ISSN: 2560-1601

Vol. 6, No. 3 (PL)

April 2018

Poland Social briefing: Poland Briefing Social Development Dominik Mierzejewski

1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11.

+36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu The latest development in the social sphere is linked to the evaluation of the performance of the Polish parliament, political preferences of Polish citizens, and the assessments on the material well being. The first discussed area shows that 29% of the respondents present positive evaluate the performance of both chambers of the Polish parliament (Sejm and Senate). In general, the positive view was mentioned by the people of the right- wing orientation, supporting Law and Justice party, and participating in the religious practices. The people have delivered the negative perception that identifying themselves with the left parties, and to the lesser extent, with the political center, e.g. the Democratic Left Alliance, Nowoczesna and Civic Platform. Non-religious persons presented the contrary view, and by inhabitants of the most significant cities (of 500,000 and more) and high income per capita (PLN 2,500 and more). Moreover, the Polish citizens positively evaluate President Andrzej Duda, almost two-thirds of Poles (63%, from March an increase of 3 points percentages), and dissatisfied over a quarter (28%). Attitude to the presidency of Andrzej Duda is shaped primarily by world-view of the people. The position of the current President is supported by the Law and Justice supporters, citizens with right-wing views, and people that are positive about their religious life. Furthermore, President Duda is promoted by the villagers, with junior high school or primary vocational educations, and with the lowest income per capita (up to 899 PLN). On the other hand, Polish people who have the negative views on the presidency are the supporters of Nowoczesna, Civic Platform or the Democratic Left Alliance. They identify themselves with the left, non-practising or sporadically participating in religious practices, as well as the inhabitants of the most significant agglomerations, achieving the highest per capita income and with the higher education. Compare to the previous Presidents: A. Kwasniewski, L. Kaczynski, B. Komorowski the current president Andrzej Duda has the relatively proper evaluation. What should be

1 noted here is that President Lech Kaczynski (supported by the Law and Justice) has app. 60% to 70% unfavourable assessment among the Polish citizens.

Graph no 1. The assessments of the Polish Presidents (1998-2018)

Green: good, red: bad Source: CBOS 50/2018. The Evolution of the Parliament, President and Local Governments.

Apart from discussing the central government, the exciting views are delivered on the local politics in Poland. More than 70% praised the work of the local government officials, while 21% criticised them. The assessments of local government activities since March has not changed. Work in April local government officials in their town praises seven ten respondents (70%), while every fifth (21%) criticises it. Residents of the most substantial agglomerations are more often dissatisfied with their local governments (29%) than people from smaller towns. This views should be discussed in the political preferences of the Polish people. If the parliamentary elections were held at the beginning of April, participation in the polls would take over two-thirds adult Poles (69%). At the beginning of April, the ruling party won the competition and gained 46% supports from the respondents declaring their particular participation in the elections. The Law and Justice increased more two points percentages more than in March. As in previous months, the Law and Justice remain “paramount leader” in the popularity ranking of political parties. In the second place, just like a month ago, there is the Civic Platform, which is supported by 16% declared participants in the elections. Compared to last month, the percentage of PO supporters also increased by two percentage points.

2 The situation in the further positions of the ranking has levelled out. The most significant chance to introduce own representatives to the parliament would have the Left Democratic Alliance that is supported by six percent declared voters (by one percentage point more than last month) and Kukiz'15 movement in April five percent of supporters (one point less than in March). The remaining political parties would not be able to introduce their representatives to the Sejm. Only four percent of votes would support Nowoczesna, three percent of potential participants in the elections declared their willingness voting on the Polish People’s Party. Concerning March, both parties lost two percentage points. The same percentage of voters as last month (14%) declares that they do not know who they would give theirs to vote if the parliamentary elections were held now (see two graphs below)

Graph no 2. Support for the Political Parties in Poland since the last elections

Red: the Law and Justice, blue: the Civic Platform, Purple: the Left Democratic Alliance, yellow: Nowoczesna, grey: Kukiz’15 Source: CBOS 50/2018. The Evolution of the Parliament, President and Local Governments.

3 Graph no 3. Support and the level of trust for major political parties in Poland

Political parties: the Law and Justice, the Civic Platform, the Left Democratic Alliance, Kukiz’15 and Nowoczesna. Re: level of support, grey lines: level of trust

Source: CBOS 50/2018. The Evolution of the Parliament, President and Local Governments.

The last issues discussed here is dedicated to the material well being of the Polish society. The majority describes their material situation as average: means enough for them every day, but they have to save on more serious purchases (53%). Every fourth person has more freedom in managing the home budget - they has enough for them for many extra staff without special savings (26%) or can afford a certain luxury (2%). Less than every fifth person declares that lives modestly and has to be very economical on a daily basis (17%), and a few that very poorly, they do not even have enough basic needs (2%). In comparison with last year's, the number of the Polish citizens declaring that they live good or very good (increase in indications by two percentage points), while those who did not determine their standard of living as average (by two points). However, taking into account the longer perspective of the last twenty-five years, you can see a very clear improvement in your own assessment of the financial situation the Polish citizens. At the beginning of the 1990s people who declared modest or poor life were many times more than satisfied with their material situation. In

4 1993, only 3% the respondents claimed that they were living well or very well, while 51% declared that they were alive modestly or poorly. What should be recorded the vast majority of the Polish citizens are not afraid of poverty (78%), with two fifths (41%) expressing fears that their situation may deteriorate, and that a slightly smaller group of respondents (37%) is calm that he can handle financially. One fifth of respondents fear poverty (21%), including 17% think they will manage somehow, and 4% feel helpless. Over the last year, the percentage of respondents fearing poverty decreased by six points percentage), and increased of those who do not express such concerns (by six points), in particular came those who are completely calm about their financial situation (increase by 7 points). Over half of the respondents (56%) positively assess the material conditions of their households, two-fifths (39%) on average, and every twenty-five (5%) negatively. Over the past three decades, the material conditions of households have improved enormously. At the beginning of the 1990, there were relatively few respondents satisfied with their own material conditions. In the following years, the perception of material conditions improved, and especially the high dynamics of this trend during periods of economic recovery was noted. Since August 2006, people satisfied with their own material conditions are more than dissatisfied, and this advantage is still growing. For more than three years, satisfaction from the material conditions of households prevails not only over dissatisfaction, but also on average marks. It should be noted that good assessments of material conditions are going in line with the record low unemployment rate, which in February 2018 was on the level 6.8%.

Conclusions The material well being of the Polish society, as discussed in the briefing should be perceived as the driven force behind the political preferences. Although the richest and the most educated strata support the liberal and the left, the central part of society is living on the averages, and their perceives their

5 situation in more favourable light than before. The support for the Law and Justice remains very high. The political support for the Law and Justice is mainly coming from the countryside, small towns and people with high school education. This support is primarily driven by the fact that the current government is supporting this person with the material assistance. As discussed above the citizens of the big cities are mainly helps the centre and the left parties. In the upcoming local elections the Law and Justice are supposed to win in small towns, and rural areas, while the coalitions sponsored by the Civic Platform, and Nowoczesna with the Left Democratic Alliance support will win in the cities. This situation, however, creates the paradox when the opposition parties will govern the local development of significant urban areas that are considered to be the primary vehicle for the economic growth. This situation might provide the case when the political quarrelers will determine the development at the local level.

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