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TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 Jail time Urgent pleas The other Russia a badge of for an end to honor in stalemate in India politics Washington

DALTENGANJ, INDIA WASHINGTON As growing middle class Financial leaders warn opposes tainted leaders, of deep threats to fragile tribal areas defend them global economic revival

BY ELLEN BARRY BY ANNIE LOWREY AND NATHANIEL POPPER When he decided to run for a parliamen- tary seat from this impoverished and Leaders at World Bank and Internation- mainly low-caste constituency in north- al Monetary Fund meetings over the east India, Kameshwar Baitha made no weekend pleaded, warned and cajoled: effort to sugarcoat his criminal record. the United States must raise its debt Obediently, he cataloged the serious ceiling and reopen its government or charges pending against him, all of risk ‘‘massive disruption the world which he says are false. There were 17 over,’’ as Christine Lagarde, the fund’s for murder, 22 for attempted murder, 6 managing director, put it. for assault with a dangerous weapon, 5 The fiscal problems of the United for theft, 2 for extortion, and so on, a leg- States overshadowed the official agen- acy from Mr. Baitha’s previous career das for the meetings, with representa- as a leader of the local Maoist insur- tives from dozens of countries — includ- gency. On top of that was the fact that he ing two of Washington’s most important was in jail. economic partners, Saudi Arabia and But this did not hurt him with voters China — publicly expressing worries here in the state of Jharkhand, noted his about what was happening in Congress son, Babban Kumar, who hopes to fol- and in the White House. low his father into politics. With people The leaders came to Washington to in this area, who look to elected leaders talk about the international recovery, as Robin Hood figures, it may have Ms. Lagarde said during an interview helped. on the NBC News program ‘‘Meet the ‘‘You have to fight against something, Press.’’ ‘‘Then they found out that the how else can you get into politics?’’ Mr. debt ceiling was the issue,’’ she added. Kumar said. ‘‘Without going to jail, you ‘‘They found out that the government cannot be a big politician.’’ had shut down and that there was no New impulses are rippling through remedy in sight.’’ Indian politics this year, as a growing, ‘‘So it really completely transformed urbanized middle class demands that the meeting in the last few days,’’ Ms. hundreds of tainted politicians be driv- Lagarde said. PHOTOGRAPHS BY DMITRY KOSTYUKOV FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES en from the system. With only three days left before a po- A churchgoer at the Iversky Monastery, which has had a lustrous renovation financed by state-connected companies. President Vladimir V. Putin has a vacation home next door. In Delhi, crowds driven by Internet tential default, Senate leaders failed on campaigns have rallied around an anti- Sunday to reach agreement on a plan to corruption platform, holding brooms to reopen the government and raise the symbolize the coming cleansing. The debt limit. Supreme Court, sensing the public Many leaders at the World Bank and Between 2 cities, signs of a world left behind mood, ruled in July that it was illegal for I.M.F. meetings said that they believed politicians who had been convicted of the impasse would be resolved before LYUBAN, RUSSIA stretch of road that is a 12-hour trip by car crimes to continue holding office by Thursday, when the government would — that one sees the great stretches of simply filing an appeal against their be at severe risk of not having enough BY ELLEN BARRY Russia so neglected by the state that they convictions. The ruling would disqualify money to pay all its bills on any given seem drawn backward in time. politicians sentenced to more than two day. A few times every day, the high-speed As the state’s hand recedes from the years in prison by a lower court. This But they pressed Treasury Secretary train between St. Petersburg and Mos- hinterlands, people are struggling with change, which could uproot formidable Jacob J. Lew and the Federal Reserve cow barrels through the threadbare choices that belong to past centuries: to political forces, was endorsed this chairman, Ben S. Bernanke — who were town of Lyuban. When word gets out heat their homes with a wood stove, month by the governing coalition’s both at the I.M.F. meeting — on the issue, that the head of Russia’s state railway which must be fed by hand every three crown prince, Rahul Gandhi. predicting that even a near-default company — a close friend of President hours, or burn diesel fuel, which costs The effort will meet its greatest chal- would lead to higher borrowing costs and Vladimir V. Putin — is aboard, the sta- half a month’s salary? When the road has lenge in another India — the old one, a slowing down of the global economy. tion’s employees line up on the platform so deteriorated that ambulances cannot where voting is still largely driven by ‘‘This cannot happen, and this shall standing at attention, saluting Russia’s reach their home, is it safe to stay? When caste. In the tribal region that Mr. not happen,’’ Baudouin Prot, chairman modernization for the seconds it takes their home can’t be sold, can they leave? Baitha represents, the vast majority of of the French bank BNP Paribas, said at the train to fly through. Whoosh. Clad in rubber slippers, his forearms elected officials face criminal charges, FUND, PAGE 19 But Vladimir G. Naperkovsky is not sprinkled with tattoos, Mr. most related to corruption, but many for one of them. He watched with a cold, Naperkovsky is the kind of plain-spoken violent crimes. Voters typically dismiss blue-eyed stare as the train passed the man’s man whom Russians would call a such charges as trumped-up, one more town where he was born, with its pitted RUSSIA, PAGE 14 attempt by elites to crush the champi- roads and crumbling buildings. At 52, ons of the poor. having shut down his small computer re- These are some of the things that al- pair business, Mr. Naperkovsky is leav- lowed Mr. Baitha to discuss the subject ing for another region in Russia, hoping comfortably in the red-velvet seating it is not too late to start a new life in a area of a government guesthouse, as a more prosperous place. The reasons are ceiling fan turned slowly overhead. He Ryoma Michai, 13, and Mariuka Rudel, 14, before their wedding ceremony in the village of many, but his view boils down to this: urged his guest to imagine if everyone Chudovo. Many children no longer attend school, as was required in Soviet days. ‘‘Gradually,’’ he said, explaining his convicted of a crime were barred from view of Lyuban, ‘‘everything is rotting.’’ politics. At the edges of Russia’s two great cit- ‘‘The whole Parliament will be ONLINE: THE OTHER RUSSIA ies, another Russia begins. empty,’’ he said. ‘‘It will become a Find an interactive account of Ellen An interactive map showing the day-by- This will not be apparent at next year’s joke.’’ SPECIAL REPORT: TURNING THE PAGE II Barry’s multiday road trip from St. day stages of the trip. Winter Olympics in Sochi, nor is it visible A big test of the new measures’ effect The pace of change in our times can Petersburg to Moscow. Join Aleksandr Chertkov, a truck driver from the German-engineered high-speed will come in the case of Lalu Prasad, the upend ways of life with little warning. A slide show from Dmitry Kostyukov who has spent years on Russia’s highways, train. It is along the highway between Aleksandr Chertkov, a truck driver, craves longtime leader of the neighboring state We peer around the corner at what illustrating the journey. as he travels toward Moscow. inyt.com Moscow and St. Petersburg — a narrow order, which he thinks existed under Stalin. INDIA, PAGE 4 might be coming next. INSIDE

LETTER TO OUR READERS ONLINE AT INYT.COM Introducing Sinosphere Today we celebrate the debut of The In- around the world has never been great- from around the globe. Our new China-focused blog delivers ternational New York Times, a news re- er. To celebrate the launch of The Inter- timely and authoritative dispatches port tailored specifically for the valued Over the past year, we have built one national New York Times, we are offer- members of our global audience. news-gathering operation by combin- ing complimentary access this week to from this fast-changing country. Edited from Paris, London, Hong ing the journalistic strengths and the our digital readers on inyt.com, iOS mo- sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com Kong and New York, The International newsrooms of The New York Times bile apps and all mobile devices via a New York Times will continue to serve and The International Herald Tribune, Web browser. Inflation hits India businesses the many loyal readers of The Interna- with continuous news desks and a 24/7 Additional details on how to access As India battles with slowing growth tional Herald Tribune by maintaining global news flow from Hong Kong, Par- The International New York Times can and a weakened rupee, small its tradition of journalistic excellence is, London and New York. Our commit- be found on Page 2. businesses across the country are and innovation. ment to providing quality global journa- It is our belief that The International among the worst affected. Only a few decades ago, The New lism is steadfast. We have more New York Times will help you experi- india.blogs.nytimes.com York Times was a well respected but international correspondents reporting ence the world, while connecting and en- metropolitan newspaper. My father, Ar- from more locations than ever before. gaging with a global community of polit- Europe weighs U.S. debt crisis thur Ochs Sulzberger, had the vision to With today’s action, we are creating a ically and culturally passionate people. European finance ministers were to make The Times a national newspaper single, unified global media brand, Thank you for reading The Interna- in 1980. Though seen as a gamble at the which will allow us to expand our digit- tional New York Times. meet Monday and Tuesday. They are time, it was clearly the right decision. al hubs, grow our editorial team, add concerned about whether the United Today, our future is global. The need more international voices in news and Sincerely, States can avoid a credit default. for high-quality, authoritative, on-the- opinion, and increase the coverage Arthur Ochs Sulzberger Jr., Publisher inyt.com/business ground reporting and analysis from provided by some of our best writers International New York Times Detroit’s ailing, but not its teams Although Detroit has sought INTRODUCING INYT.COM bankruptcy protection, the city’s Enjoy complimentary digital access to The International New York Times this week. Experience it now. COURTESY OF . professional sports occupy a vastly different economic world. inyt.com

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IN YOUR WORDS A new image A soul-searching look at killing Anything you do repeatedly becomes habit. Riding with the road wallahs I’m paraphrasing Oscar Wilde. The repeti- of female tion is what makes people capable of be- coming terrorists. So there are two issues — one is the dehumanization discussed in authenticity this article: a terrorist is trained not to see similarities between him or herself and the object of their hatred. But it is the repeti- tion that makes habit, and habit becomes addiction. Melpub, New York and Germany

In this day and age, when Westerners are so apt to describe much of the violence and Anand anger coming out of the Islamic world, in Giridharadas particular, as a symptom of the conduct of ‘‘uncivilized people,’’ it is good to remem- ber that Westerners have conducted them- CURRENTS selves in this same way in the recent past. The fact that there is not more of this kind of grievance-based violence may be re- NEW YORK When Kate Middleton was lated to the fact that the West has, gener- married but as yet unproductively un- pregnant, all they wanted was for her ally, been wealthy enough to buy off and to inflate with child. When she obliged avert a lot of the most savage kinds of con- with an heir, all they wanted was for flict. Shaun Narine, Fredericton, New Brunswick her inconvenient ‘‘mommy body’’ to scram. Tabloids gushed when seem- Turning the page on the IHT ingly it did. I have been reading the IHT on or off for The elusive standards of female per- over 50 years, sometimes even buying it in fection never draw closer. It’s not just New York City itself just because I could. the cult of ‘‘mommy makeovers’’ or the relentless Photoshopping. To the old Now that I live in London I appreciate how problem of image ideals is now added rare and worthwhile quality English-lan- the problem of a world that expects guage journalism is. I'm confident the NYT more of women than beauty — but ex- will continue in the tradition but this occa- pects it with a degree of perfection that sion makes me realize the times when the mimics the older standards for surface IHT was part of my life. Nick Grealy, London achievements. Women are allowed to do big things, but must do them fully leaned-in, hands raised, having it all. I too have a deep nostalgia for the Interna- What remains impregnable to them are tional Herald Tribune. The name alone con- those refuges that shelter so many jures up my youthful peregrinations, men: ordinariness and muddling twenty or more years ago, in Europe and through. Asia. Thorina Rose, San Francisco It’s worth noting, then, when a war of PHOTOGRAPHS BY DOUGIE WALLACE resistance breaks out and even gains This is a terrible error on the part of the NY ground. In certain Times. The International Herald Tribune is BEHIND THE One detects corners of the Ameri- WHEELMAN can cultural ferment a unique and compelling brand for expats a new icono- Dougie Wallace, a today, one detects a and other readers in Europe and elsewhere photographer from graphy of fe- new iconography of around the world. Valhalla, Montreal Scotland, spent male realness, female realness, parts of two months grossness, grossness, flawed- See what readers are talking about and last year taking can- flawedness. ness — of copious leave your comments. inyt.com did shots of the in- thighs and unsexy teriors of the boxy sexuality. In a hun- taxis known as dred ways, women are clamoring for a IN OUR PAGES Premier Padminis freedom long cherished by men: the that zoom — or right to be ugly, too. crawl — along the As Tracy Moore wrote last week on 1913 U.S. Balloon Victory at Hand streets of Mumbai. Jezebel, ‘‘Lost in the debate about hav- PARIS Unless a surprise is sprung at the ing it all, wanting it real bad, reaching last moment by the Austrian balloon for the brass ring and living a life mired Frankfurt (the only one of the eighteen in the anxiety of striver-driven perfec- starters still unaccounted for), the tion that comes with it are all the wom- Coupe Internationale des Aéronautes en who just don’t give a’’ — let’s just say, aren’t fussed. ‘‘Sure, we care about has been won by an American, Mr. stuff,’’ Ms. Moore added, ‘‘but only up Ralph Upson, pilot of the Goodyear. It to a point one might describe as a low was nearly one o’clock this morning simmer of concern that never quite [Oct. 15] when Mr. Cortlandt F. Bishop, bubbles over.’’ delegate of the Aero Club of America, re- That attitude perfectly describes ceived a telegram from Mr. Upson an- Lena Dunham, the writer-director-star nouncing the latter’s landing four miles of the HBO comedy ‘‘Girls.’’ Her char- north of Bridlington, Yorkshire, on the acter subverts our ideas of young wo- manhood because she doesn’t care: North Sea. The distance from Paris to about her weight, her sartorial stan- Bridlington, as the crow flies, is over 850 dards, her cooking. When she neglects kilomètres, while only 470 kilomètres to wear underwear, it’s not presented separate Paris from Pont-de-Buis. as sexy, as we’re used to on television; SERENITY AND gers. The images loaded with metal it’s gross and neglectful. When she 1963 Algerians Battling ‘Invaders’ CHAOS Aiming capture a moment pipes and some plays table tennis topless, it’s clearly ALGIERS Algeria accused Morocco three flashes into in time as the cabs cows, too,’’ Mr. Wal- not because of targeting male viewer- the cramped, ornate snake through lace said. ‘‘It’s kind ship but in spite of it. today [Oct. 14] of launching a massive taxis, Mr. Wallace streets often of biblical.’’ For a Many people can’t bear it. The critics ground and air invasion of the Algerian sought to convey clogged with traffic slide show of the can’t believe that anyone would let a Sahara and advancing up to 60 miles into the ‘‘emotions and of all kinds. ‘‘There photographs, go to woman like that on television. A New Algerian territory. Foreign Minister Ab- expressions’’ of are horses pulling the Lens blog at York Post columnist called the show delaziz Bouteflika told a news confer- drivers and passen- wooden carts inyt.com. ‘‘‘Sex and the City’ — for ugly people.’’ ence that several thousand Moroccan The radio host Howard Stern labeled troops supported by fighter planes and Ms. Dunham ‘‘a little fat girl who kind of looks like Jonah Hill, and she keeps tanks were fighting a pitched battle with taking her clothes off, and it kind of Algerian forces. ‘‘Fighting is going on at feels like a rape.’’ the very moment I am talking to you,’’ These critics should avoid the Netflix Mr. Bouteflika told the newsmen. ‘‘The show ‘‘Orange Is the New Black’’ as fighting is extremely violent.’’ well. Set in a women’s prison, it depicts that rarity, a nearly all-female world, Find a retrospective of news from 1887 to mostly free of the male gaze. The open- 2013 in the International Herald Tribune at ing sequence shows some of the hard- iht-retrospective.blogs.nytimes.com est-bitten women you’ll see on televi- sion — with actual pores! When the prisoners dance, it’s seldom meant to TO SUBSCRIBE allure. The characters who are put in sexual situations are often the ones a fo- cus group might have voted not to see. To celebrate the introduction of The In- Oscar Hijuelos, 62, Cuban-American novelist Even Miley Cyrus’s infamous ternational New York Times, we are of- ‘‘twerking’’ was interesting for its al- fering free access this week to our digit- BY BRUCE WEBER wrote about the non-native experience figured in his books. His parents, Pas- sounding board for him, listening as he most ugly sexuality. It angered and im- al readers on inyt.com, iOS mobile apps in the United States from a sympathetic, cual, a cook at the Biltmore Hotel, and read aloud the manuscript that became pressed many, but it didn’t appear to and all mobile devices via a Web Oscar Hijuelos, a Cuban-American nov- occasionally amused perspective and Magdalena Torrens Hijuelos, emigrated ‘‘Mambo Kings.’’ turn on a lot of people. With her tongue browser. Here are additional details on elist who wrote about the lives of immi- with a keen eye for detail in his period from Cuba in the 1940s. ‘‘In 1989, he called one night and said hanging out golden retriever-like, Ms. how to gain access to The International grants adapting to a new culture and be- settings. The family spoke Spanish at home, and he’d like to take me to dinner,’’ she re- Cyrus was performing an un-pretty New York Times: came the first Latino to win the Pulitzer Unlike that of many well-known Latin young Oscar became fluent in English called in a telephone interview Sunday. sexuality that was from herself more • Home delivery details are available at Prize for fiction for his 1989 book, ‘‘The writers, his work was rarely outwardly only after a 1955 visit to Cuba, where he ‘‘He said, ‘Because my second novel is than for someone else. subscribe.inyt.com. If you were an IHT Mambo Kings Play Songs of Love,’’ has political, focusing instead on the conun- contracted a severe kidney infection that being published and I want to thank Few have played with un-pretty more home delivery subscriber, your digital drums of assimilation. And rather than required him to spend a year away from you.’’’ That was the beginning of a ro- than Tina Fey, who often contorts her- access now includes full access to The OBITUARY employing a syncopated musicality or his family in a Connecticut hospital. mance. They married in 1998. She self to be less attractive than she is. The New York Times and news apps, in ad- magic realism, Mr. Hijuelos wrote fluid ‘‘It was during that long separation teaches at Duke University, as did her cover of her memoir, ‘‘Bossypants,’’ dition to inyt.com and NYTimes.com. died in Manhattan. He was 62. prose, sonorous but more earthy than po- from my family that I became estranged husband. shows her own hands replaced with • After this week’s free access expires, Mr. Hijuelos collapsed Saturday on a etic, with a forthright American cadence. from the Spanish language and, there- In his later years, Mr. Hijuelos wrote a those of a fat, hairy man. Her character limits for nonsubscribers will apply. If tennis court and never regained con- ‘‘Everything was different back when; fore, my roots,’’ he wrote in a 2011 essay young adult novel, ‘‘Dark Dude’’ (2008), on ‘‘30 Rock’’ finds liberation in gross- you are not an International New York sciousness, his wife, Lori Marie Carlson, 125th Street was jumping with clubs, in The New York Times. about a Cuban boy living in a tough Har- ness and frat-boy self-negligence. ‘‘Al- Times home delivery or digital sub- said. there was less violence, there were fewer Mr. Hijuelos graduated from Louis D. lem neighborhood, and a memoir, ways remember the most important scriber, you have access to a combined A New Yorker by birth, education and beggars; more mutual respect between Brandeis High School in Manhattan and ‘‘Thoughts Without Cigarettes’’ (2011). rule of beauty, which is: who cares?’’ total of 10 articles each month on residence, Mr. Hijuelos was said to have people,’’ he wrote, as Cesar Castillo re- attended several colleges in New York ‘‘Despite the strange baggage that I she wrote in her book. inyt.com and NYTimes.com, as well as been more American-Cuban than Cu- flected on his halcyon days. City, eventually earning a bachelor’s de- carried about my upbringing,’’ Mr. Will the insurgency of imperfection limited access to content in the mobile ban-American. His characters were not necessarily gree and a Master of Fine Arts from City Hijuelos wrote in The Times in 2011 spread or fade away? The comedian apps. Beyond 10 articles a month, you In novels like ‘‘Our House in the Last new arrivals — in Mr. Hijuelos’s books, College. ‘‘Our House in the Last World,’’ about the evolution of his view of his cul- Mindy Kaling isn’t taking any chances. will be asked to subscribe. For more in- World’’ (1983), which traces a family’s which sometimes ranged over decades, his first novel, was published in 1983. tural background, ‘‘and despite the rela- She was asked recently about her re- formation on INYT digital subscrip- travails from Havana in 1939 to Spanish they certainly didn’t remain so — but in Mr. Hijuelos’s first marriage ended in tive loss of my first language, I eventu- lentless busyness. ‘‘I’m a minority, tions or to subscribe, go to inyt.com/ Harlem; ‘‘Mambo Kings,’’ about the various stages of absorbing the some- divorce. He met Ms. Carlson, a writer ally came to the point that, when I heard chubby woman who has my own televi- access. rise and fall of the Castillo brothers, times assaultive American culture and editor, in 1983 at the Center for Spanish, I found my heart warming. sion show on a network,’’ she said. ‘‘I • As of today, The New York Times and Cesar, a flamboyant and profligate while holding on to an ethnic and nation- Inter-American Relations, where she ‘‘And that was the moment when I don’t know how long this is going to news apps allow you to choose between bandleader, and his ruminative trum- al identity. was an executive. The organization, began to look through another window, last.’’ a U.S. or an International Edition. The peter brother, Nestor; and ‘‘The Four- Oscar Jerome Hijuelos was born in now known as the Americas Center, pro- not out onto 118th Street, but into myself International Edition replaces the IHT teen Sisters of Emilio Montez O’Brien’’ Manhattan on Aug. 24, 1951, and grew up motes diplomacy between the United — through my writing, the process by Join an online conversation at app. Inyt.com is available on all devices (1993), about several generations of a in the borough’s northern Morningside States and Latin America. They struck which, for all my earlier alienation, I had http://anand.ly and follow on via a Web browser. Cuban-Irish family in Pennsylvania, he Heights neighborhood that later often up a friendship, and she became a finally returned home.’’ Twitter.com/anandwrites .. INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | 3 ... 4 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES World News asia

BRIEFLY Asia The Times’s eye on China, then and now

BY AUSTIN RAMZY AND PHILIP P. PAN When The New-York Daily Times began BEHRAMPUR, INDIA publication in 1851, China was ruled by a Cyclone death toll rises to 23, weak and stagnating Qing dynasty. Hong Kong was a young British colony, but 17 sailors rescued ceded to Queen Victoria at the end of the As the death toll from Cyclone Phailin first Opium War only nine years earlier. rose to 23 people in eastern India on And the devastating Taiping Rebellion, Monday, the coast guard rescued 17 which would leave at least 20 million sailors whose cargo ship sank during dead, more than almost any other mili- the storm, officials said. The govern- tary conflict in history, had just begun in ment’s evacuation of nearly a million a corner of what is now the southern re- people apparently spared India the gion of Guangxi. widespread deaths many had feared Despite such momentous events, from the cyclone. American readers’ interest in China was A lifeboat carrying the crew of the spotty, and so was the news coverage. MV Bingo was spotted by a coast guard Reports took months to reach the United aircraft on Sunday off Orissa State, States by ship across the Pacific Ocean, which took the brunt of the storm. The or via the Atlantic after crossing over- sailors were brought to Kolkata on land through India. The Times, which Monday. sold for a penny per issue and dropped Officials in Orissa and neighboring the ‘‘Daily’’ from its name in 1857, relied Andhra Pradesh, meanwhile, said the largely on dispatches from traders, mis- death toll had increased to 23, the sionaries, sailors and soldiers. Press Trust of India news agency The coverage was unreliable, to put it reported. (AP) mildly. In July 1900, a headline over a story about the Boxer Uprising fam- NEW DELHI ously — and wrongly — declared, ‘‘ALL Government says 109 died FOREIGNERS IN PEKING DEAD,’’ and was followed by subheads that in stampede at bridge added, ‘‘Chinese Servants Who Es- The death toll from a stampede near a caped From City Say So,’’ and ‘‘Those temple in central India rose to 109 Slain Said to Have Numbered a Thou- after many of the injured died, an offi- sand.’’ (The actual death toll was closer cial said Monday. Thousands of Hindu to 60, but that did not stop Western pilgrims were crossing a bridge lead- troops from invading and viciously loot- ing to the temple in Madhya Pradesh ing the city.) state on Sunday when they panicked The writing in The Times often at a rumor that the bridge was col- smacked of racism, too, and the prose lapsing. could be purple. ‘‘I, who lately dipped A district medical officer, R.S. Gupta, my steel in sanguinary themes, may said autopsies had been carried out on now immerse it in rose water and 109 bodies by late Sunday. Relatives of musk,’’ wrote one unnamed author in the dead crowded the state-run hospital ‘‘The Chinese Empire,’’ an 1868 piece in the Datia district to take the bodies about an armed uprising and the young after the autopsies. Others searched Tongzhi Emperor’s preparations for his frantically for their relatives among the marriage. (Even then, newspaper edit- MANSELL COLLECTION/TIME & LIFE PICTURES, VIA GETTY IMAGES injured in the hospital. ors swooned at the prospect of a royal An 1855 image of Taiping. A Times dispatch, noting that the Taiping forbade drinking and smoking, noted the ease with which a rebel officer was led into temptation. Hundreds of thousands of devotees wedding.) had thronged the remote Ratangarh And long before The Huffington Post village temple in Datia to honor the gave news aggregation a bad name, The foreign trade. ence with their fanatical leader, Hong count published six years later in ‘‘The Chinese-language Web site and devote Hindu mother goddess Durga on the Times regularly reprinted articles Letters from members of the U.S. ex- Xiuquan, who claimed to be the younger Knickerbocker, or New-York Monthly more correspondents to China than to last day of the popular 10-day Navratri about China from the British news me- pedition were a key source of The brother of Jesus Christ. The only condi- Magazine’’ under the byline ‘‘John K. any other country besides the United Festival. (AP) dia, which employed wide networks of Times’s coverage, and one such letter tion was that he prostrate himself and Duer, United States Navy.’’ States. correspondents to cover Britain’s far- described a side trip by the Susque- offer tribute. In the 159 years since that letter was Months at sea have been replaced by flung empire. hanna, a steam frigate that detached Mr. McLane refused, The Times re- published, coverage of China in The milliseconds over the Internet. At the One development in Asia that cap- from the squadron and sailed past ported, but several members of the ex- Times has changed dramatically. In same time, after decades of chaos, tured the attention of early readers of Shanghai up the Yangtze River in 1854. pedition later barged into the rebel 1925, the paper hired its first staff China China has emerged as a rising super- The Times was Commodore Matthew C. According to the dispatch, published stronghold and visited its famous Por- correspondent, Thomas F. Millard, a power, and readers around the world Perry’s 1852-55 naval expedition, which on the front page of The Times under celain Tower pagoda. Missouri native who co-founded the are more eager than ever to understand forced Japan at gunpoint to open up to the headline ‘‘Interesting From China,’’ Noting that the Taiping forbade drink- first U.S.-owned newspaper in China, it. on board the ship was Robert Milligan ing alcohol or smoking, the writer de- sometimes advised the Nationalist gov- But getting a good handle on what’s ONLINE: INTRODUCING SINOSPHERE McLane, a military officer and future scribed the ease with which a rebel of- ernment and was dubbed ‘‘the dean of happening in China, and what the Sinosphere, where this and other articles Maryland governor who had been ap- ficer visiting the ship was led into American newspapermen in the Ori- Chinese people are thinking and doing can be found, is the new China blog of The pointed the U.S. envoy to China by Pres- temptation. ‘‘We persuaded him, with- ent.’’ Times correspondents stayed on — gaining genuine insight as well as ac- SAJJAD HUSSAIN/AFP New York Times, delivering intimate, ident Franklin Pierce. His mission? To out much difficulty, into violating his re- the China story through the Japanese curate news and information — remains A mother holds the hand of her son, who was authoritative coverage of the world’s most investigate the Taiping Heavenly King- ligious instructions so far as to smoke ci- invasion, World War II and the Chinese a challenge. Language barriers, cultural injured in the stampede at a bridge crossing. populous nation and its relationship with dom, established by peasant insurrec- gars and drink a few glasses of wine,’’ Civil War. After the Communist misconceptions, restrictions on the free the world. Drawing on timely, engaging tionists on the march against the Xian- the author said. ‘‘The consequence was, takeover in 1949, The Times was forced flow of information and the country’s KABUL dispatches from The Times’s distinguished feng Emperor. that the fellow got quite jolly before he to cover the mainland from Hong Kong, vast size continue to pose significant U.S. soldier killed in attack team of China correspondents, it brings The Taiping, who would rule over left the ship.’’ but it re-opened its Beijing bureau in obstacles. Sinosphere, a new blog, rep- readers into the debates and discussions large swaths of China before being The correspondent who described 1979 and has been honored with six resents The Times’s latest attempt to by gunman in Afghan uniform inside a fast-changing country and details crushed by Qing armies, had made these events for readers of The Times Pulitzer Prizes for China-related cover- overcome them — by delivering timely, An American soldier was killed when a the cultural, economic and political Nanjing their capital and, at a camp was not named. But the dispatch men- age. engaging dispatches on everything our man wearing an Afghan security force developments shaping the lives of 1.3 billion near the city, they told the American en- tions an officer, Lt. John K. Duer, and We now maintain bureaus in Beijing, correspondents find ‘‘Interesting From uniform opened fire on a group of for- people. sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com voy that he might be granted an audi- portions of it match a first-person ac- Shanghai and Hong Kong, publish a China.’’ eign trainers in eastern Afghanistan, officials with the international military coalition said. It was the third such at- tack in less than a month. The shooting Sunday in the Sharana district of Paktika Province also most Jail time is a badge of honor to many in India Malaysia court likely wounded at least one other sol- dier, but details about the event were INDIA, FROM PAGE 1 bans ‘Allah’ for not immediately available. A spokes- of Bihar, who was disqualified from man for the provincial governor said holding office and running in coming the assailant had escaped. A Taliban elections this month after being sen- non-Muslims spokesman could not immediately be tenced on corruption charges. The case reached for comment, and the Taliban against him had proceeded at a snail’s BANGKOK did not issue a statement claiming re- pace for 17 years, as Mr. Prasad had sponsibility for the attack. thumbed his nose at prosecutors. BY THOMAS FULLER A master of populist showmanship BEIJING who came from a caste of cow herders, A Malaysian court ruled Monday that Heavy snowfall traps tourists he transformed his court dates into non-Muslims are barred from using the political theater. He arrived for one ses- word ‘‘Allah’’ to refer to God, the latest at Everest base camp in Tibet sion in the back of a bicycle rickshaw, decision in a long-running dispute that At least 86 tourists were trapped Mon- surrounded by throngs of adoring sup- has polarized the multicultural country. day at the north base camp of Mt. porters, and once left jail on the back of a The decision by a panel of three Everest, at an altitude of 5,200 meters, small elephant. judges overturned a previous judgment because of heavy snowfall in central The dance seemed to end with his that had allowed a Catholic newspaper Tibet, the state news agency Xinhua sentencing. But last week, sitting in- to use Allah in its Malay-language reported. side the Birsa Munda Central Jail in newspaper. The Chinese and foreign tourists had Ranchi, it seemed he was perfectly ca- Islam is the official religion of Malay- been ready to descend to a lower alti- pable of managing his still-formidable sia, where about 60 percent of the popu- tude after sightseeing when the storm political empire. Scores of aides and lation is Muslim. hit, Xinhua reported, citing the local supporters were clustered outside the Judge Mohamed Apandi Ali said the government. Xinhua said rescuers jail’s iron gate, bearing coconuts and use of the word by non-Muslims was a were clearing a path to the camp. No handwritten letters. Prison guards let threat to the Muslim community. casualties had been reported by Mon- visitors in and out at regular intervals, ‘‘It is my judgment that the most pos- day morning. Without proper acclima- as if they were operating a reception sible and probable threat to Islam, in the tion, severe altitude sickness can occur center. The Telegraph, Ranchi’s main context of this country, is the propaga- at the tourists’ current level, about English-language daily newspaper, re- tion of other religions to the followers of 17,000 feet. ported that he had summoned a tailor Islam,’’ he wrote in his decision, accord- Unlike the south base camp in Nepal, to his cell. ing to the news Web site Malaysiakini. which is usually reached by trekking, When a local anticorruption activist Use of the word Allah ‘‘is not an integ- tourists often drive up to the north base filed a complaint, charging that the vis- MANPREET ROMANA FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES ral part of the faith in Christianity,’’ the camp in Tibet by jeep and visit the its were a major violation of prison reg- Kameshwar Baitha in Daltenganj, India. He was elected to Parliament despite facing 17 charges for murder and 22 for attempted murder. judge said. ‘‘The usage of the word will nearby Rongbuk Monastery. The north ulations, Mr. Prasad decided to keep a cause confusion in the community.’’ base camp is often visited as part of a low profile by receiving visitors only In a country where religion, ethnicity tour that includes other prominent after 3 p.m., the newspaper reported. It is not yet clear whether this will For his part, Mr. Baitha admitted and politics are tightly intertwined, non- sights in central Tibet, including Tashil- His visitors all said the charges were Since 2008, 30 percent of the change now, said Neerja Chowdhury, a some anxiety about the changes in Indi- Muslim groups reacted with anger at hunpo Monastery in Shigatse, the seat false. winners in India’s national journalist and political commentator. an politics, which he acknowledged the decision. Most of the country’s top of the Panchen Lama, and the Potala ‘‘People in Delhi don’t want the poor and regional elections faced Major parties may steer clear of candi- could have prevented him from running leaders are Malay Muslims. Palace in Lhasa, once the home of the people to rise,’’ said one of them, Kumar criminal charges, according to dates facing criminal charges, fearful of in the first place. Jagir Singh, the head of the Malaysian now-exiled Dalai Lama. Lakshman, 28. ‘‘Lalu is causing the poor losing a seat in case of disqualification. The new rigor over lawmakers’ crim- Consultative Council of Buddhism, people to rise.’’ a research group. But they may also consider the outpour- inal convictions, he said, has put a Christianity, Hinduism, Sikhism and HANOI Nationwide, the number of Indian of- ing of popular support extended to Mr. powerful new weapon in the hands of Taoism, an interfaith group, described Vietnam braces for Typhoon Nari ficeholders facing criminal charges is sweep them into office. Corruption is Prasad or Jaganmohan Reddy, another the political opposition and has called the decision as ‘‘appalling.’’ The leaders Vietnam on Monday evacuated more extraordinary: 30 percent of winners in widespread. regional leader facing corruption into question the judgment of voters, of the country’s main Islamist party, than 180,000 people from coastal areas national and regional elections since But it is also true that spending limits charges. who are, he added, perfectly aware who Pas, have repeatedly said that Christi- that lie in the path of Typhoon Nari. 2008, according to the Association for are so low that virtually any candidate ‘‘It is a strange paradox. There is they are voting into office. ans and other non-Muslims should be The storm passed over the Philippines Democratic Reforms, a research group bent on winning would have to be willing huge sympathy for him, and by all ac- ‘‘I have this concern, that my political free to use the word Allah. over the weekend, killing 13 people. based in New Delhi. The reasons are to break the law. The penalty for filing counts he is gaining ground,’’ Ms. Chow- career ends because of these charges,’’ The Rev. Lawrence Andrew, editor of Nari was expected to hit the central Vi- manifold; as India’s democratic system false charges is negligible. And India’s dhury said of Mr. Reddy. Corruption, he said, but then he collected himself. the Catholic newspaper, The Herald, etnamese coast early Tuesday with evolved, candidates depended heavily independence movement was founded she added, ‘‘is more of an urban middle- ‘‘I have full faith it will not happen to said they planned to appeal the verdict sustained winds of up to 133 kilometers, on thuggish ‘‘muscle men,’’ and later on civil disobedience, so lawbreaking is class issue rather than for groups who me,’’ he said. ‘‘I have faith in the judicial in Malaysia’s Federal Court, the nation’s about 85 miles, an hour. (AP) ‘‘money men,’’ to influence voters and enmeshed in the political culture. are in ascendance.’’ system.’’ highest, The Associated Press reported. .. INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | 5 ... 6 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES world news united states

Medical credit cards often followed by crushing debt

ety of medical cards and lines of credit, of nearly 30 percent. Mr. Dorsey said he High-interest option as well as of hundreds of court filings in was being pursued by debt collectors. grows among patients connection with civil lawsuits brought ‘‘This whole ordeal has been devas- by state authorities and others, shows tating,’’ said Mr. Dorsey, who along with who see no other choice how perilous such financial arrange- other patients is part of a civil lawsuit ments can be for patients — and how ad- filed against Aspen in a federal court in upstate New York. He said he still BY JESSICA SILVER-GREENBERG vantageous they can be for health care providers. needed dentures, noting that the ones The dentist set to work, tapping and Many of these cards initially charge he had received from Aspen were unus- probing, then put down his tools and de- no interest for a promotional period, able. livered the news. His patient, Patricia typically 6 to 18 months, an attractive Diane Koi-Thompson said that her fa- Gannon, needed a partial denture. The feature for people worried about wheth- ther, Harold Koi-Than, did not realize cost: more than $5,700. er they can afford care. But if the debt is that he had signed up for a CareCredit Ms. Gannon, 78, was staggered. She not paid in full when that time is up, high card during a dental visit. She said Mr. rates — usually 25 percent to 30 percent Koi-Than, 82, was shocked when a com- — kick in, the review by The Times pany representative called his home A vulnerable age found. If payments are late, patients near Niagara Falls, New York, saying Caught in debt face additional fees and, in most cases, he had missed a payment. ‘‘My dad had their rates increase automatically. The no idea he had a credit card, let alone said she could not afford it. And her in- higher rates are often retroactive, that he was behind on it,’’ Ms. Koi- surance would pay only a small portion. meaning that they are applied to pa- Thompson said. She said her father was But she was barely out of the chair, her tients’ original balances, rather than to upset because he was normally meticu- mouth still sore, when her dentist’s of- the amount they still owe. lous with his finances and thought his fice held out a solution: a special line of For patients, the financial con- memory was failing. Mr. Koi-Than, credit to help cover her bill. Before she sequences can be dire. through a family member, was able to knew it, Ms. Gannon recalled, the office Ms. Gannon said she was happy with cancel the credit card. manager was taking down her financial her dental care, despite the cost, and The industry’s growth is being driven details. there was no suggestion that Dr. by people seeking dental care and But what seemed like the perfect an- Knellinger had done anything wrong. devices like hearing aids, which are not swer — seemed, in fact, like just what But attorneys general in several states covered by Medicare. Dental care is a the doctor ordered — has turned into a have filed lawsuits claiming that other large and expensive gulf, according to quagmire. Her new loan ensured that dentists and professionals have misled Tricia Neuman, the director of Medicare the dentist, Dr. Dan A. Knellinger, would patients about the financial terms of the policy research at the Kaiser Family be paid in full upfront. But for Ms. Gan- cards, employed high-pressure sales Foundation. The new federal health non, the price was steep: an annual in- tactics, overcharged for treatments and care law, she said, will not change that. terest rate of about 23 percent, with a 33 billed for unauthorized work. ‘‘Lack of dental coverage remains a percent penalty rate kicking in if she The New York attorney general’s of- huge concern and expense,’’ Ms. Neu- missed a payment. fice found that health care providers man said. She said that Dr. Knellinger’s office had pressured patients into getting Working with care providers, finan- subsequently suggested another form credit cards from one company, Care- cial services companies have rushed to of financing, a medical credit card, to Credit, a unit of General Electric, which fill the void. To make medical cards at- pay for more work. Now, her minimum gave some providers incentives based tractive, some companies offer them monthly dental bill, about $214 all told, is on the volume of transactions. Patients, without checking patients’ credit histor- eating up a third of her Social Security the investigation found, were misled ies. The cards can be arranged in check. If she is late, she faces a penalty about the terms of the credit cards, and minutes, with no upfront charges. Such of about $50. in some instances, duped into believing features are attractive selling points. ‘‘I am worried that I will be paying for that they were agreeing to a payment ‘‘Your patient does not require good this until I die,’’ says Ms. Gannon, who plan with dental offices when, in fact, credit,’’ First Health Funding of Salt lives in Dunedin, Florida. Dr. they were being pushed into high-cost Lake City says on its Web site. On the Knellinger, who works out of Palm Har- plastic. site of another lender, the words ‘‘No bor, Florida, did not respond to requests In June, CareCredit reached a pact Credit Check’’ flash in bright letters. for comment. with Eric T. Schneiderman, the New First Health Funding did not respond to In dentists’ and doctors’ offices, hear- York attorney general, to improve pro- requests for comment. ing aid centers and pain clinics, U.S. tections for consumers, and a spokes- Lawyers and others who assist pa- health care is forging a lucrative alli- woman said the company ‘‘does not in- tients say such features make it easy for ance with U.S. finance. A growing num- centivize providers to have patients people who are already on a weak finan- ber of health care professionals are urg- open accounts’’ or give referral fees to cial footing to take on new debt. ing patients to pay for treatment not providers. ‘‘Ultimately, this credit facilitates a covered by their insurance plans with In Ohio, the attorney general has sued bad financial decision that will haunt a credit cards and lines of credit that can the operators of several hearing aid patient because it adds to indebted- be arranged quickly in the provider’s of- clinics, claiming that they misled cus- ness,’’ said Ellen Cheek, who runs a le- fice. tomers about using medical credit cards gal help line for older people through The cards and loans, which were first to pay for batteries and warranties. Bay Area Legal Services in Tampa, marketed about a decade ago for cos- Cameron P. Kmet, a chiropractor in Florida. metic surgery and other elective proce- Anchorage, Alaska, said he had stopped Such critics also say that because dures, are now proliferating among offering medical cards. ‘‘One missed there are no industrywide standards for older Americans, who often face large payment can really ruin a patient’s life,’’ pricing care — costs vary from practice out-of-pocket expenses for basic care he said. to practice — the cards could encourage that is not covered by Medicare or Mr. Kmet now runs a company that providers to charge more for treat- private insurance. administers payment plans directly be- ment. The American Medical Association tween providers and patients, with an- Brian Cohen, the lawyer representing and the American Dental Association nual interest rates around 8 percent. Mr. Dorsey, said the cards enabled pro- have no formal policy on the cards, but Regarding medical credit cards, Mr. viders to ‘‘bill whatever they want for some practitioners refuse to use them, Kmet said he had urged providers to ask CHIP LITHERLAND FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES care, regardless of whether the cost is saying they threaten to exploit the tradi- themselves ‘‘whether this is something The line of credit Patricia Gannon, 78, took out to pay for a partial denture now swallows a third of her monthly Social Security benefits. reasonable.’’ tional relationship between provider that you would recommend to a family State authorities say health care fi- and patient. Doctors, dentists and oth- member or friend.’’ The answer, he said, nance in general, and medical credit ers have a financial incentive to recom- is usually no. more than a thousand dentists offered CareCredit because it gives them the said Lisa Landau, who heads the health cards in particular, are a growing mend the financing because it encour- While medical credit cards resemble the iCare finance plan — a program that ability to plan, budget and pay for cer- care unit at the New York attorney gen- worry. ages patients to choose procedures and other credit cards, there is a critical dif- requires patients to pay 30 percent tain elective health care procedures eral’s office. In 2010, Aspen Dental, the chain products that they might otherwise ference: They are usually marketed by down, as well as a fee of 15 percent of the over time,’’ said Cristy Williams, the Minnesota’s attorney general, Lori where Mr. Dorsey signed up for a card, forgo because they are not covered by caregivers to patients, often at vulner- total procedure cost. The number of par- spokeswoman for CareCredit. She said Swanson, is investigating the use of reached a settlement with the Pennsyl- insurance. It also ensures that pro- able times — when those patients are in ticipating providers has since risen to the company had improved consumer medical credit cards, which she said vania authorities over claims that, viders get paid upfront — a fact that fi- pain, for instance, or when their pro- 4,200. protections, going so far as to telephone could come with ‘‘hidden tripwires and among other things, it had failed to tell nancial services companies promote in viders have recommended care they Russell A. Salton, the chief executive ‘‘senior cardholders with significant other perils.’’ patients that missing a payment would marketing material to providers. cannot readily afford. of Access One MedCard, a credit card first transactions to confirm their un- Interviews with patients, along with mean the rate would rocket from zero to One of the financing companies, iCare In addition to companies like General company in Charlotte, North Carolina, derstanding of the program and the review of contracts and lawsuits, nearly 30 percent. Financial of Atlanta, which offers fi- Electric, large banks like Wells Fargo said demand for specialized cards — the terms.’’ show just how significant those perils A review of court records and online nancing plans through providers’ of- and Citibank, as well as several special- MedCard has an annual interest rate of She said roughly 80 percent of pa- can be. forums shows hundreds of customer fices, asks providers on its Web site: ized financial services companies, offer 9.25 percent — is driven by providers in- tients who opted for the deferred in- Carl Dorsey, 74, recalled his experi- complaints against Aspen, which is ‘‘How much money are you losing credit through practitioners’ offices. terested in removing an ‘‘obstacle to terest paid off their debts before they ence at Aspen Dental Management, a based in Syracuse, New York. A civil everyday by not offering iCare to your The growth of this form of consumer providing valuable care.’’ The company were charged any interest. She and oth- nationwide chain that has come under case brought on behalf of customers is patients?’’ During the past three years, credit is difficult to quantify because says the number of hospitals offering its ers in the industry said the credit cards scrutiny for its practices. Mr. Dorsey pending in a federal court in upstate the company’s enrollment has grown data on medical credit cards specifical- credit cards has grown about 25 percent and credit lines had helped patients af- said that after a dentist at Aspen’s office New York. 320 percent. ly, as opposed to credit cards generally, a year in recent years. ford otherwise prohibitively expensive in Seekonk, Massachusetts, told him Kasey Pickett, a spokeswoman for Another company posted a video on- are unavailable. But credit cards of all While neither national medical or care not paid for at all, or in its entirety, that he needed dentures, at a cost of Aspen, which is fighting the lawsuit, line that shows patients suddenly van- types are playing a growing role in fi- dental associations have formal by insurance providers. $2,634, he was urged to take out a medic- said the accusations were ‘‘entirely ishing outside a medical office because nancing medical care. In 2010, people in policies, ADA Business Enterprises, a But state authorities and care advo- al credit card. He was charged the full without merit.’’ they cannot afford treatment. The com- the United States charged about $45 bil- profit-making arm of the American cates in California, Florida, Illinois, cost upfront, financial statements re- Aspen provides mandatory training pany offers a financing plan as a rem- lion in health care costs on credit cards, Dental Association that connects dent- Michigan and elsewhere say that older viewed by The Times show. for office employees who discuss financ- edy, with the scene on the video shifting according to the consulting firm McKin- ists and businesses, endorses GE’s people — many of them grappling with Mr. Dorsey, who made about $800 a ing with patients, according to Ms. Pick- to a smiling doctor with dollar signs sey & Co. CareCredit, whose cards are used by dwindling savings and mounting debt month working as a used-car salesman, ett. ‘‘We know that for many patients,’’ headed toward him. ‘‘When the economy got worse, our more than seven million people nation- — are running into trouble with medical in addition to receiving Social Security, she said, ‘‘the availability of third-party A review by The New York Times of business got better,’’ said Katie Kessing, wide. credit cards and loans. has since fallen behind on his payments. financing may be the only way that they dozens of customer contracts for a vari- an iCare spokeswoman. In 2010, a few ‘‘Cardholders tell us they like using ‘‘The cards prey on seniors’ trust,’’ The lapse set off a penalty interest rate are able to afford the care they need.’’ Ex-chief of Nobel-winning agency says Bush officials orchestrated ouster

PARIS first time, confirmed his account. vote,’’ Mr. Bolton said. made that argument after we invaded,’’ Mr. Bolton insists that Mr. Bustani was But still Mr. Bustani refused, and his he said. BY MARLISE SIMONS ousted for incompetence. In a telephone fate was sealed. The United States had But diplomats in The Hague said offi- interview Friday, he confirmed that he marshaled its allies, and at an extraordi- cials in Washington had circulated a More than a decade before the interna- had confronted Mr. Bustani. ‘‘I told him nary session, Mr. Bustani was ousted by document saying that the chemical tional agency that monitors chemical if he left voluntarily, we would give him a a vote of 48 to 7, with 43 abstentions. weapons watchdog under Mr. Bustani weapons was awarded the Nobel Peace gracious and dignified exit,’’ he said. Mr. Bolton’s office had also circulated was seeking an ‘‘inappropriate role in Prize, John R. Bolton marched into the As Mr. Bustani tells the story, the cam- a document that accused Mr. Bustani of Iraq,’’ which was a matter for the U.N. office of its boss to inform him that he paign against him began in late 2001, abrasive conduct and taking ‘‘ill-con- Security Council. would be fired. after Iraq and Libya had indicated that sidered initiatives’’ without consulting On Friday, while fielding a flow of ‘‘He told me I had 24 hours to resign,’’ they wanted to join the Chemical with the United States and other mem- messages in his office, Mr. Bustani said said José Bustani, who was director Weapons Convention, the international ber nations, diplomats said. he felt gratified about the Nobel Prize general of the agency, the Organization treaty that the watchdog agency over- But Mr. Bustani and some senior offi- news and did not regret his days at the for the Prohibition of Chemical sees. To join, countries have to provide a cials, both in Brazil and the United agency. ‘‘I had to start it from the begin- Weapons in The Hague. ‘‘And if I didn’t, list of stockpiles and agree to the inspec- States, said Washington acted because ning, create a code of conduct, a pro- I would have to face the consequences.’’ tion and destruction of weapons, as Syr- it believed that the organization under gram of technical assistance,’’ he said. Mr. Bolton, then an under secretary of ia did last month after applying. Inspec- Mr. Bustani threatened to become an ‘‘We almost doubled the membership.’’ state and later the American ambassa- tors from the agency were making plans obstacle to the administration’s plans to He reflected on the contrast between dor to the United Nations, told Mr. Bus- to visit Iraq in late January 2002, he said. invade Iraq. As justification, Washing- Iraq and Syria. tani that the Bush administration was ‘‘We had a lot of discussions because ton was claiming that Saddam Hussein, ‘‘In 2002, the U.S. was determined to unhappy with his management style. we knew it would be difficult,’’ Mr. Bus- the Iraqi leader, possessed chemical oppose Iraq joining the convention But Mr. Bustani, 68, who had been re- SERGE LIGTENBERG/THE ASSOCIATED PRESS tani, who is now Brazil’s ambassador to weapons, but Mr. Bustani said his own against the weapons, which it did not elected unanimously just 11 months José Bustani, front, before a special session in The Hague in 2002 that called for his re- France, said Friday in his embassy of- experts had told him that those even have,’’ he said. ‘‘This time, joining earlier, refused, and weeks later, on moval as director general of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. fice in Paris. The plans, which he had weapons were destroyed in the 1990s, the convention and having the inspec- April 22, 2002, he was ousted in a special conveyed to a number of countries, after the Gulf War. tors present is part of the Syrian peace session of the 145-nation chemical ‘‘caused an uproar in Washington,’’ he ‘‘Everybody knew there weren’t plan. It is such a fundamental shift.’’ weapons watchdog. file since then. But with the agency fear that chemical weapons inspections said. Soon, he was receiving warnings any,’’ he said. ‘‘An inspection would The story behind his ouster has been thrust into the spotlight with news of the in Iraq would conflict with Washington’s from American and other diplomats. make it obvious there were no weapons SYRIAN REBELS URGED TO COOPERATE the subject of interpretation and specu- Nobel Prize last week, Mr. Bustani rationale for invading it. Several offi- Mr. Bolton called on Mr. Bustani a to destroy. This would completely nulli- Pressure mounted on the rebels to lation for years, and Mr. Bustani, a agreed to discuss what he said was the cials involved in the events, some second time. ‘‘I tried to persuade him fy the decision to invade.’’ permit inspectors access to chemical Brazilian diplomat, has kept a low pro- real reason: the Bush administration’s speaking publicly about them for the not to put the organization through the Mr. Bolton disputed that account. ‘‘He arms sites under their control. PAGE 10 .. INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | 7

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ARTHUR OCHS SULZBERGER JR., Publisher Europe, lost on the digital planet JILL ABRAMSON, Executive Editor STEPHEN DUNBAR-JOHNSON, President, International Sylvie Kauffmann One European, in particular, owes diplomats to roll their eyes, the quieter economy minister, laments that Europe DEAN BAQUET, Managing Editor PHILIPPE MONTJOLIN, Senior V.P., International Operations Mr. Snowden big time. Viviane Reding, E.U. commissioner for home affairs, doesn’t have a major Internet company. CONTRIBUTING WRITER TOM BODKIN, Deputy Managing Editor ACHILLES TSALTAS, V.P., International Conferences the European Union’s justice commis- Cecilia Malmström, bluntly told her The Web giants — the French call them LAWRENCE INGRASSIA, Assistant Managing Editor CHANTAL BONETTI, V.P., International Human Resources sioner, had been preaching in the wil- U.S. counterparts on July 4 that ‘‘mutu- ‘‘GAFA,’’ for Google, Apple, Facebook RICHARD W. STEVENSON, Editor, Europe JEAN-CHRISTOPHE DEMARTA, V.P., International Advertising PARIS A decade ago, on a visit to the derness for 18 months, trying to push a al trust and confidence have been seri- and Amazon — monopolize the value of PHILIP McCLELLAN, Deputy Editor, Asia CHARLOTTE GORDON, V.P., International Marketing & Strategy U.S. Embassy here with a colleague for new private-data protection law. Earli- ously eroded.’’ On Sept. 11, she told the data, she says, including data collected PATRICE MONTI, V.P., International Circulation an interview, we were asked to leave er this year, intense lobbying by the under secretary of the U.S. Treasury, from 500 million Europeans. There is no ANDREW ROSENTHAL, Editorial Page Editor RANDY WEDDLE, Managing Director, Asia-Pacific our cellphones at the security gate. American Internet industry and gov- David S. Cohen, that she was ‘‘waiting European GAFA to turn to. TRISH HALL, Deputy Editorial Page Editor SUZANNE YVERNÈS, International Chief Financial Officer This was a new experience. We smiled, ernment, as well as opposition from for substantial information on the al- We joke that China has no Steve Jobs, TERRY TANG, Deputy Editorial Page Editor amused by this James Bond attitude. members — notably Britain, Ireland, leged access and processing of person- but it’s also true that Europe has no What kind of threat could these small, Germany and Sweden — forced her to al data of E.U. citizens by the U.S.’’ Google. Europe had Nokia, but it was MARK THOMPSON, Chief Executive Officer, The New YorkTimes Company innocent phones — still dumb, not yet soften her far-reaching proposals. This tapping would seem to violate sold to Microsoft. Ms. Pellerin supports STEPHEN DUNBAR-JOHNSON, Président et Directeur de la Publication smart, at the time — possibly pose? But then the N.S.A. scandal changed two hard-fought agreements, concluded a European regulatory regime for digit- They might, we were told, be used as the dynamic. On July 14, Chancellor An- after 9/11, that gave the United States al platforms, which will be taken up at listening devices. gela Merkel called for a strict European limited access to European financial an E.U. summit meeting on digital inno- Looking back, I wonder who might agreement on data protection. ‘‘Internet and travel data. But Ms. Malmström vation, on Oct. 24-25. But it will be an up- have been listening on whom. Following companies which are operating in feels the United States is stonewalling. hill battle: Britain’s Internet interests Edward J. Snowden’s leaks about wire- Europe, such as Facebook and Google, ‘‘I am not satisfied with what we have align with America’s, and Sweden con- FUKUSHIMA POLITICS taps by the National Security Agency, must give European countries informa- received so far,’’ she told a European siders its national privacy-protection the irony of this episode is obvious now. tion about whom they have given data Parliament hearing on Sept. 24. system to be adequate, with no need for ‘‘Zero nuclear plants.’’ With this recent call, Japan’s very Like our phones, we are smarter than to,’’ she said. Five days later, French and Outside of Brussels, though, the Euro- another level of E.U. oversight. A former popular former prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, is again in we were 10 years ago. And thanks to Mr. German ministers gave their support to pean powers have been more muted in The French scientist Stéphane national the limelight. His bold new stance challenges his protégé, Snowden, we now know what can be the commission’s efforts. ‘‘Thank you, their outrage — at least compared with Grumbach, an expert on big data, con- leader in Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose policies would restart as done with these small machines on Mr. Snowden!’’ Ms. Reding proclaimed. leaders like Brazil’s president, Dilma tends that ‘‘if the U.S. puts so much em- which we have come to depend. Thanks On Oct. 7-8, the 28 E.U. justice minis- Rousseff, who postponed an official visit phasis on this industry, it is also be- many nuclear power plants as possible (now all shut down), Japan, to our constant use of electronic connec- ters met to discuss the establishment of to Washington, furious that her conver- cause the data it collects around the once a and even promote the export of nuclear reactors. Mr. Koi- tions, our whole life is out there in the a ‘‘one-stop shop’’ for complaints re- sations had been listened to. world gives it so much information.’’ As zumi deems the pursuit of nuclear power ‘‘aimless’’ and ‘‘ir- supporter cloud, summed up in four letters: data. garding the protection of personal data. Some European governments — get things stand, he told me, the Euro- responsible.’’ Sometimes we feel that the cloud The N.S.A. leaks also gave new im- ready to be surprised — happen to en- American digital conversation is of nuclear Japan should welcome Mr. Koizumi’s intervention and be- knows more about ourselves than we do. petus to the fight for data privacy in the gage in large-scale spying on foreign simply ‘‘a dialogue between a colonial power, now gin a healthy debate on the future of nuclear power that has And we fear that the data sitting there European Parliament, which has been targets. Ireland is the European base of power and colonized countries.’’ wants a not occurred in the two and a half years since the Fukushima are up for grabs, unprotected. If the actively pushing its own reforms. A huge American tech companies. The L’affaire Snowden has raised crucial N.S.A. has no effective limits on its young German M.E.P. and the rappor- British government, whose data shar- questions on privacy and control of the disaster. The Japanese Diet did conduct an independent in- total ban. reach, surely our conception of privacy teur of the draft law, Jan Philipp Al- ing with the United States through Internet. To European citizens, the vestigation, which concluded Fukushima to be a man-made must be rethought. President Obama, brecht, is incensed that the U.S. govern- trans-Atlantic fiber-optic cables was ex- claim from Silicon Valley lobbyists that disaster. But the investigation did not lead to serious parlia- questioned about the scope of the Prism ment hasn’t provided any explanations. posed by Mr. Snowden, has pressured any E.U. regulation would create a mentary debate. electronic surveillance program, initially Anyone who has seen the Oscar-winning The Guardian, one of the organizations ‘‘Fortress Europe,’’ destroying their Mr. Koizumi shows that there is quite a split on the issue in told his fellow Americans (not quite ac- 2006 film ‘‘The Lives of Others,’’ about that broke the N.S.A. story. business model and killing innovation, the political class. His change of views is startling. As a pro- curately, it turned out): ‘‘With respect to the eavesdropping of the Communist The big takeaway may be that doesn’t sound so innocent. It just growth prime minister from 2001 to 2006, Mr. Koizumi was an the Internet and e-mails, this does not Stasi, can understand why the Prism Europe has come to realize how de- doesn’t fly — not even to the cloud. enthusiastic proponent of cheap and clean nuclear power. apply to U.S. citizens, and it does not ap- revelations hit a raw nerve in Germany. pendent and powerless it is on this new ply to people living in the United States.’’ Along with Ms. Reding, so fiery that digital planet. SYLVIE KAUFFMANN is the editorial director Now he declares that it is the most expensive form of energy, We Europeans got the message. the mere mention of her name causes Fleur Pellerin, the French digital and a former editor in chief of Le Monde. citing not only the many billions of dollars needed to clean up Fukushima but also the unknown cost and method of dealing with nuclear waste. He also criticizes the current govern- ment’s assumption that nuclear power is essential for eco- nomic growth. Ever the acute reader of political moods, Mr. Koizumi ar- gues that a zero nuclear policy could be cause for a great so- cial movement in a country still gripped by economic gloom after 15 years of deflation. In the wake of Fukushima, one would think that the Japanese government could not restart nuclear power reactors without firm public support. Not so. According to opinion polls, the majority of Japanese oppose nuclear power, even among supporters of the Abe govern- ment. A poll last week found that 76 percent of people sur- veyed said they did not think the Fukushima plant was ‘‘un- der control.’’ The government reckons the earthquake and tsunami that struck Fukushima is a once-in-a-thousand-year occurrence. Yet it also estimates that there is a 60 percent to 70 percent probability of a massive earthquake and tsunami hitting the most densely populated coastline within the next 30 years. That coastline, dotted with nuclear power plants, reaches from Tokyo through Nagoya and Osaka to the southern is- land of Kyushu. Prime Minister Abe has been stressing the need to shed the deflation mentality for Japan to lift itself out of economic stagnation. Japan can certainly do with a change in attitude. Mr. Koizumi makes a compelling argument that if the ruling Liberal Democratic Party were to announce a zero nuclear policy, ‘‘the nation could come together in the creation of a recyclable society unseen in the world,’’ and the public mood would rise in an instant.

TESTING EUROPE’S CONSCIENCE YANN KEBBI After the drowning of more than 300 refugees near the Italian Helping island of Lampedusa, the European Commission president, refugees José Manuel Barroso, pledged ¤30 million, or $40.5 million, will require last week to help Italy deal with an overwhelming influx of expanded refugees. While this is a good start, it is far from enough. rescue On Friday, another boat carrying more than 200 refugees Somalia’s leader: Look past the hype capsized off the coast of Sicily, leaving more than 30 people missions dead. Over the past two decades, 20,000 migrants have died self-blame. I was troubled that Doctors deficiency. He has lost credibility gardless, an even bigger question: and aid trying to make it across the Mediterranean to Europe’s Nuruddin Farah Without Borders felt compelled to quit among the countries contributing to the What action, if any, the president will for those shores. According to Frontex, the European agency charged Somalia after the murders of two staff 17,700-member African Union mission take in regard to Sheik Hassan Dahir with managing Europe’s borders, 73,000 migrants illegally members, Andrias Karel Keiluhu and that is propping up his regime. A Aweys, now in government custody who reach Phillipe Havet, in December 2011. ‘‘Ac- United Nations monitoring group has after fleeing Al Shabab’s redoubt in crossed Europe’s borders in 2012 and 115,000 more were Europe. ANNANDALE-ON-HUDSON, NEW YORK ceptance of violence against health accused associates of his of fleecing the Barawa (the scene of a recent Navy turned away. Most flee political turmoil and economic col- One can’t talk about recent news from workers has permeated Somali society central bank. To refute these explosive Seal operation to capture a different ter- lapse at home, with thousands seeking refuge in Europe after Somalia — the deadly attack by Shabab and this acceptance is now shared by charges — which could lead to the loss rorist). Sheik Aweys is an elder states- regime change in Tunisia, the war in Libya and, most recently, militants on a U.N. compound in June, many armed groups and many levels of of billions of dollars in foreign aid — Mr. man of religious radicals. He was forced the conflict in Syria. These numbers have spawned organized the decision in August by Doctors With- civilian government,’’ the group, which Mohamud hired British and American to flee his base in June after an internal criminal networks that prey upon desperate refugees. out Borders to pull out of the country, tries to stay above politics, said in ex- consultants. But these consultants dispute within Al Shabab; he was flown Increased migration has been exploited by far right politic- the massacre last month at a shopping plaining its decision were hardly objective: According to to Mogadishu and questioned. al parties to fan fears of refugees as threats to living stan- mall in Kenya, for which Al Shabab took Hassan Sheik to withdraw from So- The Financial Times, the British con- But will he ever be brought to trial? responsibility — without in some way malia after 22 years. sultants were linked to a potential oil Or handed over to the United States, dards and national identities. Marine Le Pen, leader of Mohamud speaking about Somalia’s president, What’s appalling is exploration deal, while the American which has designated him a terrorist; or France’s far-right National Front party, declared during a Hassan Sheik Mohamud. may be the that the killer was ones had been hired by the Somali gov- to Ethiopia or Kenya, which would like controversial visit to Lampedusa in 2011 that the way to pre- Just a year into his presidency, Mr. darling of identified: Ahmed ernment to recover overseas assets. to ask him questions about his terror- vent more drownings there was to force refugees back before Mohamud has become a darling of the the West, Salad Farey, himself In a country torn by decades of war, ism-related activities, including the re- they could get near European shores. Polls last week show West — his is the first Somali govern- but he has a former Doctors the number of political panhandlers cent deadly attack on a mall in Nairobi? record-breaking levels of voter support for Ms. Le Pen and ment officially recognized by the United a lot to Without Borders scavenging for scraps on which to feed If Mr. Farey, the murderous catalyst her party ahead of French municipal elections. States since 1991, even though it con- answer for. worker. He was con- their ambitions is too great to count. for the decision by Doctors Without Bor- trols only a fraction of the country — victed last year and Online news sites and radio stations ders to quit Somalia, can regain his free- To prevent more tragedies, the European Commission pro- and of the oil-rich Arab rulers who want sentenced to 30 years serve up a daily fare of vitriol and dom after killing two innocent people, it poses expanding search and rescue operations by Frontex. security around the Horn of Africa. in prison. But mysteriously, a panel of abuse, with contributors propagating seems likely that Sheik Aweys, a man Such a move would need additional funding from E.U. mem- But when I last visited Somalia, in appellate judges ordered his release their clan’s agendas. Of the no-holds- supported by his powerful kinsmen, has ber states, which may prove a political challenge. Equally April, my friends thought that Mr. Mo- after he’d served about three months. barred allegations that have been nothing to worry about. Those in the challenging is breaking up the human trafficking networks as hamud didn’t have the determination to A government source whom I trust made, I would point out two. Ahmed Is- West — like Time magazine, which in well as providing aid to those who qualify under immigration lead the country, nor the hardiness to told me that the government did not mail Samatar, a political scientist at April named the president one of the law to stay in Europe and arranging for humane repatriation stand up to clan elders who have con- open a public inquiry or even an intern- Macalester College who ran for presi- world’s 100 most influential people, and for those who do not. It is cruel to impose, as does Italian law, tributed so much to the two-decade- al investigation. My source also told me dent last year, has blamed his defeat on published a short essay by the Rwandan plus civil war and still dominate the that Mr. Farey has lived openly in Guri- vote rigging and vote buying. Even president, Paul Kagame, praising him — stiff fines and deportation on survivors of human trafficking. country. A former prime minister, Ali el, his hometown in central Somalia, more troubling, Ali Khalif Gallaydh, a would be wise to re-evaluate their rosy President François Hollande of France says he will raise the Mohamed Gedi, has called him an in- since his release, although the presi- member of Parliament and a former assessments until Mr. Mohamud com- migration issue with European leaders this month. The inter- competent novice. dent of the Supreme Court has signed a prime minister, has alleged (citing un- mits himself to the principles on the national community could also help by offering more refugees In fairness, nothing Mr. Mohamud new warrant for his arrest. named British and American intelli- basis of which he was elected. sanctuary beyond Europe’s borders. Europe alone cannot does will appease all Somalis, who are You would expect the president of a gence sources) that Mr. Mohamud has deal with the consequences of war and repressive regimes in notorious for their petty-mindedness, dysfunctional state like Somalia to contacts with Al Shabab, the Islamist NURUDDIN FARAH, a professor of literature Africa and the Middle East. The tragedy near Lampedusa is their tendency to focus on their griev- move with greater alacrity to bolster affiliate of Al Qaeda in East Africa. at Bard College, is the author, most re- ances, their constant warring. confidence in the rule of law. Mr. Mo- It is impossible to tell whether these cently, of a trilogy of novels: ‘‘Links,’’ more than a European tragedy. It is a human tragedy. As a Somali, I share in this frisson of hamud has not done so. It’s not his only allegations are true. But there is, re- ‘‘Knots’’ and ‘‘Crossbones.’’ .. INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | 9 opinion

Mourning a people’s hero The current leaders are seen as corrupt Minh, no one else in modern Viet- Nguyen Qui Duc and self-serving, putting personal and namese history will be remembered business gains ahead of the public and celebrated in life and in death this good. way. Over the past week, thousands of While he was the most prominent HANOI The extreme chaos that charac- people queued up from early morning commander, leading many campaigns terizes daily life in this capital of Viet- until late night, snaking around the against the Americans, he fell out of fa- nam suddenly disappeared over the streets from the Ho Chi Minh Mauso- vor within the Communist Party after weekend. leum around to Dien Bien Phu, the the war. At one point, this military lion — Streets normally clogged with thou- street named after the devastating 1954 who had also been a professor of history, sands of impatient scooters, motor- battle where General Giap ended a journalist, defense minister, among cycles, taxis, cars and trucks were French domination in Indochina. many other roles — was given the hum- empty. Many of the raucous sidewalk From there, war veterans in wheel- bling post of vice prime minister for sci- beer halls, cafés and tea shops were no chairs, students, villagers and people ence and education. longer overfilled with students, day from all walks of life quietly followed Some of General Giap’s detractors laborers and competing mobile vendors. one another, step by step, toward the — particularly in the West — have The neon lights outside of the karaoke gate to General Giap’s home. written about his ruthlessness in send- bars stopped blinking, and TV sets that In small groups, carrying flowers, ing soldiers to die in battle. Others often show dancing pop stars or period they entered the old have lamented his reluctance later in films were silent black screens. General Giap French villa where life to speak out against the Commu- The quietude in this city of more than was honored General Giap had nist Party’s abuse of power, or to criti- six million people was the result of the lived for decades, cize abuses by the current crop of lead- death one man — Vo Nguyen Giap, gen- as a symbol of each person bowing ers. eral of the People’s Army of Vietnam, the decency, and paying respect in But the state-run media have been who oversaw the defeats of the French dignity and front of his portrait. repeating all the proper salutations for and the Americans and who died on rectitude that Blogs, social media his decisive military victories, his patri- Oct. 4 at the (estimated) age of 102. no longer ex- and news sites — otic attitude, and his loyalty to the Com- Hailed by his people and by histori- ist in the many of them state- munist Party. ans and leaders around the world as a ranks of Viet- controlled, to be sure Hanoi and other major cities in Viet- Adieu IHT, bonjour INYT brilliant military tactician and com- — have run continu- nam are holding ceremonies this week to mander, General Giap was the last of nam’s leaders. ous accounts of civil- mourn General Giap. Then the normal art to Bergman: ‘‘We’ll always have freshly bought, of the Herald Tribune. the revolutionaries who first brought ity, solidarity and chaos of life here will resume. Paris.’’ And in Paris, it seemed, there Only then did I no longer feel like a communism to Vietnam. kindness among the On Sunday, General Giap was flown would always be the Herald Tribune. tourist or a high-school kid. I was sud- Second only to the untouchable Ho Chi mourners waiting on line. Cafés offered from here to his home town in Quang The paper was a refuge for the holed- denly something better: an American Minh, General Giap had remained an en- free bottled water, shops brought out Binh Province, in central Vietnam, up expat, a good excuse for the second in Paris.’’ during symbol of anti-colonialism, anti- large umbrellas to shield people from where he was buried in a family plot, chilled Brouilly on the terrace of Le Se- An American in Paris: Four words imperialism and revolutionary fervor. sun, and student volunteers passed out overlooking the sea. lect, a discreet statement of worldli- that conjure a milieu, now long gone. Early Saturday morning, General paper fans. The fear among ordinary Vietnamese Roger ness, a ticket to membership in a bor- The Avenue Gordon Bennett com- Giap’s two-day funeral started at the On social media, Vietnamese posted — murmured, not openly spoken — is derless club, and a venue for memorates one such American. It is memorial hall of the Ministry of De- photos and videos of the general, many that General Giap’s death signals the fi- Cohen exploration of all the French-American named after James Gordon Bennett Jr., fense, a mammoth granite-walled about his military triumphs. Some re- nal disappearance of moral decency for rivalry that turned out to be just anoth- the publisher who founded the prede- structure often used for mourning offi- placed their Facebook profile pictures decades to come. er expression of the eternal French- cessor of the International Herald cials and veterans. Goose-stepping sol- with an image of the general, raising a The Boulevard was long and straight. American love affair. Tribune 126 years ago. Disgraced in diers in white uniforms took charge of clenched fist. Photos of General Giap NGUYEN QUI DUC, a former radio host, is a On one side there was shade under the The Trib was sexy. It got to the point New York, he had seen the potential, as countless wreaths and huge portraits of paying visits to former comrades, journalist based in Hanoi who has plane trees. On the other the sunlight while French papers meandered like American power spread, of an English- the military hero. many of them elderly men in their 80s covered Asia for public media in America shone white. I would walk down the the Seine through language paper in Europe — and of his Thousands of policemen and young and 90s, have been widely circulated. for more than 20 years. Boulevard to work, looking in the win- The Trib was Normandy. Ameri- own redemption. When he died in 1918, volunteers were deployed to provide ex- The popular attitude here is that dows. It was pleasant. Sometimes the a romantic can journalists knew as the Trib’s last publisher Stephen tra security as the Communist Party General Giap was the last of the old beautiful American girl was seated at how to find the facts Dunbar-Johnson noted last year, a general secretary, the president, the guard who could bring together the Vi- ROOM FOR DEBATE the café reading the International Her- newspaper, and tell a story with- trade publication declared: ‘‘The New prime minister and former party bosses etnamese this way — that his death in- As the French emulate ald Tribune. I glanced at her. She never but it is time out frills. If anyone York Herald, Paris edition, was prob- and government leaders led delegations spired people to exchange their nor- Americans, are they losing smiled. At the kiosk I bought my own to move on doubted a newspaper ably read by more rulers, potentates to pay respect in front of the altar. mal, disorderly behavior, in this a sense of who they are? copy of the paper. I sat nearby and under a could be sexy, all and men of high officialdom than any General Giap’s coffin was draped in rapidly developing economy, for Debra Ollivier, the author of ‘‘What ordered a cold beer. The waitress placed new name. they had to do was newspaper published.’’ the national flag, red with a gold star. quieter and more dignified traditional French Women Know’’; Alexandra it on a felt pad on the table. I drank the watch the pert Jean The Trib in reality has not died but Many Vietnamese mourned him not manners. For decades, General Giap Leaf, a cookbook author; Samir beer. Seberg, wearing a been reborn in new guise. The Interna- only as a military hero, but also as sym- had been the flickering light for a Meghelli, who is writing a trans-Atlantic Repressing one’s inner Hemingway Herald Tribune T-shirt, hawking the pa- tional New York Times, which begins bol of the decency, dignity and rectitude people desperate for a truly compas- history of hip hop; and Lorena Galliot, was never easy with the Trib in Paris. per (then The New York Herald life today, will bring the same global but that no longer exist in the ranks of Viet- sionate leader, and now that light has a journalist, take on the question. Now that the paper is gone it seems for- Tribune) in Jean-Luc Godard’s distinctly American prism to bear on nam’s leaders. Nepotism is rampant. been extinguished. Except for Ho Chi nytimes.com/roomfordebate givable to indulge a fantasy or two and ‘‘Breathless.’’ Case closed. the world’s affairs, and no doubt attract be romantic about it, at least for a mo- In Paris 35 years ago I started work- just as many rulers, potentates — and ment. ing for Paris Metro, a biweekly city women of high officialdom. The paper ended its days at the Place magazine enjoying a certain vogue. The very essence of America is creat- des Vosges. That would be the Place Back then to write was O.K. but to write ive churn. This is no time to be nostal- des Vosges in Courbevoie, not the beau- in Paris was to be halfway to becoming gic or sentimental. The world has a des- tiful eponymous square in the Marais a writer. Metro was good but its fi- perate need for high-quality journalism where I spent the dog days of 1976, talk- nances were parlous. Rumors aboun- and in-depth international coverage, ing about the heat, watching the foun- ded for a while that it would be bought however it is delivered. No brand name tains dry up and discovering the Herald by the Herald Tribune and become its is more synonymous across the globe Tribune. weekend magazine. There was a fris- with the commitment to such quality As the suburban denouement sug- son. Nothing more glorious or glamor- than The New York Times. This lover of gests, romance was by no means the ous was imaginable. (The talk came to the Trib loves The Times even more. whole story. Newspapering in the glob- nothing. Metro folded.) Will the romance be the same? Up to al marketplace has not been an easy Hendrik Hertzberg caught the es- a point, Lord Copper. These are digital ride of late. sence of the matter earlier this year, de- times: Hemingway flops at 140 charac- Still, the romance was there. The Trib scribing in The New Yorker his arrival ters or less. No matter, it is time to was a paper made for the world in the in Paris at age 17: ‘‘At the earliest possi- move on under a new name in the so- French capital by Americans, a trans- ble moment, I did four things. I sat phisticated spirit of the Trib: A voice for Atlantic hybrid that flattered Parisians, down at a little table at an outdoor café. America in the world at a time of Amer- made them feel more important. Berg- I ordered a glass of red wine. I lit a ican retrenchment — a reference, a man to Bogart: ‘‘What about us?’’ Bog- Gauloise. And I opened up my copy, refuge and a bridge. TRODUCING The Dixiecrat solution

means. Above all, he failed to offer the crats generally controlled Congress on one thing the White House won’t, can’t paper, but actual control often rested bend on: an end to extortion over the with an alliance between Republicans debt ceiling. Yet even this ludicrously and conservative Southerners who unbalanced offer was too much for con- were Democrats in name only. You may servative activists, who lambasted Mr. not like what this alliance did — among Ryan for basically leaving health re- other things, it killed universal health Paul form intact. insurance, which we might otherwise Does this mean that we’re going to have had 65 years ago. But at least Krugman hit the debt ceiling? Quite possibly; America had a functioning govern- nobody really knows, but careful ob- ment, untroubled by the kind of crazi- servers are giving no better than even ness that now afflicts us. odds that any kind of deal will be And right now we have all the neces- So you have this neighbor who has reached before the money runs out. Be- sary ingredients for a comparable alli- been making your life hell. First he tied yond that, however, our current state of ance, with roles reversed. Despite deni- you up with a spurious lawsuit; you’re dysfunction looks like a chronic condi- als from Republican leaders, everyone I both suffering from huge legal bills. tion, not a one-time event. Even if the talk to believes that it would be easy to Then he threatened bodily harm to debt ceiling is raised enough to avoid pass both a continuing resolution, re- your family. Now, however, he says he’s immediate default, even if the govern- opening the government, and an in- COMPLIMENTARY DIGITAL ACCESS TO THE NEW willing to compromise: He’ll call off the ment shutdown is somehow brought to crease in the debt lawsuit, which is to his advantage as an end, it will only be a temporary re- Our biggest ceiling, averting de- well as yours. But in return you must prieve. Conservative activists are problem isn’t fault, if only such INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES give him your car. Oh, and he’ll stop simply not willing to give up on the idea measures were threatening your family — but only for of ruling through extortion, and the the extremism brought to the House a week, after which the threats will re- Obama administration has decided, of Republican floor. How? The an- BROUGHT TO YOU BY CITI. sume. wisely, that it will not give in to extor- radicals but swer is, they would Not much of an offer, is it? But here’s tion. the cowardice get support from just UNLIMITED ACCESS* BEGINS TOMORROW the kicker: Your neighbor’s relatives, So how does this end? How does of the Repub- about all Democrats who have been egging him on, are furi- America become governable again? lican non- plus some Republi- THROUGH OCT. 19 AT INYT.COM. ous that he didn’t also demand that you One answer might be that we some- extremists. cans, mainly relative- kill your dog. how stumble through the next 13 ly moderate non- And now you understand the current months, and voters punish Republican Southerners. As I COURTESY OF state of budget negotiations. tactics by returning the House to said, Dixiecrats in reverse. Stocks surged last Friday in the belief Democratic control. Recent polls do The problem is that John Boehner, that House Republicans were getting show a large Democratic advantage on the speaker of the House, won’t allow ready to back down on their ransom de- the generic House ballot. But remem- such votes, because he’s afraid of the mands over the government shutdown ber, Democratic House candidates backlash from his party’s radicals. and the debt ceiling. But what Republi- already ‘‘won’’ in 2012, in the sense that Which points to a broader conclusion: cans were actually offering, it seems, they received more votes in total than The biggest problem we as a nation was the ‘‘compromise’’ Paul Ryan, the Republicans. Yet the vagaries of dis- face right now is not the extremism of chairman of the House Budget Commit- trict boundaries — partly, but not en- Republican radicals, which is a given, tee, laid out in a Wall Street Journal op- tirely, the result of gerrymandering — but the cowardice of Republican non- ed article: rolling back some of the ‘‘se- meant that the Republican majority in extremists (it would be stretching to quester’’ budget cuts — which both seats remained, and it would probably call them moderates). parties dislike; cuts in Medicare, but take a really huge Democratic sweep to The question for the next few days is with no quid pro quo in the form of dislodge G.O.P. control. whether plunging markets and urgent higher revenue; and only a temporary There is, however, another solution, appeals from big business will stiffen fix on the debt ceiling, so that we would and everyone knows what it is. Call it the non-extremists’ spines. For as far soon find ourselves in crisis again. Dixiecrats in reverse. as I can tell, the reverse-Dixiecrat *COMPLIMENTARY ACCESS IS FOR NONSUBSCRIBERS ONLY AND INCLUDES INYT.COM, NYTIMES.COM AND THE NYTIMES APPS FOR iPHONE®,iPAD® AND ANDROID™-POWERED DEVICES. ACCESS ENDS 10/19/2013, 5 P.M. ET. I do not think that word ‘‘compro- Here’s the precedent: For a long solution is the only way out of this mise’’ means what Mr. Ryan thinks it time, starting as early as 1938, Demo- mess. ... 10 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES world news united states middle east

Dispute over spending leaves Senate deal elusive

WASHINGTON The Democrats’ demand showed a Maine, one of the lead Republican nego- ‘‘You can’t just demand pure capitula- deal that reduces the deficit over the six months at those levels. The initial newfound aggressiveness. Previously, tiators. ‘‘Decisions within the Democrat- tion,’’ said Representative Tom Cole, long term. proposal by Ms. Collins would also have they had favored a so-called clean bill ic conference are constantly changing.’’ Republican of Oklahoma. ‘‘Negotiations Republicans have one advantage: If extended the debt ceiling only to Nov. Democrats refuse offer that would reopen the government and Senator John McCain, Republican of don’t work that way.’’ no deal is reached during those talks, 15, but at the request of Senate Demo- that would end shutdown lift the debt ceiling without any policy Arizona, warned on the CBS News pro- Republicans once said that they the next round of automatic cuts, even cratic leaders, she and Mr. McConnell changes attached. With Republicans on gram ‘‘Face the Nation’’ that the Demo- would finance the government only if deeper than the first, will go into force pushed it back to Jan. 31. but extend budget cuts the defensive, it remained unclear crats ‘‘better understand something.’’ the president’s health care law was gut- on Jan. 1. Mr. McConnell formally endorsed the whether the Democrats were using a ‘‘What goes around comes around,’’ ted. A bipartisan Senate framework ‘‘We know that come 10 years from Collins proposal on Sunday. BY JONATHAN WEISMAN negotiating ploy to raise the likelihood he said, ‘‘and if they try to humiliate Re- drafted by Ms. Collins and Senator Joe now, Medicare is not sustainable finan- ‘‘It would reopen the government, that any final deal would include their publicans, things change in American Manchin III, Democrat of West Virgin- cially,’’ Senator Richard J. Durbin of prevent a default, provide the opportu- With a possible default on U.S. govern- priorities as well as the Republicans’. politics.’’ ia, started with a face-saving move for Illinois, the second-ranking Democrat, nity for additional budget negotiations ment obligations just days away, Senate Democrats said Sunday that Senator A rally on the National Mall in Wash- Republicans of a repeal of a tax on med- said on the NBC News program ‘‘Meet around Washington’s long-term debt, Democratic leaders — believing they Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority ington, led by Senator Ted Cruz, Repub- ical devices that helps pay for the Af- the Press.’’ ‘‘We’ve got to do some- and maintain the commitment that Con- have a political advantage in the con- leader of the Senate, and Senator Mitch lican of Texas, and former Governor fordable Care Act. When Senate Demo- thing.’’ gress made to reduce Washington tinuing fiscal impasse — have refused to McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican Sarah Palin of Alaska, was intended to cratic leaders objected, that was ‘‘And I have to say to the Republican spending,’’ he said in a statement. ‘‘It’s sign on to any deal that reopens the gov- leader — who spoke only briefly by tele- show that Tea Party activists — sup- tempered to a two-year delay of the tax. side, ‘For goodness’ sakes, we cannot time for Democrat leaders to take ‘yes’ ernment but locks in budget cuts for phone — were inching forward, and that porters of the House Republicans who Republicans had also insisted on find some savings, closing some loop- for an answer.’’ next year. a breakthrough was possible before the forced the shutdown over their opposi- tightening income verification rules for holes, quote, raising revenue?’ Well, of But Democratic leaders have balked, The disagreement Sunday extended debt default deadline on Thursday. tion to the new health care law — were the health care law’s subsidized insur- course we can,’’ he said. and they flexed their muscle Sunday the stalemate that has kept much of the ‘‘They had a good conversation,’’ Sen- in no mood to give in. Some waved Con- ance exchanges. Now Democrats are The Collins plan would maintain se- with a group of Democratic and inde- government closed for two weeks and ator Charles E. Schumer of New York, federate flags and called for President rewriting that language as well. questration-level spending through Jan. pendent senators negotiating with Ms. threatens to force a federal default. the No. 3 Democrat, said on Sunday Obama to be impeached. ‘‘What am I getting?’’ Ms. Collins 15, when formal budget negotiators Collins. The core of the dispute is about evening. ‘‘They are moving closer to- The dispute may involve debt ceiling said. ‘‘I’m serious. I’ve bent over back- would be required to complete a House- Ms. Collins said eight Democrats spending, and how long a stopgap mea- gether, and I’m hopeful the Senate can technicalities, but at the core of the fight ward.’’ Senate agreement on spending and tax- were now involved in negotiations, in- sure that would reopen the government save the day.’’ is a more fundamental question: With Democrats have agreed to engage in ation over the next decade. That date cluding Mr. Manchin, and Senator An- should last. Democrats want the across- Republicans accused Democrats of ac- polls showing that Republicans are car- formal budget negotiations — where, was already a concession. Ms. Collins, gus King, an independent from Maine the-board cuts known as sequestration cepting nothing short of capitulation rying the brunt of the blame for the they acknowledge, Republicans may along with Senators Kelly Ayotte of who caucuses with the Democrats. to last only through mid-November; Re- without offering anything in return. shutdown, can Democrats demand total have the upper hand once the govern- New Hampshire and Lisa Murkowski of ‘‘The Democratic leadership is publicans want them to last as long as ‘‘The Democrats keep moving the goal surrender, or should they offer conces- ment is reopened and the threat of de- Alaska, both Republicans, initially clearly very strong and has a lot of sway possible. posts,’’ said Senator Susan Collins of sions to complete the deal? fault is lifted. Both sides say they want a wanted to finance the government for over its members,’’ Ms. Collins said. Iran to make offer at nuclear talks

TEHRAN and close its underground enrichment bunker in Fordo. Hard-liners in and out of Parliament Officials intend to portray have vowed in recent days that those program as peaceful at steps will never happen. But Iran’s political establishment seems deter- negotiations in Geneva mined to resolve the nuclear issue as long as there are ‘‘positive signs’’ from BY THOMAS ERDBRINK the West, insiders close to Mr. Rou- hani’s government say. Iranian nuclear negotiators will offer a Iran’s goal is to get the West to accept new proposal Tuesday that is intended what its officials say are facts on the to convince world powers that the coun- ground, and agree that Iran can go on try’s nuclear program has only peaceful enriching uranium. Since 2002, when an aims, a top official has said. exile group exposed the existence of the The announcement came on Sunday program, Iran has managed, despite from Abbas Araghchi, the deputy for- sanctions and pressures, to expand its eign minister and one of Iran’s negotia- fleet of enrichment centrifuges from a tors in the nuclear talks that were set to dozen to nearly 17,000. And its stockpile begin Tuesday in Geneva. Mr. Araghchi of uranium enriched to the lower level told the Iranian news media that his could be used to power Iran’s sole semi- team would present a three-step plan operating nuclear reactor for several that would secure the independence of years to come. Iran’s civilian nuclear program while ‘‘Iran will be a winner when we con- giving assurances that the country is tinue with our peaceful nuclear plans,’’ not trying to assemble atomic weapons. Mr. Araghchi said. ‘‘The other side will ‘‘We need to move towards a trust- be a winner when they are sure Iran is building road map with the Western- not after any military or nuclear ers,’’ Mr. Araghchi told the Islamic Stu- weapons plans.’’ dent News Agency in an interview. ‘‘To Analysts say that Iran needs, in turn, them, trust-building means taking some to be sure of the West’s good faith. steps in the nuclear case, and for us this ‘‘Clearly, everything stands and falls happens when sanctions are lifted.’’ with this,’’ said Mohammad Ali Shabani, Iran’s new president, Hassan Rou- an analyst based in Tehran who is well hani, has promised Iranians that he will informed on the talks. ‘‘Iran is ready to end the 10-year standoff with the West take important steps, but for them to ac- over the nuclear program. The sanc- cept those, they will need to see some JIM HOLLANDER/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY tions have seriously impeded Iran’s abil- sort of endgame in which they will be An Israeli soldier walking out of a tunnel leading from Gaza into Israel. The military, which has found two other such passages this year, fears that Hamas could use them to stage raids. ity to sell oil and have cut the country off sure their rights are accepted.’’ from the international banking system. By an endgame, Iran means that it Mr. Araghchi did not discuss details of wants a timetable of specific steps Iran the new plan. Foreign Minister Mo- would take to make its nuclear activities hammad Javad Zarif posted a message more transparent, which would ulti- on his personal Twitter account Friday mately lead to the West accepting that Tunnel from Gaza discovered in Israel saying that new proposals from his Iran has an independent civilian nucle- country would be presented in Geneva ar energy program, and the lifting of JERUSALEM als approved by Israel for civilian pur- cabinet meeting on Sunday. ‘‘This is ers is more important than tunnels dug in on Tuesday and not before. sanctions. poses to build tunnels like the one part of our policy — an aggressive the mud,’’ said a spokesman for Hamas’s Among the West’s concerns that Iran ‘‘We now have a new negotiating discovered recently. Officials said Israel policy against terrorism, including pre- military wing who goes by the nom de seems prepared to address in Geneva team in place, which means business Military suspends flow would continue to allow the transfer of ventive action, intelligence, initiated ac- guerre Abu Obaida. ‘‘Out of the first, you are the country’s growing stockpile of and has the full authority to come to an of construction materials, construction materials for projects over- tion, responsive action and, of course, can make thousands of the second.’’ uranium that has been enriched to 20 agreement,’’ said Hamidreza Taraghi, a seen by international organizations. Operation Pillar of Defense,’’ Mr. Net- In the past month, Palestinians killed percent, which is only a few technical conservative analyst who has the offi- citing use by militants Military officials said the tunnel, dis- anyahu said, referring to a military of- two Israeli soldiers in the West Bank, steps away from being suitable for cial task of interpreting the speeches covered last week, was about 1.6 kilome- fensive in Gaza in November 2012 that and a 9-year-old girl was lightly building weapons. and views of the country’s supreme BY ISABEL KERSHNER ters, or a mile, long and at a depth of Israel said was aimed at halting rocket wounded in a shooting in a West Bank Iranian officials have suggested that leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. ‘‘We about 18 meters, or 60 feet. They added fire against southern Israel. settlement. On Friday, an Israeli man the stockpile could be diluted to a lower will continue to enrich, but we can talk The Israeli military has announced that that it had probably been constructed As a result of these measures, he said, was bludgeoned to death in an isolated level or be used to make relatively about the level of enrichment; we will it discovered a tunnel leading from Ga- more than a year ago. It was the third Israel has enjoyed its quietest year in area of the West Bank’s Jordan Valley. harmless fuel cells for a research reac- continue to have our stockpile, but can za into Israel that it said could have such tunnel found this year, they said. more than a decade, although he also The Shin Bet security agency said tor in Tehran. discuss the size of that stockpile.’’ been used for an attack against Israeli The mouth of the tunnel is near Ein pointed to what he said was a rise in ter- Sunday that with the help of the military ‘‘Of course we will negotiate regard- Mr. Shabani said he believed Iran soldiers or civilians. Hashlosha, an Israeli communal farm rorist actions in recent weeks. and the police, it had arrested three Pal- ing the form, amount and various levels would be ready to agree to sign a legal In response to the discovery, the mili- near the Gaza border. In 2006, Hamas Hamas has largely observed a cease- estinians from the Hebron area on sus- of enrichment,’’ Mr. Araghchi said on framework called the Additional Pro- tary said Sunday that it had suspended and other militants used a smuggling fire with Israel, brokered by Egypt, that picion of involvement in that killing. It state television Tuesday. But he seemed tocol, which gives the inspectors of the the flow of building materials to the tunnel for a cross-border raid in which ended the fighting in November. said that two of the suspects, one 18 and to dismiss a proposal raised by the West International Atomic Energy Agency private sector in Gaza, a Palestinian they killed two Israeli soldiers and seized But the discovery of the tunnel east of the other 21, had confessed to carrying in earlier talks that some of Iran’s nucle- wider scope to inspect sites, collect coastal enclave. a third, Gilad Shalit, who was whisked in- Gaza was portrayed locally by Hamas out the killing and that it was investigat- ar material be sent abroad for repro- samples and interview scientists. Maj. Gen. Sami Turgeman, Israel’s to Gaza and held for five years before be- as evidence that it had not dropped ing whether it was an act of terrorism or cessing. ‘‘The shipping of materials out ‘‘Fully accepting the Additional Pro- Southern Command chief, said the ing released in a prisoner exchange. armed resistance and that it continued a criminal attack. of the country is our red line,’’ he said. tocol would be a huge move by Iran,’’Mr. freeze was ordered because Hamas, the Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to prepare to fight against Israel. Western officials also want Iran to Shabani said. ‘‘I’m expecting this will be Islamic militant group that controls Ga- of Israel praised the security forces in ‘‘The determination that rests in the Fares Akram contributed reporting stop enriching uranium up to 20 percent among the issues raised in Geneva.’’ za, had been using construction materi- remarks at the beginning of a weekly minds and hearts of the resistance fight- from Gaza.

Syrian rebels urged to cooperate on arms U.S. citizen found dead in Egyptian cell

LONDON trying to dismantle chemical weapons fa- manitarian assistance, the inspectors CAIRO former inmates say beatings, crowding arrested Aug. 27 during a security cilities as the war rages around them. face a complicated and uncertain pro- and unsanitary conditions are common. sweep after a car bomb attack on a po- BY ALAN COWELL Some roads ‘‘change hands from one cess which requires cease-fires with mul- BY BEN HUBBARD Last month, a French citizen arrested lice station. AND ANNE BARNARD day to another, which is why we appeal tiple parties among fluid lines of combat. AND MAYY EL SHEIKH on a charge of violating an army curfew The statement said that Mr. Lunn had to all sides in Syria to support this mis- The International Committee of the died while in custody; Egyptian officials been in the area of the attack and was Pressure mounted on Syrian rebels on sion, to be cooperative and not render Red Cross, for instance, said Monday A U.S. citizen who had been detained by said he was beaten to death by his fellow found with ‘‘a computer and maps of im- Monday to permit access to chemical this mission more difficult,’’ Mr. Uzum- that four of seven aid workers abducted the Egyptian authorities for more than inmates. And last week, Egypt released portant facilities.’’ He was detained for weapons sites in areas under their con- cu said. ‘‘It’s already challenging.’’ in northern Syria on Sunday — three of six weeks has been found dead in a po- a doctor and a filmmaker from Canada, investigation and transferred to Ismai- trol, as the head of the international A Western diplomat in the Arab world, its staffers and a volunteer from the Syr- lice station in what some U.S. officials Tarek Loubani and John Greyson, who lia. A U.S. consular official visited him watchdog on such toxic munitions said moreover, said that while the Syrian ian Arab Red Crescent — had been re- said appeared to be a suicide. had been held without charge for nearly there last week, the statement said, and the rapidly shifting lines in the civil war government was legally responsible for leased. There was no word on the other Egyptian officials gave more detail, two months after being detained at an on Saturday, Mr. Lunn’s detention was made it difficult for inspectors to reach dismantling its chemical weapons, its three abducted Red Cross personnel. saying that the American, James Lunn, antigovernment demonstration. renewed for 30 more days. some locations. opponents should cooperate in the pro- The inspectors began arriving in Syr- had hanged himself at the station in the It was unclear what Mr. Lunn was do- A spokesman for the ministry, Gen. Ahmet Uzumcu, director general of cess, as several chemical weapons sites ia on Oct. 1 under an agreement Suez Canal city of Ismailia after being ing in the northern Sinai Peninsula at the Hany Abdel Lateef, said in a phone call the Organization for the Prohibition of were close to confrontation lines or brokered by the United States and Rus- detained during a security sweep in the time of his arrest. The area, long resist- Sunday that Mr. Lunn had admitted Chemical Weapons, which won the No- within rebel-held territory. ‘‘The inter- sia for Syria to dismantle its chemical northern Sinai Peninsula in late August. ant to the central government in Cairo, during questioning that he had been on bel Peace Prize last Friday, told the BBC national community also expects full co- weapons capability after a poison gas Egypt’s prosecutor general said in a has become a hotbed of armed militancy his way to the Gaza Strip, where he that the government of President operation from the opposition,’’ the dip- attack on Aug. 21 in a suburb of Damas- statement that Mr. Lunn was found on in recent years, with deadly attacks on planned to meet with members of Bashar al-Assad had been cooperating lomat said, speaking on condition of cus. Mr. Assad has denied accusations Sunday hanging from a bathroom door police stations and other security infra- Hamas, the militant Palestinian group with inspectors who had reached 5 out of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue. from the United States that Syrian gov- by his leather belt and shoelaces, with structure increasingly common since that rules the territory. 20 chemical weapons production sites. The inspection team has not publicly ernment forces were responsible for the blood running from his nose. The death the military ousted the Islamist presi- ‘‘He confessed that he was on his way But some other sites had ‘‘access prob- cited any specific instance of opposition attack, which killed hundreds of people. of Mr. Lunn could raise further concerns dent, Mohamed Morsi, on July 3. to Gaza to stay with Hamas and discuss lems,’’ he said, reflecting the perils and fighters impeding access to chemical about the safety of foreign citizens held A statement from Egypt’s Interior certain things with them,’’ General Ab- complexities facing inspectors who are weapons sites. As with deliveries of hu- Anne Barnard reported from Beirut. in Egypt’s jails, where rights groups and Ministry said that Mr. Lunn had been del Lateef said. .. INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | 11 Style Ralph Lauren’s new Parisian dream

PARIS 1964, when he and his wife, Ricky, were just married. Later in this emotionally charged day, American designer helps with his entire family around him, the France’s classic art school designer, dressed in a classic tuxedo, opened an area among the school’s embrace the 21st century sprawling buildings for the first Ralph Lauren show in Paris. He offered his au- BY SUZY MENKES tumn 2013 collection — with a touch of the family’s Russian history in its rich Ralph Lauren tipped back his head, gaz- embellishment and Cossack hats — to ing up to the cupola of gold-painted the cream of French society, from Prin- wooden squares above a semicircular cess Charlene of Monaco to Catherine mural of artists from throughout his- Deneuve, and Charlotte Gainsbourg tory. singing for entertainment. ‘‘My father was a painter,’’ said Mr. In a meeting of minds with his son, Lauren, dressed in his signature leather David, executive vice president of the jacket, fraying jeans and cowboy boots. company, Mr. Lauren’s restoration of the ‘‘He painted houses when he was strug- amphitheater will not be limited to the gling with four children. He came from surroundings of the historic frieze of 75 Russia, learned the craft and did murals artists painted by Paul Delaroche from on ceilings. 1836 to 1841, but will try to make the little- ‘‘I used to see him on a ladder that used area come alive in the digital age. high,’’ continued the designer, pointing ‘‘The amphitheater has always been to the distant ceiling. ‘‘He would be central to the heartbeat of this institu- standing up there and I would say, ‘Omi- tion, and all the great artists and god!’’’ thinkers came together to discuss One of America’s most famous de- ideas,’’ David Lauren said. ‘‘Our goal is signers finds an emotional connection to figure out how this is going to be part to stir his philanthropic instincts. Here, of the 2000s. By wiring this place, you in the Amphithéâtre d’honneur at the will be able to share these ideas globally, heart of the École Nationale Supérieure whether you are in China or the United des Beaux-Arts, which Mr. Lauren has States, wherever you are in the world, committed to restore, he thinks back you will be able to hear great ideas across half a century. about the arts and culture.’’ The designer, 73, recalls carrying Nicolas Bourriaud, director of the paint pots for his dad, who decorated school, oversees both its complex artist- with marble-like swirls and simulated ic program and its buildings. That in- wood grain the walls of Mr. Lauren’s cludes the entrance courtyard, where first apartment. It was in the Bronx in students on their lunch break sit be- neath classical statues. Mr. Bourriaud described the school’s buildings themselves as a kind of encyc- PHOTOGRAPHS BY STÉPHANE LAVOUÉ FOR THE INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES lopedia, referring to the artists’ names, from Dürer and Van Dyck to Holbein Top, a sculpture at and Rembrandt, carved in red stone in ‘‘I don’t like the word the entrance of the the glass-roofed central court. ‘philanthropy.’’’ Amphithéâtre The amphitheater’s frieze, known as d’honneur at the the Hémicycle, carries the same mes- the Pink Pony line of products sold to École Nationale Su- sage of heritage, but with the artists benefit cancer-fighting organizations. shown grouped around the creators of Mr. Lauren’s deep feeling for the périeure des the Parthenon, who are wrapped in mythical American dream led him in Beaux-Arts. Above, white robes. The work was painted in a 1999 to finance the restoration of the flag the amphitheater period when the classics were part of a that inspired the national anthem, ‘‘The and Delaroche’s general education. Star-Spangled Banner,’’ and is dis- frieze. Left, the Mr. Lauren famously started his ca- played at the Smithsonian Museum in school’s courtyard. reer not in art school, but by selling Washington. neckties, with his personal dreams And it is his enthusiasm for Paris — dashed by his boss telling him that ‘‘the which he expressed in an early visit by world is not ready for Ralph Lauren.’’ kissing the Arc de Triomphe — that has ‘‘I often wonder what it would have encouraged the current Beaux-Arts been like for me in an art school,’’the de- project. The initiative follows in 2010 the signer said. ‘‘I probably never would restoration of a 19th-century hôtel par- have got in. I have looked at my own col- ticulier on the Boulevard Saint-Ger- lection — the whole 45 years — to see main that became the brand’s Paris what I didn’t do, what I missed. I con- store. Mr. Lauren received the Legion sider that as a form of art, a form of ex- d’honneur the same year from then- pression that was mine. There is a vi- President Nicolas Sarkozy. sion; there is a story; there is a dream After that building had revealed its home to earnest existentialists. come here, spend time here and learn.’’ and an emotion.’’ cellar of historical artifacts and bones, it But here in the rambling art school, Ralph Lauren, who spent his brief time Emotion is a key word in the Ralph became the brand’s European flagship Mr. Lauren has found his spiritual home. on this Paris trip visiting the Braque ex- Lauren lexicon. When a brain tumor store, with a restaurant that provided ‘‘When we toured the Beaux-Arts hibition at the Grand Palais and the Alaïa sent him to the hospital in 1987 and he beef from the United States for the months ago,’’ David Lauren said, ‘‘we exhibit at the Palais Galliera, said that he encountered an editor suffering from Beaux-Arts gala dinner last week. watched the students painting and to see did not want to be lauded for his contri- DMITRY KOSTYUKOV FOR THE INYT CARTER BERG, COURTESY OF RALPH LAUREN cancer, he remembered his own terror Mr. Lauren’s love for Paris’s Left them in these amazing locations, sitting bution to the Beaux-Arts. David Lauren, executive vice president of Ralph Lauren at when his mother had an apparent Bank is based, like so many of his on the ground with their charcoal, their ‘‘I have never thought that the things the Ralph Lauren company. the Beaux-Arts health problem. The result was the cre- dreams, on a world that no longer ex- pencils and their sketching — we were I am going to do will be made public,’’ he amphitheater. ation of ‘‘Fashion Targets Breast Can- ists. Today, there are more likely to be blown away. I think my father felt that said. ‘‘And I don’t like the word ‘philan- ONLINE: AN AMERICAN IN PARIS cer,’’ an effort supported by the entire luxury stores and international tourists this was the dream for an artist and what thropy,’ because it separates me from Suzy Menkes on the Ralph Lauren gift to fashion industry; a cancer center in than intellectual cafes filled by artists an opportunity it would be to some day the emotion of how and why I did the Beaux-Arts school and the fashion New York’s Harlem neighborhood; and with flat berets or smoky dives that are allow people from around the world to things.’’ house’s gala celebration. inyt.com/style .. 12 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES style

The coats of many colors

BY SUZY MENKES The color was dawn pink — that pastel shade that streaks a pale blue sky be- fore the sun burns bright. There was a collective sigh of joy, fol- lowed by a frenzy of desire, when Phoebe Philo sent a pretty pink coat out on her autumn runway for Céline. Women who always considered black the only appropriate color for winter in the city suddenly reconsidered the con- tents of their closets. Now, whether it is to ward off the first chill or for an icy blast of air condition- ing, the coat, offered in the colors you would find in a box of macarons, has be- come the must-have item of the new season. Perhaps the pace was set by the Duchess of Cambridge when her pre- baby bulge was hidden under a tailored coat by Alexander McQueen — in sugar pink, of course. It is the first time in at least a decade that the coat has seemed more desirable than a jacket and that pretty, powdery colors are making an appearance. The rainbow coalition includes a wide spectrum of colored coats, none of them dark and wintry, although there may be an insert of coral or turquoise. Even light mustard and asparagus green are on offer — the colors almost always al- lied to nature. Miuccia Prada probably made the A highlight of the most girly fashion statement with a pink autumn 2013 collec- and white gingham-check coat, belted tions was the at the waist. pretty-in-pink coat But other designers also looked for ways to give a touch of sweetness. The at Céline, far right, pretty look comes not only from color, by Phoebe Philo. but also from a new passion for decora- Following in the tion: Burberry’s hearts scattered over a trend of colorful tailored coat, or the fluff of feathers and coats: Dries Van silken tassels from Dries Van Noten. Noten, above, and Although some coats — especially at Prada, by Miuccia Christian Dior — are shaped to the body line, a more frequent style is the fitted Prada, right. coat just loosely tracing the silhouette. The look sometimes has a tinge of the ladylike 1950s, when the coat is curved at the back or when it morphs into a body-conscious cape. The point about this between-seasons coat is that it is made to be worn like a jacket, over a slim skirt and blouse with Clockwise, from a squishy bag tucked under one arm. left, Chanel, by Prim? It might be, if the colors were Karl Lagerfeld; not so gentle and alluring. Instead, the Jonathan Saun- new fashion for tailoring has all the dy- ders; Burberry namism of a masculine cut and the fem- ininity of its pastel tone: the best of both Prorsum, by worlds. Christopher Bailey, and ONLINE: COATS OF MANY COLORS Carven, by Guil- For photographs of more autumn 2013 laume Henry. CATWALKING outerwear global.nytimes.com/style ... INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | 13 Culture music books

STEPHAN VANFLETEREN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

A REALIST Paul Van Haver’s most recent album, ‘‘Racine Carrée’’ (Square Root), has sold nearly 400,000 copies in France Disillusion, with a dance beat since its release in late August. charts in 19 countries. musicians to so directly evoke Europe’s sels; she placed limits on time in front of gentleman with those of the electronic and has been the highest-selling album The Profile Still Mr. Van Haver has no desire to be ambient moroseness, and he does so the television, and sent him to a Jesuit underground and the African bush. there for several weeks. Stromae a ‘‘salesman of the crisis,’’ he said in an with an eclecticism that has earned him school after he failed out of the public (There are plans for a Made in Europe Mothers, daughters, teenagers, grand- interview here, and his music is by no critical praise. system at 16. She insisted that he play boutique clothing line, Mr. Van Haver parents and business executives stop means intended to intensify European ‘‘Stromae is an antenna,’’ the French an instrument; he chose the drums. said; the fabrics will be designed and him on the street in Belgium. He smiles a pessimism, although he has at least paper Le Monde suggested in August. His father, a Rwandan architect, who printed in Belgium, the shirts sewn in bit shyly and signs autographs; he wor- Belgian pop star’s music once called his genre ‘‘suicide dance.’’ ‘‘He pulls in signals — the crisis, AIDS, was absent throughout his childhood, Portugal and socks produced in France.) ries he will lose his humility, he said. He echoes Europe’s pessimism ‘‘It’s just a desire to be realist,’’ the the environment, misogyny, Twitter, was killed in the Rwandan genocide in In the video for ‘‘Formidable’’ — in is touched by the success, but does not al- soft-spoken Mr. Van Haver said. ‘‘And false richness — from his Brussels con- 1994. Mr. Van Haver said he met him which Mr. Van Haver stumbles about a ways know what to make of it. He vacil- BY SCOTT SAYARE it’s not about saying that everything’s trol tower.’’ His music draws on per- only a dozen times. Brussels tram stop, as if heavily intoxic- lates, he said, between conviction, cyn- going badly, because that’s not what I cussive 1990s electronica, rap and hip- ‘‘I was raised in Brussels as a Bel- ated after a rough night, while hidden icism and existential ambivalence. say in my songs. But it’s not about say- hop, Congolese rumba, salsa and the gian,’’he said, ‘‘but at the same time feel- cameras film the reactions of onlookers Stromae, his persona, is a project BRUSSELS Paul Van Haver is a musi- ing everything’s fine, either. It’s life.’’ chanson française genre. The name ing that I wasn’t necessarily from here.’’ — his physicality seems to match the that’s ‘‘useless,’’ he said, ‘‘but into which cian for his time, with the charts, head- The music is often playful but almost With beige skin and gray-green eyes cultural moment here as well, said Jean- we’re putting an enormous amount of lines and YouTube clicks to prove it — a always cut through with a darker strain, ‘‘He carries in him this he could be Arab, or Tuareg, or any Daniel Beauvallet, the London-based energy, an enormous amount of money, gravel-voiced, mixed-race performer a reflection of the disillusionment and sort of weight, this sort number of mixes. He has the unimpos- music editor of Les Inrockuptibles, a an enormous amount of time. That’s the whose melancholic French-language restlessness that have supplanted the ing physique of a high jumper, with French culture magazine. truth. And we have the good fortune to be dance pop has channeled, to popular ac- self-assurance of an earlier generation of dissatisfaction.’’ hunched shoulders and a marionette’s ‘‘He carries in him this sort of weight, able to make a living out of it.’’ claim, the gray that currently hangs in Europe. In one of his most popular jumbly long limbs. He is vaguely andro- this sort of dissatisfaction,’’Mr. Beauval- Most of the pop music that has come over Europe. songs of the moment, ‘‘Formidable,’’ an gynous and appears as half-man-half- let said. The official ‘‘Formidable’’ video out of Europe in the past five years has Mr. Van Haver, 28, who is best known angry account of a breakup, he rakes his Stromae is itself a rearranging of woman in one recent music video. has been watched on YouTube more been escapist and ‘‘unreal,’’ Mr. as his stage persona Stromae, rose to ‘‘r’s’’ from the back of his throat to the ‘‘maestro’’ in verlan, the French slang. His image is part of his intrigue and than 32 million times. The song has also Beauvallet said, ‘‘music for forgetting.’’ fame with a beat-heavy 2009 single tip of his tongue in the style of Jacques ‘‘Stromae fits this era made of inter- appeal, and he and a small team of styl- been No. 1 on the music charts in Flem- That is not the case for Stromae, he said, called ‘‘Alors On Danse’’ (So We Dance) Brel, to whom he is often compared. mixings and the Internet,’’ Le Nouvel ists manage it painstakingly. On stage, in ish and French Belgium and in France, whose dance music is ‘‘much more com- that is still played at parties and clubs ‘‘Papaoutai,’’ another hit, is ostensibly a Observateur, a French news magazine, music videos and on the myriad and ‘‘Papaoutai’’ has topped charts in plex than people think.’’ across the Continent. It is a mournful child’s plea to understand his father’s said this summer. magazine covers to which he has lent his Belgium, France, Germany, Israel, the The contradictions in Mr. Van Haver’s anthem that evokes unemployment, di- absence and in ‘‘Avf’’ he sings sar- Mr. Van Haver is a somewhat ambigu- image, he appears as a fluorescent Netherlands and Switzerland. His most image and sound produce an ambiguity vorce, debt, the financial crisis and a castically: ‘‘Rich and unhappy, but ous mix of identities and influences. His dandy, in bowties and color-burst polo recent album, ‘‘Racine Carrée’’ (Square that resonates in Europe, Mr. Beauval- sort of resigned hope ‘‘to forget all our thankfully we’ve got the euro.’’ mother, a Flemish Belgian, raised him shirts and high socks that blend the sar- Root), has sold nearly 400,000 copies in let added. ‘‘One never knows which foot problems’’; it reached No.1 on the He is one of the few contemporary in French in a poor suburb outside Brus- torial sensibilities of an English country France since its release in late August, to dance on with Stromae,’’ he said. The devil that never dies: The rise and threat of global anti-Semitism

The Devil That Never Dies. The Rise and an opinion of breathtaking vituperation. BOOK REVIEW found on the Internet, where Mr. Gold- started all wars.’’ And so on. Threat of Global Antisemitism. By Daniel ‘‘Throughout history,’’ he said, ‘‘Allah hagen appears to have done much of his That last item is aimed not only at the Jonah Goldhagen. Illustrated. 485 pages. has imposed upon the Jews people who research, but there is real utility to his actor Mel Gibson, but at Stephen Walt Little, Brown & Company. $30. would punish them for their corruption. heard, in the pre-Internet, pre-satellite- efforts — comprehensive catalogs of and John J. Mearsheimer, authors of The last punishment was carried out by television age, by pockets of extremist hate possess a kind of depressing power. ‘‘The Israel Lobby,’’ which Mr. Goldha- BY JEFFREY GOLDBERG Hitler. By means of all the things he did followers in marginal places — now has Mr. Goldhagen does other useful gen describes as the ‘‘best cloaked ma- to them — even though they exagger- a worldwide audience. things. He makes a strong case that jor anti-Semitic tract in English of the In ‘‘The Devil That Never Dies,’’ Daniel ated this issue — he managed to put The third troubling aspect of Mr. anti-Semitism is a unique prejudice, in last several decades.’’ Jonah Goldhagen reports that there has them in their place. This was divine Qaradawi’s comment is that it did not re- its staying power, in its ability to shape- One of Mr. Goldhagen’s strongest ar- been a worldwide rise in lethal anti- punishment for them. Allah willing, the sult in his removal from Al Jazeera. Nor shift, in the unlikely coalitions that guments has to do with selective outrage Semitism. If he had to pick a role model next time will be at the hand of the be- did it seem to diminish his influence. The spring up to advance its message (left- as a leading indicator of anti-Semitism. for the new generation of Jew-haters, lievers,’’ which is to say, Muslims. most effective and disturbing argument PEDRO UGARTE/AFP leaning Western gay activists aligning He does not try to argue that criticism of he might settle on an elderly Sunni cler- Mr. Qaradawi, in his sermon, pays lip Mr. Goldhagen musters in this new book Yusuf al-Qaradawi, a Sunni cleric who has with gay-persecuting Muslim funda- Israeli government policies is necessari- ic named Yusuf al-Qaradawi. service to the ideology of denial, but his is that the resurgence of rhetorically and a popular show on Al Jazeera. mentalists, say). Anti-Semitism is also ly anti-Semitic. But he has appropriate Mr. Qaradawi, who is based in Qatar, pathological hatred of Jews moves into sometimes physically violent anti- rare in its ability to make otherwise contempt for those who argue that Israel is an important spiritual adviser to the territory well past the borders of Ah- Semitism over the past dozen years or smart people believe fantastical and is a reincarnation of Nazi Germany, and Muslim Brotherhood, but his fame and madinejad-style anti-Semitism. En- so is shocking in part because it does not his muscles again, and stalks the world, idiotic things. he is appalled by the hypocrisy of the in- influence derive in large part from his dorsing the Holocaust puts a person in seem to shock. Horrific accusations with ever more confidence, power and ‘‘The calumnies against Jews have ternational community, which judges Is- popular show on Al Jazeera, the satel- a whole different moral category. leveled against Jews across the Middle followers,’’ Mr. Goldhagen writes. ‘‘The been the most damaging kind,’’ Mr. rael by a separate, and higher, standard lite television channel owned by the rul- Three aspects of Mr. Qaradawi’s pro- East and in Europe fail to excite the an- devil is not a he but an it. The devil is Goldhagen writes. ‘‘Jews have killed than it does other countries. ing family of Qatar. Al Jazeera has glob- Hitler commentary are noteworthy. ger or disbelief of the non-Jewish anti-Semitism.’’ God’s son. All Jews, and their descen- al reach: bureaus in many world capit- The first is that he is Muslim and from masses and non-Jewish elites alike. Yes, we got that. As a general rule, dants for all time, ... are guilty. ... Jews Jeffrey Goldberg is a columnist for als and an American cable news net- the Middle East. Christian Europe, and This is a fine point to make. Unfortu- heavy breathing is unnecessary, and desecrate God’s body, the host. Jews Bloomberg View, a national correspon- work. Mr. Qaradawi, the host of ‘‘Islam- not the Middle East, has been the his- nately, Mr. Goldhagen undermines him- even counterproductive, when a parented the Antichrist. ... Jews sought dent for The Atlantic and the author of ic Law and Life,’’ has been the net- toric breeding ground for what Mr. self by, among other things, allowing writer’s subject is atrocity, and much of to slay God’s prophet Muhammad. ‘‘Prisoners: A Story of Friendship and work’s most famous on-air personality. Goldhagen, in his earlier, landmark his anger to get the best of him. ‘‘The Mr. Goldhagen’s book is a compilation of Jews are the enemies of Allah. Jews kill Terror.’’ He is anti-American, sometimes bit- book, ‘‘Hitler’s Willing Executioners,’’ Devil That Never Dies’’ is written in a atrociousness: seemingly endless pas- Christian children and use their blood terly so, but his anti-Israelism takes on labeled ‘‘eliminationist anti-Semitism.’’ hyperventilating style, starting with its sages recount the awful things said for their rituals. Jews kill Muslim chil- ONLINE: BOOK REVIEW PODCAST extreme coloration. In 2009, in a sermon The second is that Mr. Qaradawi — title. ‘‘The devil, after a period of rela- about Jews over the past several years. dren. Jews wreak financial havoc in the Listen to a discussion about the latest broadcast by Al Jazeera, he expressed whose vile opinions would have been tive quiescence, has reappeared, flexes Most of these statements are easily countries in which they live. Jews have best sellers. global.nytimes.com/books ... 14 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES world news

A Gypsy wedding in Chudovo, whose roads are built of dirt and houses of scrap lumber. Aleksandr Chertkov, a longtime Russian truck driver, doing repairs. He feels envious A river near Vishnii Volochek is used for washing clothes. Residents in rural Russia A woman at the ceremony said: ‘‘We have no gas, we have no water. We have nothing.’’ when he drives through Belarus, where the police are too afraid to ask for bribes. struggle with many choices and problems that belong to past centuries. Between 2 cities, a Russia left behind RUSSIA, FROM PAGE 1 temperatures far below freezing. Valery ‘‘muzhik.’’ He had something he wanted Voitko, who heads a trade union of long- to pass on to Mr. Putin, who has led Rus- haul truck drivers, described his drivers sia during 13 years of political stability that week as ‘‘not even angry anymore, and economic expansion. but in a state of dumb despair, that year ‘‘The people on the top do not know in and year out the same thing happens.’’ what is happening down here,’’ he said. It is not that the Russian Federation ‘‘They have their own world. They eat cannot manage public works projects — differently, they sleep on different next year’s Olympic Games are expect- sheets, they drive different cars. They ed to cost $50 billion, about three and a don’t know what is going on here. If I half times the cost of last year’s Summer needed one word to describe it, I would Games in London. Gazprom, the Russian say it is a swamp, a stagnant swamp. As natural gas giant, recently spearheaded it was, so it is. Nothing is changing.’’ construction of the world’s longest un- Driving the highway, the M10, today, dersea pipeline, a feat of engineering. one finds beauty and decay. There are So why is this highway so antiquated? places where wild boars roam aban- A new toll road, the M11, will not be fully doned villages, gorging themselves on open until 2018, at which point Mr. Putin the fruit of orchards planted by men. will have been in charge for 18 years. There are spots on this highway Asked about the M10 during an inter- where it seems time has stopped. A view last year, Mr. Putin’s press secre- former prison guard is spending his sav- tary, Dmitri S. Peskov, answered by tra- ings building wooden roadside chapels, cing, in order of urgency, the challenges explaining that ‘‘many souls’’ weigh on that Mr. Putin faced in his first and his conscience. A rescue worker from second presidential terms. the nuclear meltdown at Chernobyl is He brought Russia’s oligarchs to heel. waiting, 27 years later, for the apart- He reclaimed authority over the securi- ment the Soviets promised him as a re- ty services. He eliminated the popular ward. Women sit on the shoulder, selling election of governors. He wrested tele- tea to travelers from a row of samovars. vision back from private hands. He Above them, pillars of steam vanish into raised pensions and paid off Russia’s the sky, just as they did in 1746, the year foreign debt. By the time Mr. Peskov construction on the road began. mentioned the staggering decline of Brezhnev-era infrastructure, his expla- A WEDDING FOR A 14-YEAR-OLD nation had gone on for 28 sentences. A furor had erupted off a side street in ‘‘Certainly,’’ he concluded, ‘‘in these Chudovo, where the road was dirt and circumstances it was impossible to the houses were built of scrap lumber. A think about a road between Moscow and wedding was under way. St. Petersburg.’’ The bride was Mariuka, a Gypsy girl of 14. Her eyes and skin had the same THE CHURCH IN PUTIN’S BACKYARD honey-gold cast, and she was a head Midway through our journey, five taller than most of the men in the vil- golden domes came into view. lage. At some point in the last year it had Set on an island in a mirrorlike lake become clear that she was on the verge outside the city of Valdai was evidence, of becoming an unusual, startling the first we had seen, that someone had PHOTOGRAPHS BY DMITRY KOSTYUKOV FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES beauty, and this, a guest whispered, was cared a great deal about fixing some- Vladimir Kolesnikov with his wife, Nina, and their sons in Pochinok, where they find wilderness slowly closing in on them even though they are only eight kilometers from the highway. the reason her family had sped up the thing. The 17th-century Iversky Monas- wedding. So that, as he put it, ‘‘she tery, used by the Soviets to house tuber- would not start messing around.’’ culosis patients, has undergone a swift forest. The Soviets cut off support for edging quietly toward collapse. heels on the highway’s shoulder as 18- She looked like a neighborhood teen- and lustrous renovation, financed by a FINLAND them during efficiency drives in the There is a reason for this: Compared wheelers blow past. It is known, equally, ager hired to baby-sit the groom, phalanx of state-connected companies 1960s and ’70s, which categorized vil- with populist steps like raising salaries for televised police raids on prostitution Ryoma, who was 13. It was unclear how like Sberbank, Gazprom and Russian lages as ‘‘promising’’ or ‘‘unpromising.’’ and pensions, spending on infrastruc- — footage showing uniformed officers they had produced a bloody sheet, bran- Railways. Its lawns are velvety, its tower ESTONIAA But the death of a village is a slow pro- ture does little to shore up Mr. Putin’s chasing women into birch groves, then dished traditionally at Gypsy weddings the colors of roses and clotted cream. cess. A geographer, Tatiana Nefyodova, popularity, said Natalya Zubarevich, a shoving them out shamefaced to an- to certify that her hymen had been On a recent afternoon, a tour guide St.. Petersburg calls them ‘‘black holes,’’ and she esti- sociologist at Moscow’s Independent swer a cameraman’s questions. broken. (‘‘You can break it with your shared the secret of the monastery’s re- mates that they make up 70 to 80 per- Institute of Social Policy. If something Mr. Chertkov rolled his eyes at this hands,’’ said his mother, Luisa Mikhai, a birth: Mr. Putin has a vacation home cent of Russia’s northwest, where Mos- goes wrong, the Kremlin can always fire ritual: A few days pass, and the same Lyuban kind-faced woman.) next door. cow and St. Petersburg act as giant a regional official. women are out on the road again. They The past was tugging on all of them. ‘‘Across the river there is his resi- Chudovo vacuum cleaners, sucking people and Just ask Gen. Yevgeny I. Ignatov, a are a sight as permanent as the row of Before the Soviet Union collapsed, the dence, so it is within his line of sight,’’ Veliky Novgorodrodod capital from the rest of the country. former mayor of Torzhok, who stepped samovars selling tea to truck drivers. Education Ministry insisted that all chil- said the tour guide, Nadezhda Yakov- Those left behind are thrust into ever down two years ago after a dressing- You could almost forget that, in Russia, dren attend school, but not now. Forty leva. Ms. Yakovleva boasted that he vis- M10 deeper isolation. Ms. Kolesnikova’s down from the regional governor. Two prostitution is illegal. The road will kill percent of the children here do not study its frequently and spontaneously, taking Proposed M11 Valdai family bathes once a month now in bad years later, sitting in his neat, well- your illusions that way. at all, said Stephania Kulayeva of St. such a granular interest that he is apt to Moscow to weather, and the house smells mossy. lighted kitchen, General Ignatov no Consider the secondary roads that ex- Petersburg’s Memorial Anti-Discrimi- approach builders to question why they St. Petersburg The road is so derelict that no strangers longer had any reason to speak diplomat- ist on maps but were never actually built, Tollway nation Center. The vacuum has allowed are using that shade of paint. Fluttering Pochinokk pass through — this much is evident ically. The money available for repairing leaving Mr. Chertkov’s rig at a dead end child marriage to come roaring back. her hand toward a patch of sky, she de- from the rapt stares of her towheaded heat and water systems, for example, in farmland or deep forest. Consider the Torzhok RUSSIA As Mariuka hurtled across this scribed a magical scene of communion sons. They have grown up deep in the was about 12 percent of what was needed. traffic police officers in Dagestan, who, threshold, women arrived to celebrate between ‘‘the sovereign,’’ as she called forest. And everything was breaking at once. when Mr. Chertkov refused to pay a bribe in crazy waves of color. The master of him, and his people: His helicopter flies Ms. Kolesnikova is not leaving, ‘‘What can be done without money?’’ of 3,000 rubles, or about $93, twisted his ceremonies gripped a battery-powered so low that when tourists call out to him though. Asked why, she gave an answer he said. ‘‘Twelve percent is only enough arms behind his back and made him microphone, working the crowd into a from the ground, he actually answers. Chernayaaya GryazGGryaz that would resonate with any Russian: to patch the holes, but not always, and breathe into a funnel they had fashioned delirium of gaiety. ‘‘Happier! Happier! The monastery’s abbot, Father Ant- The air is clean. They gather berries and out of paper towels. ‘‘The Breathalyzer Happier! Opa! Opa! Opa!’’ The tiny ony, looked alarmed by her characteriz- MoscowMosMMooosc mushrooms in the summer. They pro- ‘‘I would say it is a swamp, shows that you have been drinking,’’ he groom sat in a chair in the corner, play- ation, saying Mr. Putin had made only a duce their own cottage cheese and sour was told. ‘‘The fine is 3,000 rubles.’’ N a stagnant swamp. As it ing video games on his phone. couple of official visits. The cleric’s re- cream. ‘‘Everything is ours,’’ she said. Mr. Chertkov has begun to crave or- Night was falling, and their departure straint was understandable — church Source: Avtodordoo 150 km And yet the risks rise from year to was, so it is. Nothing is der, something he imagines existed un- took place in a cascade of elaborate, syr- officials have repeatedly weathered year. Last spring, when the mud was so changing.’’ der Stalin. He feels envious when he upy toasts, interrupted only once by a tabloid rumors that Mr. Putin was SWEDEDENED FINLAND deep that ‘‘we lived as if we were on an is- drives through Belarus, where the po- woman who pulled a guest aside, un- secretly wed there to Alina Kabayeva, a land,’’ she and her neighbors appealed to lice are too afraid to ask for bribes. The smiling, and asked her to take one last former Olympic gymnast, or cordoned it the local prosecutor. They argued that not enough for all the holes. You choose Russia he sees from the cab of his truck St.SStt PPetersburg RUSSIA look at the place she was leaving. off for a secret baptism. the state was obliged to keep the roads the most horrible hole out of all the big doesn’t suffer from a lack of freedom; it ‘‘We have no gas, we have no water,’’ And in the village that abuts Mr. passable year-round, if only for the safety ones, so that people can simply survive suffers from a lack of control. she said. ‘‘We have nothing.’’ Putin’s compound, a drunken workman DETAIL of the last souls who remain in this wood. the winter.’’ But the Kremlin, he said, has ‘‘There is no master in the house,’’ he told extravagant tales of amenities he LATLATVIAA They received an answer, on official insulated itself from the consequences. said of Russia’s leaders. ‘‘They sign de- AN EPIC TRAFFIC JAM had glimpsed within its high walls, like LITH. letterhead, and the answer was no. ‘‘Turn on any channel, and what you crees if necessary, but it’s as if they live The M10 highway looks normal enough individual basins that would allow see is that they are all thieves in the somewhere abroad and come here to at the southern limits of St. Petersburg, guests to bathe in honey and yogurt. Moscow ‘I AM THE BOSS, YOU ARE A FOOL’ provinces, they destroyed everything, work. They don’t give a damn.’’ POLANDD but then, with a jolt, it begins to atrophy. Then, disgusted, he spat out the sum of BELARUS Occasionally, someone important draws they are idiots and bastards, they don’t A short way down the road was Mos- For the next 690 kilometers, or 430 his army pension. ‘‘To him, if there is life attention to the decay of small-town do anything and don’t want to,’’ he said. cow, bulging, spreading, enriching itself miles, the surface of the highway, while outside the Moscow ring road, we are UKRAINENE Russia. Now angry, the former mayor quoted a and epitomizing his complaints about paved, varies from corduroy to jaw-rat- vegetables, not people,’’ the workman It plays out like this: A visiting digni- line from Pushkin: ‘‘Russia will arise the direction the country is taking. ‘‘It’s tling patchwork. Sometimes it has four said, a little blearily, before his friends, tary will express public and sputtering from her age-old sleep,’’ it goes, ‘‘and like a tumor, and all around it is lanes, sometimes two, with few medians visibly anxious, pulled him away. mer. After that, the woods are denser rage at the city’s condition. He will fix our names will be inscribed on the poverty,’’ he said. and frequently no lane markings at all. But even he longed for Mr. Putin’s mo- and harder to penetrate. Eight kilome- the mayor — often, a loyal member of wreckage of despotism.’’ But then his time came, as well. Mr. Traffic creeps forward behind a pro- torcade to drive up the road now and ters west of the M10 lies the village of his own political team — with a glare It was a stirring line of poetry, but it Chertkov washed the grease off his cession of 18-wheelers hauling goods then, if only to ensure that it is well main- Pochinok, where the wilderness is like an ice pick. The mayor will look at was written 99 years before the October thick hands and hauled himself up into from the port of St. Petersburg, passing tained. If there is one thing that people in slowly closing in around Nina Koles- his shoes and remain silent. Moral re- Revolution. the cab of his truck and pulled away. villages with names like Cockroachville, this part of the country crave from Mr. nikova and her children. sponsibility is in that way transferred Proximity to Moscow was hardening Teacupville and Chessville. It is the most Putin, it is his attention. They are the If once animals living in this forest downward, the public mollified. The ‘BLACK DIRT’ him, Mr. Chertkov said, as his rig heavily traveled cargo route in Russia, people who make public requests to him learned to avoid humans, something name for this spectacle, among the most A traveler who has reached the village merged with traffic from the airport. and yet for truck drivers complying with for five hours on live television, in an an- now tells them not to be afraid. The oth- cherished in Russian political life, is, ‘‘I of Chernaya Gryaz — the name means Maybe it was time to check out for a sea- regulations, it takes 24 hours to travel be- nual ritual made for a modern-day czar. er day, Ms. Kolesnikova, 42, emerged am the boss, you are a fool.’’ Black Dirt — can feel the suck of Mos- son, park his rig in his native village, tween the two cities, said Viktor Dosen- from her house and found that her dog’s Most Russians live in housing built in cow on his skin. So it was for the truck where people are simpler and more vir- ko, vice president of the International ‘AS IF WE WERE ON AN ISLAND’ throat had been torn out. She could the late Soviet period. A report released driver Aleksandr Chertkov who, squint- tuous. Put his keys on the shelf and do Transport Academy. On a good road, he Beyond Valdai, where collective farms make out the tracks of three large last year by the Russian Union of Engi- ing in the direction of the city, had the nothing until the spring. said, the trip should take 10 hours. once extended in all directions, heading wolves across the kitchen garden. neers found that 20 percent of city square-jawed, cleareyed look of a Soviet But these were the idle thoughts of a From time to time, the dismal condition off the highway for more than a few ‘‘They have come to where the people dwellings lacked hot water, 12 percent monument to the workingman. Years man moving at full speed in the direction of the highway has made national news. minutes is like leaving the known world. are,’’she said. ‘‘They are not afraid of the had no central heating and 10 percent spent on Russia’s highways have under- of the Kremlin. On the right he passed After a snowstorm in November, about Overhead the sky churns, many- dogs. Why should they be afraid of us?’’ had no indoor plumbing. Gas leaks, ex- mined his faith in just about everything. one of Russia’s largest shopping malls, 10,000 vehicles got stuck in a traffic jam layered and full of light. Along the road Between the great cities are hundreds plosions and heating breakdowns hap- Black Dirt is known for its prostitutes, and a high wall of housing blocks that are that extended more than 110 kilometers, is riotous life, peonies the size of volley- of disappearing settlements: towns be- pen with increasing frequency, but in mostly shop workers recruited from home to some 8,000 new arrivals. After trapping some drivers for three days in balls swimming in the haze of midsum- coming villages, villages becoming most places infrastructure is simply provincial cities, who waver on high that there was nowhere to go but in. .. INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | 15 Sports basketball baseball n.f.l. Jacksonville Hoops kingdom awaits a growth spurt proves more BASKETBALL THIMPHU, BHUTAN worthy than Led by the royal family, Bhutan basketball gains point spread a (mountain) foothold N.F.L. DENVER BY GARDINER HARRIS With just seconds left in the game, the Oddsmakers expected queen of Bhutan went to the hole like a blowout loss to Denver, hungry snow leopard pouncing on a mountain goat, taking two dribbles and but Broncos look mortal three long strides before putting up a royal layup. BY DAN FROSCH Yes, your majesty! Queen Jetsun Pema Wangchuck’s fi- In the end, just as had been the case all nal basket was just one of 17 she made in week, it was never a question of whether a friendly game of basketball last month the undefeated Denver Broncos would with nine other women. Basketball may beat the winless Jacksonville Jaguars, be a street game in the United States, but rather a more intriguing calcula- but it is the game of kings and queens in tion: by how much would they win? Bhutan. For days, an N.F.L.-record-tying Indeed, the 23-year-old queen, who 28-point spread had sent Las Vegas plays almost every day, is surprisingly oddsmakers and football fans into a good. The royal set shot is as sweet as tizzy, leading to a circuslike atmosphere honeyed ghee, and the royal dribble as for what should have been a ho-hum poised as a monk in meditation. Her sta- game featuring the league’s most potent tistics Friday in that game were like offense against its worst. those of an N.B.A. star: 34 points, 3 re- But the game was far closer, with the bounds and 4 assists. ‘‘If I had known Broncos winning on Sunday, 35-19, in a you’d be counting, I would have played sloppy, turnover-filled affair. And even harder,’’ she said with a laugh. Denver quarterback Peyton Manning, The queen’s husband, King Jigme aided at times by the Jaguars them- Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, his broth- selves, could not cover the points. er and two of his three half-brothers also ‘‘Certainly, it does motivate the oppo- play regularly. But after decades of be- nent when they’re hearing it all week,’’ ing a largely royal preserve, basketball Manning said, referring to the lopsided in Bhutan is about to have its breakout prediction. ‘‘For us, it is business as usu- moment. al, and it is about executing every single A South Korean coach has been hired week.’’ to cobble together a national team that PHOTOGRAPHS BY KUNI TAKAHASHI FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES All week, Denver players had insisted many hope will someday be able to chal- Basketball players on a local Thimphu school team practicing on an outdoor court. Bhutanese players say their best hope for a win in international play could be against the Maldives. that Jacksonville was a formidable, mo- lenge its neighbors for bragging rights tivated opponent, filled with proud pro- in South Asia and beyond. Bhutan has fessionals like running back Maurice tried many times to win an international handle a basketball in the first weeks of mythic match, as security guards shoo Jones-Drew. game but has never succeeded, except practice. For the next two hours, Kim away the curious when K4 plays. Asked last week whether he had used for a single victory in a three-on-three put his recruits through a series of The present king, known as K5, can the skewed prognostications as motiva- tournament. lunges, squats and pivots — the essen- shoot jumpers with both hands, and the tion, Jaguars Coach Gus Bradley said: Bhutan’s main problem is height. Few tial moves of a vigorous defense. royal drive to the basket is said to be like ‘‘No. I don’t go there, because I think in this nation of 742,000 are taller than 6 Bhutanese players say their best a freight train’s. But defense? Not in his things like that at times are more ex- feet, or 1.83 meters. The queen is 5-foot- hope for a win could be against the Mal- tool kit, several players said. ternal motivation.’’ 5, and her husband and brothers-in-law dives, a country with half of Bhutan’s Bhutanese are forbidden to touch a He added, ‘‘If you get caught doing are not much taller. Dunking is almost population that is threatened by global royal unless specifically invited to do so. that one week, you’re doing it the next as rare as dragons. warming. As sea levels rise, Maldivians That invitation is implicitly extended week and you’re doing it the next week, ‘‘And I don’t think our backboards are may have trouble finding places to play, during basketball games, but in two ob- and you’re always searching to try to strong enough to take a lot of dunking,’’ players noted. And facing them in Thim- served games, no one seemed excited find reasons to be motivated.’’ said Paljor Dorji, an impish 70-year-old phu’s thin air (the city’s altitude is 7,710 about putting a body on an opposing But such talk did little to put a damper known as Benji. He is widely credited feet, or 2,350 meters) could provide a royal. And fouling one? The question led on fans around Denver leading up to the with bringing basketball to Bhutan and crucial advantage. to stunned looks and nervous giggles. game. Some wondered when Manning, instilling a passion for it in the royal ‘‘I fouled the queen once,’’ Yeshey who has been sensational all season, family. ‘‘In order to cover the height Om, a 20-year-old college student in would be taken out to rest his aging There is a saying in basketball that problem, I’m trying to get Thimphu, said as though remembering body so his young backup, Brock Os- height cannot be taught, and Kiyong a car wreck. ‘‘I was a little scared, but weiler, could finally get in some work. Kim, the new national team coach, says them into a faster style of she said, ‘It’s O.K.’ The game, though, was never really in he does not intend to try. play.’’ ‘‘She wants us to check her, and she hand until the fourth quarter, and with a ‘‘In order to cover the height problem, gets mad if we don’t. She thinks we’re 14-12 score at halftime, the Broncos never I’m trying to get them into a faster style scared of her,’’ Ms. Om said, and then really had a chance to beat the spread. of play,’’ Kim said through a giggling ‘‘The thing I’ve noticed about Bhu- added thoughtfully: ‘‘We are scared of The presence of Bhutan’s king could be felt at national team tryouts, if only via photo. Manning, who came in having thrown young interpreter. tanese basketball is that you guys don’t her.’’ for a staggering 20 touchdowns with just On a worn parquet floor in the tired really care about defense,’’ Kim shouted Before the queen arrived to play, a roy- one interception, had his first slightly gymnasium where Queen Wangchuck while his players sweated and groaned al retinue rolled out a red carpet between basket on a well-practiced give-and-go. Wangchuck said that she has been play- shaky performance in a season that has played, Kim began that process Sept. 2. in an extended squat. ‘‘That has to the gym’s entry and the basketball She then scored on two fast breaks, and ing basketball since she was 9 ‘‘and I otherwise been nearly flawless. About 50 young men showed up for the change. That will change.’’ court. on a jump shot that led her to check a fin- haven’t stopped since.’’ He muffed a snap midway through first of what Kim promised would be It is a problem that could have result- A clutch of women filtered in and gernail with some concern. Near the end ‘‘For me now, basketball is a great the second quarter that eventually set years of regular practices. ed from basketball’s royal birth. Bhu- whispered among themselves until the of the first quarter, she drove to the bas- way of meeting girls and interacting up a 30-yard Jacksonville field goal. A ‘‘The most important things are at- tanese royalty — like some princes of queen appeared carrying a Louis Vuit- ket through a suspiciously wide lane. with them in an informal way,’’ said the tendance, physical fitness, your ability American basketball — is known more ton purse and wearing a teal T-shirt, Her majesty’s team built a huge lead queen, a former commoner and a ‘‘There was a lot of bad to understand the game and, lastly, your for enthusiastic shooting than vigorous black tights and neon-pink Nike sneak- until the opposing players tightened renowned beauty. football out there. We’ll enthusiasm as defenders,’’ he said in an defense. Bhutan’s fourth king, 57-year- ers. She greeted the players cheerfully their defense. To her credit, Queen And then a courtier who had just tried opening speech that could have been old Jigme Singye Wangchuck, now re- but quickly went out on the court, where Wangchuck rose to the challenge, hit- to block her majesty’s shot (and had have to correct it and get taken straight from ‘‘Hoosiers,’’ a tired and widely referred to simply as the women split into well-remembered ting a jump shot just inside the 3-point made three of her five 3-point shot at- better next time.’’ movie about an underdog basketball K4, still plays daily and is rumored to teams. A man standing at attention at a line and driving hungrily to the basket tempts, a fine showing) opened the door team in a tiny Indiana town. have made 65 3-pointers in a game (the small scorer’s table started a digital with a defender in her face in the last of the royal Toyota Prius and — the game And like the coach in ‘‘Hoosiers,’’ Kim N.B.A. record is 12). No one seems to clock, and a claxon sounded. Queen seconds. The final score was 74-60. decidedly over — bowed low as the queen few minutes later, he threw a rare inter- promised that his players would rarely know how many shots he missed in that Wangchuck scored her team’s second In an interview after the game, Queen hopped inside and was driven away. ception, which was returned 59 yards for a touchdown. He finished 28 for 42 for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns. ‘‘Three turnovers was tough, and then just had some things that we didn’t execute as well,’’ Manning said. Despite win, Boston mystified by Detroit’s starting rotation Jacksonville quarterback Chad Henne, filling in for the injured Blaine BASEBALL Jackson, a center fielder who had never The Tigers shipped four players to Gabbert, played well, connecting with played in the majors. Seattle — outfielder Casper Wells, pitch- Justin Blackmon 14 times for 190 yards. BY TYLER KEPNER ‘‘No question Granderson was a very ers Charlie Furbush and Chance Ruffin And Jones-Drew, with 71 rushing yards, good player, and Jackson pitched well and Francisco Martinez, a Class AA had his best outing of what has been a The Boston Red Sox did what they had for us, too,’’ Dombrowski said. ‘‘But we third baseman Dombrowski said was disastrous season for Jacksonville (0-6). to do in Game 2 of the American League needed more depth in talent, and young the key to the deal. The trade failed for Ultimately, though, the Broncos (6-0) Championship Series, the only way they talent.’’ the Mariners — Martinez is actually had too much firepower for the Jaguars, could have done it. They evened the The Tigers had passed on Scherzer in back with the Tigers, having never who did themselves no favors with a series with a 6-5 comeback victory over the first round of the 2006 draft, taking reached the majors — while Fister has botched snap on a field-goal attempt in the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen. They cannot another college pitcher, Andrew Miller, been a dependable starter with a strong the first half and a series of critical pen- solve the Tigers’ rotation. who became a centerpiece of their trade October track record. He beat the Yan- alties. And Manning had his share of In two games, the Red Sox have 2 hits with the Marlins for Cabrera. But they kees to clinch the 2011 division series bright moments — like firing a 20-yard and 25 strikeouts in 13 innings against had scouted Scherzer extensively, and and has worked five consecutive quality touchdown pass to Wes Welker in the Detroit starters. And they have not even did not believe his herky-jerky delivery starts in the postseason since then. first quarter and floating a pinpoint pass faced Justin Verlander, who starts would cause injury problems, as some Sanchez was more established when between two defenders to Demaryius Game 3 on Tuesday at Comerica Park. teams feared. the Tigers acquired him in July 2012, but Thomas, leading to a Knowshon Moreno The Tigers drafted Verlander in the Scherzer said he had smoothed his came with an expiring contract. He was touchdown run. Moreno, who has had a first round in 2004, their consolation prize mechanics over the years. He makes decent over seven seasons with the resurgent season in Denver, had three for losing 119 games the year before. The sure he pauses just before he comes set Marlins (44-45, 3.75), and the Tigers rushing touchdowns. rest of this playoff rotation came in trades and breaks his hands by his chest as his gave up three prospects — catcher Rob In perhaps an example of how far the by General Manager Dave Dombrowski. leg comes down. Scherzer said it had Brantly and starters Jacob Turner and Broncos — and the city of Denver — ex- ‘‘I think it’s remarkable, to be honest helped his rhythm, allowing him to com- Brian Flynn — to get him and second pect this team to soar, the mood in the with you,’’ Tigers Manager Jim Leyland JARED WICKERHAM/GETTY IMAGES-AFP mand four pitches. He strikes out hitters baseman Omar Infante. They also home locker room was hardly befitting a said. ‘‘He’s very thorough, he believes Max Scherzer, acquired by Detroit before the 2010 season, went 21-3 in the regular season. at the same rate he did with Arizona, but swapped draft picks with the Marlins in 16-point victory. in his people, his scouts’ opinions, and allows fewer hits and walks. He went the compensation rounds. ‘‘I think it’s big for us to understand he makes tough decisions, and he’s very 21-3 this season with a 2.90 E.R.A. ‘‘We thought we were only going to that every game is going to be tough,’’ good at it. It’s a pretty good rotation; regular season and thoroughly domi- after Hoyt had won a Cy Young Award. ‘‘Dave has done a great job finding have Sanchez for a couple of months; Welker said. ‘‘There was a lot of bad when you’ve got 60 percent of that by nated the Red Sox over the weekend. Reaction in Chicago was harsh, but the guys at the right point in their careers to that really was our plan,’’ Dombrowski football out there. We’ll have to correct trades, that’s impressive.’’ Sanchez struck out 12 and allowed no deal brought Ozzie Guillen, who held make them even better,’’ Scherzer said. said. ‘‘We weren’t trying to bargain or it and get better next time.’’ None of the other teams in baseball’s hits in six innings to win Game 1 on Sat- down shortstop for 13 years. ‘‘When we’ve come to Detroit, we’ve all negotiate at that point. But he pitched so Still, even the most glass-half-empty final four has more than one playoff urday. Scherzer carried a no-hitter into ‘‘You always have to remember,’’ collectively pitched even better than we well for us down the stretch that it just Broncos fans will invariably continue to starter acquired through a trade. The the sixth in Game 2 on Sunday, fanning 13 Dombrowski said Hemond had told him, have in the past.’’ seemed to make sense for us to try to marvel at the Broncos’ offense this sea- Tigers have three. Their fifth starter, the in seven innings before the bullpen blew ‘‘when you’re the general manager and Fister, like Scherzer, came to the Ti- sign him.’’ son. It is hard not to. Manning has homegrown Rick Porcello, lost in relief the game. Five relievers were charged you trade the known for the unknown, gers with room to grow as a pitcher and After three strong starts last October, thrown for more than 2,000 yards and on Sunday. with runs, with four coming on David you’re going to get criticized.’’ several years of team control. In parts of the Tigers retained Sanchez for five has often looked more like a video game Even after their World Series appear- Ortiz’s grand slam off Joaquin Benoit. Scherzer was not quite an unknown in three seasons with Seattle, Fister had a years and $80 million. He rewarded avatar than a 37-year-old quarterback ance in 2006, and a transformative trade Dombrowski, perhaps, could have December 2009, but he had made only 37 12-30 record that belied a respectable them by leading the league in E.R.A., at who has had four neck operations. for Miguel Cabrera in 2007, the Tigers built a stronger bullpen. But if starting starts for the Arizona Diamondbacks, 3.81 E.R.A. The Mariners, slogging 2.57, and leading the Tigers to victory And if Sunday’s game finally made quickly grew stale. Dombrowski went to pitching matters most in the long haul with a 9-15 record. Dombrowski traded through another last-place season in Saturday on their latest push toward a the Broncos look mortal, Manning and work, acquiring Max Scherzer before the — and it does — he could not have done two players who had just been All-Stars 2011, had greater needs. pennant. his teammates, at least, did not seem 2010 season, Doug Fister during the 2011 a better job. Dombrowski, 57, started his — center fielder Curtis Granderson and ‘‘They had some depth in starters, but surprised. The postseason, the Super season and Anibal Sanchez last summer. career with the Chicago White Sox in starter Edwin Jackson — in a three-way they were trying to acquire more depth ONLINE: INFAMOUS CUBS FAN LIES LOW Bowl — they are all still months away. The result is a rotation that led the 1978. As a young executive, he saw his deal with Arizona and the New York in talent in their organization,’’ Dom- Steve Bartman, the fan who deflected a ‘‘It is not easy to win football games,’’ league in victories, innings, strikeouts boss, Roland Hemond, trade pitcher Yankees for Scherzer, relievers Phil browski said, adding later, ‘‘Fister was foul ball in the 2003 N.L.C.S., has all but Manning said. ‘‘I learned long ago not to and earned run average (3.44) in the LaMarr Hoyt to San Diego one year Coke and Daniel Schlereth and Austin the guy that we really liked the most.’’ disappeared. nytimes.com/sports take anything for granted.’’ .. 16 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 ADVERTISING SUPPLEMENT INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES

Destination Philippines Part II

TOURISM | State of the industry ENTERTAINMENT | Gaming Aiming for a larger Creating a Vegas-style destination slice of the world he Asia-Pacific region could overtake those in Las Vegas and Macau will put the the United States as the world’s lead- Philippines in a new league in the gaming tourism pie T ing gaming market by the end of 2013, world. The government is counting on four generating as much as $80 billion annually new casinos at Entertainment City — a 120- ccording to the 2013 World Economic by 2015, according to a recent report by the hectare (297 acres) gaming and entertain- Forum, tourism to the Philippines is consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers. ment center currently under construction on A growing faster than to any other coun- ‘‘The turbulent global financial markets the shores of Manila Bay — to attract a mil- try in the Asia-Pacific region, having jumped have curtailed consumer spending in some lion more tourists per year to its gaming and 12 places on the WEF Travel and Tourism of the major markets for casino gaming,’’ entertainment facilities. Competitive Index since its last edition in says Marcel Fenez, who is leader of global One of the anchors of Entertainment City 2011. entertainment and media at PwC and based is the $1.3 billion Belle Grande Manila Bay According to the report, among the coun- in Hong Kong. ‘‘But we’ve seen huge growth integrated resort complex, which is being de- try’s comparative strengths is ‘‘a very strong in Asia as the affluent middle classes seek veloped by SM Investment. Scheduled to and improving prioritization for the travel new forms of entertainment, and gaming’s open in mid-2014, the resort will feature and tourism industry.’’ As a percentage of intense balance of risk and reward has a 950 hotel rooms, 240 gaming tables and gross domestic product, government special appeal for many people.’’ 1,250 slot machines as well as gaming spending on the sector is now first in the Standard and Poor’s recently forecast areas for exclusive clients. world, and the Philippines’ tourism market- that Macau will continue to receive the lion’s ‘‘We are confident that our Manila resort ing and branding campaigns are increasingly share of investment in the Asian gaming in- project would contribute meaningfully to the effective. dustry, with the Philippines emerging as its Philippines government's aim to promote Government efforts toward better pro- main challenger. The global ratings agency tourism,’’ says Lawrence Ho of Melco Crown tection of property rights, more openness predicts that revenues from gaming in the Entertainment, which is working with SM In- toward foreign investment and fewer visa Philippines will increase by at least 6 per- vestment to create the Belle Grande. ‘‘The requirements for international visitors are cent annually through 2015, significantly Philippines is well placed to cater to the in- also boosting tourism. A recent decision to outpacing the nation’s projected economic creasingly affluent and growing middle class remove the common carrier tax that foreign growth over the same period. throughout Asia, who continue to seek new airlines once paid to fly to and from Manila The tourism secretary, Ramon Jimenez Jr., travel destinations and experiences has also opened the door to more overseas calls gaming a ‘‘colorful and dynamic billboard throughout the region.’’ carriers and, therefore, more visitors. for general tourism.’’ While his department is Already open at Entertainment City, the Other improvements include upgrading not directly involved in developing or man- $1.2 billion Solaire Resort and Casino is ma- airports and other tourism infrastructure, aging the casino sector, Jimenez supports its jority owned by the seaport magnate Enrique creating more attractively priced packages growth as a means to invigorate the econo- Razon. When it opened in March, the resort and implementing a national accommoda- my and attract more international visitors. reported revenue of $13.4 million in its first tion standard for hotels, resorts and apart- The Philippine Amusement and Gaming 15 days. Solaire offers nearly 300 gaming ment hotels using a star-rating system. Corp., or Pagcor, the state-owned gambling tables, including blackjack, craps and roulette, PHILIPPINES DEPARTMENT OF TOURISM Tourism officials hope many more im- company and regulator, forecasts domestic as well as 1,200 slot machines and a 6,000- provements and enhancements will be in In addition to its entertainment options and cultural attractions, the Philippines’ natural environment is also a draw. Above: Lake Sebu in South Cotabato, Mindanao. revenues will reach $5 billion to $7 billion by square-meter (64,583 square feet) VIP gam- place in time for important world events 2016. Earnings from the industry could ing salon. Solaire is managed and partially scheduled to take place in the Philippines. agenda, gives us the confidence to achieve ‘‘Scuba Diving Magazine says that the Philip- said Jimenez when the campaign was first eventually exceed $10 billion, providing di- owned by Global Gaming Asset Management, These include the APEC Summit in 2015 and our target of 10 million tourist arrivals by pines is the Best Diving Destination, and launched. ‘‘Our strategy is simple: while oth- rect and indirect employment for up to whose three principals — Bill Weidner, Brad the Asean Tourism Forum in 2016. 2016.’’ Palawan is the Best Island if you ask Travel er countries invite you to observe, Filipinos 400,000 people. Stone and Garry Saunders — have all held While the Philippines has set high targets President Benigno S. Aquino III is espe- and Leisure magazine. It seems they just can promise a more heartfelt and interest- Founded in the 1960s, Pagcor currently senior positions with the Las Vegas Sands. in the travel and tourism sector, leaders in cially proud of praise in the international stopped short of calling us paradise.’’ ing experience. Wherever you go, whatever oversees 13 casinos and several VIP slot Other casino resorts under construction the private and public sectors are bullish press. The Philippines Department of Tourism you do in the country, it’s the Filipinos that clubs as well as bingo parlors and games include Resorts World Bayshore and Manila these goals can be achieved. ‘‘According to the Oriental Morning Post, and its award-winning ‘‘It’s More Fun in the will complete your vacation and will make cafes throughout the country. Bay Resorts, both scheduled to be com- ‘‘We have been seeing a sustainable in- we are the Best Tourism Destination of Philippines’’ campaign can take much credit your holiday unforgettable.’’ J.C. A new wave of luxury casinos similar to pleted by 2016. J.C. crease in arrivals since last year,’’ says the 2012, and it seems the Shanghai Morning for the surge in tourism arrivals. tourism secretary, Ramon Jimenez Jr. ‘‘This Post fell in love with our country when they Jimenez’s brainchild, the campaign was building enthusiasm for the Philippines, named us the Most Romantic Destination of launched in January 2012. Previously one of NATIONAL TREASURES | Natural and cultural attractions aided by our government’s good governance 2012,’’ said President Aquino recently. the country’s top advertising gurus, Jimenez was widely expected to devise a successful Reefs and rice terraces, and a subterranean river campaign. Destination Philippines: Part II was produced by the Creative Solutions department and did ‘‘The best marketing communications ost overseas visitors come to the the secluded Tubbataha Reefs are one of Mindanao Island, Mount Apo, the nation’s not involve the newspaper’s reporting or editorial departments. Text by JULIA CLERK and campaigns anywhere in the world are really Philippines for the pristine beaches the holy grails of the world’s scuba divers. highest mountain, is a popular climbing des- JOSEPH R. YOGERST. Part I appeared on Oct. 14. hinged on the simplicity of a proposition,’’ M and exotic Metro Manila experi- Centered around three coral atolls, the reefs tination. Although considered to be active, ence. Yet other national treasures, both nat- are among the most pristine in Asia, an un- the volcanic giant hasn’t erupted in recorded ural and manmade, are scattered derwater wonderland that harbors more history. The hike to the three-peaked sum- throughout the islands. than 500 fish species and 350 different mit takes three or four days via tropical Among these are seven Unesco World types of coral, as well as whales and dol- forest with many endemic flora and fauna Heritage Sites that preserve the cultural and phins, sharks and sea turtles and other species, and a crater lake. natural heritage of the archipelago. large creatures. The most common way to A cultural destination on Mindanao is the Perched near the northern end of Luzon access the reefs is to take a live-aboard Maranao settlement at Tugaya, an entire Island, the old town in Vigan City is con- dive boat from Palawan Island. town of craftsman and artists. The creative sidered the best example in Asia of a Palawan is also home to the Puerto roots of the Maranao people stretch back planned European colonial town. Horse- Princesa Subterranean River National Park, hundreds of years and include a wide variety drawn calesa, or carriages, ply cobble- dubbed as one of the New Seven Wonders of artistic genres, from weaving and wood- stone streets flanked by 16th-century man- of Nature during worldwide voting in 2011. carving to brass stamping, gold- and silver- sions that have been converted into craft The heart of the park is a 5.1-mile smithing, furniture making and beadwork. shops, boutique hotels, restaurants and (8.2 kilometers) underground section of The Kabayan Mummy Burial Caves in small museums. Cabayugan River that visitors can explore the northern Philippines reflect the precolo- Some of the nation’s spiritual gems are by outrigger canoe. Hiking trails lead nial funeral rites of the local Ibaloi people. found in the same region. The flamboyant through thick rainforest to spectacular More than 200 caves contain the remains Church of San Agustin in Paoay (1686) and karst outcrops and other caverns. of bygone islanders mummified via a pro- the fortress-like Church of Nuestra Señora The Philippines’ eclectic array of natural cess similar to that used in ancient Egypt, de la Asunción (1687) are part of a and cultural wonders, which spans the en- the body arranged in a fetal position inside scattered World Heritage site called the tire archipelago, includes other places that an open-topped wooden coffin. Opened to Baroque Churches of the Philippines. could be candidates for World Heritage the public in 2002, the area is developing The Paoay chapel is an incredible ex- nomination. infrastructure to increase accessibility and ample of ‘‘earthquake baroque,’’ Spanish Towering 9,692 feet (2,954 meters) over visitation. J.R.Y. colonial architecture adapted to the region’s seismic conditions. The overall effect is something like a giant bodacious stone barn, the walls supported by fat buttresses and the facade covered in intricate Iberian decoration. Farther south on Luzon is another nation- al treasure, the rice terraces of Ifugao Province. Etched into steep volcanic hillsides over 2,000 years, the terraces are wonders of engineering, agriculture and community cooperation. Like the rice terraces of Bali, they are also incredibly photogenic, a green mosaic set against a backdrop of red- roofed villages and purple mountains swathed in stark white clouds. At the opposite end of the archipelago are two of the Philippines natural wonders. GEORGE ‘‘THE HOUSEKEEPER’’ MATEO / GETTY IMAGES Located in the middle of the Sulu Sea, The Church of San Agustin, built in 1686 in Paoay, has been recognized by Unesco as World Heritage.

CULTURE | Visual and performing arts Nurturing a dynamic and thriving scene

n up-and-coming arts hub of South- mission: serving the entire nation by pre- Casa San Miguel in Zambales. It was foun- east Asia, the Philippines offers an serving and promoting Filipino arts. ded by the celebrated violinist Alfonso A impressive blend of talent drawn Another leading proponent is Tanghalang ‘‘Coke’’ Bolipata in 1993 as a place to en- from its diverse cultural heritage. With Asian, Pilipino, the national drama troupe, also gage the local community with Filipino and in- Spanish and American influences and strong based at the CCP. In addition to staging ternational artists, experts and advocates. Catholic leanings, Filipinos excel in painting, plays, the company is dedicated to develop- The popular music scene is also thriv- sculpting, dance, theater and music. ing and training new actors, playwrights and ing. Around the country, live bands and solo Under the leadership of various national designers with special emphasis on produ- artists perform nightly in clubs and music troupes and institutions, this is a golden age cing original Filipino plays. halls hoping to become the next national for arts in the archipelago. Metro Manila, Celebrating its 40th anniversary, the Phil- idol. From the pop icon Erik Santos and the meanwhile, has morphed into one of the ippine Philharmonic Orchestra, the country’s rockers Tanduay First Five to the Pinoy hip best places in the region for music, dance leading ensemble, is in the middle of its 31st hop artist Andrew Espiritu and the Tony- and theater. Classics Season, which runs through April winning Broadway and West End star Lea Leading the charge is the Cultural Center 2014. In keeping with the national push to Salonga, the Philippines has no shortage of of the Philippines in Pasay City. The CCP pre- bring the arts to every citizen, the orchestra talent. serves indigenous Filipino music and dance is committed to narrowing the perceived di- Over the last century, a number of while creating repertoires suited to the de- vide between classical music and Filipinos Filipino fine artists have earned lasting inter- mands of modern entertainment at home from all walks of life. It does this by show- national repute. These include the painters and abroad. casing new innovations and using more con- Felix Resurreccion Hidalgo, Fernando Amor- The CCP’s main partner in this effort is temporary branding. solo, Fabian dela Rosa and Federico Aguilar the world-renowned Bayanihan, the National The CCP is also home to the Ballet Philip- Alcuaz, and the sculptor Agnes Arellano. Dance Company of the Philippines. Since its pines, the nation’s foremost ballet and con- A whole new generation of Filipino artists Banaue Rice Terraces creation in the 1950s, the company has temporary dance troupe, and the Philippine is garnering accolades on the world stage. In Photo by George Tapan mounted 14 major international tours and Ballet Theater, which concentrates on clas- 2012, a painting by the artist Ronald Ventura itsmorefuninthephilippines.com made more than 100 overseas solo ap- sical ballet. entitled ‘‘Greyhound’’ sold at Sotheby's in facebook.com/itsmorefuninthephilippines pearances. Its name derives from the Taga- Cebu City in the central Philippines also Hong Kong for $1.1 million, making it the first log word bayani — a kind of hero who has a thriving arts scene, with troupes like work by a contemporary Southeast Asian renders personal service to his or her com- the Metropolitan Ballet Theater performing artist to surpass the magic $1 million mark. munity. In essence, this is the troupe’s often. Another important creative hub is J.R.Y. .. INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | 17 tennis sports

SCOREBOARD

Diplomatic backswing at the Davis Cup SOUTH W L T Pct PF PA FOOTBALL New Orleans 5 1 0 .833 161 103 Carolina 2 3 0 .400 109 68 TENNIS saw Romania, and its leader, Nicolae a lot smaller.’’ To the crowd’s chants of N.F.L. Atlanta 1 4 0 .200 122 134 Ceausescu, as a wedge to split the So- ‘‘Ti-ri-ac!’’ he won in five sets. AMERICAN CONFERENCE Tampa Bay 0 5 0 .000 64 101 EAST W L T Pct PF PA NORTH W L T Pct PF PA viet bloc. Ceausescu had shown himself The referee was Enrique Morea of Ar- New England 5 1 0 .833 125 97 Detroit 4 2 0 .667 162 140 ’72 final between U.S. independent of the Soviet Union by re- gentina, an impartial official with the Miami 3 2 0 .600 114 117 Chicago 4 2 0 .667 172 161 N.Y. Jets 3 3 0 .500 104 135 Green Bay 3 2 0 .600 137 114 and Romania was mix fusing to join other Eastern bloc coun- power to correct clear mistakes. Morea Buffalo 2 4 0 .333 136 157 Minnesota 1 4 0 .200 125 158 tries in severing diplomatic ties with Is- said that the cheating was the worst he SOUTH W L T Pct PF PA WEST W L T Pct PF PA Indianapolis 4 1 0 .800 139 79 Seattle 5 1 0 .833 157 94 of geopolitics and drama rael after the Six-Day War in 1967. A had ever seen and that the linesmen Tennessee 3 3 0 .500 128 115 San Francisco 4 2 0 .667 145 118 year later, he did not support the Soviet ‘‘saw whatever Tiriac wanted.’’ Houston 2 4 0 .333 106 177 St. Louis 3 3 0 .500 141 154 Jacksonville 0 6 0 .000 70 198 Arizona 3 3 0 .500 111 127 BY MATT RICHTEL invasion of Czechoslovakia. In the locker room at Club Sportiv Pro- NORTH W L T Pct PF PA SUNDAY Another hint of the diplomatic stakes gresul after the match, Van Dillen argued Cincinnati 4 2 0 .667 121 111 Carolina 35, Minnesota 10 Baltimore 3 3 0 .500 134 129 Kansas City 24, Oakland 7 Rain pelting its windows, an Air France came from a series of phone calls, said that the team should go home. Then Cleveland 3 3 0 .500 118 125 St. Louis 38, Houston 13 jet arrived in Bucharest, Romania, in Sigrid Draper, who then had close ties to came a made-for-television moment Pittsburgh 1 4 0 .200 88 116 Green Bay 19, Baltimore 17 WEST W L T Pct PF PA Philadelphia 31, Tampa Bay 20 Kansas City 6 0 0 1.000 152 65 early October 1972. Two dozen men the White House. Through her work in starring Solomon. ‘‘Come on, guys,’’ So- Pittsburgh 19, N.Y. Jets 6 Denver 6 0 0 1.000 265 158 Cincinnati 27, Buffalo 24, OT waited below. They wore leather jackets the Republican Party, she had become lomon recalled saying. ‘‘If we pack it in, San Diego 2 3 0 .400 125 129 Detroit 31, Cleveland 17 and shouldered machine guns, and some friends with Michelle Smith Chotiner, the and we let these guys have this thing, it’s Oakland 2 4 0 .333 105 132 Seattle 20, Tennessee 13 NATIONAL CONFERENCE had knives strapped to their ankles. wife of a close Nixon aide, Murray Chot- like they’re going to win twice,’’referring Denver 35, Jacksonville 19 EAST W L T Pct PF PA San Francisco 32, Arizona 20 The greeting party befitted a head of iner. After the attacks in Munich, Draper to playing in Romania, then forfeiting. Philadelphia 3 3 0 .500 166 179 New England 30, New Orleans 27 state or a political prisoner. In this case, said, Bob Kelleher, an acquaintance and The Americans were not the only Dallas 3 3 0 .500 183 152 Washington 1 4 0 .200 107 143 Dallas 31, Washington 16 the security detail was shepherding the Nixon-appointed federal judge who had ones on edge. ‘‘The Romanians had a N.Y. Giants 0 6 0 .000 103 209 Open: Atlanta, Miami U.S. Davis Cup team. been captain of the 1963 U.S. Davis Cup mixture of pride, and apprehension, Open: New Orleans, Oakland (AP) The 1972 Davis Cup final was an epic team and the president of the tennis as- hope and despair, the whole mix of Bal- drama. Tennis historians consider it one sociation from 1967 to 1968, called her to BOB DEAR/AP kan emotions,’’ Jonathan Rickert, the of the best Cup events. But the final that say the Davis Cup team was worried Ilie Nastase playing at Wimbledon. He consul in the U.S. Embassy at the time, year evinced something grander, an about its Jewish players. Draper, in turn, and Ion Tiriac were the only players Ro- said in a recent interview. event bathed in geopolitics, with hints of contacted Murray Chotiner. ‘‘The next mania used at the 1972 Davis Cup final. In the next day’s doubles match, the INYT Classifieds intrigue. It is a moment somewhat lost thing I knew,’’ Draper recalled, ‘‘Murray Americans took only 68 minutes to win in history, its context (including an ap- called me and said that Nixon called in straight sets, with Van Dillen having TO PLACE UK +44 (0)20 7061 3533 France +33141439206 parent cameo by President Richard M. Ceausescu and said, ‘Send them over.’" Ralston opted for Tom Gorman, who what Smith and others said was the AN AD CALL Nixon) not fully illuminated. Whether Nixon actually placed the had reached the U.S. Open semifinals match of his life. And so the Americans The Americas +866 459 1121 Asia +601 2697 4088 Six weeks before the match, the world call is tough to verify. But several mem- that year. But he was not built for clay led the Davis Cup, 2-1, heading into the had watched on television as Palestinian bers of Nixon’s national security team and had lost eight straight matches to final day’s singles matches: Smith vs. terrorists murdered 11 members of the at the time said that it was as likely as Nastase. The obvious choice would have Tiriac and Nastase vs. Gorman. General Israeli team at the Munich Olympics. not. Denis Clift, who in 1971 joined the been Solomon, a much stronger player The stage was set for a tense day. The next big international sporting National Security Council staff, said he on clay than Gorman, who had won a Polar opposites in style and tempera- Need to place a classified ad? Business & event was the Davis Cup in Romania, a had no direct knowledge but he could crucial match on that surface in the ment, Smith, a breezy surfer-boy Cali- Leisure Travel country friendly to the Palestinians, and see the logic behind such a move. ‘‘This Davis Cup semifinals in Spain. But Ral- fornian, and the combative Tiriac, black Contact one of the IHT advertising offices listed below. the Americans had two Jewish players. is a positive move of a pawn on the chess ston said Solomon had seemed a bit out Brillo-pad hair on his wrecking-ball-size Most credit cards accepted 1st/Business Class Worldwide Security precautions were extraordi- table,’’ Clift said. ‘‘He’s calling Ceauses- of shape. Ralston had other concerns. head, played a whopper. Tiriac won the IN EUROPE SCANDINAVIA Flights up to 50% off. (Denmark, Finland, Norway, Special fares for round-the-worlds, nary for tennis — SWAT teams on the cu saying: ‘We can have a win-win. I can ‘‘I didn’t think he’d be able to handle first set, Smith the next two, then Tiriac FRANCE Sweden) cruises, hotels. Frequent flyer hotel roof and motorcades that never have my people go over, and you can the threat of him being bombed or hit,’’ won the fourth, using all his tricks. Tel : (33 1) 41 43 92 06 Tel : +47 55 92 51 92 points redemption service. stopped at red lights — and the fear of guarantee nothing can happen.’’’ Ralston said. ‘‘I didn’t want him to go When Tiriac served long but Smith hit a Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Imperial Travel, Virtuoso Member attack felt real enough that the U.S. The Davis Cup is a best-of-five contest out there thinking someone might pot- winner, the linesman called Tiriac’s UNITED KINGDOM SPAIN 1-646-216-8816 www.imptrav.com coach, Dennis Ralston, sidelined Harold with four singles matches, featuring each shot him.’’ serve in and Smith’s return out. Tel : +44 (0)20 7061 3533 AIM, About International Media Solomon in part because he was Jewish. team’s two top singles players, and one The other Jewish American, Brian ‘‘I got two bad calls on the same Email: C/ Alcalá, 20, ofi. 403, 4ªplta. Education [email protected] 28014 Madrid (Spain) It was one more challenge heaped on the doubles match. The Romanians used Gottfried, was not expected to play. point,’’ Smith said, acknowledging, Tel. + 34 91 320 37 70 EDUCATIONAL COUNSELING team facing a contest on red clay, a slow only two players: the graceful and mer- In doubles, Smith was teamed with ‘‘This is when I was finally going nuts.’’ AUSTRIA/GERMANY Email: [email protected] Tel: +49 (0)69 71 67 79 10 U.S. SCHOOLS, UNIVERSITIES and less familiar surface to the Ameri- curial Ilie Nastase, a 26-year-old playboy Erik Van Dillen, who had not played well In the fifth set, Smith played breath- Email: GRAD DEGREES, CAREERS cans and their lone star, Stan Smith. and the reigning U.S. Open champion, in the Davis Cup final in 1971, when Tiri- less tennis, hitting indisputable winners [email protected] 35 years., thousands of clients. Even before the Munich attack, Ral- and the cunning brawler Ion Tiriac, a ac and Nastase routed them in North and beating Tiriac, 6-0, to secure a fifth www.MyIESolutions.com IN MIDDLE EAST IN ASIA ston said he had been warned not to member of the country’s 1964 Olympic Carolina. On paper, the outlook was du- straight Davis Cup title for the United ISRAEL Tel: +601 2697 4088 take the team to Romania by Neale hockey team. Nastase and Tiriac, nation- bious for the Americans, even if Smith States. Nastase defeated Gorman in the Tel: 972-3-512 17 74 Email: [email protected] READER Fraser, the coach of Australia’s Davis al heroes and clay-court experts, each won his two singles matches. In the first meaningless final match. Email: [email protected] WARNING Cup team, which played in Bucharest in played two singles matches, and they match on the first day, Oct. 13, he beat Rickert, the embassy consul, said the For any other countries in the While the New York Times has the summer of 1972. Fraser told Ralston teamed up for doubles. They had won the Nastase in straight sets. In the second Romanians, and Tiriac, had put up an Middle East, please contact endeavored to ensure, to its [email protected] satisfaction, the legitimacy and that his match had been stolen by parti- 1970 French Open doubles title on clay. match, Gorman was up by two sets to outsize fight, that mix of survival and fa- Tel: +971 4 428 9457 san line calls and cheating. ‘‘You can’t ‘‘Tennis for us, at least for Nastase and I, none when Tiriac started his antics, ac- talism. accuracy of the advertisements included in the newspaper at win because they won’t let you,’’ Ral- was our life,’’ Tiriac said in an e-mail dic- cording to the participants and news re- ‘‘Tiriac had no business being on the IN NORTH AMERICA IN AFRICA the time of publication, ston recalled Fraser’s telling him. tated to his personal assistant. For the ports at the time. He cajoled linesmen to court with Smith, tennis-wise,’’ Rickert UNITED STATES AND CANADA NORTH AFRICA it cannot accept liability for But much bigger forces were pro- Americans, Smith, who had defeated side with him on questionable calls, and said. ‘‘But, somehow, he played and Tel: 866-459-1121 Tel: 1 733 385 loss or damage that any of its pelling the United States toward Nastase three months earlier to win he sat in a chair in the middle of a game psyched and performed in such a way Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] readers may directly or indirectly suffer or incur as a IN SOUTH AMERICA Bucharest. In the late 1960s and early Wimbledon, was a lock to play singles to break Gorman’s rhythm. When Gor- that he made a match of it, and then he EAST AFRICA (out of UK) result of relying on such 1970s, Romania and the United States and doubles. The choice for the other man served, Tiriac stared at the ground just ran out of steam. What he did was a ECUADOR Tel: 207 328 7763 advertisements or in any Email: [email protected] had a cautious alliance that was crucial singles player, Ralston recalled, ‘‘was the to force him to pause. Gorman, fearing tribute to something, I’m just not sure Tel: 4 689 250 dealings with any party placing Email: luigi_lanterm/@hotmail.com during the Cold War. The United States toughest tennis decision I ever made.’’ bad line calls, said he felt ‘‘the court got quite what.’’ such advertisements.

NON SEQUITUR PEANUTS DOONESBURY FLASHBACK

GARFIELD CALVIN AND HOBBES

SUDOKU No. 1510

3 WIZARD of ID DILBERT ndicate 1 7 6 y 2 1 8 8 76 The New York Times s 6 4 9 y 2 4 6 7

8 9 5 1 PZZL.com Distributed b ) c Created by Peter Ritmeester/Presented by Will( Shortz

BRIDGE | Frank Stewart CROSSWORD | Edited by Will Shortz 1234 5678 910111213 Fill the grid so that Solution No. 1410 every row, column 5 4 3 6 7 1 9 8 2 In Greek myth, Zeus devised a terrible Across 22 Beset by a curse 53 Meal with Elijah’s cup 14 15 16 3x3 box and South Dealer 23 56 shaded 3x3 box 6 8 2 9 3 5 1 4 7 punishment for the evil King Tantalus. Both sides vulnerable 1 Cowboy chow Pinocchio, Journalist of the 17 18 19 9 1 7 4 2 8 6 3 5 ‘‘He shall dwell in Hades, declaring con- periodically Progressive Era contains each 5 Distresses of the numbers 1 3 6 5 8 9 7 2 4 tracts with plenty of winners but no way 24 Snarling dog 61 Kick out 20 21 22 North 9 Word from the Arabic 1 to 9 exactly once. to reach them,’’ Zeus decreed. 25 Poisonous 62 4 2 8 1 6 7 3 5 9 ä 75 for “struggle” Vogue alternative 23 24 7 5 9 2 4 3 8 1 6 So Tantalus agonized for eons — until × Q107 28 Person who works 63 Starting score μ 14 Simpson who said 2 6 1 8 9 4 5 7 3 today’s deal. West led a heart against AQJ with dipsticks in tennis 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 å J10932 “Beneath my goody 3NT, and Tantalus won with the jack. He two shoes lie some 33 Not much, in 64 8 7 4 3 5 6 2 9 1 Techie sorts 33 34 35 36 led the ace and queen of clubs, and West very dark socks” cookery 3 9 5 7 1 2 4 6 8 West East 65 From the top played low. If Tantalus next led a dia- 34 Powerful org. with ä Q932 ä J84 15 See 16-Across 66 37 38 39 40 41 HQ in Fairfax, Va. Managed, with “out” mond to finesse with dummy’s jack, East × K9864 × 532 16 With 15-Across, 67 Unable to hold still would win and return a heart, forcing out μ 7 μ K1094 preparing to pop the 35 Shine, commercially 42 43 44 the ace, and when the diamonds failed to å K76 å 854 question, say 37 People in this may 68 Speaker’s place 45 46 47 48 49 split 3-2, declarer would take only eight 17 Cash dispensers, have big ears 69 Like Lindbergh’s tricks. South for short 42 Shot ___ historic trans- 50 51 52 Atlantic flight Winning Play ä A K 10 6 18 “___ first you don’t 43 “Criminy!” × 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 For once, Tantalus found a winning play. AJ succeed …” 44 μ Actress Watts Down He led a diamond to the ace at Trick Four 86532 19 What a star on a å AQ 45 Sioux shoe 61 62 63 and returned a club, pitching his ace of U.S. flag represents 1 49 Metaphor, e.g. Glitz hearts. West took the king but was help- 20 Subject of the 2 64 65 66 South West North East 50 “Whazzat?” Meter maid of song less. Whatever he led next, Tantalus 1μ Pass 2å Pass book “Revolution 51 3 Gomer Pyle’s org. 67 68 69 could reach dummy and take four clubs, 3NT All Pass in the Valley” Employs 4 Legendary lizard two spades and three red-suit tricks. PUZZLE BY PATRICK BLINDAUER AND ANDREA CARLA MICHAELS THE NEW YORK TIMES Solution to October 14 puzzle with a fatal gaze ‘‘Nothing would defeat that line of play,’’ Opening lead - × 6 TAPE GAPE NALA 5 13 36 53 Zeus growled. ‘‘Well, let’s see how the Japanese dog breed Monopoly card Theater award since Gaming giant NE IN ALOT MOTOR 1956 USA I NBOLT ATT I C 6 Notify 21 Specialty 54 Smooth man likes having food and drink just out 38 TONGA USUALFARE 7 24 Cartoonist Addams Word repeatedly 55 of his reach.’’ Pastures sung after Lighten up? POMPS BLARED 25 Daily Question: You hold: ä A K 10 6; × AJ;μ 86532;å AQ.You open one diamond, BAS I N SAR I 8 Brother of Cain Pack down “She loves you …” 56 Quaff for Beowulf 26 your partner responds one heart, you bid one spade and he jumps to 3NT. What do you SEAS BOSC ARTSY and Abel Detestation 39 “___ amis” 57 Bone next to say? PAR USBPORT ATE 9 Book after 27 ___ knife 40 the radius ARSON LYLE ULEE Opposite of exit Answer: Partner has at least 13 points, maybe as many as 16, hence slam is possible. IRAE DANSK Deuteronomy 29 Japanese mushroom 41 Deals at a dealership 58 Gorilla pioneering You shouldn’t bid slam because the poor quality of your long suit is a minus, but you MI LLER MOORE 10 Person getting 30 Grand ___ (wine of 46 Partner of balances in sign language must make a try. Raise to 4NT (not ace-asking since no trump suit is agreed, but USERSFEES I PADS on-the-job training the highest rank) 47 59 GET I T USHERED I N Girl’s show of respect Knievel of ‘‘quantitative’’). Let partner decide. GROGS RAIL NINA 11 Snopes.com subject 31 Eskimo home 48 Cell centers motorcycle stunts Tribune Content Agency YENS OINK SOAP 12 Upfront stake 32 Stick together 52 Twists, as facts 60 Make over ... 18 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES

BusinessAsia WITH In race to cut costs, solar companies turn to robots

RICHMOND, CALIFORNIA single cents per watt, so by allowing such a dramatic decrease in overall power plant costs, we are bringing a lot Automation push fueled of value to the market,’’he said. The sys- by need to compete with tems are now installed at five farms in the United States and Japan, with more low price of natural gas scheduled to go in before the end of the year. BY DIANE CARDWELL Alion’s installation system is de- signed to work on uneven ground, exec- In a dusty yard under a blistering Au- utives said, cutting down on the need to gust sun, Rover was hard at work, lifting level acres of fields. First, a machine solar panels off a stack and installing used to lay sidewalks and gutters spits them, one by one, in a concrete track. A out a long concrete track. After the track few yards away, Rover’s companion, sets, Rover, which resembles an indus- Spot, moved along a row of panels, trial warehouse cart on caterpillar washing away months of grit, then tracks, installs the panels and glues squeegeeing them dry. But despite the them in place. Human workers then heat and monotony — an alternative- wire the panels into the system. energy version of lather-rinse-repeat — Spot can be controlled with a smart- neither Rover nor Spot broke a sweat or phone and runs on a solar-powered bat- uttered a complaint. They could have tery. It rolls along rails, squirting water kept at it all day. on the panels and cleaning them with a That is because they are robots, sur- spinning brush and a squeegee. It also prisingly low-tech machines that a start- has a standard hedge trimmer attach- up company called Alion Energy is bet- ment that can cut vegetation. ting can automate the installation and The promise of automation is not only maintenance of large-scale solar farms. to reduce the cost of labor but also to cut Working in near secrecy until re- construction time — to 12 weeks from cently, the company, based in Richmond, six to eight months in some cases — California, is ready to use its machines in which also reduces the amount of time three projects in the next few months in developers would be accumulating in- California, Saudi Arabia and China. If all terest on a loan, said Mark Kingsley, the goes well, executives expect that they chief executive at Alion. can help bring the price of solar electric- ‘‘Like most industries, when you ity into line with that of natural gas by really do disruptive change of cost, you cutting the cost of building and main- change materials and you change taining large solar installations. design concept,’’ said Mr. Kingsley, who In recent years, the solar industry has was chief commercial officer of the wrung enormous costs from developing Chinese panel-maker Trina Solar and farms, largely through reducing the led the robotics unit at ABB, a Swiss price of solar panels more than 70 per- power and automation technology gi- cent since 2008. But with prices about as ant. ‘‘And that’s what we did: We low as manufacturers say they can go, JIM WILSON/THE NEW YORK TIMES changed materials from steel to con- the industry is turning its attention to Jess Crowe, a worker with the energy firm Alion, overseeing a robot named Rover as it installs solar panels in California. Solar energy firms say robots are crucial to the industry. crete and we changed the methodology finding savings in other areas. from manual to automation.’’ ‘‘We’ve been in this mode for the past The company has attracted some pos- decade in the industry of really just fo- tem costs in 2013, down from 53 percent sition. In an expensive, time-consuming task often falls to crews of workers driv- trols tracking operations, moving along itive attention from analysts. ‘‘What’s cusing on module costs because they in 2010, while labor, engineering and process that can demand hundreds of ing along the rows of panels, which can an array and tilting the panels to follow exciting with Alion is that they’ve auto- used to be such a big portion of system permitting rose to 15 percent from 9 per- hands and millions of screws, workers stretch for miles, to clean or trim around the sun and maximize their output. Get- mated the entire process,’’ said Vishal costs,’’said Arno Harris, chief executive cent in the same time period, according clear and level the ground, drive in met- each one. ting as much as 40 percent more elec- Sapru, energy and environment re- of Recurrent Energy, a solar farm de- to Greentech Media, which tracks the al posts and attach and wire the heavy, Several companies are developing or tricity out of each panel than a fixed- search manager at the business consult- veloper and chairman of the Solar En- industry. glass-encased modules. Projects can selling robots to aid in the installation or angle system, said Wasiq Bokhari, the ing firm Frost & Sullivan, which re- ergy Industries Association. Now, Mr. For all that the industry promotes its frequently run into delays when, say, cleaning of solar arrays, including the company’s chief executive, allows de- cently gave Alion an award for Harris said, ‘‘Eliminating the physical innovations, the business of mounting the wrong bolts show up at the site. Swiss outfit Serbot, which also makes velopers to build smaller, cheaper sys- innovation. plant costs is a major area of focus panels on the ground has remained After the panels are installed, it can be robots that can wash the windows of tems to meet their energy production ‘‘The goal is not robotics’’ but to beat through eliminating materials and elim- largely the same for years, a process ad- expensive to keep them free of the dirt glass skyscrapers. targets. the price of natural gas, Mr. Kingsley inating labor.’’ apted from smaller rooftop arrays that or growing vegetation that can block Another start-up based in California, ‘‘The solar market is very competi- said. ‘‘You have to be lean and pretty Modules dropped to 35 percent of sys- use metal racks to hold the panels in po- sunlight and reduce their output. That QBotix, has developed a robot that con- tive, and people literally fight over low cost to meet that.’’

Facebook 3 American scholars given buys Israeli Nobel in economic science software firm WASHINGTON BY BINYAMIN APPELBAUM Compression technique Three American professors — Eugene from Onavo will be used F. Fama, Lars Peter Hansen and Robert J. Shiller — were awarded the Nobel to broaden access to Web Memorial Prize in Economic Science on Monday for competing theories about BY VINDU GOEL the movements of asset prices. The three men, who worked inde- Facebook announced early on Monday pendently, were described as having that it had acquired Onavo, a three- collectively illuminated the financial year-old start-up that makes data com- markets by showing that stock and YALE UNIVERSITY, VIA EPA pression software and offers a variety of bond prices moved unpredictably in the analytic services for smartphone appli- short term but with greater predictabil- cations. ity over longer periods. The prize com- The purchase of Onavo, which has mittee said these findings showed that about 40 employees, gives Facebook, markets were moved by a mix of ration- the world’s biggest social networking al calculus and human behavior. company, its first office in Israel. The decision to honor Mr. Fama and Most of Facebook’s employees work Mr. Shiller as contributors to a shared at its headquarters in Menlo Park, Cali- understanding of financial markets, fornia, and historically, the company however, papered over differences in has sought to pull workers at acquired their work that have been enormously companies into the mother ship. But as consequential in recent years. Mr. Fama part of the sale, which was for an undis- was honored for his work in the 1960s closed price, Onavo appears to have cut showing that market prices are accur- UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO, VIA EPA a deal to keep most of that firm’s em- ate reflections of available information. ployees in Tel Aviv. Mr. Shiller was honored for circumscrib- The big draw for Facebook is Onavo’s ing that theory in the 1980s by showing pioneering data compression technol- that prices deviate from rationality. ogy, which helps smartphones cut data The difference in a nutshell? consumption as much as 80 percent. Mr. Shiller issued prescient warnings Such compression is vital to the goals of about the housing bubble, while Mr. an organization started by Facebook’s Fama continued to insist, even after the chief executive, Mark Zuckerberg, in financial crisis, that prices had been ra- August that is trying to offer mobile In- tional. ‘‘I don’t even know what a bubble ternet access free or at very low cost to means,’’ he said in 2010. the about four billion people globally Mr. Hansen was honored for technical who do not have it. contributions that have made it easier to ‘‘We expect Onavo’s data compres- evaluate reasons for the movement of UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO, VIA EPA sion technology to play a central role in asset prices. His work has helped ex- From top, Robert J. Shiller, a professor at our mission to connect more people to pand the extent to which rational consid- Yale University; and Eugene F. Fama and the Internet, and their analytic tools will erations can explain price movements. Lars Peter Hansen, who are both profes- help us provide better, more efficient Mr. Fama and Mr. Hansen are profes- sors at the University of Chicago. mobile products,’’ a Facebook spokes- sors at the University of Chicago; Mr. man said. Shiller is a professor at Yale University. Guy Rosen, co-founder and chief ex- Their work ‘‘laid the foundation for the index funds that invest in broad, diversi- ecutive of Onavo, said that his company current understanding of asset prices,’’ fied baskets of equities and other assets. would largely function as a stand-alone according to a statement from the Royal Mr. Shiller, 67, introduced in the early entity, much like two previous Facebook Swedish Academy of Sciences, which 1980s an important caveat to the idea acquisitions, Instagram and Parse. awards the annual prize. that markets operate efficiently, finding (Snaptu, another Israeli start-up with Mr. Fama, 74, was honored for show- that stock and bond prices show greater innovative data compression technol- ing that asset prices are ‘‘extremely predictability over longer periods. Mr. ogy, was absorbed into Facebook after it hard to predict over short horizons.’’His Shiller and other economists see evi- was purchased in 2011, and its technol- work, beginning in the 1960s, showed dence that these movements cannot be ogy forms the basis of the company's that asset prices moved efficiently in the entirely explained by rational decision- Facebook for Every Phone software for short term, quickly incorporating new making, and instead reflect the irration- more basic phones.) information and leaving little opportuni- al behavior of investors. ‘‘We’re excited to join their team and ty for predictable profits. In 2000, Mr. Shiller published ‘‘Irra- hope to play a critical role in reaching The theory basically asserted, in the tional Exuberance,’’ which detailed his one of Internet.org’s most significant words of the economist Burton G. Malk- view that stocks had become overvalued. goals — using data more efficiently, so iel, that ‘‘a blindfolded monkey throw- The market crashed soon thereafter. that more people around the world can ing darts at a newspaper’s financial Mr. Shiller’s work does not contradict connect and share,’’ Mr. Rosen wrote in pages could select a portfolio that would Mr. Fama’s findings about the short- a blog post announcing the sale. ‘‘When do just as well as one carefully selected term movement of stock prices. But it the transaction closes, we plan to con- by experts.’’ has helped to underpin a new genera- tinue running the Onavo mobile utility It has influenced the way many people tion of economic research into the me- apps as a stand-alone brand.’’ invest, contributing to the popularity of chanics of bubbles. ... INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | 19 economy media business WITH

Markets Inflation up unsettled as in China on Washington increase in at standstill food prices

HONG KONG BEIJING Most indicators slip Few expect central bank as week begins with no to tighten credit with rate progress on debt limit still below official target

BY BETTINA WASSENER REUTERS With just days until a crucial deadline China’s annual consumer inflation rate for raising the U.S. debt ceiling, stock rose to a seven-month high of 3.1 per- markets in Asia started the week with cent in September, as poor weather modest declines, as investors con- drove up food prices, limiting room for sidered the global financial devastation the central bank to maneuver to support of a U.S. debt default. the economy, and exports unexpectedly Talks in Washington over the week- declined. end did not produce an agreement on But few analysts expect a further restoring government operations or in- sharp rise in inflation or policy tighten- creasing the nation’s debt limit. Raising ing in coming months as China faces a the limit is seen as vital to allowing the weak global environment and Beijing government to pay its bills. tries to reduce credit-fueled invest- Although many analysts expect a res- ment. olution to the political impasse before The inflation rate was higher than a Thursday, there is considerable worry median forecast of 2.9 percent in a Reu- among world leaders and investors that ters poll and the 2.6 percent rate posted the brinkmanship in Washington could in August, but it was still below the offi- result in a partial debt default, and that cial target of 3.5 percent for 2013. any extension of the debt-limit deadline Zhiwei Zhang, China economist in would merely defer the underlying Hong Kong for Nomura, said that he ex- problems. pected inflation to rise further in the Analysts at Citigroup, for example, KENA BETANCUR/GETTY IMAGES-AFP fourth quarter and saw ‘‘rising risks wrote in a research commentary on Tourists riding a ferry to visit the Statue of Liberty over the weekend. The State of New York agreed to shoulder the costs of running the site during the federal government shutdown. that it may rise above 3.5 percent for Monday that ‘‘our central case is that some months in 2014.’’ some sort of solution using prioritization Month-on-month, consumer prices and delayed payments will avert the rose 0.8 percent, the National Bureau of risk’’ of a default. They emphasized that Statistics said. Food prices increased 1.5 the side effects of the crisis should not be percent in September from August as a underestimated. ‘‘A chronic inability to Urgent pleas to end fiscal impasse result of droughts and floods in some manage the political policy process areas, pushing consumer inflation up alongside a high public debt burden and 0.51 percentage point, Yu Qiumei, a se- rising structural deficits is likely to leave FUND, FROM PAGE 1 ‘‘spending huge amounts of time and of optimism, after Republicans in the ing on the sovereign debt markets, said nior statistician at the bureau, said in a the economy vulnerable to significant a meeting of the Institute of Internation- money and effort to be prepared.’’ House of Representatives took the first it had been planning for any market dis- statement. In annual terms, food prices periodic downturns,’’ they said. al Finance also being held in Washing- Many of the high-ranking officials steps toward a compromise. But that op- ruptions. Mr. Kim of the World Bank jumped 6.1 percent. Amid the uncertainty, stock indexes ton. ‘‘The consequences of this would be present in Washington for the meetings timism faded over the weekend. On Sun- said that the U.S. flirtation with default China’s exports dropped 0.3 percent in the Asia-Pacific region mostly edged absolutely disastrous.’’ made open appeals to Congress, with day, with negotiations in the Senate in 2011 had raised borrowing costs for in September from the level of a year lower on Monday. The Straits Times in- Mr. Lew acknowledged the threat. warnings coming from many of Wash- stalled, the value of the dollar was sliding. many poor countries. dex in Singapore fell 0.5 percent, the ‘‘Our work begins at home,’’ he said. ington’s allies and creditors. Ms. It was falling further Monday. Much of the attention has been on the Drought and flooding pushed Taiex in Taiwan closed down 0.9 percent ‘‘We recognize that the United States is Lagarde’s counterpart at the World In the Asia-Pacific region Monday, enormous outstanding pool of Treasury up the cost of food last month and the Kospi in South Korea slipped 0.2 the anchor of the international financial Bank, the American physician Jim Yong stock indicators fell in Australia, Singa- bonds and bills. Short-term government percent. system. With the deepest and most li- Kim, said the world was ‘‘days away pore, South Korea and Taiwan. Markets bills are used to grease the wheels for at an annual rate of 6.1 The S.&P./ASX 200 in Australia fell 0.4 quid financial markets, when risk rises, from a very dangerous moment.’’ in Hong Kong, Indonesia and Japan many financial transactions and percent, the government said. percent. Markets in Hong Kong, Japan the flight to safety and to quality brings ‘‘The closer we get to the deadline, were shut for holidays. provide a benchmark from which other and Indonesia were closed for holidays. investors to U.S. markets. But the the greater the impact will be for the de- On Monday, all eyes in the American assets are priced. If the value of that European stock indicators were United States cannot take this hard- veloping world,’’ he said. and European markets were likely to be debt were suddenly drawn into ques- earlier, against expectations of a 6 per- mixed in late afternoon trading, with the earned reputation for granted.’’ Fahad Almubarak, governor of the focused on the negotiations in Congress. tion, markets could quickly seize up. cent rise, data showed on Saturday. DAX in Frankfurt and CAC 40 in Paris Participants at the meetings remained Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, said, Big companies plan to announce Money market funds, the popular mu- Deflation in prices of goods leaving down 0.1 percent each, while the FTSE on edge, given the gravity of the threat. ‘‘Urgent political agreements on budget quarterly results this week, normally a tual funds that own large amounts of the factory gate eased further in 100 in London was up 0.3 percent. Ms. Lagarde said ‘‘that lack of certainty, and debt issues are necessary to pre- significant event for Wall Street. But Treasury bills, have been selling those September, although in annual terms Wall Street started the day lower, that lack of trust in the U.S. signature’’ serve and, indeed, reinforce the modest that is likely to attract little attention un- that are scheduled to pay out in late Oc- prices still recorded a 19th consecutive with the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock in- would disrupt the world economy. recovery.’’ And Yi Gang, deputy gov- til the political negotiations are settled. tober and November. fall. Producer prices fell 1.3 percent dex dropping half a percent. Wolfgang Schäuble, the German fi- ernor of China’s central bank, said the There has been much debate about Anshu Jain, the co-chief executive of from a year earlier, a smaller fall than Stocks in mainland China bucked the nance minister, issued his own urgent fiscal uncertainties ‘‘must be addressed how quickly problems will ripple Deutsche Bank, said on the internation- the 1.4 percent expected by the market overall weak trend, with the Shanghai appeal. ‘‘The fiscal standoff has to be re- promptly.’’ through the economy before and after al institute panel that his executive team and the 1.6 percent drop in August. composite index closing up 0.4 percent solved without delay,’’ he said in a state- Concern about the impasse has the deadline. The Treasury Department had been trying to make contingency There was some relief, however, for after economic data for September, re- ment released by the I.M.F. already led to a slide in stocks — includ- will continue to take in money and plans in case of a default, but it had manufacturers struggling to cope with leased over the weekend and on Mon- Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of ing the worst two-day decline in might be able to pay its bills for as long struggled to come up with measures profit-eating price declines, as producer day, offered mixed signals on the JPMorgan Chase, painted a bleak pic- months. American economic confidence as two weeks. Some House Republicans that would significantly stem the losses. prices rose 0.2 percent from August. strength of the Chinese economy. ture of the days ahead if there were no has taken the worst hit since the col- have said that even if the Treasury ‘‘You don’t want to go into all of it,’’ he After slowing in nine of the past 10 Exports slipped 0.3 percent from a resolution. ‘‘As you get closer to it, the lapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. And misses some payments, it will have said. ‘‘This would be a very rapidly quarters, the economy looks to have sta- year earlier, according to figures re- panic will set in and something will hap- investors have dumped certain short- enough money to avoid defaulting on its spreading fatal disease.’’ bilized since midyear after Beijing acted leased Saturday. And inflation data re- pen,’’ Mr. Dimon said at the internation- term U.S. Treasury debt because of debt, the most frightening outcome for to head off a sharper downturn with in- leased Monday showed consumer al institute event. ‘‘I don’t personally fears that the Treasury might not pay financial markets. Annie Lowrey reported from Washing- creased spending on public housing prices had risen 3.1 percent, compared know when that problem starts.’’ them back on time. The I.M.F., which lends to govern- ton, and Nathaniel Popper from New construction, railroads and tax cuts for with a year earlier. He added that JPMorgan had been Markets ended last week with a burst ments that have trouble finding financ- York. smaller firms. Bucking a trend, a leaner Times looks for global growth

NEW YORK attract paying international readers of production and was working on 2012 was blocked by the Chinese gov- and expand into video. things like original series; long-form ernment shortly after it started, after BY CHRISTINE HAUGHNEY ‘‘If we can get the combination of the documentaries; a ‘‘news minute’’ to be the paper printed articles embarrassing new products that we’re doing and the shown three times a day; and videos to to government officials. While some newspaper companies have international strategy to significantly support important articles. The Times will also try to generate spent recent years shifting their empha- increase consumer revenue, that could The Times’s longer-term financial revenue by offering new types of sub- sis to other types of investments like be of real significance,’’ Mark goal is to attract international paying scription products focused on news television, The New York Times Com- Thompson, The Times Company’s pres- subscribers. Mr. Thompson said that 15 summaries, editorials and food. The pany has taken a different path. It has ident and chief executive, said in a re- million to 20 million unique internation- first one, expected to begin next spring, been selling off its peripheral assets and cent interview. al users visit The Times’s Web site will offer access to top news. The concentrating on its flagship newspaper The plans vary from news-based monthly and about 10 percent of The product, referred to internally as ‘‘Need and Web site. products, like video, mobile apps and Times’s subscribers are foreign, per- to Know,’’ has experienced some grow- Regional newspapers: gone. Its expanded international coverage, to centages he hopes to increase. ing pains. The goal was to attract about stakes in the Boston Red Sox and the tangential revenue producers like one- The global strategy got a kick-start on 250,000 users who would pay $8 a New England Sports Network: gone. day conferences and cruises featuring Tuesday with the first issue of The In- month. After several months of work, About.com: history. The Boston Globe: Times reporters and columnists as ex- ternational New York Times, rebranded though, it was determined that those sold at a steep loss. pert speakers. Mr. Thompson stressed from The International Herald Tribune. targets were unrealistic for a phone- When the sale of The Globe closes this that many of the initiatives involve and The effort involves a significant integra- only app and that the Web component month, the company will have shed its depend on using Times journalists and tion of the company’s resources around needed to be substantially bolstered. last major outside holding and essen- building the efforts around them. the world; the Times and International The Times is also greatly expanding tially stripped down to its central ‘‘The last thing in the world we want Herald Tribune staffs, long separate, its live event and conference business, product — New York Times journalism. is the business side trying to invent have essentially merged, with reporting and in 2014 will offer about 20 events, in On Tuesday it introduced The Interna- journalistic product,’’ he said. ‘‘The fu- lines directly to New York. Top editors conjunction with The International New tional New York Times, a central com- ture of journalism needs to be figured JABIN BOTSFORD/THE NEW YORK TIMES have been deployed from New York to York Times, compared with one in 2011; ponent of a stepped-up global growth out in the newsroom of The New York The New York Times headquarters. The company is shifting from a news organization offices in Paris, London and Hong it hopes to create a revenue stream that, strategy. Times, not in the ad department.’’ that survived mostly on advertising to one relying on circulation and consumer products. Kong. while modest, will be sustainable year The moves signal a major change for But the financial challenges that have Larry Ingrassia, assistant managing after year. The Times, which has become smaller battered the industry remain as daunt- editor for new initiatives, said that while While these initiatives are taking as it has sold investments and trimmed ing as ever, and The Times is making declines for the past six quarters. the paper would feature ‘‘minor design people from both the business depart- its staff. After the sale of the New Eng- these changes under the impatient Alan D. Mutter, a newspaper consul- The Times has sold off changes,’’ The Times was more focused ment and the newsroom, Jill Abramson, land Media Group — led by The Globe, watch of Wall Street, which measures tant who writes the Reflections of a its peripheral investments on attracting more international digital the paper’s executive editor, said she Boston.com, The Worcester Telegram & success in quarters, not years. Newsosaur blog, said, ‘‘The uniqueness and trimmed its staff. subscribers, whom he described as ‘‘the did not think the strategy had placed un- Gazette and Globe Direct, a direct-mail ‘‘In 2014, we are going to start looking of The New York Times is a rare and un- political, business and cultural elite of due pressure on the newsroom staff and marketing company — it will have at whether some of these investments matchable asset.’’ the world.’’ that it stood ‘‘a very good chance of suc- about 3,500 employees, fewer than half are going to be successful,’’ said Alexia ‘‘But the power of the asset will not be cash on hand. And it has diligently cut Still, it is not easy to get the world’s cess.’’ the number it had two years ago and S. Quadrani, an analyst at JPMorgan sufficient to help it grow and thrive if the costs, trimming administrative ex- wealthy elite to pay for news. Paul ‘‘I feel that the newsroom is a reliable nearly a quarter of the company’s size Chase. primary reliance is on print revenue,’’ penses 40 percent since 2006. That has Rossi, managing director for the Amer- and good partner in trying to find new in 2002. When the deal closes, the com- Times executives have been clear he continued. helped the paper avoid more significant icas of The Economist, said that the ways to expand our readership,’’ Ms. pany will be down nearly $400 million in that they see trouble spots ahead. The Still, The Times has plenty of re- layoffs and relieved some of the pressure market for paying subscribers was Abramson said. ‘‘The strategy of The annual revenue from the nearly $2 bil- company still relies on its printed edi- sources to build on. The company re- from Wall Street, which in 2009 sent the smaller than companies think. New York Times for as long as I have lion it posted in 2012. tion for the vast majority of its revenue. mains profitable and in 2012 reported company’s stock price below $4 on fears ‘‘It’s not just reading English to the worked here has been that quality jour- The bigger shift for The Times has According to its second-quarter earn- net income of $133 million. Digital sub- that it might be forced into bankruptcy level of The Times or The Economist nalism pays. I think that’s been a very been from a news organization that sur- ings report, print advertising generated scriptions bought directly from The (shares closed at $12.50 on Friday). that takes a lot of people out of the mix,’’ good basic strategy.’’ vived primarily on advertising — it gen- about 75 percent of total ad revenue and New York Times have been steadily The Times will try to capture one of Mr. Rossi said. ‘‘What problem does Like Ms. Abramson, Mr. Thompson erated $900 million in ad revenue last digital advertising less than 25 percent. rising and currently stand at about the few growth areas in advertising: The New York Times solve for someone said that he believed Times readers year, compared with $2 billion in 2002 — On the circulation side, print sub- 700,000. In the past five years, through video content. Rebecca Howard, the who is smart, Internet-savvy and living would still pay for high-quality news to one relying on circulation and con- scribers generated 84 percent of reven- March 2013, Sunday circulation for com- general manager of the video depart- in Mumbai?’’ and that the company ‘‘should be work- sumer products. Many of the company’s ue. bined print and digital editions grew 57 ment, said that since her arrival in Indeed, the sensibilities of foreign ing on the business model of high-qual- major initiatives involve shifting from a Craig A. Huber, an independent re- percent, to 2.3 million, and Monday March her unit had added 17 employees governments and their citizens may not ity journalism.’’ reliance on advertising, which for so search analyst with Huber Research through Friday circulation grew 73 per- and was being given the resources to be align with the newspaper’s strategy. He added: ‘‘I cannot see a future for long was its lifeblood. Partners, noted that even as readers cent, to 1.9 million readers, according to more self-sufficient. Plans for revenue-generating foreign- The New York Times Company in say- The company has announced plans to had migrated to digital products, The the Alliance for Audited Media. Ms. Howard said the department had language Web sites have had a bumpy ing, ‘Well, actually the way we make introduce new subscription products, Times had reported digital advertising The company has nearly $1 billion in several dozen videos in various stages start. A Chinese-language site started in money is not through journalism.’’’ ... 20 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES dealbook finance companies business WITH

the 1997-98 crisis and equivalent to 4.4 percent of gross domestic product. Indonesia Indonesia has Asia’s worst-perform- Hedge-fund manager puts art up for sale ing currency; the rupiah is down 16 per- cent against the dollar so far this year. struggles to ‘We suffer from the resources curse,’’ Window on said Thee Kian Wie, an economist with the Indonesian Institute of Sciences. Wall Street shed ‘curse’ ‘‘We are still like the Netherlands In- dies.’’ Drawing parallels with the colo- nial economy during three centuries of PETER LATTMAN Inside the Dutch rule might seem harsh, but there AND CAROL VOGEL is little argument that Indonesia has Markets reached a stage where it is in danger of falling into the ‘‘middle income trap.’’ NEW YORK In recent months, as his le- ‘‘We cannot continue to only rely on gal troubles have deepened, the billion- RANDY FABI these raw materials and the cheap aire hedge-fund manager Steven A. Co- AND JONATHAN THATCHER labor,’’ Finance Minister Muhammad hen has sold stocks to meet withdrawal Chatib Basri said at a regional summit REUTERS requests from skittish investors. meeting last week. ‘‘It is very hard for Now, in addition to stocks, Mr. Cohen BANDUNG, INDONESIA In Trisula In- Indonesia to compete with Bangladesh is selling significant works of art from ternational’s airplane-hangar-size fac- with cheap garments. But we can move his celebrated collection. tory outside this western Indonesian into the next stage of development by Mr. Cohen has put two major paint- city, hundreds of workers stitch togeth- introducing design and fashion.’’ ings by Andy Warhol and an abstract er clothes for some of the world’s top Garments and textiles are Indone- canvas by Gerhard Richter up for sale, brands. Amid the clatter of their ma- sia’s biggest manufactured export according to art experts familiar with chines are hopes for a renaissance that earners, and within this category cloth- his holdings who requested anonymity can restore Indonesia’s place among ing accounts for more than half. because they were not authorized to Asia’s big manufacturing economies, a Industry executives fear Indonesian speak publicly. Sotheby’s will auction status it lost in the mid-1990s. manufacturers are being priced out at the works at next month’s contempor- As Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s biggest the bottom end of the market and lack ary art auction in New York. economy, slows, its current account defi- the polish to compete at the high end. The two Warhols, both painted in 1963, cit widens and the rupiah tumbles, policy While commodities account for more are ‘‘Liz #1 (early Colored Liz),’’ an im- makers are hoping factories like this will than 60 percent of exports, manufac- age of Elizabeth Taylor on a bright yel- emerge as a new export engine. tured exports have been stagnant at low background estimated to sell for $20 But this year, Trisula, whose clients about 30 percent. Trade Minister Gita million to $30 million, and ‘‘5 Deaths on include the German luxury clothing Wirjawan wants to see that change. Turquoise (Turquoise Disaster),’’ brand Hugo Boss, shelved plans to buy ‘‘Fifty-fifty would be nice, but that’ll thought likely to bring in $7 million to machinery to increase production 25 take some time,’’ Mr. Gita said. ‘‘The end $10 million. Sotheby’s featured the War- STEFAN WERMUTH/REUTERS percent, fearing a squeeze on profit game is to make sure hols last week at the Katara Art Center ‘‘Liz 1 (early Colored Liz)’’ a 1963 Andy Warhol image of Elizabeth Taylor that is owned by the billionaire Steven A. Cohen, on display margins from higher wages. ‘‘We cannot that we are able to get in Doha, Qatar, where it was showing at Sotheby’s in London. It is scheduled to be auctioned next month in New York, with a value estimated at $20 million to $30 million. ‘‘A lot of people aren’t expanding in a continue to through the middle highlights from next month’s event. big way because they are concerned income trap and that People familiar with Mr. Cohen’s col- about the rising wages,’’ said Lalit only rely on can only be done by lection said that these paintings were two of 11 former SAC employees who case against SAC took a more serious Matai, director of marketing at Trisula. these raw way of basically part of a larger group of his works be- Because Mr. Cohen owns his have been tied to insider trading while turn when Mr. Martoma was arrested, The company’s struggle to grow as materials and climbing up the value ing put up for auction. firm, any fine would effectively at the hedge fund; six of them have Mr. Cohen bought Picasso’s ‘‘Le Rêve’’ workers demand more pay reflects a the cheap chain.’’ Mr. Cohen has hundreds of works in come out of his pocket. pleaded guilty to criminal charges. In from the casino owner Stephen A. broader challenge as Indonesia tries to labor.’’ Although Mr. Chat- his prodigious collection and, in keep- July, Preet Bharara, the U.S. attorney in Wynn for $150 million. wean itself from the boom-to-bust cycle ib speaks of the need ing with his trader’s mentality, buys New York, cited the large number of Also in 2012, he is said to have paid of commodity prices. Exports of pro- to provide macroeco- and sells them with frequency. Owners effectively come out of Mr. Cohen’s guilty pleas by former SAC employees about $120 million for four Matisse cessed and unprocessed natural re- nomic stability and a better investment of fine art also often sell art for tax rea- pocket. SAC has already agreed to pay when he announced the firm’s indict- bronze sculptures of a woman’s back. sources, combined with an influx of for- climate and to streamline regulations, sons, as they can defer their tax liability $616 million to settle two civil insider- ment of SAC. Mr. Cohen owns works as varied as a eign investment, ignited a domestic con- manufacturers feel let down by delays by exchanging one piece for another. trading actions brought by the U.S. Se- Despite SAC’s astounding invest- Jasper Johns ‘‘Flag’’ painting and sumption boom in the country of 250 mil- in such changes. Still, the dispositions come as Mr. Co- curities and Exchange Commission. ment track record — and solid returns Damien Hirst’s shark submerged in a lion people and drove the economy Government stimulus measures this hen faces mounting legal bills and re- Two former SAC portfolio managers, this year — virtually all outside in- tank of formaldehyde and a Claude along at a growth pace of more than 6 year included tax breaks to companies cord penalties that he might be forced to Michael S. Steinberg and Mathew Mar- vestors have asked for their money Monet Impressionist painting. The War- percent. But that model is under pres- in labor-intensive industries, like gar- pay as part of a settlement related to toma, are facing criminal trials on in- back from the fund, whose assets under hols and the Richter canvas certainly sure, as commodity prices flatten or fall, ments and textiles, that export at least criminal insider trading charges brought sider trading charges. management stood at $15 billion at the would not be his first prominent sales. inflation accelerates and the current ac- 30 percent of their production. Auto- against his fund, SAC Capital Advisors. Mr. Steinberg’s trial is scheduled for beginning of the year. Once all of the Last year, he put an abstract painting count gap exposes a structural imbal- makers, too, received a tax holiday and The government has offered the fund a Nov. 18; the government has accused outside investor money is returned, a by Richter on the market, though it ance that economists say strong manu- tax breaks to encourage more exports. deal to resolve the case by pleading him of illegal trading in the technology process that will take several months, failed to find a buyer. And in 2010, he sold facturers could mend. But with elections next year, few ex- guilty and paying a penalty of nearly $2 stocks Dell and Nvidia. In January, SAC will be left managing Mr. Cohen’s Édouard Manet’s ‘‘Self-Portrait With a Indonesia’s current account — the pect further significant measures from billion. Mr. Cohen’s lawyers are in the prosecutors will try Mr. Martoma on fortune, estimated at about $9 billion. Palette’’ for about $29.5 million after widest measure of the flow of goods, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoy- midst of negotiating a possible plea deal charges that he obtained secret results A renowned collector, Mr. Cohen con- having owned it for nearly a decade. services and money in and out of the ono’s government, despite its commit- with prosecutors, though the two sides of drug trials and helped SAC generate tinues to be an influential figure on the country — posted seven consecutive ment to making structural changes. have yet to reach an agreement. gains and avoid losses of $276 million international art scene as he wages ONLINE: DEALBOOK quarters of deficit. The biggest was in Because Mr. Cohen owns 100 percent by trading on that information. battle with the government authorities. Read more about deals and the deal the quarter that ended in June. At $9.8 Randy Fabi and Jonathan Thatcher are of his firm, any fine paid by SAC would Mr. Steinberg and Mr. Martoma are Last November, just days before the makers. nytimes.com/dealbook billion it was the largest since before Reuters correspondents.

For online listings and past performance visit International Funds World markets Monday, Oct. 14 Interest rates For information please contact Clare Chambers United States Last Chg 12 mo.% 10-year govt. Ask yield Chg 12 mo. ago 3-month gov’t Ask yield Chg 12 mo. ago www.morningstar.com/Cover/Funds.aspx Fax +44 (0)20 7061 3529 | e-mail [email protected] October 14, 2013 U.S. Dow Jones indus. 15,159.95 –77.16 +13.8 Britain 2.744% +0.025 1.786% Britain 99.933% unch. 0.443% U.S. S.&P. 500 1,694.33 –8.87 +18.2 France 2.443 –0.009 2.063 France –0.032 –0.068 -0.182 w U.S. S.&P. 100 754.44 –3.29 +14.6 Germany 1.860 +0.007 1.505 Germany –0.013 –0.003 -0.247 U.S. Nasdaq composite 3,777.34 –14.53 +23.9 Japan 0.641 –0.004 0.747 Japan 99.979 unch. n.a. d Ý U.S. NYSE composite 9,713.20 –48.56 +17.6 United States 2.687 +0.029 1.666 United States 0.068 –0.005 0.100 )4JAH=JELA 1LAIJ$AJI U.S. Russell 2000 1,077.83 –6.48 +29.9 1-year gov’t Benchmark rates Last Latest chg d Ý The Americas Britain 0.393% +0.013 0.216% Britain (bank) 0.50% –0.50 (Mar. 5) 0.50% -,, ,- 4605+01, 241.7, Mexico IPC 40,734.63 –240.74 –2.4 d Ý France 0.150 –0.005 0.011 Canada (overnight) 1.00 unch. (May. 14) 1.00 % .)41/6 )55-6 ))/--6 6, m Canada S.&P./TSX 12,892.11 closed +5.4 Germany 0.059 +0.005 -0.042 Euro zone (refinancing) 0.50 –0.25 (May. 7) 0.75 Brazil Bovespa 53,176.26 +26.64 –10.1 w m MMM0A@H5FHEBK@0?D m Japan 0.069 –0.003 0.090 Japanese (overnight) 0.10 unch. (Jun. 25) 0.10 Argent. Merval 5,241.88 unch. +116.8 United States 0.125 +0.002 0.168 United States (prime) 3.25 –0.75 (Dec. 16) 3.25 m Chile Stock Market select 3,830.26 –6.90 –9.9 6 %" #& & & '# $& - EB!FHEBK@(>FAH0?D m Europe and Middle East m Futures Cross rates d Ý Ý m Euro zone Euro Stoxx 50 2,973.08 –1.20 +19.5 m Britain FTSE 100 6,504.19 +17.00 +11.6 Agricultural City Units Delivery Last Chg One One One Swiss Can. '& /-5 ))/--6 d w Ý Germany DAX 8,716.59 –8.24 +19.7 Corn Chicago $/bu Dec. 4.35 +0.01 m $1 €1 £1 ¥100 ruble franc doll. France CAC 40 4,215.75 –4.23 +23.5 Cotton N.Y. $/lb. Oct. 0.83 unch. MMM0CA$I=@LEI!HI0?!$ Australia 1.055 1.433 1.688 1.074 0.033 1.163 1.019 d Ý d Italy FTSE MIB 18,883.76 +1.13 +20.8 Soybeans Chicago $/bu Nov. 12.74 +0.07 Brazil 2.188 2.974 3.502 2.229 0.067 2.412 2.113 Spain IBEX 35 9,677.80 +9.30 +25.1 Wheat Chicago $/bu Dec. 6.89 –0.03 4!@!(CA$I=@LEI!HI0?!$ d Britain 0.625 0.849 - 0.637 0.019 0.689 0.604 d Switzerland SIX 7,913.05 –23.03 +18.9 Rice Chicago $/cwt Nov. 15.18 +0.06 Canada 1.035 1.406 1.657 1.054 0.321 1.141 - w Sweden OMX 30 1,258.11 –8.28 +18.1 Cocoa N.Y. $/ton Dec. 2,715.00 –31.00 d d China 6.107 8.300 9.774 6.222 0.189 6.733 5.899 Russia RTS 1,473.07 –3.93 –1.2 Coffee N.Y. $/lb. Dec. 1.17 unch. w Denmark 5.486 7.458 8.782 5.589 0.170 6.050 5.300 $! 64+),-4 .7,5 Czech Rep. Prague Stock Exch. 966.50 +3.40 –1.9 Sugar N.Y. cts/lb. March 18.97 +0.04 d Ý Israel TA-25 1,295.13 +9.97 +6.4 Euro zone 0.736 - 1.178 0.749 0.023 0.811 0.711 Orange juice N.Y. cts/lb. Nov. 126.55 +0.10 d India 61.550 83.666 98.539 62.720 1.905 67.880 59.446 '# -0 10 5674,-) 564)6-/1+ ))/--6 6, d Asia Japan Nikkei 225 14,404.74 closed +68.5 Metals, energy Japan 98.120 133.39 157.06 - 3.040 108.20 94.790 Aluminum London $/m. ton 3 mo. 188,150 +50 6A4 %"" "& %% !' .=N %"" "& %% % d H.K. Hang Seng 23,218.32 closed +10.6 Mexico 13.053 17.739 20.888 13.300 0.000 14.390 12.606 d Australia All Ordinaries 5,206.47 –22.37 +15.6 Copper N.Y. $/lb. Dec. 3.30 +0.03 Russia 32.279 43.878 51.669 32.900 - 35.590 31.183 MMM0AEIJKH@3=0?!$ d Ý Gold N.Y. $/tr.oz. Dec. 1,283.00 +14.80 Singapore 1.244 1.691 1.991 1.268 0.039 1.372 1.202 d Ý China Shanghai composite 2,237.77 +9.63 +6.4 Palladium N.Y. $/tr.oz. Dec. 715.90 +2.60 S. Africa 9.958 13.532 15.935 10.100 0.309 10.979 9.617 ! 261) .7, ))/--6 m S. Korea Kospi 2,020.27 –4.63 +4.5 d Platinum N.Y. $/tr.oz. Jan. 1,388.00 +12.40 S. Korea 1071.50 1456.17 1714.72 1091.60 33.186 1181.24 1035.19 d India S.&P. CNX Nifty 6,113.60 +17.40 +7.1 MMM0!FJE$=0?!$ "" '# &$#& m Taiwan Taiex 8,273.96 –75.41 +11.0 Silver N.Y. $/tr.oz. Dec. 21.51 +0.25 Sweden 6.477 8.803 10.364 6.599 0.201 7.142 6.255 d Ý Singapore Straits Times 3,165.25 –14.46 +4.4 Brent crude London $/bbl. Nov. 110.01 –1.27 Switzerland 0.907 1.233 1.451 0.924 0.028 - 0.876 m d m Thailand SET 1,459.49 +1.71 +12.7 Light sw.crude N.Y. $/bbl. Nov. 101.35 –0.67 Taiwan 29.358 39.898 46.982 29.900 0.910 32.365 28.354 d m w Ý d Ý Indonesia Jakarta composite 4,519.91 closed +5.5 Natural gas N.Y. $/mln.BTUs 3 mo. 3.80 +0.03 U.S. - 1.359 1.600 1.019 0.031 1.103 0.966 d d Exchange rates d Ý Major currencies $1 Chg. €1 Chg. £1 Chg. Asia (cont.) $1 Chg. €1 Chg. £1 Chg. The Americas $1 Chg. €1 Chg. £1 Chg. # )*576- 2-4.4 6!  #%  m )4JAH=JELA .K@I !B .K@I Singapore dollar 1.244 –0.002 1.691 0.004 1.991 0.004 Argentine peso 5.832 0.002 7.926 0.032 9.331 0.032 r Euro 0.736 –0.003 - - 1.178 unch. Dollar - - 1.359 0.005 1.600 0.005 South Korean won 1071.50 0.550 1456.17 6.000 1714.72 6.130 Brazilian real 2.188 0.015 2.974 0.032 3.502 0.035 m Ý Ý %' 9020 56-9)46 0,1/5 080 d m Pound 0.625 –0.002 0.849 unch. - - Taiwan dollar 29.358 0.031 39.898 0.186 46.982 0.194 Canadian dollar 1.035 unch. 1.406 0.005 1.657 0.006 Swiss franc 0.907 –0.005 1.233 –0.002 1.451 –0.003 Thai baht 31.290 0.030 42.523 0.197 50.064 0.204 Chilean peso 498.62 0.810 677.62 3.590 797.79 3.785 '! 8)-5 418-4 +)216) +420 m d ' Yen 98.120 –0.440 133.39 –0.070 157.06 –0.180 Mexican peso 13.053 0.071 17.739 0.159 20.888 0.176 Europe Venezuelan bolivar 6.284 unch. 8.540 0.031 10.054 0.031 Asia Czech koruna 18.767 –0.059 25.504 0.014 30.027 unch. m Ý d £ m Australian dollar 1.055 –0.002 1.433 0.003 1.688 0.004 Danish krone 5.486 –0.019 7.458 0.003 8.782 0.001 Middle East and Africa % )) /4); Chinese renminbi 6.107 –0.013 8.300 0.012 9.774 0.010 Hungarian forint 217.77 0.750 295.95 2.104 348.43 2.285 Egyptian pound 6.890 unch. 9.364 0.034 11.024 0.034 '$ )8-41+9 +);) !"# '"'5$#& m d Hong Kong dollar 7.754 unch. 10.538 0.039 12.406 0.039 Norwegian krone 5.986 –0.011 8.135 0.015 9.578 0.012 Israeli shekel 3.535 –0.007 4.804 0.008 5.656 0.007 Indian rupee 61.550 0.540 83.666 0.971 98.539 1.126 Polish zloty 3.075 –0.017 4.179 –0.008 4.920 –0.012 Saudi riyal 3.750 unch. 5.096 0.019 6.000 0.019 H>EI 1LAIJ!H 5AHLE?AI 6A=$ % "" '$ ! m Ý d r Indonesian rupiah 11360.0 unch. 15438.2 56.800 18176.0 56.800 Russian ruble 32.279 0.058 43.878 0.248 51.669 0.264 South African rand 9.958 0.114 13.532 0.202 15.935 0.230 ''' 60-4 .7,5 Malaysian ringgit 3.180 0.001 4.322 0.017 5.088 0.017 Swedish krona 6.477 0.003 8.803 0.037 10.364 0.037 w m ! 4*15 18-56 *AH$K@= ""  '$ ! Philippine peso 43.125 0.140 58.607 0.405 69.000 0.439 Turkish lira 1.989 0.009 2.703 0.022 3.182 0.024 r !"# 521)9-4 +)216) /472 w World 100 The companies with the largest market capitalization, listed alphabetically by region. Prices shown are for regular trading. m A‡+ or− ‡ indicates stocks that reached a new 52-week high or low. w MMM0IFE=EAH?=FEJ=40?!$ d Company 52-wk price range Company (Country) 52-wk price range Company (Country) 52-wk price range m '' *)37- ,-/4. w Ý U.S. Last Chg 12 mo.% Low Last (‡) High U.S. (cont.) Last Chg 12 mo.% Low Last (‡) High Europe (cont.) Last Chg 12 mo.% Low Last (‡) High m Ý Abbott Laborat. 33.63 –0.13 –51.6 32.05 72.13 Wal-Mart 73.86 –0.96 –1.5 67.61 79.86 Sanofi (FR) 73.16 –0.21 +9.6 66.07 86.67 m d Ý w Amazon.com 308.3 –2.6 +26.2 220.6 321.0 Walt Disney 66.35 +0.14 +31.8 47.06 67.67 Santander (ES) 6.56 +0.04 +12.3 4.84 6.62 m Apple 495.8 +3.0 –21.1 390.5 666.8 Wells Fargo 41.30 –0.13 +17.4 31.43 44.63 SAP (DE) 53.84 –0.14 –0.3 52.20 64.80 d w AT&T 33.99 –0.21 –6.3 33.11 39.00 Sberbank (RU) 102.8 unch. +11.0 84.3 110.7 m Ý Bank of America 14.08 –0.11 +50.7 8.99 14.95 The Americas Siemens (DE) 91.08 –0.32 +18.2 76.00 91.90 d Ý w Ý Berkshire Hath. 171,850 –1755 +29.2 126,900 178,275 AmBev (BR) 84.90 +0.31 +3.4 76.38 93.80 Statoil (NO) 135.1 unch. –7.8 123.0 147.5 m Ý Caterpillar 85.24 –0.37 +2.9 80.43 99.49 Ame`r. Mo`vil (MX) 13.69 –0.01 –18.1 11.62 17.01 Telefo`nica (ES) 12.52 +0.09 +22.6 9.49 12.04 d w m Chevron 117.3 –0.4 +3.7 101.6 127.8 Bradesco (BR) 31.76 +0.21 +0.6 26.00 38.40 Total (FR) 43.58 –0.04 +12.5 35.25 43.68 '# -0 10 5674,-) 564)6-/1+ ))/--6 6, Cisco Systems 23.19 –0.09 +27.0 16.82 26.38 Ecopetrol (BR) 4,385 unch. –19.2 3,850 5,790 Unilever (GB) 2,385 +9 +3.5 2,266 2,900 d Ý w m Citigroup 48.83 –0.39 +37.5 34.22 53.27 Itau Unibanco (BR) 32.22 +0.13 +8.7 26.80 36.90 Vodafone (GB) 221.5 +1.7 +24.7 154.8 222.3 6A4 %"" "& %% !' .=N %"" "& %% % d Ý Coca-Cola 37.58 –0.19 –1.4 35.97 43.09 Petrobras (BR) 16.96 –0.04 –27.4 13.55 23.68 Volkswagen (DE) 175.1 –0.2 +17.4 138.5 186.7 w Ý w Comcast 46.13 +0.07 +31.3 35.13 45.84 R. Bk of Can. (CA) 68.03 closed +19.8 55.08 66.71 !  /*) 5--+61 ),81545 MMM0AEIJKH@3=0?!$ ConocoPhillips 71.46 –0.25 +26.2 54.59 71.00 Toronto Dom. (CA) 92.51 closed +14.2 78.83 92.74 Asia w r Exxon Mobil 86.85 –0.10 –4.7 85.10 95.20 Vale (BR) 31.16 +0.14 –13.9 26.00 42.60 Agric. Bank (CN) 2.51 unch. +0.8 2.44 3.23 r d General Electric 24.23 –0.17 +7.6 20.01 24.86 Bank of China (CN) 2.83 –0.01 +3.3 2.54 3.22 w Ý Google 870.5 –1.5 +15.8 647.2 924.7 Middle East and Africa BHP Billiton (AU) 35.06 –0.07 +5.4 30.65 39.00 r Ý d Ý £ Home Depot 75.99 –0.34 +28.8 59.01 80.54 Saudi Basic In. (SA)98.00 unch. +9.8 87.00 99.25 CBA (AU) 72.52 +0.20 +27.8 56.55 74.55 w m d IBM 185.4 –0.7 –9.9 178.7 215.8 CCB (HK) 6.04 closed +6.7 5.07 6.71 Ý Intel 23.35 +0.09 +7.7 19.36 25.47 Europe China Life (CN) 14.04 +0.10 –24.2 12.91 21.92 " 24-1-4 18-56-6 .7,5 6, r J&J 88.77 –0.69 +30.6 67.97 94.39 A-B InBev (BE) 72.09 –0.06 +7.1 63.90 78.66 China Mobile (HK) 85.10 closed +0.4 75.10 91.50 w ?=! 200 *!N ? /H=@ +=O$= JPMorgan Chase 51.93 –0.58 +23.3 39.29 56.67 BASF (DE) 71.36 –0.33 +9.9 62.50 75.85 Chi. Shenhua (HK) 23.50 closed –23.8 18.20 35.25 r w Kraft Foods 52.18 –0.16 +12.3 43.66 58.29 BG Group (GB) 1,203 +12 –9.3 1,000 1,350 CNOOC (HK) 15.84 closed +0.4 12.26 17.36 .=N !"# '"' ''! McDonald’s 94.52 –0.22 +2.3 84.05 103.59 BP (GB) 442.9 +3.2 +1.5 416.6 484.5 Honda Motor (JP) 3,915 closed +68.8 2,319 4,275 w Merck 46.64 –0.66 +2.6 40.64 49.44 Brit. Am. Tob. (GB) 3,246 +13 +1.4 3,070 3,784 ICBC (CN) 3.88 –0.01 +1.6 3.74 4.47 m Microsoft 34.02 –0.11 +17.5 26.37 36.27 ENI (IT) 17.41 –0.06 –0.3 15.29 19.48 Mitsubishi UFJ (JP) 636.0 closed +79.2 345.0 732.0 w Occidental Petrol. 94.96 –0.53 +14.9 73.58 95.41 Gazprom (RU) 152.7 –1.0 –1.0 107.2 159.1 NTT (JP) 5,290 closed +39.2 3,575 5,550 m Oracle 33.16 –0.10 +7.9 29.58 36.34 GDF Suez (FR) 19.39 +0.16 +10.9 14.12 19.48 NTT DoCoMo (JP) 1,571 closed –98.7 1,518 165,800 ''# /76-91-4 .,5 ))/--6 )/ d Ý P&G 78.29 –0.19 +15.1 66.32 82.54 Glaxo (GB) 1,560 +6 +9.1 1,322 1,791 PetroChina (HK) 8.91 closed –14.2 7.87 11.28 Pepsico 80.48 –0.35 +15.3 68.02 86.80 HSBC (GB) 690.0 +0.4 +15.3 592.4 770.7 Rio Tinto (AU) 61.65 +0.07 +11.2 50.24 72.07 MMM0CKJ3ME44AH5BK@I0?!$ m d £ Pfizer 28.75 +0.03 +14.5 23.66 31.08 L’Ore`al (FR) 122.9 –2.7 +26.9 95.0 136.7 Samsung El. (KR)1,438,000 –5000 +10.31,217,000 1,576,000 6A40%" $ # %  m d Philip Morris 85.43 +0.40 –6.0 82.39 96.44 LVMH (FR) 144.5 –1.8 +17.5 118.4 149.3 Sinopec (HK) 6.20 closed –20.0 5.08 9.44 Qualcomm 67.57 +0.02 +14.1 57.43 70.09 Nestle` (CH) 61.75 –0.15 +1.0 58.40 69.50 Toyota Motor (JP) 6,410 closed +120.8 2,903 6,640 d m w Ý Schlumberger 89.38 –0.64 +23.4 67.77 90.01 Novartis (CH) 67.85 –0.05 +17.6 55.45 73.65 TSMC (TW) 105.0 –1.5 +22.8 84.8 115.5 United Technol. 106.1 –1.0 +39.4 74.7 112.0 Novo Nordisk (DK) 925.5 +3.5 –0.2 853.5 1,070.0 Westpac Ban. (AU) 32.95 –0.04 +27.7 24.40 34.06 6DA @=J= E JDA EIJ => LA EI JDA =L IKFF EA@ >O JDA BK @ CH KFI J 41/56)4 1J EI ? =JA@ = @ HAB H =JA@ E J JDA EIJ >AB HA >AE C JH= I EJJA@ J JDA 106 6DA 106 HA?AELAI F=O A J BH UPS 90.29 –0.48 +24.9 70.02 91.80 R. Dutch Shell (GB)2,019 +2 –6.6 1,987 2,310 BK @ CH KFI J FK> EID JDEI E B H =JE  41/56)4 = @ JDA 106 @ J M=HH= J JDA GK= EJO H =??KH=?O B JDA EIJ# JDA @=J= B JDA FAHB H = ?A B BE@AI B JDA .K @ /H KFI = @ ME J >A E=> A Verizon 46.84 –0.25 +3.6 41.40 53.91 Roche (CH) 238.7 –0.2 +31.7 174.2 258.5 Data are at 1445 U.T.C. Prices are in local currencies. B H JDA EIJ# JDA @=J= B .K @ /H KF J = O ANJA J 6DA EIJ EI J = @ ID= J >A @AA A@ J >A = BBAH >O JDA 106 H 41/56)4 J IA IA?KHEJEAI H E LAIJ A JI B = O &E @ 1 LAIJ A JI ?= Visa 190.6 –1.6 +37.1 136.5 198.8 Rosneft (RU) 264.9 –0.6 +25.6 208.0 275.4 Source:Reuters Infographicsby:CUSTOMFLOWSOLUTIONS B= =I MA =I HEIA 2=IJ FAHB H = ?A @ AI J CK=H= JAA BKJKHA IK??AII 1J EI =@LEI=> A J IAA& =@LE?A BH = GK= EBEA@ E @AFA @A J =@LEI H >AB HA E LAIJE C

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STOCK INDEXES Germany’s opposition Social Demo- But the center-left can no longer of- REUTERS BREAKINGVIEWS crats have just recorded their second- fer much prospect of a rosier future Center-left worst election result since World War through state intervention. There are II. They now face an ugly choice be- fewer fruits of economic growth to re- +60% tween entering a ‘‘grand coalition’’ un- distribute, globalization continues to For Alitalia, fears of a bridge to nowhere is now adrift der Ms. Merkel on unequal terms; exert downward pressure on wages +40 staying out and seeing her possibly and working conditions in developed While Britain sells a piece of its postal for ¤75 million, or $101 million. The deal team up with the Greens, the Social countries, and the demographics of service, Italy is using its own zombie supposes that the other private share- in Europe Democrats’ natural partner; or being aging societies with shrinking work +20 companies to keep its flagship airline holders will also add some cash. punished by voters at a rerun election. forces make welfare benefits and pen- afloat. Poste Italiane has emerged as the A second unprofitable airline is ex- Socialists or social democrats still sions ever harder to sustain. 0 unlikely rescuer of the airline-cum-fi- actly what Poste Italiane needs. Its head 13 of the 28 European Union gov- Compounding the left’s problems, nancial black hole Alitalia. It is a re- portfolio already includes the cargo and ernments and are in coalition in five some conservative leaders like Ms. versal from Silvio Berlusconi’s messy charter service Mistral Air, created by 2012 2013 others, but they are often driven to pur- Merkel and the Swedish prime minis- effort at saving the company in 2008, but the actor and former professional sue unpopular policies that hit the in- ter, Fredrik Reinfeldt, have success- UNITED STATES S&P 500 52-week the aim is similar: Indulge national swimmer Bud Spencer. The synergies terests of their own electorate. fully occupied the middle ground. 1,694.79 +2.23 +18.3% sensibilities, avoid restructuring and are so great between air and its postal ‘‘It is an extremely difficult balance,’’ Ms. Merkel embraced the phasing out EUROPE DJ Stoxx 50 buy time. business that Poste tried to offload Mis- Paul the Danish prime minister, Helle of nuclear power, increased public 2,970.83 +1.42 +20.9 The details of Alitalia’s rescue by the tral last year. It could model its collab- Thorning-Schmidt, a Social Democrat, spending on child care and family bene- JAPAN Nikkei 225 state postal service are still sketchy. oration on the relationship between Taylor said in an interview. ‘‘We had some re- fits and offered a watered-down form of 14,404.74 +210.03 +67.6 Prime Minister Enrico Letta has been Lufthansa Cargo and DHL Express, al- forms that have been seen as quite a minimum wage to neutralize the cen- shopping around for a solution for some though Alitalia’s weakness in freight harsh, but they have also been neces- ter-left. A lurch to the left did not help CURRENCIES time, as the company’s cash crisis has suggests synergies may be scarce. INSIDE EUROPE sary.’’ the Social Democrats regain much intensified. The airline’s private-sector The secretary of Italy’s center-left ‘‘I think we have found the right for- ground, since core voters are still angry owners — which include its larger rival Democratic Party, Guglielmo Epifani, mula — not to be popular, because we about painful reforms in the past decade 0% Air France-KLM and Italy’s usual fi- described Poste’s deal with Alitalia as a PARIS What is left for Europe’s main- have not actually reached that yet — that cut unemployment benefits and nancial power brokers — were reluc- ‘‘bridge solution.’’ He did not say where stream center-left? but to do the right thing for the coun- raised the retirement age, even though tant to bail out a company that had not the bridge was going. The Italian gov- Socialist and social democratic parties try,’’ she said. these measures are now credited with made a profit in 20 years and had lost 8 ernment seems willing to cede control that shaped the protective European so- Italy’s center-left Democratic Party, restoring German competitiveness. –10 cents of every euro in revenue since to Air France-KLM, but Air France- cial model and ruled much of the Conti- which now heads a shaky left-right co- Reformers like Mr. Cramme of the they invested in it five years ago. Italy’s KLM may insist on a painful restructur- nent a decade ago have been among the alition, bled votes to Policy Network argue that the only sal- economy has been in freefall, but Alit- ing and on moving business to its hubs chief political casualties of the financial ‘‘We had the anti-establish- vation for the left lies in emphasizing alia also lost ground to the nimbler com- in France and the Netherlands. and economic crisis since 2008. More some reforms ment 5-Star protest ‘‘pre-distribution’’ through investment –20 petitors Ryanair and easyJet. In the In many way, Alitalia’s future is still than just a cyclical trough, this may be a movement in a Feb- in child care, education and job train- new rescue, Poste Italiane will buy a 10 up in the air. No one knows where it will that have longer-term decline, because the left has ruary election and is ing, rather than perpetuating blanket percent to 15 percent stake in Aliatalia land. NEIL UNMACK AND OLAF STORBECK lost its political narrative. been seen as riven by factional welfare handouts. 2012 2013 Polling evidence shows that many quite harsh, squabbling. In ‘‘Defending acquired rights may be EURO 52-week young and blue-collar voters, angry but they have Greece, Ireland and legitimate, but it no longer makes you a €1= $1.36 +0.003 +4.8% BAE and EADS should thank Merkel about mass unemployment and gov- also been Spain, center-left catch-all people’s party,’’ Mr. Cramme YEN ernment spending cuts, have deserted necessary.’’ parties are paying a said. ‘‘If you want to be a big-tent party ¥100= $1.02 –0.002 –20.3 When Angela Merkel shot down the ernance structure. The influence of to protest parties of the anti-capitalist high price for having again, you will have to combine reform- merger of European Aeronautic De- European governments was trimmed, POUND hard left or the euroskeptical, anti-im- supported public pay ist elements with social protection.’’ fense & Space and BAE Systems a year bringing the group a step closer to being £1= $1.59 –0.002 –0.6 migrant far right, as the political land- and pension cuts required by interna- This leaves the center-left with awk- ago, it looked as if politics were killing a normal company. Airbus, EADS’s civil scape fragments. tional creditors. ward choices. Its big battalions of sup- industrial logic. Combining the Euro- aviation arm, is benefiting from a cyclic- Others trust middle-of-the-road con- In Britain, the opposition Labour porters tend to be among public employ- COMMODITIES pean aerospace groups would have mit- al upturn. servatives like the German chancellor, Party is still distrusted because it ees and unionized industrial workers igated their respective cyclical vulner- It is unclear how the shares would Angela Merkel, more than the left to presided over a deregulated financial with strong job protection and secure abilities and created significant cost have fared had the deal proceeded. As- run the economy in tough times. And market bonanza that ended in the crash pensions who fear privatization, and synergies. The merged company would sume optimistically that the value of a some have simply stopped voting out of 2008. resist easier hire-and-fire regulations. 0% have been powerful enough to compete merger of the two would have risen in of disillusionment. In France, one of the few countries In some North European countries with Boeing of the United States on an line with their respective shares over Most worryingly, for a movement with an absolute center-left parliamen- like Denmark, social democratic parties equal footing, in both civil and military the past year, and then figure that those born in the 19th century of organized tary majority, the Socialist president, have pinned their fate on embracing an aviation. returns would have been split among labor’s struggle for better working con- François Hollande, is deeply unpopular open, globalized economy and making –20 That may yet prove to be the judg- shareholders 40 percent to 60 percent, as ditions and living standards, the belief as his government dithers between old- social protection more selective. ment of history. But now it looks as if proposed by the merger. Add back cash in collective social progress has lost style tax-and-spend policies and half- ‘‘We are trying to do four things at the shareholders should be grateful for Ms. paid out in dividends and buybacks, and much of its credibility in mature ad- hearted welfare and labor market re- same time,’’ Ms. Thorning-Schmidt said, Merkel’s intervention. BAE shares are there would have been a transfer of ¤5 –40 vanced economies. Income inequality forms, satisfying no one. drawing four points on a piece of paper. up 37 percent in the past year; EADS is billion from EADS to BAE investors. has increased across the West since the With mainstream party membership ‘‘Fiscal constraint — call it auster- up 75 percent. Both have outperformed BAE’s shares are suffering after the 2012 2013 crisis began, according to figures from and funding dwindling in many coun- ity,’’ she said. ‘‘On the other side, their respective local stock markets. company flagged possible problems last the Organization for Economic Cooper- tries, the center-left has rarely kept pace growth measures. Then social welfare OIL Nymex light sw. crude 52-week The collapse of the proposed deal week with key contracts. BAE’s fortunes ation and Development, widening so- with new vectors of political action via for the most in need and the restructur- $101.82 a barrel –1.19 +10.3% forced BAE and EADS to rediscover could improve. Either way, it is clear cial gaps that the left set out to close. social media and grassroots initiatives. ing of our welfare model.’’ GOLD New York their core strengths, and to become that the merger was not the only option ‘‘Social democracy nowadays basic- Some of the center-left’s woes may $1,266.10 a tr. oz.–34.70 –28.4 friendly toward shareholders. Both de- for the companies to create value for ally amounts to the defense of the be temporary. When voters tire of cen- Paul Taylor is a Reuters correspondent. CORN Chicago cided to redistribute cash to investors by their shareholders. OLAF STORBECK status quo and preventing the worst,’’ ter-right governments’ implementing $4.34 a bushel –0.08 –43.9 buying back shares over several years said Olaf Cramme, director of Policy austerity policies, and scandal and at- ONLINE: INSIDE EUROPE — ¤3.75 billion, or $5 billion, worth for Data as of 1445 U.T.C. Network, a study group for progressive trition in office take their toll, the pen- Read past columns by Paul Taylor. Source: Reuters EADS and £1 billion for BAE. EADS For more independent commentary and center-left politics. dulum may swing back. global.nytimes.com/business Graphs: Custom Flow Solutions made progress in revamping its gov- analysis, visit www.breakingviews.com Preparing yourself for the good and the bad of holiday season air travel are closed by the government shutdown, percent increase in T.S.A. misconduct Not so good news: I’ve noticed that On the but I called various national enrollment reports in the 2012 fiscal year. more users enjoying videos or music on centers and was told that interviews Solution: Keep checking to see if your personal devices play them so loudly Road were still being scheduled and conduct- airport or airline has expanded or initi- that they annoy those nearby, even ed, at least at most places. The locations ated PreCheck access. If you don’t now when the user has headphones on. are listed on the Global Entry site. have PreCheck eligibility (Global Entry Solution: The best I can do on this JOE SHARKEY membership makes you eligible, inci- one is to quote the theologian Reinhold T.S.A. PRECHECK Good news: This dentally) check the T.S.A. site to see Niebuhr: ‘‘God, give me the grace to quick-pass airport ‘‘trusted traveler’’ when new enrollment centers will open. accept with serenity the things that As the travel season hits full speed with security program, which the Transpor- As to those rude screeners, my admit- cannot be changed.’’ the holidays on the horizon, here are tation Security Administration has re- tedly imperfect solution is to insist that some of the pros and cons I’ve been no- ferred to as a kind of ‘‘Global Entry a screener barking orders in my face AIRLINES IN GENERAL Good news: ticing on the road lately. Lite,’’ is being aggressively expanded. must also say ‘‘Please’’ and ‘‘Thank Chronic flight delays have disap- The stated goal is to have PreCheck you.’’ But so far, I have resisted the im- peared. Airlines like American are GLOBAL ENTRY Good news: It’s one of operating at 100 airports by the end of pulse to ask the rude ones what kind of buying new planes with more over- the most popular federal programs the year. By then, the agency says, it boot camp they grew up in. head bin space. In international premi- since Social Security, at least for Amer- plans to have 25 percent of the flying um-class travel, meanwhile, the sup- icans who frequently travel interna- public eligible for PreCheck, up from 2 ELECTRONIC DEVICES Good news: A posedly long-gone Golden Age of Fly- tionally and find delight in the way percent a year earlier. PreCheck pas- Federal Aviation Administration advis- ing, I would submit, is now, with lie-flat Global Entry membership allows them sengers get special lanes and don’t ory committee recently issued recom- beds and fancy food and drink. And to breeze back into the country, using a have to do things like take off shoes or mendations that would relax many corporate travel managers are gener- quick-pass kiosk at airports and avoid- remove laptops from bags. And the rules against using personal electronic ally now allowing business travelers to ing long, long lines at customs and im- PreCheck lanes use the old-style met- devices when planes are below 10,000 upgrade to better seats. migration. More good news: The Cus- al-detector portals, rather than those feet, or about 3,000 meters. But the rec- Not-so-good news: Airlines now boast toms and Border Protection agency is much-disliked body-scan machines . ommendations did not include relaxing about their ‘‘up-sell’’ revenues, while making agreements with other coun- Not-so-good news: Enrollment cen- prohibitions on talking on cellphones passengers are confronted with slim tries to allow their citizens to take part. ters for the new phase of PreCheck have during flights. ‘‘Voice is not included in choices for coach seat assignments at Not-so-good news: While the agency been slow to roll out, and I question the the scope of this,’’ Kirk Thornburg, a the posted base fares. More and more, keeps opening new enrollment centers T.S.A.’s optimism about having 25 per- committee member, said in September large areas of the coach cabins are es- at airports and many federal buildings, cent of fliers eligible by January. Also, at the convention of the Airline Pas- sentially roped off for those who choose the program is so popular that lengthy while the agency says it trains screeners senger Experience Association about to buy a better seat for an extra fee. delays have occurred in some places for to act with courtesy — and a great ma- the coming recommendations. I no- Solution: As the Mafia used to say, scheduling interviews. And the govern- jority do just that — I sometimes en- ticed that the people in the room, a pay up if you wish to avoid further dis- ment shutdown seems to have exacer- counter surly screeners who bark orders constituency of airline executives and comfort. bated that problem. at passengers. A recent Government Ac- vendors, practically applauded upon Solution: The agency headquarters countability Office analysis found a 26 hearing this assurance. E-MAIL: [email protected] CHI BIRMINGHAM

Traveler’s forecast 0 High/low temperatures, in degrees Celsius and 10 5 degrees Fahrenheit, and expected conditions. 15 C...... Clouds Sh...... Showers 20 Taking a walk on Sydney’s wild side F ...... Fog S ...... Sun H...... Haze Sn...... Snow 10 In February, Sydney Harbour was learned, is to take a full-day guided hike I...... Ice SS...... Snow showers SYDNEY PC...... Partly cloudy T ...... Thunderstorms 25 named the country’s newest National with Mr. Wells of Sydney Coast Walks R...... Rain W ...... Windy 5 15 Landscape, calling attention to the wild (sydneycoastwalks.com.au). 30 35 0 BY ELAINE GLUSAC Tuesday Wednesday 20 side in Sydney’s metropolitan area of Our full-day walk to Manly (159 Aus- ˚C ˚F ˚C ˚F WIPHA The blue-tongued lizard eyed me suspi- 4.6 million residents. It encompasses a tralian dollars, about the same in U.S. Abu Dhabi 34/22 93/72 S 35/22 95/72 S 25 ciously but remained still long enough 1,600-square-kilometer, or 620-square- dollars, including transportation and Athens 27/18 81/64 S 28/19 82/66 PC Bali 31/24 88/75 S 32/25 90/77 PC 30 for photographs, while a kookaburra mile, expanse of beaches, rivers, is- food) began with a thrilling water-taxi Bangalore 29/19 84/66 T 29/20 84/68 T laughed and a diminutive wallaby lands and bushland, from Royal Nation- ride in the shadow of a towering cruise Bangkok 34/26 93/79 Sh 32/25 90/77 R rustled in the brush. Rock engravings al Park in the south to the Barrenjoey ship and through teeming ferry lanes to Beijing 16/4 61/39 S 18/5 64/41 PC 35 Berlin 14/7 57/45 R 12/7 54/45 C of fish and kangaroo marked ceremoni- Peninsula in the north, the Pacific an exclusive yacht harbor. Brussels 12/6 54/43 Sh 14/9 57/48 C NARI Ocean to the east and Parramatta Park We started on the fringe of Sydney INTERNATIONAL TRAVELER Buenos Aires 26/15 79/59 S 27/15 81/59 C to the west. among tidy beach homes but soon Kolkata 31/25 88/77 T 32/24 90/75 T In a country with an abundance of wil- turned to remote dirt track, where ban- Chengdu 18/12 64/54 R 16/13 61/55 R Chicago 19/10 66/50 T 15/6 59/43 R al sites of Aboriginal ancestors. Scen- derness — including more than 600 na- yan roots snake around boulders, fresh- Dhaka 32/25 90/77 Sh 31/25 88/77 Sh ted forests of eucalyptus and gum trees tional parks — the National Landscapes water streams trickle from fern- Frankfurt 13/7 55/45 R 13/7 55/45 C shaded our path over sandstone and program is designed to help visitors as covered cliffs and piles of oyster shells Geneva 12/10 54/50 R 14/9 57/48 R Hanoi 33/22 91/72 C 24/20 75/68 R Meteorology by AccuWeather. thin topsoil, classic Outback topo- well as locals identify some of Aus- mark ancient Aboriginal dump sites. Helsinki 9/1 48/34 PC 7/1 45/34 S Weather shown as expected graphy surprisingly concealed on the tralia’s unique nature. The program, a We stopped for snacks at a deserted Hong Kong 29/24 84/75 C 27/23 81/73 C at noon on Tuesday. outskirts of Sydney. partnership between Parks Australia pocket beach, then continued upward Hyderabad 30/20 86/68 PC 30/19 86/66 C ‘‘We’re six kilometers from the and Tourism Australia, two government through the coastal gum forest, listen- Islamabad 36/18 97/64 S 35/18 95/64 S COLD WARM STATIONARY COMPLEX TYPHOON Istanbul 21/14 70/57 S 21/17 70/63 T largest city in Australia, but you look organizations, began in 2006. ing to our guide’s encyclopedic identi- Jakarta 34/25 93/77 PC 34/25 93/77 S MOSTLY TROPICAL around, and you’re in the bush,’’ said An extensive ferry system in the har- fication of plant species and their Ab- Johannesburg 24/13 75/55 S 28/16 82/61 S T-STORMS RAIN SHOWERS ICE FLURRIES SNOW HIGH LOW CLOUDY STORM my guide, Ian Wells. bor links Sydney’s central Circular original uses. Karachi 36/25 97/77 S 36/25 97/77 S Kiev 15/11 59/52 Sh 14/7 57/45 Sh Nairobi 30/14 86/57 S 29/13 84/55 PC Shanghai 22/10 72/50 PC 18/11 64/52 C More specifically that August morn- Quay to nearby beach communities like ‘‘I think there are Sydneysiders who Kuala Lumpur 32/23 90/73 T 32/24 90/75 R New Delhi 34/22 93/72 S 35/22 95/72 S Singapore 31/26 88/79 T 31/25 88/77 T ing, my family and I were hiking in the Watsons Bay, a gateway to the South don’t realize there’s this much nature Lagos 29/23 84/73 Sh 29/24 84/75 T New York 22/14 72/57 PC 21/16 70/61 PC Sydney 25/12 77/54 S 30/16 86/61 S suburbs of Sydney on a 12-kilometer, or Head. It was there that my husband, 13- here,’’ Mr. Wells said. London 13/6 55/43 Sh 13/10 55/50 R Nice 21/14 70/57 C 23/16 73/61 S Taipei 27/19 81/66 Sh 23/18 73/64 C Los Angeles 31/16 88/61 S 32/16 90/61 S Osaka 21/17 70/63 R 18/9 64/48 R Tel Aviv 29/19 84/66 S 28/18 82/64 S 7.5-mile, route between Spit Bridge in year-old son and I spent a morning atop The trail gradually re-enters civiliza- Madrid 24/13 75/55 PC 26/13 79/55 S Paris 14/8 57/46 Sh 15/9 59/48 R Tokyo 23/20 73/68 R 22/16 72/61 R Mosman and the beach town Manly, the area’s sandstone cliffs, spying tion at Manly, a resort town, and the Manila 29/23 84/73 T 29/24 84/75 T Riyadh 35/16 95/61 S 34/16 93/61 S Vancouver 14/8 57/46 S 16/8 61/46 S combing the north shore of Sydney humpback whales, soaring albatrosses nearly seven-hour tour concludes with Miami 30/23 86/73 PC 30/24 86/75 PC Rome 22/15 72/59 PC 23/13 73/55 Sh Vienna 17/9 63/48 PC 12/6 54/43 R Moscow 10/6 50/43 C 11/3 52/37 C San Francisco 23/11 73/52 S 23/11 73/52 S Vladivostok 8/0 46/32 PC 8/0 46/32 S Harbour, a natural asset largely unsung and flocks of rainbow lorikeet. But the a 20-minute ferry ride back from breezy Mumbai 30/23 86/73 Sh 30/23 86/73 S Seoul 17/10 63/50 C 17/8 63/46 S Washington 22/16 72/61 PC 24/17 75/63 PC as a coastal wilderness until recently. best way to interpret the bush, we Manly to Sydney’s central docks. .. 22 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 WEATHER / TRAVEL ON PAGE 21 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES . INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | S1 Turning the Page II

CRISTÓBAL SCHMAL

In the early 21st century, we take for granted a pace of change that can leave the near-miraculous Divining the Future of... seeming unremarkable but also upend ways of life with little warning. Here, we peer around the corner at what might be coming next. ADVANCED WIZARDRY John Markoff on the four breakthroughs that will rock your world. PEOPLE’S CHOICE Suzy Menkes on the democratization of fashion. STARS OF THE SCREEN A.O. Scott on what makes a movie. SHARP SPURS Jeré Longman on globalization’sDream Team. OPINION THE CHASM Joseph E. Stiglitz on inequality. SCARCE FOOD Mark Bittman on feeding nine billion people. THE CONTINENT Clemens Wergin on the destiny of Europe. . S2 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES turning the page technology

Anything you can do... Here are several areas in which next- but humanoid — with a few that func- Smart machines will soon be brilliant, generation computing systems and tion like ‘‘transformers’’ from the world accelerating innovation but raising more powerful software algorithms of cinema. The contest, to be held in the could transform the world in the next infield of the Homestead-Miami Speed- the specter of further erosions of privacy half-decade. way, may well have the flavor of the bar scene in ‘‘Star Wars.’’ BY JOHN MARKOFF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE With in- creasing frequency, the voice on the INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION Am- IAN WALDIE/BLOOMBERG NEWS A gaggle of Harry Potter fans descend- other end of the line is a computer. non Shashua, an Israeli computer sci- ed for several days this summer on the It has been two years since Watson, the entist, has modified his Audi A7 by Oregon Convention Center in Portland artificial intelligence program created by adding a camera and artificial-intelli- THE ECONOMICS OF ABSTRACTION for the Leaky Con gathering, an annual I.B.M., beat two of the world’s best gence software, enabling the car to haunt of a group of predominantly ‘‘Jeopardy’’ players. Watson, which has drive the 65 kilometers, or 40 miles, be- TOMAS SEDLACEK Czech economist, author young women who immerse them- access to roughly 200 million pages of in- tween Jerusalem and Tel Aviv without of ‘‘Economics of Good and Evil’’ selves in a fantasy world of magic, spells formation, is able to understand natural his having to touch the steering wheel. and images. language queries and answer questions. In 2004, Darpa held the first of a series Our habitat will be very abstract. Prolong the The jubilant and occasionally squeal- The computer maker had initially of ‘‘Grand Challenges’’ intended to trend from IBM (sold things that you could ing attendees appeared to have no idea planned to test the system as an expert spark interest in developing self-driving knock on) through Microsoft (sells abstract that next door a group of real-world wiz- adviser to doctors; the idea was that cars. The contests led to significant ards was demonstrating technology Watson’s encyclopedic knowledge of technology advances, including ‘‘Traffic software, but you can still box and sell the that only a few years ago might have medical conditions could aid a human Jam Assist’’ for slow-speed highway product) to Google (cannot be ‘‘boxed’’ and seemed as magical. expert in diagnosing illnesses, as well does not sell to end customers, if anything, it The scientists and engineers at the as contributing computer expertise ‘‘During the next decade we’re going to see smarts ‘‘sells’’ customers). More money will be Computer Vision and Pattern Recogni- elsewhere in medicine. put into everything. Smart homes, smart cars, tion conference are creating a world in In May, however, I.B.M. went a signif- made in psychological demand creation than smart health, smart robots, smart science, smart in classical supply creation. Industrialized which cars drive themselves, machines icant step farther by announcing a gen- entertainment (the oxymoronic ‘‘entertain- recognize people and ‘‘understand’’ eral-purpose version of its software, the crowds and smart computer-human interactions.’’ their emotions, and humanoid robots ‘‘I.B.M. Watson Engagement Advisor.’’ ment industry’’) will gain prominence. The travel unattended, performing every- The idea is to make the company’s ques- economy will be playful, imaginary, more thing from mundane factory tasks to tion-answering system available in a driving; ‘‘Super Cruise’’ for automated childlike. The distant will become even near- emergency rescues. wide range of call center, technical sup- freeway driving, already demonstrated er, and nearness will continue to disappear. C.V.P.R., as it is known, is an annual port and telephone sales applications. by General Motors and others; and self- A generation ago our conversations did not gathering of computer vision scientists, The company says that as many as 61 parking, a feature already available need the market (we did not ‘‘pay’’ for them). students, roboticists, software hackers percent of all telephone support calls from a number of car manufacturers. Today a single phone call indirectly employs — and increasingly in recent years, currently fail because human support- Recently General Motors and Nissan thousands — fueling the economy by closing business and entrepreneurial types center employees are unable to give have said they will introduce completely looking for another great technological people correct or complete information. autonomous cars by the end of the de- the very gaps specialization itself created. leap forward. Watson, I.B.M. says, will be used to cade. In a blend of artificial-intelligence The growing power of computer vi- help human operators, but the system software and robotics, Mobileye, a small sion is a crucial first step for the next can also be used in a ‘‘self-service’’ Israeli manufacturer of camera technol- generation of computing, robotic and mode, in which customers can interact ogy for automotive safety that was foun- artificial intelligence systems. Once ma- directly with the program by typing ded by Mr. Shashua, has made consider- chines can identify objects and under- questions in a Web browser or by speak- able progress. While Google and stand their environments, they can be ing to a speech recognition program. automotive manufacturers have used a freed to move around in the world. And That suggests a ‘‘Freakonomics’’ out- variety of sensors including radars, once robots become mobile they will be come: There is already evidence that cameras and lasers, fusing the data to increasingly capable of extending the call-center operations that were once provide a detailed map of the rapidly reach of humans or replacing them. outsourced to India and the Philippines changing world surround a moving car, Self-driving cars, factory robots and a have come back to the United States, Mobileye researchers are attempting to new class of farm hands known as ag- not as jobs, but in the form of software match that accuracy with just video robots are already demonstrating what running in data centers. cameras and specialized software.

DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG NEWS

A PEOPLE APP FOR CITY CROWDS

GREG LINDSAY Co-director of the World Policy Institute’s Emergent Cities Project

I caught a glimpse of the city of the future last fall while crossing the street in San Francisco. I recognized someone I’d never seen striding toward me — because my iPhone warned me he was coming. Paul Davison runs Highlight, an app that maps users’ Facebook profiles to their phones’ GPS, producing a social network tethered to the sidewalks rather than splayed across cyberspace. If this century truly belongs to the city — and by its midpoint, four in five of us will live in one — then how should we best bring another few dozen cycles of Moore’s Law to bear on it? More than high- ways or skyscrapers, cities are the product of our personal encounters. Rather than wire our cities with sensors and run them SALLY RYAN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES from hidden control rooms, give me an app Here, let me get that for you that can pick a new face out of a crowd — increasingly mobile machines can do. Baxter, made by Rethink Robotics, doesn’t rely on programming alone: It can sense what needs to call it ‘‘serendipity-as-a-service.’’ Indeed, the rapid advance of computer be done and adapt itself to the task. The company also has factory robots that can watch and even vision is just one of a set of artificial in- feel their human co-workers, meaning the machines do not require cages or other safeguards. telligence-oriented technologies — oth- ers include speech recognition, dexter- ous manipulation and navigation — that underscore a sea change beyond per- ROBOTICS A race is under way to build EMOTIONAL COMPUTING At a pre- sonal computing and the Internet, the robots that can walk, open doors, climb school near the University of California, technologies that have defined the last ladders and generally replace humans San Diego, a child-size robot named three decades of the computing world. in hazardous situations. Rubi plays with children. It listens to ‘‘During the next decade we’re going In December, the Defense Advanced them, speaks to them and understands to see smarts put into everything,’’ said Research Projects Agency, or Darpa, the their facial expressions. Ed Lazowska, a computer scientist at Pentagon’s advanced research arm, will Rubi is an experimental project of the University of Washington who is a hold the first of two events in a $2 million Prof. Javier Movellan, a specialist in specialist in Big Data. ‘‘Smart homes, contest to build a robot that could take machine learning and robotics. Profes- smart cars, smart health, smart robots, the place of rescue workers in hazardous sor Movellan is one of a number of re- smart science, smart crowds and smart environments, like the site of the dam- searchers now working on a class of computer-human interactions.’’ aged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. computers that can interact with hu- The enormous amount of data being Scheduled to be held in Miami, the mans, including holding conversa- generated by inexpensive sensors has contest will involve robots that compete tions. been a significant factor in altering the at tasks as diverse as driving vehicles, Computers that understand our deep- center of gravity of the computing world, traversing rubble fields, using power est emotions hold the promise of a world he said, making it possible to use cen- tools, throwing switches and closing full of brilliant machines. They also PAULO FRIDMAN/BLOOMBERG NEWS tralized computers in data centers — re- valves. raise the specter of an invasion of pri- ferred to as the cloud — to take artificial In addition to the Darpa robots, a vacy on a scale not previously possible, intelligence technologies like machine- wave of intelligent machines for the as they move a step beyond recognizing THE FUTURE OF THE PRESENT learning and spread computer intelli- workplace is coming from Rethink Ro- human faces to the ability to watch the gence far beyond desktop computers. bots, based in Boston, and Universal Ro- array of muscles in the face and decode THOM MAYNE Pritzker Prize-winning architect, Apple was the most successful early bots, based in Copenhagen, which have the thousands of possible movements U.C.L.A. professor of architecture and urban design innovator in popularizing what is today begun selling lower-cost two-armed ro- into an understanding of what people described as ubiquitous computing. The bots to act as factory helpers. Neither are thinking and feeling. I would challenge the whole idea of the future idea, first proposed by Mark Weiser, a company’s robots have legs, or even These developments are based on the as a topic of interest. We’re completely in- computer scientist with Xerox, involves wheels, yet. But they are the first com- work of the American psychologist volved in the present. When you’re looking at embedding powerful microprocessor mercially available robots that do not Paul Ekman, who explored the relation- chips in everyday objects. require cages, because they are able to ship between human emotion and facial cities today, at metropolises like São Paulo, Steve Jobs, during his second tenure watch and even feel their human co- expression. His research found the ex- Beijing, Tokyo, we can’t grasp the complexity at Apple, was quick to understand the workers, so as not to harm them. istence of ‘‘micro expressions’’ that ex- of issues that form these huge aggregates of implications of the falling cost of com- For the home, companies are design- pose difficult-to-suppress authentic re- humanity. The notion of the future in an intel- puter intelligence. Taking advantage of ing robots that are more sophisticated actions. In San Diego, Professor lectual and philosophical way would connect it, he first created a digital music player, than today’s vacuum-cleaner robots. Movellan has founded a company, to some sort of optimism; I would locate that the iPod, and then transformed mobile Hoaloha Robotics, founded by the former Emotient, that is one of a handful of in the 1950s and 60s, when in the United communication with the iPhone. Now Microsoft executive Tandy Trower, re- start-ups pursuing applications for the such innovation is rapidly accelerating cently said it planned to build robots for technology. A near-term use is in ma- States there was enormous optimism for the into all consumer products. elder care, an idea that, if successful, chines that can tell when people are future. We live at a time when, if it’s not pessi- ‘‘The most important new computer might make it possible for more of the laughing, crying or skeptical—asur- mistic, it’s not optimistic. The present takes maker in Silicon Valley isn’t a computer aging population to live independently. vey tool for film and television audi- up so much space and oxygen there isn’t a lot maker at all, it’s Tesla,’’ the electric car Seven entrants in the Darpa contest ences. of energy left over to deal with future or past. manufacturer, said Paul Saffo, a man- will be based on the imposing hu- Farther down the road, it is likely that What next? We’re going to internalize this in- aging director at Discern Analytics, a re- manoid-shaped Atlas robot manufac- applications will know exactly how formation technology, so we have more search firm based in San Francisco. ‘‘The tured by Boston Dynamics, a research people are reacting as the conversation space, so we can control this overinvestment car has become a node in the network company based in Waltham, Massachu- progresses, a step well beyond Siri, and a computer in its own right. It’s a setts. Among the wide range of other Apple’s voice recognition system. in the present. primitive robot that wraps around you.’’ entrants are some that look anything Harry Potter fans, stand by. . INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | S3 cartier.com

High Jewellery bracelet, L’Odyssée de Cartier An exceptional pear-shaped diamond of 63.66 carats combined with the power of rock crystal: a unique creation which required almost 2 000 hours of work. . S4 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES turning the page agriculture

Keeping it clean A worker, left, sterilizing the hatching ‘‘module’’ at the farm of Peter Stroo, in Slootdorp, home to 160,000 chickens. The chicks are hatched by the thousands in the climate-controlled facility and raised there for almost three weeks. Transferred to a separate module downstairs, they spend another three weeks growing to about 2.5 kilograms, or 5.5 pounds. Light, heating, ventilation, chick harvesting and manure removal are all integrated into the system, to save energy and reduce the environmental footprint.

The breeding edge Bram van Velden, a manager at Enza Zaden, a seed producer based in Enkhuizen, is responsible for organizing breeding greenhouses. Enza Zaden uses DNA analysis and other advanced processes to ensure that the seeds it sends to market are healthy and disease-free. The company, which invests more than 30 percent of its sales in research and development, has a global presence in numerous varieties of fruits and vegetables, including tomatoes, sweet peppers, cucumbers, lettuce, onions and melons.

Farming’s avant-garde Photography by Henk Wildschut Despite its small size and the fact that much of it is below sea level, the Netherlands punches above its weight in farm exports, second only to the United States. When Henk Wildschut set out two years ago to study the food industry for ‘‘Document Nederland,’’ an annual photography exhibition by the Rijksmuseum and the Dutch newspaper NRC Handelsblad that opened in September, he says he saw it ‘‘as dis- honest, unhealthy and unethical.’’ But his project, which focused on innovative pro- duction efforts and became the basis for his book ‘‘Food,’’ revealed a large gap be- tween the ‘‘consumer-driven romanticized ideal and the reality of food production.’’ Increasingly, he says, ‘‘our food is created in a clean world of rules and protocols.’’

Blight fight Enabling urban agriculture Discs of lettuce leaves, left, laid out for Sweet peppers, above, grown hydroponically examination at the Enza Zaden breeding by PlantLab, a company in 's-Hertogenbosch. facility in Enkhuizen. The discs, known as Thanks in part to their long history of intensive programs, are used to test resistance to agriculture in small quasi-urban areas, the Downy mildew, a fungal disease that can Dutch are world leaders in greenhouse and devastate lettuce crops. The disease, which indoor farming. PlantLab’s technology allows appears worldwide, can be treated with for total control of temperature, humidity, chemical fungicides. But for organic growers, carbon dioxide, irrigation, nutrition and air the best hope is that breeders can create circulation, while light is provided by an LED varieties that are hardy enough to withstand system. The system does not require the disease. pesticides and uses much less water than traditional farming.

Meat and ethics In search of a happier, cleaner pig A slide show with additional photo- An organic chicken from Hubbard, a poultry A small porker, above, demonstrating Pigsy, a graphs from the exhibit. inyt.com breeding company, top, getting a checkup in toilet for pigs in the Swine Innovation Center at Amsterdam. Factory farms use a different type Wageningen University. Piglets are trained early Industrial models of food production are not of chicken, one that can be slaughtered at just to defecate in a special corner of the facility, inevitable, Mark Bittman writes. PAGE S18 six weeks. Animal welfare groups claim that making it possible to collect feces at a single those chickens suffer during their short lives. point, which lowers ammonia emissions and makes cleanup easier. Wageningen is one of the world’s top centers of agricultural research, and its scientists are cited in more academic papers than all but a handful of institutions. . INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | S5 . S6 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES turning the page media

The world is watching upper hand over makers of TV sets, the Borderless content? The end of TV? same is likely to happen with smart- Media executives are grasping for clues phones and other gadgets. For media owners, the opportunities as technological upheaval gathers pace will be enhanced by advances in areas like translation. Forget about the clunky BY ERIC PFANNER online translations that are currently available, analysts say; within a few The year is 2023, or ’33, perhaps. You’re years, the Internet will offer simulta- having a rough morning. The alarm neous interpretation of audio and video, clock is silent, the coffee maker cold. making all sorts of media content ac- Your iPyjamas, which promised to man- cessible to new audiences. age your routine, have let you down English-language media, which have again. Maybe they failed to recognize had a head start on globalization, could your fingerprints. gain new markets. And for the first time, Never mind. You check your e-mail many non-English publishers, which (yes, we still use it) and read the head- have struggled to reach beyond national lines. They scroll by on the flexible screen or linguistic borders, could find global on your sleeve, translated instantly into audiences. Burmese, your native tongue: ‘‘China ‘‘Language as a barrier is going to threatens U.S. with semiconductor em- completely evaporate in the next five bargo if it reneges on debt’’; ‘‘Brazil-In- years,’’ said Gerd Leonhard, a self-de- donesia deal creates global technology scribed media futurist in Basel, Switzer- giant’’; ‘‘Nigerian sitcom a sensation in land. Europe.’’ You blink twice to signal yes Local content — like films, music and when the Kellogg’s ad asks about auto- books, produced in languages other matically replenishing the depleted sup- than English — still has a harder time ply of cornflakes in your pantry. crossing borders. But even those lin- Finally, as you are whisked to work in guistic and cultural barriers are getting your driverless car, you have a minute lower. Anyone witnessing the fascina- to watch highlights of the soccer tion with Japanese singers like Kyary matches last night. Remember when you could watch sports only when and For all the talk of an interconnected planet, only where the broadcasters wanted? For about 2.7 billion people can now surf the Web, that matter, remember when we used to call it ‘‘television’’? How quaint. of a global population of more than 7.1 billion. The seers predicted some of these The opportunities, and challenges, are enormous. changes when they promised, back in 2013 or so, that digital technology would transform the world. Within a few de- Pamyu Pamyu in Taiwan, or with cades, they promised, advances in infor- Korean television series like ‘‘Iris’’ in mation technology would give us better Japan, might be tempted to think that government, better health care, better Asia could be the place where this media and better education — even, paradigm breaks down. wrote Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen of Like Hollywood, which has long relied Google, in ‘‘The New Digital Age,’’‘‘auto- on its ability to win over mass markets mated and machine-precise haircuts.’’ across borders, American Internet Politicians and human nature have companies, too, have enjoyed a head proved to be more resilient than barbers. start on globalization. But now the In- But the futurists were certainly right ternet is growing more polyglot. A study about one thing. Media, as a business and by the U.N. Broadband Commission last a cultural force, has been transformed. year showed that Chinese-speaking In- ternet users were on the verge of over- PREDICTING THE OUTCOME of a revo- taking their English-speaking counter- lution is a fool’s game. Still, a few things parts, who used to dominate Internet are clear, even today, about the changes use, in terms of numbers. we are living through in the world of in- Europe has not had great success in formation, entertainment and commu- producing border-hopping Internet nications. companies. But some analysts say it The convergence of digital media and could get a new chance in the wake of technology, under way since the dawn the disclosure of widespread Internet of the Internet, will accelerate. Distinc- surveillance by American intelligence officials, which has heightened con- ‘‘In a digital era, any content can be accessed cerns about digital privacy. anywhere, anytime. Any media organization, ‘‘If you betray trust, you end up with the user saying, ‘Sorry, I’m not going to anywhere, can aspire to a global audience.’’ let you into my mind,’’’ Mr. Leonhard said. If Europe does not step up, perhaps tions between old and new media will the next Internet giants will come from fade; most media will be digital. Mobile Asia. Asian companies like Line, devices, already the preferred media WeChat and KakaoTalk, which combine and Internet platform for many people, communications and media services for will continue to proliferate. We may smartphones, have attracted hundreds wear them on our bodies or weave them of millions of users over the past two into our clothing. CRISTÓBAL SCHMAL years, making them a faster-growing Globalization of the media business phenomena than social media compa- will advance, creating new markets. nies like Facebook. The old centers of media creation and tinues, as reflected in the sale of The distribute it around the world. Amateur So technology companies are looking Asia also provides some useful per- consumption, the United States and Washington Post to Jeff Bezos of journalists, photographers and film- for the next big thing. Samsung has in- spective on the evolution of media and Europe, will feel new competition from Amazon, announced this past summer. makers can now aspire to a global audi- troduced a watch that links to its smart- technology. Just take an evening stroll faster-growing regions: Asia, of course, Will television be next? Until now, it ence. Local entertainers can achieve in- phones; Apple is said to be working on a through Shibuya, one of the epicenters of but also Latin America, Africa and oth- has held up better. TV audiences have ternational stardom. similar device. Gadgets like these will Tokyo youth culture. Japanese teenagers ers. When that happens, media content, fragmented as channels have prolifer- Until the summer of 2012, few people connect us ever more intimately to the are as trend-obsessed as ever; the cur- still dominated by Western notions of ated, but overall viewer figures and ad- outside South Korea had heard of Psy, a networked world. rent must-have accessory is an external what constitutes news and entertain- vertising remain strong in much of the pudgy rapper with a reputation for Meanwhile, low-cost smartphones battery pack to keep those smartphones ment, will have to adapt, too. world. cheesy dance moves and dubious lyrics. will bring the Internet to huge new audi- running during marathon sessions of ‘‘Geography and technology will be But there are signs that this could Today he is, by one measure, the biggest ences. The International Telecommuni- chatting or gaming on their phones. the key drivers,’’ said Martin Sorrell, change. Studies show a rise in ‘‘cord pop star of his time. cations Union, a United Nations body, So it might seem bizarre that one of the chief executive of the advertising gi- cutting’’ — that is, cancellations of pay- A little more than a year after Psy says 2.7 billion people are currently the favorite hangouts in Shibuya is ant WPP. TV subscriptions — by American house- posted ‘‘Gangnam Style,’’ a video par- connected, of a global population of something decidedly old-fashioned — a A recent study by Cisco Systems, a holds. Instead of watching scheduled ody of Seoul’s nouveaux riches, on You- more than 7.1 billion. Chinese companies record store. The flagship branch of provider of networking equipment, un- channels, more people are using on-de- Tube, it has been viewed nearly two bil- now make smartphones that do most of Tower Records, a name that disap- derlines the uncertainties. By 2017, it mand services like Netflix, or simply do- lion times — more than any other video. what their better-known rivals do, at peared from the American retailing says, revenue in the media industry — ing without TV, as they log longer hours ‘‘In a digital era, any content can be one-fifth or one-tenth the price. scene in 2006, sprawls across nine floors. defined broadly as everything from the on the Internet. accessed anywhere, anytime,’’ said A world of five billion or seven billion At eleven at night, it is a hive of activity. sale of content to the provision of Inter- Television, in other words, is starting Ross Dawson, the author of the book digitally connected consumers also cre- Clearly, the media revolution could net access — could do anything from to look more like the Internet, even as ‘‘Living Networks,’’ which, in 2002, pre- ates huge opportunities — and chal- veer off in different directions. Despite shrink slightly from the current level of the Internet starts to look more like TV. dicted the growth of social networking. lenges. Within 10 years, Mr. Sorrell said, digital convergence, it will be marked just under $1 trillion to more than dou- ‘‘When you get the ubiquity of smart ‘‘Any media organization, anywhere, three-quarters of WPP’s business will by diversity. ble. That is only four years from now. devices, you stop talking about old me- can aspire to a global audience.’’ come from digital media and fast-grow- ‘‘You could argue that the future is Some industries, like music and news- dia and new media — it’s all just media,’’ There are signs that the pace of inno- ing markets like China, Russia, Brazil already here, that the factors that will papers, have already been through the said Marcel Fenez, the global chief of vation in smartphones is slowing. The and India, up from just over half now. determine the future are already here,’’ wringer. While the recording industry the media and entertainment practice introductions of new Apple iPhones no The commoditization of personal said Mr. Fenez, at PWC. ‘‘We just showed its first revenue growth last at PricewaterhouseCoopers. longer capture the imagination the way technology will make media content haven’t seen the full impact. All we can year after a decade of decline, the up- Digital technology has given more they once did; the advances are more more important. Just as providers of really talk about is the pace and the col- heaval in the newspaper business con- people the power to create media, and to incremental. television programming now hold the or of the future in different markets.’’

ULTIMATE DISCRETION

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RALPHLAURENCOLLECTION.COM . S8 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES turning the page fashion

Working the crowd fashion companies). Since the bloggers has lived through the change of speed. An era of spontaneous mass reaction proudly present themselves online with ‘‘When thinking about a new brand, is teaching designers a harsh lesson: the new trophy, this is hardly a secret. you have to think about brand equity, not Ken Downing, the fashion director at just today but tomorrow and in the next The stream of ideas has to flow faster Neiman Marcus, believes he has seen year or five years,’’ she says, citing the the beginning of a negative reaction to need to project growth areas for clothing BY SUZY MENKES the blogosphere, citing the greed of or accessories and attempt to spot win- some newly arrived bloggers. Yet the ners, like Céline and the Tom Ford label, ROBIN UTRECHT/EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY We have all read — often in excerpts from sheer amount of fashion words and im- two brands that grew spectacularly at serious scientific journals — about revo- ages out there has had one definite ef- Harrods over three years. lutionary clothing concepts: the ‘‘well- fect for fashion companies: the need to ‘‘We are also looking at social media DESIGNING A CLEAN SKY IN BEIJING ness’’ jacket impregnated with herbal constantly press the refresh button. as an opportunity,’’ she says. ‘‘And how treatments; the outfit that changes color Stella McCartney says it is impossible do we do fusion between bricks-and- DAAN ROOSEGAARDE Dutch digital artist, with body heat as a hazard warning; the to send out a collection based on a single mortar and online? How do you stay rel- founder of the design firm Studioroosegaarde boots that adapt to any foot size. look, because each woman has many fa- evant? I think relevance is the key.’’ Yet fashionable shop windows and on- cets. One of the overall reasons for the As a young design firm based in the Nether- line offerings look suspiciously familiar: Alber Elbaz, the creative director of growth of fashion sales in shops and on- lands and Shanghai, we’ve been working on new, perhaps, in the mix of colors, espe- Lanvin, says he marvels that fashion line has simply been the increasingly interactive designs like a sustainable dance cially with digitized patterns, or in ever- icons of the past, like Coco Chanel with large range of products from the major lighter stretch fabrics, but so far nothing her tweeds and pearls or Madame Grès floor which generates electricity when you to project fashion into a futuristic era. and her draped cloth, followed the same dance, and a smart highway, roads which If fashion is for everyone and about everything Behind the apparent ‘‘sameness’’ of path all their fashion lives. in every possible shape and at every conceivable generate their own light. We’ve always what was once defined by ‘‘new-ness,’’ Not only does Mr. Elbaz present been fascinated with what happens when however, fashion is changing drastical- shows with markedly different offerings price, what does it mean to be fashionable? technology jumps out of that computer ly. Where once the products were de- — mannish tailoring and floaty dresses, screen, but also how can we make cities feel signed for an elite, ‘‘fashion’’ is now out discreet colors and bold glamour — but, more human again. One of the dreams I there for everyone, at every price. like all designers, he also has to produce brands. Thirty years ago, Mr. de la You want shorts (for either sex), and a constant stream of new ideas outside Bourdonnaye points out, some design- have is to play with smog. In Beijing, the there they are, in reptile skin with a de- the main runway shows. ers made only clothes while others spe- smog is literally off scale. The American signer label and an eye-watering price Why does there have to be so much cialized in shoes, bags or hats. Embassy cannot even measure it. We’re tag, or in denim (of course) for next to fashion in the 21st century, at a time when Since the 1990s, however, the boot has working on a sort of electromagnetic field nothing. They also come in cotton, silk, people pay lip service to ideas of sustain- been on the other foot, metaphorically on the ground which literally pulls it down linen, in a variety of lengths, patterned ability and recycling, to ‘‘green’’ fashion and literally, with Gucci, Louis Vuitton to the surface where we can clean it and or plain. Yours for the picking. backed by celebrities like Livia Firth? and Prada stretching their expertise scrape it away. This creates gigantic holes ‘‘There is such a thing as fashion And despite the wide media coverage from accessories to clothes. of clean air in the sky. These kind of things today,’’ says Tom Ford, ‘‘but it is every- and the shocking images of building col- The need to constantly refresh also where and everything. Every kind of lapses and fires in Bangladesh garment applies to young designers, who are no are landscape art in a very radical Dutch shoe with a high heel, flat, platform. So factories, where workers are paid a pit- longer tapped just to divvy up existing way. It’s time to upgrade our reality. much, too much!’’ brands, like Alexander Wang at Balen- If fashion is for everyone and about ciaga or J.W. Anderson’s one-season- everything in every possible shape and only collection for Versace’s Versus line. at every conceivable price, from Mos- Investment from the luxury conglom- cow to Shanghai, what does it mean to erates to back some of those young de- be fashionable? signers is part of the trend. For ex- Well, we live in an era of ‘‘people’s ample, Kering (formerly PPR) backs choice.’’ With a billion selfies being Joseph Altuzarra, based in the United pinged via Instagram or other means States, and Christopher Kane of Britain, across cities and continents, there is a while LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis group mentality operating. The con- Vuitton is circling the former Balen-

NASA

IN SEARCH OF EARTH’S TWINS

SARA SEAGER Professor of planetary science and physics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

In the next few decades I predict we will send an unmanned space craft beyond the Solar System to the nearest Earth-like plan- et. We must first find the other Earths — this endeavor is also in the making. Al- though over 1,000 exoplanets (planets orbit- ing stars other than the sun) have been dis- covered in the past two decades, the true Earth twins around nearby sun-like stars remain just out of reach. A sun-like star is 10 billion times brighter than an Earth-like planet, and finding the other Earth is like looking for a firefly adjacent to a search light, when both are 2,500 miles away. We need to block out the starlight to directly im- age the Earth-like planet. Sound futuristic? The human drive to find other Earths and to travel in space appears to be so fundamen- tal that if the Earth twins are out there we will find them and find a way to go to them.

LUISA VERA

stantly changing ‘‘leaders’’ in the blogo- ciaga designer Nicolas Ghesquière. sphere set rules, with followers then ab- Why does the future of fashion remain sorbing, rejecting or reformulating their a guessing game? Perhaps because the endorsements or harsh judgements. effects of today’s rapidly evolving tech- With fashion shows live-streamed, nology, like the transformations brought STEVE HALL/HEDRICH BLESSING viewers can talk about them via social by the Industrial Revolution in the 19th media before any reviews by fashion tance to produce the latest fashions in century, are simply unfathomable. critics or other institutional commenta- hazardous conditions, nothing seems to Will the next decade produce an inter- THE GREENING OF ARCHITECTURE tors have appeared. have reduced consumer demand for nationally known designer crowd- Geoffroy de la Bourdonnaye, the chief cheap clothes that instantly imitate de- sourced over the Internet? Will Asian JEANNE GANG Architect, founder of Studio executive of the Paris-based Chloé, part signer looks. designers come into full flower in their Gang Architects of Chicago of the Richemont group, says that the Mr. Elbaz is concerned that fast fash- own countries and no longer be idea of an outfit or even a brand being ion, the fading of multibrand stores and scattered across the fashion world, like Digital technologies have provided architec- ‘‘in’’ or ‘‘out’’ according to the whims of the rise of luxury conglomerates are af- the ‘‘ABC’s,’’ as American-born ture with liberating design tools that have bloggers is tough to swallow for fashion fecting the very essence of fashion. Chinese are known? yielded novel forms and fabrication meth- companies, especially those with a long ‘‘Fashion is changing; power is tak- Even more difficult to predict is wheth- heritage, well-orchestrated publicity ing over from strength,’’ he says. ‘‘Fash- er science and technology will play an ods. In the next few decades we will witness campaigns and stores around the world. ion used to be a family, and family is active role in creating fashion rather designers expanding their use of technol- For an established brand, this switch about being strong. Money is about be- than just creating instant reaction. ogy in ways that will make architecture in fashion influence to a form of ‘‘crowd ing powerful, and I think there is too Most designers remain skeptical greener and more responsive to its users. critique’’ is more striking than a dra- much power. People go to stores and about whether computers can actually At the city scale, design will move toward matic change of style, like a return of the they have been brainwashed about ‘‘create’’ fabric patterns as opposed to systemic solutions rather than one-off, re- floor-sweeping maxi. what to buy, not necessarily because the way they can help weave knitwear, source-draining projects. On a smaller ‘‘You know instantly’’ if something is they love the product. There are too for example. a hit or a flop, Mr. de la Bourdonnaye many collections, too many seasons. The plastics fantastic that seduced scale, perhaps more profoundly impactful, says. ‘‘The online response is very Maybe that is where we need change.’’ the legendary magazine editor Diana there will be a move toward greater trans- quick. These are spontaneous reactions While the luxury groups have all Vreeland in the 1930s — but literally parency in building materials. Just as the la- from people who are not fashion ex- moved into retailing over the past 20 vanished into thin air at the dry cleaner beling revolution has transformed the food perts. But people are becoming more years, department stores have also — have left a shadow on the psyche. industry, declaring the content of building and more educated. And everyone is taken up the challenge of high-end com- Is the future of fashion design in the materials and the chemicals used in their everywhere.’’ petition and the fast-fashion offerings laboratory? In some kind of production production will change the way we design He might have added that an ‘‘it’’ bag on Main Street. cyberspace? In traditional stores or yet- and choose the environments we inhabit. can be turned into a ‘‘hit’’ bag by the ju- Marigay McKee, who is poised to be- undiscovered venues? Whatever the dicious placing of products with bloggers come the next president of Saks Fifth Av- answers, fashion will remain a bellweth- This will lead to large-scale change that will (just as magazine editors have tradition- enue after 15 years as chief merchant, or er for modernity and a mirror of its (fu- improve the health of the planet. ally been showered with gifts from the fashion director, at Harrods in London, ture) time. . INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | S9 . S10 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES turning the page energy

Power struggles do not adapt. ‘‘People underestimated around the world and to try to squeeze Advances that provide more countries the U.S. and overestimated countries more out of old fields, where large with secure fuel sources are helping like Iraq,’’ said Majid Jafar, the chief ex- amounts of additional oil can often be re- ecutive of Crescent Petroleum, an oil covered with more modern technol- to redraw the global energy map company based in the United Arab ogies. Emirates with production in Iraqi Kur- ‘‘The era of easy oil is over,’’ said Dav- BY STANLEY REED distan. ‘‘It is more about the investment id Highton, an analyst at the oil re- ARIANA LINDQUIST FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES climate than what is in the ground.’’ search firm Wood Mackenzie in Edin- Not long ago, Chevron’s exploration In the years ahead, OPEC, whose burgh. ‘‘But the industry will always teams were stuck. Several years earlier member nations have about 70 percent push the boundaries of technology to A PLACE FOR THE DISABLED IN CHINA they had struck oil at a place called of the world’s proven oil reserves, may develop ever more complex resources.’’ Rosebank, 9,000 feet below the surface face falling market share and a loss of The ingenuity of the industry can be MENG WEINA Founder of Huiling, an advocacy of the Atlantic Ocean west of Britain’s clout. ‘‘Over time, the OPEC countries seen in the United States, which until re- group for the mentally disabled in China Shetland Islands. But the usual seismic will become more marginal players in cently was thought to be facing inexor- surveys could not make out the location the global market,’’ Mr. Goldwyn said. able declines of its oil and gas, and ever- China’s economic reform has touched on of the field clearly enough for Chevron Relatively recent discoveries of oil and increasing imports. But now the United every aspect of society, and in my area to decide where to place wells, which gas fields in the South China Sea, the States is producing oil at levels not seen there have been deep changes, too. But the can cost $100 million or more apiece. eastern Mediterranean and off the coasts for a generation and is on the verge of So the teams placed 750 sensors on of Africa and South America will extend becoming a natural gas exporter. wall we cannot get around is the political the sea bottom for a close-up scan, then the supply and spread the wealth. The implications of that turnaround system. When will social organizations be crunched the huge reams of data with a Certainly, compared with OPEC’s are just beginning to be felt. The produc- allowed to register, properly, with legal pro- supercomputer. ‘‘It was like putting on current dominant market share, the tion boom is likely to help the United tections? When will special-needs children the right pair of glasses,’’ said Steve United States has no clear advantage in States retain its position as an economic be able easily to attend regular schools? Garrett, the head of Chevron’s Euro- shale resources, which are widely dis- superpower, and rising output should When will mentally disabled adults not be pean technology center in Aberdeen, tributed throughout the world. help cut the trade deficit. kidnapped and sold as slaves? So while the Scotland. Russia, for instance, has huge shale John Surma, the executive chairman That is just one example of how the government is spending a lot of money on energy industry is transforming more the disabled, because it isn’t willing to cre- rapidly than ever, driven by technology, ate a social system that would allow its changing economic conditions and An American energy revolution money to work, it’s actually wasting a lot of shifts in political power. The changes money. The government hasn’t understood are reordering both the ways of doing In the United States, production of shale gas and so-called tight oil, obtained in a way similar that the disabled need to grow up in society, business and the global balance of to shale gas, has risen drastically over the past decade. not outside it. I’m nearly 60, and I feel that power in energy. Natural gas and crude oil production in the United States when it comes to building a civilized, moral ‘‘Expect the unexpected,’’ said Robert N. Stavins, the director of the en- society, change is too slow, not too fast. I 30 quadrillion B.T.U.’s vironmental economics program at don’t think I’ll live to see it. Harvard, noting that, among other things, ‘‘technological change will be quick, and political change is happening 20 much faster than before.’’ High oil prices, especially the spike to Other natural gas more than $145 a barrel five years ago, 10 unleashed investment and led to the dis- Other crude oil covery of new supplies, while technolo- Tight oil gical advances and conservation efforts 0 Shale gas are likely to ripple through the energy ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 ’08 ’10 ’12 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 ’08 ’10 ’12 world for decades to come. Some of the rapid changes are taking place within the existing order and oth- ers outside it, with winners and losers Most shale gas and tight oil resources are currently found in Asia and North America. But around the globe on many fronts. according to projections by BP, only North America is projected to be a major producer of Forecasters warned for decades that those resources over the next two decades. fossil-fuel production was peaking and Shale gas and tight oil Projected shale gas and that alternate energy sources would in- resources, 2012 tight oil production, 2030 creasingly be relied upon. But energy In trillion tons of oil equivalent In billion tons of oil equivalent companies have repeatedly defied those predictions by developing new 51.3 Gas 63 SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES-AFP technologies — like Chevron’s deep-sea Asia Pacific 8.6 Oil 23 exploration techniques and the rise of fracking as a means of extracting natur- 42.3 510 North America HEALTH REVOLUTIONS TO COME al gas. And world coal consumption has 9.5 280 been growing strongly, especially in JULIO FRENK Dean of the Harvard School Asia, and is now roughly tied with oil as South and 29.7 25 of Public Health the world’s leading fuel. Central America 5.0 27 No doubt, the use of wind, solar and 27.0 29 Since the beginning of the 20th century, we hydroelectric power and other less-pol- Africa have seen the most profound transforma- luting renewable energy sources will 4.5 0 continue to grow, as concerns about tion in human health in history. Humankind Europe and 25.2 64 global warming increase. Hydroelectric achieved larger gains in life expectancy former Soviet dams are still the largest renewable 4.4 67 than in all previously accumulated history. Union source, though hydropower is expected 3.6 4 Where once people died young, mostly from to grow more slowly than wind and sol- Middle East 0.5 0 infections, today we have both infectious ar. Research into waves and tidal en- pandemics, like AIDS, and new pandemics, ergy is extensive, notably at the Euro- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, BP like obesity, that people can increasingly pean Marine Energy Center in the live with. Still, climate change has enor- Orkney Islands north of the Scottish mainland, though output from such mous health consequences, as do unhealthy technology at present is not significant. lifestyles and persistent humanitarian Nuclear power presents a more un- formations that dwarf those in the of the Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel, said crises. There are four revolutions to come. even picture. Germany is planning to United States. Its government is begin- the energy to produce a ton of steel cost In the life sciences, we’re learning the inti- shut all its nuclear power plants by 2022, ning to change its tax system so as to en- three times as much at his company’s mate functioning of the body. Mobile tech- in the wake of the Fukushima disaster in courage exploiting these resources. plant in Slovakia as it did in the United nology will expand access to health infor- Japan, which also dealt a heavy blow to Russia needs to ‘‘loosen up’’ and al- States. Shale gas, he said, ‘‘is one of the mation and care. New managerial concepts the Japanese nuclear industry. Britain is low a little bit of trial and error, said best things to happen to the U.S. from a are dealing with corporate complexity. And, negotiating with a French company to Christof Rühl, the chief economist of BP. cost standpoint for quite some time.’’ build a plant in England. France is still At the same time, slack demand from The United States also has an abun- increasingly, the world recognizes health as building and exporting nuclear power Europe and low natural gas prices in the dance of service contractors ready to a fundamental human right, not a privilege. stations, and China, South Korea and United States are threatening Russia’s drill wells and hydraulically fracture even the United Arab Emirates are all gas revenue. This particularly hurts be- them on quick notice, and it has an ex- embracing nuclear energy. cause Russia resembles an OPEC coun- tensive gas pipeline network for distri- While Germany has shown that a ma- try, in that prices and natural resource bution. ‘‘One of the supreme advant- jor industrial economy can find the production matter greatly to its econo- ages the U.S. has in shale is the political will to begin a wholesale shift my. infrastructure to distribute gas any- away from nuclear power and carbon- China, the world’s largest energy con- where in the country,’’ said Andrew based fuels, renewable energies are still sumer, is much more complicated — Gould, the chairman of BG Group, a plagued by high costs. and hugely influential. ‘‘Anything which large British gas producer. Not so natural gas. Its consumption is China needs translates into additional Mr. Gould said Europe was burdened forecast to grow faster than that of oil, demand, pushing up commodities by a one-directional gas system de- and along with the availability of renew- prices,’’ said Neil Beveridge, an analyst signed to handle imports from Russia. able energy, will make energy supplies in Hong Kong for Sanford C. Bernstein, As in the case of mobile phones, devel- more diverse and more geographically a research firm. oping countries setting up new grids distributed, which might sooth fears of China is also the biggest carbon emit- shortage and disruption. ‘‘A lot more ter, drawing about two-thirds of its en- The behemoths of today — OPEC, Russia and countries have access to a decent slice of ergy from coal. This has created pres- even some major oil companies — could lose out energy supply,’’ said David L. Goldwyn, sure for it to turn more to wind, solar who served as the U.S. State Depart- and nuclear power. Emerging markets, if they do not adapt to a world where investment ment’s coordinator for international en- particularly in Asia, are expected to ac- and innovation trump abundant supplies. ergy affairs in the first Obama adminis- count for most future energy growth. NIGEL TREBLIN/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE tration. ‘‘That is a shift in power.’’ As in many other industries, China The winners in future energy are has followed an export strategy in en- might have an advantage, he said. likely to be companies and countries ergy. In addition to the China General In Western Europe, however, only the ‘PROHIBITION’ FOR SPORTS DRUGS that are open to risk-taking, innovation Nuclear Power Group’s discussions British government has come out and experimentation, rather than just with Britain, China made about 70 per- strongly in favor of fracking, and envi- JOHN HOBERMAN University of Texas professor, those blessed with huge pools of oil and cent of the world’s photovoltaic solar ronmentalists are hobbling the effort expert on drug use in sports gas. The United States looms large, with panels last year, leading to friction with before it even starts. small and midsize companies extracting the European Union, which is investi- To the east, where the urge to break The doping epidemic in Olympic and profes- huge quantities of natural gas and, more gating whether China is selling at subsi- the hold of Russian gas runs stronger, sional sports is out of control. There is an recently, what is known as tight oil from dized low prices in order to increase Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania and others unprecedented crisis of confidence among seemingly impermeable shale rock. market share. are more receptive to exploration. In fact, small and flexible may be one Vehicle fuel is also a mixed picture. The shale boom in the United States leading anti-doping officials. This has pro- model for the new age. In nuclear en- While electric cars are becoming com- could also prompt a reassessment of the duced calls to legalize doping drugs, on the ergy, for example, engineers are work- monplace and an increasing number of renewable energy business. Partly by false assumption that doping can be made a ing on miniaturized power plants. Gen4 buses and trucks are using natural gas, shifting to natural gas from coal and oil, medically safe procedure. After all, some Energy, based in Denver, is developing cars powered by gasoline or diesel are the United States cut emissions about 12 say, there is widespread use of perfor- what it calls ‘‘small, transportable not going to be swept aside anytime percent between 2007 and 2012, accord- mance-enhancing drugs by ordinary cit- power sources’’ that might be used in soon. Indeed, advances in diesel tech- ing to the Energy Information Adminis- izens. But the prohibitionist condemnation remote locations, either for commercial nology that make it cleaner and more tration, a federal agency. Investment in operations like mining or to power res- fuel efficient may strengthen fossil wind and solar power has been falling, of ‘‘drug’’ use is too strong to permit the le- idential communities on islands and oth- fuel’s base in the automotive industry. after reaching a global peak of about galization of sports doping. Sports leagues er isolated places. Enel Green Power, a Most forecasters predict that fossil $240 billion in 2011, according to are tightening drug testing. Cycling is under subsidiary of the Italian energy group fuels will dominate the energy picture Bloomberg New Energy Finance. crushing pressure to eliminate doping. Enel, builds wind farms on contract for for at least the next couple of decades. ‘‘This is clearly the natural gas centu- Modern society has demonstrated it will not private companies in developing coun- With prices high, the oil industry has ry,’’ said Edward Morse, the head of tolerate unregulated athletic doping, be- tries, including Mexico, where it is bet- raised investment in exploration: Ac- commodities research at Citigroup in cause it wants to preserve sport’s cultural ter to have your own power source. cording to BP, proven oil reserves rose New York. Mr. Morse said that having ideals. This contest between today’s liber- The behemoths of today — the Organ- 26 percent over the last decade, and gas gas resources, as many countries do, ization of the Petroleum Exporting reserves increased 21 percent. ‘‘frees an economy from worrying not tarian pharmacology and the anti-doping Countries, Russia, and even some major Prices of $100 a barrel make it worth- only about security of supply but volatil- ethos will persist for many years to come. oil companies — could be losers if they while to hunt for oil in deeper waters ity of price.’’ . INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | S11 . S12 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES turning the page finance

Chastening the giants A wave of consolidation in the United much to restrain financial companies Banks have lost some of their swagger, States has concentrated financial assets will end up hindering economic growth. but they’re back in fighting form. in the hands of a small number of big in- If economies continue to falter, banks stitutions, critics say, and in Europe, may gradually be able to persuade reg- Will they always be too big to fail? little has been done to meaningfully ulators and politicians to ease off. shrink the region’s largest banks. Whether changes to date are suffi- BY PETER EAVIS ‘‘It’s too early to say how one judges cient or inadequate has not been tested the last five years of reform,’’ said John in any big way. In addition to the chal- From the Gordon Gekko 1980s until the Vickers, an Oxford professor of econom- lenges that arose in 2008, the Chinese mortgage meltdown in 2007-8, the finan- ics who headed Britain’s commission on economy and banking system have cial industry came to dominate the overhauling banks. ‘‘Much depends on added much uncertainty to the mix. world economy. On this extraordinary the next five.’’ All this makes predicting how banks and sometimes terrifying ride, banks The shift can be hard to track because will perform over the next few years dif- reaped incredible profits while manage- it involves the intricate ways in which ficult. Much of what they did over the ment and staff received generous sala- banks make money. But the numbers past three decades looked innovative ries and lush bonuses. show that measures introduced since and appeared profitable at the time. And then everything fell apart. Even- the crisis are steadily depriving banks How constraints, either new or under tually governments had to step in to bail of some financial and political advant- discussion, will change banking prac- out or shut many financial institutions. ages that fueled their growth for years. tices or inhibit the kinds of profitable- Five years after the crisis, some par- The importance of the political dimen- but-risky innovations that marked the ticipants and close observers of the sion is hard to overstate. During fi- industry’s recent history is not clear. world of finance see a generational nance’s most powerful period, the in- In the 1980s, the innovation was the humbling of the big banks under way. dustry exercised far-reaching influence junk bond, so named because it offered For the first time in nearly 30 years, on governments and regulators. higher yields than other bonds to offset they say, finance is starting to look a bit These days, however, the politics ap- the additional risk. During the 1990s, de- more like a normal industry. pear to be shifting, with more elected of- JUSTIN JIN FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES ‘‘The future’s going to be different,’’ ficials backing measures that restrain ‘‘They have created even larger institutions that, said Richard W. Fisher, president of the the financial industry. In the United in the eyes of the marketplace, are even more Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and a States, for instance, Republicans and A NEW REVOLUTION IN CHINA? former Wall Street banker and hedge Democrats have in recent months assuredly backstopped by the government. fund manager. Though he thinks some jointly sponsored bills in Congress that That is bad news for the real economy.’’ WANG HUI Professor, Tsinghua University, spe- financial institutions are still too large, would make the banking overhaul cialist in Chinese thought, modernity and the West he believes important progress has been stricter. How they will fare in the face of made since the crisis. ‘‘The big, complex intense lobbying remains to be seen. rivatives — financial instruments that Many people have predicted an ‘‘Arab banks have been chastened,’’ he said. In this debate, in the United States let people bet on the prices of underly- Spring’’ or an ‘‘Occupy Wall Street’’ for ‘‘There will be more hitting of singles and Europe, banks are no longer seen as ing assets — started to become a huge China. But the expected revolution hasn’t and less swinging for the fences.’’ companies whose demands must be moneymaker and have remained so. The extent to which banks have been met to generate prosperity. Instead, When banks ran out of creditworthy occurred. Not because social conflict constrained is open to debate, espe- they are increasingly viewed as entities people and institutions to lend to, they doesn’t exist or there are no problems with cially in the view of regulators and of that benefit from a range of subsidies focused on borrowers who were a less- China’s development. I disagree with the critics who continue to see the industry and often engage in activities that can certain prospect. Starting 10 years ago, prediction that China will collapse. I think as creating risks to the economy even as harm economic growth. this led to the proliferation of push-the- China is in the process of rising. There is it reaps the benefits of a recovery that Philippe Lamberts, a member of the envelope mortgage products, like ‘‘liar still much room for industrial transfer. Up- has done little for most working people. European Parliament, led efforts to loans,’’ which did not require much doc- grading, urbanization and industrialization Most banks are profitable, and profits pass a law this year to cap bankers’ bo- umentation, and option adjustable-rate have been rising steadily since the nuses. He was elected in 2009, repre- mortgages, which offered borrowers will continue. Crises, setbacks and the in- crisis. In fact, for the second quarter of senting Ecolo, a Belgian green party, choices like paying only interest rather tensification of social contradictions don’t this year, banks in the United States re- after a 22-year career at I.B.M. He said than principal and interest. Many of change this; they are byproducts of it. But ported total earnings of more than $42 he had changed his views on finance in these were fed into the Wall Street ma- economic growth will not resolve social con- billion, a record. Few criminal charges the past decade after deciding that it chine and spat out in the form of com- tradictions. In other words, social conflict in have been brought against the archi- was having a negative influence on the plex bets; sometimes these collateral- China may intensify, not because it is about tects of the 2008 disasters. And govern- wider economy. ized debt obligations were assembled to collapse, but because it is moving up in ments have left the largest financial in- ‘‘Everything that can be done to bring just so investors could bet on the likeli- the world system. That’s why the question stitutions intact, leaving the the financial industry back to what it’s hood of a housing crash. controversial notion of ‘‘too big to fail,’’ supposed to do, should be done,’’ Mr. ‘‘You could experiment a lot,’’ Bob of changing the mode of development has and the systemic risk that it brings, Lamberts said. Contri, a principal at Deloitte Consult- become so urgent. alive and well. Banking lobbyists say that doing too BANKS, PAGE S13 . INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | S13 finance turning the page

U.S. financial industry profits recovered after the ... while banks in Britain have reduced their high level ... and there are big differences in the amount of financial crisis, but remain below the 2000-06 average ... of leverage ... leverage taken on by large global banks. THE CAMPUS’S PLACE IN AN ONLINE WORLD

MARY SUE COLEMAN President, University 40 % U.S. FINANCIAL INDUSTRY PROFITS 35 WEIGHTED AVERAGE LEVERAGE ESTIMATED BANK LEVERAGE RATIOS, Q2 2013 OF BRITISH BANKS of Michigan Deutsche Bank 52 35 2000-05 avg. 30 Massive open online courses (MOOCs) are 1ST HALF Barclays 37 32% the current buzz in higher education, with 30 2013 25 UBS 34 good reason. They offer students from In- 25 BNP Paribas 28 dia, Brazil, Ghana and beyond remarkable opportunities to learn from scholars world- 20 JPMorgan Chase 26 20 wide. This sharing of knowledge is a pro- As a percentage UniCredit 26 foundly democratic, and democratizing, use of total U.S. 15 15 corporate profits Bank of America 26 of technology. For every MOOC with 150,000 enrolled students, however, higher educa- 10 Royal Bank of Scotland 26 10 Amount by tion must continue to deliver the unique ex- Société Générale 24 which a bank’s perience of a campus. No other chapter in 5 5 HSBC 18 assets exceed its life parallels the exploration, risk-taking equity, adjusted for and freedom — both intellectual and per- 0 0 Bank of China 16 intangible assets. sonal — of college. Higher education must '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 Wells Fargo 13 use technology to share knowledge as Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Federal broadly as possible, while also providing Deposit Insurance Corp.; Bank of England Note: Data on individual banks’ leverage are Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. estimates, under international accounting standards. students with an atmosphere that is enga- ging, palpable and unlike any other. Innova- tions in technology may enrich the on-cam- BANKS, FROM PAGE S12 sector in the United States accounted on ‘‘The banks will continue to provide pus experiences, but cannot replace them. ing, said about the precrisis days. average for 32 percent of total domestic the financial innovation and skills for Now, the banks cannot make as much profits, double the figure for the 1980s. the global economy, and the regulators use of a risky financial strategy they re- Of course, gearing up to those levels have done a good job of significantly im- lied on for years: borrowing more had a dark side: banks did not have the proving the risk profile of the large money to finance their activities. By us- financial strength to absorb losses when banks,’’ said James E. Staley, a former ing such leverage, they could pay their everything came crashing down. That is head of JPMorgan Chase’s investment employees more and bolster returns for why regulators are forcing them to pare bank and now a managing partner at their shareholders. it back, and debates are raging on ac- Blue Mountain Capital, a hedge fund. He But many banks stretched their bor- ceptable levels of leverage. said that one area where banks could rowing to a dangerous degree, taking it One consequence of reduced leverage still find lucrative business was in devel- to far higher levels than existed at non- is that large financial companies are oping countries, despite a recent rout in financial companies. finding it hard to post solid returns on those markets. For instance, in 2006, just before the their capital. But in the opinion of some banking first tremors of the crisis, a company From 2010 through 2012, Deutsche specialists, the overhaul has simply cre- like Walmart was effectively borrowing Bank, one of the largest financial firms, ated an elite group of government-pro- $59 to finance every $100 of assets on its made profit that was on average equiv- tected banks, those that are ‘‘too big to balance sheet. Citigroup, by contrast, alent to 5 percent of its shareholders’ fail,’’ whose dominance is likely to stifle was borrowing $94. By more conserva- equity, well below the average of 14 per- competition in the financial sector. tive measures, the bank was even more cent it made in the three years through ‘‘They have created even larger insti- leveraged. 2006. tutions that, in the eyes of the market- Some of the biggest British banks that In many ways, regulators like this place, are even more assuredly back- collapsed in the crisis had stratospheric outcome. The lower returns could lead stopped by the government,’’ said levels of borrowing. ‘‘It was from the to the sort of changes they want to see. Kevin M. Warsh, who was a governor at late ’90s that it really revved up,’’ Mr. If large banks cannot get strong profits the Federal Reserve during the crisis Vickers said. ‘‘There was tremendous in some businesses, they may sell them and is now a visiting fellow at the regulatory permissiveness.’’ or get out of them, leading to a more ef- Hoover Institution at Stanford Universi- With all that money to play with, fi- ficient industry. There is some evidence ty. ‘‘That is bad news for the real econo- nancial activity exploded. that is happening. my.’’ In 1990, global financial assets, which Mr. Contri of Deloitte said the new en- Other officials are more optimistic. include loans, bonds and stocks, totaled vironment was prompting many banks Mr. Fisher of the Dallas Fed noted that $56 trillion, or 263 percent of the gross to exit businesses with lackluster pros- Texas was relatively unscathed in the world product, according to the McKin- pects. ‘‘Everyone’s focus now is around 2008 crisis, in part because it had im- sey Global Institute. By 2007, there was finding growth,’’ he said. posed lending restrictions after a bank- $206 trillion of such assets, equivalent to Big banks will adapt and thrive, ac- ing crisis that ravaged the state in the 355 percent of gross world product. cording to some executives in the finan- 1980s. Naturally, banks’ bottom lines bal- cial industry, because their services are ‘‘This doesn’t mean the end of Amer- looned. From 2000 to 2005, the financial needed to generate economic growth. ican capitalism,’’ Mr. Fisher said. CHRISTOPHER CAPOZZIELLO FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

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3 6 . S14 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES turning the page film

Film by any other name Technology is changing what it means to make movies — and to watch them. But it’s no reason to lose faith in cinema

BY A.O. SCOTT In a little more than a century, the movies have grown from a somewhat disreputable fairground novelty into — well, what exactly? A singularly elastic modern art form that has triumphantly synthesized, and at times threatened to displace, all the others. A global indus- try that feeds the endless public appet- ite for fantasy and spectacle. A technol- ogy that continues to evolve with star- tling rapidity, reinventing itself in every generation, with sound, color, wide- screen, C.G.I., 3-D … Lately this technological transforma- tion has seemed to threaten the art and the business with obsolescence. The ar- rival of what is now just called ‘‘digital’’ — an all-purpose noun and an adjective modifying everything — has thrown the movie world into a state of linguistic confusion that mirrors the general sense of disarray and existential doubt. Can you call something a ‘‘film’’ that has been recorded, edited and exhib- ited by entirely non-photochemical means, that is to say without any film at all? Are you ‘‘at the movies’’ when you are streaming a feature on your tablet or browsing the on-demand menu on your television? In what sense does whatever you are watching right now — the TED talk, the comedy sketch, the Nicolas-Cage-losing-it supercut, OMG look at that kitten!!!!! — deserve the name ‘‘cinema’’? If we want to try to comprehend the CRISTÓBAL SCHMAL current state and possible future of this medium (which is also a pastime, an art form, an industry and a gestalt), we static images reproduced in magazines nosticism’’ in which we all watch any- novative, paradigm-shifting kind that perhaps unsustainable mix of niche might have to revert to an older vocab- and newspapers and on advertising thing anywhere, on whatever electron- signals a brave new digital reality. Not products and tent poles. Each year, a ulary and start talking, the way our billboards, a dystopian intimation that ically illuminated surface is handy. A long ago, the technology writer Anil handful of action movies, usually based great-grandparents did, about moving now seems downright quaint. Her plea, more pessimistic view sees a Hobbes- Dash caused a bit of an Internet ruckus on comic books or earlier movies, land pictures. They pervade our environ- in the face of such wild proliferation, for ian war for human attention in which with a blog post arguing that texting in theaters on every continent seeking ment to an extent scarcely imaginable an ‘‘ecology of images’’ has been over- the DVR competes with the multiplex and second-screen browsing in movie to recover the hundreds of millions of in the science fiction movies of earlier whelmed by the pandemic-like spread and the churchly communal concentra- theaters was not a scourge, but a sign of dollars spent on their making and mar- generations or the gleanings of cultural not just of images but also of the tion of the cinema is disrupted by the progress. With exemplary contrarian- keting. Their place of origin is still re- soothsayers. screens that carry them. annoying flickering of smartphones. ism and more than a hint of tongue-in- ferred to as Hollywood, but in fact their In her 1977 book ‘‘On Photography,’’ The dogma of digital progress asserts But what to some is a breach of cheek outrage-trolling, he attacked the provenance is as international as their Susan Sontag could contemplate, with the equivalence of those screens, fore- etiquette represents, to others, a differ- ‘‘shushers’’ as ‘‘cultural conserva- desired audience. The capital and labor great alarm, a world overrun by the telling a happy state of ‘‘platform ag- ent kind of disruption — the groovy, in- tives’’ and over-entitled first-world behind these productions is found in snobs, and likened their insistence Europe and Asia as well as in Califor- on undisturbed movie-watching to cli- nia, and increasingly in economically mate-change denial and belief in a flat and culturally ambitious countries like earth. Brazil, China, India and Russia. The outrage that ensued was amus- The movies will only get bigger, shi- ing, but its intensity may have had less nier and more thoroughly standard- to do with wobbling standards of beha- ized, like airports and hotels in big, vior — which vary, as Mr. Dash noted, business-hub capitals. But this is only across nations, cultures, neighbor- half the story. At the same time, they hoods and generations — than with col- are becoming smaller, more local, more lapsing hierarchies and boundaries. particular, like the farm-to-table restau- For a relatively brief phase of their rants and craft boutiques in those same history —what we think of now as the cities. Tools and skills have become A RACING MACHINE ON THE WRIST classical era, from around the start of cheaper and more accessible. You can the First World War until a few years now shoot video on a smartphone, mix after the end of the Second — moving sound and edit on your laptop and post pictures were confined to theaters, the result on a sharing or social net- some of which were as ornate as working site. palaces and vast as cathedrals. When This will not make you the next God- pictures migrated into homes in the ard, but it does mean that the Godards middle of the last century, movies suc- of the future may well emerge from pre- cessfully fought to hold on to, and even viously invisible corners of the moving- to extend, their glory and prestige. picture universe. It is no coincidence Television ended the monopoly of theat- that these are boom times for art rical screens, but it hardly doomed the cinema, and also for film festivals, movies. Instead, the spread of TV in which a few years ago seemed to teeter the 1950s and ’60s coincided with a peri- on the brink of irrelevance. Now they od of technical innovation (widescreen, have emerged as an alternative distri- color, the first wave of 3-D) and artistic bution network and a kind of floating ambition. seminar, where filmmakers trade influ- The idea of cinema as a rarefied art ence, scramble for money and present form, and not merely a popular art, their work to sympathetic audiences. dates from the era of television. The The sheer range and diversity of this rise of the blockbuster, a world-con- quering spectacle that everyone on the Tools and skills are more accessible. This won’t planet would line up to see, coincides make you the next Godard, but the Godards of with the expansion of cable television and VCR ownership. Home viewing did the future may well emerge from previously not kill the movies, as was widely invisible corners of the moving-picture universe. feared; it made them stronger. And they remained, until the beginning of the present century, the undisputed work are staggering. Fifty years ago flagship of the global culture industry. you could claim cinematic cosmopolit- It is this dominance now that seems anism if you had some acquaintance imperiled, perhaps paradoxically, by with movies from France, Italy and Ja- the global triumph of the portable, ubiq- pan, with an odd Swedish or Soviet uitous, infinitely replicable moving im- name thrown into the mix. age. The church of cinema is suffering a Now you need to keep up with Thai- crisis of faith. Conventional wisdom land, Greece, Chile, Romania, South holds that television is better, as Amer- Africa and scores of other places where ican cable shows (sometimes remade international co-financing, national tax from Danish, Israeli and British origi- policies and local ambition have nals) fuel sophisticated conversations sparked a renaissance in ambitious, ad- in the way that certain movies used to. venturous and necessarily thrifty film- And the movies themselves are suffer- making. ing, if not necessarily a loss in quality, Both the metastasis of the block- then a lapse in respect and a diminution buster and the viral replication of the of prestige. small-scale art movie are digital phe- It can certainly seem that way. But nomena. The spectacular sublimity of there is some cognitive dissonance in the big movies — those expensive the idea that the triumph of motion pic- flights of wonder and destruction — is tures entails — this time for real! — the enabled by the art and ingenuity of pro- death of movies. To worry that it does is grammers and animators who can cre- to risk sliding into a reactionary, ate ever more seamless and complex il- wrong-side of history mind-set, like lusions. But the same technology has those who argued that the rise of circu- made portable cameras, sophisticated lating libraries or paperback books editing software and socially net- spelled the decline of literature. worked distribution widely available. They were right, at least to the extent In the future, everyone will be an that the mass circulation of printed auteur. matter helped to widen the scope and Cinema has always been an activity, alter the style of literary discourse, a form of engagement with reality that CALIBER RM 016 turning an elite activity into a popular has the power to transform it. That diversion. Movies, of course, were mass power is concentrated as never before, entertainment before they were art, and also available as never before. Or and have always been a hectic hybrid of maybe, much as it has always been. We the commercial and the sublime, the make our own movies — in our heads, esoteric and the easily digested. They at our desks, in the crowded darkness www.richardmille.com have also always changed, mutated, or the solitary flicker of the screen in cross-pollinated and spread. That will our hands. only continue. What does the future look like? You The global film business is an odd, tell me. . INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | S15 sports turning the page

All the world at play both from Yugoslavia and far more suc- From basketball to ice hockey to rugby, cessful in the N.B.A. than Paspalj.) the opportunities of global markets Larry Brown, who was then the Spurs’ coach, had the common suspicions about are reshaping the business of sports international players. It did not help that Paspalj had seldom been asked to play BY JERÉ LONGMAN defense in his career and adhered to a training regimen that included copious During an off-season workout on a late amounts of pizza and cigarettes. August morning, the San Antonio Popovich believed so strongly in Spurs’ practice was a veritable United Paspalj that he invited the forward to Nations of hoops. As Tim Duncan, the live with him. And he took Paspalj to a certain Hall of Fame forward from the clinic in Boston, where a Russian doctor U.S. Virgin Islands, prepared for anoth- was supposed to be expert at curing er grind of a season, he was joined by smoking through hypnosis. Alas, the the centers Tiago Splitter of Brazil and cure remained elusive. Aron Baynes of Australia. The true globalization of the N.B.A. Also on the court were Sean Marks, a began in 1992, after the United States New Zealander who is the team’s direc- had somewhat reluctantly sent Michael tor of basketball operations, and Ime Jordan, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and Udoka, an assistant coach who once other pro stars to play as the ‘‘Dream played for Nigeria’s national team. Team’’ at the Barcelona Olympics. At Monitoring the workout was Daisuke the time, the N.B.A. had fewer than two Yamaguchi, an assistant athletic trainer dozen international players represent- from Japan. ing 18 countries. This worldly mix is a glittering ex- Attitudes began to shift after those ample of the globalization of modern Olympics. David Stern, the N.B.A. com- professional sports. From basketball missioner at the time, made internation- and soccer to rugby, ice hockey and al exposure of the league a priority. By baseball, more and more players are last season, N.B.A. rosters included 85 competing for teams in leagues outside players from 36 nations and territories. their native country. And globalization In the first round of the 2013 draft, 12 in- runs through the sports world in several ternational players were selected, a directions simultaneously: internation- league record. al scouting and recruitment of talent; Ten or 15 years ago, international distribution of games through broad- players began to seem less entitled and casting and the Web; sales of players’ more fundamentally sound than some jerseys and other merchandise around American players, Popovich said. the world, and cross-border investing in He said the league had become ‘‘more team ownership. and more of a highlight-film-ESPN sort In San Antonio, the Spurs’ interna- of sport, where people just practiced tional diversity, which includes the stars dunking and doing individual things and Tony Parker of France and Manu Ginó- got away from the real basics — the team bili of Argentina, reflects the curiosity, BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE play, ball movement, people movement.’’ open-mindedness and acumen of the ‘‘I think we’ve started to get back to coach, Gregg Popovich, 64, who is in his that now,’’ he added. ‘‘The pendulum 18th season. where a landmark 1995 ruling opened up Diverse fortunes has definitely changed.’’ When Popovich joined the Spurs as an the movement of players across borders. Gregg Popovich, the San Antonio Spurs coach, with his players Manu The Spurs regard their global di- assistant in 1988, the National Basketball Broadcasting and the Web are now Ginóbili of Argentina, Tony Parker of France and Tim Duncan of the U.S. versity as a great strength. Association had few non-American play- the main drivers of this globalization, Virgin Islands during the N.B.A. Finals in June. The team’s embrace of ‘‘The team being so multicultural, it ers. There was a widespread perception drawing viewers almost anywhere in international talent has led to four N.B.A. championships since 1999. forces guys to communicate, to go out to that international players were uncoach- the world to watch sports of their dinner, to tell their stories,’’ said Marks, able because they did not fit in socially, choice. Sports merchandise is also sold the director of basketball operations. grew homesick, did not speak English widely, sometimes through local shops, ‘‘It forces them to figure out that Aus- fluently and did not play defense. more often over the Web, generating tralia is not part of New Zealand. And it Popovich did not agree and per- tens of millions of dollars in revenue. It’s gives Pop a unique avenue to reach out suaded the Spurs to draft European not uncommon to see an F.C. Barcelona to those guys. One of his messages is, players. And San Antonio became one of soccer jersey in the New York subway ‘Life is much bigger than basketball.’’’ the most ambitiously global sports fran- or a New York Yankees baseball cap in chises in North America — and one of the streets of London. Not all professional leagues succeed ‘‘Let’s not worry where they’re from, let’s worry internationally. The N.F.L. sponsored a about how they play and what their character is league in Europe but gave up when it failed to catch on. It has had more suc- and their interest in being part of a team.’’ cess with N.F.L. GamePass, a subscrip- tion service that offers high-definition game broadcasts live or on demand. the most successful. During the 2013 Major League Baseball has put re- N.B.A. Finals against Miami, the Spurs’ sources in trying to get the Chinese in- 15 players included nine born outside terested in baseball, with no notable the continental United States, a league success — despite the enthusiasm for record. After the playoffs, San Antonio baseball in Japan, South Korea and Tai- signed a 10th international player and wan, not to mention in Central America drafted a forward from France. and the Caribbean. This embrace of international talent How San Antonio, a city of 1.3 million has led to four championships since 1999 in southern Texas, became an embodi- and a run of prodigious consistency. The ment of sports globalization has a lot to Spurs have won 50 or more games for 14 do with Popovich. No current coach has consecutive seasons and have reached embraced the N.B.A.’s international ex- Creative Center RD, Creative Director Alvaro Maggini the playoffs 16 straight years. pansion more than him. ‘‘All I think we’ve done is we’ve Born into a diverse neighborhood in looked at basketball players and not East Chicago, Indiana, of Serbian and tried to put a border to them,’’ said R.C. Croatian heritage, he graduated in 1970 Buford, the Spurs’ general manager. from the U.S. Air Force Academy with a ‘‘Let’s not worry where they’re from, degree in Soviet studies, toured Eastern let’s worry about how they play and Europe with teams representing the what their character is and their in- armed forces and the Amateur Athletic terest in being part of a team.’’ Union, and later served as an intelligence The Spurs’ success both embraces officer. He also toured South America. the globalization of sports and inspires ‘‘It didn’t matter whether it was other N.B.A. teams to follow it. Czechoslovakia or Argentina or Brazil,’’ Last season’s N.B.A. finals, for ex- he recalled. ‘‘There were great players ample, were available for viewing in 215 everywhere.’’ countries and territories in 47 lan- He is a coach with an ecumenical in- guages. When the Chinese star Yao terest in food, wine, politics and current Ming played for the Houston Rockets events. As a result, San Antonio has be- from 2002 to 2011, broadcasts in China come ‘‘a mecca for international play- attracted tens of millions of viewers and ers,’’ said Vlade Divac, a former N.B.A. sponsors eager to reach them. center who is now president of the Ser- In soccer, the entire English Premier bian Olympic Committee. ‘‘Pop was the League season is broadcast in more guy who opened the doors,’’ he added. than 200 countries, reaching 643 million ‘‘You know that if you go there, you will households. get a chance to show what you can do.’’ To build fan bases and audiences, top Outside the United States, basketball leagues in various sports now schedule players, like soccer players and other games outside their home countries. athletes, tend to develop in club sys- This coming season, eight N.B.A. teams tems rather than in school-based sys- will play abroad, with games in Brazil, tems, and face few or no limits on prac- Britain, China, the Philippines, Spain, tice time. Coaching tends to be centrally Taiwan and Turkey. Four National Foot- structured through national federations ball League teams will play in London. with an emphasis on fundamentals and Many of the world’s top soccer teams teamwork. Exposure to international now routinely play preseason matches play is high, beginning at the youth around the world. In the United States, level. Players often turn professional as those matches regularly sell out large teenagers. American football stadiums and gener- Baynes, the Spurs’ Australian center, ate enough of an audience that Fox, attended Washington State University, ESPN and NBC have been enthusiastic then played professionally in Lithuania, bidders for U.S. rights to games. NBC Germany, Greece and Slovenia before recently signed a $250 million deal for joining San Antonio in January. three-year rights to show all Premier ‘‘In Europe we had 15-year-olds train- League matches in the United States, ing with us every day,’’ he said. ‘‘When I using its cable networks and Web sites. first started, no way I would have had The global popularity of the Premier the confidence to step out there and play League and its top clubs, including Ar- with some of these guys. But in Europe, senal, Chelsea, Manchester United and I saw guys competing with grown men Manchester City, has also drawn foreign every day. It makes them better.’’ investment; half of the 20 teams now When Popovich became an assistant have foreign owners, including from coach with the Spurs in 1988, he urged After two centuries of tourbillons, discover Quatuor, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and the team to expand its international the United States. Foreign money has scouting, and in 1989, just before the fall a new way to compensate for gravity. started pouring into soccer teams else- of the Berlin Wall, he convinced the where in Europe, too, like in France, Spurs to sign a Yugoslav forward, Zarko Technological Advances in Fine Watchmaking, where Paris Saint-Germain and Paspalj, who was a steady shooter, a by Roger Dubuis. Monaco have been bought by wealthy vaulting jumper and a willing passer. owners from abroad who have invested At the time, N.B.A. rosters included millions in their clubs. only five players from Central or East- And the wealth available for talent ern Europe. (That same year, the Nets More information on www.rogerdubuis.com brings the best players from Africa and signed Drazen Petrovic and the Los South America to teams in Europe, Angeles Lakers added Vlade Divac, . S16 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES turning the page globalization

Asia’s challenge to Europe Michigan, ‘‘It’ll have a labor force more the already large budget deficit and lim- The economies of China and India could like Europe’s, it’ll have an infrastruc- it the government’s ability to build scarcely be more different, yet each will ture more like Europe’s, it’ll have levels needed ports and highways for manu- of foreign investment that will make it facturers. test the Continent’s ability to adapt more competitive.’’ India also has a two-tier labor system A quadrupling of blue-collar wages in like Europe’s. Employees of govern- BY KEITH BRADSHER the past decade has made China in- ment agencies and state-controlled en- creasingly uncompetitive in areas like terprises like Bharat Petroleum receive The BaShiTong food court, a collection garment manufacturing and shoemak- relatively high wages, as do the union- of small eateries on the third floor of an ing, which are shifting to poorer coun- ized workers of large manufacturers, office building in central Chongqing, tries in Asia. But the result has been an still heavily protected from foreign com- China, closed this summer just three accelerated shift by Chinese industry in- petition. Their high salaries come partly months after it opened. Workers sued to higher-value sectors vital to Europe. at the expense of widespread unem- for back wages. The owner of one spot Partly as a result, China’s appetite for ployment, extremely low wages and an lost all his savings and barged into the European exports is faltering, even as inflated cost of living for the rest of soci- office of the food court’s promoter with a Chinese exports to Europe keep rising. ety. propane tank, taking him hostage and China already buys only half as much Budget deficits and an uncompetitive threatening to blow the place up by ig- worth of European exports as the manufacturing sector have crippled the niting the tank. United States, even as Europe now im- rupee, whose value has dropped steeply It was Chinese capitalism in action: ports far more from China than any- in currency markets this year. That has very messy, often unfair, sometimes viol- where else. China’s purchases from made European exports much less af- ent. But the BaShiTong hostage incident Europe fell slightly in the first half of fordable in India. At the same time, In- ended quietly. While litigation continues EUROPEAN PRESSPHOTO AGENCY this year from a year earlier. over the back wages, workers quickly Swiss watches and French wines may Swiss watches and French wines get a lot of found new jobs, sometimes less stressful Full speed ahead receive a lot of attention, but the three attention, but the three dominant European ones. Zheng Feng, the athletic, 28-year- China has built national networks of bullet trains, quadrupled its output dominant categories of European ex- old former manager of a dumpling shop of graduates in the past decade and acquired the latest foreign ports are industrial machinery, vehicles exports are industrial machinery, vehicles and in the food court, now sells sportswear at inventions through joint ventures and technology transfer agreements. and electrical machinery (mainly com- electrical machinery. China is ramping up its a fashionable shop nearby. puter components). China is ramping own production rapidly in all three. ‘‘It is much easier — plus the air-con- up its own production rapidly in all ditioning is better here,’’ he said. three, and stepping up exports to over- Almost 3,700 kilometers, or 2,300 BaShiTong and Bharat Petroleum il- Businesses like BaShiTong can and do seas markets that used to buy from dia’s huge outsourcing industry has be- miles, to the southwest of Chongqing lies lustrate several facets of the Chinese fail quickly in China. But the resources Europe as well. come much more competitive in euro the sprawling, overcrowded city of and Indian economies. The economies are swiftly absorbed elsewhere. The Walk the noisy aisles of the IGP car terms. Mumbai, the commercial capital of In- could scarcely be more different. Yet country has proved uncommonly adapt- and truck axle factory, which opened in Many European companies are dia. Bharat Petroleum, a state-controlled each represents a formidable challenge able to opportunities in a wide range of Jakarta in 1987, and the European and already shifting large chunks of their oil company in India whose sales rank it for Europe in the years ahead. markets — including Europe’s. Japanese brand names on the manufac- computer programming, legal, account- in the top 250 multinationals, has its Chancellor Angela Merkel of Ger- To be sure, China and India share two turing equipment are conspicuous. But ing and architectural design divisions to headquarters in a dilapidated building in many repeated tirelessly during her suc- serious handicaps: chronic corruption that is the exception these days: India. The rupee’s fall makes the sav- the city’s oldest British colonial neigh- cessful re-election campaign this year and pollution. Both problems are partic- Chinese equipment is flooding into fac- ings from doing so even larger. Rapid borhood. A rickety, claustrophobic elev- that Europe has only 7 percent of the ularly troublesome for their people and tories all over Indonesia. expansion of Indian universities since ator takes visitors up to the chairman’s world’s population and produces 25 per- their economies. Project delays and ‘‘They make it so cheap that no one 2006 makes it unlikely that the country elegant office, tastefully decorated with cent of the world’s economic output, but substandard quality associated with can compete,’’ said Sofjan Wanandi, the will run short of educated workers, abstract paintings in vivid blues. represents 50 percent of the world’s so- corruption, and eventual cleanup costs tycoon who partly owns the factory. while rising wages and declining com- Raj K. Singh, the company’s chair- cial spending. Sustaining those lopsided associated with pollution, affect their India’s challenge to Europe is differ- petitiveness for them do not seem to be man and managing director, smiled percentages requires that Europe re- competitiveness. But they do not offset ent from China’s, but a potent one as arriving any time soon. when asked in late August how it main at the forefront of competitiveness. the impressive gains that both coun- well. In a strange way, India’s often self- With 20.7 million university students treated its workers. Unionized employ- Europe needs to produce quickly and ef- tries, especially China, have made in re- inflicted economic wounds are actually enrolled by 2010, India passed the Euro- ees performing even menial jobs earned ficiently a wide range of goods and ser- cent years, and continue to make. making it a tougher competitor for pean Union, with 20 million, that year. the equivalent of $560 a month until this vices that the rest of the world is willing China has quadrupled its output of Europe, by weakening India’s cur- Both trail China, at 31 million. summer, when a new labor agreement to work much longer and harder to buy. graduates in the past decade, built na- rency. In an Internet-linked world, that raised their pay to $800 a month. That will not be easy. The problems tional networks of bullet trains and India is trying to create what in many means China and India have many Nonunion workers in India doing the for Europe look formidable. modern highways, and acquired the ways is a low-rent replica of the Euro- trained minds looking for business op- same tasks earn as little as $50 a month, China has embraced a version of the latest foreign inventions through joint pean model of social democracy. Parlia- portunities, and not just huge numbers he said. The company’s losses, mainly rapidly churning, sometimes Darwini- ventures and technology transfer ment, acutely conscious of national elec- of unskilled laborers. ‘‘We should not the result of fuel price regulations but an capitalism of the United States, in- agreements. In the years to come, said tions next year, voted to distribute think in terms of bodies,’’ said Ajay also its own high costs, are heavily sub- cluding an almost American acceptance Mary Gallagher, director of the Center subsidized food to two-thirds of the pop- Kapur, an economist at Bank of America sidized by Indian taxpayers. of large holes in the social safety net. for Chinese Studies at the University of ulation. That program could increase Merrill Lynch, ‘‘but in terms of brains.’’ . INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | S17 Opinion turning the page

inequality is an inevitable byproduct of Inequality globalization, the free movement of labor, capital, goods and services, and technological change that favors better- skilled and better-educated employees. Of the advanced economies, America is a choice has some of the worst disparities in in- comes and opportunities, with devastat- ing macroeconomic consequences. The The chasm Joseph E. Stiglitz gross domestic product of the United in income States has more than quadrupled in the and wealth last 40 years and nearly doubled in the last 25, but as is now well known, the results NEW YORK It’s well known by now that benefits have gone to the top — and in- more from income and wealth inequality in most creasingly to the very, very top. political rich countries, especially the United Last year, the top 1 percent of Ameri- States, have soared in recent decades cans took home 22 percent of the nation’s decisions and, tragically, worsened even more income; the top 0.1 percent, 11 percent. than eco- since the Great Recession. But what Ninety-five percent of all income gains nomic about the rest of the world? Is the gap since 2009 have gone to the top 1 percent. between countries narrowing, as rising Recently released census figures show forces. economic powers like China and India that median income in America hasn’t have lifted hundreds of millions of budged in almost a quarter-century. The people from poverty? And within poor typical American man makes less than and middle-income countries, is in- he did 45 years ago (after adjusting for equality getting worse or better? Are inflation); men who graduated from we moving toward a more fair world, or high school but don’t have four-year col- a more unjust one? lege degrees make almost 40 percent These are complex questions, and less than they did four decades ago. new research by a World Bank econo- American inequality began its up- mist named Branko Milanovic, along swing 30 years ago, along with tax de- with other scholars, points the way to creases for the rich and the easing of some answers. regulations on the financial sector. Starting in the 18th century, the in- That’s no coincidence. It has worsened dustrial revolution produced giant as we have under-invested in our infra- wealth for Europe and North America. structure, education and health care Of course, inequality within these systems, and social safety nets. Rising countries was appalling — think of the inequality reinforces itself by corroding textile mills of Liverpool and our political system and our democratic Manchester, England, in the 1820s, and governance. the tenements of the Lower East Side And Europe seems all too eager to fol- of Manhattan and the South Side of low America’s bad example. The em- Chicago in the 1890s — but the gap be- brace of austerity, from Britain to Ger- tween the rich and the rest, as a global many, is leading to high unemployment, phenomenon, widened even more, falling wages and increasing inequality. right up through about World War II. Officials like Angela Merkel, the newly To this day, inequality between coun- tries is far greater than inequality Some countries will have the wisdom and will within countries. to attack inequality, and others won’t. But starting around the fall of Com- munism in the late 1980s, economic globalization accelerated and the gap re-elected German chancellor, and between nations began to shrink. The Mario Draghi, president of the European period from 1988 to 2008 ‘‘might have Central Bank, argue that Europe’s prob- witnessed the first decline in global in- lems are a result of a bloated welfare equality between world citizens since spending. But that line of thinking has the Industrial Revolution,’’ Mr. Milan- only taken Europe into recession (and ovic, who was born in the former even depression). That things may have Yugoslavia and is the author of ‘‘The bottomed out — that the recession may Haves and the Have-Nots: A Brief and be ‘‘officially’’ over — is little comfort to Idiosyncratic History of Global In- the 27 million out of a job in the E.U. On equality,’’ wrote in a paper published both sides of the Atlantic, the austerity last November. While the gap between fanatics say, march on: these are the bit- some regions has markedly narrowed ter pills that we need to take to achieve — namely, between Asia and the ad- prosperity. But prosperity for whom? vanced economies of the West — huge Excessive financialization — which gaps remain. Average global incomes, helps explain Britain’s dubious status as by country, have moved closer together the second-most-unequal country, after over the last several decades, particu- the United States, among the world’s larly on the strength of the growth of most advanced economies — also helps China and India. But overall equality explain the soaring inequality. In many across humanity, considered as indi- countries, weak corporate governance viduals, has improved very little. (The and eroding social cohesion have led to Gini coefficient, a measurement of in- increasing gaps between the pay of equality, improved by just 1.4 points chief executives and that of ordinary from 2002 to 2008.) workers — not yet approaching the 500- So while nations in Asia, the Middle to-1 level for America’s biggest compa- East and Latin America, as a whole, nies (as estimated by the International might be catching up with the West, the Labor Organization) but still greater poor everywhere are left behind, even than pre-recession levels. (Japan, which in places like China where they’ve ben- has curbed executive pay, is a notable efited somewhat from rising living exception.) American innovations in standards. rent-seeking — enriching oneself not by From 1988 to 2008, Mr. Milanovic making the size of the economic pie big- found, people in the world’s top 1 per- ger but by manipulating the system to cent saw their incomes increase by 60 seize a larger slice — have gone global. percent, while those in the bottom 5 Asymmetric globalization has also ex- percent had no change in their income. erted its toll around the globe. Mobile capital has demanded that workers By embracing austerity, Europe seems to be make wage concessions and govern- following America’s example: soaring inequality. ments make tax concessions. The result is a race to the bottom. Wages and work- ing conditions are being threatened. Pi- And while median incomes have oneering firms like Apple, whose work greatly improved in recent decades, relies on enormous advances in science there are still enormous imbalances: 8 and technology, many of them financed percent of humanity takes home 50 per- by government, have also shown great cent of global income; the top 1 percent dexterity in avoiding taxes. They are alone takes home 15 percent. Income willing to take, but not to give back. gains have been greatest among the Inequality and poverty among chil- global elite — financial and corporate dren are a special moral disgrace. They executives in rich countries — and the flout right-wing suggestions that great ‘‘emerging middle classes’’ of poverty is a result of laziness and poor China, India, Indonesia and Brazil. Who choices; children can’t choose their lost out? Africans, some Latin Ameri- parents. In America, nearly one in four cans, and people in post-Communist children lives in poverty; in Spain and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Greece, about one in six; in Australia, Union, Mr. Milanovic found. Britain and Canada, more than one in The United States provides a particu- 10. None of this is inevitable. Some larly grim example for the world. And countries have made the choice to cre- because, in so many ways, America of- ate more equitable economies: South ten ‘‘leads the world,’’ if others follow Korea, where a half-century ago just America’s example, it does not portend one in 10 people attained a college de- well for the future. gree, today has one of the world’s On the one hand, widening income highest university completion rates. and wealth inequality in America is For these reasons, I see us entering a part of a trend seen across the Western world divided not just between the world. A 2011 study by the Organization haves and have-nots, but also between for Economic Cooperation and Devel- those countries that do nothing about it, opment found that income inequality and those that do. Some countries will be first started to rise in the late ’70s and successful in creating shared prosperity early ’80s in America and Britain (and — the only kind of prosperity that I be- also in Israel). The trend became more lieve is truly sustainable. Others will let widespread starting in the late ’80s. inequality run amok. In these divided so- Within the last decade, income inequal- cieties, the rich will hunker in gated ity grew even in traditionally egalitari- communities, almost completely sepa- an countries like Germany, Sweden rated from the poor, whose lives will be and Denmark. With a few exceptions almost unfathomable to them, and vice — France, Japan, Spain — the top 10 versa. I’ve visited societies that seem to percent of earners in most advanced have chosen this path. They are not economies raced ahead, while the bot- places in which most of us would want to tom 10 percent fell further behind. live, whether in their cloistered enclaves But the trend was not universal, or in- or their desperate shantytowns. evitable. Over these same years, coun- tries like Chile, Mexico, Greece, Turkey JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ, a Nobel laureate in and Hungary managed to reduce (in economics and a Columbia University some cases very high) income inequality professor, is a former chairman of the significantly, suggesting that inequality White House Council of Economic Ad- is a product of political and not merely visers and a former chief economist macroeconomic forces. It is not true that JAVIER JAÉN for the World Bank. . S18 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES turning the page opinion

How to feed the world seeing peasant farming as ‘‘ineffi- It’s a para- Mark Bittman cient.’’) dox: as in- The result is forced flight to cities, creasing where peasants become poorly paid laborers, enter the cash market for (in- numbers of NEW YORK It’s been 50 years since creasingly mass produced) food, and people can President John F. Kennedy spoke of eat worse. (They’re no longer ‘‘peas- afford to ending world hunger, yet on the eve of ants,’’ at this point, but more akin to World Food Day, Oct. 16, the situation the working poor of the United States, eat well, remains dire. The question ‘‘How will who also often cannot afford to eat food for the we feed the world?’’ implies that we well, though not to the point of starva- poor may have no choice but to intensify industri- tion.) It’s a formula for making not only al agriculture, with more high-tech hunger but obesity: remove the ability become seeds, chemicals and collateral dam- to produce food, then remove the abili- scarcer. age. Yet there are other, better options. ty to pay for food, or replace it with Something approaching a billion only one choice: bad food. people are hungry, a number that’s It’s not news that the poor need been fairly stable for more than 50 money and justice. If there’s a bright years, although it has declined as a per- side here, it’s that the changes required centage of the total population. to ‘‘fix’’ the problems created by ‘‘in- ‘‘Feeding the world’’ might as well be dustrial agriculture’’ are perhaps more a marketing slogan for Big Ag, a eu- tractable than those created by inequal- phemism for ‘‘Let’s ramp up sales,’’ as ity. if producing more cars would guaran- We might begin by ditching the nar- tee that everyone had one. But if it row focus on yields (as Jonathan Foley, worked that way, surely the rate of hun- director of the Institute on the Envir- ger in the United States would not be onment at the University of Min- the highest percentage of any de- nesota, says, ‘‘It’s not ‘grow baby veloped nation, a rate closer to that of grow’ ’’), which seem to be ebbing nat- Indonesia than of Britain. The world has long produced enough ‘‘The playing field has been tilted against calories, around 2,700 per day per hu- peasants for centuries, and they’ve still managed man, more than enough to meet the United Nations projection of a popula- to feed more people than industrial agriculture.’’ tion of nine billion in 2050, up from the current seven billion. There are hungry people not because food is lack- urally as land quality deteriorates and ing, but because not all of those calor- chemicals become less effective (de- ies go to feed humans (a third go to spite high-tech ‘‘advances’’ like genet- feed animals, nearly 5 percent are used ically engineered crops). Better, it to produce biofuels, and as much as a would seem, would be to ask not how third is wasted, all along the food much food is produced, but how it’s chain). produced, for whom, at what price, The current system is neither envir- cost and benefit. onmentally nor economically sustain- GOLDEN COSMOS We also need to see more investment able, dependent as it is on fossil fuels in researching the benefits of tradition- and routinely resulting in environmen- al farming. Even though simple tech- tal damage. It’s geared to letting the numbers of people can afford to eat well, If we want to ensure that poor people Let’s at last recognize that there are niques like those mentioned above give half of the planet with money eat well food for the poor will become scarcer, eat and also do a better job than ‘‘mod- two food systems, one industrial and measurably excellent results, because while everyone else scrambles to eat as because demand for animal products ern’’ farming does at preserving the one of small landholders, or peasants if they’re traditional — even ancient — cheaply as possible. will surge, and they require more re- earth’s health and productivity, we you prefer. The peasant system is not ‘‘technologies,’’ and because their ben- While a billion people are hungry, sources like grain to produce. A global must stop assuming that the industrial only here for good, it’s arguably more efits in profiting multinationals or inter- about three billion people are not eating population growth of less than 30 per- model of food production and its accom- efficient than the industrial model. Ac- national trade are limited, they’ve nev- well, according to the United Nations cent is projected to double the demand panying disease-producing diet is both cording to the ETC Group, a research er received investment on the same Food and Agriculture Organization, if for animal products. But there is not the inevitable and desirable. I have dozens and advocacy organization based in Ot- scale as corporate agriculture. (It’s im- you count obese and overweight people land, water or fertilizer — let alone the of friends and colleagues who say tawa, the industrial food chain uses 70 possible not to point out here that a alongside those with micronutrient defi- health care funding — for the world to things like, ‘‘I hate industrial ag, but percent of agricultural resources to similar situation exists between highly ciencies. Paradoxically, as increasing consume Western levels of meat. how will we feed the poor?’’ provide 30 percent of the world’s food, subsidized and damaging fossil fuels whereas what ETC calls ‘‘the peasant and oft-ignored yet environmentally food web’’ produces the remaining 70 friendly renewables.) percent using only 30 percent of the re- Instead, the money and energy (of all sources. kinds) focused on boosting supply can- Yes, it is true that high-yielding vari- not be overstated. If equal resources eties of any major commercial mono- were put into reducing waste — which culture crop will produce more per acre aside from its obvious merits would than peasant-bred varieties of the same vastly prevent the corresponding crop. But by diversifying crops, mixing greenhouse gas emissions — question- plants and animals, planting trees — ing the value of animal products, re- which provide not only fruit but shelter ducing overconsumption (where for birds, shade, fertility through nutri- ‘‘waste’’ becomes ‘‘waist’’), actively ent recycling, and more — small land- promoting saner, less energy-consum- holders can produce more food (and ing alternatives, and granting that more kinds of food) with fewer re- peasants have the right to farm their sources and lower transportation costs traditional landholdings, we could not (which means a lower carbon foot- only ensure that people could feed print), while providing greater food se- themselves but also reduce agricul- curity, maintaining greater biodiversi- ture’s contribution to greenhouse ty, and even better withstanding the gases, chronic disease and energy de- effects of climate change. (Not only pletion. that: their techniques have been This isn’t about ‘‘organic’’ versus demonstrated to be effective on larger- ‘‘modern.’’ It’s about supporting the scale farms, even in the Corn Belt of the system in which small producers make decisions based on their knowledge The world has long produced enough calories for and experience of their farms in the landscape, as opposed to buying stand- everyone on the planet — around 2,700 per day ardized technological fixes in a bag. per human. So why do people go hungry? Some people call this knowledge- based rather than energy-based agri- culture, but obviously it takes plenty of United States.) And all of this without energy; as it happens, much of that en- the level of subsidies and other support ergy is human, which can be a good that industrial agriculture has received thing. Frances Moore Lappé, author of in the last half-century, and despite the ‘‘Diet for a Small Planet,’’ calls it ‘‘re- efforts of Big Ag to become even more lational,’’ and says, ‘‘Agroecology is dominant. not just healthy sustainable food pro- In fact if you define ‘‘productivity’’ duction but the seed of a different way not as pounds per acre but as the num- of relating to one another, and to the ber of people fed per that same area, earth.’’ you find that the United States ranks That may sound new age-y, but so be behind both China and India (and in- it; all kinds of questions and all kinds of deed the world average), and roughly theories are needed if we’re going to the same as Bangladesh, because so produce food sustainably. Supporting, much of what we grow goes to animals or at least not obstructing, peasant and biofuels. (Regardless of how food is farming is one key factor, but the other produced, delivered and consumed, is reining in Western-style monoculture waste remains at about one third.) and the standard American diet it cre- Thus, as the ETC’s research director, ates. Kathy Jo Wetter, says, ‘‘It would be lun- Some experts are at least marginally acy to hold that the current production optimistic about the second half of this: paradigm based on multinational ag- ‘‘The trick is to find the sweet spot,’’ ribusiness is the only credible starting says Mr. Foley of the University of Min- point for achieving food security.’’ This nesota, ‘‘between better nutrition and is especially true given all of its down- eating too much meat and junk. The op- sides. timistic view is to hope that the conver- As Raj Patel, a fellow at the Institute sation about what’s wrong with our diet for Food and Development Policy, puts may deflect some of this. Eating more it, ‘‘The playing field has been tilted meat is voluntary, and how the Chinese against peasants for centuries, and middle class winds up eating will deter- they’ve still managed to feed more mine a great deal.’’ Of course, at the people than industrial agriculture. With moment, that middle class shows every the right kinds of agroecological train- indication that it’s moving in the wrong ing and the freedom to shape the food direction; China is the world’s leading system on fair terms, it’s a safe bet that consumer of meat, a trend that isn’t they’ll be able to feed themselves, and slowing. others as well.’’ But if the standard American diet Yet obviously not all poor people feed represents the low point of eating, a themselves well, because they lack the question is whether the developing essentials: land, water, energy and nu- world, as it hurtles toward that nutri- trients. Often that’s a result of cruel tional nadir — the polar opposite of dictatorship (North Korea) or war, dis- hunger, but almost as deadly — can see placement and strife (the Horn of its destructive nature and pull out of Africa, Haiti and many other places), the dive before its diet crashes. Be- or drought or other calamities. But it cause ‘‘solving’’ hunger by driving can also be an intentional and direct re- people into cities to take low-paying sult of land and food speculation and jobs so they can buy burgers and fries land and water grabs, which make it is hardly a desirable outcome. impossible for peasants to remain in their home villages. (Governments of MARK BITTMAN is a food journalist, author many developing countries may also and contributing opinion writer for The act as agents for industrial agriculture, New York Times. . INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | S19 opinion turning the page

After the jobs disappear tion ratio in the United States, 58.6 per- The shar- Juliet B. Schor cent, is at its lowest since 1983. In much ing econo- of Europe, unemployment has soared, my is re- especially for youth, even as aging popu- lations place pressure on pension and fashioning BOSTON In Somerville, Massachu- other social welfare programs. work, offer- setts, just across the line from Cam- As jobs disappear, people have begun ing people bridge, is an institution called Artisan’s to carve out new ways to gain access to Asylum. At 40,000 square feet, it says income, goods and services. This is evi- new oppor- it’s one of the largest ‘‘makerspaces,’’ dent not only in the ‘‘makerspaces,’’ tunities to or community craft studios, on the East but also in what has come to be called earn money Coast of the United States. A nonprofit the ‘‘sharing economy,’’ which encom- group, it hosts craftspeople, artists and passes activities as diverse as car-pool- or to have entrepreneurs, analog and digital alike. ing, ride-sharing, opening one’s home access to In addition to classes in traditional to strangers via Web-based services goods and fields like woodworking, fiber arts and like Couchsurfing or Airbnb, sharing of- metalworking, it offers coveted rental fice space and working in community services. space for creative types. gardens and food co-ops. At one end of the space, tech whizzes Like ‘‘makerspaces,’’ the sharing are building Stompy, a 4,000-pound economy is refashioning work, giving hexapod — a six-legged robot. At the people new opportunities to earn other is a ‘‘bike hacking’’ collective that money or to have access to goods and repurposes old bicycle frames. In be- services. People are joining ‘‘time tween are the folks who invented a banks,’’ through which members trade 3Doodler, the three-dimensional pen — services like baby-sitting, carpentry or it extrudes heated plastic that can be tutoring. They are selling their labor for formed into just about any shape. The cash on platforms like Task Rabbit and JAVIER JAÉN 3Doodler raised $2.3 million on Kick- Zaarly. They are renting out their cars, starter (far outpacing its $30,000 goal) homes and durable goods, from appli- and is on track to be the next must-have ances to lawn mowers. They are also ain and parts of Western Europe, that gift item. giving away their stuff, via Web sites The new economy promises its share of pain. continues to favor deregulation — even Community fabrication spaces like like Yerdle and Freecycle, rather than But the potential for it to give work more though it was deregulation that brought Artisan’s Asylum are becoming popu- throwing it away. meaning and social impact is considerable. about the financial crisis. lar across the United States and The potential for the sharing economy So while they are no panacea, the Europe. For many, they represent an to give work more meaning, autonomy emergent trends of community fabrica- appealing vision of the future of work. and social impact is considerable. It has atively cheap, small-scale 3-D printers, gent economic afflictions facing the tion, self-provisioning and the sharing Unlike in the classic industrial set- begun to reallocate value along the pro- laser cutters and other fabrication tools West — a shortage of jobs, soaring in- economy collectively suggest a future ting, where the manual and mental as- duction chain, by cutting out middle- — has made the sharing of equipment equality and a fraying of the welfare for work in wealthy countries that in- pects of work are separated between men, like hoteliers and landlords. more affordable. Internet tools have sig- state — but they represent one signifi- volves more making, sharing and self- blue- and white-collar employees, those What’s revolutionary is not the sharing nificantly reduced the transaction costs cant response to it. Low-income people organizing. There may be fewer formal tasks are integrated in these ‘‘maker- — people have engaged in nonmonetary associated with peer-to-peer sharing. don’t typically have the kinds of homes jobs — but a more entrepreneurial ap- spaces.’’ There’s a commitment to eco- transactions for millenniums — but that More generally, digital technologies are one can rent out on Airbnb. But they can proach to making money, one that em- logical sustainability. There are no the transactions are occurring among likely to be one reason small and medi- participate in urban food growing, an in- phasizes smaller-scale companies and bosses or even ‘‘jobs,’’ in the traditional strangers. Digital reputations, including um-size enterprises have become key creasingly popular phenomenon, and in collectively owned enterprises, more sense. Value is generated, for sure, but ratings systems on sites like TripAd- sources of employment job creation. collective initiatives like Growing sharing, and less spending. As painful as ‘‘livelihood’’ or, in the case of the visor and Amazon, make such interac- Like most economic innovations, Power, in the Midwest, and Co-op Power, as the years since the crash have been, start-ups, worker/creator ownership. tions safer than they were in the past. these trends promise their share of pain. in the Northeast, which provide partic- a more resilient, satisfying and sustain- This shift from employment to liveli- Many sharers also aim to reduce the New products like the 3Doodler take ipants with income, food and energy. As able way to work and live could be one hood, while far from prevalent, has be- carbon footprints of production and con- away market share from established in the maker movement, the work in beneficial consequence. come a necessity for many in the wake of sumption, and stimulate local econo- sellers. Traditional service jobs in hospit- such projects is tactile, connecting cre- the 2008 global financial collapse, which mies, though these effects are, so far, ality and transportation are threatened ativity with the handling of materials. JULIET B. SCHOR, professor of sociology at led to the loss of more than 8 million jobs more hypothetical than proved. by services like Airbnb and Uber. Sites If some of this seems fanciful, even Boston College, is the author of ‘‘True in the United States. At the time, I and In the sharing economy, people are re- where people bid to perform tasks have naïve, consider the alternatives. Large Wealth: How and Why Millions of Ameri- other observers predicted that these turning, in a sense, to modes of inde- the potential to create a race to the bot- corporations are more profitable than cans Are Creating a Time-Rich, Ecologic- jobs — a victim of labor-saving technical pendent production and self-provision- tom, particularly in times like now, when ever, partly because of the consolidation ally Light, Small-Scale, High-Satisfaction change, globalization and financializa- ing that preceded (and persevered the supply of labor in wealthy countries in industries from banking to aviation to Economy’’ and a member of the Mac- tion — were unlikely to return. Five through) the industrial revolution. Tech- is abundant, and the demand is limited. book publishing, and a neoliberal polit- Arthur Foundation Research Network years later, the employment-to-popula- nology — the growing availability of rel- These trends won’t solve the most ur- ical ideology, in the United States, Brit- on Connected Learning.

WORLD CLASS DEGREE FOR EXECUTIVES The Middle East pendulum arrival in power of Recep Tayyip Er- A scenario Roger Cohen dogan, has the idea taken hold that Is- of endless lam is compatible with a liberal order. conflict in For many secular Turks the swing of the pendulum has been excessive. The the region ISTANBUL The Middle Eastern strong- protests at Gezi Park this summer were is plausible. men are back. The counterrevolution is about Erdogan’s invasion in the name Yet there in full swing. Islamists and secular lib- of Islam of Turks’ personal lives. This erals do battle. The Shiite and Sunni was democratic pushback from Tur- are glim- worlds confront each other. A two-state key’s secular coast against the conser- mers of Israeli-Palestinian peace looks im- vative Anatolian heartland. hope. possible. Freedom is equated with If in Turkey it has taken 90 years for a chaos. For this region there is no future, democracy to evolve that is not anti-Is- only endless rehearsals of the past. lamic, then the 30 months since the Arab Poisoned by colonialism, stymied by Spring are a mere speck in time. Islam’s battle with modernity, inebri- Moreover, as Mustafa Akyol points out ated by oil, blocked by the absence of in- in his book ‘‘Islam Without Extremes,’’ stitutions that can mediate the fury of Turkey, unlike most other Muslim coun- tribe and ethnicity, Middle Eastern tries, was never colonized, with the re- states turn in circles. Syria is now the re- sult that political Islam did not take on a gional emblem, a vacuum in which only virulent anti-Western character. It was the violent nihilism of the jihadi thrives. not a violent reaction against being the Just two and a half years after the West’s lackey, as in Iran. Arab Spring, talk of the future — any fu- Now Iran, under its new president, ture — seems preposterous. Countries Hassan Rouhani, is trying again to build futures on the basis of things that build moderation into its theocracy and do not exist here: consensus as to the repair relations with the West. Such at- nature of the state, the rule of law, a tempts have failed in the past. But the concept of citizenship that overrides Middle Eastern future will look very sectarian allegiance, and the ability to different if the U.S. Embassy in Tehran place the next generation’s prosperity — symbol of the violent entry into the above the settling of past scores. American consciousness of the Islamic Syria’s Bashar al-Assad has gassed radical — reopens and the Islamic Re- his own people. Iraq is again engulfed in public becomes a freer polity. Sunni-Shiite violence. The U.S.-trained Nothing inherent to Islam makes it Egyptian Army has slaughtered mem- anti-Western. History has. The Islamic bers of the Muslim Brotherhood. It is revolution was an assertion of ideologi- hard to recall the heady season of 2011 cal independence from the West. As when despots fell and Arabs spoke with power in the world shifts away from the passion of freedom and personal em- West, this idea has run its course. Irani- powerment. The Arab security state ans are drawn to America. has shown its resilience; it breeds ex- The United States can have cordial tremism. As the political theorist Ben- relations with Iran just as it does with jamin Barber has noted, ‘‘Fundament- China, while disagreeing with it on alism is religion under siege.’’ most things. A breakthrough would A scenario of endless conflict is plau- demonstrate that the vicious circles of sible. Yet there are glimmerings. Re- the Middle East can be broken. pressive systems have survived but I believe the U.S. Embassy in Tehran mind-sets have changed. The young will reopen within five years because people of the region (the median age in the current impasse has become sense- Egypt, where nearly one quarter of all less. With Iran inside the tent rather Arabs live, is 25) will not return to a than outside, anything would be possi- state of submission. They have tasted ble, even an Israeli-Palestinian peace. what it is to bring change through If Arabs could see in Israel not a Zion- protest. As in Iran, where the deep re- ist oppressor but the region’s most suc- formist current was crushed in 2009 cessful economy, a modern state built in only to resurface in 2013, these currents 65 years, they would pose themselves run deep and will reemerge. the right questions about openness, in- Here in Turkey, the closest approxi- novation and progress. Israel, in turn, HEC EXECUTIVE MBA mation to a liberal order in a Middle by getting out of the business of occupa- Eastern Muslim state exists. That is the tion and oppression, could ensure its fu- 1 DEGREE, 8 MAJORS, 14 LOCATIONS region’s core challenge: finding a model ture as a Jewish and democratic state. that reconciles Islam and modernity, re- There is another future for the Contact: ligion with nonsectarian statehood. So it Middle East, one glimpsed during the [email protected] is worth recalling that Turkey’s democ- Arab Spring, but first it must be +33 (0)1 55 65 59 77 www.emba.hec.edu racy is the fruit of 90 years of violent dragged from the insistent clutches of back-and-forth since Mustafa Kemal the past. Ataturk founded the Republic in 1923, and imposed a Western culture. ROGER COHEN is a columnist for The Inter- Only over the past decade, with the national New York Times. . S20 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES turning the page opinion

Disease: The next big one

AIDS, David Quammen SARS, Ebola and many new BOZEMAN, MONTANA Grim prognost- afflictions ications of pestilence are as old as the all came Book of Revelation, but they have not gone out of style or been rendered from anim- moot. Plague is a tribulation that sci- als and ence, technology and social engineer- made the ing haven’t fixed. In the mid-1960s, some public health officials imagined leap to that antibiotics and other modern ther- humans. apies would enable us to ‘‘close the book’’ on infectious diseases and so make it possible to focus on noncommu- nicable afflictions, like heart attack, dia- betes and stroke. But that optimism was mistaken. By one account, published in Nature in 2008, more than 300 instances of emerging infectious diseases occurred between 1940 and 2004. These included both the first appearance of scary new viral diseases (like SARS), with the po- tential to cause global pandemics, and the re-emergence of older bacterial in- fections in new forms (like antibiotic- resistant tuberculosis and Staphylococ- cus aureus), which are less dramatic but also capable of causing illness and death on a large scale. The authors of that study warned that global re- sources to counter disease emergence were poorly allocated, with most new outbreaks occurring in tropical coun- tries, and most scientific and surveil- lance efforts concentrated elsewhere. The most gruesome emergent dis- eases — like those caused by Ebola virus in Africa or Nipah virus in Asia — affect relatively few. The most devastating, AIDS, is caused by a devious, patient vi- rus that wages slow-motion war against the human body, with mortal con- sequences for millions. The most explo- sive — SARS in 2002, or some recent strains of influenza — had the potential, but for prompt action and good luck, to claim many more victims than they did. GOLDEN COSMOS AIDS, SARS, Ebola virus and many other new diseases have one thing in common: they are zoonotic. This means large population centers of the Congo lication. It crackles and snaps with acci- entific efforts and public-health planning vidual liberties and the health of the hu- they came from nonhuman animals and basin before spreading worldwide. dental variation. Darwin told us that to limit the scope of coming pandemics. man herd. Field research in areas of made the leap to humans. The infec- Sixty percent of human infectious variation is the raw material of adaptive There are issues of civil liberties and high biological diversity, careful scrutiny tious agent might be a virus, or a bac- diseases, including the worst of the old change; and adaptive change is what en- privacy, as well as issues of public of the interactions of humans and wild- terium, or another sort of parasitic mi- ones and the scariest of the new, are zo- ables an organism to thrive in unfamiliar health, to be faced as we prepare for the life, control of the killing and transport of crobe, or a worm; the animal in which it onotic. Now disease experts wonder conditions — including human hosts. ‘‘next big one.’’ Consider the matter of wild animals for food, attention to the resides inconspicuously, before spilling about the ‘‘next big one:’’ when will it In 1997, Dr. Donald S. Burke cau- travel. When Dr. Burke issued his disease threats inherent in factory-scale over into humans, is known as its reser- come, what will it look like, from which tioned that the watch list of candidate warning, you could get on an airplane livestock husbandry, efficient sampling voir host. The reservoir host might be a reservoir host will it spill over, and how viruses for the next global pandemic — just about anywhere carrying a pock- and diagnostic tools, global monitoring bat (as with the SARS virus), or a ro- many people will it kill? the ones with high intrinsic evolvability etknife. You can’t do that anymore. But networks, better vaccines, better anti- dent (the various hantaviruses), or a Prediction is difficult. But we can be — should include the influenzas, the you can still board a plane carrying a viral drugs, and contingency plans for chimpanzee (H.I.V.-1). The reservoir reasonably confident on a few points. retroviruses (like H.I.V.-1 and H.I.V.-2), virus. This may change. Soon, it will be confining and controlling outbreaks — host of Ebola virus is still unidentified The worst new diseases of the future, and the coronavirus family (including possible to identify quickly who is or is these represent our best defenses — a lingering mystery — though bats like those of the recent past, will be zo- SARS). His warning was validated not infected with a dangerous new vi- against the ‘‘next big one.’’ We can’t pre- again are suspected. And all of our in- onotic. Unfamiliar pathogens come to when SARS emerged. rus, and the carriers may be excluded vent another malign bug from entering fluenzas (even the so-called swine flus) people from wildlife or livestock. The Precise prediction may not be possi- from certain activities — or worse. Dur- the human population. But will it kill a originate in wild aquatic birds. scariest of the new bugs will probably be ble, but informed vigilance is. Intrepid ing smallpox outbreaks of the late 19th few thousand people, or tens of millions? We now know from molecular evi- viruses. Formidable, hardy, opportunist- disease ecologists are hiking into forests, and early 20th centuries, some Ameri- The answer may depend not just on dence (published by Beatrice H. Hahn, ic and impervious to antibiotics, viruses climbing through caves, visiting remote can communities instituted compulsory the nature of the virus, and on the dens- Michael Worobey and their collaborat- replicate and evolve quickly. They exist communities to investigate small out- vaccination and forcible confinement in ity and abundance of Homo sapiens on ors) that the pandemic strain of H.I.V. in extraordinary diversity and seem breaks, gathering evidence of novel in- pesthouses. A 21st-century version, this planet, but also on the particulars went from a single chimpanzee into a ever ready to colonize new hosts. fections, and sleuthing the mysteries of based on similar fears about a new zo- of how we respond. Viruses are adapt- single person (presumably by blood-to- Experts believe that the next global reservoir host and spillover. In labs, oth- onotic virus, might involve cheek-swab- able and heedless. Humans are adapt- blood contact when the chimp was pandemic is likely to be caused by a vi- er scientists are developing sophisticat- bing and speedy molecular diagnostics able and smart. slaughtered for food) around 1908 or rus with high ‘‘intrinsic evolvability,’’ ed new molecular tools for quickly at airport security checkpoints, fol- earlier, in southeastern Cameroon. The meaning that it mutates especially identifying and characterizing new vir- lowed by ... who knows what sort of DAVID QUAMMEN is the author of virus then must have passed slowly quickly or recombines elements of its ge- uses. Private, governmental and inter- quarantine for those carrying the bug. ‘‘Spillover: Animal Infections and the downriver, human to human, into the netic material during the process of rep- national health institutions support sci- We’ll need to balance between indi- Next Human Pandemic.’’

The end of the nation-state?

with Jebel Ali Free Zone, which is today new sovereign states, are a crucial step Mayors, Parag Khanna one of the world’s largest and most effi- in a longer process toward building not presi- cient ports, and now encompasses fi- transnational stability among neighbors. dents or nance, media, education, health care Even as there is a growing number of and logistics, Dubai is as much a dense micro-states and para-states, one an- kings, will SINGAPORE Every five years, the set of internationally regulated com- cient state form remains with us more be the new United States National Intelligence mercial hubs as it is the most populous prominently than ever: empire. Twenty global Council, which advises the director of emirate of a sovereign Arab federation. years ago the political scientist Samuel the Central Intelligence Agency, pub- This complex layering of territorial, P. Huntington published his landmark leaders. lishes a report forecasting the long- legal and commercial authority goes essay ‘‘The Clash of Civilizations.’’ The term implications of global trends. hand in hand with the second great word ‘‘empire’’ appeared just twice — Earlier this year it released its latest re- political trend of the age: devolution. only as a modifier, never a noun. Yet port, ‘‘Alternative Worlds,’’ which in- In the face of rapid urbanization, deeply diverse empires, not culturally cluded scenarios for how the world every city, state or province wants to defined civilizations, have always been would look a generation from now. call its own shots. And they can, as na- the driving force of geopolitics. One scenario, ‘‘Nonstate World,’’ tions depend on their largest cities Today continental-scale empires like imagined a planet in which urbanization, more than the reverse. Mayor Michael the United States, China and Brazil com- technology and capital accumulation R. Bloomberg of New York City is fond bine large populations with the financial have brought about a landscape where of saying, ‘‘I don’t listen to Washington resources and ambition to reshape for- governments give up on real reforms much.’’ But it’s clear that Washington eign structures to suit their economic and subcontract many responsibilities listens to him. The same is true for and strategic goals. They are them-

to outside parties, which then set up en- mayors elsewhere in the world, which JAVIER JAÉN selves public-private para-states, whose claves operating under their own laws. is why at least eight former mayors are grand strategies are more about con- The imagined date for the report’s sce- now heads of state. trolling supply chains in energy and narios is 2030, but at least for ‘‘Nonstate Scotland and Wales in the United technology than conquering new terri- World,’’ it might as well be 2010: though Kingdom, the Basque Country and Cata- With rapid urbanization under way, cities want to tories, which are just potential liabilities. most of us might not realize it, ‘‘nonstate lonia in Spain, British Columbia in call their own shots. Increasingly, they can. They think in terms of flow, friction world’’ describes much of how global so- Canada, Western Australia and just and leverage. This is why weaker states ciety already operates. This isn’t to say about every Indian state — all are places the surest path to improving access to nascent European Union for Africa. must band together into regional group- that states have disappeared, or will. But seeking maximum fiscal and policy au- basic goods and services, reducing Nowhere is a rethinking of ‘‘the ings, or risk succumbing to the equally they are becoming just one form of gov- tonomy from their national capitals. poverty, stimulating growth and raising state’’ more necessary than in the ancient principle of divide-and-conquer. ernance among many. Devolution is even happening in the overall quality of life. Middle East. There is a sad futility to We cannot understand any state out- A quick scan across the world reveals China. Cities have been given a long Connected societies are better off than the reams of daily analysis on Syria and side of the complex system in which it that where growth and innovation have leash to develop innovative economic isolated ones. As the incidence of inter- Iraq that fail to grasp that no state has a interacts with others in constant feed- been most successful, a hybrid public- models, and Beijing depends on their national conflict diminishes, ever more divine right to exist. A century after back loops. Hegel claimed two centuries private, domestic-foreign nexus lies be- growth. One of the most popular adages countries are building roads, railways, British and French diplomats divided ago that the state was a work of art; no neath the miracle. These aren’t states; among China watchers today is: ‘‘The pipelines, bridges and Internet cables the Ottoman Empire’s eastern territo- two were alike. His observation is truer they’re ‘‘para-states’’ — or, in one com- hills are high, and the emperor is far across borders, forging networks of ur- ries into feeble (and ultimately short- than ever. Yet no matter what their mon parlance, ‘‘special economic away.’’ Our maps show a world of about ban centers that depend on one another lived) mandates, the resulting states shape, geography or regime, states are zones.’’ 200 countries, but the number of effec- for trade, investment and job creation. are crumbling beyond repair. also more connected than ever — and Across Africa, the Middle East and tive authorities is hundreds more. Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania The Arab world will not be resurrected are likely to remain that way. Asia, hundreds of such zones have The broader consequence of these and Uganda have formed the East Afri- to its old glory until its map is redrawn to sprung up in recent decades. In 1980, phenomena is that we should think be- can Community to coordinate every- resemble a collection of autonomous na- PARAG KHANNA is a senior research fellow Shenzhen became China’s first; now yond clearly defined nations and ‘‘nation thing from customs to investment pro- tional oases linked by Silk Roads of com- at the New America Foundation and the they blanket China, which has become building’’ toward integrating a rapidly motion to peacekeeping. If they can merce. Ethnic, linguistic and sectarian author of ‘‘The Second World: How the world’s second largest economy. urbanizing world population directly in- leverage Chinese-built infrastructure to communities may continue to press for Emerging Powers Are Redefining Global The Arab world has more than 300 of to regional and international markets. overcome arbitrary political borders, independence, and no doubt the Pales- Competition in the 21st Century’’ and them, though more than half are con- That, rather than going through the me- (the ubiquitous and suspicious straight tinians and Kurds deserve it. And yet ‘‘How to Run the World: Charting a centrated in one city: Dubai. Beginning diating level of central governments, is lines on the map), they could become a more fragmentation and division, even Course to the Next Renaissance.’’ . INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | S21 . S22 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES turning the page opinion

Where science is going can at times seem like a vast, mysteri- For example, while in the United We are Jim Al-Khalili ous, unaccountable operation, you can- States laws and regulations concerning very far not be too surprised that those who feel human embryonic stem-cell research from hav- disengaged or threatened by science differ from state to state, often amid are drawn to conspiracy theories, be- strong opposition from the religious ing all the PORTSMOUTH, ENGLAND By the final coming skeptical of the increasingly right, there are no such misgivings in answers decade of the 19th century, many of the dire warnings of climatologists, suspi- Iran, where the prevailing belief is that to all the world’s leading physicists were brim- cious of the motives of multinational ‘‘ensoulment’’ of the fetus does not oc- ming with self-congratulatory confi- pharmaceuticals (O.K., that one I sym- cur until the end of the fourth month of questions. dence, convinced that scientific knowl- pathize with) or attracted to alterna- pregnancy. Another example is the con- Cosmic edge was truly nearing completion, tive, pseudoscientific health remedies. trasting public opinion on nuclear mysteries that the workings of nature had been This is why it is vital that the scientific power between France (pro) and Ger- revealed in all their glory. The laws of community work more closely with the many (against). still mechanics, thermodynamics and elec- politicians and policy makers who can Many challenges lie ahead. While abound. tromagnetism could explain all phe- provide oversight and publicly clarify popularizers and communicators of sci- nomena in the physical world, and it and promote the rationale behind each ence like myself seek to capture the was just a matter of dotting the i’s and endeavor. imagination of the public with exciting crossing the t’s. But within the space of It is unlikely that large pharmaceut- a decade, between 1895 and 1905, along icals, biotech companies, energy pro- What does 21st-century science have in store for came the discovery of X-rays, radio- viders and defense contractors are go- us? And more important, are we seven billion activity, quantum theory and Einsteini- ing to feel a moral obligation to ‘‘come an relativity, and physics was turned on clean’’ and become open about the re- (and rising) humans jostling for position on the its head. search they conduct. But I am a ‘‘glass surface of this planet prepared for the future? A century later we are at it again. half full’’ kind of person, and I would Stephen Hawking has gone on record argue that the vision of science as a saying that we are approaching a ‘‘the- conspiratorial or self-interested enter- discoveries of new subatomic particles ory of everything’’ — a set of math- prise is not only unnecessarily gloomy, or distant planets, we must not lose ematical equations that explain the un- but also not representative of the views sight of the real problems facing the derlying structure of the entire of most people in the world. As a hu- world today that science can help ad- universe. How bleakly depressing. manist, I tend to have faith in human- dress — from religious extremism and Thankfully — because I would be out kind’s capacity to make the right population growth to the security nex- of a job if it were true, but also because choices, and in my fellow scientists’ us of energy, food and water supplies. it would be profoundly uninteresting — ability to eventually solve the world’s And despite the misgivings of the skep- we are very far from having all the an- problems with a deeper understanding tics who remain unconvinced of the fact swers to all the questions. of the universe and our place in it and of anthropogenic climate change, there Cosmic mysteries still abound, global with the technological applications of is no longer any denying the worrying problems like climate change still this knowledge. transformation of our planet that is tak- elude solution and technology contin- Of course, my optimism and confi- ing place, for which ambitious global ues its inexorable advance, resolving dence may have much to do with being geo-engineering solutions may need to old problems but often creating new based in Britain, where science is rid- be found. ones. ing high on a wave of popularity at the Whatever lies in store, we can be So what does 21st-century science moment, including in undergraduate sure that the future will look very dif- have in store for us? And more impor- science programs. Britain is now a ferent from anything we can imagine tant, are we seven billion (and rising) world leader in science communication today. humans jostling for position on the sur- — thanks, in part, even to imports like The Internet will continue to evolve, face of this planet prepared for what’s the American sitcom ‘‘The Big Bang and new ‘‘smart’’ materials based on to come? Theory.’’ Science documentaries regu- graphene or nanotechnology or syn- A major development is likely to be larly draw millions of viewers, popular thetic biology will transform our daily the continuing rise of international sci- science writing in print and online is lives. Whether or not we will have erad- entific collaborations. They are already GOLDEN COSMOS thriving, and science festivals are pop- icated diseases like cancer within my bigger and more international than ping up in seemingly every city and lifetime I cannot say. For all its success, ever. From the work of the Intergovern- town, attracting tens of thousands of one thing science cannot do is allow us mental Panel on Climate Change to the ing scientific juggernauts. Indeed, destined to get ever bigger and more visitors. to see the future. mapping of the human genome, from many of these projects have become so costly? And are they likely to become But this is not true everywhere. Atti- the International Space Station to the grand and costly that no one nation can ever more remote and beyond the con- tudes toward science and scientific re- JIM AL-KHALILI, a professor of theoretical discovery of the Higgs boson at the shoulder the entire burden of running trol of the average taxpayer and search vary widely around the world, physics at the University of Surrey, is a Large Hadron Collider, it seems noth- them. voter? often depending on the specific issue in frequent host of science programs on ing can stand in the way of such glitter- Are such scientific research projects In a sense, given that such science question. BBC television and radio.

What do we owe the future? er space. In claiming to speak for the fu- Contem- Patricia I. Vieira ture, we represent it in a double sense: porary life Michael Marder by electing ourselves as its delegates is over- and at the same time turning it into an extension of the present. loaded with The opposite of the colonization of visions of SAN SEBASTIÁN, SPAIN Contemporary the future is its idealization as the be-all life is overloaded with visions of the fu- and end-all of our actions. The future is www.teda.gov.cn the world ture. Whereas Friedrich Nietzsche be- converted into a fetish that supple- to come. moaned the surplus of historical sense, ments the deficiencies and redeems the crushing old Europe under the weight flaws inherent in the present. Since the of its past, we are now suffering from coming generations have not yet at- an obsession with what lies ahead. Per- tained empirical existence, the ones sonal and national debts are accruing now living will never be able to mea- as rapidly as our obligations to sub- sure up to their purported perfection. sequent generations. We are awash in This seemingly new phenomenon is reports that the global environmental actually a mutation of the old metaphys- crisis may soon reach a tragic turning ical tendency to debase the world here point. With the possibility of apocalypse below at the expense of an otherworldly peering at us from every corner, how ideal: Plato’s Ideas, Aristotle’s unmoved are we to face the time to come? mover, medieval philosophy’s God, In the midst of this turmoil, a new fu- Hegel’s Spirit and the rest. But the turology is afoot, arising out of a growing emerging metaphysical paradigm dif- confidence in our ability to divine what fers from its predecessors in that its fate the future wants and needs. Decisions on is tied to historical becoming, rather issues like environmental protection or than to the eternal principles of being. the control of human reproduction are This temporal characteristic is illusory, made in the name of future generations. since the future is postponed indefin- As the Nietzschean latecomers on the itely. It always remains beyond the scene of history, whose pinnacle we present, immune to contestation, much deem ourselves to be, we are confident like the chimeras of old metaphysics. that our absolute knowledge extends Nothing is easier than appropriating well beyond the temporal horizon of the the voices of those who cannot speak for present. But how do we determine the themselves in the polemical struggle to interests of, and our obligations to, those define the present. Colonized people, for not yet born? Are we really able to listen example, deprived of the means for to what the future tells or, more often, political expression, risked being mis- faintly whispers to us? And, more cru- represented by well-intentioned author- cial still, why are the demands of the ity figures. Advocacy for the environ- present neither pressing nor absorbing ment replays this pattern by ascribing enough in their own right? particular interests to ‘‘voiceless’’ eco- It’s true that the consequences of systems and even individual species. today’s actions are going to have a long- Truly, the road to the future is paved term impact. The effects of a disaster, with good intentions. like Fukushima, will certainly outlast A healthy dose of Epicureanism will those responsible for the catastrophe. go a long way toward curing the discurs- But does the enormous size of our tem- ive inflation of the future. This is not to poral footprint mean that we can speak endorse a carefree attitude in public life, for human beings who are not yet oblivious to ethical concerns. We sug- alive? In other words, what are the epi- gest refocusing attention to the living be- stemic and ethical grounds upon which ings, human and nonhuman, already in our relation to the future can unfold? existence. At the least, the future should To insist on any one notion of the fu- not be used as a diversion from what is. ture in political and philosophical de- The one defensible relation to this bates risks turning it into an ideological temporal modality would be to leave the instrument used to justify present greatest number of options available for policies. The discourse of anti-abortion generations to come, as Daniel Innerar- advocates, for instance, emphasizes the ity argues in ‘‘The Future and Its En- rights of the unborn in order to regulate emies.’’ This minimalist approach would female sexuality. The reductio ad ab- be sensitive to the future’s open-ended- surdum of this argument is the prohibi- ness and acknowledge our inability to tion of any form of contraception by cer- do justice to its sheer otherness. Only tain religious conservatives, who place then will the future truly have a future. abstract reproductive possibilities above existing persons. Arguments like this PATRICIA I. VIEIRA is an associate professor turn future generations into mere pawns of Spanish and Portuguese, comparative in the power games of the present. literature and film and media studies at And so, suffocating under the exces- Georgetown. MICHAEL MARDER is a profes- sive burden of the future, we project sor of philosophy at the University of the our worries onto it, and usurp its prop- Basque Country in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain. . INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 | S23 opinion turning the page

JAVIER JAÉN One Europe, many Europes ters. The only European Union countries angle of corruption that links politics, big Only when European countries start responsive to the challenges of global- The Conti- Clemens Wergin that in past decades retained an ambi- construction firms and regional banks. taking a hard look at themselves, when ization. nent must tious foreign and security policy and the The Italians have to stop voting for public debate gets serious about the The era of Italian city-states, the accept that will to shape world affairs have been populist politicians like Silvio Ber- consequences of aging societies, and world of Lorenzetti’s famous fresco, France and Britain. lusconi and a political class that is con- when courageous politicians start mak- was the breeding ground of the Italian there is a BERLIN At the center of the Italian But with drastic British defense cuts stantly spinning around itself instead of ing hard decisions will Europe have a and European Renaissance, which limit to uni- town of Siena sits the imposing Palazzo and a Parliament that rebuffed Prime solving the problems of the country. chance to remain prosperous, secure spearheaded almost 500 years of West- fication. Pubblico, or city hall. Every year hun- Minister David Cameron’s request for The French have to stop pretending and an important player in world affairs. ern dominance in world affairs. Euro- dreds of thousands of visitors from action in Syria, Britain might become that they can keep retiring at the age of And only if every nation will work on peans will have to regain some of the around the world descend on this 13th- what Germany already is: a country 62 and still maintain bloated public ser- its weaknesses will the European Un- can-do spirit of Lorenzetti’s time, when century building to see one of the most that in matters of global security talks vices. ion be able to pool its members’ Europe was young and full of promise. important nonreligious frescos in the talk without walking the walk. With And the Germans should stop fooling strengths for greater impact on the We will have to reconfirm the will to be Europe: Ambrogio Lorenzetti’s ‘‘The France as last man standing, foreign- themselves that shutting down their global stage. Europe will have to reform active shapers of our own destiny. Oth- Allegory of Good and Bad Govern- policy-wise, it is questionable whether nuclear power plants, and the resulting locally in order to be able to act globally. erwise, we will have to endure a destiny ment.’’ Europe can muster the will and mili- skyrocketing energy prices, are not go- Europe can do it, because it still has chosen for us by others. Lorenzetti painted it in the 14th centu- tary might to take over America’s role ing to hurt industry and the economy. many advantages. It has a stable polit- ry, intending it as a message to the in the Middle East. Germany also has to realize that its al- ical environment and cohesive societ- CLEMENS WERGIN, the foreign editor of the Sienese on the importance to society of a All of this might sound rather gloomy. lies are fed up with its reliance on the ies. Europeans are well educated, and German newspaper group Die Welt and stable and wise government. Some 700 But what is true for the United States is ghosts of the Nazi past as an excuse to in many areas their companies, big and the author of the blog Flatworld, is a con- years later, it still holds a critical lesson: also true for Europe: decline is a stay out of foreign engagements. small, are tremendously inventive and tributing opinion writer. even in our Internet-driven age of plenty, choice; it is not inevitable. bad governance can wreck a country. When Lorenzetti painted his fresco, In fact, globalization acts like a mag- Italy was home to a number of proud nifying glass that exposes the weak and rich city-states that regulated their spots in a society. Economic competi- own affairs, elected their leaders and tion between individuals and nations believed that man was, while occasion- has never been so strong, and in- ally subject to the whims of ‘‘fortuna,’’ vestors’ money has never been as elu- also able to shape his own destiny, and sive. That, in turn, means that a coun- that of his community, by his own will. try that is governed badly will pay a So what does it take to lead Europe higher price, and much faster, for its away from decline? mistakes than in the past. For Lorenzetti, the answer was rather Nowhere is this message more im- simple: the quality and character of the portant than in Europe, which is still rulers people chose and of the institu- reeling from the euro crisis. The Euro- tions they erected. In his allegory of pean economy has been picking up, and good governance, Siena is flanked by many Europeans already believe that the virtues of Peace, Fortitude, the worst is over. Prudence, Magnanimity, Temperance But whoever thinks that this was the and Justice. Bad governance is embod- worst crisis the European project will ied by Cruelty, Deceit, Fraud, Fury, Divi- ever encounter should think again. What Europe has gone through in re- Unless the E.U. fixes its governance problems, cent years could be just the beginning its leaders will do even worse in the face of of a long cycle of crisis. And unless it fixes its governance problems, it will do future crises than they are doing now. even worse in future crises. On the campaign trail, Angela Merkel, the newly re-elected German sion, War, Avarice, Pride and Vainglory. chancellor, liked to sum up Europe’s Put differently, the future of Europe de- competitiveness challenge with a pends on how Europe decides to govern simple calculation: Europe today rep- itself. resents a mere 7 percent of the world’s One option popular with political population, produces 25 percent of the elites is: a more centralized Europe world’s G.D.P. and pays for 50 percent means a better Europe. of its combined social welfare spending. But that is the wrong answer, for two Without drastic political action, that im- reasons. For one thing, it won’t hap- balance is going to get even worse. pen; European citizens don’t want it. The underlying problem is demo- But more important, it won’t work. graphic. By 2015 there will be more Multilateral institutions are a won- people dying in Europe than being born. derful place to discuss problems, pool The median age will rise from 41.2 years knowledge, align positions and keep in today to 47.6 years in 2060. Some coun- constant contact to solve conflicts by tries will age even faster: median age in talking instead of shooting. But they Germany will reach 50 years in 2037. are terrible when it comes to getting Europe will look like an old folks’ things done. home with an ever-decreasing work In fact, they are an invitation to col- force. People at or over the age of 65 — in lective irresponsibility: politicians who other words, old enough to receive a pen- have to respond to their respective con- sion — will account for 30 percent of the stituencies back home always hope that population in 2060. It is estimated that somebody else will do the heavy lifting, the number of working people available foot the bill and make unpleasant de- to finance the social-insurance programs cisions. We have seen this clearly dur- for one retired European will decline ing the euro crisis. Too often ‘‘Europe’’ from four today to two in 2060. Without or ‘‘the Germans’’ have been a handy reform, that means paying more and scapegoat for the elites in the crisis more for social welfare and less and less countries to deflect the anger of their for education and infrastructure, making electorate over corrupt and incompet- Europe increasingly uncompetitive. ent leaders. Europe will also face external chal- The talk of eurobonds, financial instru- lenges. Across the Mediterranean, the ments backed by the entire euro zone, Middle East is in turmoil, and is likely serves a similar objective. It embodies to stay that way for well over a decade. the hope that the bill for bad governance As we’ve seen in Egypt and Syria, an of some countries will be paid by others. increasingly isolationist America is So while the European Union should ever more reluctant to engage with this maintain what it achieved so far, ‘‘more volatile region—atrendthat will grow Europe’’ is not the way to improve the stronger as America becomes more en- Continent’s competitiveness and its for- ergy independent. Without America on eign policy posture. For the foreseeable the scene, Europe may find itself hav- future, the nation-state will remain the ing to step in diplomatically and milit- place of democratic decision making. arily, putting strains on the Continent’s Sadly, there is no silver bullet to fragile political unity. change Europe’s trajectory of decline. Indeed, Europe has been taking a free A few problems are common to most ride on American military spending for Western societies, like aging, but most decades, particularly since the end of the are specific to each nation and necessit- Cold War, when many Western Euro- ate individual national responses. pean countries wanted to reap the Europe as a whole will improve only if ‘‘peace dividend’’ and spend less on the every single European nation improves military and more on a lavish welfare its game in many different areas. system. In 2001 the United States ac- The Greeks have to build a lean and counted for 65 percent of NATO spend- functioning bureaucracy. ing; today it covers almost three-quar- The Spanish have to sort out the tri- . S24 | TUESDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2013 INTERNATIONAL NEW YORK TIMES

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