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EEMEA Food Retail Universe Research Analysts SECTOR REVIEW

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EEMEA Food Retail Universe Research Analysts SECTOR REVIEW 06 November 2012 EEMEA/Russia&South Africa&Turkey Equity Research Food Retail EEMEA food retail universe Research Analysts SECTOR REVIEW Victoria Petrova 49 69 75 38 2272 [email protected] Selecting country opportunities Onur Muminoglu 90 212 349 0454 Figure 1: EEMEA coverage table [email protected] EV/EBITDA PE Dean Ginsberg Company & country Rating TP EBITDA CAGR 2012E 2013E 2012E 2013E 27 011 012 80 64 Potential Russia New Old New Old upside 12-15E [email protected] Magnit OP OP $42 $36 16% 16% 12,8 11,4 23,4 21,6 X5 N N $20 $21 6% 17% 8,0 7,1 19,4 14,9 Irina Karacharskova Dixy N OP RUB370 RUB430 14% 31% 8,0 6,3 54,0 22,0 7 495 967 8349 Okey UP UP $8.6 $8.0 -13% 27% 10,7 8,4 20,6 16,3 [email protected] Turkey BIM N N TRY76.9 TRY76.9 -5% 20% 24,4 19,0 36,5 27,9 Migros OP OP TRY23.75 TRY23.75 23% 14% 13,1 11,0 57,2 33,8 South Africa Spar N N R126 R126 4% 13% 12,0 10,6 20,0 16,6 Shoprite UP UP R142 R142 -27% 14% 17,6 15,0 29,5 23,5 MassMart N N R175 R175 -1% 23% 13,4 11,5 30,6 25,1 Pick n Pay OP OP R49 R49 15% 20% 9,9 10,7 29,8 29,7 Source: Credit Suisse estimates; priced as of 1 November 2012, Shoprite data is 2012A Following macro and company-specific developments in EEMEA food retail, we highlight opportunities and consider the trends. We are positive on Russian retailers due to (i) low modern retail penetration and their clear competitive advantages; (ii) supportive macro trends and (iii) potential upside in 2013 from regulatory changes. We expect sequential improvement in consumer spend in Turkey supported by (i) more favourable monetary environment ahead; (ii) the returns for saving tools have become even less attractive which should lead to an increase in consumption. South African food retail continues to show top line growth on the back of food inflation, space expansion and opportunities in Africa. We highlight our top picks: Magnit (OP, TP $42), Migros (OP, TP TRY23.75) and Pick n Pay (OP, TP R49). EEMEA context: We provide a detailed comparative analysis of retailers’ key metrics giving investors a cross regional overview of the EEMEA retail universe. We highlight that Dixy offers the highest EBITDA CAGR, Magnit offers strongest EBITDA margins, BIM has the strongest LfL and almost no debt, while SA retailers are characterised by superior net margins and low debt ratios. Exposure to sector fundamentals through country picks: Magnit (OP, TP increased to US$42) continues to be our Russian top pick, given (i) its exceptional execution, communication and earnings visibility, and (ii) a combination of stronger than expected 2012E growth and profitability. In Turkey, we prefer Migros given it is (i) well positioned to benefit from a potential consumer recovery; (ii) a potential M&A story and (iii) has shown strong execution. In South African, we like Pick n Pay (OP, R49), which is in a turnaround and awaiting the arrival of new CEO Richard Brasher (ex Tesco). We downgrade Dixy to Neutral with a revised TP of RUB370 (from RUB430), given the challenging integration process. We think lack of visibility on earnings limits the current investment case—we would prefer more clarity. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/ researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION™ Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 06 November 2012 Table of contents Key charts: Cross regional performance comparison tables 4 Executive summary 5 EEMEA universe valuation 6 Russian macro update 7 Macro trends 8 Russia: Supportive macro and further regulatory catalysts 8 Turkish macro update 9 South Africa macro update 11 A note on Credit Suisse PEERs 12 Magnit (MGNTq.L) 13 Russian food retail top pick: Room for more surprises 13 Magnit MGNTq.L 14 Changes in the model 15 Credit Suisse HOLT® analysis 17 X5 Retail Group (PJPq.L) 19 Poor performance and lack of visibility 19 X5 Retail Group PJPq.L 20 Changes in the model 21 Credit Suisse HOLT analysis 23 Dixy Group of Companies (DIXY.MM) 25 Looking for better momentum, turning Neutral 25 Dixy Group of Companies DIXY.MM 26 Model revisions 27 Dixy execution risks: Lessons from X5 case study 27 Key risks to our forecasts 28 Dixy 3Q12 preview 30 Credit Suisse HOLT analysis 30 Okey (OKEYq.L) 32 Concerns over store openings, new format CAPEX and profitability profiles 32 Okey OKEYq.L 33 Changes in the model 34 Credit Suisse HOLT analysis 36 Turkish food retail: Prefer cyclical exposure in the Turkish consumer 38 BIM (BIMAS.IS) 39 Expect small recovery after weak 2Q11A 39 BIM BIMAS.IS 40 3Q preview 41 Migros (MGROS.IS) 43 Fundamentally strong 43 Migros MGROS.IS 44 3Q preview 45 South Africa retail macro trends 47 South Africa: Food retail sales remain robust, but generally priced in… 47 Spar Group (SPPJ.J) 49 2H12 EPS to be strong 49 Spar Group SPPJ.J 50 Operational update 51 Shoprite Holdings Limited (SHPJ.J) 55 1Q13 trading update: paying up for Africa …. 55 Shoprite Holdings Limited SHPJ.J 56 Focus Charts 57 What Shoprite share price is implying? 58 MassMart Holding (MSMJ.J) 61 EEMEA food retail universe 2 06 November 2012 Updating forecast for change in year end 61 MassMart Holding MSMJ.J 62 Outlook for FY12 64 Divisional outlook 65 Pick n Pay (PIKJ.J) 69 Picking a new leader for a turnaround…. 69 Pick n Pay PIKJ.J 70 Picking a new leader for a turnaround 71 EEMEA food retail universe 3 06 November 2012 Key charts: Cross regional performance comparison tables Figure 2: EBITDA CAGR 2012-15E Figure 3: Expected LFL growth, yoy 35% 16% 31,0% 14% 30% 27,1% 12% 25% 23% 10% 19,60% 20% 20% 8% 16,6% 15,7% 6% 15% 12,80%13,50% 14% 4% 10% 2% 0% 5% 2011A 2012E 2013E -2% 0% Spar Dixy Migros Magnit X5 andPay Pick BIM MassMart Okey Shoprite -4% X5 Magnit Okey Dixy BIM Migros (sales/sqm) MassMart Pick and Pay Shoprite Spar Source: Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 4: Gross margin, % Figure 5: EBITDA margin, % 30% 12% 25% 10% 20% 8% 15% 6% 10% 4% 5% 2% 0% 0% Okey X5 Magnit Dixy BIM Migros MassMart andPay Pick Shoprite Spar Dixy X5 Magnit Okey BIM Migros MassMart andPay Pick Shoprite Spar 2011A 2012E 2013E 2011A 2012E 2013E Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 6: Net margin, % Figure 7: Net debt to EBITDA 6% 5.0x 5% 4.0x 4% 3.0x 3% 2.0x 2% 1.0x 1% 0.0x Migros Pay and Pick Magnit Okey Dixy BIM MassMart Shoprite Spar 0% X5 Magnit BIM Pay and Pick X5 Okey Dixy (CS adj) Migros MassMart Shoprite Spar -1% -1.0x -2% -2.0x 2011A 2012E 2013E 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates EEMEA food retail universe 4 06 November 2012 Executive summary In this report, we highlight regional top picks which we rate Outperform. We suggest investors seek exposure to the sector fundamentals through Magnit, Migros and Pick n Pay. We rate Magnit Outperform given (i) its exceptional execution, communication and visibility of earnings and (ii) combination of stronger than expected 2012E growth and profitability. In Turkey, we prefer Migros given that it is (i) well positioned to benefit from a potential consumer recovery; (ii) a potential M& story and (iii) it has shown strong execution. We believe Pick n Pay (OP, R49), which is in the middle of a turnaround and awaiting the arrival of new CEO Richard Brasher (ex Tesco), offers the best entry point into the South African food retail sector. We downgrade Dixy to Neutral (from Outperform) and reiterate our Neutral ratings on BIM, Spar and MassMart. Okey and Shoprite remain our least preferred stocks and are rated Underperform. Figure 8: Executive summary table Companies rated Outperform Russia Turkey South Africa Magnit Migros Pick n Pay Upside to TP 16% 23% 15% EV/EBITDA 2013 11,4 11,0 10,7 PE 2013 21,6 33,8 29,7 EBITDA margin in 2013E 9,5% 6,0% 3,2% Net margin in 2013E 4,5% 1,4% 1,1% Sales growth in '13 (in local ccy) 27% 14% 9% EBITDA CAGR 12-15E 16% 14% 20% FCF positive in 2014E 2013E 2015E Net debt to EBITDA in 2013E 1,2 3,2 0,7 Companies rated Neutral Russia Turkey South Africa X5 Dixy BIM Spar MassMart Upside to TP 6% 14% -5% 4% -27% EV/EBITDA 2013 7,1 6,3 19,0 10,6 11,5 PE 2013 14,9 22,0 27,9 16,6 25,1 = EBITDA margin in 2013E 6,9% 5,9% 5,1% 4,0% 4,5% Net margin in 2013E 1,9% 1,0% 3,6% 2,7% 2,1% Sales growth in '13 (in local ccy) 17,3% 24,4% 21,7% 12,2% 11,6% EBITDA CAGR 12-15E 17% 31% 20% 13% 23% FCF positive in 2014E 2014E FCF +ve FCF +ve FCF +ve Net debt to EBITDA in 2013E 3,0 2,6 -0,7 -0,6 0,2 Companies rated Underperform Russia Turkey South Africa Okey N/A Shoprite Upside to TP -13% -27% EV/EBITDA 2013 8,4 15,0 PE 2013 16,3 23,5 EBITDA margin in 2013E 8,0% 7,0% Net margin in 2013E 3,3% 4,2% Sales growth in '13 (in local ccy) 29% 15% EBITDA CAGR 12-15E 27% 14% FCF positive in 2013E FCF +ve Net debt to EBITDA in 2013E 1,6 -0,8 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimate, prices and multiples as of 1 November 2012 EEMEA food retail universe 5 06 November 2012
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