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Carex Rupestris) in the Western Carpathians—The Future Perspective of an Arctic-Alpine Species Under Climate Change

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Carex Rupestris) in the Western Carpathians—The Future Perspective of an Arctic-Alpine Species Under Climate Change diversity Article The Fate of Endangered Rock Sedge (Carex rupestris) in the Western Carpathians—The Future Perspective of an Arctic-Alpine Species under Climate Change Ivana Svitková 1,*, Marek Svitok 2,3 , Anton Petrík 4, Dana Bernátová 5, Dušan Senko 1 and Jozef Šibík 1 1 Institute of Botany, Plant Science and Biodiversity Center, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Dúbravská cesta 9, 845 23 Bratislava, Slovakia; [email protected] (D.S.); [email protected] (J.Š.) 2 Department of Biology and General Ecology, Faculty of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Technical University in Zvolen, Masaryka 24, 960 01 Zvolen, Slovakia; [email protected] 3 Department of Ecosystem Biology, Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Branišovská 1760, 370 05 Ceskˇ é Budˇejovice,Czech Republic 4 Botanical Garden of Comenius University, Botanická 3, 841 04 Bratislava, Slovakia; [email protected] 5 Botanical Garden of Comenius University, Blatnica 315, 038 15 Blatnica, Slovakia; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +421-(45)-5241111 Received: 31 July 2019; Accepted: 16 September 2019; Published: 19 September 2019 Abstract: Carex rupestris is an endangered and rare arctic-alpine element of the Western Carpathian flora. Given the geographically isolated and spatially restricted peripheral ranges of arctic-alpine species, there is a good chance that many species of conservation concern irreversibly disappear from the regional flora under the ongoing climate change. In this study, we gathered all existing data on the presence of C. rupestris and focused on its current and future distribution in the Western Carpathians. We found that although the distribution of the species is fragmented and scarce, C. rupestris occurs in several mountain ranges, in four distinct plant community types, which differ considerably in altitude, geological bedrock, and other habitat characteristics. In contrast to the relatively broad range of occupied habitats, C. rupestris shows a narrow temperature niche (mean annual temperature range 0.4–4.0 ◦C). Ensembles of small models based on climatic characteristics and local topography show that regardless of the climate change scenario (rcp2.6, rcp8.5), many current occurrence sites, mainly in the peripheral zones of the range, will face the excessive loss of suitable environmental conditions. It is expected that the Tatra Mountains will be the only mountain range retaining potentially suitable habitats and providing possible refugia for this cold-adapted species in the future. Such severe shrinkage of distribution ranges and associated geographic isolation raises serious concerns for the fate of the arctic-alpine species in the Western Carpathians. Keywords: arctic-alpine vegetation; biodiversity; climate change; conservation; ensemble of small models; refugia; Western Carpathians 1. Introduction Arctic-alpine taxa are mainly distributed in higher latitudes. Due to their adaptation to low temperatures, these species show an extrazonal distribution occupying the highest summits of the European Alpine System (EAS) [1,2], such as the Alps, Carpathians, Sudeten, Pyrenees, Apennines, Dinarides, and Rilo–Rhodopean massifs [3–5]. Regarding the extent of their distribution outside the Arctic, there are large differences between taxa. Whereas some arctic-alpine species are common in many mountain ranges of the Northern Hemisphere, others are very rare, and in some cases, only a Diversity 2019, 11, 172; doi:10.3390/d11090172 www.mdpi.com/journal/diversity Diversity 2019, 11, 172 2 of 17 Diversity 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 16 many mountain ranges of the Northern Hemisphere, others are very rare, and in some cases, only a few fragile populations are known outside the Arctic and the directly connected mountain ranges [6,7]. few fragile populations are known outside the Arctic and the directly connected mountain ranges Small and isolated populations of theses rare cold-adapted species are especially vulnerable to ongoing [6,7]. Small and isolated populations of theses rare cold-adapted species are especially vulnerable to climate change [8]. ongoing climate change [8]. Carex rupestris All. (Figure1A; rock sedge, syn.: Carex petraea Wahlenb.) is an arctic-alpine Carex rupestris All. (Figure 1A; rock sedge, syn.: Carex petraea Wahlenb.) is an arctic-alpine species, which forms co-dominant or dominant stands in its distributional optimum. This species has species, which forms co-dominant or dominant stands in its distributional optimum. This species has a circumpolar distribution and shows an insular distribution pattern in the EAS. It has first reached a circumpolar distribution and shows an insular distribution pattern in the EAS. It has first reached Western Europe in the Pleistocene from the northern regions of the Holarctic and subsequently migrated Western Europe in the Pleistocene from the northern regions of the Holarctic and subsequently eastwards along the chains of the Alps and the Carpathians [9]. migrated eastwards along the chains of the Alps and the Carpathians [9]. FigureFigure 1.1. DetailedDetailed habitus of CarexCarex rupestris rupestris inin Velická Velická dolinadolina Valley, Valley, Vysoké Vysoké TatryTatry Mountains Mountains (A (A);); typicaltypical habitat habitat in in Hlinsk Hlinskáá dolina dolina Valley, Valley, Vysok Vysokéé Tatry Tatry Mountains Mountains (B ();B site); site threatened threatened by by trampling trampling on on Mt. SinMt.á,N Siná,ízke Nízke Tatry Tatry Mountains Mountains (C); and (C); overgrowing and overgrowing by competitively by competitively stronger stronger dwarf dwarf pine (pinePinus (Pinus mugo ) onmugo Mt.) on Krakova Mt. Krakova hol’a, N hoízkeľa, Nízke Tatry MountainsTatry Mountains (D). Photo: (D). Photo: J. Šibí k.J. Šibík. C.C. rupestris rupestrisis is an an extremely extremely rare, rare, critically critically endangered, endangered, and and protected protected red-listed red-listed species species in the in whole the Carpathianwhole Carpathian range and range adjacent and mountainadjacent mountain ranges; apart rang fromes; apart the Slovak from the part Slovak of the Westernpart of the Carpathians, Western twoCarpathians, localities aretwo known localities in are Sudeten known (Czech in Sudeten Republic) (Czech [10 Republic),11], a few [10,11], localities a few are localities found in are the found Polish partin the of thePolish Eastern part Beskidsof the Eastern (Poland) Beskids [12] and (Polan in thed) Ukraine[12] and [ 13in]. the Rock Ukraine sedge is[13]. considered Rock sedge to be is a relicconsidered species to [14 be] asa relic well species as an important [14] as well diagnostic as an important species diagnostic of the relic species arctic-alpine of the relic vegetation arctic-alpine [3,15 ]. Itvegetation has a very [3,15]. specific It has distribution a very specific within distributi the Westernon within Carpathians the Western (Figure Carp2), whatathians drew (Figure the attention2), what ofdrew botanists the attention for decades of botanists [16–18 ].for It decades is completely [16–18]. missing It is completely in the Polish missing (northern) in the Polish part of(northern) the Tatra Mountainspart of the andTatra its Mountains distribution and in Slovakiaits distribution is obviously in Slovakia disjunct, is obviously with the habitats disjunct, di withffering the among habitats the highestdiffering mountain among rangethe highest (Vysok mountainé Tatry Mountains) range (Vys andoké the Tatry other, Mountains) smaller mountain and the ranges. other, However,smaller themountain exact environmental ranges. However, differentiation the exact environmental of presence sites differentiation has not been quantifiedof presence yet. sites has not been quantified yet. Diversity 2019, 11, 172 3 of 17 Diversity 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 16 Figure 2. Map of known occurrences of Carex rupestris in the Western CarpathiansCarpathians (Slovakia).(Slovakia). The factfact thatthat global global climate climate change change is alreadyis already having having a significant a significant impact impact on ecosystems on ecosystems is widely is recognizedwidely recognized [8,19–21 [8,19–21].]. It might It might alter natural alter natural disturbance disturbance regimes, regimes, such assuch drought as drought frequency frequency [22], extreme[22], extreme rainfall rainfall events events [23], [23], and an floodsd floods [24 ],[24], as wellas well as as the the outbreaks outbreaks of of fire, fire, insect insect pests, pests, oror windwind stormsstorms in terms of frequency and severity, severity, altering also the corresponding species distribution [25,26]. [25,26]. ArcticArctic andand alpinealpine ecosystemsecosystems areare consideredconsidered toto bebe oneone of the most vulnerable and susceptible systems toto many of the effects effects of climate change—e.g., increa increasesses in temperature, temperature, altered altered precipitation precipitation patterns, and changeschanges ofof seasonalseasonal dynamicsdynamics [[27].27]. There is also an ongoingongoing debatedebate aboutabout speciesspecies rangerange shiftsshifts towardstowards higher altitudes altitudes and and latitudes latitudes [28–30], [28–30], with with the the strongest strongest shifts shifts in species in species composition composition in the in thevegetation vegetation of the of theTatra Tatra Mountains Mountains being being found found in inmylonite mylonite grasslands grasslands of of a asmall small plot plot size size [31]. [31]. AnotherAnother
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