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This is the published version: Hirst, Alistair J., Werner, Guy F., Heislers, Simon, White, Camille A. and Spooner, Daniel 2011, Port Phillip Bay annual trawl sub‐program milestone report no. 4. Department of Primary Industries, Queenscliff, Vic. Available from Deakin Research Online: http://hdl.handle.net/10536/DRO/DU:30059165 Reproduced with the kind permission of the copyright owner. Copyright : 2011, Department of Primary Industries Port Phillip Bay Annual Trawl Sub-Program Milestone Report No. 4 (2011) No. 139 July 2011 Port Phillip Bay Annual Trawl Sub- Program Milestone Report No. 4 (2011) Alastair J. Hirst, Guy F. Werner, Simon Heislers, Camille A. White and Daniel Spooner July 2011 Fisheries Victoria Technical Report Series No. 139 If you would like to receive this Copyright The State of Victoria, Department information/publication in an of Primary Industries, 2011. accessible format (such as large This publication is copyright. No part may be print or audio) please call the reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Customer Service Centre on: Copyright Act 1968. 136 186, TTY: 1800 122 969, Authorised by the Victorian Government, GPO or email Box 4440, Melbourne,Victoria 3001. [email protected] Printed by Fisheries Victoria, Queenscliff, Victoria Published: Fisheries Victoria Department of Primary Preferred way to cite: Industries, Queenscliff Centre PO Box 114, Hirst, A.J., Werner, G., Heislers, S., White, C.A, Queenscliff, Victoria 3225 Australia. and Spooner, D. (2011) Port Phillip Bay Annual Trawl Sub-Program Milestone Report No. 4 (2011). Fisheries Victoria Technical Report General disclaimer Series No. 139, July 2011. Department of This publication may be of assistance to you but Primary Industries, Queenscliff, Victoria, the State of Victoria and its employees do not Australia. 52 pp. guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all ISSN 1835-4785 liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any ISBN information in this publication. ii Executive Summary The Port Phillip Bay (PPB) Annual Trawl Sub- in the intermediate and deep regions from Program of the Channel Deepening Baywide 2009 onwards. There was no change in the Monitoring Programs is a continuation of the rate of decline between 2004/05–07 and PPB Annual Trawl Program that has been 2008–11 in the shallow, intermediate and conducted by the Department of Primary deep regions. Industries, for the most part annually, since • Eastern shovelnose stingaree biomass, but 1990. This sub-program aims to detect trends in not abundance, in the west region was demersal fish communities in PPB at both detected to be significantly lower for the shorter and longer time scales. The specific period 2008–2011 compared to the objective is to detect interannual changes in the background period 2005–2007. abundance of all common fish in PPB outside of expected variability. Sand flathead was once the most abundant demersal fish species in Port Phillip Bay, but Fish populations typically vary in space and was only the 8 th most abundant species caught time. In a comparatively shallow bay like PPB, by the trawl in 2011. Between 2004 and 2011 fish stocks are expected to vary at annual, sand flathead biomass declined in all regions of multi-year and decadal time scales as Port Phillip Bay, except the west region for conditions change. This program comprises: which the statistical power to detect change is • A statistical test of expected variation to low. Sand flathead biomass in PPB has declined examine multi-year trends in fish by 85–90% in the shallow, intermediate and populations between the periods 2004/05– deep regions, and by 66% in the west region 2007 and 2008–2011, and since 2000. The analyses indicate this is a • Long-term analysis of trends in fish baywide phenomenon. populations for the period 1990–2011. The significant decline in sand flathead biomass This report incorporates the results of the and abundance in PPB is consistent with: annual trawl survey undertaken in March 2011 • A longer-term pattern of decline observed for four regions of PPB. The emphasis is on for PPB trawl catches linked to change analysis of biomass and abundance of four key points in 2000/2002, and attributed to the fish species (eastern shovelnose stingaree, sand absence of any significant recruitment for flathead, sparsely spotted stingaree and spiny this species since the mid 1990s gurnard). Additional analysis examining long- • Declining recreational catch rates for sand term trends was undertaken using Bayesian flathead during the period 2008–2010 change point analysis for the four key species, • Declining catch rates (catch per unit effort) plus three additional species (globefish, for the commercial sand flathead fishery in snapper and banjo ray) and total fish and PPB since the late 1980s. cephalopod biomass - for which there was high statistical power to detect temporal changes in Commercial sand flathead catches in PPB first biomass, for the period 1990–2011. decline in the 1960s, and the most recent survey data are consistent with a long-term decline Changes outside expected observed for PPB as a whole. variability: 2008–2011 The ecological implications of this decline are Biomass and abundance was within expected largely unknown. Sand flathead are predatory variability for all key species for the reporting fish that prey on small fish and decapods, and period 2008–11 compared with the background in turn, are preyed upon by larger predatory periods 2004–07 (for the deep and intermediate fish in PPB including banjo rays, yank flathead regions) and 2005–07 (for the shallow and west and sharks. regions), with the following exceptions: By comparison, the decline in biomass of • Sand flathead biomass and abundance were eastern shovelnose stingaree in the west region significantly lower than the background is likely to have had little impact on the period in the shallow region from 2011, and iii population status of this fish species in PPB have affected the net input of nutrients into because: PPB, and the way in which nutrients are stored and utilised by different biological components. • The pattern is localised and <5% of the stingaree population is estimated to reside Bayesian statistical analysis highlights a in the west region common change point reflecting either a step- • Stingaree populations in PPB were wise change, or a change in the trend, for augmented by strong recruitment events in catches following 2000. The timing of these 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2011. changes most closely correspond with the onset of major environmental changes in the Bay, Changes in fish communities: including the long-term drought which commenced in the late “90s. It also appears that 1990–2011 changes in fish biomass were not uniform The number, timing, and magnitude of changes across regions, and that over shorter time to demersal fish populations in PPB over the scales, variation in recruitment has also played last 20 years was analysed in time series using a role for some species. Bayesian change point analysis, whereas the The period 2008–2011 was characterised by spatial extent of changes within PPB was relative stability and the absence of any major examined by analysing fish populations within change points, with the exception of the regions that correspond primarily with changes continuing decline of sand flathead from 2000 in depth. onwards in PPB. Bayesian change point analysis, undertaken on time series from 1990–2011, confirmed Conclusions significant changes in the biomass of demersal Interannual variation for all fish species, except fish species. Change point may be either a step- eastern shovelnose stingaree in the west region change, which is an abrupt change in and sand flathead in the shallow, intermediate abundance; a trend-change, which is an abrupt and deep regions, were within expected change in the trend; or both. Change points variability for PPB during the reporting period were identified for: 2008-2011. • Sand flathead biomass in 2000 and 2004 in the deep; 2002 and 2006 in the intermediate The decline in eastern shovelnose stingaree region; and 2002 in the west region biomass in the west region has little ecological consequence for PPB as a whole. • Eastern shovelnose stingaree biomass in 2000 in the deep region The decline in sand flathead abundance and • Spiny gurnard biomass in 1992 for the west biomass in the shallow, intermediate and deep region, and in 2000 for the deep region regions between 2004–2007 and 2008–2011 • reflects an on-going trend in PPB that can be Snapper biomass in 2000 in the shallow traced back to 2000 for the trawl data and region possibly earlier using commercial fisheries • Total fish biomass in 2005 in the data. The ecological implications of this decline intermediate region. for PPB are largely unknown. No change points were identified for sparsely The contrasting biomass trends for two of the spotted stingaree, globefish or banjo ray most abundant and recreationally important populations in PPB from 1990 to 2011. fish species in PPB, sand flathead and snapper, over the last 2 decades can be partly explained All change points were associated with by variation in recruitment. Whereas, the sand reductions in biomass, with the exception of flathead population has not experienced snapper biomass in the shallow region which significant recruitment since 1993, snapper have increased after 2000. This finding is consistent with higher commercial and recreational catch experienced three major recruitment events rates for adult snapper in PPB from 2002 since 1998 that have augmented population numbers in PPB. The causes for these differing onwards. recruitment patterns remain unknown at the Demersal fish assemblages in PPB have present time. undergone significant changes over the past Fish biomass and abundance in the period two decades.