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Towards Commercial Fusion: Innovation, Technology Roadmapping for Start-Ups, and Critical Natural Resource Availability

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Towards Commercial Fusion: Innovation, Technology Roadmapping for Start-Ups, and Critical Natural Resource Availability Open Research Online The Open University’s repository of research publications and other research outputs Towards Commercial Fusion: Innovation, Technology Roadmapping for Start-ups, and Critical Natural Resource Availability Thesis How to cite: Pearson, Richard John (2020). Towards Commercial Fusion: Innovation, Technology Roadmapping for Start- ups, and Critical Natural Resource Availability. PhD thesis The Open University. For guidance on citations see FAQs. c 2020 The Author https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Version: Redacted Version of Record Link(s) to article on publisher’s website: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.21954/ou.ro.0001187b Copyright and Moral Rights for the articles on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. For more information on Open Research Online’s data policy on reuse of materials please consult the policies page. oro.open.ac.uk TOWARDS COMMERCIAL FUSION: INNOVATION, TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPPING FOR START-UPS, AND CRITICAL NATURAL RESOURCE AVAILABILITY Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Engineering and Innovation Richard John Pearson BEng MSc The Open University Original date of submission for examination: 5th March 2020 Date of submission for corrections post-examination: 20th July 2020 Date of submission to ORO: 22nd August 2020 ii This thesis is dedicated to two women who have shaped my life so profoundly: To my wife, Emily; who is my everything, and to the memory of my mother, Claire; to whom I owe everything. iii iv Difficult to see, always in motion is the future - Yoda, Star Wars v vi Abstract Nuclear fusion, a potentially world-changing energy source, has been the subject of dedicated research for over half a century. With a focus on scientific research, development has principally been via publicly funded programmes led by government laboratories in which strategy and innovation are largely overlooked. Consequently, and without intention, the commercial aspects of development on such programmes are left until later, and routes that are not well-suited to commercialisation are pursued. The recent emergence of privately funded fusion start-ups with the explicit goal of commercialisation is disrupting the fusion innovation paradigm. The purpose of this thesis is to characterise the fusion start- up innovation approach and to apply Technology Roadmapping to help fusion start-ups overcome challenges in the commercialisation process. Strategic challenges in the availability, supply, and use of critical natural resources are specifically analysed. The research takes an interdisciplinary engineering systems approach, using mixed methods to connect innovation, technology management and strategy to the fusion paradigm. The thesis deploys innovation theory via contextual analysis, with parallels to the space exploration sector, to find that fusion start-ups operate on an agile innovation model. Technology Roadmapping is applied to a fusion start-up case study with Tokamak Energy Ltd, and the process is adapted to the hardware-based agile innovation approach. The impact of roadmapping on planning, innovation management and communication are examined. Via forecasting models and literature-based analysis, key commercial challenges for critical fusion resources – specifically deuterium, tritium, lithium-6, beryllium, lead and helium – are characterised. A new innovation space for commercial tritium breeding blankets is identified. In conclusion, this thesis characterises a paradigm shift in fusion commercialisation. It provides a framework for the innovation approach, an applied roadmapping process, and highlights key resource criteria yielding recommendations to drive commercial fusion missions forward. vii viii Preface This thesis contains approximately 112,000 words, including all text, captions, tables, and references. This complies with requirements of the research degree committee of the Open University, which has removed the capped word limit for this thesis. No part of the thesis has been previously submitted to any university for any degree, diploma, or other qualification. Copyright permission has been granted to use all figures presented in this thesis that were not created by the author. In some instances, figures from other publications have been redrawn by the author for the purposes of this thesis, with reference to the original publication. In one instance, copyright could not be obtained, and redrawing was not possible, and so the figure (Figure 6-6) has been redacted. Except for commonly understood or accepted ideas, or where specific reference is made, the research presented in this thesis is wholly the author’s work. However, as stressed in the acknowledgements, the author has received guidance and support from supervisors and research collaborators and, accordingly, parts of the thesis have informed a series of collaborative publications: - Pearson, R. J. et al., 2017. Romanian tritium for nuclear fusion. Fusion Science and Technology, 71(4), pp.610-615. (Peer-reviewed). - Pearson, R. J., Bluck, M. J., & Murphy, S. T. (2017). A symbiotic approach to compact fission and fusion reactors. ANS Transactions, 117(1), 378-381. (Conference proceeding). - Pearson, R. J., Antoniazzi, A. B., & Nuttall, W. J. (2018). Tritium supply and use: a key issue for the development of nuclear fusion energy. Fusion Engineering and Design, 136, 1140-1148. (Peer-reviewed). - Takeda, S. & Pearson, R. J. (2019). Nuclear Fusion Power Plants. In Power Plants in the Industry. IntechOpen. (Peer-reviewed). - Pearson, R. J. et al., 2020. Technology Roadmapping for mission-led agile hardware development: a case study of a commercial fusion energy start-up. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 158, pp.120064. (Peer-reviewed). These publications relate to the work presented in this thesis but are not identical to it. Where common text appears, it is from the author’s contributions to those papers. Finally, parts of this research were conducted with support and sponsorship from Tokamak Energy Ltd, UK. Specifically, the research presented in Chapter 4 of this thesis, and discussed in Chapter 5, is the result of a case study in which the researcher was based within Tokamak Energy Ltd. Unless specified, the method, results, analysis, and discussion presented in this research do not reflect the views or opinions of Tokamak Energy. The ix other chapters of this thesis represent research that was not sponsored or supported by Tokamak Energy Ltd. x Acknowledgements It is safe to say that my PhD journey has been a rollercoaster. I have experienced the best day of my life; the day I got married, and the worst day of my life; the day I lost my mum. I have learnt so much – not just about my research area(s), but about myself and life. While the journey has brought many lows, it has most brought highs, and I am grateful for what has been a truly unique learning experience. In particular, I have firmly embraced the “philosophy” aspect of this research degree. As a result, I have developed a much broader view of the world, undergoing something of a personal renaissance. I have altered how I approach problems, analyse information and also how I interact with people. I’ve enjoyed watching myself grow and adapt. I hope that these lessons and my enthusiasm for learning are reflected in my writing, and I hope those that read this thesis enjoy learning about what I have discovered. However, while I am proud of myself for completing this thesis, naturally, I owe a debt of gratitude to so many people who have supported me – directly or indirectly, knowingly or unknowingly, and professionally or unprofessionally! It is important to me that I name each of them personally: - I extend a special thanks to my supervisory team. I have appreciated all they have done to support me and for fruitful discussions on the topics in this thesis and more, and it has been a pleasure to work with them. So, profound thanks to my lead supervisor Prof. Bill Nuttall who has continually inspired me and provided me with autonomy in my research which I have greatly valued; to Prof. John Bouchard for his keen interest in my research and for keeping me on track!; to Prof. Bartek Glowacki for providing such enthusiasm for my ideas; to Dr Rob Phaal for supporting my foray into innovation and management research and the resulting fruitful discussions; and to Dr Alan Costley for providing me with mentorship and guidance on a great many things. - I extend particular thanks to Tokamak Energy Ltd for their part in sponsoring this research. The opportunity to document the company’s progress as the company has exponentially expanded was an incredible experience. Thanks to all the team who supported my work, particularly: Alan, David, Enrique, Glen, Graham, Greg, Jonathan, Melanie, Mikhail, Otto, Paul N, Paul T, Peter, Rob, Ross, Steven, Tony and Vladimir. - I want to thank professional colleagues who have supported my research journey. For discussions on fusion innovation, Prof. Dennis Whyte, Bill Bonvillian & Prof. Bruno Coppi (MIT, U.S.); Dr Ashley Finan, Brett Rampal & Joe Chaisson (Clean Air Task Force, U.S.); Andrew Foss (Lucid Strategy, U.S.); Dr Sam Murphy (Lancaster University). For discussions on roadmapping, I thank Dr Imoh Ilevbare & Dr Clive Kerr (University of Cambridge) and Alexis Mather (Nolojy.st). For technical discussions on resources, I thank Richard Clarke; Stephen Strikwerda (Kinectrics, Canada); Prof Satoshi Konishi (Kyoto University Japan); Aniceto Goraieb (KIT, Germany);
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