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Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER June 2018 Working Paper 2018-06 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/06/ Suggested citation: Lopez, Jose A., Kris James Mitchener. 2018. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2018-06 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER* May 9, 2018 ABSTRACT. Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. -
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945
Records of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1891-1957, Record Group 85 New Orleans, Louisiana Crew Lists of Vessels Arriving at New Orleans, LA, 1910-1945. T939. 311 rolls. (~A complete list of rolls has been added.) Roll Volumes Dates 1 1-3 January-June, 1910 2 4-5 July-October, 1910 3 6-7 November, 1910-February, 1911 4 8-9 March-June, 1911 5 10-11 July-October, 1911 6 12-13 November, 1911-February, 1912 7 14-15 March-June, 1912 8 16-17 July-October, 1912 9 18-19 November, 1912-February, 1913 10 20-21 March-June, 1913 11 22-23 July-October, 1913 12 24-25 November, 1913-February, 1914 13 26 March-April, 1914 14 27 May-June, 1914 15 28-29 July-October, 1914 16 30-31 November, 1914-February, 1915 17 32 March-April, 1915 18 33 May-June, 1915 19 34-35 July-October, 1915 20 36-37 November, 1915-February, 1916 21 38-39 March-June, 1916 22 40-41 July-October, 1916 23 42-43 November, 1916-February, 1917 24 44 March-April, 1917 25 45 May-June, 1917 26 46 July-August, 1917 27 47 September-October, 1917 28 48 November-December, 1917 29 49-50 Jan. 1-Mar. 15, 1918 30 51-53 Mar. 16-Apr. 30, 1918 31 56-59 June 1-Aug. 15, 1918 32 60-64 Aug. 16-0ct. 31, 1918 33 65-69 Nov. 1', 1918-Jan. 15, 1919 34 70-73 Jan. 16-Mar. 31, 1919 35 74-77 April-May, 1919 36 78-79 June-July, 1919 37 80-81 August-September, 1919 38 82-83 October-November, 1919 39 84-85 December, 1919-January, 1920 40 86-87 February-March, 1920 41 88-89 April-May, 1920 42 90 June, 1920 43 91 July, 1920 44 92 August, 1920 45 93 September, 1920 46 94 October, 1920 47 95-96 November, 1920 48 97-98 December, 1920 49 99-100 Jan. -
JOHNSTOWN V. the NEGRO: SOUTHERN MIGRANTS and the EXODUS of 1923
JOHNSTOWN v. THE NEGRO: SOUTHERN MIGRANTS AND THE EXODUS OF 1923 BY RICHARD B. SHERMAN* ONE of the most significant demographic changes in American history was the vast migration of Southern Negroes to the North during and shortly after the First World War. Within a period of a few years hundreds of thousands of Negroes found opportunities in the North that heretofore had been denied to them. However, the migration also made clearer than ever before the national character of American racial problems. Particularly in the early stages, it meant that an economically and culturally oppressed minority was placed in sharp and unaccustomed contact with people in Northern communities who were unprepared for the change. This process provided a dramatic test of the devotion of Americans to their ideals of freedom and equality. In some areas there were heartening instances of successful adjustment. But there were also dismaying failures. An example of the latter was provided during the early 1920's by Johnstown, Pennsylvania, where community apathy and demagogic leadership resulted in misfortune for many of the newcomers. From 1915 through the 1920's the Negro's northward migration came in two main phases, and Johnstown was affected by both. The first phase reached a peak between 1916 and 1917, and then sharply declined for a few years. A second phase was under way by 1922 and culminated the next year. Prompted by economic and social oppression in the South, and lured by the opportunities presented by labor shortages in the North, vast numbers of Negroes moved off the land, to the cities, and into the North.] *Dr. -
Thirty-Second Annual List of Papers
1923.] LIST OF PUBLISHED PAPERS 485 THIRTY-SECOND ANNUAL LIST OF PAPERS READ BEFORE THE AMERICAN MATHEMATICAL SOCIETY AND SUBSEQUENTLY PUBLISHED, INCLUDING REFERENCES TO THE PLACES OF PUBLICATION ALEXANDER, J. W. A proof and extension of the Jordan-Brouwer separa tion theorem. Read April 29, 1916. Transactions of this Society, vol. 23, No. 4, pp. 333-349; June, 1922. Invariant points of a surface transformation of given class. Read Dec. 28, 1922. Transactions of this Society, vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 173- 184; April, 1923. BARNETT, I. A. Differential equations with a continuous infinitude of variables. Read Dec. 28, 1918. American Journal of Mathematics, vol. 44, No. 3, pp. 172-190; July, 1922. Linear partial differential equations with a continuous infinitude of variables. Read Dec. 28, 1918, and April 24, 1920. American Journal of Mathematics, vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 42-53; Jan., 1923. BELL, E. T. On restricted systems of higher indeterminate equations. Read (San Francisco) June 18, 1920. Transactions of this Society, vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 483-488; Oct., 1921. Anharmonic polynomial generalizations of the numbers of Bernoulli and Euler. Read (San Francisco) April 9, 1921. Transactions of this Society, vol. 24, No. 2, pp. 89-112; Sept., 1922. Periodicities in the theory of partitions. Read (San Francisco) April 8, 1922. Annals of Mathematics, (2), vol. 24, No. 1, pp. 1-22; Sept., 1922. Relations between the numbers of Bernoulli, Euler, Genocchi, and Lucas. Read (San Francisco) April 8, 1922. Messenger of Mathe matics, vol. 52, No. 4, pp. 56-64, and No. 5, pp. 65-68; Aug. -
Volume 41, Number 02 (February 1923) James Francis Cooke
Gardner-Webb University Digital Commons @ Gardner-Webb University The tudeE Magazine: 1883-1957 John R. Dover Memorial Library 2-1-1923 Volume 41, Number 02 (February 1923) James Francis Cooke Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.gardner-webb.edu/etude Part of the Composition Commons, Ethnomusicology Commons, Fine Arts Commons, History Commons, Liturgy and Worship Commons, Music Education Commons, Musicology Commons, Music Pedagogy Commons, Music Performance Commons, Music Practice Commons, and the Music Theory Commons Recommended Citation Cooke, James Francis. "Volume 41, Number 02 (February 1923)." , (1923). https://digitalcommons.gardner-webb.edu/etude/698 This Book is brought to you for free and open access by the John R. Dover Memorial Library at Digital Commons @ Gardner-Webb University. It has been accepted for inclusion in The tudeE Magazine: 1883-1957 by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ Gardner-Webb University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. 4 ETUDE MUSIC MAGAZINE FEBRUARY, 1923 A Wealth of Rewards For Your Spare Time Just a little enthusiastic time spent in get¬ Thousands Have Done Everybody Needs Some ting new subscriptions for ETUDE MUSIC This for Years of MAGAZINE will bring them to you without Why Not YOU ? These Premiums one penny outlay. For Three New Subscriptions O’CEDAR MOP. WATER^^: PROOF APRON,i?ub8Criplion neat and attractive. I YourOwn Subscription FREE Our Most Popular Premium LAVALLIERE—solid gold, large amethyst and THREE PIECE SHIRTWAIST SET—consists 4 pearls with baroque pearl pendant. of bar pin and two small pins—gold filled, Send three subscriptions at $2.00 each ($6.00 in all) and very popular. -
The Egyptian, October 16, 1923
Southern Illinois University Carbondale OpenSIUC October 1923 Daily Egyptian 1923 10-16-1923 The gE yptian, October 16, 1923 Egyptian Staff Follow this and additional works at: http://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/de_October1923 Volume 4, Issue 3 Recommended Citation Egyptian Staff, "The gE yptian, October 16, 1923" (1923). October 1923. Paper 3. http://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/de_October1923/3 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Daily Egyptian 1923 at OpenSIUC. It has been accepted for inclusion in October 1923 by an authorized administrator of OpenSIUC. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Read by Four Thousand Students, Faculty and Friends of the 'School Volume IV Carbondale, Illinois, October 16. 1923 Number J f~ ..... : wIth 'hard work. He Md'the advantage ot the public s~hoor" 01 hi~' day and attended the "Oak Grove" school. He also at· tended ui'e Higbland schOOl whete he prepared fOr oollege. I~ 1864 he and bls brother" George, entered McKenliree Chllege aM' roomeli In' tlIe hlCime of Professor ,neneen, tbe father of Ex!.Governar Charles S. Deneen. Yonng Deneen and youug Parkinson were play:mate friends anil the youthful ties which were formed In those days we~e strengthened as the two youth1l grew' olde~ until tbey rlpeneli Into a fMendehip whidb bas lasteh even unto death. Dr. Parkinson graduatea from McKeddree College while Dr. Robert Allyn was 'president of the 'ooilege, Here I'.notllElr acquaintance grew into respect and love and warm affection. FOllowIng graduation Dr. PiI!rkiDsoD began teaching, beginning at Carmi He later became a member of tbe faculty of Jennings Seminary, Aurora, IIlfllols. -
A Social Analysis of KPD Supporters: the Hamburg Insurrectionaries Of
LARRY PETERSON A SOCIAL ANALYSIS OF KPD SUPPORTERS: THE HAMBURG INSURRECTION- ARIES OF OCTOBER 1923* Although much has been written about the history of the German Communist Party, little is known about who actually belonged to it or supported it. Yet knowledge of the social composition of German Communism is an important, in many ways crucial, factor in assessing the role of the KPD in the development of the German workers' movement during the Weimar Republic. Aside from a census of party members conducted by the national leadership in 1927, and voting returns in elections, there are no national sources on which to base an analysis of the social structure of the Communist movement in Germany. Local and regional sources, though sporadically preserved and until now little ex- ploited, offer an alternative way to determine the social bases of German Communism. This article contributes to the history of the KPD by attempting to analyze one source about support for German Communism in a major industrial city. In October 1923 the KPD staged an insurrection in Hamburg, resulting in the arrest and conviction of over 800 persons. A social analysis of these known insurrectionaries can indicate some of the sources of support for the KPD and suggest some of the ways in which the KPD fit into the history of the German working class and workers' move- ment. The Hamburg insurrection of October 1923 was itself a political mis- understanding. In early October, at the height of the inflation, the KPD entered coalition governments with the Social Democratic Party in Saxony and Thuringia. -
April, 1923. -A. J. H. Bibliography.
APRIL,1923. MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW. 21 1 in fact we have never before experienced such severe electrical die- Monthly and annual precipitation (inche8)jor Porto Veh,Bzaeil. turbances m has been the case during the pat two month * * *. RAINFALL AT PORT0 VELHO. BRAZIL.’ The monthly and annual recipitation at Port0 Velho, 1921.. .. Brazil, RS recorded by the sadeira Mamore Railway Co. has been published; a we have now received the statistics I Communlrakd by Dr. F. L. HOR~~,prudential Life ~nsuranceCO. for 1921 and the first 6 months of 1933, &s in the table MO.WE*THER REV.,Awl 1m150:416. below. -A. J. H. BIBLIOGRAPHY. RECENT ADDITIONS TO THE WEATHER BUREAU LIBRARY. Sievers, F. J., & Holtz,. H. F. Influence of precipitation on soil com oeition and on mil organic C. FITZHUGHTALYAN. Meteoroloqist in Charge of Library. matter maintenance. Pullman, $&: 1923. 32 p. map 23 cm. (Washington. State coll. Agnc. exp. eta. Bulletid no.~~. 176.- .. Fehruarv.- ~.. The following have been selected from amonu the titles ____ .In 1923.) U. S. Department of a iculture. of books recently received as representing txose most Rain-making not gasible, says U. S. Weather bureau. washing- likely to be useful to Weather Bureau officials in their ton.] 1923. 36 cm. (U. S. Dept. agric. Office of sec. meteorological work and studies: Press service. R eleased for Dublicationa March 21. 1923.) 0. S. Department of the interior. Baldit, Albert. Wind cave, National park, South Dakota. Washington. Etudes 616mentaires de mCt6orologie pratique. 2nd ed. Paris. 1922. 24 p. illus. cm. (National park service.) 1922. xG, 428 D. -
The Foreign Service Journal, July 1923 (American Consular Bulletin)
$4.00 A YEAR 35 CENTS A COPY iiiiiiimiiiiiiiiiiiiimiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiimiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiimiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiL; iiiiimiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiimiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiimiiiiiiMiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiMiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiMiiiiiT; RESOURCES $14,000,000.00 Formerly you sent your Pass Book to the bank to be bal¬ anced, and later attempted to reconcile your check book balance with the result. Now under our modern system this labor is transferred to our staff and you re¬ ceive by mail a complete statement each month, which shows all deposits, all withdrawals and your exact balance. YOUR PASS BOOK IS ALWAYS IN YOUR POSSESSION FEDERAL-AMERICAN NATIONAL BANK WASHINGTON, D. C. Originators of the Monthly Statement System in Washington iiiiHliiimmmiiiimimiiiimiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiHmiiiiMimiiimimmmiimmmiiimimimiiimmiiiiiiiiiiiiHiiiiiiimiK: CONSUL' LLETIN PUBLISHED MONTHLY BY THE AMERICAN CONSULAR ASSOCIATION VOL. V, No. 7 WASHINGTON, D. C. JULY, 1923 The Trade Conferences Two Spring Conferences Held in the Interests of Trade Promotion and Attended by State Depart¬ ment Officials and Consular Officers 1. NATIONAL FOREIGN TRADE COUNCIL, NEW piledriver and related railway equipment, which ORLEANS had lost its equilibrium during a storm the night A FEATURE of the Tenth Annual Conven¬ before. Judging from the decidedly moderate cost tion of the National Foreign Trade Coun¬ of a good breakfast at a Gulfport restaurant, that -
Germany 1919-1941 U.S
U.S. MILITARY INTELLIGENCE REPORTS : GERMANY 1919-1941 U.S. MILITARY INTELLIGENCE REPORTS: GERMANY, 1919-1941 Edited by Dale Reynolds Guide Compiled by Robert Lester A Microfilm Project of UNIVERSITY PUBLICATIONS OF AMERICA, INC. 44 North Market Street • Frederick, MD 21701 Copyright© 1983 by University Publications of America, Inc. All rights reserved. ISBN 0-89093^26-6. Note on Sources The Documents in this Collection are from the National Archives and Record Service, Washington, D.C., Record Group #165. Mil- itary Intelligence Division Files: Germany. TABLE OF CONTENTS Red Index 1 Reel I 1 Reel II 6 Reel III 10 Reel IV 15 Reel V 18 Reel VI 22 Reel VII 25 Reel VIII 29 Reel IX 31 Reel X 33 Reel XI 33 Reel XII 34 Reel XIII 35 Reel XIV 38 Reel XV 39 Reel XVI 41 Reel XVII 43 Reel XVIII 45 Reel XIX 47 Reel XX 49 Reel XXI 52 Reel XXII 54 Reel XXIII 56 Reel XXIV 58 Reel XXV 61 Reel XXVI 63 Reel XXVII 65 Reel XXVIII 68 Subject Index 71 Dates to Remember February 3,1917 Severance of U.S. Diplomatic Relations with Germany; Declara- tion of War November 11,1918 Armistice December 1, 1918 U.S. Troops of the 3rd Army cross the Rhine and Occupy the Rhine Province July 2,1919 Departure of the U.S. 3rd Army; the U.S. Army of the Rhine Occupies Coblenz in the Rhine Province December 10, 1921 Presentation of Credentials of the U.S. Charge d'Affaires in Berlin April 22, 1922 Withdrawal of U.S. -
The Treaty of Versailles, Inflation and Stabilization
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: German Business Cycles, 1924-1933 Volume Author/Editor: Carl T. Schmidt Volume Publisher: NBER Volume ISBN: 0-87014-024-8 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/schm34-1 Publication Date: 1934 Chapter Title: The Treaty of Versailles, Inflation and Stabilization Chapter Author: Carl T. Schmidt Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4933 Chapter pages in book: (p. 1 - 24) GERMAN BUSINESS CYCLES 1924—1933 CHAPTER ONE THE TREATY OF VERSAILLES, INFLATION AND STABILIZATION THE fateful decade of war, revolution and currency inflation— 1914—24—witnessed sweeping changes in the economic life of Germany. On the eve of the World War, Germany was one of the great economic powers of the world. In industrial activity, in world commerce, in international finance, in the aggres- siveness and resourcefulness of its business leaders, it challenged or surpassed every one of its rivals. Tenyears later the formerly powerful German economy was perilously near the brink of chaos. The tremendous spiritual and material demands of a disastrous war,the acceptance of thesevere provisions of the treaty of peace, the domestic in- stability attending political revolution, and the catastrophic currency inflation—these factors had wrought havoc in the business life of the nation. Some notion of the economic consequences of Germany's defeat in the World War and of its plunge into the maelstrom of inflation is essential 3] to an appreciation of the character of the fluctua- tions in its economy after the return to more stable conditions, for certain peculiar features of these fluctuations were intimately related to structural changes imposed upon it by the War, the peace treaty and the currency inflation. -
The Ends of Four Big Inflations
This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Inflation: Causes and Effects Volume Author/Editor: Robert E. Hall Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-31323-9 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/hall82-1 Publication Date: 1982 Chapter Title: The Ends of Four Big Inflations Chapter Author: Thomas J. Sargent Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11452 Chapter pages in book: (p. 41 - 98) The Ends of Four Big Inflations Thomas J. Sargent 2.1 Introduction Since the middle 1960s, many Western economies have experienced persistent and growing rates of inflation. Some prominent economists and statesmen have become convinced that this inflation has a stubborn, self-sustaining momentum and that either it simply is not susceptible to cure by conventional measures of monetary and fiscal restraint or, in terms of the consequent widespread and sustained unemployment, the cost of eradicating inflation by monetary and fiscal measures would be prohibitively high. It is often claimed that there is an underlying rate of inflation which responds slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal measures.1 Evidently, this underlying rate of inflation is the rate of inflation that firms and workers have come to expect will prevail in the future. There is momentum in this process because firms and workers supposedly form their expectations by extrapolating past rates of inflation into the future. If this is true, the years from the middle 1960s to the early 1980s have left firms and workers with a legacy of high expected rates of inflation which promise to respond only slowly, if at all, to restrictive monetary and fiscal policy actions.