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Cast 29Th April 2015 a De Facto Standard in the Making Technology Fair Value EUR4.9 (Price EUR3.40) BUY Coverage Initiated

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Cast 29Th April 2015 a De Facto Standard in the Making Technology Fair Value EUR4.9 (Price EUR3.40) BUY Coverage Initiated INDEPENDENT RESEARCH Cast 29th April 2015 A de facto standard in the making Technology Fair Value EUR4.9 (price EUR3.40) BUY Coverage initiated Bloomberg CAS.PA We are initiating coverage of Cast with a DCF-derived Fair Value of Reuters CAS FP EUR4.9, pointing to upside of 44%. Our report aims to show that Cast 12-month High / Low (EUR) 3.5 / 2.5 looks well positioned to benefit from advantageous market conditions Market capitalisation (EURm) 47 Enterprise Value (BG estimates EURm) 30 as standards emerge and its solutions are adopted by major IT Avg. 6m daily volume ('000 shares) 18.10 services companies. If the five-year plan succeeds, the current Free Float 41.3% valuation looks modest. BUY. 3y EPS CAGR 26.0% Gearing (12/14) -97% Dividend yields (12/15e) NM Market forces are converging. Cast is the leader in quality measurement and analysis software for IT applications, a market driven by the convergence of four YE December 12/14 12/15e 12/16e 12/17e forces: 1) the challenge of managing quality with increasingly complex Revenue (EURm) 33.17 39.63 44.47 50.25 EBITA EURm) 2.1 1.6 3.0 5.1 applications outsourcing contracts implying more offshore, 2) the adoption of Op.Margin (%) 6.4 4.0 6.7 10.1 this software by major IT services companies, 3) the rising interest of Diluted EPS (EUR) 0.12 0.09 0.14 0.24 EV/Sales 1.12x 0.76x 0.62x 0.47x management consulting companies, 4) the emergence of quality standards under EV/EBITDA 7.4x 6.9x 4.9x 3.1x the impetus of Cast in particular. EV/EBITA 17.7x 18.9x 9.3x 4.6x P/E 28.8x 39.6x 23.7x 14.4x ROCE 673.6 -69.3 -105.4 -132.8 Invest to make the most of the growth opportunity. In view of its size, Cast remains sensitive to the macro-economy. However, on the back of tailwinds, the company posted double-digit growth over 2013-14 and restored its profitability. 3.3 With attractive market prospects and net cash of EUR9.5m, Cast has embarked 2.8 on a plan to double sales over five years and step up investment spending in 2015. 2.3 1.8 Change in shareholding structure in focus. With the exit of its historical shareholders and the entry of new ones (DevFactory and CM-CIC), Cast's stock 1.3 25/10/13 25/01/14 25/04/14 25/07/14 25/10/14 25/01/15 25/04/15 CAST SXX EUROPE 600 TECHNOLOGY market future has gained a more speculative aspect: 1) if the five-year project succeeds, in our view, Cast could be worth far more than its current multiples suggest and become a choice target for a major software publisher, 2) if it fails, we estimate that a "take-private" deal would make sense. Still attractively valued. Our DCF valuation is based on the group delivering its five-year plan. Est. 2016 EV/EBIT of 9.3x includes a discount of around 40% relative to the average of software publishers. Analyst: Sector Analyst Team: Gregory Ramirez Richard-Maxime Beaudoux 33(0) 1 56 68 75 91 Dorian Terral [email protected] r r Cast Simplified Profit & Loss Account (EURm) 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e Revenues 26.2 29.6 33.2 39.6 44.5 50.3 Change (%) -22.4% 12.9% 12.2% 19.5% 12.2% 13.0% lfl change (%) -22.4% 12.9% 12.2% 19.5% 12.2% 13.0% Adjusted EBITDA (1.7) 3.3 5.0 4.4 5.7 7.7 Depreciation & amortisation (2.2) (3.3) (2.9) (2.8) (2.7) (2.6) Adjusted EBIT (3.9) 0.05 2.1 1.6 3.0 5.1 EBIT (3.7) 0.02 2.0 1.5 2.9 5.0 Change (%) -212% -% 9,030% -22.9% 90.0% 71.2% Financial results (0.04) 0.01 0.0 0.15 0.20 0.25 Pre-Tax profits (3.7) 0.03 2.0 1.7 3.1 5.3 Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tax (0.17) 0.08 (0.30) (0.44) (1.0) (1.7) Profits from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net profit (3.9) 0.11 1.7 1.3 2.1 3.5 Restated net profit (3.8) 0.21 1.8 1.3 2.2 3.6 Change (%) -217% -105% 776% -27.4% 67.4% 64.4% Cash Flow Statement (EURm) Operating cash flows (2.0) 2.4 4.6 4.1 4.8 6.1 Change in working capital 6.0 (2.0) 2.7 1.4 (0.18) 0.43 Capex, net (1.8) (2.1) (2.1) (2.2) (2.3) (2.4) Financial investments, net 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Acquisitions, net 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 0.07 (0.41) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net debt (5.9) (4.2) (9.5) (16.6) (18.9) (23.1) Free Cash flow 2.1 (1.6) 5.2 3.2 2.4 4.2 Balance Sheet (EURm) Tangible fixed assets 0.41 0.27 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.23 Company description Intangibles assets & goodwill 3.4 2.2 1.4 0.82 0.41 0.28 Founded in 1990 and listed on Investments 0.17 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 Deferred tax assets 0.74 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Euronext Paris since 1999, Cast is the Current assets 14.2 15.8 15.7 17.7 20.5 23.2 pioneer and global leader in software Cash & equivalents 7.1 5.0 10.8 17.9 20.3 24.5 quality analysis and measurement. Its Total assets 25.9 24.6 29.4 38.0 42.7 49.4 products, which are part of the Shareholders' equity 7.9 7.9 9.7 14.9 17.0 20.5 Provisions 0.62 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 delivery and maintenance processes of Deferred tax liabilities 0.73 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.51 the world's largest IT Services L & ST Debt 1.2 0.83 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 companies, bring objective visibility Current liabilities 15.4 15.3 17.8 21.3 23.9 27.0 for measuring performance and Total Liabilities 25.9 24.6 29.4 38.0 42.7 49.4 Capital employed 2.1 3.7 0.27 (1.7) (1.9) (2.6) managing IT development, maintenance et sourcing activities Ratios Operating margin (14.81) 0.16 6.36 4.03 6.73 10.13 efficiently. More than 250 large Tax rate (4.55) (300) 15.00 26.00 32.00 33.00 companies in Europe, America and Net margin (14.83) 0.38 5.15 3.17 4.81 7.05 India trust Cast for preventing risks ROE (after tax) (49.06) 1.41 17.57 8.46 12.57 17.25 and service outages while reducing IT ROCE (after tax) (196) 3.23 674 (69.34) (105) (133) Gearing (73.96) (53.10) (97.24) (112) (111) (113) development costs. Pay out ratio NM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Number of shares, diluted 15.15 15.18 15.24 15.22 15.22 15.22 Data per Share (EUR) EPS (0.32) 0.01 0.14 0.09 0.16 0.26 Restated EPS (0.25) 0.01 0.12 0.09 0.14 0.24 % change -% -% 772% -27.4% 67.4% 64.4% EPS bef. GDW (0.25) 0.01 0.12 0.09 0.14 0.24 BVPS 0.52 0.52 0.64 0.98 1.12 1.35 Operating cash flows (0.13) 0.16 0.30 0.27 0.32 0.40 FCF 0.14 (0.11) 0.34 0.21 0.15 0.27 Net dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests. 2 Cast Table of contents 1. Investment Case ...........................................................................................................................................4 2. Valuation .......................................................................................................................................................5 2.1. Analysis of the share's performance .......................................................................................... 5 2.2. DCF model: EUR4.9 per share ...................................................................................................6 2.3. Peer comparison ................................................................................................................................. 7 3. Positive factors converging ........................................................................................................................9 3.1. Cast's market in full bloom ...............................................................................................................9 3.1.1. When measuring quality and productivity becomes essential … ................................. 9 3.1.2. A still-fragmented competitive backdrop ...................................................................... 10 3.2. A de-facto standard for IT services companies ......................................................................... 12 3.2.1. Cast adopted by 9 major IT services companies.......................................................... 12 3.2.2. IT services companies: Cast's indirect sales channels ................................................. 13 3.3. Management consulting firms endorse Cast ............................................................................... 13 3.4. Emergence of standards and regulations .................................................................................... 14 3.4.1. Cast's very active role in defining standards ................................................................. 14 3.4.2. Regulatory requirements for application quality .......................................................... 15 4. 2014 results and outlook ......................................................................................................................... 16 4.1. Encouraging 2014 results ........................................................................................................... 16 4.2. What capacity to reach five-year targets? ............................................................................. 17 4.2.1. How to double sales by 2019? ........................................................................................
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