A Spatially Detailed Locomotive Emission Model and Goods Movement Data Constraints on Public Policy and Planning
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Research Report – UCD-ITS-RR-10-50 A Spatially Detailed Locomotive Emission Model and Goods Movement Data Constraints on Public Policy and Planning March 2010 Gregory Rowangould Institute of Transportation Studies ◦ University of California, Davis 1605 Tilia Street ◦ Davis, California 95616 PHONE (530) 752-6548 ◦ FAX (530) 752-6572 www.its.ucdavis.edu A Spatially Detailed Locomotive Emission Model and Goods Movement Data Constraints on Public Policy and Planning By GREGORY MATTHEW GOULD B.S. (University of Maine, Orono) 2003 M.S. (University of Maine, Orono) 2006 DISSERTATION Submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Civil and Environmental Engineering in the OFFICE OF GRADUATE STUDIES of the UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA DAVIS Approved: _______________________________________ Dr. Deb Niemeier, Chair _______________________________________ Dr. Susan Handy _______________________________________ Dr. Jay Lund Committee in Charge 2010 -i- ABSTRACT The first part of this dissertation develops a new theoretically consistent GIS based locomotive emission model which improves the accuracy of current inventory methods while also increasing the spatial detail. Greater spatial resolution is important for considering local effects and environmental justice concerns. The model increases accuracy and spatial detail by considering the effect of track grade, train type and the local (route specific) locomotive fleet on fuel consumption. Further improvement is gained by developing emission factors that are specific to the local locomotive fleet. The modeling platform also allows the user to easily change model inputs and view results in a map or table at multiple geographic scales. How engineering and economic modeling is used to support public financing decisions for the provision of private rail infrastructure is also investigated. Public assistance for private rail infrastructure is a growing national trend in the effort to increase the share of goods moved by rail. Project applications for public funds provided by California's Trade Corridors Improvement Fund which allocates $3 billion for goods movement infrastructure improvements are taken as a case study. The modeling and assumptions completed by each applicant seeking funds for rail projects are reviewed. The study finds a large variety or mostly ad-hoc modeling methods and unsupported assumptions. The most critical finding is the lack of a theoretically sound method which assesses the cost, benefits and risks of using public funds for private infrastructure projects. Few project applications consider or identify the cause of the problem they are trying to solve. For example, is a lack of rail capacity preventing truck traffic from shifting to rail? Under what conditions would private railroads provide less than the socially optimum level of rail capacity? And is public funding of freight rail the best solution to mitigate negative environmental and health impacts caused by goods movement? This research suggests that public planners and policy makers currently lack the required data, tools and experience to make informed freight rail -ii- infrastructure decisions. Focusing on correcting apparent market failures is likely to offer more certain benefits. This research also points to the need for a more standardized framework for evaluating goods movement projects. -iii- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This dissertation completes nearly 12 years of university study. More people than I can name, or recall, have either persuaded me to continue or provided inspiration, and in doing so have contributed in some way to this dissertation. In particular, I would like to thank the committee members for their thoughtful input and the knowledge they have imparted on me over the course of my studies at UC Davis. I also cannot say enough about the challenges, opportunities and inspiration that Professor Deb Niemeier has provided during my time as a Ph.D. student. I would also like to thank Professor Jonathan Rubin at the University of Maine who introduced me to the field of transportation research as a M.S. student and guided me towards the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis. I would also like to thank my family, and in particular my parents. They have provided assistance and support whenever I have needed it. Lastly, I would like to acknowledge Dana Rowan who for the past 4 years has listened with patience to my ideas and thoughts, has provided critical and useful insight along every step of the way towards completing this dissertation and has brought a smile to my face when it was most needed. Additionally, the research described in Chapters 2 and 3 were funded by the California Air Resources Board. However, the statements and conclusions are those of the author and not necessarily those of the California Air Resources Board. -iv- TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. vii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... viii 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 2 Literature Review: Locomotive modeling ............................................................................... 5 2.1 Background - Locomotives and Railroads ....................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Locomotives ............................................................................................................. 5 2.1.2 Operations ................................................................................................................ 6 2.1.3 Regulation ................................................................................................................ 7 2.2 Locomotive Models ......................................................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Activity Measurement .............................................................................................. 8 2.2.2 Emission Factors .................................................................................................... 23 3 Creating a New Spatially Resolved Locomotive Emission Model ........................................ 34 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 34 3.1.1 Contributions of the Research ................................................................................ 34 3.2 Model Framework .......................................................................................................... 36 3.3 Detailed Model Development ........................................................................................ 38 3.3.1 Line-Haul Method .................................................................................................. 39 3.3.2 Yard Method .......................................................................................................... 61 3.4 Model Results and Inventory ......................................................................................... 67 3.5 Summary and Conclusions............................................................................................. 75 4 Goods Movement data constraints on public policy and planning: A Case Study of California’s Trade Corridors Improvement Fund .......................................................................... 78 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 78 4.2 TCIF Case Study ............................................................................................................ 84 4.2.1 Framework for quantifying project benefits .......................................................... 88 4.3 Case Study Findings ...................................................................................................... 91 4.3.1 Rail Demand .......................................................................................................... 91 4.3.2 Rail Capacity .......................................................................................................... 97 4.3.3 Latent Demand ..................................................................................................... 103 4.3.4 Estimating Public Benefits ................................................................................... 106 4.3.5 Analysis of Air Pollutant Emission Reductions ................................................... 115 -v- 4.1 Summary and Conclusions........................................................................................... 121 5 Summary and Conclusions .................................................................................................. 127 References .................................................................................................................................... 130 Appendices ................................................................................................................................... 139 Appendix A – Estimating Mobile Source Emission Factors ................................................... 140 Appendix B – Copies of Difficult to Obtain Documents ......................................................... 144 Appendix