Charging Ahead Curbing Oil Consumption with Plug-in Cars Charging Ahead Curbing Oil Consumption with Plug-in Cars

Environment Research & Policy Center Siena Kaplan, Frontier Group Brad Heavner, Environment Maryland Research & Policy Center Rob Sargent, Environment America Research & Policy Center

This report is a revised and updated version of the report, Plug-in Cars: Powering America Toward a Cleaner Future, published by Environment America Research & Policy Center in December 2009. June 2010 Acknowledgments

The authors wish to thank Austan Librach, Director of Emerging Transportation Tech- nologies, Austin Energy; David Friedman, Clean Vehicles Research Director, Union of Concerned Scientists; Charles Griffith, Clean Cars Campaign Director, Ecology Center; and Michelle Manion, Head of the Climate and Energy Team, Northeast States for Co- ordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), for their review of this report. Thanks to Tony Dutzik of Frontier Group and Carolyn Kramer for their editorial assistance.

Generous financial support of the Energy Foundation, the Town Creek Foundation, and the Zanvyl & Isabelle Krieger Fund made this report possible.

The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or those who provided review. The authors bear responsibility for any factual errors.

© 2010 Environment Maryland Research & Policy Center

Environment Maryland Research & Policy Center is a 501(c)(3) organization. We are dedicated to protecting Maryland’s air, water and open spaces. We investigate problems, craft solutions, educate the public and decision-makers, and help Marylanders make their voices heard in local, state and national debates over the quality of our environment and our lives. For more information about Environment Maryland Research & Policy Center or for additional copies of this report, please visit www.environmentmaryland.org.

Frontier Group conducts independent research and policy analysis to support a cleaner, healthier and more democratic society. Our mission is to inject accurate information and compelling ideas into public policy debates at the local, state and federal levels. For more information about Frontier Group, please visit www.frontiergroup.org.

Cover photo: Siena Kaplan Layout: Harriet Eckstein Graphic Design Table of Contents

Executive Summary 1 Introduction 5 Plug-In Cars: What Are They and Why Are They Important? 7 Plug-In Hybrids 7 Electric Vehicles 8 Why Use Electricity as a Fuel? 9 Plug-Ins and the Environment 11 Global Warming and Plug-Ins 11 Air Quality and Plug-Ins 13 Plug-Ins and Oil 14 Will the Electric Grid Be Able to Handle Plug-In Cars? 15 Supplying the Electricity for America’s Cars 15 Plug-Ins as a Grid Asset 16 Owning a Plug-In Vehicle 19 Driving a Plug-In Car 19 Staying Charged 20 The Cost of Owning a Plug-In Car 22 Safety 23 Moving Toward a Plug-In Future 26 Getting Plug-Ins on the Road 26 Reaping the Full Benefits of Plug-In Cars 28 Notes 31

Executive Summary

merica’s current fleet of gasoline- it will take a coherent strategy and con- powered cars and trucks leaves us certed action in order to take full advantage Adependent on oil, contributes to of the potential of plug-in vehicles. air pollution problems that threaten our health, and produces large amounts of Plug-in cars can make a major con- global warming pollution. “Plug-in” cars tribution to America’s efforts to reduce are emerging as an effective way to lower global warming pollution. global warming emissions, oil use, and smog. A plug-in car is one that can be • More than 40 recent studies show that recharged from the electric grid. Plug-in plug-in cars produce less carbon diox- cars come in two types: plug-in hybrids ide than traditional gasoline-powered that are paired with small gasoline engines, cars. One study by the Department of and fully electric vehicles that consume no Energy’s Pacific Northwest National gasoline at all. Laboratory (PNNL) found that an As automakers race to become the first fueled by unused capacity to introduce a mass production plug-in in the current electric system would vehicle to American consumers, citizens emit 27 percent less global warming and decision-makers are grappling to un- pollution than a car fueled by gaso- derstand the implications of switching to a line, and would reduce global warm- vehicle fleet fueled primarily by electricity ing pollution in almost every area of for our environment, for consumers, and the country, even where the primary for the nation as a whole. source of electricity is coal. Plug-in vehicles have the potential to make an immediate difference in reducing • To take full advantage of the potential air pollution and curbing dependence on of plug-in vehicles, however, America oil. Over the long term, plug-ins can play must move toward a cleaner electric- a critical role in the effort to stop global ity grid. A study by the University of warming. The technology needed to build California, Berkeley Center for En- workable plug-in vehicles exists today, but trepreneurship & Technology showed

Executive Summary 1 that if half of the light vehicles in the standards for power plants, converting United States were electric vehicles 40 percent of U.S. cars to plug-in hy- powered by completely clean electric- brids by 2030 would reduce smog for ity in 2030, total fleet emissions would 61 percent of Americans, and increase be reduced by 62 percent. it for 1 percent of Americans. Soot would decrease for 82 percent of the Switching to plug-in cars will im- population, and increase for 3 percent prove air quality for most Americans. of the population.

• Replacing gasoline with electricity • Powering cars on clean electricity will reduce the smog found in our such as wind and solar power would cities and other densely populated virtually eliminate vehicle-related air areas. The PNNL study found that pollution—whether from the tailpipe powering a car on electricity would or the power plant. result in 93 percent less smog-forming volatile organic compound (VOCs) Switching to plug-in cars will reduce and 31 percent less nitrogen oxide oil consumption. (NOx) emissions than powering a car on gasoline. • A study by the Pacific Northwest Na- tional Laboratory found that if three- • A study by the Electric Power Re- fourths of the cars, pick-up trucks, search Institute and the Natural Re- SUVs and vans in the United States sources Defense Council found that, were electric vehicles, oil use would combined with our current emissions be reduced by about one third. The

Figure 1. U.S. light vehicle fleet global warming emissions under three different scenarios for fleet composition and fuel1

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20 Fleet Emissions (Percent of Base Scenario)

0 Base Scenario: Gasoline- Half Electric Fleet, Today's Half Electric Fleet, Clean Powered Fleet Electricity Electricity

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 Charging Ahead amount of oil saved would be roughly equivalent to: • The high incremental cost of a plug-in car is largely due to the cost of batter- o As much as the United States im- ies. The National ports from OPEC countries each Laboratory has estimated the near- year. term incremental cost of a plug-in hybrid to be about $10,000-27,000, o More than twice as much as the depending on the size of the battery. United States imports from the In the long term, they predict the Persian Gulf annually. incremental cost will drop to $6,000- $13,000. o Four times as much as is produced from offshore drilling in the United • Operating costs of plug-in cars are States each year. likely to be significantly lower than those of gasoline-powered cars. The technology for plug-in vehicles Electricity costs three to five cents exists today, and plug-ins have sev- per mile with average electric rates, eral advantages over gasoline-powered or the equivalent of $0.75 to $1.25 a cars. gallon of gasoline. Maintenance costs for fully electric cars will also likely be • Plug-in hybrids that have been con- lower as electric vehicles are mechani- verted from conventional hybrids can cally simpler than those with internal achieve 100 miles per gallon or more. combustion engines.

• Electric cars that can go over 200 • Plug-in vehicles could come with new miles on one charge are being sold in models of ownership. Some compa- the United States today. nies, for example, could lease batteries to owners, eliminating the upfront • Most plug-in cars can charge in a nor- cost of purchasing the battery and the mal wall outlet found in many home potential cost of replacing it when it is garages, and rapid chargers have been no longer able to power a vehicle. developed that can fill a 100-mile bat- tery in under 30 minutes. America’s electric system has the capacity to fuel most of our cars today, • Electric cars are much simpler to but the nation will need to clean up our maintain than conventional cars, with electric grid to reap the full potential few moving part compared with the of plug-in cars. hundreds of moving parts required for an internal combustion engine. • A study by the Pacific Northwest Electric cars have no oil changes, and National Laboratory found that require far less regular maintenance. America’s electric system could fuel 73 percent of U.S. cars, pickup-up Plug-in cars will be more expensive trucks, SUVs and vans without build- than gasoline-powered cars. However, ing another power plant, by charging operating costs of plug-in vehicles will vehicles at night. likely be lower. And, over time, many factors will contribute to declining • Utilities can structure electricity costs. prices so that it is cheaper to charge

Executive Summary 3 cars at times of the day when there is numbers of plug-in cars on the road lower electric demand, ensuring that quickly. So too, could a low-carbon a large number of plug-in cars do not fuel standard that allows plug-in put a strain on the utility. These rate vehicles to contribute to the goal of structures will encourage plug-in car reducing life-cycle global warming owners to use “smart chargers” that emissions (including from indirect charge cars only when demand and land-use impacts) from vehicle fuels electricity prices are low. by 10 percent by 2020.

• With investments in “smart grid” • Unlocking the full environmental and technology, plug-in cars could help economic potential of plug-in vehicles stabilize the electric grid and provide will require efforts to clean up and emergency backup power—reducing modernize America’s electric grid. the cost of electricity for all consum- The United States should encourage ers and making the grid better able to the use of clean energy by adopting accommodate intermittent forms of a renewable electricity standard renewable energy generation such as requiring that 25 percent of our elec- wind and solar power. tricity come from renewable energy by 2025. The nation should further There are still barriers to the wide- reduce global warming emissions spread adoption of plug-in cars, but from power plants by adopting a cap smart public policy strategies can help on global warming pollution that to overcome those barriers. reduces emissions to 35 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 and to 80 percent • Despite rapid advances in battery below 2005 levels by 2050. Finally, the technology, automakers and battery nation should invest in the adoption of developers still have strides to make in “smart grid” technologies that would arriving at battery designs that deliver allow plug-in vehicles to help stabilize the range and affordability American the grid. consumers are looking for. Continued funding for research and develop- • The lack of public charging infra- ment of advanced batteries can help. structure—while not a deal-breaker for plug-in vehicle owners who can • The initial price of plug-in cars will charge their cars at home—could limit likely be high, but getting significant the willingness of some consumers numbers of plug-in cars on the road to buy or use plug-in vehicles. Local, quickly is important to prove that the state and federal governments should technology is viable and to identify jump-start the creation of charging unexpected hurdles. Financial incen- infrastructure by installing chargers tives for buyers of the first genera- at publicly owned facilities, develop- tion of plug-in hybrids, coupled with ing procedures for the installation of policies to encourage the purchase chargers on city streets, and providing of plug-ins by government and incentives for private development of private fleets, can help get significant charging infrastructure.

 Charging Ahead Introduction

merica has plenty of good reasons to Aend our dependence on oil. Economically, volatile gasoline prices strain families’ pocketbooks, while our dependence on imports drains hundreds of billions of dollars from our economy each year, enriching big oil companies and oil-rich regimes overseas. Since America consumes 23 percent of the world’s oil but has only 2 percent of the world’s reserves, our dependence on oil necessarily leaves us reliant on imports, puts us at the mercy of unfriendly nations for critical energy supplies, and helps drive increased military spending.82 No amount of new offshore drilling off America’s coasts will produce enough oil to change that—indeed, open- ing new areas of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts to drilling is estimated to produce only two months worth of oil over the next 20 years.83 The most powerful reasons to free our- selves from our dependence on oil, however, are environmental. Burning oil in vehicles creates smog and soot pollution that puts the health of millions of Americans at risk. The explosion and wreckage of BP’s Deepwater Horizon oil rig It also produces carbon dioxide pollution, created a massive slick in the Gulf of Mexico (seen here on May which contributes to global warming. The 17, 2010) and reminded many Americans of the cost of our recent disaster at BP’s Deepwater Horizon dependence on oil. Credit: NASA

Introduction 5 rig in the Gulf of Mexico—which, as of this that is affordable, reliable, doesn’t depend writing, has produced a slick larger than on oil and can contribute to reducing global Maryland and has begun to harm wildlife warming pollution. and foul ecologically sensitive shorelines “Plug-in vehicles”—those that obtain in Louisiana—reminds us that the pro- some or all of their energy from the elec- duction, refining and distribution of oil is tric grid—are among the most promising a dirty and often dangerous business with candidates to succeed gasoline-powered the potential to destroy critical ecosystems vehicles as the car of the 21st century. for years, if not generations, to come. They are energy efficient, and produce There are many ways to reduce our no tailpipe pollution when operating on dependence on oil. Driving less—and pro- electricity. There is already a vast electric viding more opportunities for Americans power infrastructure in existence to fuel to use transit, bike or walk—are important them, and they can be powered with clean, steps. So, too, is improving the fuel econ- renewable energy, making them a poten- omy of our cars and trucks. The recently tially potent solution to the challenge of enacted improvement to the federal fuel global warming. economy standard is an excellent step in In the next several years, plug-in vehicles the right direction. Under the new rules, will become increasingly common sights on the new cars sold every year will have to get American roadways, with major manufac- an average of 35.5 miles per gallon by 2016. turers scheduled to begin selling them in the That single policy will save eight times as United States within the next year. much oil as we would get from expanded As with any technological innovation, drilling in the Atlantic and Gulf Coast.84 plug-in vehicles come with their share of But even these steps are not enough to questions. What will they be like to drive? break our dependence on oil. To do that, How will we fuel them? Can the electric we need cars that run on fuels other than system stand up to the strain of providing gasoline. power for our cars? Are they really good Fortunately, after a century in which for the environment? the gasoline-powered internal combustion This report addresses many of the ques- engine ruled the roads, the race is on to tions about plug-in vehicles and lays out a develop the vehicle of the 21st century. strategy for how public officials can both Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, Big Three help bring this exciting technology to more automakers, academics, government re- Americans and ensure that plug-in vehicles searchers, battery manufacturers, engi- make the maximum possible contribution neers from Detroit to Beijing to Mumbai to addressing our nation’s environmental —all of them are working to develop a car and energy challenges.

 Charging Ahead Plug-In Cars: What Are They and Why Are They Important?

he term “plug-in” refers to any car Plug-In Hybrids that has both an electric motor and a Tbattery that can be charged externally. Hybrid cars are cars that have both an A plug-in hybrid is a car with both an internal combustion engine and an elec- electric motor and an internal combus- tric motor. The batteries in today’s hy- tion engine. Plug-in hybrids are similar brid vehicles are charged by the vehicle’s to conventional hybrids, except that they gasoline engine and by energy recovered have larger batteries that can be charged from braking. In a conventional hybrid, externally, allowing them to achieve in the the battery is used to boost the internal range of 100 miles per gallon of gasoline. combustion engine as the car is driven, and Electric cars run entirely on electricity, allows the car to go farther on the same with no internal combustion engine. amount of gas. Plug-in cars have several advantages Plug-in hybrids also have the ability to over gasoline-powered vehicles. They draw power from the electric grid. To store produce less global warming pollution, this additional electricity, plug-in hybrids emit little or no pollution from the tailpipe, have larger batteries than conventional and reduce our dependence on oil. Battery- hybrids. Plug-in hybrids can generally be powered vehicles also have practical and charged from a standard home outlet. At environmental advantages over many other the same time, plug-in hybrids have an types of alternative-fuel vehicles. internal combustion engine that can power While plug-in cars are not yet cost-com- the vehicle on longer trips that are beyond petitive with gasoline-powered vehicles the range of the vehicle’s battery. and the technology still needs improve- Not all plug-in hybrids are alike. One ment, they are ready today for consumers key difference is in vehicles’ “all-electric who are eager to drive low emission cars. range”—the distance they can travel on

Plug-in Cars: What Are They and Why Are They Important? 7 electricity alone. Some plug-in hybrids hybrids, in which the vehicle accelerates are closer to today’s conventional hy- to a certain point on electric power alone, brids—they can go only a few miles on after which the gasoline engine kicks in. A battery power alone before reverting to plug-in hybrid operating in blended mode gasoline power. Others are closer to elec- can get greater range out of a battery, but tric vehicles—they can go 40 miles or more with the sacrifice of using gasoline and pro- on a charge, meaning that the internal ducing emissions even at times when there combustion engine is rarely used in daily is charge remaining in the battery. driving. There is a trade-off for higher While there are currently no mass-pro- all-electric range, however—the vehicle duced plug-in hybrids on the road, many must carry more batteries, which results conventional hybrids have been converted in higher cost. into plug-ins operating in blended mode, Another difference among plug-in hy- with notable—though greatly vary- brids is in the role played by the internal ing—benefits for fuel economy. Seattle combustion engine versus the electric converted over a dozen of its Prius motor. In parallel hybrids, like the Toyota hybrids to plug-in cars, and over the first Prius, the wheels are connected to both the year they averaged 51 miles per gallon.4 electric motor and the internal combus- However, tested a fleet of plug-in tion engine. In series hybrids, the car is hybrids that got an average of 93.5 miles per propelled solely by its electric motor, and gallon.5 Future plug-in hybrids operating the internal combustion engine produces in charge-depleting mode will have more electricity to recharge the battery. consistently high gas mileage. In addition, there are variations in the ways plug-in hybrids can deploy gasoline and electric power. Plug-ins may operate in “charge depleting” mode, in which the bat- tery is used as the primary source of energy Electric Vehicles until it becomes depleted, when gasoline Electric vehicles use only electric power. takes over as the primary source of energy Despite their high-tech reputation, electric for the vehicle. Many vehicles operating in cars have been produced for more than charge-depleting mode may rarely need to a century, with early electric cars losing use the internal combustion engine. The out to the gasoline-powered Model T for majority of car trips are less than 25 miles, dominance in the early days of the automo- so a typical owner of a plug-in hybrid with bile industry.6 Today, we continue to have a 40-mile electric range that only switches electric vehicles in the form of golf carts to gas when its battery is drained will rarely and fork lifts. A few fully electric cars have need to refill its gas tank.2 Many plug-in also been sold to consumers, such as the hybrids being developed today, such as Toyota RAV4-EV. the Chevy Volt, are designed to operate in The main difference between electric charge-depleting mode. cars and conventional gasoline cars is under On the other hand, plug-in hybrids may the hood. An electric motor (or in some also be designed to operate in “blended” cases, separate motors to power each of mode, in which the combustion engine the vehicle’s wheels) replaces the internal provides an assist for the electric motor combustion engine, eliminating the need when it is most needed—even if there is for oil changes and some other forms of charge remaining in the battery.3 These routine engine maintenance. There is no plug-in hybrids would operate in a manner tailpipe pollution from an similar to some of today’s conventional because there is no tailpipe. Power for the

 Charging Ahead vehicle is drawn from banks of batteries, Indeed, limited numbers of fully electric which are recharged through a connection vehicles have traveled America’s roads for with the electric grid. two decades. In the 1990s, the General Mo- The main technological hurdle to elec- tors EV1 and Honda EV-Plus were sold in tric vehicles has been their batteries. A California. While they were expensive and gasoline tank stores a tremendous amount had limited range, they drew rave reviews of energy in limited space and can be from their owners due to their quiet opera- refilled in minutes. By contrast, batteries tion, quick acceleration, easy maintenance tend to be much heavier and larger for and environmental friendliness. In the the amount of energy they store and take early 2000s, Toyota sold the RAV4-EV in longer to recharge. They also have limited California, with a range of about 100 miles lifespans and are more expensive. and a price tag of $42,000.8 In recent years, advances in battery Electric cars have lower global warming technology have increased the amount of emissions and produce less air pollution energy that can be stored, reduced their than conventional cars. Electric motors cost, and extended their lifetime.7 As the are vastly more efficient than internal com- number of products that use advanced bat- bustion engines. Out of all of the energy teries—from cell phones to laptops—has produced when a car burns gasoline, only grown, so has the amount of research 13 percent actually goes towards moving and investment in advanced battery tech- the car forward.9 An electric car is about nologies. The lead-acid batteries that have twice as efficient, with about 24 percent of dominated the car market for decades the energy in the fuels consumed at a power are now being superseded by the nickel plant actually going toward powering the metal hydride batteries used in today’s car.10 Therefore, even if the electricity used hybrid cars, and may soon be surpassed by to power a vehicle comes from relatively lithium-ion batteries. dirty sources, electric cars still produce Along with advances in battery technol- less global warming and air pollution than ogy, fast-charging technology has also im- conventional cars. With the very dirtiest proved. Extremely fast chargers for electric electricity, electric cars are about equiva- cars exist, and a network of chargers that lent to today’s conventional cars in terms of could allow electric car owners to take their global warming pollution.11 With cleaner cars on longer trips would make it more electricity, such as that produced by wind convenient to own an electric car. or solar power, the difference in pollution emissions is far greater. (See page 11 for more detail). Another advantage to electricity—es- pecially when compared to fuels such as Why Use Electricity as a Fuel? hydrogen or biofuels—is that we have Electricity is an attractive option for fuel- already built a system for production and ing cars because of its potential to reduce distribution of the fuel. Even the most re- global warming emissions and other pol- mote areas of the United States have access lution, and because, in contrast to other to a power line—and those few that do not types of alternative fueled vehicles, such as still have the ability to generate electricity hydrogen, the technology can be applied from solar power or other local renewable today. Electricity has been used to power sources. transportation since the early 1900s, and Other alternative fuels fail to match the infrastructure for delivering electricity the promise of electricity as a long-term to cars largely already exists. solution—either for technological or

Plug-in Cars: What Are They and Why Are They Important? 9 environmental reasons. Hydrogen fuel, that must be produced. while it too can be created from renew- The remaining hurdles to widespread able sources, faces many of the same en- use of electricity as a vehicle fuel, while ergy storage challenges as electricity—and real, are not so large as to prevent the initial would require the construction of a vast roll-out of plug-in vehicles. Plug-in hybrid new network of production facilities and and electric vehicles already travel Ameri- filling stations. Biofuels such as ethanol ca’s roads, are already capable of delivering and can be used in existing in- environmental benefits, and can already ternal combustion engines, but have mixed be fueled using infrastructure found in impacts on the environment, are unlikely virtually every part of the country. Future to be produced in enough quantity to fuel improvements that would unlock the full the nation’s vehicles by themselves, and potential of plug-ins—such as movement require their own new investments in in- toward lower carbon sources of electricity, frastructure. Natural gas is lower emitting the creation of a more interactive electric than gasoline, but still contributes to global grid, and the expansion of infrastructure warming and, again, requires the con- for vehicle charging—while important, struction of new fueling infrastructure to can therefore be implemented gradually become a practical, everyday alternative. over time. Electricity can also be used in tandem In sum, plug-in vehicles—whether fully with other alternative fuels to maximize electric or hybrids—are already techno- their benefits. Plug-in hybrids operating on logically practical alternatives to gasoline- low-emission biofuels, for example, could powered vehicles, with great potential to displace vast amounts of gasoline consump- address the nation’s environmental chal- tion while reducing the amount of biofuels lenges and our dependence on oil.

Mike Kane and Cathy Lam and their children with their Toyota RAV4-EV, a completely electric vehicle that goes over 100 miles on a charge. They bought the car in 2003, and reached the 100,000 mile mark in 2008. Mike and Cathy power their car with solar panels on their house. Photo credit: Mike Kane.

10 Charging Ahead Plug-Ins and the Environment

lug-in cars are generally better for range of results, since there are a number of the environment than conventional factors that differ from study to study—for Pcars. They produce less global warm- example, the gas mileage of the conven- ing pollution, fewer emissions of other air tional cars plug-ins are being compared pollutants, and use far less oil. against, and the amount of electricity the The size and scope of the benefits Amer- plug-in cars are assumed to use. However, ica would receive from plug-in vehicles over 40 recent studies have shown that depend, however, on how we generate the plug-in cars produce less carbon dioxide electricity to supply them. If we clean up than traditional gasoline-powered cars.13 the electric grid by reducing our use of pol- An electric car powered by electricity luting energy sources and increasing our from today’s electric grid will have lower use of clean energy sources such as wind global warming emissions than a conven- and solar power, we can maximize the en- tional car. One study by the Pacific North- vironmental benefits of plug-in vehicles. west National Laboratory (PNNL) found that a car fueled by electricity from unused capacity in our current electric system would emit 27 percent less global warming pollution than a car fueled by gasoline.14 Global Warming and Plug-Ins The environmental benefits of plug-ins Plug-in cars emit less global warming pol- depend on the source of electricity used lution than cars powered by gasoline when to power them. Because some parts of the fueled from today’s electricity sources. country are heavily reliant on coal—which This is largely because electric motors are produces large amounts of global warming vastly more efficient than the internal com- pollution—and others use cleaner sources bustion engine, driving a car much farther of energy, the benefits of plug-ins vary on the same amount of energy.12 from state to state and region to region. Many studies have compared global Even with this variation, the PNNL study warming pollution from plug-ins versus found that global warming emissions per that from conventional cars. There is a wide mile driven by an electric motor would be

Plug-Ins and the Environment 11 lower in every area of the country except A study by the University of California, for the Northern Plains states, where emis- Berkeley Center for Entrepreneurship & sions would stay the same.15 Technology showed that having clean elec- In other words, cars driving on electric tricity sources would increase the global power deliver roughly the same level of warming emission reductions from plug-in global warming emission reductions as cars. The study found that if about half of today’s conventional hybrids—with greater the U.S. fleet were powered by clean elec- reductions in areas of the country with a tricity in 2030, total fleet emissions would cleaner electric grid and smaller reductions be reduced by 62 percent—compared with in areas with a dirtier grid. So why bother a fleet powered with high-priced gasoline with a new technology that is (for the time and with an average fuel economy of 35 being at least) more expensive than today’s miles per gallon. By contrast, if the same hybrids? electric vehicles were powered by electric- The reason is that plug-ins are among ity from the 2007 U.S. grid, fleet emissions the few technologies capable of producing would be reduced only 26 percent.16 (See dramatic reductions in global warming Figure 2). pollution from vehicles over the long term. In fact, beyond just utilizing clean Plug-ins can achieve that potential if they energy, plug-in cars could actually make draw their power from a clean electricity it easier to increase the amount of clean grid, or from solar panels on rooftops or energy in the United States. With the parking lots. implementation of smart grid technology,

Figure 2. U.S. light vehicle fleet global warming emissions under three different scenarios for fleet composition and fuel17

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20 Fleet Emissions (Percent of Base Scenario)

0 Base Scenario: Gasoline- Half Electric Fleet, Today's Half Electric Fleet, Clean Powered Fleet Electricity Electricity “Base scenario” assumes an average fuel economy of 35 miles per gallon and high gasoline prices; Created“half with electricPrint2PDF. fleet” To remove is this46 line,percent buy a licenseof the at:currenthttp://www.software602.com/ U.S. fleet powered by electricity; “today’s electric- ity” is power from the 2007 electric grid; “clean electricity” is electricity with zero global warming emissions.

12 Charging Ahead the storage capacity in plug-in cars could and SOx are limited by a national cap- be tapped to smooth out the intermittency and-trade program which reduces some of renewable energy sources such as wind power plant emissions over time. As the and solar power. (See page 16 for more number of plug-in cars increases over time, detail.) By expanding the grid’s ability to our electric grid will continue to become accommodate renewable sources of energy, cleaner in regards to air quality as long as plug-ins could contribute to reducing we enforce and strengthen the laws that global warming emissions in the United we have in place. States even when they are parked.18 A study by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) showed that using plug-in cars will improve air qual- ity beyond the large emissions reductions Air Quality and Plug-Ins that will already result from current laws. Switching to plug-in cars would improve The study found that if 40 percent of the air quality for most people in the United vehicles on the road were plug-in hybrids

States. If the nation continues to rely on in 2030, VOC and NOx emissions would be coal-fired power plants, emissions may rise reduced by over 1.5 percent, compared with for some people who live near those plants. continuing to use conventional vehicles.

But enforcing stringent air pollution stan- Sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions would not rise dards for power plants and increasing the or fall compared with business as usual.20 amount of clean electricity would reduce Pollution from power plants can have that threat and ensure that a switch to serious impacts on nearby communities, plug-in cars would improve air quality for as well as the environment as a whole. But everyone. -burning power plants tend to Plug-in cars produce less tailpipe pol- be located in less populated areas, whereas lution than conventional cars, but fueling automobile pollution is greatest in the them with electricity from our current midst of densely populated urban areas. As energy sources will increase air pollution a result, when weighted for population, the from power plants. A study by the De- clean air benefits of plug-ins are even more partment of Energy’s Pacific Northwest significant. The EPRI and NRDC study National Laboratory found that powering found that if 40 percent of the vehicles on a car with electricity would result in 93 the road were plug-in hybrids in 2030 and percent less smog-forming volatile organic current power plant pollution laws were compounds (VOCs) and 31 percent less enforced, smog levels would decrease for nitrogen oxides (NOx) than powering a 61 percent of the population, and increase car with gasoline power, including power for 1 percent of the population. Soot would plant emissions.19 Further reductions would decrease for 82 percent of the population, likely occur if polluting sources of electric- and increase for 3 percent of the popula- ity generation were to be replaced with tion.21 cleaner, renewable sources. As plug-in vehicles make up an increas- These estimates assume, however, that ingly large percentage of our cars, it will be we would use existing coal-fired power critical to enforce our power plant emission plants, as they are, to supply the extra controls to ensure that improvements in air electricity for our cars. While coal plants quality for many are not at the expense of will always be dirty, technology exists that others’ health. limits the amount of soot and smog they Increasing the amount of clean energy produce. Power plant emissions of NOx in our electricity supply would improve air

Plug-Ins and the Environment 13 quality even further. Studies of the effect of rather than gasoline to power vehicles, plug-in cars on air quality tend to assume plug-in vehicles can significantly reduce the status quo for our energy sources, lead- our dependence on oil. A study by the Pa- ing to projections of high increases in the cific Northwest National Laboratory found amount of coal supplying our electricity that if three-fourths of the cars, pick-up over the next few decades. Committing trucks, SUVs and vans in the United States instead to get more of our electricity from were powered by electricity, oil use would clean sources such as wind and solar power be reduced by about one third, and gaso- would improve air quality significantly. line use would be reduced by about three- And as discussed above, widespread use of fourths (see Figure 3).23 The amount of oil electric cars will make it easier to increase saved would be roughly equivalent to: the amount of clean energy in our grid, leading to decreases in air pollution from • As much as the United States im- both cars and power plants. ports from OPEC countries each year.

• More than twice as much as the United States imports from the Per- Plug-Ins and Oil sian Gulf annually. Switching to plug-in cars will significantly reduce our dependence on oil. Two-thirds • Four times as much as is produced of the oil used in the United States is used from offshore drilling in the United for transportation.22 By using electricity States each year.85

Figure 3: Oil savings from powering three-fourths of the U.S. light vehicle fleet with electricity24

20 Residential, Commercial, Electricity, and Other

Industrial

Transportation, Other Fuels 15 Transportation, Gasoline

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5 Million Barrels of Oil Consumed per Day

0 Current Consumption Three-Fourths of U.S. Fleet Powered With Electricity

Created with Print2PDF. To remove this line, buy a license at: http://www.software602.com/ 14 Charging Ahead Will the Electric Grid Be Able to Handle Plug-In Cars?

merica’s existing electric system has to use more wind and solar power than our enough capacity to supply power to grid can currently support. Amost of the current fleet of cars in the United States if they were plug-in vehicles. If plug-in cars are charged at night, they could take advantage of unused capacity in Supplying the Electricity for the system—and potentially do so at lower prices. Even if most cars are charged during America’s Cars the day, it will be a long time before there The current electric grid could handle a are enough plug-in cars to be a strain on significant portion of U.S. cars running on the system. To take full advantage of the electricity, especially if they’re charged at potential of plug-in vehicles, however, times of the day when electricity demand is American will need to move toward a low. Even if cars are charged during times cleaner electric grid. of high demand, the gradual introduction If America pushes forward with plans of plug-in cars will not put a large strain to build a “smart grid,” plug-ins could on our electric system. even help the electric system work better. America’s electric system is designed “Vehicle-to-grid” (V2G) technology would to supply reliable power under all condi- make it possible for utilities to use the tions. That means that the nation must storage capacity in the batteries of parked have enough power plants and transmis- cars to make the grid more reliable. In a sion wires to provide power for the few V2G system, utilities would compensate hours each year—usually during summer plug-in car owners for the use of their heat waves—when electricity consumption batteries, and set up systems that would peaks. Most of the time, however, there ensure that the cars are fully charged when are vast amounts of unused capacity in the their owners need them. The large amount system. This extra capacity is enough to of electricity storage capacity that plug-in fuel 73 percent of the cars, SUVs, pickup cars would provide could make it possible trucks and vans in the United States as

The Electric Grid 15 plug-in hybrids without adding a single charged during times of peak demand, additional power plant.25 they would not be a big strain on the elec- The times when there is the most extra tric grid in the short term. A study by the capacity in the electric system also happen National Renewable Energy Laboratory to be the times when most Americans will found that 1 million plug-in cars charging charge their plug-in vehicles—at night. simultaneously would only use about 0.16 Utilities could encourage nighttime charg- percent of our current electricity capacity.28 ing by providing lower, off-peak electric As an increasing number of drivers are rates during those hours, as some utilities plugging in their cars, smart chargers will already do. Drivers could also use a con- become more necessary to ensure that utili- troller for their home charger—a “smart ties can manage the increased use, and to charger”—that would start charging the prevent local electric infrastructure from car at the time that rates drop, so they being overloaded.29 wouldn’t have to worry about what time In short, there is ample electricity they plug the car in.26 Lower electric rates capacity to serve plug-in vehicles in the would add to the cost savings of electricity near term. By moving toward a cleaner versus gasoline as a vehicle fuel. electric system that uses more renewable Widespread nighttime charging, howev- energy, America can also ensure that plug- er, can have environmental disadvantages. ins deliver the maximum environmental Currently, the grid is served at periods of benefit. low demand by power plants with low costs of operation—either “baseload” sources such as nuclear energy or intermittent sources such as wind or hydroelectric power for which there are no fuel costs. Plug-Ins as a Grid Asset The next set of power plants utilities run Plug-in vehicles draw power from the elec- to supply additional demand are those pow- tric grid, but they can also supply power ered by low-cost fuels, particularly coal, to the grid, acting as a valuable asset to followed by those operating on higher-cost the smooth functioning of the electricity fuels such as natural gas. system. Using “vehicle to grid” (V2G) The environmental impact of adding a technology, utilities could use the energy plug-in hybrid to the nighttime grid de- stored in plug-in car batteries to stabilize pends on the type of generator that would the grid, avoiding the need to pay for ex- be “switched on” to meet the additional pensive backup and peak generators. By demand, which will vary depending on the compensating drivers for the use of plug- local mix of resources. If the additional de- ins for reliability purposes, utilities could mand is met through increased generation reduce the lifetime cost of a plug-in car. at coal-fired power plants, the pollution As mentioned above, utilities must de- benefits of plug-ins could be much reduced, sign the electric system to function under though plug-ins would likely still produce any conditions. That means building a sys- less carbon dioxide pollution than con- tem large enough to supply power during ventional vehicles.27 If, on the other hand, the few hours each year when consumption the additional demand is met through is at its peak and having enough backup renewable energy resources available at resources on hand to provide power in case night—such as wind power—the impact of unexpected problems. on emissions will be far smaller. Today, peak and backup power are sup- The adoption of plug-in cars will be plied by generators, usually burning fossil gradual, so even if they were usually fuels. Depending on their function, these

16 Charging Ahead generators are only used a small fraction of These services would be extremely valu- the time or only supply a small amount of able to utilities, with an estimated value power.30 That makes them extremely ex- of as much as $4,000 per year per car.34 pensive to maintain and operate, with those Passing even a fraction of those savings costs passed on to electricity consumers. along to vehicle owners would go a long If utilities could store power, rather than way toward making plug-in vehicles an having to match generation to demand on economical alternative.35 a second-by-second basis as they do now, The batteries of plug-in vehicles also they could do away with much of the ex- provide a resource that can be used to pensive peak and backup generators they expand the use of intermittent sources of must currently maintain, with big potential renewable energy such as wind and solar savings to consumers. power. Again, because electricity supply The millions of plug-in car batteries that and demand must be in perfect balance would be attached to the grid could serve as every second of the day, utilities must that source of electricity storage. Most cars ensure that they have enough generation are parked over 90 percent of the time, and capacity on hand to meet demand even therefore capable of supplying extra power when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t to the grid.31 With V2G technology, plug- blowing. The U.S. electric grid can handle in car owners could contract with utilities much more wind and solar power than we to let them use their batteries when the cars have today, but by using plug-in vehicles are plugged in. to supply power at times of low solar or Plug-in batteries could serve several wind energy production, the nation would valuable functions for utilities. The first be able to dramatically expand its use of would be providing small amounts of renewable energy without affecting the power or storage capacity to respond to reliability of the grid. One study published second-to-second changes in demand. in the Journal of Power Sources found that When demand rises, utilities could pull if 26 percent of our cars were plug-ins using small amounts of electricity from full bat- V2G technology, our electricity grid would teries; when demand drops, utilities could be able to get a fifth of its electricity from send extra electricity to batteries that aren’t solar power at the height of the day.36 full.32 Having plug-in vehicles available using The second function would be provid- V2G technology would not only allow ing backup power in case something goes utilities to use more wind power, but it wrong at a power plant. This will likely would also reduce the cost of expanding only happen about 20 times in a year, for wind power, by eliminating the need to 10 minutes to an hour, but utilities need purchase backup power. The same study to have backup power that can be quickly found that if about 40 percent of the cars in available all the time. Instead of using the United States were electric cars using generators, utilities could pull from car V2G technology, we would be able to get batteries plugged into the grid when these half our electricity from wind power.37 A failures happen.33 study by the National Renewable Energy The third function would be to serve Laboratory found that if half our cars peak demand in the system. During the were plug-in hybrids using V2G technol- hot summer months, for example, a vehicle ogy, market forces alone would double the could be charged at night, and then dis- amount of wind power in the United States charge to the grid during the day, reducing by 2050.38 the need to fire up expensive and polluting V2G technology is appealing, but still peak generators. far away. V2G technology will require that

The Electric Grid 17 utilities are able to have two-way com- of the storage capacity available in plug-in munication with power outlets and car cars even before the electric grid is upgrad- chargers. Upgrading the electric system to ed through “vehicle to home” technology, have “smart grid” capabilities would allow or V2H. In this system, drivers can use plug-in car owners to take advantage of stored electricity in their car batteries to the potential to earn some money through power their homes. their cars, and would make it possible for For example, a driver going to work utilities to get more electricity from wind could park his or her car in a parking lot and solar power. outfitted with solar panels. The solar panels For now, however, plug-in car owners could charge the vehicle during the day, and utilities will be able to take advantage powering the commute home and leaving enough energy to power the home during the high-demand evening hours. Then, at night, the vehicle could be recharged with wind power from the electric grid. Drivers who stay home during the day could charge their cars on cheaper power at night and, when not planning long drives, could use extra battery capacity to power their homes during the day. V2H provides many of the benefits of V2G, but consumers and utilities will be able to take advantage of it with the current electric grid without waiting for upgrades. V2H allows drivers to benefit from lower electricity rates at night, and to have more control over the sources of electricity their homes are using. With With “vehicle to home” technology, plug-in car owners could charge their V2H, utilities do not have control over the cars during the day at solar parking lots—such as this one at Kyocera’s car’s charging, but benefit when consumers employee parking lot in San Diego, California—then use remaining use less peak electricity, which they can battery power after they drive home to help power their houses in the encourage by charging less for electricity evening. Photo credit: Envision Solar. used at night.39

18 Charging Ahead Owning a Plug-In Vehicle

wning and driving a plug-in car will Driving a Plug-In Car be similar to driving a conventional Ocar, but different in a few key ways. Plug-in vehicles have several performance For all plug-in vehicles, charging up the advantages over conventional vehicles. vehicle will reduce or eliminate the need They are generally quieter, quicker to ac- to visit gas stations. Most plug-in cars can celerate, and easier to operate. And fully use a standard wall outlet, found in many electric vehicles offer the potential for garages, and will gain enough battery design flexibility that could radically alter charge overnight to fuel a typical day’s the driving experience. driving. Taking a fully electric car on a The most obvious difference in the long road trip will require infrastructure cockpit of a fully electric vehicle (or a series for quick charging or battery changing plug-in hybrid) is what is missing. There that is not yet in place, but the technology is no need for a clutch, a gear shift or a exists to make recharging a car relatively transmission. Also missing is noise; elec- quick and easy. tric motors are much quieter than internal The economics of owning plug-in cars combustion engines, an effect that can will be different than those of conventional already be seen in today’s hybrids. vehicles. They will cost more up-front—a Electric vehicles also offer quicker and great deal more in the near term while the smoother acceleration. Electric motors market is immature and technology is de- generate their maximum torque at stand- veloping—but will be cheaper to fuel and still and provide instantaneous power, possibly cheaper to maintain. Plug-in cars meaning that there is none of the hesita- will be quieter and smoother to accelerate tion involved in waiting for an internal and drive than conventional cars, and will combustion engine to get up to speed. As a require less maintenance. They are just as result, electric vehicles can post impressive safe as conventional cars, both in terms of acceleration times—the all-electric Tesla crash safety and the safety of the battery Roadster, for example, goes from zero to as compared with gasoline. 60 mph in four seconds.40 Electric vehicles

Owning a Plug-In Vehicle 19 also slow quickly once the motor is turned is fairly flexible.45 As a result, automobile off, meaning that there is little need for designers will have much more flexibility aggressive braking.41 to improve aerodynamics, reconfigure in- The simplicity of electric vehicles means terior space, or develop unique cosmetic that fully electric cars will be much easier packages. to maintain. Gone are the hundreds of pistons, cylinders, pumps, valves, and other parts in an internal combustion engine.42 Gone, too, as described above, are the clutch, transmission and gearbox, Staying Charged as well as the exhaust system. Oil changes Charging up a plug-in car is not rocket sci- will be unnecessary. The result is that the ence. Today, plug-in cars can be charged routine maintenance that adds to the cost at home overnight, using a standard con- and inconvenience of owning an internal nection to the electric grid. Over the long combustion vehicle will be dramatically term, infrastructure to charge cars away reduced. from home will add to owners’ options. The one potential big-ticket mainte- Many plug-in hybrid owners will likely nance expense unique to hybrid and plug-in charge their cars overnight from a normal vehicles is the need to replace batteries. A wall outlet. Most plug-in hybrids, such as battery for a plug-in vehicle can cost more today’s converted Priuses, can be charged than $10,000, so avoiding the need to buy a from a standard wall outlet in about five replacement battery is critical for ensuring to nine hours.46 A majority of America’s the financial viability of plug-in cars. housing units already have a garage and Battery life could be a more significant others have electric outlets that would be hurdle to plug-in hybrids than to today’s easily connected to a plug-in car.47 Some conventional hybrid vehicles, since plug-in drivers may want to install a 220-volt outlet vehicles will be much more reliant on their in their garage, like the type installed for batteries than today’s hybrids, with deeper an electric clothes dryer, to charge the bat- discharging of the batteries eroding bat- tery more quickly, but for most this won’t tery life.43 But the experience to date with be necessary. hybrid vehicle batteries provides hope that For drivers without a garage or off-street the issues surrounding battery life can be parking, charging will be more of a chal- resolved. Despite initial fears about the lenge, but on-street charging stations are lifespan of the batteries used in today’s already in place in several cities, and the hybrid vehicles, battery replacement has technology for extending electric power not been an issue for hybrid drivers. Hybrid to the curbside is not complex; similar car batteries were originally warrantied for systems are already in use at marinas and eight years, but Toyota claims that none of campgrounds. its batteries, now almost 10 years old, have Most drivers will charge fully electric worn out—those replaced have been in cars vehicles in the same way. Although an involved in accidents. This includes some electric car’s battery is larger than that of cars that have been driven over 200,000 a plug-in hybrid, charging time depends miles.44 on the amount the battery is depleted. A The simplicity of electric power systems typical car owner drives under 25 miles a will also allow a much greater variety of day, requiring only a few hours of recharg- car styles. Electric motors are smaller than ing, which can happen overnight.48 Electric internal combustion engines and the loca- vehicles will likely come with a faster char- tion of the engine and batteries in the car ger that can fill a car’s battery in much less

20 Charging Ahead of fast chargers throughout the city.50 This network can be developed over time as an increasing number of drivers own plug-in cars. Another plan would change batteries instead of charging them for quick refu- eling. One company, , has a business plan in which the company would own batteries and lease them to owners of compatible electric cars. The batter- ies could be charged at charging stations around a city, or changed at battery chang- ing stations along highways. This would make owning a fully electric car easier in a few ways—leasing batteries instead of owning them would bring down the initial sticker price of the car, and battery changing could happen even faster than with quick chargers, in under two minutes, eliminating concern about vehicle range.51 On-street car chargers, like this one in San It would also eliminate concerns about Francisco, will make it easier for people who battery lifetime, and enable consumers to don’t have off-street parking to own plug-in have new and improved battery technology cars. Photo credit: Siena Kaplan. quickly, instead of waiting until they buy a new car. A company providing electric- ity to fuel a large network of cars may be time, which will be useful when the car’s better positioned to negotiate with utilities battery is fully depleted. to deploy V2G charging, or to supply its If a family is relying on an electric car as own clean electricity through solar arrays their primary vehicle and using it for long or wind turbines at charging stations.52 On trips, they will need a way to recharge the the other hand, electric car owners leasing car on the road. Electric cars today have batteries might not benefit from the lower a range of about 100-200 miles, although fuel prices usually associated with electric this may increase as battery technology cars, unless gas prices rise dramatically.53 develops. Investments in infrastructure for al- One option that would allow electric ternative fuel vehicles often fall prey to a car owners to take their cars on long trips “chicken and egg” problem—investors are is to install fast chargers at gas stations or unwilling to invest in new infrastructure along highways, which would allow driv- if there are not cars on the road to use it, ers to recharge their cars when they stop while potential car buyers are unwilling for a meal or at a rest stop. Extremely fast to purchase an if chargers already exist that can fully charge there is nowhere to fuel it. Because many a battery with 100-mile range in under half early drivers of plug-in cars will be able an hour.49 Fast chargers have been installed to recharge at home, the need for exten- in some places in the United States, such as sive charging infrastructure is less acute. Hawaii. , D.C. has partnered However, government will still need to with AeroVironment, a leading producer take action to encourage the develop- of charging stations, to install hundreds ment of charging or battery-swapping

Owning a Plug-In Vehicle 21 infrastructure while the plug-in vehicle scheduled for release in late 2010, will cost market is developing. about $40,000.55 In many ways, though, the focus on In the long term, when plug-in cars the limited range of fully electric vehicles have been on the mass market for a is misplaced. Americans have become ac- number of years and no longer have the customed to using one type of vehicle for cost premium associated with new tech- all their transportation needs and having nologies, their upfront cost will be much only one option for fueling it. Electric ve- lower. The National Renewable Energy hicles can meet most of the driving needs of Laboratory has estimated the near-term most of the American public today, without incremental cost of a plug-in hybrid to extensive new charging infrastructure. For be about $10,000-$27,000, depending on those Americans who take frequent, longer the size of the battery.56 In the long term, trips, plug-in hybrids or even conventional they predict the incremental cost to drop hybrids (perhaps operating on alternative to $6,000-$13,000.57 A123, a leading bat- fuels) remain options. For two-car house- tery manufacturer for plug-in cars, more holds, an electric vehicle can be used for recently estimated that by 2012, the price city driving and a plug-in hybrid for longer of a lithium-ion battery for a fully electric trips. Other transportation options—in- car will be about $11,000.58 cluding trains, planes, and rental cars—can Even a $6,000 cost premium sounds help fill the gaps for longer trips. In short, like a lot of money. But it is easy to forget the limited range of electric vehicles need that much of the cost of today’s internal not be a “deal breaker” for their adoption combustion vehicles is not paid to the car by a large share of the American public. dealer—rather, it is accumulated over time in gasoline and repairs. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), gasoline and maintenance expenses ac- The Cost of Owning a count for 14.6 cents of the 54 cents per mile in costs incurred by the driver of an average Plug-In Car automobile—or just over one quarter of Plug-in cars cost more than conventional the total cost.59 vehicles, but those higher up-front costs Fueling a vehicle with electricity versus are mitigated by lower fuel and mainte- gasoline will cut fuel costs by more than nance costs. Because they are a relatively half. For the average American, at 11 cents new technology, and are produced in small per kilowatt hour (kWh), charging a purely quantities, plug-in cars are much more electric vehicle would cost between three expensive today. However, technological and five cents a mile.60 This is the equiva- advances and mass production should lent of $0.75 to $1.25 per gallon for a car bring prices down, making them com- that gets the equivalent of 25 miles per gal- petitive with today’s conventional vehicle lon (mpg). Compared with a conventional technology. car getting 25 mpg at gas costs of $2.50 Today’s conventional hybrids can be per gallon, the average electric car driver converted to plug-in hybrids for a total would save $600-$960 a year.61 Combined cost of about $30,000-$35,000 depending with the $7,500 federal tax credit, these on the hybrid, with a $1,000 federal tax fuel savings over a 10-year period could rebate.54 Previous and expected prices of lower the lifetime cost of an electric car as plug-in cars sold as such are in the range much as $17,000. of $40,000-$50,000. has Fully electric cars will require far fewer said that the Chevy Volt, a plug-in hybrid repairs and maintenance over the lifetime

22 Charging Ahead of the car because there are far fewer mov- electric cars compared to plug-in hybrids. ing parts. With an electric car, there are New models for car ownership, like that no oil changes, broken fan belts, or clogged proposed by Better Place, may also make filters. Since plug-in cars use regenera- it easier to buy an electric car. By paying tive braking, using the motor to slow the for car batteries and electricity the way car and recharge the battery, brakes last we pay for cell phones, with a monthly or much longer.62 Lower maintenance costs per mile fee, any additional cost would be could save plug-in car owners thousands spread out over the lifetime of the car and of dollars over the lifetime of their cars, in there would be no risk of needing to pay addition to money saved on fuel. for a replacement battery, removing the Battery replacement would add signifi- up-front barrier to buying an electric car. cantly to the lifetime cost of a plug-in car, Centralizing the battery and electricity but advances in battery technology are purchasing would also lower these costs reducing the need for replacement. Batter- for the supplier. A study by the University ies being developed for plug-in cars today of California, Berkeley Center for Entre- are expected to last five to eight years, or preneurship and Technology found that 100,000-200,000 miles, depending on the with this model, an electric car would cost type of battery.63 This means that some less to fuel per mile than a gasoline car, cars will need their battery replaced once including the cost of the battery and the over the car’s lifetime, and others not at cost of building fueling and battery chang- all. If prices come down as expected, this ing stations—even if gas costs less than $4 could be a few thousand dollars for a plug- a gallon. This assumes that a battery for in hybrid, or a few times that for a fully an electric car with a 100 mile range costs electric car.64 Developers are also working $11,000 in 2012, the price predicted by to extend battery life, so that a battery leading battery manufacturer A123.66 could be expected to last the full lifetime Finally, there are several other factors of a car. Finally, the used batteries from that may narrow or eliminate the cost plug-in vehicles—while no longer useful gap between conventional and plug-in in vehicles—may retain some usefulness as vehicles. As mentioned earlier, plug-in a source of power storage for the electric hybrids could provide a valuable source of grid, meaning that batteries may retain back-up or peak power for the electric grid. some value for consumers even when they Fairly compensating the owners of plug-in must be replaced. hybrids, or battery leasers, for this service Manufacturers may also find new ways could mean additional savings of hundreds to improve the efficiency with which to thousands of dollars per year. Owners they manufacture electric vehicles. Wang of plug-in hybrids would also enjoy ad- Chuanfu, the founder of the Chinese ditional savings in the event that gasoline battery company BYD, which has started prices spike. Moreover, federal incentives manufacturing plug-in cars in China, has for plug-in hybrids can also reduce the cost said that electric cars are to conventional differential. cars as digital watches are to Swiss analog watches—they have fewer parts and require less fine tuning.65 While established car companies are moving into plug-in hy- brids before thinking seriously about fully Safety electric cars, a number of new companies Plug-in cars are just as safe as conventional are bypassing gasoline engines altogether cars, both in terms of the safety of the to take advantage of the simplicity of fully fuel and crash safety. Plug-in vehicles are

Owning a Plug-In Vehicle 23 no more likely than conventional vehicles on the road.68 Newer batteries—such to injure their occupants in a crash. The as lithium-ion batteries—pose different batteries used in plug-in cars have been challenges. Early lithium-ion batteries shown to be safe, especially compared occasionally caught on fire when they with the highly flammable gasoline used were first used in laptops and cell phones.69 by conventional cars. However, the early safety problems with Plug-in cars will have to pass the same lithium-ion batteries have largely been crash-safety tests as conventional cars, and addressed, and sound engineering and with a new design it is likely that compa- the addition of safety features can reduce nies will install enough safety features to the risks even further. Tesla Motors, achieve the highest ratings. whose all-electric Roadster uses the larg- Plug-in vehicles are just as safe as gaso- est lithium-ion battery of any plug-in line-powered vehicles, and possibly more car sold today in the United States, has so. Gasoline is highly flammable—in 2004, taken a number of precautions to ensure there were approximately 266,000 car fires that the batteries are safe. Tesla tested its in the United States, which resulted in the batteries for safety in hundreds of dif- deaths of 520 people.67 To improve upon ferent situations, setting fire to batteries this safety record, plug-in batteries will and crash-testing the cars, without safety need to be safe in crashes and under a wide failures.70 variety of circumstances. In short, plug-in vehicles must meet the Extensive testing of the batteries used same crash safety standards as conventional today in plug-in cars has shown that they cars. And it is unlikely that reliance on bat- are safe. The nickel-hydride batteries used teries will pose dangers to drivers beyond in hybrid cars have not had any safety those already posed by internal combustion problems in the 10 years they have been vehicles.

24 Charging Ahead The Plug-in Vehicle Race Is On

hen will Americans have the chance to drive plug-in vehicles? The answer: Wsooner than you might think. Manufacturers around the world are racing to be the first to produce an af- fordable, attractive plug-in vehicle for American car-buyers. Indeed, by the end of 2011, several major manufacturers and a few upstarts plan to introduce electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids to the public. Chevrolet and Toyota are both preparing for the introduction of plug-in hybrids. The is scheduled for launch in November 2010. It is described as a range-extended electric vehicle, meaning that the gasoline engine is used to generate electricity to power the vehicle once the original charge has been depleted. The Volt will seat four adults and is anticipated to go up to 40 miles on an electric charge.86 Meanwhile, Toyota is preparing to introduce a plug-in version of the in 2011. The plug-in Prius is projected to have an all-electric range of 14.5 miles – significantly lower than the Volt—but is still projected to deliver fuel economy in the range of 134 miles per gallon of gasoline.87 Other manufacturers are focusing on fully electric vehicles. The electric vehicle will be sold in some U.S. markets starting in December 2010. The compact five-seat hatchback will get approximately 100 miles to a charge, and the vehicle is likely to be sold at a price of $25,000 after federal incentives—well below previous electric vehicles.88 Nissan has already received more than 8,000 U.S. pre-orders for the vehicle.89 Ford is going after a different piece of the automotive market with its electric Transit Connect delivery van. The van has a target range of 80 miles and is scheduled to go on sale to commercial customers in 2011.90 Ford currently plans to follow the Transit Connect with an electric version of its Ford Focus, scheduled to arrive in late 2011. In addition, Mitsubishi plans to bring its all-electric iMiEV, a four-seat mini-car that is already for sale in Japan, to the United States in late 2011 or early 2012.91 In addition to the major automakers, several newcomers are planning to enter the plug-in vehicle market. Chinese automaker BYD is planning to introduce an electric vehicle to the United States by late 2010, as well as a plug-in hybrid. A number of small manufacturers, including CODA Automotive, Fisker Auto- motive and THINK are planning to introduce plug-in vehicles within the next couple of years.

Owning a Plug-In Vehicle 25 Moving Toward a Plug-In Future

hanging the way our transportation to the electric grid. system is powered isn’t just a nice Governments have an important role Cidea—it’s an imperative. As oil and to play in making all of these simultane- natural gas become harder to come by ous processes happen. With a thoughtful and the pressure to reduce global warming strategy and a strong public policy commit- pollution grows, Americans will eventu- ment, plug-in vehicles could come to play a ally have to find other ways to get around meaningful role in addressing the nation’s besides in internal combustion engine environmental and energy challenges— vehicles. and do so in the foreseeable future. Plug-in cars are a promising alternative. We know how to build cars that run on electricity, we have a nationwide infra- structure capable of fueling them, and we know that they are environmentally prefer- able to the vehicles on the road today. Getting Plug-Ins on the Road Getting to a future of a vehicle fleet Several car companies have plans to pro- that is free from dependence on oil and duce plug-in cars within the next couple of produces dramatically lower emissions of years. Those vehicles, however, are likely to global warming pollution, however, won’t be relatively expensive vehicles targeted to happen overnight and it won’t be easy. “early adopters”—the same technologically The initial hurdle will be to demonstrate savvy consumers who purchased the first the viability of plug-in vehicles under personal computers, cellular telephones, real-world conditions. Next will come the solar panels or conventional hybrid-elec- challenge of expanding plug-in vehicle tric cars. ownership to more Americans. Finally, the There are a number of steps that govern- nation will need to take steps to reap the ments can take to get plug-in vehicles on full environmental and economic benefits the road, and to help make the jump from of plug-in hybrids through improvements niche market to mass market.

26 Charging Ahead Encourage Research and between plug-in and conventional ve- Development hicles—at least in the near term. But they States and the federal government should should provide a shot in the arm to encour- encourage research and development for age early adopters to pursue plug-ins. Even plug-in cars, while making sure that these more important than the size of the incen- incentives are tied to achieving the goal of tives, however, is their duration—federal getting plug-in cars on the road. and state governments should develop and Recent years have seen tremendous implement long-term incentive structures improvement in battery technology, but to send a message to manufacturers and the further research on advanced batteries is public that their commitment to plug-in needed. The American Recovery and Rein- vehicles is real. vestment Bill included $2 billion in funding for advanced battery research for plug-in Use Plug-In Vehicles in Fleets vehicles, and $400 million to encourage Vehicle fleets, such as those used by electric vehicle development.71 This fund- governments or delivery companies, are ing will accelerate improvements in plug-in particularly suited to use plug-ins. Fleet technology, but there are still other areas vehicles are often used on a defined sched- of battery research that are underfunded, ule and within a defined area, meaning that such as more basic battery research on new range isn’t as much of an issue. Fleet ve- battery materials.72 States and the federal hicles are often refueled centrally, meaning government should continue to support that they do not need to rely on the avail- battery and other plug-in vehicle technol- ability of public charging infrastructure. ogy development. At the same time, any Finally, fleet owners may be more willing direct government subsidies to the automo- to sustain higher upfront cost for vehicles bile industry should be tied to the achieve- with the promise of longer-term savings. ment of specific benchmarks to ensure that Managers of government fleets should funding is used to bring environmentally be some of the first purchasers of plug-in preferable vehicles to consumers. cars. The federal and state governments, as well as many cities, own fleets of vehicles Provide Incentives for the that employees use for official purposes. Purchase of Plug-In Cars Integrating plug-in cars into these fleets In the early years, plug-in vehicles will be will encourage more widespread use of much more expensive than conventional ve- plug-in cars by enlarging the market and hicles. Financial incentives for the purchase demonstrating to consumers that plug-in of plug-in vehicles can help get plug-ins on cars work. They will also lower the fleets’ the road and encourage manufacturers to environmental impact. invest in mass producing plug-in vehicles, A number of states and cities have laws thereby reducing their costs. to lower the global warming impact of their There is currently a federal tax credit for fleets. Some examples include: plug-in vehicles of $2,500-$7,500, depend- ing on the distance a car can be driven on • has a law that requires electric power. There is also a tax credit for 50 percent of state vehicles to be hy- 10 percent of the cost of converting a car brids by 2018.74 to a plug-in electric vehicle, up to $4,000. Some states have additional incentives for • , as part of its plan to reduce buying plug-in cars.73 global warming emissions in the These incentives likely will not be suf- state to 75 percent below 1990 levels ficient to close the gap in up-front costs by 2050, requires state agencies to

Moving Toward a Plug-In Future 27 establish annual global warming emis- California, for example, pushed vehicle sion reduction targets for themselves, technology forward with its Zero-Emission including emissions from their vehicle Vehicle program, which ultimately led to fleets.75 the creation of fully electric cars that made today’s hybrid cars possible. The program • Seattle has already converted a dozen is currently designed to promote the de- of the Toyota Priuses in its fleet to velopment and sale of a wide variety of plug-in hybrids.76 clean vehicles—including plug-in vehicles. Other states could adopt the California In addition, the American Recovery and program and the federal government could Reinvestment Act included $300 million establish similar requirements, thereby in funding to replace older vehicles owned pushing automakers to offer more plug-in by the U.S. government with plug-in and hybrids for sale to consumers. alternative fuel cars.77 By using more plug-in cars, cities and states reduce their global warming impact and other pollution, but the benefits of these policies extend beyond direct emis- Reaping the Full Benefits of sions reductions. Governments that buy low emissions cars enlarge the early market Plug-In Cars for these cars, which encourages companies Getting large numbers of efficient plug-in to develop plug-ins. They bring plug-ins cars on the road is important, but is only closer to mass production, lowering the half the battle. To take full advantage of cost for everyone. And, governments with the benefits of plug-in cars, America must plug-in cars in their fleets have an incentive also move to clean up the nation’s elec- to install chargers around the areas where tricity grid, expand access to recharging the cars will be used, which in turn will infrastructure, and tap the potential of encourage more residents in those areas plug-ins to contribute to the stability of to buy plug-in cars, knowing that chargers the electric grid. are available. States and the federal government Enact a Low-Carbon Fuel should also provide incentives for private Standard fleet owners to purchase plug-in vehicles. The larger goal of using electricity as a Private fleet owners are more likely than fuel is to lower U.S. global warming emis- the average consumer to make decisions sions from transportation. A low-carbon about a car purchase based on its lifetime fuel standard is a policy tool to advance cost, so the same incentive for fleet owners this goal directly. It values each vehicle will result in more car purchases. fuel based on its lifecycle global warming emissions. By incorporating the value of Set Ambitious Targets for low emissions into fuel cost, a low-carbon Technology Development fuel standard will increase the use of clean Once the viability of plug-in vehicles has fuels while also preventing an increase in been demonstrated, the nation will face the dirtier alternatives, such as coal to liquid, challenge of scaling up plug-ins to the mass shale oil, and oil from tar sands. market. One way to help make that leap is A low-carbon fuel standard could be to enact policies that require automakers implemented in several ways, but one of to introduce increasing numbers of plug-in the easiest routes would be to require that vehicles over time. fuel providers—those who refine, import,

28 Charging Ahead or blend fuel—sell fuel with a declin- Expand the Use of Clean, ing carbon content, or buy credits from Renewable Energy electric utilities that supply electricity to A clean electricity grid is vital to unlocking plug-in cars. A beginning point could be a the potential large-scale environmental requirement that transportation fuels be 10 benefit of plug-in vehicles. percent less carbon-intensive by 2020, the Requiring that electric utilities increase standard set by the state of California. the percentage of power that they supply Fuel providers would be required to from renewable sources of electricity would report the full life-cycle global warm- ensure that electricity in the United States 78 ing pollution of the fuels that they sell. becomes cleaner over time. Many states Life-cycle analysis of global warming have renewable energy standards which emissions should include emissions from set specific benchmarks for the use of clean farming practices, land use changes here electricity. The federal government should and worldwide, refining, shipping, and use set a national renewable energy standard, of the fuel. The efficiency for vehicles us- with a minimum of 25 percent of our ener- ing non- fuels in high-efficiency gy supplied by clean and renewable sources plug-in vehicles should also be factored in. such as wind and solar power by 2025. All global warming pollutants, including States and the federal government carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen should make it easier for homeowners and dioxide, from all stages of fuel production businesses to install on-site renewable (including secondary land use impacts) power such as solar panels and wind tur- should be considered. bines. Plug-in cars can also be used to store A low-carbon fuel standard would affect extra electricity generated by on-site wind plug-in cars in two ways. First, utilities may and solar power—for example, a company encourage the purchase of plug-in hybrids could install an array of solar panels on its so that they could reap the value of the garage, which could charge employees’ cars credits refiners need to obtain to comply during the day. The federal government with the standard. Second, because the and many states have incentives and other value of the credits would be tied to the full laws that encourage residential and com- life-cycle emissions of the fuel, the stan- mercial on-site renewables. These policies, dard would provide a small but meaningful such as requirements that new houses are incentive to clean up the electric grid. wired to allow for solar panel installation, A 10 percent reduction in global warm- should be in place in every state. ing emissions from transportation fuels by 2020 is an ambitious, but reasonable, Develop Infrastructure target. By starting the low-carbon fuel Governments can further encourage the standard with a fairly low requirement and use of plug-in cars by encouraging the increasing the target each year, farmers, development of charging and grid infra- researchers and investors can anticipate structure that will allow drivers to take full future demand, developing new energy advantage of plug-in cars. sources and technologies. Implementing a “smart” grid will al- To avoid negative consequences from low better communication and control increasing production of low-carbon fu- of electricity use for both consumers and els, any low-carbon fuel standard should utilities. This will make it possible to man- include provisions to protect air quality, age increasing numbers of plug-in cars and public health, and the environment. use more diverse and distributed sources of clean energy. A “smart” grid will also allow utilities to take advantage of the battery

Moving Toward a Plug-In Future 29 storage available in plug-in cars, and make Cap Carbon Emissions the grid more reliable and efficient.79 The Another way to reduce the global warming American Recovery and Reinvestment Act emissions produced by plug-in vehicles is included $11 billion in funding to develop to enact a mandatory, economy-wide cap a smart grid. The federal government, on global warming emissions. While the states, and utilities should continue to move most immediate impact of an emission cap forward on modernizing our electrical grid would be on the electric grid, encouraging so that we can manage and take advantage the replacement of polluting power plants of an increasing amount of clean energy with cleaner ones, a strong cap could and plug-in cars. eventually also help to encourage the sale Governments can also help expand of plug-in vehicles. access to recharging infrastructure—par- The cap should be set at levels consistent ticularly for would-be plug-in drivers with what science tells us is necessary to who do not have a home garage. Local prevent the worst impacts of global warm- governments should install chargers and ing. At minimum, total U.S. emissions encourage businesses to do so as well. Lo- should be reduced by 35 percent below cal governments could make spots on the 2005 levels by 2020 and by 80 percent sidewalk or in public parking lots available below 2005 levels by 2050. The transporta- to businesses that want to install for-profit tion sector is responsible for a third of the chargers, and local governments could also global warming pollution in the United install public chargers on publicly owned States, so in order to achieve this level of property. reduction we will need to significantly States and the federal government reduce global warming emissions from should build or encourage charging infra- transportation.81 structure to make it possible for drivers to To use our resources most effectively, use electric cars as their primary vehicles. any emission trading program used to Installing fast chargers or battery swapping comply with a global warming emission stations along highways would encourage cap should auction, rather than give away, more people to buy fully electric cars. For emission allowances and use the proceeds example, states could install fast chargers of that auction to accelerate the transition at highway rest stops. There is already a to a clean energy economy and reduce the federal incentive for businesses of 50 per- cost of the program to consumers. Plug-in cent of the cost of installing a car charger, vehicles and recharging stations might be up to $50,000, which gas station owners among the critical clean energy technolo- could use to install fast chargers. The credit gies that could receive funding through expires at the end of 2010, and should be auction revenues. extended so that it will be in effect when plug-in cars are more widely used.80

30 Charging Ahead Notes

1 Thomas A. Becker, Center for 9 Energy-Climate Committee, Sierra Club Entrepreneurship & Technology, University California, Plug for Plug-Ins, 29 July 2006. of California, Berkeley, Electric Vehicles in the 10 Ibid. United States: A New Model With Forecasts to 2030, July 14, 2009. 11 Sherry Boschert, The Cleanest Cars: Well-to- Wheels Emissions Comparisons, May 2008. 2 U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, National Household 12 See note 9. Travel Survey, 2003. 13 See note 11. 3 K. Parks, P. Denholm, and T. Markel, 14 Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Costs and Robert Pratt, Pacific Northwest National and Emissions Associated With Plug-In Hybrid Laboratory, Impacts Assessment of Plug-In Charging in the Xcel Energy Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional Power Service Territory, May 2007. Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, 2007. 4 Scott McCredie, “Plug-In Hybrids: More 15 Ibid. Hype Than Hope?” Wired, 6 May 2009. 16 See note 1. 5 Google.org, RechargeIT Driving Experiment, downloaded from www.google.org/recharge/ 17 Ibid. experiment/, 22 May 2009. 18 W. Short and P. Denholm, National 6 “Timeline: Life & Death of the Electric Renewable Energy Laboratory, A Preliminary Car,” NOW on PBS, 9 June 2006. Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Wind Energy Markets, April 2006. 7 Mark Clayton, “Worldwide Race to Make Better Batteries,” The Christian Science Monitor, 19 See note 14. 22 January 2009. 20 Electric Power Research Institute 8 RAV4-EV: Seattle Electric Vehicle and Natural Resources Defense Council, Association, Toyota RAV4 EV, downloaded from Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid www.seattleeva.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV, Electric Vehicles: Volume 2: United States Air 15 May 2009; 2002 RAV4: ConsumerGuide Quality Analysis Based on AEO-2006 Assumptions Automotive, 2002 Toyota RAV4: Overview, for 2030, July 2007. downloaded from consumerguideauto. 21 Ibid. howstuffworks.com/2002-toyota-rav4.htm, 15 22 Energy Information Administration, U.S. May 2009.

Notes 31 Department of Energy, Annual Energy Outlook 40 Carolyne Zinko, “Electric Car’s 2007 with Projections to 2030, February 2007. Acceleration Leaves Owner Charged Up,” San 23 See note 14. Francisco Chronicle, 1 May 2009. 24 73 percent of the U.S. fleet could be 41 Jack Ewing, “Test-Driving the Electric powered with electricity from existing capacity Mini,” BusinessWeek, 12 March 2009. on the U.S. grid, and the U.S. light vehicle fleet 42 U.S. Department of Energy, Vehicle uses 97 percent of the gasoline in the U.S.: See Technology Program, How Do Gasoline and note 14; 2008 petroleum consumption: Energy Electric Vehicles Compare?, 7 November 2005. Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, Annual Energy Review 2008, 26 June 43 Kevin Bullis, “GM’s Plug-In Hybrid,” 2009. Technology Review, 5 December 2006. 25 See note 14. 44 Rick Cotta, “Hybrid Batteries: None the Worse for Wear?” How Stuff Works, 26 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, downloaded from consumerguideauto. Smart Charger Controller Simplifies Electric howstuffworks.com/hybrid-batteries-none-the- Vehicle Recharging (press release), 30 April 2009. worse-for-wear-cga.htm#, 25 May 2009. 27 Tammy Thompson, Michael Webber and 45 Chris Vander Doelen, “Auto Industry in David T Allen, Air Quality Impacts of Using Throes of Momentous Shift,” Canada.com, 19 Overnight Electricity Generation to Charge Plug- May 2009. In Hybrid Electric Vehicles for Daytime Use, 13 January 2009. 46 A123Systems’ Prius conversion charges in 5.5 hours: A123Systems, Hymotion L5 Plug-In 28 Peter Lilienthal and Howard Brown, Conversion Module (PCM) Owner’s Manual, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2008; BYD’s plug-in hybrid with a 60 mile “Potential Carbon Emissions Reductions from range charges in nine hours: Anthony Kuhn, Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles by 2030,” “Chinese Electric Car Jolts the Competition,” in Charles F. Kutscher, Ed., American Solar NPR, 13 January 2009; Chevy Volt will charge Energy Society, Tackling in the in eight hours: David Pierce, Brent Snavely and U.S.: Potential Carbon Reductions from Energy Katie Merx, “Inside the Volt,” Detroit Free Press, Efficiency and Renewable Energy by 2030, January 17 September 2008. 2007. 29 Austan Librach, Austin Energy, personal 47 U.S. Department of Energy, Energy communication, 24 June 2009. Information Administration, Square Footage Measurements and Comparisons: Caveat Emptor: 30 Steven Letendre, Paul Denholm, and 2001 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, 22 Peter Lilienthal, “Electric & Hybrid Cars: May 2003. New Load, or New Resource?” Public Utilities Fortnightly, December 2006. 48 See note 2. 31 Ibid. 49 Ron Cogan, “Hyundai Santa Fe EV,” Green Car, 1 October 2007. 32 Ibid. 50 Hawaii: See note 49; Washington, 33 Willett Kempton, Jasna Tomić, “Vehicle-to- D.C.: District of Columbia Department Grid Power Implementation: From Stabilizing of Transportation, Mayor Fenty Announces the Grid to Supporting Large-Scale Renewable Partnership With Nissan North America and Energy,” , 1 June 2005. Journal of Power Sources AeroVironment (press release), 7 May 2009. 34 “V2G Generates Electricity—And Cash,” 51 “Electric Evangelist,” The Economist, 30 University of Delaware Messanger, 2008. April 2009. 35 Steven Letendre, Paul Denholm, and Peter Lilienthal, “Electric & Hybrid Cars: 52 See note 1. New Load, or New Resource?” Public Utilities 53 See note 51. Fortnightly, December 2006. 54 Conversion cost: A123Systems, Hymotion, 36 See note 33. downloaded from www.a123systems.com/ 37 Ibid. hymotion, 14 May 2009; tax incentive: U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels & 38 See note 18. Advanced Vehicles Data Center, Hybrid Electric 39 See note 29. Vehicle Incentives and Laws, 3 February 2009.

32 Charging Ahead 55 Bill Vlasic and Nick Bunkley, “G.M. Puts 69 Isidor Buchmann, Lithium-ion Safety Electric Car’s City Mileage in Triple Digits,” Concerns, BatteryUniversity.com, February New York Times, 11 August, 2009. 2007. 56 A. Simpson, National Renewable Energy 70 Tesla Motors, Safety, downloaded from Laboratory, Cost-Benefit Analysis of Plug-In ww.teslamotors.com/design/safety.php, 19 May Hybrid Electric Vehicle Technology, November 2009. 2006. 71 Committee on Appropriations, U.S. House 57 Ibid. of Representatives, Summary: American Recovery and Reinvestment Conference Agreement (press 58 See note 1. release), 13 February 2009. 59 American Automobile Association, Your 72 Brian Clark Howard, “What’s Next, Driving Costs, 2009. Note: this estimate assumes Electric Cars with Dirt-Based Batteries or an average of 15,000 miles driven per year. Ethanol?” The Daily Green, 2 May 2009. 60 Kilowatt hour per mile: U.S. Department 73 U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative of Energy, Energy Efficient and Renewable Fuels & Advanced Vehicles Data Center, Hybrid Energy, What is an Electric Vehicle?, 3 January Electric Vehicle Incentives and Laws, 3 February 2009; Cost of electricity by state: Energy 2009. Information Administration, Average Re tail Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End- 74 U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Use Sector, by State, Year-to-Date through January Fuels & Advanced Vehicles Data Center, 2009 and 2008, 22 April 2009. Massachusetts Hybrid Electric Vehicle Laws and Incentives, 3 February 2009. 61 This assumes an average of 12,000 miles driven per year. 75 U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Fuels & Advanced Vehicles Data Center, Oregon 62 , Frequently Asked Questions, Hybrid Electric Vehicle Laws and Incentives, 3 downloaded from www.pluginamerica. February 2009. org/learn-about-plug-ins/frequently-asked- questions.html, 15 May 2009. 76 See note 4. 63 Chevrolet Volt 5-8 years: Mark Clayton, 77 Committee on Appropriations, U.S. House “Worldwide Race to Make Better Batteries,” of Representatives, Summary: American Recovery The Christian Science Monitor, 22 January 2009; and Reinvestment Conference Agreement (press Tesla Roadster over five years: Martin Eberhard release), 13 February 2009. CEO and JB Straubel CTO, Tesla Motors, A 78 Many of the recommendations in this Bit About Batteries (blog post), 30 November section are based on Alexander Farrell (UC 2006; Nickel Metal Hydride batteries 150,000- Berkeley) and Daniel Sperling (UC Davis), A 200,000 miles: Plug In America, Frequently Low-Carbon Fuel Standard for California, Part 2: Asked Questions, downloaded from www. Policy Analysis, 1 August 2007. pluginamerica.org/learn-about-plug-ins/ 79 Martin LaMonica, “Will Anyone Pay for frequently-asked-questions.html, 15 May 2009. the ‘Smart’ Power Grid?” CNET News, 16 May 64 Fritz R. Kalhammer, Bruce M. Kopf, David 2007. H. Swan, et al, prepared for State of California 80 U.S. Department of Energy, Alternative Air Resources Board, Status and Prospects for Fuels & Advanced Vehicles Data Center, United Zero Emissions Vehicle Technology: Report of the States (Federal) Incentives and Laws: Alternative ARB Independent Expert Panel 2007, 13 April Fuel Infrastructure Tax Credit, 3 February 2009. 2007; Mark Clayton, “Worldwide Race to Make Better Batteries,” The Christian Science Monitor, 81 Energy Information Administration, 22 January 2009. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases Report, 3 December 2008. 65 Norihiko Shirouzu, “Technology Levels Playing Field in Race to Market Electric Car,” 82. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Infor- Wall Street Journal, 12 January 2009. mation Administration, International Energy Statistics, downloaded from www.eia.doe.gov, 13 66 See note 1. May 2010. 67 “New Warning to be Issued About Deadly 83. Union of Concerned Scientists, Offshore Car Fires,” ABC News, 12 October 2005. Drilling Plan Fails to Deliver Energy Security 68 See note 44. (press release), 31 March 2010.

Notes 33 84. Ibid. General, downloaded from www.nissanusa. 85. Comparisons with oil production and com/leaf-electric-car/index#/leaf-electric-car/ import figures are based on U.S. Department of faq/list/general, 7 May 2010. Energy, Energy Information Administration, 89. “Nissan Leaf Pre-Orders Pass 8,000, and Annual Energy Review 2008, 26 June 2009. Counting,” HybridCars.com, downloaded from www.hybridcars.com/news/nissan-leaf-pre- 86. Chevrolet, 2011 Volt, downloaded from www.chevrolet.com/pages/open/default/future/ orders-pass-8000-and-counting-27864.html, 7 volt.do, 7 May 2010. May 2010. 87. Tony Borroz, “Toyota Promises an ‘Affod- 90. Ford, The Ford Story: Ford Transit Connect , 19 February 2010. able’ Plug-In Prius in 2011,” Wired, 14 Decem- Goes Electric ber 2009. 91. Shino Yuasa, “Mitsubishi to Rev Up Electric Car Output,” Associated Press, 23 March 2010. 88. Nissan, Nissan LEAF Electric Car, Answers:

34 Charging Ahead