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Task 2: Report on the Costs of the Hot Summer of 2003

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Task 2: Report on the Costs of the Hot Summer of 2003 - TASK 2: REPORT ON THE COSTS OF THE HOT SUMMER OF 2003 - Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Cross-Regional Research Programme Project E – Quantify the cost of impacts and adaptation Final Report Prepared for: DEFRA Prepared by: Metroeconomica Limited (UK) This report has been prepared by Metroeconomica Limited, Bath in conjunction with consortium partners. Please contact Alistair Hunt, Metroeconomica on 01225 383244 or by email on [email protected] for further details . Authors Metroeconomica Alistair Hunt Richard Boyd Tim Taylor London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (Health) Sari Kovats Kate Lachowyz AEA Technology (Transport) Paul Watkiss Lisa Horrocks Project E – Quantify the cost of impacts and adaptation Defra Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................3 2 CHARACTERISATION OF THE SUMMER 2003 WEATHER EVENT IN THE UK AND EUROPE .......................................................................................5 2.1 ANNEX 2A: METEOROLOGICAL DATA FOR 2003...................................................8 3 HEALTH .................................................................................................................13 3.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................13 3.2 METHOD FOR QUANTIFYING MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY IMPACTS OF THE SUMMER 2003 HOT WEATHER EVENT ..................................................................13 3.3 RESULTS FOR QUANTIFICATION OF MORTALITY ..................................................14 3.4 RESULTS FOR QUANTIFICATION OF MORBIDITY ...................................................16 3.5 RESULTS FOR MONETISATION OF HEALTH IMPACTS ...........................................17 3.6 DISCUSSION .........................................................................................................20 4 ENERGY SECTOR................................................................................................21 4.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................21 4.2 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................21 4.3 RESULTS .............................................................................................................26 4.4 DISCUSSION .........................................................................................................30 5 AGRICULTURE.....................................................................................................32 5.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................32 5.2 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................32 5.3 RESULTS .............................................................................................................37 5.4 DISCUSSION .........................................................................................................39 5.5 ANNEX 5A: UK PRODUCTION AND YIELDS (1984-2004)....................................41 6 RETAILING............................................................................................................43 6.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................43 6.2 TOP -DOWN EVIDENCE .........................................................................................44 6.3 BOTTOM -UP EVIDENCE ........................................................................................47 6.4 CONCLUSIONS .....................................................................................................48 6.5 RETAILING : ANNEX 6A .......................................................................................50 7 TRANSPORT..........................................................................................................52 7.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................52 7.2 RAIL ....................................................................................................................53 7.3 ROAD ..................................................................................................................60 7.4 LONDON UNDERGROUND ....................................................................................62 7.5 AVIATION ............................................................................................................63 7.6 CYCLING AND MOTORCYCLES ............................................................................64 7.7 ADAPTATION .......................................................................................................64 7.8 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS .........................................................................65 Metroeconomica Limited i Project E – Quantify the cost of impacts and adaptation Defra 8 WATER RESOURCES..........................................................................................67 8.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................67 8.2 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................67 9 TOURISM ...............................................................................................................70 9.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................70 9.2 PREVIOUS WORK .................................................................................................70 9.3 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................70 9.4 VALUATION OF IMPACTS .....................................................................................80 9.5 RESULTS .............................................................................................................80 9.6 DISCUSSION .........................................................................................................81 10 BUILT ENVIRONMENT ....................................................................................82 10.1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................82 10.2 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................82 10.3 RESULTS ...........................................................................................................85 10.4 DISCUSSION .......................................................................................................87 11 CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................88 12 REFERENCES......................................................................................................90 Metroeconomica Limited ii PROJECT E: Quantifying the cost of impacts and adaptation: Summer 2003 1 INTRODUCTION The objective of this task is to estimate the impacts of the Summer 2003 weather event in the UK in monetary terms. Its purpose is four-fold. First, as an example of an extreme weather event 1 that is thought likely to become more common under climate change scenarios, this event provides a valuable source of empirical information on potential climate change impacts. Second, since the event is very recent, it is remembered by the wide stakeholder community - including the general public - and any analysis of its impacts serves to act as a well-understood historical analogue of a climate change-related event. Third, the event allows us the opportunity to identify the extent to which proactive and reactive adaptation to mitigate the full impacts of the event existed, and hence what lessons there may be for climate change adaptation policy. Fourth, the task serves as an illustration of the methodological and empirical issues associated with monetised impact analysis of climate change-related events. The impacts of the Summer 2003 hot weather event are reported here on a sectoral basis. Sectoral coverage includes: Health; Transport; Agriculture; Water Resources and Water Quality; Built Environment; Tourism; Retailing and Manufacturing, and Energy. These sectors were selected on the basis that they cover the main impacts of the event that have been identified. The focus of the analysis is on those impacts that can be quantified and monetised. Therefore, this report should not be seen as an attempt to provide comprehensive coverage of impacts. There will – for example – be many impacts that are significant in terms of their effects on welfare and yet are not addressed here due to our having to limit ourselves to those impacts that are quantifiable. This sectoral approach is in line with that adopted by a previous study focused on a summer weather event – Economic Impacts of the Hot Summer and Unusually Warm Year of 1995 , (eds. Palutikof, Subak and Agnew, 1997) – and produced for Defra, then Department of the Environment. The Palutikof et. al. study was undertaken with substantially more resources than the present study; our study therefore aims not to replicate the methods or results of this study but to complement it by revisiting certain impacts, expanding the analysis where data now allows, and adding further robustness to the strength
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