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[email protected] Web: www.csis.org/burke/reports Options in Dealing with Iran’s Nuclear Program By Abdullah Toukan and Anthony H. Cordesman, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy March 2010 www.csis.org | Page Summary & Conclusions 4 Overview of Iran’s Energy Requirements 22 Iran’s Nuclear Facilities 39 Estimated Timeline for Iran producing Nuclear Weapons 50 Iranian Threat Perception & Response 57 U.S. Response to Iranian Threat Perceptions West Perceptions of Iranian Threat & Options in dealing with Iran The Military Balance: 62 Israel GCC Iran Options: Diplomacy & Sanctions 92 Options: Active Defense and Deterrence 102 Option: Preemptive Military Strike 115 Israeli Strike 127 Scenario I: Conventional Air Strike 2 Page Israeli Strike 139 Scenario II: Low Yield Earth Penetrating Nuclear Weapons: Ballistic Missiles Sea Launched Cruise Missiles GCC Strike 146 U.S. Strike 150 Iranian Response 156 Ballistic Missile Attack on Israeli Nuclear and Missile Facilities 162 Oil Facilities & Oil Transit Chokepoints 165 Terrorism & Weapons of Mass Destruction 174 Chemical Terrorism 179 Biological Terrorism 183 Radiological (“Dirty Bomb”) Terrorism 188 Appendix: 198 Target Analysis of Iranian Nuclear Facilities and Mission Force Payload 3 Summary & Conclusion 4 • Iran is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and ranks among the world’s top three holders of both proven oil and natural gas reserves. Iran is OPEC’s second-largest producer and exporter after Saudi Arabia, and is the fourth-largest exporter of crude oil globally after Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Norway.