Annual Data and Assumptions Report July 2019
COMMUNITY & STRATEGIC PLANNING DIVISION DEVELOPMENT SERVICES DEPARTMENT
410 E 5TH STREET • LOVELAND, CO • PH. 970-962-2745 • www.CityofLoveland.org/DC Top: Rialto Theater Left: A City with HeART Middle: Downtown Loveland Right: Northern Colorado Regional Airport ANNUAL DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS REPORT 2019 Welcome This report provides general organizations, and businesses outside from City departments should quote information regarding the City’s the City to assist in preparing reports, population numbers or estimates as people, housing, and economy. This feasibility studies, market studies, etc. presented in this report. The report will information is intended to serve as the It is intended that access to this central be updated annually. basis for projections and assumptions source of information will ensure better in operational and financial plans consistency in the assumptions and generated by City departments and information included in such reports. divisions. We also hope this report For example, all documents, plans, web will provide information for citizens, pages, and information disseminated
REGIONAL CONTEXT 1 ECONOMY 15 Commercial Vacancy Rates...... 15 LOCAL SNAPSHOT 2 Commuting Mode (mode split)...... 16 Land Area and Annexations...... 3 Household Income...... 17 Median Family Income...... 18 PEOPLE 4 Educational Attainment...... 18 Population and Housing Estimates and Consumer Price Index...... 19 Projections...... 4 Labor Force & Unemployment Rate...... 19 Population Age Distribution...... 6 Employees by Industry Type...... 20 Race, Ethnicity and Sex...... 7 Loveland’s Largest Employers...... 20 Households by Type...... 7 Sales and Use Tax...... 21 Residence One Year Ago...... 8 Property Tax...... 21 Disability Status...... 8 Sales Tax Rate...... 22 Personal Income Tax ...... 22 HOUSING 9 Centerra Fee District...... 22 Housing Tenure...... 9 Corporate Income Tax...... 22 Residential Building Permits...... 10 Food and Home Consumption Tax Rate...... 22 Dwelling Units by Type...... 11 Average Home Sale Price...... 12 Residential Inventory...... 13 Apartment Vacancy Rate...... 14 Median Rent...... 14 Image: Lake Loveland & Scuplture ANNUAL DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS REPORT 2019 HOW DOES THIS DATA WORK?
Loveland is a home rule municipality Since the Census only happens every Certain, more localized data sets, such who has a strong collaborative 10 years, most of the information is as vacancy rates or building permits relationship with the North Front based on the ACS estimates because it can be aggregated on an annual basis. Range Metropolitan Organization is an ongoing survey that provides vital Therefore, these data sets are able to and the State Demographer’s Office. information on a yearly basis. have 2018 year end numbers. These Understanding the numbers in more granular numbers, in turn, are this report is crucial as it provides The challenge with this information used in helping Loveland project how it foundational information regarding being collected, is it must be sorted will budget and where it will see change the City’s demographics. and analyzed prior to distribution, and over the coming years. thus, the actual numbers are based on The majority of the information the most recent ACS 5-year estimates For any additional questions, please contained in this document comes which are from 2013 to 2017. All of the contact: from the U.S. Census Bureau and other short-term forecasts, i.e. 2019 Community & Strategic Planning the American Community Survey and 2020, are calculated on proposed P: 970.962.2745 (ACS) 5 Year Estimates (ACS is projects and other economic factors. E: [email protected] a part of the Census Bureau). REGIONAL CONTEXT Loveland is located in the emerging and dynamic Northern Colorado region. With a population of 77,231 at the end of 2018 within a 35 square mile area, Loveland has enjoyed a steady population growth of approximately two percent annually over many years. The community is located 46 miles north of downtown Denver on the I-25 Corridor. Nestled in a valley at the entrance to the Big Thompson Canyon with a short ride to the Rocky Mountain National Park, Loveland is known as the Gateway to the Rockies.
1 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2019 LOCAL SNAPSHOT • Incorporated: 1881 • Recreation: • Government Type: Home Rule Municipality 492 acres of park land 28 natual areas/open spaces • County: Larimer 35 city parks and 1 sports complex • Population: 77,231 4,600 acres of preserved open lands 22 miles of recreational trails • Land Area: 35.63 Square Miles New outdoor fitness park • Housing Units: 32,587 3 golf courses and a mini course • Education and Schools: Lake Loveland Swim Beach Thompson R2J School District Senior center Aims Community College Outdoor swimming pool Colorado Christian University • Transportation: Nearby colleges include: Northern Colorado Regional Airport Colorado State University (Fort Denver International Airport, DIA (70 Collins), University of North Colorado miles) (Greeley), University of Colorado at City of Loveland Transit (COLT) Boulder FLEX Bus Route • Median Home Sale Price: $398,664 I-25, Hwy 34, Hwy 287 • Median Family Income: $75,398 • Shopping Centers: Downtown Loveland
*All data from City of Loveland or ACS 2013-2017 5 Year Summaries Promenade Shops at Centerra
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C L CA T T ST SW A S R R This map product was prepared for use by the City of Loveland for its internal purposes only, and was not designed or intended for general use by
AR A F R WRA GL R WA members of the public. The City makes no representation of warranty as to its accuracy, and in particular, it s accuracy in labeling, dimensions, S C U T R A R A C U T S S ALL W R contours, property boundaries, or placement or location of any map features thereon. LOVELAND MAKES NO WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY UPPL L A R OR WARRANTY FOR FITNESS OF USE FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO THIS MAP PRODUCT. Any user
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damage, loss, or liability, whether direct, indirect, or consequential, which arises or may arise from this map product or the use thereof by any C A A S CT T S C U T R A person or entity. LUFF L P R CT L SSA R L CA L ST
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2 Community and Strategic Planning Land Area and Annexations 40 COL Area and Annexations Loveland has plenty of land to 38 accommodate its growing population. Since incorporation, Loveland has 36 expanded through annexation nearly every year. Today, Loveland has grown 34 to 35.63 square miles or 22,850 acres. 32 Ultimately, the land area in which the city will grow will comprise 66 square 30 miles in what is known as the Growth Management Area. 28 Total City Area (Sq Mi) (Sq Area City Total The City has seen a lull in annexations 26 over the past few years. However, 24 several large annexations are occurring at the time of this report. 22
20 1995 1997 1999 2001 2002* 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Acres Annexed and City Land Area, 1997 - 2018 Year Net Acres Annexed Total City Area (Acres) Total City Area (Sq. Mi) 1997 139.92 15,296.70 23.9 1998 312.01 15,608.71 24.39 1999 393.29 16,002.00 25 2000 2,290.24 18,292.24 28.58 2001 563.06 18,885.30 29.46 2002 313.72 19,169.02 29.95 2002* -184.80 18,984.22 29.66 2003 621.91 19,606.13 30.63 2004 280.84 19,886.97 31.07 2005 203.35 20,090.32 31.37 2006 869.05 20,959.37 32.75 2007 188.55 21,147.92 33.04 2008 987.31 22,135.23 34.59 2009 189.44 22,324.67 34.88 2010 118.99 22,443.66 35.07 2011 91.51 22,598.40 35.31 2012 60.44 22,658.80 35.40 2013 6.44 22,665.20 35.41 2014 0 22,665.20 35.41 2015 6.4 22,669.90 35.41 2016 83.2 22,748.40 35.54 2017 38.4 22,786.80 35.60 2018 64.13 22,850.93 35.63 Source: City of Loveland GIS Division *Disconnections per Ord. #4721 and Ord. #4737 reduced totals by 184.80 acres in 2002.
3 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2019 PEOPLE
Left: Annual Corn Population and Housing Estimates and Projections Roast Festival Right: Summer Loveland continues to grow keep up with demand. Concert series at robustly, having added over 6,000 the Foote Lagoon residents since the 2010 Census. To develop population forecasts, it However, based on building permit is assumed that in the short term, data compared with growth rate population growth is dependent on forecasts from the Colorado State housing supply. And in the long term, Demographer’s Office, Loveland is not it is assumed that housing supply will adding enough new housing units to match demand.
140,000 Population & Housing Estimates 120,000 114,408
100,000 2018: 77,231 80,000
60,000 48,273 2018: 40,000 32,587 Housing & Population Estimate/Projections 20,000
0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
Population Estimate Population Forcast Housing Estimate Housing Forcast *Population Estimates and Projections from COL Building & Strategic Planning 4 Community and Strategic Planning To generate population estimates (2010 – 2017) and near-term forecasts Population Estimates and Projections (2018 – 2019), the number of dwelling units, derived from Building Division Year Population Annual Housing Housing Units records and forecasts, is multiplied Estimate/ Population Units % Change from by 2.37, which is the estimated Projection % Change Previous number of persons per dwelling from Previous unit in Loveland. For the forecasts 2010 67,742 -- 28,583 -- of population in 2018 and beyond, 2011 68,761 1.5% 29,013 1.50% growth rates developed by the State Demographer’s Office (SDO) for 2012 69,341 0.84% 29,258 0.84% the Loveland sub-area are applied. 2013 70,370 1.48% 29,692 1.48% Housing unit estimates (2011 – 2017) 2014 71,027 0.93% 29,969 0.93% and near term forecasts (2018-2019) are from City of Loveland Building 2015 73,420 3.37% 30,979 3.37% Division records and forecasts. Longer 2016 74,385 1.31% 31,524 1.76% term forecasts for population (2019 2017 75,840 1.96% 32,000 1.51% and beyond) are developed by dividing 2018 77,231 1.88% 32,587 1.88% population forecasts by 2.37. 2019 79,150 2.48% 33,325 2.26% Over the past five years, on average, 2020 81,208 2.60% 33,803 1.43% the City has grown at 1.81%, which 2021 83,320 2.60% 34,860 3.13% is well below the forecast from the 2022 85,486 2.60% 35,481 1.78% NFRMPO and closer to that of the 2023 87,709 2.60% 36,095 1.73% SDO. Furthermore, the Northern Front Range Metropolitan Planning 2024 89,989 2.60% 36,706 1.69% Organization (NFRMPO) estimates are 2025 91,969 2.20% 37,314 1.66% becoming outdated. Therefore, for 2026 93,992 2.20% 37,919 1.62% the long-term growth forecasts, we 2027 96,060 2.20% 38,515 1.57% are applying the growth rates from the SDO. This results in significantly 2028 98,173 2.20% 39,080 1.47% less population growth than previous 2029 100,333 2.20% 39,643 1.44% forecasts. 2030 102,199 1.86% 40,201 1.41% 2031 104,100 1.86% 40,755 1.38% As of July 1, 2017 the US Census has Loveland’s population estimated 2032 106,036 1.86% 41,306 1.35% at 76, 701. Part of the challenge of 2033 108,009 1.86% 41,851 1.32% this, is it uses dated and incomplete 2034 110,018 1.86% 42,392 1.29% information, whereas, the staff 2035 111,932 1.74% 42,927 1.26% derived number of 75, 840 is through December 31, 2017 and is based on 2036 113,880 1.74% 43,458 1.23% detailed housing permit data. 2037 115,861 1.74% 43,984 1.21% 2038 117,877 1.74% 44,505 1.19% Knowing that the next economic 2039 119,928 1.74% 45,023 1.16% recession is inevitable, but not knowing exactly when it will occur 2040 122,015 1.74% 45,557 1.19% – City staff is currently including the 2041 124,138 1.74% 46,108 1.21% expectation of a recession in 2020. 2042 126,298 1.74% 46,654 1.19% There is concern due to softening sales 2043 128,496 1.74% 47,197 1.16% tax revenue and increased building 2044 130,731 1.74% 47,737 1.14% costs, in turn a possible market check may surmount to help correct the 2045 133,006 1.74% 48,273 1.12% aggressive market conditions.
Source: US Census Bureau, City of Loveland Building Division, Colorado State Demographer’s Office, City of Loveland Development Services Dept. 5 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2019 Population Age Distribution As the City has grown, it has become This gives evidence to Loveland’s older overall. As shown in the figure popularity among baby boomers and Generational Breakdown Ages and table below, the number of retirees. Nevertheless, the number Greatest Generation (- 1927) ≥ 92 school-aged children (under 19) fell of those between ages 20-34 stayed Silent Generation (1928-1945) 75 - 92 by 17%. At the opposite end of the steady, which may suggest that the spectrum, the age groups over 45 City is attracting more millennials as Baby Boomers (1946-1964) 55 - 74 experienced the sharpest growth rate well. Gen X (1965-1979) 40 - 54 at 21%. The median age, meanwhile, Millennial (1980-1999) 19- 39 went35.0% from 38 to 40. Next Generation (2000+) ≤ 19
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0% Percentage of Population 10.0%
5.0%
0.0% 0-19 20-34 35-44 45-64 65-84 85+
Loveland 2000 Loveland 2017
Northern Colorado: Population Age Distribution City 0-19 20-34 35-44 45-64 65-84 85+ Median Male Female Years Years Years Years Years Years Age Loveland, 2000 29.5% 18.9% 17.0% 22.1% 10.9% 1.6% 36.0 49.0% 51.0% Loveland, 2017 23.6% 19.6% 12.8% 26.2% 15.4% 2.4% 39.1 48.7% 51.3% % Change -20.0% 3.7% -24.7% 18.6% 41.3% 50.0% 8.6% -0.6% 0.6%
Fort Collins, 2000 27.5% 32.9% 14.6% 17.1% 6.7% 1.2% 28.2 50.2% 49.8% Fort Collins, 2017 24.8% 33.8% 11.7% 20.3% 7.9% 1.5% 29.3 49.9% 50.1% % Change -9.8% 2.7% -19.9% 18.7% 17.9% 25.0% 3.9% -0.6% 0.6%
Greeley, 2000 31.9% 27.1% 13.0% 18.0% 8.6% 1.5% 28.5 49.0% 51.0% Greeley, 2017 30.7% 25.1% 12.4% 20.3% 9.8% 1.7% 30.5 49.3% 50.7% % Change -3.8% -7.4% -4.6% 12.8% 14.0% 13.3% 7.0% 0.6% -0.6%
Source: 2013-17 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimate 2000 Census 6 Community and Strategic Planning Race, Ethnicity, and Sex The minority population in Loveland Loveland Race, Ethnicity and Sex has grown 72% since 2000. The city is almost evenly split between males Race 2000 2017 and females, with non-white residents Persons % Persons % making up 8% of the total population. Total Population 50,608 100% 74,125* 100% Male 24,795 49% 36,062 49% *74,125 is the US Census’ estimated Female 25,813 51% 38,063 51% population at the end of 2017. This is their standard number used to derive White 46,990 93% 68,936 93% all other estimates. Black or African American 188 0.4% 298 0.4% Asian 419 0.8% 713 1% American Indian 349 0.7% 439 0.6% Some Other Race 2,077 4.1% 1,391 1.9% Two or More Races 1,023 2% 2,242 3% Hispanic or Latino 4,337 9% 8,738 11.8%
Loveland’s minority population has grown over 70% since 2000.
Source: The number of other races has decreased 2013-2017 American Community Survey, 5-year from 2.7% to 1.9%. Estimate 2000 Census
Households by Type Loveland Households by Type As Loveland has grown, it has become As % of total households older overall with more single or young childless couples. While the number of 2000 2017 households grew 50% since 2000, the Total Households 19,743 30,724 average household size shrank from Families 71% 64.8% 2.55 to 2.40. Meanwhile, the number with own children under 18 years 35% 25.4% of households with families decreased Married-couple Family 58% 50.6% from 71% to 64.8% since 2000. with own children under 18 years 26% 17.8% The percent of households with Female householder, no husband present, family 10% 9.0% children under 18 declined over the with own children under 18 years 7% 4.9% 16-year period. All of these factors Non-family households 29% 35.2% are indicative of an aging population Householder living alone 22% 27.8% and, to a lesser extent, young single professionals and young to middle 65 years and over 9% 12.9% aged couples with no or few children. Households with one or more people under 18 years 37% 29.5% Households with one or more people over 65 years 22% 30.5%
Source: 2013-17 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimate Average Household Size 2.55 2.40 2000 Census Average family size 3.01 2.91
7 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2019 Residence One Year Ago The American Community Survey asks the past year. Compared to peer questions about whether a person communities, Lovelanders appear moved in the last year (and where) to be more likely to remain in their to create statistics about migration residences for a longer period of patterns. This information is useful time. The colleges in Fort Collins and in planning for the migration in both Greeley may play a role in this by urban and rural areas. In Loveland increasing their transient (i.e. student) roughly eight out of ten people residents. remained in their residence over
Regional Comparision: Resided in Same House Loveland: Residence One Year Ago (2018) Population 1 year and over 73,428 Same house 61,316 83.5% 71% Same county 7,131 9.7% Different County 4,711 6.4% 74% Same state 2,117 2.9% 83% Different state 2,594 3.5% Different house in US 11,842 16.1% Abroad 270 0.4%
Source: 2013-17 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimate Disability Status The American Community Survey Various types of disabilities require Over 10% of Lovelanders are actively considers those with a disability as different and special approaches living with a disability. However, one having vision, hearing, cognitive, to providing education and other in three residents over 65 in age are ambulatory, self-care, or independent accommodations. living with a disability, which appears living difficulty. to be generally in line with other Northern Colorado communities.
Regional Comparison: Over 65 years old with a disability Loveland: Disability Status (2017) Total civilian noninstitutional 73,692 100% population 33.3% with a disability 8,856 12%
Under 18 years 16,129 37.8% 27.7% with a disability 681 4.2%
Population 65 years and over 12,830 with a disability 3,795 29.6%
Source: 2013-17 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimate 8 Community and Strategic Planning HOUSING
Left: Urban, mixed Housing Tenure use at Gallery Flats Right: The Foundry Housing tenure refers to the status of Since 2000, the percentage of renters Redevelopment a home: either as owner-occupied or in Loveland has increased, while the renter-occupied. Loveland has more percentage of owners has decreased. homeowners and fewer renters than nearby peer communities.
Owner Occupied Housing 2000 2017 71.4% 63.1%
+8.4% -8.4%
Renter Occupied Housing 2000 2017 28.6% 36.9%
Owner Occupied Renter Occupied 2017 2017 Loveland 63.1% 36.9% Fort Collins 54% 46% Greeley 56% 44% Larimer County 64% 36%
Source: 2013-2017 American Communities Survey 5-Year Estimates 9 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2019 Residential Building Permits Building permits for detached single duplexes continue to steadily increase and multi-family categories have family homes appear to be steadily over the past couple years. Multi- seen an upward trend since 2009, rebounding since the Great Recession, family permits are often applied for but single-family battles against high experiencing an overall increase over in batches with individual projects, construction costs. Single-family the past few years. Construction of which explains the year-to-year jumps attached and duplex construction are attached single family homes and in permit numbers. Both single-family also on a steady rise.
800
700
600 Single Family Detached 500 Multi-Family Units
400
Number of Permits 300
200
SF Attached and Duplex Units 100
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Single Family Detached SF Attached and Duplex Units Multi-Family Units -8.4% Year Single Family Single Family Attached Multi-Family Units Total Detached & Duplex Units 2018 180 75 334 589 2017 228 52 246 526 2016 352 40 176 568 2015 454 28 155 637 2014 292 39 486 817 2013 233 25 109 367 2012 243 31 104 378 2011 150 15 28 193 2010 105 24 595 724 2009 66 3 6 75 2008 110 29 87 226 2007 217 64 0 281 2006 370 75 429 874 2005 653 121 118 892 2004 731 164 137 1032 Source: City of Loveland Building Division 10 Community and Strategic Planning Dwelling Units by Type Detached single family homes Within a suburban context, continue to dominate the market in homeownership is often correlated Loveland, as larger greenfield and infill with housing structure as the majority projects for multi-family are becoming of owner-occupied units are single- less appealing to the buyer. family houses rather than multifamily buildings, but we do predict a steady multi-family, non ownership housing stock for those who are in the market for a more flexible residence.
Single Family Housing Single Family, Attached Multi-family
65% 10% 25% Loveland: Dwelling Units by Type Units by Dwelling Loveland:
City of Loveland Dwelling Units by Type Existing Units Construction (built) Type 2017 ACS 1995 - 2000 2001 - 2005 2006 - 2010 2011 - 2016 Single Family, Detached 65.5% 71% 63% 40% 46% Single Family, Attached 9.6% 10% 16% 9% 3% Multi-family 25% 20% 21% 51% 52%
Source: 2013-2017 American Communities Survey 5-Year Estimates; City of Loveland Building Division
11 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2019 Average Home Sale Price Similar to other Northern Colorado With double digit gains for the last two communities, Loveland home sale years, Fort Collins and Loveland rank prices have continued to steadily rise #9 and #10 respectively in the top 40 over the past several years. In 2017, U.S. markets for appreciation. the average sale price in Loveland was $381,079, up 8% from the previous year.
$500,000
$450,000 $420,132$428,709 $400,000 $398,664
$350,000
$300,000 $301,603
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000 Average Home Sale Price Sale Home Average
$100,000
$50,000
$0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 Loveland/Berthoud Fort Collins/Wellington Greeley/Evans Windsor
Average Home Sales Price Year Loveland/ % Fort Collins/ % Greeley/Evans % Windsor % Berthoud Change Wellington Change Change Change 2018 $398,664 +8 $428,709 +6 $301,603 +10 $420,132 +11 2017 $381,079 +11 $397,067 +10 $277,869 +13 $434,242 +3 2016 $351,498 +12 $373,703 +13 $252,966 +11 $390,291 +9 2015 $316,730 +9 $339,763 +8 $224,556 +14 $377,627 +9 2014 $281,405 +5 $300,365 +7 $202,215 +9 $347,384 +6 2013 $258,347 +4 $279,111 +3 $177,192 +14 $318,219 +3 2012 $245,221 +1 $260,654 +1 $161,960 +0 $300,813 -3 2011 $233,552 +2 $253,613 +5 $142,141 +2 $290,769 +5 2010 $231,381 -7 $250,386 -5 $142,299 -8 $299,966 -8 2009 $226,021 -5 239,223 -2 $139,411 -6 $286,160 -4
Source: The Group, Inc Annual Report 12 Community and Strategic Planning Residential Inventory Since the recession, Loveland’s slightly less than Fort Collins and the number of sales (orange line) has housing market appears to be Greeley. As shown on the chart below, increased. This suggests that the rate tightening. In Loveland, 80% of homes the number of listed homes (blue line) of demand may be outstripping that of listed in 2018 were sold, which is has decreased over time, whereas supply.
4,000
3,500
3,000
2608 2,500
2076 2,000
1,500 Number of Homes Listed or Soldor of Homes ListedNumber 1,000
500
0 Listed Sold 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year Loveland Fort Collins Greeley Windsor Listed Sold Listed Sold Listed Sold Listed Sold 2018 2608 2076 4,433 3,642 4,060 3,431 1,904 1,457 2017 2716 2275 4,625 3,826 3,851 3,388 1,505 1,007 2016 2703 2163 4,374 3,809 4,065 3,462 1,297 1,027 2015 2690 2266 4,610 3,841 4,155 3.553 1,093 829 2014 2347 1977 4,419 3,816 4,153 3,559 997 787 2013 2582 2121 4,528 3,878 3,689 2,997 1,068 819 2012 2442 1795 4,176 3,374 3,095 2,389 981 728 2011 2132 1443 3,698 2,736 2,910 2,163 869 557 2010 2565 1376 4,434 2,783 3,506 2,067 930 501
Source: The Group, Inc. 2019 13 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2019 Apartment Vacancy Rate Northern Colorado communities have In Loveland, apartment vacancy rates Regional Comparison: seen a decrease in apartment vacancy tend to be volatile due to the small Apartment Vacancy Rates rates since the beginning of 2018. size of the market; new supply can greatly increase the vacancy rate.
3.3%
Loveland Greeley Fort Collins Statewide 1.3% 4Q 18 3.4 2.5 2.3 5.6 3.4% 3Q 18 2.3 3.0 2.9 5.2 2Q 18 2.7 3.6 4.1 5.9 1Q 18 3.4 1.3 3.3 5.8 4Q 17 3.8 2.2 3.0 6.0
Source: Colorado Division of Housing Multi-family Housing Vacancy and Rental
Median Rent Since the 1st quarter of 2015, However, after these significant Loveland’s median rent has increased increases, rent in Northern Colorado by 7.6%, Greeley’s has increased by may be stabilizing throughout 2019. Regional Comparision: 16%, and Fort Collins’ has increased Median Rent by 2.2%.
Loveland Greeley Fort Collins +2.2% 4Q 18 $1,368.21 $1,108.61 $1,346.03 3Q 18 $1,324.57 $1,189.67 $1,329.06 +16% +7.6% 2Q 18 $1,344.01 $1,123.80 $1,337.40 1Q 18 $1,326.00 $1,112.14 $1,309.11 4Q 17 $1,378.08 $1,085.96 $1,275.83 Source: Colorado Division of Housing Multi-family Housing Vacancy and Rental
14 Community and Strategic Planning Economy
Left and Right: Commercial Vacancy Rates Sundial at Mehaffey Park & Great Loveland’s vacancy rate for office The overall percentage of vacant space Western Sugar space decreased, while industrial and is highest in Loveland when compared Factory retail space decreased dramatically. to nearby peer communities.
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0% Greeley Greeley Greeley Greeley Greeley Loveland Loveland Loveland Loveland Loveland Longmont Fort Collins Fort Collins Fort Collins Fort Collins Fort Collins Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Industrial Retail Office
Loveland Fort Collins Greeley 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 Industrial 14% 4% 3% 2% 5% 3% Retail 3% 4% 4% 5% 3% 3% Office 9% 7% 6% 3% 3% 3%
Source: Sperry Van Ness & Group Real Estate Inc.
15 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2019 Commuting Mode (mode split) While those taking public The percentage of people driving to transportation increased by 200% work alone also decreased by nearly since 2000, the total number of transit 2%, while those taking alternative riders is low compared to the overall modes almost tripled from 1% to 2.7%. population.
Loveland Commuters
Drive Alone Carpool Walk
2000 2017 2000 2017 2000 2017 82.5% 81.9% 10.8% 8.2% 1.6% 1.3%
Telecommute Public Transit Other Means
2000 2017 2000 2017 2000 2017 4.0% 5.8% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 2.4%
Loveland Commuters Percent Workers 16 & Over 2000 2017 Drove Alone- Car, truck, or van 82.5% 81.9% Carpooled- Car, truck, or van 10.8% 8.2% Public Transportation 0.1% 0.5% Walked 1.6% 1.3% Other Means 1.0% 2.4% Worked at Home 4.0% 5.8% Mean travel time to work (minutes) -- 24.3
Source: 2000 Census 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates 16 Community and Strategic Planning Household Income City and County Household Income in 2017
Since 2000, the median income of More than $200,000 Lovelanders has grown by nearly $8,500, pulled up by significant growth $150,000 to $199,999 in income brackets over $100,000. $100,000 to $149,999 Considering that the earnings tend $75,000 to $99,999 to peak around the age of 55, the growth in higher income households $50,000 to $74,999 mirrors the growth in baby boomers. $35,000 to $49,999 In addition, the number of people in lower-income households also $25,000 to $34,999 decreased, particularly those earning $15,000 to $24,999 less than $35,000. $10,000 to $14,999
Less than $10,000 Larimer County Loveland 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Median Household Income Loveland Larimer County
2000 2017 2000 2017 $47,119 $61,133 $48,655 $61,942
Total Family Loveland Larimer County Household Income 2000 2017 2000 2017 Total Households 19,855 30,724 97,128 127,067 Less than $10,000 5% 3% 6% 6% $10,000 to $14,999 6% 4% 5% 4% $15,000 to $24,999 12% 10% 11% 10% $25,000 to $34,999 13% 10% 12% 9% $35,000 to $49,999 17% 15% 17% 13% $50,000 to $74,999 25% 19% 22% 18% $75,000 to $99,999 12% 15% 13% 14% $100,000 to $149,000 8% 16% 9% 14% $150,000 to $199,999 2% 6% 3% 6% More than $200,000 1% 3% 2% 5% Median household income $47,119 $61,133 $48,655 $59,805 Mean household income -- $74,761 -- $81,601 Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
17 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2019 Median Family Income The Median Family Income for the Loveland/Fort Collins Metropolitan Service Area (MSA) is above the statewide income of $73,900. The Median Family Income for the MSA has increased to $85,100.
Median Family Income, which differs Number of Median Low Income Very Low Extremely Low from Median Household Income, is Persons per Family (80% AMI) Income (50% Income (30% used for income qualifying projects Household Income AMI) AMI) such as housing and public assistance. 1 $48,850 $30,550 $18,350 How they differ: A household consists 2 $55,800 $34,900 $20,950 of all people who occupy a housing 3 $62,800 $39,250 $23,550 unit regardless of relationship. A household may consist of a person 4 $69,750 $43,600 $26,150 $87,200 living alone or multiple unrelated 5 $75,350 $47,100 $30,170 individuals or families living together. 6 $80,950 $50,600 $34,590 Median family income is typically higher than median household 7 $86,500 $54,100 $39,010 income because of the composition of 8 $92,100 $57,600 $43,430 households.
Source: 2019 HUD Income Guidelines, Fort Collins/Loveland MSA
Educational Attainment Number Percentage Within Loveland in 2017, the majority Population over 25 years 52,085 (95%) of adults were at least high school graduates or higher and one No diploma (9th to 12th grade) 1,605 3.1% in three (35%) reported having a High school graduate (includes equivalency) 13,026 25% bachelor’s degree or higher. A report Some college, no degree 12,661 24.3% by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2017 found that 88% of adults nationwide Associate’s degree 5,342 10.3% have a high school diploma and Bachelor’s degree 12,028 23.1% 33% reported a bachelor’s or higher Graduate or professional degree 6,615 12.7% degree.
High school graduate or higher -- 95% Bachelor’s degree or higher -- 35%
Source: 2013-17 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimate
18 Community and Strategic Planning Consumer Price Index 300 CPI Change The Denver-Boulder-Greeley 261.958 Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a 250 benchmark for inflation and deflation, generally calculated by monitoring the 200 190.9 average cost increase for a number of goods. 150
Since 2007, the CPI has steadily CPI Value increased to its current value of 261, 100 an increase of 27%. 50 For future reference, the index will be changing to the Denver -Aurora- 0 Lakewood CPI. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CPI Value 209.9 208.5 212.5 220.3 224.6 231.1 237.2 240 246.63 255.00 261.958 % Change 3.90% -0.60% 1.90% 3.70% 1.90% 2.80% 2.70% 1.20% 2.77% 3.28% 2.66%
Base Year: 1982 Source: Colorado Legislative Council 12% Labor Force & Unemployment Unemployment Rate Rate 10% The table below shows preliminary estimated labor force, employment and unemployment information 8% as of April 2019. These figures are seasonally adjusted. As of March 1, 2019 the City of Loveland has an 6% unemployment rate of 2.3%.
Unemployment Rate 4%
2%
0%
Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rates March 2019 (Seasonally Adjusted) Labor Force Number Employed Number Unemployed Unemployment Rate City of Loveland 44321 43286 1035 2.30% Colorado 3138600 3039600 99000 2.50%
Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment United States Bureau of Labor Statistics
19 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2019 Employees by Industry Type The table below shows the top 10 industries with the highest annual percent change in Fort Collins- Loveland MSA for the 2014 - 2024 time period. Employees by Industry Type, Fort Collins-Loveland MSA Industry 2017 Est.Employment 2027 Projected Employment Annual % Change Health Care and Social Assistance 20,991 28,322 3.04% Retail Trade 19,064 21,128 1.03% Accomodation and Food Services 18,630 24,685 2.85% Educational Services 17,846 22,036 2.13% Manufacturing 13,734 14,748 0.71% Professional, Scientific, and 10,871 14,692 3.06% Technical Services
Construction 10,699 13,320 2.22%
Local Government 6,809 8,000 1.63% Other Services (except Public 6,449 7,795 1.91% Administration) Wholesale Trade 4,654 6,132 2.80% Finance and Insurance 3,773 4,579 1.96% Transportation and Warehousing 2,985 3,483 1.55% Information 2,833 3,193 1.20% Real Estate and Rental and 3,055 3,770 2.13% Leasing Arts, Entertainment, and 2,651 3,098 1.57% Recreation Federal Government 2,536 2,572 0.14%
Source: Colorado Department of Labor, Labor Market Information
Loveland’s Largest Employers Firm Employees The table to the right lists the top 10 Thompson School District 2000 - 2500 employers in Loveland through 2018. University of Colorado Hospital Authority 1000 - 1500 City of Loveland 1000 - 1500 McKee Medical Center 500 - 999 Walmart Associates Inc. (Distribution 500 - 999 Center) Hach Company Inc. 500 - 999 Walmart Stores 500 - 999 U.S. Engineering CO 500 - 999 University of Colorado Medical Facilities 250 - 499
Aerotek Inc. 250 - 499
Source: City of Loveland, sourced from State Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Report & Economic Development Department
20 Community and Strategic Planning Sales Tax Rates
Sales and Use Tax The overall sales tax rate in Loveland Sales Tax Rates is 6.45% for all locations that are not located in the Promenade Shops at Centerra, Centerra Metropolitan District or the Centerra Motorplex. In State of Colorado City of Loveland those locations the sales tax is 8.3%. 2.90% 3.00% The State of Colorado exempts machinery and equipment purchases used in manufacturing from the state State of Colorado City of Loveland 2.90% 3.00% 2.9% sales/use tax.
Loveland does not collect use tax on personal property, however, it does collect 3.0% on vehicles and building Larimer County materials. 0.65% Larimer County City-wide0.65% Mill Levies
City of Loveland Larimer County State of Colorado City of Loveland Larimer County State of Colorado
Property Tax City of Loveland Commercial and industrial properties City-wide Mill Levies9.564, 13% are assessed at 29.0% and residential properties at 7.2% of their market value. The result is for properties of equal value, a business pays over City of Loveland three times as much property tax as a 9.564, 13% residence.
The 2018 mill levy rate, which funds School District Larimer County the 2019 budget, will remain at the 40.416, 54% 22.424, 30% 2014 level, 9.564 mills. The City’s levy has been 9.564 since 1992 School District Larimer County 40.416, 54% 22.424, 30% and Loveland continues to have one of the lowest city government property tax levies in northern Colorado. On average, the City collects 97.5% of the total tax levy.
Special Districts A number of special districts also 2.661Special, 3% Districts overlap portions of the City’s 2.661, 3% City of Loveland Larimer County Special Districts School District boundaries and affect some properties. Loveland’s City government City of Loveland Larimer County Special Districts School District sets only the City mill levy and has no control over mill levies set by other entities.
Source: City of Loveland Budget Division, State of Colorado 21 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2019 Sales and Use Tax Rate Centerra Fee District Food and Home Consumption Tax Rate The City of Loveland’s sales and use tax Businesses located in the Centerra Fee The City of Loveland’s food for home rates are both 3.0%. districts sales tax rate is 1.75% and consumption tax rate is 3.0%. is in addition to the district fees. The district also includes a 1.25% PIF and a 1% Retail Sales Fee.
Personal Income Tax Corporate Income Tax County and State Tax
The State of Colorado Personal Income Colorado’s corporate income tax Larimer County has a tax rate of 0.65% Tax rate is 4.63% of federal taxable is a flat 4.63% of Colorado net while the State of Colorado has a tax income. income, defined as the corporation’s rate of 2.9%. federal taxable income with some modifications.
Source: City of Loveland Budget Division, State of Colorado
22 Community and Strategic Planning