This Commodity Focus is excerpted from the November 2019 edition of the FAO Food Outlook, published here: http://www.fao.org/3/ca6911en/ca6911en.pdf

FOCUS COMMODITY Commodity Focus 13 Given 4 In addition, 6 FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2019 This fourth race of the fungus poses 5 The current strain of the Wilt strain of the Banana The current disease, FAO (2019) FAO (2019) FAO Ploetz (2005) particularly elevated risks to global banana supplies, as it variety of banana and plantain a much broader can affect strains of Fusarium wilt. than previous 4 5 6 amounted to a current equivalent of USD 2.3 billion. equivalent amounted to a current TROPICAL RACE 4 – A RENEWED SUPPLY CHALLENGE TO GLOBAL BANANA the decades-long persistence of the Fusarium wilt fungus the decades-long persistence of the Fusarium in the soil, Gros Michel continue to be practically to this day. world export markets absent from described as Tropical Race 4 (TR4), was first discovered Race 4 (TR4), was first discovered described as Tropical and in 1970 in plantations in Taiwan, scale in Cavendish plantations in severe then on a more the early 2000s, and in 1992/93. By Papua New Guinea, to Australia, TR4 had spread on and the . In 2013, TR4 was discovered and in farms in northern Mozambique and in Jordan, and Pakistan. 2015 it emerged in Lebanon, Oman, in Laos, VietBetween 2017 and 2019, TR4 was found 2019, the fungus Nam, Myanmar and Thailand. In August was detected for the first time on a in of La Guajira, , in the northeastern region information, TR4 is currently to official . According in South and confirmed in 17 countries, predominantly . there is currently no effective fungicide or other eradication no effective is currently there method that is capable of eliminating TR4. In affected plants, the disease can quickly cause a total yield loss. Due to the longevity of the fungus in the soil, infected land becomes unavailable for banana or any other cultivation to new, in a shift of production for decades, resulting

1 The first large-scale outbreak in export The first large-scale outbreak 3

2

The Fusarium wilt disease of banana, scientifically The Fusarium wilt disease of banana, scientifically Diemuth Pemsl, Dr Lorna Herradura, Dr Randy Ploetz, Dr Tony Pattison and Dr Diemuth Pemsl, Dr Lorna Dr Randy Ploetz, Dr Tony Herradura, of the disease. spread Vicente for their expert inputs on the probable Luis Pérez May et al. (1958) et al. (2015) Ordonez The author extends sincere thanks to Dr Charles Staver, Dr Altus Viljoen, Dr thanks to Dr Charles Staver, The author extends sincere 2 3 1 cubense denominated as f. sp. destructive of all plant among the most and considered plantations in diseases, was first detected in banana Australia in 1876. plantations was subsequently reported in 1890 in Panama. plantations was subsequently reported A soil-borne of pathogen, the mycelium and spores infected plants and planting through: Fusarium wilt spread materials; soil particles attached to shoes, vehicles and including irrigation, drainage and floods; as tools; water, Facilitated by the well as other physical means of spread. and intensive plantation cultivation techniques of the commercial and concentrated transport routes by the mid-1950s, this first strain (Race , 1) of Fusarium wilt had caused such enormous damage of Gros Michel that the export industry to the production to the Fusarium production to switch its entire was forced suggest that data Official Cavendish variety. wilt-resistant total losses to trade in Gros Michel bananas at the time Commercial banana production has been subject to has been banana production Commercial late nineteenth techniques since the with the emergence of large-scale trade from century, producing Central American and banana cater for To countries to the United States and Europe. import demand in mostly far distant rapidly growing the Gros Michel variety as identified markets, producers and long propagation the most suitable for monoculture global export volume of By 1955, the transport routes. had reached producers Central American bananas from making bananas the 3 million tonnes, approximately – ahead of citrus fruits fruit globally most exported fresh in world of 40 percent and apples – at a volume share fruit trade. fresh [email protected] Sabine Altendorf The recent spread and potential future impact of the disease on global impact of the potential future and spread The recent banana trade A mounting threat to global banana markets? banana to global threat A mounting Banana Fusarium Wilt Tropical Race 4: Race Tropical Wilt Fusarium Banana Commodity Focus 14 the diseasethatfarmwasforced toceaseoperations. 1,500-ha plantationwithin4yearsofthefirstdetection in Mozambique,TR4causedsuchsevere damagetothe ha) inthePhilippines, hectares (ha)ofbananaplantations(outatotal440000 indicate thatthediseasehasaffected around 15700 no globalestimatesare available,figures forsomecountries further impedingrapidcontainmentofthedisease.While reporting andwithoutbeingadequatelyquarantined, of diseasemanagement,farmsare abandonedwithout caused byTR4isoftenunavailable.Intheworstcases precise andcompletedocumentationofthedamage particularly important. prevention, rapidcontainmentandquarantineare yield lossesandincreased production costs.Inthisregard, means tosustainoperationsinthefaceofsimultaneous producers inaffected regions, whooftenlackthefinancial particular threat tothelivelihoodsofsmallholderbanana has proved extremely challengingandcostly. Thisposesa a farmhasbeencontaminated,managingthedisease scarcity ofpathogen-free soils.Inallreported cases,once severity ofthespread, outbreaks canresult inanincreasing unaffected landastheonlyrecourse. Dependingonthe 10 9 8 7 Michel bananas. strain ofFusariumwiltthataffected theproduction ofGros will eventuallycauseevengreater lossesthantheoriginal Cavendish bananasforsmallholders,itispossiblethatTR4 value ofproduction forexport andtheimportanceof industry expertsbelievethat,giventhecurrent annual disease-related coststoproducers are available.However, export industry. To date,fewestimatesoftheadditional in Asia,hascausedconsiderablealarmthebanana and theCaribbean,aswellitsenduringoccurrence world’s mostsignificantnetexporting region, LatinAmerica The veryrecent discoveryofFusariumwiltTR4inthe PRICES BY2028? TR4 –SUPPLY SHORTAGES ANDHIGHER BANANA MARKETSINTHEPRESENCEOF and USD14millioninMalaysia. USD 121millioninIndonesia,253Taiwan economic lossescausedbyTR4havebeenestimatedat in China’s GuangdongandHainanprovinces. Aquinoetal.(2013) Chenetal.(2013) MindanaoAgriculture, TheSouthern AquaticandNaturalResources Research Altus Viljoen, StellenboschUniversity, AltusViljoen, SouthAfrica and DevelopmentConsortium,asquoted byFreshplaza, 10March 2016. Given theseriousimplicationsforinfectedfarms, NOVEMBER 2019 FOOD OUTLOOK 7 andsome70percent ofplantations 9 Ontheinfectedfarm 8 Annual 10

OECD-FAO AgriculturalOutlookpublishedinJuly2019. and demographicprojections followthoseoutlinedinthe theglobaleconomic assumptions ofthemodelconcerning commodities onanannualbasis.Theunderlying ten-year projections forglobaltemperateagricultural simulation model(COSIMO),whichisusedtogenerate supply, demand,tradeandpricesofFAO’s commodity was used.Themodeladoptsthebasicspecificationsfor bananamarkets model coveringnationalandinternational banana markets,apartialequilibriumcommoditymarket lead tohigherpricesandlarger economiclossestoeither uncontained spread ofTR4infragmentedmarketswould modelspecifications.Forexample,an those ofalternative conclusions reached bythe analysisare consistentwith dominant bananacorporations.However, thefundamental fragmentation andoligopolisticbehaviourbylarge, of globalbananamarkets,whichmaydisplayregional the modeldeviatessomewhatfrom theobservedreality homogenous worldmarketsforbananas.Inthisregard, on thestylizedassumptionsofperfectcompetitionand Citrus Canker. Theresults ofthemodelare contingent for alarge-countryexporterappliedtothecaseof economic consequencesofaninvasivespeciesoutbreak et al.(2005),whoconductedanevaluationofthe was adaptedfrom asimilarapproach usedbyAcquaye country partialequilibriummodel.Thescenarioanalysis banana marketsisastandard multi-commodity, multi- the assessmentofpossibleimpactsTR4onglobal forecast toreach nearsaturationlevels. developed countryimportmarkets,where consumptionis of 1percent peryearduetoslowingdemandinlarge trade inbananasisprojected togrow atamoderate rate reach approximately 135milliontonnesin2028.Global annual rateof1.5percent overtheten-yearperiod,to projections, globalbananaproduction willgrow atan the prevalence ofcrop diseases.Underthebaseline no changesinpolicy, andinparticularnochanges as-usual’ assumptions,foreseeing normalweather, produced inMay2019.Thesewere basedon‘business- comparison withthebaselineprojections, whichwere ten years,from 2019to2028,enableadirect informing policydecisions. as actualforecasts, butratherasanindicativebasisfor predictive impactresults, whichshouldnotbeinterpreted market impactofTR4provides suggestiveratherthan The scenariopresented herein regarding thehypothetical 11 www.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2019-en To assessthepotentialfuture impactsofTR4onglobal As mentionedabove,theframeworkunderpinning The timespanforthesimulationanalysiscovers 11 Commodity Focus 15 FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2019 Bananas play a similarly important role in developed role a similarly important Bananas play Latin America and the Caribbean ranks as the Globally, Given the popularity of bananas in import markets, country importing markets, where they have ranked they have ranked where country importing markets, fruits for decades. This is among the most consumed global in the noticeable performance of the reflected an unprecedented which reached banana export market, the data for in 2018. Preliminary 19.2 million tonnes that global trade in bananas first half of 2019 suggest period over the same 11 percent expanded by a further in developed Ample import demand year. of the previous growth yield-driven supply with strong markets, combined been the principal in the leading exporting countries, have factors behind this increase. accounting for nearly largest banana exporting region, has been positioned of world exports. 80 percent leading exporter over the past several as the world’s 6 million tonnes to decades, supplying an average of 5 to In 2018, Colombia ranked as the world markets per year. total volume of fourth leading exporter globally with a 9 percent 1.7 million tonnes, equivalent to approximately supplier of global exports. Asia, the second largest of bananas for export, accounted for approximately in 2018, almost entirely of global shipments 20 percent exporter in supplied by the Philippines, the dominant importers, the European In terms of leading the region. respectively, Union and the United States absorbed, of total global and 26 percent 32 percent approximately China and supplies in 2018. The Russian Federation, also significant importers, albeit with single- Japan are in 2018. digit market shares their global value chains have been characterized by intense competition between market actors all the way pressure level. This has exerted downward to the retail prices in producer on prices at each stage, which resulted remaining displaying little fluctuation and, by and large, at very low levels. Combined with rising production hinder margins greatly costs, low prices and tight profit of banana workers and the adequate remuneration smallholder farmers and act as a major obstacle for in coping with emerging challenges, in producers of TR4. particular the looming threat 4 The main driver 2 It is further estimated that 3 In tandem with the increase in the world In tandem with the increase 1 http://www.bananalink.org.uk/all-about-bananas ananas represent one of the most consumed and most consumed and one of the ananas represent countries, In many developing traded fruits globally. their subcultivar plantains, bananas, along with In addition, bananas have particular significance in Bioversity (2012) (2019) FAO

FAOSTAT Bananalink, population to more than 7 billion people, global banana population to more 21 million tonnes in 1961 expanded from production tonnes in 2017. According 114 million to approximately 100 billion bananas are than to some estimates, more now consumed worldwide each year. some of the least developed and low-income food‑deficit they contribute not only to household countries, where food security as a staple, but also to income and At farmgate prices employment generation as a cash crop. USD 300-400 per tonne and typical smallholder of around bananas can generate yields of 10-15 tonnes per hectare, per year. an estimated USD 3 000 to 6 000 per hectare countries conducted in 10 banana producing Research banana farming can account from that revenue revealed of total monthly household income for some 75 percent for smallholder farmers. of this rapid rise in production has been the increasing has been the increasing of this rapid rise in production populations in of the growing consumption requirements production developing countries. The bulk of the global countries who producing has taken place in top increase as , the Philippines also top consumers, such are India and China. The total value of and, in particular, estimated USD 38.5 billion stood at an global production in 2016. for bananas and USD 6.6 billion for plantains approximately 400 million workers rely on income from on income from 400 million workers rely approximately employment in the banana industry globally. direct 4 1 2 3 Box: Bananas in food security and world markets and in food security Bananas Box: B serve as a staple food that is included in many forms in serve as a staple food remain statistics on consumption local diets. While precise informality of subsistence cultivation sketchy due to the have the highest Filipinos reportedly in many regions, of dessert bananas at around per capita consumption a followed by Brazilians who consume 60 kg per year, In some African countries, such slightly lower amount. of all as Angola and Rwanda, per capita consumption exceeds dessert and types combined of these Particularly in the rural areas 200 kg per year. of daily up to 25 percent countries, bananas can provide calorie intake. Commodity Focus 16 13 12 other factors. geographical,phytosanitary,as internal transportand Cavendish monoculture inaproducing country, aswell probability ofinfectionthathingesontheprevalence of and lossscenarios,whichare constructedfrom abase by Scheerer etal.(2018).Thepaperpresents twospread countries, whichare provided inaCGIARworkingpaper rates andlossesinharvestedarea inkeybananaproducing from marketsthatare shortinsupply. increases, asoligopolisticbehaviourwouldextractrents of perfectcompetitionwouldleadtolargerworldprice and tradingcountries.Similarly, relaxing theassumption producers orconsumersintherespective regional producing Philippines, Pakistan and Viet Nam, as wellMozambique Philippines, PakistanandViet affect keyproducers inAsia,mostnotablyChina,the al. (2018)determinethatthehighestratesofspread will to totalFAOSTAT bananaproduction data. cultivars specifiedinthepaperwere calculatedandapplied of theCavendish, provided. spread Weighted rates averagesoftheinternal infection foreachofthecountrieswhichestimatesare loss totheproduction ofbananasin2028duetoTR4 countries. in incomeandforeign exchangegenerationforexporting predominant inglobaltradeandplaysasignificant role economic impactontheCavendishvarietyonly, whichis presented inthisassessmentencompassesthepossible can affect abroad varietyofbananacultivars,theanalysis scenario wouldbeamplified.Furthermore, althoughTR4 impacts overaperiodbeyondthetenyearschosenforthis TR4 tobeincreasing overtime,indicatingthatthedisease spreadestimated internal ratesshowthearea lossesdueto of 25percent everyfiveyears.Itshouldbenotedthatthe chosen, whichanticipatesincremental increases inlosses lower lossscenariopresented byScheerer etal.(2018)was spreadthe estimatedinternal andimpactonarea inthe year timeintervalsupto25years.Forthecurrent study, diseasespreadinternal atarateof50percent infive- ForthecaseofIndia,Scheerer etal.(2018)assumeanarrivalofTR4inthe AsScheerer etal.(2018)explain,factorslinkedtothetimelagforTR4 production area lostduetoTR4inthefirsttenyearsasotherwiseadaptedfrom has beenpresent inIndiasince2015.Intheabsenceofestimates forthe country aftertenyears.However, official informationspecifiesthat TR4 was usedtoestimatebananaproduction area lossbycountry. policy. Thesetwoelementswere thencombinedinanaggregated score that bananas; andtheimportanceofbananaforresearch investmentandpublic three quarantinemeasures; factors:qualityofinternal importanceofCavendish where TR4iscurrently present. spread Therateofinternal wasratedbasedon plantquarantinemeasures;and internal andland and otherlinkstocountries in thecountry;globalbananatraffic toandfrom acountry;qualityofborders reach acountryincludetheimportanceofmono-cropped Cavendishbananas The scenarioisfurtherbasedonpotentialTR4spread Figure 1showstheexpectedpercentage ofarea NOVEMBER 2019 FOOD OUTLOOK 12 Thehighspread scenarioassumesan AAA, OtherandEAH 13

Scheerer AAA banana et et

modified to reflect realisticestimatesofthesecosts. more informationbecomesavailable,thescenariocanbe expenses arisingfrom TR4adaptationandmitigation.As not beenadjustedtoreflect thenumerous additional costs forbothaffected andunaffected countrieshave of TR4.Assuch,inthecurrent scenario,production pinpoint theprecise costsofcontainmentandprevention unmanageable factors.Similarly, ithasproved difficult to spread mayhingeonmanyunpredictable andvirtually moreover, highlyspeculative,giventhatanyhypothetical and theCaribbeanwouldatthisstagebedifficult and, that assigningarateofspread withinLatinAmerica pathologists andbananaexpertspointedtotheconclusion Information gathered bytheauthorfrom leadingplant regarding thepotentialarrivalofTR4inthosecountries. was basedontheabsenceofsoundscientificassessments spread ofTR4outsidetheboundariesColombia.This and Panama,thecurrent scenariodoesnotincludea contamination byTR4,mostnotablyEcuador, Peru,Brazil key bananaproducing countriesare atelevatedriskof banana area in Colombiaby2028.Althoughneighbouring infection wasassumedtoamount1.25percent of plant quarantinecapabilities,thearea lossduetoTR4 producers, whichresults mainlyfrom theirsuperiorinternal rate identifiedforLatinAmericanandCaribbeanbanana spreadyears. Consideringthelowscore fortheinternal et al.assumedaTR4arrivaltimeinColombiaafterten and Tanzania inAfrica.Atthetimeofwriting,Scheerer 14 Adaptedfrom Scheerer etal.,(2018) as indicativeofapotentialspread ofTR4inIndia. 2.5 percent oftotalarea asindicatedinFigure 2ofthesame paperwaschosen Table 7inScheerer etal.(2018),amoderatespread ratearrivingatalossof wilt TR4at25percentspread internal rate Figure 1.Area lossafter10yearsduetoFusarium ct ossititotot uudi

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Commodity Focus 17

si od FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2019 idd st d ot ic t oi ic ti mic d t Ci od In terms of global exports, the shortage in supplies Globally, producer receipts would increase on account would increase receipts producer Globally, C om si i tousd tos by region by 2028 by region Figure 3. Scenario impact on banana production Figure

from Asia would, to some extent, be offset by increased by increased Asia would, to some extent, be offset from 4). Latin America and the Caribbean (Figure exports from with the baseline scenario, Asia would export Compared 880 000 tonnes less per year by 2028, while the Latin would see its exports rise America and Caribbean region its further strengthening by 1.5 million tonnes, thereby dominance in world markets. On a net trade basis, i.e. exports, Asia would incur when subtracting imports from 2 million tonnes per year by 2028 losses of approximately a stimulus to increase their production, thereby partially partially thereby their production, to increase a stimulus the in Asia. Accordingly, incurred the losses offsetting which is assumed to region, and Caribbean Latin America simulation, TR4 in the current by mostly unaffected remain tonnes of bananas million more 1.2 to produce is projected in baseline scenario. Small increases in 2028 than in the expected for banana also over the baseline are production – notably country producers cultivation in the developed in the Near Union and South Africa – and in the European by unaffected to remain similarly assumed East, which are TR4. lower than offsetting prices, more of significantly higher countries would gain in unaffected Producers production. those in the considerably under this scenario, particularly countries. highly exporting Latin American and Caribbean by TR4, banana producers in countries affected However, particularly would incur considerable losses. This would Indonesia, Pakistan, the in China, apply to producers future Philippines, VietNam and Mozambique, where assumed to be greatest, losses are and production area incomes and translating into significant losses of gross countries. employment in the banana sector in these

od td od Compared with Compared 15 od oductio od od ic od Looking at the potential impact on banana production Looking at the potential impact on banana production For the current scenario, the banana area response response the banana area scenario, For the current Figure 2. Scenario impact on production, price 2. Scenario impact on production, Figure and trade in the global banana market ct c om si spread, which may be more reflective of the actual disease spread, facilitates of the actual disease spread, reflective which may be more spread, et al. (2018). by Scheerer losses after ten years as provided area the projected The implementation of a linearly increasing rather than exponential disease The implementation of a linearly increasing

by region, given the sizeable projected area losses in several area given the sizeable projected by region, 3), aggregate Asian and Southeast Asian countries (Figure in Asia, amounting to losses would be most pronounced to the an estimated 3.9 million tonnes in 2028 relative baseline. Again, because such substantial losses to the in a rise in the world reference world market would result countries would receive in unaffected price, producers the baseline projection, this would lead to a loss of an this would lead to a loss the baseline projection, globally by 2028. Assuming hectares estimated 160 000 imply this would per hectare, an average of 1.5 workers approximately 240 000 employment for the loss of direct the volume, terms of production banana workers. In in a 2.8 million tonne or 2 percent would result loss area by 2028. Since in global banana production reduction decline in world the supply, reduced markets would ration rise in the global would induce a 9.2 percent production bananas by 2028, contingent on the price for reference cause prices to inelastic demand for bananas, which would would fall. As further illustrated than production rise more would rise to partially 2, global trade, which in Figure supply in affected compensate for shortages in domestic over the by 3 percent increase countries, would producing baseline by 2028. equation of the model was shifted in linearly increasing in linearly increasing the model was shifted equation of countries for 2028 in each of the 2019 to steps from area at the assumed arriving provided, are which data 1. Figure as displayed in losses by 2028, 15 Commodity Focus 18

lower volumeofbananas,consumers wouldspend Globally, onaverage,while consumingalmosta2-percent costs toconsumersinallregions wouldincrease (Figure 6). suppliers from thisregion. translate intoconsiderablyhigherexportrevenues for exports from LatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanwould in 2028.Inconjunctionwithelevatedprices,therise in anestimatedvolumereduction of370000tonnes main importersofbananas,wouldmeanwhilerise,resulting absence ofTR4.Importpricesindevelopedcountries,the 1.1 milliontonnesperyearmore thanitwouldhaveinthe demand, Asiawouldbeobligedtoimportapproximately consequences ofanunabatedspread ofTR4. under thisscenario,highlightingtheseverely damaging

C omsiitousdtos Figure 4.Scenariochangein bananaexportsby2028 C omsiitousdtos Figure 5.Scenariochangeinbananaimportsby2028 As displayedinFigure 5,inorder tosatisfyinternal On accountoftheresulting higherprices,theeconomic NOVEMBER 2019 FOOD OUTLOOK od od oi oi ic t ic t ti mic ti mic Ci Ci d t d t si si ot ic idd st ot ic idd st d d od od

from highervolumesofshipments athigherunitvalues. correspondingly, capture higherexportrevenues resulting increase production. Unaffected exportingcountrieswould, caused byTR4,andwouldadditionallyreceive incentivesto from thehigherpricesinducedbyglobalarea losses Meanwhile, producers inunaffected countrieswould gain border controls designedtoprotect domesticproducers. consumer costscouldrisesignificantlyasa result ofpossible transmit across borders. Inaffected producing countries, rising costsduetohigherprices,asmarketeffects would Consumers inallcountrieswithopenmarketswouldface degrees spread contingentontheinternal ofdisease. in thebananasectoraffected countries,atvarying would entailconsiderablelossofincomeandemployment a 3.2-percent increase from thebaselinepriceby2028. comparatively lowandpricetransmissionhigh,resulting in markets, where priceelasticitiesforbananastendtobe impact wouldbefeltbyconsumersindevelopedcountry have underthebaselinescenario.Regionally, theworst 1.8 percent more onbananasby2028thantheywould in globalbananaexports,the specificoutcomeofthe importance oftheLatinAmerica andCaribbeanregion more rapidlyorfurtherafield.Inparticular, giventhe into significantlylargereffects shouldthediseasespread banana supplyandworld marketscouldtranslate scenario, implyingthatthepotentialimpactonworld postulations ofthesimulationassumealow-spread would haveonglobalbananamarkets.Theunderlying reaching repercussions thatanunmitigatedspread ofTR4 The simulationresults suggestively illustratethelikelyfar- MITIGATING THETHREAT OFTR4 expenditures onbananas by2028 Figure 6.Percentage changeinconsumer Percentage changefrombaselinein2028 0 1 2 3 4 The projections suggestthatafurtherspread ofTR4 W W orld orld Developing Developing Africa Africa Other Latin America LAC Caribbean and the Asia Asia MENA North Africa Middle East and Developed Developed Commodity Focus 19 In 17 FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2019 Strengthened international collaboration, particularly Strengthened 18 Markets and open trade display considerable potential considerable potential open trade display Markets and to four different An assessment of the economic returns www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iaea-fao-help-develop-bananas-resistant-to- major-fungal-disease cavendish-cultivars/ www.banana-networks.org/Bapnet/2016/02/22/fusarium-wilt-resistant- with regards to enhanced data collection and information to enhanced data collection and information with regards awareness, sharing, will further support improved and containment of Fusarium wilt TR4 and prevention global banana production resilient be conducive to more systems. to mitigate global economic costs of a greater spread spread costs of a greater global economic to mitigate force of trade as a balancing the role of TR4, given described, As previously and demand. between supply largely countries would in unaffected higher production countries. in affected production compensate for lower costs can only national and global welfare both However, Closing contained if open trade is maintained. be efficiently costs of trade would rapidly raise the economic to borders markets. As such, those developed the disease in domestic in banana on a high net import position countries that are TR4 on research in investing from trade would benefit consumers and mitigation, since the impact on prevention high. markets would be relatively in developed country net exporting countries stand to benefit from Similarly, management strategies, disease investments in effective will enable exporters to as containment of disease spread market access. increased benefit from et conducted by Scheerer investments banana research crop al. (2018) suggests that investments in integrated the development and disease management, as well as in Fusarium- of either conventional or genetically modified yield the highest internal banana cultivars, would resistant options. The potential of of the assessed rates of return in managing epidemics banana cultivars Fusarium-resistant experiences of TR4 also seems evident in the progressive farms. with somaclone varieties on some commercial conjunction with stringently imposed biosecurity measures, measures, conjunction with stringently imposed biosecurity eradication and on- including early detection, effective TR4-resistant farm quarantine, the planting of the partially Culture Variants somaclonal Giant Cavendish Tissue appears to have significantly aided in counteracting losses TR4. Recent advances in the development of fully from Cavendish varieties using chemical Fusarium-resistant mutagenesis techniques or gamma radiation may offer from holistic solution to abating the threat an even more TR4. 17 18 Governments of producing countries Governments of producing 16 In the worst case scenario, a wide spread of TR4 in Latin a wide spread In the worst case scenario, In view of the wide-ranging potential ramifications Dr Charles Staver, Bioversity International, Montpellier, France Bioversity International, Montpellier, Dr Charles Staver, have a key role to play in mitigating the spread of TR4 the spread to play in mitigating have a key role emerged, it has already and managing the disease where on smallholder particularly in view of its potential impact banana farmers and workers employed in the industry. of the capacity-development and Close co-ordination extension activities of all concerned national institutions policies, will be beneficial to the development of proper the that address and strategic measures regulations National way. challenges of TR4 in a comprehensive support schemes drawn up in strategic collaboration to assist in the stakeholders and designed with different as implementation of adequate biosecurity measures, systems well as in the facilitation of diversified production that have shown to be less susceptible to TR4 infection that systems, may serve as responses than monocropping Such compensating or support can alleviate the problem. schemes may further contribute to containment of the not of farmers problem disease, by easing the moral hazard properly. infected plantations and not treating reporting impact on global markets would hinge on whether the hinge on whether global markets would impact on can be contained of TR4 in Colombia outbreak recent not the disease would the best case scenario, or not. In impact on global in no significant resulting further, spread over here presented the projections from markets diverging the next decade. would have a considerable America and the Caribbean trade, food security and the economic economic impact on as well as countries in the region, wellbeing of producing in other exporting countries and consumers on producers of The potential repercussions in importing countries. concern organic of even greater to infection by TR4 are since organic agricultural practices banana production, classical do not permit genetic modifications, leaving cultivars as the only option of disease-resistant breeding alarming for the for adaptation. This would be particularly organic bananas that border countries of main producing Colombia, notably Peru and Ecuador. markets, the on both conventional and organic banana TR4 in Colombia necessitates elevated of outbreak recent not only in Latin America vigilance in the banana sector, The expertise of a and the Caribbean, but also globally. banana future leading plant pathologist suggests that who are viable for growers may only become production management techniques advanced able to implement more investments into and financially sustain significantly higher disease prevention. 16 Commodity Focus 20 Peterson, E.&Orden, D. 2006.LinkingRiskandEconomic Pemsl, D.E.&Staver, C.2014.Strategicassessmentof Ordonez N,SeidlMF, Waalwijk C,Drenth A,Kilian May, S.&Plaza,G.1958.TheUnitedFruitCompanyin Cook, D.C.,Taylor, A.S.,Meldrum,R.&Drenth, A. Chen, X.,Dong,T., Huang,Y. &Yi, G.2013.Socio- Aquino, A.P., Bandoles,G.G.&Lim,V.A.A. 2013.R&D Alston, J.M.,Norton,G.W., Pardey, P. 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