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Premium Position in Poland Leads To… Recommendation: HOLD Vs Previous Recommendation BUY

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Premium Position in Poland Leads To… Recommendation: HOLD Vs Previous Recommendation BUY MMAASSTTEERRSS IIINN FFIIINNAANNCCEE QUITY ESEARCH EEQUIITY RRESEARCH JERÓNIMO MARTINS, SGPS COMPANY REPORT FOOD RETAIL 06 JUNE 2011 STUDENT: MARGARIDA CARREIRA [email protected] Premium position in Poland leads to… Recommendation: HOLD Vs Previous Recommendation BUY …positive results in the Portuguese stock market. Price Target FY11 (PT): 13.98 € We’ve downgraded our PT from €14.31 to €13.98 driven by the Vs Previous Price Target 14.31 € riskier Portuguese profile and tougher macroeconomic Price (as of 3-Jun-11) 13.59 € outlook. Both our sales and EBITDA margins estimates (2011E- Reuters: JMT.LS, Bloomberg: JMT PL 2013E) for all domestic business units suffered cuts, reflecting the 52-week range (€) 6.84-13.70 measures imposed by the Troika’s agreement. As a result, our Market Cap (€m) 8,552.09 valuation for Portugal was reduced in 10.80%, meaning -2.31% in Outstanding Shares (m) 629.293 Source: Bloomberg our PT and our recommendation has changed to HOLD. Poland - Polish operations are the major source of JMT vs PSI20 70% value creation: We place our hope in Biedronka whose LfL sales 60% 50% and EBITDA margin grew 11.7% and 60bp in 1Q11. We expect 40% sales to grow at a CAGR of 10.8% in 2010 (local currency). 30% 20% Biedronka’s expansion plan will allow JMT to benefit from high 10% growth rates as long as the food retail market converges to 0% European standards and Biedronka enlarges its market share gap 2010 Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2011 Feb Mar Apr May Jun to its direct competitors. Polish operations account for 78.6% of our JMT’s value. Source: financeyahoo.com . Portugal - we expect the group to consolidate its (Values in € millions) 2010 2011E 2012E Revenues 8,691.0 9,528.0 10,197.1 positioning: Portuguese operations account for 21.4% of our EBITDA 653.1 672.27 719.67 enterprise value and we forecast sales and net income to increase EBITDA margin (%) 7.5% 7.1% 7.1% Net Profit 281.0 272.6 273.3 at a CAGR of 4.7% and 8.2% in the next 10 years, reflecting the EPS 0.446 0.433 0.434 deterioration in private consumption and the mature stage of the P/E 25.57 32.27 33.45 RoE (%) 24.8% 19.3% 17.0% food retail market. Nevertheless, the group was able to increase its EV/EBITDA 10.98 13.1 12.2 profits by 33.5% in 1Q2011 YoY thanks to Biedronka, Capital Expenditures 434.2 685.6 724.5 corresponding to €56.4Mn. Source:Company Company’s description reported Data and NOVA ER Team estimates Jerónimo Martins SGPS (JMT) is a Portuguese . Going Abroad is a Top priority: JMT plans to enter a new company operating in the food retail market in the distribution, industry and services areas, in geography in 2012. The most likely format is discount and mass Portugal and Poland. In Portugal, it operates under the brands Pingo Doce and Recheio while markets should remain key. in Poland it operates with its hard discount model, Biedronka. JMT is also involved in the food industry and in the services area. THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION AND SHALL BE USED EXCLUSIVELY FOR ACADEMIC PURPOSES (SEE DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS AT END OF DOCUMENT) See more information at WWW.NOVASBE.PT Page 1/39 JERÓNIMO MARTINS, SGPS COMPANY REPORT THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION AND SHALL BE USED EXCLUSIVELY FOR ACADEMIC PURPOSES (SEE DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS AT END OF DOCUMENT) Table of Contents Company overview ..................................................................................3 Company description..................................................................................... 3 . Business Units description ...................................................... 3 Shareholder structure .................................................................................... 4 Macroeconomic Analysis ........................................................................5 Portugal .......................................................................................................... 5 Poland ............................................................................................................ 6 Food Retail Sector Overview ...................................................................7 Food Retail Trends ................................................................................ 7 The Private Label’s Phenomenon........................................................... 9 The Portuguese Food Retail Market ..................................................... 10 The Polish Food Retail Market ............................................................. 12 Valuation .................................................................................................13 Operational Forecasts ...........................................................................14 Investment Forecasts: Capex ...............................................................20 Financing Forecasts: Debt and NWC....................................................21 Discounted Cash Flow model ...............................................................23 Sum of the Parts Approach ...................................................................24 Smooth Investment Scenario ................................................................25 Multiples Comparison ............................................................................26 “Apteka Na Zdrowie” .............................................................................27 Further Internationalization ...................................................................28 Financial Ratios .....................................................................................29 Financial Statements .............................................................................30 Appendix ................................................................................................31 Disclosures and Disclaimer ..................................................................39 PAGE 2/39 JERÓNIMO MARTINS, SGPS COMPANY REPORT THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION AND SHALL BE USED EXCLUSIVELY FOR ACADEMIC PURPOSES (SEE DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS AT END OF DOCUMENT) Company overview Company description Jerónimo Martins SGPS (JMT) is a Portuguese company in the food sector operating in the distribution, industry and services areas. Currently, the company Exhibit 1 – JMT Net sales Breakdown in conducts activities in Portugal (mainland and Madeira) and Poland. 2010 (%) Nevertheless, the group is searching for new markets to increase its international position. In Portugal, JMT maintains its recognition as the second largest portuguese food retail group, right after Sonae Distribuição. While in Portugal it operates with the brands Pingo Doce (retail) and Recheio (cash&carry), in Poland it stands with its hard discount model, Biedronka. JMT is also involved in the food industry over its joint-ventures with Gallo Worldwide and Unilever. In the Source: Company data service sector, it offers marketing services, food services and further represents international brands in Portugal. Brands like Olá, Hussel, Jeronymo, Chili’s, Ben & Jerry’s and Caterplus are also part of JMT’s portfolio. Exhibit 2 – PD’s Number of stores evolution . Business Units description With a total of 353 stores in Portugal (340 in Portugal mainland and 13 in Madeira), Pingo Doce (PD) is leader in the supermarket segment with 12.1% market share1 (see Appendix 1). Relying on Portugal’s largest outlet network, PD has achieved a sales growth of 9.9% in 2010. Among the main differentiation factors are its every day low prices strategy, its strong private label (60% of PD total sales), its always fresh perishables and finally its ready to eat Meal Solutions. Unlike other retailers like Lidl, PD intends to be a price follower Source: Company data instead of a price leader. In specific product categories (around 500 references), PD is forced to offer the same prices as Lidl. Since 2010, the group no longer Exhibit 3 – Recheio’s type of clients in owns Feira Nova being all of those stores converted into PD ones. In Madeira, 2010 sales have grown 7.9%, suffering losses due to the storms occurred on 2010, which affected two of JMT’s most representative stores (Anadia and Dolce Vita). Recheio is the leader in the food wholesale segment, with 39 cash&carry stores and 3 food service platforms, which posted a 4.6% sales growth in 2010. Mainly aiming at satisfying clients from the HoReCa (Hotels, Restaurants and Café’s) and traditional retail channels, its main differentiation efforts have been increasing perishables (14.9% of its total sales) and its private labels, Source: Company data MasterChef, Gourmês and Amanhecer (70% of its total sales). It presents a 1 According to Euromonitor International, PD became leader in 2008, surpassing Continente (8.2%) with a market share of 10.6%. PAGE 3/39 JERÓNIMO MARTINS, SGPS COMPANY REPORT THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT AN INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION AND SHALL BE USED EXCLUSIVELY FOR ACADEMIC PURPOSES (SEE DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS AT END OF DOCUMENT) market share of 38%. In Poland, JMT occupies a relevant position in the food retail market with its solid Source: Company data hard discount format Biedronka. It is the leader in its segment with a market Exhibit 4 – Biedronka’s number of stores share of 10.5% and has 1,649 stores. Its assortment is composed by 7% of non evolution food products, 56% exclusive brands and 37% corresponding to other brands. Due to the potential of the Polish market, Biedronka has grown rapidly in the last 5 years and constituted 55% of
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