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E N Te Rta in M E N T: S O Ftw a Re Equity Research L O S ANGELES | S A N FRANCISCO | NEW Y O R K | B O S T O N | C H IC A GO | MINNEAPOLIS | MILWAUKEE | SEATTLE Entertainment: Software January 4, 2017 Michael Pachter Nick McKay Alicia Reese (213) 688-4474 (213) 688-4343 (212) 938-9927 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] January 2017 Video Game Industry Monthly • In December, none of our covered companies reported quarterly results. • The Wedbush Video Game Index was down 5% for the month of December driven by a challenging month for Nintendo shares, which declined 12% following a weaker-than-expected debut for Super Mario Run . Nintendo shares began to trade off in the days ahead of launch, and the decline deepened as chart data suggested that the company had made a mistake by capping spending on the game at $9.99. Ubisoft shares were up 3% for the month as speculation around a potential acquisition by holder Vivendi outweighed weaker-than-expected debuts for November video game release Watch Dogs 2 and December movie release Assassin’s Creed . The Russell 2000 and S&P 500 were up 3% and 2%, respectively, driven by the perception that the President-elect will have a pro-business approach that will include de-regulation and tax cuts. • According to NPD, November U.S. console/handheld software sales were $772 million, down 22% year-over-year and below our estimate of $788 million. The decline was driven in large part by digital mix shift, increased discounting of new releases this year, bundling, and fierce competition for wallet share in the consumer electronics space, including from a slew of new video game hardware. A trio of new releases, Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare (PS4, XB1, PC) and Nintendo’s Pokémon Moon (3DS) and Pokémon Sun (3DS), were among the month’s more popular titles. Other strong sellers included a quartet of October releases (Bethesda Softworks’ The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim Special Edition , EA’s Battlefield 1 and Titanfall 2 , and Microsoft’s Gears of War 4 ), a quartet of sports titles (EA’s FIFA 17 and Madden NFL 17 and Take-Two’s NBA 2K17 and WWE 2K17 ), and hardware bundle pack-ins led by Sony’s Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End . • November next-gen hardware unit sales were below our expectations on a combined basis. There were 1,112,000 PS4 units sold including PS4 Pros versus our 1,200,000 unit estimate, 1,007,000 Xbox One units sold versus our 1,100,000 unit estimate, and 53,000 Wii U units sold versus our 62,000 unit estimate. PS4 was the most popular console for the first time in five months driven by discounting and the November 10 release of the PS4 Pro, which sold well above our expectations. • Key December headlines: o 12/3-4 – Sony held the third annual PlayStation Experience at the Anaheim Convention Center. Notable game reveals included Capcom’s Marvel vs. Capcom Infinite and Sony’s Knack 2 , The Last of Us Part II , and Uncharted: The Lost Legacy . o 12/7 – Sony announced PS4 worldwide hardware sell-through of over 50 million units as of December 6. o 12/7 – Zynga launched the mobile free-to-play game Dawn of Titans from developer NaturalMotion. o 12/8 – NPD released the November 2016 U.S. console/handheld sales data, with HW and SW dollars below our expectations. o 12/15 – Nintendo released mobile game Super Mario Run for iOS devices. The game is free-to-start with a one-time payment of $9.99 required for full access. o 12/15 – Activision Blizzard announced that based on revenue from physical unit sales, Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare , which launched on November 4, was the #1 console video game in the U.S. year-to-date and the #1 console title for the month of November. Also, for the 8th consecutive year, the Call of Duty franchise was the #1 console video game franchise in North America based on year-to-date revenue from physical unit sales, as well as retail's #1 grossing console franchise in the U.S. o 12/16 – Riot Games and BAMTech announced a long-term partnership for professional League of Legends eSports content without disclosing financial terms. The partnership is rumored to be a seven-year, $300 million licensing deal, with BAMTech paying for the guaranteed amount through the delivery of ads, and Riot Games entitled to a portion of the profits. • Key events in January: o 1/5-8 – The CES 2017 consumer electronics trade show will be held in Las Vegas. Wedbush Securities will host management access meetings with certain covered and non-covered companies. Contact your sales person for additional information. o 1/12 – The Nintendo Switch Presentation 2017 in Tokyo begins at 8pm PT. Details will include the launch date (expected in March), pricing, and the lineup of games in development. The event will be livestreamed. o 1/12 – NPD to release the December 2016 U.S. console/handheld software and hardware sales data. o 1/13 – GameStop to report 2016 holiday sales results for the 9-week period ending December 31. o 1/31 – Nintendo to report Q3:17 results. o 1/31 – Electronic Arts to report Q3:17 results. Wedbush Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors Entertainment: Software should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see page 9 of this report for analyst certification and important disclosure information . RISKS TO THE ATTAINMENT OF OUR PRICE TARGET AND RATING Risks to the attainment of our price targets and ratings for the companies that we cover in this sector include changes to game release timing, greater-than-expected deterioration of the average selling price of hardware and software, the effects of competition from other forms of entertainment and games designed for smart devices, changing macroeconomic factors, and lower-than-expected consumer demand for video game hardware and software. INVESTMENT UPDATE Now that 2016 is in the books, we expect investors to focus on this year’s results and guidance. Activision had a weak fourth quarter, as its flagship Call of Duty game received lackluster reviews while direct competitors Battlefield 1 and Titanfall 2 scored 10 points higher in their average review scores. November physical sell-through of Call of Duty was down close to 50% year-over-year, and while some portion of the decline is attributable to a shift to full game downloads, it is clear that the game is performing worse than the prior year’s version. We think that Activision will limp to its guidance for the quarter, which is $0.09 below our current estimate; our estimates will be under review until we see December sell-through next week, as it is possible that sales rebounded that month. Regardless, it is becoming exceedingly unlikely that always conservative Activision management will guide to revenue and earnings growth in 2017. Instead, we think that the company will guide to flattish revenues (incremental contribution from King being included for a full year in 2017 compared to 10 months in 2016 offset by a lighter overall slate this year) and lower year-over-year EPS. The lower EPS guidance will likely be based upon high margin contribution from Overwatch in 2016 replaced by lower margin contribution from this year’s big title, Destiny 2 , which is developed by a third party and subject to higher royalty payments. With that said, we expect 2017 EPS guidance of around $1.75 – 1.90, compared to the likely $2.03 – 2.05 figure they can deliver for 2016. It is important to keep in mind that Activision management has historically guided well below actual full year EPS results (an average of 19% below actuals over the last 10 years), and we expect investors to take lowball guidance with a grain of salt. In our view, 2017 looks a lot like 2015, when Activision earned $1.31, with three big differences: first, Activision added King, which conservatively adds $0.48 in core earnings next year, and which could account for as much as $0.72 in full year contribution; second, Activision has Destiny 2 launching (likely in September), which should account for at least $600 million in revenue and $250 million in operating profit contribution (approximately $0.25 in EPS contribution); and third, Activision expects to begin advertising in King games, which we think will add at least $0.15 in EPS contribution and may account for as much as $0.40. In other words, our bottom up build of EPS for 2017 comes to a minimum of $2.19 and a possible $2.68. As such, we don’t expect a material adverse reaction to what is now widely expected conservative EPS guidance. EA has a high class problem created by the phenomenal performance of Battlefield 1 . That game will likely exceed company guidance by 4 – 5 million units, and creates a difficult comparison next year (EA’s fiscal year ends in March). We expect the company to delay the launch of Mass Effect Andromeda (currently scheduled for March) into April, giving it approximately 3 million units of offset to the upside from Battlefield 1 , and believe EA is well positioned to exceed its $3.65 EPS guidance for FY:17 by $0.15 or so.
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