06 November 2012 EEMEA/Russia&South Africa&Turkey Equity Research Food Retail EEMEA food retail universe Research Analysts SECTOR REVIEW Victoria Petrova 49 69 75 38 2272
[email protected] Selecting country opportunities Onur Muminoglu 90 212 349 0454 Figure 1: EEMEA coverage table
[email protected] EV/EBITDA PE Dean Ginsberg Company & country Rating TP EBITDA CAGR 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 27 011 012 80 64 Potential Russia New Old New Old upside 12-15E
[email protected] Magnit OP OP $42 $36 16% 16% 12,8 11,4 23,4 21,6 X5 N N $20 $21 6% 17% 8,0 7,1 19,4 14,9 Irina Karacharskova Dixy N OP RUB370 RUB430 14% 31% 8,0 6,3 54,0 22,0 7 495 967 8349 Okey UP UP $8.6 $8.0 -13% 27% 10,7 8,4 20,6 16,3
[email protected] Turkey BIM N N TRY76.9 TRY76.9 -5% 20% 24,4 19,0 36,5 27,9 Migros OP OP TRY23.75 TRY23.75 23% 14% 13,1 11,0 57,2 33,8 South Africa Spar N N R126 R126 4% 13% 12,0 10,6 20,0 16,6 Shoprite UP UP R142 R142 -27% 14% 17,6 15,0 29,5 23,5 MassMart N N R175 R175 -1% 23% 13,4 11,5 30,6 25,1 Pick n Pay OP OP R49 R49 15% 20% 9,9 10,7 29,8 29,7 Source: Credit Suisse estimates; priced as of 1 November 2012, Shoprite data is 2012A Following macro and company-specific developments in EEMEA food retail, we highlight opportunities and consider the trends.