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Future Defence Review Working Paper Number 1 Royal United Services Institute July 2009
FUTURE DEFENCE REVIEW Working Paper Number 1 Royal United Services Institute July 2009 Preparing for the Lean Years Malcolm Chalmers Issue Future Defence Review Working Papers How will British defence spending fare in an age of austerity? This series provides Context independent analysis and opinion on issues that The core defence budgets for 2009/10 and 2010/11 have already been are likely to feature in a set, and are unlikely to be substantially altered. But, in the immediate Future Defence Review. aftermath of the next election, most analysts now expect there to be a new comprehensive spending review, leading to a prolonged period of It seeks to promote public austerity, including in defence. a vigorous and comprehensive debate, unconstrained by any Key Findings preconceptions of Britain’s role in the ¾ If the MoD’s current and capital budgets are reduced in line world or the purposes with those for the whole government (excluding interest of its armed forces, payments and social security), total defence spending would amongst political fall by an estimated 6.8% in real terms between 2010/11 parties, the academic and 2013/14. The estimated reduction over the six years to community, industry 2016/17 would be 11% in real terms. and the electorate as a whole. ¾ If the MoD succeeds in obtaining an exemption from the full impact of planned capital cuts, it could face pressure from another source. Assuming, for example, that health and education are given special treatment and their budgets are frozen at 2010 levels in real terms, and that the rate of growth Related analysis: in social security spending is reduced to 1% per year, this would www.rusi.org/fdr leave the rest of government, including the MoD, facing a cut of 14% in their budgets over the period from 2010 to 2016. -
Defence and National Security Strategic Review 2017
2017 DEFENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIC REVIEW STRATEGIC REVIEW REVIEW STRATEGIC 2017 Defence and National Security Strategic Review 2017 DICoD - Bureau des éditions - Octobre 2017 Defence and National Security Strategic Review 2017 1 DEFENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIC REVIEW PREFACE BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC . 5 FOREWORD BY THE MINISTER FOR THE ARMED FORCES . 9 INTRODUCTION . 13 PART A A RAPID AND LASTING DETERIORATION OF THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT . 16 1 . A challenged international system . 17 1 .1 . The multilateral order called into question . 17 1 .2 . Deconstructing the European security architecture . 19 1 .3 . Tensions within the European Union . 19 2 . France, exposed and committed . 20 2 .1 . Simultaneous and long-term commitments . 20 • Direct attacks on the national territory . 20 • The vulnerable Sahel-Sahara region . 21 • A destabilized Middle East . 22 • Tensions on Europe’s eastern and northern flanks . 23 2 .2 . Risk areas . 24 • The Mediterranean and its southern regions . 24 • Balkans . 24 • Sub-Saharan Africa . 25 • Asia . 26 3 . Multiple weaknesses aggravating crises . 29 3 .1 . Demographic and migration pressure . 29 3 .2 . Climate change . 29 3 .3 . Sanitary risks . 30 3 .4 . Energy rivalries . 30 3 .5 . Organised crime . 31 4 . Disruptive technological and digital innovation . 31 4 .1 . A double risk: technology lag and operational levelling . 32 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE 4 .2 . Growing threats in cyberspace . 33 2 DEFENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIC REVIEW PART B NEW FORMS OF WARFARE AND CONFLICT . 36 1 . Harder, more disseminated threats . 37 1 .1 . Entrenchment and spread of jihadist terrorism . 37 1 .2 . Accelerating proliferation . 38 • Spread of conventional weaponry . -
Managing the Security Dilemma in East Asia: the Potential and Performance of Confidence Building Measures*
Managing the Security Dilemma in East Asia: The Potential and Performance of Confidence Building Measures* Tamotsu Fukuda Strategic and Defence Studies Centre Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies The Australian National University Canberra December 2002 Abstract: After the end of the Cold War, many states in East Asia embarked on robust military build-up and defence modernisation programs. In light of this development, one of the main security concerns in the region stemmed from the fact that such weapons acquisition programs were conducted with a relative lack of transparency with respect to regional states’ objectives and motivations. In an effort to prevent the military build- up/modernisation programs from escalating into a regional arms race, East Asian countries began implementing confidence building measures (CBMs) mainly through the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF). This paper assesses the performance of the CBMs that have been implemented in the region and examines their potential in preventing arms races. The paper finds that most measures implemented in East Asia are transparency measures which do not require strong political commitment, while the implementation of constraint measures remains minimal. The region, thus, has not reached a point where it is sufficient to prevent arms races. One of the important reasons for this insufficient level of cooperation stems from the lack of the acceptance of the status quo. Without the acceptance of the status quo or an agreement that the status quo is changed only through peaceful means, CBMs and arms control arrangements will be of nominal value in East Asia. Introduction Overcoming the security dilemma is one of the most important challenges that states in East Asia face today in the twenty-first century.1 Since the end of the Cold War, the region has made efforts to ease the security dilemma. -
OSP11: Nuclear Weapons Policy 1967-1998
OPERATIONAL SELECTION POLICY OSP11 NUCLEAR WEAPONS POLICY 1967-1998 Revised November 2005 1 Authority 1.1 The National Archives' Acquisition Policy announced the Archive's intention of developing Operational Selection Policies across government. These would apply the collection themes described in the overall policy to the records of individual departments and agencies. 1.2 Operational Selection Policies are intended to be working tools for those involved in the selection of public records. This policy may therefore be reviewed and revised in the light of comments from users of the records or from archive professionals, the experience of departments in using the policy, or as a result of newly discovered information. There is no formal cycle of review, but comments would be welcomed at any time. The extent of any review or revision exercise will be determined according to the nature of the comments received. If you have any comments upon this policy, please e-mail records- [email protected] or write to: Acquisition and Disposition Policy Manager Records Management Department The National Archives Kew Richmond Surrey TW9 4DU 1.3 Operational Selection Policies do not provide guidance on access to selected records. 2 Scope 2.1 This policy relates to all public records on British nuclear weapons policy and development. The departments and agencies concerned are the Prime Minister’s Office, the Cabinet Office, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Security Policy Department, Defence Department, Atomic Energy and Disarmament Department, and Arms Control and Disarmament Department), HM Treasury (Defence and Material Department), the Department of Trade and Industry (Atomic Energy, and Export Control and Non-Proliferation Directorate), the Ministry of Defence (MOD), the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE) and the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA). -
The Utility of Military Force and Public Understanding in Today's Britain
EUROPE HEW STRACHAN, RUTH HARRIS The Utility of Military Force and Public Understanding in Today’s Britain For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA213-1 The Global Strategic Partnership (GSP), a consortium of research, academic and industry organisations that is led by RAND Europe, provides ongoing analytical support to the UK Ministry of Defence. Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UK © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. RAND Europe is a not-for-profit research organisation that helps to improve policy and decision making through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org www.randeurope.org Table of Contents Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................... -
Defence and Security After Brexit Understanding the Possible Implications of the UK’S Decision to Leave the EU Compendium Report
Defence and security after Brexit Understanding the possible implications of the UK’s decision to leave the EU Compendium report James Black, Alex Hall, Kate Cox, Marta Kepe, Erik Silfversten For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1786 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif., and Cambridge, UK © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: HMS Vanguard (MoD/Crown copyright 2014); Royal Air Force Eurofighter Typhoon FGR4, A Chinook Helicopter of 18 Squadron, HMS Defender (MoD/Crown copyright 2016); Cyber Security at MoD (Crown copyright); Brexit (donfiore/fotolia); Heavily armed Police in London (davidf/iStock) RAND Europe is a not-for-profit organisation whose mission is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org www.rand.org/randeurope Defence and security after Brexit Preface This RAND study examines the potential defence and security implications of the United Kingdom’s (UK) decision to leave the European Union (‘Brexit’). -
Is Non-Offensive Defence Viable As a Strategy for National Security?
Is Non-Offensive Defence Viable As A Strategy For National Security? IS NON-OFFENSIVE DEFENCE VIABLE AS A STRATEGY FOR NATIONAL SECURITY? By LTC Goh Nichola ABSTRACT Non-Offensive Defence is described as the strategic defence stance taken by a country to safeguard its naonal interest. Without being aggressive with its military, a naon can potenally deter an aggressor, through its uneven terrain or foreign alliances. In this essay, the author states that non-offensive defence is viable as a strategy only if certain condions are fulfilled—suitable geography, benign strategic environment and neutral foreign outreach. In the case of Japan, the author puts forth an addional condion, which is alliances. In the author’s opinion, however, Non-Offensive defence is only fully viable if the three condions highlighted above are met. Keywords: Offence, Defence, Strategic, Condions, Environment INTRODUCTION extremist groups) and hybrid taccs (e.g. cyberaacks) employed by state actors. Non-Offensive Defence (NOD) gained prominence during the height of the Cold War in the late 1970s to THE CONCEPT OF NON-OFFENSIVE early 1980s as a strategy for the North Atlanc Treaty DEFENCE Organisaon (NATO). Nevertheless, it has remained The concept of NOD originated during the Cold prominent in the discourse of security studies ll today. War as a means of defusing tensions between NATO In this essay, the author argues that non-offensive and the Warsaw Pact. Moller and Wiberg idenfied the defence is viable as a strategy for naonal security only three purposes of NOD as follows: (1) to facilitate arms if the following condions are fulfilled—the geography control and disarmament, (2) to strengthen peace by of the country in queson must defensible, its strategic ruling out pre-empve and prevenve wars, and (3) to environment must be benign, and the way it conducts 1 provide effecve yet non-suicidal defensive opons. -
Lawful Targets in Cyber Operations: Does the Principle of Distinction Apply?
Lawful Targets in Cyber Operations: Does the Principle of Distinction Apply? Noam Lubell 89 INT’L L. STUD. 252 (2013) Volume 89 2013 International Law Studies 2013 Lawful Targets in Cyber Operations: Does the Principle of Distinction Apply? Noam Lubell* I. INTRODUCTION M ost of the advanced and largest militaries in the world have, in recent years, devoted significant attention and resources to the development of the capacity to conduct—and defend against—cyber operations.1 Indeed, cyber operations feature prominently in discussions over future conflicts and are expected to be an inherent and major component in the waging of war. But cyber operations are not usually conducted with the aim of straightforward material harm to a physical military object and their use * Reader in Law, School of Law, University of Essex, United Kingdom. Thanks are due to Marty Ehlenbach for research assistance and to Audrey Guinchard for comments. 1. U.S. Department of Defense, Department of Defense Strategy for Operating in Cyberspace (2011), available at http://www.defense.gov/news/d20110714cyber.pdf; HM Government, Securing Britain in an Age of Uncertainty: UK Strategic Defence and Securi- ty Review (2010), available at http://www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/sites/default/files /resources/strategic-defence-security-review.pdf; NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, http://www.ccdcoe.org/; Jim Wolf, China Cyber Capability Puts U.S. Forces at Risk: Report, REUTERS (Mar. 8, 2012, 12:11 AM), http://www.reuters.com /article/2012/03/08/us-china-usa-cyberwar-idUSBRE8270AF20120308; Nick Hopkins, Militarisation of Cyberspace: How the Global Power Struggle Moved Online, GUARDIAN (Apr. -
Towards a Tier One Royal Air Force
TOWARDS A TIER ONE ROYAL AIR FORCE MARK GUNZINGER JACOB COHN LUKAS AUTENRIED RYAN BOONE TOWARDS A TIER ONE ROYAL AIR FORCE MARK GUNZINGER JACOB COHN LUKAS AUTENRIED RYAN BOONE 2019 ABOUT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS (CSBA) The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent, nonpartisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security strategy and investment options. CSBA’s analysis focuses on key questions related to existing and emerging threats to U.S. national security, and its goal is to enable policymakers to make informed decisions on matters of strategy, security policy, and resource allocation. ©2019 Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. All rights reserved. ABOUT THE AUTHORS Mark Gunzinger is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Mr. Gunzinger has served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Forces, Transformation and Resources. A retired Air Force Colonel and Command Pilot, he joined the Office of the Secretary of Defense in 2004 and was appointed to the Senior Executive Service and served as Principal Director of the Department’s central staff for the 2005–2006 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). He served as Director for Defense Transformation, Force Planning and Resources on the National Security Council staff. Mr. Gunzinger holds an M.S. in National Security Strategy from the National War College, a Master of Airpower Art and Science degree from the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, an M.P.A. from Central Michigan University, and a B.S. in Chemistry from the United States Air Force Academy. -
International Affairs and the British Defence and Security Policy Debate: the Bibliometric Context
International Affairs and the British defence and security policy debate: the bibliometric context ANDREW M. DORMAN AND MATTHEW R. H. UTTLEY Introduction With the notion of learning from the past in mind, this virtual issue contains 16 articles drawn from the International Affairs archive that provide insights into key aspects of British defence and security policy. This introductory article serves two purposes. First, it draws on the results of a quantitative bibliometric study to describe and assess the contribution that International Affairs has made to the postwar UK defence and security debate. In doing so, it demonstrates how the journal has been, and continues to be, the primary locus of scholarly academic debates and a hub for the dissemination of policy-relevant research on national defence and security issues. Second, it draws on the bibliometric study to explain the criteria for the selection of the subsequent articles, placing them within the context of the following five enduring debates: 1. Defence strategy and policy 2. Defence reviews 3. Civil–military–societal relations 4. Nuclear debate 5. The impact of outside ‘events’—Scottish independence referendum and Brexit The salience of International Affairs in the British defence and security debate Perhaps not surprisingly, during the first three decades afterInternational Affairs was founded in 1922 the editors placed their emphasis on publishing articles on international politics. However, during the early 1950s attention turned to British defence policy issues and, in the years that followed, the engagement of Interna- tional Affairs with this area of study has grown exponentially. A consequence is that the articles included in this virtual edition represent a fraction of the much larger body of scholarly contributions to British defence and security policy analysis and debate in the journal since the first decade after the Second World War. -
For Review Only
ORE Open Research Exeter TITLE A very British national security state: Formal and informal institutions in the design of UK security policy AUTHORS Thomson, C; Blagden, D JOURNAL British Journal of Politics and International Relations DEPOSITED IN ORE 30 May 2018 This version available at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/33014 COPYRIGHT AND REUSE Open Research Exeter makes this work available in accordance with publisher policies. A NOTE ON VERSIONS The version presented here may differ from the published version. If citing, you are advised to consult the published version for pagination, volume/issue and date of publication The British Journal of Politics and International Relations A Very British National Security State: Formal and Informal Institutions in the Design of UK Security Policy Journal: The British Journal of Politics and International Relations ManuscriptFor ID BJPIR-1374.R2 Review Only Manuscript Type: Original Article Institutions, security policy, audience costs, national security council, Keywords: strategic defence and security review, security elites Page 1 of 32 The British Journal of Politics and International Relations 1 2 1 3 Table 1: The Pre- and Post-2010 Evolution of UK Security Policy Machinery and Processes 4 Pre-2010 Post-2010 5 Cabinet-level security policy National Security Committee2 National Security Council3 6 formulation/coordination body 7 Detailed statement of Defence White Paper4 Strategic Defence and Security 8 defence/security posture and Review5 9 associated force structure 10 Top-level public statement -
Prospect Theory and the Defence in Clausewitz's on War Paper
Prospect theory and the defence in Clausewitz’s On War Paper presented to the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, 16 March 2016, Atlanta, Georgia. Kenneth Payne, KCL It is quite clear how greatly the objective nature of war makes it a matter of assessing probabilities.1 Carl von Clausewitz, somewhat cryptically, argued that defence in war was stronger than attack. This seems to jar with much military writing then and now which praises the dynamism of the offensive and advocates using surprise as a means of overcoming an adversary’s strengths. Seizing the initiative, particularly when done by bold, visionary generalship, is the way to win victory in battle. By contrast, the defence seems reactive and passive, not commonly traits praised in military commanders or strategists. Waiting, Clausewitz averred, is the ‘leading feature’ of the defence.2 Passivity in the face of enemy hostility is not commonly remarked upon as a feature of martial prowess. Even when an attack was underway, the defensive force would remain on the back foot, reacting to events, rather than shaping them decisively; passively enduring the blows of the assaulting armies. As Clausewitz saw it, ‘prudence is the true spirit of defence, courage and confidence the true spirit of the attack’.3 How then could defence be the stronger of the two forces in war? Nonetheless, I argue here that Clausewitz was essentially correct, and for reasons that modern psychology would recognize. Specifically, I claim that the defence is stronger because we have an innate aversion to losing possessions, and this causes us both to fight more tenaciously to hold on to what we have, and to risk more to secure it.