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Industry Overview THIS DOCUMENT IS IN DRAFT FORM, INCOMPLETE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND THE INFORMATION MUST BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SECTION HEADED “WARNING” ON THE COVER OF THIS DOCUMENT. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW The information and statistics set forth in this section and elsewhere in this document have been derived from various official and government publications, publicly available market research sources and from the market research report prepared by Frost & Sullivan which was commissioned by us, unless otherwise indicated. We believe that the sources of such information are appropriate sources for such information and we have taken reasonable care in extracting and reproducing such information. We have no reason to believe that such information is false or misleading in any material respect or that any fact has been omitted that would render such information false or misleading in any material respect. The information has not been independently verified by our Company, the Joint Sponsors, the Joint Global Coordinators, the Joint Bookrunners, the Joint Lead Managers, the Underwriters, any other party involved in the [REDACTED] or any of our or their respective directors, officers, representatives, affiliates or advisers and no representation is given as to its correctness, accuracy and completeness. Certain information and statistics included herein, including those excerpted from official and government publications and sources in China, may not be consistent with other information and statistics compiled within or outside China by third parties. Our Directors confirm that, after taking reasonable care, there is no adverse change in the market information since the date of the Frost & Sullivan Report, which may qualify, contradict or have an impact on the information as disclosed in this section. SOURCE OF INFORMATION In connection with the [REDACTED], we have engaged Frost & Sullivan, an independent third party, to conduct a study of the catering service market in China. Frost & Sullivan is a global consulting company founded in 1961 in New York and has over 40 global offices with more than 2,000 industry consultants, market research analysts, technology analysts and economists. Frost & Sullivan’s services include technology research, independent market research, economic research, corporate best practices advising, training, customer research, competitive intelligence and corporate strategy. Frost & Sullivan has been covering the Chinese market since the 1990’s. Frost & Sullivan has four offices in China and direct access to the most knowledgeable experts and market participants in the catering service industry and its industry consultants, on average, have more than five years of experience. We have included certain information from the Frost & Sullivan Report in this document because we believe such information facilitates an understanding of China’s QSR market for prospective investors. The methodology used by Frost & Sullivan in gathering the relevant market data in compiling the Frost & Sullivan Report included secondary research and primary interviews. Secondary research involves information integration of data and publication from publicly available resources, including official data and announcements from PRC government agencies, and market research on industry and enterprise player information issued by our chief competitors. Primary interviews were conducted with relevant institutions to obtain objective and factual data and prospective predictions. Frost & Sullivan considered the source of information as reliable because (i) it is general market practice to adopt official data and –71– THIS DOCUMENT IS IN DRAFT FORM, INCOMPLETE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND THE INFORMATION MUST BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SECTION HEADED “WARNING” ON THE COVER OF THIS DOCUMENT. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW announcements from various PRC government agencies; and (ii) the information obtained from interviews is for reference only and the findings in this report are not directly based on the results of these interviews. Frost & Sullivan has proven track records in providing market research studies to government and private clients in the regions where the Frost & Sullivan Report covers. In compiling and preparing the Frost & Sullivan Report, Frost & Sullivan has adopted the following assumptions: (i) China’s economy is likely to maintain a steady growth in the next decade; (ii) China’s social, economic and political environment is likely to remain stable in the forecast period, which ensures the stable and healthy development of the QSR market; and (iii) there is no war or large scale disaster during the forecast period. We agreed to pay Frost & Sullivan a fee of RMB980,000 for the preparation of the Frost & Sullivan Report, which had been paid as of the date of this document. CATERING SERVICE MARKET IN CHINA Catering service refers to the commercial activities of providing to consumers prepared foods and consumption sites and facilities. China’s catering service market has experienced rapid growth in recent years along with its rapid economic development. The continuous development and urbanization in China drove the increasing disposable income, growing middle class and widespread dining-out trend throughout the country. All these factors contributed to a robust growth in China’s catering service market. As measured by retail sales value, China’s catering service market grew at a CAGR of 15.1% from RMB1,265.2 billion in 2008 to RMB2,556.9 billion in 2013. Going forward, with expanding middle class population, continuous increase in per capita annual disposable income and a growing preference to dining-out, the Chinese catering service market will maintain sustainable growth along with the steady economy growth in China. According to Frost & Sullivan, the retail sales value of China’s catering service market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.8% to reach RMB4,460.2 billion in 2018. Retail Value of Catering Service Market (China), 2008-2018E Retail Value Growth Rate (%) (RMB Billion) 5,000 60% 2013-2018E CAGR:11.8% 4,460.2 50% 4,000 3,992.1 3,561.4 3,170.9 40% 3,000 2,823.5 2,556.9 2008-2013 CAGR: 15.1 % 2,344.8 30% 2,063.5 2,000 1,764.8 1,478.3 20% 1,265.2 19.4% 1,000 16.8% 16.9% 13.6% 10% 12.3% 12.3% 12.1% 11.7% 9.0% 10.4% 0 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Source: Historical data is from National Bureau of Statistics of China; Forecast data is from Frost & Sullivan analysis –72– THIS DOCUMENT IS IN DRAFT FORM, INCOMPLETE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND THE INFORMATION MUST BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SECTION HEADED “WARNING” ON THE COVER OF THIS DOCUMENT. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Factors Affecting the Catering Service Industry Economic Growth and Increasing Disposable Income In line with the growing Chinese economy, per capita nominal GDP in China has grown at a fast pace in the past several years and is expected to maintain solid growth in the future. The per capita nominal GDP in China grew at a CAGR of 12.0% from 2008 to reach RMB41,803 in 2013, and is forecasted by IMF to further grow at a CAGR of 9.2% to reach RMB65,012 in 2018. Economic growth has demonstrated positive effect on Chinese residents’ purchasing power. According to Frost & Sullivan, the per capita annual disposable income of urban households is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.2% to reach RMB43,815 from 2013 to 2018. Per Capita Annual Disposable Income of Urban Households (China), 2008-2018F Annual Growth Rate Income (RMB) 50,000 Per Capita Annual Disposable Income of Urban Households 50% 43,815 Annual Growth Rate 39,948 40,000 2008-2013 2013-2018F 36,359 40% 33,053 CAGR 11.3% 10.2% 29,880 26,955 30% 30,000 24,565 21,810 19,109 20,000 15,781 17,175 20% 10,000 14.1% 12.6% 10% 11.3% 9.7% 10.9% 10.6% 10.0% 9.9% 9.7% 8.8% 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F Year Source: Historical data is from National Bureau of Statistics of China; Forecast data is from Frost & Sullivan analysis Population Growth and Rapid Urbanization Due to the rapid economic development in China and the influx of migrants from rural areas to urban areas, China’s urban population has been steadily increasing. According to Frost & Sullivan, with the continuous development of urban facilities, China’s urban population is expected to experience a CAGR of 2.7% from 2013 to 2018 to reach 833.4 million by 2018 with an urbanization rate of 59.7%. The growing middle class population is also expected to drive the growth of the catering service industry in China. According to Frost & Sullivan, the total number of middle class in China is expected to further grow at a CAGR of 13.9% from 2013 to 2018 to reach 525.6 million. Meanwhile, the number of middle class is expected to represent 37.7% of China’s total population in 2018. –73– THIS DOCUMENT IS IN DRAFT FORM, INCOMPLETE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE AND THE INFORMATION MUST BE READ IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SECTION HEADED “WARNING” ON THE COVER OF THIS DOCUMENT. INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Changing Consumer Behavior With increasing disposable income and urbanization, consumers dine in restaurants more frequently. From 2008 to 2013, dining-out expenditure as a percentage of total dining expenditure of urban households increased from 21.6% to 23.2%. There are three key drivers of the dining-out trend: (i) together with the continuous growth in economy and urbanization, the average income level of Chinese households has also increased continuously in recent years, (ii) the PRC Government has released a series of stimulus policies to boost domestic consumption, and (iii) lifestyle is expected to continue to change in China. Chinese people are willing to choose out-dining instead of home-dining.
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