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Biološki Sastav I Starenje Stanovništva Vukovarsko- Srijemske Županije 1961.-2011

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Biološki Sastav I Starenje Stanovništva Vukovarsko- Srijemske Županije 1961.-2011 HRVATSKI GEOGRAFSKI GLASNIK 78/1, 125−158 (2016.) UDK 911.3:314](497.544)“1961/2011“ Prethodno priopćenje 314.87(497.544)“1961/2011“ Preliminary communication Primljeno / Received 14-11-2014 / 2014-11-14 Tomislav Pejaković Prihvaćeno / Accepted 18-02-2016 / 2016-02-18 Biološki sastav i starenje stanovništva Vukovarsko- srijemske županije 1961.-2011. godine Demographic Composition and Ageing of the Population of Vukovar-Syrmia County 1961-2011 Rad se bavi proučavanjem promjene biološkog The paper deals with the study of changes in the com- sastava stanovništva Vukovarsko-srijemske županije position of the population of Vukovar-Syrmia County in u razdoblju od 1961. do 2011. godine. Podrobno se the period from 1961 to 2011. The changes in the com- analiziraju promjene sastava stanovništva prema dobi position of the population with regard to age and gender, i spolu, kao i starenje stanovništva. Obrađeni su ana- as well as the ageing of the population, are being thor- litički pokazatelji dobnog sastava stanovništva te je oughly analysed. One chapter deals with analytical indi- predočen stupanj ostarjelosti stanovništva do razine cators of the age composition of the population and gives naselja. Uspoređuje se Vukovarsko-srijemska županija a standardization of the age composition to the level of s Republikom Hrvatskom te se proučavaju razlike u settlements. Vukovar-Syrmia County is compared with biološkom sastavu gradskih i ostalih naselja u županiji. the Republic of Croatia, and changes in the demographic Razmatraju se i analiziraju uzroci, posljedice i značajke composition of urban and other settlements in the county promjena do kojih je došlo u ovom pedesetogodišnjem are analysed. Causes, consequences and characteristics of razdoblju. Zaključuje se da skori i brzi demografski the changes that have occurred in this fifty-year-period i opći društveno-gospodarski oporavak ovog dijela are reviewed and analysed. It is concluded that an early Hrvatske nije moguć bez povećanja rodnosti (koje bi and rapid demographic and general socio-economic re- trebalo potaknuti pomlađivanje dobnog sastava), do- covery of this part of Croatia is not possible without an seljavanja stanovništva, razvoja gospodarstva i zapo- increase in the birth rate (which should encourage reju- slenja mladih radi zaustavljanja njihova masovnijeg venation of the age composition), immigration of popu- iseljavanja. lation, the development of the economy and employment of young people in order to stop their massive emigration. Ključne riječi: biološki sastav stanovništva, depopulacija, Key words: biological composition of the population, de- dobno-spolna struktura, starenje stanovništva, Vukovar- population, age-gender structure, ageing of the popula- sko-srijemska županija tion, Vukovar-Syrmia County 125 HRVATSKI GEOGRAFSKI GLASNIK Uvod Introduction 78/1, 125−158 (2016.) Sastav stanovništva prema spolu i dobi naziva- The composition of the population with regard to mo biološkim budući je kod tzv. zatvorenog tipa age and gender is called biological composition since populacije izravno uvjetovan sastavnicama prirod- in the so-called “closed type” of population it is direct- noga kretanja stanovništva. Pri tome dobno-spol- ly conditioned by the components of natural popula- ni sastav stanovništva nije izvan utjecaja druš- tion fluctuations. In doing so, the age-gender compo- tveno-gospodarskih zbivanja već izuzetno važan sition of the population is not beyond the influence čimbenik demografskog i gospodarskog razvitka of socio-economic events, but forms a very significant svakog područja (Nejašmić, 2005). Iz njega proiz- factor of demographic and economic development of laze ključni strukturni dijelovi stanovništva, kako each area (Nejašmić, 2005). Key structural parts of za biološku reprodukciju (fertilni kontingent) population arise therefrom, both for biological repro- tako i za formiranje radnog kontingenta (Werthe- duction (fertility contingent) and for forming a work- imer-Baletić, 1999). Na razvoj dobno-spolne ing contingent (Wertheimer-Baletić, 1999). Various strukture stanovništva utječu brojni demografski demographic and non-demographic factors influence i nedemografski činitelji razvoja stanovništva, na- the development of the age-gender population struc- ročito visina nataliteta/fertiliteta, mortaliteta te ture, especially natality/fertility, mortality rate and mi- migracije. Stoga u dobno-spolnoj slici naseljenosti grations. Therefore, in the age-gender image of popu- analiziramo dosadašnje i predviđamo buduće pro- lation we analyse the past and foresee the future pro- cese u razvoju stanovništva (Friganović, 1990). cesses in population development (Friganović, 1990). Ukupna i prirodna depopulacija, starenje sta- The total and natural depopulation, population novništva uz stalno povećavanje udjela staroga i ageing, with constant increase of the share of elderly smanjivanje udjela mladoga stanovništva te pro- and decrease of the share of young population, as well storna populacijska polarizacija glavna su obilježja as spatial population polarisation, make up the main suvremene demografske slike Hrvatske (Werthe- properties of the contemporary demographic distri- imer-Baletić, 2004; 2007; Nejašmić, 2008). Sta- bution in Croatia (Wertheimer-Baletić, 2004; 2007; renje stanovništva danas je dominantan demore- Nejašmić, 2008). Population ageing is currently the produkcijski proces u Hrvatskoj, a podrazumijeva dominant demoreproduction process in Croatia, and povećanje udjela stanovništva dobne skupine 60 it implies the increase of the share of population aged i više ili 65 i više godina u ukupnoj populaciji 60 and older or 65 and older in the total population (Wertheimer-Baletić, 1999; 2004). O ostarjelosti (Wertheimer-Baletić, 1999; 2004). The aged popula- stanovništva Republike Hrvatske najbolje govore tion in the Republic of Croatia is best illustrated by slijedeći indikatori starenja stanovništva (prosječna the following population ageing indicators (average starost 41,7, indeks starenja 115, koeficijent staro- age is 41.7, ageing index 115, ageing coefficient 24.1).1 sti 24,1).1 Continuous emigration, negative change in popu- Kontinuirano iseljavanje, negativno prirodno lation on one side, and modernisation processes (ad- kretanje s jedne, a modernizacijski procesi (na- vancement in medicine) and life span extension on the predak medicine) i produženje trajanja života s other side are causing the population to age. The joint druge strane uzroci su starenja stanovništva. Za- action of all of the abovesaid processes affects further jedničko djelovanje svih navedenih procesa utječe expansion of the areas with extreme depopulation. na daljnje širenje prostora izrazite depopulacije. S Since depopulation and ageing have increased signifi- obzirom na to da su depopulacija i starenje sta- cantly in many Croatian settlements, a large number of novništva u mnogim naseljima Hrvatske uzeli ve- them is at the verge of extinction (Spevec, 2009). There liki zamah, velikom broju njih prijeti izumiranje are several such settlements in the Vukovar-Syrmia 1 Izvor: Popis stanovništva, kućanstava i stanova 2011., Kontingenti stanovništva po gradovima i općinama, www.dzs.hr 1 Source: Census of population, households and apartments 2011, Population contingents by towns and municipalities, www.dzs.hr 126 T. Pejaković (Spevec, 2009). U Vukovarsko-srijemskoj županiji County, and it should be stressed that according to the Biološki sastav nekoliko je takvih naselja pri čemu treba naglasi- data from the census of 2011, the situation concerning i starenje ageing and the age composition of the population in stanovništva ti da je stanje u ovoj županiji što se tiče procesa Vukovarsko- starenja i stupnja ostarjelosti stanovništva prema this county is significantly more favourable than in the srijemske županije podacima popisa stanovništva 2011. godine znat- Republic of Croatia and in most of other counties. The 1961.-2011. godine no povoljnije u odnosu na Republiku Hrvatsku i scope of this paper includes analysing the change in većinu ostalih županija. Predmet rada jest anali- the biological composition, the ageing process and the Demographic Composition za promjene biološkog sastava, procesa starenja i level of age structure in the Vukovar-Syrmia County and Ageing of stupnja ostarjelosti stanovništva Vukovarsko-sri- from 1961 to 2001. the Population of jemske županije od 1961. do 2001. Vukovar-Syrmia The purpose of the paper is to determine the ex- County 1961-2011 Cilj rada jest utvrditi u kojoj su mjeri naselja tent to which the settlements of the Vukovar-Syrmia Vukovarsko-srijemske županije zahvaćeni stare- County are affected by population ageing and how it njem stanovništva i kako će to utjecati na njihov influences their future demographic and socio-eco- budući demografski, ali i društveno-gospodarski nomic development. razvoj. The paper analyses data on two levels: the level of U radu se analiziraju podaci na razini nase- settlements, and the county level through six census lja i županije u cjelini kroz šest popisnih godina years (1961–2011). (1961.–2011.). Croatian literature has several papers on demo- U domaćoj literaturi prisutno je nekoliko ra- graphic changes, composition and structures of the dova o demografskim promjenama, sastavu i population in individual parts (former municipalities, strukturama stanovništva pojedinih dijelova (biv- towns and settlements) (Wertheimer-Baletić, 1993; še općine, gradovi i naselja) (Wertheimer-Baletić, 1994) but also in the Vukovar-Syrmia
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