Geography, M.V

RUSSIAN GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY

FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHY, M.V. LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY

INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY, RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

No. 04 [v. 03] 2010 GEOGRAPHY ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINABILITY

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2 Faculty ofScience, Czech Republic University, Masaryk Konečný Milan ofGeography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, A. Kolosov Vladimir ofGeography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Kochurov BorisI. ofGeography,Institute Japan ofEducation, University Hokkaido Himiyama Yukio Association of Tunisian Geographers, Tunisia Hayder Adnane Russia Rosoboronexport, Gutenev Vladimir V. Chinese Academy ofSciences, China Guo Hua Tong ofEcologyandEvolution, Russia Institute Russian Academy ofSciences, Gunin Petr D. ofGeography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Gritsay Olga V. Faculty ofGeography, Russia M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow D’yakonov KirillN. Faculty ofGeography, Russia M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow Dobrolubov Sergey A. Geography andGeoecology, Russia Sankt-Petersburg State University, Faculty of Dmitriev Vasily V. ofPlymouth,University UK Brian Chalkley furgeographie,Insitut Germany Ludwig Universitat Munchen, Maximilians Baume Otfried, Pacific ofGeography, Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, PetrBaklanov Ya. ofdeserts, Institute Turkmenistan Turkmenistan Academy ofSciences, Babaev Agadzhan G. Faculty ofGeography, Russia. M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow S. Tikunov Vladimir Russia University, Faculty ofGeography M.V. Lomonosov State Moscow Kasimov Nikolay S. EDITORS-IN-CHIEF: EDITORIAL BOARD (Secretary-General) Russia ofGeographyInstitute Russian Academy ofSciences KotlyakovM. Vladimir Finland Finnish Meteorological Institute, Zilitinkevich Sergey S. Russia ofEnvironmentalInstitute Geosciences, Russian Academy ofSciences, Viktorov Alexey S. Geographic Institute, Chile Military Vargas RodrigoBarriga et SciencesHumaines” France Université duHavre –UFR “Lettres Thorez Pierre ofGeography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, Tishkov A. Arkady ofGeography,Institute Russia Russian Academy ofSciences, OlgaN. Solomina Ukraine of Sciences, ofGeography Institute Academy National Ukrainean Rudenko Leonid G. and Regional Studies, Poland University Warsaw, Faculty ofGeography Andrzej Richling diGeografia, Italy Instituto Universita degliStudidiRoma “La Sapienza”, Palagiano Cosimo, ofGeography,Institute Mexico National Autonomous ofMexico, University Palacio-Prieto Jose Faculty ofGeography, Russia. M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow Mironenko Nikolay S. Faculty ofGeography, Azerbaijan State University,Baku Mamedov Ramiz Faculty ofGeography, Russia M.V. Lomonosov State University, Moscow Malkhazova Svetlana M. ofBehavioral Sciences,Institute USA ofColoradoUniversity atBoulder, O’Loughlin John The Netherlands Sciences, ofAppliedEarth Department of University Delft Technology Kroonenberg Salomon, Belgique Université Libre deBruxelles Vandermotten Christian 006.06.2011 12:17:40 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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Enrico Brug Lucianonoli, OlgaSolomina, Spaccino, Ekaterina Dolgova Arkady A.Tishkov Yann Richard RechkemmerAndreas Natalia N.Mitina,BorisM.Malashenkov Alexey A.Kotko Inna A.Nemirovskaya Nikolai G.Makarenko, Lyailya M.Karimova, OlgaA.Kruglun Homayoun Khoshravan GEOGRAPHY NEWS &REVIEWS SUSTAINABILITY ENVIRONMENT 3 CONTENTS IN PINE ( CLIMATE SIGNAL IN THE RING WIDTH, AND CARBON STABLE DENSITY ISOTOPES THE PRODUCTIVITY AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL TURNOVER OF LANDSCAPES OFBIOGEOCHEMICAL TURNOVERAND PRODUCTIVITY .THE ...... 94 . . . L’EUROPERÉGIONALISATIONLADANS L’ÉCONOMIE DE MONDIALE ...... 74 . . . SOCIETY AND ...... SUSTAINING CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION – POLICY, TECHNOLOGY, . . . . .PROTECTION DESIGNINGSTABILITY .ECOSYSTEMSTHEIRIN ...... 54 . . . DETERMINATION OF HYDRO-ECOLOGICAL FACTORS OF THE VOLGA-CASPIAN AQUATIC . . .INVESTMENTS FLOW .OF ...... OF SPECIALTHE DISCOUNTING NECESSITY TREATMENT FOR NATURE TO ASSESS THE OF THESEDIMENTS VOLGA DELTA ...... DISTRIBUTION . OF HYDROCARBONS IN PARTICULATE MATTER AND BOTTOM AND EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION MODE EMPIRICAL AND ...... 25 . . . USING NEURALCASPIAN ARTIFICIAL NETWORK SEA PREDICTION LEVEL MIANKALEH TERRITORIES RESPONSE TO CASPIAN CATASTROPHIC FLUCTUATION . . . . 17. PINUS SILVESTRIS L. NCNRLCUAU ...... CAUCASUS .CENTRAL .IN .) ...... 4 ...... 60 ...... 46 . . . . . 32 . 006.06.2011 12:17:40 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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4 1 and stableisotopes ( Variability ofwidth,maximumdensity 2 Enrico Brugnoli interannual variations of interannual variations temperature in (April-October). The similarity period reflectsthewarm maximum density temperature parameters wasfound. The (r =0.3; positively withtheJuneandJulyprecipitation upper tree limit analyzed. widthofpineatthe The ring parameters wasalso on thesetree-ring influence oftemperature andprecipitation point outdifferent climaticsignal. The chronology width andmaximumdensity indicesofthe ring low correlation between chronology for theElbrusarea. Absenceor chronologies composite allowto construct sufficient agreements width ring between Caucasus. Statistically studied inNorthern of Scotspine( ( and Julyprecipitation. signal canbelargely interpreted astheJune their display acoherent commonsignal. This theindividualsamplesmeansthat between slightly exceed acentury. Those located inCaucasusmeteorological observations ofThe longestcontinuoustime series Caucasus density, Northern * [email protected] e-mail: Porano, Italy; (TR), ABSTRACT KEY WORDS: INTRODUCTION IN CENTRAL CAUCASUS ISOTOPES IN PINE ( AND CARBONDENSITY STABLE CLIMATE SIGNAL IN THE RING WIDTH, δ Corresponding Author Institute ofGeographyInstitute RAS,Moscow, Staromonetny-29, IGRAS,119017Russia; ofAgro-environmentalInstitute BiologyandForestry (IBAF), Via Marconi 2,05010 13 С), tree-ring width, tree-ring maximum width,tree-ring С), tree-ring 0.3; 0.4,p<0.05).Nocorrelation with

Scots pine, stableisotopes in theBaksanvalleycorrelates 1 , OlgaSolomina Pinus sylvestris L. δ δ 13 13 С) in tree-rings С) intree-rings e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: C in annual rings C inannualrings 2* ) were , Luciano Spaccino PINUS SILVESTRIS tree limit and report heretree ourfirstresults. limitandreport oftheupper in Central Caucasus at thevicinity stable isotopes ( and late woodwidth,maximumdensity ring we analyzed and thetotal wingwidth,early reflectdifferent often rings climaticforcings As soonasdifferent parameters oftheannual of climaticsignal inpinetree inCaucasus. rings theresults thispaperwe ofthestudy report In cell division,radialgrowth andlignification). development (cambial influence tree-ring temperatures andprecipitation may season. Thus, alltheseasonalandannual thecurrent growingassimilation during on photosynthetic productionandnetCO season, whilelatewood formation depends from theprecedingreserves growing formation dependsmainlyongrowth tracheiddevelopment.during Earlywood are factors over determined timebyvarious 1991]. Wood [Thomas, thickening properties cell division,enlargement andcell-wall Tree-ring formation consistsofthree stages: dendrochronological approach. solved basing onthe be atleastpartly the climaticparameters, thisproblem can in trees closelyassociates withsomeof areas, where thegrowth ofannualrings the inthepast.In thetimeseries extend to inthisregionvariations itisimportant predict thedecadalandinterannual climatic long oreven shorter. order to In better at thehighelevationare onlyhalfcentury 1 , Ekaterina Dolgova δ 13 С) inpine( Pinus silvestris L. L.) 2 006.06.2011 12:17:40 6 . 0 6 . 2 2 ) 0

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temperatures. decreases thesummerswithlow during summersand thehumidandwarm during valley increasesslope oftheBaksanRiver width ofthepinesgrowing onthesouthern Turmanina [1979] weak orstatisticallyinsignificant. For example widthindiceswasfound to be tree-ring individual meteorological parameters and andthecorrelation between factors acting here isinfluencedbymany simultaneously these wassuccessful, width becausethering review bySolomina[1999]).Sofarnoneof repeatedly sincethe1960s(see undertaken haveusing thewidthofannualrings been to climaticchangesinCaucasus reconstruct exceed theageof400–500years. The attempts trees oftheuppertimberline atinthevicinity upto 3000masl.of pinerises Somepine intheregion.distributed The uppertree limit The pine( orographic [Shahgedanova,2002]. uplift on thePolar front andenhancedbythe insolation anddepressions developing triggered byacombinationofstrong activity July–September inresponse to convective in summer. Precipitation maximaoccur in byastrong characterized convective activity study area islocated, are inparticular slope oftheGreater Caucasus, where the The western ofnorthern andcentralsectors Caucasus to lessthan200mmintheeast. declines from over 2000mminthewestern highprevail.the Azores Annualprecipitation of summerextensions high from theeast.In depression from thewest andtheSiberian oftheIcelandic dominated byextensions circulation over theGreater Caucasusis westerly winter wind. atmospheric In by thecomplextopography andprevailed general, climateIn oftheregion isdefined valleys attheelevationof2200–2500masl. the Greater CaucasusinBaksanand Teberda of are situated inthewestern andcentralpart East. sites analyzed inthisstudy The tree-ring inthewest andCaspianSeainthe Sea Black south oftheEastEuropean Plain the between are The CaucasusMountains located onthe STUDY AREA AND STATE-OF-THE-ART 5 Pinus silvestris L

found outthatthering . )

forests are broadly values were excluded from theanalysis. Each and core segments withlowcorrelation by usingCOFECHA [Holmes, software 1983] procedureThe cross-dating wasvalidated McCarroll, Pettigrew, 2002]. andLuckman, This approach wasadvocated [e.g. earlier although X-ray wasn’t densitometry applied. paper we usetheterm “maximum density” this Arizona) in2009.In Research (Tucson, of was doneintheLaboratory Tree-Ring of theregular densitometry. This routine the reflected lightimagesasasubstitution profile to(Rinntech) obtain brightness of commercially LignoVision available software dpi. Scannedimageswere processed using flat-bed scannerwithhighresolution of1000 was used. thatcores After were scannedby themicrotomeappeared dueto dryness flatanddelete any curvature wood surface ethanol [Schweingruber, 1988]. To make 6hours,toluene during then2hoursofpure apparatus withsolutionofethanoland first. The sampleswere treated bySoxhlet analyses theresins mustbeextracted valley ofthe Teberda River. For densitometry upper tree limit(2300–2400ma.s.l.) inthe sitestwo (KHAT andKHTP)located atthe we used46cores(MaxD) ofpinefrom To chronology develop maximumdensity 1). entitled KHTP(Table one calledCHSandKHAT andKHTPinto one we have combinedsites CHSandCHEinto sample depthofring-width chronologies climate conditions. Thus to enhancethe close to each otherandrepresent thesame the results. Somesites are located quite widthandgraphicalring presentations of 1996]and [Rinn, to measureTSAP software 3.0 system witharesolution of0.01mm boundaries. ring Then we usedLINTAB ver. finer paperto obtainmore contrastbetween collected. They were sandedbyprogressively [Stokes, 1968]. Two cores pertree were analysis indexation routinely usedintree-ring procedures and ofmeasuring, cross-dating chronologies we usedthestandard To andanalyze width thering construct CHRONOLOGIES. MATERIALS AND METHODS. 006.06.2011 12:17:40 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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6 isotopes ( 1800–2005 (Figs. 1–2, Table 1).For thestable site in Khatipara Teberda valleycovers AD chronology widthdensity atthe o nering AD1550–2009and the momentperiod widthpinechronologiesOur ring cover at developed bytheindicesaveraging. 1990]. [Cook, The composite chronology was byusingabi-weight series ring robust mean by averaging theindicesfrom theeachtree- Resulting site chronologies were developed ring-width indicesgenerated bydivision. slope orhorizontaland lineto eachseries orlinewithnegative exponential curve standardized byfittingeitheranegative ARSTAN 1985]. [Cook, Tree-ring were series dimensionless indicesusingtheprogram climate to we series standardized tree-ring related variations trend to andpreserve associated withtree-age. To remove the containbiological series trends tree-ring State (LAV University site, samples oftheResearch vicinity Station oftheMoscow 2001inthe avalanche on29 December from bythe three disks ofpinetrees killed HTValley ofMalaya KHAT HPValley ofMalaya KHTP ie oainNEH E N Location Sites A ForefiGarabashi eldof GAR CHE Eastern slopeof Eastern CHE CHS Southern slopeof Southern CHS A ForefiAzau eldof B. BAZ O Valley ofPsysh river SOF Y Valley ofKyzgych river KYZ KV B. Azau, attheMSU B. Azau, KV century) station (moraine14th glacier Cheget mt. Cheget mt. moraine glacier, terminal valley side) river(right Khatipara valley side) river(left Khatipara (moraine) (upper tree-limit) δ 13 С) analyses we extracted wood С) analyseswe extracted Table 1. List of samples in Caucasus in Table samples 1. of List 43 15 43 15 43 15 43 14 43 26 43 25 43 26 43 27 43 25 951 965 977 478 660 815 835 060 680 11, 23 and 11, 23and 42 28 42 29 42 29 42 30 42 46 41 42 41 42 41 16 41 18 847 201 199 773 272 513 339 592 212 processed for the andlate woodwidthforearly ring thesamples samples. We alsomeasured separately the woodthisonedominates inthe rings early althoughdueto thelarger wood portions, andlate (1960–1999)containsbothearly rings fromThe wood 50annual thatwe extracted flowcone. debris at theedgeofGarabashi 26) (Fig. 3). The site islocated inBaksanvalley δ than ±0.03‰. The results were expressed as Analysisprecision wasgreater Cheadle, UK). Limited,spectrometer (ISOPRIME,Isoprime coupledto anisotopic ratiomass Italy) modelNA1500,Milan, Erba, (Carlo analyzer combustion ofthesamplesinanelemental Tree isotopic by ratiowasdetermined ring (approximately 1.5mg)intincapsules. Germany). The resulting powder wasweighed MM200,Haan, Mills, a Retschmill(Mixer wasgroundfrom using eachsingletree-ring Whole wood (i.e., andlatewood) earlywood R to VPDB [Brugnoli andFarquhar, 2000]according 13 sample C in‰relative to standard the international 208()2002 8(4) 2200 301 7 03Jn 1697–2002 2003June 13(7) 2340 408()20 ue1765–2002 2003June 8(4) 2470 557()20 ue1860–2002 2003June 7(4) 2535 401 1)2004 18(11) 2420 252 1)3Jn 061779–2005 3June2006 24(12) 2285 342 1)2Jn 061709–2005 2June2006 22(11) 2394 021 7 16August 14(7) 2022 321 7 17August 13(7) 2392 δ 13 C =(R andR of samples Number (trees) sample standard /R δ 13 standard represent the С analyses. September September collection Date of August, –1) 2007 2007 × 1000], where 1000],where Age for two 1653–2002 1684–2004 1720–2006 1578–2006 or more series 13 C/ 006.06.2011 12:17:41 6 . 0 12 6 C . 2 0 1 1

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7 Fig. 1. Pine ring width chronologies in Caucasus (Baksan, Teberda and Kyzgich valleys). valleys). Kyzgich and Teberda (Baksan, Caucasus in chronologies width 1. ring Fig. Pine Gray fields – samples depth –samples fields Gray 006.06.2011 12:17:41 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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8 Fig. 3. Pine trees killed and damaged by the avalanche in 2001 sampled for the analyses analyses the for sampled 2001 in avalanche bythe damaged and killed trees Pine 3. Fig. Fig. 2. Maximum density pine chronology in Teberda valley Teberda in chronology pine density Maximum 2. Fig. of stable isotopes 006.06.2011 12:17:43 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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of aC3sucrose witha respectively. standard Aninternal consisting molar ratiosofthesampleandstandard, well aslocalchronologies and cross-date widthsamplesasThe individualring Severny Klukhor, Teberda). the nearest meteorological stations(Terskol, temperature andprecipitation measured at withthemonthlythese timeseries andstableisotopes) wedensity correlated different parameters (width, annualring order toIn explaintheclimaticforcing for ofanalysis. check theaccuracy ten samplesto analyzed every periodically 9 Fig. 4. Early (EW), late (LW) and total (RW) ring width measurements averaged for three samples used used samples three for averaged measurements width ring (RW) total (LW) and late (EW), Early 4. Fig. hoooyKZKT H A VBZTR MaxD TERS BAZ KV GAR CHS KHTP KYZ Chronology A 1.00 1.00 GAR CHS A 1.00 1.00 MaxD 1.00 TERS BAZ KV KHTP Y 1.00 KYZ Table 2. Correlation coeffi Correlation Table 2. δ 13 C =–25.08‰was .103 .302 .20.39 0.32 0.25 0.23 0.33 0.41 Marked values signifi for the stable isotope analyses isotope stable the for .404 .805 .30.23 0.63 0.53 0.58 0.42 0.64 cients of the 7 standard chronologies. chronologies. 7standard the of cients .605 .105 0.30 0.53 0.41 0.57 0.36 temperature andprecipitation. The coefficients chronologymaximum density withmonthly width ofthecomposite Elbruschronology and Table 3showsthecorrelation ofthepinering Ring width anddensity treein thetwo parameters. ring a sign ofdifferent climaticsignal embedded correlate withthemaximumdensity, whichis widthchronologies ofring Most donot composite chronology for theElbrusarea. ofthe correlation allowed theconstruction intercorrelate well 2). (Table very This RESULTS cant atp<0.05 cant .004 0.48 0.45 0.50 .70.55 0.57 0.53 .00.12 1.00 –0.03 –0.02 1.00 0.10 0.11 006.06.2011 12:17:45 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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Table 3. Correlation coeffi cients of the ring–width regional chronology (denominator) and tree–ring maximum density chronology (numerator) with mean monthly temperature and precipitation recorded at the Severnyi Klukhor, Teberda and Terskol meteorological stations. Marked values signifi cant at p < 0.05

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII год

Mean monthly temperatures Severny Kluhor 0,1/0,1 0,2/–0,1 0,3/0,1 0,4/0,0 0,3/–0,2 0,3/–0,1 0,4/0,2 0,7/–0,0 0,5/–0,1 –0,1/–0,1 0,4/0,0 0,1/–0,0 0,7/0,0 Teberda 0,0/0,1 0,2/–0,2 0,3/0,2 0,4/0,0 0,2/–0,2 0,3/–0,0 0,3/0,2 0,6/–0,0 0,4/–0,1 –0,1/–0,1 0,3/0,1 0,2/0,0 0,6/0,0 Terskol 0,1/0,1 0,2/–0,1 0,3/0,2 0,3/0,1 0,2/–0,2 0,2/–0,1 0,3/0,2 0,5/0,0 0,5/–0,1 –0,1/–0,1 0,4/0,1 0,2/0,0 0,6/0,0 Precipitation Severny Kluhor –0,1/0,1 0,2/0,1 0,1/0,0 0,1/0,2 0,0/0,1 0,0/0,3 –0,1/0,2 –0,2/–0,1 –0,1/–0,1 –0,1/0,1 –0,1/0,0 0,2/0,2 0,0/0,3 Teberda –0,1/0,1 0,1/–0,1 0,1/–0,0 0,1/0,2 0,2/0,2 –0,1/0,2 –0,2/0,3 –0,4/–0,2 –0,1/–0,1 –0,1/0,1 0,0/0,1 0,3/0,2 –0,1/0,2 Terskol –0,1/0,0 0,0/–0,0 0,1/–0,1 0,1/0,0 0,1/0,3 –0,1/0,2 –0,1/0,4 –0,4/–0,1 –0,1/–0,2 0,0/0,1 –0,1/0,0 0,3/0,3 –0,1/0,2 climate. Fig. goodagreement 6showsavery toset generallyshowsasimilar reaction June precipitation, i.e. oursmallerdata in thisregion positively correlates with July (Fig. 5). The composite pinechronology and apositive onewiththeprecipitation in correlation withtheprecipitation inApril with September temperature, anegative showed asignificant negative correlation Namelythey widthcurves. of thering into considerationthesimilarity taking climate changes. This result isnotsurprising three parameters responded to the similarly and total widthshowthatall wood ring of thesamplingsite withtheearly, late meteorological stationlocated inthevicinity temperature andprecipitation of Terskol The correlation of monthly mean quite well width(Fig. withthetotal ring 4). closelycorrelated.width are very They alsoagree andlate woodsamples showthattheearly ring andlate woodwidthofthesethree early ring regional dataset. The measurements ofthe samples represent adequately thewhole chronology. meansthatthethree selected It each otherandversus thecomposite Elbrus the isotope well analysescross-date against widthsofthreeThe total ring samples usedfor isotopes Stable 200 years Solomina,2010]. [Dolgova, to reconstructthisparameter for thelast we were and themaximumdensity able meteorological station the Severnyi Klukhor temperature valuesat the April–October this significant andsustainablecorrelation at different meteorological stations. Dueto temperaturesthe spring-summer measured with correlation ofthemaximumdensity 3 display asystematic positive significant The numbersabove thelinesintable (r =0.4,p<0.05)atthe Terskol station. 0.05) atthe Teberda metstationandinJuly station (r=0.3,p<0.05),inJuly meteorological June attheSevernyi Klukhor correlation canbeseenwithprecipitation in parameters except for thecases:positive show nostatisticalsignificance with climatic of correlation for width(belowthelines) thering 006.06.2011 12:17:46 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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between the between (Table 4).(Table density, widthchronologies andthelate ring summer temperature sensitive maximum withthepositively (althoughweakly) The mean (see also Table 4). last oneexcept for thesampleLAV 23) since1980s(thenegative trend observed andthelong-term variations frequency analyzed ofhigh samplesbothinterms 1 Fig. 5. Temperature (A) and precipitation (B) signals in the ring width of three pine samples for early, early, for samples pine three of width ring the in (B) signals precipitation (A)and 5.Temperature Fig. 1 δ 13 δ С LAV chronology correlates 13 С inthethreevariations late and total ring width of pine used for the isotope analyses isotope the for used pine of width ring total and late prominent signal detected for the plants athighelevationstands. The most stimulate more successfulgrowth ofwoody thegrowingextend seasonandtherefore these conditions. November mayThe warm for thepine growth important in to bevery chronologymaximum density andseems width oftheregional chronology andthe correlates significantly with thetotal ring temperature (Fig. 7). The sameparameter for the A significant positive correlation isfound δ 13 С chronology and November δ 13 006.06.2011 12:17:46 С 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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different seasonality. different climaticparameters andreflect significantly different: theyare forced by of thechronologies thatwe usedare our analysisshowsthatthethree types explained byacommonsignal. However temperature, Julyprecipitation) may be with thesameparameters (e.g. November (width, density, isotope composition) The correlation ofdifferent chronologies 1979](seeFig. [Turmanina, availability 5B). limited bymoistureCaucasus ispartly thatthepinegrowth inCentralknown iswellwith JuneandJulyprecipitation. It chronology isthenegative correlation Fig. 6. Variation in in Variation 6. Fig. Wsd0,08 LW std Wsd01 ,908 ,41,00 0,94 1,00 0,84 0,71 0,19 0,14 0,17 0,11 std RW std EW aD10 1,00 δ13С mean MaxD Table 4. Correlation of ring width, maximum density and δ13С chronologies. δ13С and density chronologies. maximum width, ring of Table Correlation 4. δ 13 С in three samples of pine (site LAV) in Baksan valley and their averaged values averaged their and valley Baksan in LAV) (site pine of samples three С in MaxD δ13С mean LW std EW std RW std RW std EW LW std δ13Сmean MaxD 0,35 Marked values signifi ,0 0,30 1,00 detection oftheclimaticsignaldetection inthe Here we concentrate onsomeexamplesofthe Schweingruber, D. 1988,Gagen, McCarroll, 2004]. dendrochronological literature [e.g. Fritts, 1976, wasdiscussedmany timesinspecial density The climaticsignal widthandmaximum inthering tree rings to detect the fluctuations in tree to thefluctuations detect rings chronologies have beenestablishedfrom isotope generalthestablecarbon In ofpineindifferent series ecological conditions. 1978; Leavitt and Long 1988,Carroll and for reconstructingpast climates [Stuiver ratios of atmospheric COratios ofatmospheric DISCUSSION cant atp<0.01 cant ,01,00 2 orasameans 13 13 C/ 006.06.2011 12:17:48 C/ 6 . 0 12 12 6 C C . 2 0 1 1

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of June-July likely induces stomatal closure inducesstomatal closure of June-July likely availability. Low precipitation theperiod during depends onmoisture stress andsoilwater isotope composition inpinetree clearly rings and Farquhar, ourcasethecarbon 2000].In temperature [Carrol andLoader, 2004;Brugnoli and and atmoistsites bysummerirradiance sites byrelative andsoilwater status humidity and photosynthetic rate, dominated atdry stomatalthe balancebetween conductance Loader, 1 Fig. 7. Response function and correlation coefficients between the the between coefficients correlation and function 7.Fig. Response 3 2004]. Stable carbon isotopes record2004]. Stablecarbon perature (A) and precipitation (B) at Terskol meteorological station meteorological Terskol (B) at precipitation (A)and perature to atmospheric COto atmospheric and adecrease intheratioofchloroplastic the Lewitt [1993]found amoisture stress signal in Caroll andPawelck, 2001],while Waterhouse etal. the Scotspine( Finland thesignal Northern in China.In Northern June precipitation for the et al. [1996]identifiedcorrelation withtheMay- causesanincreaseturn, in δ 13 С pine( δ P. silvestris Pinus edulis 13 С chronology and monthly tem- monthly and С chronology 2 concentrations which, in concentrationswhich,in ) was very site specific [Mc site specific[Mc ) wasvery ) in North America. Liu Liu America. ) inNorth Pinus tabilaeformis δ 13 C. in in 006.06.2011 12:17:49 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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1 4 6. Gagen, M.,McCarroll, D. Gagen, (2004).Latewood Width, Density, Maximum andStableCarbon 6. Feng X.andEpstein S.(1995).Climatictrends from isotopic records oftree rings: The 5. E.,SolominaO. Dolgova (2010). tem- The first quantitativeperiod reconstructionofwarm 4. ofdendrochronology. L.A.(1990).Methods Cook E.R.,Kairiukstis Applicationsinthe 3. analysisapproach Cook E.R.(1985).Atimeseries to tree standardization ring //Ph. D. 2. Brugnoli, E.,Farquhar, G.D. isotopes. Pho- (2000).Photosynthetic ofcarbon In: fractionation 1. δ [2004] found acorrelation of3-year smoothed Different can parameters ofthepinerings promising climaticproxy.Caucasus isavery elevation pinevegetation intheCentral Our research demonstrated thatthehigh Central and Western Caucasus. climatic andenvironmental conditions to the 2004] –aregion whichisquite similar by its forreported theFrench McCarroll, Alps[Gagen, and thesummerprecipitation waspreviously decrease dueto theeffect of COthe atmospheric changesarewhile thelongterm coherent with correlates America withtheprecipitation in North δ thedependenceof studies reporting Our findingsgenerallyagree withthose fuel combustion. correlation between period. warm The closestresults, i.e. thenegative the drought stress andprecipitation ofthe frequency frequency and Epstein [1995]discovered thatthehigh of Obriverreflectingthemoisture stress. Feng REFERENCES 13 13 С pine( С fluctuations in pine annual rings upon upon inpineannualrings С fluctuations Arctic, Antarctic, andAlpine Research, Vol. 36,No. 2,pp. 166–171. SubalpineEnvironment, ofPineIsotope French Ratios inaDry asClimate Indicators Alps BF00141704. past 100–200years. ClimaticChange. Volume 33,Number4,551–562,DOI:10.1007/ 431, №2,p. 1–5.(inRussian). ofAcademy ofSciecnes.perature data.Doklady inCaucasusaccording to thetree-ring Enviromental Sciences. Dordrecht; Boston, London, Acad. Kluwer Publ. ofArizona, University dissertation. Tucson, AZ.171. andS.von Caemmerer,Sharkey Academic Kluwer Publishers, theNetherlands, pp. 399–434. tosynthesis Physiology Advances andMetabolism, inPhotosynthesis, edsR.C.Leegood, T.D. δ P. silvestris 13 С variability in pine, juniper and oak inpine, juniperandoak С variability ) chronology with the flow ) chronology with theflow 2

δ 13 13 C composition and its C compositionandits С of pine chronology С ofpinechronology 13 C dilution by fossil C dilutionbyfossil variations of variations intheinterannualThe similarity 3. and reconstructionofthisparameter. is highenoughto beusedfor the modeling temperature (April–October). The correlation periodnamely itreflectsthewarm proved Themaximum density to be more related clearly to climaticparameters, 2. except for themonthofNovember isfound. No correlation withtemperature parameters positively withtheJune-July precipitation. widthofpineattheupper Thering tree limitintheBaksanvalleycorrelates 1. reflects themoisture stress. thermal conditionswhilethe thermal correlates period withthewarm density themaximum climaticvariables: of various be usedaspredictors for thereconstruction and Julyprecipitation. signal canbelargely interpreted astheJune display acoherent commonsignal. This the individualsamplesmeansthatthey CONCLUSIONS δ 13 C in annual rings between between C inannualrings δ 13 С largely 006.06.2011 12:17:50 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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21. Tur 20. Thomas, R.J. (1991). Wood: formation andmorphology. Lewin, M.andGoldstein, In I.S., 19. Stuiver, changes. Science dioxidereservoir carbon and M.(1978).Atmospheric M.A.,Smiley Stokes 18. T.L. dating. (1968).Anintroductionto tree-ring Tucson, The University 17. EurasiainHolocene. Moscow,Solomina, O.N. glaciationofNorthern (1999).Mountain 16. Shahgedanova,M.(2002). The Physical Eurasia,Oxford geography University ofNorthern Schweingruber15. F.H. (1988). Tree basicsandapplicationsofdendrochronology. rings: Dor- 14. McNulty, S.G.,andSwank. W. T. (1995). Wood (delta)^(13)CasaMeasure ofAnnual McCarroll, D. Pettigrew,13. Provides A.(2002).BlueReflectance E.andLuckman a Surrogatefor 12. McCarroll, D., Pawellek, F. isotope ratiosofPinus (2001).Stablecarbon sylvestrisfrom D.,McCarroll Loader11. N.J. ScienceReviews, (2004).Stableisotopes intree rings. Quaternary Leavitt, S.,andLong, isotope chronologies A.(1988).Stablecarbon from10. trees inthesouth- Liu, Y., Wu, X.,Leavitt, S.W., isotope intree (1996). Stablecarbon from rings Hughes, M.K. 9. Leavitt, S.W. (1993).Environmental information from 13C/12Cratiosofwood. Geophysical 8. Leavitt, S.,andLong, isotope chronologies A.(1988).Stablecarbon from trees inthesouth- 7. 22. Waterhouse, J.S., Barker,22. A.C.,Carter, A.H.C.,Agafonov, L.I.,Loader, N.J. (2000). Stablecarbon 1 5 editors, Wood structure andcomposition,New Inc. York: Marcel Dekker 199, 253–258. of Arizona Press. Nauchny Mir. 264pp. (inRussian). Press. 571. drecht, Holland, RPC. [doi:10.2307/1938159] Basal Area Growth andSoil Water Stress in a Pinus Strobus Forest. Ecology76:1581–1586. Vol. 34,No. 4,pp. 450–453. Pine ofHigh-latitude Latewood Density Tree Arctic, Rings Antarctic, andAlpineResearch, dian chronologies. The Holocene11,517–526. Finland aclimate andthepotentialnorthern signal for from extracting longFennoscan- 23, 771–801 western United States. GlobalBiochemicalCycles 2(3),189–198. Huangling, ScienceinChinaD(39)2,152–161. Chinaandclimaticvariation. Monographs 78,325–331. western United States. GlobalBiochemicalCycles 2(3),189–198. Research Letters 27,3529–3532. arecordisotopes inScotspinetree preserve rings oftheflowriverOb. Geophysical valleys. Rhythms ofGlacialProcesses. Mosc. Gos. Univ., Moscow, pp. 128–134.(inRussian). manina V.I. (1979).Dendrochronology ofavalanches intheupperstream ofBaksanvalley 006.06.2011 12:17:50 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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1 6 mass spectrometry, gaschromatography andGC-IRMS. year ininstableisotopehe hasmore experience thantwenty Forest Biology(IBAF).Heisemployed atIBAFsince1990and ofAgro-environmental oftheInstitute and isotope laboratory Luciano Spaccino Caucasus. analyses. Focusestree-ring inthe width density onthering in ofGeography oftheInstitute RAS,expert Department Ekateruna Dolgova Geography RAS,Corresponding ofRAS. Member of Director150 scientificpublications.ofInstitute Deputy mountains, theArcticandAntarctic, authorofmore than based reconstructions inthehigh andtree-ring variations Dr. OlgaSolomina papers inrefereed andseveral Journal bookchapters. physiological ecologyandhe haspublishedmore thathundred inplant since2008hehasalongexperience IBAF Institute Agro-environmental andForest Biology(IBAF).Director of of oftheInstitute Ecology andStableIsotope laboratory Dr. Enrico Brugnoli – laboratory technical managerofthestable –laboratory – research leaderofthePlant Physiological – expert inpaleoclimatology, –expert glacier – research scientistattheGlaciological 006.06.2011 12:17:50 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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the occasionofwater level andcoastal rise provide favorable conditionsfor on marining direction ascompared with coastalberms, coast whichhave negative andreverse slightslopeoflandsbehind fact, periods. In ofseawater levelanddown function rise involved dueto the vulnerability inacritical oftheseregionscharacteristics become that theecological andmorphodynamic high.So of anthropogenic activities, isvery changing ofoceansandseasimpacts affected byclimaticprocess, water level ofcoastallowlands, which The susceptibility Miankaleh deformation degree declinesgradually. changing. thedirectionofwest, shoreline In withCaspianrapidsealevelinteraction Ashooradeh peninsulawhere there isan near regionend ofeastern ofMiankaleh shoreline displacementincrease atthe and offloodingvulnerability tendency mentioned area. results Main showthe ofwesternfrom to of eastern extremity have beendonealongtheeighttransects geology andsurface works observational (1966–2005). Sea level fluctuation Then related ofexpandedCaspian to 2periods andprocessing photoscomparing ofaerial shoreline positionhave beenrecognized by impact. The morphological subunitsand rapid sealevel changing andanthropogenic shoreline displacement againstCaspian ofthisstudyisMiankaleh The mainobjective Km of Khazarabad Road, Sari, Mazandaran, Iran; e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: Road, Iran; Sari,Mazandaran, ofKhazarabad Km Head ofCaspian NationalResearch Sea &StudyCenter, Water Research Institute, 8 Homayoun Khoshravan INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION KEY WORDS: ABSTRACT 1 CASPIAN CATASTROPHIC FLUCTUATION RESPONSEMIANKALEH TERRITORIES TO 7 Caspian; beach; fluctuation; beach; fluctuation; Caspian; Torkaman in40recent andGomishan ports ontheregion betweencoastal parts transpositions ofCaspianSea south-eastern 2000]. With theshoreline thecomparing [Khoshravan, Caspian Seawater fluctuations is dependedonhydrodynamic forces and Hence current morphological appearance 1995]. [Khoshravan, geological history changing throughout theQuaternary environmental forces ofCaspian Sea level beenimpressedSea haspermanently by this coastalsignificant area ofCaspian proveThe results that ofseveral surveys plant andconstruction). oilandgas, power tourism, (fishery, port, expansion economicalefforts furthermore changing andhydrodynamic forces from it, slope sandyshore, Caspianrapid sealevel have increased becauseofLow and reverse erosive conditionsofthisarea vulnerability lowland area. Environmental and Miankaleh deformation onmorphodynamic in factors assessment ofnaturalandanthropogenic The mainquestionofthisstudyistheimpact wetland willexpand. ofMiankaleh territory littoral zones couldbesubmerged then of the caseofwater level rise, vastparts is establishedviamarginal canals. Usuallyin ofthisbasinandCaspianSea The connection wetlands haspresented asaprotective area. of unionforinternational conservation that according by to thedefinedcriteria sohas suchenvironmental importance wetland strongly considerable. Miankaleh is objectives significance for conservation intheseareas,biodiversity habitat valueand marginal wetlands appear. viewof In aquifers piezometric level rise. Consequently, 006.06.2011 12:17:51 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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1 8 Ashoradeh peninsula, in theendofeastern ofthisregion. Also inthe western parts port) (Amirabad CaspianSeaports important about 2kilometers. There isoneofthemost andthewidthis is about70kilometers with theCaspianSeashoreline. The length in thedirectionofwestern, along eastern Sea. This area isexpandedasasandyspit Gorgandirection between bay andCaspian (Fig. issituatedport inthewidthwise 1).It peninsula where isadjacentto theAmirabad between Torkaman andAshoradeh port the lengthwise directionaround acanal coastsofCaspianSeain of thesouthern is located regions onthesouth–eastern The slightslopeandlowland, Miankaleh processing andfieldobservations. photos advantagesofaerial agents bytaking reaction encounter withthementioned goal, we have simulated thestructural peninsula. Miankaleh To achieve thismain level in changing andhumanactivities deformation whicheffected byrapidsea to assessmentofshoreline morphodynamic 2004]. [Moghadam, Therefore, thisstudyaims wetland around Gorgan bay and Miankaleh increasing environmental rate vulnerability andpesticides,fertilizers isthemaincauseof toxicant concentrationsgenerated from leading industries, solidwaste disposal, from andvillagecommunities city water effluents commercial inports, efforts Recent accumulationoftradingand 1995]. ofthisareasusceptibility [Kosari, precious habitatvalueandexcessive bio addition to thebenthicandfishes, show bird ofmentionedwetland biodiversity in aboutnative andimmigrant 1995]. Survey recent several thousandyears [Kosari, in directionofwest to theeastthroughout area evolved from flowsparallelwithcoast Furthermore, itisproven thatthewidesandy 2002]. [Khoshravan, periods fluctuating Sea slightslopecoastsalongwithrapid and morphological deformation ofCaspian years, we canfindoutthereplacement rate AND METHODS STUDIED AREA, MATERIALS to 1). east(Table inthedirectionofwestsub-environments morphological subunitsandsedimentary possessseveral territory that Miankaleh (Fig.measurements transects 1)specify around conducting eightfield works photos processingThe aerial and Miankaleh morphological subunits rapid sealevel fluctuations. identify vulnerableregions towards Caspian down conditions. that,we After achieved to which containsbothwater level and rise times (1965–2005)inascaleof1 : 10 000 photos belongedto a40yearsof period ofaerial andcomparing by Interpreting submergence of coastallandswere verified map. The transpositionsofshoreline and (GIS) andputtingdownthemondigitized data to thegeological information system around peninsulawasassigned bytransferring Shorelines position direction ofMiankaleh. wheretransects itwaschoseninlengthwise around conducted by fieldworks eight Gorgan bay andCaspianSeawasmeasured to shoreline between direction ofvertical subunitsoftheareaMorphological inthe 1965till2005. thetimebetween during assessed withapplyingofsatellite images phenomena conditionsofthisarea were features andwidespread morphodynamic required collecting After data,morphologic the aquaticorganism. of concentrating locationfor themajority whereenvironment is andmiddlepart wetland includesedimentary Miankaleh lots ofmussels. of Also, parts theeastern ofpeninsulathatcontains in centralparts sediments. ofsedimentsisseen This kind of themicrolithic andadhesive wetland which appearintheintercalation shape area iscovered sandysediments bymaritime canal.Khozeini The vastregions ofMiankaleh via marginal canalssuchasAshoradeh and of theGorgan bay andCaspianSeaisfeasible sturgeons fishing. The aqueousconnection isconsidered asamaincenterparts, for the RESULTS 006.06.2011 12:17:51 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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different dislocation of Miankaleh peninsula different dislocationofMiankaleh anddownphenomena,showlevel rise 2005) whichcontainedCaspianSeawater coastal regions oftimes(1965– inaperiod photos ofMiankaleh theaerial comparing The consequencesofprocessing and Shorelines transposition 1 9 Fig. 1. Studied area location map spit expansionhappenmore inthecaseof bays, canals, connecting wetlands andsandy featuresmorphodynamic suchas:erosive regions. ofcoastal Besidestheextension hasdiverserise features inthedifferent submergence inthesituationofwater level (Fig.parts 2). The scopeofthecoastallands shorelines inwestern, centralandeastern 006.06.2011 12:17:51 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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2 0 construction (Fig.construction 3).So thatshoreline has ports like by anthropogenic activities phenomena enlargement produced theerosive confirms ofMiankaleh, parts structuresinwesternmorphodynamic andThe evaluationofgeometric deformation oncoastalAnthropogenic impacts structure andsandydunes.in berms growth ofvegetable coverage isseenmore thetimeofSeatransgressionIn period, the sea water level to seawater rise level down. inae einSdmnays-niomnsMorphodynamicPhenomena sb-environments Sedimentary Region Miankaleh Table 1. Sedimentary environments and morphological subunits of Miankaleh territory Miankaleh of subunits morphological and environments Table 1. Sedimentary etr atAeolian environments, Western Part atr at Marginal lagoon,Primitive Sandy PartEastern eta at Shoreline, Wetland, Central Part Fig. 2. Shoreline displacement along the eastern part of Miankaleh of part eastern the along displacement Shoreline 2. Fig. Sand Dunes, marginal canals, Wetland BandBeam, beach ,Gorgan Bay Primitive Berms, Wetland Fringe, Wetland Fringe, Gorgan Bay Gorgan Bay Shoreline, morphologic features of Miankaleh peninsula morphologic features ofMiankaleh and satellite imagesanalysisindicated that The conclusionsfrom fieldobservations Miankaleh territory morphology condition west directionto theeast. radiusfrom the locationsof20kilometer eradication. berms This event hasinfluenced involves sandyduneswhichcausedcoastal andthegrowing trend oferosion Miankaleh been retreated of to 900meters inthispart DISCUSSION Primitive beachandFluctuation Scattered SandDunes, Erosive terraces, Strip PoolStrip Pits, Ripple marks, Ripple Beach cusps, Beach cusps, Sand Dunes, Sand Spits Pool Pits, terraces Lagoon 006.06.2011 12:17:52 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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In the next area, andsemiactive active the next In which have vegetative extensive coverage. berms, we to sandydunes theinactive arrive thewideareaAfter CaspianSea ofprimitive isabout10centimeters. soil whosethickness sediments dressed brown indark colored pomegranate (Fig. 4). ofsandy The surface bushesandsour by prairie, raspberry iscovered territory ofMiankaleh This part edule mussels( sediments andmarine of –24that coast ofCaspianSeawithanaltitudecode thatweAfter reach sandy theprimitive shell ofmollusks(bivalve andgastropod). Xanthium shrubsandfilledwithcalcareous with thedominantvegetable coverage of ofGorgan bay orderly contains:lowlandpart from Gorgan bay to theCaspianSeashoreline coastal sandysediments. The coastalprofile isformed oftheCaspianprimitive district of Tazehabad inMiankaleh coastadjacency to thecentralpoint ofAmirabadpart eastern have specificqualitiesaswell asattheend 2 1 ). embraced microlithic sandy Fig. 3. Anthropogenic impact on West of part Miankaleh Cardium coast paralleledflowsinwest to direction from shoreline, sandspitsare formed by coast.Faraway ofMiankaleh in centralparts deformcoastal berms to marginal wetlands substances, reduction ofsandysedimentary the vegetative coverage enlargement. Dueto isstrongly related toof sandydunesterritory dunes formation. The widthwise expanding isthecauseofsandy out ofseasurface, Coming alarge amountofsandysediments –24 mto present –26.5m. in thepastwhosealtitudecodeischangedof of CaspianSeawater level excessive rise phases showsthefunction ofMiankaleh western parts the morphological feature assessmentof fact, In ofMiankaleh. whole ofwestern parts ofbiomorphological state existsin This kind plants. coverage ofhalophytes suchas alongCaspianSeashorelineberm withthe which hasreversed slopetowards coastal coastal profile leadsto aslightslopedbeam sandy dunescouldbeseen.Ultimately, the Xantium 006.06.2011 12:17:55 6

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2 2 primitive coast.Ontheotherhand, marginal dispersion ofsandydunesinCaspianSea area have beencausedthedecrease and ofcoastallandsinthis the permeability accumulation ofvegetative coverage and with theaverage depthof1.5meters. The spits, wetlands strip have beencreated the east(Fig. 5).Atthebackofthesesand Fig. 5. Sand spit generation in the central part of Miankaleh Fig. 4. Morphological subunits of Miankaleh territory Consequently, Khozeiny canalandaquatic level hasincreased 2.5meters upto now. has sunksince1978whenCaspianSeawater ofthisarea been sofragile thatavastpart coasthas ofMiankaleh situation ofthispart sands have beendisappeared. Submergence whilecoastal slightslopedparts, eastern basins suchaswetland appearstrongly in 006.06.2011 12:17:58 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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rise andsoilsalinization,thementionedrise owing to thewater however; levelthe berm, pomegranate shrubsare expanded through bushlandsandsour regression, raspberry thecaseofsealevel In in western parts. now. consequence, isseenfewer marining In shoreline hasmoved only60meters upto inasmuchthe compare ofwestern parts in rate ismore parts expandedineastern Shoreline deformation morphodynamic widthwise have beendeveloped. canals(Khozeiny) andwetlandsconnecting features have as beenchangedseriously andgenerallymorphological of marining slight slopeofthisregion helpsspeedrate Ashooradeh inthementionedtimes. The regionseastern between Torkaman and port mostlyexistscloseto thevulnerability coastindicates thaterosive rate inMiankaleh deformationexamination ofmorphodynamic about 2.5meters from 1979to present. The Caspian Seawater level hasgotarapidrise water level from 1940to 1979,whereas; show about3meters depression insea datafromThe collected limnograph stations related to CaspianrapidSealevel changing. district deformation mannerofMiankaleh water anddownphases, level rise prove CaspianSea important which includetwo processing 40years during (1965–2005) results photosThe comparing ofaerial analysis results Comparing ofthe aerial photos sea level changing impact. peninsula isthemostvitalregion to rapid increasing from west to east.SoAshoradeh west is to east.Andthefloodvulnerability transition zone andlagoon,indirectionof morphological subunits, includingbeach, time. containsthreeTherefore Miankaleh landsataridity appear inthementionedsalty in lowlandaround Gorgan bay. crystals Salty landgeneration isthecauseofsalty brine The penetrationofsea ofMiankaleh. part creation oferosive bays insouth–eastern featuresmorphodynamic ofthisarea isthe Caspian Seahasbeendeveloped. Oneofthe Gorgan widthbetween bayconnection and 2 3 coastal landsubmergence. and quay, conditionof provide artificial generated bycoastal break water obstacles because ofgentleslopeinlittoral zone which expansion.Finally; of anthropogenic activity is vulnerableanddangerous inviewpoint Therefore; thewestern coastofMiankaleh incentralregionsmeters exactly (Fig. 3). the movement ofshoreline about900 iscaused constructions ofmarine impact the Actually going farfrom centralpart. oncoastisreduced by of constructions and sandydunes. Dramaticallytheeffect beach cuspsanddisappearanceofberm of vasterosive terraces, developed crescent asappearance arehuman activities, known features, whichhave beenobtainedfrom central parts. The main morphodynamic causes coastaldisruptionanderosion of To thewest, the affection ofcoastalflows power plant. accumulation inwest ofNeka deviations. strike There issedimentary deformationradically berm andshoreline and coastalbreak water obstaclesinduce indicate thatquay western coastofMiankaleh measurements structurein ofgeometrical with nohumanaccessanddamages. The isunderprotection rest area ofMiankaleh The ofMiankaleh. in compare parts ofeastern has beenseenmore inAmirabadfree zone addition;erosion phenomena activities. In are affected morepart) byanthropogenic and Ashooradeh peninsula(intheeastern (intheendwestern part) Amirabad port Actually Amirabadport. multipurpose closeto the ofMiankaleh western parts increasetakings, erosive inVulnerability andsand constructions, landsurfacing break water obstacles, coastalguard Port constructions,groins building, coastal vulnerability Anthropogenic onerosive impacts have risk. lesservulnerability regions peninsula.Other ofMiankaleh part seems from to theendofeastern central towardsVulnerability seawater level rise Meanwhile; itisproven thatthemost the bodiescanbefound undersediments. vegetative coverage are destroyed and 006.06.2011 12:18:01 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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2 4 along the eight transects from extremity fromalong theeighttransects extremity geologyhave beendone andsurface works observational The fluctuation(1966–2005). ofexpandedCaspianSealevelperiods processing photos related ofaerial to 2 have beenrecognized and bycomparing accumulative form position ofMiankaleh The morphological subunitsandshoreline Moghadam, M.(2004).contaminationresources Moghadam, managementbyuseGIS,Bandarabbas (1995).CaspianSeaeast- coastsshoreline southern displacementstudy, K. Kosari, Geology sandspitevolution reconstructing, Nationalresearch H.(2002).Miankaleh Khoshravan, zone coastsofCaspianSea,National H.(2000).Morphological ofthesouthern Khoshravan, sedimentsbiostratigraphy and H.(1995).CaspianseaQuaternary Khoshravan, CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES Assessment withGISModeling. Coasts contaminationresources;Sea Southern andHazardousVulnerability Degree Azad University,Azad Academic thesis, 187p. 56p. report, internal ofIran, survey 114p.center report, oftheCaspianSea,internal research 156p. center report, oftheCaspianSea,internal paleogeography, EsfahanUniversity, Academic thesis, 357p. Homayoun Khoshravan instability hazard assessmentwithuseGIS; instability The Caspian Caspian rapidsealevel changing; CaspianSeaGeotechnical onthe publications –Coastal modificationimpacts Main stratigraphy,morphodynamic andmarinegeology. Research WRI. The focus ofhisresearch liesinthe a research assistant(Professor) of oftheInstitute Water obtained thePhD degree (Diploma).Since March 1993heis and Sciencecampusof Tehran, graduated in1999and UniversityTtechnologyHe studiedGeologyscienceattheAzad

gradually. west, shoreline deformation degree declines rapid sealevel changing. thedirection of In where there withCaspian isaninteraction nearAshooradeh peninsula Miankaleh increase region attheendofeastern of andshorelinevulnerability displacement offlooding resultsMain showthetendency of western to ofmentionedarea. eastern was born in Esfahan, Iran, in1967. inEsfahan,Iran, was born environment,

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empirical modes.empirical forNetwork combinationsofdifferent Neural were madewiththehelpofArtificial the timeseries. Globalnonlinearpredictions EMD methodwasusedto reduce noiseof approximation.with thehelpoffractal The dataresolutionThen, historical wasimproved were spectra calculated.and multifractal oftheCaspianSealevel timeintervals various analyseswere outforand multifractal carried were estimated from reconstruction.Fractal Yorke dimension,andthepredictionhorizon such astheLyapunov exponents, theKaplan- invariants,embedology methods. Dynamical of theamodelcanbereconstructed bythe the CaspianSealevel. Phase spacegeometry using nonlinearmodelingfor predictionof of This paperdemonstrates thepossibility Caspian Seaisrepresented byalternations oftheOn geological scale, thehistory oftime. over longinterval anextremely exhibits auniqueglobalevolution withoutwater outflowwhichreservoir The CaspianSeaisthelargest intercontinental Nonlinear prediction Embedology, Decomposition, Mode Empirical Approximation, Analysis, Multifractal 3 2 Nikolai G.Makarenko [email protected] [email protected], Kazakhstan, Corresponding author ofMathematics,Institute str. Pushkin [email protected], 200010,Almaty, Kazakhstan 1* KEY WORDS: ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION 2 EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK CASPIAN USING SEA LEVEL PREDICTION Senior scientist, Institute ofMathematics, scientist,Institute str. Pushkin Senior 200010,Almaty, Kazakhstan, Principal ofMathematics, scientist,Institute str. Pushkin 200010,Almaty, 5 Leading scientist,Pulkovo Astronomical Saint-Petersburg, Observatory, Russia;

Caspian Sealevel, Fractal

1* , Lyailya M.Karimova from observed time series bymeansof timeseries from observed based onreconstructionofphase dynamics to theCSL. predict This approach was this paper, we appliednonlinearmodeling 2008]. &Shveikina, Kozhevnikova Thus, in etal., 2004;of theCSL[Makarenko achaoticdynamicsapplied to describe situation. Onlynonlinearmodelsmay be models may the notadequately describe the firstsight.However, simplebalance outflows may on appearstraightforward withoutdynamics ofaclosedreservoir the seafluctuations.Modeling on modern the regions neartheCaspianSeadepended for economicdev strong windsresulted inmultipleproblems square kilometers. sealevelThe rising and of theCaspianSeahasincreased by 40000 CSL hasreached –26,6meters andthearea years. thebeginning of1996year, By the the CSLhasbeingraisingfor already 18 coincide intime[Golitsyn,1995].Upto date, didnotnecessarily and thatthesefactors but alsobytectonic changesoftheseabed, was influencednotonlybywater balance, ispossiblethattheCSL climate changes. It the CaspianSeaLevel (CSL)were caused by Holocene, for of example, thefluctuations period. monitoring In and arelatively short instrumental measurements recent during records, historical in scanty and shownby bypaleodata,reflectedreflected clearly of transgressive andregressive phases 2 , OlgaA.Kruglun elopment. Economicsof 3 006.06.2011 12:18:01 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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26 GEOGRAPHY

2 6 1991, Makarenko, 2003]: 1991, Makarenko, obtain thefollowing predictor [Saueretal., exponents: neighbors of20,we obtainedLyapunov m Applying theembeddingdimensionwith , where [Schaw, 1981]according to positive valueoftheLyapunov exponent bythemaximumhorizon isdetermined forecast.theprediction fact, short-term In of sealevel. Thus, onecanhope onlyfor a contain information aboutglobalvariations measured onlysince1830andtheydonot dynamics. However, theCSLdatahave being elementsof and containsallcharacteristic istypical variable assume thatanobserved sea level prediction. Embedology methods used itto create thenonlinearschemeof [Saueretal., 1991]. is widelyknown We space. This technique, calledembedology, inann-dimensional copy ofitsattractor we canreconstructthediffeomorphic dynamicmodelofsealevel an unknown of general assumptionsaboutproperties etal., 2004].According[Makarenko, to level canbebasedonchaoticdynamics and predictionofdynamicregimes ofsea The nonlinearapproach for modeling approximation.by fractal (ANN). wereThe CSLtimeseries constructed NeuralNetwork with thehelpofArtificial nonlinear globalforecast hasbeenmade topological embeddingmethods. A our case, thelengthis that iscloseto theembeddingdimension.In series. The Kaplan-Yorke dimensionis2.18876 into Euclidianspace ofthecopyattractor The reconstruction etal., 2004]. [Makarenko, prediction horizon is PREDICTION EMBEDOLOGY AND NONLINEAR l 3 − =3, =–0.838176for the instrumental time = F ( y ( k N τ ), =2,andanumberofnearest is time series length, istimeseries y ( l 1 k + – =0.302797, y τ (( ), k + y ( k R l –2 ) m Δ Т gives to possibility

t N ) = τ ≈ =1955andthe ), ..., 12–36months T l

2 . − y =–0.14458, log ( k k – =[1 2 m N / τ k )). l ÷ max + 3]. a setofinputpairs follows. problem The interpolation dealswith approximation The mainideasoffractal isas the CSLanddoesnottraceitsglobalevolution. of timevariations measurements reflectshort becauseitsaccurate instrumental important, datainthepredictiontaskof historical is very resolution (apointperten years). The usage andhaveare lowtime- poorinaccuracy latter datathat couldenhancethehistorical etal. 2004]. et al., 2003;Makarenko The approximation [Barnsly, 2000;Karimova data from 600BC,we appliedfractal obtain anonlinearpredictionfor historical order and toIn useanonlinearcontext mentioned above. CSL datawasestimated at12–36months, as prediction horizon ofinstrumentalmonthly of closereconstructed trajectories. The lengthandrate ofdivergencethe timeseries method. horizonThe prediction islimited by with thehelpofFalse Nearest Neighbors embedding dimension vector prediction. The lower estimate ofthe points simultaneously, a i.e. canconstruct a lagof thecasewhen values oftheCSLdata.In outusingasetfrom availablewas carried & Girosi, 1989;Bishop, 2006].ANNtraining approximation isfound byANN[Poggio vectors ofthereconstruction. Their best of is nonlinearandcontinuousfunction vectors We used denote thesetofpointsinitsgraph. Hence by itsgraph, andusethesamesymbolto that afunction notsmooth,butfractal. typically We note function interpolation provided analternative assumptionthatthe degree polynomial. Recentresearch has withalow- or bypiecewiseinterpolations interpolated byasingle-degree case ofsmoothdata,theinputpointsare function = 0 = HISTORICAL DATA FRACTAL APPROXIMATION OF THE CSL F ( x x i 0 ) < ∈ y.

m τ x R F

1 Unknown function function Unknown ordinates withsomecontinuous =27and <... ≠ :[0, 1] 1,onecanobtain F :[0, 1] x → N =1are nodesand τ

{}

= 37 to construct delay =37to construct () R xy . As arule, inthe → m F ii , is self-similar, and >8wasobtained

R iswell defined i N = N 0

τ polynomial, where the F predicted -predictor 006.06.2011 12:18:01 6 y . 0 i = 6 m . 2 0 1 1

1 2 : 1 8 : 0 1 ggi410.indd 27 i 4 1 0 . i n d d

the notation a point( and controlling theroughness ofthefunction, the scalinglaw, i.e. according to depends oncorrelation interval when themeansquare ofprocess augments And itisthebesttool for dataapproximation process. oftheconcerned characteristics are insufficientfor ofstatistical determination whenavailable uncertainty, measurements prior Fractal approximation canbeusedinthecaseof C contractility B Given ametric or the “reflected” constraints where is calleda of afunction [Barnsly, isthegraph 2000]whoseattractor an construct + the constraints of technique. The approximated datawere approximationand we appliedfractal satisfythelatter condition such timeseries thecaseofCSL,ithasbeenshownthat In Hurst exponent. γ satisfying theinvariance there existsoneandonlyfunction ( let [Cochran, W.O. etal. 1998].For 2 x 7 istheLevy indexandinverse valueto the =max =max ,

T y F T () i ) 1 over the interval [ over theinterval (0, i :[0, 1] a 2 ∈ − i B , b

x (t ) xbcx at ta and R N – s 2 i ) =(

=max{(1+ ∈ ] if( Iterated Function System F – 1 → F ∝+ [

:[0, 1] x d x , F [0,1] 1 e 2 (( x ifandonlyif. We alsouse t x , |, where E i i i

t –1 , , x [( are eitherby determined 1 x y ii , x 2 i ) ), ), ] to denote thegraph ( x t ∈ → 1 + T T × ), ( x 0 i i

(1, x (0,

F 1 F

R τ fixed point , = and R t ) – hastheform x 2 A . Such a function . Suchafunction x , 2 A N U N )/2, ]. Henceapoint x =max x ) =( ) i 2 T ( = )) =| t x i )) (

i F C =1,2,...., ⎣⎦ ⎢⎥ ⎡⎤ ∈ 2 (t t ] ). d e i [ i –1 }, 1,where , x ≈ i i x

t theorem, τ i 1 1 ). , x i , – , γ | a , where , where x i –1 i (IFS) ) 2 | and T ]. We t i (FIF) has 2 ), | + | + N F ,

in a f then theHölderexponentof equal to δ Here version however, oneconsidersa the “right” applications, Hölderexponent.In the numberofwhichincreases roughly with over by countingtheboxes (orintervals) than itsbox dimension,onecanestimate it E Scheuring, 1997]is & [Riedi spectrum multifractal (Hausdorff) Let sup{ real number, at apoint smoothnessofthegraph ofafunction certain a positive real number etal., 2007]is Pointwise [Karimova regularity change abruptlyfrom onepointto thenext. possesses somevalue. Function may regularity witha function “size” ofsetswhere regularity ofthe regularity pointwise analysis connects aswelldeterministic asrandom.Multifractal in thestudyofbothmeasures functions, 2007] etal., &Scheuring, 1997;Karimova Riedi formalism [Halseyetal.,Multifractal 1968; original timeseries historical annual CSLwasobtaineddirectlyfrom the 2601 records inlength. ofthe The timeseries procedure wastheannualCSLtimeseries, approximationThe outputofthefractal from 600BCto 2000AD(261records). measured decennialCSLtimeseries historical dim if there exists of theorder smallerthan MULTIFRACTAL CHARACTERISTICS G α withthecoarseHölderexponent roughly ( . Becausedim α | ) = H x δ h E E – N -cube, thena=log -cube, α : α FisC has proved to be a very useful technique usefultechnique has proved to beavery ={

δ is the Hausdorff dimensionoftheset istheHausdorff

f x limlim denotes thenumberofcubessize → δ→∞ ε→∞ G 0 α whichis: | h x . Let ≤ ( . In general, let . In x x

0 δ C )}. 0 ∈ , |

>0, ∈ sup μ F

( H ( R R N x ofthesetisnever greater , a function , afunction : ) – α

δ δ o , log ) beameasure contained ( >0andapolynomial x o 1/ log P f ) = H ( α N ( x α ( – () h δ x μ ) =dim () so that if sothatif ), which describes a a ), whichdescribes h ( α αε x

N δ be a nonnegative be anonnegative 0 }, thenthefine F )| δ . )/log ( F course grained x ≤ ): at

. R C

→ | H x δ x E 0 – . isa( α

R , where is x 0 | C h x , h 0 P ( ) = x ( x 006.06.2011 12:18:02 F 0 6 ) ) , . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

1 27 GEOGRAPHY 2 : 1 8 : 0 2 ggi410.indd 28 i 4 1 0 . i n d d

28 GEOGRAPHY

2 8 f We computed thelarge deviationspectrum “envelopes” between asinterpolated curves in EMDistheestimationofupper andlower signal. Abasicoperation oscillations inobserved corresponding to various as asetoffunctions 1998; Flandrin etal., 2003]represents thesignal modes[Huangetal., by meansofempirical Thus, themethodofdecompositionasignal globalstructureofthesignal (Fig.breaking 2). excluding details, high-frequency without approximation ofasignal, a coarse-grained According to thismethod, itispossibleto use modes. bythesumofsmoothempirical series [Huang etal., 1998]andapproximate time (EMD)decomposition Mode Empirical known series. To avoid we apply thewell thisdifficulty associated withmonthlyinstrumentaltime global nonlinearpredictionisanuncertainty for ofthe The maindifficulty construction Hölder exponentequalto 0.8. maxima corresponding approximately to the have1 showsthatthesespectra similar using 1500-yr longdecennialdata.Fig. approximation byfractal data constructed computed for thefragment oftheannual in Fig. 1. were spectra The multifractal are ofthetimeseries presentedspectra fr/). BothLegendre andlarge deviation FracLab (http://fraclab.saclay.inria. software (EMD) FOR THE CSL EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION the annual data constructed by fractal approxi- byfractal constructed data annual the G ( Legendre f α Fig. 1. The large deviation f deviation 1. large The Fig. mation using 1500-yr long decennial data decennial long 1500-yr using mation ) andtheLegendre spectrum L ( α ) (2) spectra for the fragment of of fragment the for ) (2) spectra G ( α ) (1) the and f L ( α ) using lyon.fr/patrick.flandrin/emd.html wasapplied. lyon.fr/patrick.flandrin/emd.html batch http://perso.ens-components software number ofmodes. For calculationofempirical is guaranteed to becompleted withafinite andthewholedecomposition to thenext, decreased whengoingfrom oneresidual is thenumber ofextremes construction, By residual iscomputed andstep 5isapplied. Intrinsic ModeFunction this isachieved, thedetailisreferred to asan according to Once somestopping criterion. until thislatter canbeconsidered aszero-mean 1. identifyallextremes et al., 2004]: canbesummarized asfollows [Flandrin, EMD Given asignal modes. spreading outtheircomponentsover adjacent iterations andto “over-decompose” signals by tend to increase therequired numberofsifting (linear orpolynomial) ofinterpolation types Other specifically, thatcubicsplinesare to bepreferred. what isrecommended in[Huangetal., 1998], tend (andare to confirm inagreement with) role,plays andourexperiments animportant extremes. The nature ofthechoseninterpolation 3. compute themean ending upwithsomeenvelope 2. interpolate minimaandmaxima, between x iterating steps 1to 4uponthedetailsignal thedetail 4. extract e refined bya theabove practice, procedureIn hasto be 5. iterate ontheresidual Fig. 2. Decomposition of the signal by means of of bymeans signal the of Decomposition 2. Fig. ( max Signal =lowoscillation+high t empirical modes. From [Flandrin et al., 2004] al., et [Flandrin From modes. empirical ). ( t ). sifting x (

t process which amounts to first process whichamountsto first ), theeffective of algorithm d ( (IMF), the corresponding (IMF), thecorresponding t m ) = ( m t e ) =( x min ( ( t t ). ) – , e e min m max ( + t ofsignal ). e max e min 006.06.2011 12:18:03 )/2. 6 . d 0 ( ( 6 t t . ), ), ), 2 0 1 1

1 2 : 1 8 : 0 3 ggi410.indd 29 i 4 1 0 . i n d d

the real datadidnotexceed 1%. EMD. ofpredicted valuesfrom Deviation of three predictionsmadewiththehelpof EMD decompositionandthemeanvalues the sumof2,4,5,6,7,and8modes Fig. 4showstheCSLreal monthlydata, CSL monthdata(1)andtheprediction(2). v4.0E.Network outbyANN,namely carried wereAll predictionsoftheCSLtimeseries 2003. 1999–December months: December interval original datawas99,8%.For delay selected for whichthecorrelation coefficientwiththe of modes2,4,5,6,7,and8were taken, From modes, empirical thesum 8constructed 1837to of2002 were December used. January themonthlydatafrom theexperiment, During NUMERICAL RESULTS 2 Fig. 4. Comparison of the real CSL monthly data data monthly CSL real the of Comparison 4. Fig. 9 decomposition (2) and the mean value of three three of value mean the (2) and decomposition (1), the sum of 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 modes of EMD EMD of 7, 6, 5, 4, 8modes (1), 2, and of sum the predictions based on EMD decomposition (3) decomposition EMD on based predictions Fig. 3. The CSL real monthly data (1) data monthly real CSL The 3. Fig. τ = 37, the prediction interval was 37 was37 =37,thepredictioninterval and the prediction (2) prediction the and Fig. 3demonstrates real Statistica Neural anthropogenic climaticchanges”. theenvironment during and Kazakhstan ofwaterprediction resources usagein of Kazakhstan “Resource evaluationand and technical program oftheRepublic This research wasfundedbythescientific predictions remains anopenchallenge. of themostprobable from variant asetof a great numberofpossiblevariants. Selection represents anill-posedproblem asitproduces to pointoutthatanonlinearprediction isnecessary It usefulinpractice. is extremely forecast which theCSLsat1–3yrsintervals, mentioned above have to shownpossibility basedontheapproaches Our experiments different modes. empirical with thehelpofANNfor combinationsof wereThe globalnonlinearpredictions made ofcorrelation ofthe timeseries. disturbance that allowed delicate noisefiltrationwithout implemented withthehelpofEMDtechnique Additional improvement ofthedatawas spectra. invariance by multifractal wasverified ofstatisticalscale property The necessary that allowed increasing thetimeseries. approximation fractal ofthedecennialdata annual instrumentaldata,we constructed datatogetherdecennial historical withthe records fromthe known thepast. To usethe answer by ofthetrainingsetconstructed examples into theoutputsasknown The ANNistrainedbytransforming input i.e. anonlinearpredictor.function, continuousandmultivariable an unknown ANNs, thatare optimalapproximating tool for isrealizedThe prediction bymeansofthe errors inherent prediction. inastep-by-step one canavoid anexponentialincrease of consecutive setatthesametime. Therefore, vector prediction,i.e.construct to forecast a dimension. itpossibleto This approach makes inEuclidianspaceofanappropriate time series dynamical system withthehelpofembedding predictions basedonthereconstructionofa We have discussedthemethodofCSLs ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS CONCLUSION

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3 0 16. Schaw, R.(1981) Strangeattractors, chaoticbehavior,16. andinformation flow. Z.Naturforsch, Sauer,15. T., Yorke, J.A., Casdagli,M.(1991)Embedology. J. Statist.Phys., Vol. 65,pp. 579–616. Fractals, R.H.,Scheuring, I.,(1997)Conditional Spectra. Riedi, andRelative Multifractal N5, 14. 13. Poggio, T., Girosi, F. A(1989)for ofnetworks approximation andlearning. MITAI Theory 12. Makarenko, L.M.,Kyandykov, N.G.,Karimova, 11. Makarenko, Y.B., M.M.(2004)NonlinearDynamics Novak, 10. I.A.,Shveikina, Kozhevnikova, V.I. (2008)Nonlineardynamicsoflevel intheCaspianSea. L.M.,Kuandykov, Karimova, Y.B., M.M.,Helama,S.,(2007)Fractal N.G.,Novak, Makarenko, 9. methods and N.(2003)Fractal S.,Makarenko, geometry L.,Mukhamejanova, Karimova, 8. Huang, N.E.,Shen,Zh.,Long, St.R.,andetal. (1998) modedecomposition The empirical 7. Halsey, T.C., Jensen,M.H.,Kadanoff, L.P., Procaccia, I.,Schraiman,B.I. (1968)Fractal measures and 6. Golitsyn,G.S.(1995)ChangesintheCaspianSeaLevel asaProblem for Diagnosing and 5. . Flandrin, P., Gonçalves, P. wavelet-like modedecompositionsasdata-driven (2004) Empirical 4. Cochran,W.O., J.C., Patrick Hart J. F. (1998)OnApproximating RoughCurves With Fractal 3. Bishop, Ch.M.,(2006)Pattern Recognition Learning. andMachine Springer, 738p. 2. Barnsley, M.F. (2000)Fractals Hawley Rising, 550p. Everywhere. 1. REFERENCES Vol. 36a,pp. 80–112. pp. 153–168. Lab. Technical No. Memo 1140,Paper Report, No. 31. neuroinformatics. “ Neuroinformatics-2003”, 1,pp. 86–148,(inRussian). part. Scientific, pp. 91–102. and Prediction oftheCaspianSeaLevel. inPatterns,Thinking M.Novak(ed.). World Water Resources, Vol. 35,pp. 297–304. anditsApplications,Mechanics N373,pp. 737–746. and topological dynamicsfor theanalysisofpaleoclimaticrecords. Physica A:Statistical from France,Abstracts themeetingheldinNice, #186. 2003,abstract 6–11April neurocomputing for CaspianSealevel forecasting. EGS–AGU –EUGJointAssembly, Lond. A., Vol. 454,pp. 903–995. analysisProc. timeseries for spectrum nonlinearandnon-stationary R.Soc. and theHilbert ofstrangesets. thecharacterizations their singularities: Russian). Predicting Regional ClimaticChanges. expansions. Vancouver, BC,Canada.pp. 65–72. Functions. 1998Conference, Proceedings oftheGraphicsInterface June18–20,1998, Inter. Journ.ofWavelets, Multiresolution andInformationProcessing N.G. (2003) Embedology and Neural Networks, Moscow.N.G. (2003)EmbedologyandNeuralNetworks, Lectures on Izv. RAN,Fiz.Izv. Atm.Okeana Phys. R ev. A., Vol. 33,pp. 1141–1151. Vol. 31,pp. 385–391.(in . Vol. 2,pp. 1–20. 006.06.2011 12:18:04 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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3 1 Moscow. (2007). P. 316–352 (in Russian). Econophysics. physics Modern in search ofeconomy theory. V.V. Kharitonov, Ezov (Eds). A.A. Makarenko N., Karimova L.Contemporary nonlinear methods oftime // series prediction sensing data. // Issled. Zemli izKosmosa, (2008), №3. P. 1–9 (in Russian). Makarenko N., Kruglun О., Makarenko segmentation I., Karimova Multifractal L. ofremote computational topology methods//Physica A.(2007). V. 380.P. 98–108. L.,NovakM.M.Investigation ofglobalsolarmagnetic fieldby N.,Karimova Makarenko (2007), V. 373,P. 737–746. Nikolai Makarenko Lyailya Karimova OlgaKruglun Applied nonlinear dynamics. 2009. V. 17. P. (in 84–97 Russian). KnyazevaMorphological Image Analysis. Main publications: Makarenko N., I. Multifractal Neuroinformatics, dynamics, Nonlinear research in lies Institute ofMathematics, focus ofhis The Almaty, Kazakhstan. analysisand leading scientist, also ofTechnical Doctor Science ofthe of digitalDoctor of Physical and Mathematicalobtained theDiploma on“Astronomy”. images. Heis aleading Sciences scientist, of GAO, Pulkovo, atstudied theUral State University, graduated in // 1967 and Izv. VUZ. dynamics for theanalysis ofpaleoclimaticrecords. Physica A., M.M.NovakandS.Helama.FractalMakarenko, andtopological Analysis. publications:L.Karimova, Main Y. Kuandykov, N. Nonlinear dynamics, Analysis, Image Multifractal Morphological Science.and Mathematical The focus ofherresearch lieson ofMathematics, PhDleading scientistofInstitute inPhysical in 1973andobtainedtheDiplomaon “Radiophysics”. Sheisa She studiedattheSaintPetersburg State University, graduated Geophys., (2009). V. 27, P. 1097–1111. //Ann. andlinearalgorithms neuralnetworks using artificial Medieval Warm Period summertemperatures reconstructed Dendroclimatic transfer revisited: functions LittleIceAge and O.A., L.M.,Kruglun, etal. N.G.,Karimova Helama, S.,Makarenko, publications: Analysis, Main NeuralNetworks. Image Morphological The focus ofherresearch Analysis, liesonMultifractal ofMathematics, PhDscientist ofInstitute in Technical Science. and obtainedtheDiplomaon “Mathematics”. Sheisasenior NationalUniversity, graduated in2004 studied attheKazakh was born in Almaty, Kazakhstan, in1981.She inAlmaty, wasborn Kazakhstan, was born in Almaty, Kazakhstan, in1948. inAlmaty,was born Kazakhstan, was born in was Troitzk, born Russia, in 1945. He 006.06.2011 12:18:04 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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3 2 main pollutionsources for the northern of hydrocarbon fuel [Dumont,1998]. The andtransportation of intense oilextraction withpollutantsasaresulthydrocarbons (HC) can occur, ofoil as well astheentry [Efimov, 2000].Here, naturaloilseepage potential estimated at16–32billionbarrels regionsgas bearing withthehydrocarbon oil-and- CaspianSeaisoneoftherichest The bottom sediments hydrocarbons, matter, suspendedparticulate hydrocarbons, aromatic polycyclic alkane, marginal filters, oil, hydrocarbons, aliphatic KEY WORDS: ofthesea. open part filter ofthe Volga anddonotenter River the (oil andpyrogenous) donotpassthemarginal ofthesediments. type The anthropogenic HC their content isindependentofthegrain-size the region ofavalanche sedimentation,and greatest accumulationoftheHCproceeds in fresh appeared andsalinewaters. thatthe It matter, temperatures, andmixingof varying changes causedbyprecipitation ofparticulate matter andbottom sedimentsundergoes compounds, theHCcompositioninparticulate precipitation ofanthropogenic andnatural Caspian Sea.Becauseoftransformation and of the shelfofthe Volga andthenorthern River layer ofthebottom sediments and inthesurface polyaromatic) matter inthefiltered particulate composition ofhydrocarbons (aliphaticand Data are presented onthecontent and e-mail: [email protected] e-mail: P.P. Shirshov ofOceanology, Institute RussianAcademy ofSciences, Moscow, Russia Inna A.Nemirovskaya INTRODUCTION ABSTRACT SEDIMENTS OF THE VOLGA DELTA PARTICULATE MATTER AND BOTTOM DISTRIBUTION OF HYDROCARBONS IN geochemicalbarrier, of dissolved C supplied from theavandelta, thecontent thetransformedet al, 2003].In Volga waters by the Volga runoffalone[Shiganova River the biogenicorganic matter (OM)issupplied runoff,90% ofthetotal riverine and80%of (because oftheshallowness)receives about a littlemore than1%ofthewater ofthesea oftheCaspianSeacontaining part northern runoff [Dumont,1998; Tolosa et al, 2004]. The production, navigation, andthe Volga River oftheCaspianSeaare thecoastaloil part 0.59% C compounds andcontained from 0.031to had ratherlowconcentrations oforganic the sandybottom sediments(2003,Fig. 1) waters oftheCaspianSeashowed that inthecoastal earlier studies performed of mineralandorganic composition). The and transformation ofdissolved substances the biological zone emerges (assimilation water clearing, phytoplankton develops and compoundsand sedimentation ofvarious zone offlocculationandcoagulation).After dissolved compoundsare captured (the the physicochemical zone, colloidsand andhindered photosynthesis. turbidity In occurs;thisareafractions hashighwater water, sedimentationofsand–silty water bymarinedamming ofriverine the gravitational zone, becauseofthe physicochemical, andbiological. In gravitational,zones withspecificfunctions: [Lisitsyn, 1995])consistsofthree basic water mixing(marginaland marine filter Academician A.P. Lisitsyn,thearea ofriverine According to themodelproposed by [Agatova etal, 2005]. org andfrom 19.8to 142.1μg/gof org varies from varies 500to 667μM 006.06.2011 12:18:05 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

1 2 : 1 8 : 0 5 ggi410.indd 33 i 4 1 0 . i n d d

correlation between the distribution ofC correlation thedistribution between 2008].Aweak statistical and Brekhovskikh, aliphatic hydrocarbons [Nemirovskaya (AHC) as 16.8–23.9%ofC channelswas,River inseveral cases, ashigh 3881μg/g). inthe The AHCfraction Volga of bothC the marginal filter) hadhighconcentrations of the Volga of (thegravitation River part sediments sampledin2004thechannels of thesecompounds. Onthecontrary, the and AHC(r=0.14)indicated different origins Delta (Fig.Delta 1). HC (PAH) andtheirtransformation inthe Volga aromatic the genesisofAHCandpolycyclic These studieswere aimedatidentificationof to channelsoftheDelta Volga) took place. the studiesof Volga (from River Konakovo and bottom sedimentswere 2009, collected. In matter continued andsamplesofparticulate shelfoftheCaspianSeawere northern 2005,2006,and2009,thestudies ofthe In Tolosa etal, 2004]. 2004; oilsupply[Nemirovskaya, a permanent higher thanthatinotheraquaticareas with 3 3 Fig. 1. The sampling scheme of the northern shelf of the Caspian Sea (2003–2009 – bottom sedi- –bottom (2003–2009 Sea Caspian the of shelf northern the of scheme 1. sampling The Fig. org (upto 8.6%)andAHC(upto org 8–22 – station nos. where the bottom sediments were sampled in2005 sampled were sediments 8–22 thebottom where –station nos. , whichwasconsiderably ments; 2006 – filtered particulate matter). particulate –filtered 2006 ments; org

concentration from water, matter, particulate and The procedure ofHCextraction layers) were byan collected grab.“Ocean“ andreduced subsurface (oxidized surface fiberglass filters GF/F. Bottom sediments Particulate matter wasconcentrated on form) [Shiganovaetal, 2003]. to bottom sediments(i.e., thetransporting OM onthepathfrom photosynthesis sources matter represents particulate atransitform of because cycle, of thebiogeochemicalcarbon part matter isanecessary aquatic particulate 2004; etal,Winkels 1998].Moreover, theHCof 2004; sediments [Nemirovskaya, Tolosa etal, matter andbottom composition inparticulate ofmoleculartracerswithintheHC comparison transformation may beidentifiedthrough Therefore, the processes ofOMtransfer and which accumulate thesecompounds. the sedimentation,fallto bottom sediments, matter and, during byparticulate easily sorbed Because oftheirhydrophobic HCare properties, METHODS 006.06.2011 12:18:05 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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3 4 ranges: 0.18−5.77mg/lofC withinthefollowing matter varied particulate The contents oforganic compounds in . anthracene (AN), andtriphenylene (TRF) (PL),benzo(a)pyrene (BP), (CHR), perylene (PH), fluoranthene(FL),pyrene (P),chrysene identified: naphthalene(NА),phenanthrene following unsubstituted polyarenes were US Environmental Protection Agency. The polyarenes received ofthe from alaboratory using astandard ofindividual ofamixture at254nm Measurements were performed water (ina75:25volume proportion). with ofacetonitrile media wasamixture 100-5C18PAH column;theelutriation (AcoNova, Russia);Nucleosil Novosibirsk, liquid chromatography usingaMilikhrom were byhighperformance determined (PAH) concentrationsandcomposition aromaticThe polycyclic hydrocarbon squalane asastandard. GC 121-2chromatograph (France) using gas chromatography withanIntersmat composition were bycapillary determined a standard. concentrationsand The alkane 37.5, and25vol. %,respectively) wasusedas hexadecane,isooctane, andbenzene (37.5, using IRspectrophotometry. of Amixture AHC concentrationswere also determined gel usingcolumnchromatography. The wasseparated onsilicaThe HCfraction spectrometer.using aShimadzuIRAffinity-1 at2930cm-1band by IRspectrophotometry (lipids)wasdetermined fraction extractable was dissolved inCCl4, andthebulk dichloromethane after removal The extract 2004]. [Nemirovskaya, matter andbottomfrom sediments particulate added for dehydration theHCextraction during sampling. directly after Sodiumsulfate was HC werewithdichloromethane extracted standardized. and bottom sedimentswasstrictly of PAH in 2006;and0.006–0.114mg/lofC of lipids, 90−500μg/lofAHCand20–108.6ng/l highest concentrations in the coastal waters of highest concentrationsinthecoastal waters of 2006,the and 6.2–39.2μg/lofAHCin2009. In RESULTS org , 130–710 μg/l l , 130–710μg/ll org

lipid compositionwas74.7% onaverage = 0.93. r(lipids–AHC) withinthe Their fraction contents ofthesecompoundswasobserved: correlation the between AHC andastrict matter consistmainlyof of particulate coastal waters oftheCaspianSea,lipids the 2009; Lisitsyn,1995].In [Kravchishina, formationduring of thenepheloidlayer by thesupplyfrom thebottom sediments may becausedbythesmalldepthsand insignificantly,concentrations varied which ofthe mainwaterthe direction flow, their zones ofincreased AHCconcentrationsin increase again. With thedistancefrom the the “ooze plug,” theAHCconcentrations concentrations. Later, atS=4.6–5.4‰in precipitates causingadecrease intheAHC matter particulate oftheparticles, stability S >0.2‰,dueto thelossofaggregative of themarginal filter [Lisitsyn,1995].At inthefreshwater iron, andbacteria part matter,of particulate humicandfulvicacids, promoted bythepresence oflarge amounts 2004]. (1–10 μm)[Nemirovskaya, This is mattercomponents, onfineparticulate ofemulsified,sorption mainlyanthropogenic concentrations grow, whichiscausedby (S)[Lisitsyn,1995].AtS=0.2‰,their salinity forms compoundsiscontrolled ofvarious by the content ofdissolved andparticulate waterarea mixing, andmarine ofriverine standard the deviation(σ)of20μg/l. In AHC was140μg/lonaverage withthe channel: and atastationintheBakhtemir near theexitfrom thenavigable canal matter were alsoregistered atastation AHCconcentrationsinparticulate Increased parts ofC parts AHC content isonlytenths oreven hundredth bottom sediments from unpolluted areas, the areas. themostrecent samples ofmarine In innear-harboraquatic which isusuallyobserved the OMcompositionwasashigh39.4%, was aslow55.5μg/g, within theirfraction the AHCcontent inthebottom sediments 2008], area andBrekhovskikh, [Nemirovskaya canal dredging. 2003,atastation inthesame In placebecauseofthenavigable dumping takes with themaximumatastationwhere ground the CaspianSeawere found near Tyulenii Island org [Nemirovskaya, 2004]. 2004]. [Nemirovskaya, 006.06.2011 12:18:06 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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On thecontrary, inthecompositionofC is usuallyincreased 2004]). [Nemirovskaya, (in oil-polluted areas, ofAHC thefraction = 1.2). H the n-С25–С27oddhomologues(CPI= molecular rangethemaximumisconfinedto ofphytoplankton), while in thehigh- alkanes (autochthonous associated withn-C17–C18 the low-molecularrange, themaximumis ofthehomologues(Fig.distribution 2).In biogenic substanceandshowsabimodal istheclosestto thatofthe the alkanes near Tyulenii Island, thecompositionof andJeffrey,[Kennicutt 1988].Atthestations ofHCoilandphytoplanktoncharacteristic within1.0–1.3,whichis of thesamplesvaried index inthehigh-molecularrange)most preferencehomologues (CPI,orthecarbon becausetheratioofoddto even of alkanes, were byauniform characterized distribution matter presence ofoilHC.AHCparticulate respectively, whichmay indirectlypointto the lipids andAHCincreased to 65.3and48.3%, channel, whereof Bakhtemir thefractions The exceptions were found atstationsinthe AHC was23.4%orbelow(16.5%onaverage). or below(21.4%onaverage); of thefraction most ofthesamples,was25% theirfraction lipids were nottheprevailing In fraction. 3 5 Fig. 2. Chromatogram of the alkanes in an integrated sample of particulate matter igh-molecular alk from the aquatic area near Tyulenii Island Tyulenii near area aquatic the from anes prevail: org , of transformation ofdifferent HCclasses. sources oftheirformation orto ahighdegree AHC, whichmay pointeitherto thesame generally follow oflipidsand thedistribution ofthePAHThe variations concentrations 2004]. shelf[Nemirovskaya, of theSakhalin concentration was70ng/l and 73ng/linthenear-bottom waters; the particulate matterwere particulate the average PAH concentrationsinfiltered increased. For example, intheGulfofRiga, concentrations ofpolyarenes isusually areas harbor andcoastalzones,In the seawaters 2004]. (20ng/l)[Nemirovskaya, on average) washigherthanthatinopen 2006,thecontent oftotal PAHIn (43.7ng/l 2004]. [Nemirovskaya, products of biotransformed residues oflightoil are characteristic ofiso-compounds series shape ofthehumpandpresence ofthe andJeffrey,Kennicutt 1988]. The cogged compounds [BouloubassiandSaliot,1993; aut of which ischaracteristic =1.7(prystane/phytane), i-C19/i-C20 =0.33,and =0.53,i-C20/n-C18 n-C17 theratiosi-C19/ that ofiso-compounds: ishigherthan The content ofn-alkanes the ratioΣ(С12+С22)/Σ(С23+С37)= 56 ng/l in the surface waters in thesurface in the surface in thesurface ochthonous 0.39. 006.06.2011 12:18:06 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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3 6 a relatively lowC sediments containingshellsandalgae, with studied in2005are mainlypresented bysandy oftheCaspianSea part of thenorthern The bottom sedimentsofthecoastalwaters below 0.5)[Tolosa etal, 2004]. products, thevalueofFl/(Fl +Py) (with thesupplyofne point to theinfluenceofpyrogenous sources 9and12(respectively, stations 0.33and0.43)may 1993]. The lowvaluesoftheFl/(Fl +Py)ratioat place[Lipiatou etal, biosedimentation takes sedimentation, orbybioaccumulationand and matter bysorption into particulate of lightpolyarenes from dissolved forms We transformation assumethataselective (9.4) >An(7.5)>Chr(6.5)Bp(1.5)Pl (1.1). (34.4) >Fl (20.1)>N(10.8)BaAn(9.6)Py decrease ingeneralasthesequence(in%):Ph PAH matter inthearea studied inparticulate Because ofthis, thecontent ofprevailing environment. inthemarine their stability the sources oftheirformation butalsoon composition ofHCdependnotonlyon 1988]. [Rovinskii, Therefore, theamountand most unstablehydrocarbons place takes water temperatures, decompositionof summer, withtheincrease intheairand 1988; [Rovinskii, Tolosa late etal, 2004].In or underabiogenousnaturalsynthesis PAH are formed eitherinpyrolytic processes by phytoplankton, orbyoilpollution,and environmentmarine through theirsynthesis isbelieved thatAHCare suppliedtoIt the Volga moutharea, River r(C sediments from thecoastal waters ofthe layer ofthe data of2004,for thesurface by theirgrain-size According type. to our sediments moisture mainly isdetermined When passingfrom sandsto silts, theC onthedegreeextent, ofsedimentdispersion. organic compoundsdepends, to agreat increased to 1.199%. ofThe distribution from station5,inwhichC sediment The exception isthesilty–clayey 2005), r(C area studied:r(C sediment dispersionandC 2004]. There wasacorrelation between value usually org –moisture) =0.96(in2009). The increases [Nemirovskaya, org org content (0.197–0.582%). –moisture) =0.92 (in wly-formed org concentrations org –moisture) = org combustion combustion inthe ratio is org

high AHCcontent intheC (tree foliage) 2004]. to 0.01%[Nemirovskaya, The 0.048% decreasing inhigherterrestrial plants and inphytobenthos itisrespectively 0.14%and 2.0-101.4 μg/g, 03-33.8%ofC indicate the impact ofoilHC. indicate theimpact of theCaspianSeaand Volga may River also shelf the bottom sedimentsfrom thenorthern 24% ofC comprised in 2004,onecase, theAHCfraction thesedimentsfrom the In Volga channels River values in biological objects. In theplanktonic C values inbiological objects.In is usually1%orbelow, witheven lower average bottom sediments, marine theAHCfraction In 74.5% ofC and nearoilstorages, ofAHCreached thefraction River,the Severnaya Dvina flood thespring during 2008]. Onlyinthesedimentsofmoutharea of 70–4557 μg/g, 3.55–62.5%ofC sedimentandto theOMcomposition: to dry widelybothwithrespect Their valuesvaried substance. higher thanthoseinafine-grained sedimentsappeared to be coarse-grained the area studied, theAHCconcentrationsin for capability oilproducts. in Nevertheless, andillite have themaximumsorption Kaolin matter.the water mass containingparticulate compounds, includingthepollutantsfrom <0.1mmprevails) organic fraction easilyabsorb (Fig. sediments(especiallywhenthe 3).Silty bythegrain-sizedetermined ofsediments type ofHC,inmostcases,The distribution isalso 2008]. andBrekhovskikh, = 0.96[Nemirovskaya UCM) was also maximal at station 19: 194.7 UCM) wasalsomaximalatstation 19:194.7 compounds (unresolved complexmixture – andnaphthenic The content ofalkanes n =16). stations 18and19,aC Fig. thesamearea, atthecloselylocated 1).In was found inthesedimentsfrom station19(see 2005,themaximumofAHCconcentrations In of C a weak correlationthe distribution between HC to thebottom sediments. Therefore, only was probably causedbythelocalsupplyofoil the AHCcontent of26.6,which byafactor of1.5 corresponded toa factor achangein org and AHC was observed (r = 0.26, (r=0.26, andAHCwasobserved org org [Nemirovskaya and Brekhovskikh, andBrekhovskikh, [Nemirovskaya with the AHC content of 544 μg/g. withtheAHCcontent of544μg/g. org content change by content changeby org org , in 2009 (Table 1). 1). , in2009(Table composition of compositionof org , in 2005 and , in2005and 006.06.2011 12:18:07 6 . 0 6 org . 2 0

1 1

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to heavy homologues in the bottom sediments to homologuesinthebottom heavy sediments 1300–1500 μg/g. The valuesoftheratioslight humpwasashigh the naphthene–aromatic sediments within15−17μg/g, thecontent of concentrations inthe Baku, atthetotal n-alkane thisratiois>10[Tolosa etal, 2004]).Near alkanes, environmentthe marine (for transformed oil oftheHCtransformation in is characteristic ratioof44.2,which naphthene/n-alkane and 8597μg/g, respectively, withamaximum 3 7 and AHC in different grain-size types of sediments in 2009 in sediments of types grain-size different in AHC and Fig. 3. The distribution of moisture content, C biogenic HC: the CPI values varied within biogenic HC:theCPIvalues varied composition pointed to theprevalence of of amixed origin (Fig. 4). intheir The markers well asinthoseatstations17 and23,were inthesedimentsofstation19,as n-alkanes According ofhomologues, to thedistribution transformation. thedegreewhich alsoconfirms ofn-alkane of thisarea were quite low(within 0.19–0.69), org , 006.06.2011 12:18:07 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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3 8

Table 1. Content of Corg , AHC and PAH in the surface layer of bottom sediments AHC, % of Station Location Sediment type Сorg, % Moisture,% AHC,μg/g PAH, ng/g Corg

1 Gorodez Gray silt1.660 65.92 121.4 0.59 32 2 Above N.Novgorod Sand 0.029 19.95 6.7 1.85 undefi ned. 3 Oka River mouth Sand 0.048 14.0 3.0 0.50 “ 4 Below Cheboksary Sand 0.009 4.9 4.36 “ 5 Kama River mouth Gray silt 1.690 50.9 46.8 0.28 33 6 Kama River mouth Gray silt 1.856 47.7 18.6 0.10 35 7 Confl uence of Kama and Volga Gray silt 2.133 47.29 34.9 0.16 33 8 Tolyatty outer harbour Gray silt 1.937 46.12 107.4 0.55 145 9 Below Syzran Sand with shells 2.46 51.18 50.9 0.22 undefi ned 10 Volynsk outer harbour Oxidized silt 1.789 49.5 71.3 0.40 “ 11 Above Balakovo Brown fi ne sand 0.016 19.29 10.6 5.30 16 12 B.Irgiz Brown fi ne sand 0.031 32.83 4.02 1.03 26 13 Above Saratov Brown fi ne sand 0.012 19.33 21.7 14.47 57 14 Kamishin Gray silt 1.789 49.5 71.3 0.40 85 15 Confl uence of Kamishinka and Volga Gray silt 3.899 50.24 485.4 1.24 178 16 Below Volgograd Sand with pebble 0.136 16.55 2.40 0.14 13 17 Zagan-Aman village Sand with black inclusions 0.036 17.43 4.50 1.00 21 3У Akhtuba channel Silty sand with shells 0.245 23.2 33.1 1.08 12 7У Starobelinsky channel Silty sand 0.359 27.0 20.2 0.44 2 6У Joltaya stream (3 km from Starobelinsky channel) Black ooze 0.499 33.5 2.0 0.03 undefi ned 9У Belinsky channel (to the left from waterway) Dark silty sand 0.029 20.9 2.0 0.55 “ 11У Kamyziak channel (Tabola) Fine light sand with shell fragments 0.012 18.7 16.1 10.71 “ 12У Kamyziak channel (Verkhnekalinoovsky village) Sandy silt with clay 0.15 26.8 9.8 0.52 “ 14У Ryty channel Fine clean sand 0.018 17.8 2.0 0.89 “ 15У 3 km above station 14 Dark silty sand 0.091 25.6 9.7 0.85 “ 16У Staraya Volga channel Fine clean sand 0.011 18.9 2.1 1.45 “ 19У Gandurinsky channel Clay with fi ne sand 0.006 19.7 25.3 33.81 “ 20У To the right from station 19 (in macrophyte thicket) Sand 0.155 28.1 19.0 1.00 29 21У The same (in open water) Muddy sand 1.348 54.5 43.0 0.26 24 22У To the left from station 19 (in a bay) Muddy sand 1.192 44.1 28.1 0.19 252 006.06.2011 12:18:09 6

. 23У The same (in the stream) Sand 0.38 32.7 23.0 0.47 120 0 6

. 24У 7 km below station 19 (in the channel) Dark clay 0.807 35.4 29.2 0.29 24 2 0 1 1

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[Bouloubassi andSaliot,1993]. in thelow-molecularrange compounds natural terrigenous range, andbythetransformation oil supplyinthehigh-molecular UCM iscausedbythepermanent by gaschromatography, the within 10–35.2.Beingunresolved ratiovaried naphthene/alkane 14, and18,where CPI≈1andthe sediments from stations8,11,13, ofthebottom the n-alkanes the closestto oilHCwere According to themarkers, substances. together withterrigenous sediments, oilHCprecipitate 2006]. Onshoals, withinsandy Grichyk, Saliot, 1993;Sokolova, higher plants[Bouloubassiand ofwaxesto thecontribution of whichisusuallyrelatedalkanes, odd the rangeofn-C29–C31 in the maximawere observed several cases,composition. In allochthonous processes ontheir and indicate theinfluenceofauto- may andn-C25 maxima atn-C19 >1).Moreover,phytane (i-C19/i-C20 the prevailed over3.05–6.97, andprystane 3 from the bottom sediments in 2005 at stations: 9 Fig. 4. Composition of the alkanes separated separated alkanes the of Composition 4. Fig. (stations’ 1) atFig. positions 1—18, 2—19, and3—8 station 8 - Tolyatty outer harbor; stationstation 14 harbor; 8-Tolyatty outer –Kamishin; station 3y–Akhtuba Fig. 5. Composition of the alkanes separated from the bottom bottom the from separated alkanes the of 5.Composition Fig. channel; station 7y–Starobelinsky channel; station 19y –Gandurinsky channel; andstation 21y water) channel(in open –Gandurinsky may pointto ahighdegree ofthe Tyulenii + Chr)ratiowasmaximalatstation8,which 0.36. Atthesametime, the(Py+Bp)/(Ph + minimal valueofFl/(Fl +Py)ratio, equalto the the sedimentsofthisstationconfirmed pyrogenous compositionofpolyarenes in as high382ng/g(12.2%ofΣPAH). The the polyarenes identified)atthisstationwas content of Bp(themostcarcinogenic among found inthesandysedimentof sediment, andthemaximalvalueswere also was independentofthegrain-size of type ofPAH,The distribution aswell asthatofAHC, to thestandard deviation(σ−951.2ng/g). average value(948.6ng/g)wascomparable wide(4–4800ng/g, see so Table. 3)thatthe concentrations inthebottom sedimentswas 2005,thedispersionofPAHIn origin ofAHC(Fig. 5). alsopointsto oil the compositionn-alkane 2009,inspite oflower concentrations,In sediments in 2009: in sediments station 19. The 006.06.2011 12:18:09 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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4 0 [Lisitsyn, 1995]), the principal changes take changestake [Lisitsyn, 1995]),theprincipal (marginal filters At theriver–sea boundary to fuelcombustioninthenavigable areas. 3.1), whichmay berelated to theirsupplydue sediments ofstation20(8.1atanaverage of value ofthePy/Pl ratiowasfound inthe therefore,the share ofperylene; themaximal supply ofpyrogenous polyarenes decreases studied, itscontent was6.3%onaverage. The PAH thesediments [Tolosa etal, 2004].In isover 10%ofthetotal ofperylene fraction Ross, 2004]. With thediagenetic origin, the Saliot, 1993;Lipiatou etal, 1993;Oros and 2004;Bouloubassiand matter [Nemirovskaya, plant withterrigenous sediments enriched amounts ofitare usuallypresent inthe polyarenes, thatsignificant despite thefact doesnotbelongtoPerylene theprevailing (r=0.61,n16). parameters wasobserved and asignificant correlationthese between bottom sedimentsoccursinthesameareas, of pyrogenous andoilpolyarenes to the area. According thesupply to themarkers, polyarenes inthebottom sedimentsofthis indicate thehighdegree oftransformation of the Ph/An ratiowasashigh21.7,whichmay from themainnavigable waterways, farthest is below10.Onlyatstation22,whichthe mostofthesamples, al, thisvalue 2004].In the Ph/An ratio isusuallyover 10[Tolosa et of great amountsoffresh oilcompounds, diagenetic processes andwiththesupply 2004]. Undertheintense transformation in oil origin ofthepolyarenes [Tolosa etal., of theApsheron Peninsula andrelated to in thebottom sedimentsfrom theshoals processes. accumulationwasnoted earlier Its decomposable inthecourseofnatural studied, becausethisvolatile arene iseasily inthesedimentsofarea unexpected etal, 1988]appeared 2007; Rovinskii to be offresh oilproducts[AMAP,characteristic ratherhighconcentrationsofnaphthalene The (2.2 onaverage). ratio inthebottom sedimentswasover 1 Caspian Sea,because(Py+Bp)/(Ph +Chr) ofthe part in otherareas ofthenorthern of pyrogenous polyarenes wasalsotraced pyrolysis oforganic raw materials. The effect Island area pollutionwiththeproductsof light homologues – PH and NA prevail in the light homologues–PHandNA prevail inthe contrast to AHC, inthePAHIn composition,the AHC to thebottom may beregistered. final step ofsedimentation,thesupplyoil (including finesilt)are precipitated, atthe matter ofparticulate Only asallthefractions compared to low-molecularcompounds. as matter interface the water–particulate great for capability hydrophobic bindingat plants prevail (seeFig. 2). These HCshow of thecoastalmacrophytes andgrassy high-molecular homologuescharacteristic matter,in allthesamplesofparticulate is negligible 2009]. [Kravchishina, Therefore, content (bymass)oftheclayey fraction andJeffrey,[Kennicutt 1981],becausethe origin with somecomponentsofmarine this isahighmolecularanthropogenic group autochthonous AHCrarely prevail; mostly, matter, filtered2004]. In particulate the waters [AMAP, 2007;Nemirovskaya, processes, especiallyfastinthesurface degraded through physical andbiochemical become their composition.Oilalkanes matter butalsochangesin in particulate only anincrease intheHCconcentrations anthropogenic compoundscausesnot OMrepresentedSea, theterrigenous by oftheCaspian part thenorthern 2009]. In natureof aterrigenous [Kravchishina, OMisusually waters, riverine particulate In matter.HC concentrationsinparticulate areasin harbor promotes theincrease inthe studied. Evidently, intensification ofnavigation ofthesea fromcollected thewestern part matter samples compounds inparticulate resulted inrelatively highcontents oforganic [Shiganova etal, 2003]. This probably delta, withthelatter beingmore powerful from andwestern theeastern channelsofthe isexpressedRiver inthespread oftheflows Caspian Seastudied, theeffect ofthe Volga ofthe part thearea ofthenorthern 2004]. In [Nemirovskaya, amounts suppliedbytherivers sedimentation may reach 80%from their matter decreases of10. byafactor The AHC narrow zone, in avery thefluxofriverine the substancessuppliedbyrivers. Here, place inthecontents andcompositionsof 006.06.2011 12:18:10 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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as well HCandC asbetween the grain-size compositionofthesediments, and correlation theHCdistribution between is precipitated. Becauseofthis, there isno flocculation andcoagulation,thebulkofHC [Lisitsyn, 1995].Here, theprocesses during of ofthemarginalthe physicochemical filter part avalanche sedimentationzone, whichincludes the area studiedin2005isassociated withthe shelf oftheCaspianSea(see Table 2).Evidently, onthenorthern time ofthestudiesperformed appeared to bethehighestover theentire The HCcontent inthebottom sediments matter isofmixed origin. particulate et al, 1988].Hence, thePAH compositionin because FLfeatures [Rovinskii highstability a distantairtransfer 2004], [Nemirovskaya, transformation ofthePAH compositionduring andbythe both byanthropogenic impact The highconcentrationsofFLmay becaused belong to thearenes prevailing inoilproducts. origin ofaeolicmatter. NAanditshomologues well theland astheAHCcompositionconfirm matter as a highcontent ofitinparticulate et al, 1988; 1987]and Venkatesan andKaplan, formed insoilsfrom biomass[Rovinskii buried composition ofPAH matter. ofparticulate PHis 100 μg/g, thesiltsediments are saidto μg/g). Even atthe AHC concentrationsof the background level insiltsediments(50 The average valueof895.9μg/gexceeded etal,Nemirovskaya 2007; Tolosa etal, 2004]. aquaticareas 2004; harbor [Nemirovskaya, concentrations registered inthemostpolluted grained sedimentswascomparableto the 10, 17,19(1940–4558μg/g)incoarse- 2005,thecontent ofAHCatstations In (r=0.72). observed time acorrelationC between conformed to weathered oilHC; atthesame flood,the spring thecompositionofn-alkanes River,mouth oftheSevernaya Dvina during main source ofPAH [Culotta the etal, 2006].In considered thepyrolytical processes to bethe althoughtheauthors Lagoon(Italy), of Marsalla PAH concentrationsinthecoastalsediments a correlation wasfound theOMand between even intheareas to oilpollution. subject Thus, inthebottom sediments, usually observed 4 1 org and AHC was andAHCwas org , which is , whichis polyarenes decreased in the order (in%):Py 19. Therefore, of individual thefractions 1000 ng/g, andover 4000ng/g, atstation 17, and23,thecontent ofPAH wasover the studiessince2003.Atstations10,11, theentireto of bethehighestduring period 948.6 ng/g),aswell asthoseofAHC, appeared sediments sampledin2005(onaverage, The concentrationsofPAH inthebottom 2006]. respectively [Jeng, CPI valueswere 4.08and1.70onaverage, samplesnear the marine Taiwan Island, the origin. Thus, sedimentsandin intheriverine oftheir may beusedasamarker n-alkanes the CPIvalue, therefore, thechainlengthof coast in2005.SupplyofoilHCdecreases at station23whichistheclosestto the HC,wasfoundterrigenous inthesediments value ofCPI=6.97,i.e., themaximalvalueof than thatfor siltsubstances. The maximal grained sedimentsappeared to behigher degree ofanthropogenic pollutionofcoarse- increase 2004]. [Nemirovskaya, Therefore, the their content insandysedimentsmay AHC inwater, even dueto passive sorption, increased concentrationsofanthropogenic matter inthemoutharea ofthe Volga River. At ofthesandy–silt be explainedbypoorsorting matterAHC together may withterrigenous Moreover, theaccumulationofanthropogenic alsopointsto oilorigin AHC(Fig.n-alkane 5). of lower concentrations, thecompositionof in theshallow-water zone. 2009,inspite In bulk ofanthropogenic compoundsprecipitate matter,different ofparticulate fractions andthe degrees, to ischaracteristic, various alkanes of HC. Hydrophobic bindingofhigh-molecular is truefor oilproductsmainlyconsistingof anthropogenic AHC accumulation. This Probably, there isalimitto thedegree of bottom sediments wasofamixed genesis. 2005,thecompositionofAHCin In etal,108 μg/g[Nemirovskaya 2007]. aquatic areas didtheircontent increase to and onlyinthesandy–siltmatter ofharbor background level was20μg/gorbelow, theAHC sediments oftheGulfRiga, be polluted sandy [Tolosa etal, 2004].In 006.06.2011 12:18:11 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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4 2 the Italian coasts[Culotta etal, 2006].However,the Italian 48090 ng/g, andwithin72–18381 ng/g, off their concentrationsvar area coastsofFrance, ofthenorthwestern the Sea.In sediments oftheMediterranean to thoseofthemostpolluted bottom The concentrationsobtainedare comparable content for of8–19. soils(20ng/g)byfactors considered exceeded themaximalallowable of Bpinthebottom sedimentsofthearea the sedimentsbecometoxic. The content >1000 ng/g;at PAH inthebottom sedimentsare usually supply ofpollutants, theconcentrationsof theareaset al, ofapermanent 2004].In polyarenes below100ng/g[Tolosacyclic polluted atthecontent ofthesum3–6- The sedimentsare considered aslow- received resultsAblia,2007]. [Sokolova, biogenic HC(Fig. 6),thatagrees withearlier and pyrogenous withasmallinclusion of pointed to amixed origin ofpolyarenes (oil of theavalanche sedimentationmainly inthePAHmarkers compositionofthezone ng/g and13-178ng/g, respectively. The 2-25 between bottom sedimentsvaried River, theconcentrationsofPAH inthe 2009inthe In Volga andthe Delta Volga (6.0) >Bp(5.6)>An(5.3)Chr(4.2). (21.1) >Fl (20.1)>NA(19.2)Pl (6.3)>Bpl 1, 2, 3,4—stations: 1—station 7, oftheKama confluence andtheVolga; harbor; Tolyatty outer 2—station 8, 3 —station 22у, channel(in thebay); Gandurinsky an Fig. 6. Composition of PAH separated from the bottom sediments in 2009: in sediments bottom the from PAH of separated Composition 6. Fig. the values over 4000 ng/g, the valuesover 4000ng/g, ied within6900– here to 3–17ng/g. The (Py +Bp)/(Ph +Chr) of PAH in sandysedimentsalsodecreased prevailed intheircomposition. The content oflandvegetationdecrease, andthealkanes concentrations inthebottom sediments through themarginal filter, didtheAHC passing in 2004),after studies performed shelf oftheCaspianSea(according to the etal,sources 1988].Onlyonthe [Rovinskii Bp supplyfrom naturalandanthropogenic about 400t/year, i.e., about8%ofthetotal seawater is inthesurface Bp destruction a depthof30cm(5.6%). The microbial and, to aconsiderablylower degree, at layer ofthewater (53%/h) in thesurface ofBpmainlyproceedsthe destruction simulation experiments, itwasshownthat oxidation ofnonaromatic HCofoil. In is comparableto thatofmicrobiological rate ofPAH photochemical transformation Even for themore stablepolyarenes, the plant,andanimalorganisms.by micro-, transformations, aswell asto biodegradation chemical (oxidation andphoto-oxidation) physical (weatheringanderosion) and all naturalobjects,HCareto various subject that,in This may beexplainedbythefact mixed origin (anthropogenic andbiogenic). within theircompositionpointed to their of theavalanche sedimentation,themarkers despite thehighHCconcentrationsinarea d 4—station 23у, channel (in thestream) Gandurinsky 006.06.2011 12:18:11 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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which included the river channels;the which includedtheriver were examined. The gravitational area, ShelfoftheCaspianSea –Northern River areas ofthemarginal filters ofthe Volga 2003 to 2009,the Volga andallthree River ofthestudiesfrom Thus, theperiod during anthropogenic HCfrom the Volga River. asafilter preventingshelf acts theinputof ofthe mixing. Barrier Volga River–Caspian waterthe area andriverine ofthemarine due to theprecipitation ofPandBPin ratio decreased from 0.6–11.5to 0.3–0.5 4 Table 2. Content of AHC (μg/g of dry weight) in the surface layer of the bottom sediments of the Caspian Sea Caspian the of sediments bottom the of layer surface the in weight) dry (μg/g of AHC of Content 2. Table Table 3. Content of PAH (ng/g of dry weight) in the surface layer of bottom sediments of the Caspian Sea Caspian the of sediments bottom of layer surface the in PAH weight) of Table (ng/g Content 3. dry of 3 og et 0924 « Thisstudy « « 2004 Nemirovskaya, 2–43 3–121.4 « and Nemirovskaya 70–4558 « 12–210 94–136 2009 20–142 2009 59–3881 2–14* Tolosa etal, 2004* 2001,2003 2005 14–113 2004 Note: *total alkanes. backgroundAntarctica, 39–1515 2003 2004 Volga Delta 2001 Volga River shelf Northern 2001 shelf Northern Volga channels River 2000 shelf Northern shelf Kazakhstan aquatic area) (Russian part Northern shelf Iranian shelf Azerbaijan Delta Volga 2009 2–43(Σ10 PAH) 2–43(Σ10 PAH) 3–121.4(Σ10 4–4800(Σ10PAH) 6–76(Σ8PAH) 2009 2009 3–17(Σ8PAH) 8–154(Σ8PAH) Winkels, etal, 1998 2005 7–294(Σ15PAH) 2004 94–1789(Σ15PAH) 2003 2004 Volga Delta 40 338–2988(Σ15PAH) 2001 Volga River shelf Northern 2001 shelf Northern Volga channels River 2000 shelf Northern 1993 shelf Kazakhstan aquatic area) (Russian part Northern shelf Iranian shelf Azerbaijan Volga mouth River einYa H Reference AHC Year Region einYa A Reference PAH Year Region 0014*« 1–42* 2000 006–345(Σ15PAH) 2000 [Lisitsyn, 1995].Here, theprocesses during of ofthemarginal physicochemical filter part sedimentation zone, whichincludesthe treated in2005isassociated to theavalanche E 2,3). the CaspianSea(Tables shelfof onthenorthern performed the surveys appeared to bethehighestover allthetimeof 2005,theHCcontent inthebottom sediments In natural origin ofHCinthebottom sediments. point,to thehighestdegree,the markers to a concentrations; andthebiological area, where avalanche sedimentationwiththehighestHC physicochemical area, orthezone ofthe Brekhovskikh, 2008 Brekhovskikh, Nemirovskaya and Nemirovskaya Tolosa etal, 2004* Brehovskikh, 2008 Brehovskikh, vidently, thearea This study 006.06.2011 12:18:13 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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4 4 7. Jeng W-L. (2006) Jeng W-L. Higher Plant n-Alkane Average Chain Length an Indicator As 7. of Efimov I. OilThe (2000) Gasand Resource Base oftheCaspian Region // J. of Petroleum 6. 5. Dumont Sediments Surface of PAH Composition The (2006) al. et Gianguzza, A. Stefano, De C. Culotta, H. 4. J. (1998) Caspian Bouloubassi Saliot I.and A. (1993) Investigation ofAnthropogenic and Natural Organic3. Lake: AMAP (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme) History, (2007). Chapter 4. Sources, Inputs 2. Agatova B.Kirpichev, I., K. Lapina, A. N.M. etal. (2005) Organic Matter in theCaspian Biota, Sea / 1. Structure, and Function //Limnol. increased role ofHCinC the influenceofnaturalprocesses. However, parameters studiedundergo changesunder that indicate insignificant oilpollution. The corresponded to theirbackground levels waters andsediments of HCinthesurface Volga anditsinflows. River The concentration play leading role attheconfluenceof level ofthe Volga River. Diffusionanddilution ofsummersteady lowwater characteristic waters are substances inthesurface The lowconcentrationsofsuspended is precipitated. flocculation andcoagulation,thebulkofHC particulate matter andthebottom sediments.particulate inthecompositionoffiltered were observed mass. Therefore, pronounced distinctions bottom becauseofthedissolutioninwater matter donotreach the biogenic particulate the bottom sediments, andthegrains of Particulate matter isconsiderablyfinerthan both anthropogenic andnaturalcompounds. due to thetransformation andprecipitation of undergoesVolga regular changes estuary River and thebottom sedimentsinthearea ofthe matter The compositionofHCinparticulate to theinfluenceofpollutingoilcompounds. sediments ofthe Volga probably Delta were due REFERENCES CONCLUSIONS No 3–4. pp. 242–251.No 3–4. PetrogenicScience Hydrocarbons Eng. Vol. 28. pp. 157–159. Oceanogr. Vol. 43. pp. 44–52. Contaminationfrom Stagnone Coastal Marsalla Lagoon, (Italy) // Mar. Chem. Vol. 99No1–7. pp. 117–127. in Marine Vol.Acta. 16. pp. 145–161. SedimentsInputs in Estuarine Sediments Using Hydrocarbon Markers (NAN, PAH) LAB, // Oceanol. //other Contaminants. Mar. Oslo: AMAP. 310 p. Chem.and Concentrations ofPetroleum Hydrocarbons, Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons, and Vol.102.Okeanologiya. Vol. 45. No. 6.pp. 841–850. org in arenaceous inarenaceous for basicresearch); projectno. 10-05-10084-а. Russian Academy ofSciences)(Program no. 21 Foundation for BasicResearch (Presidium ofthe bytheRussian This studywassupported et al, 2004]. polluted areas oftheCaspianSea[Tolosa shelfisoneoftheleast the northern amount ofanthropogenic compounds, despite the Volga supplyingagreat River is possible thatbecauseofthisand It thesea. entering filter preventing theanthropogenic HCfrom of the Volga asa shelfacts River–Caspian 2009 showed thatthegeochemicalbarrier The synthesisofthedataobtainedin2003– bottom sediments. content and thegrain-size compositionofthe theHC between no correlation wasobserved to 4800ng/gfor thetotal PAH). Becauseofthis, place(upto 4557.9μg/gfortakes AHCandup the HCaccumulationinbottom sediments avalanche sedimentation,thehighestdegree of ofthemarginal filter,part inthearea ofthe processes. As aresult, inthephysicochemical gravitational, physicochemical, andbiological substancesareOM withmarine causedby The deviationsfrom asimpledilutionofriverine ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 006.06.2011 12:18:13 6 . 0 6 . 2

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24. Winkels H.J., Y. S.B.Kroonenberg, M. Lychagin, etal. (1998) ofPriority Geochronology 23. Venkatesan Kaplan (1987) J. and I.R. M. ofAntarctic Marine Lipid Geochemistry The etal.Tolosa (2004) Sheikholeslami Aliphatic R. M.R. I., S.MoraM. and Aromatic Hydrocarbons 22. 21. (2007) AbliaSokolova E.A. M.N. Investigation biomarkers in organic matter ofbottom 20. GrichykSokolova D.V. M.N. (2006) Investigation sediments ofpollution ofbottom ofthe 19. Shiganova T. V. A., V. Sapozhnikov, E.I.Musaeva, etal. (2003) Factors Determining the 18. Rovinskii F.17. Oros D. R. and Ya., J. M. Ross (2004) Polycyclic Aromatic T. Hydrocarbons A. in Estuary sediments Teplitskaya, // Nemirovskaya A.P. IA., 16. Lisitzin and V.P. Shevchenko (2007) Distribution and Composition of and T. A. Alekseeva (1988)15.Nemirovskaya I. Background A and V. F. Brekhovskikh (2008)14. Origin Monitoring of Hydrocarbons in theNemirovskaya Particulate of Methods for Studying Organic13. Matter in theOcean (1980) Romankevich Ed.by E.A. Nauka, 12. Guidelines.Methodic (1996) I. Determination ofPollutants in theSamples ofBottom A. Lisitsyn, A.P. (1995)11. Marginal The filter (2004) oftheOcean // Oceanology.Vol. 34, No. 5, pp. 671–682. Hydrocarbons10. Lipiatou, Saliot. J. and Marty, A. (1993) Sediment Trap Fluxes and Transport ofPolycyclic Kravchishina D. M. (2009) Suspended Particulate Matter in theWhite Sea Grain-Size and its 9. in the (1981) Jeffrey M. C.and L. M. Kennicutt Chemical and GC-MS Characterization ofMarine 8. Ocean (Snow–Ice–Water–Particulate 4 5 Rhone Delta //Rhone Delta Vol. Applied Geochem. 13. pp. 581–591. Pollutants in Sedimentation Zones oftheVolga and Danube in Delta Comparison withthe Sediments: Bransfield Strait // Mar. Chem. Vol. 21. pp. 347–375. in Coastal Caspian Sea Sediments //Mar. Pollut. Bull. Vol. pp. 44–60. 48. Russian]. and Middlesediments Caspian oftheNorth Sea // Vestnik MGU, №2, pp. 49-57 [in CaspianNorth Sea withorganic compounds //Vestnik MGU, №6, pp. 16-23. Russian]. [in Caspianleidyi in theNorth // Okeanologiya. Vol. 43 No5, pp. 716–733. Conditions ofDistribution and Quantitative Characteristics oftheCtenophore Mnemiopsis Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad. 224 p. Russian]. [in Mar. Chem. Vol. 86.pp.169-184. of theTenth International Symposium onRiver Sedimentation. Moscow. V.4. P.175-184. Hydrocarbons in Bottom Sediments at theRiver-Sea Geochemical Barrier // Proceedings No. 1,48, pp. 43–53. Matter and Bottom Shelf Sediments oftheCaspian oftheNorthern Sea // Oceanology, Vol. Matter–Bottom Sediments) (Nauchn. Mir, Moscow. 328 p. [in Russian]. Moscow. 343 p. [in Russian]. Sediments. RD52.10.556-95 Gidrometeoizdat, Moscow. P. 18-26 [in Russian]. Aromatic Hydrocarbons in theMediterranean Sea //Mar. Chem. Vol. pp. 43–54. 44. Distribution. Nauchn. Mir, Moscow. 263 p. Russian]. [in Dissolved Lipids // Mar. Chem. No. 10, pp. 367–387. InnaA.Nemirovskaya and two books. regions. andAntarctic Arctic Author of190scientificworks inmany expeditions including thosetoShe took part hydro-, bio-, lithosphere inthe cryo-, atmo-, World Ocean. anthropogenesis hydrocarbons spheres: inallexternal qualitative distributionofvariousclassesnaturaland The focus ofresearch: mechanismof quantitative and Oceanology, RussianAcademy ofSciences, DSc. inGeology. oftheP.Analytical Laboratory P. Shirshov of Institute University Faculty ofChemistry. Now sheistheHeadof graduated from theMoscow State 006.06.2011 12:18:13 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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4 6 adversely affect environment quality. of compensationsfromthat theactivities andfor activities calculation conservation assessmentofnature economic efficiency of ecosystems isusefulbothfor services rates for theproductionandnon-material members. The ideaofspecialdiscount amongconsumingcommunity sharing resourceconsumption, usingequal-parts and, type for the Cobb-Douglas acollective of functions special caseofindividualutility resources inregeneration restricted inthe for discountingrates for renewable natural The paperestimates value thereduction consumption ofthelimited goodisreached. over alevel atwhichthemaximumof inthecourseofbudgetgrowth trajectory from theanalysisofaconsumer choice reprocessing andconsumption. This follows intheir restricted production andservices discounting rate for non-replaceable a result, there existstheneedfor special simple, notexpanded, reproduction. As natural “technologies”, and consequently of character substitutes andconservative anthropogenic as absenceofhigh-grade many ecosystem valuesdiffer insuchaspects suggested byD. Pearce used. isoften However, Nowadays, the activities. assessment ofconservation natural ofthepaperisto justifyspecial The purpose ABSTRACT [email protected] e-mail: oftheMoscow Sciences State University,Museum ofEarth RussianFederation; Alexey A.Kotko environmental activity effective strengthecosystem services, of rate, investments, ecosystem production, KEY WORDS: TO ASSESS THE FLOW OF INVESTMENTS DISCOUNTING TREATMENT FOR NATURE OFTHE SPECIAL NECESSITY discount rates in the efficiency discount rates intheefficiency discounting, naturaldiscount social rate ofdiscounting

hectare ofaforest today andahectareofthe ecosystem andservices. products Thus, a conditions ofnaturalstocks andstreams of ofplanned scenarios estimations ofvarious demand for puttingto thecurrent timethe variants Both ofdescribed ecologicalwill outweigh losses. planned newvaluesofanthropogenic origin whether ecological economics pointofview: oftheprojectfrom acomplex practicability isrequiredbe evaluated. It to estimate of environment hasto characteristics, modified ecosystems orto deterioration ofdestroyed or andservices of products which may leadto reductioninastream orpublicinvestmentA private project, 2. located onthem. use oftheoccupiedlandsorresources ofalternative from themissedopportunities ecosystems, butprobably leadsto losses improved,conserved, restored, orestablished the valuereceived fromof functioning implied thatany increases ofthesescenarios is works.of realization It oftree-planting organization ofnationalpark or scenarios to compare someit may benecessary 1. are presented below. situation project activities. Someoftypical thatassumeabsenceofsuchscenarios withbaseline points ofviewincomparison orposterioristic past projectsfrom aprioristic There aneedto isoften evaluate future or INTRODUCTION Nature intheFuture (NF). Economic intheFuture activities (EF). NF and For example, EF plainly 006.06.2011 12:18:14 6 . 0 6 . 2 0

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3. Let othersituations. usconsidertwo problem discounting. ofcorrect today’s perception, value. So, here the arises apparently different current, normalized to same forest to beplanted in70years have Situations changes. of indemnificationsfrom initiators ofsuch to estimate sizescase, itmay benecessary such resources this In orflowsreduction. or to occurrence ofapredicted trend of ofecosystem origin products andservices stocks ofresources orsteady streams of unforeseen) thathave ledto decrease in thatresultedactivities inoutcomes (often an investment projectorwitheconomic situation isassociated withrealization of 4. such measures. thatassumes absenceof baseline scenario of suchresources witha incomparison of apredictabletrend inincrease ofstocks useful for humanbeingsorto theoccurrence ofecosystem origin of resources andservices which hasledto increase ofsteady streams out, haveengineering actions beencarried when nature protection orenvironmental normal economic development.normal Pearce etal. of planningormay besimplywithacourse of (namely –to abate) withincrease inhorizon of therate ofsocialdiscountingto change withthetendency This paperisnotconcerned not rise.) problem discounting does ofthecorrect stocksmaterial ofecosystem origin, the EP oftypes notice thatwhenactions to isimportant mentionedtypes.(It two of these which are affected bytheactivity for thenaturalgoodsofdifferent types) ratesecosystem origin (orofasetvarious of therate ofdiscountingfor the goodsof PROBLEM: STARTING POSITIONS ANALYSISTHEORETICAL OF THE 4 7 Nature in the Past (NP) lead to a simple lump-sum changeof leadto asimplelump-sum Economic inthePast activities (EP) NP and EP also need selection alsoneedselection . This situationarises NP . This or conventional replaceable goods thatcan First, itisreasonable to assumethatfor planning horizon. year) willinevitablyleadto lossesinthenear (though possiblychanging from year to and anthropogenic origin discountingrate low andthesameforallgoods setting a mentioned intheIntroduction, For ofassessments any ofthetypes expanded, for anthropogenic goods). reproduction ofthesegoods(simplevs. third ofnatural character “technologies“ and, anthropogenic origin, first ecosystem goodsdiffer as, insuch aspects However, many paved of unlike parking, its alternative investment. reflect possiblespeedofthecapitalgainat is different from thecommercial rates that preferencesintertemporal which ofasociety the rate ofsocialdiscountingreflectspure isassumedthat It personal motor transport. as, for forimportance example, free parking of ecosystem origin have thesamesocial Pearce. This approach considersthatgoods discounting suggested originally byD. socialrate of usedistheso-called often At thepresent time, most theterm approaches to discounting. to identifypossiblesteps to develop further attention inthepast. This paperalsoattempts ecosystem goodswhichhave beenlacking highlight anumberofspecificfeatures of debatable. However, we hopethatitwill mayThis material seemasincomplete or situations.some typical to estimate discountingcomparators in addition,weanthropogenic tried origin. In from thatofsociallyconsumedgoods ofecosystem origin isdifferentand services discounting ofnon-replaceable products The goalofourpaperisto demonstrate that review ofsuchresearch approaches. [2003] andGroom etal. [2005]provide agood , intheabsenceoffull-value substitutes of , asaconsequence, inmechanisms for second , in conservative , inconservative ofnatural 006.06.2011 12:18:14 6

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4 8 consumption is consumed byanindividual, and their fixed consumption ofallgoods. Therewith, one level from oftotal satisfaction simultaneous setssomefixed thisfigure, In eachcurve presented onFig. 1. budget for othergoods) ofsomefixed good ofexpense spending theremaining part (and consumption andnon-consumption situation oftheindividualchoicebetween many basiclevel oneconomics, textbooks Let from awell-known usconsideratypical, underestimated. from is withfastfeedback, theprojects of financialassets, whichcanbereceived ofreinvestmentgoods, theopportunity ofdiscounted thetype concerning lowwithoutthedistinction compulsorily Second, whentherate ofdiscountingismade future. todayquantity ratherthaninsomeuncertain most likely, prefer to have someoftheir be produced onsustainablebasis, onewill, IN CAPABILITY OF REPRODUCTION DISCOUNTING FOR THE GOODS LIMITED NEED TO DECREASE THE RATE OF associated with consumption of the fixed chosen good in comparison with expenses on consumption consumption on expenses with comparison in good chosen fixed the of consumption with associated Fig. 1: The indifference curves graph, budgetary restrictions, and a consumer choice trajectory trajectory choice aconsumer and restrictions, budgetary graph, curves 1: indifference Fig. The goodisopposedto allothergoods measured by thesumof of others goods

curve in its arbitrary point characterizes the pointcharacterizes initsarbitrary curve these points. The slopeoftheindifference more complexconfiguration)connecting ofachoice canbealineof the trajectory ascending inclinedstraightline(generally ispresented onourdiagram byan trajectory levels ofthebudget. The consumerchoice represent realatvarious consumerselections level ofmaximallyaccessibleutility curves osculation pointsofthesestraightlinesto the levelsvarious ofaconsumptionbudget. The at restrictions lines display budgetary inclinedstraight money’s Descending worth. other goodsismeasured bytheir directly consumed unitsandthatconsumptionof of to thequantity directly proportional consumption ofanindividualproductare assumed thatthetotal expensesto maintain over amonth.For simplification, itmay be goods over for any timeinterval, example, chosen productandconsumptionofother to consumptionofsome choose between “moral”, andpossiblyother. The individualhas Expenses canbefinancial, temporal, physical, instrument for sorts. expensesofvarious asauniform measuring that moneyacts of expensesminimization. We consider a real byaspiration choiceisdetermined equal preference for theindividual, and onthediagramat any are fixed of curve money spentonthem.Any ofthepoints 006.06.2011 12:18:14 6 . 0 6 . 2 0

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along thesegment OA the pointofconsumerchoicemoves good,possible consumptionoftherestricted andachieves thegreatestthe generalutility ofexpendituresdistribution thatmaximizes value atwhichtheindividualchooses Until theconsumerbudgetreaches acritical the shapepresented onFig. 2. isnowtransformed approaching trajectory available for travel]). The consumerchoice [whenonlytheyarea numberofweekends [for apersonwithflexibleschedule]orby example, byanumberofdays inamonth per month(formaximal numberoftrips to naturegood istrips withrestricted Let usassumenow, that thefixed chosen the horizontal axis. relative valueofthegood represented on of anindifference showsamarginal curve unit ofthefixed chosengood. The backslope withconsumption ofa goods incomparison consumption ofanadditionalunitother themore valuabletocurve, theindividualis Specifically, thesteeper thebackslopeofa value ofanadditionalunitthefixed good. good and all other goods. In theory, i.e., theory,good andallothergoods.i.e., In associated withconsumptionofachosen oftheexpenses bytheparity is determined the relative valueoftheconsumedgoods trajectory. Therewith, inapointofchoice, 4 9 Fig. 2. The indifference curves graph and a consumer choice trajectory when consumption restric- consumption when trajectory choice aconsumer and graph curves indifference The 2. Fig. tions exist for a fixed chosen good (a case of a homothetic utility function) utility ahomothetic of (a case good chosen afixed for exist tions crit crit of thechoice horizontal half-lineA isforced to followchoice trajectory the levelcritical isexceeded, theconsumer units. Further,monetary whenthebudget ofthelimited goodexpressedprice in costs, bythe itisdetermined transactional in theabsenceoftime, “moral”, andother Cobb-Douglas type utility function utility type Cobb-Douglas of graphs ofequi-potential valuesofthe indifference through theassemblage curves 1995])therepresentation[Nicholson, of (see, economictextbooks forIn example, individually The case ofrestricted resources consumed The single consumer case grow.to tangent,starts indifference obliquity curve equal to thereciprocal ofthecrossed goodagainstallothergoods,restricted point, themarginal relative valueofthe consumption ofonegood, for example, constantfactor; non-dimensional popularasillustrative. Here,is very MANIFESTATION APPRAISAL OF THE DEGREE OF EFFECT U = K æ crit. L α A æ + M , andinachoice β L isthe K isa 006.06.2011 12:18:15 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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5 0 the formula (1)to value,above thecritical we cantransform and expenses, associated withitsrealization; goods estimated bymoney’s ofthe worth example, itistheconsumptionofallother consumption ofanothergood, inour to thenature; oftrips quantity optimization problem: the consumptionequals equals Assuming to asuburb acostoftrip zero. B While thebudgetisdoesnotexceed critical budget. to theincreasein directproportion ofthe budget:theincreasecritical ofthevalueis beginning from thepointofexcess over the of growth ofthelimited value product which evidentlyshowsthedependence If V Thereafter, realization. Let now will nowbeequalto nature inthepointofoptimum suburb marginal to the valueofanadditional.trip this problem willbe crit B = . = β B are thepower indicesgreater than crit

L pL p . / + M , andgeneralbudgetspentfor = max Δ B α β V α () , where L α+β M L / M M α p = = æ / æ L L L = M = L B

p m + B > – β + , thenthesolutionto p Δ

→ α− L , i.e., to thecostsofits L M p B max max

opt () αΔ æ isthebudgetexcess β max. = BpL crit . , L β = B L max . L max B , weatan arrive max B ,

() max , α+β αβ M . (1) isthe p . The α

progression: member alsogrows inageometrical The consumerbudgetofeachcommunity N community. Let usassumethatthenumber is shared among ofthisresourceThe annualproduction of with theannualproductivity reproducible, andnon-excludable, butrival) a renewable common-poolresource (i.e. modelofhow Let usconsideranelementary Here, shared members: amongthecommunity stage ofitspossiblemaximum,anditisequally common-pool resource hasalready reached the Let usalsoassumethata)consumptionofa progression M Then, for thetimemoment type: the Cobb-Douglas of function utility by thesametime-constant member community foris described every and thetotal consumptionofallothergoods the consumptionofaninvestigated resource from andb)generalindividualutility member; where size ofexpensesfor withdrawal or OF CONSUMERS RESOURCE AND A GROWING NUMBER THE CASE OF A COMMON-POOL ( j ( t t ) grows withtimeinageometrical ) = Vt =− L j α β p () j B is the index of a community individual is theindexofacommunity j ⎝⎠ ⎜⎟ ⎜⎟ ⎛⎞ ( ( t t Nv BN ) isthe ) – == 00 α β p BptLt j N ( ()() B t 11 0

( ) UKLM ( A t L )() () ) ( t γ+ +γ ) = 1 j ) = j j ( jjj ( -th community member’s-th community t A t γ− +γ =⋅ N ) = ), ( N t B t ) membersofalocal 0 0 A Lt t (1 + (1 + αβ j / () N ( t jj γ ν ), ) . ) t t . t . A : L pt unitsisused. j j ( () t ) = . (2) . A 006.06.2011 12:18:15 / 6 N . 0 ( 6 t . ), 2 0 1 1

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thesize of If of theresource. use resource unit,i.e., isthemarginal value consumption ofthelastcommon-pool becomes negligible with incomparison value willbecomeequalto (1+ factor reductionfor theresource marginal and theindividualcoefficientofdiscounting can betransformed to theform of ( seems to beequalapproximately to So, thecorresponding discountingfactor and non-excludable). providing areal publicgood(i.e. non-rival Let now The case ofreal publicgoods some proportion. community, or byseveral membersin onemember oftheeither bystrictly consumed competitively, i.e. onlyonce, marginalbecause thearising effect is for ofresources, acommon-pooltype to itsdisruptionisestimatedthe tendency resource oronreductionof functioning directed onimprovementthe actions of for thecasewhen marginal effect of of theeffect for inwhole thecommunity composing it,alsogive ustheappraisal inreferencefunction to individualutilities used usuallybydefault,ofapublicutility in theassumptionofsimpleadditivity, Let usnote thatformulas (2)and(3) The case ofacommon-pool resource inwhole community for asocial manifestation effect of degree The projects. conventional goodsinsocially-oriented 5 Nv BN γ 1 + 00 ν ()() ), where 11

Vt γ+ +γ L j A A () to be a productivity of a service ofaservice to beaproductivity t ≅ α β r BN is the 00 A p , thentheformula (1) j ( t ) isoreventually (1 + discounting rate for γ ) t æ (1 +v) γ ) • (1 + t , (3) r ν – ). Douglas type: Douglas oftheCobb- function by thesameutility member community fordescribed every all othergoods resource from theconsumptionofaninvestigated andb)thegeneralindividualutility member; where products to thefullextent: reasons), andallmembersconsumethese bynon-economic consumption isrestricted oftheir rise these products, butfurther to allowthemselves someamountof membersare enough rich community of admissiblemaximum(inotherwords, from floods)hasalready reached thestage visiting scenicplacesorenjoyingsafety of areal publicgood(somethinglike Furthermore, letassumethata)consumption If thesize of If individual marginal valueoftheresource. of thelastunitpublicresource, thatis, the member’s size ofexpensesfor consumption the form of then theformula (4)may betransformed to negligible with incomparison Once again B Then for thetimemoment geometrical progression:geometrical memberalsogrowsof eachcommunity ina Let usalsoassumethattheconsumerbudget ( t ) – p

Vt j =− j ( is the index of a community individual is theindexofacommunity t L ) j α β –p () L ⎝⎠ ⎜⎟ ⎛⎞ and thetotal consumptionof B == i ( 0 t p p ) B α β () j L

j (t) 1 UKLM ( ( j t t A ( BptA +λ ) = ) isthe t M jjj isoreventually becomes ), A 0 =⋅ )()() j ( is time-constant andis is time-constant 1 t B t ) = γ− +γ 0 (1 + αβ pt A A t j , () γ j t -th community -th community ) : . L t . j j ( t ) =

B 0 A () , 1 A M +γ j ( t ) = t 006.06.2011 12:18:15 6 , . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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5 2 indemnifications isconsidered): such projects(thecaseof pure financial proprietors orusersfrom investors in of settlementpayments to ecosystems’ conditions, we offer thefollowing formula thatworsenof projects environment realizationnatural ecosystems lossesduring emphasize theneedofcompensationsfor different ofdiscounting rates andto kinds between statements aboutthedistinction elaborationonthe order toIn further environment conditions Consideration forprojects thatworsen conventional ones. assessment ofthesegoodsrelatively to the instead oftheaverage valuesisvalidfor the theconsiderationofmarginal,exactly andimprove theirrenewal.support Therefore, ecosystem andfunctions,as production protection projectsnotsomuchcreate remark here isthatnature The important remarkImportant consumption. the rate ofgrowth ofthetotal public projectsminus goods insocially-oriented is, thediscountingrate for conventional discounting rate isnear corresponds to ratio, thelowering andthe progression members grows inageometrical as ~(1+ now thesumofindividualvalues, grows the total publicmarginal value, whichis But, again,ifthenumber projects. in socially-oriented the discountingrate for conventional goods discounting rate willbenear be (1+ for thepublicresource marginal valuewill and theratioto lower thediscountingfactor γ ). Sothecorresponding individual γ ) t

Vt • L N (1 + j () ( t ) = ≅ ν α β N ) t , and(1+ 0 B (1 + A 0 (1 + N r ( ν –( t ) ) of community ) ofcommunity t r γ , – ) t , γ γ γ + , where ) t • ν (1 + ), that r ν is ) t

payment project realization, attheendofwhich Here payment, 1/(1+ realization, T withtheprojectrealization.connected the positiveeffects andnegative external is acurrent estimationofthedifference of expressed inunitfraction. natural ecosystems.reduction ofdisturbed ofdestroyed productivity plusproductivity Δ value ofcurrent existence, andbequestvalue. components ofthetotal value:optionvalue, resources, andalsowithchangesin ofvaluesdestroyedrecycling natural associated withnon-recurrent incomplete stocks”. ofthelosses These are allkinds θ multiplier for financialindemnifications, and this area, firstofall, we note thenecessity for ofperspectives researchSpeaking in quality. from thatworsen environment theactivities andforactivities calculation ofcompensations assessmentofnature conservation efficiency ecosystems isusefulbothfor economic of services production andnon-material The ideaofspecialdiscountrates for discounting rates. corresponding between distinction consumption leadto anaturallyoccurring replacement oftheir andpubliccharacter of ecosystem productionandservices ecosystems’ specificpotential, difficulty ofnatural andcontinuity economic activities Continuous growth ofhuman ofproductivity discussions presented above is: fromThe mainconclusionderived the into accounttheinflation. CONCLUSIONS istheplanneddurationofproject isthe F are lossesin “ecological stream”, i.e., annual Δ discountingrate for ecosystem goods

S ∑ i financial − T 0 P are thelossesof “environmental PSEx i ismade, i i /1 is thenumberofyear ofthe () θΔ++ + +θ=Δ θ rate of discounting, taking rate ofdiscounting, taking ) i isthe i P 0 is the project starting istheprojectstarting i -th year discounting Ex Δ η F (“externalities”) η . isthe 006.06.2011 12:18:16 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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2. Nicholson Nicholson W. BasicPrinciples andExtensions. 6 (1995)Microeconomic Theory: 2. P., Groom, B., C.,Koundouri, Hepburn, Pearce, D. discountrates: (2005)Declining The long 1. consideration of risks ofa projectfailureconsideration ofrisks in conventional investment projects, the of suchresearch, we shouldmentionthat development. As aninitialframeposition directionofalso becometheimportant Assessments ofinvestment may risks these functions. ecosystems asoneoftheparameters for ofnaturalproduction andservices ofconsumedinclusion ofthequantity with functions public (ifexist)utility dependences for individualand typical andofapproaching functionalcurves of specificationreal indifference . Pearce, D., P. Groom, B., C.,Koundouri, Hepburn, (2003) Valuing thefuture: Recentadvances 3. REFERENCES 5 3 services into economic relations. Izvestiya RAN,ser. into economicrelations. Izvestiya services Geogr. M.,2009,No4,pp. 78–85. and naturalresources. M., VINITI, 2007,No5,pp. ofenvironmental 44–51;Integration pp. 54–66;Naturalecosystems asaneconomic “green plant”. Problems oftheenvironment protection investments. Sumy, ofeconomicregulation. Mechanisms Ukraine, 2006,No1, and the short ofit.Environmental andResourceand theshort Economics, 32(4),pp. 445–493. in socialdiscounting. World Economics, 4(2),pp. 121–141. Press.Dryden Alexey A.Kotko Main publications: Main To themethodologyofevaluatingnature ofvalue,resources, anddiscounting. theory ecosystem services, Humanities. The focus ofhisresearch liesonrenewable and asassociate professor in RussianState for University SciencesofMSU asengineerworks intheMuseumofEarth Faculty State University. ofEconomicsMoscow Nowhe ofGeographyInstitute RASandwasdefended in2007atthe PhD thesisonEnvironmental atthe Economicswaswritten SchoolofEconomicsState in1998.His University the Higher obtained theMaster’s degree attheFaculty ofEconomics in was born inMoscow,was born Russia in1957.He resulting effect isnecessary. methods for quantitative estimationof discounting rates. of Development spatial differentiation incorresponding their self-regeneration shouldleadto a the ecosystems’ lossesandintimesof Therefore, of intherisks distinctions values produced bytheecosystems. of discountingthecorresponding most possibly, shoulddecrease therates ofirreversiblerisks ecosystems’ losses, projects andaffecting ecology, On thecontrary, innature protection discounting rates for anticipated values. leadsto increaseor profits inthe cutshort

th Ed., The 006.06.2011 12:18:16 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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5 4 the spring flooding causedbysnowmelting,the spring evenly through distributed theyear. During by 15–20%.However, thisvolume willnotbe annual water flowofthe Volga to increase may cause thevolumewarming ofthe Sea anditswatershed area. This climate several decadesintheregion oftheCaspian 4 to 8°C[IPCC, thenearest 2001]during mean annualairtemperatures by may rise Meteorological Organization predictthat Various ofthe scenarios Worldwide distribution. ecological factors, climate change, sturgeon Sea, aquaticecosystems stability, hydro- in the Volga region. may includeimprovement ofexisting dams ofclimate change.impacts Suchmeasures develop strategies for mitigationofnegative processes andwinter regime to ofreservoirs ecosystemis essentialto modelriparian affected bynaturalconditions.primarily It CaspianSeais intheNorthern stability appearsthatecosystem been determined. It CaspianSeaecosystems have the Northern of ofstability hydro-ecological factors Main Worldwide Meteorological Organization. according ofthe to thedatascenarios ecosystems resulting from climate change of changesinthe Volga-Caspian aquatic This paperdiscusses 1 Natalia N.Mitina * str.,Gubkin 3,119991, Tel. +74991357190. KEY WORDS: ABSTRACT THEIR PROTECTION ECOSYSTEMS STABILITY IN DESIGNING OF THE VOLGA-CASPIANAQUATIC OF HYDRO-ECOLOGICAL FACTORS DETERMINATION Water Problems oftheRussianAcademy Institute ofSciences, Moscow, Russia; Corresponding author

Volga River, theCaspian 1

*, Boris M.Malashenkov*, Boris possible consequences , e-mail: [email protected] , e-mail: Therefore, it is very important to work-out a toTherefore, work-out important itisvery causing oxygen deficitandmassive fishkill. ofthereservoirs into thedeepchannelpart territories, includingthewetland areas, flows meters. The water from theshallowfloodplain Volga River, thewater drop reaches six reservoir, onthe reservoir theuppermost are drawn down.For example, in Ivankovo through floods, thespring thereservoirs freezenavigation endsandwaterways and of asignificant numberofswamps. After isthepresence intheirbedsreservoirs featurecharacteristic oftheUpper Volga accordingfact, to E.V. [1971]the Meyerner sensitive to climate fluctuations. In be very Upper Volga hasvastwetland areas thatmay the aquaticfloraandfauna. The region ofthe areas. This situationmay negatively influence water tableandleadto expansionofswamp theground whichmay rise underflooding, willwidenthezones ofInundation processes inundation. may causeserious precipitation andchangesinsnow melting and temperature together withgreater rise increase intheflowdueto snowmelting thearea oftheUpper In Volga (Fig. 1.), may beregion specific. aquatic ecosystems causingchangesthat et al., 1990]. These processes willinfluence compared to thecurrent values[Kuchment the volume offlowmay decrease by20% today, thesummerrainfloods, whileduring the volume offlowmay be40%higherthan 1 006.06.2011 12:18:16 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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problems may intensify andnewproblems the regionIn oftheLower Volga, existing changing climate. under ofriverwater quality modeling efforts water pollution.However, there isalackof et. al., 2001]whichultimately leadsto river oftheyear [Ivanov, periods andwarm dry of dissolved the oxygen, especiallyduring ammonium levels whiledecreasing thelevel temperature may increase nitrogen and the Middle Volga region, River higher water 1996]. Someresearchers indicate thatin ontheaquaticecosystems [IPCC,impact also affected byclimate changeandbyits may andwater beBiodiversity quality hydro-meteorological conditions. swampingand possibleriparian considering proper drawdown regime for thereservoirs 5 5 Fig. 1. Change in average annual runoff by 2050 in mm yr temperature (isolines) in °C for the Volga River basin (according to [IPCC, 2001]) [IPCC, to (according basin River Volga the for °C in (isolines) temperature circulation processes withintheAtlantic- regime are bytheglobalmacro- determined Parameters oftheCaspian Seahydrologic species offish. promote expansionofmore heat-loving fisheries, andalter spawning ofexistingand may influencenavigation regime, endanger change. Changesinthelevel ofinnerwaters thanconsequencesofclimate important are factors these two considered more somecountries, economic development. In withpopulationgrowthdemand rises and consumption [Ivanov, et.al., 2001]aswater may leadto additionalincrease inwater from droughts even now. Climate change for areas, water inirrigated whichsuffer summermay causeagreaterduring demand flow increase anddecrease inthesurface may arise. Thus, theprojected temperature –1 and the change of annual mean 006.06.2011 12:18:16 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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5 6 At thesametime, mouthsare theriver systemsoccupied bytheriver andseas. ecological significance for large areas of theseecosystems andhave important mouths thatplay majorrole indevelopment oftheriver promote highbio-productivity rivers, andwell-heated shallow-waters regime, brought biogenmaterial bythe ecosystems.marine Specialhydro-chemical these complexes are theuniquefreshwater- sediments. componentsof The important system ofcurrents, andbydynamicsof fresh waters, andmarine bycomplicated which formation isinfluencedbymixingof that have landscapestructure characteristic mouth areas represent naturalcomplexes Sea dueto theriver mouthlocation.River Caspian intheNorthern pollution factor The Volga runoffisthemostimportant River Caspian Seasurface. utilization andincrease inoilpollutionofthe inevitably intensify withgrowth ofresources metalpollution. heavy will This impact is mostlyassociated withhydrocarbon and Anthropogenic intheCaspianSea impact the CaspianSeaecosystems. waters, whichmay endanger polluted surface convection willpromote thelower delusionof as well oftheautumn-winter asweakening intensification ofthesummerthermocline ofaquasi-homogeneouslayer and thickness waters may beanticipated. inthe Reduction possibly, free hydrogen sulfideinthedeep-sea emergence ofthereduced form ofsulfurand, nearest years, complete oxygen depletion, worsen the thedeepstrataventilation. Over stratum temperature placeandwill willtake sea andincreasein salinity thesurface 27,44 mby2013.Atthesametime, decrease toexpected stabilize attheaverage of mark and the air temperatures, theinflowoffresh waters, 15 years) dueto theincrease intheaverage recent years (by0,8–1,0mover thelast10to Caspian Sealevel thathasbeenincreasing in etal.,Marcov processes 2001]. [Ivanov The 2015 usingastatisticmodelofthelinear the CaspianSeahasbeenprojected through European sector. The hydrological regime of increase inthewinters’ is severity the distribution ofthe the distribution of anthropogenic load” notsosignificant for to escapefrom thisregion the makes “factor to identifythepollutedthe ability zone and ispossiblethat oil pollutionisstillmosaic. It the polluted zone, whichispossibleasthe fish canidentifythedangerandescapefrom [1971], even volleys during ofsewage, some the CaspianSea.According to A.Poddubny of part aquatic ecosystems ofthenorthern of also assumedto stability characterize of conditions thatprovide for stableexistence strong anthropogenic impact. Therefore, Sea. These fishare currently experiencing are attheuppertrophic level oftheCaspian are long-lived extremely commercial fishthat biocenosis. Sturgeon species( fish are alsofavorable, asarule, to theentire conditions favorable for valuablecommercial hydrobiology academicianS.A.Zernov [1949], According to thefounder ofthemodern 1975;Reimers,in origin [Odum, 1990]. from ofnewelementsdifferent incorporation compensating for consequences thatarise and individual parameters andproperties under anthropogenic loadbychanging set ofcomponentsandtheirinterworking, ecosystem to maintainitsstructure, i.e., a term “stability” ofthe includestheability environmental protection measures. The Caspian ecosystems inorder to design ofthemostproductive Northern impact to anthropogenic ofstability factors wasto ofthiswork define The purpose adjacent rivermouthareas. to andpollutionofthe thedeterioration This exploitationundoubtedly contributes targets for intensive exploitation. primary the shelfoilfields, inparticular, are the natural resources oftheseashallowsand ecosystems ofthemouthareas. Besides, lead to a noticeabledegradation ofthe can ontherunoffandwater quality impact absent, theconsequencesofanthropogenic areseacoasts where activities industrial Even intheregions ofsparselypopulated to anthropogenic changesintherunoff. ontheriverbasinsand,impacts firstofall, especially sensibleto anthropogenic Acipenserida over itsentire life cycle Acipenseridae. Acipenseridae 006.06.2011 12:18:18 6

. are 0 6 . 2 ) 0 1 1

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biomass (mg/m scores);with numeric Х3 – NO harshandmildwinters enteredof iceduring (specifically,ice cover distribution thickness February (°С);Х2– during the water surface are: X1–average temperature long-term of features. functional principal These variables theecosystemcharacterize according to its several that mainhydro-ecological variables results oftheseanalyseswere usedto select analyzed usingapaircorrelation method. The biological whichhave characteristics, been geographical, hydro-chemical, hydro- data on76parameters, includingphysical- CaspianSea),we received in theNorthern location (we studied260locationpoints oftheCaspianSea.For part each northern of the distribution thatinfluencehydro-ecological factors were to selected studyandassessprincipal to genera,i.e., two population intheCaspianSea,whichbelong Six speciesandonesubspeciesofsturgeon – biomassofzoobentos (g/m per year (MJ/m X6–radiationbalance оо) inthewater body; NO (mkg surface in the water body; X13–average annual in thewater body; average annual content ofphenols(mg/l) m – total zooplankton biomass (g/ X9 (km); distance from the Volga-Caspian maincanal X5–average ( annualsalinity sea surface; 5 7 nhooei od12,7 Anthropogenic load 15,5 Wintering/post-wintering aua odtos39,7 Natural conditions 2 ) intheCaspianSea;X10–phytoplankton Hydro-ecological factors factors 3 2 ) intheCaspianSea;X11 ); X7–depth,(m);X8 2 /l); Х4–O Huso Acipenseridae Factor load, and 2 % (mg/l)onthe Table 1. Factors selected for analysis for Table selected 1. Factors 2 onthesea 2 Acipenser ); X12– in the Variables that have load on the factor load onthefactor Х13 (0,72) Х12 (–0,81) Х8 (–0,70) Х9 (0,69) Х7 (0,65) Х2 (–0,67) Х1 (0,85) Х11 (0,70) Х10 (–0,61) Х6 (0,71) Х5 (0,79) Х4 (–0,63) Х3 (–0,74) о ( r / , > 0,6) of the Caspian Sea on the distribution of of theCaspianSeaon distribution climatic, biotic, andfood supplyproperties the influenceofhydro-chemical, natural- we cansay characterizes thatthisfactor the parameters includedinto thisfactor, Taking into considerationthemeaningof Х11 have thehighestloadonfactor. variables. Variables Х3,Х4,Х5,Х6, Х10,and –itdefines39.7%of the matrix in thefactor 1 hasthegreatest valueofthetotal dispersion andhasitsownmeaning.some factor Factor Each group ofparameters to contributes 1). the loads(Table integral according hydro-ecological factors to (1to 13)canbecombinedintovariables three The analysisshowed thatallsignificant ofthemaincomponents. individual variables for more accurate estimationoftheloads three rotations. The rotations were performed loadswerefinal factor received intheresult of components.method ofprinciple Then, the three received commonfactors usingthe assigned loadsof13parameters factor on У=catch of variable analyses,using factor where thedependent theintegralcharacterize state ofecosystems processed that theobtainedbasicvariables of onthesurvival factors assess theinfluenceofabioticenvironmental on five sturgeonorder speciescatch. to In X14–average annualdata the water body; ofoilhydrocarbonsdistribution (mg/l)in Northern CaspianSea Northern of pollutantsinthewater bodyofthe Volga fl River owontheinfl uxandspread inflShows thedetermining uenceofthe sturgeon fi thewinter. shduring of zooplankton of onthedistribution pits),icecover,wintering andabundance temperature, drops ofdepth(presence of Enables assessmentoftheinfl uenceof ofsturgeondistribution fi sh supply features oftheCaspianSeaon chemical, biotic, natural-climatic, andfood theinflCharacterizes uenceof hydro- Factor characteristics Acipenseridae. Acipenseridae, We We we we 006.06.2011 12:18:19 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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5 8 . Kuchment,L.S., Motovilov, U.G., andNazarov, N.A.(1990) ofthehydrologicVulnerability 2. Ivanov, V. P., Vasilev, A.S.,Kosarev, D.N., A.N.,Katunin, Sapozhnikov, V.V., Tuzhilin1. V. S.,Beljaeva, Northern CaspianSea. Northern of concentrationsthesesubstancesinthe accompanied byasimilartrend inchanges Volga each specificyear during are River of oilhydrocarbons andphenolsinthe synchronized. Fluctuations inconcentrations CaspianSeaareVolga andtheNorthern dynamics ofoilhydrocarbon content inthe as well. Ourstudiesshowthattheannual theinfluenceof characterize Volga flow in thewater body, that but thevariables ofoilandphenols distribution characterize that includesnotonly variables This factor be definedas “anthropogenic load” factor. indicatesand Х13onthisfactor thatitcould (r>0,7)ofparameters Х8,Х12, of variables is12,7%. matrix factor The maximumload factor. inputto thetotal dispersioninthe Its Factor 3represents thethird significant for feeding thenext period. conditions offormation ofthefood supply the CaspianSeawater aswell asthe the seasonalmigration ofsturgeon in sturgeon winter. during definesThis factor zooplankton of onthedistribution andabundanceofcover distribution, depth (presence pits),ice ofwintering the influenceoftemperature, drops of wintering” factor. evaluatesThis factor enabled usto defineitas “wintering/post- and Х9have thehighestsignificance which 1). dispersion (Table Variables Х1,Х2,Х7, itdefines15,5%ofthetotalimportance; Factor 2hastheseconddegree of “natural conditions”. Acipenseridae. REFERENCES systems. M. Nauka, 144p.systems. M.Nauka, Publishing House, p. Russian). 481–485.(In KaspNiRh 2001). –Astrakhan: resources utilization.//Fisheries research intheCaspianSea.(Resultsofresearch in work V. P.P. N.,Geraskin (2001) The CaspianSeaecosystem changeunderintensification of We as definedthisfactor

(In Russian). (In 09-05-00893-а. Foundation for BasicResearch, This research wasfundedbytheRussian composition andtheirhealthstability. may leadto changesinaquaticecosystem conditionswhich change onsub-aquatic to modeltheinfluenceofclimate important isalsochanges intheecosystems. It change) canleadto themostsignificant conditions intheregion (includingclimate that theprocess ofdynamics natural Sea isthe “natural conditions” factor. means It Caspian intheNorthern ecosystem stability ofThe mainhydro-ecological factor • • • tocontribute development ofsuchpolicies: climate change. The following measures may ispossibleto mitigate of negative impact It ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS CONCLUSIONS environment. ontheCaspianSeacaused impact urgent measures for reductionofman- spawning areas; waste) as well asfor maintenance of industrial, municipal, andagricultural for (dilutionof enhancingwater quality water resources for consumption and ofthat are essentialfor conservation andLowerMiddle Volga regions River reconstruction ofexistingdamsinthe regionRiver underclimate change; drawdownreservoirs intheUpper Volga swamping andwinter regime ofthe modeling theprocesses ofriparian

project 006.06.2011 12:18:19 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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. Meyerner, E.V. (1971) Winter andthe seasonoxygen regime reservoir oftheIvankovo 3. . Zernov, S.A.(1949)Generalhydrobiology. Moscow-Leningrad, State Publisher ofBiological 8. Reimers, N.F. (1990)Nature AGlossary. M.Mysl. 637p. Russian). Management: (In 7. Poddubny A.G.(1971)Environmental Topography ofFish Populations inReservoirs, 6. Climate Change1996: The ScienceofClimate Change. of Contribution GroupWorking IIto 5. of AContribution Climate Change2001:SynthesisReport. GroupsWorking I,II,andIIIto 4. 5 9 impact Izvestia RAN, Series Geography, RAN,Series Izvestia 2008,№3.(inRussian). impact oftheFar landscapestability the submarine EastSouthregion undertheanthropogenic Kuibyshev bookpublishinghouse, p. 42–46. withannualdifferences Canalinconnection Moscow intheiroperation// Volga-1. and Medical Literature.and Medical 718p. Russian). (In Russian). Russia,311p(In Leningrad: Nauka, Press. Cambridge. 586p. Panel oftheInt. ofClimatethe SecondAssesment Change. University Report Cambridge andNew Kingdom, York, NY, USA,398p. R.T. andtheCore Writing Team Press, (eds.)]. University Cambridge Cambridge, United the Panel oftheIntegovernmental Third Assessment onClimate Report Change[Watson, Natalia N.Mitina Boris M.Malashenkov Boris Geography, N.N.Estimationof 2007,№5.(inRussian.);Mitina RAN, Series Geography,RAN, Series 2006,№2(inRussian). oftheOffshoremonitoring Petroleum Structures//Izvestia B.M. FeasibilityMalashenkov studiesofgeo-ecological Geography,RAN, Series N.N., 2007,№5.(inRussian.);Mitina ofwater ecosystemsof stability oftheCaspianSea.Izvestia B.M. Criteria N.N.,Malashenkov publications:Mitina Main ecology.ecology andmarine Problems RAS. The focus ofhisresearch isinthearea ofhydro- of PhD in2008.Since2003,heisscientistoftheInstitute Water Geography Faculty, andgraduated in2003.Hereceived his State Regional1980. HestudiedatMoscow University, of water ecosystems of the Caspian Sea. Izvestia RAN, Series RAN,Series of water ecosystems oftheCaspianSea.Izvestia B.M. ofstability Criteria N.N.,Malashenkov (in Russian.);Mitina 2005,200p. shallow-water landscapes.sub-aquatic M.:Nauka, N.N.Geoecological Investigation of publications:Mitina Main hydro-ecology. research landscapesand marine isinthearea ofsub-aquatic of of theInstitute Water Problems RAS. The focus ofher of SciencesDegree in2005.Since1996,sheisseniorscientist graduated in1977.Shereceived herPhD in1994andDoctor State University,studied atMoscow Geography Faculty, and

was born inMoscow, wasborn Russia in1954.She (In Russian). (In was born in Moscow region, inMoscow wasborn Russiain 006.06.2011 12:18:19 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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6 0 infrastructure and transportation grids. andtransportation infrastructure technologies andenergy, mobility, inurban andallowforsectors real innovationin both theproductionandconsumption changes have to beintroduced thataffect be achieved? Obviously, quite fundamental motto oftheday. Buthowcanthisgoal “inclusive green growth” hasbecomethe the effects ofclimate change. Therefore, stable economicgrowth withmitigating Goals through Development the Millenium eradicationandattaining harmonize poverty The challengefor years isto thenext in GDPandGHGemissionsterms. rapid andunprecedented growth rates, both for emerging economieswiththeirvery true without delays, thatisparticularly afact mitigation measures have to beundertaken ambitious and itsprojected impacts,very width andscaleoftheclimate problematique economic instruments. Yet, given theband- mitigation,adaptation andsocio- between have to establishanoptimalinterplay Responses to theclimate changechallenge entered center stageofthepublicdiscourse. economic andtechnological have aspects nature oftheproblem, thesocial, behavioral, centeredand society understandingofthe ofclimate changetoaspects amore human andassessingthebio-physical observing from gradually shifting and decision-makers making. With thefocus ofbothresearchers prerogativeadaptation isakey for policy- effective strategies for both mitigationand integrated assessmenttools with risk of globalclimate change, combining more exposedandvulnerableto theeffects thatisbecomingmore aworld andIn [email protected] University ofCologne andBeijingNormalUniversity; Tel.: +491714133429;E-mail: Professor, ChiefScience andPolicy Advisor, Forum, GlobalRisk Davos, Switzerland; Andreas Rechkemmer ABSTRACT AND SOCIETY MITIGATION – POLICY, TECHNOLOGY, SUSTAINING CLIMATE CHANGE be considered more generic and academic in its focus. its in academic and generic more considered be can version this context, Asian an in aspects practice financing development and policy on focuses study ADB the (ADB). While Bank Development Asian the for prepared was that astudy of innovations inclusive green growth, sociallearning, strategies, Goals, Development Millenium andbehavioral change.social learning instruments inalarger of societalcontext policies, incentive schemesandeconomic economieswillhave to embed low-carbon and showsthattransitionsto green and strategies, especiallyinthearea ofmitigation, societal nature ofclimate changeresponse This paperillustrates thedeepsocialand 1 represents theclassicconceptualmatrix andChang[2010]) Martens (after The chart andChang, 2010]. discourse [Martens have entered center stageinthepublic climate changeanditssocietaldimensions of thesocialandbehavioralIndeed, aspects rather thanjusta “natural” orbiophysical one. and more asocialandsocietalparadigm adverse effects onpeopleisbecomingmore processes. Ultimately, climate changeandits to adaptive andpolicy-making governance assessment tools withanadvancedapproach ofcombiningintegratedrequire risk theart intheyears to come, andwill policy-makers challengeforbecome akey societiesand large scaleswill mitigation measures atvery with highlyeffective adaptation and assessments vulnerability state-of-the-art designed processesIntelligently oflinking INTRODUCTION KEY WORDS:

This paper represents a modified and abbreviated version version abbreviated and amodified represents paper This climate change, mitigation 1 006.06.2011 12:18:19 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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(e.g. by changing compositionof thesectoral Chang [2010]write: “Exposure canbereduced usually target and oneofthesethree. Martens to to reduce climate vulnerability change capacity. Oursocieties’ responses aiming policy composed ofexposure, and adaptive sensitivity asbeing our understandingofvulnerability and extremes’. IPCC leadauthorshave coined climate change, includingclimate variability or unableto copewith,adverse effects of degree to whichasystem issusceptibleto, (TAR) as in2001definedvulnerability ‘the inits Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report Panel Intergovernmental The onClimate adaptation andmitigationtogether. problematique andalsoholdvulnerability, dynamics constitute theclimate change Socialandsocietaland theirinteraction. and societalnature ofthissetphenomena nexus andillustrates thepredominantly social of thevulnerability-adaptation-mitigation 6 1 Figure 1. research framework The in analytical the context for vulnerability–adaptation–mitigation of climate change good andeffective asmuch astheyoperate including inadaptationregimes. They are as roleplaying inany akey climate regime, the dynamicsofinclusive green growth are economies andbusinesses, andultimately for both. Technological innovation,greening strategies, essentiallyusingthesametoolkit interplay mitigation andadaptation between have to striveabalanceandharmonious responses to climatepolicy changealways and Chang, 2010]. Therefore, effective social capital, tools andgovernance [Martens aseconomy,factors technology, humanand dynamics mostlyexpressed bydevisingsuch interplay mitigationandadaptation between ecological system dependsontheeffective However, ofasocial- theadaptive capacity plans).” contingency making canbeincreasedadaptive (e.g. capacity by operationaladjustments),andthe by making canbereducedthe economy), (e.g. sensitivity 2009 etal. Source: adapted from Martens 006.06.2011 12:18:19 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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6 2 the day, buthoware theseconcepts atall and “inclusive growth” of are thebuzzwords ofgrowth. this trajectory “Green growth” which isstilllargely coupledwithprecisely mitigating theeffects ofclimate change, the MDGsthrough economicgrowth with eradication andprogress toward achieving emerging countries, isto balancepoverty in particularly of development trajectories nature anddynamic particular given thevery countries. The challengeintheyears to come, the rapidlyemerging anddeveloping Asian andgreenintensity growth, especiallyin technology andenergy sectors, lowcarbon strategies toward sustainablechangesinthe whenidentifyingambitious importance willbeofcritical social andsocietalfactors are paying dueattention correct, to the response strategies. theseassumptions If social andsocietalnature ofclimate change thedeep Such findingsillustrate andunderline considered analtruisticresponse bysociety”. interests offuture generationsand...canbe meansattachingvaluetothe longterm, the targeting beinganaction Mitigation, action... stimulate climate individualandcollective and awareness-raising canbeusefultools to to changeiscritical. Information of society Chang write: willingness andcapacity “The and less effective Martens trajectories. into thewrong direction,i.e. onpresumably to ortechnology lead islikely impacts, policy cluster related factors, of whetherinterms societal roots ofany oftheclimate change social andsocietalsphere. Negligenceofthe on thesystem-inherent dynamicofthe sustainable development affairs should be sustainable development affairsshouldbe a result, theconceptandvision thatglobal tarcollective it doesnotforesee any peakyear orany 16) finallyendorsedthe2°Cgoal. However, (UNFCCCsummit inCancun,Mexico COP binding protocol. The recent climate it sofarhasnotresulted inanewlegally- provide guidancefor thefuture. However, out, theUNFCCC process to isexpected emission reductiongoalsandpolicies, runs As theKyoto Protocol, global whichgoverns in nature. enoughconsiderasmerelyoften technical and socialforces behindphenomenathatwe on thesometimeshiddenorunseenhuman whichaimstofocus shedlight ofthisarticle, are the dynamics andtheirinter-linkages behavior through sociallearning. These attitudesand change culturalconstructs, ofhumansandsocietiesto upon theability which have societalconnotationsanddraw technological innovation andefficiency, allof frameworks, economicincentives,policy largely build onconvergence between The dynamicsatplay inthismatrix thosegoalswillnotbereached.factors human,socialandsocietal to theunderlying and adaptation. Without paying dueattention assessment,mitigation andrisk vulnerability with integrating policy that integration iskey: answer to thisquestion.However, itisobvious to become real? Clearly, there isnosimple THE GOVERNANCE CHALLENGE get for cuttingemissions. As Source: ADB 006.06.2011 12:18:20 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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not onlyabouttheenvironment. For instance, it human security. Climate change is, ofcourse, agenda withthoseondevelopment and We willhave to “re-marry” theclimate change inseparate fora. markets, new carbon on technology transfer, oronthecreation of ofnationaladaptationpolicies, harmonization of financialsubsidiesorcompensation,onthe yield to striveglobalagreements onquestions the mostcontroversial issuesand, for instance, therefore befruitfulto disentanglesomeof almost incomprehensible complexity. may It is quite convoluted andhas reached astate of realize thattheglobalclimate changeagenda to itisimportant wide. thesametoken, By world- efforts to advancesolution-oriented andhave potential arestakeholders necessary of andavariety makers policy talks between dismissed. Especiallyatregional scale, intense results andshouldtherefore notbegenerally “coalitions ofthewilling” couldleadto partial countries, andtheformation ofso-called developedG-20, orbetween anddeveloping in smallercircles, for instancewithinthe global breakthrough, additionalnegotiations theabsenceofa societal acceptance?In technological solutionsandtheirsocial the potential androles for technical and of globalclimate negotiations? What are outside theroutines andpath-dependencies tackled? What are promising strategies well threats stillbemetand andadverse impacts How canglobalclimate change, itsmanifold theminasatisfyingmanner: answering adaptation policieswilllargely dependon seem prudent,andeffective mitigationand At thisjuncture, thefollowing questions politicsinsmaller,world exclusive circles. replaced bya “Club Governance” mode, i.e. andgraduallyface anewparadigm be shift and notionofGlobalGovernancecouldwell they are willingto cutemissions. The concept on theirown,orinsmallgroups, byhowmuch politics, orwhethernationstates willdecide future has ameaningful inglobalclimate decision-making inter-governmental driven unclear whethertheapproach ofconsensus seems basisisstillunderthreat.international It addressed primordiallyandtruly onacollective 6 3 of 450ppmCO concentrations canbestabilized atthelevel that even ifglobalgreen housegas(GHG) sciencesuggests Recent leading-edge and resources ontheother. technologicalrapid development skills ofkey related dynamicsontheonehandside, and given itsuniquegrowth rates andcarbon responsibility,are Asia carrying inparticular mitigation regimes, thegeographical regions of interms the climate changecrisis, particular global approach to effective managementof theabsenceofatrulyfunctional In action. systemsgovernance political andcollective much neededatthelevel ofglobalandregional effectively. Therefore, anintegral approach is we failto mitigate andadaptto climate change Moreover, derailmentoftheMDGsif we risk Goals(MDGs). Development the Millennium severely theachievement undermines of and humansecurity. Climate changethus costs for prosperity, economicdevelopment indeveloping countries. particularly This means in growing humanandsocialvulnerability, onhumanwellbeing,with directimpact and results inthedegradation ofecosystem services 400 ppmCO 2009]. What boththe450ppm and the capturecarbon andstorage (CCS)” [Sterk, and by combiningtheuseofbio-energy end ofthecentury, whichcouldbeachieved negative emissionswould berequired bythe to befeasible,scenario mostprobably CO to lessthan30%,stabilizationat400ppm suchprobabilityistotarget. bedecreased If thegloballyrecognizedof surpassing 2°C still have to dealwithaca.50%chance ambitous mitigationefforts,we will of very policy makers but also society at large. It atlarge. butalsosociety It makers policy challengefor a decadeposesanenormous would have to becomeeffective inlessthan all netemitters isakey. thatthisdeal The fact bybasically implying reliable action collective areality,scenario their emissionsbythattime. To this make significant GHGemissionswillhave to reduce 2020. with This meansthatallthecountries is apeakinglobalGHGemissionsaround concludes: “However, for the400ppmCO 2 e willberequired. The Institute Wuppertal 2 e scenarios havee scenarios incommon 2 equivalents(CO a global and bindingdeal 2 e) bymeans 2 006.06.2011 12:18:21 e 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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6 4 it becomesembeddedin socialand successful isvery desired outcome. policy If consumption –to achieve some socially- influence behavior –investment, innovation, (CEPS) states: “All seeksto publicpolicy The Centre for European Policy Studies users, commercial andresidential” (p. 7). improvements according to specificend- orelsetargets efficiency and transport, large such asenergy emittingsectors and involves amongthe interaction focusedis primarily ondecarbonization of different responses. policy Mitigation andultimate effectivenessthe acceptability to understanditsinfluenceonbe critical individuals, andorganizations industries will As perception such,studiesonrisk by the everyday ‘self-interests’ ofindividuals. viewed asobeyingadaptation istypically andimmediately byindividualsinsociety ofclimate changeareimpacts felt more andChangconclude: Martens “The to, say, Asian andsubregions. countries orEuropeansimply applyaGerman model regions, asitwillhardlysenseto make change, dependingonthegeographical different for andtrajectories scenarios of to develop avariety will benecessary economy andhumanbehavior. Also, it changes inpolicy, society, technology, targets without drasticandtransformative seemsimpossibleto meetambitiousIt behavioral changes. genuinegreentrigger growth andlarge-scale societaltippingpointsto certain to surpass meansto beable certainly in thiscontext nexus ofGHGemittingcountries. Success change intheproduction-consumption above withoutthemobilizationofadrastic level ofchangesandreductions described notleadto the willmostlikely the Kyoto kind ambitious andlegallybindingUNtreatyof andregulation alone. Evenmaking avery policy- andinter-governmental governmental notbeachievedtargets by willmostlikely thatambitious appears almostself-evident AND SOCIAL LEARNING FROM POLICY TO BEHAVIORAL CHANGE the emergence and diffusion of powerful the emergence anddiffusionofpowerful the behavior ofindividualsandsocieties, and authoritative forces that indeeddoinfluence but together canform astrong regime of of bothtechnological andbehavioral patterns, significanttrigger change intherespective areas alone areto create likely enoughpotential to noreconomicmeasures frameworks policy about energy security” [CEPS,2009].Neither expand, [or]growing markets world concern of renewable energy technologies ...as infrastructures, increasing competitiveness energy“high prices, investment ingreener components ofsuchschemesare, inter alia, important schemes andframeworks. Other componentoflargera critical incentivizing climate policiesare thatpro-active the fact policies are difficult,noonewould challenge or predictionsregarding theeffectiveness of technologies, orenergy. While projections instance for sustainableinvestments innew for andopportunities, creation ofmarkets canindeedinfluencethe that thesefactors isconceivable normative considerations. It as power, interest, rulesofthegame, or economic modelers, to includesuchvariables theoretical than andanalyticalframework Policy analystsusuallytend to applyalarger ofclimate changemitigation. in thecontext effectiveness offuture policies, for instance iseven harder and toIt project theimpact especially ifinnovative policiesare analyzed. of anindividualoraclustered nature – effectivenessmeasure –whetherthat policy term” appearsdifficultto [CEPS,2009].It they the expectations incentives and through the signals affect abouthowpolicy knowledge effectiveness more specificreason why measuring is alsoaffected bymany otherfactors. A influence –inthiscaseGHGemissions to isseeking the phenomenonthatpolicy because measure ofpolicy theimpact and socialcontext. ithard toThis makes inabroaderis always acting economic to remember thatpolicy also important andbehavior.economic norms Butitis

behavior of economicactors, notonly

prices, butthrough therelative

is difficultourstillincomplete

penalties theygenerate, and

shape over thelonger policy policy 006.06.2011 12:18:21 6 . 0 6 . 2 0

1 1

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changes into acompetitive advantage? economy thedesired andturn andnecessary is: Howcanwe avoid thedisruptionof investors questioninthisregard thekey alike, makers,entrepreneurspublic policy and to initiate effective mitigationmeasures. For simultaneously address thechangesneeded and behavioral solutionsandthereby incentives, canlinktechnological innovation set ofpoliciesandeconomicfinancial Integrative approaches, triggered bytheright to comeinandplay outtheirstrength. incentives for innovative investments have andgood making policy both pro-active and sustainable. This isthepointwhere incentive themeffective schemesto make and institutionalarrangements the right behaviors are multifaceted often andneed fromaccount thatchangesarising new itisprerequisitethis context into to take levels across allgeographical regions. In individual to thesocietalandsupra-societal scale behavioral changeisrequired from the the climate changeproblematique, large- Given thenature, magnitude andscaleof both leadingto significant emissionreductions. technological alternatives andgreen growth, 2 the 19 revolutions ofindustrial inthe trajectory in theimplicationsofunsustainable cause ofanthropogenic climate changelies thattheroot theassumptioniscorrect If first time have taken hold not only of the first timehave holdnotonlyofthe taken thathumanbeingsforsignify thefact the well. Hecoinedtheterm butintheEarth’shistory as physical history been areally uniqueera,notonlyinhuman noted hundred thatthelasttwo years have Holocene butNobelLaureate Paul Crutzen consumption. Geologists callourtimethe to energy, technology, andproduction and behavioral factors, andtheirrelation solution willhave to fullyimbibesocietal and behavioral issue, whichmeansthatany climate changeisultimately adeeplysocietal the so-called economicparadigm”,“Western Change (IHDP),atwebsite: www.ihdp-it.org. Human DimensionsProgramme onGlobal Environmental 6 For more information pleaserefer to andfindingsof thework 5 th Industrial Transformation project (IT) and20 th centuries, andtherefore in Anthropocene of the International oftheInternational to to 2

have i.e. highself-efficacy, whentheyfeel that to engageinnewbehaviorslikely whenthey previously behaviors. learned People are more of new behavior andinfluencethe frequency meansto generate modeling isapowerful theory, sociallearning [Ormrod, 1999].In influence thebehaviors thatpeopleexhibit reinforcements orpunishmentsontheother offuture on theonesidebutalsoexpectations say thatbothawareness theorists Social learning both cognitive aswell asbehavioral frameworks. combines theory and motivation,sociallearning this theory. As attention, memory itcomprises Bandura learning, imitation,andmodeling. Albert fromlearn oneanotherthrough observational assumesthathumanbeings It societal) context. thatoccurswithinasocial(or on thelearning focuses social learning. theory Sociallearning changes canbecatalyzed through processes of research showsthatbehavioral Inter-disciplinary threaten usintheyears ahead” [Sachs, 2007]. andfundamentally that disruptthosecycles ontheplanet,andhasdonesoinways cycles ofthenatural vastparts hasovertaken activity Anthropocene whenhuman istheperiod all theplanet’s physical systems aswell: “The economy andofpopulationdynamicsbut – – prevalence, complexity, value. functional e.g. distinctiveness, affective valence, decrease theamountofattention paid, and recalling thereinforced model). (imagined incentives) (seeing andvicarious (i.e. promised traditional behaviorism), imitate. motives suchaspast Includes – ofreproduction. observation physical capabilities,Including andself- – symbolic rehearsal, motor rehearsal. mental images, cognitive organization, attention to. symboliccoding, Includes Retention Reproduction Motivation Attention

is considered the leading proponent of is considered theleadingproponent of for effective modeling: Necessary conditionsNecessary : Remembering whatyou: Remembering paid : Various increase factors or : Having agoodreason to : Reproducing theimage. Box 1 006.06.2011 12:18:21 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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6 6 behavioral changes. studiesinthe Major canbestrong anlastingdrivers for efficacy as perceived threats andbenefitsorself- such thatfactors behavioral issueswe know been studiedextensively. From healthrelated andbehavioral changehavesocial learning ishealthwhere bodyofexperience A rich developed countries, respectively. countries, for emerging economies, andfor to beidentifiedfor poor poororextremely means thatdifferent approaches willhave societal changesofwhichtheyare part. This landscapesandthelarger socio-economic changes have to beembeddedinspecific behavioral andlarge-scale that sociallearning isself-evident It 2004,p.Issue of1April 73ff). change across” (pleaserefer to www.cio.com, diverse ways to getthesamedesired mind- have to resourceful beextremely infinding once anditgetsthrough isjustwrong. You embodiments. The notionthatyou say it of different intelligences andlotsofdifferent ways, lotsofdifferent symbolsystems, lots message outinlotsandofdifferent calls change canbeachieved through whathe andbehavioral suggests thatsociallearning 2001]. Moreover, Howard Gardner’s research SocialLearning Group, [The social learning effective climate changemitigationthrough and majortechnological canleadto shifts innovation for thequestionofhowpolicy study hasgreat potential andsignificance management. and successfulrisk Their effective globalenvironmental governance of sociallearning, laidthefoundations for major environmental problems, bymeans appliedtointerplay ofideasandactions studies. The authorsexaminedhowthe case ofempirical and analyzed avariety change, ozone depletion,andacidrain, analysis ofsocialresponses to climate Learning Group” provided afunctional Risks, In [Ormrod,contexts 1999]. for successfuli.e. effective modelinginsocial conditions The box belowshowsthenecessary them. they willbesuccessfulinperforming Learning toManageGlobalEnvironmental the Harvard University-based University-based theHarvard “Social representational redescriptions: “Get the “Get [Rosenstock etal., 1994]. change isarelatively recent phenomenon thatclimate changerelatedfact behavioral donotyet the healthsector existdueto the similar epistemological valueasisthecasein efficiency, studieswith althoughlong-term change mitigation,adaptationandenergy that needto occurwithregard to climate for or similarvalueandfunction changes suchchangeprocesses during canbeofequal is fullyconceivablethatthemechanicsatplay driversfor changeandlearning. It important box below)highlightssome of themost The famous relatively rapidlyandinanon-linear fashion. attitude, lifestyle andbehavior canoccur demonstrated thatenmassechangesin prevention, for example, have impressively withHIV or sexualbehavior inconnection areas ofchangedattitudestowards smoking [Bandura, 1977]. required to produce thedesired outcomes. to successfullyexecute thebehavior – behavior. thus indirectlyinfluencehealth-related that affect anindividual’s perceptions and sociopsychological, variables and structural – action. thatmotivate peopletopublicity) take condition) orenvironmental (e.g., media (e.g., physical symptoms ofahealth – financial demands. including physical, psychological, and healthactions, particular from taking negative consequencesthatmay result – reduce thethreat ofillness. effectiveness ofstrategies designed to – ofahealthcondition. severity perceived andperceived susceptibility – [Rosenstock, Strecher andBecker,[Rosenstock, 1994] Other Variables:Other Cues toAction: Perceived Threat: Self-Efficacy: Self-Efficacy: Perceived Barriers: Perceived Benefits: Health Belief Model(HBM) Health Belief Health BeliefModel The beliefinbeingable Diverse demographic, Events, eitherbodily Consists of two parts: Consists parts: oftwo The potential The believed (HBM, see (HBM, see

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on investments. and related economicbenefitsandreturn efficienttechnologies application ofcarbon potential benefitslieinthedevelopment and and goalsettingrunmore smoothly. Huge futureprecedent, globaldiscussions making goal. Climate conferences can helpto seta to together work countries to reach acommon system,global governance whichrequires all couldbethe of theclimate changecrisis Benefits: climate change (i.e. coastalzones). by more vulnerablenationsto theeffects of affluent nations;couldalsobethethreat felt societies thatperceive exploitationby to climatecontribution changeordeveloping societies perceiving scrutiny for theirlifestyles’ Perceived Threats couldlookasfollows: climate changecontext A “translation” into a oftheHealthBeliefModel 3 environment (orpolicy) governance in right energy requires andthe sociallearning innovation inthearea oftechnology and conclusion,we understandthateffective In change. theeffects ofclimate cannot directlyobserve thatmany people couldbethefact variable spread awareness. to inCopenhagen are necessary observed themediapublicity by all, socialcueslike Since physical cuesare noteasily observed consequences ofclimate change (i.e. sea-level). be physical orsocial. Physical cuesincludethe the dedicationto change. recognize thefaultsoftheirlifestyles, butalso is thatitmandates globalcitizens to notonly commitment. Agreat ofclimate change barrier change problems require alotmoreand effort penetrated asintheHBMmodel. Climate to dowithclimate changeare notaseasily Aside from this, theperceived having barriers the healthsector, include economicdemand. withregards barriers to climate in change, like her input. institutions canstrive to achieve. thatindividualscandependonand of action The MDGscouldbeanexampleofthis;aplan produce thedesired outcomes.” [Bandura,1977] successfully execute thebehaviour required to 6 Special thanks to Ms. Kyr Hudson, University of Michigan, for Specialthanksto Ms. ofMichigan, KyrHudson,University 7 One potentially all-inclusive benefit Onepotentially all-inclusive benefit Self-Efficacy: Self-Efficacy: : This couldbedeveloped Perceived Barriers: “The belief in being able to beliefinbeingableto “The Other Variables:Other Cues toAction: 3 Perceived Perceived Another Another Can Can Transformation project (IHDP-IT), atwebsite:Transformation www.ihdp-it.org. project(IHDP-IT), have to political, legalandeconomicinstitutions challenges to systems. ourgovernance Our societal framework. Yet thisposessome orientededucated andsustainability once theyare embedded inawell- effectively andachieve theirbestresults and productionmeansare performing green technologies,smart energy forms especially inAsia, seemcritical. Newand aroundand productivity theglobe, but dramatic increase ofenergy efficiency economies,and lowcarbon andatruly “socio-technical regimes” for sustainability shown. Yet theemergence ofso-called attention, astheforegoing chapter has requiremechanics ofsociallearning more dissemination, andthemechanisms and co-production The role ofknowledge contexts. awareness, whichcanbereplicated inother no doubtcreated adifferent level ofpublic processes above,learning asdescribed have protection. bymeansofsocial These actions, topatterns resource useandenvironmental have introduced changesandnewbehavioral values, andsocialtraditions. Various socialgroups happensthroughoften institutions, and norms ofprevious adaptive responses.memory This allows establishingandmaintainingacollective role asit plays inthiscontext akey learning conditions. Social and adaptwithincertain technological andeconomicdevelopment Societies candevelop diverse pathways of through imagination, nichesandnovelties. is amistake. Technological innovationworks orunderestimated, neglected often which is Especially thesocialandbehavioral aspect order to becomeeffective andsustainable. 4 ontheother.adaptability andbehavioral learning and collective on theonehandside, andindividual diffusion andtechnological innovation and production that foster knowledge pairedadaptive withprovisions capacity AND INNOVATION SOCIO-TECHNICAL REGIMES This paragraphs draws andfindingsoftheIndustrial onthework 4 feature a certain amountoffeature acertain 006.06.2011 12:18:22 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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6 8 resources are embedded inthe andservices, ways inwhichhumansuseenvironmental technologies, putdifferently, changesinthe withthenotionthatchangesin starts as follows: “Industrial Transformation research inAsia,transformation research, particularly IHDP-IT defines thefoundation of industrial and transformation processes [IT1999]. information andcommunication,governance with focus ofwater andtransportation, of energy flows, andmaterial food, cities inthefields work has triggered remarkable on GlobalEnvironmental Change(IHDP-IT), HumanDimensionsProgrammeInternational the “Industrial Transformation Project” ofthe mitigation efforts. The research agendaof andboldclimate changesustainability social development withenvironmental can effectively linkhuman,economicand istheoneonhowsocieties in thiscontext question andacceptance.learning Akey economy,making, technology, andsocial This requires policy abalancebetween Social andbehaviouralSocial responses environmental change. use andreduceofdrivers impacts ofresourceto increase theefficiency designed technologies of – Development Technological responses information. and constrained byalackofknowledge – Effective managementofecosystems is Knowledge responses ecosystem goodsandservices. interventions as instrumentsto regulate theuseof financial and – Economic and Economics andincentives institutional effective managementofecosystems. in environmental for governanceframeworks – Changes degradation. instrumental inresponding to ecosystem ofcommunitiescanbeempowerment – and Public action education,civilsociety Source: IHDP Institutions andglobalgovernance A larger governance context : : : Box 3 : : pathways less– has[sofar]attracted orlessresource-intensive carbon development targets and sustainability – includinglow- ofhigher-le achievement adoption ofbestavailable technologies. The and p improvementsterm inenergy-, resource- to thequestionofhowto achieve near- relates to product-process innovationand to technology, andsustainability industry current Asian policiesandresearch linked featureA characteristic ofmuch the appearedthe world of anddeveloping Asia,urbanizing thispart changes are mostmanifested intherapidly oftheworld. Given thetransformativeparts political andeconomicdevelopment inother understandings ofprocesses ofsocial, withcurrent transitions andsustainability these to connect ‘western’ debates about and behavior. However, “there isaneed aspects, butalsotheroles ofinstitutions debates have notonlyincludedtechnological consumption. Suchresearch andpolicy and innovationinproduction of large-scale some time, especiallyregarding theaspect a numberofEuropean already countries for of theresearch communitiesin andpolicy focustransitions have beenanimportant transformation andsustainability Industrial 2006]. and these questions[Olsthoorn Wieczorek, energy, mobility, of food) isattheheart influenced bysocietaldevelopment (e.g. with changeprocesses inprovisional systems ofeconomyinteraction innovation driven ecosystem failure. otherwords, In the significant additionalGHGemissions and might beableto changewithoutproducing to understandhowthesesystemsis critical [Asian Transitions andGlobalization,2006].It producers,(government, andconsumers)” these situate andinfluencesocialactors (i.e. property, liability, regulations), andhow and incentives thatshapethesesystems IT research isalsointerested intheinstitutions anddisposal activities. chains anddistribution products, andconsumption production environment. This embracesprocesses and realm andmodifythenatural socio-economic ollution-intensities through the par ticularly challenging. vel environmental 006.06.2011 12:18:22 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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however occurring in a relatively short run. in a relativelyhowever occurring short ofbigchange perspective is along-term development approach. What isneeded low-carbon the overarching goalofevery both socialandtechnical changemustbe consumption andproductionaswell asto Taking dimension to both thesustainability and [Olsthoorn Wieczorek, 2006]. are agreements” byinternational structured the degree to which development options information around technology choices..., to outpolicies, of availability in carrying effectiveness institutions ofgovernment rule oflaw, andcontrol ofcorruption), capabilities building(suchaspoliticalstability, conditions for industrial-environmental conditions rangefrom fundamentalstarting was provided. relevant institutional “The and where institutionalset-up theright development have ifcapability worked poor economicgrowth andtechnological From research thatpro- inEastAsia we know for sustainabledevelopment world-wide? transformationof industrial inAsia beuseful unprecedented”.historically Canthisperiod is growth andscaleofeconomicactivity population that inabsolute ofurban terms transition midst ofamassive urban-industrial development onaglobalscale. Asia isinthe Asia centraltowhich make sustainable resources locally, regionally andglobally, implications for environmental and quality growthand industrial and profound“their because ofthesheerscaleandrate ofurban resource are intensity akey. Asia matters ofclimate changeenergythe context and ofways,can bemeasured butin inavariety andtransport. infrastructure Their co-efficient especially intheareas ofenergy, technology, andinnovation,bringing aboutnovelty inbuildinguponor institutional aspects upon deeplycultural, social, behavioral and environment-interactions.touch Transitions changesinhuman andlarge-scale term The term “transitions” usuallyrefers to long- and [Olsthoorn Wieczorek, 2006]. capita thanmostindustrialized economies” are stillrelatively lessresource-intensive per becausetheseeconomies attention, partly 6 9 has to beinduced. merely emergent changeassuch seems promising. isaboutpurposive, not It inclusive economicgrowth andinnovation andto thequestionofclimate-resilient of involved actors. Applyingthisapproach ofsystems andthehugediversity complexity noteThe transitionsapproach ofthe takes sectors, whichisfartoo narrow avision. onsingletechnologiesperspective or incontrastto amorepractice traditional to aprevailing domainofsocio-technical is thatitconceptualizes innovationinrelation ofthisapproachthat themerit to transitions socialarrangements.”certain Steward states and theconsumptionside–disrupts –onboththeproduction ofactors diversity technological andsocial innovation,involves is systemic innature, time, embraces takes of intervention. We seethatradicalchange and search guidanceasto apossiblepoint the dynamicsoftransformative innovation suchase.g.can getholdofsomepatterns Steward, canlookat theseexamplesand “we based information systems. According to Fred basedto PC sanitation, orfrom note-pad mobility, from grid based homebasedto city from horsebasedto automobile based to steam basedintercontinental transport, possible, e.g. thetransitionsfrom sailbased radical andrelatively abruptchangesare as itshowsinanumberofcasesthateven innovation isquite promising inthisregard oftechnological changeand The history Anna J. Wieczorek. Workshop report (6–7 July Framework. 2006, Towards Analytical an Globalisation: and Chiangtions Mai, Thailand), ed. by 5 theevolutionof cooperationthatdetermine technologies, rules,andnetworks practices relatively stableconfigurationofinstitutions, “socio-technical regime” whichrefers to a istheconcept inthisconnection Important from have technological shown. history change usuallygohandinhand, asthecases words, socialchangeand technological other and thedynamicsofsocialchange. In conditions larger frameofsocio-economic any technical innovationisembeddedina The transitionsapproach thussuggests that The Steward quotes are taken from the report Asian Transi- Asian report the from taken are quotes Steward The 5 006.06.2011 12:18:22 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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7 0 Replacing existingregimes bynewones–in to bestableandsometimeseven “sticky”. regime.a socio-rechnical Regimes tend ortechnology hencecanbecalled artefact etc. Suchaconfigurationaroundmarkets an and policiesalongsidefinancerules and symbolicmeanings, userpractices tech factors, incudingsuchthingsasculture ofnon- into accountandmodelavariety take development ofnewtechnologies hasto technology. and selection The purposive This schemecanbeappliedto any (new) embedded. diffusion ofacaristypically which thedevelopment, and production showsthewider The picture “landscape” in isgiven sector below.manufacturing configuration(or typical “regime”) inthecar- theexampleofa how suchregimes work, (conferenceSociety paper). To illustrate 2008 Conference oftheSystem Dynamics regime,biofuels asanewsocio-technical the Investigation of andmodellingframework Stamboulis Y. andPapachristos G.[2008]: [Geels, 2002and2004].Please refer to production, diffusionanduseoftechnology regimeits entiretyasocio-technical includes etal.,and useoftechnology [Kemp 1998].In regimes, oftheanti-nuclear theactivities like 2004]. These canbedirected atspecific attitudesandtrends [Geels, socio-cultural political economic ‘landscapes’, orwider conventions, includingchangesinbroad emanating from institutionalstructuresand consider lesseconomicallyvisiblepressures such factors, butgoesbeyond themto technical regime, ontheotherhand, includes Analysisatthelevel ofthesocio- knowledge). standards, lia-bility, profitability, and skills taxescontracts, andcharges, regulations, (suchaspricing,of thefirm competition, on pressures thatoperate visiblyatthelevel analysis oftechnical changetends to focus to these pressures. Conventional economic inside andoutsidetheregime to adapt The coordination ofresources available pressures ontheregime; bearing and(2.) processes: selection of two (1.)Shifting understand regime changeto beafunction i.e. regime changes. Smithetal. write: “We undergo anumberofsuchparadigm shifts, fieldwillhave to production-consumption in rapidlyemerging countries, thewider To yieldreal growth green andlow-carbon initiatingparadigm shifts. is essentiallylike ones– the given casemore climate-friendly Source: Geels, 2004 006.06.2011 12:18:22 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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outcomes atdifferent ofprocesses occurring technical regimes –are theembedded central elementsofthesesystems –socio- a changing socialorsocietalcontext. “The settingsandinstitutionsaswell as policy comesto bearonchanging New knowledge development”urban etal., 2008]. [Berkhout agriculture andfood,transport, water and sectors, includingenergy,systems inkey traditionalandearly-modernaltering technical systems, replacing orradically featuring theemergence of “new socio- analyzed asaprocess ofsystems innovation Economic development inAsia hasbeen energy profile ofthedeveloping economy.” profound influenceontheresources and and consumptiontheyfoster, willhave a ofeconomicgrowthon, andthepatterns systems, thetechnologies theyare based specific nature ofthesesocio-technical systems...[...] ofsocio-technical The therapidgrowtheconomies we observe capacity ofaregime. We refer to thisfeature asthe pressuresthe selection onthem. bearing andresourcessome capacity to respond to Smith etal. continue: “All regimes have in society” [Smithetal., 2005]. the ebbandflowofenvironmental attitudes movement. Ortheycanbemore general, like 7 1 In developing Asian In adaptive functions to ofpolicy, establishaframework functions isquite essentialto across work allofthese It economies; andFormation ofnewmarkets. resources; Creation ofpositive external consumers andproducers; Supplyof over searchInfluence processes among Creation functions: ofnewknowledge; bythefollowing innovation issupported According to JacobssonandJohnson[2000], promising one. resources,level ofexternal isthemost tosector consumers),andarelatively high via technological communities, thefinance regime members(e.g. from publicauthorities requires alighlevel ofcoordination between appears that “purposive transition”, which of transitionaldevelopment It trajectories. Smith etal. [2005] mapsoutfour types technical regimes. by The belowchart socio- and/or reconfiguration ofso-called ongoing anditerative process offormation understand economicdevelopment asan The systems innovationapproach helpsus 2008]. (systems of innovation)” etal., [Berkhout in nichesandadjustmentoflandscapes levels ofthesystem, includinginnovation CONCLUSION 006.06.2011 12:18:22 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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7 2 14. Jacobsson, S.andJohnson, A. (2000): An The diffusionofrenewable energy technology: Intergovernmental Panel onClimate (2007):Climate Change(IPCC) Change2007.Geneva. 13. 12. PanelIntergovernmental (2001): onClimate Change(IPCC) Third Assessment Report No. (1999):SciencePlan. 12(cited as: IHDP Reprt Industrial TransformtionVellinga11. and (IT) 10. G Geels, F. W. (2002): Technological reconfiguration processes: A transitionsasevolutionary 9. Gardner, H.(2006):Changing Cambridge, Mass. Minds. 8. Technological Requirements, EconomicCosts andPolicies (CEPSPolicyNo. Brief 2009). 188/May 7. Centre for European Policy Studies(CEPS)(2009):Reachingthe2°C Target: 6. Boelie, E.,Geels, F. W. (eds.) andGreen,(2004):System innovationandthetransitionto K. 5. F., Berkhout, Angel, D. and Wieczorek, A.(2008):Asian development pathways and 4. Asian Transitions andGlobalisation: Towards anAnalyticalFramework. Workshop report 3. Asian Bank(ADB) Development (2010):Climate ChangeinAsia andthePacific: Implica- 2. Asian Bank(ADB) Development (2008):Strategy 2020.– The Long-Term Strategic 1. and governance”. Emerging socio-technical flows knowledge and globalized markets, domestic between ofinteraction context systems willemergesocio-technical inthe in developing Asia. Suchsustainable of more sustainabledevelopment pathways technical systems asthebasis efficient socio- the emergence ofnew, more resource- conclude: becomespossibleto envisage “It etal.technological [2008] change. Berkhout investment andtargeted to stimulate action REFERENCES analytical framework and key areas for andkey analytical framework research. Energy Policy 28,pp. 625–640. (TAR). Geneva. Herb, 1999). dynamics andchangefrom sociologyandinstitutionaltheory. Research Policy 33,pp. 897–920. multi level andacasestudy. perspective Research Policy 31,pp. 1257–1274. Theory,sustainability: evidenceandpolicy. Cheltenham, UK. regimessustainable socio-technical (IVM PaperWorking I.08/01).Amsterdam. (6–7 July2006,ChiangMai, Thailand), ed. byAnnaJ. Wieczorek. tions for Food, Fuel, andPeople. Manila. Framework oftheAsian Bank2008–2020.Manila. Development eels, F.W. (2004): From systems sectoral ofinnovationto about sociotechnical systems: Insights have to vary. investment schemesandassistancewill frameworks,change, butalsohowpolicy oftransitionsandregimepossible interms al., 2008]thatnotonlydemonstrate whatis et projects[Berkhout sustainable forestry biofuelinitiatives and such aseco-cities, experiments”,numerous “sustainability hasgiven ofvariation tothis context rise thatpreciselysignificantly. isremarkable It regimes willvary andtransitioncontexts 006.06.2011 12:18:23 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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3 tr, W. 23. Sterk, 22. Stamboulis Y. andPapachristos G.(2008):Investigation of andmodellingframework 21. F. A.,Berkhout Smith, A.,Stirling (2005): transitions. ofsocio-technical The governance Sachs, J. intheAnthropocene.20. (2007): Lecture ReithLecture, 2,Survival Peking University: I.M.,Strecher,Rosenstock, 19. V.J. andBecker, M.H.(1994): The healthbeliefmodelandHIVrisk Ormrod, J.E. (3rd18. (1999):Humanlearning ed.). Sydney. 17. X.,and Olsthoorn, Wieczorek, A.,(eds.) 2006:UnderstandingIndustrial Transformation: P.Martens, 16. andChang, C.T. (2010): ofclimateThe socialandbehavioural change: aspects Kemp, R.,SchotJ. andHoogma through to R.(1998):Regime sustainability processes shifts 15. 24. 7 for International and Security Affairs. andSecurity for International e.g. theUnited NationsUniversity, Institute theSocialScienceCenter andtheGerman Berlin, held professional affiliationswithseveral United Nationsagenciesandresearch institutions, capacities, andhas several agenciesandcommitteesacademic books. inadvisory Heserves several andchapters books, inpeerreviewed and andpublishednumerous journals articles 3 Society (conferenceSociety paper). regime.biofuels asanewsocio-technical The 2008Conference ofthe System Dynamics Research Policy, 34:pp. 1491–1510. http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/reith2007/lecture2.shtml. (pp. 5–24).New ofBehavioral Interventions Methods York. behavior R.J. change. In DiClemente &J.L. Peterson (eds.), Preventing AIDS: and Theories Views from Different Disciplines. Dordrecht. vulnerability,Linking adaptationandmitigation.Sheffield, UK. and Strategic 10(3):pp. Management, 175–195. of nicheformation: The approach ofstrategic nichemanagement. Technology Analysis Energy (Wuppertal Spezialno. 40). Energy (Wuppertal A proposal forWuppertal Copenhagen – for Inst. Climate,Wuppertal Environment and Analysis ofSocialResponsesto Climate Change, Cambridge, Ozone Mass. andAcid Depletion, Rain. The SocialLearning Group (2001):Learning GlobalEnvironmental to Manage AFunctional Risks: (2009): Towards aneffective Dr. Andreas Rechkemmer Andreas hasauthored, Rechkemmer andedited co-authored andtheUnited (UNU). NationsUniversity Science Council (ISSC), Council for Social International Science (ICSU),theInternational Environmental Change(IHDP),ajointprogramme ofthe HumanDimensionsProgrammethe International onGlobal University, asExecutive Director USA.Until2009,heserved of Davos, Switzerland, andavisitingscholaratColorado State the ChiefScienceandPolicy Forum, Advisor attheGlobalRisk China, andteaches ofCologne, attheUniversity Germany. Heis governance. HeisaGuestProfessor University, atBeijingNormal environmental change, sustainabledevelopment andrisk thematicfocus Relations. His isonglobal of International and equitableclimatechange isaPolitical Scientistandascholar agreement: 006.06.2011 12:18:23 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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7 4 et d’en saisirleseffets surleséchanges onttenté delamesurer 1991].Ils Krugman, et al., région dumonde[Balassa,1962;Frankel àunemême des pays quiappartiennent économiquesetsocialesentreinteractions augmentation deséchangeset la régionalisation correspondait àune 2000]. Les économistes ontmontré que l’économie mondialevont depair[Siroön, La mondialisationetlarégionalisation de exchanges, Europe, neighbourhood, Russia exchanges ofgoods, bilateral of intensity ideological blocs. end ofthecoldwarand of theglobaleconomy, especiallysincethe bytheregionalization itisconcerned extent applied to Europe inorder to seeto which of tradeexchanges. Bothindicators are thebilateral intensity with anotherindicator: to combineit globalization, itisnecessary order to display amore nuancedpictureof economies involved intheseexchanges. In instance, itisbiasedbythesize ofthe it suffers from For majorshortcomings. of goods. This indicator isquite usefulbut based ontherow valueoftradeexchanges 1990s. mostoftheirstudiesare Nevertheless, studying theprocess ofregionalization inthe trade exchanges. Geographers have started and theregionalization ofinternational relations economicglobalization between The economistshave thoroughly studiedthe Sorbonne, France, 191,rueSaint-Jacques, [email protected] 75005Paris ;e-mail: Assistant Professor, ofGeography, Department Université Paris 1Panthéon Yann Richard INTRODUCTION KEY WORDS: ABSTRACT REGIONALIZATION EUROPE WITHIN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC DE L’ÉCONOMIE MONDIALE L’EUROPE DANS LA RÉGIONALISATION 1995;Baldwin,1997;Frankel, 1998; regionalization, trade international enEurope?international Onutiliseradeux surlarégionalisationimpact ducommerce la findeguerre euun froide ont-elles et ce processus? del’URSS Ladisparition à dumondeparticipe-t-elle cette partie à travers l’exemple del’Europe. Comment validité del’hypothése delarégionalisation L’objectif la estdevérifier decetarticle utilement auxdébatssurcethéme. discipline assezbienoutilléepourparticiper une et quelagéographie estelle-même dépasser cette difficulté [Freudenberg, 1998] au pointdesindicateurs de quipermettent regrettable queleséconomistes ontmis Tobelem Zanin,2007].C’est plus d’autant biaisée pardeseffets de taille[Richard& elle présente l’inconvénient d’être fortement estinsuffisante etbiaiséecar celle-ci Mais la valeurbrute deséchangescommerciaux. utilisent desindicateurs intéressants comme quelquesexceptions, beaucoup eux, àpart locale [Dollfus, 2007;Lévy, 2008].Parmi à l’échelle globale etseseffets àl’échelle d’études, préférant étudierlamondialisation yconsacrent encoreThéodat, 2008].Ils peu &Richard,2008; Beckouche 2008; Taglioni & 2004; Didelon&Grasland, 2007;Beckouche, Anselin, 1996;Poon & Van der Wusten, 1990;O’Loughlin, tardivement àlarégionalisation [O’Loughlin Les géographes sesontintéressés mondiale, 2009, Newfarmer 2005;Banque [Bhagwati, 1992;Mashayeki, le développement économiqueengénéral Freudenberg 1982;Stein &Garnaud, & Drysdale Wei, 1996; commerciaux 1950;Anderson,1979; [Viner, et al., 1998;Maurel, 1998]etsur et al., et al., 2000; Taillard, 2005]. 006.06.2011 12:18:24 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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des exportations internes de l’Eurafrique del’Eurafrique internes des exportations dans lemonde(tabl.claire 1).Lapart partout La tendance àlarégionalisation n’est pas du commerce mondial? Que pése l’Europe dans la régionalisation éventuelles. vérifier sonexistence etd’en saisirleslimites de deux indicateurs choisisquipermettra de marchandise. C’est des lacartographie européenne danslecommerce mondial ne présupposera parl’existence région d’une des échangescommerciaux bilatéraux. On deux derniéres, ons’intéressera àl’intensité des échangesdemarchandises. Dansles s’intéressera àl’évolution delavaleurbrute Dans lesdeuxpremiéres on parties, représentation nuancéedelarégionalisation. indicateurs ducommerce afindedonnerune COMMERCIAUX: UN GÉANT EN REPLI? RÉGIONALISATION DES ÉCHANGES L’UNION EUROPÉENNE DANS LA 7 5 E2 8826,6 22,5 8,9 28,8 3,1 1 26,6 0,1 7,5 0,1 – 2,5 0,8 22,5 0 6,6 0,1 – 1,5 24,6 0,9 7,1 0,1 0,1 2009. Source :CHELEM-CEPII, 0,8 UE 27 1 0,1 UE 15 Alena 0,1 Asie dusudest latine Amérique arabe Monde subsah Afrique uarqe4, 484, 38,5 12,3 12 42,1 10,5 10,2 44,8 7,1 10,2 48,6 5,2 11,3 Eurafrique Asie Océanie Amérique 1 Source : CHELEM-CEPII, 2009 Source :CHELEM-CEPII, La Russieetla Turquie sont incluses dansl’ensemble Eurafrique. Exportateurs Exportateurs Tabl. 1. Part du commerce interne (exportations) de plusieurs ensembles régionaux dans dans régionaux ensembles plusieurs de (exportations) interne Tabl. commerce du 1. Part Tabl. 2. Part du commerce interne (exportations) de plusieurs ensembles régionaux ensembles plusieurs de (exportations) interne commerce du Part Tabl. 2. 1967–1976 1967–1976 Moyenne Moyenne dans les exportations mondiales exportations les dans le commerce mondial total mondial commerce le 1977–1986 1977–1986 Moyenne Moyenne interne de l’UE 27 del’UE interne Et l’évolution ducommerce delapart mondiales depuislesannées1970(tabl. 2). décroissante desexportations une part 15représentent del’UE internes exportations petits, lestendances sontcontrastées. Les Pour desensemblesgéographiques plus mondial. sont passéesde5,2%à12,3%dutotal moyennes internes annuelles exportations faitexceptionNouvelle-Zélande) puisqueses (comprenantorientale l’Australie etla 1960. Pour l’Amérique, elleeststable. L’Asie sensiblement depuislafindesannées mondialesareculé dans lesexportations (Europe +Proche +Afrique) etMoyen Orient membres de l’Union européenne “. européenne l’Union de membres actuellement 27 pays les par constitué régional “l’ensemble Pour être plus rigoureux, on devrait dire plutôt qu’il s’agit de 2007. janvier depuis que n’existe celle-ci que 27 alors l’UE pour 1 régions. depuis lesannées1990,aucontraire d’autres Il peut sembler artificiel de faire des comparaisons décennales décennales comparaisons des faire de artificiel sembler peut Il 1 1997–1996 1997–1996 Moyenne Moyenne 1 aussiconnaîtunebaisse 1997–2006 1997–2006 Moyenne Moyenne 006.06.2011 12:18:24 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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7 6 du commerce intrarégional 15est del’UE espaces lesplusproches: labaissedepart en traind’élargir aux son assiette territoriale début desannées1990.L’UE 15estdonc intrarégional 15baissedepuisle del’UE Parallélement, lapart (PECO)l’URSS vers l’Europe del’Ouest. du commerce desancienssatellites de s’explique parlaréorientation enpartie (graph.son commerce 3).Cela extérieur l’UE 15 d’une vingtaine d’années, levoisinage de du commerce sont plus Depuis contrastées. etlesrégionsl’UE voisines, lesévolutions A l’intérieur de l’ensemble composé par européenne delarégion commercialedifférencié Un élargissement géographiquement dérégionalisation revanche, 27sontenvoie de 15etl’UE l’UE latine,Amérique elleestrestée stable. En membres (ALENA, MERCOSUR, ASEAN).En du commerce total international despays commerce aaugmenté interne enproportion du dumonde, lapart parties Dans certaines situations. (tabl. 3),onpeutdistinguertroisde types membres deplusieursensemblesrégionaux régional danslacommerce total despays ducommerce intra lapart Si onobserve voie dedérégionalisation? L’Europe :uncommerce international en 2 case, PECO, pays méditerranéens. PECO, pays case, Pays de l’AELE, Balkans occidentaux, CEI occidentale et Cau- et CEIoccidentale occidentaux, l’AELE, Balkans de Pays E2 6366,2 60,5 21 66,3 18,7 36,7 64,3 18,6 18,3 15,5 41,4 58,1 16,9 17,7 8,6 38,2 58,1 17,5 15,1 8,4 2009 Source :CHELEM-CEPII, 39,3 UE 27 17,5 UE 15 ASEAN MERCOSUR latine Amérique Alena Tabl. 3. Part du commerce intrarégional dans le commerce total de plusieurs ensembles régionaux ensembles plusieurs de total commerce le dans intrarégional commerce du Tabl. Part 3. xottusMy16–96My17–96My19–96Moy 1997–2006 Moy 1997–1996 Moy 1977–1986 Moy 1967–1976 Exportateurs

2 représente croissante de unepart (tabl. 3,graph. 1et2). du commerce correspond une A la voisinages danssoncommerce extérieur. descorrélée avec l’augmentation delapart régionalisation ducommerce international Golfe). l’hypothése Cela d’une confirme à 5%(ennecomptantpas larégion du 27(graph.de l’UE 7)estpassée3,6% en généraldanslecommerce extérieur desvoisinagesDans l’autre sens, lapart 6). l’exception des NEIoccidentaux(graph. baisse oustagne depuislesannées1990à desrégionscommerce extérieur voisines 27dansleconcordantes. del’UE Lapart Pour 27,lesévolutions sont l’UE et duCaucase. recul, àl’exception desNEIoccidentaux maisen toujours important partenaire les années1990(graph. 5).L’UE estun depuisde leurcommerce extérieur sont entraindediversifier lagéographie Inversement, lesrégions duvoisinage vingtaine d’années. est restée stableautour de3%pendantune despays méditerranéens évolution. Lapart C’est àcette laRussiequialepluscontribué passée de1%à3%en6annéesseulement. est del’Union dans lecommerce extérieur Géorgie)Caucase (Arménie, Azerbaïidjan, (Belarus, etdu Moldavie, Russie, Ukraine) desNEIoccidentaux (graph. 4).Lapart sud-est l’est alorsqu’elle stagne ourecule ausudet 15progresse del’UE extérieur trés vite vers Dans ledétail, larégionalisation ducommerce un ensemblegéographique plusétendu. dérégionalisation rerégionalisation de l’Union européenne del’Union dessinant 006.06.2011 12:18:24 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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Suisse baisse. celle duGolfe etdel’ensemble – Norvége occidentauxeststableetqueBalkans despays etdes méditerranéens la part européen del’est, endirection tandis 7 7 Graph. 2. Part des intrar exportations Graph. 1. Part des intrarégionales importations dans les totales importations de deuz ensembles régionaux égionales dans deuz ensembles régionaux intégration économiquedesdeux européenne etl’ex-URSS avec une commerciale encoursentre l’Union y auraitunprocessus derégionalisation On peutdoncformuler unehypothése. Il 006.06.2011 12:18:24 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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7 8 Graph. 4. Part des voisinages dans le commerce extérieur (imp + exp) de I’UE 15* Graph. 3. Part du voisinage consolidé dans le commerce extérieur de I’UE 15 006.06.2011 12:18:25 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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7 9 Graph. 6. Part de I’UE 27 dans le commerce de plusieurs ensembles régionaux Graph. 5. Part de I’UE 15 dans le commerce extérieur des voisinages 006.06.2011 12:18:26 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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8 0 car l’augmentation deséchanges Cette hypothése retient l’attention entre économiesiraientcroissant. à l’intérieure delaquellelesinteractions ensembles dansuneseuleetmêmerégion Graph. 8. Ventilation géographique du commerce de extérieur la CEI Graph. 7. Part des voisinages dans le commerce extérieur de I’UE 27 URSS. vientrencontrerl’UE celledel’ancienne CEI (graph. 8et9).La baisse ducommerce intrarégional dela commerciaux avec estcorrélée àune l’UE dérégionalisation 006.06.2011 12:18:27 6 . de 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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échanges commerciaux entre pays etla différence des entre lavaleurobservée delaet onanalysedelarépartition oncartographieDans cette partie, mondial) danslecommerce mondial. leurpoidsrelatifà-dire danslecommerce par lataillecommerciale despays (c’est- estiméece mêmeéchange, elle-même entre de deuxpays àlavaleurthéorique +importation) bilatéral (exportation fluxd’échange d’un la valeurobservée derapporter permet 2004].Il Kesenci, 1998; Gaulier,Unal-Kesenci, Jean&Ünal- des échanges[Freudenberg, & Gaulier avec d’intensité lebirapport bilatérale de neutraliserl’effet detaille. C’est possible donc utiliserdesindicateurs quipermettent réelle desrelations commerciales. faut Il del’intensitédonne unevisionpartielle par latailledespays quiéchangentet présente uninconvénient. Elleestinfluencée La valeurdeséchangescommerciaux bilatéraux des échanges:l’intensité deséchanges Un indicateur plus nuancé quelavaleur INTENSITÉS D’ÉCHANGES BILATÉRAUX MONDIALE VUE À TRAVERS LES LA RÉGIONALISATION DE L’ÉCONOMIE 8 1 Graph. 9. Ventilation géographique du commerce de extérieur I’Ukraine conventionnelle. defortes Onvoit surlacarte limites excédent largement cellesdel’Europe asiatique etunensembleeuropéen dontles Caraïbes), l’ALENA, unensemble pacifico- (comprenant l’Amérique centraleetles de distinguerunensemblelatino-américain etpermet 02estplusdiscriminante La carte relations commerciales privilégiées. des paquetsdepays quientretiennent des ce seuilesttropMais baspourfaire émerger supérieure àlavaleurattendue selonle modéle. estégaleou échanges bilatéraux observés tous lescouplesdepays dontlavaleurdes à 1sontreprésentés, cequirevient àmontrer pays dumonde. Tous supérieurs lesbirapports en 2004-2006entre tous lespays ougroupes de desintensitésmontre d’échange larépartition 01 plusieurs ensemblesrégionaux. Lacarte commerciaux demarchandises font apparaître A l’échelle mondiale, lesintensités d’échanges interactions –Voisinages Unioneuropéenne La région commerciale etles européenne etvaleurobservée). théorique relatif (l’écart enpourcentage entre valeur le modéle. Ontientcompte durésidu valeur attendue telle quecalculéeselon 006.06.2011 12:18:27 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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8 2 élargie auxvoisinages géographiques. On même indicateur maisàl’échelle del’Europe du 03réalisée àpartir lacarte que confirme de pays à l’intérieur decette région. C’est ce montre aussiqu’ilcarte existe despaquets entre euxqu’avec lereste dumonde. Cette de pays qui ontdavantage d’interaction région commerciale européenne composée soviétique. l’existence Cela confirme d’une la Turquie etlespays del’ancienneUnion européennel’Union etl’Afrique duNord, commercialesinteractions entre lespays de ensembles régionaux relevés ci-dessus 04montresensibles. queles Lacarte des années1990montre desévolutions milieu desannées2000etcelledudébut La comparaisonentre lasituationdu en Europe Régionalisation versus dérégionalisation 2004–2006. sous ensembleencore intégré fortement en peut voir parexemple quel’ex-URSS est 006.06.2011 12:18:28 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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On voit en particulier unrecul sensibleOn voit enparticulier cette tendance. 01et05confirme cartes Lacomparaisondes au sudetsud-est. rétrécissement delarégion européenne est) dansd’autres régions. Onconstate un qu’il augmente (Asie del’est etdusud- centraleetdusud)oustable (Amérique dans cette région dumondealorsqu’il est relations commerciales privilégiées abaissé une quinzained’années, lenombre des Nord àl’Asie centraleauProche En Orient. européenne s’étendait del’Afrique du des années1990.Larégion commerciale étaient déjábienidentifiablesaudébut 8 3 et sonrétrécissement surlesmarges à l’intérieur delarégion européenne commercialesréduction desinteractions 02et05.Lala comparaisondescartes selon lemodéle. C’est cequemontre fois auxéchangesattendus supérieurs étaientetsontaumoinsdeuxobservés de pays dontleséchangesbilatéraux Le recul estspectaculairepourlescouples moins nombreux. privilégiés àl’intérieur del’ex-URSS sont Maghreb. De des liensprivilégiés entre laFrance etle même, les liens commerciaux 006.06.2011 12:18:28 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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8 4 à l’intérieur delarégion ex-soviétique; nombre delienscommerciaux privilégiés Roumanie, baissesensibledu Bulgarie); Tchéque, Slovaquie, Hongrie, Slovénie, de l’Europe centrale(Pologne, République des échangescommerciaux entre lespays ;intensitésud delaMéditerranée stable entre pays delarivenord etpays delarive relations commerciales trés privilégiées grand ensemble:recul destraditionnelles dans lesdifférentes sous-régions dece desévolutions contrastéesmontre surtout Elleeuropéenne ausudetsud-est. la rétractionnette delarégion commerciale 03et06confirme La comparaisondescartes précision. cesévolutionsde cerner avec plusde relatif àl’échelle macrorégionale permet de l’Europe. durésidu Ladistribution l’hypothése la confirme de l’ensemble Cela latinoaméricain. deux évolutions avec l’étonnante stabilité est trés spectaculairesioncompare ces dérégionalisation

voisinages sud (rive sud de la Méditerranée) voisinages sud(rivedelaMéditerranée) intégré dans l’Europe élargie. Alorsqueles forme encore unensemble trés visibleettrés Malgré cesévolutions, levoisinage oriental de larégion européenne géographique ducommerce international Les voisins orientaux dans larecomposition quesurlesmarges.aussi bieneninterne montrent aussidesévolutions trés rapides sonexistence,de confirmer maislescartes contradictoires. Le modéleretenu permet des évolutions contrastées apparemment commerciale européenne élargie montre trés nuancée. sérieusement Larégion L’idée derégionalisation doitdoncêtre dans levoisinage oriental. de “détricotage“ soviétique del’héritage populaires). Onenretire nette impression URSS etlesPECO (anciennesdémocraties bilatéraux privilégiés entre l’ancienne dissolution rapidedeséchanges 006.06.2011 12:18:29 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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sont sensibles mais pas radicales (carte 07). sont sensiblesmaispasradicales (carte laRussie,En cequiconcerne lesévolutions évolutions diverses. URSS, onpeutdistingueraucaspardes européenne.l’Union Au seindel’ancienne mais plutôt desvoisinagesde orientaux montre qu’il n’y apasunvoisinage oriental ougroupes depays (Caucase) Kazakhstan) plusieurs pays Belarus, (Russie, Ukraine, des intensités bilatérales d’échanges de Toutefois, l’analyse détailléedel’évolution de liensprivilégiés avec l’Europe qu’entre eux. (Machrek) montrent davantageou sud-est 8 5 d’intensité d’échange restent bas. ne sontpassignificatives carlesbirapports hausse ouàlabaisse, maiscesévolutions les intensités d’échange ontévolué àla et laRoumanie).Avec l’Europe del’Ouest, Tchécoslovaquie, laHongrie, laBulgarie l’ancienne pays del’Europe centrale(surtout intensités d’échanges bilatéraux avec les Lituanie. Onremarque aussiune baissedes etpour laTurkménistan, Ouzbékistan) pays dusuddel’Asie centrale(Tadjikistan, pourlegroupeURSS ontbaissé, des surtout la Russieetleséconomiesdel’ancienne Les intensités bilatérales d’échanges entre 006.06.2011 12:18:29 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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8 6 de l’Ouest, àuneexception prés (Suéde). basses avec lespays Europe del’ancienne anciennement socialiste etbassesvoire trés moyennes avec lespays del’Europe centrale le Belarus. Les intensités d’échanges restent et l’Ukraine privilégiés avec leKazakhstan, intensité. Onvoit que les liensrestent que laRussiecommerce avec laplusgrande avec lespays Unionsoviétique del’ancienne c’est ci-dessus, la baissedécrite toujours intensités d’échanges commerciaux. Malgré géographique des stabilité delarépartition économique soviétiqueesttempérée parla L’impression de “détricotage“ del’espace échanges commerciaux de marchandises Le recul continu del’intensité des augmentation avec laRussie. des pays d’Europe,avec maisune laplupart baisse del’intensité deséchangesbilatéraux du Belarus. Dans cecas, onconstate une la CEIsontpresque identiques, àl’exception évolutions relevées pourlesautres pays de des contours géographiques stables. Les prend laformerepli d’un enbonordre avec et dansl’ancienneURSS,maisceprocessus dérégionalisation processus d’un deOn peutdoncparler dans la partie estdel’Europe danslapartie 006.06.2011 12:18:30 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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tensions récurrentes et entre l’Ukraine ne citera iciquequelquesexemples. Les ont euplusieursconséquences donton pays membrespolitiques entre certains 2006]. Troisiémement, lesmésententes de1991[Light,des traités signés àpartir fonctionner cetensemble selonlestermes de l’incapacité despays membres àfaire des échangesauseindelaCEIvient l’intensitéDeuxiémement, décroissante s’est massivement réorienté 15. vers l’UE européens d’association,leurcommerce européenne1990 àl’Union pardesaccords pays Baltes. Liés dèslemilieudesannées évolution esttrés claire danslecasdes de leursagentséconomiques. Cette elles lesouhaitent augré del’activité libres d’orienter leurcommerce comme économique etcommerciale. Ellessont soviétiques leursouveraineté enmatiére rendu àtoutes lesanciennesrépubliques l’éclatement soviétiquea del’Union a plusieurscauses. Premiérement, au seindel’ancienne URSS.Cette évolution 8 7 aux blocsdelaGuerre froide continuentde une hypothése :lesanciennesappartenances L’observation améne àformuler descartes On peutformuler plusieurshypothéses. membres. certains dissolution deslienscommerciaux entre et Géorgie) renforcera latendance àla plusieurs pays delaCEI(Turkménistan et géorgiens de parexemple). Lasortie (embargos surdesproduits moldaves politiques contreviennent àsesintérêts l’encontre pays dontleschoix decertains mesures derétorsion commerciale à la Russien’a jamaishésité àprendre des moins entre lesdeuxpays. Autre exemple, territoire russe. C’est autantd’échanges en àhaute technologied’armement surle industriesderniére àrelocaliser certains la Russieontincité parexemple cette ÉCHANGES BILATÉRAUX EN EUROPE ? LA GÉOGRAPHIE DE L’INTENSITÉ DES QUELS SONT LES DÉTERMINANTSDE 006.06.2011 12:18:31 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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8 8 l’Europe élargie. Unerégression linéaire entre laRussieetlesautres économiesde 2007], oùl’on spatiales étudielesinteractions & publié de2007[Richard Tobelem Zanin, dansunarticle réponses ontdéjàété apportés statistiques variées. Quelques élémentsde Pour lavérifier, onpeututiliserdesméthodes différents jusquedans lesannées1990. àdesblocs économies quiappartenaient et augmentant lesdistancesentre les eu Europe del’est ouEurope del’ouest) autrefois àunmêmebloc(Unionsoviétique entre leséconomiesquiappartenaient peser surleséchanges, réduisant lesdistances nécessairement queleséchanges envaleur 0,132 en2004).Cette baissenesignifie pas 0,192en1994, (coefficient dedétermination: et décroissant considérée surlapériode entre leséconomiesjouaitunrôle modeste a puainsivérifierqueladistanceeuclidienne de l’ouest) ainsiquedeseffets defrontiére. On de l’est desdémocratiespopulaires, ex-Europe (ex-URSS, ex-Europeéconomique particuliére dechaquepays àunezone de l’appartenance sépare maiségalementenfonction deseffets seulement deladistanceeuclidiennequiles zone Europe élargie enfonction non varie des échangesentre laRussieetlespays dela d’étudiermultiple permet commentl’intensité 006.06.2011 12:18:31 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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que larelation entre lepassagedefrontiére et qui n’est pasnégligeable. Etilsemblemême lorsqu’ils sontpeunombreux, jouentunrôle montre quelespassagesdefrontiéres, même etlepays d’arrivée. Lepays dedépart modéle en compte l’itinéraire entre le lepluscourt voie terrestre (route ouvoie ferrée). Onapris de l’hypothése queleséchangessefont par frontiére. descas, onestparti Danslaplupart par lamer, on n’a compté qu’un passagede que lesmarchandises échangéespassent cas, lorsqu’ilcertains existe probabilité uneforte et chacundespays européens retenus. Dans nombre minimumdepassagesentre laRussie être faitsdemultiplesfaçons. Onachoisile partenaires. Les passagesdefrontiéres peuvent de frontiéres quiséparent laRussiedeses Le paramétre dernier retenu étaitlenombre comme desfreins auxéchanges. fonctionner mais noncommedesbarriéres limites entre lesanciensblocscontinuentde dupointdevuecommercial. Lesmorts delaGuerrehérités froide nesontpasencore Cela montre quelesensemblesgéopolitiques échanges (0,811pour1994et0,7302004). elle estenbaisse)avec l’intensité bilatérale des présente corrélation (mêmesi uneplusforte Il queladistancekilométrique. déterminant l’ouest. 2 pourlaCEI,3lesPECO et4pourl’Europe de EconomiqueUnique,géopolitique :1pourl’Espace à laRussie valeur croissante enfonction del’éloignement une ensemble régional géo-économique paramétre àchaque esteffectué enattribuant l’Europe del’Ouest. Le codagequalitatifdece renvoyant età àl’Europe del’Est àl’URSS, + Turquie...), cestrois ensemblesrégionaux (PECO) soitàl’Europe del’Ouest (UE15+AELE soit àlaCEI,l’Europe centraleetorientale delaRussieappartient économies partenaires contemporains delaGuerre froide :chacunedes des trois ensemblesrégionaux européens présence detelle outelle économiedansun Le paramétre “appartenance“ désigne la pas vers plusdefluidité. l’espace économiqueeuropéen neprogresse diminuent. Cela montre simplementque 3 8 L’éloignement estdéfid’un découpage nisurlabase 9 3 . Ce paramétre est beaucoup plus . Ce paramétre estbeaucoupplus reur ( reur d’er- des avec significatif rest corrélation de coefficient le que commerciaux. partenaires leurs de tales capi- régions les et considérés pays des capitales régions les 1991. jusqu’en soviétique l’Union de partie fait ont ils car l’Ukraine et Russie la Kazakhstan, le Belarus, le que groupe me mê le dans rangés été ont baltes pays Les CAEM. du membre un pas n’était elle car l’Ouest de l’Europe distance pays, larégression montre quelerôle dela Pour Russie, Ukraine. cesquatre Kazakhstan, économie delarégion Europe élargie: Belarus, économies duvoisinageavec oriental lesautres appliquée àl’intensité deséchangesdequatre le cadre fonction loglinéaire) d’une peutêtre la distance, unerégression linéaire simple(dans (dont lestrois pays baltes) d’Assistance économiquemutuelle),(3)URSS Europe dansleConseil liéeàl’URSS dite del’Est, riverains delaMéditerranée, (2)PECO (ancienne (ancienne UE15+ex-Yougoslavie) etpays des blocsdéfinisainsi:(1)Europe del’Ouest des blocseuropéens delaGuerre froide, avec de l’influence àun deseffets d’appartenance distance euclidienneentre leséconomieset on peutvérifier l’évolution del’influence dela référence detrois ans(1994-96et2004-06), de dedeuxpériodes hypothéses. Enpartant appliquer d’autres méthodespourvérifierces On peutreprendre larégression linéaire ou –0,721 pour2004). entre –0,612pour1994et lesdeuxvariables les échangesserenforce (corrélation négative tendance à baisser dans certains cas(tabl. 4). tendance àbaisserdanscertains 6 5 4 Le aaugmenté coefficient dedétermination etcesmêmeséconomies. entre l’Ukraine échanges commerciaux demarchandises del’intensitéque 15%delavariation des n’expliquecommerciaux del’Ukraine régions capitalesdetous lespartenaires etles entre laréion capitaledel’Ukraine en 2004-2006.Cela signifie queladistance pouratteindre seulement0,15 pour l’Ukraine et sonniveau estplutôt abaissè faible. Il baissé entre deréférence lesdeuxpériodes maisilasensiblement pour leKazakhstan des échangesparladistanceestleplusélevé Le del’intensité coefficientdedétermination D’aprés le test des valeurs critiques de Bravais Pearson montre montre Pearson Bravais de critiques valeurs des test le D’aprés entre kilométrique distance la considére on aussi, cecas Dans L’ex-Yougoslavie a été rangée dans le mê me groupe que α ) inférieures à1%. ) inférieures 5 estfaiblevoire trés faibleetqu’il a 4 . En ce qui concerne . Encequiconcerne 6 006.06.2011 12:18:34 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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9 0 le test duChi onpeut égalementutiliser d’appartenance, Pour lepoidsdeseffets vérifier conclure qu’il joueunrôle significatif. tropactuellement bas(0,36et0,38)pour pour leBelarusetlaRussiemaisilest fort. Lesfort. chiffres indiquésdansle tableau esttrés etleseffectifs théoriques observés Premiérement, l’écart entre leseffectifs On peuttirer deuxconclusionsprincipales. effectifs (tabl. théoriques 5). de comparer avec leseffectifs des ainsiobservés de pays A,BetCpourlesquatre pays retenus et danslesgroupes serépartissent les birapports par lemodéle. Le test consiste àvoir comment est plusoumoinsconforme àleurestimation dontlavaleur des échangesbilatéraux observés entre compris 0,5et1,5indiquent birapports dupostulatqueles 1,5. Cette discrétisation part classes :inférieur à à0,5,de0,51,5,supérieur est discrétisé danstrois avec unerépartition quatre pays deréférence ettous lesautres d’intensitéLe birapport d’échanges entre les UE 15+ex-Yougoslavie +pays méditerranéens). (groupe A:ex-URSS ;groupe B:PECO; groupe C: élargie danslestrois groupes susmentionnés tous lespays delarégionrépartir européenne échanges desquatre pays suffitde choisis. Il d’influence surlagéographie del’intensité des blocs régionaux delaGuerre froide n’ont plus leslimiteschute desgrands dumurdeBerlin, soviétiqueetplusde20ansaprésl’Union la que plusde15ansaprés de ladisparition qualitative.est unevariable L’hypothése est entre deuxvariables, dont uneaumoins relation devérifierl’hypothése d’une permet et etuneffectifun effectif observé théorique kan 05 , 03 0,15 0,38 0,36 0,52 –0,39 –0,61 –0,6 –0,72 0,3 0,33 0,59 0,29 –0,54 –0,58 –0,77 –0,54 Ukraine Russie Kazakhstan Belarus entre le log du birapport d’intensité d’échange et le log de la distance kilométrique distance la de log le et d’échange d’intensité birapport du log le entre 2 quimesure ladéviationentre Tabl. Coeffi 4. corrélation Coeffi cient de corrélation (r) coeffi et corrélation de cient cient 9219 2004–2006 1992–1994 détermination Coeffi cient On constate mêmequeleChi notamment pourleBelarusetKazakhstan. des échangescommerciaux bilatéraux, un rôle danslagéographie del’intensité que l’effet continuedejouer d’appartenance une marge d’erreur bilatéraux “ sontbiendépendantes (avec appartenance “et“ intensité deséchanges indiquentquelesvariables ci-dessus “ augmente pourlaRussie. Danstrois cassur Deuxiémement, leChi Deuxiémement, Europe àl’ancienne del’Ouest. appartient que l’intensité soitfaiblesilepays choisi intenses. chancespour Etilyadefortes ces quatre économiessoientmoyennement chances pourqueseséchangesavecfortes Europeà l’ancienne (PECO), del’Est ilyade intenses. Inversement, siunpays appartient soient laRussieetl’Ukraine le Kazakhstan, pour queseséchangesavec leBelarus, l’ancienne URSS,ilyadetrés chances fortes d’autres à termes, siunpays appartient augmente danslecasdelaRussie. En on constate queleChi notamment auseindel’ancienne URSS.Mais économique del’espace européen, “détricotage“ del’anciennerégionalisation pays surquatre. l’idée Ce quiconfirme de Tabl. 5. Chi2 observé (relation entre appartenance appartenance entre (relation observé Tabl. 5.Chi2 kan 52 26,38 32,92 35,1 43,6 35,23 30,78 45,1 53,63 Ukraine Russie Kazakhstan Belarus géopolitique des pays et intensité des échanges échanges des intensité et pays des géopolitique cient de détermination ( avec 4 pays du voisinage oriental) voisinage du 4pays avec (marge d’erreur α=1%) d’erreur (marge corrélation Coeffi cient 9219 2004–2006 1992–1994 α 2 =1%).Cela signifie reste trés élevé etqu’il 2 baissepourtrois r 2) détermination Coeffi cient 2 observé observé 006.06.2011 12:18:34 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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. Baldwin, R.(1997) The causesofRegionalism. The World Economy, 3. Vol. 27,N7, Balassa, B. (1962) The Londres: of EconomicIntegration. Allen&Unwin,Theory 304p. 2. Anderson,J.E., van Wincoop, withGravitas: E.(2003)Gravity ASolutionto theBorder Puz- 1. l’Europe, ladistanceeuclidienneentre les 1998].Encequiconcerne & Ünal-Kensenci, commerciale despays [Freudenberg, Gaulier despécialisationéconomiqueet ou lestypes lesquelsl’existenceparmi delienscoloniaux paramétres entrent doncenligne decompte ont desintensités d’échanges élevées. D’autres éloignés, basses alorsqued’autres, pourtant pays voisins ontdesintensités d’échanges trés pas leseulparamétre carcertains déterminant ces ensemblesmacrorégionaux. ellen’est Mais euclidienne) joueunrôle danslaconstitutionde La proximité géographique (distance apparaissent clairement. différentes, sensibles desévolutions parfois mêmes indicateurs, choisisàdeuxpériodes régiond’une àl’autre. Enreprésentant ces leur organisation sensiblement varie interne ensembles ainsimisenlumière. On voit que defairepermet descomparaisonsentre les prédites. Al’échelle mondiale, cetindicateur valeurs d’échanges etdesvaleurs observées decomparerde tailleetellepermet des de plusieursavantages: elleeffaceleseffets intensités commerciales bilatérales présente taille économiquedespays. L’analyse des indicateurs quinesontpasbiaisésparla desà jourcesensemblesestd’utiliser multiétatiques. Lameilleure façondemettre autres auseind’ensembles géographiques entre deséconomiesproches lesunesdes signe croissance d’une rapidedesinteractions La régionalisation ducommerce mondialestle Conclusion tout demême. EtpourlaRussieilserenforce. qu’au débutdesannées1990maisilreste fort quatre, l’effet estdoncmoinsfort appartenance RÉFÉRENCES 9 1 pp. 865–888. zle. EconomicReview, American Vol. 93,N1,pp. 170–92. parler de parler se demanders’il nevaudraitpasmieux ont été clairement identifiés. Enfin,onpeut puisque plusieursensemblessousrégionaux que delarégionalisation européenne, vaudraitmieuxparler Il de l’Europe, n’a pasuncaractére homogéne. régionalisation commerciale, dansetautour Proche Par etleMoyen Orient. ailleurs, la par exemple), maisellesreculent avec le (Afrique duNord) voire croissantes (ex-URSS économiques avec levoisinage sontfortes Lesnon fermée surelle-même. interactions régionalisation et européenne estouverte instables. Cela montre àquelpointla Seslimites sontl’Europe elle-même. européenneles limites del’Union etde commerciale européenne excéde largement L’extension géographique delarégion résorbent lentement. produites enEurope pendantlaguerre froide se montrent àquelpointlesdiscontinuités spatiales & [Richard hérités Tobelem Zanin,2007]qui géopolitique àdeseffets d’appartenance rapport économies jouemêmeunrôle secondaire par sont sensibles. totalement effacéesmaislesévolutions de laGuerre froide nesontpasencore des clivagespolitiquesetidéologiques discontinuités géographiques héritées se décomposerpetitàpetit.Les grandes lui, reste bienvisibletout encontinuantde l’Ouest. L’ancien blocsoviétique, quantà populaires) finitdeserecoller àl’Europe de Europe (celledesdémocraties del’Est indicateurs [Broadmann, 2005].L’ancienne fondées surd’autres méthodesetd’autres lesrésultatsce quiconfirmerait d’études l’est etde “re-régionalisation“ aucentre, dérégionalisation des régionalisations del’Europe à 006.06.2011 12:18:34 6

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9 4 of Productivity and Biochemical Cycleof Productivity of Geography conference,This “The entitled 2010 is the100 100 to conference the convened a dedicated ofSoilDokuchaev Scientists, Society of theMoscow State University and the Agricultural Sciences), withparticipation Soil Science Institute (Russian Academy of Academy ofSciences), and theDokuchaev and Agrochemistry (Siberian Branch, Russian of Sciences), theInstitute of Soil Science Problems in Soil Science (Russian Academy Institute ofPhysicochemical and Biological Academy ofSciences), together withthe InstituteThe ofGeography (Russian biogeochemistry. geobotany, landscape science, ecology, and general soil science and soil geography, reference lists ofuniversity courses in remain and articles high onthe books her years, 40 than more For publications. holdingindex, due place among classic Bazilevich’s still studies have ahigh citation Prof. by Bazilevich. others, among up advances in thescientific pioneered, field scientific community has to decided sum the date, remarkable this commemorate to thedevelopment oftheir ideas. To Grigor’ev and contributedand A.A. Vernadsky, V.I. Dokuchaev, V.V. as such Russian scientists ofthe20 the cohort of encyclopedically educated and whohas ecology represented worthily in soil science, biogeochemistry, geography, Natalia Bazilevich, an outstanding specialist N.I. CONFERENCE TO100 THE OF LANDSCAPES BIOGEOCHEMICAL TURNOVER AND THE PRODUCTIVITY th anniversary of Bazilevich’s birth. birth. Bazilevich’s of anniversary BAZILEVICH (MOSCOWBAZILEVICH th anniversary of the birth of anniversary ofthebirth th century, century, TH REGION, APRIL ANNIVERSARY OF PROF. (Moscow Region) onApril 19 to 22, 20101 Terrestrial Landscapes,” was heldin Pushchino (a book Titlyanova with A.A. and Bazilevich N.I. by CD-ROM) 3 2 1 the beginning oftheconference. tems), Tishkov, A.A., Ed., Novosibirsk: SO RAPN, 2008. RAPN, SO Novosibirsk: Ed., tems), Tishkov, A.A., Ecosys- Land Natural in Elements Ash and Nitrogen Continents: 2010. Pushchino, Eds., Tishkov, A.A., and 19–22, G.V., April 2010: V.N., Kudeyarov, Region, Dobrovol’skii, Moscow Pushchino, Bazilevich, N.I. Prof. of Birth the of versary Anni- 100th tothe Dedicated Conf. Proc. Landscapes. restrial (2011, #5). (a book with CD-ROM) acceptedThe and invited abstracts lectures Belarus, Norway, Germany, and Great Britain. teams in working 20 Russian cities and also in of149abstracts communications from research the whole, theOrganizing Committee received and carbon and newmethods for studying productivity turnovermatter and role ofthebiota dynamics, in its and land soil ecosystem organic functioning, in land landscapes, modeling ofbiogeochemical cycles ecosystems.terrestrial landscapes, turnover carbon in terrestrial productivity, in thebiogeochemical cycle Onwere as follows: thegeography oflandscape problemsOther addressed at theconference of her biography.heritage and newaspects scientific Bazilevich’s to directly devoted were sessionplenary and round-table discussion of participation by young specialists. first The atmosphere and was marked by ahigh degree Soil Science, proceeded in a friendly working Physicochemical and Biological Problems in conference,The by hosted theInstitute of Bazilevich, N.I. and Titlyanova, A.A., Biotic Turnover on the Five Five Turnover the on Biotic A.A., Titlyanova, and N.I. Bazilevich, Cycle Ter- of Biochemical and Productivity of Geography The Full report is to be published in “Pochvovedenie” magazine 2 and themonograph 3 were published by 2010) 006.06.2011 12:18:34 6 1 . 0 . 6 . 2 0 1 1

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Negative CO Pushchino) in his “Assessment lecture of and Biological Problems in Soil Science, Physicochemical of (Institute Kudeyarov V.N. and functioning. providing for sustainability in their structure ecosystems, withtheir exclusive dynamism these are ofall productive themost land continents.the five results Its show that grassland savannas, and their analogs on in and thesteppes, prairies, production stocks of parameters characterizing phytomass presented acomparative geographic analysis Agrochemistry, Novosibirsk). author The A.A. Titlyanova (Instituteof theWorld’s Grassland Ecosystems” by of Soil Science “Productivity session withthelecture began and the welcome address by V.N. Kudeyarov, the the present-day significance ofher ideas. After devoted to Bazilevich’s scientific heritage and notedAs above, session plenary was thefirst of Geography, and Dokuchaev Soil RAS, Tsarevskaya N.G. (Institute and Pankova, New LifePortrait ofthe Scientist, Heritage, and of “Natalia lecture The Ivanovna Bazilevich: Ideas”burozem soils. by A.A.in this region accounts for the formation of Tishkov,regime of ecosystem observed functioning Teberda Nature and showed that Reserve the E.I.of theforest (1400–1900 belt ma.s.l.) in the on biogeochemical turnover in ecosystems to 1980s. The author consideredin her comprehensive ofthe1960s studies recent data data presentation established by Bazilevich which traditions hefollowed of thebest in Forests,” Conifer Mountain in Formation “Biogeochemical Turnoverlecture and Soil Moscow State University) presented the VladychenskiiA.S. (Faculty ofSoil Science, gases. other in theatmospheric turnover ofCO soil cover as awholeholdthekey position in land ecosystems CO is atmospheric of of 25–40% soilApproximately origin, and the present-day models balance. ofcarbon for Bazilevich by made estimates of of Russia” emphasized thesignificance 9 5 2 Balance ontheTerritory 2 and and 2

Geochemistry, Siberian Branch, RAS, Irkutsk). Irkutsk). RAS, Branch, Siberian Geochemistry, Grebenshchikova Institute (Vinogradov of andKyzyl); P.V. Kuznetsov, Yashin, I.M. and V.I. of Natural Resources, Siberian Branch, RAS, SambuuA.D. (Tuva Institute for Exploration Scientific Center, Murmansk Region); RAS, of Industrial Kola Ecology oftheNorth, and Productivity, Moscow, RAS, and Institute Ecology Forest of (Center Belova E.A. and N.V. Orlova, T.T. Lukina, M.A. Gorbacheva, Forest, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk); RAS, Bezkorovainaya (Sukachev Institute of Systems, Siberian Branch, Tomsk); RAS, I.V. for Monitoring Climatic and Ecological also were sessions this at presentations Interesting given by nature.of its E.A.necromass and expressed his understanding Golovatskaya anewclassificationproposed ofplant “Necromass in Natural Biogeocenoses” Moscow State University) in his lecture (InstituteL.O. Karpachevskii (Faculty ofSoil Science, problems. global of into number a insights to gain attempts in used are and relevant remain Even today, later, decades thesematerials database (1993) and making computer maps. experiencethe first in digitizing Bazilevich’s Institute, Moscow). described lecturer The Shvidenkoand A.Z. (Dokuchaev Soil Science and Annual Production” (by V.A. Rozhkov First Digital Maps ofPhytomass, Mortmass, “The withthelecture ecosystems. Itopened ofzonal and intrazonalon theproductivity second sessionThe was devoted to studies N.V. Lukina. V.A. Rozhkov, L.O. Karpachevskii, and I.V. Ivanov, Tishkov, A.A. Yu.G. Puzachenko, A.A. Titlyanova, T.V. Tursina, E.I. Pankova, in April 20, was taken where by thefloor the evening round-table discussion held at addressed were problems same The ecology, and geography. of severaldevelopment ofher ideas lying at thebasis researchthe biography Bazilevich ofN.I. and the Institute, Moscow) dealt withnewdata for fields in soil science, 006.06.2011 12:18:35 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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9 6 the Volga Basin, Tolyatti) RAS, considered RozenbergG.S. (Institute oftheEcology of balance.of Russian forests to theglobal carbon calculations for estima L.S.and Possible Solutions” presented original Sharaya, BudgetinCarbon Russian Forests: Problems State University) “Estimations in thelecture of E.G. and FacultyRAS, ofGeography, Moscow Kolomyts,(Center ofForest Ecology and Productivity, Zamolodchikov, G.N. Kraev, and D.G. Shmelev forand mineralization. capacity D.G. and composition, conditions ofstabilization, on themethodological approach to contemplate naturein SoilPhysicochemical of and Biological Problems soil Science, of (Institute V.M. Semenov particular, In organicsoils, and landscapes terrestrial in exchange Pushchino) was matter, session, fourth dealingThe withcarbon especially itsdepressions. used from salinized soils ofwaterlogged steppe rich a newa possible way soil formation ofsolod is that in presentations. by T.V. Tursina confirm Bazilevich’s idea that noted that data reported It should the be Problems in Soil Science, Moscow Region). (Institute ofPhysicochemical and Biological Rating” by I.V. Priputina and V.N. Bashkin Peninsula for the Purposes ofEcological Mass Balance in Ecosystems oftheYamal and “Assessment ofParameters ofNitrogen (Belarusian State University, Minsk, Belarus); Karpichenko and A.A. Chertko by N.K. Agrolandscapes” in Elements Chemical of Turnover Balance and “Biogeochemical (Dokuchaev Soil Science Institute, Moscow); Accounting for Formation” Their by T.V. Tursina Soils ofSubarid Landscales and Processes Science, Moscow RAS, Region); “Solodized Evolution, Moscow, RAS, and Institute ofForest Abaturov Institute (Severtsov ofEcology and N.Yu. by B.D. Rangelands” and Kulakova Steppe of Ecosystems in Elements Ash the following: “Turnover ofNitrogen and noteworthy were the session, particularly presented lectures at Among landscapes. biogeochemical turnover in terrestrial problems in of thestudy considered At third participants the session, the ting the contributionting the In the lecture “Reflections ofRecent and “Reflections In thelecture of farmlands and their overgrowing by forest. place today due to large-scale abandonment agrogenic successions, including thosetaking and other elements in soils in thecourse of were devoted to thebehavior ofcarbon A number ofpresentations at this session mountain ecosystems oftheCaucasus. Scientific Center, for Rostov-on-Don) RAS, Moscow State University; and Southern of Geography,E.G. Morgun, Golubeva and(Institute N.I. RAS;tropical forests ofVietnam, and by I.V. Kovda, FacultyTropical Center, HoChi Minh City, Vietnam), for of SoilRusso-Vietnamese Science and Technology Science,in Soil Science, Moscow Region; and Joint Problems Biological Physicochemical and and Evolution, Moscow; RAS, Institute of Gerenu etal. Institute (Severtsov ofEcology tropical forests ofIndonesia; by V.O. de Lopez University, Germany) Goettingen, for moist Moscow State University; and Georg-August Roskilde;of Denmark, Faculty ofGeography, Evolution, Moscow; RAS, Technical University et al. Institute (Severtsov ofEcology and Transbaikalia; A.V. by for Ulan-Ude) Ol’chev Experimental Biology, Siberian Branch, RAS, Yu.B. Tsybenov etal. (Institute ofGeneral and balance ofcarbon aspects were presented by of organic Data carbon. concerning regional and obtain newdata ontrends in thebehavior acomparativeperform geographic analysis to that them allowed methods typological authors original developed cartographic and fixation in geochemical landscapes. These the results ofconstructing amap ofcarbon Science, Moscow State University) presented of Ecological Soil Science, Faculty ofSoil I.O. Alyabina and (Institute Bogatyrev L.G. to equilibrium. close are stands old-growth whereas and mineralization production in accumulate carbon, mature stands and aged evidence that, among forests, fir medium- Institute ofForest, Krasnoyarsk) provided of Central Siberia” by E.F. Vedrova (Sukachev Forests Boreal in Fluxes Carbon “Biogenic conditions balancecarbon in forest ecosystems under ofthe results of ofmodeling and prediction global warming. The lecture 006.06.2011 12:18:35 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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State University, and Scott Polar Research (FacultyRees ofGeography, Moscow Golubeva, O.V.E.I. Tutubalina, and W.G. and their ratio. Plyushkyavichyute, Yu.A. ontemperature,production precipitation, a strong nonlinear dependence ofnet volume (entropy) and and showed structure understanding ofthis space in terms of the Biosphere.” author presented The his Climatic was entitled Space “The RAS) of Institute(Severtsov ofEcology and Evolution, by opening Yu.G. lecture The Puzachenko determiningand factors their parameters. in on productivity, studies biological turnover, session was devoted fifth toThe newmethods and soil organic matter. to fallow lands in terms ofthefate ofhumus interesting conclusions as to what happens at arrived and Russia European of lands the course ofrestorative succession in fallow the extent and potential sink ofcarbon in Lands ofRussia.” authors evaluated These “Atmospheric Deposition Carbon in Fallow lecture the presented Germany) Oldenburg, Geography, Moscow, RAS, and University of O.Yu. Kalinina, Giani and L. (Institute of D.I. Lyuri, plowing. of result S.V.these soils has decreased by 25–70% as a Goryachkin,recent when thehumus period, content of Late Glacial to Subatlantic time and in the ofchernozemsin theproperties during the N.A. adetailed analysisperformed ofchanges of paleopedological Karavaeva, data, these authors Current State ofHumus Profile.” Onthebasis Chernozem Zone: ofFormation History and “Chernozemlecture Soils oftheCentral State University, Belgorod) presented the and Geography,Faculty ofGeology Belgorod and Pushchino, Science, Soil in Problems (Institute ofPhysicochemical and Biological I.V.method. Ivanov and Yu.G. Chendeev of changes in arable soils by thephytolith Moscow) theresults described ofindication and Dokuchaev Soil ScienceRAS, Institute, and I.V. KuznetsovaPodzolic Soils,” A.A. Gol’eva, N.P. Sorokina, of Biogenic Silica over (Institute theProfiles ofSoddy Past Agrogenic in theDistribution Impacts of Geography, 9 7 being consistent withof humus horizon formation, withtheresults data by R.V. Desyatkin time characteristic to the estimate possible Vladimir Opolye region. This made it model the of soils interrelated geochemically in a mathematical dynamics ofcarbon model Science, Moscow State University) presented discussion. T.A. Arkhangelskaya (Faculty ofSoil stimulatedwas abridged, thelectures avivid eruption in Iceland. program Although its on time oftheEyjafjallajokull because volcano chairman, whocould not arrive from Europe Komarov,A.S. organizer its and intended in theabsenceProductivity”began of Biogeochemical Cycles and Ecosystem session sixth –“Modeling ofThe vegetation. and topography of southern taiga landscapes ontheir on thedependence oftheproductivity remote sensing and methods in field studies demonstrated thepossibility ofcombining Institute ofGeography, Moscow) RAS, Institute ofEcology and Evolution and Krenke Sandlerskii (Severtsov andR.B. A.N. carbon fluxes. for on studies ample opportunities offer methods experimental that field showed Meadow Ecosystem in Central Russia” Balanceof Carbon Components in a “In Situin thelecture Determination State Agricultural University, Moscow) in Soil Science, Pushchino, and Timiryazev Problems Physicochemical Biological and V.O. Lopez de Gerenu Peninsula. Kola the et al.Research, Norway). Both on were performed (Institute Institute and Norwegian Apatity; for Nature ofInstitute ofIndustrial Ecology oftheNorth, of Geography, Moscow State University; Ecology and Productivity, Moscow; Faculty Orlova etal. (Center by M.A. lecture ofForest positionsfrom newmethodological in the considered were ecotones forest–tundra in Interrelations vegetation and soil between phytomass in thetaiga–tundra ecotone. methods in theassessment ofaboveground thepossibilitiesanalyzed ofremote sensing Institute, University ofCambridge, UK) 006.06.2011 12:18:35 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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9 8 N.I. Bazilevich,N.I. and her name will longbe without referring to thedata obtained by to answer is difficult climate change in processesfactors responsible for recent contributions ofnatural and anthropogenic soils as question to in it.The what are the of global balance carbon and therole of for theincreasing interest in theproblems evidence conference provided the has First, heritage in thepresent period. Bazilevich’s ideas, and scientific books, and the relevance and significance of brief outline oftheresults oftheconference In conclusion, itappears appropriate to give a innitrogen thebiosphere. cycle componentsin theratio ofthe between 2008)Titlyanova, and revealed newtrends in Natural Ecosystems Land (Bazilevich and Elements Ash and Nitrogen Continents: Five Biotic Turnover monograph the from onthe inphytomass land ecosystems fractions initial data onthenitrogen contents ofbasic Biotic Turnover: the analyzed Global Aspect” “The Production–Destruction Link of the Agrochemistry, Novosibirsk) in thelecture A.S. Naumov Ecosystems.” Forest in Elements Chemical of (Institute “Modeling Cycles theBiogeochemical lecture also presented Komarov’s asynopsis ofA.S. of in centralpracticed Soil European Russia. He Scienceagriculture and forest management traditional of variants different in carbon and results ofmodeling thedynamics ofsoil in Soil Science, Pushchino) describedthe of Physicochemical and Biological Problems to her Bobrivskii data. etal. (Institute M.B. withphytomass stock obtained and production many of values The Bazilevich. by made models theresults withcalculationsjuxtaposing provedestimates ofplant cover productivity, model regional and global of analysis toSciences, Moscow) made acomparative be similarAtmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of L.L. Golubyatnikov (Obukhov Institute of I.V.and Dubrovina. micromorphological data by A.O. Makeev on dating Yakutian alass soils and with T.G. Gil’manov, and their followers. Today, Komarov, D.O. Logofet, L.L. Golubyatnikov, byexplored Yu.M. Svirezhev, Tarko, A.M. A.S. this research successfully has field been models constructed in the1980s. Thereafter, mathematical in included were data her of zonal and intrazonal ecosystems, and ofconceptualconstruction balance models Third,RAS. is outat carried major scientific centres of systems). Research in landscape productivity N.I.Landsat, Terra, IRS, Aqua, and other satellite SPOT, the of channels spectral infrared and signalsdifference between in thevisible red Bazilevichon thebasis ofremote sensing data (from the vegetation (NDVI), index which is determined by means ofthenormalized difference assessment production ofnetprimary and comparative analysis ofdata onthe particular, theyare used for interpretation have processed been and systematized. In ofzonal landscapes,productivity which initiatedthe results ofBazilevich’s onthe studies to paid is attention consisten10t Second, studies. recent 100-cmassessment layer,to butlimited this aspect herself to the the of Bazilevich alsodecades. paid attention soil as in thepastwhich has observed been carbon do many land return and its to theatmosphere, in the authors dioxide carbon absorptionbetween on uppercan help reveal thecauses ofimbalance the of role of Carbon” (2009) notes that on studies of pedosphere“Pedolithogenesis and Continental Cycles Glazovskaya in her recent monograph M.A. that is fact in interesting An convention. theseChange and theKyoto Protocol to this cyclesFramework Convention onClimate United Nations the implementing for in theelaboration ofscientific foundations engaged centers at pursued consistently This andcarbon in global fluxes. carbon aspect(humus) and hydrogenic (carbonates) of soils in of theaccumulation ofbiogenic Bazilevich’smentioned in discussions onthekey role research is 006.06.2011 12:18:35 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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of Geography (Siberian Branch, Russian Russian Branch, (Siberian Geography of of Soil Science and Agrochemistry, Institute Sciences); Institute ofGeochemistry, Institute Institute (Russian Academy ofAgricultural Academy ofSciences); Dokuchaev Soil Science of theInstitute ofGeography (Russian Department ofSoil Geography and Evolution Chemistry, Analytical and Geochemistry of Problems in Soil Science, Vernadsky Institute Institute ofPhysicochemical and Biological at the Such are studies performed actively chemical compounds in theatmosphere. various of concentrations and respiration make gas measurements to determine soil soils,element composition ofplants, animals, to promptly obtain detailed data onthe and possible make it technologies analytical naturalconvergent structure. Newmethods and on other continents, including thosewith watersbiogeochemical cycles in zonal ecosystems with generalized data obtained in of studies asresults ofhis/her own observations local wellprovided for aresearcher to compare the as globalof its scope and theopportunity to great has attracted book interest because materials Bazilevich’s from N.I. archive. This (Bazilevich and 2008) Titlyanova, based on ElementsAsh in Natural Ecosystems” Land and Nitrogen Turnover Continents: Five the on by thepublication “Biotic ofthemonograph noted above, theconference was marked turnover is also today. being developed As concerning thegeography ofbiogeochemical line ofBazilevich’s the researchFourth, of theRAS. such are studies at many underway institutes 9 9 this great scientist. woman the profound viewsand extensive foresight of in this field,above publications ofother authors working which isindex both in Russia and abroad, ranking high additionalbiogeochemistry have a very high citation evidenceideas. Her in studies different branches of for advancementfor further ofBazilevich’s level oftheir presentations are prerequisites andamong theparticipants thehigh scientific ofyoung large scientistsThe proportion of Russia and territories ofbordering countries. extensively, covering all geographic regions research in soil science developed has been it should be noted that the biological lineSumming up theresults oftheconference, of ecology. specialized in soil science, geography, and postgraduate students and young researchers was focused onachievements made by session (a total 20 ofabout presentations) to to give and theposter three two lectures, session, an theywere opportunity offered interest from young scientists. At every majorand her pioneering attracted studies It is noteworthy that Bazilevich’sUniversity); and many other centers. personalityEcological Soil Science (Moscow State Fluxes in thePedosphere, Institute of Turnover Matter Energy of and Laboratory and Soil Geography, Faculty of Geography; Geochemistry Landscape of Department General Soil Science, Faculty ofSoil Science; Academy ofSciences); of Department Arkady A.Tishkov 006.06.2011 12:18:35 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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1 0 0 “GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, Circulation 300ex. Digital print 55 p. sh. Format 32 Order Ngi410 21.12.2010 issentinto print It E-mail: [email protected] Fax 7-495-9167673 Phone 7-495-9167574 Nizhnyaya Syromyatnicheskaya, 5/7,2 105120Russia Moscow andPublishingAdvertising Agency “Advanced Solutions” E-mail: [email protected] Fax 7-495-9328836 Phone 7-495-9392923 Faculty ofGeography, 2108a Gory,Leninskie 119991Russia Moscow M.V. Lomonosov State University Moscow EDITORIAL OFFICE registration: ПИМФС77-29285,2007,August 30. in sphere ofmasscommunicationsandprotection ofaculturalheritage. of The certificate ofthelegislation The magazineisregistered ofobservance inFederal onsupervision service magazineThe is published withfinancial oftheRussian support Geographical Society. ofGeography andInstitute University oftheRussianAcademy ofSciences FOUNDERS OF THE MAGAZINE: No. 04(v. 03)2010 ISSN 2071-9388 DESIGN & SUSTAINABILITY” SOCIALLY SCIENTIFIC MAGAZINE ½ PRINTING 46cm/2 Faculty ofGeography, M.V. Lomonosov State Moscow 006.06.2011 12:18:35 6 . 0 6 . 2 0 1 1

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