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The A.Q.Khan Network: Causes and Implications Stichting Laka: Documentatie- en onderzoekscentrum kernenergie De Laka-bibliotheek The Laka-library Dit is een pdf van één van de publicaties in This is a PDF from one of the publications de bibliotheek van Stichting Laka, het in from the library of the Laka Foundation; the Amsterdam gevestigde documentatie- en Amsterdam-based documentation and onderzoekscentrum kernenergie. research centre on nuclear energy. Laka heeft een bibliotheek met ongeveer The Laka library consists of about 8,000 8000 boeken (waarvan een gedeelte dus ook books (of which a part is available as PDF), als pdf), duizenden kranten- en tijdschriften- thousands of newspaper clippings, hundreds artikelen, honderden tijdschriftentitels, of magazines, posters, video's and other posters, video’s en ander beeldmateriaal. material. Laka digitaliseert (oude) tijdschriften en Laka digitizes books and magazines from the boeken uit de internationale antikernenergie- international movement against nuclear beweging. power. De catalogus van de Laka-bibliotheek staat The catalogue of the Laka-library can be op onze site. De collectie bevat een grote found at our website. The collection also verzameling gedigitaliseerde tijdschriften uit contains a large number of digitized de Nederlandse antikernenergie-beweging en magazines from the Dutch anti-nuclear power een verzameling video's. movement and a video-section. Laka speelt met oa. haar informatie- Laka plays with, amongst others things, its voorziening een belangrijke rol in de information services, an important role in the Nederlandse anti-kernenergiebeweging. Dutch anti-nuclear movement. Appreciate our work? Feel free to make a small donation. Thank you. www.laka.org | [email protected] | Ketelhuisplein 43, 1054 RD Amsterdam | 020-6168294 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS THE A. Q. KHAN NETWORK: CAUSES AND IMPLICATIONS by Christopher O. Clary December 2005 Thesis Co-Advisors: Peter R. Lavoy Feroz Hassan Khan Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 2005 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: 5. FUNDING NUMBERS The A. Q. Khan Network: Causes and Implications 6. AUTHOR(S): Christopher O. Clary 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION REPORT Monterey, CA 93943-5000 NUMBER 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) The A. Q. Khan nuclear supplier network constitutes the most severe loss of control over nuclear technology ever. For the first time in history all of the keys to a nuclear weapon—the supplier networks, the material, the enrichment technology, and the warhead designs—were outside of state oversight and control. This thesis demonstrates that Khan’s nuclear enterprise evolved out of a portion of the Pakistani procurement network of the 1970s and 1980s. It presents new information on how the Pakistani state organized, managed, and oversaw its nuclear weapons laboratories. This thesis provides extensive documentation of command and control challenges faced by Pakistan and argues that Khan was largely a rogue actor outside of state oversight. The A. Q. Khan affair refutes more optimistic theories about the effects of nuclear proliferation. This case study indicates that states have a difficult time balancing an abstract notion of safety against pressing needs for organizational speed and flexibility. This thesis enumerates enabling institutional factors in Pakistan, which allowed Khan’s enterprise to continue and flourish, and which might also be generalizable to other states of proliferation concern. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF Abdul Qadeer Khan, Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons PAGES 117 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THE A. Q. KHAN NETWORK: CAUSES AND IMPLICATIONS Christopher Oren Clary Civilian, Department of the Navy B.A., Wichita State University, 2001 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2005 Author: Christopher O. Clary Approved by: Peter R. Lavoy Thesis Co-Advisor Feroz Hassan Khan Thesis Co-Advisor Douglas Porch Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT The A. Q. Khan nuclear supplier network constitutes the most severe loss of control over nuclear technology ever. For the first time in history all of the keys to a nuclear weapon—the supplier networks, the material, the enrichment technology, and the warhead designs—were outside of state oversight and control. This thesis demonstrates that Khan’s nuclear enterprise evolved out of a portion of the Pakistani procurement network of the 1970s and 1980s. It presents new information on how the Pakistani state organized, managed, and oversaw its nuclear weapons laboratories. This thesis provides extensive documentation of command and control challenges faced by Pakistan and argues that Khan was largely a rogue actor outside of state oversight. The A. Q. Khan affair refutes more optimistic theories about the effects of nuclear proliferation. This case study indicates that states have a difficult time balancing an abstract notion of safety against pressing needs for organizational speed and flexibility. This thesis enumerates enabling institutional factors in Pakistan, which allowed Khan’s enterprise to continue and flourish, and which might also be generalizable to other states of proliferation concern. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................1 B. BACKGROUND ..............................................................................................2 C. THE OPTIMISM-PESSIMISM DEBATE....................................................4 1. The Norm of Norm Defiance.............................................................14 2. The Uranium Route ...........................................................................14 3. Covert Weapons Programs ...............................................................15 4. Weak Institutions and Personalized Rule........................................16 5. A Weak Shadow of the Future..........................................................17 6. The Limits of Vicarious Learning ....................................................17 D. PREVIEW ......................................................................................................18 1. From Illicit Procurement to Proliferation .......................................18 2. The First Time is Special: Khan’s Assistance to Iran ....................18 3. The Problem of Background Noise: Khan’s Assistance to North Korea........................................................................................19 4. Tragic Ambition: Libya and Nuclear Off-Shoring.........................19 5. Conclusion ..........................................................................................19 E. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................20 II. FROM ILLICIT PROCUREMENT TO PROLIFERATION ..............................21 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................21 B. OUTRACING THE NONPROLIFERATION REGIME..........................21 C. IF YOU PLAY IN THE MUD ......................................................................29 D. AN UNHEALTHY RIVALRY .....................................................................30 E. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................35 III. THE FIRST TIME IS SPECIAL: KHAN’S ASSISTANCE TO IRAN................37 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................37
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