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SC-1 a Toss Up, Momentum with Sanford

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SC-1 a Toss Up, Momentum with Sanford FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE May 5, 2013 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE SC-1 a Toss Up, Momentum with Sanford Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final poll of the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a race that's too close to call, with Republican Mark Sanford leading Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch 47-46. The 1 point lead for Sanford represents a 10 point reversal from PPP's poll of the race two weeks ago, when Colbert Busch led by 9 points at 50-41. Sanford has gotten back into the race by nationalizing it and painting Colbert Busch as a liberal. A plurality of voters in the district- 47%- say they think Colbert Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as ideologically 'about right.' Colbert Busch's favorability rating has dropped a net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at 50/44. If SC-1 voters went to the polls on Tuesday and voted for the candidate they personally liked better, Colbert Busch would be the definite winner. That's why Sanford's campaign has tried to shift the focus toward national Democrats who are unpopular in the district, and that's been a key in helping him to make this race competitive again. Nancy Pelosi has a 24/61 approval rating in SC-1 and although voters don't like Sanford, they do like him better than Pelosi by a 53/37 margin. The other key development in this race over the last two weeks is that Republicans are returning to the electorate. On our last poll, conducted right after the trespassing charges against Sanford became public, we found that the likely electorate had voted for Mitt Romney by only 5 points in a district that he actually won by 18. That suggested many Republican voters were depressed and planning to stay home. On our final poll we find an electorate that's Romney +13- that's still more Democratic than the turnout from last fall, but it's a lot better for Sanford than it was a couple weeks ago. “The special election in South Carolina couldn’t be much closer,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “At this point it’s just a question of whether voters are more put off by Mark Sanford or the Democrats in Washington.” PPP surveyed 1,239 likely voters on May 4th and 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-2.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. Phone: 888 621-6988 Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] South Carolina 1st Congressional District Survey Results Q1 The candidates in the special election for Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of President Congress are Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Barack Obama’s job performance? Busch, Republican Mark Sanford, and Green 39% Party candidate Eugene Platt. If the election Approve .......................................................... was today, who would you vote for? Disapprove...................................................... 54% Elizabeth Colbert Busch.................................. 46% Not sure .......................................................... 7% Mark Sanford .................................................. 47% Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Nancy Pelosi? Eugene Platt ................................................... 4% Favorable........................................................ 24% Undecided....................................................... 4% 61% Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Unfavorable .................................................... of Elizabeth Colbert Busch? Not sure .......................................................... 16% Favorable........................................................ 50% Q8 Do you have a higher opinion of Mark Sanford or Barack Obama? Unfavorable .................................................... 44% Mark Sanford .................................................. 48% Not sure .......................................................... 6% 44% Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Barack Obama................................................ of Mark Sanford? Not sure .......................................................... 8% Favorable........................................................ 43% Q9 Do you have a higher opinion of Mark Sanford or Nancy Pelosi? Unfavorable .................................................... 54% Mark Sanford .................................................. 53% Not sure .......................................................... 3% 37% Q4 Do you think Elizabeth Colbert Busch’s Nancy Pelosi................................................... positions on the issues are too liberal, too Not sure .......................................................... 10% conservative, or about right? Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Too liberal ....................................................... 47% of Stephen Colbert? Too conservative............................................. 4% Favorable........................................................ 36% About right ...................................................... 43% Unfavorable .................................................... 25% Not sure .......................................................... 6% Not sure .......................................................... 39% Q5 Do you think Mark Sanford’s positions on the Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion issues are too liberal, too conservative, or of Jenny Sanford? about right? Favorable........................................................ 54% 8% Too liberal ....................................................... Unfavorable .................................................... 19% 38% Too conservative............................................. Not sure .......................................................... 27% About right ...................................................... 48% Not sure .......................................................... 6% May 4-5, 2013 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 1,239 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q17 Do you favor or oppose requiring background of Larry Flynt? checks on individuals who purchase guns at gun shows? Favorable........................................................ 8% Strongly favor.......... 68% Strongly oppose...... 4% Unfavorable .................................................... 49% Somewhat favor...... 16% Not sure .................. 3% Not sure .......................................................... 43% Q13 Does Nikki Haley’s endorsement of Mark Somewhat oppose .. 8% Sanford make you more or less likely to vote Q18 Does the Republican Party’s opposition to for him, or does it not make a difference? background checks at gun shows make you 12% more or less likely to support its candidates in More likely....................................................... the next election? Less likely ....................................................... 27% More likely............... 19% Doesn't make a difference................ 35% Doesn't make a difference .............................. 59% Less likely ............... 42% Not sure .................. 4% Not sure .......................................................... 2% Q19 In the last presidential election, did you vote for Q14 Does Tim Scott’s endorsement of Mark Sanford Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? make you more or less likely to vote for him, or does it not make a difference? Barack Obama................................................ 42% More likely....................................................... 21% Mitt Romney.................................................... 55% Less likely ....................................................... 24% Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 4% Doesn't make a difference .............................. 53% Q20 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat Not sure .......................................................... 1% conservative, or very conservative? Q15 Does Lindsey Graham’s endorsement of Mark Very liberal...................................................... 11% Sanford make you more or less likely to vote for him, or does it not make a difference? Somewhat liberal ............................................ 12% More likely....................................................... 18% Moderate......................................................... 28% Less likely ....................................................... 25% Somewhat conservative.................................. 29% Doesn't make a difference .............................. 57% Very conservative ........................................... 19% Not sure .......................................................... 0% Q21 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Q16 Does Larry Flynt’s endorsement of Mark Woman ........................................................... 54% Sanford make you more or less likely to vote 46% for him, or does it not make a difference? Man................................................................. Q22 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, More likely......................................................
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