Five Tests for the Integrated Review
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Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies Occasional Paper Five Tests for the Integrated Review Will Jessett, Tom McKane and Peter Watkins Five Tests for the Integrated Review Will Jessett, Tom McKane and Peter Watkins RUSI Occasional Paper, December 2020 Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies ii Five Tests for the Integrated Review 189 years of independent thinking on defence and security The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) is the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank. Its mission is to inform, influence and enhance public debate on a safer and more stable world. RUSI is a research-led institute, producing independent, practical and innovative analysis to address today’s complex challenges. Since its foundation in 1831, RUSI has relied on its members to support its activities. Together with revenue from research, publications and conferences, RUSI has sustained its political independence for 189 years. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author, and do not reflect the views of RUSI or any other institution to which the authors are or were affiliated. Published in 2020 by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution – Non-Commercial – No-Derivatives 4.0 International Licence. For more information, see <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/>. RUSI Occasional Paper, December 2020. ISSN 2397-0286 (Online). Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies Whitehall London SW1A 2ET United Kingdom +44 (0)20 7747 2600 www.rusi.org RUSI is a registered charity (No. 210639) Contents Acknowledgements v Executive Summary vii Introduction 1 A Basis for Comparison 2 Test 1: How Good Were the Threat and Risk Assessments and Policy Baselines in Previous Reviews? 5 Assessment 7 Test 2: How Good Were the Defence Planning Responses? 9 Operational Concepts 9 ‘Jointery’ 10 International Coordination and Cooperation 11 The Comprehensive Approach 13 Defence Industrial Policy, Science, Technology and Innovation 14 Assessment 15 Test 3: Did the Reviews Make the Right Decisions on Capabilities and Force Structures? 17 Assessment 20 Test 4: Were Sufficient Efforts Made in Previous Reviews to Achieve an Enduring Balance Between Policy, Commitments, the Forward Programme and the Defence Budget? 23 Real Terms Changes in the Defence Budget 23 Funding of the Nuclear Deterrent 25 Financial Settlements in the Major Reviews 26 Assessment 28 Test 5: Did the Changes Made to the Management of Defence in Previous Reviews Produce the Desired Effect of Greater Efficiency and Effectiveness? 31 Assessment 34 Context and Prospects 37 About the Authors 39 Acknowledgements In March 2020, RUSI published a report in which one of the authors (Will Jessett) and Malcolm Chalmers set out a range of defence policy and planning issues the Integrated Review would need to consider. Work on the review has continued during the summer and autumn, and the government has signalled that a white paper setting out the results of the review will be published early next year. This paper proposes an analytical framework comprising five ‘tests’ against which the Integrated Review could be assessed by comparison with the most significant defence and security reviews since 1990. It focuses on the defence aspects of the Integrated Review, the major element by cost and value and the area of the authors’ expertise – the three of us worked directly on many of the major and minor reviews since the end of the Cold War. We have tried to make our reflections as objective as possible. In preparing and revising this paper, the authors have been fortunate to receive insightful comments from a group of former fellow policy professionals and from academics, and we are very grateful for their assistance. The resulting judgements, however, are entirely our own. We would also like to express our thanks to RUSI’s publications and communications teams for their help with completing and publishing this paper at the end of a challenging year. Executive Summary HE INTEGRATED REVIEW has been billed as the deepest and most radical review of UK foreign, defence, security and development policy since the end of the Cold War. How can Tsuch a claim be assessed? This paper focuses on the defence aspects of the review, and proposes five ‘tests’ to compare it with the most significant defence and security reviews since 1990. The first test is: how accurate were the assessments in previous reviews about changing threats and risks to the UK and international security and stability, and the quality of the headline policy responses? The reviews during this period made by and large the right calls about the trajectory of risks and threats and set baseline policies that were appropriate to those risks. But overall, the reviews were too reactive to events and, as a consequence, placed too much emphasis on threats (such as international terrorism) emanating from fragile and failing states, while not foreseeing the extent and pace of the resurgent threat from Russia or the wider national security threat posed by China. They also did not provide a strong enough policy response to some of the biggest risks, particularly pandemics and climate change. The Integrated Review is taking place in an international environment that appears more complex and dangerous than at any time in the past 30 years. There is an urgent need for a clear and precise assessment of the changing strategic context and a bold, substantive headline policy response to these issues in the Integrated Review of the sort the government has been trailing. The clarity and credibility of the risk assessment and the depth, quality and plausibility of the response will be a crucial first test of whether the review is likely to live up to its billing. This will be the most difficult of the five tests to apply to the review as it is published but could remain a yardstick for subsequent comparison. The second test is: how successful were the defence planning responses in previous reviews and which have had the greatest impact on activities, posture and capability/force structure planning? Three main themes percolate through the post-Cold War years. First, a journey towards greater ‘jointery’ between the three services, which produced better integrated and more operationally effective armed forces. The growing salience of the cyber and space domains has the potential to take this integration further and improve how the armed forces operate across all domains of warfare. Second, a recognition, strongest in the 1998 and 2015 reviews, that the UK’s national security and the effectiveness (and affordability) of the UK’s armed forces depend on high levels of international coordination and cooperation, with the 2015 review seeking to make defence more ‘international by design’. Third, a growing emphasis on better coordination between defence and the other ‘levers’ of national power, a focus of the first two Strategic Defence and Security Reviews in 2010 and 2015. After the latter, in 2018, new life was breathed into the ‘comprehensive approach’ by the ‘Fusion Doctrine’. And, throughout, the Ministry of Defence viii Five Tests for the Integrated Review (MoD) has sustained a focus on innovation and technology-led modernisation to improve the cost-effectiveness of the UK armed forces. Previous reviews made variable, but significant, progress with these planning responses, with net positive results. The test for the Integrated Review will be whether the combination of approaches that it prescribes is coherent and realistic; and will drive resource allocation, operational prioritisation and fresh moves towards stronger national integration and greater international cooperation to match the growing risks to the UK’s national security. The third test is: were the changes to capabilities and force structures in each of the reviews the right ones? Although the size of the UK armed forces has reduced significantly over the past 30 years, their shape has changed little. The changes instituted by the main reviews have mainly been quite cautious and incremental, reflecting pressures to maintain a broad spectrum of capabilities, including as hedges against uncertainty. These decisions were strongly influenced by the experiences of the conflicts and operations in which the armed forces were involved during the period, and thus as much reactive as proactive. ‘Latency’ – the gap between drawing up force structure plans and the capabilities entering into service, often decades later – has been a major issue. The debate about what constitutes reasonable overall ‘mass’ for the armed forces of a medium-sized military power like the UK has remained contentious. Although today’s military platforms are individually many times more capable, in terms of combat power, than those available in 1990, this has come at the expense of mass. Given the pace of technological change, the changes to force structure and capabilities made in previous reviews did not go far enough, fast enough. A force structure and posture ‘pivot’ of the sort which has been recently trailed by the MoD would require bold and controversial decisions on the balance between investing in ‘sunrise’ and dis-investing in ‘sunset’ capabilities, including further reducing regular manpower numbers. The government is signalling clearly that it will be prepared to make these hard choices. A successful outcome would also require making better use of reserve forces, the civilian defence workforce and defence industry and other suppliers of defence services – turning the ‘whole force by design’ slogan into practical plans. The fourth test is: were sufficient efforts made to achieve an enduring balance between policy, commitments, the forward programme and the defence budget? None of the major post-Cold War reviews properly got to grips with finances. Going into the Integrated Review there was a significant gap between the cost of the defence programme and the budget, particularly over the next two to three years.