FIFTH WORLD SKEPTICS CONGRESS • KENNEDY ASSASSINATION MYTHS • BIGFOOT FILM CONTROVERSY Skeptical Inquirer THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE AND REASON Volume 29, No. 1 • January / February 2005

CRITICAL THINKING ABOUT ENERGY: Is Centralized Generation Obsolete? .

I >•*•»«! Controversies in Polygraph Testing

* A Nobel Laureate £ —t-i Confronts Pseudoscience

Natural Medicine: - Pills or Needles?

- Published by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION off Claims off the Paranormal

AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-TRANSNATIONAL (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) • AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Paul Kurtz, Chairman; professor emeritus of philosophy, State University of New York at Buffalo Barry Karr, Executive Director Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow Lee Nisbet, Special Projects Director FELLOWS

James E. Alcock.* psychologist, York Univ., Toronto Henry Gordon, magician, columnist, Toronto James E. Oberg, science writer Jerry Andrus, magician and inventor, Albany, Saul Green, Ph.D.. biochemist president of ZOL Irmgard Oepen, professor of medicine (retired), Oregon Consultants, New York, NY Marburg, Germany Marcia Angell, M.D., former editor-in-chief, New Susan Haack, Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Health England Journal of Medicine and Sciences, prof, of philosophy, University Sciences Univ. Robert A. Baker, psychologist, Univ. of Kentucky of Miami Robert L Park, professor of physics, Univ. of Maryland Stephen Barrett. M.D., psychiatrist, author, C. E. M. Hansel, psychologist, Univ. of Wales John Paulos, mathematician. Temple Univ. consumer advocate, Allentown, Pa. David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy. Steven Pinker, cognitive scientist. Harvard Willem Betz, professor of medicine, Univ. of Columbia Univ. Massimo Polidoro, science writer, author, Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human Brussels executive director CICAP, Italy understanding and cognitive science. Barry Beyerstein,* biopsychologist, Simon Fraser Milton Rosenberg, psychologist, Univ. of Chicago Indiana Univ. Univ., Vancouver, B.C., Canada Wallace Sampson, M.D., clinical professor of Irving Biederman, psychologist, Univ. of Southern Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Physics medicine, Stanford Univ., editor, Scientific California and professor of history of science. Harvard Univ. Review of Alternative Medicine Susan Blackmore, Visiting Lecturer, Univ. of the Ray Hyman.* psychologist. Univ. of Oregon Amardeo Sarma, manager NEC Europe Ltd., Leon Jaroff. sciences editor emeritus. Time West of England, Bristol executive director, GWUP, Germany. Sergei Kapitza, former editor, Russian edition, Henri Broch, physicist. Univ. of Nice. France Evry Schatzman, former president. French Physics Jan Harold Brunvand, folklorist, professor Scientific American Association Philip J. Klass, aerospace writer, engineer emeritus of English. Univ. of Utah Eugenie Scott, physical anthropologist, executive Lawrence M. Krauss, author and professor of Vern Bullough, professor of history, California director, National Center for Science Education State Univ. at Northridge physics and astronomy. Case Western Reserve Robert Sheaffer, science writer Mario Bunge, philosopher, McGill University University Elie A. Shneour, biochemist, author, John R. Cole, anthropologist, editor. National Edwin C. Krupp, astronomer, director, Griffith director. Biosystems Research Institute, Center for Science Education Observatory La Jolla, Calif. Frederick Crews, literary and cultural critic, Paul Kurtz,* chairman, Center for Inquiry Dick Smith, film producer, publisher, Terrey Hills, professor emeritus of English, Univ of Lawrence Kusche. science writer N.S.W., Australia California, Berkeley Leon Lederman, emeritus director, Fermilab; Robert Steiner, magician, author, El Cerrito, Calif. F. H. C. Crick, biophysicist. Salk Inst, for Biological Nobel laureate in physics Victor J. Stenger, emeritus professor of physics Studies, La Jolla. Calif; Nobel laureate Scott Lilienfeld. psychologist, Emory Univ. and astronomy, Univ. of Hawaii; adjunct Richard Dawkins, zoologist, Oxford Univ. Lin Zixin, former editor. Science and Technology professor of philosophy, Univ. of Colorado Geoffrey Dean, technical editor, Perm, Australia Daily (China) Jill Cornell Tarter, astronomer, SETI Institute, Daniel C. Dennett, University Professor and Austin Jere Lipps, Museum of Paleontology, Univ. of Mountain View, Calif. California, Berkeley B. Fletcher Professor of Philosophy, Director of Carol Tavris, psychologist and author, Los Angeles, Calif. Elizabeth Loftus, professor of psychology. Univ. of the Center for Cognitive Studies at Tufts Univ. David Thomas, physicist and mathematician. Ann Druyan, writer and producer, Ithaca, New York California. Irvine Peralta. New Mexico Cornells de Jager, professor of astrophysics, Univ. Paul MacCready, scientist/engineer, Stephen Toulmin, professor of philosophy, Univ. of of Utrecht, the Netherlands AeroVironment, Inc., Monrovia, Calif. Southern California Paul Edwards, philosopher, editor, Encyclopedia John Maddox, editor emeritus of Nature Neil deGrasse Tyson, astrophysicist and director, of Philosophy David Marks, psychologist City University, London. Hayden Planetarium, New York City Kenneth Feder, professor of anthropology. Mario Mendez-Acosta, journalist and Marilyn vos Savant Parade magazine Central Connecticut State Univ. science writer, Mexico City, Mexico contributing editor Antony Flew, philosopher, Reading Univ., U.K. Marvin Minsky, professor of media arts and Steven Weinberg, professor of physics and Andrew Fraknoi, astronomer, Foothill College, Los sciences, M.I.T. astronomy. Univ. of Texas at Austin; Altos Hills, Calif. David Morrison, space scientist, NASA Ames Nobel laureate Kendrick Frazier. science writer, editor, SKEPTKAI Research Center E.O. Wilson. University Professor Emeritus, INQUIRE* Richard A. Muller, professor of physics. Univ. of Harvard University Yves Galifret, vice-president. Affiliated Calif., Berkeley Richard Wiseman, psychologist University of Organizations; France H. Narasimhaiah, physicist, president Bangalore Hertfordshire Martin Gardner, author, critic Science Forum. India Marvin Zelen, statistician, Harvard Univ. Murray Gell-Mann, professor of physics, Santa Fe Joe Nickell,' senior research fellow, CSICOP Institute; Nobel laureate Lee Nisbet* philosopher, Medaille College * Member, CSICOP Executive Council Thomas Gilovich, psychologist Cornell Univ. Bill Nye. science educator and television host Nye Labs (Affiliations given for identification only.)

Visit the CSICOP Web site at www.csicop.org

The SKEPTICAL INQUIRE* (ISSN 0194-6730) is published bimonthly by the Committee for the page 64 of the November • I Wmbci 2004 issue. Or you may send a lax request to the editor. Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal. 1310 Sweet Home Rd Amherst. NY Articles, reports, reviews, and letters published in the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER represent the 14228. Printed in U.S.A. Periodicals postage paid at Buffalo. N V. and at additional mailing of­ views and work of individual authors. Their publication does not necessarily constitute an en­ fices. Subscription prices: one year (six issues). $35; two years. S60: three years. $84: single is­ dorsement by CSICOP or its members unless so stated. sue. $4.95. Canadian and foreign orders: Pavment in U.S. funds drawn on a U.S. bank must ac­ Copyright ©2005 by the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Par­ company orders; please add USS10 per vcar for shipping. Canadian and foreign customers arc anormal. All rights reserved- The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER is available on I6ram microfilm, encouraged to use Visa or MasterCard. 35mm microfilm, and 105mm microfiche from University Mkrofilms International and is Inquiries from the media and the public about the work of the Committee should be made indexed in the Reader's Guide to Periodical Literature. to Paul Kurtz. Chairman. CSICOP. Box 703. Amherst. NY 14226-0703. Tel.: 716-636-1425- Subscriptions and changes of address should be addressed to: SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Box 703. Am­ Fax:716-636-1733. herst. NY 142264)703. Or call toll-free 1-800-634-1610 (outside U.S. call 71 6-636-1425). Old ad­ Manuscripts, letters, books for review, and editorial inquiries should be addressed to Kendrick dress as well as new are necessary for change of subscriber's address, with six weeks advance notice. Frazier. Editor. SKEPTICAL INQUIRES. 944 Deer Drive NE. Albuquerque. NM 87122. Fax 505- SKEPTICAL INQUIRER subscribers may not speak on behalf of CSICOP or the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. 828-2080. Before submitting any manuscript, please consult our Guide for Authors for format and Postmaster Send changes of address to SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. Box 703. Amherst. NY references requirements. It is on our Web site at www.csscDp.org/si/guidc*for-auihofs.himI and on 14226-0*03. Skeptical Inquirer COLUMNS EDtTOR'S NOTE January/February 2005 • VOL 29, NO. 1 Critical Inquiry, and Thinking About Galileo 4 NEWS AND COMMENT

ARTICLES In the Land of Galileo, Fifth World Skeptics Congress Solves Mysteries, Champions Scientific Outlook / Alien-Abduction Guru 25 Critical Thinking About Energy Mack Killed in Accident / Betty Hill, First 'Alien Abductee,' Dies / Critics Ravage 'Hoax' New Age Film / Paranormal Expo Cancelled The Case for Decentralized Generation Under Cloud / Raelian Update: Sex, Pseudoscience, and Sacrilege / of Electricity Metabolife Founder Michael Ellis Charged with Lying to FDA / Psychics (Don't) Explain Missing September 11 5 Highly centralized generation of electrical power is a paradigm that has outlived its usefulness. INVESTIGATIVE FILES Decentralized generation could save $5 trillion in Mystery Painting: The Shadow of the Cross' capital investment, reduce power costs by 40 percent, JOE NICKELL 15 reduce vulnerabilities, and cut greenhouse gas emissions in half. PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS THOMAS R. CASTEN and Hurricane Osama? BRENNAN DOWNES ROBERT SHEAFFER 17

THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE 34 Exploring Controversies in the Art Piltdown and How Science Really Works and Science of Polygraph Testing MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI 20

Polygraph testing has always been controversial, with a NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD wide gulf separating practitioners from scientists with Facts and Fiction in the Kennedy Assassination relevant expertise. Myths about its alleged objectivity and infallibility stem from a failure to recognize that MASSIMO POLIDORO 22 the polygraph simply records physiological responses and that the validity with which deception can be SCIENCE BEST SELLERS 53 diagnosed depends on the nature of the examination and its social context. NEW BOOKS 54 FORUM JOHN RUSCIO It's a Bird, It's a Plane, It's ... an Angel? DAVE BROOKS 55 40 A Nobel Laureate Confronts Stupid Things Pseudoscience RALPH ESTLING 56

A distinguished Russian physicist (co-winner FOLLOW-UP of the 2003 Nobel Prize in Physics) battles the Some Reasons for Caution about the Bigfoot Film Expose pseudoscience and charlatanism that he feels is MICHAEL DENNETT 58 duping his country's population. I. Demagogues against Scientific Expertise LETTERS TO THE EDITOR 60

43 II. Brave Thoughts Are Still Not the Truth BOOK REVIEWS VITALY L. GINZBURG Einstein's Cosmos: How Albert Einstein's Vision Transformed Our Understanding of Space and Time 45 Natural Medicine: Will That Be a By Michio Kaku Pill or a Needle? GREG MARTINEZ 49

Many alternative practitioners promise to reveal Piltdown Man: The Secret Life of Charles Dawson and the "secrets your doctor never told you. " One secret is World's Greatest Archaeological Hoax never mentioned: why alternative remedies are By Miles Russell ingested rather than injected Though most practitioners of alternative medicine are silent on JOHN WHITTAKER 50 this question, this "missing information, " as Ghost Ship: The Mysterious True Story of the Mary Celeste previously described by Kardes and Sanbonmatsu, and her Missing Crew is crucial for evaluating the promised cure. By Brian Hicks

WILLIAM H. BAARSCHER5 TERENCE M. HINES 52 EDITOR'S NOTE Skeptical Inquirer THI MAGAZINE f0• SCIENCE AND IIASOH

EDITOR Kendrick Frazier Critical Inquiry, and Thinking About Galileo EDITORIAL BOARD James E. Alcock Barry Beyerstein In an editorial in our January/February 2004 issue, I spoke of our intention in the Thomas Casten Martin Gardner SKEPTICAL INQUIRER "to examine more issues of broad social import that involve Ray Hyman science and technology, not duplicating the efforts of other publications but wher­ Philip J. Klass Paul Kurtz ever we see an opportunity for science, reason, and critical inquiry to play a useful Joe Nickell Lee Nisbet role." Amardeo Sarma The first two articles in this issue are in that vein. The first, on the merits of Bela Scheiber decentralized vs. centralized generation of electrical energy, is indeed a totally new CONSULTING EDITORS Robert A. Baker topic for us. The second, a balanced and informed look at polygraph testing, is one Susan J. Blackmore John R. Cole we have dealt with regularly, with at least five earlier articles and news pieces from Kenneth L. Feder 1990-2003. C. E. M. Hansel E. C Krupp And that fact makes another point: We have never limited ourselves to investi­ Scon O. Lilienfeld David F. Marks gations of paranormal or pseudoscientific claims. In the early 1990s I made a list Eugenie Scott of past SI articles that fell into neither of these categories. It covered an entire page. Richard Wiseman A similar list today would be much longer. But what all have in common is apply­ CONTRIBUTING EDITORS Chris Mooney ing critical inquiry to science-related claims and issues of popular appeal or public James E. Oberg Robert Sheaffer importance. David E. Thomas Tom Casten, lead author of our cover article, is an energy entrepreneur who MANAGING EDITOR brings a background in economics and deep interests in science, technology, and Benjamin Radford ART DIRECTOR critical thinking (he has long been associated with CSICOP) to his examination of Lisa A. Hutter the relative efficiencies of centralized vs. decentralized generation of power. I think PRODUCTION you will find the revelations by him and colleague Brennan Downes surprising. Christopher Fix Paul Loynes Many first-rate scientists are often by necessity so narrowly focused on their EDITORIAL ASSISTANT work that they have little time or inclination to get involved in wider issues. Others David Park Musella CARTOONIST somehow manage to commit themselves to science education, writing for the pub­ Rob Pudim lic, bringing scientific insights to public policy debates, and defending science WEB PAGE DESIGN Patrick Fitzgerald, Designer against promulgators of pseudoscience. Physicist and 2003 Nobel Prize recipient Amanda Chesworth Vitaly L. Ginzburg is clearly one of the latter. We present two articles by him in Kevin Christopher Rob Beeston this issue, both confronting specifics of pseudoscience and showing how it differs from real science. PUBLISHER'S REPRESENTATIVE Barry Karr CORPORATE COUNSEL Brenton N VerPloeg The evening-long tribute to Galileo at the Fifth World Skeptics Congress near BUSINESS MANAGER Padua, Italy (see the ensuing pages), was a moving experience. Knowledgeably Sandra Lesniak FISCAL OFFICER hosted by television journalist and science author Piero Angelo, pan of it featured Paul Paulin actors playing Galileo and the three figures in his two key "Dialogues." Padua and DEVELOPMENT OFFICERS Richard Hull Florence were the cradle of the Italian renaissance, widi creative new thinking and James Kimberly discoveries in an, architecture, medicine, and science. It was equally moving later Sherry Rook CHIEF DATA OFFICER (in Venice), to see wooden models of Leonardos inventions, climb up to Michael Cione Brunelleschi s dome in Florence, and visit the science history museum in Florence STAFF Darlene Banks where many of Galileo's scientific instruments are displayed. Returning home, I Patricia Beauchamp reread J. Bronowski's memorable chapter in The Ascent of Man on Galileo's trial. A Cheryl Catania Matthew Cravatta concluding passage notes one effect of this tenible wielding of ideology and power Jennifer Miller Anthony Santa Lucia against science and open inquiry: "The effect of die trial and of the imprisonment John Sullivan was to put a total stop to die scientific tradition in the Mediterranean. From now Vance Vigrass on the Scientific Revolution moved to Northern Europe." Can such a shift still PUBUC RELATIONS DIRECTOR Kevin Christopher happen today, when many powerful ideological interests are so distrustful of at EDUCATIONAL DIRECTOR least certain aspects of science? It's a sobering thought. Amanda Chesworth INQUIRY MEDIA PRODUCTIONS Thomas Flynn DIRECTOR OF UBRARIES Timothy S. Binga

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4 January/February 200S SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

In the Land of Galileo, Fifth World Skeptics Congress Solves Mysteries, Champions Scientific Outlook

KENDRICK FRAZIER Galileo himself was the subject of an emphasis to a "second principle" of the entire evening of special events the first movement: "to explicate and defend sci­ The legacy of Galileo shone like a bril­ night of the conference, while a slightly ence and reason and the scientific out­ liant star throughout the Fifth World more recent hero of skepticism, the con­ look. . . . We are interested in cultivating Skeptics Congress, Oct. 8-10, 2004, juror and investigator James Randi, was public appreciation of science." and appropriately so, for it was held in feted the second night (see side stories). "This is positive," he said "—carrying Abano Terme, Italy, just outside of Randi also gave a talk earlier that day on to the general public our appreciation of Padua (Padova), where Galileo taught "difficult, innocent, and impossible this powerful invention, the discovery of from 1592 until 1610, wrote The Starry applicants" for his $1 million challenge Messenger, and discovered the moons to psychic claimants. of Jupiter. CICAP Chairman Steno Ferluga, Other revolutionary figures in the professor of astrophysics at the Uni­ history of science likewise had Padua versity of Trieste, opened the conference connections. Among them were Nico- with a basic statement of the meeting. laus Copernicus, who studied there, and CICAP, CSICOP, and the skeptical Andreas Vesalius, who took his medical movement represent a "new thing," he degree there before publishing his revela­ said. "Finally there exists a network of tions about human anatomy in 1543. people to find answers, offer corrections, That was the same year that Copernicus and provide accurate information on published, on his deathbed, On the popular mysteries." Revolution of the Heavenly Spheres, the This "light of reason" can help con­ CICAP's Massimo Polidoro moderates a World book that cast aside the notion of an fine paranormal beliefs to those who Skeptics Congress session. Earth-centered universe. Thus began the want to believe, instead of to all those conflict between religious belief and sci­ previously innocently confused by mis­ entific discovery diat led to Galileo's epic information about claims once ignored tribulations with the Catholic church by scientists. "We skeptics don't deny and that echoes down through the ages mysterious events," he said. "We come to this day. here to solve them." The conference theme was "Solving In his opening remarks, CSICOP Mysteries." Throughout, speakers Chairman Paul Kurtz, professor emeritus touted the unique abilities of the meth­ of philosophy at SUNY-Buffalo, noted ods of scientific and skeptical inquiry in that he had come to Italy three times finding solutions to mysteries that oth­ beginning twenty years ago to encourage erwise remain the domain of opinion Italian scientists and skeptics to organize Key World Skeptics Congress figures, from left. and speculation. Massimo Polidoro, co-chairman Paul Kurtz. a group. He said he was pleased with the Piero Angela, James Randi, and co-chairman The three-day conference, which had a subsequent work of that group, which Steno Ferluga. sold-out attendance of nearly 500 (the has high visibility in capacity of the comfortable modern con­ Italy, and the grand ference center's theater, surrounded by conference it had hotels and restaurants), was cosponsored organized. The mod­ by the Committee for the Scientific ern skeptical move­ Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal ment has provided (CSICOP) and its Italian counterpart "a critical scientific group, CICAP (pronounced "chee-cap"). examination" of pop­ CICAP numbers among its members ular claims and "a some of Italy's leading scientists, scholars, whole new litera­ and investigators, many of whom were in ture," Kurtz said. "Investigating Historical Mysteries" session panelists, from left. Joe Nickell, evidence as conference participants. But he gave equal Mariano Tomatis. Luigi Garlaschelli. and James Randi.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 5 NEWS AND COMMENT truth about nature through experimen­ native medicine can be hazardous to said this is an example of how skeptics tal science." your health (Silvio Garattini, Mario can do research that involves the public. So in this mission, Kurtz said, "the Negri Institute, Milan). Three or four As for Carolyn Watts's call for more skeptical movement has moved on . .. leading figures in these fields spoke in interactions between skeptics and para­ to other equally important things." each session, followed by a lively ques­ psychologists, Wiseman agreed, to a Kurtz spoke admiringly of Galileo. tion period. point. "Should we collaborate if the "In one sense," he said, "Galileo is a Only a few highlights can be men­ research is about genuine open inquiry? symbol of skeptical inquiry. He ques­ tioned here, some brief examples. CICAP Yes," he said. Skeptical psychologists can tioned authority. He rejected author­ plans to eventually publish a book based and have helped mightily with a number ity—Aristotle, the Church. on the conference proceedings. of parapsychology experiments, he said, "Galileo is die great martyr to die The opening session, "Parapsy­ tightening up controls and finding small skeptical cause," Kurtz said. He rejected chology and Skeptics: Is Dialogue errors, which can easily creep in. But too occult explanations, and he championed a Possible?" had a bittersweet quality many parapsychological researchers have new method involving experimentation, because the scheduled leadoff speaker, another aim altogether, he said. "There hypotheses, theories, and mathematics. Robert L. Morris, professor of parapsy­ are people who are certain of the "Galileo was a heroic figure, a great chology at the University of Edinburgh answers," he said. "They are engaged in skeptic," said Kurtz. "He was not a and highly respected by both skeptics a process of persuasion, not inquiry, and dogmatic skeptic, but thought that and parapsychologists, had died unex­ they have an agenda. CSICOP looks at there were reliable methods for achiev­ pectedly in August. He was only sixty. these people very carefully. Should we ing knowledge." Carolyn Watt, a senior research fellow collaborate with them? No." And one more point from Kurtz: at Edinburgh's Koestler Parapsychology James Alcock (York University, "Science and skepticism go hand Unit, which Morris had established and Toronto) described why parapsychology, in hand. Skepticism is a great tool of headed, gave a talk in his stead, dedi­ despite its long history of research, some science." cated to him. She spoke on "productive of it involving eminent scientists, still has Thus began three sparkling days of and unproductive interactions" between gained no status as a science and is in fact presentations, discussions, questions, parapsychologists and skeptics, urging ignored by most scientists. There is no entertainment (including a lunchtime more of the former and less of the latter. unambiguous definition of a psi phenom­ first-ever performance of "skeptical" In the productive category are "direct, enon, no strongly replicated effect, no arias from famous operas), and special personal, involvement and collabora­ theory offered, no consistency with other events and demonstrations. tions," much like Hyman has done in areas of science, and no progressive accu­ It was a truly international conference, the past with Charles Honorton or that mulation of knowledge. "Despite a long with attendees from twenty countries. Richard Wiseman has carried out in the history, parapsychology does not have a Speakers heralded from Argentina, U.K. Unproductive interactions include single acknowledged 'fact,'" said Alcock. Belgium, Canada, China, Egypt, Ger­ debates at a distance, which become Furthermore, he said that collabora­ many, Italy, France, Russia, Spain, die increasingly polemical, and unsupported tion with parapsychologists is difficult. United Kingdom, and the United States. and sweeping statements, including "Parapsychologists can't propose what The conference language was English, unscientific rhetoric and misrepresenting would disconfirm psi," he lamented. "To with simultaneous translation into Italian, opponents' views. diem, finding nothing doesn't count.... although occasionally that was reversed. Richard Wiseman (University of We can help by being respectful and Formal conference sessions dealt Hertfordshire), who has high visibility constructive and by being hard-nosed with parapsychology (moderated by Ray in the U.K. as a psychologist who and critical. But the problem is that the Hyman, University of Oregon); hoaxes, involves parapsychologists, the media, failure to find supporting evidence will fakes, and myths (Lorenzo Montali, and the public in his investigations, not dampen parapsychological zeal." University of Milan); investigating his­ spoke of some of his recent experiments, The session on investigating historical torical myths (Massimo Polidoro, including research with a medium mysteries featured several interesting case University of Milan—his column in this described recently in The Times (U.K.) studies. CSICOP's senior research fellow issue on fact and fiction about the and his "Mind Machine," a multimedia and SI "Investigative Files" columnist Joe Kennedy assassination is based on his interactive kiosk that invites the public Nickell reported on his investigations presentation); magic and the psychology to participate in an extrasensory percep­ into such cases as the Flatwood Monster, of deception (Sergio Delia Sala, tion experiment. In 139,000 trials with the Nazca lines, and the Shroud of Turin. University of Edinburgh); die future of 28,856 people, he said, the hits Researcher Mariano Tomatis (Turin, skepticism and a world skeptics update amounted to 49.90 percent —"chance," Italy) described his investigations into the (Barry Karr, CSICOP); and how alter­ he reported. "No evidence of ESP." He "Da Vinci code" story, and Luigi

6 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

Garlaschelii (University of Pavia) About the Lost Continent." He told of would leave open the possibility that described his literally hands-on investiga­ his experiences a few years ago with a Atlantis was real. (For critiques of both tions into the "real sword in the stone" producer of an ABC television docu­ the ABC show and the Atlantis myth, (in Italy). Randi's previously mentioned mentary about Atlantis. The producer see SI, January/February 2002.) talk followed. We hope to have articles told Feder he was looking for an archae­ One of the highlights for many based on several of these presentations in ologist who was pro-Atlantis. Feder told members of the audience was moving future issues. him there were none, because Atlantis talks by two speakers from Egypt, In the "Hoaxes, Fakes, and Myths" didn't exist. When Feder asked why diey Mourad Whaba (professor emeritus of session, archaeologist Kenneth Feder made rJiat request, the producer pointed philosophy at the University of Ain (Central Connecticut State University) out that the ABC network was owned Shams in Cairo and president of the gave a revealing report on media dynam­ by the Disney company, which was Afro-Asian Philosophy Association) and ics intriguingly and accurately titled about to launch its animated film about Mona Abousenna, a professor at the "Atlantis in Fantasyland: Making a Atlantis and implied that they expected same university. Abousenna described Mickey Mouse Television Documentary ABC to make a documentary that the extraordinary challenges and perils

The World of Galileo Galilei and the pendulum as well as the works for is false and contrary to the Sacred and Divine which he was even better known, "He was scriptures, that the Sun is the center of the a Renaissance man par excellence" she worid and does not move from east to west said. He had enormous curiosity, she said, and that the Earth moves and is not the cen­ "He was a great writer, and he could sing, ter of the worid." Galileo is shown the paint, and write poetry." Inquisition's instruments of torture and men She was soon joined on the stage by her seen reading his hand-written confession and husband. Andrea Frova, professor of recantation "abjuring" any such beliefs. "I physics at the University of Rome who curse and detest the said errors and heresies" holds the same chair once held by Enrico and will "never again say nor assert in speak­ Fermi. He spoke in more detail about ing or writing such things," he was required Galileo's work, referring to the astonishing to state. variety of his inquiries. He even noted that It was an emotional end to the Galileo occasionally was wrong. "Galileo evening. CSICOP's Paul Kurtz was visibly studied so many things he couldn't always moved. He told me CICAP should be be right. He believed planetary orbits were praised for presenting the Galileo tribute circles, and he made a wrong guess about because the Galileo affair is still a sensitive As befitted a conference outside Padua, the the rides. He thought they were due to issue in Italy. And he again mentioned first evening featured a nearly three-hour Earth's rotation. This shows diat everyone Galileo's great courage. "The trial of special event, "The World of Galileo can make mistakes." Galileo was a terrible thing. It ruined Galilei." It was hosted by Piero Angela, a Angela next introduced Alessandro him." noted Rome-based television journalist in Bettini, professor of physics at the Italy, author of books on science and skep­ University of Padua, who had brought a —K.F. ticism, and one of the key people responsi­ large wooden inclined plane plus measur­ ble for the rounding of CI CAP Paul Kurtz ing instruments like diosc Galileo had used calb him "the Walter Cronkite of Italy," in his experiments demonstrating that and Angela's knowledgeable on-stage inter­ objects fell at the same velocity regardless of views and hosted demonstrations with theit weight. Bettini demonstrated dicir leading Galileo scholars and even an actor use and said. "The scientific method was playing Galileo showed why. the major contribution of Galileo." Angela first interviewed Maria Mariapiera These discussions were interspersed with Marenzana, a professor of literature in Rome dips from a linle-known Italian motion pic­ and a biographer of Galileo, about Galileos ture about Galileo's life and his conflict with life and work. Oxford University Press will church authorities, a movie Angela said was publish her book in English in 2005. not well known even in Italy. It ended with Not only was Galileo a great man of the trial of Galileo. The Holy Office found science with notable discoveries on the him "vehemently suspected of heresy" for principle of inertia, the fall of free bodies. Piero Angela interviews Galileo biographer "having held and believed the doctrine which Maria Manapiera Mareruana.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 7 NEWS AND COMMENT of even speaking about skeptical convincing positive data for nine herbal ing college of herbalism in North inquiry and rationalism in an Islamic remedies (especially St. John's Wort, for America—exhibits every characteristic country like Egypt. Many seemed mild to moderate depression), but not of pseudoscience in [CSICOP Fellow moved by her courage and determina­ thousands [as frequently claimed]." and McGill University philosophy pro­ tion. In answer to a question, Professor On acupuncture: "There is limited fessor] Mario Bunge's list" (Bunge, Whaba said, "My students like me, but evidence that acupuncture is better than "What Is Pseudoscience?" SKEPTICAL they don't like my ideas." At the same no treatment at all. There is inconclusive INQUIRER, Fall 1984). session was Prof. Edward Kruglyakov of evidence that acupuncture is better than Riccardo Lucio (University of Flor­ the Russian Academy of Sciences, who a placebo." ence): "Homeopathy is useful. ... It is reported on efforts by Russian scientists On spiritual healing: "The majority useful to the industry, to the sellers, and to criticize anti-science, and Li Sheng of rigorous trials show no effect beyond to the homeopaths. But it is highly Xian, a representative of a five-member placebo." questionable if it is of use to patients." Chinese delegation. Ernst's conclusion: "High quality re­ Wallace Sampson (professor of med­ The conference concluded with a search is scarce. Bias is rife. For some icine, Stanford, and editor of the lively session of critical examinations of CAM [Complementary and Alternative Scientific Review of Alternative Medicine) evidence about alternative medicine. A Medicine] treatments the risk/benefit ratio gave a blunt assessment of what he calls few excerpts: is positive. But for most, we don't know." "the political takeover in the U.S." by Edzard Ernst (Professor of Comple­ Barry Beyerstein (Simon Fraser alternative medicine. mentary and Alternative Medicine, University, Vancouver, British Colum­ "Never in the history of medicine has Universities of Exeter and Plymouth, bia): "The curriculum of the Dominion there been anything like this before," he U.K.) On herbal remedies: "We have Herbal College in Vancouver—the lead- said. "It is an organized invasion of pseudoscience into the scientific edifice of medicine. It is pervasive, surreptitious, Randi: That's Amazing and purposeful. It is not a conspiracy; it is simply the way people act in groups." The special event the second night was How do they do it? By using the "Randi: That's Amazing," billed as "A "language of distortion" (alternative 'Magical' Evening wiuS James Randi." medicine instead of quackery or pseudo- For those who've seen Randi's lec­ science) and by demeaning science (post­ tures many times, this was different. modernism and relativism), he said. It was very interesting because its Proponents' invention of language is cal­ essence was an extended conversation between Randi and CICAP's culated to produce a positive response. Massimo Polidoro (investigator, He said they have become astute in what author, and Si's "Notes on a Strange he called "info-ganda," the combination World" columnist who once studied of information and propaganda. They

with Randi). Both were seated com­ Massimo Polidoro and James Randi ham it up have been effective in manipulating fortably on the stage; Polidoro would after the evening special tribute to Randi. opinion in nonprofit foundations, the ask questions about Randi's life and news media, books, and even the med­ career, and Randi, now seventy-six but still going strong, answered. ical press, which "has a bias against pub­ The questions were cued to some "amazing" old film clips shown of Randi in lishing negative articles." They have action, some going back to when he was only a teenager doing conjuring tricks in found abundant sources of funding Toronto, and others long before he became the white-bearded scourge of psychics bodi from government (especially in the he is today. Many showed his career as an escape artist, including film of him U.S., through the support of key con­ escaping from a straitjacket while being suspended upside down over Niagara Falls in winter and another of him encased in a huge block of ice with those outside gressional leaders) and from spiritual/ frantically trying to chip him out. religious organizations. He sees the Ray Hyman, Richard Wiseman, and Joe Nickell came on stage and performed problem getting worse, not better. demonstrations and conjuring tricks. Silvio Garattini, professor of phar­ This, of course, then led in to discussion of Randi's later, still-active career as a macology and director of the Mario debunker of magicians who pretend to be psychic such as Uri Geller. Randi even Negri Institute in Milan, summed up revealed to the audience exactly how he did two Geller-type tricks when forced into the session. "I wonder if by using gen­ doing so on live radio and television shows with little or no time to prepare. tler terms like alternative medicine and It truly was a "magical" evening.—K.F. complementary medicine, we are dis­ serving science," he said. "'Quackery'

8 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT and 'fakery'" is what we are talking Lawrence ("Lawrence of Arabia"), A what he is remembered for, and not for about. "We must use what has proved Prince of Our Disorder, won him a being the guy who believed in people's to be effective." Pulitzer Prize in 1977. stories of alien abductions." And he spoke of the frustrating illogic In 1994 Mack shocked colleagues —JoeNickell of homeopathy. Its remedies are "all the and others with his book Abductions: same and contain nothing. How can you Human Encounters with Aliens. He had Joe Nickell is CSlCOP's Senior Research test mat?" The burden of proof is on die come to believe that many of his Fellow. homeopathic community to provide patients had indeed had extraterrestrial proof diat its remedies are efficacious, he encounters which they "remembered" under hypnosis. said. "But they are not willing." Betty Hill, First 'Alien In his concluding remarks, Paul Kurtz Mack was invited to speak at a CSI- called the conference "inspiring." He COP conference in Seatde, Washington, Abductee/ Dies lamented the escape from reason in the in 1994. Psychologist Robert A. Baker Eunice "Betty" Hill—whose claimed 1961 health fields, among others. "Not believ­ began the session on alien abductions by encounter widi extraterrestrials spawned ing in diings without evidence is still a observing that virtually all such claims the alien-abduction mania—died October radical thesis," he said. "We are still represented a psychological phenome­ 19,2004, at the age of eighty-five. She suc­ attempting to hold the torch of scientific non attributable to the discredited pro­ cumbed to lung cancer at her Portsmouth, cedure of hypnotic regression. "Once reason and inquiry." He said there are still New Hampshire, home (just twenty days you turn on the imagination," he said, many "committed to the Enlightenment" after the accidental death of abduction "all diings are possible." but the "danger that we will move away guru Dr. John E. Mack). from the scientific outlook is very Baker also observed that "waking real.... We have a set of ideals. These dreams" (which occur in the twilight ideals are very important, and we need to between being fully awake and fully keep the torch of reason lit." sleep) can yield apparitions of extra­ terrestrials as well as produce sensations Kendrick Frazier is Editor of the of floating, falling, or being rendered SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. His book People of immobile—effects often associated widi Chaco: A Canyon and Its Culture, on alleged alien abductions. the archaeology of Chaco Canyon, New Mack, however, dismissed such Mexico, will be published in an updated attempts to find conventional psycho­ and expanded edition by WW Norton, logical explanations for abduction New York, in February 2005- experiences, insisting that the cases had "a quality of their own." In addi­ tion to defending his position, he asserted that "There is a world of other Alien-Abduction Guru dimensions, of other realities that can Mack Killed in Accident cross over into our own world." He asked his skeptical audience, "Are we Betty Hill at a convention of the Mutual UFO Network in 2002 in Rochester, N.Y. (Photo by John E. Mack—whose position as a seeking to be rhe arbiters of reality?" In Joe Nickell) Harvard psychiatrist seemed to add response, CSICOP Chairman Paul legitimacy to his endorsement of alien Kurtz, who moderated the session, In 1961, UFO and space-travel buff abduction claims—was killed acciden­ briefly noted that skeptics were merely Betty Hill and her husband Barney tally in London on September 27, 2004. applying the scientific method to para­ (d. 1969) were driving in the White He had been attending the T.E. normal claims. Mountains when they encountered a Lawrence Society Symposium in Mack's book led the Harvard UFO piloted by alien beings. They Oxford. On returning to die London Medical School to consider censuring reported two hours of missing time as home where he was staying, he stepped him, but after a fourteen-month investi­ well, and—after suffering stress— into a crosswalk and was hit by a car dri­ gation the school declined on the underwent hypnosis some two and a ven by an allegedly intoxicated driver. grounds of "academic freedom." After half years later. During the sessions He was apparently killed instantly. Mack's death, the attorney who repre­ they "remembered" being examined by Mack (b. Oct. 4, 1929) received his sented him during the investigation, small, grey, large-headed humanoids. medical degree, cum laude, from Roderick MacLeish, stated: "He was so Their purported abduction was the Harvard in 1955. His biography of T.E. caring to his patients, and I hope that is subject of a 1966 book and a 1975

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/Ftb-uary 2005 9 REACH OUT TO A NEW FUTURE! HEADQUARTERS EXPANSION AMHERST, N.Y.

The Center for Inquiry - Transnational materials keep coming. There's an office announces a major 13,600 square foot or workstation everywhere we can put expansion at its Amherst, New York, head­ one, yet program and staffing needs con­ quarters. Slated for completion during tinue to grow. Our existing conference and 2005, the $2.54 million expansion will more seminar space, opened in 1995, is often than double conference and seminar overwhelmed by larger and more complex capacity, add ten urgently-needed new events. offices, and enlarge the Center's world- The headquarters expansion is one class libraries. This capital project will The new addition will be erected just east of the present focus of our $26.26 million New Future building, constructed in 1995 relieve serious overcrowding and capac­ Fund capital campaign. Your gift to the ity problems, supporting projected pro­ New Future Fund today will help to make gram growth of the Center and its affiliate our desperately-needed headquarters organizations, including the Committee for expansion a reality. We seek gifts of cash, the Scientific Investigation of Claims of publicly-traded securities, paid-up insur­ the Paranormal, for years to come. ance policies, and other assets. Attractive We are bursting at the seams, and can­ incentive and naming opportunities are not continue program growth without offered in acknowledgment of larger gifts. expanding our headquarters. The shelf All gifts are fully tax-deductible as pro­ space of our skeptical and freethought vided by law. Please join us and declare library—the finest in the world—is full. Yet your support. Write, call, email, or send the bound-in postcard today! donated books, magazines, and archival Three large seminar rooms open off of the new building's central corridor.

• CMBtafbam-MBtl»Aa|ri« |Cntnliiliif»|-IMirnlKlil!llnC«i:n | Utm hi 1 p••,

Contact: Development Department, Center for Inquiry - Transnational' PO Box 741, Amherst NY 14226-0741 Located between the current and new buildings, this Garden Patio will be an exciting focus for seminar meal (716)636-4869, ext 311 breaks, media interviews, and other outdoor activities. E-mail: [email protected] • http://www.centerforinquiry.net

lTT>M:ii.!*ii:* ' - - nWnTnTiTTinTBJfiT! NEWS AND COMMENT

made-for-TV movie (starring James hit and earned about $4.4 million in the O'Sullivan described the film as "Part Earl Jones and Estelle Parsons). The first six months of release. Some of the talking-head documentary, part live- case served as a model for thousands of "scientists" featured were reportedly action narrative featurette and part subsequent abduction reports over the unhappy with the way they were por­ goofy animation [that] fails on all three following decades. trayed by the filmmakers and said that levels...stiffly written, badly acted, The Hills's psychiatrist, Benjamin they were not clear what they were par­ choppily edited, and awkwardly redun­ Simon, concluded they had experienced a ticipating in. Skeptics were, of course, dant. . .On the whole, it feels like a cross "shared dream" and, indeed specific less than impressed with the film (see between a PBS special hosted by a series inconsistencies in Bettys story are charac­ review "What the #$*! Do They Know?" of low-rent Deepak Chopras and an teristic of dreaming. Since she recalled September/October 2004), but even infomercial for self-help audio tapes. numerous particular details, while her given the New Agey over­ husband recalled very little. Dr. Simon tones, audiences and critics said that the "abduction" was not a shared have been slow to embrace it. experience, rather it indicated Barney had What the Bleep?s director obtained his knowledge of the incident and producers have focused after he repeatedly heard his wife tell her on grassroots publicity efforts nightmares to neighbors and friends. and cast themselves as film Betty Hill also recalled a "star map" mavericks who will show up a exhibited by one the aliens which she Hollywood that was not high- later drew from memory. Subsequently, minded enough to embrace after a six-year search, an Ohio school­ their ideas. It's perhaps not teacher and amateur astronomer, surprising that a cult-like film Marjorie Fish, believed she had found would achieve a cult-like fol­ matches for some of the dots and circles lowing, and it seems that on Betty's drawing, including our sun much of the revenue is gener­ and a planet of Zeta 2 Reticuli that was ated not by new filmgoers but seemingly the aliens' home base. Noted by repeat ones trying to figure astronomer Carl Sagan and a Cornell out just what the film is try­ University graduate student reported that a computer plot of fifteen star positions ing to say. Meyer Gottlieb, identified by Fish showed "little similar­ president of independent film ity" to those marked on Betty's drawing. distributor Samuel Goldwyn Films, said that he attended a Betty Hill was not only an excellent Los Angeles screening and hypnotic subject but she also exhibited met hundreds of people who many other traits associated with a fan­ "told me that the movie had tasy-prone personality. For years she an impact on their lives. Many had seen Bleep, indeed." Nick Schager of Slant believed UFOs followed and communi­ it two or three times." One devotee, a magazine concluded that, "If people are cated with her, as she related in her pri­ sixty-two-year-old Californian who has truly able to construct their own des­ vately published 1995 book, A Common seen the film twelve times, said, "It's a tinies, then I can only hope that What Sense Approach to UFOs. relief to get out of the [constant] barrage the Bleep, with its hokey and derivative —Joe Nickell of negative news and explore the deep CGI, John Tesh-influenced score, and connections between mind, body and screeching electronic sound effects, will spirit. . . . The movie is such an aberra­ beget a future devoid of these filmmak­ Critics Ravage 'Hoax' tion for Hollywood, a world driven by ers' creepily cultish work." New Age Film fear and the bottom line." Because the reviews have been over­ Mainstream filmgoers have more or whelmingly negative, ads for the film are An independent film directed and pro­ less ignored the film, while the critics deceptive and take blurbs out of context duced by followers of the New Age chan- have almost universally panned it. to suggest critical praise. The Los Angeles neller/guru J.Z. Knight called What the Maitland McDonagh, of TV Guide, says Times, for example, is quoted as calling Bleep Do We Know? was released last the film "quickly tumbles down a rabbit the film "Mind-Bending!" though a look February (and is still in theaters). The hole of annoying psychobabble, dubious at the actual review (by Kevin Crust) is film, a bizarre blend of mysticism and science, and embarrassingly silly anima­ decidedly less enthusiastic: "It's easy to quantum physics, has became a minor tion." Washington Post critic Michael question how much further you wish to

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 11 NEWS AND COMMENT go with the movie. . . . The journey pro­ Fate stepped in, for the Expo was not claims of having successfully cloned duces more questions than answers [and to be. When Vaughn Rees of CFI- West human beings. is] a mixed bag .. . fraught with an warned that conference was not listed on Three Raelian women are featured in excessive amount of navel-gazing." the Convention Center Web site, and that the Playboy pictorial, including Marina Film critic Roger Ebert called the the Paraworld Web site had been taken Boisselier, the daughter of Clonaid film a "hoax" and published a readers down, Hughes called the convention cen­ CEO Brigitte Boisselier, and Sophie, comment (apparently one of many) that ter in early September and was told that who has been the life companion of Rael said, "There's little to no accurate sci­ the event was no longer listed on their for the past thirteen years. ence in the film, and, as a physicist computer calendar. She and Andrews can- At a September 19, 2004, press con­ pointed out recently, the individuals ceiled the payments for their tickets, and ference in Montreal, Rael spoke "on the who are quoted are pretty far from qual­ found that the phone numbers for topic of nudity and spirituality," and ified experts on the field of quantum Paraworld had been disconnected. praised Hugh Hefner, Playboy's pub­ mechanics. Case in point: One of the Leslie Inzunza, who was hired to help lisher, for "his commendable actions persons expounding on causality and organize the event, said she and many aimed at breaking sexual taboos and for quantum physics ... is a chiropractor." others were trying to locate Paraworld actively taking part in the evolution of Ebert responded, "I knew there had to organizer Steven Doolittle. Though at lifestyles." Rael awarded Hefner (in be something fishy when the expert who least some of the tickets to the Expo have absentia) the title of "Honorary Priest." made the most sense was channeling a been refunded, as of this writing, several Inquiring minds want to know: will a 35,000-year-old seer from Atlantis." vendors—some of whom paid $2,500 for UFO landing pad be installed at the Playboy mansion anytime soon? —Benjamin Radford a booth—are trying to get their money back. Apparently, the participants' pow­ Benjamin Radford has been a film critic ers of perception and prediction were on Raelian Pseudoscience since 1994; his reviews are available at hiatus when they paid Doolittle for the The Raelians have recently taken up a www. radfordreviews. com. 2004 Paraworld Expo. Maybe the remote new cause, Intelligent Design (ID), and viewers will locate him. . . . are now actively advocating equal time for ID theory in classrooms around the Paranormal Expo —fames Underdown world. On September 21, 2004, the Cancelled Under Cloud James Underdown is Executive Director of U.S. Raelian Movement announced the Center for Inquiry-West in Los that the Raelians support "academic When the promoters of the paranor- Angeles. debates" about Intelligent Design and mal-chemed Paraworld Expo an­ evolution, and equal time for ID in the nounced its event at the Los Angeles classroom. A press release cited a recent Convention Center to be held October Raelian Update: paper on Intelligent Design by Stephen 21 through 24, 2004, Sherri Andrews C. Meyer, director and Senior Fellow of and Wendy Hughes of the Independent Sex, Pseudoscience, the Center for Science and Culture at Investigations Group at CFl-West had and Sacrilege the Discovery Institute in Seattle, in to see it for themselves. According to which he argues that "no current mate­ the promotional literature, "For the Raelian Sex rialistic theory of evolution can first time in history, ParaWorldExpo In 1950s sci-fi movies, aliens brought account for the origin of the informa­ LLC will bring together more than fifty mankind gifts like solutions to world tion necessary to build novel animal of the world's leading pioneers and peace and the cure for cancer. In the forms." The Raelians put a naturalis­ experts in a vast spectrum of paranor­ new millennium, they just want us to tic—and curious—twist on ID that mal topics. An estimated 250,000 indi­ have a lot of sex. The October 2004 Meyer and his Discovery Institute viduals from around the globe will issue of Playboy featured the other­ brethren might not have anticipated: embark on a four-day adventure." worldly Raelians, a UFO group known One of the major arguments against Where else could you find exhibits for its standards of free and open sexual­ The Theory of Intelligent Design about ghosts and hauntings, UFOs and ity as well as its belief that life on Earth has been that it went against the extraterrestrials, past lives, mediumship was engineered by space aliens. The 'naturalism philosophy'. . . . The demonstrations, angel communication, Raelians are, however, best known for Raelian Movement would like to underscore that the Theory of and tarot all under one roof? This event the 2002 cloning scandal, when Intelligent Design does not lead to a would be the Shangri-la of psychics, Clonaid—a company founded by the supernatural designer but to an the Valhalla of remote viewers, the group's leader, Rael—gained worldwide extraterrestrial human civilization Elysium of exorcists. notoriety for making unsubstantiated designer, which is in line with

12 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER NEWS AND COMMENT

editorial cartoonist the Food and Drug Administration" and Serge Chapleau began two of "corruptly endeavoring to influ­ to have fun at His ence, obstruct, and impede proceedings Holiness's expense. concerning the regulation of dietary After making fun of supplements containing ephedra being Rael's otherworldly conducted by the FDA." Federal clothing and hairdo, District Court Judge Napoleon Jones saying "It's an old has since dismissed the latter two counts dream of men to sleep because they lacked specificity, and con­ with a lot of loose solidated the other counts, saying that women at the same they did not constitute separate acts. time . . . but if I have to wear rhat suit and hairdo .. . forget it," Rael, the spiritual leader of the international Raelian Movement, poses Chapleau grabbed hold in front of a giant UFO. AFP PHOTO/CLONAID of the tight bun on Rael's head. Rael has 'naturalism philosophy.' One day, filed a complaint against Chapleau for maybe sooner than you might imag­ "physical aggression" and written a letter ine possible, we will go to other planets and scientifically engineer to CBC demanding a public apology. life on them. Then, probably, these —Kevin Christopher worlds will create deistic religions from the interactions we will have Kevin Christopher is Public Relations with them. After this, they will develop an evolutionary theory to Director for CSICOP. escape from the supernaturalistic view of their ancestors, and finally, they will discover that life on their planet was indeed designed—but by Metabolife Founder us, human beings who came from another world, the Earth. . . . Michael Ellis Charged with Lying to FDA The Raelians plan to launch a series of ongoing debates throughout schools On top of having the product his com­ Metabolife 356 was first formulated and universities on Intelligent Design, pany takes its name from banned (see by Ellis in 1989 and quickly became one and state that the "whole world" will News and Comment, SI, March/April of the top-selling diet aids in America. benefit from a "healthy" educational sys­ 2004), Michael J. Ellis, founder of However, dangerously adverse reactions tem where both evolution and ID arc Metabolife International, is now facing began to be reported by its users and their taught, arguing that students have "the charges of lying to the Food and Drug families, ranging from elevated heart rate right to know." Administration (FDA) about the safety to death. In a letter to die FDA in Perhaps the next time Discovery record of that product, ephedra-based February 1999, Ellis wrote, "Metabolife Institute representatives go to school Metabolife 356. In a press release issued has never been made aware of any adverse board hearings arguing for the teaching by the office of the United States health events by consumers of its prod­ of Intelligent Design, SKEPTICAL Attorney for the Southern District of ucts." However, the FDA contends that INQUIRER readers might make a point of California (Carol C. Lam), dated July Ellis had reports of some of these adverse attending and reminding Christian 22, 2004, a grand jury "returned an reactions ("at least 138" according to a board members and parents in the audi­ eight-count indictment" against Ellis congressional report released in October ence that ID is the "theory" of choice for and his company. Ellis and an attorney 2002), but failed to report them to a con­ the largest atheist, pro-cloning, free-love representing Metabolife entered pleas of gressional investigation. That document UFO group in the world. not guilty on all counts in federal court also notes that (at die rime of that report) on July 27. "Metabolife records include nearly 2,000 Raelian Sacrilege Under the original indictment, both reports of significant adverse reactions to Rael stormed off the set of the Quebec Ellis and his company each faced eight Metabolife products," thai "many of the television show Tout le Monde en Parle charges: six counts of "making false, fic­ significant adverse events involve con­ (The Whole World's Talking about It), after titious and fraudulent representations to sumers who were young, in good health.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 200$ 13 NEWS AND COMMENT

and taking recommended dosages" when particular article interesting was the year chics would all miss such an event of the events occurred. Furthermore, being predicted: 2001, in an issue dated global importance." "Metabolife's handling of the adverse January 11-17. Dozens of predictions All three gamely replied: event reports exhibits indifference to the were made; some were right, some were Alan Oken stated that, "Simply stated— health of consumers" (see www. wrong, most of them were obvious, I am not a psychic and did not make any democrats.reform.house.gov/Documents vague, or impossible to verify. But all the psychic predictions." (This is a curious /20040827102309-56026.pdf for fur­ psychics somehow missed what in retro­ statement, given that the article clearly ther details of these findings). spect was the most important event of refers to him as a psychic and lists "Alan Though the ban went into effect 2001, a watershed moment in American Oken's Predictions.") in April of this year, the company (and indeed geopolitical) history: the ter­ Martha Woodworth wrote only, continues to market other diet­ rorist attacks of September 11. "No. I don't [have an explanation]." ary supplements, including non- There were five psychics featured in Stan Alexander, voted "Best Psychic" ephedra-based appetite suppressants die Alibi piece; one of them is conve­ in a 1999 poll of the newspaper's read­ and Metabolife Starch Buster, a prod­ niently anonymous (he goes by "N."), ers, suggested that he did in fact have an uct the company claims reduces the and another has since died and therefore inkling of the events but did not want absorption of carbohydrates. can't answer questions. The remaining to publicize the results of his prophetic In a related development, a new three are described in the article: gift: "While many, including myself, study using dogs has provided addi­ "Alan Oken is a psychic and social may have had intuited something along tional evidence that ephedrine can kill. commentator 'whose real work is in the those lines taking place, it is not some­ When the drug was administered to development of consciousness.' He has thing that one puts out as it can cause healthy dogs, no bad effects were been in the field for more than thirty too much potential alarm and panic. noted, but when dogs with reversible, years, has written twelve books, speaks Anybody demonstrating responsibility artificially induced arterial blockages seven languages, and lectures worldwide will know that predictions are not an were given the compound, fibrillation, six months out of the year.'" exact science and as such, caution in or elevated heart rates, were observed— "Martha Woodworth is a tarot reader what is to be put in print must be in some cases, potentially lethal rates. and astrologer specializing in career, cre­ demonstrated." (He had information Arterial blockages can occur naturally ativity and relationship advice. She has that might have saved thousands of in humans without being detected, twenty years' experience in the field and people's lives and changed the course of and, judging by this evidence, anyone has taught the psychic crafts at Santa Fe with such a blockage who took history but didn't want to create alarm Community College for seven years. She an ephedrine-based compound for and panic?) weight loss could be in danger of suf­ is also a psychic detective who has I did a Web search and found the fering fatal cardiac arrest. The report appeared on Unsolved Mysteries, was the article online at http://alibi.com/ was published in the Journal of the 'Psychic Adviser' columnist for New alibi/2001-01-1 l/feature_section.html. American College of Cardiology on Woman magazine." The predictions had been easily avail­ October 26, 2004. "Stan Alexander is a local psychic able for the world to see since January specializing in private readings—tarot, 2001. Oddly, only a few weeks after I —David Park Musella palm, runes, and numerology. He has asked the psychics about their failed been featured in several international predictions, the page had been removed David Park Musella is an editorial assis­ publications and television programs from the Weekly Alibi Web site (those tant with SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. and has been a headlining entertainer from other years are still there). This at nightclubs and other venues across action may just be a coincidence, or the country." perhaps the Weekly Alibi received a Psychics (Don't) Explain As the third anniversary of the request from one of the embarrassed Missing September 11 attacks approached, I contacted the psychics who asked them to remove his remaining three by e-mail on August 18, or her glaringly wrong predictions. While going though files on psychics a 2004, to ask about their spectacular fail­ Though much harder to find, the site is few months ago, I came across a newspa­ ures: "I read through all of them, and archived elsewhere and still accessible at per article listing annual psychic predic­ couldn't help but notice that you (and http://web.archive.org/web/ tions—in and of itself, an unremarkable all the other psychics) somehow missed 20010420235304/http://www.alibi. find. The article appeared in die Weekly the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. I was won­ com/alibi/2001-01-11 /feature_section. Alibi (Albuquerque, New Mexico) and dering if you had any explanation or html#feat. featured predictions from local psychics comment on this, as it seems very for die following year. What made this strange that so many prominent psy­ —Benjamin Radford

14 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL

Mystery Painting: The Shadow of the Cross'

n enigmatic painting is Sources even allege that more exhibited at the church extensive scientific examinations Aof San Francisco de Asis have been conducted, utilizing (St. Francis of Assisi) at Ranchos "Geiger counters, light tests and de Taos, New Mexico (figure 1). scrapings"—all to no avail It depicts a barefoot Jesus stand­ (Michell 1979, 94). However ing by the Sea of Galilee; how­ as reported by New Mexico ever, when the lights are extin­ Magazine, while a church archi­ guished, the background lumi­ vist claimed the painting had nesces as if the sky and sea were once been analyzed "for all shining in moonlight, and the fig­ known luminescent substances," ure becomes silhouetted, a cross she conceded "she had no docu­ appearing at the left shoulder and mentation of the testing and a halo over the head (Michell was not sure who did the 1979, 94; Colombo 1999, test or when" (Gaussoin 1998). 70-72). (See figure 2.) Other Such alleged analyses appear to mysterious effects are sometimes be apocryphal, representing at­ reported as well. tempts to convince the credulous that science is trumped by super­ Background natural mystery. Known as "The Shadow of the In 1948 the picture was Cross," the life-size painting was donated to the church, and in the created in 1896 by an obscure early 1980s it was relocated in a room of the adjacent parish hall, French-Canadian artist named Figure 1. Historic mission church of San Francisco de Asis in Henri Ault (d. ca. 1912), who Ranchos de Taos, New Mexico, is home to a "mystery pa inting." furnished witft folding chairs. A had a studio in the Cobalt, (Photo by Joe Nickell) videotape provides an introduc­ tion to the local parish. Ontario, region (Rawson 1914, (1832-1919) was the first to attempt— When the lights are turned out, 615-616). Ault is said to have denied unsuccessfully—to explain the painting and die background begins to glow, being responsible for the effect, which (Michell 1979, 94), which toured subjective impressions can prevail. he claimed to have discovered (quite Europe and was supposedly an attrac­ Observes one source (Crystal 2003): fortuitously) upon entering his studio tion at die 1904 Worlds Fair in St. "Soon the silhouette of Jesus grows one night. "He believed he was going Louis. A church brochure claims: "It is three-dimensional and appears more mad, and he was never able to explain not known what causes the background the reason for the transformation," to be luminous. It was painted before states writer John Michell (1979, 94). radium was discovered and when tested Joe Nickell is CSICOP's Senior Research Reportedly, British scientist and with Geiger counters the results have Fellow and author of numerous investigative gullible spiritualist William Crookes been negative" (Shadow n.d.). hooks, including Looking for a Miracle.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 15 like a dark statue than flat image. His the viewer will produce the same effect rendered with a phosphorescent (glow- robes seem to billow in the breeze. ..." (Nickell 2003). in-the-dark) one. The church takes a cautious view of The picture is also said to appear The same principle could explain the the phenomenon, and there are no more intense the longer one views it, but appearing-cross effect, except in that case reported healing cures associated with that would be expected due to the the phosphorescent paint would need to the painting. Pilgrims' reactions vary. viewer's eyes becoming accustomed to visibly match that of the non-glowing Some exclaim "It's a miracle!" says the dark. In the mottled background of background areas—something easy for archivist Corina Santistevan. "There are the painting, some see a boat, angels, or an artist to accomplish. This was my pre­ those who are very touched and very other images, but these are simply simu­ ferred hypothesis to explain the mystery, moved and very reverent," she says. lacra: pictures perceived, Rorschach- after I first learned of it from Canadian "And those who continue to be skepti­ like, in random patterns. Some people writer John Robert Colombo (1996). cal. And those who are curious and want report seeing the image of Jesus Supporting this hypothesis is the a scientific explanation" (Chavez 2002). "vibrate," the docent told us; however, observation that the painting's back­ that is attributable to the well-known ground—in contrast to the other Investigation autokinetic effect, in which a stationary areas—is badly cracked and flaking, I was among the latter group. I visited light in the dark appears to be moving, consistent with its having a different the historic church on October 27, due to slight, involuntary eye move­ composition. (Underneath, where the 2003, accompanied by colleague ments (Schick and Vaughn 1999, 45). upper layer has flaked off, is a very Vaughn Rees. While photographs—and All such effects may be augmented by bright blue, whose presence suggests the certainly actual examinations of the the power of suggestion. picture was repainted—as with a phos­ painting—are not permitted, we man­ Regarding the appearance of the halo phorescent paint.)' Further corrobora­ aged to get a close look by staying for and cross, it must be noted that— tive evidence comes from the fact that two showings and the interval between. contrary to some sources (e.g., Michell the glowing of the paint begins to Some of the picture's touted myster­ 1979, 94; Crystal 2003)—the halo is diminish after a few minutes—just like ies are easily explained, such as our always visible, consisting of a simple out­ phosphorescent paint—and must be re- docent's claim that Jesus' eyes follow the lined ellipse. It merely becomes silhou­ exposed to light for the effect to con­ viewer wherever he or she stands. That is etted when the background luminesces. tinue (Casper 2004). merely the result of a three-dimensional Such an effect—as my own experiments Proponents' insistence that the picture view being "fixed" in a two-dimensional demonstrated—could easily be created was created before radium was discovered representation, and any such portrait in by painting the halo outline with ordi­ (by Pierre and Marie Curie in 1898) is which the subject's eyes gaze directly at nary, opaque paint over a background largely irrelevant, since non-radium luminous paints had long been available commercially. The first, Balmain's paint (a calcium sulfide phosphor to which was added a small amount of a bismuth com­ pound as an "activator") appeared in 1870 (Phosphorescence 1911; Lumi­ nescence 1960). In 1879 an English patent was awarded "for the use of phos­ phorescent salts, such as sulphid [sulfide] of lime, of strontium, barium, etc., for the purpose of illumination by mixing them with paint or varnish ..." (Phos­ phorescent 1879).2 Although in 1896 Ault's "The Shadow of the Cross" was a novelty, some modern artists now produce lumi­ nous paintings as a special genre (Duffy 1995), and there are commercial trans­ formational pictures (such as a "daylight" seascape that, in the dark, becomes a "sunset" scene using four glow-in-the- dark colors [Spilsbury 1997]).

MYSTERY PAINTING: Figure 2. Before-and-after photos of the transformational painting, "The Shadow of the Cross," illustrate a mystery that supposedly baffles science. (Photos reproduced courtesy of Sarbo THE SHADOW OF THE CROSS' Photography, Albuquerque, N.M.) Continued on page 21

16 January/February 200S SKEPTICAL INQUIRER PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER

Hurricane Osama?

ith the recent devastating might have deflected [hurricane] Ivan Prize-winning book (see www.john and remarkable assault on away from its original projected landfall emackinstitute.org). The incident seems WFlorida by one destructive around Tampa." to be a random tragic accident, as Mack hurricane after another, some are ques­ Yet Trainor can suggest another even was in a crosswalk and the driver was tioning whether there might not be more remarkable theory: "Other than reported to be intoxicated. But almost some yet-unexplained reason behind so aliens, I can think of only one source immediately, some UFOlogists began to much misery. Joseph Trainor, editor of able to create and sustain that unusual speculate that somebody must have the Webzine UFO Roundup, observed Bermuda High over the Atlantic— wanted Mack dead, apparently because that "The band of high pressure in the Shambhala, the hidden city of mystics he knew too much about flying saucers. Atlantic stretches from Cabo Verde all in Afghanistan. Shambhala is reputed to Within a day of Mack's death, a note the way to Florida, which is really have access to the weather-modification was widely circulated on the Internet unusual ... it creates a kind of 'con­ technology of ancient Atlantis. There from somebody purporting to be veyor belt' carrying the storms all the have also been reports of Osama Bin "British Higher Intelligence Agent X." way across and then shooting them up Laden hiding out occasionally in X says, "There's something circumstan­ into the Caribbean" (see www.ufoinfo. Shambhala. Osama might have per­ tially very odd here. Why was Mack com/roundup/v09/rnd0938.shtml). suaded the Shambhalans to use 'weather alone in a deserted area almost totally What could be the cause of this? One warfare' against the USA. Is it just a unknown to him? For a planned hit, die possibility is suggested by the fact that coincidence that the 'hurricane blitz' Totteridge area of Mack's travels from UFO Roundup received three emails began on August 3, the same date Allied his London dinner would be the perfect from readers who claimed to have heard forces stepped up their offensive in time and place. Car accident? You the High Frequency Active Auroral Afghanistan?... I just find it extremely would have to try very hard to get hit by Research Program (HAARP) broadcast­ interesting that Hurricane Ivan's worst a car at night in this area. It is almost ing from Alaska on September 14, on a fury descended upon the old Jewish syn­ totally deserted at night, being right by frequency of 3.390 MHz. HAARP is an agogue in Pensacola, Fla., as if Osama three of the biggest reservoirs in Britain. unclassified program managed by the planned it that way." The vast waters would have been a per­ Air Force Research Laboratory and the Evidence of another quite inexplica­ fect entrance and exit route for a hit Office of Naval Research (see www. ble conspiracy at work has just recently team in silent electric dinghies." The haarp.alaska.edu/haarp/faq.html). But come to light. On September 28, Dr. San Francisco Bohemian physicist Jack according to conspiracy theorists, it is John Mack, Professor of Psychiatry at Sarfatti commented, "As Agent X says: also involved in mind control and Harvard University and one of the lead­ What was John Mack doing alone late at weather modification. Wearers of tinfoil ing promoters of "UFO abduction" sto­ night in such a god-forsaken place? I hats presumably wear them to block sig­ ries, was struck by a car and killed while have recently returned from Britain nals from HAARP (which are just high- crossing a street in London (sec News myself and I would never have been powered short-wave radio transmis­ and Comment, page 9). Mack was in sions). "Personally I don't think HAARP London to speak at a conference about Robert Sheaffer's World Wide Web page fir has the power to 'steer' a hurricane," T.E. Lawrence ("Lawrence of Arabia"), UFOs and other skeptical subjects is at said Trainor. "But the Tuesday burst about whom he had written a Pulitzer unuw. debunker. com.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 17 alone in such a place late at night. on September 22, a "large serpent with a Another "classic" UFO photo has Something stinks here." Now all that hairy head and reddish eyes" that report­ joined the ranks of admitted hoaxes—at remains to be explained is why anyone edly emerged at night from a brick shack. least for a few weeks, anyway. On would want to assemble a hit team to "We were baking bread when my wife February 15, 1954, a thirteen-year-old attack an eccentric old professor whose saw the head of this veritable monster British schoolboy named Stephen pronouncements about UFOs had got­ emerging from between the holes in the Darbishire and his eight-year-old ten so bizarre that practically nobody wall of a brick shack," said Jose Venticola. cousin Adrian Meyer were out strolling took him seriously any longer. "I was paralyzed. It had a snake's head, in the hills near Coniston, in the Lake Similar conspiracy claims surround but hairy, with red eyes and a piercing District, when they used an "old- the May 14, 2004, death of Eugene gaze." They called out firefighters to hunt fashioned" Kodak box camera to snap Mallove, the editor of Infinite Energy the creature, but like all paranormal two photos of an alleged "flying saucer" magazine, a major promoter of claims monsters it was never found (see that had supposedly landed nearby. about "cold fusion." Mallove, who had www.virtuallystrange.net/ufo/updates/20 The photos, which closely resembled been overjoyed to hear in April that the 04/sep/m23-027.shtml). those published by the California UFO U.S. Department of Energy had agreed to But some solid paranormal evidence contactee George Adamski, quickly give "cold fusion" yet another review, was may at last be forthcoming. UFO became a national media sensation. It badly beaten while cleaning up a vacated Magazine in Brazil reports that a was said to be the first photo of a flying rental house in Norwich, Connecticut, "Skeleton in Brazilian museum might saucer taken in Britain. The object in owned by his mother (see News & be of an alien being" (see www.virtually the photos looks implausible in the Comment, Sept./Oct. 2004). Police strange.net/ufo/updates/2004/oct/m06- extreme: flat, silvery, and out-of-focus. believe that robbery was the motive. His 0l7.shtml). At the privately owned Desmond Leslie, the British UFOlogist vehicle was stolen but recovered nearby, Wilson Estevanovic Museum of Natural who was Adamski's colleague and co­ and investigators believe that his death History in the city of Uberaba, which author, quickly traveled to Coniston to may be related to two other murders in had its origin in a collection of artifacts interview the boys at length. Leslie the area (see www.wfsb.com/Global/story. exhibited in nineteenth-century cir­ noted that the boys kept a consistent asp?S=2092115). Police suspect that his cuses, a bizarre-looking skeleton is said story when interviewed by four hard­ killer may have been Jarion Childs, a for­ to be giving visitors the willies. It is ened journalists from the BBC, and he mer college basketball star who was killed apparently an embalmed skeleton that cited their story and photos as strong while attempting to rob a Dairy Queen in had been in the family's possession for confirming evidence of Adamski's tales. Connecticut on June 28. Childs was shot ninety-six years. The Estevanovic family Leonard G. Cramp, an aeronautical while reportedly beating the owner of that does not know where the piece comes engineer, wrote a bizarre 1955 book establishment with a crowbar. However, from or how it was embalmed, but they titled Space, Gravity, & The Flying many conspiracy theorists insist that believe it is more than 200 years old. Saucer in which he used a system called Mallove was killed because he knew too The creature has an extremely large head "orthographic projection" to prove that much about "cold fusion" (see, for exam­ for its size. One doctor said that the car­ the object depicted in the Darbishire ple, www.greatdreams.com/mallove.htm cass "seems to have belonged to a her­ and Adamski photographs were propor­ and www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/ maphrodite with six-fingered feet. . . tionally identical. When Stephen and thread50762/pgl). Norwich police Lt. this being had multiple anomalies. The his father were visiting London in Timothy Menard was quoted in The most evident ones are the presence of March 1954, they were quietly escorted Boston Herald on May 18: "There are hydrocephaly and palate-labial fissure." to Buckingham Palace to meet with one tons of people calling saying he may have However, many people who have seen of Prince Philip's private secretaries. been on the verge of a great discovery. We the being are convinced that it is an The London Sunday Dispatch got wind don't feel (a conspiracy is) the case at this extraterrestrial creature. Veruska Este­ of this meeting and reported (March point." However, Menard added that vanovic, a biology student at the Uni­ 24, 1954) that the queen's husband had "We haven't ruled out any possibility." versity of Bahia and the granddaughter invited their visit because he wanted to of the museum's founder, concluded know more about the saucer incident. • • • after her own investigation that the For an example of UFOIogists who Paranormal monsters continue to men­ skeleton probably belongs to an take the Darbishire "landing" quite seri­ ace South America. In my last column extraterrestrial. A.J. Gevaerd, the editor ously, see www.ufoinfo.com/roundup/ (November/December 2004, page 20), I of UFO Magazine of Brazil and the v04/rnd04_07.shtml and www.algonet. wrote about the "winged dogs" and fly­ founder of the Brazilian Center for se/-hermesat/adamski.htm. The case is ing "dog-faced kangaroos" that have Flying Saucer Research, says that he is discussed in NICAP's classic 1964 been troubling certain residents of Chile. assembling a team to study the creature, "UFO Evidence" by Richard Hall, but Now in Argentina, several employees of a with the full cooperation of the museum Hall does not reach a firm conclusion fish hatchery have reported, according to owners. about whether the photos are genuine the Diario El Tribuno (Salta, Argentina) or not. Over the years, Darbishire has

18 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUI RER alternately stuck to his story, then pro­ sake of "art" (see www.nwemail.co.uk/ UFOIogists agonize over whether or not claimed it a hoax, and later claimed that news/viewarticle.aspx?id= 143262). He to accept Darbishire's on-again, off- the "hoax" was itself a hoax. Darbishire, used a fishing pole, a wooden frame, again confessions of a hoax, as if the now a sixty-three-year-old artist and and a silvery UFO-shaped object. photos themselves were not implausible retired teacher, admitted in an interview However, by the time that Claxton was enough, and as if a witness who keeps published September 10 that the saucer ready with his extraterrestrial perfor­ changing his story should be believed photos were a "schoolboy prank," saying mance art on October 8, Darbishire had when he makes any extraordinary claim. that when confronted by the national changed his story yet again, now claim­ Some suggest that Darbishire's UFO media, he was "too terrified" to confess, ing that the photo had "definitely" not encounter and photos may somehow be and so he continued the deception. been faked (see www.thisisthelakedis- too deep and profound for simplis­ Another local artist, Julian Claxton, trict.co.uk/news/lakes/display.var.53427 tic words like "true" or "false" (see, recently re-created the photos to show 2.0.coniston_old_man_to_host_artist_ for example, www.flyingsaucery.com/ how the hoax had been done, for the and_ufo.php). Some deep-thinking brigantia/brigmain.htm).

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 19 THINKING ABOUT SCIENCE MASSIMO PIGLIUCCI

Piltdown and How Science Really Works

hen one debates cre­ sion of the story can be found in the ationists (admit­ 1955 classic, The Piltdown Forgery by tedly a question­ J.S. Weiner (one of the scientists who wable, yet ofte n very satisfying, eventually uncovered the truth), recently habit), one is bound to run up re-issued by Oxford University Press against the infamous Piltdown with a new introduction and afterword. forgery. This is the case of an Before Piltdown, very little of the alleged missing link between human fossil record was known. When humans and so-called lower Darwin wrote The Descent of Man, he primates, that was found in had to rely largely on comparative data England (near Piltdown, in from other living species of pri­ fact) and announced to mates, for only the clearly the world on December almost-human 18, 1912. The announce­ Neanderthals were ment was made by Arthur known to paleon­ Smith Woodward, a pale­ tologists. A few ontologist of the British years before Piltdown, Museum of Natural however, two impor­ History, and Charles tant discoveries were Dawson, a local amateur made: that of Java paleontologist, the actual man in 1891 and discoverer of the fossils. The Heidelberg man in 1907, neither problem is—as creationists of which were very ancient. When a never tire to point out—that the "Dawn significantly older set of prehuman Man of Piltdown" (scientific name remains was allegedly found at Piltdown, Eoanthropus dawsoni, in honor of its dis­ as one's secular religion? QED. the scientific world was simply ready for coverer) turned out to be a fake. Many scientists are rather embar­ the discovery. It was what practitioners Moreover, it took scientists four decades rassed by die Piltdown debacle, some­ in die field had expected, something that to find out! See what happens when one how managing to feel guilty and indi­ surely the perpetrator of the hoax knew takes the doctrine of evolution on faith, rectly responsible for whatever goes very well. wrong in their chosen profession. Supposed evidence of Piltdown man Massimo Pigliucci is a professor of evolu­ And yet, as I shall endeavor to was found on more than one occasion at tionary biology at SUNY--Stony Brook, explain, Piltdown should be presented in two separate sites: fragments of skulls, of and the author of Denying Evolution: all introductory biology textbooks as a a lower jaw, and even of stone tools asso­ Creationism, Scientism and die Nature perfect example of how science actually ciated with the "culture" of these of Science. His essays can be found at works! Let us briefly see how die hoax predawn men. While there were skeptics www. rationallyspeaking. org. unfolded. A complete and engaging ver­ from die beginning, die hoax was simply

20 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER too elaborate and cunningly put togedier Be diat as it may, what does this story Eoanthropus dawsoni so fast in the to raise the suspicion of a significant tell us about how science works? Well, beginning—because it seemed to be the number of paleontologists. National on the negative side, it is painfully clear much sought-after "missing link" in pride probably also played a role in a that science depends on an assumption human evolution—was also the reason professional establishment that at the of honesty on the pan of its practition­ why, four decades later, scientists kept time was dominated by British scientists, ers. Peer review is focused on uncovering pursuing the possibility that it was not with the British Museum being the epi­ methodological or reasoning errors, not genuine after all. While four decades of center of all the activities surrounding possible frauds. But since science is, after delay may seem an inordinate amount the study of die Piltdown fossils. all, a human activity, egos, money, and of time, they are but the blink of an eye Yet suspicions about die authenticity the search for glory—however brief—are when compared to the history of the of Eoanthropus dawsoni grew, until a still to be reckoned with. As Piltdown human quest for knowledge. Moreover, group of researchers, including Wilfrid and other forgeries have shown, scien­ it is important to note that it was scien­ Le Gros Clark, Kenneth Oakley, and Joe tists are continuously open to the possi­ tists who uncovered the hoax, not cre­ Weiner, applied stringent chemical tests bility of someone fooling them by not ationists, which is both an immense to the remains, demonstrating that the playing by the rules of the game. credit to the self-correcting nature of sci­ "fossils" had been planted and chemi­ On the other hand, science is a social ence and yet another indication that cre- cally altered to make diem seem appro­ activity unlike any other that human ationism is only a religious doctrine priately ancient: the Dawn Man was beings engage in: it is a game of discov­ with no power of discovery. nothing but a perfectly ordinary human ery played against a powerful but neu­ This is, then, why Piltdown—far skull paired up with a somewhat unusu­ tral opponent, nature itself. And nature from being an embarrassment—should ally small jaw from an orangutan. What cannot be fooled, at least not for long. be prominently featured in biology text­ Weiner and colleagues couldn't say for The reason suspicions kept mounting books: it is an example of how the nature sure was who carried out the hoax, about the true origin of die Piltdown of science is not that of a steady, linear although a strong case was then made by remains was that the more paleontolo­ march toward the Truth but rather of a Weiner in his 1955 book that the perpe­ gists uncovered about human evolution, tortuous road, often characterized by trator was none other than Dawson die less Dawn Man seem to fit with the dead ends and U-turns, yet ultimately himself. [See also review of Miles rest of die puzzle. In a sense, the very progressing toward a better, if tentative, Russell, Piltdown Man, on p. 50.] factor that made the acceptance of understanding of the natural world.

MYSTERY PAINTING: (Lyndhurst, N.J.), generously provided a com/apparitions.html; accessed August 10, THE SHADOW OF THE CROSS' phosphorescent pigment for my experi­ 2004. Continued from page 16 ments. I am also grateful to Paul Loynes for Duffy, Michael. 1995. Anders Knutsson: The word processing and Lisa Hutter for photo­ Experience of Light. Available at www.andcrs graphic assistance. knutsson.com/Duffy.htm: accessed Oct. 15. Conclusions 2003. Gaussoin, Helen. 1998. Ranches de Taos painting Evidence suggests that despite his Notes shrouded in mystery. New Mexico Magazine, reported protestations to the contrary, 1. Vaughn Rees used a hand-held ultraviolet December 21. artist Henri Ault deliberately and clev­ lamp (both short-wave and long-wave) to examine Laurie, A.P. 1967. The Painters Methods and the area around the cross but die UV showed Materials. New York: Dover Publications. erly created "The Shadow of die Cross" nothing remarkable. Luminescence. 1960. Encyclopaedia Britannica. effects. Just such a metamorphosing pic­ 2. One source claims that any known lumi­ Michell, John. 1979. Simulacra- Faces and Figures ture could have been accomplished using nous paint should have ceased to be phosphores­ in Nature. London: Thames and Hudson. cent by now due to oxidation (Shadow n.d.). Be Nickell, Joe. 2003. Haunted plantation. SKEPTICAL glow-in-the-dark pigments or paints that that as it may. paintings arc often given a protec­ INQUIRER 27(5). September/October 12-15. tive coat of varnish (Laurie 1967, 169-171) which were well known and even commercially Phosphorescence. 1911. Encyclopaedia Britannica. can improve die longevity and brightness of lumi­ Phosphorescent paint patented. 1879. Manu­ available at the time the painting was nous paints (Phosphorescent 2003). produced. It is no longer much of a mys­ facturer and Builder 11(9). September 199. Phosphorescent pigments. 20O3. Available at tery and certainly no miracle, notwith­ References www.gtamart.com/mart/productsyphspgmnt/ standing die disingenuity with which the Casper. Robert F. 2004. Telephone interview by paints.html; accessed October 20. painting's custodians claim science is baf­ Joe Nickell. August 25. Rawson, F.L 1914. Life Understood from a Scientific and Religious Point of View. London: fled while at the same time avoiding die Chavez, Lorenzo. 2002. Taos mystery painting puzzles scientists, tourists. August 14. Available The Crystal Press. testing diat could lay die matter to rest. at www.archden.org/dcr/archive/20020814/ Schick. Theodore. Jr., and Lewis Vaughn. 1999. 20020814l5wn.htm; accessed August 10, How to Think About Weird Things. Mountain Acknowledgments 2004. View, California: Mayfield Publishing Com­ Colombo, John Robert. 1996. Letter (widi enclo­ pany. In addition to Vaughn Rees and John Robert sures) to Joe Nickell, July 2. The Shadow of the Cross. N.d. [1996). Brochure. Colombo, I received research assistance from . 1999. Mysteries of Ontario. Toronto: San Francisco dc Asis. Ranchos de Taos, New Timothy Binga and Benjamin Radford. Hounslow Press. Mexico. Philip Befumo, Jr., Product Manager of Crystal, Ellic. 2003. Apparitions and Miracles. Spilsbury Puzzle Company. 1997. Catalog item United Mineral & Chemical Corporation February 14. Available at www.crystalinks. A3101. "Sunset by the Sea." 80.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 21 NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO

Facts and Fiction in the Kennedy Assassination

nvestigating historical mys­ j-^| a freeway. The Presidential lim­ teries is, possibly, one die ousine entered the plaza, moved Imost fascinating and slowly along Houston Street, rewarding aspects of die work of then took a left turn right in a skeptical researcher. Mysteries front of die Texas School Book diat appear to have no possible Depository building. solutions, that could certainly It was diirty minutes past be termed "cold," can, some­ noon. What happened next was times, become clearer thanks to documented by a movie buff, a more careful investigation of Abraham Zapruder, who was die original sources and also to fuming die motorcade with an die advancements of science. 8 mm movie camera. The film is silent, for diere was no audio on Think only of die many histori­ November 1963, John F. Kennedy and Jackie in the presidential motor- cal enigmas and crimes that cade. Cred t: 1963 Art Rickerby/Black Star home-movie cameras back dien. DNA-testing techniques have During the shocking sequence, tragic death of President John Fitzgerald helped to solve, like the riddle of the President can be seen waving to die Kennedy, and it would take a few com­ Anastasia Romanoff's claimed survival crowd, but then he is hit by something and plete issues of SKEPTICAL INQUIRER just (Gill 1994, 1995) or the real origins of brings his hands to his neck, right in front to deal with the more relevant matters Kaspar Hauser (Weichhold 1998). of him. Governor Connally starts to turn involved in the case. I will outline sev­ However, cases are often made more and shake, he is hit as well. Then, there is a eral examples of bad research involved in difficult to solve when facts get confused fatal shot to Kennedy's head. He died soon popular investigations of this case. with imagined realities and unfounded after at die hospital. Let's get back to that fatal day, conclusions. Eyewitness testimonies and Who killed him? It was soon deter­ November 22, 1963. President Kennedy self-styled experts, even in good faith, mined that the shots came from the arrived in Dallas, Texas, during the elec­ can alter details and hide important sixth floor of the Book Depository. tion campaign. In 1964, there would clues diat—if untouched—could lead to There, piles of boxes were found, have been new elections, and Kennedy, radically different conclusions. In order stashed around a window, creating a who wanted to be sure to be re-elected, to give you some clear examples of what "sniper's nest" with a clear view of the had started a tour of the southern I mean, I will examine one of the great site of the shooting. A rifle was also states, the most conservative ones, where tragedies of die twentieth century. found that had just been fired along he was less popular due to his progres­ with three spent cartridge shells. The Day JFK Died sive ideas. After about two hours, a suspect was It was decided that a motorcade Hundreds of books and thousands of stopped. He had had a confrontation would be conducted through the city. articles have been written about die with the police inside a movie theater, Kennedy and his wife would be in the and it was later found out that he had backseat of the presidential limousine, just shot dead a policeman who had Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the and Governor Connally and his wife stopped him on a nearby street. paranormal, author, lecturer, and cofounder would sit in front of them. His name was Lee Harvey Oswald; and head of CICAP, the Italian skeptics Dealey Plaza, in downtown Dallas, is a he was a young man who worked at die group. His Web site is www.massimo large, basin-like square where three roads depository and had been seen on die polidoro.com. converge toward an underpass that leads to sixth floor of that building just minutes

22 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER tion—and the fallibility of eyewitness accounts (Loftus 1980, 1996). One of the best-known witnesses to the assassination, and the only one who is also the author of a book from the point of view of an eyewitness, was a woman named Jean Hill (Sloan and Hill 1992). She can be seen in the Zapruder film, standing beside a friend. In her testimony, told and retold over the last forty years, she claimed among other things that she was looking at the limousine where she saw Kennedy and his wife, Jackie; the couple was "looking at a little dog between them," a "white fluffy dog." Hill then jumped to the edge of the Figure 1. The hypothetical trajectory of the "magic bullet" as presented by various authors street to yell, "Hey, we want to take your (Garrison 1988, Groden 1989). picture!" JFK turned over to look at her. At that point, he was shot, and Jackie shouted, "My God, he has been shot!" Then, Mrs. Hill said that she saw "some men in plain clothes shooting back" and "a man with a hat running toward the mon­ ument" on die other side of the plaza on the so-called "grassy knoll." Immediately, she started running after him, thinking he was involved in die shooting. "When I ran across the street," she specified, "die first motorcycle that was right behind the President's car nearly hit me." Thus, she was the first person to run up the grassy knoll, and many followed her. However, the man ran off and she missed him. She was convinced that this Figure 2. The real trajectory, plotted in accordance with the exact postures of Kennedy and Connally, was not significantly altered until the bullet was slightly deflected by Connally's rib. man was Jack Ruby, the club owner (Images adapted from Posner 1993) who, in three days, would kill Lee Harvey Oswald. before the shooting. After that, he dis­ than one killer, and this meant that And there we have our proof for the appeared, and he turned out to be the there had been a conspiracy plot to kill existence of a conspiracy. only employee absent from the deposi­ the president. This, however, is one of those rare tory for no legitimate reason. At least, I believed that until I started occasions in which dozens of reporters Oswald was an ex-marine and com­ to research the story for my latest book and photographers are present on the munist sympathizer. The evidence (Polidoro 2004), and the strangest thing scene of an event and so there are count­ against him quickly piled up, but only to me was that the deeper 1 went into it, less statements on record from eyewit­ three days after his capture, during his the more the Oliver Stone version of the nesses and pictures from every angle. transfer to a police van that would escort story looked weirder and weirder. Thus, we can compare Jean Hill's mem­ him to a more secure prison, nightclub I can't go into the coundess details ory with actual facts. owner Jack Ruby shot him dead. here, as I have done in the book, but I'll Those of you who have seen the give you just a couple of examples of the • She said that she was looking at the Oliver Stone movie JFK, where this kind of pitfalls into which a historical limousine. story is told in great detail, will remem­ investigator can easily fall. In the film, you can see that when ber die many contradictions coming out Kennedy is shot the first time, she is looking away from him. of die official investigation of the assas­ I Saw It; I Was There ... sination. I have seen that movie as well, Most strange phenomena and conspir­ • She said that the couple was "look­ ing at a little dog between them," a and, like anyone else, I couldn't help but acy theories rely on eyewitness testi­ "white fluffydog. " be convinced that Oswald could not be mony. Psychologists are aware of the There was no dog between them, just the only assassin. There had to be more many limits of memory and percep­ a bunch of red flowers.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 23 • She said that she "jumped to the ing of JFK buffs, and was even depicted in the back seat, and Connally was sit­ edge of the street" to yell, "Hey, we in Oliver Stone's movie. She is the ting lower, in the middle of the front want to take your picture!" and JFK proud holder of a card bragging that seat of the car. So, in order to produce turned over to look at her. she was the "closest witness" to the those injuries, the path shown in figure The Zapruder film shows that Hill never moved or said a word—and the President at the time of the fatal shot to 2 is the real trajectory that a bullet had President did not turn to look over. In the head. It is quite clear what happens to follow, and, from die analysis per­ fact, he had just been shot when he to some people when they find them­ formed by real experts, it turns out that passed in front of her. selves right in the middle of history and thete was only one position from which • She said that Jackie shouted, "My have absolutely no role in it. They this bullet could be shot: the sixth floor God, he has been shot!" imagine one. of the Texas School Book Depository. Jackie and the car's four other wit­ What can we conclude from these nesses deny that Jackie said anything. This Must Be So; I Know... examples? Certainly, that investigators • She said that she saw "some men in Imagined testimonies are just one of the must guard against preconceived ideas plain clothes shooting back." many problems diat an investigator of before starting an investigation. Before But in an interview recorded just historical mysteries has to deal with. you know it, you start twisting facts and forty minutes after the assassination Another one is "imagined experts," that discarding evidence that contradict by a Dallas television station, she was asked: "Did you sec the person is, self-styled experts with no real exper­ those ideas, making you draw un­ who fired the—" And she answered: tise in the chosen field except what they founded solutions. What we should do "No ... I didn't see any person fire think is "common sense." The Kennedy instead is to try to do our best to dig up the weapon ... I only heard it." assassination presents dozens of such facts and let them speak for themselves. • She said that she immediately cases, but one of the most popular They may have things to say that often started running after the "man with involves the so-called "magic bullet." turn out to be quite surprising. a hat," thinking he was involved in The Warren Commission that inves­ the shooting. "When I ran across This article has been adapted from Massimo the street," she specified, "the first tigated the Kennedy assassination con­ Polidoro's presentation at the fifth World motorcycle that was right behind cluded that the reactions of Kennedy the President's car nearly hit me." Skeptics Congress (Abano Terme, Italy, October and Connally occurred too close 8-10. 2004). But as can be seen in the many together for two separate shots, even pictures taken during those fatal from the same gun, to have been respon­ References moments, she stands still at her sible for their wounds. They almost Garrison, J. 1988. On the Trail of the Assassins. place as the limousine and the seem to react at the same instant, in the New York: Sheridan Square Press. Gill, P.. C. Kimpton, R. Alision-Greiner, K. enhanced version of the film seen by the motorbikes pass by. She even sits Sullivan. M. Sioneking. T. Melton, J. Nott, S. on the grass while all of the cars of commission. They concluded that one, Barritt, R. Roby, and M. Holland. 1994. the motorcade proceed behind single bullet caused the injuries to both Establishing the identity of Anna Anderson Manahani. Nature Genetics Jan; 9(1): 9-10 the President's limousine. the President and the Governor. (Erratum in: Nat Genet 1995 Feb; 9(2): 218). • She also specified that after jumping This is where the "imagined experts" Gill, P 1995. Establishing the identity of Anna into the middle of the road, she was step in and say: "It must have been a Anderson Manahan. Nature Genetics 9(1): 9—10. the first person to run up the grassy really magical bullet in order to enter Groden, R.J., and H. Livingstone. 1990. High knoll, and many followed her. Treason: Tht Assassination of President John F. Kennedy from the back, exit from his Kennedy and the New Evidence of Conspiracy. In photographs, you can see a lot of throat, dien make a turn and enter New York: Conservatory Press (Berkeley Books). people running around die area and Connallys back, exit from his chest, hit Loftus, E., and K. Ketcham. 1996. The Myth of up to the grassy knoll, but Hill always Repressed Memory: False Memories and stays in the same spot, probably is right wrist, make another bend, and, Allegations of Sexual Abuse. New York: St. shocked by the whole thing, like most finally, land in his left thigh!" How Martin's Press. of die people present. could a single bullet follow this zigzag Loftus. E. 1980. Memory. Boston: Pearson Addison-Wesley Publishing. • She was convinced diat the man she route, seen in figure 1? Polidoro, M. 2004. Grandi gialli delta storia. had followed was Jack Ruby. Their conclusion is obvious: those Milano. Italy: Edizioni Piemme. At that precise moment, Ruby was injuries could not have been produced Sloan. B.. and J. Hill. 1992. JFK: The Last Dissenting Witness. Grema. Louisiana: Pelican Books. witnessed by many to be at the offices by just one bullet, so there had to be of die Dallas Morning News. Weichhold G.M.. J.E. Bark, W. Korte. W. more than one shooter—further proof Eisenmenger, and K.M. Sullivan. 1998. DNA Now, as we can see, facts contradict of a conspiracy. analysis in the case of Kaspar Hauser. The International Journal of Legal Medicine. This conclusion, however, as logical many details of Jean Hill's dramatic tes­ 111(6): 287-91. timony. Aside from excusable mistakes as it may sound at first, does not take and errors made in good faith, we have real facts into account. And it only Further reading here a story that, over the years, has works until you don't look at Kennedys McAdams, J. Web site on the Kennedy assassination: ://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/home.htm. changed and grown out of proportion, and Connallys actual positions in the Posner, G. 1993. Case Closed: Lee Harvey Oswald to the point that Mrs. Hill became a car. They were not one in front of the and the Assassination of JFK. New York: sort of celebrity, invited to every meet­ other; Kennedy was in a higher position Anchor Books. D

24 lanuary/february 200S SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Critical Thinking About Energy The Case for Decentralized Generation of Electricity

Highly centralized generation of electrical power is a paradigm that has outlived its usefulness. Decentralized generation could save $5 trillion in capital investment, reduce power costs by 40 percent, reduce vulnerabilities, and cut greenhouse gas emissions in half. THOMAS R. CASTEN and BRENNAN DOWNES

lectricity was originally generated at remote hydro­ electric dams or by burning coal in the city centers, Edelivering electricity to nearby buildings and recy­ cling the waste heat to make steam to heat the same build­ ings. Rural houses had no access to power. Over time, coal plants grew in size, facing pressure to locate far from popu­ lation because of their pollution. Transmission wires carried the electricity many miles to users with a 10 to 15 percent loss, a difficult but tolerable situation. Because it is not prac­ tical to transmit waste heat over long distances, the heat was vented. There was no good technology available for clean, local generation, so the wasted heat was a tradeoff for cleaner air in the cities. Eventually a huge grid was developed and

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Janujry/Febrjary 2005 25 the power industry built all-new generation in remote areas, prices, and concludes that the continuing near-universal far from users. All plants were specially designed and built on acceptance of the "central generation paradigm" is wrong. site, creating economies of scale. It cost less per unit of gener­ The result is a skeptical look at the worlds largest industry— ation to build large plants than to build smaller plants. These the electric power industry—with surprising conclusions. conditions prevailed from 1910 through 1960, and everyone Power industry regulations largely derive from the unques­ in the power industry and government came to assume that tioned belief that central generation is optimal. However we remote, central generation was optimal, that it would deliver believe the conventional "central generation paradigm" is power at die lowest cost versus other alternatives. based on last century's technology. Meeting the world's grow­ However, technology has improved and natural gas distrib­ ing appetite for electric power widi conventional central gen­ ution now blankets the country. By 1970, mass-produced eration will severely tax capital markets, fossil fuel markets, engines and turbines cost less per unit of capacity than large and the global environment. The International Energy plants, and the emissions have been steadily reduced. These Agency's (IEA) 2002 World Energy Outlook Reference smaller engines and gas turbines are good neighbors, and can Case—based on present policies—presents a frightening view be located next to users in the middle of population centers. of the next thirty years.1 The Reference Case says world energy Furthermore, the previously wasted heat can be recycled from demand will grow by two-thirds, with fossil fuels meeting 90 these decentralized generation plants to displace boiler fuel percent of the increase. World electrical demand doubles, and essentially cut the fuel for electric generation in half, com­ requiring construction of nearly 5,000 gigawatts of new gen­ pared to remote or central generation of the same power. erating capacity, equivalent to adding sue times current United But the industry had ossified. Electric monopolies were allowed to charge rates to give a fair return on cap­ ital employed. To prevent excessive or monopoly profits, the utilities have long 8,000 been required to pass 100 percent of any gain in efficiency to the users. This leaves utilities with no financial incen­ tive to adopt new technologies and build decentralized generation that recycles heat. In fact, such local generation erodes the rationale for continued monopoly protection—if one can make cheap power at every factory or high rise apartment house, why should society limit competition? Congress tried to open competition a 2010 2020 2030 little bit in 1978, and some independent power companies began to develop on- | Existing Capacity New Capacity site generation wherever they could find ways around the monopoly regulation. One author (Casten) was one of those Figure 1. World installed electricity generation capacity. early pioneers, working to develop more efficient decentralized generation since 1975. This article States electric generating capacity. The generation alone will summarizes extensive research into the economically optimal cost $4.2 trillion, plus transmission and distribution (T&D) way to build new power generation in each of die past 30 costs of $6.6 trillion (2004 U.S. dollars). Under this projec­ years, given then available technology, capital costs, and fuel tion, global carbon dioxide emissions increase by 70 percent; see figure 1. Thomas R. Casten is an energy policy analyst. Chairman and Chief The Reference Case assumes that the energy policies of each Executive Officer of Primary Energy (Oak Brook, Illinois), and government in 2002 continue without change, a modest evolu­ author of Turning Off the Heat: Why American Must Double tion of technology, and continued reliance on central generation Energy Efficiency to Save Money and Reduce Global Warming of electric power, which is consistent with most existing policies (Prometheus, 1998). E-mail: [email protected]. and regulations. The IEA projections assume that central gener­ Brennan Downes is a project engineer at Primary Energy Casten ation is the optimal approach, given today's technology. adapted this article from his keynote address to the International The IEA report is silent on the need for (or capital cost of) Association for Energy Economics in Washington, D.C, July 10, new T&D, even though existing T&D is far from adequate. 2004. A somewhat different version as been published in the IAEE's There were 105 reported grid failures in the U.S. between journal The Dialogue. 2000 and 2003, and eleven of those outages affected more

26 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER than a half million people.1 U.S. consumers paid $272 billion progress after World War II drove electric-only efficiencies to for electricity in 2003,' plus power outage costs, estimated 33 percent (after distribution losses) and increased individual between S80 billion and $123 billion per year. Outages thus plant size to between 500 and 1,000 megawatts. Central or add 29 percent to 45 percent to the cost of U.S. power.' The remote generation of electricity only, while still wasting two- T&D situation is worse in developing countries, where 1.6 thirds of the input energy, became the standard. Buttressed by billion people lack any access to electric power and many oth­ monopoly protection, utilities fought competing on-site gen­ ers are limited to a few hours of service per day. Satisfying eration and, by 1970, replaced all but 3 to 4 percent of local expected load growth with central generation will clearly generation, ending waste heat recycling. Government regula­ require at least comparable construction of T&D capacity. tions, developed over the first 90 years of commercial electric­ Close examination of past power industry options and ity, institutionalized central generation. choices suggests that load growth can be met with just over half the fossil fuel and pollution associated with conventional The third wave of technical progress should have reversed central generation. We had better get this world energy expansion the central generation trend. Modern power plants emit only 1 right. Consider these points: to 2 percent as much nitrogen oxides as 1970 plants, come in all sizes, burn all fuels, and are good neighbors. Many technical • The power industry has not deployed optimal technology advances make local or distributed generation technically and over the past thirty years. economically feasible and enable society to return to energy recycling, displacing boiler fuel and doubling net electric effi­ • The universally accepted "Central Generation Paradigm" ciency. However, protected from competition and rewarded by prevents optimal energy decisions. obsolete rules, the power industry continues to build remote • Decentralized generation (DG), using the same technologies plants and ignores opportunities to recycle energy. used by remote central generation, significantly improves every key outcome from power generation. The squares in figure 2 represent the alternative to central • Meeting global load growth with decentralized energy can or remote generation. These are actual plants employing cen- save $5 trillion of capital, lower the cost of incremental power by 35-40 per­ cent, and reduce CO emissions by 50 : 100% percent versus the IEA central genera­ Power Industry Potential tion dominated reference case. 90% Efficiency Efficiency : 80% A Brief History of Electric 70% 4- 4- Generation ^^z— Figure 2 shows that United States net 60% ^^ ^ • electric efficiency peaked in about 1910, 50% when nearly all generation was located Recovered • 40% ^^^ • near users and recycled waste heat. That Heat efficiency dropped to 33 percent over the 30% next fifty years as die power industry 20% / moved to electric-only central genera­ U.S. Average tion. Industry efficiency has not 10% JS Electric Only improved in four decades. Technology " 0% improved, enabling conversion of fuel to 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 electricity to rise from 7 percent at com­ mercial inception to 33 percent by 1960. Best electric-only plants • Combined heat and power plants The best electric-only technology now converts more than 50 percent of die Figure 2. U.S. electricity generating efficiency. 1880 to present. fuel to power, but the industry's average efficiency has not improved in forty-three years. No other tral plant generation technologies that are located near users. industry wastes two-thirds of its raw material; no other indus­ These combined heat and power (CHP) plants deploy die best try has stagnant efficiency; no other industry gets less produc­ modern electric-only technology and achieve 65 percent to 97 tivity per unit output in 2004 than it did in 1904. percent net electrical efficiency by recycling normally wasted Early generating technology converted 7 percent to 20 per­ heat and by avoiding transmission and distribution losses. cent of die fuel to electricity, making electric-only production United States Energy Information Agency (EIA) records show quite expensive. To reduce fuel costs, energy entrepreneurs, 931 distributed generation plants with 72,800 megawatts of including Thomas Edison, built generating plants near ther­ capacity, about 8.1 percent of U.S. generation. These plants mal users and recycled waste heat, increasing net electric effi­ demonstrate die technical and economic feasibility of dou­ ciency to as much as 75 percent. A second wave of technical bling U.S. electricity efficiency.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 27 Nevertheless, the U.S. and world power industry ignores— focuses only on power companies' cost of capital. and indeed actively fights against—distributed generation. Figure 3 depicts our findings. The light grey line shows the Conventional central generation plants dump two-thirds of average price of power to all U.S. consumers in each year. The their energy into lakes, rivers, and cooling towers, while facto­ dashed lines show the retail price per megawatt-hour needed ries and commercial facilities burn more fuel to produce the to fully fund new plants using four power generation tech­ heat just thrown away. We believe the power industry has not nologies built as central stations, unable to recycle waste heat. made wise or efficient choices, and set out to test this thesis (Note: Move the decimal one number left in price per with data. megawatt-hour to equal cents per kilowatt-hour. For example, $65 per MWh is 6.5 cents per kWh.) The four highest solid A Flawed Worldwide Heat & Power System lines show the retail prices per megawatt-hour needed to fully To determine whether the power industry made optimal pay for power from the same technologies built near thermal choices, we analyzed EIA data on all 5,242 reported genera­ users to recycle waste heat. The two lowest solid lines depict tion plants, separating plants built by firms with monopoly- retail prices per MWh needed for power generated with recy­ protected territories and plants built by independent power cled industrial process heat or flare gas, and power extracted producers. We calculated what price per KWh would be from gas or steam pressure drop. required for each of four central genera­ tion technologies, built in each year, to provide a fair return on capital/ Average Re tail ... Oil/GaiRankine .-• Central SCG1

We also analyzed distributed genera­ Central CCGT m Central Coal Cogen SCOT tion (DG) technology choices. Several Cogen CCGT ^^ Cogen Coal •• Recycled Energy (Pressure Droo) clarifications are necessary: Recycled Energy (Thermal Recovery) 180 • Distributed generation is any electric 160 generating plant located next to users. 140 * * • DG is not a new concept. Edison built 120 his first commercial electric plant near 100 Wall Street in lower Manhattan, and 80 he recycled energy to heat surrounding a * • "' ' m^— -^=-i-~ -1"^>" " buildings. O 60 O • DG plants employ all of the technolo­ fN 40 -— ^^^^_^ gies that are used in central generation. 20 • DG plant capacities range from a few 0 —i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—r~ kilowatts to several hundred mega­ 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 watts, depending on the users' needs. We have installed 40-kilowatt back­ pressure steam turbines in office build­

ings that recycle steam pressure drop, Figure 3. Long-term U.S marginal cost of electric generation options. and managed a 200-megawatt coal- fired CHP plant serving Kodak's world headquarters in Thermal plants generate steam by burning fossil fuel in boil­ Rochester, New York. ers. The steam then drives condensing steam turbines. Thermal • DG can use renewable energy, but not every renewable generation technology matured in the mid-fifties, achieving energy plant is DG. Solar photovoltaic panels on individual maximum electric-only efficiency of 38 percent to 40 percent, buildings or local windmills are distributed generation, while before line losses. Over the entire period, new central oil and large hydro and wind farms are central generation requiring gas thermal plants (top dashed line) required prices well above transmission and distribution (T&D). average retail. Gas turbines use a different cycle; the technology • DG uses all fuels, including nuclear. Modern naval vessels improved dramatically over the period. Simple cycle gas turbine generate power with nuclear reactors and then recycle waste plants (dashed line) required similar prices to gas-fired thermal heat to displace boiler fuel. plants until 1985-90, when improving turbine efficiency Power generated near users avoids the need for T&D. We reduced fuel and lowered required prices. New coal plants have assumed each kilowatt of new DG will require net T&D (dashed black line) could sell power for below average retail investment equal to only 10 percent of a kilowatt, for backup prices each year until 1998. However, environmental rules services.'' We assume DG plants require a 50 percent higher blocked coal plants in many states. average cost of capital (12 percent versus 8 percent) due to Combined cycle gas turbine plants (CCGTs) are the same risks and transaction costs. Industrial companies that install gas turbines described above, but the plants also make steam DG sec power generation as a non-core activity and demand with the turbine exhaust to drive a second power generation 35 percent to 50 percent rates of return, but this analysis cycle—a condensing steam turbine. The first commercial

28 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER applications of CCGTs were in 1974. These plants cost less to from waste heat, flare gas, and gas or steam pressure drop after build than an oil and gas thermal plant and initially achieved credit for displacing boiler fuel with the recovered heat. These 40 percent efficiency, which rose to 55 percent by 1995. energy-recycling plants can earn fair returns on capital selling retail power at only 25 to 50 percent of average retail prices.

Power Industry Choices for New Capacity An ideal approach would build all possi­ ble plants requiring the lowest retail price per megawatt-hour first and then build plants with the next lowest needed retail price, etc. To determine whether the electric power industry made optimal choices, we analyzed all power plants built since 1973. The new generation built in each two- 10.000 ,111111 I I I I I I l_l I year period by monopolies, which we 73-74 75-76 77-78 79-80 81-82 83-84 B5-86 87-88 89-90 91-82 93-94 95-96 97-96 9*00 01-02 defined as any utility with a protected dis­ Ytir tribution territory, is seen in figure 4. Monopoly utilities include investor- I Nuclear • Coil * 08 & GM Hydro I Pumped Storage CCGT SCGT Other • Other DG owned utilities, cooperatives, municipal utilities, and state and federally owned utilities. They collectively built 435,000 Figure 4. Annual U.S. utility additions of electricity generating capacity by technology, 1973-2002. megawatts of new generation, but ignored energy recycling, even though it was Distributed Generation Recycles Energy to always the cheapest option. They continued to build oil and gas Reduce Costs thermal plants long after CCGT plants were a cheaper central The solid lines show retail prices required for distributed generation or DG—building the same technologies near thermal users and recycling nor­ mally wasted heat. The solid lines demonstrate the economic value of recy­ cling energy. Burning coal in combined heat and power plants (solid black line) saves $ 11 to $27 per MWh versus burn­ I 50.000 ing coal in new central plants. Simple « mo cycle gas turbine plants built near users (solid line) save $25 to $60 per MWh versus the same technology producing only electricity. Building combined cycle gas turbine plants near users and recycling waste heat saves even more 73-74 75-76 77-78 7*80 81-82 8344 85-86 87-89 .89-90 81-92 93-94 9596 97-99 9*00 01-02 money, reducing required costs by $25 Yea per MWh versus the same technology | • Coal Hydro • Wind v. Pit Gas a CCGT SCGT Other • Other DG | built remote from users. The lowest-cost power avoids burn­ ing any extra fossil fuel by recycling waste energy from process industries. Figure 5. Total U.S. independent power producers utility additions of electric generating capacity by Process industries use fossil fuel or elec­ technology. 1973-2002. tricity to transform raw materials and then discard energy in option. Monopoly utilities were slow to make optimal choices three forms including hot exhaust gas, flare gas, and pressure among central plant technologies and completely ignored the drop. Local "bottoming cycle" generation can recycle this more cost-effective distributed use of the same technologies. waste into heat and/or power. The two lowest solid lines show Figure 5 shows the 175,000 MW of new generation built the retail price per megawatt-hour needed for power recycled by independent power producers (IPP's) since 1973. Most new

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER lanuary/February 2005 29 '

waste energy. EPA aerometric data and other industry analyses suggest that U.S. industrial waste energy would power 40,000 to 100,000 megawatts with no incremental fossil fuel and no incremental pollution." However, EIA plant data show only 2,200 megawatts of recycled industrial energy capacity, 2.2 percent to 5 percent of the potential." It seems clear that the power industry has made poor choices that have increased cost and decreased efficiency. These data show that utilities eschewed least-cost generating technologies, effectively increasing prices to all customers.

Meeting Expected U.S. Load Growth with Local Generation Our colleagues built a model to determine the best way to sat­ isfy projected load growth for any nation over the next two Figure 6. Total generation capacity built by U.S. electric utilities, 1973-2002. decades.9 The model incorporates relevant factors for central IPP plants were distributed generation and/or combined cycle and distributed electric generation technologies, including plants until the last four years. The price spikes of 1998-2000 projected improvements in cost, efficiency, and availability of apparently induced IPP companies to install simple cycle gas each technology. The model assumes new central generation turbines for peaking. Prior to 1978 passage of the Public will require 100 percent new transmission and distribution Utility Policy Regulatory Policy Act (PURPA) it was illegal to and new decentralized generation will require new T&D equal build generation as a third party. Between 1978 and the law to 10 percent of added generating capacity. The model change in 1992, IPPs were allowed to build qualifying facili­ assumes 9 percent line losses for central power, equal to U.S. ties—those that recycled at least 10 percent of the fuel's energy losses for 2002, and 2 percent net line losses for DG power. for heat use, or utilized certain waste fuels. After 1992, IPPs Although the future surely includes some mix of central and could legally build remote electric-only generation plants. decentralized generation, the model calculates the extreme cases of meeting all load growth with central generation, or meeting For another view of industry choices, we divided plants all growth with decentralized generation. Local generation that built since 1973 into those recycling and not recycling energy. recycles energy improves every important outcome versus full Generating plants that recycle energy must be near thermal reliance on central generation. Figure 8 compares the extreme users or near sources of industrial waste energy. Figure 6 shows cases. Full reliance on DG for expected U.S. load growth would that only 1.2 percent or 5,000 of the 435,000 megawatts of avoid $326 billion in capital by 2020, reduce incremental new generation built by monopolies over the thirty-year power costs by $53 billion, NO, by 58 percent, and SO, by 94 period recycled energy. We doubt that these choices would be percent. Full DG lowers carbon dioxide emissions by 49 per­ profitable in a competitive marketplace. cent versus total reliance on new central generation. Independent power producers built 34 percent of their total capacity as DG plants, at or near users. Figure 7 depicts the mix of central and distributed power built by IPPs since 1978. Impact of Generating 2020 Load Growth with Central or Decentralized Generation

Finally, we estimated the potential generation from the 100 percent CG 100 percent DG Savings Percent Change least-cost options—those plants that recycle industrial process Total Capital Cost (Capacity + TSD) $831 $504 $326 39 percent Billions of Dollars

2020 Incremental Power Cost $145 $92 $53 6 percent Billions of Dollars

2020 Incremental Power Cost 8.61 5.47 3.14 36 percent Cents/KWh

Emissions from New Load Thousand Metric Tonnes NO. 288 122 166 58 percent SO. 333 19 314 94 percent PM10 22 12 9 43 percent

Million Metric Tonnes CO. 776 394 381 49 percent

Figure 7. Generation capacity built by U.S. electric IPPs. 1973-2002. Figure 8. Decentralized generation as a percentage of total U.S. generation.

30 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Extrapolating U.S. Analysis to the World We lack the data to run the U.S. model for the world, but have taken the per­ centage savings to be directionally cor­ Pollution rect and applied them to the IEA load growth projections through 2030. Detailed analysis by others will undoubt­ edly refine the estimates, and there will be some mix of central and decentralized generation. The analysis shows the extreme cases to provide guidance. ^rfl^ 33% Figure 9 shows expected world load Fuel Qj fr -g^ Delivered growth with conventional central plants 100% gi_» Electricity that convert 100 units of fuel into 67 units of wasted energy and 33 units of Generation: Transmission: T8rD and Transformers (to End Users): delivered power. The text at the bottom $890 / kW $1,380/kW $2,495 / kW reflects IEA's projected capital cost for 4,800 GW worldwide 4,800 GW 4,368 GW 4,800 gigawatts of new generation, total­ $4.2 trillion $6.6 trillion / $10.8 trillion ing $4.2 trillion. The International Energy Agency was silent on T&D, so we used estimates made for the United States Figure 9. Conventional central generation flowchart. Department of Energy on the all-in cost per kW of new transmission to forecast $6.6 trillion cost for new wires and trans­ formers. Assuming U.S. average line Pollution losses (which are significandy lower than developing country line losses), 9 percent 10% Waste Heat, No T&D Loss of die capacity will be lost, leaving 4,368 gigawatts delivered to users. To achieve the IEA Reference Case with central gen­ eration, the world must invest SI0.8 tril­ Fuel lion capital, roughly $2,500 per kW of 100% delivered capacity. Meeting IEA Reference Case load Chilled growth with decentralized generation will Water (At or Near Thermal Users) lower the need for redundant generauon. An analysis by the Carnegie Mellon Generation: Transmission: To End Users $1,200/kW $138/kW (10% cap. $1,338/kW Electric Industry Center suggests building 4,368 GW 0.44 GW DG 4,368 GW only 78 percent of die 4,800 gigawatts as World Cost: $5.2 trillion $600 billion $5.8 trillion $5.0 trillion DG would provide equal or better reliabil­ DG vs. CG: [$1.0 trillion] S6.0 trillion / ity.10 However, in developing economies, reliability may not be die driver. To be conservative, we have ignored the poten­ Figure 10. Combined heat and power flowchart. tial reduction in generation due to case requires only 430 GW of new T&D, costing $0.6 trillion, increased reliability inherent in larger numbers of smaller plants in a $6 trillion savings on T&D. End users receive 4,638 GW in the DG case. However, we did reduce required generation for die both cases, but society invests $5 trillion less for the DG case. DG case to 4,368 GW, since there are no net line losses. Figure 10 depicts the process of meeting expected world Everyone knows that "you get what you pay for." What load growth with distributed generation. We estimated average does the world give up by selecting a $5 trillion cheaper capital costs for decentralized generation of $1,200 per kW. approach to meet projected electric growth? We extrapolated $310 more capital cost than a kilowatt of new central genera­ U.S. analysis to the IEA Reference Case and found the world tion. Even with 9 percent less DG capacity, the capital costs would give up the following by adopting the cheaper DG case: for generation increase to $5.2 trillion, $1.0 trillion more than building central plants. Looking only at generation costs, DG • Consume 122 billion fewer barrels of oil equivalent (half of is not competitive. However, the hill decentralized generation known Saudi oil reserves)

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 31 • Lost fossil fuel sales of $2.8 trillion could enact a Fossil Fuel Efficiency Standard covering all • Lost medical revenues from air pollution-related illnesses locally used electricity, regardless of origin. This standard does • Potentially lost savings if governments opt to supply electric not favor fuels, technologies, or participants. Here are the services to entire population instead of leaving 1.4 billion essential elements: people without electric access • Give all delivered megawatt-hours an equal allowance • Less global warming due to 50 percent less CO, emissions. of incremental fossil fuel, regardless of age of plant, Recommended Actions technology or ownership. Start with the national aver­ age fossil fuel per MWh for the prior year. If this analysis survives critical review, then what policy • Spread allowances over all generation of each owner, reforms will steer the power industry toward optimal deci­ allowing owners to comply by increasing efficiency sions, given available technology? We offer two potential of existing plants, deploying new highly efficient approaches, hoping to start the policy debate. plants, or purchasing fossil allowances from others. • Reward plants requiring little or no fos­ sil fuel, such as solar, wind, hydro, nuclear, and industrial waste energy recycling, by allowing them to sell fos­ Distributed generation of electricity sil fuel credits.1' saves the world $5 trillion in capital • Penalize fossil inefficient plants by forcing them to purchase allowances investment while reducing power costs by for each MWh produced. 40 percent and cutting greenhouse • Base allowances on delivered power to incorporate T&D losses from central gas emissions in half. There are important generation. implications for worldwide energy • Credit displaced fuel to CHP plants that recycle heat. policy if this analysis is correct. • Force all generators to purchase ade­ quate allowances or close their plants to ensure that the total allowance trad­ ing is economically neutral. • Reduce die fossil fuel allowances per Comprehensive Reform MWh each year according to a schedule. • Adjust the schedule downward each year to correct for Governments guide the electric industry with many rules, growth in total power delivered, guaranteeing that the mandates, and limitations that collectively block competition total fossil fuel use will drop. and innovation, thus causing excessive costs and fuel usage. Small regulatory changes may nudge the power industry to A Fossil Fuel Efficiency Standard would steer the power slight course corrections, but are unlikely to break the central industry toward optimal choices. This will reduce power costs generation paradigm and optimize generation. and emissions, which will improve local standard of living and Immediately eliminating all current barriers to efficiency improve the competitive position of local industry. Other would cause the electric power industry to make better deci­ states and nations will follow suit. sions. Each government could examine every rule that affects power generation and delivery and ask whether the social Conclusion purpose behind that rule still exists. Then each state or coun­ We have attempted to frame the consequences of meeting try could enact comprehensive legislation that we term the energy load growth with conventional central generation or Energy Regulatory Reform and Tax Act (ERRATA), to cor­ deploying decentralized generation that recycles waste energy. rect all of the mistakes in current law. ERRATA would dereg­ The DG case saves the world S5 trillion in capital investment ulate all electric generation and sales, modernize environ­ while reducing power costs by 40 percent and cutting green­ mental regulations to induce efficiency, and change taxation house gas emissions in half. There are interesting implications to reward efficiency." Sadly, ERRATA legislation probably for worldwide energy policy if this analysis stands up to criti­ will not pass except in response to deepening environmental cal review. and economic pain. We hope readers and others will spell out concerns or sug­ gest corrections so we can collectively improve die analysis of Actionable Reform. National Fossil Fuel Efficiency optimal future power generation. The needed policy changes Standards are deep and fundamental and require a consensus about die A second possible approach simply rewards all fossil efficient best way to proceed. Together we might be able to change the power and penalizes fossil inefficient power. Each government way the world makes heat and power.

32 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Notes loss of power is found by multiplying expected unit unplanned outages by each other. Given the existing 10.286 genctators operating in the U.S. that are 1. The IEA has issued an annual "World Energy Oudook" scries since 1993. less than 20 megawatts of capacity, and the expectation, with barriers The publication projects many facets of the energy industry thirty years ahead. removed, of many DG plants inside every distribution network, spare grid The projections arc based on a "Reference Scenario that takes into account only capacity equal to 10 percent of installed DG should be more than adequate to those government policies and measures that had been adopted by mid-2002. A cover unplanned outages. separate Alternative Scenario assesses the impact of a range of new energy and environmental policies that the OECD countries arc considering." 7. Recycled Energy: An Untapped Resource. Casten and Collins. 2002; see www.primarycncrgy.com. 2. Energy Information Administration/Electric Power Monthly, May 2004. 8. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2002, 3. Energy Information Administration/Monthly Energy Review, June 2004. October 2003. 4. Joseph Eto, of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in a speech 9. The "Optimizing Heat and Power" model has been adopted by the to NARUC, says outages cost the U.S. S80 billion per year. The EPRI World Alliance for Decentralized Energy (WADE) and is being used by the Consortium for Electric Infrastructure to Support a Digital Society (CEIDS), The Cost of Power Disturbances to Industrial & Digital Economy Companies. European Union, Thailand, Nigeria, Canada. Ireland, and China to ask the June 2001, states power outages and other power quality disturbances are cost­ best way to satisfy expected load growth. For model descriptions, contact ing the U.S. economy more than S119 annually. Michael Brown. Director, at [email protected]. 10. Hisham Zerriffi. Personal communication. See Distributed Resources 5. We assembled historical data for four central generating technologies— oil and gas-fired thermal plants (Rankine cycle), coal fired thermal plants, sim­ and Micro-grids by M. Granger Morgan of the Department of Engineering ple-cycle and combined-cycle gas turbines. Data for each technology and each and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Sept. 25, 2003. for detailed year include capital costs per kW. load factor, and efficiency. We assumed a 25- analysis of how DG provides reliability with less spare capacity. year life to calculate annual capital amortization and the future wholesale price 11. Sec Casten, Thomas R. Turning Off The Heat 1998, Prometheus per MWh that would yield an 8 percent weighted average return on capital. Books, chapter 10 for a more complete description of ERRATA. Since new central generation requires new T&D. we convened estimates of 12. Producers of electricity are given fossil foci usage credits, meaning they SI 260 per kW for T&D in 2000 and adjusted for inflation, then assumed a ate allowed to use a given amount of fossil fuels corresponding to efficiency, 35-year life for T&D to calculate required T&D charges. EIA did not keep size of unit and other environmental parameters. Thus, the higher the effi­ line loss statistics prior to 1989. so we estimated prior years slightly below the ciency of a company's unit, the less fossil foci credits that company needs to current 9 percent losses. Summing produces the retail price needed for power use. The highly efficient plants and generation plants using a non-fossil foci from a central plant using a specific technology installed in that specific year. energy such as solar, wind, or hydro power would not need the foil allowance Finally, we converted everything to 2004 dollars. and could sell the unused portion to less efficient fossil fueled plants. Such a 6. Typical DG plants employ multiple generators with expected system would provide added economic value to the efficient and non-fossil unplanned outages of 2 percent to 3 percent each. The probability of complete furled plants and economic penalties to the inefficient fossil fueled plants. •

Glossary of Abbreviations and Acronyms

CCGT—Combined-cycle gas turbine—refers to a power IEA—International Energy Agency—a twenty-six member plant that utilizes both the Brayton (gas-turbine) cycle and union of national governments with the goal of securing the Rankine (steam) cycle. The exhaust from the gas tur­ global power supplies. bine is used to generate the energy for the Rankine cycle. IPP—Independent power producers—companies that gen­ CHP—Combined heat and power—the simultaneous and erate electrical power and provide it wholesale to the high-efficiency production of heat and electrical power in power market. IPPs own and operate their stations as non- a single process. utilities and do not own the transmission lines. CO,—Carbon dioxide—a gas produced by many organic KW—Kilowatt—1,000 watts (one watt being the amount processes, including human respiration and the decay or of power necessary to move one kilogram one meter in combustion of animal and vegetable matter. one second). DG—Decentralized/distributed generation—a system in KWh—Kilowatt hour—the amount of energy available which electrical power is produced and distributed locally from one kilowatt in one hour. near users, largely avoiding T&D. MW—Megawatt—one million watts. DOE—Department of Energy—the federal agency that MWh—Megawatt hour—the amount of energy available oversees the production and distribution of electricity and from one megawatt in one hour. other forms of energy. NO,—Nitrogen oxide—assorted oxides of nitrogen, gener­ EIA—Energy Information Administration—the statistical ally considered pollutants, that are commonly produced and data-gathering arm of the Department of Energy. by combustion reactions. EPA—Environmental Protection Agency—the agency that PM10—Particulate matter in the atmosphere that is oversees and regulates the impact of, among other things, between 2.5 and 10 micrometers in size. the production of energy on the environment of the PURPA—Public Utility Regulatory Policy Act—an act of United States. Congress that was intended to reduce American depen­ ERRATA—Energy Regulatory Reform and Tax Act—a plan dence on foreign oil through the encouragement of the to deregulate the production and distribution of electric­ development of alternative energy sources and the diver­ ity, to update environmental laws regarding energy pro­ sification of the power industry. duction, and to alter the existing tax structures. T&D—Transmission and distribution—the means by which GW—Gigawatt—one billion watts. electricity travels from the generating plant(s) to its end GWh—Gigawatt hour—the amount of energy available users. from one gigawatt in one hour.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 33 Exploring Controversies in the Art and Science of Polygraph Testing

Polygraph testing has always been controversial, with a wide gulf separating practitioners from scientists with relevant expertise. Myths about its alleged objectivity and infallibility stem from a failure to recognize that the polygraph simply records physiological responses and that the validity with which deception can be diagnosed depends on the nature of the examination and its social context.

JOHN RUSCIO

olygraph or "lie detector" tests have been conducted extensively in the United States since the early twenti­ Peth century, with comparatively little popularity else­ where. The technique has been used to aid in criminal inves­ tigations, civil disputes, and the screening of job applicants and current employees. Polygraph testing has been contro­ versial since its inception, with a substantial gulf separating practitioners from scientists with expertise in psychophysiol- ogy, measurement, decision making, and related disciplines. Aside from a trend toward computerized recording and scor­ ing of polygraph charts, there has been little fundamental change in the technology or its implementation in the past fifty years, and a number of widespread myths persist despite

34 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER the lack of noteworthy advances in the field. Among the lay alarmed or aroused by questions that imply wrongdoing, and public, the press, and policy makers, confusion about the the fact that examinees recognize that they may be fined, fired, alleged objectivity and infallibility of polygraph testing often imprisoned, or otherwise sanctioned based on their responses stems from a failure to recognize that the polygraph is simply to key questions can often cause them to exhibit many of the a device to record physiological responses and that the validity behavioral and physiological reactions often believed to be with which deception can be diagnosed from such responses uniquely indicative of deception. In its review of the polygraph depends on the nature of the examination that is performed literature, the NRC (2003) faulted proponents for failing to and its social context. My goal in this article is to dispel some establish a plausible theoretical base linking polygraph of these myths by describing the different types and uses of responses to deception or to draw from relevant basic science polygraph tests, as well as empirical findings and additional research to measure those physiological processes that are considerations bearing on the vaJidity and utility of those tests. likely to yield the greatest validity. For example, certain mea­ sures of brain activity show considerable promise as physiolog­ Two Pervasive Myths of Polygraph Testing ical responses that are less susceptible to countermeasures Many people perceive polygraph testing to be an objective way because of their rapidity and automaticity, yet there is litde to distinguish honesty from deception, a scientific practice that ongoing research to suggest a serious interest in improving is carried out in an impartial manner. The gadgetry of die stan­ polygraph technology (NRC 2003). dard polygraph device—which measures electrodermal, cardio­ A second myth involves alleged infallibility of polygraph vascular, and respiratory responses—may be responsible for this testing, the notion that the technique can be used to distin­ scientific mystique, yet with the exception of one type of appli­ guish honesty from deception without error. Proponents cation, polygraph testing has been developed and promoted derive much of their confidence from understandable but seri­ primarily by nonscientists (Lykken 1998). A polygraph exami­ ously flawed inferences. For example, Lykken (1998) cites a nation involves a lengthy pretest interview during which the statement made by one polygrapher who testified before the examiner gains access to a wealth of background information Minnesota legislature in 1975 that he'd given more than 20,000 and formulates specific questions that are then used during the polygraph tests and had "never been shown to have made a mis­ test phase, when physiological responses are recorded. The type take" (69). Because polygraph tests are ordinarily administered of questions that are constructed and the interpersonal manner when other evidence is weak, one may never know with reasonable with which they are posed can have a significant influence on the examinee's physiological responses. Moreover, the scoring and interpretation of the polygraph chart also require subjective judgments that can be influenced by an examiner's preconcep­ tions, and there remains a critical need for well-validated com­ He's lying J puterized scoring and interpretive systems. An expose" on private polygraph firms aired by 60 Minutes in 1986 underscores the subjectivity of the process and its suscepti­ bility to confirmation bias due to the contamination of an exam­ iner's diagnosis with information obtained outside of the formal He's telling the polygraph test. As summarized by Ben-Shakhar (1991, 236):

Three different polygraph firms were independently called to truth. test an alleged theft of a camera and lens from a photography magazine office employing four employees. In fact, nothing was stolen from the office, but the polygraph examiners were told that it could only have been done by one of the four employees. Each polygraph examiner was told that "it might have been ," with a different employee being fingered in each case (a decidedly weak fingering). In each case, the poly­ graph examiner identified the "fingered" employee as decep­ tive, and cleared the other "suspects." Moreover, all polygraph examiners expressed complete confidence in their decisions. This demonstrates not only that polygraph examiners can go wrong, but that their judgment and decision-making processes are infected by a systematic and powerful source of bias, a bias caused by contamination.

In addition to potential biases in the administration and interpretation of a polygraph test, it is important to note that there are no unique physiological indices of deception (Lykken 1998; National Research Council [NRC) 2003). A number of psychological states influence the processes measured by the polygraph. For example, even innocent suspects may be

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 35 certainty whether the examinee was in fact guilty of the alleged initial diagnosis of deception (even if purely by chance). misconduct; that is, "ground trurh" remains unknown. To the Likewise, it is essential that those who score and interpret the extent that polygraph results are taken to be definitive, further polygraph charts remain blind to outside information relevant investigation is seldom undertaken to determine the validity of to the case. Otherwise, there is no way to determine whether the inferences drawn from polygraph tests. examiners are making diagnoses on the basis of case facts avail­ Another flawed source of intuitively compelling support able without the polygraph test or on the basis of the polygraph stems from the fact that many examinees make confessions or chart itself.1 To date, no field study has been conducted that offer damning admissions after an examiner suggests that their meets even these minimal standards of scientific objectivity. responses were deceptive. Such confessions are insufficient to So just how accurate are polygraph tests? In light of the pre­ establish the validity, much less the infallibility, of the poly­ sent evidence, it is extremely difficult to reach a defensible judg­ graph test itself for at least two reasons. First, many confessions ment and virtually impossible to summarize the results with a themselves are false statements, perhaps offered in an attempt single numerical estimate. The National Research Council to mitigate the consequences of having failed the polygraph (2003) conducted a thorough review of the empirical literature test. In some instances, examinees' own faith in the infallibil­ on polygraph testing. Although they found the internal and ity of the polygraph has caused them to doubt the accuracy of external validity of the studies performed to date to be generally their own memory, supposing that they must be guilty of the quite weak, especially for field studies, they concluded that poly­ alleged offense even if they cannot recall it (Lykken 1998). graph testing can achieve results significantly better than chance, A second problem with using confessions as the criterion but far from perfect. Thus, despite decades of widespread use against which to evaluate the validity of polygraph testing is and ample opportunity to conduct informative laboratory and that this introduces a substantial bias. A study by Murray field studies, the quality of polygraph research remains low and (1989) nicely illustrates this flawed logic. Of the 552 actual claims of infallibility or near infallibility remain unsupported. criminal suspects given polygraph tests, 239 (43%) were diag­ nosed as deceptive and were pressed for confessions; 104 Uses and Types of Polygraph Tests (44%) of these individuals confessed, and 3 other individuals Broadly speaking, polygraph tests are used for two primary were later cleared by the confessions of other suspects. The 313 purposes: in investigating specific incidents (e.g., crimes, secu­ suspects diagnosed as nondeceptive were not pressed for con­ rity violations) and for screening (e.g., evaluating the honesry fessions, but 18 (6%) of them were cleared by subsequent con­ of prospective or current employees). Although there are sub­ fessions of others. Noting that only 3 errors had been docu­ tle variations, two primary types of polygraph tests are used: mented (the individuals diagnosed deceptive who were later the control question test (CQT; Raskin and Honts 2002) and cleared by others' confessions), Murray reported an accuracy of the guilty knowledge test (GKT; Lykken 1959; Nakayama 99.4% for the polygraph. This conclusion is entirely unwar­ 2002; also known as the "concealed information test"). I will ranted, as it presumes that the remaining 132 individuals diag­ explore in turn the use of each type of test for each purpose. nosed deceptive who did not confess were in fact guilty and that the remaining 295 individuals diagnosed honest who did Specific Incidents not confess were in fact innocent, yet there was no indepen­ When an examinee is suspected of having engaged in a partic­ dent corroboration of any individual's guilt or innocence. To ular act of misconduct, polygraph testing can be performed see just how illogical Murray's conclusion is, consider the fact using either type of test. For a CQT, the examiner constructs that equal (or perhaps even superior) results may have been a series of questions that includes items relevant to the specific obtained by tossing a coin to diagnose deception rather than incident (e.g., "Did you steal $2,000 from your employer?") actually scoring and interpreting the polygraph charts. and items intended to serve as a point of comparison (e.g., Roughly half of all suspects would be diagnosed deceptive by "Since the age of eighteen, have you ever lied to get out of the coin toss, and a substantial proportion would no doubt trouble?"). The latter questions are designed to be psychologi­ have confessed (keeping in mind that the base rate of guilt in cally arousing to most examinees, with the presumption that this sample was quite high). Likewise, among the half of all anyone would need to lie (rather than overtly admit to past suspects diagnosed honest by the coin toss, some would later dishonesty, which would be perceived as incriminating in its be cleared by the confessions of others. own right) because of the ubiquity of at least minor acts of dis­ The proper way to calculate the empirical accuracy of poly­ honesty in everyone's past. Such items are often referred to as graph testing is to establish ground truth with reasonable cer­ "control" questions, although they do not provide reasonable tainty and tally the results for tests administered to all exami­ controls in the scientific sense of the term. nees, not simply the subsample whose confessions support the The rationale underlying die interpretation of a COT is that guilty individuals will be more aroused by the relevant than the John Ruscio, Ph.D., is an associate professor of psychology at control items, whereas innocent individuals will be more aroused Elizabethtown College, One Alpha Drive, Elizabethtown, PA by the control than the relevant items. Unfortunately, the pre­ 17022. His research interests are in the areas of statistical meth­ sumed directionality of these responses reflects a naive under­ ods for classification research and the psychology of judgment and standing of psychology. Because the relevant and control ques­ decision making. His e-mail address is [email protected]. tions are discussed and agreed upon by the examiner and

36 January/Februaiy 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER examinee during die pretest interview, diey are easily distin­ 2003). In stark contrast to the CQT, it is noteworthy that the guished during the test phase. This has two consequences, bodi GKT provides excellent protection for innocent suspects of which tend to undermine die validity of the CQT. First, bodi because the rate of false-positive identifications can be mini­ innocent and guilty suspects recognize which questions are mized by using a large number of items and setting a stringent important for dieir futures, and are likely to feel considerably threshold for diagnosing the possession of guilty knowledge. more direatened by the relevant questions. Not surprisingly, Field studies of die GKT are badly needed, but for reasons I'll many studies of die CQT reveal an alarmingly high rate of false- discuss shortly law enforcement agencies have been uncooper­ positive diagnoses of deception: It is not uncommon for 40 per­ ative widi scientists who wish to perform such studies. cent to 50 percent of innocent suspects to fail a CQT polygraph The rationale underlying die GKT is based on the well- examination (Lykken 1998; NRC 2003). Second, whedier inno­ established nature of an "orienting response." This is similar to the cent or guilty, savvy examinees can take advantage of any num­ so-called "cocktail party effect" whereby one's attention is auto­ ber of countermeasures to systematically increase dieir physio­ matically drawn to familiar information, such as hearing your logical responses to die control questions, diereby passing die own name spoken at a crowded cocktail party. It is especially dif­ test. Lykken notes diat laboratory studies have shown diat college ficult to suppress such a response to familiarity, and it would be students can be trained to beat this type of polygraph test in difficult to systematically increase one's physiological response to under an hour. One can only suppose diat individuals facing seri­ all of die incorrect alternatives. To do so would require a large ous consequences on the basis of real-life polygraph tests would number of self-induced increases and decreases in arousal. This be especially motivated to learn and practice countermeasures would be difficult to effect repeatedly and would lead to two addi­ prior to dieir examinations. tional problems. First, employing countermeasures a great many Whereas the CQT is based on several implausible assump­ times may tip off a skilled examiner, thereby signaling the inten­ tions (Lykken 1998) and nonedieless predominates in practice, tion to deceive. Second, it may be possible to detect statistical dif­ die GKT has been developed by scientists and holds much ferences in physiological responding if die smallest response con- greater promise for die investigation of specific incidents. Rather sistendy coincides with the correct alternative or if fa fewer max­ dian attempting to determine die trudifiilness of an examinee's imal responses coincide with the correct alternatives than would responses to relevant items, this technique aims to assess whedier be expected by chance. In other words, the successful use of coun­ an examinee possesses knowledge to which only a guilty individ­ termeasures requires that one establish a genuinely chance-level ual would have access. To do so, a series of multiple-choice ques­ pattern of responding, which would be exceedingly difficult. tions is constructed such diat one choice is correct and die odi- Aldiough detractors have argued that the GKT may be applic­ ers are equally plausible to an innocent suspect. For example, one able to only a small proportion of specific incident investigations, item relevant to a murder investigation could include a number diis remains an open question. For example, if police investigators of potential murder weapons, another could include descriptions began collecting information specifically for die construction of a of the victim's clothing at the time of the attack, and so forth. A GKT as soon as they arrived on die scene of a crime, and if diey total of six choices are usually provided for each question, with successfully withhold information from the news media (derails the correct alternative positioned randomly among the latter five incidental to die story, yet salient to die perpetrator, could feasibly choices (due to primacy effects, die first choice is not scored). be kept secret), it may be possible to use die GKT quite often. In The examinee is asked to repeat each of diese choices out loud, fact, die technique is being used regularly in Japan (Nakayama which may serve to thwart potential countermeasures based on 2002). It appears diat die primary obstacle to implementing die self-induced competing thoughts, and a score is calculated based GKT in die United States is diat police officers and die polygra- on the frequency widi which die maximal physiological response phers they employ are too convinced of die validity of die CQT. coincides with the correct alternative. An examinee who consis- Anodier potential problem: Whereas die CQT was developed and tendy responds most strongly to the correct choices is judged to has been promoted by the law enforcement agencies, the GKT was possess knowledge of die incriminating information, whereas an developed and is widely endorsed by psychological scientists. Thus, examinee who responds to die correct choices at chance levels is an unfortunate turf batde may contribute to the reluctance to per­ judged not to possess this knowledge. form field studies of the GKT in the U.S.—scientists need the The larger the number of good items, the more accurately cooperation of the police to conduct such research. Finally, a large- one can draw conclusions from a GKT. A good item is one for scale switch from the CQT to the GKT may represent an admis­ which the correct choice is salient to a guilty individual, but all sion diat law enforcement agencies have long been using a flawed choices are equally plausible to innocent individuals. One can technique, and diis may also call into question convictions diat pilot-test candidate GKT items on known-innocent examinees were based in pan on polygraph evidence. to evaluate the latter criterion, but the former may be more difficult to establish. The guilty individual must have noticed Screening the relevant stimulus at the time of the incident and remem­ Polygraph testing is also used to screen prospective or current ber it during the polygraph test. To the extent that a large employees. Under certain circumstances, it may be possible to number of good items can be constructed, a GKT can differ­ use the GKT to screen employees suspected of committing a entiate those who do and do not possess die incriminating particular misdeed. In such "focused screening" applications, information with impressive accuracy (Beh-Shakhar and Elaad polygraph testing could proceed as it does in the context of

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 37 specific incident investigations. In the majority of screening not have the resources to perform the required follow-up applications, however, no particular transgression is suspected. investigations, and there arc a number of problems with revok­ Pre-employment screening and either regular (e.g., every five ing security clearances for all those who fail their tests. On the years) or aperiodic (i.e., random time intervals) employee other hand, setting a stringent threshold will reduce the num­ screening is performed to assess the honesty of employees with­ ber of false-positive polygraph results, but at the cost of out reference to any alleged or suspected specific incident in decreasing the odds of identifying the actual culprit and order to predict the likelihood that an examinee will perform thereby defeating the purpose of the screening. Clearly, neither acceptably on the job. Given the substantial problems of option is appealing, and the only way to improve matters is to employee theft, sabotage, security violations, or other cosdy or develop an investigative tool more valid than polygraph testing dangerous misdeeds, past misconduct or dishonesty may suggest or to restrict its use to situations in which the base rate of a risky hire or die need to terminate an employee. Because no deception is not prohibitively low. specific incident is involved in these types of screening, the Another challenge for polygraph testing involves the high- GKT cannot be used, and tests analogous to the CQT must be stakes nature of many situations in which one wishes to diagnose constructed. Physiological responses to questions pertaining to a deception. For example, a spy may be highly motivated to learn number of different areas—such as general honesty or past mis­ and practice effective countermeasures in anticipation of subse­ conduct such as theft or drug use—serve as points of compari­ quent polygraph screening. Convicted spy Aldrich Ames passed son for one another. The use of more general questions likely several polygraph screening tests during his career at the CIA, decreases the magnitude of any differences in responding, and which may have allayed suspicions of his misconduct far longer such differences are interpretationally ambiguous in any event than would otherwise have been die case. Thus, when polygraph because questions about some topics may be inherently more screening is used to clear individuals of suspicion, normal secu­ threatening or arousing to particular examinees for any number rity precautions may be relaxed due to the false sense of security of reasons. Both of these problems are likely to substantially provided by the test results. The NRC highlighted mis danger weaken the validity of such screening tests (NRC 2003). and advised caution in the use of polygraph testing for security Despite decades of use by private employers and govern­ screening. In contrast, innocent suspects may falsely believe in ment agencies, no field studies have evaluated the accuracy of the validity of the polygraph and be less likely to engage in coun­ screening tests in a manner that meets minimal scientific termeasures and dierefore more susceptible to failing polygraph research standards (NRC 2003), and their use is therefore tests. Or, the scrupulously honest individuals that one would based on unsupported presumptions of utility. There is also no wish to hold top-level security clearances may fear false-positive evidence to suggest that prior misdeeds are in fact useful pre­ polygraph results and the damaging effects on their careers and dictors of future misconduct. For example, admissions of ille­ choose to pursue other lines of work. Agencies that use polygraph gal drug use are commonly elicited by polygraph screening, testing for security screening purposes have suffered immeasur­ but there is no evidence bearing on the extent to which they ably from the flight of qualified employees who fear the reper­ predict the future thefts, sabotage, or security violations that cussions of false accusations as well as an accompanying loss of the polygraph screening is intended to prevent. morale among the employees who remain (NRC 2003).

Further Difficulties of Polygraph Testing Conclusions Particularly in screening contexts, there may be an extremely As any proponent will quickly attest, polygraph testing has low base rate of deception, which mathematically guarantees a proven useful in eliciting confessions and admissions of large number of false-positive test results. For example, in the wrongdoing. This provides considerable support for the utility event that classified intelligence information is shared with a of such testing as an investigative tool even if the tests diem- foreign power, there may be many individuals who had access selves are of imperfect validity. However, such benefits are off­ to the information, only one of whom engaged in espionage. set by a number of other weaknesses that suggest caution in Screening all available suspects will inevitably yield many false drawing conclusions from any polygraph tests that fail to pro­ accusations, and may in fact fail to identify the guilty individ­ duce such confessions. Moreover, it is essential to verify the ual. Altering the direshold for diagnosing deception presents accuracy of a confession elicited by a polygraph test. policy makers with a choice between two unpleasant alterna­ In 1993, the U.S. Supreme Court established criteria for the tives. On the one hand, setting a low threshold will increase admissibility of scientific evidence, including general accep­ the chances of correctly diagnosing deception in the examina­ tance of the relevant theory and technique within the appro­ tion of the guilty individual, yet it will also increase the num­ priate scientific discipline, a known or probable error rate that ber of false-positive results. All those who fail their tests will be is satisfactory, standards that maximize the validity of a tech­ indistinguishable by the polygraph alone, necessitating a large nique in practice, and publication in peer-reviewed scientific number of thorough investigations. As the NRC report notes, journals (Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, 1993). in the context of a low base rate and an assessment tool with Whereas a strong case has been made for the inadmissibility of as poor specificity as polygraph tests, it is easily possible that CQT results as evidence in court under the Daubert guidelines one might falsely implicate hundreds of innocent individuals in (Saxe and Ben-Shakhar 1999), pending successful field valida­ order to potentially identify die lone culprit. An agency may tion an equally strong case may be made for the admissibility

38 January/February 200S SKEPTICAL INQUIRER of GKT results (Ben-Shakhar, Bar-Hillel, and Kremnitzer tion of polygraph techniques as well as training practitioners 2002). Interestingly, most states prohibit admission of poly­ and promoting the use of the polygraph. Open scientific com­ graph evidence in civil and criminal cases, but many individu­ munication of research is also important, with results to be als foolishly stipulate to the admission of test results. For classified only when absolutely necessary to maintain national example, in a criminal case that a district attorney wishes to security. Above all, polygraph results should be interpreted close due to a lack of sufficient evidence or promising leads, a with far greater caution than is currently evident, and policy deal may be offered that many defendants find attractive: The makers should pay increased attention to the inhetent trade­ charges will be dismissed if the suspect passes a polygraph test, offs of false-positive and false-negative identifications that but the test results will be admissible in court in the event that stem from shifts in the threshold used to diagnose deception. the suspect fails. Believing in the validity of the test and hop­ The research program outlined above, along with a proper ing to bring the ordeal of pending prosecution to an end, recognition of the strengths and limitations of the psy­ many suspects accept such an offer and are then surprised chophysiological detection of deception, is essential to under­ when they fail the test and thereby provide the state with evi­ take a realistic assessment of the utility of polygraph testing. dence that many jurors find persuasive. Likewise, disputants in civil suits (e.g., both parents vying for custody of their children References in a divorce) will sometimes agree to each take a polygraph Ben-Shakhar, Gershon. 1991. Clinical judgment and decision-making in CQT-polygraphy: A comparison with other pseudoscientific applications test, with both sets of results stipulated in advance to be admis­ in psychology. Integrative Physiological and Behavioral Science 26: sible. This, too, often turns out to be a foolish bargain. One 232-240. can reasonably wonder whether other evidence of dubious Ben-Shakhar. Gershon, Maya Bar-Hillel, and Mordechai Kremnirzer. 2002. Trial by polygraph: Reconsidering the use of the guilty knowledge tech­ validity should be allowed into the court record merely nique in court. Law and Human Behavior 26: 527—541. because both parties stipulate to it in advance (e.g., could the Ben-Shakhar, Gershon, and Eitan Elaad. 2003. The validity of psychophysio­ toss of a coin be used instead?). logical detection of deception with the guilty knowledge test: A meta-ana­ lytic review. Journal of Applied Psychology 88: 131-151. In 1988, the federal Employee Polygraph Protection Act Daubert. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals. Inc. 1993. 509 U.S. 579. prohibited most private employers from using polygraph test­ Lykken, David T. 1959. The GSR in die detection of guilt. Journal of Applied ing as a screening tool. Private firms, often the same ones that Psychology 43: 385-388. . 1998. A Tremor in the Blood Uses and Abuses of the Lie Detector. New formerly administered large numbers of polygraph tests, have York: Plenum Trade. responded to fill this niche by offering paper-and-pencil hon­ Murray, Kenneth E. 1989. Movement recording chairs: A necessity? Polygraph esty tests or voice stress analyzers that may be of even poorer 18: 15-23. Nakayama, Makoro. 2002. Practical use of die concealed information test for validity (Lykken 1998; NRC 2003). However, it is curious criminal investigation in Japan. In Murray Kleiner (Ed.), Handbook of that law enforcement, military, and government agencies were Polygraph Testing. San Diego: Academic Press. exempted from the prohibition on polygraph testing: A tech­ National Research Council. 2003. The Polygraph and Lie Detection. Washington, D.C.: National Academics Press. nique judged unsuitable for screening applicants to the local Raskin, David C, and Charles R. Honts. 2002. The Comparison Question convenience store is still used to screen individuals responsible Test. In Murray Kleiner (Ed.), Handbook of Polygraph Testing San Diego: for maintaining our national security. It is time to carefully Academic Press. Saxe, Leonard, and Gershon Ben-Shakhar. 1999. Admissibility of polygraph weigh the costs and benefits of polygraph screening in each tests: The application of scientific standards post-Daubert. Psychology, particular context in which its use is being contemplated. The Public Policy, and Law 5: 203-223. advantage of eliciting confessions and damning admissions must be considered against disadvantages such as invasions of Note privacy, damage to employee morale, the cost of investigating 1. Even this precaution does not guard against the possibility that exam­ iners may construct or pose questions in a manner that biases physiological large numbers of false-positive results and the accompanying responses toward apparent deception or honesty in accordance with their pre­ harm that is done to qualified individuals' careers, the possi­ conceptions, but it docs represent a minimally acceptable scientific procedure bility that the most dangerous individuals may be likely to for evaluating the validity of conclusions drawn from polygraph tests. learn and effectively employ countermeasures, and the false sense of security that can stem from die use of a highly fallible screening tool. Related Articles from SKEPTICAL INQUIRER In its report prompted by the Department of Energy, the NRC offered recommendations that emphasize a number of "Polygraph Testing to be Scaled Back at National Labs." November/December 2003 steps to improve the practice of polygraph testing and safe­ "DOE Seeks Polygraph Program Continuance Despite guard our national security. The report encouraged research on Objections by National Academy." July/August 2003 the basic science relevant to the psychophysiological detection "National Academy of Sciences Report Says Polygraph Testing Too Hawed for Security Screening." January/February of deception such as the polygraph. Alternative processes and 2003 techniques that can supplement or replace the polygraph "Polygraphs and the National Labs: Dangerous Ruse should receive serious study. This research should not be con­ Undermines National Security." Alan P. Zelicoff. Jury/August 2001 ducted by agencies with a real or perceived conflict of interest. "Lying About Polygraph Tests." Elie A. Shneour. Spring 1990 For example, the Department of Defense Polygraph Institute is currently responsible both for the development and evalua­

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 39 A Nobel Laureate Confronts Pseudoscience

A distinguished Russian physicist (co-winner of the 2003 Nobel Prize in Physics) battles the pseudoscience and charlatanism that he feels is duping his country's population. Two articles follow.

L Demagogues against Scientific Expertise

VITALY L. GINZBURG

he fall of the totalitarian Soviet regime brought with it the elimination of censorship, among other Tthings—a great achievement of democracy. But it is a great pity that the new freedom of the press very often turns into the poisonous propaganda of pseudoscience. In 1998 a Commission to Combat Pseudoscience and the Falsification of Scientific Research was created in the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAN) as a step in this direc­ tion. The mission of the Commission is clear from the appeal of the Academy Presidium that was adopted. It begins thus:

40 ianuary/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER At the present time in our country parasciencc and paranormal it, inasmuch as one of the shameless propagandists of pseudo- beliefs are widely proliferated and propagandized: astrology, science was named in it and "journalistic ethics" apparently charlatanism, occultism, etc. Attempts continue to carry out various senseless projects at state expense, like the creation of prohibits newspapers from carrying such criticisms. torsion generators. The Russian population is being duped by Suspicion sometimes arise among even respectable but TV and radio programs, articles, and books with openly anti- uninformed people that promoters of new, productive ideas scientific content. The orgy of wizards, magicians, soothsayers, can suffer if scientists struggle against pseudoscience too and prophets in Russian government and private media is unceasing. Pseudoscience is trying ro penetrate all levels of soci­ strongly. In other words, "who are the judges?" and who are ety and all its institutions, including the Russian Academy of some elderly academicians to judge what is pseudoscience? For Sciences. These irrational and basically amoral trends doubtless in the history of science, there are known cases when progres­ present a serious threat to the normal intellectual development sive views and new ideas have encountered sharp objections. of the nation. The Russian Academy of Sciences cannot and should not view the unprecedented onslaught of obscurantism However, such suspicions of ignorant people (the discussion is with equanimity and is obliged to give it a fitting rebuke.' especially about demagogues) are the fruit of the purest mis­ understanding. The problem is that all reasonable people (in Unfortunately, the Academy's Presidium did not give the any case, all members of the RAN Commission) understand Commission sufficient attention. The entire "staff" of the pseudoscience as something that contradicts only firmly estab­ Commission consists of a single employee who is often occu­ lished truths and not merely controversial issues, new theories, pied with other work. I can also point to the publication of a etc. For example, in the case of the most well-known pseudo- book of the Commissions chairman. Academician Ed. P. science, astrology, it has been repeatedly proven that its horo­ Kruglyakov, Swindlers Posing as Scientists (2001), but in a scopes are obvious charlatanism.1 And the same is true of pseu- laughable edition of only 2,000 copies. Of course, as we all doscientific "perpetual motion" designs—in general, any know, the amount of money given to science in Russia right mechanism whose operation contradicts classical (Newtonian) now is absolutely insufficient, but all the same this is billions mechanics, which has been verified for 300 years (we're not of rubles a year. Somehow there should be enough to publish talking here about relativistic and quantum allowances, which this book in a large edition, with free distribution to higher are also well known). educational institutions, schools, etc. However, to expose these and similar pseudoscientific opin­ My public and repeated appeals to add Ed. P. Kruglyakov ions and concepts we don't need the RAN Commission; com­ to the large RAN Presidium and entrust him with creating a petent engineers and specialists are quite sufficient for this functioning Commission responsible for all such efforts have purpose. The main task of the Commission is to critique more not as yet been heard. specialized and lesser-known issues. The projects using torsion Commission members HE. B. Aleksandrov, Ed. P. Kruglya­ fields are a good example. Modern physics knows of four types kov, and myself have addressed a letter to the president of of fields: gravitational, electromagnetic, and the so-called Russia, V. V. Putin, describing the current situation and con­ "weak" and "strong" forces. In theory, other fields could exist, cluding with the following suggestions: "1. Have an expert in particular, the so-called torsion field (or twisting field). A analysis with the aid of the RAN of any project based on the similar possibility has already been discussed for many years use of new laws of nature unknown to science (antigravity, tor­ within the framework of the General Theory of Relativity. sion fields, etc.); 2. Develop a code preventing fraud and the Appropriate experiments were set up in the U.S.S.R. and duping of people through the mass media, the creation of an abroad which showed that torsion fields either do not gener­ oversight council operating openly, but entrusted with the ally exist in nature or are so weak that they could not be authority to put careless journalists in their place; and 3. detected even with the most sophisticated measuring appara­ Support the publication of popular science literature at the tus. Accordingly, they could not possibly be used for commu­ governmental level." nications equipment or other practical ends. But there were At our request, the president of the RAN, Academician Yu. charlatans who, shrouding themselves in secrecy, deceived mil­ S. Osipov, delivered this lener to the Presidents chief of staff itary and KGB officials and teceived a large amount of money in March 2001. We have not received a reply. from them for their own (if one can call them) projects. All I hope all the same that something positive will be done this has been described in detail in the literature cited above. about pseudoscience in the Russian Academy in the near The Commission (and specifically its members mentioned future. Right now I want to make several comments clarifying above) have been fighting and are fighting these charlatans. some aspects of the issue of pseudoscience and the need to It would seem mat the situation is as clear as possible, but combat it. Personally, 1 have already tried ro do this in several the "torsioners" are finding newer and newer defenders. One articles included in my book, O Nauke, O Sebe, I O Drugikh of them is Eh. V. Vaytsman, who published an article in (About Science, Myself, and Other Things) (2001), and in the September 2002 titled "Reactionaries Against Charlatans," article "About Pseudoscience and the Need to Combat It,"J HE. and subtided "Ordinary authors of scientific articles need to B. Aleksandrov's article, and my own "About Pseudoscience be protected against the caprice of' underhanded opponents'." and its Propagandists."' By the way, the latter has had an It has been a long time since I have had to contend with such interesting fate. We had to place it in a low-circulation publi­ demagogic rhetoric. Mr. Vaytsman also protects "torsioners," cation because a number of newspapers didn't want to publish although he notes that "he is quite far from this problem"

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 41 (and, as I am convinced, doesn't even know what torsion fields informs the editorial board of his agreement in writing. are), but, on the other hand, instructs: "In fighting opponents Can it be done odierwise? Of course not. The review it is unsuitable for academicians to use an academic adminis­ process, if it is honest, is not an easy matter. It is a service the trative resource, including a so-called 'qualified body of reviewers offer to the editorial board. Naturally, in a majority experts'." But all of our "resources" in this case are just the of cases they don't want to start additional arguments with knowledge of physics, which allows us to warn officials who authors and then be subjected to insults, rebukes, accusations are not skilled in it not to use government resources to support of incompetence, etc., which often happens in the case of une­ obviously worthless projects. ducated or troublesome authors. Such a review process (which Each and every phrase in Vaytsman's article is a falsification the authors of rejected articles sometimes see fit to call "under­ or manifestation of arrogance. For example, he suddenly states handed") has, I repeat, been adopted throughout the entire that all three of us (Aleksandrow, Kruglyakov, and myself) world, is unavoidable, and is fair. Articles that are nor pub­ enjoy high-quality free medical services. He should be disap­ lished in one journal are often published in another, including pointed (or, on the contrary, glad?): I enjoy the services of the those in another country. This is also a natural process. academic polyclinic, which is vegetating in poverty, and my Various journals have various requirements and often their colleagues who don't live in Moscow also are obviously not own specific ones. For example, UFN is a digest type of jour­ registered with the Kremlin Polyclinic. More important, what nal and we can't even print valuable articles in full, but rather does this have to do with the issue of pseudoscience? narrowly specialized ones which don't have quite broad con­ tent. There's no discrimination here; the size of the journal is Scientific Works and the Review Process limited and often a great deal of material must be rejected. In I don't intend to hold a discussion with opponents of journals that publish only original work the selection criteria Vaytsman's type, but I consider it useful to illustrate one more are different, of course. Doubtless there are mistakes in edito­ way in which people are deceived. This is about the publica­ rial work, not to mention controversial cases, but what does tion of scientific works; the assertion is that capriciousness is this prove? We need to try and work better, but it's impossible supposedly allowed in this matter, hindering the expression of to print all the articles that come in. Such journals would new ideas. Accusations about the anonymity of reviewers, hardly be subscribed to and read, the work of many people whom "fighters for justice" call "underhanded opponents," are would be lost, and there wouldn't be enough money to publish especially popular. thick volumes. What is the process of publication of scientific works Unfortunately, the development of the so-called electronic accepted throughout the entire world, including Russia? It is press and die Internet are making this problem worse. Audiors the same more or less everywhere, but to be specific and to in a whole range of specialties can, without hindrance or avoid any inaccuracies 1 will describe how work is conducted in review, place dieir articles on suitable Web sites. There even the journal Uspekhi Fizicheskikh Nauk (Successes of the Physical exists an opinion and a tendency to move everything to the Sciences), where I am editor-in-chief. Any article coming to the Internet and stop printed editions. Many (I among them) vig­ editor, including articles by members of the editorial board, orously oppose such an approach and consider it necessary to myself included, are sent for review. The reviewer can be a have paper journals. The review process and selection of articles member of the editorial board, but most often he plays the role by an editorial board are unavoidable. Those dissarisfied with of just one more reviewer. If the review is favorable but contains such a method are often demagogues and uneducated people. I various critical comments, it is sent to die author for revision, can only add that in my more dian sixty years of practical work then is usually sent to the reviewer again or to the appropriate I do not know of an instance where a truly valuable work and member of the editorial board. As a result, if the article is cho­ idea in die field of physics was not published. sen for publication, they edit it and send it to be printed. In conclusion, I want to return to the really important issue Can it be done otherwise? Of course not. In the process, die of the struggle against pseudoscience. Even if the RAN and, to author is obliged to accept the corrections, bodi in the Russian no lesser degree, die Russian Academy of Medical Sciences and the English versions (our journal is translated into (RAMN) do dieir duty to protect science in Russia from pseu- English). All this is a quite laborious process, done by the entire doscientists, charlatans, and swindlers by shifting this matter editorial board and translators. If die review of die article is to a Commission, die problem as a whole will not be solved. negative and die member of the editorial board who oversees It can only be solved if all scientists and educated lay people this field and I agree with the negative conclusion, the author are uncompromising toward obscurantism and fight against it. is informed that die article is rejected. Often the author does There are various means available. I will share one of not agree with our conclusion and informs us of his counterar­ them, which I have adopted for myself. A correspondent guments, and then die article is sent for comment to anodier from a well-known newspaper called me from time to time reviewer and is considered again. Finally, sometimes after a sec­ asking questions about science. Once I decided to ask ond negative conclusion and my negative conclusion but when whether his newspaper published astrological predictions. die author has new objections, die article is discussed at a meet­ The correspondent informed me that, yes, the newspaper did ing of the editorial board. In die course of this process die sur­ publish them, although neither he nor the editorial board name of the reviewer is given to the author only if die reviewer believed in them, but, you see, "the readers request them."

42 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER This is a typical case of the mass media duping the public that propagandize and encourage charlatanism we would in pursuit of revenue. I informed the correspondent that I achieve some success. would not answer his questions and in general have anything to do with his newspaper while it promoted pseudoscience. —Translated by Gary Goldberg The journalist has not called me since. Obviously they con- Notes tinue to publish horoscopes, and unfortunately it's not hard 1. For more details, see Vestnik RAN (Bulletin of the RAN) N 10, 1999 and to find more compliant consultants. I think that if the major- Ae newsP?P« ft«* N "• '999. 2 !n ,ne r , r \ • -r • . - magazine Nauka i Zhizn (Science and Life). N 11,2000. lty or members of the scientific community or at least the i.Vamik RANUi. 1999. members of the RAN and RAMN boycotted the mass media 4. Stx% for example, V.Suidini article in A6m^iZfe[.&j^

This is Dr. Ginzburg's article from a Russian newspaper ("Rossiiskaia Gazeta,) in reply to an academic who supports pseudoscience and has accused the RAN Commission of seeking to suppress daring ideas.

II. Brave Thoughts Are Still Not the Truth

Scientists often take the bait of swindlers from pseudoscience. VITALY L. GINZBURG

he Academician N.P. Bekhtereva's article "Censor of All Sciences?" forces me to make a number of com­ Tments regarding pseudoscience and my attitude toward it. Unfortunately, there are many obvious misunder­ standings, confusion of concepts, and demagogy about this issue. I have already had to write about this more than once (in particular, in my book About Science, Myself, and Other Things, 2003). But I will have to repeat some things. It would seem that the term pseudoscience speaks for itself—it is theories and statements contradicting scientific knowledge. But, you know, they are not static. Science is developing all the time and therefore, to put it bluntly, con­ sists of two parts. First, from firmly established and repeatedly

Related Articles in SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Special section "Science and Pseudoscience in Russia." with ankles by Paul Kurtz. Yuri N. Efremov, and Edward Kruglyakov and text of a resolution against antiscience. charlatanism, and irrationalism in Russia, SI. July/August 2002.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 43 confirmed scientific truths and laws. Second, especially in the gle against pseudoscience and the Commission's activities? field of new, so-called "frontier" directions—in science every­ Unquestionably, no scientific statement can be considered thing is in ferment and the struggle of ideas is ongoing. Some are pseudoscientific a priori. Ed. R Kruglyakov does not declare the victorious and others turn out to be incorrect and are thrown out work of die associates of the Brain Institute to be pseudoscience; by the scientific community. his criticism is mainly in regard to a phrase that figures in one of Thus only dieories, constructs, and statements contradicting the interviews of die lead researcher: "Right now is the wrong firmly established facts and theories can be declared pseudo- time to express very bold ideas because die Academy has a science. Lets say mat astrology is unquestionably a pseudo- Commission on Pseudoscience" and also her letter to President science. Other examples of pseudoscience or, as they sometimes V.V. Putin with a proposal to "introduce a method of instruction say, parascience, include various designs for mechanisms and in 'alternative viewing' in die country's special services." instruments that supposedly operate in violation of the Law of The phrase cited seems no less insulting to me members of me Conservation of Energy or classical mechanics. But I must Commission to which I belong than the words of its chairman which emphasize that it is of course impossible to declare ideas and the­ offended N.P Bekhtereva. But, knowing what a "spoiled/tainted tele­ ories pseudoscience mat have not yet been refuted in an experi­ phone" is and not having the original text of die interview and die let­ ment or as a result of stria mathematical analysis. ter to the President, I diink it is impossible to discuss mis issue in All qualified scientists and, I daresay, all members of me RAN detail. Moreover, I should talk about my role in this "story." Commission to Combat Pseudoscience and the Falsification of In 2002,1 was sent an article by N.P. Bekhtereva entitled "O Scientific Research, which was created in 1998, understand mis. pryamom videnii" ("Direct Viewing"), published in an academic Its appearance was a somewhat belated and forced measure. An journal, Fiziologiya cheloveka (Human Physiology). At about the appeal adopted by the RAN Presidium characterized the situa­ same time, corresponding member of the RAN V. B. Braginsky tion [see the preceding article "Demagogues Against Scientific and Moscow State University Professor S.P. Vetchanin visited a Expertise" for its text]. "direct viewing" demonstration in one of the university's depart­ There is no room here to discuss the work of me Commission. ments. They insisted that die children who were supposedly "see­ An article by its chairman, Academician Ed. R Kruglyakov, ing" widi dieir eyes blindfolded also have dieir eyes covered with "Trafficking in Ignorance," published in June 2003, gives a certain other bandages. Under such conditions die "phenomenon" dis­ picture of it. The facts cited in it are literally scandalous and demand appeared. Therefore the Moscow State University professors con­ a fitting reaction from the authorities and scientific community. cluded that in their "original" bandages the children were peek­ Unfortunately, the fight against pseudoscience has not drawn ing, which was reported to the university's administration, where proper attention either from the RAN Presidium or other "state" it seems that such demonstrations were stopped. academies (mainly the RAMN [Russian Academy of Medical Since I am not a physiologist I didn't try to investigate any­ Sciences]), nor from the so-called "public" academies. The attrac­ thing, but on October 1, 2002, I wrote a letter to RAN Vice tiveness of the title "Academician" has led to the appearance of President N.A. Plateh (who oversees our Commission) in which dozens of "academies," which are often far from modern science. 1 proposed that this matter be immediately investigated, for It would be useful if these "academies" were to fight for the purity example by creating a commission of experts. And I also added, of science, including in tiieir own ranks. "To avoid misunderstandings I should stress that I do not suspect Here's a specific and recent example. It was reported in one of the associates of die RAN Brain Institute of pseudoscientific the newspapers that a Doctor of Technical Sciences and activity. I only suspect diat they have fallen victim to swindlers, Academician of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences but, of course, diis can only be proven after expert examination." (RAYeN), O. Grinkevich, developed a thermogenerator with an NA Plateh sent this letter to the RAN Biological Sciences efficiency of about 200 percent, that is, in violation of the Law Branch, which informed me that it was coordinating "die mem­ of the Conservation of Energy. Is it really not the duty of die bership of an expert commission which would include represen­ RAYeN to verify die statements of its members? Not much is tatives of die RAN who deal with problems of fundamental sci­ required to do diis. ence and clinical specialists." Obviously they have not "coordi­ Now about N. P. Bekhtereva's article. WitiS its subtide, "There nated" it yet, but we hope that an expert commission will be cre­ exists no audioritative criteria of' correctness' in die knowledge of ated at some point to clarify this question. the new," I think the overwhelming majority of scientists would If diis commission comes to a positive conclusion about die agree completely. But what does this have to do wim the strug- existence of "direct viewing," I will be only too glad to congratu­ late St. Petersburg scientists on a great scientific achievement. The Vitaly L Ginzburg is with the P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute, suspicion diat the Commission to Combat Pseudoscience is inter­ Moscow, Russia, where he formerly headed the Theory Group. With fering with scientific exploration is completely unfounded. Like Lev Landau, Ginzburg formulated a theory that explained in detail many of my colleagues, I think diat press reports about sensational certain important questions about superconductivity In December discoveries ought to be well-substantiated and verified. If diis is 2003, Ginzburg and physicists Alexei A Abrikosov (Argonne only about assigning a priority, then it can be achieved by sending National Laboratory) and Anthony J. Leggett (University of Illinois) an official letter to the RAN. However, as far as I understand it, no were awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics for their contributions con­ question of a priority has arisen in die study of "direct viewing." LJ cerning superconductivity and superfluidity E-mail: ginzburg@lpi. ru. Translated by Gary Goldberg.

44 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER Natural Medicine: Will That Be a Pill or a Needle?

Many alternative practitioners promise to reveal "secrets your doctor never told you." One secret is never mentioned: why alternative remedies are ingested rather than injected. Though most practitioners of alternative medicine are silent on this question, this "missing information, " as previously described by Kardes and Sanbonmatsu (2003), is crucial for evaluating the promised cure. WILLIAM H. BAARSCHERS

o-called natural medicines, usually herbs or supple­ ments, are invariably things to eat or drink. And why Snot? Ever since the appearance of pharmaceuticals in the early 1800s, the doctor's prescription, legible only to a pharmacist, would nearly always get you something to swal­ low—a liquid, a pill, or a powder; an extract of senna leaves to relieve constipation, for example, or a "headache powder." Only occasionally would the prescription get you something to rub on your skin, like a salve. Today, medication still comes mostly in pill or capsule form. By the late 1800s, Louis Pasteur's work with microorgan­ isms brought about the first vaccines, for anthrax and rabies. BCG (bacillus Calmette-Guerin) vaccine against tuberculosis

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 45 appeared in 1921, and by 1955, Jonas Salk developed his polio the bloodstream. Odiers are fermented by the bacteria in our vaccine. These vaccines could not be swallowed, they had to be colon, and still others are excreted. injected. With a needle. But inflicting pain is unpleasant and More hurdles wait in the bloodstream. Portal blood carries discourages parents from bringing their children for vaccina­ absorbed food-derived molecules first to the liver, which can tion. Therefore, Albert Sabin's 1965 oral polio vaccine was an metabolize a chemical, be it food or medicine, before it important discovery. reaches the systemic circulation. It's quite a steeplechase for The 1960s also brought the oral contraceptives—birth- whatever we eat. control pills. Carl Djerassi, a chemistry professor at Stanford Like the family doctor of old, alternative healers also give us University known as "the father of the birth-control pill," pre­ pills or teas. After all, we have been conditioned to accept med­ ferred to call it "chemical fertility control." What was so spe­ icine as something we eat, never mind who recommends or cial about oral polio vaccine and oral contraceptives? Did we prescribes it. But there is a difference between the alternative not always swallow our medicines? Why were these oral med­ and the conventional. We invariably eat or drink the herbalist's ications such a breakthrough? prescriptions. But physicians, although they prefer to prescribe Although polio vaccine and birth-control pills are far apart pills or capsules, must sometimes reach for the needle, because in the pharmaceutical spectrum, the reason for the importance many effective drugs do not cope well with the rigors of our of "oral" is the same. Research digestive tract. A drug's susceptibility often yields promising compounds to digestion or its poor absorption that act on microorganisms or on through the intestinal wall result in cell cultures in vitro, in the shallow poor bioavailability. Such drugs must glass vessels called petri dishes. be injected to bypass the digestive Next, the potential remedy is tested system. The alternative-medicine on animals, usually via a syringe. approach rarely considers the How does it get to be a pill? Or bioavailability question. does it? Of an annotated list of North American prescription drugs, fully From Needle to Pill one third cannot be taken orally for Progesterone is a hormone secreted these reasons (Springhouse Cor­ during pregnancy. One of its func­ poration 1996). They are injected, tions is to prevent the fertilization usually by a nurse or a doctor. of other egg cells. It is the natural In contrast, the complementary form of birth control, but it cannot approach holds to the view that be used as a pill. Progesterone is good medicine, provided by nature, absorbed readily through the comes from plants. It should be intestinal wall and is quickly eaten, even if the extract must be metabolized on its first pass sealed in a capsule. Strangely, through the liver. Its half-life in the although chemical laboratories are blood stream is about five minutes not kindly thought of by herb users, (Katzung 1998). Chemically mod­ buying herbal extracts sealed into ifying die progesterone molecule laboratory-made capsules does not avoids diis problem. That modifi­ seem to be a problem. cation allowed die development of the Pill. An early step in testing new drugs is determining how the The moment we swallow something, what we eat starts on drug reaches the target organ, how much enters the circula­ an obstacle course toward its destination. Enzymes in saliva tion, and how quickly it is metabolized or excreted. Without begin the attack. Then die strongly acidic environment in the knowing this pharmacokinetic behavior, we cannot predict stomach alters many food molecules. Chemicals diat survive what happens after we swallow the pill, the capsule, or the tea. this far face the digestive enzymes on their way through the A chemical called amygdalin, extracted from peach or apri­ small intestine. Eventually, some useful products of the break­ cot pits, was touted throughout the 1970s as an anticancer down of our food are absorbed through the intestinal wall into drug under the name Laetrile and became the subject of much controversy. While some alternative healers still believe William H. Baarschers is a professor emeritus of chemistry at Laetrile is a cancer drug, conventional medicine has rejected it. Lakehead University in Thunder Bay, Ontario. His research inter­ Laetrile molecules consist, in the chemical sense, of three ests have included the chemistry of medicinal plants, synthetic chem­ smaller building blocks: benzaldehyde, glucose, and hydro­ istry, environmental science, and industrial toxicology. He is cur­ cyanic acid. The last one is a highly toxic chemical, the rently advisor to the University's Resource Centre for Occupational "cyanide" of detective stories and gas chambers. Health and Safety He is the author of Eco-Facts & Eco-Fiction: The reason for rejecting Laetrile is its pharmacokinetic Understanding die Environmental Debate (Routledge, 1996). behavior. When injected into cancer patients, it was quickly

46 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER and almost completely excreted in the urine (Moertel et al. cular structure of die isolated active compound, lentinan, was 1981). Given orally, it is rapidly split into its building blocks found to be that of a carbohydrate. Not very exciting—what by stomach acid, causing elevated but nonlethal blood levels of could be more common than a carbohydrate? Nevertheless, cyanide. Since injected Laetrile is not absorbed, and if orally numerous scientific reports on lentinans anticancer potential administered, the drug is destroyed by digestion, whatever it have appeared during the past forty years, and they continue does to cancer cells in a lab is irrelevant. to appear. Lentinan appears to slow tumor growth, but most experiments are with cell cultures or small numbers of animals Magic Mushrooms (Suzuki et al. 1994). Lentinan does not kill cancer cells—it is Laetrile nicely illustrates the bioavailability problem with oral not cytotoxic. remedies, but there is a much more romantic example. The shi­ Association of carbohydrates with the surface of cells plays a itake mushroom has an important place in both the food and role in the "recognition" tasks of those cells—an important part the medicine of Asian countries, particularly China and Japan. of our immune system. Lentinan is believed to support those A mushroom's overnight appearance, seemingly out of immune system tasks. Consequently, such chemicals have been nowhere, must have seemed like pure magic to our ancestors. called "immune-response modifiers." Similar carbohydrates are No wonder mushrooms have been used as both food and med­ found in other mushrooms, like maitake and reishi. Chinese icine in virtually all cultures for thousands of years. Some were herbal medicines Hunang Qi {Astragalus) and Dankei just considered good treatment for common ailments. Others (Angelica) ace called immune modifiers in an American patent were powerful "medicine," consumed by shamans in religious (Liu 1989). A carbohydrate found in ordinary wheat straw also ceremonies (Schultes and Hofmann 1979). Hallucinogens in has immune modifying properties (Nakahara et al. 1967). these mushrooms are closely related to dopamine and sero­ There is more tempting news. Citrus pectin is also a carbo­ tonin, chemicals directly involved in brain function. hydrate, the soluble fiber we find in many fruits. News about Mushrooms are also food. The nutritional value of the shi­ citrus pectin in relation to prostate cancer was illustrated with itake is similar to that of other vegetables. It is about 90 percent a good-looking, juicy lemon (Webb 1997). The question is water, some carbohydrates, some minerals, small amounts of obvious: If forty years of research show readily available, cheap vitamin C, and a iitde protein, although shiitakes protein con­ carbohydrates to be cancer-fighting and immune strengthen­ tent is only half diat of die oyster mushroom (Chang 1980). ing, why do we still not have a carbohydrate-type anticancer A little mycology, or fungus science, helps to appreciate die drug? Is the "medical establishment" missing the boat? shiitake story. The often-invisible, underground part of a fungus is the mycelium, or vegetative pan. It grows in soil, in wood, or Cancer Drugs? other organic debris. The spore-bearing fruiting bodies are die Let's stan widi the mushroom. Most of die literature reports on actual mushrooms. They are formed only when conditions of lentinan are in Japanese scientific journals, widi English sum­ temperature, humidity, and the fungus' stage of growth are just maries in Chemical Abstracts—about a thousand studies in the right. The shiitake belongs to the white-rot fungi, which grow past diirty-five years. What a remarkable interest in a gourmet on rotting wood and slowly break it down for the benefit of mushroom. The critical question is: How was die lentinan other forest dwellers. Mycelium of white-rot fungi, grown in applied? In a random sample of a couple of hundred of these culture, is used to biodegrade some food processing wastes repons, about rwo-diirds mention die use of injections. Some (Vinciguerra et al. 1995). But it is the fruiting body, the actual patents describe "injectable solutions" (Guo and Liu 1993). The mushroom, mat goes so well widi diat juicy steak. remaining reports simply stated diat lab animals were "treated" Shiitake mushrooms have played an important role in with lentinan. A rare citation mentions oral application. ancient Asian medicine because riiey contain two notable Lentinan is a large carbohydrate molecule that would not chemicals. One is reported to be an anticancer compound, and be absorbed through the intestinal wall. Taken by mouth, the other can lower blood cholesterol. lentinan is either digested, like starch, or more likely, it is a nondigestible carbohydrate, like pectin or cellulose (Noah et Mushrooms and Lemons al. 1998). As a dietary fiber, either it will be fermented in the The reported anticancer effect of shiitake mushrooms has a colon or it will be excreted. Lentinan, if it is a drug at all, prominent place in modern complementary-medicine litera­ would have to be an injectable drug. ture. Although not always explicidy mentioned as a reason for The literature regarding lemon is different. It specifically eating die mushrooms, die suggestion is there when we see a mentions diat oral administration of the modified pectin inhib­ story on die anticancer effects of shiitake illustrated with a ited die metastasis of prostate cancer in rats (Pienta et al. 1995). fresh, delectable mushroom (McCaleb 1994). Other advice The citrus pectin was quite extensively modified, by way of a explicitly states that eating shiitake helps to resist tumors, well-established laboratory procedure for panially breaking whatever "resisting tumors" means (Bremness 1994). In North down die large pectin molecules into much smaller fragments, America, shiitakes are a tasty, luxurious companion to steak which may well be small enough to pass through die intestinal and red wine. Are they also an expensive medicine? wall. What reduced metastasis in die rats was not a "complex Shiitake mushrooms first appear in die scientific literature carbohydrate" but radier a much smaller molecule. Nobody around die late 1960s (Maeda and Chihara 1971). The mole­ knows, as yet, what die human digestive system would do to it.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 200S 47 And why citrus pectin? Because it is convenient and readily (Spoerke and Rumack 1994). However, eritadenine disap­ available from chemical-supply companies. Pectin from any peared from the science literature around the early 1980s. other source, like apples, could well have given similar results Chemical Abstracts indexes of the past fifteen years no longer (Nakahara et al. 1967). The lemon connection was coinciden­ mention it. Perhaps that is just as well. A synthetic preparation tal. Illustrating the story with a fresh lemon made it attractive, of eritadenine would, of course, be perfectly identical to what but the research had nothing to do with eating lemons. The the mushroom produces. But it would have to go through the "herbal connection" was purely symbolic. same costly testing protocol as other drugs before it could These studies are important. This is basic research that become clinically available. That would make it much more reveals interactions of specific carbohydrates with mammalian expensive than gourmet mushrooms. metabolism. Carbohydrates, the primary products of photo­ The behavior of a chemical in our digestive system and in synthesis in plants, are abundant, cheap, and renewable. Plants the bloodstream is very important. For legal prescription make them in enormous variation and in huge quantities. drugs, this pharmacokinetic behavior is studied and is known. They are used as food and food additives and in various med­ For many herbal remedies and plant extracts it is not known. ical applications. At least six herbal plants with a very high It is a secret your (naturopathic) doctor never told you. Many content of the so-called carbohydrate hydrocolloids, like plant extracts have useful medicinal properties, but we need to pectin, are routinely used in Europe. Since carbohydrates know if we have to take them as a pill or through a needle . .. interact so readily with other chemicals, including enzymes, a or as a juicy steak with mushrooms. long list of "modified" carbohydrates has been developed to serve both the food industry and medicine (Franz 1989). References Anticancer drugs are not on the list. Bremness. Lesley. 1994. Herbs: The Visual Guide to More than 700 Herb Species from Around the World. Toronto: Stoddart Publishers. Chang, ST. 1980. Mushrooms as human food. Bioscience 30(6):399-401. Policy Issues Chibata, I., et al. 1969. Lentinacin: a new hypo-cholestcrolemic substance in Even if lentinan has to be an injectable drug, so what? We just Lentinus edodes. Experienlia 25( 12): 1237-8. Cragg, G., et al. 1995. Pharmaceutical prospecting and the potential for phar­ found that nearly a diird of all prescription drugs are injectable. maceutical crops: Natural product drug discovery and development at the Unfortunately, in the case of lentinan, the injection is not a good United States National Cancer Institute. Annals of the Missouri Botanical solution for getting around die digestion problem. The size of Gardens 82:47-53. Franz, G. 1989. Polysaccharides in pharmacy: Current applications and future the lentinan molecule also causes problems for the needle. concepts. Planta Medica 55:493—7. Injecting large molecules like carbohydrates or proteins Guo, R., and Y. Liu. 1993. Formulations of lentinan for intravenous injection, directly into the bloodstream provokes the body's defense sys­ Japanese Patent CN 1,076,112 {Chemical Abstracts, 120, 331103s). Kardes. Frank R., and David M. Sanbonmatsu. 2003. Omission neglect: The tems. This is the basis of the rejection mechanism of trans­ importance of missing information, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER 27(2) planted organs. Large, foreign molecules are recognized by our (March/April):42-46. immune system as invaders, like viruses and bacteria. Several Katzung. Bertram G-, ed. 1998. Basic and Clinical Pharmacology, seventh edi­ tion. Stamford, Connecticut: Appleton & Lange. research reports on lentinan comment on blood-vessel dilation Liu, Yagnang. 1989. Polysaccharide containing pharmaceutical composition and internal bleeding caused by the injections (Maeda et al. from plants for increasing the immune function. U.S. Patent 4,843,067. 1992). This is one of the reasons the American National Maeda. Y.Y., and G. Chihara. 1971. Lentinan, a new immuno-accelcrator of cell-mediated responses. Nature 229:634. Cancer Institute (NCI) excludes from further investigation all Maeda, Y.Y., et al. 1992. Genetic control on lentinan-induced acute phase compounds that turn up in that organization's screening pro­ responses and vascular responses. Folia Histochemica Cytobiologica grams and that arc either carbohydrates, proteins, or tan­ 30(4):207-9. nins—the large molecules that are likely to provoke immune McCaleb. R. 1994. Research reviews. HerbalGram 30:10-12. Moertel, C.G., et al. 1981. Pharmacological and toxicological study of amyg- reactions (Cragg et al. 1995). dalin. Journal of the American Medical Association 245(6):591-4. Not all scientific opinion agrees with NCI's policy; investi­ Nakahara, W„ et al. 1967. Inhibition of mouse sarcoma 180 by a wheat hemi- gation into the medicinal potential of carbohydrates continues ccllulosc B preparation. Nature 216:374—5. Noah, Lionel, et al. 1998. Digestion of carbohydrate from white beans in many places (Franz 1989). This work on carbohydrates is (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in healthy humans. Journal of Nutrition just another small battle in the "war on cancer," and it will 128(6):977-985. probably carry on for a while. But so far, the carbohydrate Pienta, K.J., et al. 1995. Inhibition of spontaneous metastasis in a rat prostate cancer model by oral administration of modified citrus pectin. Journal of approach has not yielded an anticancer drug. the National Cancer Institute 87(51:348-52. Schultes, R.E., and A. Hofmann. 1979. Plants of the Gods, Origins of Cholesterol and a Juicy Steak Hallucinogenic Use. New York: McGraw-Hill. Spoerke, David G., and Barry H. Rumack, eds. 1994. Handbook of Mushroom A further, curious wrinkle in die shiitake story has to do with Poisoning. Boca Raton, Florida: CRC Press, 391-9. another killer, heart disease. Another chemical in diis fungus Springhouse Corporation. 1996. The Nurse Practitioners' Drug Handbook. was found to lower blood-cholesterol levels. The chemical, ini­ Springhouse, Pennsylvania: Springhouse Corp. Suzuki, Manabu, et al. 1994. Antitumour and immunological activity of tially called lentinacin, first appeared in die literature in 1969 Lentinan in comparison with LPS. International Journal of lmmuno- (Chibata et al. 1969). Shortly afterward, chemists changed its pharmacology 16<5/6):463-468. name to eritadenine. It was reported to be ten times more Vinciguerra. V., et al. 1995. Correlated effects during bioconversion of waste olive waters by Lenlinus edodes. Bioresources and Technology 51 (2/3):221 -6. effective in lowering blood cholesterol dian clofibrate, a first- Webb, G. 1997. Citrus pectin may inhibit metastasis of prostate cancer. generation synthetic drug for treating hypercholesterolemia HerbalGram 40:17. D

48 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

A Giant Standing on the Shoulders of Giants GREG MARTINEZ

Einstein's Cosmos: How Albert Einstein's Vision Transformed Our Understanding of Space and Time. By Michio Kaku. Atlas books. W.W. Norton & Company, New York. 2004. ISBN 0-393-05165-X. 251 pp. Hardcover, $22.95.

he year 2005 brings the centen­ is an irony treasured by countless par­ torate just a few months before the pub­ nial of the publication of the ents that the muttering child forsaken lication of his landmark papers, while still Tseventeenth volume of Annalen by an inflexible educational system was working as a clerk in a Swiss patent office. der Physik, one of the leading academic in reality the greatest genius of the age, The reaction to these papers was physics journals of its day. This particu­ perhaps of all time. Einstein had to edu­ muted at first, as the science community lar issue has achieved a legend all its cate himself, but, more profoundly, he digested ideas that, if correct, would at own, because its contents included three could educate himself, usually far the very least amend shortcomings in papers by a hitiierto obscure patent clerk beyond the abilities of his instructors. Newton's theories of motion, but, in and physicist named Albert Einstein. fact, would cause an upheaval in con­ Addressing the topics of statistical temporary views of time, space, gravity, mechanics, eiectromagnetism, and rela­ and quantum physics. Eventually the tivity, the author painstakingly and f ] theories were acclaimed, and as subse­ clearly laid out a vision of time, space, quent experimental testing of the theo­ and the physical forces of die universe ries validated Einstein's conjectures, his that would eventually transform our fame erupted from the enclosed world understanding of our place in time and EINSTEIN'S of mathematical physics into the the universe. COSMOS nascent world of celebrity cultute. In the Einstein's "miracle year" of 1905 did time between the world wars, Einstein not come about easily. As Michio Kaku ii.-- tftrrfl i Imtttu • became the most recognized science fig­ depicts in his nimbly written and r W(| irtnijtrmid ure in the world and one of die most <>•» I miitu»»Itmf if absorbing new biography, the path to famous by any measure. Sfstt ««i Tim * this breakthrough was strewn with acad­ This burst of fame roughly coincided emic setbacks and hardships due to with an increasing hostility toward Jews young Einstein's very individualistic I in Germany and Eastern Europe, hostil­ learning methods. Balking at the point­ ity that was faced by even a nonobser- less rigidity of German schooling, • vant Jew like Einstein. His prominence Einstein grew to become an accom­ made him a highly visible target for the plished autodidact both from orienta­ rising Nazi movement. A German mag­ tion and necessity. Difficulties in the use azine published an edition listing per­ of expressive language led instructors of This blazing mind singed more rfran a ceived enemies of the Nazi movement die young Einstein to forsake his educa­ few egos, and his attempts at earning a with Einstein as its cover model and a tion, predicting a future of simple labor. doctorate or even a teaching position caption reading, "Not yet hanged." In His peripatetic family life (his father were actively thwarted by professors and short order, Einstein fled to America, tried and failed at several businesses dur­ administrators he had alienated with his where his celebrity was fixed. ing Einstein's youth, resulting in many superior intellect and impatience witJi relocations across eastern Europe) also their inability to recognize the gifts he Greg Martinez lives and writes in disrupted young Einstein's education. It possessed. He was finally awarded a doc­ Gainesville, Florida.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 200S 49 BOOK REVIEWS

It was while in America, at Princeton that have tumbled off Einstein's plate helped satisfy some of the critics. Most University, that Einstein became the are now winning Nobel Prizes for oth­ important, Arthur Keith and other tousle-haired, pipe-smoking, sockless, er scientists." prominent evolutionary theorists of the and sweatshirt-wearing figure that is his Kaku's book, the third volume in day expected that since the brain was the widely recognized caricature. He spent WW. Norton's "Great Discoveries" series most important development in human his time in America working on a grand of popular-science books, is a fine accom­ evolution, the earliest recognizable unified theory, the Holy Grail of plishment, balancing a sensitive and sym­ ancestral humans should have a large physics, but with no success. He used pathetic narrative of Einstein's difficult brain while retaining other ape-like fea­ his celebrity for activism (and irritating life with marvelously clear and lucid tures. Piltdown suited them just fine. J. Edgar Hoover's FBI) and charitable explanations of theories that are truly As paleoanthropology knowledge works, seemingly enjoying a fame that mind-boggling and genuinely awe- progressed in subsequent years, Piltdown baffled him, until his death in 1955. inspiring. As technologies have advanced, at first hindered the acceptance of early Kaku addresses these last few decades of experimental science has been able to hominid finds with teeth that looked Einstein's life with great sympathy catch up with the diought experiments of more modern than their skulls. As these and admiration. Most biographers gloss a lonely patent clerk with a seemingly Australopithecines and others came to be over this period as the fading glory of a boundless mind, and he has been vindi­ accepted, Piltdown looked less and less once-great scientist, but Kaku argues cated repeatedly. The first century of authentic, and some scholars avoided dis­ persuasively that die groundwork for Einstein's influence has been remarkable cussion of the embarrassing black sheep much latter-day research was laid dur­ and thrilling; one can only dream about of the human family. After Arthur ing these years. As Kaku writes, "crumbs what the second century may bring. Woodward died in 1944, chemical test­ ing in 1949 and a further battery of tests and observations by some of the top play­ ers in 1953 showed that die doubters Bits of Bogus Science were correct after all: the cranium and mandible were not the same age or pale­ Preceding Piltdown olithic at all, and the teeth had been filed JOHN WHITTAKER to make a more human dentition in an ape's jaw. The bone tool was modern, and Piltdown Man: The Secret Life of Charles Dawson and the even die fossil rhino toodi and odier Worlds Greatest Archaeological Hoax. By Miles Russell. bones came from elsewhere and were Tempus Publishing Ltd., Stroud, Gloustershire, UK. 2003. artificially stained to match. ISBN 0752425722. 288 pp. Softcover, £14.99 ($27). To most, Charles Dawson has always been the most likely perpetrator. But at the time and since then he has had many here have been quite a few books at Piltdown by Arthur Woodward, defenders who point to him as a respected on die Piltdown fraud, but this Keeper of Geology at the British lawyer and amateur scientist widi little Tnew one provides a good Museum, and the Jesuit naturalist motive for deceit and limited ability to account, and by focusing on die life of Marie-Joseph Pierre Teilhard de create a large and complex hoax. Many die main figure, produces a convincing Chardin. According to Dawson, he had odiers have been accused over the years: answer to the "whodunnit" of the hoax. actually found some skull fragments the Jesuit Teilhard de Chardin might have The basic story is well known: in years earlier. The gravels also produced a wanted to embarrass die scientific estab­ 1912, Charles Dawson announced the few crude stone tools, an odd worked lishment, Arthur Woodward perhaps had discovery of a "missing link," a fossil bone artifact, and some Pleistocene ani­ a grudge against his museum superiors, with an ape-like jaw, but a human cra­ mal bones. A few doubters at the time and odiers at the time could have had var­ nium. Dawson was assisted in his work questioned whether the mandible and ied motives, including a joke diat grew the skull actually came from die same until it was too dangerous to admit. John Whittaker teaches anthropology and organism, a problem diiticult to resolve Russell reviews all die suspects and finds archaeology at Grinnell College and has a since, significantly, the face of die skull none who would really have had die particular interest in archaeological con­ and important parts of the mandible opportunity to plant a series of doctored troversies and frauds, which are also dis­ were missing. However, further work remains, regardless of sometimes far­ cussed in his recent book American recovered more bits, including an ape­ fetched dieories about motivation. Flintknappers: Stone Age Art in die Age like lower canine found by de Chardin, Dawson himself was silenced by death of Computers (University of Texas Press). that improved the reconstruction and in 1916, but in his life, he had earned a

50 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS considerable reputation as an archaeolo­ dence to be found by others. In all, Piltdown and continuing to dig at gist. Russell's book is a detailed analysis of Russell finds some thirty bits of bogus Dawson's sites. The supporting dupe who the scientific career of Dawson the anti­ science from the hand of Dawson. has too much to lose to recognize the quarian and naturalist. As a boy, he col­ In light of Russell's work, and that of truth is another common motif in frauds. lected fossils and was befriended by geol­ others to whom he gives due credit, it is And finally, while we may deplore ad ogists, donating finds to the British clear that Piltdown was only the last and hominem attacks as scientific arguments, Museum and becoming a fellow of the best fabrication of Dawson's career. So Russell's biography of Dawson demon­ Geological Society by the age of twenty- many small deceptions had worked— strates that the background and scholarly one. As he became a solicitor and entered why not try a really good one? He died record of a scientist may be of the greatest the legal profession, science became his before he could reap the full harvest of relevance in evaluating his science. gentlemanly avocation. He continued to honors, and long before the progress of I found Piltdown Man a fascinating find fossils, helped found a museum, science would have exposed him. book. Each individual case is a quirky joined archaeological societies, per­ formed a number of excavations, and published a series of reports that estab­ lished his reputation for making impor­ tant finds. The heart of Russell's book is a careful and readable examination of From abraded fossil mammal teeth in the 1890s to Dawson's record, case by case. From abraded fossil mammal teeth in the doctored teeth of Piltdown, Charles Dawson is the 1890s (Plagiaulax dawsoni) to the linked to a series of small frauds, salted sites, doctored teeth of Piltdown (Eoanthropus dawsoni), Dawson is linked to a series of dubious reports, and borderline scholarship. small frauds, salted sites, dubious reports, and borderline scholarship. Most were plausible and not so excep­ tional that they might raise eyebrows, but each improved the reputation of the author. The best of them solved interest­ The lessons for the skeptical observer vignette of early modern science. ing problems of the day, for example, of science are many. The moral usually Russell explains them well in their his­ bricks from the Roman fort at Pevensey preferred by scientists is that science, torical context, and provides the evi­ with stamps that provided a Roman given time, will correct its mistakes and dence to evaluate them, documents his name for the site, a link to the last oust deception (see Massimo Pigliucci's sources, and reaches a firm conclusion. Roman emperor ruling Britain, and thus column in this issue, page 20). A less opti­ He explains details of the Piltdown a date that made Pevensey the last major mistic reading is that among scientists, story, and adds a new dimension to the Roman project attempting to defend the where truth is valued and good behavior shadowy life of Charles Dawson. There island before the Empire abandoned it is the expected norm, it is easy to put one are a few redundant spots as one part of to the Saxon incursions. Dawson's over on your colleagues. There were good Dawson's life overlaps another, but on report was published after Louis reasons for suspicion of Piltdown from the whole the organization is straight­ Salzman had begun excavating at the beginning: the disturbed circum­ forward. For the non-archaeological Pevensey, but claimed that the bricks stances of the finds, the uncertainty of the reader, better explanation of carbon had been found some years earlier. archaeological and anatomical connec­ dating and a few other technicalities Conveniently, Salzman found and pub­ tions between cranium and mandible, would help. There are also a surprising lished on a brick with a partial inscrip­ and the convenient discovery of support­ number of small typos in a book other­ tion, only readable in light of Dawson's ing finds when they were called for. As in wise up to Tempus's high standard. find. However, the fabric and the writ­ all good hoaxes, the desires and scientific Good illustrations represent many of ing on the bricks is not quite like other agendas of Keith and other authorities the finds and personalities. There are a Roman brick, and modern thermolumi- steamrolled the doubts, substantially few loose ends, as when the destruction nescence dates show that they are mod­ aided by the reputations and good names of Dawson's papers in 1917 is men­ ern forgeries. Patterns emerge that are of Dawson and his duped associates. tioned but not explained, but on the repeated at Piltdown: Dawson modifies Dawson's collaborator Arthur Woodward, whole this is a satisfying and well- genuine finds, creates new ones, misre- who was apparently a victim of the decep­ written piece of historic detection that ports circumstances, and plants evi­ tion, spent the rest of his life defending should be of wide interest.

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 51 BOOK REVIEWS

die legend come not from reality but GHOST The Mary Celeste: A Very from fiction. The first was written in 1883 by Arthur Conan Doyle, before he Plausible Explanation created Sherlock Holmes. It was his first TERENCE M. HINES major literary publication and appeared

raui iron at ••<• anonymously in Cornhill's Magazine. It is Ghost Ship: The Mysterious True Story of the Mary Celeste in this tale that the story of the still-warm MMIIHI ' ••» and her Missing Crew. By Brian Hicks. Ballantine Books, meals on the table first appeared. (No BRIAN HICKS New York, 2004. ISBN 0-345-46391-9. 288 pp. such meals were, in fact, found.) It is also Hardcover, $25.95. from this story that the common mis­ spelling "Marie Celeste" originated. The first heard of the mystery of the Mary bound for Europe with a cargo of indus­ story tells of the experiences of a New Celeste many years ago by way of a trial alcohol. Captain Briggs was a mem­ England doctor who was a passenger on Iprinted placemat at a restaurant on ber of a distinguished sailing family from the ship and who escaped the murder of the outer banks of North Carolina. It told die famous maritime community of New the entire crew. The story is written in the the story of the ship being found drifting Bedford, Massachusetts. He was an excel­ first person by the "doctor." It is clear now in the Atlantic without lifeboats, widi no lent sailor, with a well-deserved reputation that the story has numerous glaring crew aboard, hot meals still warm on the for honesty. A interesting portion of the errors, but at the time, the incident was galley table, no signs of violence, the log book is devoted to Briggs and his family. recent enough that the appearance of the book still on board, and the crew's posses­ A pan of the story that was unknown story caused die ever-suspicious Flood to sions, including wet-weadier gear, all pre­ to me until I read this book is what hap­ try to restan the investigation. sent. All, or most, of the hatches were pened after the discovery of the drifting Doyle most likely intended his story as open. The crew was never heard from ship by the American ship the Dei Gratia. a piece of fiction, not a hoax. This was not again. The question of why the crew left At considerable risk to both ships, die true of odier attempts oudined in the and what happened to them has been small crew of the Dei Gratia was split in book. One told of the deathbed revelation generating interest since the discovery of two, with half going aboard the Mary of a servant to his employer, one Howard the Mary Celeste 500 miles west of Spain Celeste to sail her to Gibraltar to claim her Linford, the "headmaster of a prominent on December 4, 1872. The mystery as salvage. It was expected that die salvage prep school outside London." Linford became a national, even international, hearing would be a short and simple one. cooked up the story of his servant's talc sensation. The fact that Captain It was not. British officials, especially an and published it in Strand magazine, iron­ Benjamin Spooner Briggs had his wife admiralty-court officer named Frederick ically the place where the original Sara and two-year-old daughter Sophia Solly Flood, turned the salvage hearings Sherlock Holmes stories first appeared. on board simply added to the interest in into almost a trial of the men of the Dei In any book about a mystery ship in the event. Since then, there have been Gratia, whom Flood somehow suspected the Atlantic, the topic of the Bermuda numerous attempts to explain why the of foul play in the matter. The hearing Triangle will appear, and so it does in this crew vanished. The explanations have run lasted for months and ended up casting book. Happily, Hicks gives shon shrift to from die mildly plausible (e.g., abandon­ shadows on die reputation of the crew the Triangle nonsense and cites Larry ment in a storm, mutiny, murder, pirates, of the Dei Gratia. Toward die end of Kusche's superb debunking in The insurance fraud) to die ludicrous (e.g., the proceedings, Flood even suggested Bermuda Triangle Mystery Solved. Unfor­ disappearing islands, UFO abductions, diat die missing crew of the Mary Celeste tunately, he does dwell rather longer than Bermuda Triangle effects). might have been involved somehow. needed on the nonmystery of Flight 19. Hicks tells the story of the brigantine In die end, die court did award prize While he certainly doesn't give credence Mary Celeste, starting with the building of money to the crew of the Dei Gratia, but to any supernatural explanations, his the ship in Nova Scoria in 1861. It was the sum was much less than it should description of die events does leave die not originally named the Mary Celeste but have been, the low amount being used as impression that he diinks die whole thing die Amazon. She had held her new name a punishment, even though the court is still very mysterious. Hicks is appar- for only three years, when, on November could not prove any wrongdoing on die endy unaware diat Kusche has also dior- 7, 1872, the ship sailed from New York pan of the crew. oughly explained that mystery in his book Hicks also deals at some length with The Disappearance of Flight 19. Terence M. Mines is a professor of psychol­ hoaxes and fictionalized accounts of the Hicks's telling of the history of the ogy at Pace University and the author of Mary Celeste, a section of the book I Mary Celeste and die people and placed Pseudoscience and the Paranormal (sec­ found among die most interesting. In associated with her are all first-rate. But, ond edition, Prometheus Books, 2003). fact, several of the well known "details" in of course, what really makes the book so

52 January/February 200S SKEPTICAL INQUIRER BOOK REVIEWS

interesting is die solution to the mystery them because they expected to come back to was supposed to be a stout rope, die peak that Hicks proposes. A common sugges­ the ship. The ship's cargo was wooden halyard. The plan was that after die airing tion has been diat the crew abandoned casks of alcohol. This had led to specula­ out, diey would pull and row die lifeboat the ship in a storm and took to die tion of drunken rages on the part of the back to the ship, and all would be well. lifeboats. But why would one abandon a crew. But the cargo was most likely indus- But, in this scenario, a gale blew up large ship that was obviously seawordiy trial alcohol, and when it was inspected, it quickly and the rope broke. In fact, die for a tiny lifeboat in a storm? Or perhaps was found to be largely intact, with, how­ peak halyard was found snapped and the crew thought the ship was about to ever, several casks empty, likely through hanging into die water when die ship was sink and dius took to the lifeboats. It is evaporation. This would have meant that found. This rope, unlike die odier rigging true that when the ship was found, there about 450 gallons of the chemical would on die ship, was old and weak. So, die was some water in her bilges, but not have been loose in the ship's sealed hold in poor crew is left in die lifeboat as the enough to worry experienced sailors. And vaporous form, posing a serious problem. Mary Celeste sails away on her own. A if they really thought the ship was going The only way to get rid of die fumes truly horrible and tragic deadi. to sink, they would have taken at least would be to unseal die hold. But die It seems to me diat Hicks's account is some of their possessions with them, and fumes would have been strong enough to die most plausible and parsimonious one certainly the wet-weather clothing. In the be dangerous to the crew. In the weeks yet proposed for die mystery of die Mary next paragraph, I will reveal Hicks's solu­ previous to December 4, that area of die Celeste. It accounts for die more mysteri­ tion, which I find highly plausible. Since Atlantic had had a time of very calm ous characteristics of the ship when the book reads like an excellent mystery winds, a condition excellent for the found, such as die open hatches and all story, if you don't want to know the solu­ buildup of dangerous fumes in the hold personal possessions as well as die wet- tion, stop reading now and buy the book. and very poor for any attempt at ventila­ weadier gear still being onboard. And it While die crew did obviously leave the tion. Hicks suggests that as more normal does so without the introduction of extra­ ship, diey took nodiing with them. Hicks weather returned. Captain Briggs ordered neous and unlikely events such as mass makes an important point, one appar- the ship "aired out." During diat time, he, murder, waterspouts, UFOs, and the like. endy not made before in die annals of the his family, and the crew went into die In short, Hicks has written die definitive Mary Celeste. The crew took nodiing with lifeboat that was tied to the ship by what work on this case. SCIENCE BEST SELLERS Top Ten Best Sellers

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 53 NEW BOOKS

Listing does not preclude future review. able book Damned Lies and Statistics. In his ship is also evident in its thorough docu­ new book. Best analyzes and evaluates dodgy mentation and voluminous references. The New How Things numbers from across die social and political Bigfoot Exposed should be of interest to Work: Everyday Technol­ spectrum, including schoolyard bullying, the believers and skeptics alike. ogy Explained. John Lan- September 11 attacks, missing children, and gone. National Geographic the number of deaths caused by both lung Kepler's Witch: An As­ Society, 2004. 272 pp. cancer and falling coconuts. Through it all, tronomer's Discovery of $35, hardcover. In a Best provides dozens of examples of mislead­ Cosmic Order Amid world where technologi­ ing statistics and shows that you don't have Religious War, Political cal developments outpace our ability to to be a statistician to identify bogus numbers Intrigue, and the Heresy understand them, John Langone, a science and their use in fallacious arguments about trial of His Mother. writer and former associate editor at Time social issues. Chapters include Missing James A. Connor. Harper magazine, has produced a science book that Numbers, Confusing Numbers, Scary San Francisco, 2004. 402 explains the inner workings of some of the Numbers, Authoritative Numbers, Magical pp. $24.94, hardcover. most common technological devices that Numbers, and Contentious Numbers. Best affect our lives. This is the sort of book that Richly told story of Johannes Kepler, the makes a good gift for children, liberally concludes with a short but incisive discus­ "Protestant Galileo" and the father of celestial sprinkled with large, lush photographs and sion on how to improve the nation's statisti­ mechanics and of much of modern optics, set clear diagrams. Yet the text itself is sparse and cal literacy. He points out that in school and amidst the backdrop of the Reformation and written for adults, with each topic only given college, "Statistics textbooks...all but ignore Counter-Reformation and showing not only four or five paragraphs. The information is the sorts of issues raised in this book the surprisingly spiritual nature of early mod­ necessarily superficial, especially given the Statistics is usually understood as a branch of ern science but Kepler's role as a neglected amount of space devoted to large and color­ mathematics, hence the focus on calculation. hero of conscience. The witch of the title was ful—but not particularly informative—pho­ But statistics classes largely ignore the ways Kepler's elderly mother, Katharina, who was tographs. (Instead of a full-page stock photo statistics are used as evidence for under­ tried for witchcraft in a sensational trial that of a handful of dead batteries, how about a standing social issues as well as the ways peo­ serves as the author's doorway to Kepler's life simple diagram showing the positive and ple count." This book, like its predecessor, is and times (he uses never-before-translated negative electron flow?) Since the Additional essential reading for the public at large and transcripts of the trial). A lively, human- Reading section is positively anemic, each skeptics in particular. oriented history of science and of human entry would have been better had they irrationality and worse. included sources for additional information. Bigfoot Exposed: An The book is hardly comprehensive but cov­ Anthropologist Examines True to Life: Why Truth ers well over a hundred topics, such as auto­ America's Enduring Matters. Michael P Lynch. mobiles, tunnels, synthetic fibers, digital Legend. David J. Daeg- Massachusetts Institute of cameras, glassmaking, laser surgery, photo­ ling. Rowman & Little- I Technology Press, 2004. copiers, and telescopes. Other, less obvious field Publishing, 2005. I 205 pp., $27.95, hard- processes are explained in a few paragraphs 288 pp., $72 hardcover, I cover. Michael Lynch such as elements of construction, sewing and $25.95 paperback. In his argues that truth matters, knitting, and even the Stock Exchange. mm new book Bigfoot Exposed in both our personal and Entries are cross-referenced, and the book David Daegling (an associate professor of professional lives. Lynch includes a glossary and index. anthropology at the University of Florida) examines theses including that truth matters, guides readers through a forest of hoaxes, that truth is a worthy goal of inquiry, and that eyewitness accounts, and controversies it is good to believe what is true. The dust jacket asks, "Why docs truth matter, when More Damned Lies and within the Bigfoot community, often draw­ ing upon his academic background. politicians so easily sidestep it and intellectu­ Statistics: How Num­ Daegling authored or co-authored several als scorn it as irrelevant?" Lynch, an associate bers Confuse Public SKEPTICAL INQUIRER articles on Sasquatch, professor of philosophy, thankfully avoids the Issues. Joel Best. Univ­ including "Bigfoot's Screen Test" (May/June stultifying jargon and impenetrable prose that ersity of California Press, 1999) and "Cripplefoot Hobbled" (March/ sometimes accompanies philosophical books 2004. 200 pp., $19.95. April 2002). The book is divided into eleven like these. It is written for the intelligent lay Hardcover. Over the past chapters, among them The Natural History reader interested in examining the basis for months of presidential of Bigfoot, the Social History of Bigfoot, some (apparendy) self-evident truths about election campaigning, The Patterson Film, Three Red Herrings, truth. Lynch's discussion is lucid (if a bit dry hundreds of statistics have been tossed and the Eyewitness Problem. Though there in places), and he tackles postmodern philoso­ around by all sides: Numbers of jobs gained arc dozens of books on die topic, Bigfoot phers who suggest that truth is subjective and or lost, number of dollars spent on Iraq, per­ Exposed is one of the first to seriously and irrelevant. A good companion to Sissela Bok's centages of unemployed or without health critically examine the whole subject from a book Lying. True to Life is an insightful and care, and so on. Some of the numbers arc skeptical point of view. Daegling does not timely examination of the ultimate basis for accurate, others purposely inflated or low- adopt a dismissive, debunking stance but skepticism: that what is true matters. balled, still others seemingly plucked from instead examines the claims and controver­ thin air. To help us son through this (often sies clearly and objectively, presenting sev­ intentionally) confusing mathematical eral sides to arguments. The book's scholar- —Benjamin Radford and morass, Joel Best follows up his indispens­ Kendrick Frazier

54 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FORUM It's a Bird, It's a Plane, It's... an Angel?

DAVE BROOKS

ogic is a wonderful thing— don't know") and then went to which makes it kind of the Source of All Knowledge, Lalarming to find out how the Internet. There, he hunted easily our minds will heave it out down an article on Space.com the window. explaining what he had seen. Ask Bob Peret, a Sun Micro­ Turns out, his angel was a systems software engineer, who NASA rocket releasing excess was outside his Mont Vernon fuel in the upper atmosphere home one night when he and at about 9 P.M. on August 31, eight friends, relaxing after a 2004, after launching a mountain-bike ride, spotted a National Reconnaissance bizarre glowing object in the sky. Office satellite. "Dumping Here's how Peret described excess fuel is the usual prac­ it in an e-mail: "It was approxi­ tice for all Centaur-booster mately the size of the moon. It assisted launches," said die looked like two overlapping Space.com article. "It happens disks. I took out my binocu­ after spacecraft separation; the lars, and ... it looked like a fuel bleeding off from a Centaur horizontal line with wisps upper rocket stage on its second arching off the top and bottom orbit after launch. Being just after on each side. It slowly drifted east- nightfall, the cloud of fuel was still northeast, and faded away after about sunlit at that altitude." an hour." The article included comments from several other puzzled observers Very odd. But even odder, at least to most of us against succumbing to the Peret, was part of his reaction. He later from throughout the Northeast, so our exotic lure of die unknown. local spotters weren't alone. recalled: "I'm an analytical person, I'm That lure goes something like this: "I But it doesn't say how many of diem an engineer. But when my friend said, can't think of a natural explanation for found dieir worldview tottering for an 'It looks like an angel,' I said, 'You what I think I'm seeing, therefore it must instant. "For a split second I was ready know, it does look like the wings of an have a supernatural cause." Poke hard to throw away everything I know about angel,' and for a split second it runs enough and you'll find such a thought science," Peret said. "It's interesting to through my mind: 'That's an angel, and process behind most UFOs, ghosts, alien it's the end of the world!'" visitations, and what have you. see how ready you are to give up every­ thing you know." Before donning sackcloth and ashes Peret knew several possible expiana- Interesting, indeed. Thank goodness or carrying a sign down Main Street tions for what he was seeing, although most of us don't succumb. warning, "The end is nigh," however, they didn't seem quite right. One is noc- Peret came to his senses. "Then I tiluccnt clouds, which are so high up diat Do we? thought, nah," he said. the sun illuminates diem long after it has With such certainty is superstition set; anodier is exploding meteors, which David Brooks writes the weekly "Science held at bay. create a debris cloud that can also catch from the Sidelines" column in The As an enthusiastic backyard astron­ post-sunset rays. Telegraph of Nashua (New Hampshire). omer who has seen lots of odd stuff in Still dissatisfied, Peret e-mailed me This originally appeared on September 8, the sky, Peret has more defenses than the next day (my helpful response: "I 2004. E-maiL [email protected].

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 55 FORUM

Stupid Things

RALPH ESTLING

"The twelve jurors were all writing sibility is achieved, the hold is unbreak­ tributary of the Amazon exists whose very busily on slates. 'What are they able, the faith unshakable, the unreason members are, almost to a man and doing?' Alice whispered to the Gryphon. They can't have anything to unshatterable, a citadel of credulity unas­ woman, completely sensible and fully put down yet, before the trial's begun.' sailable, invulnerable, a warhorse the cogent, but I think we should not spend 'They're putting down their Voice of the Whirlwind informed Job too much of our time considering the names,' the Gryphon whispered in that saidi among the trumpets, ha, ha. likelihood. This fact alone points to the reply, 'for fear they should forget Of course, we know mis all too well burden of my theme: Unrestrained them before the end of the trial.' for me or anyone to dwell on this imbecility and rampant insanity apart, 'Stupid things!' Alice began in a loud indignant voice. . . . remarkable quality of automystification. natural selection favors the fantastically Alice could see, as well as if she The real question I'd like to raise is this: devout believer in absurdities. were looking over their shoulders, that Is there some sort of Darwinian selectiv­ Historians and cultural anthropolo­ all the jurors were writing down ity involved whereby people and indeed, gists would disagree. Darwinian selectiv­ 'Stupid things!' on their slates, and she could even make out that one of them whole groups and nations which fer­ ity favors the guy with the bigger brain, didn't know how to spell 'stupid.'..." vently cling to codswallop, the fantasy they maintain, die Cro-Magnon over fanatics, possess an enhanced fitness for the Neanderthal. I suggest they think —Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland survival over die merely rational? more deeply. Cro-Magnons, in fact, had A cursory glance over die history of a slightly smaller brain than Neander­ think I'm fairly safe in saying that it mankind would seem to suggest this. thals but admittedly that is beside the will probably not come as a terrible The question is: Would a much closer point, the point being that they had a shock to readers of SKEPTICAL I study of human societies over the past better organized brain. But better orga­ INQUIRER when I state unequivocally ten thousand years, from the end of me nized in what kind of way? and in rather categorical terms my belief last Ice Age, say, and the beginnings of Conceptually better. They could that a great many people believe in a agriculture, reveal the natural superiority conceive vastly more, both physical and great many stupid things. of individuals and societies that profited spiritual, than Neanderthals. In matters Even when they have no particular over odier individuals and societies that dealing widi technology, this was a dis­ difficulty in recollecting dieir names or espoused a slightly lower level of convic­ tinct advantage. They could conceive, in spelling stupid, human beings hold tion in die demonstrably irrational? and thereafter bring into being, the bow hard to nonsense of all sorts, varieties, There is nodiing to be gained in and arrow, the spear-thrower, the finely and descriptions. And it appears tiiat the comparing the unreasonable persons flaked axe, and teach themselves how to greater the nonsense and less likely die and societies with persons and societies use these things with exquisite artistry. truth, die harder the hold, in an eerie possessing total reasonableness, because They could create beautiful paintings of kind of inverse relation to the law of such persons are at best rather rare, and the animals they were preparing to hunt diminishing returns, so mat when total no such society has ever been known to and kill in ritual anticipation of die nonsense and complete and utter impos- exist. It is, I suppose, conceivable that slaughter to come. They could dance some as-yet undiscovered tribe hidden around die fire in propitiation of the Ralph Estling writes from Ilminster, in some jungled valley of Papua New gods and appease the divine bloodlust Somerset, England. Guinea or along some little-explored with human sacrifice. The Neanderthal's

56 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FORUM brain was not constructed to allow this probability exterminated in the first Neanderthal's slant on things. 1 remem­ level of insight into the spirit world. human act of genocide. ber a cartoon in Omni magazine that Moreover, Cro-Magnons had linguistic Organization is a marvelous riling. showed a Neanderthal writing on a cave abilities far in excess of any possessed by What could be more organized and more wall "Cro-Magnons suck!" Neanderthals Neanderthals. They could speak, con­ marvelous a spectacle to behold than a might well have thought something like verse, tell stories, and deal with matters Nuremberg rally, with its flags, its trum­ this. Of course, the real point is that no that no Neanderthal could dream of pets, its serried ranks of thousands or tens Neanderthal could have done that. He doing. Cro-Magnons could thereby of thousands of organized human beings, was not sophisticated enough. But invent religion, with its gods and all shouting exactly alike, all tJiinking the descendants of Cro-Magnon can. demons, a personified Nature of com­ same thing, the epitome, the apotheosis Perhaps we had better rethink our plete capriciousness and with a malevo­ of Cro-Magnon organization. ideas about stupid things and which, stu­ lence and vindictiveness that was won­ Historians and cultural anthropolo­ pidity or intelligence, is natures darling. drous to behold. A Nature like them- gists and the human race in general favor Otherwise, the gods we invent in our selves; gods that were their mirror the Cro-Magnon because of all this and complex, organized brains may scream at image. And, above all, Cro-Magnons because they, we, are Cro-Magnon's us out of the whirlwind as they screamed could hate their fellow Cro-Magnons descendants, he is us, and therefore we at Job when he had the temerity to ask with a passion and tenacity that left hold him in the highest esteem. Add, why they were so unremittingly unjust, Neanderthals out of the running, too, the fact that it is always the victor and point to the warhorse, who, in sub­ though by then there were no who compiles the history books. We lime contrast, asks no questions among Neanderthals to run, having been in all never have and never will learn rhe the trumpets and only laughs.

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 57 FOLLOW-UP

Some Reasons for Caution about the Bigfoot Film Expose

For skeptics, the revelation of a hoax can provide valuable insights but may also contain pitfalls.

MICHAEL DENNETT

ver the past three years, the sonal opinions of diose he talked with a most credible case he was the man in an Bigfoot community has been and the dubious claims by one man, Bob ape suit in the Patterson film. But The Obuffeted by the deaths of its Heironimus; that it was him who wore Making of Bigfoot does not, as Korff sug­ two biggest proponents, Rene Dahinden the 'suit' on that October day in 1967." gests, prove Heironimus's case. While I and Grover Krantz. More recently, the But not all reviews have been nega­ find Heironimus believable, diere are death of Ray Wallace permitted his son tive. The often skeptical UFO newslet­ glaring problems widi die tale, and SI and nephew to reveal that their relative ter, Saucer Smear, gave the book a good editor Ken Frazier has granted me this had faked the "original"1 Bigfoot ttacks but qualified review,' and not surpris­ space to present a second perspective. near Bluff Creek, California. And now, a ingly, the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER ran an Significantly, Heironimus has no book by Greg Long, The Making of article by Kal Korff and Michaela Kocis objective evidence that he was Roger Bigfoot, has seriously, perhaps fatally, based on Long's book (July/August Patterson's accomplice, despite a claim damaged the credibility of the famous 2004). In their article, Korff and Kocis made to Long that he could prove he Patterson film. (For those readers not write: "After nearly forty years of secrecy, played the creature in the film. He does intimately versed in Sasquatch lore, the the truth behind the world-famous not have the "ape suit" or any other Patterson film has been the best photo­ Roger Patterson Bigfoot film has been objective evidence. One of die two wit­ graphic evidence for the possible exis­ revealed. The man who actually wore nesses to Heironimus's brief possession tence of an unknown giant bipedal crea­ die costume and played the role of of die "ape suit" was an eight-year-old ture living in North America.) Bigfoot in the film has been located and boy at the time, and the other is Since the publication of Long's book, has made a full confession. Moreover, Heironimus's mother. Some of the cor­ every issue of the Bigfoot Times newslet­ the husband and wife team who made roborating witness accounts are com­ ter has carried critical commentary on and sold the Bigfoot costume that pletely contradictory as well. Several some aspect of the book. Editor Daniel Patterson used to fake his movie have people interviewed by Long claim that Perez, writing in the March 2004 issue, also confessed, and several other impor­ Heironimus showed them die "ape suit," said, "I think this book [ The Making of tant eyewitnesses have come forth with a claim Heironimus strongly denies. Bigfoot] is junk. Don't buy it." In the fol­ corroborating evidence." These conflicting testimonies show lowing issue, Bigfoot researcher Peter As a CSICOP Scientific and Tech­ the weaknesses of such accounts and why Byrne called Long's work "amateurish, nical Consultant, I feel diat die Korff as skeptics we must be cautious. If we are impetuous and careless." Yet a third article may have overstated some of the to believe die Heironimus account (and reviewer writes: "In short Mr. Long's issues. Having followed Sasquatch activi­ it is most plausible), how do we incorpo­ entire diesis is based on hearsay and per- ties in the Pacific Northwest for over rate the odier statements, made by hon­ twenty years, I am well aware of die key est-sounding individuals, who say they Michael Dennett's first SI article on issues related to die Patterson film, and saw an ape suit in Heironimus's car when Bigfoot appeared in the Fall 1982 issue. many of die people in die Long book are he clearly says diey didn't? Appropriately, the article was an account individuals I have met or talked widi over Greg Long explains in his book that of a Bigfoot hoaxer coming forward to die years.' I believe it would be more he made no payment to Heironimus, admit his involvement in the legend of accurate to state that Long has found a nor was any other financial gain a condi­ Sasquatch. man, Bob Heironimus, who has provided tion of the story being revealed. I am

58 January/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER FOLLOW-UP sure this is true. However, Long does not have consisted of eight parts, not the gram he was featured in), a man named explain why almost a year elapsed from three described by Heironimus. Jerry Romney, not Heironimus, is iden­ the time Heironimus's attorney broke Korff then goes on to explain: tified as the "man in the ape suit." the story (but did not reveal "Morris distincdy told Patterson how to Romney is even shown doing an impres­ Heironimus's name) and the time he hide this zipper from view, advising him sive simulation of the "walk" in die contacted Long. A possible reason, not to comb down the fur on the suit with a Patterson film, sans the suit. known to either Long or Korff, is that brush. Sure enough, this Bigfoot, a wild What the two accounts by Morris another writer was shopping the story to creature presumably living in the wilder­ and Heironimus illustrate is how con­ mainstream book publishers. I know this (although I did not know Heironimus's name at the time), because the writer, a former Yakima-area newspaperman, met Long has found a man. Bob Heironimus, with me and a colleague of mine over who has provided a most credible case he was lunch. During our meeting, we were told there would be no book if there was no the man in an ape suit in the Patterson film. profit. It was my impression the (as- But The Making of Bigfoot does not, as Korff then-unnamed) hoaxer was a financial partner. I was skeptical the writer would suggests, prove Heironimus's case. find a major publishing firm interested in the story but offered to help verify, if possible, certain aspects of the account. ness, is remarkably clean and carefully vincing both accounts can be, when If I am correct (and admittedly this is groomed." I don't know how many wild only one can be correct. I find it inter­ conjecture), Heironimus did have a animals Korff has seen, but of the hun­ esting to read Bigfoot Times and note profit motive. All this does not mean dreds I have had the chance to observe, how skeptical of witness narratives all that the Heironimus account is untrue, including a big black bear last year, I can­ the Bigfoot proponents have become. simply that Long did not ask all the hard not remember a single unkempt animal. When the point of Heironimus having questions he might have during his mul­ Perhaps a bigger problem with the no profit motive came up, at least one tiple interviews/ Morris story is Patterson paying for a suit Bigfoot proponent pointed out how Korff tells us that Philip Morris, even though Long's book spends at least people will say things for the strangest of "who made and sold the Bigfoot cos­ a hundred pages explaining how talented reasons, many of them incomprehensi­ tume that Patterson used to fake his Patterson was at making things and how ble to others (something skeptics have movie," has confessed. The impression he seldom paid for anytJiing, especially known for a long time). When the Korff leaves is that the Heironimus and something he could construct for him­ accounts favor a more prosaic view, can Morris accounts agree, but they don't, at self. As a skeptic, I am unable to accept Bigfoot doubters be any less skeptical? least not to me. Heironimus says that Morris's story, for I find the account of Notes Patterson made the costume from a red Patterson's resourcefulness, artistic capa­ 1. The legend of Bigfoot predates the famous horsehide, while Morris says his suit was bilities, and lack of capital much more August 1958 discovery by Jerry Crew, near Bluff made of an artificial fiber. Heironimus, believable. Long does establish, beyond Creek, California, of a scries of Bigfoot prints. But who owned his own horse and went to any reasonable doubt, that Patterson was an AP story and. later, a True magazine article pumped new life into die tale, and a "modern" era rodeos, would presumably know the dif­ a man with the ability, aptitude, and of tracks and sightings began. Significantly, this is ference between horsehide and nylon motive to fake a Bigfoot film. He does the same area where Patterson filmed die famous footage. For an excellent account, see Mark fibers. Heironimus said the suit con­ this through multiple interviews with Chorvinsky's "Our Strange World," Fate maga­ sisted of three parts: a bottom, a mid­ people who were both friends and vic­ zine, July 1993 and November 1993. section, and a head, while Morris says tims of Patterson and then supplements 2. The Saucer Smear article (appearing in two the suit consisted of six parts, one for testimony with objective court records, pans in die May and June 2004 issues) was written by co-editor Karl Pflock. and although each limb, a middle section, and a head. contracts, and photographs. it praises die book, it also voices reasonable Morris says the feet bottoms in his cos­ As skeptics, what would we do if reservations. tume were black, yet they are white in someone with a more credible account 3. For additional reading on Bigfoot, sec my articles in SI, Spring 1989. "Evidence for the film. Morris says the arms could be of perpetrating a hoax stepped forward Bigfoot?" and Fall 1994. "Bigfoot Evidence: Arc extended by using sticks for the gloves, tomorrow? Certainly, one would think These Tracks Real?" whereas Heironimus says nothing about that Korff would have considered this 4. Long is a first-class interviewer, yet dierc are basic limitations to die interview format, any arm extensions. In fact, if the possibility, for in the television docu­ especially if the subject wishes to withhold Morris costume had "gloves" it would mentary World's Greatest Hoaxes (a pro­ information. LJ

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 59 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

relations personnel to the consequences of I have little doubt that the study reported by being credulous and naive about less-than- Cha et al. on prayer increasing IVF success scientific studies. is flawed and/or fraud, as suggested in the Editor's Note and Bruce Flamm's article. It Maxwell E. Siegel should come as no surprise that, as a sub­ Sussex, New Jersey scriber to SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, I expect claims to be backed up by evidence and sound reasoning. That said, nothing in the Grateful thanks are due to Professor Bruce September/October issue did anything to Flamm for his painstaking and decisive increase my certainty that the Cha et al. pricking of yet another (this one apparently study was inaccurate. Neither the Editor's impregnable) "efficacy of prayer" balloon. Note nor the Flamm article provided evi­ If, as seems probable, the "study" was dential or rational arguments against the entirely fabricated (not the sort of Gedanken conclusions drawn by Cha et al. The presen­ experiment Einstein had in mind), the need tation presuming to refute the claim of for replication and confirmation by others is prayer-induced increases in fertility con­ emphasized as the only way science can sisted primarily of: 1) an attack on a portion purge itself of fraud and error. of the study (prayer groupings) that appears Those who believe in prayer must be irrelevant to the overall conclusion, 2) an constantly dismayed by the capriciousness "appeal to authority" (Occam's razor), 3) a and apparent cruelty of the Almighty. In the personal attack on the source (for potential present report, many of the women in the unethical behavior in other contexts), and nominally "not prayed for" group must have Exposing Columbia's 4) a preconceived disdain for any paranor­ indeed been prayed for, long and fervently, Prayer/Fertility Study mal claim. by their nearest and dearest. What are we to 1 will not be renewing my subscription. Bruce Flamm ("The Columbia University make of a God who is deaf to the entreaties 'Miracle' Study: Flawed and Fraud," of people's loved ones but bends the Divine Jeff Hollerman September/October 2004) writes, "The Ear to the requests of strangers? [email protected] study's results could only be described as Bernard Howard miraculous. This was welcome and wonderful Christchurch news for a shaken nation." 1 first read about Clinical studies of "healing prayer" get me New Zealand this study in the issue of the magazine The thinking about what would happen if such Week dated 19 October 2001, in which studies actually showed a meaningful posi­ Rogerio Lobo (described as a "Columbia tive result. It seems that before long someone Dr. Bruce Flamm's behind-the-scenes work University researcher") was the only author on the Columbia University prayer study was would want to know what parameters lead to mentioned by name. 1 was still, of course, pro­ a great example of how the public can be the overall success. Was it the number of foundly shaken by the September 11 attacks, deceived through legitimate sources of infor­ people praying? Perhaps the wording of the but, as an alumnus of Columbia, 1 did not mation (The Journal of Reproductive prayers was significant, die religious affilia­ consider this study to be "welcome and won­ Medicine). I can see why the authors would tions of the prayers (or perhaps of the derful news." 1 immediately sent the clipping not want to talk with Dr. Flamm, as they pre­ healed/helped). and the following letter to the Columbia sumably knew about dieir own biases, agen­ Follow-up studies witli modified parame­ newspaper, the Columbia Daily Spectator. das, and histories. But I wonder why the JRM ters would try to identify die critical vari­ would not answer questions from Dr. Flamm. ables. Should prayers be directed at God, What is this garbage? Who is this guy? It's easy to believe that Congress can be sim­ I wonder when they knew they had such a some particular saint, or other deity? Are ple-minded enough to give credence to stinker of a research paper on their hands. there particular people who are more effective Elizabeth Targ and her crew of creedbound I also found on the Web at www.biomed than others at praying, and why: denomina­ dimwits, but Columbia University? My tion, credentials, piety, etc.? How many peo­ Columbia? I suspect that someone is plot­ central.com/news/20040614/04/ that Har­ ting to devalue my degrees to the level of old G. Koenig at the Duke University ple are necessary for praying effectiveness? the ("state-authorized"!) Kepler College of Medical Center, who studies the relationship Of course, all of this would raise even Astrological Arts and Sciences in Seattle. between spirituality and health, cautioned more interesting philosophical questions. If (I'm not making diis up. you know.) that whether the report contains falsifica­ God has a plan, why can he be persuaded to tions still remains unknown. "It could be a modify it? Is God susceptible to group pres­ Very truly yours. completely legitimate study," he noted. He Max Siegel sure? Why can a group of people who don't also told The Scientist that Flamm is a even know the target person of their prayers Unfortunately, I do not know if this letter "known skeptic." be more effective than the family and was ever published in the Spectator, but I do I guess from Koenig's perspective, it is friends of the afflicted? Unfortunately, these believe that an outpouring of outrage, disbe­ better to be swayed by a "known criminal" questions wouldn't be answered by clinical lief, and ridicule from alumni whenever a than a "known skeptic." studies. major educational institution commits a gaffe of diis magnitude would go far toward Carl Perrin Robin McMeeking sensitizing administrators and public- [email protected] Pinckney, Michigan

60 January/february 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Bruce Flamm replies: "Abduction" is a fancy name for hypothesis Do we really believe that the universe is truly generation. In fact, Meyer and Dembski pre­ fine-tuned for life? With humanity forever My sincere thanks to those who took the time to sent a hypothesis to explain the Big Bang. at war and nearly all life-forms destroying write letters about my investigation oj the Universes are not usually created by Big Bangs, one another to survive, one has to won­ flawed Columbia University "Miracle" Study. they claim ("surprising faa"), but supernatural der, why the fight over bragging rights for As for Mr. Hollerman, I must point out that creators do it usually with Big Bangs or at least this subject? the SI article was too brief to include an in- more often so than natural processes. Charles Karelitz depth analysis of the many flaws in the (Genesis?) Clearly, they assume quite a lot Honolulu, Hawaii Cha/Wirth/Lobo study. My critiques pub­ about physics and supernatural beings. lished in the Scientific Review of Alternative Bayesian analysis is a sledgehammer to Medicine give more comprehensive explana­ crack this nut. Bayesian analysis is fine if one tions. In any case, a study design that is bewil­ Mark Perakh's article brings to mind a Frank deals with chance events, i.e., events for which dering and virtually incomprehensible cannot and Ernest cartoon from many years ago it makes sense to discuss their probability. be called irrelevant to the study's overall conclu­ which represents the same idea with wonder­ But "the probability of a supernatural sions and invoking Occam's razor is not an ful succinctness. The disheveled duo are creation of the universe" doesn't exist. There appeal to authority but rather an appeal to standing in the C.I. A. building in front of sound principles. An ad hominem attack are no conceivable experiments that yield an the building directory. The directory fea­ against one of the authors would be unfair if, estimate for such a probability. Skeptics tured a large arrow with the message "You as you suggested, it focused on "potential uneth­ should stick to science and not use undefin- are here." Frank observed to Ernest, "They ical behavior" in "other contexts." However, able probabilities. The same holds for fine- sure keep track of you, don't they?" there is nothing "potential" about the author's tuning for life. Life other than the kind we unethical behavior and it is not in "another know is hard to define, and the "probability Norman P. Carlson context." The author in question, Daniel that the universe is fine-tuned for life" is Busti, New York Wirth, recently pled guilty to multiple felony another of those unnecessary entities Occam fraud charges and possible fraud is a key issue warned us about. surrounding the Cha/Wirth/Lobo study. Jan Willem Nienhuys Teach the Controversy' Finally, I cheerfully plead guilty to being skep­ Waalre, Netherlands tical of paranormal and supernatural claims. Robert Camp's excellent article, "'Teach the Controversy': An Intelligently Designed Ruse" (September/October 2004), overlooks Mark Perakh makes a good case against the a certain ambiguity in the slogan "teach the necessity of a deity in the origins of the uni­ controversy." Anthropic Principle verse. However, is there really any evidence Examined for such a principle in the first place? The Originally, when the phrase appeared, it was indeed used, as Camp says, to represent principle, at root, rests on the "Goldilocks" "Intelligent Design" as "a combatant in a sci­ After reading "The Anthropic Principle concept of the universe being "just right" for entific controversy." Increasingly, however, and the Big Bang: Natural or organic life (and, more specifically, for the Discovery Institute's Center for Science Supernatutal," (September/October 2004) organic sentient human life). and Culture—the main institutional home I can only say that scientists can never say At the present time, the human race, of "Intelligent Design"—is disclaiming any they fully understand the universe. When and, so far as we presently know, all desire for "Intelligent Design" to be taught scientists feel they understand the universe organic life, is confined to a single, small in the public schools. "Teach the contro­ by looking through their Hubble tele­ planet which does indeed provide "just versy" is now frequently used to describe the scope, they then find out more new and right" conditions (though, of course, idea of teaching evolution's "strengths and mysterious things about the universe that much of that is due to our adaptation to weaknesses," or evidence "for and against" they are unable to explain. Now there is a the planet, not vice versa). However, the evolution, which in practice means misrepre­ theory that there was a universe before our vast emptiness of space is totally hostile senting the mainstream scientific literature universe existed and the Big Bang could to humanity (lack of air, deadly radia­ in such a way as to confuse the public in gen­ have happened many times before, creat­ tion, no TV dinners, etc.). All the other eral, and students in particular, about the sci­ ing various new universes. The universe moons and planets that we can study entific standing of evolution. The goal, of could be a continuing recycling machine: have, to date, proved equally inhos­ course, is to promote creationism. it diminishes to nothingness, then it starts pitable. And even most of the Earth In the wake of the Supreme Court's deci­ anew with another Big Bang, and, voila, a (deep oceans, arctic wastes) is hardly sion in Edwards v. Aguillard that teaching new universe is created. We will never have what one would call inviting. "creation science" violates the Establishment all the answers, so we shouldn't try. If the anthropic principal did indeed Clause of the First Amendment, the Institute Paul Dale Roberts exist, the evidence would surely be that the for Creation Research recommended the universe was created for a being that existed Elk Grove, California same approach: "school boards and teachers in die vacuum of space, not one confined to should be strongly encouraged at least to a tiny speck in one corner of a cold, deso­ stress the scientific evidences and arguments late cosmos. Mark Perakh's analysis of die assumptions against evolution in their classes . . . even if they don't wish to recognize these as evi­ behind the anthropic principles is needlessly Tim Hill dences and arguments for creation. . . ." complicated. Woodinville, Washington

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 61 Voodoo in New Orleans. Nickell I Some thoughts on FILL IN THE GAPS IN YOUR induction. Gardner. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2001 (vol. 25, no. 6): A critique of Schwartz et al.'s after-death communication studies. Wiseman and O'Keeffe I Magical thinking in comple­ Skeptical Inquirer COLLECTION mentary and altern ative medicine, Stevens / Educational malpractice . Moore I Philosophers and psy- • 15% discount on orders of $100 or more • chics: The Vandy epis ode. O/dfie/d / CSICOP 25th • $6.25 a copy. Vols. 1-18 ($5.00 Vols. 19-25). To order, use reply card insert • Anniversary section: Thei origins and evolution of CSI- COP.fVisbet/Neveradu I moment Karri John Edward: Hustling the bereaved. Nickell /Ernest Hemingway and NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2004 (vol. 28. no. 6): Bacteria, Nickell I The measure of a monster. Radford I The Jane. Gardner. ulcers, and ostracism? H. Pylori and the making of a Rorschach inkblot test fortune tellers, and cold reading. myth, Atwood / Science and the public, Dacey / Why Wood. Nezworski. Lilienfeld. and Garb I Can minds leave SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2001 (vol. 25. no. 5): Special SETI is science and UFOIogy is not, Moldwin I Blind bodies?. Bensley I Memory recovery techniques in psy­ Issue: Science and Religion 2001. Holy wars, Tyson / The spots, brain maps, and backaches, Hall I Stupid dino chotherapy. Lynn, tortus, Lilienfeld. and Lock. dangerous quest for cooperation between science and tricks, Martinez I Explaining the plagues of Egypt, tee / religion. Pandian I Design yes. intelligent no. Pigliucci I Special Report: Senate Intelligence MAY/JUNE 2003 (vol. 27. no. 3): The Luck A way of life for agnostics?. Lovelock I Science, religion, Committee highlights need for skeptical Factor. Wiseman I More hazards: nd the Galileo affair, Moyl The god of falling bodies, inquiry, Radford I Rorschach icons, Hypnosis, airplanes, and strongly held Stengerl The relatio Nickell. iship between paranormal beliefs beliefs. Pankratz I 'Premenstrual dys­ and religious beliefs, Sparks I Science and religion in an phoric disorder1 and 'premenstrual syn­ SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2004 (vol. 28. no. impersonal universe. Young / Arthur C. Clarke's 'Credo.' drome' myths. Flora and Sellers I A S): Can the sciences help us to make wise Clarke I A designer niverse?, Weinberg I An evolu- patently false patent myth—still!. Sass / ethical judgments?. Kurtz I The Columbia tionary-genetic wage Avise I Shroud of Turin scandals. Wired to the kitchen sink, Hall I University 'miracle' study: Flawed and Mcketf/Multiversesj id blackberries. Gardner. fraud, Flamm I Teach the controversy.' Mediumship claim responses, Schwartz Camp I The Campeche. Mexico 'infrared and Hyman / Dowsing mysterious sites. JULY/AUGUST 2001 (vol. 25. no. 4): Confronting veteri­ UFO' video, Sheaffer I The anthropic prin­ Nickell. nary medical nonsense. Imrie I Junk science and the ciple and the Big Bang: Natural or super­ law. Codes / Chevreul's report on the mysterious oscil­ natural?, Perakh / Alternative medicine MARCH/APRIL 2003 (vol. 27. no. 2): The lations of the hand-held pendulum. Spitz and and the biology departments of New Blank Slate. Pinker I Omission neglect: Marcuard I CSICOP 25th Anniversary section: A quarter- York's community colleges. Reiser / The importance of missing information, century of skeptical inquiry, Paul Kurtz I Thoughts on labyrinths: Mazes and myths. Radford I Kardes and Sanbonmatsu I Acupuncture, science and skepticism in the twenty-first century, Ships of the dead. Nickell. magic and make-believe, Wert / Walt Kendrick Frazier I Pn per criticism, Ray Hyman I The Whitman. Sloan I The James Ossuary. Nickell. ism, Pudlm I A skeptical look at JULY/AUGUST 2004 (vol. 28, no. 4): Capital punishment lighter side of skepti and homicide, Goertzel I Defending science—within JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2003 (vol. 27. no. 1): How not to Karl Popper. Gardner. reason. Haack / Exposing Roger Patterson's 1967 test mediums, Hyman I Beliefs on tri al. and the legality MAY/JUNE 2001 (vol 25. 3): The shrinking file- Bigfoot film hoax. Korff and Kocis I Pranks, frauds, and of reasonableness. Fisher I Placebos. nocebos. and chi- drawer. Stofc /The Pokemon Panic of 1997, Radford! hoaxes from around the world, Carroll I Seeing the ropractic adjustments. Homola I Pllny the Elder: The Antinouou:s Prophecies, Pickover I Common myths of world through rose-colored glasses. Bowd and Credulist. skeptic or both?. Parejki > / Unfazed: Mark childre behavior, Fiorellol Bertrand Russell and crit- O'Sullivan I Special report: PBS 'Secrets of the Dead' Twain debunks the mesmerizer | Englebretsen I kalireceptiveness . Hare / CSICOP 2Sth Anniversary sec­ buries the truth about the Shroud of Turin, Nickell / Amityville Horror, Nickell. tion: From the editor's seat: 25 years of science and Mythical Mexico, Nickell. skepticism, Kendrick Frazier /Science vs. pseudoscience. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2002 (vol. 26, no. 6): Politicizing nonscience. and nonsense. James A/cock / CSICOP time­ MAY/JUNE 2004 (vol. 28. no. 3): Darkness, tunnels and the Virgin Mary. Eve / Hypothesis testing and the nature line / Primal scream: A persistent New Age therapy, light. Woerlee I Nurturing suspicion. Mo/e / The Cold of skeptical investigations. Pigliucci I Intelligent design: Gardner. War's classified Skyhook program. Gildenberg I The Dembski's presentation without arguments. Perakh I strange odyssey of Brenda Dunne. Stokes / Bridging the Hugo Gemsback. skeptical crusader. Miller I Alternative MARCH/APRIL 2001 (vol. 25, no. 2): Darwin in mind, Edis / chasm between two cultures, McLaren I medicine and pseudoscience. Mornstein I Are skeptics A bit confused, Roche / What can the paranormal teach us I am Freud's brain, Garry and tortus / Visions' behind cynical?. Mole I Psychic pets and pet psychics. Nickell. about consciousness?. Blackrnore I Spontaneous human The Pass/on. Nickell I Belgium skeptics commit mass sui­ confabulation. Nienhuys I Italy's version of Harry Houdini, cide, Bonneux I Psychic sleuth without a clue. Nickell SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2002 (vol. 26. no. 5): Special fVrsbet / A psychological case of 'demon' and 'alien' visita­ Report: Circular Reasoning: The 'mystery' of crop circles tion, Reisner I Distant healing and Elizabeth Targ, Gardner. MARCH/APRIL 2004 (vol 28, no. 2): Special Issue: and their 'orbs' of light Nickell. Fourth World Skeptics Science and Religion 2004: Turmoil and Tensions. Why is Conference Report / A skeptical look at September JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2001 (vol. 25, no. 1): Special religion natural? Boyer I Skeptical inquiry and religion. 11th. Chapman and Harris I Sheldrake's Crystals, van Section: Issues in Alternative Medicine: Medicine wars, Kurtz / Exorcising all the ghosts, Edis I The roles of reli­ Genderen, Koene and Nienhuys I Teaching skepticism Seidman I Herbal medicines and dietary supplements. gion, spirituality, and genetics in paranormal beliefs. via the CRITIC acronym, Bartz I Skepticism under the Allen I Psychoactive herbal medications. Spinella I Kennedy I Development of beliefs in paranormal and big sky, Schwinden, Cngbrecht Mercer and Patterson / Chiropractic Homola I Damaged goods? Science and supernatural phenomena. Whittle I Religious beliefs and Why was The X-Files so appealing?. Goode / Winchester child sexual abuse. Hagen / Special Report- Science indi­ their consequences. Layng / Secularization: Europe yes. mystery house, Nickell. cators 2000 / Facilitated communication, United States no. Zuckerman I Not too 'bright.' Mooney I Gardner. Point of honor On science and religion, Haack / Benjamin JULY/AUGUST 2002 (vol. 26. no. 4): Special Franklin's Enlightenment deism, /saacson / In praise of Report: Alternative medicine and the White NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2000 (vol. 24. no. Ray Hyman. A/cock / Hoaxes, myths, and manias (report House commission, Gorski. London I Special 6): The face behind the Face on Mars. on the Albuquerque conference), Frazier r The stigmata Section: Science and pseudoscience in Posner I The new paranatural paradigm. of Ulian Bemas. Nickell. Russia, Kurtz, ffremov, Knjglyakov I Who Kurtz / Francis Bacon and the true ends of abused Jane Doe? Part 2. tortus and Guyer skepticism. Friedbergl Worlds in collision: JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2004 (vol. 28.. no. 1): Anti-vaccina- /The high cost of skepticism, Tavrrs/Graham Where reality meets the paranormal. tkxi fever. Hoyt I Skepticism of caricatures, Gaynor I Hancock's shifting cataclysm. Brass / The Radford I Why bad beliefs don't die. tester / Supernatural power and cultural Fallacies and frustrations, Mole I Judging authority, Lipps Mad Gasser of Mattoon. Ladendorf and evolution. Layng I The brutality of Dr. I A geologist's adventures with Bimini beachrodc and Bartholomew I Moscow mysteries. Nickell. Bettelheim. Gardner. Atlantis true believers. Shinn I The real method of scien­ MAY/JUNE 2002 (vol. 26. no. 3): Who tific discovery. Guttman I Oxygen is good—even when it's abused Jane Doe? Part 1. Loftus and Guyer SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2000 (vol. 24. no. not there. Hall I Contemporary challenges to William / Is the Mars Effect a social effect?. Dean I 5): Voodoo science and the belief gene. James's white crow. Spitz I UFOs over Buffalo!. Nickell. Gray Barker's book of bunk. Sherwood I Park I Rogerian Nursing Theory. Raskin I NOVEMBER/DECEMBER 2003 (vol. 27, no. 6): Ann Druyan The king of quacks: Albert Abrams, M.D, Sun sign columns. Dean and Mather /The talks about science, religion, wonder, awe, and Carl Haines I Benny Hinn: Healer or hypnotist?. Nickell. psychic staring effect. Marks and Colwell I Sagan. Druyan I Less about appearances: Art and science. Management of positive and negative responses in a Nowlin / King of the paranormal. Mooney I Sylvia MARCH/APRIL 2002 (vol. 26. no. 2): Special Reports: spiritualist medium consultation. Greasley I The laws of Bioterrorism and alternative medicine. Arwood / Browne. Farha / Neither intelligent nor designed. Martin nature: A skeptic's guide. Pazameta I Special Report: 'Mothman' solved! fVickeW / Bigfoot at fifty. Radford I I Fellowship of the rings: UFO rings vs. fairy rings, Nieves- On ear cones and candles. Kaushall and Kaushall I Little Cripplefoot hobbled. Daegling I Pseudohistory in ancient Red Riding Hood. Gardner. Rivera / The curse of Bodie. Nickell coins. Carrier I fie science and religion compatible?. Kurtz SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2003 (vol. 27. no. 5): The ongoing I The emptiness of holism, Ruscio I Undercover among the JULY/AUGUST 2000 (vol. 24. no. 4): Thought Field Therapy: problem with the National Center for Complementary spirits. Nickell. Can we really tap our problems away?. Gaudiano and and Alternative Medicine. Arwood / What does educa­ Herbert I Absolute skepticism equals dogmatism. Sunge / tion really do?, tosh. Tavani, Njoroge, Wilke. and JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2002 (vol. 26. no. 1): Myths of Did a dose encounter of the third kind occur on a Japanese McAuley I Nostradamus's clever 'clairvoyance'. Yafeh murder and multiple regression. Goertzel I Education, beach in 1803?. Tanaka I Rethinking the dancing mania. and Heath I They see dead people—Or do they?. scientific knowledge, and belief in the paranormal. Bartholomew I Has science education become an enemy of Underdown I Energy, homeopathy, and hypnosis in Goode / A university's struggle with chiropractic scientific rationality?, fde / Krakatene: Explosive pseudo- Santa Fe. Seavey I Faking UFO photos for the twenty- DeRobertis I Snaring the Fowler: Mark Twain debunks science from the Czech Academy of science. Stanina I David phrenology. Lopez I Three skeptics' debate tools exam­ first century, Callen I Haunted plantation. Nickell. Bohm and Krishnamurti, Gardner. ined. Caso / Mickey Mouse discovers the 'real' Atlantis. JULY/AUGUST 2003 (vol. 27. no. 4): Special Report Hardersen I Atlantis behind the myth. Christopher I For a complete listing of our back issues, call 800434-1610, 10th European Skeptics Congress report Mahner I Chasing Champ: Legend of the Lake Champlain monster. or see http://www.csicop.org/si/baclt-issues.html. LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

So whether "teach the controversy" is The "controversy" between evolution and human. (You might be interested in two invoked to portray intelligent Design as sci­ Intelligent Design is not scientific but reli­ efforts along these lines: Toward a More entific or merely to portray evolution as a gious. Therefore, the proper place to teach Natural Science—especially chapters 10-13; theory in crisis, the point is the same: to this controversy is a comparative religion especially 13—and The Hungry Soul: Eating challenge science in the service of a narrow class. In fact, in my twenty years of speaking and the Perfecting of Our Nature.) But I religious agenda. to public-school comparative-religion classes, would not have taken up the electronic pen the evolution/creationism question has never were it not for your mistaken presentation of Glenn Branch failed to come up. It has been an excellent my view on human embryos. National Center for opportunity for me to explain the difference You claim that "He maintains that all Science Education between science and religion, between evi­ human life, including a cloned embryo, has Oakland, California dence and faith. The class can also appropri­ the same moral status and dignity as a person ately teach the many divine-creation myths in from the moment of conception." I do not which people have believed. Public schools maintain this, and I have never said this. In Robert Camp writes that ID proponents "try can teach about religion in the appropriate fact, I have said in print that I am inclined to to soft-pedal their goals, appearing to desire venue. However, they can't teach religious doubt this view, though I also remain agnos­ only to have evidence for and against biolog­ guesses as fact, especially in a science class. tic on the question. I do not know with con­ ical evolution covered in science classes. But fidence how to regard the early human this is already the case. ... To propose that August Berkshire embryo, and I doubt that people who claim one desires only that 'evidence for and President such knowledge—on either side of the against' evolution be taught ... is . . . Minnesota Atheists debate—really have it. I do think that any utterly banal." Camp further states that one Minneapolis, Minnesota honest biologist in the presence of an ID pressure group advocates that schools "(a) embryo—animal as well as human—would teach the evidence for and against biological be in awe of its indwelling powers of organic evolution" and " (c) adopt a definition of sci­ While I agree that the teaching of Intelligent and integrated self-development and ontoge­ ence that allows for consideration of all logi­ nesis and would never succumb to the temp­ cal explanations for phenomena in nature." Design vs. evolution is not the teaching of tation of seeing it as "just a bag of cells." It is Then he writes "Of course, no reasonable two different scientific theories, maybe an an organism at the early stage of develop­ scientist, or layman for that matter, would alternative is to teach competing versions of ment—but that still leaves open the precise argue against either .. . option. Both arc Intelligent Design. The version the religious moral standing that it should command wholly noncontroversial and are matters of Right wants to teach suggests that God is among us, and I have never said that the scientific procedure." the intelligence behind the design. I suggest embryo is a person or its equivalent. that Star Trek: The Next Generation has an Camp views (a) and (c) above as an equally plausible theory. That show sug­ I have said that one need not believe that innocuous smokescreen to package a third gested that a very old civilization "seeded" unpalatable request, (b), to also permit "alter­ an early human embryo is fully one of us to the universe. Both of these Intelligent native theories such as Intelligent Design" to be troubled by the idea and practice of Design theories are equally provable, there­ be taught. Exacdy which schools docs Camp regarding it as mere raw material for our fore both should be taught. have in mind in which "evidence both for and own, albeit humanely inspired, use. That dis­ against ... evolution" is being taught—and Alan H. Weiner quiet concerns less what we do to embryos than what we do to ourselves. As a policy where the "evidence against evolution" is Albuquerque, New Mexico somehow being presented in a way consistent matter, I do oppose all human cloning, with the various court decisions of recent including the creation of cloned embryos for years? Exactly what sources for the supposed research but not for the reason you have "evidence against evolution" are being used by Science and Ethics ascribed to me. the teachers? What sources are they likely to I thought, for the future, you would like Ethicist Leon R. Kass, the chair of President find outside of the Creationist literature? to have this error corrected. Should these teachers also be teaching the Bush's Council on Bioethics. sent this letter "evidence against" heliocentrism, the microbe directly to Paul Kurtz in response to Kurtz's Leon Kass theory of disease, atomic theory, and the other article, "Gin the Sciences Help Us Make Wise Washington, D.C. central theories of science? Is "a definition of Ethical Judgments?" (September/October science that allows for consideration of all log­ 2004). We print it here with his approval, and ical explanations for phenomena" problemati­ Kurtz replies.—EDITOR. Ironically, I share with Paul Kurtz many of cal from the pedagogical point of view, when the same personal values ("Can the Sciences what is meant by "logical" is vague and con­ Someone just sent me the text of your very Help Us to Make Wise Ethical Judgments?" troversial and when it may appear as if there is interesting essay from the SKEPTICAL September/October 2004). I am nonrcli- an infinite number of "logical" explanations? INQUIRER, adapted from your Toronto talk gious but work at being moral and ethical. It How "logical" is quantum/particle physics earlier this year. Though we do not see eye to would be reassuring if we could find a scien­ likely to appear to most students? eye on all matters, I appreciate much of what tific basis promoting good behavior. you had to say. Indeed, I too have been inter­ Unfortunately, Kurtz's attempt fails, because Ronald H. Pine ested in nature and ethics for several decades, he falls (as so many have before him) into Research Associate though I do not hold the modern penchant relying on circular reasoning. Field Museum for reductive explanations as providing a suf­ Kurtz dismisses "objective relativism" Chicago, Illinois ficient account of nature, animal no less than because of its "dire consequences" as when it

SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 63 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

was applied in Nazi Germany. He then They also put ensoulment in quotes, because Defense of Dignity: The Challenge for asserts, "scientific knowledge has a vital... they know there is no such thing. And peo­ Bioethics (Encounter Books, 2002), he implies role to play in shaping our moral values . . . ple who disagree with Kurtz don't believe or a "spiritual dimension" to his opposition. "Life surely more than our current reliance on determine anything: they recoil in horror, and soul" he states, "are incredibly mysterious " theologians, politicians, military pundits, propose ethics of revulsion, and actively wish (p. 296). In any case, I find the opposition to corporate CEOs, and celebrities!" Both to abandon both reason and freedom. Really, embryonic stem-cell research regrettable, since statements are presumptuous. The first how childish. Kurtz's entire piece can be it overlooks the possible benefits that may ensue. assumes that the slaughter of millions of paraphrased in a sentence: We shouldn'i John Clinger is mistaken in saying that I innocent people is a bad thing. While 1 per­ underestimate the fact-based component of oppose "objective relativism." / do not—only sonally agree that this is a bad thing, that's moral decisions, which nonetheless have a subjective relativism. I reiterate that science can my adopted stance. It is not proof that our value-based component beyond the realm of have a vital role to play in shaping our values, shared desire is intrinsic to nature, which science. Is Kurtz so removed from a world though these are relative to our interests. Is the does, after all, waste millions of sperm in where intelligent, reflective people support order to gain a single pregnancy. So, Kurtz opposition to the slaughter of millions of inno­ has already selected at least two outcomes the death penalty or oppose euthanasia that cent people simply a question of subjective taste, he desires—a value system that condemns he thinks "getting the facts straight" is a as he seems to imply! Surely the slaughter of the slaughter of innocent people and a sys­ shocking concept? innocent people is amenable to rational criti­ tem that does not rely on people with Most Christians, conservatives, and cisms. Similarly, one can provide reasoned whom he often disagrees. (And darned if I Republicans would not be startled or "recoil arguments against policies based on revenge. I don't hold those same values, myself.) Then in horror" at the self-evident point that one have pointed out in my writings in ethics that he proposes a "naturalistic ethics" which must get the fact-based components straight there are relevant data to consider in moral would be open to rational inquiry, where when making moral decisions. They would dilemmas, such as the common moral decencies, we would select those ethical and moral val­ reasonably recoil in horror, though, at shared needs and values, and an appreciation ues that work, discarding those that don't. Kurtz's unhidden arrogance, childish use of for human rights and responsibilities. Thus, I He claims we have a body of "prescriptive scare quotes, and weak attempt at straw-man submit that there are normative principles that ethical judgments" to go by. But who persuasion tactics. are widely recognized that we can draw upon. exactly has agreed upon these values? To use Apparently Tom Fite believes that a "value- one of his examples, is it okay to execute an Tim Fite based component" is entirely "beyond the realm evil person if it deters other evildoers but Richmond, Virginia of science." "The gentleman doth protest too not if it doesn't? Why? Doesn't this presup­ pose that deterrence is good but retribution much, methinks!" If he reads my article care­ fully, he will recognize that I share with him is not? Who says so? In fact, revenge has Paul Kurtz states in his article on ethical the need for some skepticism about moral survived thousands of years of human his­ judgements, "active euthanasia ... (as prac­ inquiry based on science. But this is not total tory. Objectively, as a persistent value, per­ ticed in Oregon and the Netherlands)." skepticism, which borders on nihilism. haps we should assume revenge is "good." What we allow here in Oregon is in no way Finally, he (surprise) discovers that the sys­ euthanasia. It is hardly even assisted suicide. The field of medical ethics perhaps best illus­ tem he has chosen supports the values he After independent doctors certify that a ter­ trates the development of normative principles in has adopted for himself. So, who selected minal patient will die within six months, the treating terminal patients and allowing them this "valuational base," packed with "de patient may request (if competent) a pre­ (in consultation with their doctors) to make facto values and principles"? Why, it was scription which his physician writes but does reflective choices. (In answer to P.M. de people with whom he agrees! Who would not provide or administer. The patient must Laubenfels, I realize that the form of euthanasia have guessed it?! independently obtain and take it. practiced in Oregon in this regard goes beyond that allowed in the Netherlands.) Can a ratio­ What we allow is nothing like what can nal case be made for some form of euthanasia for happen in the Netherlands. Years ago, in a college ethics class, I was adults, including assisted suicide? "The right of chastised by a philosophy professor because P.M. deLaubenfels privacy," "informed consent, "and the "quality of of my answer to the question: "What do Corvallis, Oregon life" of the patient are relevant principles, but many of these different ethical systems have these should not be viewed as either absolute in common?" My answer: "They were all Paul Kurtz responds: commandments nor subjective tastes, but are designed by people to be guided by princi­ amenable to reasoned inquiry. ples chosen by people very much like them­ selves." So frankly, my personal favorite is I appreciate the clarification that Leon Kass has Science, I've said, has a vital (/limited, role Mammy Yokum, who stated it better, in far made of his position. Many opponents of to play in shaping our moral values. To quote fewer words: "Goodness is better than bad­ cloning, especially stem-cell research, do object from my article, "We ought to consider our ness, 'cause it's nicer." to it on precisely the grounds that I have sug­ moral principles and values, like other beliefs, gested. It is good to hear that Dr. Kass does not open to examination in the light of evidence John dinger accept the doctrine of 'ensoulment," an extra- and reason and, hence, amenable to modifi­ Richmond, Virginia scientific concept based on theological faith by cation. " / have suggested some additional crite­ those who consider the embryo a person. As ria we use in evaluating ethical judgments: are head of the Presidential Council on Bioethics. our values reliable?, how do they compare with From Paul Kurtz's article. I learned that peo­ he has played a powerful role and he admits others we hold?, are they consistent?, and, have ple who disagree with Kurtz always put die that he does "oppose all human cloning, they been tested in practice? In any case, I am words immoral and debauchery in quotes, including the creation of cloned embryos for suggesting that the methods of inquiry we use in apparendy to indicate thai they are in error. research." In his book Life, Liberty and the other areas of human knowledge should be

64 lanuary/February 2005 SKEPTICAL INQUIRER LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

applied, however modestly, to the area of ethics. was of a man of such remarkable intellectual postulates, but as much as possible, one uses We especially need some degree of skepticism as integrity that a well-considered change of other, previously established, results. a necessary antidote to all forms of moral dog­ mind would be simply a matter of course. matism—including our own. John G. Fletcher Frederick Cichocki Livermore, California Boca Raton, Florida Popper and Evolution It Would Have Been Clearer Thanks to Massimo Pigliucci for the good article ("Did Popper Refute Evolution?" In his review of die movie What the US'! Do The letters column is a forum September/October 2004), Although Pigli­ We Know? (September/October 2004), Eric for views on matters raised in ucci tells us nothing substantially new, clear Scerri correctly notes diat the moviemakers previous issues. Letters should expositions like this are always most welcome. err in supposing that, because macroscopic be no more than 225 words. One can show that the line of argument biological systems ultimately consist of quan­ Due to the volume of letters leading to the neo-Darwinian theory (prop­ tized elementary particles, the behaviors of erly framed) is formally valid and, moreover, die former must simply and direcdy recapit­ not all can be published. sound. In addition, if the premise of chal­ ulate diose of die latter. However, he incor­ Address letters to Letters to lenge to reproductive success (Darwin's rectly identifies dieir error as an example of the Editor, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. "struggle for life") is disjoined from the reductionism, rather than as one of inaccu­ Send by mail to 944 Deer Dr. premise of natural selection, as logically it rate analogy and foolish oversimplification. NE, Albuquerque, NM 87122; should be, all possible circularity disappears. His statements that "reductionism works by fax to 505-828-2080; or by Finally, since the neo-Darwinian theory is in principle but not in practice" and is an e-mail (send as e-mail text, not fundamentally a theory of adaptation, it is "old-fashioned paradigm that. . . everything obviously testable (as Pigliucci points out) in is indeed nothing but physics," aldiough as an attachment) to letters© terms of the predicted spread of adaptations perhaps technically true, are pejorative in csicop.org (include name and (i.e., specific features of individuals within a connotation. He should have explained address). species) via (inclusive) differential reproduc­ more clearly that (as best we know now) tive success (natural selection) under the chemistry and biology can be reduced to "struggle for life." physics, but diat to do so all the time would I once had the good fortune to discuss be needlessly, often impossibly, tedious. Similarly one does not prove all the theorems certain matters of evolutionary theory with of mathematics using only the axioms and Sir Karl Popper, face to face. My impression

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SKEPTICAL INQUIRER January/February 2005 65 THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNAnONAl (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Network of Affiliated Organizations International

AUSTRALIA. Canberra Skeptics. Canberra Australia. Collins. P.O. Box 1010. Shatin Central Post Office. KAZAKHSTAN. Kazakhstan Commission for the Peter Barrett President. PO Box 555. Civic Square Shatin NT China. Investigation of the Anomalous Phenomena ACT 2608 Australia. Australian Skeptics Inc., COSTA RICA. Iniclativa para la Promocion del (KCIAP) Kazakhstan. Dr. Sergey Efimov. Scientific Australia. Barry Williams. Executive Officer. Tel. 61- Pensamlento Critlco (IPPEC) San Jose. Victor Quiros Secretary. E-mail: efimOafi.south-capital.kz. Astro- 2-9417-2071; e-mail: skepticsOkasm.com.au. PO V. Tel.: 506 275 43 52; e-mail: victorcrOracsa.co.cr. physical Institute Kamenskoye Plato Alma-Ata. Box 268. Roseville NSW 2069 Australia, www.skep- AP. 1513-1002 Paseo de los Estudiantes San Jose. 480020 Republic of Kazakhstan. Committee for the tics.com.au. Australian Skeptics—Hunter Region Costa Rica. http:ZAvebs.demasiado.com/vicr. 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Tel.: 36-1-392-2728; e-mail: acesso.pt Apartado 334 2676-901 Odivelas. W. Betz. Tel.: 32-2-477-43-11; e-mail: skeppOskepp gbenczeOrmki.kfki.hu. c/o Termeszef l/Waga, PO Box Portugal, http://cepo.interacesso.pt be Laarbeeklaan. 103 B-1090 Brussels. Belgium. 246 H-1444 Budapest 8 Hungary. RUSSIA. Dr. Valerii A Kuvakin. Tel.: 95-718-2178; www.skepp.be. INDIA Atheist Centre. Dr. Vijayam, Executive Director. e-mail: V.KUVAKINOMTU-NET.RU. Vorob'evy Gory. BRAZIL Opcao Racional, Brazil. Luis Fernando Gutman. Benz Circle, Vijayawada 520 010. Andhra Pradesh. Moscow State University. Phil. Dept Moscow 119899 Tel.: 55-21-548-2476; e-mail: fernandogutman India.Tel.:91 866472330: Fax:91 866473433. E-mail: Russia, http://log.philos.msu.ru/rhs/index/htm. Ohotmail.com. Rua Santa Clara. 431 Bloco 5. Apt. atheistOvsnl.com. Maharashtra Andhashraddha SINGAPORE Singapore Skeptics. Contact: Ronald Ng. E- 803, Cop»cabana-Rio de Janeiro 22041-010 Brazil. 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New Delhi Tel.: 27-21-9131434. e-mail. leonrOiafrica.com. 5N Canada. http://abskeRtics.homestead.com. Alberta 110 091 India. Dravidar Kazhagam, southern India. Agapanthus Avenue. Welgedacht Bellville 7530 Skeptics. British Columbia Skeptics. BC and Alberta. K. Veeramani. Secretary General. Tel.: 9144-5386555; South Africa. Lee Moller. Tel. 604-929-6299: e-mail: lee e-mail: periyarOvsnl.com. Periyar Thidal. 50. E.F.K. SPAIN. El Investigador Esotptfco. Spain. Felix Ares de mollerOshaw.ca. 1188 Beaufort Road. N. Vancouver. Sampath Road Vepery. Cnennai Tamil Nadu 600 007 Bias Gamez/Ares/Martinez. P.O. Box 904. Donostia- BC V76 1R7 Canada. Ontario Skeptics. Ontario. India. www.Periyar.org. Indian CSICOP. India, B. San Sebastian 20080 Spain ARP-Sociedad para el Canada. Eric McMillan, Chair. Tel.: 416-425-2451, Premanand. Convenor. Tel.: 091-0422-872423; e- Avance del Pensamiento Critico ARP-SAPC Spain. e-mail: ericOwe-compute.com. P.O. Box 554 Station mail: dayaminiOmd4.vsnl.netin. 11/7 Chettipalayam Felix Ares de Bias. Tel.: 34-933-010220: e-mail: "P- Toronto. ON MSS 2T1 Canada, www.astro. Road Podanur Tamilnadu 641 023 India arpOarp-sapc.org Apartado de Correos. 310 E- yorfcu.ca/-mmdr/oskeptics.html. Toronto Skeptical ITALY. Comitato Italiano per II Controllo delle 08860 Castelldefels. Spain www.arp-sapc.org. Inquirers (TSI) Toronto. Henry Gordon. President Tel.: Affermazioni sul Paranormale (CICAP) Italy. SWEDEN. Swedish Skeptics. Sweden. Dan Larhammar. 905-771-1615; e-mail: henry_gordonOhotmail.com. Massimo Polidoro. Executive Director. Tel.: 39-049- professor chairperson Tel.: 46-18-4714173; e-mail: 343 dark Ave, W.. Suite 1009. Thornhill. ON L4J 7K5 686870; e-mail: polidoroOcicap.org. P.O. Box 1117 vetfolkOphysto.se. Medical Pharmacology 8MC. Canada. Ottawa Skeptics. Ottawa. Ontario. Greg 35100 Padova. Italy, www.cicap.org. Box 593. Uppsala 751 24 Sweden, www.physto. Singer. E-mail: skepticOottawa.com. PO Box 1237, IRELAND. The Irish Skeptics Society c/o Paul se/-vetfolk/index.html. Station B. Ottawa. Ontario KTP SR3 Canada. O'Donoghue. 11 Woodleigh Elm. Highfield Rd, TAIWAN. Taiwan Skeptics. Taiwan. Michael Turton. Director. www.admissions-carleton.ca/-addalby/cats/skeptk.ht Rathgar. Dublin 6. Ireland; www.irishskeptics.net AR Dept. Chaoyang University. 168 G-IFeng E Rd, ml. Sceptiques du Quebec. Quebec Alan Bonnier E-mail:contact©irishsk eptics.net. Wufeng, Taichung 413. Tel.: 514-990-8099. CP. 202. Succ Beaubien Montreal. JAPAN. Japan Anti-Pseudoscience Activities Network UNTIED KINGDOM. The Skeptic Magazine. United Kingdom. Quebec H2G 3C9 Canada, www.sceptiques.qcca. (JAPAN) Japan. Ryutarou Minakami, chairperson E- Mike Hutchinson E-mail: subsOskeptjcorg.uk. P.O. Box Skeptics Quinte. Bill Broderick. 2262 Shannon Rd. mail: skepticOe-mail.ne.jp. c/o Ohta Publishing 475 Manchester M60 2TH United Kingdom. R.R. 1, Shannonville, ON KOK 3A0; e-mail: broderic Company. Epcot 8W. IF, 22, Arakkho. Shinjuku-fcu VENEZUELA Asodadon Racional Esceptica de Venezuela Okos.net Tokyo 160-8571 Japan Japan Skeptics. Japan. Dr. jun (AREV). Sami Rozenbaum. president Address: CHINA China Association for Science and Technology. Jugaku. E-mail: jugakujnOccnaojcjp. Japan Skeptics. Rozenbaum. Apdo. 50314. Caracas 1050-A Vene­ China- Shen Zhenyu Research Center. P.O. Box 8113, Business Center for Academic Societies. Japan 5-16-9 zuela. Web site: www.geocties.com/escepticos Beijing China. Hong Kong Skeptics. Hong Kong. Brad Honkomagome. Bunkyo-ku Tokyo 113-8622 Japan Venezuela. E-mail: esceptkosOcantv.net. President. Tel: 770-493-6857; e-mail: arlongehcrc.org e-mail bkarrecenterforinquiry.net PO Box 703 United States 2277 Winding Woods Dr.. Tucker, GA 30084 US. Amherst NY 14226 Web site: www.csicop.org. IOWA. Central Iowa Skeptics (CIS) Central Iowa. Rob NORTH CAROLINA. Carolina Skeptics North Carolina ALABAMA. Alabama Skeptics, Alabama Emory Beeston Tel.: 515-285-0622; e-mail: ciskepticsehot- Eric Carlson, President Tel.: 336-758-4994; e-mail: Kimbcough. Tel.: 205-759-2624 3550 Watermelon mail.com. 5602 SW 2nd St Des Moines, IA 50315 ecarlsonewfu.edu. Physics Department. Wake Road. Apt. 28A. Northport AL 35476 US Skeptks- US www.skepticweb.com. Forest University, Winston-Salem. NC 27109 US Freethought Forum of Alabama. Skeptics Freethought ILLINOIS Rational Examination Association of Lincoln www.carolinaskeptics.org. Forum Richard Rich. 1801 Beech St SE, Decatur, AL Land (REALL) Illinois. Bob Ladendorf, Chairman. OHIO. Central Ohioans for Rational Inquiry (CORI) 35601-3511 US E-mail- rrbama66ehotmail.com. Tel.: 217-546-3475; e-mail chairmanereall.org PO Central Ohio. Charlie Hazlett President. Tel.: 614- Box 20302. Springfield. IL 62708 US. www.reall.org. ARIZONA. Tucson Skeptics Inc. Tucson, AZ. James 878-2742; e-mail: charlieehazlett.net PO Box McGaha. E-mail: JMCGAHAePimaCC.Pima EDU. 5100 KENTUCKY. Kentucky Assn. of Science Educators and 282069. Columbus OH 43228 US South Shore N. Sabino Foothills Dr., Tucson, A2 85715 US Phoenix Skeptics (KASES) Kentucky. Prof. Robert Baker, 3495 Skeptics (SSS) Cleveland and counties. Jim Kuiz Skeptics, Phoenix. AZ. Michael Stackpole, P.O. Box Castleton Way. North Lexington. KY 40502 US. Tel: 440 942-5543; e-mail, jimkuueearthlink.net 60333. Phoenix. AZ 85082 US. Contact Fred Bach at e-mail: fredwbacheyahoocom. PO Box 5083. Cleveland, OH 44101 US www.south LOUISIANA. Baton Rouge Proponents of Rational Inquiry shoreskeptics.org/. CALIFORNIA. Sacramento Organization for Rational and Scientific Methods (BR-PRISM) Louisiana. Marge Thinking (SORT) Sacramento. CA. Ray Spaogen-burg. co- Association for Rational Thought (ART) Cincinnati. Schroth. Tel.: 225-766-4747 425 Carriage Way, Baton Roy Auerbach. president. Tel: 513-731-2774, email: founder. Tel 916-978-0321; e-mail: kitrayequilcnetcom Rouge. LA 70808 US PO Box 2215. CsrmKhael. CA 95609-2215 US. raaecmci.rr.com. PO Box 12896, Cincinnati. OH www.quiknet.com/-kitray/tndex1.html. Bay Area MICHIGAN. Great Lakes Skeptics (GLS) SE Michigan 45212 US www.cincinnatiskeptio.org. Skeptics (BAS) San Francisco—Bay Area Tully McCarroll. Lorna J. Simmons. Contact person. Tel.: 734-525- OREGON. Oregonians for Rationality (04R) Oregon. Dave Chair. Tel.: 415 927-1548. e-mail: tullyannOpacbell net 5731; e-mail: Skeptic3ieaolcom. 31710 Cowan Chapman. President Tel.: 503 292-2146; e-mail: PO Box 2443 Caslro Valley, CA 94546-0443 US. Road, Apt 103, Westland, Ml 4818S-2366 US. Tri- dchapmaneiccom.com. 7555 Spring Valley Rd NW, wwwBASkeptics.org. Independent Investigations Crties Skeptics, Michigan. Gary Barker. Tel.: 517-799- Salem, OR 97304 US wwwo4r.org Group, Center for Inquiry-West 4773 Hollywood Blvd. 4502; e-mail barkergesvol org 35% Butternut St., Saginaw, Ml 48604 US. PENNSYLVANIA. Paranormal Investigating Committee Los Angeles, CA 90027 Tel.; 323-666-9797 ext 156; Web of Pittsburgh (PICP) Pittsburgh PA. Richard Busch, sitewww.iigwestcocn Sacramento Skeptics Society. MINNESOTA St. Kloud Extraordir ary Claim Psychic Chairman. Tel.: 412-366-1000; e-mail mindfuietel Sacramento. Terry Sandbek, President 4300 Auburn Teaching Investigating Commu nfty (SKEPTIC) St erama.com 8209 Thompson Run Rd., Pittsburgh, Blvd Suite 206, Sacramento CA 95841 Tel 916 489- Cloud. Minnesota. Jerry Merle Tel.: 320 255 PA 15237 US Philadelphia Association for Critical 1774 Email: terryOsandbek.com San Diego Asso­ 2138; e-mail: gmertensestc udstate.edu. Jerry Thinking (PhACT). much of Pennsylvania Eric ciation for Rational Inquiry (SDARI) President Mertens, Psychology Departmennt . 720 4th Ave S. Krieg. President. Tel.: 215-885-2089; e-mail: Richard Urich Tel.: 858-292-5635 Program general St Cloud State University. St. Clo ud. MN 56301 US ericephact.org By mail GO Ray Haupt 639 W Ellet information 619-421-5844 Web site:www sdari.org. MISSOURI. Gateway Skeptic Missouri, Steve 8est St. Philadelphia PA 19119 Snail mail address: PO Box 623, La Jolla, CA 92038 6943 Amherst Ave, Univi Sity City. MO 63130 US 0623. TENNESSEE. Rationalists of East Tennessee. East Kansas City Committee for Skeptical Inquiry. Tennessee Carl Ledenbecker Tel 865-982-8687: e Missouri Verle Muhrer. United Labor Bldg, 6301 mail: Aletalieaol.com 2123 Stonybrook Rd., COLORADO. Rocky Mountain Skeptics (RMS; aka Rockhill Road. Suite 412 Kansas City. MO 64131 US Louisville, TN 37777 US Colorado Skeptics) Bela Scheiber, President Tel 303 NEBRASKA. REASON (Rationalists. Empiracists and 444-7537; e-mail: rms0peakpeak.com PO Box 4482, Skeptics of Nebraska). Chris Peters. PO Box 24358, TEXAS. North Texas Skeptics NTS Dallas/Ft Worth area. Boulder. CO 80306 US. Web site: http./'bcn.boulder Omaha. NE 68134; e-mail: reasonOiehotmail com, John Blanton, Secretary. Tel.: 972-306-3187; e-mail: co.us/community/rms. skepticentskeptics.org PO Box 111794, Carrollton, Web page: www.reason.ws. TX 75011-1794 US. www.ntskeptics.org. CONNECTICUT. New England Skeptical Society (NESS) NEVADA. Skeptics of Las Vegas. (SOLV) PO Box 531323, New England. Steven Novella MD, President Tel.: Henderson. NV 89053-1323 E-mail: rbanderson VIRGINIA. Science & Reason, Hampton Rds.. Virginia 203-281-6277; e-mail: boardBtheness.com. 64 eskepticslv.org. Web site: www.skepticslv.orgy Lawrence Weinstein. Old Dominion Univ.-Pnysics Dept. Norfolk. VA 23529 US. Cobblestone Dr., Hamden. CT 06518 US. NEW MEXICO. New Mexicans for Science and Reason www.theness.com. (NMSR) New Mexico. David E Thomas, President WASHINGTON. Society for Sensible Explanations, Western D.C /MARYLAND. National Capital Area Skeptics NCAS. Tel : 505-869-9250; e-mail: nmsrdaveeswcp.com PO Washington Tad Cook, Secretary. E-mail: Maryland, D.C, Virginia. D W. "Chip" Denman Box 1017. Perarta. NM 87042 US. www.nmsr.org. K7RAearrl.net. PO Box 45792. Seattle, WA 98145 Tel.: 301-587-3827. e-mail: ncasencas.org. PO Box NEW YORK. New York Area Skeptics (NYASk) metropolitan 0792 US. httpy/seattleskeptks.org. 8428, Silver Spring, MD 20907-8428 US. NY area Jeff Corey. President. 18 Woodland Street PUERTO RICO. Sociedad De Escepticos de Puerto Rico Luis http://www.ncas.org. Huntington, NY 11743, Tel: (631) 427-7262 e-mail. R. Ramos. President. 2505 Parque Terra Linda. Trujillo FLORIDA. Tampa Bay Skeptics (TBS) Tampa Bay, Florida jcoreyeiiu.edu. Web site: www.nyask.com Inquiring Alto. Puerto Rico 00976. Tel. 787-396-2395; email Gary Posner, Executive Director. Tel.: 727-209-2902; e Skeptics of Upper New York (ISUNY) Upper New York LramoseesceptKospr.com; Web site www.escepti- mail: tbsecfiflorida.org; PO Box 8099, St Petersburg, Michael Sofka. 8 Providence St. Albany, NY 12203 US. cor.com. FL 33738 US. http://members.aol.com/tbskep. The Central New York Skeptics (CNY Skeptics) Syracuse Lisa The organizations listed above have aims similar to James Randi Educational Foundation. James Randi, Goodlin, President Tel: 315 446-3068; e-mail: those of CSICOP but are independent and Director. Tel: (954)467-1112; e-mail jreferandi.org infoecnyskeptics.org. Web site: cnyskeptics org 201 autonomous. Representatives of these organiza­ 201 SE 12th St. (E. Davie Blvd.), Fort Lauderdale, Fl Milnor Ave.. Syracuse. NY 13224 US Committee for the tions cannot speak on behalf of the CSICOP. Please 33316-1815 Website: www.randi.org Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal. send updates to Barry Karr. P.O. Box 703 Amherst Barry Karr. Executive Director. Tel (716) 636-1425 X217; GEORGIA. Georgia Skeptics (GS) Georgia. Rebecca Long. NY 14226-0703. SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL CONSULTANTS

Gary Bauslaugh. educational consultant Center for Laurie Godfrey, anthropologist University of Massachusetts Massimo Pigliucci. professor in Ecology & Evolution al Curriculum. Transfer and Technology, Victoria. B.C. Canada Gerald Goldin. mathematician, Rutgers University, New Jersey SUNY-Stony Brook, NY Richard E. Berendzen. astronomer. Washington, D.C Donald Goldsmith, astronomer; president Interstellar Media James Pomerarrtz, Provost and professor of cognitive and Martin Bridgstock. Senior Lecturer. School of Science. Alan Hale, astronomer, Southwest Institute for Space linguistic sciences. Brown Univ. Griffith University, Brisbane. Australia Research. Alamogordo. New Mexico Gary P Posner. M.D.. Tampa, Fla. Richard Busch, magician/mentalist Pittsburgh. Penn Clyde F. Herreid, professor of biology. SUNY, Buffalo Oaisie Radner. professor of philosophy. SUNY. Buffalo Shawn Carlson, Society for Amateur Scientists, Fast Terence M. Hines. professor of psychology, Pace University, Robert H. Romer. professor of physics. Amherst College Greenwich, Rl Pleasantville. N Y Karl Sabbagh. journalist Richmond, Surrey, England Roger B. Culver, professor of astronomy, Colorado State Univ Michael Hutchinson, author; Sicffroi fcoxet representatiw. Europe Robert J. Samp, assistant professor of education and Felix Ares de Bias, professor of computer science. Philip A lanna. assoc professor of astronomy. Univ of Virginia University of Basque. San Sebastian. Spain William Jarvis. professor of health promotion and public medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison Michael R. Dennett writer, investigator, Federal Way, health, Loma Linda University. School of Public Health Steven D. Schafersman. asst professor of geology, Miami Washington I. W. Kelly, professor of psychology. University of Univ, Ohio Sid Deutsch. consultant, Sarasota, Fla. Saskatchewan Bela Scheiber,* systems analyst Boulder, Colo J. Dommanget astronomer. Royale Observatory. Brussels. Richard H. Lange. M D. Mohawk Valley Physician Health Chris Scott statistician, London. England Belgium Plan, Schenectady. N Y Stuart D. Scott Jr.. associate professor of anthropology, Nahum J. Duker, assistant professor of pathology. Temple Gerald A. Larue, professor of biblical history and archaeol­ SUNY, Buffalo University ogy. University of So California Erwin M. Segal, professor of psychology, SUNY, 8uffalo Barbara Eisenstadt psychologist educator, clinician. East Wittam M. London. Touro University. International Carta Selby, anthropologist/archaeologist Greenbush. NY Rebecca Long, nuclear engineer, president of Georgia Steven N. Shore, professor and chair, Dept. of Physics William Evans, professor of communication. Center for Council Against Health Fraud. Atlanta, Ga and Astronomy, Indiana Univ South Bend Creative Media Thomas R. McDonough. lecturer in engineering, Caltech. and Waclaw Szybalski, professor. McArdle Laboratory. Bryan Farha. professor of behavioral studies in education. SETI Coordinator of the Planetary Society University of Wisconsin-Madison Oklahoma Oty Umv James E. McGaha. Maior, USAF. pilot John F. Fischer, forensic analyst. Orlando, Fla Joel A. Moskowitz, director of medical psychiatry, Sarah G. Thomason. professor of linguistics. University Eileen Gambrill. professor of social welfare. University of Calabasas Mental Health Services. Los Angeles of Pittsburgh California at Berkeley Jan Willem Nienhuys. mathematician. Univ. of Eindhoven. Tim Trachet journalist and science writer, honorary Luis Alfonso Gamez. science journalist Bilbao, Spain the Netherlands chairman of SKEPP. Belgium Sylvio Garattini. director. Mario Negri Pharmacology John W. Patterson, professor of materials science and David Willey, physics instructor, university of Pittsburgh Institute. Milan. Italy engineering, Iowa State University • Member, CSICOP Executive Council

POLAND PERU CENTERS FOR INQUIRY Lokal BiuTOwy No. 8, 8 Saprezynska St., 00-215 D Casanova 430. Lima 14. Peru www.centerforinquiry.net Warsaw, Poland FLORIDA EUROPE 5201 West Kennedy Blvd., Ste. 124. Tampa. FL Dr. Martin Mahner 33609. Tel: (813) 849-7571 Arheilger Weg 11. D-64380 Rossdorf. Germany TRANSNATIONAL P.O. Box 703. Amherst. NY 14226 EGYPT Tel.: *49 6154 695023 Tel.: (716) 636-1425 44 Gol Gamal St.. Agouza, Giza, Egypt FRANCE MOSCOW WEST Prof. Henri Broch, Professor Valerii A. Kuvakin 4773 Hollywood Blvd., Los Angeles. Umversite of Nice. Faculte des Sciences. 119899 Russia. Moscow. Vorobevy Gory. CA 90027 Tel.: (323) 666-9797 Pare Valrose. 06108. Nice cedex 2. France Moscow State University, Philosophy Dept. www.unice.fr/zetetics/ METRO NEW YORK NEPAL 30 Rockefeller Plaza. #2829. Humanist Association of Nepal NIGERIA New York. NY 10112 P.O. Box 5284. Kathmandu. Nepal P.O. Box 25269, Mapo, Ibadan. Tel: (212) 265-2877 Tel: 011977 125 7610 Oyo State. Nigeria Center for Inquiry Transnational "... to promote and defend reason, science, and freedom of inquiry in all areas of human endeavor." THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL

Abell 2125: Chandra Catches Early Phase of Cosmic Assembly

Chandra's image of the galaxy cluster Abell 2125 reveals a complex of several massive multimillion-degree-Celsius gas clouds in the process of merging. Ten of the point-like sources are associated with galaxies in the cluster, and the rest are probably distant background galaxies. The small bright fea­ ture in the extreme lower right-hand corner is probably a background galaxy cluster not associated with Abell 2125.

Credit NASA/CXC/UMass/Q.D.Wang et al.

Skeptical Inquirer i THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE AND REASON

The Committee is a nonprofit scientific and educational organization. The SKEPTICAL INQUIRER«JS its official journal.

The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the such inquiries to the scientific community, the media, and the Paranormal encourages the critical investigation of paranormal public. lt»also promotes science and scientific inquiry, critical and fringe-science claims from a responsible, scientific point of thinking, science education, and the use of reason in examining view and disseminates factual information about the results of important issues.

Metro New York Manhattan, New York West Los ATTgeles, California Florida Tampa Bay. Flo. . Europe Rossdorf. Germany Peru Lima, Peru Moscow Moscow^tate University Nepal Kathmandu. Nepal Nigeria Oyo State, Nigeria Egypt Gmmgypi France Universite of Nice, France