Understand to Prevent The military contribution to the prevention of violent con ict MCDC November 2014 10532_MOD U2P B5 PRINT_cover v0_2.indd All Pages 25/03/2015 10:29 Understand to Prevent The military contribution to the prevention of violent conflict A Multinational Capability Development Campaign project Project Team: GBR, AUT, CAN, FIN, NLD, NOR, USA November 2014 Distribution statement This document was developed and written by the contributing nations and international organizations of the Multinational Capability Development Campaign (MCDC) 2013-14. The 23 partner nations and international governmental organizations that make up MCDC are a coalition of the willing that collaborate to develop and enhance interoperability while maximising benefits of resource and cost sharing. The products developed provide a common foundation for national and organizational capability development in the areas of interoperability, doctrine, organization, training, leadership education, personnel and policy. This document does not necessarily reflect the official views or opinions of any single nation or organization, but is intended as recommendations for national/international organizational consideration. Reproduction of this document is authorized for personal and non-commercial use only, provided that all copies retain the author attribution as specified below. The use of this work for commercial purposes is prohibited; its translation into other languages and adaptation/ modification requires prior written permission. Questions, comments and requests for information can be referred to: [email protected] Preface — A new focus Military thinking on the utility of force is at a In practical terms, while warfighting will always crossroads. Thirteen years of continuous remain the foundation of military capability, we warfare — in Iraq, Afghanistan and the brief need to supplement the current spectrum of intervention in Libya — have delivered only effects practised by most Western nations limited and uncertain political gains. Trials of (shape-persuade-deter-coerce-intervene) with strength have been won, but not the clash of a new human-centred model. With this new wills. The most recent intervention — Iraq, model, the military will offer persistent again — is asking the same questions, with the modulated engagement — a continuous answers no clearer than before. presence through the deployment of scaleable, bespoke tailored joint forces to Member Nations of the Multinational respond intelligently and appropriately to each Capability Development Campaign (MCDC) circumstance and engagement proactively. are also facing the consequences of pulling Specifically, supporting locally-led prevention back from overseas engagement — how to initiatives through an altered spectrum with a retain talented personnel, how to manage different emphasis — ‘understand-engage budget cuts and, above all, how best to early-act-endure-assess’.2 prepare for an uncertain future? This new model will provoke challenge, not Opinions are divided about how the role of the least from areas of the world where the military will evolve in the coming years. Will it military are seen as part of the problem rather continue fighting ‘wars amongst the people’, than possible contributors to the solution. It is or are the biggest risks still posed by powerful also likely that some of those working in nation states? Should the military be development and peacebuilding fields will preparing to mix the two strategies, or will the regard with scepticism, or even hostility, pervasiveness of cyberspace, and its use by to the prospect of military boots marching friends, allies, whole populations — and our into ‘their’ space. adversaries — force us to significantly change the way that we configure and use our armed For the military to be effective in this new forces? Will the gathering effects of climate approach, they must be accepted as a trusted change drive more conflict or stimulate more contributor. Trust will therefore have to be built cooperation, calling on the military to with the many other actors in the field, some contribute in ways that are, as yet, unclear, and of whom will not be our usual partners. certainly outside its traditional roles? Additionally, understanding of the human domain has to broaden and deepen in order Against this uncertain background, for us to engage with other actors effectively. Understand to Prevent (U2P) argues for a new We must also develop a better understanding focus — a shift of military effort from crisis of conflict itself, and embrace the distinction response (waiting for the future to happen) to between conflict, violence and violent conflict ‘upstream’1 engagement to positively manage — related but different concepts that call for conflict, prevent violence and build peace. different approaches, and which render the term ‘conflict prevention’ too blunt to be useful. 1 ‘Upstream’ is used in this document to refer to the period before conflict turns violent. ‘Downstream’ refers to restoring peace after a violent crisis. 2 See Chapter 6 for more detail. 3 Based on these human-centred insights, an We welcome feedback on the ideas put understanding emerges of the wider forward in this publication and hope that it will contribution the military can make; namely, as prompt a wider discussion about how the ‘conflict specialists’. Their legitimate range of military can play a proactive and strategic role activity runs from personal mediation at one in helping to create a less violent world. end of the spectrum, through conflict resolution and transformation, to deterrence and — if necessary — warfighting. 4 Introduction This publication is a think piece, primarily U2P also touches on a number of practical intended to introduce military readers to advances in conflict management that have various ideas about conflict, violence and occurred in recent years and may be prevention that we believe will prove useful in unknown to military readers. The field has starting to focus military thinking on upstream developed rapidly and substantially, so that engagement. It is, therefore, designed to alongside conceptual and academic growth challenge preconceptions and create debate, there has been growth in: enabling military officers and their civilian counterparts to think more broadly about the • think-tanks, commentary and lobbying; subject. It is neither definitive or authoritative, • civil society as a source of innovation and but it does provide the foundation for further social mediation; exploratory work by the MCDC community. • local peacebuilding work around the globe; Our selection includes a range of concepts and models drawn from the rapidly growing • international civil society programmes and world of peace studies that will be familiar to networking; and some readers but unknown to others, and • governmental, and intergovernmental, which we readily acknowledge is far from awareness and action. complete.3 We see it as a first step in an Acknowledging all this, U2P is presented in ongoing and reflective process of learning and two parts. Part 1 is broadly theoretical, while exchange that we hope will become Part 2 starts to look at how those concepts embedded in military study. could be applied by the military. Central to U2P are the ideas of the Norwegian scholar Johan Galtung and the US academic- practitioner John Paul Lederach.4 You should note, however, that peace and conflict studies is a relatively young field and much of it is still contested.5 For example, while Galtung’s pioneering ideas on the nature of conflict and violence have been extremely influential, his more recent work has proved controversial. Similarly, although Lederach’s ideas have been widely accepted he too has his critics. Nevertheless, both men are significant figures in the field and we believe their insights have much to offer. 3 For a good introduction to the field of peace and conflict studies seeContemporary Conflict Resolution (3rd Edition), Ramsbotham, Woodhouse and Miall, 2011. 4 Professor of International Peacebuilding at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana. 5 See, for example, the continually updated Berghof Handbook for Conflict Transformation: www.berghof-foundation.org/publications/handbook/berghof-handbook-for-conflict-transformation 5 6 Contents Preface – A new focus 3 Introduction 5 Part 1 – Foundation studies Key terms 11 Chapter 1 – Understanding the human domain 15 Chapter 2 – Understanding conflict 35 Chapter 3 – Understanding violence 47 Chapter 4 – Understanding prevention 69 Section 1 – The current model – theory 70 Section 2 – The current model – practice 76 Section 3 – Upstream prevention and peacebuilding 93 Part 2 – The Understand to Prevent concept Chapter 5 – Identifying the military task 115 Chapter 6 – The way ahead – the Comprehensive Contact Team 125 Afterword 133 Annexes A – Some forms of leadership 135 B – The Sons of Iraq, 2005-12 136 C – World Development Report 2011 recommendations 140 D – The Responsibility to Protect 142 E – 198 Methods of Nonviolent Action (Gene Sharp) 144 F – The Kosovo Crisis, 1998-99 148 G – The United Nations 152 H – The UN Security Council 153 J – The Rwanda Genocide, 1994 155 K – Blood Diamonds – Sierra Leone, 1991-2002 158 L – Black Hawk Down – Somalia, 1993 161 M – The Fall of Gaddafi – Libya, 2011 163 N – Confrontation analysis 164 7 Contents P – Peacebuilding pathways 165 Q – Major arms control treaties and agreements 168 R – Endorsing organisations 170 S – How were the Sustainable