Annual Data and Assumptions Report December 2020

Home , El Diente Peak, Ridgway State Park

COMMUNITY & STRATEGIC PLANNING DIVISION DEVELOPMENT SERVICES DEPARTMENT

410 E 5TH STREET • LOVELAND, CO • PH. 970-962-2745 • www.CityofLoveland.org/DC Top: Rialto Theater Left: A City with HeART Middle: Downtown Loveland Right: Northern Colorado Regional Airport ANNUAL DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS REPORT 2019 Welcome This report provides general the City to assist in preparing reports, presented in this report. The report will information regarding the City’s feasibility studies, market studies, etc. be updated annually. people, housing, and economy. This It is intended that access to this central information is intended to serve as the source of information will ensure better Data in this report is for 2019 and basis for projections and assumptions consistency in the assumptions and generally does not reflect the in operational and financial plans information included in such reports. economic impacts of the COVID-19 generated by City departments and For example, all documents, plans, web pandemic. 2020 data is presented divisions. We also hope this report pages, and information disseminated where available, but will be covered will provide information for citizens, from City departments should quote more completely in the 2021 report. organizations, and businesses outside population numbers or estimates as

REGIONAL CONTEXT 1 ECONOMY 15 Commercial Vacancy Rates...... 15 LOCAL SNAPSHOT 2 Commuting Mode (mode split)...... 16 Land Area and Annexations...... 3 Household Income...... 17 Median Family Income...... 18 PEOPLE 4 Educational Attainment...... 18 Population and Housing Estimates and Consumer Price Index...... 19 Projections...... 4 Labor Force & Unemployment Rate...... 19 Population Age Distribution...... 6 Employees by Industry Type...... 20 Race, Ethnicity and Sex...... 7 Loveland’s Largest Employers...... 20 Households by Type...... 7 Sales and Use Tax...... 21 Residence One Year Ago...... 8 Property Tax...... 21 Disability Status...... 8 Sales Tax Rate...... 22 Personal Income Tax ...... 22 HOUSING 9 Centerra Fee District...... 22 Housing Tenure...... 9 Corporate Income Tax...... 22 Residential Building Permits...... 10 Food and Home Consumption Tax Rate...... 22 Dwelling Units by Type...... 11 Average Home Sale Price...... 12 Residential Inventory...... 13 Apartment Vacancy Rate...... 14 Median Rent...... 14 Image: Lake Loveland & Scuplture ANNUAL DATA AND ASSUMPTIONS REPORT 2019 HOW DOES THIS DATA WORK?

Loveland is a home rule municipality Since the Census only happens every Certain, more localized data sets, such who has a strong collaborative 10 years, most of the information is as vacancy rates or building permits relationship with the North Front based on the ACS estimates because it can be aggregated on an annual basis. Range Metropolitan Organization is an ongoing survey that provides vital Therefore, these data sets are able to and the State Demographer’s Office. information on a yearly basis. have 2019 year end numbers. These Understanding the numbers in more granular numbers, in turn, are this report is crucial as it provides The challenge with this information used in helping Loveland project how it foundational information regarding being collected, is it must be sorted will budget and where it will see change the City’s demographics. and analyzed prior to distribution, and over the coming years. thus, the actual numbers are based on The majority of the information the most recent ACS 5-year estimates For any additional questions, please contained in this document comes which are from 2014 to 2018. All of the contact: from the U.S. Census Bureau and other short-term forecasts, i.e. 2020 Community & Strategic Planning the American Community Survey and 2021, are calculated on proposed P: 970.962.2745 (ACS) 5 Year Estimates (ACS is projects and other economic factors. E: [email protected] a part of the Census Bureau). REGIONAL CONTEXT Loveland is located in the emerging and dynamic Northern Colorado region. With a population of 77,231 at the end of 2018 within a 35 square mile area, Loveland has enjoyed a steady population growth of approximately two percent annually over many years. The community is located 46 miles north of downtown Denver on the I-25 Corridor. Nestled in a valley at the entrance to the Big Thompson Canyon with a short ride to the Rocky Mountain National Park, Loveland is known as the Gateway to the Rockies.

1 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2020 LOCAL SNAPSHOT • Incorporated: 1881 • Recreation: • Government Type: Home Rule Municipality 492 acres of park land 30 natural areas/open spaces • County: Larimer 35 city parks and 1 sports complex • Population: 79,150 5,413 acres of preserved open lands 28 miles of recreational trails • Land Area: 35.63 Square Miles Outdoor fitness park • Housing Units: 32,587 3 golf courses and a mini course • Education and Schools: Lake Loveland Swim Beach Thompson R2J School District Senior center & community rec center Aims Community College Outdoor swimming pool Colorado Christian University • Transportation: Nearby colleges include: Northern Colorado Regional Airport Colorado State University (Fort Denver International Airport, DIA (70 Collins), University of North Colorado miles) (Greeley), University of Colorado at City of Loveland Transit (COLT) Boulder FLEX Bus Route • Median Home Sale Price: $409,236 I-25, Hwy 34, Hwy 287 • Median Family Income: $80,724 • Shopping Centers: Downtown Loveland

*All data from City of Loveland or ACS 2015-2019 5 Year Summaries Promenade Shops at Centerra

City Limits Map Updated: July 2019 NELSON RESERVOIR

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H M E ROBIN DR AY This map product was prepared for use by the City of Loveland for its internal purposes only, and was not designed or intended for general use by N R W BO E I GL S AN H FOX DR E WR members of the public. The City makes no representation of warranty as to its accuracy, and in particular, it s accuracy in labeling, dimensions, S O

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E contours, property boundaries, or placement or location of any map features thereon. LOVELAND MAKES NO WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY E VALL U EY S VIEW

N U PPLY RD T LEANNE DR OR WARRANTY FOR FITNESS OF USE FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, WITH RESPECT TO THIS MAP PRODUCT. Any user

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O of this map product accepts same AS IS, WITH ALL FAULTS, and assumes all responsibility for the use thereof, and further covenants and agrees T 1 L

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to hold the City harmless from and against any damage, loss, or liability arising from any use of this map product. Independent verification of all

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Y C data contained herein should be obtained by any user of this map product. The City disclaims, and shall not be held liable for any and all

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T U H C H T damage, loss, or liability, whether direct, indirect, or consequential, which arises or may arise from this map product or the use thereof by any

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P W COUNTY ROAD 14 W COUNTY ROAD 14 42ND ST SW P 42ND ST SE E HIGHWAY 60 SCALE: 1 inch equals 2,000 feet at original scale

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2 Community and Strategic Planning Land Area and Annexations 40 COL Area and Annexations Loveland has plenty of land to 38 accommodate its growing population. Since incorporation, Loveland has 36 expanded through annexation nearly every year. Today, Loveland has grown 34 to 35.63 square miles or 22,850 acres. 32 Ultimately, the land area in which the city will grow will comprise 66 square 30 miles in what is known as the Growth Management Area. 28 Total Ci ty Area (Sq Mi ) The City has seen a lull in annexations 26 over the past few years. However, 24 several large annexations are occurring at the time of this report. 22

20 1995 1997 1999 2001 2002* 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Acres Annexed and City Land Area, 1997 - 2019 Year Net Acres Annexed Total City Area (Acres) Total City Area (Sq. Mi) 1997 139.92 15,296.70 23.9 1998 312.01 15,608.71 24.39 1999 393.29 16,002.00 25 2000 2,290.24 18,292.24 28.58 2001 563.06 18,885.30 29.46 2002 313.72 19,169.02 29.95 2002* -184.80 18,984.22 29.66 2003 621.91 19,606.13 30.63 2004 280.84 19,886.97 31.07 2005 203.35 20,090.32 31.37 2006 869.05 20,959.37 32.75 2007 188.55 21,147.92 33.04 2008 987.31 22,135.23 34.59 2009 189.44 22,324.67 34.88 2010 118.99 22,443.66 35.07 2011 91.51 22,598.40 35.31 2012 60.44 22,658.80 35.40 2013 6.44 22,665.20 35.41 2014 0 22,665.20 35.41 2015 6.4 22,669.90 35.41 2016 83.2 22,748.40 35.54 2017 38.4 22,786.80 35.60 2018 64.13 22,850.93 35.63

Source: City of Loveland GIS Division 2019 0 22,850.93 35.63 *Disconnections per Ord. #4721 and Ord. #4737 reduced totals by 184.80 acres in 2002.

3 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2020 PEOPLE

Left: Annual Corn Population and Housing Estimates and Projections Roast Festival Right: Summer Loveland continues to grow keep up with demand. Concert series at robustly, having added over 6,000 the Foote Lagoon residents since the 2010 Census. To develop population forecasts, it However, based on building permit is assumed that in the short term, data compared with growth rate population growth is dependent on forecasts from the Colorado State housing supply. And in the long term, Demographer’s Office, Loveland is not it is assumed that housing supply will adding enough new housing units to match demand.

140,000 133,006 Population & Housing Estimates 120,000

100,000 2019: 79,150 80,000

60,000 48,273 2019: 40,000 32,942 Housing & Population & HousingEstimate/Projections 20,000

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045

Population Estimate Population Forcast Housing Estimate Housing Forcast *Population Estimates and Projections from COL Building & Strategic Planning 4 Community and Strategic Planning To generate population estimates (2010 – 2018) and near-term forecasts Population Estimates and Projections (2019 – 2021), the number of dwelling units, derived from Building Division Year Population Annual Housing Housing Units records and forecasts, is multiplied Estimate/ Population Units % Change from by 2.32, which is the estimated Projection % Change Previous number of persons per dwelling from Previous unit in Loveland. For the forecasts 2010 67,742 -- 28,583 -- of population in 2022 and beyond, 2011 68,761 1.5% 29,013 1.50% growth rates developed by the State Demographer’s Office (SDO) for 2012 69,341 0.84% 29,258 0.84% the Loveland sub-area are applied. 2013 70,370 1.48% 29,692 1.48% Housing unit estimates (2011 – 2018) 2014 71,027 0.93% 29,969 0.93% and near term forecasts (2019-2021) are from City of Loveland Building 2015 73,420 3.37% 30,979 3.37% Division records and forecasts. Longer 2016 74,385 1.31% 31,524 1.76% term forecasts for population (2022 2017 75,840 1.96% 32,000 1.51% and beyond) are developed by dividing 2018 77,231 1.88% 32,587 1.88% population forecasts by 2.32. 2019 79,150 2.48% 32,942 2.26% Over the past five years, on average, 2020 81,208 2.60% 33,803 1.43% the City has grown at 1.81%, which 2021 83,320 2.60% 34,860 3.13% is well below the forecast from the 2022 85,486 2.60% 35,481 1.78% NFRMPO and closer to that of the 2023 87,709 2.60% 36,095 1.73% SDO. Furthermore, the Northern Front Range Metropolitan Planning 2024 89,989 2.60% 36,706 1.69% Organization (NFRMPO) estimates are 2025 91,969 2.20% 37,314 1.66% becoming outdated. Therefore, for 2026 93,992 2.20% 37,919 1.62% the long-term growth forecasts, we 2027 96,060 2.20% 38,515 1.57% are applying the growth rates from the SDO. This results in significantly 2028 98,173 2.20% 39,080 1.47% less population growth than previous 2029 100,333 2.20% 39,643 1.44% forecasts. 2030 102,199 1.86% 40,201 1.41% 2031 104,100 1.86% 40,755 1.38% As of July 1, 2018 the US Census has Loveland’s population estimated 2032 106,036 1.86% 41,306 1.35% at 77,444. Part of the challenge of 2033 108,009 1.86% 41,851 1.32% this, is it uses dated and incomplete 2034 110,018 1.86% 42,392 1.29% information, whereas, the staff 2035 111,932 1.74% 42,927 1.26% derived number of 79,150 is through December 31, 2019 and is based on 2036 113,880 1.74% 43,458 1.23% detailed housing permit data. 2037 115,861 1.74% 43,984 1.21% 2038 117,877 1.74% 44,505 1.19% Population projections account for 2039 119,928 1.74% 45,023 1.16% staff’s expectation of a recession in 2020 due to softening sales tax 2040 122,015 1.74% 45,557 1.19% revenue and increased building 2041 124,138 1.74% 46,108 1.21% costs. While a market correction was 2042 126,298 1.74% 46,654 1.19% anticipated, the COVID-19 associated 2043 128,496 1.74% 47,197 1.16% economic crisis at the time of this document’s preparation could not 2044 130,731 1.74% 47,737 1.14% have been anticipated and this is not reflected in the projections.

Source: US Census Bureau, City of Loveland Building Division, Colorado State Demographer’s Office, City of Loveland Development Services Dept. 5 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2020 Population Age Distribution As the City has grown, it has become over this 8 year period. older overall. As shown in the figure Generational Breakdown Ages and table below, the number of This gives evidence to Loveland’s Greatest Generation (- 1927) ≥ 92 school-aged children (under 19) fell popularity among baby boomers and Silent Generation (1928-1945) 75 - 92 by 20.4%. At the opposite end of the retirees. Nevertheless, the number of spectrum, the age groups over 65 those between ages 20-34 increased Baby Boomers (1946-1964) 55 - 74 experienced growth rates of nearly by 7.9%, which indicates that the City Gen X (1965-1979) 40 - 54 60% for those aged 65-84 and those is attracting more millennials and Gen Millennial (1980-1999) 19- 39 85 and over. The median age increased Z as well. Gen Z (2000+) ≤ 19 5.8% 35%from 36.0 years to 38.1 years

30%

25%

20%

15% Percentage of Population Percentage 10%

0% 0-19 20-34 35-44 45-64 65-84 85+

Northern Colorado:Loveland Population 2000 LovelandAge Distribution 2018 City 0-19 20-34 35-44 45-64 65-84 85+ Median Male Female Years Years Years Years Years Years Age Loveland 2000 29.5% 18.9% 17.0% 22.1% 10.9% 1.6% 36.0 49.0% 51.0% Loveland 2019 23.5% 20.4% 15.5% 20.8% 17.4% 2.5% 38.1 48.7% 51.3% % Change -20.4% 7.9% -9.1% -5.9% 59.2% 57.3% 5.8% -0.7% 0.6%

Fort Collins 2000 27.5% 32.9% 14.6% 17.1% 6.7% 1.2% 28.2 50.2% 49.8% Fort Collins 2019 22.2% 34.7% 10.9% 20.6% 10.4% 1.2% 30.6 51.2% 48.8% % Change -19.2% 5.4% -25.2% 20.5% 54.7% 0.4% 8.5% 2.0% -2.0%

Greeley 2000 31.9% 27.1% 13.0% 18.0% 8.6% 1.5% 28.5 49.0% 51.0% Greeley 2019 27.7% 25.6% 12.0% 23.1% 10.2% 1.5% 33.1 50.6% 49.4% % Change -13.3% -5.4% -7.9% 28.2% 18.5% -2.7% 16.1% 3.2% -3.1%

Source: 2015-19 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimate 2000 Census 6 Community and Strategic Planning Race, Ethnicity, and Sex The minority population in Loveland Loveland Race, Ethnicity and Sex has increased by approximately 40% since 2000, though the population Race 2000 2019 is still overwhelmingly white, with Persons % Persons % non-white residents making up 8% of Total Population 50,608 100% 78,871* 100% the total population. While persons Male 24,795 49% 37,962 49% identifying as hispanic or latino Female 25,813 51% 39,010 51% make up the largest minority group in Loveland, the African-American White 46,990 93% 73,725 93% population has seen the greatest Black or African American 188 0.4% 492 0.6% increase, growing more than 350% Asian 419 0.8% 1,322 1.6% since 2000. American Indian 349 0.7% 515 0.6%

Some Other Race 2,077 4.1% 988 1.3% Numbers for categories of race and ethnicity do not add up to the total Two or More Races 1,023 2% 2,217 2.8% population figure because Hispanic Hispanic or Latino 4,337 9% 9,496 12% or Latino ethnicity can be a subset of Source: white as well as black races. 2015-2019 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimate 2000 Census

Women make up slightly more than half of the population.

*78,871 is the US Census’ estimated population at the end of 2019. This is their standard number used to derive all other estimates. Households by Type As Loveland has grown, it has become Loveland Households by Type older overall with more single or young As % of total households childless couples. While the number of 2000 2019 households grew 69% since 2000, the Total Households 19,743 33,393 average household size shrank from Families 71% 60.8% 2.55 to 2.35. Meanwhile, the number of households with families decreased with own children under 18 years 35% 22.7% from 71% to 60.8% since 2000. Married-couple Family 58% 49.9% with own children under 18 years 26% 17.1% The percent of households with Female householder, no husband present, family 10% 6.6% children under 18 declined significantly as well. All of these factors with own children under 18 years 7% 3.4% are indicative of an aging population Non-family households 29% 39.1% and, to a lesser extent, young single Householder living alone 22% 28.8% professionals and young to middle 65 years and over 9% 13.9% aged couples with no or few children.

*For the 2015-2019 ACS, this age Households with one or more people under 18 years 37% 22.7% decreased from 65 to 60, so the data Households with one or more people over 60* years 22%* 42.5% for 2000 and 2019 are not entirely comparable. Average Household Size 2.55 2.35 Source: 2015-19 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimate Average family size 3.01 2.95 2000 Census 7 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2020 Residence One Year Ago The American Community Survey asks the past year. Compared to peer questions about whether a person communities, Lovelanders appear moved in the last year (and where) to be more likely to remain in their to create statistics about migration residences for a longer period of patterns. This information is useful time. The colleges in Fort Collins and in planning for the migration in both Greeley may play a role in this by urban and rural areas. In Loveland increasing their transient (i.e. student) roughly eight out of ten people residents. remained in their residence over

Regional Comparision: Resided in Same House Loveland: Residence One Year Ago (2019) Population 1 year and over 76,618 Same house 64,522 84.2% 71% Same county 6,563 8.6% Different County within 2,510 3.3% state 74% 83% Different state 3,023 3.9%

Source: 2015-19 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimate Disability Status The American Community Survey Various types of disabilities require 10% of Lovelanders are actively living considers those with a disability as different and special approaches with a disability. However, one in four having vision, hearing, cognitive, to providing education and other residents over 65 in age are living ambulatory, self-care, or independent accommodations. with a disability, which appears to be living difficulty. generally in line with other Northern Colorado communities.

Regional Comparison: Over 65 years old with a disability Loveland: Disability Status (2019) Total civilian noninstitutional 78,515 100% population 30.6% with a disability 9,128 11.6%

Under 18 years 17,709 37.0% 29.6% with a disability 374 2.1%

Population 65 years and over 15,460 with a disability 4,201 27.2%

Source: 2015-19 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimate 8 Community and Strategic Planning HOUSING

Left: Urban, mixed Housing Tenure use at Gallery Flats Right: The Foundry Housing tenure refers to the status of Greeley. Loveland’s home ownership Redevelopment a home: either as owner-occupied or rates are on par with the national and renter-occupied. Loveland has more statewide rates. homeowners and fewer renters than nearby peer communities, which is Since 2000, the percentage of renters most likely due to the presence of in Loveland has increased, while the large universities in Fort Collins and percentage of owners has decreased.

Owner Occupied Housing 2000 2019 71.4% 63.8%

+7.6% -7.6%

Renter Occupied Housing 2000 2019 28.6% 36.2%

Owner Occupied Renter Occupied 2019 2019 Loveland 63.8% 36.2% Fort Collins 54.8% 45.2% Greeley 57.9% 42.1% Larimer County 65.7% 34.3%

Source: 2015-2019 American Communities Survey 5-Year Estimates 9 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2020 Residential Building Permits Building permits for detached single to steadily increase over the past categories have seen an upward trend family homes have rebounded since couple years. Multi-family permits since 2009, but high construction the Great Recession, though have are often applied for in batches with costs have had an impact on new decreased slighly over the past two individual projects, which explains the single family home construction. years. Construction of attached single year-to-year jumps in permit numbers. Single-family attached and duplex family homes and duplexes continue Both single-family and multi-family construction are also on a steady rise.

800

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SF Attached and Duplex Units 100

0 Single Family Detached SF Attached and Duplex Units Multi-Family Units 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year Single Family Single Family Attached Multi-Family Units Total Detached & Duplex Units 2019 182 55 118 355 2018 180 75 334 589 2017 228 52 246 526 2016 352 40 176 568 2015 454 28 155 637 2014 292 39 486 817 2013 233 25 109 367 2012 243 31 104 378 2011 150 15 28 193 2010 105 24 595 724 2009 66 3 6 75 2008 110 29 87 226 2007 217 64 0 281 2006 370 75 429 874 2005 653 121 118 892 Source: City of Loveland Building Division 10 Community and Strategic Planning Dwelling Units by Type and Year Built Detached single family homes Within a suburban context, Loveland’s housing stock tends to be continue to dominate the market in homeownership is often correlated either older or newer, with 38.6% of Loveland, as larger greenfield and infill with housing structure as the majority homes built before 1980 and 33% built projects for multi-family are becoming of owner-occupied units are single- since 2000. less appealing to the buyer. family houses rather than multifamily buildings, but we do predict a steady multi-family, non ownership housing stock for those who are in the market for a more flexible residence.

Single Family Housing Single Family, Attached Multi-family Loveland: Dwelling Units by Type Units by Dwelling Loveland:

64.2% 8.9% 26.9%

City of Loveland Dwelling Units by Type Existing Construction (built) Units Type 2019 ACS Pre-1940 1940-1959 1960-1979 1980-1999 2000-2009 2010-2013 2014+ Total 100.0% 5.2% 7.1% 26.3% 28.4% 17.2% 3.8% 12.1%

Source: 2015-2019 American Communities Survey 5-Year Estimates; City of Loveland Building Division

11 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2020 Average Home Sale Price Similar to other Northern Colorado $409,236, up 3% from the previous Home prices in the region have communities, Loveland home sale year. This is higher that the average flattened over the past year after prices have continued to steadily rise national home price of $327,100, but several years of nearly double digit over the past several years. In 2019, on par with home prices statewide. growth. the average sale price in Loveland was

$500,000

$450,000

$400,000

$350,000

$300,000

$250,000

$200,000

$150,000 AverageHome Sale Price

$100,000

$50,000

$0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 Loveland/Berthoud Fort Collins/Wellington Greeley/Evans Windsor

Average Home Sales Price Year Loveland/ % Fort Collins/ % Greeley/Evans % Windsor % Berthoud Change Wellington Change Change Change 2019 $409,236 +3 $430,887 +0.5 $302,837 +0.4 $421,117 +0.2 2018 $398,664 +8 $428,709 +6 $301,603 +10 $420,132 +11 2017 $381,079 +11 $397,067 +10 $277,869 +13 $434,242 +3 2016 $351,498 +12 $373,703 +13 $252,966 +11 $390,291 +9 2015 $316,730 +9 $339,763 +8 $224,556 +14 $377,627 +9 2014 $281,405 +5 $300,365 +7 $202,215 +9 $347,384 +6 2013 $258,347 +4 $279,111 +3 $177,192 +14 $318,219 +3 2012 $245,221 +1 $260,654 +1 $161,960 +0 $300,813 -3 2011 $233,552 +2 $253,613 +5 $142,141 +2 $290,769 +5 2010 $231,381 -7 $250,386 -5 $142,299 -8 $299,966 -8 2009 $226,021 -5 239,223 -2 $139,411 -6 $286,160 -4

Source: The Group, Inc Annual Report

12 Community and Strategic Planning Residential Inventory Since the recession, Loveland’s on par with other cities in Northern whereas the number of sales (orange housing market appears to be Colorado. As shown on the chart line) has increased. This suggests tightening. 89% of homes listed in below, the number of listed homes that the rate of demand may be Loveland in 2019 were sold, which is (blue line) has decreased over time, outstripping that of supply.

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500 Numberof HomesListed or Sold 1,000

500

0 Listed Sold 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Year Loveland Fort Collins Greeley Windsor Listed Sold Listed Sold Listed Sold Listed Sold 2019 1,926 1,710 3,166 2,830 2,491 2,235 1,904 1,457 2018 2,608 2,076 4,433 3,642 4,060 3,431 1,904 1,457 2017 2,716 2,275 4,625 3,826 3,851 3,388 1,505 1,007 2016 2,703 2,163 4,374 3,809 4,065 3,462 1,297 1,027 2015 2,690 2,266 4,610 3,841 4,155 3.553 1,093 829 2014 2,347 1,977 4,419 3,816 4,153 3,559 997 787 2013 2,582 2,121 4,528 3,878 3,689 2,997 1,068 819 2012 2,442 1,795 4,176 3,374 3,095 2,389 981 728 2011 2,132 1,443 3,698 2,736 2,910 2,163 869 557 2010 2,565 1,376 4,434 2,783 3,506 2,067 930 501

Source: The Group, Inc. 2019 13 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2020 Apartment Vacancy Rate Northern Colorado communities have Regional Comparison: seen a decrease in apartment vacancy In Loveland, apartment vacancy rates Apartment Vacancy Rates rates since the beginning of 2018, tend to be volatile due to the small however, the impacts of Covid-19 are size of the market; new supply can beginning to appear in the form of greatly increase the vacancy rate. rising vacancy rates. 3.1%

Loveland Fort Collins Greeley Longmont Statewide 4.3% 2Q 20 7.5% 3.1% 4.3% 6.4%* 4.9% 7.5% 1Q 20 5.0% 6.6% 3.6% 11.7%* 5.8% 4Q 19 3.0% 3.6% 3.3% 9.8%* 5.2% 3Q 19 2.7% 2.9% 2.6% 3.7% 4.6% 2Q 19 2.4% 2.1% 2.6% 2.6% 4.9% 1Q 19 3.4% 4.9% 2.5% 3.9% 5.2%

Source: Colorado Division of Housing Multi-family Housing Vacancy and Rental *Increase due to new units coming online

Median Rent Since the 1st quarter of 2015, However, after these significant Loveland’s median rent has increased increases, rent in Northern Colorado by 15.6%, Greeley’s has increased by appears to be stabilizing in recent 36.7%, and Fort Collins’ has increased years. by 20.4%.

Loveland Greeley Fort Collins Longmont 2Q 20 $1,451 $1,195 $1,437 $1,395 1Q 20 $1,473 $1,180 $1,413 $1,409 4Q 19 $1,397 $1,188 $1,371 $1,402 3Q 19 $1,409 $1,223 $1,401 $1,418 2Q 19 $1,426 $1,211 $1,413 $1.404 1Q 19 $1,396 $1,181 $1,366 $1,331

Source: Colorado Division of Housing Multi-family Housing Vacancy and Rental

14 Community and Strategic Planning Economy

Left and Right: Commercial Vacancy Rates Sundial at Mehaffey Park & Great Loveland’s vacancy rate for office The overall percentage of vacant space Western Sugar space decreased, while industrial is higher in Loveland when compared Factory space decreased dramatically, and to nearby peer communities, though retail vacancies increased slightly. disparities among communities have leveled out.

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

0% Greeley Greeley Greeley Greeley Greeley Loveland Loveland Loveland Loveland Loveland Longmont Fort Collins Fort Collins Fort Collins Fort Collins Fort Collins Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Industrial Retail Office Loveland Fort Collins Greeley 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 Industrial 14% 4% 3% 2% 5% 3% Retail 3% 4% 4% 5% 3% 3% Office 9% 7% 6% 3% 3% 3%

Source: Sperry Van Ness & Group Real Estate Inc.

15 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2020 Commuting Mode (mode split) While those taking public while using other modes such as expected to increase more for 2020 as transportation increased by 600% bicycles more than tripled, though a result of COVID-19. since 2000, the total number of transit this still represents a small number riders is very low compared to the of commuters. There has also overall working population. been a substantial increase in the The percentage of people driving proportion of Loveland workers who to work alone decreased slightly, telecommute, and this number is

Loveland Commuters Percent Workers 16 & Over 2000 2019 Drove Alone- Car, truck, or van 82.5% 80.2% Carpooled- Car, truck, or van 10.8% 5.4% Public Transportation 0.1% 0.7% Walked 1.6% 1.5% Other Means 1.0% 4.3% Worked at Home 4.0% 7.8% Mean travel time to work (minutes) -- 25.5

Source: 2000 Census 2015-2019 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

16 Community and Strategic Planning Household Income City and County Household Income in 2019 Since 2000, the median income of More than $200,000 Lovelanders has grown by nearly $8,500, pulled up by significant growth $150,000 to $199,999 in income brackets over $100,000. $100,000 to $149,999 Considering that the earnings tend $75,000 to $99,999 to peak around the age of 55, the $50,000 to $74,999 growth in higher income households $35,000 to $49,999 mirrors the growth in baby boomers. In addition, the number of people $25,000 to $34,999 in lower-income households also $15,000 to $24,999 decreased, particularly those earning $10,000 to $14,999 less than $35,000. Less than $10,000 Larimer County Loveland 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Median Household Income Loveland Larimer County

2000 2019 2000 2019 $47,119 $71,740 $48,655 $75,186

Total Family Loveland Larimer County Household Income 2000 2019 2000 2019 Total Households 19,855 33,393 97,128 5% Less than $10,000 5% 5% 6% 3% $10,000 to $14,999 6% 3% 5% 7% $15,000 to $24,999 12% 8% 11% 6% $25,000 to $34,999 13% 6% 12% 10% $35,000 to $49,999 17% 10% 17% 18% $50,000 to $74,999 25% 19% 22% 14% $75,000 to $99,999 12% 21% 13% 17% $100,000 to $149,000 8% 17% 9% 10% $150,000 to $199,999 2% 7% 3% 10% More than $200,000 1% 4% 2% 7% Median household income $47,119 $64,209 $48,655 $67,664 Mean household income -- $80,552 -- $88,703

Source: 2014-2018 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

17 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2020 Median Family Income The Median Family Income for the Loveland/Fort Collins Metropolitan Service Area (MSA) is above the statewide income of $73,900. The Median Family Income for the MSA has increased to $85,100.

Median Family Income, which differs Number of Median Low Income Very Low Extremely Low from Median Household Income, is Persons per Family (80% AMI) Income (50% Income (30% used for income qualifying projects Household Income AMI) AMI) such as housing and public assistance. 1 $48,850 $30,550 $18,350 How they differ: A household consists 2 $55,800 $34,900 $20,950 of all people who occupy a housing 3 $62,800 $39,250 $23,550 unit regardless of relationship. A household may consist of a person 4 $69,750 $43,600 $26,150 $87,200 living alone or multiple unrelated 5 $75,350 $47,100 $30,170 individuals or families living together. 6 $80,950 $50,600 $34,590 Median family income is typically higher than median household 7 $86,500 $54,100 $39,010 income because of the composition of 8 $92,100 $57,600 $43,430 households.

Source: 2019 HUD Income Guidelines, Fort Collins/Loveland MSA

Educational Attainment Number Percentage Within Loveland in 2019, the Population over 25 years 54,138 overwhelming majority (94.6%) of adults were at least high school No diploma (9th to 12th grade) 2,473 4.4% graduates or higher and more than High school graduate (includes equivalency) 13,105 23.5% one in three (38.4%) reported having Some college, no degree 12,574 22.5% a bachelor’s degree or higher. A report by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2019 Associate’s degree 5,687 10.2% found that 88.6% of adults nationwide Bachelor’s degree 14,665 26.3% have a high school diploma and Graduate or professional degree 6,807 12.2% 33.1% reported a bachelor’s or higher degree, which means that Loveland has a more educated population than High school graduate or higher 52,838 94.6% the national average. Bachelor’s degree or higher 21,472 38.4%

Source: 2015-19 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimate

18 Community and Strategic Planning Consumer Price Index 300 CPI Change 266.99 The Denver-Boulder-Greeley Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a 250 benchmark for inflation and deflation, generally calculated by monitoring the 200 average cost increase for a number of goods. 150

Since 2007, the CPI has steadily CPIValue increased to its current value of 100 266.99, an increase of 30%. 50 For future reference, the index will be changing to the Denver -Aurora- 0 Lakewood CPI. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CPI Value 208.5 212.5 220.3 224.6 231.1 237.2 240 246.63 255.00 261.958 269.99 % Change -0.60% 1.90% 3.70% 1.90% 2.80% 2.70% 1.20% 2.77% 3.28% 2.66% 1.92%

Base Year: 1982 Source: Colorado Legislative Council

12% Labor Force & Unemployment Unemployment Rate Rate The table below shows preliminary 10% estimated labor force, employment and unemployment information as of May 2020. These figures are 8% seasonally adjusted. The Covid-19 pandemic has had a marked impact on 6% unemployment rates in Loveland and the nation as a whole. As of April 2020

the Fort Collins-Loveland MSA had an UnemploymentRate 4% unemployment rate of 8.6%.

Civilian Labor Force and Unemployment Rates April 2020 (Seasonally Adjusted) Labor Force Number Employed Number Unemployed Unemployment Rate City of Loveland Colorado 3,063,170 2,750,744 312,426 10.20%

Source: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment United States Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2020 Employees by Industry Type The table below shows the top 10 industries with the highest annual percent change in Fort Collins- Loveland MSA for the 2018- 2028 time period. Employees by Industry Type, Fort Collins-Loveland MSA Industry 2019 Est.Employment 2029 Projected Employment Annual % Change Health Care and Social Assistance ‌23,405 27,959 1.79% Retail Trade ‌19,370 19,905 0.27% Accomodation and Food Services ‌19,232 22,210 1.45% Educational Services ‌18,721 21,839 1.55% Manufacturing ‌14,640 14,859 0.15% Professional, Scientific, and ‌10,806 11,977 1.03% Technical Services

Construction ‌11,237 12,606 1.16%

Local Government ‌7,049 7,747 0.95% Other Services (except Public ‌6,914 7,387 0.66% Administration) Wholesale Trade ‌5,173 5,707 1% Finance and Insurance ‌3,527 3,701 0.48% Transportation and Warehousing ‌3,051 3,410 1.12% Information ‌3,340 3,512 0.50% Real Estate and Rental and ‌3,402 3,785 1.07% Leasing Arts, Entertainment, and ‌2,874 2,991 0.40% Recreation Federal Government ‌2,505 2,559 0.21%

Source: Colorado Department of Labor, Labor Market Information

Loveland’s Largest Employers Employer Total Employees The table to the right lists the top Thompson School District 2500+ 10 employers in Loveland through Medical Center of the Rockies 1000-1500 2019. The largest employers are in education, health care and local City of Loveland 1000-1500 government. McKee Medical Center 500-999 Hach 500-999 Wal-Mart Distribution Center 500-999 Nutrien 500-999 UC Health - Urgent Care 100-499 Aerotek 100-499

Constant Contact 100-499

Source: City of Loveland, sourced from State Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Report & Economic Development Department

20 Community and Strategic Planning Sales Tax Rates

Sales and Use Tax The overall sales tax rate in Loveland Sales Tax Rates is 6.45% for all locations that are not located in the Promenade Shops at Centerra, Centerra Metropolitan District or the Centerra Motorplex. In State of Colorado City of Loveland those locations the sales tax is 8.3%. 2.90% 3.00% The State of Colorado exempts machinery and equipment purchases used in manufacturing from the state State of Colorado City of Loveland 2.90% 3.00% 2.9% sales/use tax.

Loveland does not collect use tax on personal property, however, it does collect 3.0% on vehicles and building Larimer County materials. 0.65% Larimer County City-wide0.65% Mill Levies

City of Loveland Larimer County State of Colorado City of Loveland Larimer County State of Colorado

Property Tax City of Loveland Commercial and industrial properties City-wide Mill Levies9.564, 13% are assessed at 29.0% and residential properties at 7.2% of their market value. The result is for properties of equal value, a business pays over City of Loveland three times as much property tax as a 9.564, 13% residence.

The 2019 mill levy rate, which funds School District Larimer County the 2020 budget, will remain at the 40.416, 54% 22.424, 30% 2014 level, 9.564 mills. The City’s levy has been 9.564 since 1992 School District Larimer County 40.416, 54% 22.424, 30% and Loveland continues to have one of the lowest city government property tax levies in northern Colorado. On average, the City collects 97.5% of the total tax levy.

Special Districts A number of special districts also 2.661Special, 3% Districts overlap portions of the City’s 2.661, 3% City of Loveland Larimer County Special Districts School District boundaries and affect some properties. Loveland’s City government City of Loveland Larimer County Special Districts School District sets only the City mill levy and has no control over mill levies set by other entities.

Source: City of Loveland Budget Division, State of Colorado 21 Annual Data and Assumptions Report 2020 Sales and Use Tax Rate Centerra Fee District Food and Home Consumption Tax Rate The City of Loveland’s sales and use tax Businesses located in the Centerra Fee The City of Loveland’s food for home rates are both 3.0%. districts sales tax rate is 1.75% and consumption tax rate is 3.0%. is in addition to the district fees. The district also includes a 1.25% PIF and a 1% Retail Sales Fee.

Personal Income Tax Corporate Income Tax County and State Tax

The State of Colorado Personal Income Colorado’s corporate income tax Larimer County has a tax rate of 0.65% Tax rate is 4.63% of federal taxable is a flat 4.63% of Colorado net while the State of Colorado has a tax income. income, defined as the corporation’s rate of 2.9%. federal taxable income with some modifications.

Source: City of Loveland Budget Division, State of Colorado

22 Community and Strategic Planning