efficiency. But emissions from fossil individually and, as is happening, through fuels will have to be curbed significantly. associations such as the World Business This is why CCS is so important. Council for Sustainable Development. Each fossil fuel company will choose its Second, businesses should participate own low-carbon energy strategy. No doubt objectively in working out the pathways and they will play to their existing strengths policies that will bring about the essential in technology and engineering. The more changes to the world energy system. These obvious options for them include CCS, pathways and policies must contribute to advanced biofuels that do not compete the thinking about how people can get the with food production and the hydrogen energy they need for the carbon emissions economy both for transport and heat. the planet can afford. There is no guarantee of a future for fossil fuel companies. Their low-carbon responses will have to compete with new technologies We must not expect from new market entrants. But if they plan companies to make well and invest, they have the chance to compete in a low-carbon world. changes they can’t pay for Daunted or invigorated? Tackling climate change can be immediately Third, individual businesses should work attractive for many businesses, some out the product strategies that will enable established and some new. But for many them and their customers to improve other businesses, tackling climate change energy efficiency and reduce carbon dioxide creates significant uncertainty and risk. emissions. These product strategies should It is understandable that some businesses be based on how to be profitable in a more will be daunted by the prospect of tackling sustainable world. climate change. But daunted is a poor frame In taking these actions, companies should of mind in which to face the future. It is engage widely and publish their own much better to recognise that we will all be performance in improving energy efficiency better off if climate change is tackled sooner and getting emissions down. Companies rather than later. Let’s not be daunted. should say whether the changes to their Let’s be invigorated by the challenges and activities are consistent with a total pathway opportunities that a low-carbon energy that will beat climate change. transformation will bring.

CLIMATE 2020 The 21st Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC) has the potential to The LQVWLJDWHDVLJQLßFDQWLQFUHDVHLQWKHOHYHO of ambition, both for governments and for Paris the private sector, in the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions Puzzle and to manage the risks of climate change. IPIECA has been engaging in the various UN fora on climate change for over 20 years and has actively participated in the UNFCCC meetings, from Rio through to Lima.

and global temperature, the world will need to transition to a KEY MESSAGES lower-carbon energy system. IPIECA supports and encourages governments Energy use and CO2 emissions occur far beyond power generation in their efforts to reach an effective and clear and transport to being associated with the manufacturing or provision international agreement to reduce GHG emissions of almost everything we use, buy, wear, eat and do. Transforming the global energy system to such an extent will require transforming many and to manage the risks of climate change. parts of society and economies as well. Addressing the risks of climate change will require The oil and gas industry must be a key part of the climate change DFWLRQVIURPDOOSDUWVRIVRFLHW\6LJQLßFDQWSROLF\ solution. The industry’s history, global reach, knowledge and technical action, technology development and business expertise uniquely positions it to help develop and provide credible response will be needed over many decades. The oil future energy solutions. We are already addressing many of the pieces of the puzzle. To this end, IPIECA has created a series of papers and gas industry can play a key role in helping meet intended to address what we see as key components of efforts to the challenge. address climate change, and to demonstrate our commitment to The members of IPIECA believe it is possible to meeting the challenge: address climate change risks while also meeting growing global energy demand and supporting Meeting energy needs Effective policy economic development. As an industry we are Managing our emissions already taking a range of actions across our own Natural gas operations and products to support these goals. Carbon capture and storage

ver the past two centuries, oil and gas have become Collectively, these pieces of the puzzle also highlight the central pillars of the global energy system, and the main fundamental role and contribution of our industry in addressing the Odrivers of economic development, providing over 50% of challenge of a transition to a low-emissions future. global primary energy supply. While enabling over 200 years of Our industry will continue an open dialogue on the pathway to a industrialisation and development, the use of coal, oil and gas low-emissions future. We underscore the importance of partnerships have contributed substantially to the rise in atmospheric carbon between all sectors and stakeholders to build on existing performance

dioxide (CO2). Non-energy sectors such as cement calcination, and expertise, improve understanding and ultimately make progress agriculture, farming, forestry and land-use change are also major in meeting this complex challenge. Ahead of, during and after COP-21, FRQWULEXWRUVWR*+*HPLVVLRQVDQGHTXDOO\RUPRUHGLIĶFXOWWR IPIECA will redouble its efforts to engage with other stakeholders and mitigate. In order to stabilise atmospheric GHG concentrations governments in the UNFCCC process.

Find out more about IPIECA and our Paris Puzzle work at www.ipieca.org

About IPIECA IPIECA is the global oil and gas industry association for environmental and social issues. We are the industry’s principal channel of communication with the United Nations. IPIECA’s membership covers over half of the world’s oil production. 152 MAKING IT HAPPEN

Environmental policy performance bonds

Linking public debt to CO2 emissions could give governments a strong incentive to deliver on climate change action

By Abdeldjellil Bouzidi, economist and growing in the corporate sector but more Alternatively, the more a government Managing Partner, Emena Advisory and fixed-rate bonds in the government sector reduces CO2 emissions the less interest the Michael Mainelli, Executive Chairman, aren’t needed. There is a huge opportunity to government pays. Z/Yen Group reorient traditional government debt to help Issuing a CO2 bond is a simple and achieve CO2 emission reductions. Why don’t effective way for governments to enhance he supreme decision-making body governments use debt to ‘promise’ investors their funding, provided they engage in of the UN Framework Convention they will hold to their policies, at no cost to reducing their own CO2 emissions or Ton Climate Change (UNFCCC), themselves if they keep their promises? How increase renewable energy generation. the Conference of the Parties (COP), will might this work? CO2 government bonds do not require meet in Paris at the end of 2015 for the 21st promises that the issuer will invest the time. The stakes are high. Climate change CO2 bonds money in green projects. The money can threatens the health and lives of billions of We propose the creation of environmental be used for any government expenditure, people. According to scientists, business as policy performance bonds – call them CO2 such as health, education or infrastructure. usual with uncontrolled carbon emissions government bonds. The interest rates on However, contrary to green bonds with could raise global temperatures by as much these new bond types would be linked a fixed coupon, there is a clear incentive as 4°C by the 2080s. We cannot slow global to CO2 reduction targets. For example, for the issuer to reduce CO2 by whatever warming without slowing CO2 emissions. governments could set a rate of return on means are available, especially ‘costless’ ones Some economists forecast that hurricanes their bonds that pays investors more when such as adhering to CO2 reduction policies. alone could cause the global economy to the proportion of renewable energy over Indeed, the payoff formula ensures that the lose $9.7 trillion in income in the long run,1 a year drops below a target percentage. proceeds of such bonds will be appropriately yet experts are already betting on another climate negotiation failure. And the financial ISSUERS AND INVESTORS OF A CO2 GOVERNMENT BOND challenges are hotting up. Capital investment to address climate change is estimated at $1 ISSUERS INVESTORS trillion per year above a business-as-usual 2 scenario, yet CO2 prices have collapsed. Low oil prices threaten renewable investment. Governments Long-term investors What sane person would invest in low- O Governments willing to signal the O State pension funds carbon scenarios? credibility of their green programmes O Private pension funds What can negotiators do this time in Paris O Insurance companies International financial guarantors O Impact investors (philanthropists, to renew investment in a low-carbon future? and co-investors family offices) Perhaps they should look to public debt as O World Bank O Sovereign funds much as private equity. As for private debt, O European Investment Bank O Endowment funds, e.g. universities private-sector green-bond issuers ‘promise’ O International Finance Corporation O Asset managers with a green focus investors that they will use the funds for green O European Bank for Reconstruction and projects. Private-sector green-bond issuance Development Leading corporate buyers could triple in scale this year and reach $100 O Renewable energy firms billion.3 Meanwhile, since 2007, public sector O Companies with a green focus debt has grown by $57 trillion, around nine per cent per year.4 Fixed-rate bonds are

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invested rather than resulting in under or the closest comparable bonds, inflation- ADVANTAGES FOR CO GOVERNMENT over investment in green projects. 2 linked bonds, investors trust governments BOND INVESTORS For example, let’s assume that Germany not to lie about inflation statistics (much). had used such instruments in 2000. Back On a case-by-case basis, scientists, rating then, renewable energy amounted to six per INVESTOR TYPE BENEFIT FOR agencies or other external auditors INVESTOR cent of Germany’s total power consumption could provide additional guarantees on and the 15-year interest rate was higher governments meeting, or not, their targets. than six per cent. Suppose that the yearly Insurance Hedging climate GDP-linked indexed loans, which have been payoff offered by the German government’s companies risk raised as a possible way to ameliorate Greek 15-year CO2 policy performance bond was State pension Portfolio economic problems, are another example zero per cent, provided Germany achieved funds diversification of policy-performance bonds. Such bonds a one per cent yearly increase in renewable Development Environmental in water or forestry might help with other banks return energy use over 15 years (i.e. reaching environmental targets. Sovereign funds Impact investing 21 per cent in 2015). But if Germany fell Now imagine COP22. With CO2 behind with its renewable energy targets, government bonds we would have clear the bond would pay the difference in bond prices set by markets. Country percentage terms. For example, if Germany negotiator A would say to B, “I see you’re had 10 per cent renewable energy use returns. While we do not recommend the keeping your promises because your CO2 in 2010, then the bond would pay the hypothecation of CO2 government bonds government bond interest payments are difference from where Germany should be (i.e. where the borrower pledges collateral so low”. While B says to A, “I see you’re (16 per cent) and where it actually was (10 to secure the debt), it might be rational keeping your promises as investors now per cent): a net payment of six per cent. for governments to provide low-cost prefer your normal government bonds at In reality, renewables in Germany went capital to producers of renewable energy. lower interest rates to your CO2 bonds from six per cent to 28 per cent in 2014. So By providing incentives to early movers, at higher rates. That’s because they know Germany would have paid zero per cent for governments enable faster adoption rates you’ll meet your carbon targets and never this policy performance bond borrowing and cut their own long-term funding costs. pay those potentially high interest rates.” over 15 years. The buyers of such debt A lot of investors know that they are over- Henry Ford said, “Coming together is a would have been renewable investors trying exposed to climate change risks and under- beginning. Keeping together is progress. to hedge their risk of policy change. exposed to climate change opportunities. Working together is success.” Governments CO2 government bonds could allow long- came together with the UNFCCC. They Private and government winners term investors, such as insurance companies have kept together through a score of “Les promesses n’engagent que ceux qui les or pension funds, to hedge their climate risk COPs. Now they need to work together to écoutent” (promises bind only those who and eventually profit from opportunities align financial and environmental incentives. listen to them) declared Henri Queuille, linked to low-carbon markets. CO2 government bonds monetise those a French politician. According to the Many long-term investors, such as public government promises to investors and UNFCCC, 33 countries have fixed CO2 pension funds or university endowments, each other. reduction objectives, including new joiners face public pressure to divest from fossil fuels from the emerging world like Mexico and invest in more green products. However, 1 NBER Working Paper Series (2014), “The Causal and Russia, but no country seems to have they also have a duty to provide returns. Effect Of Environmental Catastrophe On Long- Run Economic Growth : Evidence From 6,700 clearly aligned financial incentives with CO2 government bonds would allow them Cyclones” – www.nber.org/papers/w20352 environmental ones. We need more than to decarbonise their portfolios and support 2 International Energy Agency (2014), “World Energy Outlook 2014” – www.worldenergyoutlook. government promises. CO2 government public policy, but hedged against government org/publications/weo-2014/ bonds are one of the tools that can move policies changing. 3 Mariana Santibanez and Abhinav Ramnarayan, from promises to commitments. “Green Bond Issuance Could Hit USD100bn Low-carbon technologies such as Global winners In 2015”, Reuters (27 March 2015) – www. reuters.com/article/2015/03/27/green-bonds- geothermal, wind, tidal, wave and solar For such products to be successful, idUSL6N0WT1XB20150327 face a ‘high capital cost, low operating cost’ CO2 measurements need to be trusted. 4 McKinsey Global Institute (2015), “Debt and chasm. Low-carbon technologies are also Fortunately, there are reliable numbers from (Not Much) Deleveraging” – www.mckinsey.com/ insights/economic_studies/debt_and_not_much_ higher risk, leading to higher interest rates the International Energy Agency, national deleveraging when borrowing. A rational producer in statistics offices and regional agencies such 5 See: www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/ the process of adding the next megawatt as Eurostat. Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx and www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/31/ should select carbon-based production over Total energy usage is well monitored. us-set-to-propose-emissions-cuts-of-28-ahead-of- renewable production based on marginal Global CO2 levels are well monitored. For global-climate-treaty

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The long road to Paris

The recent history of efforts to tackleclimate change by the international community tells a story of mixed achievements in a rapidly changing world. Can COP21 succeed where predecessors have failed? © Stephane de Sakutin/AFP/Getty Images © Stephane de Sakutin/AFP/Getty

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By Simon Buckle, Head of Climate Change, require substantial and sustained reductions Biodiversity and Water Division, Environment in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (mostly Directorate, Organisation for Economic CO2, but also other gases such as methane Co-operation and Development (OECD) and and nitrous oxide), meaning action will be Sara Moarif, Climate Policy Analyst, Climate needed from all emitters. Change Expert Group, OECD The approaches taken under the UNFCCC have also changed to reflect ore than 20 years ago, most this new reality. The legally binding but Also in this section countries in the world modest quantified emissions-reduction Msigned and ratified the UN targets for developed countries under the Framework Convention on Climate Kyoto Protocol (by at least five per cent by Change (UNFCCC), which aimed at 2012 compared to 1990) proved inadequate A fair and effective the “stabilization of greenhouse gas to the task. The US never ratified and UN process 158 concentrations in the atmosphere at a level Canada failed to meet its obligations and that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic pulled out. Global fossil-fuel-related CO2 Reaching an interference with the climate system”. As emissions grew much faster after 2000 than a framework convention, it was the start in the 1990s. Participation has shrunk under agreement 160 of an open-ended, evolutionary process. It the Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment also explicitly distinguished between two period to 2020, leaving only 14 per cent of categories of countries – developed and global emissions covered. developing – on the basis of “common but differentiated responsibilities”, with Kyoto legacy average surface temperature to below 2ºC. developed countries having primary However, Kyoto was an important driver of Countries’ plans for emissions reductions responsibility for mitigation and financial flexible, market-based approaches to climate beyond 2020 are now being established. support. (While it does not define the terms policy. The development of the EU GHG ‘developed’ and ‘developing’, countries emissions trading system and of robust Financing and adaptation with responsibilities for mitigation and accounting rules for GHG emissions, as Financial support is a key element of providing financial support are listed in the well as a global GHG offsetting programme this new approach. Developed countries Convention’s Annex I and Annex II.) – the Clean Development Mechanism – are pledged $30 billion of so-called fast-start Since then, the world has changed all part of Kyoto’s legacy. finance for the period 2010-12. They also dramatically. In 1990, the developed Faced with gridlock at the Copenhagen committed in Cancún to mobilise $100 countries listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC UNFCCC conference in 2009, the US, billion each year by 2020 to support climate accounted for over 60 per cent of carbon China, Brazil, India and South Africa change actions in developing countries. The

dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel drafted the Copenhagen Accord (2009) UN established a new facility under the use and developing countries (i.e. those not that catalysed a new bottom-up approach UNFCCC for channelling climate ﬁnance, listed in the annex) less than 40 per cent. based on ‘nationally determined’ mitigation the Green Climate Fund, to provide Now the situation is almost reversed: in pledges and began to bridge the sharp balanced support for both adaptation and 2012, non-Annex I countries accounted for division between action by developed and mitigation activities. As of early April 2015,

approximately 55 per cent of CO2 emissions developing countries. it had received pledges of $10.2 billion. from fossil fuel use. This was mainstreamed into the Continued emission of GHGs will cause For example, China has outstripped both UNFCCC process in the 2010 further warming, increasing the likelihood the EU and US to become the world’s Cancún Agreements, along with an of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts

largest emitter of CO2. Indian emissions are enhanced transparency regime to track for people and ecosystems. Not surprisingly, also growing rapidly, though in per capita implementation and commitments on therefore, the focus on and support for terms they remain well below the world financial support. More than 90 countries, adaptation actions has increased over time. average. As the Intergovernmental Panel including all major emitters, put forward Starting in 2001, a series of processes on Climate Change concluded in its most pledges that took a variety of forms, mostly under the Convention has resulted in tools, recent review, reducing climate risks will covering the period to 2020. In aggregate, methodologies, greater expertise and the they are not, however, thought to be provision of financial and technical support ambitious enough to be consistent with a for adaptation. There is greater emphasis A demonstrator vents his frustration at COP17 in Durban, as representatives from civil society cost-effective emissions-reductions pathway on ensuring sufficient resources for organisations and some of the most vulnerable countries to the long-term target agreed in Cancún adaptation as well as mitigation, and for protested at moves to delay action until 2020 in 2010 of keeping the increase in global countries to take stronger action to enhance

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resilience and a more strategic approach to adaptation planning. Cooperative and collaborative activities outside of, but reinforcing, the UNFCCC process have also gained momentum. Participation has greatly increased: attendance at Kyoto was under 10,000 participants, while Copenhagen exceeded 27,000. Paris this year may be larger still. Events such as the UN Climate Summit in September 2014 have helped to highlight the potential and necessary contribution of non-state actors to tackling climate change. In 2010, 20 countries were responsible for

80 per cent of CO2 emissions. The US and China between them were responsible for about 40 per cent. Decisions taken by a © Reuters smaller group of countries can therefore have an important impact where they align reducing climate risks and building resilience US Secretary of State John Kerry toasts with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in November with and reinforce the UNFCCC process to climate impacts. It aims to finalise a new 2014 after their two countries announced an on mitigation issues. multilateral agreement for tackling climate unprecedented joint plan to cut GHG emissions The US-China announcement in late change that has been under negotiation for 2014 was important in injecting momentum the last four years. This agreement should into the global climate negotiations be universal, have legal force and come into financial support from developed countries in advance of COP21. But it was also effect from 2020. It is expected to cover will be critical to secure this. important at a practical level since both mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology, Some developing countries will also countries set out their respective emissions- capacity building and transparency. require immediate support for adaptation, reduction intentions beyond 2020 and COP21 will also allow the international as well as longer-term support to build agreed additional measures to strengthen community to review and take stock of the resilience. These calls for greater financial and expand bilateral cooperation in areas aggregate effect of the intended nationally support come at a time when public coffers such as clean energy R&D and advancing determined contributions (INDCs) to in developed countries remain under major carbon capture, utilisation and emissions reductions post-2020. At COP19 pressure. This places a premium on the storage demonstrations. in Warsaw, countries had agreed they would need to mobilise significant private finance propose their INDCs before the Paris and improve the enabling conditions A decisive shift is possible COP. The EU, US and China were the for investment. Within the UNFCCC process, the annual first to announce their intended mitigation If these complex issues can be successfully Conference of the Parties (COPs) has efforts. Apart from China, these countries negotiated, the COP21 agreement has the become a focal point for knowledge-sharing have also formally submitted their INDCs potential over time to make a decisive shift outside the formal negotiation process. to the UNFCCC, as have states such as in our collective efforts to limit climate risks. The momentum of the 2014 UN Climate Switzerland, Norway, Mexico, Russia and The long-term challenge is clear: GHG Summit has been maintained and built upon Gabon. The UNFCCC will provide a emissions reaching the atmosphere from by the current and upcoming presidents first assessment of these contributions in energy, industry, transport and land use will of the COP: Peru and France. They have November 2015. Many other organisations have to decline towards around zero or below launched the Lima-Paris Action Agenda, will be poring over the details to assess the on a net basis by the end of this century. and view the collaborative and cooperative implications for the governments’ stated The costs of both action and inaction on pledges and projects stemming from it as an ambition to limit warming to 2ºC. There is climate change will continue to increase the integral part of the COP21 outcome at the likely to be a gap in ambition. longer that action is delayed. While there end of 2015. The Paris agreement therefore needs remains a gap between action and ambition So how significant is the COP21 meeting? to build in flexibility and strong review on emissions reduction, COP21 should help Paris could and should be the beginning of mechanisms to increase and update the countries shape their near-term policies and a dynamic and flexible process that allows all ambition and effectiveness of mitigation actions into a cost-effective and credible countries to contribute, in different measure action over time, for which the UNFCCC pathway to the low-emission, climate reflecting their national circumstances, to process is vital. Adequate and timely resilient future we need.

CLIMATE 2020 GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT GOALS

The United Nations Association – UK will release the next edition of Global Development Goals early next year, following the adoption of the post-2015 development agenda at the special summit at the United Nations General Assembly in September.

Global Development Goals will provide a thorough appraisal of the new Sustainable Development Goals and propose strategies to deliver the transformation to which they aspire.

Written by the world’s leading authorities, Global Development Goals is aimed at policy-makers, practitioners and interested observers.

Launch date: January 2016

For more information, email: [email protected] To download Global Development Goals 2014: www.una.org.uk/gdgs 158 PARIS

A successful outcome in Paris

How should we deﬁne ‘success’ at the UN climate meeting in December? Can we square civil society’s hopes for a robust treaty with the framework that is likely to emerge? © UN Photo/Mark Garten © UN Photo/Mark

By Natalie Samarasinghe, Executive Director, Nonetheless, growing scientific consensus UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon visits Greenland to United Nations Association – UK witness the world’s fastest-moving glacier. Arctic sea ice on the impact of human-made greenhouse set a record this year for its lowest ever winter extent gases (GHGs) led states to adopt the UN ollectively, UN member states Framework Convention on Climate Change have adopted more than 500 (UNFCCC). The treaty aimed to stabilise … and falters Cenvironmental treaties, including GHG concentrations to “prevent dangerous It was not until 1997 that 37 industrialised 17 global agreements on issues ranging anthropogenic interference with the climate nations took on binding emissions targets from biological diversity to desertification. system”. Borrowing from the Montreal under the Kyoto Protocol. It took another Of these, the Montreal Protocol is widely Protocol, it held that the absence of “full eight years for it to enter into force. Kyoto’s touted as the most successful. scientific certainty” should not be used as a effectiveness was curtailed from the outset With 196 parties, the Protocol is reason to postpone action. It made clear that as the US, then the world’s biggest emitter, universal. Agreed shortly after scientists all countries needed to act, with developed did not ratify it. The lack of penalties for observed a ‘hole’ in the ozone layer, it states leading the way, recognising their withdrawing saw Canada pull out in 2011, has succeeded in securing drastic cuts overwhelming historical responsibility for having failed to meet its targets. While the to ozone-depleting substances, with the emissions and the support that developing EU did reach its Kyoto goals, its efforts ozone layer expected to return to pre-1980 countries would need to meet their have reduced in impact as its share of global levels between 2050 and 2075. A similar commitments. emissions has fallen. Developing countries framework for reducing carbon emissions So far, so good. Looking back today, it did not take on reduction targets. has proved elusive to date. is not inconceivable to imagine that the Discussions on a successor framework to UNFCCC might have developed, over two Kyoto began in 2005, seven years before its Global action begins… decades, into something like a global carbon expiry. The UN and civil society hoped for In 1992 there was no straightforward budget, with allocated targets. But instead a new agreement that would see developed carbon equivalent of the ozone ‘hole’. progress stalled. states take on deeper cuts, and developing

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countries agree to reductions. By this time, limiting global temperature rise to 2ºC, What is adopted in Paris is unlikely to some assessments put developing states’ recognition that emissions need to reduce stand up to the ‘universal Kyoto yardstick’. contribution to cumulative emissions at to near zero by 2100, $100 billion a year in But no text, however good, will be effective nearly 50 per cent, with rapid growth in climate finance by 2020, and commitment if it isn’t adopted and subsequently ratified emerging economies making up the lion’s to monitoring the agreement. by states. A successful treaty, therefore, is share. Shortly thereafter, China became the Above all, there has been a sea change in one that is politically saleable. In practice, world’s largest emitter. approach. The 2011 Durban conference this means that treaties often reflect existing However, many developing states saw states replace Kyoto’s two-track process political trends. continued to insist they be exempted with a universal one, removing the ‘firewall’ So what would success in Paris look like? from binding targets. There were notable between developed and developing states. UNA-UK believes that a positive outcome exceptions – some small island states, already All countries will take on reduction targets would be a treaty that binds all countries suffering land loss and displacement due to under the new agreement. to emissions reductions, with effective rising sea levels, announced their intention to This is a huge step forward, resulting in monitoring and implementation mechanisms become carbon neutral. South Africa offered part from significant efforts to agree steps and with scope to develop over time. stronger cuts than the EU as part of a global outside the UNFCCC process – in groups While there are many differences between deal, albeit predicated on financial support. such as the G20 but also in individual the Montreal and UNFCCC frameworks, countries. The last few years have seen the world’s most successful environmental The Copenhagen fallout a marked increase in domestic action. In instrument offers some lessons for how But the fault lines remained. Japan, New 2012, Globe International, an organisation this might be achieved. The Protocol was Zealand and Russia announced they would of parliamentarians from more than 70 supported by developing countries because not join in a second round of Kyoto and countries, found that 32 of the 33 economies they were given time and assistance, the US remained unwilling to commit it surveyed, representing over 80 per cent including financial, to comply with it. It in the absence of developing-country of global emissions, have introduced or are has also developed in terms of targets and commitments. The extension eventually moving towards significant climate-related scope, through provisions that enable parties agreed in 2012 covers countries (including regulation and legislation. to make adjustments in response to new the EU) that represent just 15 per cent of Crucially, this includes China and the scientific information without the need to global emissions. US. In a game-changing move in 2014, they renegotiate. And it has nurtured compliance, As a result, the 2009 UNFCCC conference in Copenhagen – billed as a ‘make or break’ moment – ended It is time for all of us to move beyond a narrative with a whimper. The vague last-minute compromise left millions around the world of ‘heroes’ and ‘villains’ at UNFCCC meetings disappointed, more so because of the huge groundswell of support in the lead-up to the meeting. UNA-UK was part of this push, jointly announced their INDCs: the US through annual, peer-reviewed assessments calling for a robust, global treaty, with legally intends to reduce emissions by 26-28 per and a process that supports non-compliant binding targets for all states. Since then, cent below its 2005 level in 2025, and China states in getting back on track. progress has largely been measured against to peak emissions in 2030. Meanwhile India this yardstick, with inevitable disappointment has proposed a review process for verifying Winners, not villains as prospects for a ‘universal Kyoto’ retreated. developing countries’ emissions, which Such an agreement is a long way off the The move towards Intended Nationally China appears to have accepted. robust treaty that UNA-UK had envisaged. Determined Contributions (INDCs) But if agreed, it would be a pragmatic has attracted particular concern from Defining success milestone that could, if states persevere, campaigners, who rightly question whether Much remains to be done ahead of Paris. develop into an ambitious, coherent such targets will come close to achieving the States still need to agree what form the and transparent framework for effective reductions needed. treaty will take – the Lima draft includes global action. options such as protocol, legal instrument It is time for all of us – states, civil A sea change and “agreed outcome with legal force”. society, business and the media – to move Though understandable, this focus has INDCs submitted to date fall far short beyond a narrative of ‘heroes’ and ‘villains’ played down the progress that has been of what is needed to meet the 2ºC goal, at UNFCCC meetings. Instead, we must achieved at successive UNFCCC meetings. and there is a long way to travel to reach recognise that agreement at Paris, even if it The draft agreement produced in Lima in consensus on how commitments will doesn’t deliver everything immediately, will 2014 reflects these changes: agreement on be monitored. make us all winners.

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Stars aligning for a successful new climate agreement in Paris

The December conference will not solve climate change overnight, but it will put all nations on track towards a sustainable future

By Christiana Figueres, business and citizens increasingly agree to raise action to cut emissions, mobilise Executive Secretary, UN Framework on the transformational notion that the money and markets, price carbon and Convention on Climate Change solutions to climate change are at the strengthen resilience to climate impacts. same time the very ones that will take us One of the most important insights was overnments will reach a new climate towards a safer, healthier, cleaner and more that climate action by city leaders, investors change agreement in Paris in prosperous future for all. and companies, when seen as a whole, is GDecember that puts all nations on The idea that renewable and efficient beginning to approach the kind of scale track towards a sustainable future by keeping power networks and adapting societies and required to begin dealing effectively with the average global temperature rise below economies to climate change also enhance climate change. 2ºC: the internationally agreed defence line development progress, business profits and For example, 40 countries, 30 cities and against the worst future climate impacts. public well-being is becoming mainstream. dozens of corporations launched a large- Paris will not solve climate change This is no longer merely a feel-good scale commitment to double the rate of overnight – combating climate change and position. The International Energy Agency global energy efficiency by 2030. transforming the high-carbon model of has reported that in 2014, global carbon A new coalition of governments, business, development requires society to be in this dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels finance, multilateral development banks endeavour for the long haul. stayed flat, yet the world economy grew 3.3 and civil society leaders announced they Indeed climate science shows that the would mobilise over $200 billion for world needs to achieve a three-part goal financing low-carbon and climate-resilient to successfully address climate change: Governments in Paris development. peaking global emissions in the next decade, A coalition of institutional investors driving them down rapidly thereafter and will be working against a committed to decarbonise $100 billion of establishing a balance between emissions background of the most their portfolios by December this year and and natural absorption by the second half of to measure and disclose the carbon footprint the century. climate-friendly conditions of at least $500 billion in investments. It is our responsibility to act harder and the world has seen Seventy-three national Governments, faster now to set the necessary trajectory but, 11 regional governments and more than because this successful response to climate 1,000 businesses and investors signalled change will cross multiple generations, it per cent. One year does not guarantee a their support for pricing carbon, together is also our historic task in Paris to reach a trend, but it does show that growth can be representing 54 per cent of global emissions. credible, measurable and actionable plan that decoupled from emissions. has an impact now and over time. The scale of effort is not yet enough but A realistic, effective set of goals I am confident the UN Climate Change the trend is set. Governments in Paris will for Paris 2015 Conference in Paris will deliver for two be working against a background of the International agreements succeed best when reasons. most climate-friendly conditions the world the political, economic and social trends of has seen, a position highlighted by UN the time align with each other, as they are Transformation across levels – policy, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s Climate now, towards a new vision of the future. business, civil society Summit in September last year. That is why my first reason for optimism First, for some years now, the stars have Political, business and civil society leaders connects directly with the second: this been aligning for success as policymakers, came to New York with commitments groundswell of action raises governments’

The Earth seen from space. European Space Agency There is no question that the world This means remaining differences can be astronaut Alexander Gerst’s incredible views from 400 km above us, on the International Space Station already has the capital and the technology cleared up and cleaned up and higher-level to achieve the above goal but investors political decisions addressed in capitals. The and corporations need more explicit policy formal negotiation session in Bonn, in June, signals and a road map to give everyone will be an important point for governments confidence to take stronger climate action clarity on the common global destination. to take next steps. and points the way to a realistic and effective That clarity will unleash the necessary Second, Paris must provide a clear set of goals for Paris. entrepreneurship, ingenuity and innovation. picture of current ambition and countries When governments sign in Paris, they Paris can therefore be seen to have four have already started submitting to the will also identify the pathways, policies and main objectives and progress is being made UN Framework Convention on Climate support to ensure that all countries can towards each of these. Change (UNFCCC) what efforts they will contribute now and in the future, based First, Paris must conclude the new contribute in the shape of national climate on national circumstances, to keep global agreement. Governments have already plans. These will be no less ambitious than average temperature rise below 2ºC while agreed their official negotiating text, anything previously announced, ensuring no assisting societies to adapt to the negative covering substantive content and including weakening in the response. climate change impacts that are already mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology The UNFCCC secretariat will prepare underway. and capacity building. a synthesis report on the aggregate effect

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of these Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) by 1 November. The first wave of INDCs already covers almost 80 per cent of energy production emissions from industrialised countries and Mexico and Gabon were the first developing nations to submit their plans. Third, the new agreement will come into force only in 2020 and there remains a large gap in global ambition to cut emissions fast enough to keep below the 2ºC rise and to meet adaptation needs. Therefore, as part of their core objective, governments have addressed immediate ways to reduce emissions and to adapt. This has focused on concrete case studies of effective policy and technology creation and implementation, highlighting an existing and rich palette of real-world solutions to climate change. Last and very important, Paris can define a solid financial package to support developing countries to fulfil their own plans for sustainable, clean energy futures. © Carlo Allegri/Reuters Governments agreed that at least $100 billion a year in climate finance for Institutional investors are taking on board French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, former US Vice President Al Gore, UN Secretary General Ban Ki- developing countries should be flowing the serious risks they face from holding moon and French Environment Minister Ségolène Royal from various sources by 2020. assets in fossil fuel reserves which can never take part in the People’s Climate March, New York, 21 The Green Climate Fund, established see the light of day, if we are to remain September 2014. An estimated 400,000 participated as a central channel for climate finance to below 2ºC. developing nations, has achieved its initial The UNFCCC process is viewed no capitalisation goal of over $10 billion in longer as a UN negotiation silo divorced pledged contributions from governments. from the interests of other parts of solutions to climate change. The Kyoto Meanwhile, the UNFCCC Standing government but an essential foundation Protocol, now ten years old, established Committee on Finance delivered its first of a global response to the multiple threats the world’s first greenhouse gas reduction report on global climate finance, which generated by an unsustainable way of treaty with binding commitments for showed an encouraging picture but a long governing, doing business and consuming. industrialised countries. Countries under way to go, especially in finance for the Governments under the UN this year the Protocol have collectively exceeded their poorest and most vulnerable. will not only deliver the Paris agreement original ambition by a large margin. but also redefine a post-2015 development The Clean Development Mechanism Paris 2015, not Copenhagen 2009 agenda with a set of new Sustainable established a whole new set of international ‘Once bitten, twice shy’ is a natural response Development Goals. Meanwhile, they institutions that are unlocking access in the school of political hard knocks but for already agreed a new global response by developing countries to the finance, all these reasons Paris 2015 is a world away to natural disaster at the Third World technology and capacity building they need from Copenhagen 2009, when governments Conference on Disaster Reduction in Japan to respond to climate change. did not reach a formal agreement. earlier this year. While the international negotiation The breadth and depth of the response to process is far from simple or swift, without climate change at all levels has blossomed. Last word – climate agreements work action under the UNFCCC, we would Advances in renewable energy and power It is particularly important to note at this not be as far forward as we are today and I grid technology have continued to surprise juncture that climate agreements do work could not say what I believe with increasing and excite. Renewables are close to or and have served us well. conviction: now is the time and Paris is the already surpass price parity with traditional In the past 20 years, the UNFCCC has place for a successful climate agreement at fossil fuels. galvanised the world to seek multilateral the scale of ambition required.

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Editor Natalie Samarasinghe, UNA-UK About us Editorial assistant Isabelle Younane Sub-editor Howard Gossington The United Nations Association – UK (UNA-UK) is Design James White the UK’s leading source of independent analysis on the Commercial director Edmund Robinson Sales Maria Cruz, Alex Ford, Cristina UN and a vibrant grassroots movement campaigning Peñalba Vilches, Cecily Robinson for a safer, fairer and more sustainable world Operations Sara Aru, Geraldine Brennan Financial controller Ricky Harwood In 1945, the creation of the UN reflected the hope for a better future. Since Editorial director Claire Manuel then, UNA-UK has enabled ordinary people to engage with that promise, by Publisher Hugh Robinson connecting people from all walks of life to the UN and influencing decision- makers to support its goals. Chairman Anthony Hilton Today, the need for the UN has never been greater. Thanks to the organisation, millions of people now live longer, safer and healthier lives. Published by Witan Media Ltd But many have been left behind. Far too many people still die each year The Leathermarket, from violence, disasters and deprivation. Human rights violations persist in 11-13 Weston St, all corners of the globe, and humanitarian emergencies are set to increase. London SE1 3QB Ongoing crises in Syria, Ukraine, South Sudan and elsewhere have led to Tel: +44 (0)20 3327 3730 tragic losses of life, as well as instability on their borders and the wider world. www.witanmedia.com These problems are not confined to one country. Nor can they be tackled On behalf of United Nations in isolation. The UN is the only organisation with the reach, remit and Association – UK legitimacy to forge solutions. 3 Whitehall Court, Climate change demonstrates the need for international cooperation like no London SW1A 2EL other issue. Its global impacts require global action. To date, a robust treaty on Tel: +44 (0)20 7766 3454 climate change has eluded us. But if states act in the interests of their people www.una.org.uk this December, the 2015 UN climate conference in Paris could deliver an agreement that develops into a coherent, transparent and effective framework. Images: Getty Images, UNA-UK serves as a bridge between governments, the UN and the Reuters, Corbis, UNICEF, USAID, UNDP, UN Cover: Woman at well, Rajasthan, India public. We lobby for joined-up thinking on peace, development and human (Bartosz Hadyniak/Getty Images) rights, and for strong action on climate change. We work with experts and Printed by: D2 Printing practitioners to find new ways to tackle the challenges we face. Through ISBN: 978-0-9929223-5-1 education and training, we equip young people to play a role in international affairs. And by demonstrating why the UN matters, we encourage people to © 2015. The entire contents of this publication are protected by copyright. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be act on their responsibilities as global citizens. reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means: electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or Our members and supporters multiply these efforts at the local level, and otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. The views our sister UNAs around the world do so internationally. Together, we form a and opinions expressed by independent authors and contributors in this publication are provided in the writers’ personal capacities critical mass of support for a strong, credible and effective United Nations. and are their sole responsibility. Their publication does not imply that they represent the views or opinions of United Nations Association – UK or Witan Media Ltd and must neither be regarded as constituting advice on any matter whatsoever, nor be interpreted as such. The reproduction of advertisements in this publication does To find out more and to join our growing not in any way imply endorsement by United Nations Association – UK or Witan Media Ltd of products or services referred to therein. movement, visit www.una.org.uk If you are interested in working with us, please contact us on:+44 20 7766 3454 or [email protected]

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